Stay ConnectedFed Watch is a weekly podcast with Bitcoin Magazine’s Podcast Editor CK and Historian/Economist Ansel Lindner of Bitcoinand Markets.com.
Ck and Ansel interview the best analysts, traders, and thinks in both Macro economics and Bitcoin as well as give the audience their takes of important news and press conferences in the macro space.
This is the perfect podcast to learn about and stay on top of Bitcoin, Macro Economics, and the world at large.
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Guest: Joe Carlasare
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Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a true rebellious bitcoin nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I sit down for an interview with commercial litigator and co-host of the Inside Bitcoin podcast, Joe Carlasare. Joe is a no nonsense analyst of bitcoin, the bond market, and monetary dynamics. He is known for saying that all our models for bitcoin are dead, and I thought this would be a good opportunity to get him on and hash out some new narratives for bitcoin, especially being that we see eye-to-eye on many things in macro. Joe is also appearing in an upcoming series with Bitcoin TINA and CK about the future path and new models for bitcoin valuation, which should be out very soon on Bitcoin Magazine.
Joe and I start by breaking down the yield curve and the importance of the recent inversions. With the 10-year US Treasury yield falling under the 2-year, the curve is “officially” inverted, and signals that the deepest most sophisticated market in the world is pricing in an economic downturn. In other words, there is a landmine in the near future that we can glimpse by looking at the yield curve.
We also discussed the impotence of the Federal Reserve and cult-like mythology surrounding the Federal Reserve. Joe is an adherent to the Eurodollar framework of the financial system, and as such does not believe the central banks are central to their economies. What we have today is a bank centered system, and the mechanism of central bank policy is through expectation management, not cold hard supply and demand as the mythology would have us believe.
We have a wide-ranging discussion on commodities, the future path of QE and CPI, Japanification, and the dollar shortage. We finally arrive at trying to form some new narratives in bitcoin that will be sustainable in the monetary reality we are experiencing.
This is a great episode and I hope to get Joe back on so we can dig
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I go through what’s coming up for the Fed, tons of macro charts, the spike in Credit Suisse CDS, BIS news about making bitcoin a reserve asset banks can hold, and take some Q&A from Twitter.
You can access the slide deck with charts here. Enjoy.
We will be back to our regular time next week, Tuesdays at 3:00 P.M. Eastern time on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel. Mark your calendars!
More details BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed102
Slide deck with charts https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Kz6NiwJaI9fhRN6vnLPnf3uNVEgQ3ssSx2h_zW3sdvo/edit?usp=sharing
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners.
Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I tackle a question CK put to me in FED 100, namely, why does the Euro face fragmentation risk and the dollar doesn’t? My answer on the last show was sub-par, so I thought I’d take it up again, this time with more nuance. When evaluating the dollar’s fragmentation risk, we can look at it from an internal perspective of fragmentation within the 50 States, or an external perspective of a fragmentation of the global dollar system. I answer the question in this episode from both angles, and also explain how bitcoin becomes a “must have” money in the future.
We livestream most of our shows on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel on Tuesdays at 3:00 P.M. Eastern time. Mark your calendars!
Here is some further reading on internal differences:
Academic paper https://sci-hub.ru/10.1257/aer.103.3.125
Associated LSE blog post https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/08/26/the-us-may-show-the-eu-the-way-forward-on-fiscal-integration/
Historic defense/security costs https://eh.net/encyclopedia/military-spending-patterns-in-history/
Fiscal politics in the Euro Area https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/wp1718.ashx
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Charts for episode can be found on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed100
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover developments in Japan in regards to Yield Curve Control, in the US in regards to growth and inflation forecasts, and in Europe in regards to the concern about fragmentation. At the end of the episode, we celebrate the 100th episode of Fed Watch by reviewing some of the guests and calls we have made throughout the show's history.
The economic troubles in Japan are legendary at this point. They have suffered through several lost decades of low growth and low inflation, addressed by the best monetary policy tools of the day, by some of the best experts in economics (maybe that was the mistake). None of it has worked, but let's take a minute to review how we got here.
