Establish the Edge Fantasy Football

ETE Projections Special Part 8: NFC East with Ben Gretch Jul 30, 2024

In Part 8 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the NFC East and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 7: AFC East with Ben Gretch Jul 29, 2024

In Part 7 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the AFC East and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 6: NFC North with Ben Gretch Jul 23, 2024

In Part 6 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the NFC North and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 5: AFC North with Ben Gretch Jul 22, 2024

In Part 5 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the AFC North and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 4: NFC West with Ben Gretch Jul 19, 2024

In Part 4 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the NFC West and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 3: AFC West with Ben Gretch Jul 17, 2024

In Part 3 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the AFC West and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 2: AFC South with Ben Gretch Jul 07, 2024

In Part 2 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the AFC South and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 1: NFC South with Ben Gretch Jul 04, 2024

In Part 1 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the NFC South and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

Applying DFS Lessons to Best Ball Jun 12, 2024

Mike Leone of Establish The Run and Erik Beimfohr of Spike Week dissect how you can apply DFS strategy to best ball to make better teams and build stronger portfolios.

Using Historical Data in Best Ball Jun 11, 2024

Mike Leone talks about using historical data to learn about best ball -- how it can help us, its limitations, and why you need to think through it critically.

2024 SuperFlex Rookie Mock Draft Apr 30, 2024

Mike Leone, Anthony Amico, and Evan Silva of Establish The Run conduct a 2-round Mock Draft to help you prepare for your upcoming rookie drafts.

Caleb Williams vs. Marvin Harrison Jr. - Who is This Year's 1.01? Apr 12, 2024

Mike Leone and Anthony Amico discuss two of this year's top prospects, Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr., while also taking a look back at the last three years of rookie drafts.

Week 16 GPP Game Scores with Adam Rauch Dec 22, 2023

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch take a closer look at Week 16's NFL slate with GPPs in mind. They search for the best game environments for stacking and talk through some correlated plays.

Week 13 GPP Game Scores with Adam Rauch Dec 01, 2023

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch take a closer look at Week 13's NFL slate with GPPs in mind. They search for the best game environments for stacking and talk through some correlated plays.

Week 11 GPP Game Scores with Adam Rauch Nov 17, 2023

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch take a closer look at Week 11's NFL slate with GPPs in mind. They search for the best game environments for stacking and talk through some correlated plays.

Week 10 GPP Game Scores with Adam Rauch Nov 10, 2023

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch take a closer look at Week 10's NFL slate with GPPs in mind. They search for the best game environments for stacking and talk through some correlated plays.

Week 8 GPP Game Scores with Adam Rauch Oct 27, 2023

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch take a closer look at Week 8's NFL slate with GPPs in mind. They search for the best game environments for stacking and talk through some correlated plays.

Week 7 GPP Game Scores with Adam Rauch Oct 20, 2023

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch take a closer look at Week 7's NFL slate with GPPs in mind. They search for the best game environments for stacking and talk through some correlated plays.

Week 5 GPP Game Scores with Adam Rauch Oct 06, 2023

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch take a closer look at Week 5's NFL slate with GPPs in mind. They search for the best game environments for stacking and talk through some correlated plays.

Week 3 GPP Game Scores with Adam Rauch Sep 21, 2023

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch take a closer look at Week 3's NFL slate with GPPs in mind. They search for the best game environments for stacking and talk through some correlated plays.

Week 2 GPP Game Scores with Adam Rauch Sep 15, 2023

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch join forces to talk through Week 2's best games from a GPP perspective.
The GPP Game Scores are designed to identify the best game environments for game stacking in GPPs by evaluating game totals, ceiling projections, ownership projections, average salary, and value.

7 Players To Be Excited About After Week 1 Sep 13, 2023

Mike Leone analyzes Week 1 fantasy usage for a number of players and highlights why this particular group of seven stood out: Jordan Addison, Puka Nacua, Dalton Kincaid, Durham Smythe, Tony Pollard, Christian McCaffrey, and Tyler Allgeier.

3 Players To Worry About After Week 1 Sep 13, 2023

Mike Leone recaps a strange Week 1 of NFL DFS action. He takes a closer look at three players whose usage is a concern early in the season: Christian Kirk, D.J. Moore, and Rachaad White.

Week 1 GPP Game Scores with Adam Rauch Sep 08, 2023

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch take a closer look at Week 1, searching for the best DFS GPP stacks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Which game caught their eye the most?

Dominate Your Home-League Draft Aug 29, 2023

Mike Leone sits down with Mark Dankenbring and Jack Miller to discuss the home-league draft landscape for this season. They talk through each position, different pockets of the draft, where to find value, sleepers to target, busts to avoid, and more.

Legendary RB Upside with Pat Kerrane Aug 25, 2023

Pat Kerrane of Legendary Upside joins Mike Leone to talk about legendary RB upside for 2023.

FFPC Main Event Strategy & How To Draft As A Team Aug 23, 2023

Mike Leone is joined by Dom, Nick, and Sean of the Go Bills team that won both the 2021 and 2022 FFPC Main Event Finals for a combined $1.5 million. They talk through strategy, roster construction, and much more.

Bold Fantasy Takes To Help You Win Your League Aug 22, 2023

Mike Leone is joined by Davis Mattek of SportsGrid to talk through their boldest takes for the upcoming 2023 NFL season.

Beating WR Heavy Draft Rooms in Best Ball Aug 18, 2023

Mike Leone of Establish the Run is joined by Dan Falkenheim and Peter Overzet to discuss how WR heavy the current ADP is on Underdog Fantasy and what strategies you can use to take advantage of this landscape.
Dan is the winner of the FantasyDataPros Best Ball Data Bowl, co-run by Peter, for his submission evaluating WR runs and heavy draft rooms from Best Ball Mania 2 and 3.
You can read Dan's analysis here: https://www.si.com/fantasy/2023/08/07/fantasy-draft-strategy-wide-receiver-run
Also, check out Peter's YouTube video looking at 3 specific tactics to beat WR heavy rooms: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxlBM_sE44E&t=1s

Best Ball Mania IV Strategy Aug 16, 2023

Mike Leone is joined by Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy to talk through some micro and macro strategies for this year's Best Ball Mania contest. For more on BBMIV, check out Leone's Best Ball Mania Manifesto here.

Position Battles and Projection Uncertainty with Hidden Upside Aug 15, 2023

Drew Dinkmeyer, Jack Miller, and Mark Dankenbring check in on the various position battles going on at training camp. They talk through each notable battle and work through the different outcomes and how they could affect the fantasy landscape.

Undervalued Offenses to Target Aug 10, 2023

Drew Dinkmeyer, Mark Dankenbring, and Jack Miller sit down to talk about their favorite offenses that they believe to be undervalued heading into the 2023 NFL season.

Fantasy-Revelant Coaching Changes Aug 08, 2023

Drew Dinkmeyer, Mark Dankenbring, and Jack Miller discuss notable coaching changes from around the NFL, and share insight into why they will be so impactful from a fantasy perspective. For more on the various coaching changes that happened this offseason, check out this article by Jack Miller: 2023 NFL Coaching Changes: Fantasy and Betting Impact.

Differences Between Best Ball and Managed Leagues Jul 26, 2023

Mike Leone is joined by Jack Miller and Mark Dankenbring to discuss key differences in roster construction and strategy between best ball leagues versus managed leagues.

Best Ball Musings: Don't Freak Out Over Stacking Jul 19, 2023

Mike Leone of Establish the Run concisely covers a few best ball strategy points:
-Diversifying your player exposures
-Ranking Nick Chubb
-Ease of Argument does not equal Strength of Argument
-Not micro analyzing W17 stacking in tournaments

DeAndre Hopkins - Titans Fantasy Reactions Jul 18, 2023

Mike Leone of Establish the Run outlines the fantasy impact of DeAndre Hopkins to the Titans on the following players:
-DeAndre Hopkins
-Treylon Burks
-Chig Okonkwo
-Derrick Henry
-Ryan Tannehill

ETE Projections Special Part 8: NFC West with Ben Gretch Jul 10, 2023

In Part 8 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the NFC West and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 7: AFC West with Ben Gretch Jul 08, 2023

In Part 7 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the AFC West and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 6: NFC South with Ben Gretch Jul 03, 2023

In Part 6 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the NFC South and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 5: AFC South with Ben Gretch Jul 03, 2023

In Part 5 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the AFC South and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

The Importance of Stacking in Best Ball Jun 27, 2023

Mike Leone of Establish The Run talks about his Best Ball Manifesto, which breaks down the most successful strategies from Underdog's Best Ball Mania III. In this episode, Mike specifically talks about the importance of Stacking, how to think about it when drafting, and some strategies to enhance your chances of successfully completing stacks on your teams.

