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    Technology

    Doom Debates!

    It’s time to talk about the end of the world. With your host, Liron Shapira.

    lironshapira.substack.com

    Advertise
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    Latest Episodes:
    Did Eliezer Yudkowsky Really Call for VIOLENCE? — Debate with John Alioto Apr 18, 2026
    Show notes

    My guest, John Alioto, is an independent AI engineer with a computer science degree from UC Berkeley and 25 years building real-world AI systems at companies like Microsoft and Google.

    In the wake of an attack on Sam Altman’s property, John Alioto came on the show to argue that Yudkowsky’s words are violent rhetoric that helped create this moment. Since I completely disagree with that characterization, we had a lot of fuel for a passionate debate.

    For the record, here’s my position on why AI doomers are NOT “calling for violence”:

    Are we acting like we actually think there’s an urgent extinction risk? Yes.

    Are we calling for lawless violence? Absolutely not. At least not me, or the leaders of the movement, or anyone I’ve ever personally interacted with.

    Are we calling for violence as a last resort if a government policy has been established and then egregiously violated? Yes… but that’s just standard for any governance proposal! A proposal for a strictly enforced treaty isn’t a call for violence — it’s a call for doing everything we can to make sure no one breaks the treaty, with zero violence, unless rogue actors decide to break the treaty and bring the consequences on themselves.

    Thanks to John for having an extremely respectful and good-faith debate on this heated subject.

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:00:37 — Introducing John Alioto

    00:03:02 — Setting the Stage: Recent Acts of Violence & AI Discourse

    00:05:53 — Eliezer Yudkowsky's 2023 TIME Article

    00:11:16 — John's Two-Part Argument

    00:14:37 — Conditional on High P(Doom), Is Eliezer's Policy Bad?

    00:17:46 — Be Like Carl Sagan — Win in the Arena of Ideas

    00:21:12 — No Carve-Outs for Non-Signatories

    00:26:15 — Hypothetical: What If the UN Voted for a Treaty?

    00:30:46 — What's the Correct Interpretation of Eliezer's TIME Article?

    00:32:42 — Liron's Interpretation: Same Structure as Any International Law Proposal

    00:42:23 — What Should Eliezer Have Written? "Airstrikes" vs "Strong Deterrent"

    00:49:57 — How John Would Rewrite the TIME Piece

    00:50:54 — Carve-Outs: Allies, Civilians, Consequences

    00:52:52 — Debate Wrap-Up

    00:56:27 — Last Q: Does High P(Doom) Imply Violence?

    00:59:40 — Closing Thoughts

    Links

    John P. Alioto on X (Twitter) — https://x.com/jpalioto

    Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Pausing AI Developments Isn’t Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down” (Time Magazine, March 2023) — https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    Are AI Doomers “Calling for Violence”? Debate with Steven Balik Apr 16, 2026
    Show notes

    Are AI safety advocates like Eliezer Yudkowsky at fault for the recent attacks on Sam Altman because they are “calling for violence”?

    I invited Steven Balik to join me on this emergency episode to hash it out.

    Steven is an activist short seller and data engineering professional whose Substack is popular among Silicon Valley VCs and hedge funds.

    Links

    Steven Balik on X (Twitter) — https://x.com/laurenbalik

    Steven Balik, “The Talmudic Stock Bubble, AI Psychosis, & Esoterrorism” (Substack, October 2025) — https://laurenbaliksalmanacandrevue.substack.com/p/the-talmudic-stock-bubble-ai-psychosis

    Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Pausing AI Developments Isn’t Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down” (Time, March 2023) — https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:00:52 — Introducing Steven Balik

    00:01:24 — Setting the Stage: Molotov Cocktail Incident

    00:03:31 — Steven’s Opening Position

    00:06:10 — Is Eliezer Yudkowsky “Calling for Violence”?

    00:07:25 — Steven on AI, Yudkowsky, the Zizians & Escalating Rhetoric

    00:12:16 — Focusing on the Time Article

    00:18:51 — Who’s Responsible for the Violence?

