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    Technology

    Finding MH370

    An investigative podcast about the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370. www.deepdivemh370.com

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    Copyright: © Jeff Wise

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    Latest Episodes:
    Confusing the Enemy [S2Ep14 Audio] Aug 23, 2024
    Show notes

    Understanding MH370 requires understanding how strategic planners think. One of the most important concepts in strategic thinking today is the decision loop, which is a way of describing how people gather information, use it to understand their situation, then decide what to do and act upon that decision. This process is sometime referred to as the OODA loop (for “observe, orient, decided, act”) after the formulation by the influential American strategist John Boyd.

    To discuss the decision loop, and its role in maneuver warfare, we’re joined by Thomas Withington of the Royal United Services Institute, who recently published a fascinating article entitled “Manoeuvre Warfare and the Electromagnetic Spectrum.” Later in the show, we’ll discuss audience reaction to the UFO episode and talk about an exciting new idea for gathering Lepas barnacle data.


    Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe

    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.


    Let's Talk About UFOs [S2Ep13 audio] Aug 16, 2024
    Show notes

    In recent months one of the most viral pieces of MH370-related content has been a video that purports to show the airplane being surrounded by a trio of UFOs, which then escort it through some kind of wormhole or interdimensional portal. The video has been tirelessly promoted by a man named Ashton Forbes who has developed a whole elaborate patter to explain how the video came to be.

    On its face, the whole thing is ridiculous. For one thing, UFOs aren’t real — or, if they are, they’ve never so casually revealed themselves as they do in this video. And interdimensional portals aren’t real, either, except in Marvel movies. Yet for a great many people, the videos seem seem utterly real. They think that Ashton Forbes has solved the mystery of MH370.

    The videos have gotten so much traction that various debunkers have taken it upon themselves to demonstrate their fraudulence, for instance by tracking down the original snippet of video game that the wormhole effect was cadged from. But these debunking efforts never seem to work; Ashton Forbes simply responds by claiming that the debunkers have themselves been debunked. He says so with unreserved confidence. For those who want to believe, he seems very convincing.

    From my perspective, it’s futile to try to push back against someone like Ashton Forbes by trying to show that the video is fake. People will continue to believe him because they want to believe the things that he’s telling them.

    Are we helpless, though? I don’t think we are, entirely. For one thing, we can try to understand the dynamic of the misinformation peddler so that we can navigate today’s complicated information space more effectively. To help me in that effort I’m joined in today’s episode by David Dunbar, co-author of the book “Debunking 9/11 Myths: Why Conspiracy Theories Can't Stand Up to the Facts.” In years of dealing with believers in delusional ideas about the destruction of the World Trade Center, David has learned a lot about the emotional forces that drive true believers. Among other things, we discuss how to distinguish conspiracy theories from actual conspiracies and delusional beliefs from well-informed ideas that can lead us toward knowledge.


    Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe

    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.


    Gathering New Evidence [S2Ep12 audio] Aug 09, 2024
    Show notes

    It’s been years since anyone’s reported finding a new piece of MH370 debris, and even longer since anyone has come up with any other evidence of what happened to the plane.

    But that doesn’t mean that it isn’t possible to collect new evidence.

    In today’s podcast, I’m joined by Andy Sybrandy, the founder and president of Pacific Gyre Inc., a company that makes sensors and telemetry for ocean data collection. He helped develop the SVP drifters that are the mainstay of NOAA’s Global Drifter Program, which has dispatched thousands of buoys to constantly circulate throughout the world’s oceans so scientists can develop models of global currents.

    Andy and I discuss a plan that I’ve been developing to shed light on some key mysteries surrounding crucial pieces of evidence in the case — namely, why the pieces of debris collected in the western Indian Ocean floated the way they did and why the marine life growing on them was so unexpected.

    By outfitting a 777 flaperon with the kind of sensors that Andy makes, we could determine whether the debris evidence is truly paradoxical, or there is a perfectly good reason for why it looks the way it does.

    In today’s episode we also revive a feature we haven’t don in a while, Community Radar. Today we’re discussing a comment from reader collinsm999 suggesting that an accident I mentioned in last week’s episode, TWA 800, was not due to an accidental electrical fault but to a shootdown by a missile.


    Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe

    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.


    S2Ep11 How The Plane Broke [audio] Aug 02, 2024
    Show notes

    Black box data is the ne plus ultra of aircraft accident investigation. But it is not the only kind of physical evidence. Pieces of debris—in particular, their dents and fractures — can tell a vivid story in themselves.

    When a plane crashes, it’s common for all different parts to exhibit different kinds of failure. Imagine a plane whose wingtip hits a tree. The impact would crush the leading edge of the wingtip—compression failure—and then wrench the wing backwards from the body of the plane, causing a tension failure at the forward wing root and compression failure at the aft end.

    By collecting many pieces of debris after a crash, investigators can place the mechanical failures in a chronological order to tell a story that makes sense, much as you might arrange magnetic words on a refrigerator.


    Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe

    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.


    S2Ep10 Fighting Over Noise [audio] Jul 26, 2024
    Show notes

    In episode 6 we discussed a recent paper by Usama Kadri that examined whether the crash of MH370 should have been detected by a network of underwater microphones. Kadri argued that it should have been easily detected. The paper received a lot of attention in the mainstream press. Among the community of marine hydroacoustic researchers, it stirred some consternation. In today’s episode Dr David Dall'Osto of the University of Washington explains his misgivings about Kadri's work.

    In the earlier episode, titled “Tracking the Sound of a Plane Crash,” we talked about how Kadri’s analysis presented something of a “Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-time” situation, because while Kadri found an event that was similar in timing and location to the presumed crash site of MH370, it wasn’t close enough to really be a plausible match. Since earlier in the paper Kadri had made a compelling case that if a plane had gone in the water it should have been detected, based on historical analogues, then the fact that there was no good match implied (I argued) that the plane hadn’t impacted the ocean.