ETE Projections Special Part 4: NFC North with Ben Gretch Jun 27, 2023

In Part 4 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the NFC North and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 3: AFC North with Ben Gretch Jun 22, 2023

In Part 3 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the AFC North and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 2: NFC East with Ben Gretch Jun 19, 2023

In Part 2 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the NFC East and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

ETE Projections Special Part 1: AFC East with Ben Gretch Jun 19, 2023

In Part 1 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the AFC East and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

Combining Best Ball Drafts & Cardio Jun 16, 2023

Mike Leone is joined by Drew Jennings (@hypotheseyes) and Neil Farley (@FeilNarley) to talk about the Underdog Cardio Club, best ball strategy, and long-distance running.

Strategies for Different Best Ball Formats Jun 07, 2023

Mike Leone and Justin Herzig take a look at the various small-field tournament offerings from Underdog Fantasy and talk about how the different structures should affect your strategy in three key areas:
-Stacking
-Positional Allocation
-Player Takes

Draft Confidently and Boldly Jun 01, 2023

Mike Leone of Establish The Run talks about drafting confidently and not being afraid to look stupid when playing fantasy football. The best fantasy football drafters are willing to try and experiment with new strategies and turn their convictions into edges.
Mike also talks about 4-tight end teams in best ball, why a QB and his pass catchers may have ADPs that don't seem to align, and why both members of the same backfield can be a good bet.

The Importance of ADP Value in Best Ball May 11, 2023

Mike Leone of Establish The Run talks about his Best Ball Manifesto, which breaks down the most successful strategies from Underdog's Best Ball Mania III. In this episode, Mike specifically talks about the importance of ADP Value, how to think about it within your draft room, and some strategies to enhance your chances of getting a lot of closing line ADP value on your teams.

Best Ball Mania IV is LIVE! May 02, 2023

Mike Leone and Justin Herzig of Establish The Run break down the launching of Underdog's Best Ball Mania IV, which has a $15 million prize pool. The format has changed some from last year, and Mike and Justin talk about different ways to shift your strategy accordingly.

Superflex, TE-Premium Rookie Mock Draft with Mike Leone, Evan Silva, and Anthony Amico May 01, 2023

Mike Leone, Evan Silva, and Anthony Amico take their first swing at a rookie mock draft in a Superflex, tight end-premium format. They talk through their rationale for each pick and the outlook of rookies for the 2023-24 season.

Use These Strategies to Win on Underdog Fantasy Apr 05, 2023

Mike Leone of Establish The Run is joined by Sam Sherman of ADP Chasing to talk about best ball strategy on Underdog. The two discuss why using Finals Advance rates can be misleading and some myths about RB versus WR fantasy production.

Sophomore WR Class (2023) Apr 04, 2023

Mike Leone of Establish The Run is joined by JJ Zachariason of LateRound.com to talk about the sophomore WR class from a fantasy perspective. JJ's impressive Year 2 prospect model, which is a part of his annual Prospect Guide, has a proven track record. Find out why JJ has Chris Olave as the top Year 2 WR, why you may want to sell high on Treylon Burks, and why Alec Pierce shouldn't be completely forgotten.

Dynasty Rookie Wide Receivers (2023) Mar 22, 2023

Mike Leone of Establish The Run is joined by Pat Kerrane of LegendaryUpside.com to discuss the incoming rookie WR class. Mike and Pat evaluate the Dynasty Rookie Draft value of all of the top receivers - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, Jalin Hyatt, and Josh Downs.

Structuring Your Dynasty League Mar 15, 2023

Mike Leone is joined by Mike Schopp, of WRG550 in Buffalo and the DeepEndFF podcast, to talk about the best ways to structure your dynasty leagues to maximize fun, engagement, and competitiveness. In addition to playoff formats and prize structures, Mike and Mike work through some innovative ideas on how to best end a dynasty league.

Sexy Fantasy Football Opinions Can Steer You Wrong Feb 28, 2023

Mike Leone talks about how it can be difficult to not chase sexy opinions, takes, and narratives as we embark on the long football offseason. Instead, we need to try to do better to synthesize all of the information we have and give everything its proper weight. This is especially the case as the market gets more sophisticated and starts to price in edges that were once a lot clearer and so profitable that cost was less important.
Mike utilizes Josh Jacobs and JJ Zachariason's analysis of Chris Olave from last offseason to highlight how some of the best analysis can be boring complicated, not sexy and straightforward.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First-time depositors will receive a deposit bonus of up to $100.

Dynasty Rookie Drafts: First Look Feb 17, 2023

Mike Leone sits down with dynasty guru Anthony Amico to discuss some of the more intriguing rookie prospects for fantasy football. They talk about how they performed in college, different measurables and metrics, and other factors that could affect how they perform at the NFL level.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First-time depositors will receive a deposit bonus of up to $100.

5 Tips to Winning the FFPC Playoff Challenge: Divisional Round Jan 19, 2023

Mike Leone of Establish The Run gives you 5 tips to help you win the FFPC Playoff Challenge 2 and its $100k grand prize:
-get unique
-utilize ownership percentages from the initial contest
-leverage the market's overconfidence
-getting a little bit cute but not too cute
-don't overrate RBs
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Lessons Learned from the FFPC Playoff Challenge Jan 19, 2023

Mike Leone talks about his favorite fantasy football playoff contest, the FFPC Playoff Challenge:
-where the edge resides
-ownership recap
-sweating Jerick McKinnon
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Win $500,000 in the FFPC Playoff Challenge Jan 10, 2023

Jack Miller and Mike Leone of Establish the Run break down FFPC's Playoff Challenge, which has a $500,000 grand prize! Jack and Mike describe how to make teams with the most upside by understanding the rules of the contest:
-taking advantage of market overconfidence
-targeting WR variance and upside
-figuring out who to fade
-building teams based on different playoff bracket scenarios
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Win $150,000 in the NFFC Postseason Fantasy Football Contest Jan 09, 2023

Mike Leone of Establish the Run is joined by Davis Mattek to breakdown NFFC's unique postseason fantasy football contest:
-macro strategy
-how to play a specific bracket
-the best ways to leverage the field
-using swaps intelligently

$1 MILLION Playoff Fantasy Football Strategy with Justin Herzig Dec 19, 2022

Justin Herzig joins Mike Leone of Establish the Run to break down Underdog Fantasy's $1 million playoff best ball contest - the Gauntlet! Justin describes how to make teams with the most upside by understanding the rules of the contest to best balance being live for the Super Bowl while propping up your odds of advancing to that stage in the first place.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

DFS GPP Game Stacks Week 15 Dec 15, 2022

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch of Establish the Run recap last week's GPP action from a game stacking perspective before turning their attention to this week's slate, identifying the best games to stack and why.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

DFS GPP Game Stacks Week 14 Dec 09, 2022

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch of Establish the Run recap last week's GPP action from a game stacking perspective before turning their attention to this week's slate, identifying the best games to stack and why.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

DFS GPP Game Stacks Week 13 Dec 01, 2022

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch of Establish the Run recap last week's GPP action from a game stacking perspective before turning their attention to this week's slate, identifying the best games to stack and why.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

RB and WR Breakout Candidates Week 13 Dec 01, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run adds context to his machine learning algorithm used to identify RBs and pass catchers who should score more points than they have in recent weeks. Last week, Zay Jones, DJ Moore, and Adam Thielen were identified and broke out. This week, Mike is looking at:
-Dalvin Cook
-Michael Gallup
-Mike Evans
and others!

DFS GPP Game Stacks Week 11 Nov 18, 2022

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch of Establish the Run recap last week's GPP action from a game stacking perspective before turning their attention to this week's slate, identifying the best games to stack and why.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

RB and WR Breakout Candidates Week 11 Nov 17, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run adds context to his machine learning algorithm used to identify RBs and pass catchers who should score more points than they have in recent weeks. Last week, Amon-Ra St. Brown, James Conner, and Gabe Davis were identified and broke out. This week, Mike is looking at:
-Josh Jacobs
-Courtland Sutton
-Kyle Pitts
and others!
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

RB and WR Breakout Candidates Week 10 Nov 10, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run adds context to his machine learning algorithm used to identify RBs and pass catchers who should score more points than they have in recent weeks. Last couple of weeks, AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson, and Michael Carter were identified and broke out. This week, Mike is looking at:
-Amon-Ra St. Brown
-Kyle Pitts
-James Conner
and others!
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

DFS GPP Game Stacks Week 8 Oct 27, 2022

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch of Establish the Run recap last week's GPP action from a game stacking perspective before turning their attention to this week's slate, identifying the best games to stack and why.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

RB and WR Breakout Candidates Week 8 Oct 27, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run adds context to his machine learning algorithm used to identify RBs and pass catchers who should score more points than they have in recent weeks. Last week, Aaron Jones, Christian Kirk, and Travis Etienne were identified and broke out. This week, Mike is looking at:
-Brian Robinson
-Chris Godwin
-AJ Brown
and others!
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

