Economic Take

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How Much More GDP Will it Take to Fix the Job Market? Jul 06, 2021

Show notes

The nation’s GDP has just about recovered to pre-pandemic levels. So why isn’t the job market catching up? Jim explains why the economy’s going to have to grow much faster to hit Fed targets.

Why Housing’s Outlook is Still Bright Jun 29, 2021

Show notes

May home sales fell for the fourth straight month as tight inventories and rising prices put a drag on the market. Time to worry? Jim offers four reasons why he thinks housing will be favorable in the coming months.

Connecting the Dots on the Fed's Rate Move Jun 22, 2021

Show notes

So it’s happened. On June 16, the Federal Reserve announced an earlier time line for when it might raise interest rates. With the markets still shifting in response, Jim takes a deeper look at what Fed policymakers said—and why watching the economy’s reopening in the coming weeks could tell us much more.

Why the Fed Thinks Price Increases are Temporary Jun 15, 2021

Show notes

There’s plenty of continuing concern about inflation, but Jim notes that the Fed’s message about higher prices being “transitory” remains on point. He points out that supply chain bottlenecks forced by sudden, fast-returning demand in key industries are the more likely culprit in today’s rising prices, and could be temporary.

Why Taper Talk Shouldn’t Trigger a Market Tantrum Jun 08, 2021

Show notes

Last week, the Fed reported its members discussed whether it’s time to start talking about adjusting asset purchases the central bank has used to steer the pandemic economy—triggering brief market volatility. Jim thinks the Fed won’t keep policy easy forever, but likely won’t rush to unwind either. Here’s why.

People, Productivity and the Pandemic Recovery Jun 01, 2021

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Labor productivity is one of the toughest economic concepts to measure, yet a central storyline in every economic rebound. Jim looks at how demographic trends, technological advancements and policy changes could shape human productivity, hiring and economic growth during the pandemic recovery—and beyond.

What Do Inflationary Signals Mean Now? May 25, 2021

Show notes

Inflation news continues to drive headlines—rising prices for cars, lumber, gasoline and basic materials will do that. But central banks—including the Fed—have called these pricing pressures “transitory.” Jim explains why there’s much more to the current inflation picture than what’s on the sales receipt.

Looking at the Challenge of Finding Workers May 18, 2021

Show notes

With more than 10 million jobs needing to be filled to meet the Fed’s full employment targets, why are people still talking about worker shortages? Jim examines this stubborn hiring problem—how it likely started, why it could persist despite current pandemic policies and what actions could potentially address it.

About That April Jobs Report May 11, 2021

Show notes

Last week’s perceived shortfall in April employment definitely had people talking. Jim sees more in the latest fundamentals that are likely moving the U.S. closer to the Federal Reserve’s “maximum employment” targets than most might think.

Watching the Next Big Economic Story May 04, 2021

Show notes

This Friday’s April jobs report could be the economic headline of the week. But Jim reminds us there’s always more happening behind the data. How emerging demographic and migration patterns are likely shaping the U.S. economy’s post-pandemic narrative.

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