    00:25:33 — Debating the Key Quote in Yudkowsky’s Time Article

    00:31:07 — Liron Passes the Ideological Turing Test

    00:45:42 — Liron & Steven Find Common Ground

    00:46:57 — Why Does Steven Call Eliezer Yudkowsky an “Esoterrorist”?

    00:48:51 — Wrapping Up: Deescalating the Situation

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    Tristan Harris and Ted Tremper are WAKING UP Humanity to AI Extinction! Apr 14, 2026
    Show notes

    The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist could become the most important movie of our generation. It’s a new film from the producers of the Oscar-winning Everything Everywhere All at Once.

    Tristan Harris is a subject in the film who is well-known for his role in Netflix's The Social Dilemma. He is the co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology.

    Ted Tremper is a producer on the film who is the interim Executive Director of the Creators' Coalition on AI.

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:01:20 — Introducing Tristan Harris and Ted Tremper

    00:04:31 — The Genesis of The AI Doc

    00:12:48 — Tristan’s Journey From Social Media to AI

    00:14:30 — Updating From AI Skeptic to AI Risk Aware

    00:20:31 — How They Convinced the AI CEOs to Agree to be Interviewed

    00:28:58 — Ted’s Journalism Advice, Working on Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    00:30:37 — Tristan, What’s Your P(Doom)™?

    00:34:30 — The Resource Curse: What AI Revenue Does to a Society

    00:44:10 — Ted, What’s Your P(Doom)™?

    00:46:34 — Reacting to Demis Hassabis Statement that AGI Development Is Inevitable

    00:49:52 — Liron Sharpens the Criticism Towards AGI Builders

    00:55:35 — AGI Developers Claim to Want International Cooperation, But Have They Really Tried?

    01:04:30 — What Should Be the Single Takeaway for Concerned Viewers?

    01:11:40 — Building a Coalition Against Superintelligence Development: From Bernie to Bannon

    01:19:52 — Take Action at TheAIDocGetInvolved.com

    01:24:40 — Tristan’s Closing Message: We’ve Done This Before

    Links

    Watch The AI Doc — https://www.focusfeatures.com/the-ai-doc-or-how-i-became-an-apocaloptimist

    Get Involved with The AI Doc Community — https://theaidocgetinvolved.com/

    Tristan Harris, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tristan_Harris

    Ted Tremper, IMDb — https://www.imdb.com/name/nm3998229/

    Center for Humane Technology — https://www.humanetech.com/

    “The Intelligence Curse” by Luke Drago and Rudolf Laine — https://intelligence-curse.ai/

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    I Challenged DON’T LOOK UP’s Screenwriter to Look Up At AGI Apr 07, 2026
    Show notes

    David Sirota helped create “Don’t Look Up” sometimes feels like we’re living inside his movie. Does he share my belief that the looming planetary threat is rogue AI?

    Sirota is an award-winning investigative journalist, bestselling author, and former speechwriter for Bernie Sanders. He was nominated for an Oscar for co-writing the story of Don’t Look Up.

    Find our more about David’s work at The Lever: https://www.levernews.com/

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:01:20 — Introducing David Sirota

    00:04:34 — Why David Fights Against Power and the Concentration of Power

    00:13:46 — From NAFTA to AI: The Warnings We Ignored

    00:22:05 — How Big Will the AI “Jobpocalypse” Be?

    00:25:28 — Superintelligence & the Parallel to Don’t Look Up

    00:28:37 — What’s Your P(Doom)™?

    00:31:44 — The Speed of the AI Threat

    00:36:26 — Society Is Losing a Collective Capacity to Focus

    00:38:34 — Is Climate Change David’s Biggest Existential Concern?

    00:45:01 — David Reacts to Bernie Sanders’ Data Center Moratorium Proposal

    00:49:11 — Can We Build The “Off Button”?