RB and WR Breakout Candidates Week 7 Oct 21, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run adds context to his machine learning algorithm used to identify RBs and pass catchers who should score more points than they have in recent weeks. Last week, Ja'Marr Chase, Michael Pittman, and JuJu Smith-Schuster were identified and broke out. This week, Mike is looking at:
-Travis Etienne
-Romeo Doubs
-Amari Cooper
and others!
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

DFS GPP Game Stacks Week 7 Oct 20, 2022

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch of Establish the Run recap last week's GPP action from a game stacking perspective before turning their attention to this week's slate, identifying the best games to stack and why.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

RB and WR Breakout Candidates Week 6 Oct 14, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run adds context to his machine learning algorithm used to identify RBs and pass catchers who should score more points than they have in recent weeks. Last week, Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook were identified and broke out. This week, Mike is looking at:
-Jonathan Taylor
-Travis Etienne
-Rondale Moore
-JuJu Smith-Schuster
and others!
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

DFS GPP Game Stacks Week 5 Oct 06, 2022

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch of Establish the Run recap last week's GPP action from a game stacking perspective before turning their attention to this week's slate, identifying the best games to stack and why.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

RB Breakout Targets for Week 5 Oct 06, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run adds context to his machine learning algorithm used to identify RBs who should score more points than they have in recent weeks. Last week, Josh Jacobs and Dameon Pierce were identified and broke out. This week, Mike is looking at:
-Joe Mixon
-Dalvin Cook
-James Conner
and others!
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Week 5 WR and TE Targets with Mike Leone Oct 05, 2022

Mike Leone recaps his Buy Leone model, identifying the big hits and misses from Week 4 and then turns his attention to targets for Week 5:
-Ja'Marr Chase
-Diontae Johnson
-Chris Godwin
-Darren Waller
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Target These Breakout Pass Catchers Sep 29, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run explains his "Buy Leone WR and TE Under Performers" model, and how he uses it to try and identify trade targets in season long and high upside DFS plays.
This week, Mike discusses:
-Kyle Pitts TE2 in air yards
-Impending Brandin Cooks Bounce Back Game
-Davante Adams' Ceiling
-Signs of Life for SEA's passing game and DK Metcalf
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Week 2 Reactions with Mike Leone Sep 22, 2022

Mike Leone recaps Week 2 in the NFL and how you should adjust your fantasy teams accordingly:
-Week 2 a quick reminder on why we can't overreact to Week 1
-Should we be worried about Kyle Pitts? Does it matter?
-Buying high on young WRs in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jaylen Waddle
-Selling low on inefficient RBs in Najee Harris and Derrick Henry
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Week 1 Reactions with Mike Leone Sep 15, 2022

Mike Leone dives into 3 things he's convinced he got right after week wrong and 3 things he's convinced he got wrong:
-Davante Adams Blast Off
-Buy Low on JuJu Smith-Schuster
-Concern over 49ers pass catchers
-Tyreek Hill the Alpha in Miami
-Disappointing Aaron Jones usage
-Kadarius Toney playing time
-Hold/buy Treylon Burks and Kenneth Walker
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

High Stakes Fantasy Football in Las Vegas with Mike Leone Sep 15, 2022

Mike Leone talks about traveling out to Las Vegas to draft live high stakes leagues in both the FFPC and NFFC. Mike recounts what a pleasure it was to run into the Ship Chasing crew and multiple Establish the Run subscribers before diving into the results of his two separate $10k enty fee drafts.

Game Stacking in DFS using GPP Game Scores with Adam Rauch Aug 31, 2022

Adam Rauch and Mike Leone of Establish The Run talk about the development of ETR's GPP Game Scores, a tool initially created by Adam to provide and objective overview of the best games to stack in DFS - accounting for ceiling, salary, ownership, and overall game environment.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

2022 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions with Davis Mattek Aug 29, 2022

Davis Mattek of SportsGrid joins Mike Leone of Establish the Run to talk bold predictions and hot takes for the NFL season:
-Patrick Mahomes' best passing season yet
-Davante Adams WR1
-Jaylen Waddle outscores Tyreek Hill
-Eno Benjamin the best late-round RB pick
-and much more!
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Legendary RB Upside with Pat Kerrane Aug 25, 2022

Pat Kerrane of NBC Sports Edge joins Mike Leone of Establish The Run to talk about legendary RB Upside:
-What does that mean?
-Why do we need it?
-Which RBs in the Top 2 Rounds have it?
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Optimal Fantasy Football Auction Strategy Aug 24, 2022

Mike Leone recaps his latest NFFC Auction draft, diagnosing what went right, what went wrong, and and what the best strategy is for this year's landscape:
-Being Disciplined
-Peppering Round 3-6 WRs
-Hero RB
-Commanding the End Game
-Strong Onesies Players
Mike also gives some thoughts about the FFPC ME:
-Pushing late-round RB upside picks a round or two earlier
-How to combat missing out on an elite TE
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

The Optimal Fantasy Football Late Round Running Back Strategy Aug 22, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run dives into his late-round running back strategy. From a macro perspective, he discusses end of season upside, high value touches, and mixing RB archetypes. From a micro perspective, Mike touches on a few of his favorite targets - including Kenneth Walker, Isaiah Spiller, Rachaad White, and Kenny Gainwell.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Why Zero RB? Silva, Levitan, Leone Main Event Recap Aug 20, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run breaks down why it can make sense to wait on taking a RB, sometimes until late in the draft as he, Evan Silva, and Adam Levitan did in their FFPC Main Event Draft.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Find Edge In Your Fantasy League: Best Ball versus Managed Strategies Aug 17, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run takes a look at the differences between best ball and managed leagues and how that should affect your strategy in each format:
-Early RBs more valuable in best ball
-Quantity versus Quality at WR
-The Importance of Elite Onesies
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Win Your Fantasy League by Targeting Uncertainty Aug 11, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run takes a look at how we can turn uncertain situations into an advantage when drafting against more risk averse league mates.
-Small Miss, Big Hit Players >>> Small Hit, Big Miss Players
-Targeting QB Changes (JuJu, DEN WRs)
-The Giants Coaching Change
-Why Not Green Bay?
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

How to Win $1 Million in The FFPC Main Event Aug 08, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run is joined by Pat Kerrane and Peter Overzet of Ship Chasing to discuss the FFPC Main Event, which has a $1million grand prize. The trio discuss:
-Prize and roster format and structure
-Using SOS and stacking to optimize the overall playoff weeks
-Understanding how drafts will change between now and the week before the season
-Prioritizing the onesie positions
-Hero RB versus Zero RB
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

NFC South Projections with Ben Gretch Aug 03, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run and Ben Gretch of bengretch.substack.com team up for this special offseason projections special series. It will be an 8-part series with 1 podcast for each division.
The final division up for the duo to tackle is the NFC South:
-Why CMC is the 1.01
-Tampa Bay is a fantasy haven
-The New Orleans WRs are overdrafted
-Kyle Pitts will see his TDs rebound
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

5 WRs You Need To Draft with Anthony Amico Aug 02, 2022

Anthony Amico and Michael Leone of Establish The Run identify 5 breakout WRs that need to be on your fantasy draft radar.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

AFC South Projections with Ben Gretch Aug 01, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run and Ben Gretch of bengretch.substack.com team up for this special offseason projections special series. It will be an 8-part series with 1 podcast for each division.
The next division up for the duo to tackle is the AFC South:
-Why Jonathan Taylor is shaky as the 1.01
-Michael Pittman is overvalued
-Derrick Henry is a first round risk
-Bet on talent with Treylon Burks
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

NFC North Projections with Ben Gretch Jul 29, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run and Ben Gretch of bengretch.substack.com team up for this special offseason projections special series. It will be an 8-part series with 1 podcast for each division.
The next division up for the duo to tackle is the NFC North:
-Aaron Jones Target Ceiling
-Making Sense of GB Targets without Davante Adams
-Justin Jefferson is a Stud
-Amon-Ra St. Brown Is A Great Bet
-Can Justin Fields Bounce Back?
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

AFC North Projections with Ben Gretch Jul 28, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run and Ben Gretch of bengretch.substack.com team up for this special offseason projections special series. It will be an 8-part series with 1 podcast for each division.
The third division up for the duo to tackle is the AFC North:
-The Baltimore Ravens will run more
-Rashod Bateman is Overhyped
-Ja'Marr Chase is Special
-The CLE backfield is as cheap as it's been
-Chase Claypool is Undervalued
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

AFC West Projections with Ben Gretch Jul 26, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run and Ben Gretch of bengretch.substack.com team up for this special offseason projections special series. It will be an 8-part series with 1 podcast for each division.
The third division up for the duo to tackle is the AFC West:
-Which KC RB should you be targeting?
-The Chargers Offense will be fantasy friendly
-Why you should take shots on the Denver pass catchers
-Davante Adams will be fine in Las Vegas
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

