Eurodollar University

Latest Episodes:

Reading AnalystDC: The Fed's Standing Repo Facility [Ep. 123, Macropiece Theater] Oct 11, 2021

Show notes

AnalystDC considers three developments in late-July 2021 that'll affect money markets for years to come: the Fed's Standing Repo Facility, the Group of Thirty recommendations and the Alternative Reference Rates Committte recommendations. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHO----------
AnalystDC, the anonymous enjoyer of illiquid credit, bond posting and money markets. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Deadlines" by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound.

----------WHAT----------
Chartbook #12: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-12

----------WHERE----------
DC's Substack: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/
DC's Twitter: https://twitter.com/AnalystDC

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
David's Art: https://davidparkins.com/

---------HEAR IT----------
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The Volcker Myth [Ep. 122, Eurodollar University] Oct 11, 2021

Show notes

PART 01: The US dollar is rising in value against a collection of currencies (except one). It's disconfirming evidence of sustainable economic recovery; it implies strained USD-funding. And there's still that one key, stable currency - unusually stable; suspiciously stable.

PART 02: We review palladium, copper and iron ore - all metals and minerals that peaked in value in May (lumber too). Some commodities continue to rise in value, specifically energy. How do we reconcile the deflationary/disinflationary former to the inflationary latter? Also, US auto sales.

PART 03: "Despite some eerie echoes, the past is not the best guide to the present," writes The Economist. Jeff Snider agrees, but for entirely different reasons. Stagnation? Yes, definitely. But NOT inflation - despite the clear price increases! Wait, what?

---------SPONSOR----------
Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things, why not listen and hear what they have to say? You could do worse things with your time (i.e. Bloomberg, CNBC, et cetera). Recent readings include thoughts from George Friedman, Lyn Alden, Daniel Oliver, Michael Pettis, the Bank for International Settlements and yes, even Karl Marx.

-----SEE EPISODE 122------
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

-----HEAR EPISODE 122----
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----EP. 122 REFERENCES----
More Dollar Bull: https://bit.ly/3iGt2UJ
(Urjit Patel) Emerging markets face a dollar double whammy: https://on.ft.com/3mr6F6E
What’s The Real Downside To Some of These Key Commodities?: https://bit.ly/3oVIsZd
Is the world economy going back to the 1970s?: https://econ.st/3BmDat5
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

-----------WHO-------------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins, myth spinner. Podcast intro/outro is "Knight's Templar" by Adriel Fair found at Epidemic Sound.

Reading Maroon Macro: A Trade Idea, Shorting CNH [Ep. 121] Oct 09, 2021

Show notes

An increased risk-off sentiment, resulting from the Evergrande drama - among several other factors, has perhaps increased the likelihood, as well as accelerated the timeline, of a CNY devaluation. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHO----------
Maroon Macro, an anonymous global macro hedge fund analyst who is partial to the University of Chicago and writes about the mechanics of the monetary system, financial plumbing, and economic history. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Deadlines" by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound.

----------WHAT----------
Issue #21: Trade Idea – Short CNH: https://bit.ly/3op5bMQ

----------WHERE----------
Maroon's Substack: https://maroonmacro.substack.com/
Maroon's Twitter: https://twitter.com/maroon_macro

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
David's Art: https://davidparkins.com/

Reading The Fed Guy: Wealth (Side)Effects [Ep. 120] Oct 08, 2021

Show notes

An unprecedent increase in household wealth from housing, stocks and cryptocurrencies may have structurally changed the US labor market. The Fed, assuming no structural change, may be running the economy much hotter than they realize. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHO----------
Joseph Wang spent five years as the senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Deadlines" by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound.

----------WHAT----------
Wealth (Side)Effects: https://bit.ly/3ml5CVS

----------WHERE----------
Joseph's Blog: https://fedguy.com/
Joseph's Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
David's Art: https://davidparkins.com/

Reading Michael Pettis: What Does an Evergrande Meltdown Mean for China? [Ep. 119] Oct 07, 2021

Show notes

The impact of Evergrande has caused financial distress to spread faster than Beijing expected, putting pressure on regulators to move quickly to stop the contagion. But they cannot rescue Evergrande’s creditors without also undermining their fight against bad debt. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHO----------
Michael Pettis, Finance Professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at Carnegie-Tsinghua Center. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Deadlines" by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound.