Japan entered their recession/depression back in 1991 after their giant asset bubble burst. Since that time, Japanese economic growth has been averaging roughly 1% a year, with low unemployment, and very low dynamism. It's not negative GDP growth, but it's the bare minimum to have an economic pulse.
To address these issues, Japan became the first major central bank to launch Quantitative Easing (QE) in 2001. This is where the central bank, Bank of Japan (BOJ) would buy government securities from the banks in an attempt to correct any balance sheet problems, clearing the way for those banks to lend (aka print money).
That first attempt at QE failed miserably, and in fact, caused growth to fall from 1.1% down to 1%. The Japanese were convinced
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Charts for episode can be found on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed99
If you enjoy this content please SHARE, LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes if you listen!
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I listen and react to highlights from this month’s two central bank press conferences, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde. Central banks are one of the most misunderstood institutions in our modern world. Many analysts simply tell you what the Fed or the ECB thinks and what they do to disrupt the global economy, but on our show, we like to give you primary source material from which you can start to form your own educated opinion.
We live stream most of our shows on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel on Tuesdays at 3pm eastern. Mark your calendars!
Chairman Powell’s comments were highlighted by a few narratives. These are simply what they say they are doing, not our analysis.
The main metric guiding the Federal Reserve’s course of rate hikes is CPI and “inflation” expectations. There are several ways to measure this, the Fed uses consumer surveys. This is a critical distinction between surveys and market-derived expectations, because surveys will not distinguish s
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, I get to sit down with Tone Vays, a true bitcoiner and long time price and macro analyst in Bitcoin. Our discussion ranges from the current conditions, to Bitcoin cycles, to broader macro topics including the state of Europe, Euro, and US politics. You can follow Tone on Twitter, instagram and YouTube.
You can find the charts for this episode on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed98. And watch the live stream on Bitcoin Magazine’s channel.
In the first segment of the podcast, Tone talks about the psychological state of the Bitcoin market. Paraphrasing:
“I was around for the last two bear markets. 2013 was the classic bubble chart, you were mentally prepared for what’s to come. 2017, again, the ICOs, it was an unreasonable exponential rise, so you were mentally prepared. I wasn’t mentally prepared for this one. Because, when the top came in April 2021, we had an incredible amount of good news. Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey leaving Twitter to go all in on Bitcoin with Square (Block), El Salvador, then El Salvador buying bitcoin.
“That turned into a sell the news event. 50% correction, no big deal. Everyone was mentally fine with it. Then, this is where it’s all about your mental state. When we went back and broke that top, in November, that was THE breakout. Everyone thought we were going higher, I thought we were going higher. That fakeout in November was mentally brutal. We crashed back the $30,000 low, broke down to $20,000, and over the last 3-6 months people have been very very concerned.
“This prolonged move has made people tighten their belts. Mentally, they feel like they were cheated and don’t think bitcoin should be at these lows. Bitcoin was built for this world we are seeing right now with all the uncertainty. They are stealing bank accounts from not just individuals, like in Canada, but from sovereign countries. Bitcoin was built for this, but the price keeps going down. People are starting to throw in the towel. Everyone is saying lower, lower, lower. This is where I have to believe that the majority is always wrong.”
I asked Tone about bitcoin valuation models and 4-year cycles, whether they are all broken and if we need to find a new model.
He says he thinks models always fail. Stock-to-flow is theoretically correct in Tone’s mind, but it cannot be successfully used as a technical indicator. As for the 4-year halving cycle, Tone believes that it is partly due to hype and partly due to actual supply shocks.
That is my position here on Fed Watch as well. It has its own hype cycle, completely separate from the overall bitcoin hype. Kind of similar to how altcoins try to hype their hard fork upgrades, bitcoin accomplishes that naturally through the halving.
However, I think the hype is lesse
Supply Chains by the Numbers - FED 97
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Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, I discuss supply and demand, demand destruction, supply chain bottlenecks, shipping and inventory in the US. I take a look at a few representative charts you can find below, including lumber futures, lithium futures, Baltic Dry Index, 40-foot container rates, US inventory glut, and others.
The below simple graph shows supply versus demand during a supply shock and follow on demand destruction. What we are about to see in the US is a huge spike in demand destruction, so the demand curve will shift to the left. This will cause a dramatic lowering of prices and shrinking of the economy.