NFC West Projections with Ben Gretch Jul 25, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run and Ben Gretch of bengretch.substack.com team up for this special offseason projections special series. It will be an 8-part series with 1 podcast for each division.
The third division up for the duo to tackle is the NFC West:
-How efficient will Matt Stafford be?
-How do we attack a Niners offense with huge efficiency upside but volume concerns?
-Kyler Murray is locked in as a Top 5 QB
-Noah Fant is a screaming BUY
-Which RB is the best bet in Seattle?
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

NFC East Projections with Ben Gretch Jul 15, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run and Ben Gretch of bengretch.substack.com team up for this special offseason projections special series. It will be an 8-part series with 1 podcast for each division.
The second division up for the duo to tackle is the NFC East:
-Bet on the Giants
-Can Antonio Gibson rebound?
-How much will the Eagles throw?
-Targets Up For Grab in Dallas
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

AFC East Projections with Ben Gretch Jul 11, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run and Ben Gretch of bengretch.substack.com team up for this special offseason projections special series. It will be an 8-part series with 1 podcast for each division.
The first division up for the duo to tackle is the AFC East:
-Is Gabriel Davis worth his rising ADP?
-Will the Patriots pass more?
-Jaylen Waddle over Tyreek Hill?
-Does Zach Wilson sink the Jets?
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Dominate Your Fantasy Home League Part 1 with Mark Dankenbring Jun 29, 2022

Mark Dankenbring and Mike Leone of Establish The Run take a first look at the home league landscape through the lens of current FantasyPros PPR ADPs. The duo take a look at the differences between best ball and managed, this year and last year, to come up with a draft strategy that will allow you to build truly dominant teams top to bottom.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Should You Handcuff RBs in Underdog's Best Ball Mania 3? Jun 23, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run breaks down last season's most popular RB backfield pairings.
-How often did the field handcuff their RB1?
-How did handcuffing impact advance rates? Top 1% scores?
-Which type of backfields were most profitable to handcuff?
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

SuperFlex Dynasty Quarterback Strategy with Shawn Siegele Jun 16, 2022

Shawn Siegele of RotoViz joins Mike Leone of Establish The Run to talk about Quarterback strategy in SuperFlex Dynasty leagues.
-How important is it to get a stud QB?
-How do league settings impact QB value?
-What are the benefits and drawbacks of a patchwork QB team?
-Who are late-round QB targets who could quickly see a bump in their Dynasty value?
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Navigate the RB Dead Zone Jun 06, 2022

Jack Miller and Mike Leone of Establish the Run describe what the RB dead zone is, why it was such a profitable area of the draft to target WRs and avoid RBs last season, and how you should approach that area of the draft in light of this year's ADP landscape.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Ways to Win $2 Million in Best Ball Mania 3 with Erik Beimfohr Jun 01, 2022

Erik Beimfohr of SpikeWeek.com joins Mike Leone of Establish The Run to talk about lessons learned from Best Ball Mania 2 and what we can do to position ourselves to win Best Ball Mania 3:
-Why the Trey Lance pick went wrong and we're buying again
-Falling in love with Week 17 game stacking
-When and how to get unique with roster construction
-The power of elite QBs
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

FFPC TriFlex Dynasty Strategy May 26, 2022

Mike Leone discusses why there is a unique opportunity in the FFPC TriFlex Dynasty leagues to try out a Zero RB strategy in your startup draft. The market doesn't quite fully value the benefits of being deep at WR and acquiring extra players in the first 10 rounds, especially in best ball.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Best Ball Mistakes You’re Probably Making (w/Jack Miller) May 19, 2022

Jack Miller of Establish The Run joins Mike Leone to discuss how the different best ball tournament structures on Underdog, FFPC, and Drafters work and how to tweak your draft strategies accordingly.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

$10 MILLION in a Fantasy Tournament??! Strategy & Picks (w/Justin Herzig) May 10, 2022

Underdog Fantasy has announced that their big summer best ball tournament, Best Ball Mania 3, will have a $10 million prize pool, including individual prizes of $2 million, $1 million, and $1 million.
The winner of the original Best Ball Mania, Justin Herzig, joins Mike Leone of Establish The Run to break down the macro strategy of how to best attack this tournament to maximize your odds of taking home a big prize and get a lot of entertainment along the way.
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Win Your Rookie Draft May 08, 2022

Mike Leone of Establish The Run takes you through his rookie draft rankings and tiers, telling you which players to draft, when you should target them, and what trades you could make based on your league rules and team's positioning:
-Breece Hall the 1.01
-Pounding WR between 1.02 and 1.07
-How to approach the overvalued Kenneth Walker
-David Bell a priority target at current ADP
-How to take advantage of these market mistakes: overconfidence, short term thinking, and overreactions to positional scarcity
Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run

Underdog Best Ball Mania 3 Rookie Rankings May 02, 2022

Jack Miller and Mark Dankenbring of Establish The Run join Mike Leone to recap the NFL draft and figure out where to rank all of the incoming rookies while implementing a sound Underdog tournament strategy:
-Are any QBs worth drafting outside of Kenny Pickett?
-Breece Hall is the clear rookie RB1. Who is RB2?
-Treylon Burks a surprise WR1 over Drake London among rookies on Underdog
-Impact of the AJ Brown and Marquise Brown trades
-And way more!

Dynasty Rookie SuperFlex Mock Draft with Evan Silva and Anthony Amico May 01, 2022

Evan Silva and Anthony Amico of Establish The Run join Mike Leone for a 2-round mock draft with a SuperFlex TE Premium format. Tune in to find out how a wild NFL Draft will impact your Dynasty Rookie drafts.
-Why Drake London is the 1.01
-How fall does Kenneth Walker fall?
-Where do we start taking the QBs?
-How to handle unexpected draft capital for athletic WRs like Christian Watson
Please check out the Establish the Run Youtube page to see the full video: https://www.youtube.com/c/EstablishTheRun

Dynasty Podcast: QB and TE Prospects with Anthony Amico Apr 22, 2022

Anthony Amico and Mike Leone of Establish The Run take a look at how to evaluate QB and TE prospects in general, how that fits into Dynasty Rookie drafts, and how the 2022 class shakes out:
-Malik Willis is in a tier of his own
-Kenny Pickett's high floor but low ceiling
-Draft Capital will be important for Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder
-Trey McBride is the firm TE1 in this class
-Jelani Woods has a profile to bet on at the end of the 2nd Round in TE premium rookie drafts

True Dynasty Virgins: The Best Dynasty League Format Apr 04, 2022

Kyle Daily joins Mike Leone of Establish the Run to talk through the best ways to structure your dynasty leagues to maximize entertainment and competitiveness.
-Managed versus Best Ball
-SuperFlex/Tight End Premium
-The Importance of Slow Drafts
-Snake or Auction Startup
-The Best Rookie Draft Structure

Best Ball: Recapping the crazy NFL Offseason with Mark Dankenbring and Jack Miller Mar 29, 2022

Mark Dankenbring and Jack Miller of Establish the Run recap the crazy NFL offseason and give you their takes on who has gained and lost the most value and what opportunities exist at current ADPs on Underdog and FFPC.
-Russell Wilson to Denver
-Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper to Cleveland
-Tyreek Hill to the Miami
-Davante Adams to the Las Vegas
-Brady unretiring and getting the gang back together in Tampa Bay
and much more!

Dynasty Podcast: RB Prospects with JJ Zachariason Mar 25, 2022

JJ Zachariason of lateround.com joins Mike Leone to talk about evaluating RB prospects, both in general and specific to the 2022 draft class.
Specifically, the duo discuss:
-What matters when evaluating RB prospects
-Why draft capital is important
-How to use speed score in RB evaluations
-College receiving share as an important indicator of versatility and talent (and a potential warning sign for Kenneth Walker)
-Breece Hall as the Top RB in the class
-Why both JJ and Anthony Amico are higher than the market on Rachaad White

2nd Year Wide Receiver Fantasy Value with Pat Kerrane Mar 23, 2022

Pat Kerrane of NBC Sports Edge and Ship Chasing joins Mike Leone to discuss Year 1 to Year 2 WRs and how we should value them in both dynasty and redraft:
-what metrics to look for in year 1 NFL performance
-how to weight that against prospect profiles
-Ja'Marr Chase da god
-Jaylen Waddle's value with Tyreek Hill in town
-Kadarius Toney changing minds
-Terrace Marshall disaster
and much more!

