Dwarkesh Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Sarah Paine — How Mao conquered China (lecture & interview) Jan 30, 2025

Show notes

Third and final episode in the Paine trilogy!

Chinese history is full of warlords constantly challenging the capital. How could Mao not only stay in power for decades, but not even face any insurgency?

And how did Mao go from military genius to peacetime disaster - the patriotic hero who inflicted history’s worst human catastrophe on China? How can someone shrewd enough to win a civil war outnumbered 5 to 1 decide "let's have peasants make iron in their backyards" and "let's kill all the birds"?

In her lecture and our Q&A, we cover the first nationwide famine in Chinese history; Mao's lasting influence on other insurgents; broken promises to minorities and peasantry; and what Taiwan means.

Thanks so much to @Substack for running this in-person event!

Note that Sarah is doing an AMA over the next couple days on Youtube; see the pinned comment.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Sponsor

Today’s episode is brought to you by Scale AI. Scale partners with the U.S. government to fuel America’s AI advantage through their data foundry. Scale recently introduced Defense Llama, Scale's latest solution available for military personnel. With Defense Llama, military personnel can harness the power of AI to plan military or intelligence operations and understand adversary vulnerabilities.

If you’re interested in learning more on how Scale powers frontier AI capabilities, go to https://scale.com/dwarkesh.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Sarah Paine — Why Japan lost WWII (lecture & interview) Jan 23, 2025

Show notes

This is the second episode in the trilogy of a lectures by Professor Sarah Paine of the Naval War College.

In this second episode, Prof Paine dissects the ideas and economics behind Japanese imperialism before and during WWII. We get into the oil shortage which caused the war; the unique culture of honor and death; the surprisingly chaotic chain of command. This is followed by a Q&A with me.

Huge thanks to Substack for hosting this event!

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Sponsor

If you’re interested in learning more on how Scale powers frontier AI capabilities, go to scale.com/dwarkesh.

Buy Sarah's Books!

I highly, highly recommend both "The Wars for Asia, 1911–1949" and "The Japanese Empire: Grand Strategy from the Meiji Restoration to the Pacific War".

Timestamps

(0:00:00) - Lecture begins

(0:06:58) - The code of the samurai

(0:10:45) - Buddhism, Shinto, Confucianism

(0:16:52) - Bushido as bad strategy

(0:23:34) - Military theorists

(0:33:42) - Strategic sins of omission

(0:38:10) - Crippled logistics

(0:40:58) - the Kwantung Army

(0:43:31) - Inter-service communication

(0:51:15) - Shattering Japanese morale

(0:57:35) - Q&A begins

(01:05:02) - Unusual brutality of WWII

(01:11:30) - Embargo caused the war

(01:16:48) - The liberation of China

(01:22:02) - Could US have prevented war?

(01:25:30) - Counterfactuals in history

(01:27:46) - Japanese optimism

(01:30:46) - Tech change and social change

(01:38:22) - Hamming questions

(01:44:31) - Do sanctions work?

(01:50:07) - Backloaded mass death

(01:54:09) - demilitarizing Japan

(01:57:30) - Post-war alliances

(02:03:46) - Inter-service rivalry

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Sarah Paine — The war for India (lecture & interview) Jan 16, 2025

Show notes

I’m thrilled to launch a new trilogy of double episodes: a lecture series by Professor Sarah Paine of the Naval War College, each followed by a deep Q&A.

In this first episode, Prof Paine talks about key decisions by Khrushchev, Mao, Nehru, Bhutto, & Lyndon Johnson that shaped the whole dynamic of South Asia today. This is followed by a Q&A.

Come for the spy bases, shoestring nukes, and insight about how great power politics impacts every region.

Huge thanks to Substack for hosting this!

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Sponsors

Today’s episode is brought to you by Scale AI. Scale partners with the U.S. government to fuel America’s AI advantage through their data foundry. The Air Force, Army, Defense Innovation Unit, and Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office all trust Scale to equip their teams with AI-ready data and the technology to build powerful applications.

Scale recently introduced Defense Llama, Scale's latest solution available for military personnel. With Defense Llama, military personnel can harness the power of AI to plan military or intelligence operations and understand adversary vulnerabilities.

If you’re interested in learning more on how Scale powers frontier AI capabilities, go to scale.com/dwarkesh.

Timestamps

(00:00) - Intro

(02:11) - Mao at war, 1949-51

(05:40) - Pactomania and Sino-Soviet conflicts

(14:42) - The Sino-Indian War

(20:00) - Soviet peace in India-Pakistan

(22:00) - US Aid and Alliances

(26:14) - The difference with WWII

(30:09) - The geopolitical map in 1904

(35:10) - The US alienates Indira Gandhi

(42:58) - Instruments of US power

(53:41) - Carrier battle groups

(1:02:41) - Q&A begins

(1:04:31) - The appeal of the USSR

(1:09:36) - The last communist premier

(1:15:42) - India and China's lost opportunity

(1:58:04) - Bismark's cunning

(2:03:05) - Training US officers

(2:07:03) - Cruelty in Russian history

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Tyler Cowen — The #1 bottleneck to AI progress is humans Jan 09, 2025

Show notes

I interviewed Tyler Cowen at the Progress Conference 2024. As always, I had a blast. This is my fourth interview with him – and yet I’m always hearing new stuff.