Don’t be worried though, because most people can’t afford to keep the economy (demand) at current levels, and a lowering of demand will allow people to reallocate and get into a better place.
These are a few charts I use to show the relaxation of supply chain problems, and to demonstrate that prices will normalize.
Lumber is coming down.
Lithium is a market that combines many disparate aspects of the economy right now, all unique affected in this crisis: supply chains since it is mined mainly in Australia, Chile, and China; semiconductors since batteries are used in electronics; and electric cars whose demand is affected by oil prices and globalists agendas. As you can see, lithium prices are coming down for the first time in over a year.
The Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) is the rate for bulk raw materials like steel and coal. It too, is coming down, and far past the peak of mid-2021.
Freightos is an index for 40-foot container shipping rates. It is falling off a cliff, despite the China lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing.
The following charts can be found in a recent post by Jeff Snider on Alhambra Partners blog. It shows the unprecedented increase in inventories that has occurred in the US over the last 6 months. It is already starting to affect retailers like Target, who this week announced stopping purchasing orders and slashing prices to fight glutted inventory.
What happens when demand softens (as it has been) and inventories start to get liquidated. Prices will fall dramatically.
This was the largest and fastest increase in inventories on record in the US. Compared to other periods of big inventory gains, like 2003-2005, which was a 7% increase over 20 months, this spike is 11.5% in only 6 months.
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, Christian and I sit down with Dylan LeClair, Head of Market Research at Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Each week, he and Sam Rule, write nearly daily updates for subscribers, and once a month they release a large bitcoin market report. That is what we are covering for the most part in today’s episode, Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s May 2022 Report.
You can find the slide deck we use for this episode here, or you can see all the charts at the end of this post.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
Before we get into the awesome charts brought by Dylan, I want to get an idea of where he sees bitcoin in its market cycle timing. I ask, somewhat facetiously, if we are in a bear market, because we are definitely not in a typical 80-90% drawdown.
Dylan responds by saying we are in a classic bear market, not necessarily a classic bitcoin bear market. He points out that the upswing of this cycle didn’t have the classic parabolic blow-off top we’ve seen previously in bitcoin, as well as there being more technical and fundamental support in the mid-$20k’s up to $30,000, so drawdown pressure will also likely be limited. LeClair also adds that the Average User Cost Basis was hit by the wick to the recent lows. All in all, there is significant support under the price, and it remains to be seen if there is enough bear momentum to break to new lows.
Lastly, on the market cycle timing questions, Dylan points out a very underappreciated market development, that being the collateral type on exchanges has mostly switched from bitcoin in previous cycles, to now being stablecoins like Tether and USDC. In other words, the dominant trading pairs and cash deposits on exchanges have changed from bitcoin to stablecoins. In the past, the most important trading pair for any altcoin was versus BTC, that has changed to being versus a stablecoin like USDT. This is a monumental shift in market dynamics and will likely lead to much more stable prices for bitcoin, because less bitcoin will be forced to liquidate in the hyper-speculative shitcoin bubbles.
“This is Coinbase spot volume, being the dominant American exchange, and the Perp [perpetual futures] volume aggregated over a bunch of different derivatives exchanges. What we can see is various volume spikes. Historically, when bitcoin is trading hands in that size, signals some sort of market top or bottom, some significant change in market structure.” - Dylan LeClair
The next chart shows the difference in market structure due to stablecoins. Back in the summer of 2021 sell off, Dylan says that 70% of the derivative market was still collateralized by bitcoin, today, it is much much smaller than that. Therefore, we should expect there to be fewer liquidations in bitcoin when shitcoin bubbles pop, and that’s exactly what we see.
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, we focus on important macro charts. We cover Bitcoin’s chart, currencies like the dollar, the euro, the Hong Kong dollar, and gold, and energy commodities. We don’t have time to get to all the charts I prepared, because the live show has time constraints. I will attempt to get a Part 2 out this week, to cover the rest of my commodity charts, as well as supply chains and shipping costs. You can find the slide deck of charts here.