Dynasty Podcast: WR Prospects with Anthony Amico Mar 16, 2022

Anthony Amico joins Mike Leone to talk about evaluating WR prospects, both in general and specific to the 2022 draft class. Amico provides updated Dynasty rankings all year round on Establish The Run.
Specifically, the duo discuss:
-What matters when evaluating WR prospects
-Why age and early declares matter
-Why we care about stats like yards per team pass attempt
-ETR's tier 1 of dynasty WRs (Drake London, Treylon Burks, Garret Wilson)
-ETR's tier 2 of dynasty WRs (Jameson Williams, David Bell, Skyy Moore)
-Why Amico is lower than the market on Chris Olave
-Which other WRs could see a big rise in rankings if their draft capital came in better than expected

Showdown Strategy and Super Bowl Galaxy Brain with Cody Main and Colin Drew Feb 03, 2022

Two of the best NFL DFS Showdown players, Cody Main and Colin Drew, join Mike Leone to talk high level showdown strategy and how we can apply those contests to this year's Super Bowl:
-Common Mistakes People Make
-Who to Play at Captain and How to Build Around That
-Which correlations are overlooked? Underutilized?
-How Can We Get Unique in a Smart Way

Round 2 Playoff Fantasy Football with emphasis on FFPC and NFFC Contests Jan 19, 2022

Mike Leone takes a look at Establish The Run's updated playoff rankings and how to make the best use of them:
-Understanding when to use positional scarcity
-Evaluating the many muddled RB situations
He also takes a look at specific strategy for FFPC and NFFC:
-why there are obvious smart leverage opportunities in KC, CIN, and SF that could play huge dividends
-trying to figure out what swaps to make in NFFC based on your position relative to the field, how the bracket played out for your team, and working backwards from the multipliers you want in the Super Bowl

FFPC Playoff Challenge Strategy with Pat Kerrane Jan 13, 2022

Pat Kerrane of NBC Sports Edge and Ship Chasing joins ETR's Mike Leone to discuss strategy for the FFPC Playoff Challenge contest. The two discuss:
-Common mistakes drafters make
-How to use scenario planning to make better teams
-Why people undervalue first round upsets
-When galaxy braining goes too far

NFFC Postseason Hold 'Em Strategy with Chris Vaccaro Jan 12, 2022

Chris Vaccaro of The Athletic joins Mike Leone of Establish The Run to talk about NFFC's playoff fantasy contest. It's a unique multiplier contest that creates a lot of avenues for potential edges. Among those, Mike and Chris talk about:
-Scenario Based Selections and Working Backwards
-Why it's *good* to have a couple of skill players lose in Round 1
-How to get contrarian in smart way
-Why Dak Prescott provides multiple avenues for you to win

Playoff Fantasy Football and NFL Playoff Betting with Anthony Amico Jan 05, 2022

Mike Leone and Anthony Amico take a look at why format and rules are dictate your playoff fantasy football strategy. Stemming from that, the duo look at how to calculate expected games played and how to use that based on your league format.
The two then galaxy brain some playoff betting takes, taking a look at:
-Market shopping and reducing the hold
-The known unknowns that can cause markets/models to misprice playoff odds
-Why the Titans are one of those teams

Playoff Best Ball and NFT Fantasy Football with Justin Herzig Dec 09, 2021

Justin Herzig, co-founder of Own The Moment and ETR contributor, joins Mike Leone to talk playoff best ball on Underdog. The unique playoff contest offers a lot of room for edges. The duo discuss:
-Understanding the rules
-Winning via Roster Construction, not Player Values
-Stack 2 or 3 teams and which teams work together best
-It's better to get the best players on a worse team than worse players on a better team
-Taking advantage of uncertainty (Never Middle!)
Justin also talks about Own The Moment's NFT Fantasy Football platform - The Owner's Club. Tune in to find out how you can participate in their version of Playoff Fantasy Football.

Best Ball Reg Season Review + Playoff Preview with Madison Parkhill Dec 01, 2021

Madison Parkhill (@MadisonParkhill) of RotoViz joins Mike Leone to review the best ball regular season and preview the upcoming playoffs, plus analyzing the good, bad, and ugly of their own teams:
-Extreme strategies rule the day
-Leonard Fournette bias is killing us
-Mike cries over his rookie QB exposure
-How can we get unique "Super Teams" without sacrificing advance rate
-Is ZeroRB set up to smash the Underdog playoffs?

DEEP DIVE: How Weather Affects Fantasy Football with Chris Allen Nov 10, 2021

Chris Allen, contributor of 4for4, FootballGuys, and NBC Sports Edge, joins Mike Leone to discuss the impact of weather on fantasy football: At what point should we be worried when it comes to wind and precipitation? How do real NFL teams alter their game plans based on the weather?
Additionally the two talk about:
-Our Bengals
-Mike's Thunderdome victory
-Chris' Home Brewing
-Road Race Training

DEEP DIVE: Konami Code and Fantasy Football Edge with Rich Hribar Nov 03, 2021

Rich Hribar (@LordReebs on Twitter) of sharpfootballanalysis.com joins Mike Leone to talk about establish his edge in fantasy football:
-Rich's weekly "The Worksheet" column
-Finding micro edges as the fantasy industry becomes sharper as a whole
-The Konami Code QBs: Why running QBs break fantasy and how that may be changing in today's fantasy football landscape
-The importance of understanding player archetypes in all facets of fantasy - redraft, best ball, Dynasty, DFS, etc.

DEEP DIVE: FanDuel Strategy and Breaking Into the Fantasy Industry with Joe Holka Oct 27, 2021

Joe Holka joins Mike Leone to talk FanDuel tournament strategy as well as how Joe broke into the fantasy sports industry. Among other things, the pair discuss:
-Pricing/Scoring Difference between FanDuel and DraftKings
-How do you go about stacking on FanDuel?
-Do you have to pay up at QB on FanDuel?
-How Joe broke into the industry
-The importance of consistency, quality, and intrinsic value
-Playing long-term games with good people
Make sure to check out Joe's content on his YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/joeholka

Establish the Edge Listener Q and A Oct 22, 2021

Mike Leone answers ETE listener questions on a variety of topics - from DFS to best ball to landscaping:
-When should we be stacking in DFS and how much?
-How do we adjust for the field getting smarter with leverage plays in tournaments?
-What's the opportunity cost of drafting a QB early in best ball?
-Why is it worth paying someone to mow your lawn?

2021 Rookie SuperFlex Re-Mock Draft with Pat Kerrane and Anthony Amico Oct 13, 2021

Michael Leone is joined by Pat Kerrane of NBC Sports Edge and Anthony Amico of Establish the Run to mock draft a SuperFlex/TE premium rookie back, adjusting for what we now know five weeks into the NFL season. Among other topics, the trio discusses:
-Trevor Lawrence or Trey Lance as the top QB?
-Which skill player is best - Ja'Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, or Najee Harris?
-Is it time to give up on Zach Wilson?
-How high does Kadarius Toney rise?
-What to make of the SF RB situation
For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Eliminating Noise and Using Patience to Win DFS Tournaments Oct 07, 2021

Mike Leone goes solo this week, waxing philosophically over how we can apply Daniel Kahneman's new book, Noise, to NFL DFS. Mike outlines:
-why simple models beat human beings at prediction
-the danger of the "illusion of validity"
-how human judgement improves the information we feed the Establish the Run projections
-why we should trust those projections and not be variable or too active in tweaking our judgements on particular cases
-in other words: try to treat decisions based on player ceiling, projected value and field exposure, and correlation - no on how a player makes us feel
-getting outsized rewards for our patience in tournaments
-targeting slow starters with high ceilings like George Kittle and AJ Brown
-knowing when not to be patient and to adjust our priors quickly
For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Week 2 Season-Long Rankings Changes with ETR's Mark Dankenbring Sep 23, 2021

Mike Leone and Mark Dankenbring of Establish The Run discuss changes to the ETR staff top 150 rest of season. Conversation includes:
-Why Tyreek Hill is the WR1
-Should we be worried about Kamara, Zeke, and other early RBs
-Cooper Kupp's early season breakout
-Disappointing play calling in Cincinnati
-Being patient with Atlanta players
-How to handle young players going in different directions: Rondale Moore and Brandon Aiyuk
And so much more.
For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Week 1 Reactions with Ben Gretch Sep 16, 2021

Mike Leone and Ben Gretch dive into some of the more interesting Week 1 observations as far as team play calling and success and individual usage.
-Will ATL and TEN bounce back?
-Wheel's Up for Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb
-Is CIN low pass rate worrisome despite their success?
-Lot of optimism around the Chargers
-David Njoku, CLE TE1?
-Encouraging W1 usage for a handful of backs: Darrell Henderson, Najee Harris, Jonathan Taylor, and D'Andre Swift
You can check out Ben's work at bengretch.substack.com.
For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

DEEP DIVE: DFS Small Field Tournament Strategy with Peter Overzet Sep 06, 2021

Mike Leone is joined by Peter Overzet to talk about the concepts you should be applying when playing DFS small field tournaments:
-Common mistakes to avoid
-Thinking macro not micro
-Winning the low scoring slates
-Balancing ceiling and leverage
-Knowing your competitors
-Utilizing late swap
For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Sleepers and Keepers with Pat Kerrane Aug 27, 2021