We talked about why he thinks AI won't drive explosive economic growth, the real bottlenecks on world progress, him now writing for AIs instead of humans, and the difficult relationship between being cultured and fostering growth – among many other things in the full episode.

Thanks to the Roots of Progress Institute (with special thanks to Jason Crawford and Heike Larson) for such a wonderful conference, and to FreeThink for the videography.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Sponsors

I’m grateful to Tyler for volunteering to say a few words about Jane Street. It's the first time that a guest has participated in the sponsorship. I hope you can see why Tyler and I think so highly of Jane Street. To learn more about their open rules, go to janestreet.com/dwarkesh.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) Economic Growth and AI

(00:14:57) Founder Mode and increasing variance

(00:29:31) Effective Altruism and Progress Studies

(00:33:05) What AI changes for Tyler

(00:44:57) The slow diffusion of innovation

(00:49:53) Stalin's library

(00:52:19) DC vs SF vs EU

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Adam Brown — Bubble universes, space elevators, & AdS/CFT Dec 26, 2024

Show notes

Adam Brown is a founder and lead of BlueShift with is cracking maths and reasoning at Google DeepMind and a theoretical physicist at Stanford.

We discuss: destroying the light cone with vacuum decay, holographic principle, mining black holes, & what it would take to train LLMs that can make Einstein level conceptual breakthroughs.

Stupefying, entertaining, & terrifying.

Enjoy!

Watch on YouTube, read the transcript, listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite platform.

Sponsors

- Deepmind, Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI, partner with Scale for high quality data to fuel post-training Publicly available data is running out - to keep developing smarter and smarter models, labs will need to rely on Scale’s data foundry, which combines subject matter experts with AI models to generate fresh data and break through the data wall. Learn more at scale.ai/dwarkesh.

- Jane Street is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for ML researchers, FPGA programmers, and CUDA programmers. Summer internships are open for just a few more weeks. If you want to stand out, take a crack at their new Kaggle competition. To learn more, go to janestreet.com/dwarkesh.

- This episode is brought to you by Stripe, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) - Changing the laws of physics

(00:26:05) - Why is our universe the way it is

(00:37:30) - Making Einstein level AGI

(01:00:31) - Physics stagnation and particle colliders

(01:11:10) - Hitchhiking

(01:29:00) - Nagasaki

(01:36:19) - Adam’s career

(01:43:25) - Mining black holes

(01:59:42) - The holographic principle

(02:23:25) - Philosophy of infinities

(02:31:42) - Engineering constraints for future civilizations

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Gwern — Anonymous writer who predicted AI trajectory on $12K/year salary Nov 13, 2024

Show notes

Gwern is a pseudonymous researcher and writer. He was one of the first people to see LLM scaling coming. If you've read his blog, you know he's one of the most interesting polymathic thinkers alive.

In order to protect Gwern's anonymity, I proposed interviewing him in person, and having my friend Chris Painter voice over his words after. This amused him enough that he agreed.

After the episode, I convinced Gwern to create a donation page where people can help sustain what he's up to. Please go here to contribute.

Read the full transcript here.

Sponsors:

* Jane Street is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for ML researchers, FPGA programmers, and CUDA programmers. Summer internships are open - if you want to stand out, take a crack at their new Kaggle competition. To learn more, go to janestreet.com/dwarkesh.

* Turing provides complete post-training services for leading AI labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Gemini. They specialize in model evaluation, SFT, RLHF, and DPO to enhance models’ reasoning, coding, and multimodal capabilities. Learn more at turing.com/dwarkesh.

* This episode is brought to you by Stripe, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue.

If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out this page.

Timestamps

00:00:00 - Anonymity

00:01:09 - Automating Steve Jobs

00:04:38 - Isaac Newton's theory of progress

00:06:36 - Grand theory of intelligence

00:10:39 - Seeing scaling early

00:21:04 - AGI Timelines

00:22:54 - What to do in remaining 3 years until AGI

00:26:29 - Influencing the shoggoth with writing

00:30:50 - Human vs artificial intelligence

00:33:52 - Rabbit holes

00:38:48 - Hearing impairment

00:43:00 - Wikipedia editing

00:47:43 - Gwern.net

00:50:20 - Counterfactual careers

00:54:30 - Borges & literature

01:01:32 - Gwern's intelligence and process

01:11:03 - A day in the life of Gwern

01:19:16 - Gwern's finances

01:25:05 - The diversity of AI minds

01:27:24 - GLP drugs and obesity

01:31:08 - Drug experimentation

01:33:40 - Parasocial relationships

01:35:23 - Open rabbit holes

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

@Asianometry & Dylan Patel — How the semiconductor industry actually works Oct 02, 2024

Show notes

A bonanza on the semiconductor industry and hardware scaling to AGI by the end of the decade.

