Eye On The Market

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**Eye On The Market**

Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

Latest Episodes:

The Rasputin Effect Aug 02, 2023

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Global resilience to higher rates

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Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride Jul 18, 2023

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The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

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Letters to the Editor Jun 14, 2023

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Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

Too Long at the Fair May 23, 2023

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Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while

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The Places We Could Go Apr 25, 2023

Show notes

Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. Stable copper prices are one exception but its usefulness as a business cycle indicator is affected by China’s reopening and the copper intensity of the energy transition. Click here for a chart collection on these leading indicators.

Frankenstein’s Monster Apr 10, 2023

Show notes

Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.

Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence Mar 28, 2023

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Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to. This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand outlook, the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power, the scramble for critical minerals, the improving economics of energy storage and heat pumps, the transmission quagmire, energy from municipal waste, carbon sequestration, a whydrogen update, the Russia-China energy partnership, methane tracking and some futuristic energy ideas that you can just ignore, for now.

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Winter Heating Feb 21, 2023

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The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans.

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American Gothic Jan 24, 2023

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The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it

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The End of the Affair Jan 01, 2023

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The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins

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