Economic Take

Latest Episodes:

How an Effective Vaccine May Spur the Recovery Nov 24, 2020

Show notes

It’s the holiday gift that everyone’s been waiting for—several potential COVID-19 vaccines that are nearly ready for distribution. Jim explains how an aggressive effort to vaccinate the public could build on the momentum created by business and consumer activity to help fuel the economic recovery.

How Workforce Demographics and Population Flows Could Shape the Recovery Nov 17, 2020

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Successful COVID-19 vaccine trials and improving job numbers are potential bright spots for the economic recovery—but what about the office market outlook? Jim explains how shifts in workforce demographics and population flows may impact not just when, but where employees return to work.

Keeping an Eye on the Jobs Picture Nov 10, 2020

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Jim looks beyond October’s solid job numbers to legislative and medical milestones that could return the U.S. to pre-COVID-19 unemployment levels by late 2021.

Why This Week’s Biggest Economic Event Isn’t the Election Nov 03, 2020

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Jim looks past Election Day to Friday’s release of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment report. Significant recent drops in insured unemployment coupled with strong signs of pent-up consumer demand could beat the White House for the biggest economic story of the week.

A Pre-Election Conversation on Trade, Tax and Fiscal Policy Oct 27, 2020

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In this special 2020 election edition of Economic Take, Jim speaks with JPMorgan Chase colleagues Mel Martinez, former U.S. Senator from Florida and the firm’s chairman of the Southeast U.S and Latin America, and Morgan McGrath, head of International Banking for the Commercial Bank. The three take a look at potential election outcomes in the White House and Congress and how spending, global trade, tax and fiscal policy could evolve under the next administration.

How the Expiration of Federal Unemployment Benefits Impacted Consumer Spending Oct 20, 2020

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In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim checks in with Fiona Greig, Director of Consumer Research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute, on how the shutoff of federal pandemic unemployment assistance is affecting out-of-work consumers. It may be a worrisome spot in an otherwise brightening jobs picture.

Assessing the Inflation Risk of COVID-19 Deficit Spending Oct 13, 2020

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The federal deficit was $3.1 trillion for the 2020 fiscal year. This record amount has some economists revisiting the popular theory that deficits may cause inflation. But is there any evidence that COVID-19 fiscal support could overstimulate the economy?

Why the Job Market Is Recovering Slower Than GDP Oct 06, 2020

Show notes

U.S. GDP has regained nearly 86% of the ground it lost to COVID-19 disruptions at the beginning of the year. For the job market to match this pace of recovery, 7.5 million more people would need to be employed by now. What factors are contributing to the gap between national output and employment numbers? Hint: It’s not all due to the pandemic.

Why the Air Travel Industry Remains Grounded Sep 29, 2020

Show notes

While the broader U.S. economy has nearly reached its cruising altitude since the start of the pandemic, the air travel industry is still struggling to take off. The mains reasons why may be more psychological than economic—can innovative measures and faster COVID-19 testing help reassure the public that it’s safe to fly again?

The Fed’s View to 2023 Sep 22, 2020

Show notes

Our jobs picture keeps getting better, but last week, the Fed reported it’s keeping rates near zero through 2023. Is this part of the Fed’s new approach to managing inflation or something more nuanced?

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