Dylan Patel runs Semianalysis, the leading publication and research firm on AI hardware. Jon Y runs Asianometry, the world’s best YouTube channel on semiconductors and business history.

* What Xi would do if he became scaling pilled

* $ 1T+ in datacenter buildout by end of decade

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Sponsors:

* Jane Street is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for FPGA programmers, CUDA programmers, and ML researchers. To learn more about their full time roles, internship, tech podcast, and upcoming Kaggle competition, go here.

If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out this page.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Xi's path to AGI

00:04:20 – Liang Mong Song

00:08:25 – How semiconductors get better

00:11:16 – China can centralize compute

00:18:50 – Export controls & sanctions

00:32:51 – Huawei's intense culture

00:38:51 – Why the semiconductor industry is so stratified

00:40:58 – N2 should not exist

00:45:53 – Taiwan invasion hypothetical

00:49:21 – Mind-boggling complexity of semiconductors

00:59:13 – Chip architecture design

01:04:36 – Architectures lead to different AI models? China vs. US

01:10:12 – Being head of compute at an AI lab

01:16:24 – Scaling costs and power demand

01:37:05 – Are we financing an AI bubble?

01:50:20 – Starting Asianometry and SemiAnalysis

02:06:10 – Opportunities in the semiconductor stack

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Daniel Yergin — Oil destroyed Hitler, fracking destroyed Putin Sep 18, 2024

Show notes

Unless you understand the history of oil, you cannot understand the rise of America, WW1, WW2, secular stagnation, the Middle East, Ukraine, how Xi and Putin think, and basically anything else that's happened since 1860.

It was a great honor to interview Daniel Yergin, the Pulitzer Prize winning author of The Prize - the best history of oil ever written (which makes it the best history of the 20th century ever written).

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Sponsors:

This episode is brought to you by Stripe, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue.

This episode is brought to you by Suno, pioneers in AI-generated music. Suno's technology allows artists to experiment with melodic forms and structures in unprecedented ways. From chart-toppers to avant-garde compositions, Suno is redefining musical creativity. If you're an ML researcher passionate about shaping the future of music, email your resume to dwarkesh@suno.com.

If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out this page.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – Beginning of the oil industry

(00:13:37) – World War I & II

(00:25:06) – The Middle East

(00:47:04) – Yergin’s conversations with Putin & Modi

(01:04:36) – Writing through stories

(01:10:26) – The renewable energy transition

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

David Reich — How one small tribe conquered the world 70,000 years ago Aug 29, 2024

Show notes

I had no idea how wild human history was before chatting with the geneticist of ancient DNA David Reich.

Human history has been again and again a story of one group figuring ‘something’ out, and then basically wiping everyone else out.

From the tribe of 1k-10k modern humans who killed off all the other human species 70,000 years ago; to the Yamnaya horse nomads 5,000 years ago who killed off 90+% of (then) Europeans and also destroyed the Indus Valley.

So much of what we thought we knew about human history is turning out to be wrong, from the ‘Out of Africa’ theory to the evolution of language, and this is all thanks to the research from David Reich’s lab.

Buy David Reich’s fascinating book, Who We Are How We Got Here.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Sponsor

If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out this page.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – Archaic and modern humans gene flow

(00:20:24) – How early modern humans dominated the world

(00:39:59) – How bubonic plague rewrote history

(00:50:03) – Was agriculture terrible for humans?

(00:59:28) – Yamnaya expansion and how populations collide

(01:15:39) – “Lost civilizations” and our Neanderthal ancestry

(01:31:32) – The DNA Challenge

(01:41:38) – David’s career: the genetic vocation

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Joe Carlsmith — Preventing an AI takeover Aug 22, 2024

Show notes

Chatted with Joe Carlsmith about whether we can trust power/techno-capital, how to not end up like Stalin in our urge to control the future, gentleness towards the artificial Other, and much more.

Check out Joe's sequence on Otherness and Control in the Age of AGI here.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Sponsors:

- Bland.ai is an AI agent that automates phone calls in any language, 24/7. Their technology uses "conversational pathways" for accurate, versatile communication across sales, operations, and customer support. You can try Bland yourself by calling 415-549-9654. Enterprises can get exclusive access to their advanced model at bland.ai/dwarkesh.

- Stripe is financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue.

If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out this page.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) - Understanding the Basic Alignment Story

(00:44:04) - Monkeys Inventing Humans

(00:46:43) - Nietzsche, C.S. Lewis, and AI

(1:22:51) - How should we treat AIs

(1:52:33) - Balancing Being a Humanist and a Scholar

(2:05:02) - Explore exploit tradeoffs and AI

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com