    Kadri’s paper got a lot of attention in the popular press, which for the most part presented his work uncritically. But as I’ve argued over and over again, science isn’t just about retrieving data and interpreting it. It’s about arguing about the data and what it means. Because all of us are imperfect. We make mistakes, we leap to unsupported conclusions. Only by hashing things out collectively can we make sense of the world around us.

    Among those critical of Kadri’s paper is David Dall’Osto, a senior research scientist at the University of Washington Applied Physics Laboraory. He studies hydroacoustic detection and last year coauthored a presentation with Alec Duncan of Curtin University in Perth, Australia, called “Revisiting the acoustic detections made in the Indian Ocean at the time of the loss of MH370.”

    There were three main questions I put to Dr Dall’Osto. First, did he agree with Kadri’s conclusion that hydrophone network had historically been able to detect even low-speed, low-energy airplane crashes? Secondly, did he agree that the event that Kadri highlighted in his paper might be associated with MH370? And finally, did he agree with Kadri’s proposal that we try to nail down the sensitivity of the hydroacoustic network by deploying bombs (or some other way of creating noise) near MH370’s presumed crash location?

    It turns out that not only does Dr Dall’Osto have deep concerns about Kadri’s paper, he has reason to question whether search officials are even looking in the right part of the ocean.


    Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe

    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.


    S2Ep9 What 'Ripley' Can Tell Us About MH370 [audio] Jul 19, 2024
    Show notes

    MH370 is a mystery, but more specifically, it’s a murder mystery. It was an action carried out with a perpetrator with nefarious intent. That’s a lens that we can use to gain perspective on what happened.

    As you know this is a podcast all about trying to understand aviation’s most perplexing mystery. We not only talk about the evidence of the case in great detail with the help of leading experts, but we also try to find new ways to frame what we know, to see if by looking at the facts from a different viewpoint we can gain new insight.

    In Episode 28 of Season 1 we looked at the case from the lens of stage magic, which uses a practical understanding of applied psychology to get inside the audience’s perceptual feedback loop in order to fool them.

    In today’s episode we’re going to look at the case from a similar but somewhat different perspective, that of the criminal deceiver, who like the magician is always probing his targets for perceptual weaknesses, hoping to find or widen a gap between reality and what the subject thinks is real.

    Because one thing about MH370 is crystal clear: the perpetrators, whoever they were, outwitted the officials who set out to figure out their deed.

    It might not surprise you to learn that I’m always thinking about MH370, and I find relevant tidbits everywhere I look. Recently I was watching the Netflix series “Ripley,” which is a retelling of the story of the con artist and murderer Tom Ripley written by Patricia Highsmith in the 1950s.

    The new show stars Andrew Scott as Tom Ripley, and I found the show wonderfully stylish and entertaining. If you’ve already seen the 1999 movie with Matt Damon you’ll already know the plot but I don’t think will spoil the fun. All the same if you haven’t seen the new show and would like to, you might want to pause the podcast now and then come back to it afterwards because a lot of spoliers lie ahead.

    Anyway, as I was watching and enjoying the show I was really overwhelmed by the parallels between the web of deception Tom Ripley weaves and the strange set of clues that we have in the case of MH370.

    I wanted to talk about this with someone who is an expert in the genre of murder mysteries, so I reached out to Jackie Raimondi, the co-host of a delightful podcast called Killer Fun, in which Jackie and her co-host Christy Norman watch and break down crime shows. Jackie agreed to come on the show and talk to me about Ripley and the art of weaving a web. Jackie is also a psychologist and brought a wealth of insight about real-world human behavior.

    I had a lot of fun talking with her and I think that you will enjoy the conversation, too.


    Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe

    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.


    S2Ep8 Planning the Hack [audio] Jul 12, 2024
    Show notes

    In Episode 5, we discussed how MH370's captain might have planned an elaborate murder/suicide in a way that would create the body of evidence we have today. In this episode, we re-run the exercise from a different perspective, guessing at the methods and motivations of a Advanced Persistant Threat actor.


    Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe

    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.


    S2Ep7 The Threat Space [audio] Jul 05, 2024
    Show notes

    In 2011, the US was flying one of its most advanced drones over Iran when they lost control. To their shock and embarrassment, they came to realize that the Iranians had used Russian electronic warfare technology to take over control of its navigation system. They seized the drone, decrypted its secrets, and reverse-engineered its technology to build their own version. It was a painful lesson — but have we learned it well enough to avoid such catastrophes in the future?


    Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe

    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.


    S2Ep6 Listening for MH370 [audio] Jun 28, 2024
    Show notes

    A new paper published by a researcher at Cardiff University in the UK explores whether the hydrophone network maintained by a nuclear test-ban monitor should have detected the ocean crash of MH370, and analyses the signal that seems to be the most likely to have come from the missing plane.


    Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe

    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.


    S2Ep5 Making the Plan, part 1 [audio] Jun 21, 2024
    Show notes

    Whoever took MH370 did so in a lightning coup de main that showed decisiveness and a sophisticated knowledge of airspace, air traffic control procedure, and avionics. Formulating the plan would have required substantial planning. In today's episode, we explore how the plane's captain, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, might have laid the groundwork for such an operation. (In a future episode we'll look at how hijackers outside the cockpit might have laid their plans.) I'm extremely fortunate to be joined by the experienced 777 captain and prolific YouTuber Ron Rogers, who makes videos about a wide range of aviation topics, including classic aircraft and his own contemporary flying adventure.


    Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe

    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.


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