Mike Leone is joined by Pat Kerrane of NBC Sports Edge to help you identify some potential breakout sleepers for fantasy this season, especially for keeper leagues. The duo discuss:
-Legendary RB Upside
-Profitability of Rookie WRs
-A Small Miss, Big Hit Philosophy
-Acting Fast on the Waiver Wire
-IR Stashes
-Specific Players Who Can Make Big Leaps
For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Dominate Your Fantasy Home League with Drew Dinkmeyer Aug 18, 2021

Mike Leone's ETR Establish the Million cohost Drew Dinkmeyer joins the show to talk about dominating your home league. Unlike sharp leagues where our edge is primarily in roster construction, home leagues have a lot more potential edges - roster construction, waivers/trades, player evaluation, etc. With all of these potential avenues to get and edge on our opponents, how do we truly maximize our chances of winning?
More specifically, the two discuss:
-When to take players relative to ADP
-Understanding your league settings
-Do we prioritize and pull back from extreme strategies like Zero RB in home leagues?
-Do we prioritize or pull back from drafting elite onesies (QB/TE) in home leagues?
-Is QB streaming viable?
-What types of players should we take late in drafts
-How can we take advantage of fantasy game provider settings
For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

NFFC and WR Heavy Draft Strategies with Shawn Siegele Aug 10, 2021

Shawn Siegele of RotoViz joins Mike Leone to talk about WR heavy drafting, or Zero RB, and specifically how to apply that to NFFC drafts. To do this, Mike and Shawn recap one of Mike's recent NFFC drafts from the 12-spot. The pair hit on:
-How/why does Zero RB work and what exactly is it
-Why you want 6 Top 15 WRs if possible
-Elite TEs are undervalued on NFFC
-When to take detours for RBs early
-Pushing your WR edge to the max
-Valuing breakout WRs over WRs with a higher base projection
-Rondale Moore's value
-What type of RBs to target in this roster construction
-Putting together a Late-Round QB plan that has upside
For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/
Make sure to read Shawn's article referenced in the podcast - Zero RB, AntiFragility, and the Myth of Value-Based Drafting: https://www.rotoviz.com/2013/11/zero-rb-antifragility-and-the-myth-of-value-based-drafting/
You can also catch Shawn on various RotoViz Podcasts, including:
-Stealing Bananas with Ben Gretch: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stealing-bananas/id1573819944
-RotoViz Overtime with Colm Kelly: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rotoviz-overtime/id1289057826

2QB/SuperFlex Redraft Strategy with Anthony Amico Aug 05, 2021

Anthony Amico joins Mike Leone on the Establish the Edge podcast to talk 2QB and SuperFlex redraft strategy:
-How early can/should you take your first QB?
-Why the number of flex spots matters
-Zero RB is enhanced in SuperFlex leagues
-The importance of being tethered to market value
-The Hero QB strategy
-Rookie QBs are the skeleton key to success in any format this season
Join the ETR team and gain instant access to all of Mike Leone's work, Anthony Amico's Dynasty content, and fantasy football’s premier playbook.
BUY NOW: $34.99 https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Reverse Engineering Extreme RB Strategies on Underdog Fantasy Aug 03, 2021

Mike Leone takes a look at the 2020 Best Ball Mania data to determine why extreme RB strategies were successful. Despite being seemingly at odds with one another, players that took RBs early but not a lot of them (HyperFragile) and players that took no RBs early but took a lot of them (Zero RB) were among the most profitable builds last season.
This podcast looks into what makes those strategies work on Underdog Fantasy and how we can potentially enjoy the best of both worlds. Mike delves into:
-HyperFragile builds maximize win rates when you make a good RB selection
-Zero RB builds maximize your likelihood of making a profitable early pick
-Both builds take advantage of WRs outscoring RBs at each point in the draft but in different ways
-There are archetypes of RBs that are better suited for Zero RB builds than HyperFragile builds and others we should be targeting no matter what
You can follow all of Mike's work at establishtherun.com, and you can find the full data on this topic in his article here: https://establishtherun.com/reverse-engineering-extreme-rb-strategies-on-underdog/

ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 8: NFC East with Ben Gretch Jul 30, 2021

In Part 8 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the NFC East and turn their projections process into actionable advice.
More specifically, the pair dive into:
-CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper? What is Zeke's upside?
-Antonio Gibson's league winning upside
-Kenny Golladay is NOT this year's Stefon Diggs
-Is Miles Sanders undervalued or lacking meaningful upside regardless of price?
Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 7: NFC West with Ben Gretch Jul 28, 2021

In Part 7 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the NFC West and turn their projections process into actionable advice.
More specifically, the pair dive into:
-The value of Chase Edmonds and James Conner
-We shouldn't be concerned about the Seattle passing game
-The market is under reacting to Darrell Henderson
-The 49ers leading the NFL in scoring
Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

Underdog Best Ball Puppy Review with Adam Levitan and Justin Herzig Jul 26, 2021

Adam Levitan, Justin Herzig, and Mike Leone review an ETR subscriber's Best Ball Puppy draft. The trio diagnose what went right. what went wrong, and teach viewers the best way to approach this tournament.
In this show we discuss:

-WR Thirsty Drafts
-Stacking
-Roster Construction
-Prioritizing Finishing Top 2 in League

Watch the full video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEIJScHButM&t=3s
NOTE: All ETR Draft Kit subscribers will get a free credit (up to $35) to use on Underdog Fantasy: https://underdogfantasy.com/?_branch_match_id=835499789598948157&utm_source=partner
For details, click here: https://establishtherun.com/how-to-claim-your-free-10-underdog-fantasy-credit/

ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 6: NFC North with Ben Gretch Jul 22, 2021

In Part 6 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the NFC North and turn their projections process into actionable advice.
More specifically, the pair dive into:
-Davante Adams and Aaron Jones profit potential if Rodgers return
-Ben mistaking a Rodgers Tweet about the Milwaukee Bucks as confirmation of his return to the Packers
-Is D'Andre Swift a RB dead zone exception?
-Adam Thielen - 5th round value or aging WR to avoid?
-Justin Fields' upside
Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

Legendary RB Upside and Rookie WR Profit with Pat Kerrane Jul 21, 2021

Pat Kerrane is welcomed back to the Establish the Edge podcast with open arms. Pat and host Mike Leone discuss two of Pat's excellent articles with NBC Sports Edge, their impact on our redraft strategy, and how the applications are a bit different between managed and best ball leagues.
More specifically the duo discuss:
-Ezekiel Elliott's unique distribution of potential outcomes and his value as a result
-Antonio Gibson's league winning upside
-The Cam Akers injury breaking live on air
-Rookie WRs putting up profitable seasons via efficiency
-Why the uncertainty around rookie WRs is important to target, especially in managed formats
Pat's Articles:
Early Round RBs Need Legendary Upside: https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/numbers/early-round-rbs-need-legendary-upside
Rookie WRs Are Winning Best Ball Leagues: https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/numbers/rookie-wrs-are-winning-best-ball-leagues

Best Ball and Managed League Differences with Adam Levitan Jul 20, 2021

Mike Leone and Adam Levitan go over the differences between best ball leagues and managed leagues. On the surface there are two similar games, but as you dig deeper the differences between the two formats necessitate pretty dramatic shifts in strategy.
Timestamps:
How waivers changes draft approach (1:59) |
How streaming changes draft approach (5:18) |
Roster construction in Managed Leagues (7:15) |
WRs in managed leagues vs Best Ball (9:58) |
QBs in managed leagues vs. Best Ball (12:53) |
Predicting explosion games in manage d league (15:54) |
Is “best ball player” really a thing? (18:00) |

Underdog Best Ball Mania Stream with Drew Dinkmeyer Jul 19, 2021

Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer attempt to take down the $1million Underdog Best Ball Mania 2 grand prize. The pair live stream their draft, giving micro analysis of their team as well as macro insights into how to best attack this tournament.
Full Video Version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0GerW7osOg
NOTE: All ETR Draft Kit subscribers will get a free credit (up to $35) to use on Underdog Fantasy: https://underdogfantasy.com/?_branch_match_id=835499789598948157&utm_source=partner
For details, click here: https://establishtherun.com/how-to-claim-your-free-10-underdog-fantasy-credit/

ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 5: NFC South with Ben Gretch Jul 18, 2021

In Part 5 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the NFC South and turn their projections process into actionable advice.
More specifically, the pair dive into:
-Ronald Jones is undervalued
-Atlanta was the nut landing spot for Kyle Pitts
-Both DJ Moore and Robby Anderson are targets at ADP
-What does life without Drew Brees look like for the Saints?
Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

The Late Round QB Strategy with JJ Zachariason Jul 13, 2021

JJ Zachariason of FanDuel/NumberFire joins Mike Leone to talk about the evolution of the QB position in season-long fantasy football.
JJ popularized the late round QB (LRQB) strategy nearly a decade ago, but the 2020 season shined a light on a group of second-tier elite QBs who both separated more from their peers than in previous seasons and did so in a somewhat predictable way based on their ADP.
JJ and Mike analyze that 2020 season and discuss:
-Is LRQB dead?
-Will that pool of second-tier elite QBs expand as teams embrace more pass aggressiveness and more QB rushing?
-Why streaming is a part of the LRQB strategy but not synonymous with it
-3 pockets of the draft where it makes sense to draft QBs and who those QBs are
You can read more about JJ and Mike's thoughts about the QB position in 2021 in articles written for their perspective sites:
-JJ on "Is the Late-Round Quarterback Strategy Dead?": https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/38979/fantasy-football-is-the-late-round-quarterback-strategy-dead
-Mike on "Late-Round QB is Back": https://establishtherun.com/late-round-qb-is-back/
You can follow Mike on Twitter at @2hats1mike and JJ at @LateRoundQB.

ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 4: AFC East with Ben Gretch Jul 12, 2021

In Part 4 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the AFC East and turn their projections process into actionable advice.
More specifically, the pair dive into:
-Stefon Diggs as the overall WR1
-The market being too harsh on the Jets
-Hunter Henry as an undervalued TE target
-Whether or not Jaylen Waddle is a draft target in a crowded WR room
Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 3: AFC West with Ben Gretch Jul 11, 2021

In Part 3 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the AFC West and turn their projections process into actionable advice.
More specifically, the pair dive into:
-What to expect from the KC WRs outside of Tyreek Hill
-Why the Raiders offense will regress
-Austin Ekeler's high end upside despite an unclear goal line role
-KJ Hamler as the best "Best Ball" value of the Broncos WRs
Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 2: AFC North with Ben Gretch Jul 01, 2021

In Part 2 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the AFC North and turn their projections process into actionable advice.
More specifically, the pair dive into:
-Why the Browns passing offense could be more explosive this season
-How to deal with an outlier team like the Baltimore Ravens
-The wide range of outcomes on the Pittsburgh Steelers offense
-Why it's wheels up for Burrow-Chase-Higgins-Boyd stacks in 2021
Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.
Timestamps
Cleveland Browns Projections 01:55
Baltimore Ravens Projections 25:53
Pittsburgh Steelers Projections 54:59
Cincinnati Bengals Projections 1:08:22

ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 1: AFC South with Ben Gretch Jun 22, 2021

In Part 1 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone talk about their projections process, the pros and cons of projections, and how to maximize actionable information when making projections.
After this high level conversation, the pair dive into their AFC South Projections, including:
-The impact of Julio Jones on the Titans from a fantasy perspective
-How to deal with spread out target shares in the Colts offense
-Why Laviska Shenault may still be undervalued
-Whether or not anyone on the Houston Texans is worth drafting
Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.
Timestamps
Projections Podcast Intro 00:18
Tennessee Titans Projections 21:26
Indianapolis Colts Projections 52:40
Jacksonville Jaguars Projections 1:08:44
Houston Texans Projections 1:25:05

Underdog Best Ball Tournament Review with Adam Levitan and Justin Herzig Jun 21, 2021

Adam Levitan, Justin Herzig, and Mike Leone review an ETR subscriber's Best Ball Mania draft. The trio diagnose what went right. what went wrong, and teach viewers the best way to approach this tournament.
In this show we discuss:
- High level strategy for the Best Ball Mania II tournament
- How to structure a team correctly
- Player evaluations and takes
Watch the full video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96a5wimjvdo
NOTE: All ETR Draft Kit subscribers will get a free credit (up to $35) to use on Underdog Fantasy: https://underdogfantasy.com/?_branch_match_id=835499789598948157&utm_source=partner
For details, click here: https://establishtherun.com/how-to-claim-your-free-10-underdog-fantasy-credit/

Dynasty Startup Tips with Anthony Amico Jun 17, 2021

Mike Leone and Anthony Amico talk macro strategy for Dynasty Startup drafts.
-Know Your League Settings (studs and duds drafting or drafting for depth)
-Have A Goal In Mind (create dynamics where a pocket of players have more value to you than the rest of your league)
-Understand Premium Assets (know your league mates to ensure you draft players whose trade value will hold up over time - always be liquid!)
-Fade RBs Early (RBs have shorter, less predictable shelf lives than QB and WR)
-Don't Be Afraid to Deal Future Picks (sell future picks and employ a win now and in the future strategy by stockpiling young talent)
You can read Anthony's full article on the subject here: https://establishtherun.com/5-tips-for-dynasty-startup-drafts/

Best Ball Tournament Strategy with Erik Beimfohr Jun 14, 2021

Mike Leone talks with Erik Beimfohr of RotoGrinders about translating his contrarian and successful DFS mindset to best ball tournaments. More specifically the two talk about:
-The market overvaluing projectible volume
-When to draft your tournament teams
-Why extreme strategies are the best strategies in drafts
-Why drafting different than your league mates is important
-Antonio Gibson as the easiest Round 2 upside bet
-The 49ers unique upside and potential to lead the league in points scored
-Small edges you can take advantage of via playoff schedules
Here is a link to Mike's RB strategy this year in best ball tournaments: https://establishtherun.com/leone-best-ball-rb-strategy/

RB Dead Zone and RB Upside with Jack Miller Jun 07, 2021

Mike brings on Jack Miller of Establish The Run to discuss the RB Dead Zone and RB Upside. Jack tells us what the RB Dead Zone means and why we should generally avoid RBs in Rounds 3-6 in favor of WRs. Jack also helps us to quantify late-round RB upside and why the market has it wrong. Mike and Jack use this information to find some RBs we should be targeting this season in best ball and some we should be fading.
Jack's RB Dead Zone Article: https://establishtherun.com/miller-the-running-back-dead-zone/
Jack's RB Dead Zone Fades and Exceptions: https://establishtherun.com/miller-running-back-dead-zone-fades/
Jack's RB Upside Article: https://establishtherun.com/miller-a-price-sensitive-definition-of-upside/

Lessons Learned: The Kerrane Farewell Episode Jun 04, 2021

Mike and Pat discuss their favorite moments from doing the ETE pod together. Mike shares the new format of the show going forward. Pat tries to invent a new structural strategy on his way out the door.

Revised RB Strategies in Best Ball May 24, 2021

Mike discusses his dynasty auction startup and Pat shares some news.
Then Pat asks Mike about the findings from his newest best ball article on hyperfragile and zero RB in best ball. Pat tries really hard to invent the hyperRojo strategy. Mike co-signs on Pat's rookie QB fever.

2021 Rookie Rankings (Part 2) May 07, 2021

Pat and Mike talk through the rest of the rookie class. Including QB fliers, deep WR targets, a trip down Saints memory lane, and more Rashod Bateman talk (somehow).

2021 Rookie Rankings (Part 1) May 04, 2021

Pat and Mike talk through the rookie class. Including discussion of the SF QB tiers, Najee Harris, Rashod Bateman, Javonte Williams, Davonta Smith, Terrace Marshall, Trey Sermon, Michael Carter and the rest of Pats top 24 rookies.

Dynasty Startup Recap Apr 20, 2021

Pat and Mike share their thoughts on their latest dynasty draft: Superflex, TE Premium from the 1.09. Including thoughts on the rookie class, and advanced tactics for startups.
Draft board: http://myffpc.com/FFPCDraftBoard.aspx?refid=1F9-8946D278C778

Thoughts on the 21 Rookie Class for Superflex Dynasty Apr 02, 2021

Mike and Pat discuss the 2021 rookie class and how they think the first round of 2021 rookie drafts will shake out, including thoughts on the top 4 QB and overall Superflex strategy.
Then Pat gets Mike's thoughts on Aaron Jones dynasty value now that he's back with GB.

SHIP CHASING CROSSOVER: Stacking Research and Best Ball Live Draft Mar 11, 2021

Pat and Mike jump on the Ship Chasing YouTube Channel to dive into Mike's upcoming article series on Establish The Run covering stacking strategies in best ball leagues--including what positions to stack, how to prioritize which QBs you stack with and if it's possible to stack a team without the QB.
They then live draft and underdog tournament team, implementing those stacking and team construction strategies.

DEEP DIVE: NBA TopShot with Justin Herzig Feb 26, 2021

Mike and Pat are joined by Justin Herzig of Establish The Run and the newly launched Own The Moment podcast and website.
Justin discusses why he jumped into TopShot so quickly and why he thinks it's here to stay. He also shares his thoughts on how to find undervalued moments, loading up on specific moments vs. spreading out buys, how much weight to put on serial number, how to play the Cool Cats challenge, and long term vs short term buying strategy.
Justin also points out some undervalued players and shares some tips for scooping value that won't have you breaking your F5 key like Pat.
Make sure to follow @JustinHerzig for awesome fantasy and TopShot content and make sure to follow @OwnTheMomentNFT with alerts on because they tweet out the pack drops... and we need to know about those packs.