Other topics covered in today’s episode include Biden and Powell’s meeting yesterday, where I try to flesh out the importance of this Wall Street (Powell) vs Globalists (Biden) showdown; and we get into a couple of things from Davos last week, particularly the Kissinger comments about Ukraine.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
First currency up is Bitcoin. I discuss the recent pop in price on Memorial Day in the US, and how it is simultaneous with a growing bullish divergence in the indicators.
However, I also go back in time to roughly one year ago, when there was a very similar situation. In June 2021, there was a bullish divergence in these two indicators and a breakout of a descending wedge. That move was a fake out, cut short by the Grayscale (GBTC) unlock wave in July. The current situation is similar on the chart, but not similar in the fundamentals. I just wanted to point out a previous example where a breakout like this week failed.
I make an effort to dislodge the bitcoin rise = dollar collapse false narrative here. The dollar and bitcoin can rise together due to deflationary pressures pushing people to cash and away from counterparty risk.
Next up is the dollar. On the live stream, I show the following chart and discuss how we could be headed for a new higher range on the dollar. Perhaps, we see another 5-7 years of the DXY in a range of 100-110, kind of like how it jumped into the 90-100 range in 2015.
For many who don’t like the DXY because it is too narrow (Euro 57.6%, Yen 13.6%, and Pound 11.9%), I provide a chart of the trade-weighted dollar that includes 30+ currencies including Yuan and Mexican peso.
In the below chart, we see the same consolidation beginning, but the high that the dollar achieved (excluding the corona crash highs) is a new high. I think this symbolizes a stair step function higher for the trade-weighted dollar as well.
Remember, a strong dollar is the Fed failing and it also provides massive stress to the rest of the world’s economy.
Source: FRED
The Euro is nearly the inverse of the DXY. It also shows a recent breakout, but in this case downward. If the dollar rally is to consolidate before heading higher, the Euro is going to consolidate before heading lower. One thing is for sure, the Euro has broken its two decade support trend line, it’s in big tr
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, we get interactive with the livestream team, talking about the history of Davos and the World Economic Forum, as well as getting into some Q&A about my Federal Reserve predictions.
This week was a slightly slower news cycle in macro and bitcoin, so I took the opportunity to begin a new series of discussing the history of important international institutions, like central banks, the IMF, and this week the World Economic Forum. The history portion take up about 50% of the show this week, and the rest is the probing Q&A mentioned above.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
Davos is the name and place for the yearly meeting of the World Economic Forum. Originally called the European Management Forum, it was founded in 1971 by a business professor in Geneva, the infamous Klaus Schwab. That should be a familiar year to bitcoiners, because it is the same year President Nixon took the US off the remnant of the gold standard.
At first, Davos was a small conference of European businessmen discussing Klaus Schwab’s ideas of “stakeholder capitalism''. Compared to unbridled capitalism, this new stakeholder idea expanded the ethical duty of the corporation from serving customers and shareholders to also serving employees and suppliers in a socially responsible way. Schwab took this idea further down the slippery slope outlining an ethical duty to the community and “society”, as well.
Shareholder capitalism is simply a subtle way to make capitalism more socialist.
In 1987, the European Management Forum changed its name to the World Economic Forum and its yearly meeting to Davos.
One would expect an institution as famous and well-regarded as the World Economic Forum would have many achievements to its name. However, it is a very short list, even after 50 years! It claims a hand in stopping a Turkish/Greek war in 1987, a role in German reunification, and helping to end apartied in South Africa by hosting a handshake between Nelson Mandella and Frederik de Klerk in 1992. And that’s about it. Recently, they have claimed some victories on the environmentalism front, too.
Then what has the WEF been up to all these years? This is where it gets interesting.
In 2004, Klaus Schwab created the Forum of Young Global Leaders. It is a program that graduates roughly 100 rising young leaders from around the world who are destined to high offices, either in government, business or culture. The program boasts 1400 alumni that include Presidents and Prime Ministers, along with some of the wealthiest, most influential people in the world, like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg.
These young leaders are indoctrinated into the WEF’s brand of Marxism, which you will commonly hear called “globalism”, the modern incarnation of stakeholder capitalism. You know something is pushing a global Marxist agenda when you hear terms like, “socially responsible”, “global governance”, “climate a
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