----------WHAT----------
What Does Evergrande Meltdown Mean for China?: https://bit.ly/2Ya9rVl

----------WHERE----------
Michael's Blog: https://www.mpettis.com/
Michael's Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
David's Art: https://davidparkins.com/

Reading Jeff Snider: FOMC 'Let's make it up as we go along!' [Ep. 118, Macropiece Theater] Oct 06, 2021

Show notes

Jay Powell’s Fed portrays the economy in recovery mode and intends to taper monetary accommodation - yet the US dollar has been rising in value for months. Premature celebration? It reminds Jeff Snider of an episode in 2011 when the FOMC guffawed past the monetary graveyard. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHO----------
Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Deadlines" by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound.

----------WHAT----------
'Easing' Monetary Policy Is Missing a Key Component: https://bit.ly/2YobrtC

----------WHERE----------
Jeff's Alhambra Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
Jeff's RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Jeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
David's Art: https://davidparkins.com/

Reading Jeff Snider: 1/3 of US, Canadian Small Businesses Can't Pay Rent [Ep. 117] Oct 05, 2021

Show notes

Recent polling data from Alignable reveals a difficult small-business environment. Three regional Fed surveys confirm the softness. Is it merely the passing Delta-Covid? Or the labor-shortage? Will demand in 2022 be able to meet the oncoming wave of goods orders? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHO----------
Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Deadlines" by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound.

----------WHAT----------
Revisiting The Last Overhang-An Economy Dividing By Inventory And Labor: https://bit.ly/3muwQcO

----------WHERE----------
Jeff's Alhambra Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
Jeff's RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Jeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
David's Art: https://davidparkins.com/

Reading Jeff Snider: Revisiting 2019's Inventory Overhang [Ep. 116] Oct 04, 2021

Show notes

Like the bond market and the yield curve, the inventory situation is most often forward-looking. Powell is tapering and ignoring the potential of an inventory overhang, pretty much the same way as a few years ago. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHO----------
Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "36mm" by Jobii at Epidemic Sound.

----------WHAT----------
Revisiting The Last Overhang: https://bit.ly/3isH5Nk

----------WHERE----------
Jeff's Alhambra Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
Jeff's RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Jeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
David's Art: https://davidparkins.com/

Bonds, Treasury Bonds [Ep. 115] Oct 03, 2021

Show notes

PART 01: US Treasury Bonds have lost a lot of value since August, and especially in the last weeks of September. Is it a taper tantrum? Are foreigners selling lousy Uncle Sam paper? Is it Armageddon (again)? No, this happens—incredibly—'every' August. But why?

PART 02: Since 2011, the US Treasury 10-year bond peaks in value during the summer-to-autumn transition. Ignoring the economic context, whether positive or negative, bonds lose value. They lose value whether central banks are hawkish or dovish. Why? We offer five theories.

PART 03: Financial collateral is indispensable to the modern monetary system. Unfortunately the most pristine collateral, the US Treasury Bill, is in short supply because of the political debt ceiling drama. So, we identify seven warning indicators for acute collateral shortage.

---------SPONSOR----------
Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things. Recent readings include thoughts from George Friedman, Lyn Alden, Daniel Oliver, Michael Pettis, the Bank for International Settlements

-----SEE EPISODE 115------
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

-----HEAR EPISODE 115----
Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
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iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV
Podchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwN
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK
ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb
AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

----EP. 115a REFERENCES---
Finally The Taper Tantrum, Or What’s Wrong With August?: https://bit.ly/2XXJoRb
Maybe More Autumn Than Strictly August: https://bit.ly/3D01Ibt
Some Next Steps To Watch For Scarce Collateral: https://bit.ly/3l3xGxH

-----------WHO-------------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins, licensed to killustrate. Bass-y James-Bond-style podcast intro/outro is "The New Black" by Mary Riddle found at Epidemic Sound.

Reading Michael Pettis: Why the Bezzle Matters to the Economy [Ep. 114] Oct 02, 2021

Show notes

The bezzle is the temporary gap between the perceived value of assets and long-term economic value. Economies at times systematically create bezzle, unleashing substantial economic consequences that economists have rarely understood or discussed. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHAT----------
Why the Bezzle Matters to the Economy: https://bit.ly/3B4T5vO

----------WHERE----------
Michael's Blog: https://www.mpettis.com/
Michael's Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
David's Art: https://davidparkins.com/

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