Early 2021 Redraft Planning: Quarterback Jan 14, 2021

Mike and Pat discuss their thoughts on how QB ADP and strategy is likely to play out in 2021. Will Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson's ADP fall? Will drafters be scared off of Russell Wilson? Will Pat ever stop drafting Justin Herbert? And, has the overall strategy around QB shifted from where it was 3-4 years ago?

NFL Playoffs Fantasy Special (Featuring Adam Levitan and Evan Silva) Jan 06, 2021

Pat and Mike are joined by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva to discuss playoff fantasy tournament strategy.
Includes a breakdown of Underdog's Gauntlet format, the FFPC Playoff Challenge and the NFC Post Season Hold 'Em Contest.
Must listening for anyone playing playoff contests this year.

DFS Qualifiers, Weekly Contest Selection and Matching Lineups to Contests Dec 17, 2020

With Mike playing in this weekend's Fantasy Football World Championship, Pat asks him about playing qualifiers, strategies for mixing up weekly contest selection, modifying your bankroll and matching lineups to the contest type.

Best Ball Strategy Review and Rookie Rants Dec 10, 2020

Pat and Mike discuss their thoughts on best ball strategy, including a look back at the hyperfragile draft strategy and methods for making sure your player exposures are what you want them to be.
Mike also rants on reactions to Justin Jefferson's historic season and the episode closes with a discussion of what we can expect going forward from the rookie RB class.

DEEP DIVE: Diversification Strategy for DFS, Redraft and Dynasty Dec 03, 2020

Mike and Pat talk though diversification strategies in DFS, redraft and dynasty. Including ways to diversify on player selection even when going all in on a macro strategy in a given week / season makes sense.
They also talk through times it makes sense to spread out your exposure to players and strategies, and tactics to making that easier to execute.

DEEP DIVE: Handling Uncertainty in Season Long and Daily Fantasy Nov 20, 2020

Pat and Mike discuss how uncertainty factors into redraft and DFS.

Topics include
- Drafting for breakout players instead of assembling a starting lineup.
- Betting against the market when it is certain about uncertain situations.
- Handcuffing vs. multiple late round RBs from the same backfield.
- Waiver wire strategy.
- How to handle emerging trends in redraft vs. DFS
- How to handle dart throws and unprojectable situations in DFS.

Mike also invents a new buzzword, "input volatility" and breaks the news to Pat that Taysom Hill has TE eligibility on FanDuel this week.

High Stakes Playoff Strategy and Draft Strategy Retrospective Nov 12, 2020

Mike and Pat discuss tactics for readying FFPC and NFFC high stakes teams for the playoff run--including QB and TE stashes, calibrating FAAB bids, backup kickers and defenses and schedule considerations.
They also look back at draft season to discuss stacking, Zero RB, QB value and more.

DEEP DIVE: Correlation in DFS Lineups Nov 08, 2020

Pat interviews Mike on all there is to know about correlation in GPP lineup construction.
Covering stacking, bring backs, RB/DST, RB/RB, TE correlation, mini correlations and adjusting correlation for field size and salary.
This is an evergreen episode that covers broader strategy, not player specific strategy.

Listener Mailbag: Dynasty Trades Oct 30, 2020

Pat and Mike break down listener submitted dynasty trade questions.
Includes discussion of D'Andre Swift, Antonio Gibson, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, Chris Carson, David Montgomery, Ronald Jones (of course), Keenan Allen, Julio Jones, Devante Parker, Jalen Reagor, TJ Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, and more.

Polarizing Dynasty Players, Ambiguous RB Situations and Avoiding the Next JJAW Oct 22, 2020

Pat and Mike discuss Juju Smith-Schuster, DJ Moore and other polarizing dynasty players. They also note some red flags on rookies like Brandon Aiyuk and Gabriel Davis. And discuss difficult RB evaluations like Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers.
Finally, Mike adds James Conner to the show sheet in a successful attempt at lowering Pat's asking price in a dynasty league they're in together.

CEH and Dak Fallout + Superflex Discussion and a TPPR Tight End Review Oct 16, 2020

Mike and Pat give their thoughts on Le'Veon Bell signing with the Chiefs and on Andy Dalton's value in Dallas. Mike shares a Superflex dynasty trade for Dalton and Pat throws out some hypothetical packages to get back for Dak.
The episode closes with a discussion of Tight Ends who are standing out in targets per route run so far in 2020.
(With a chart made by Sam Hoppen (@Sam Hoppen) that Pat will share on twitter for reference).

Re-Drafting the 2020 Rookie Class w/ Evan Silva Oct 08, 2020

Pat and Mike are joined by Establish The Run co-founder Evan Silva for a 3 man draft of the 2020 rookie class. The draft was originally supposed to be just the 1st round... but this class is too loaded to stop there.

Using Predictive Receiving Metrics to Identify Week 4 Buys Oct 01, 2020

Pat and Mike discuss Sam Hoppen's charts for Establish The Run on Air Yard Share, Target Share, Targets per Route Run and Routes per dropback.
Charts:
Target Share & Air Yard Share
WR Routes per Dropback and TPRR
TE Routes per Dropback and TPRR
Then Pat and Mike tease next week's discussion on RBs.

Dynasty Rankings Updates, Rookie Pick Valuation and Advanced Rookie Pick Strategy Sep 25, 2020

Mike asks Pat about some of the biggest shifts in his dynasty rankings. Including Saquon Barkley, Juju Smith-Schuster, James Robinson, Antonio Gibson and Chase Claypool.
Then Pat and Mike discuss rookie pick strategy including advanced strategies for contending and rebuilding teams.

Interpreting Week 1 Breakouts and Rest of Season Projections Sep 18, 2020

Pat and Mike discuss Tight Ends who are popping in targets per route run and highlight some options who could have big games in Week 2. They also discuss WRs that look to be breaking out, as well as how to handle some of Week 1's disappointing performances like Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk and DJ Moore.
The episode closes with Mike discussing his approach to rest of season projections and weekly DFS projections.

Main Event ADP Shifts from TNF & Tight End Breakout Profiles Sep 11, 2020

Mike and Pat cover the data points we have from FFPC Main Event drafts following the Thursday Night Football game, and discuss where they would now take the stars and scrubs from the game in last minute drafts.
The 2nd half of the show covers Pat's article series on finding elite TE seasons, including discussion on Mike Gesicki, Mark Andrews, Tyler Higbee, Austin Hooper, Blake Jarwin and Dallas Goedert.

Dynasty Philosophy, Rankings Updates and a Rojo Sidebet Sep 04, 2020

Pat and Mike dive into dynasty strategy and the latest from Pat's rankings on ETR, including the idea of betting on WR prospect evaluation, adjusting tactics for league size and when it's a good idea to lose a trade.
Then Pat gives in and rants about how he's still drafting Ronald Jones, which results in a side bet with Mike.
Finally, Mike discusses his dynasty cut options for the shallow FFPC Superflex format.

3-Team and 6-Team Best Ball Strategy with Peter Jennings Aug 29, 2020

Mike and Pat recap the latest picks in their $1k Best Ball Entry on DraftKings and barely avoid a potentially brand destroying accidental pick.
Then they are joined by Peter Jennings for a discussion on 3-man and 6-man best ball strategy, including TE and QB value, RB tiers, and tactics for disrupting your opponents. Peter also dispenses some wisdom on taking down large field Best Ball Mania style tournaments.

Structural Best Ball Strategies and $1,000 DraftKings Best Ball Entry Recap Aug 21, 2020

Pat and Mike dive in a little deeper on their discussion of the Hyper-fragile RB strategy, and ways to implement it without missing out on premium WR and TE targets.

The episode closes with a discussion of Mike and Pat's $1k Best Ball Entry on DraftKings, including the pick Mike had to make while Pat was asleep.

RB Strategies and Backdoor Stacks for Underdog and DraftKings Best Ball Drafts Aug 17, 2020

Pat and Mike discuss the Hyper-fragile RB strategy, and modifications of this approach. They also discuss the Zero-RB and Modified Zero-RB strategies as they relate to Best Ball.

The episode closes with a discussion of stacking, and some backdoor stacks to target when you are sniped on your preferred stacking options.

Strategy Definitions:
Hyper-fragile RB: Drafting 3-4 RBs in 1st 5-6 Rounds but only 3-4 RBs in total
Zero-RB: Zero RBs through the first 4-5 rounds
Modified Zero-RB: Modified version of Zero-RB where you take 1 elite RB early, and 4+ RB's in rounds 6+

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