    00:52:08 — “Don’t Look Up” x AGI Mashup

    00:54:35 — Why There’s Still Hope

    00:58:14 — Living in “Don’t Look Up”

    00:59:46 — Wrap-Up: Where to Follow Major AI News

    Links

    Watch Don't Look Up — https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/81252357

    The Lever, investigative news outlet — https://www.levernews.com/

    David Sirota on X — https://x.com/davidsirota

    David Sirota, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Sirota

    Master Plan podcast — https://the.levernews.com/master-plan/

    David Sirota, “Hostile Takeover” on Amazon — https://www.amazon.com/Hostile-Takeover-Corruption-Conquered-Government/dp/0307237354

    The Three-Body Problem (novel), Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Three-Body_Problem_(novel)

    WarGames (1983 film), Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WarGames

    Adam McKay, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_McKay

    Watch Don’t Look Up — https://www.netflix.com/title/81252357

    AI 2027 scenario — https://ai-2027.com/

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    I Went On Jubilee's Middle Ground To Warn About AI Extinction! Apr 02, 2026
    Show notes

    The popular debate show, Middle Ground by Jubilee, invited me on to take the "anti-AI" side back in April 2024.

    This highlight reel of the episode shows my experience of the discussion.

    I'm a lifelong techno-optimist, and it's unnatural for me to represent an anti-tech position. It's just that our AI labs are admitting they're on the path to superintelligence they don't know how to control, which implies we're all about to die and the universe will be robbed of all value forever before our kids grow up. Other than that one little consideration, I'm normally pro-tech!

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Why Liron is Worried about AI

    00:02:13 — The Nuclear Analogy

    00:02:43 — Human Evolution and Neuralink

    00:03:14 — The AI Labs’ Own Warnings

    Links

    Full episode on YouTube —https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47fGrqzoFr8

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    Liron’s 700% Productivity Increase, Bernie & AOC’s Datacenter Ban, Are We In Full Takeoff? — Live Q&A Mar 31, 2026
    Show notes

    Multiple live callers join this month's Q&A as we react to Bernie Sanders and AOC's data center moratorium, the sudden shutdown of SORA 2, and the record breaking "Stop the AI Race" protest.

    I explain why Claude Code has me claiming a 700% productivity boost, what that means for takeoff timelines and debate instrumental convergence.

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:01:08 — Can AI Train on Its Own Data to Reach Superintelligence?

    00:03:42 — Are We in the Takeoff? 700% Faster with Claude Code

    00:04:27 — EJJ Joins: Is Instrumental Convergence Really That Dangerous?

    00:16:44 — The Positive Feedback Loop Problem

    00:20:09 — S-Risk, Consciousness, and Objective Morality

    00:22:27 — Futarchy and Prediction Markets

    00:24:31 — Low P(Doom) Arguments and Bayesian Updates

    00:31:05 — Lee Cyrano Joins: Superintelligence Won’t Matter for Decades

    01:02:45 — Lesaun Joins: Are There Adults in the Room?

    01:17:39 — Connor Leahy: “There Are No Adults in the Room”

    01:19:51 — Bernie Sanders Calls for a Data Center Moratorium

    01:24:23 — Claude Code Anecdotes and Audience Q&A

    01:35:49 — The Stop the AI Race Protest in San Francisco

    01:41:38 — Known Unknowns and Risk Assessment

    01:45:03 — From Waymo to Existential Risk

    01:51:28 — Closing: The Road to One Million Subscribers

    Links

    Quintin Pope vs Liron Shapira debate on Doom Debates — https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/ai-alignment-is-solved-phd-researcher

    CAP theorem, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAP_theorem

    Google Cloud Spanner, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanner_(database)

    Newcomb’s problem, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox

    Gödel’s incompleteness theorems, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6del%27s_incompleteness_theorems

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    AI Alignment Is Solved?! PhD Researcher Quintin Pope vs Liron Shapira (2023 Twitter Debate) Mar 25, 2026
    Show notes

    Dr. Quintin Pope, PhD, is one of the few critics of AI doomerism who is truly fluent in the concepts and arguments. In Oct, 2023 he joined me for a debate in Twitter Spaces where he argued that AI alignment was basically already solved.

    His “inside view” on machine-learning forced me to update my position, but could he knock me off the doom train?

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:00:43 — Introductions

    00:01:22 — Quintin's Opening Statement

    00:02:32 — Liron's Opening Statement

    00:05:10 — Has RLHF Solved the Alignment Problem?

    00:07:52 — AI Capabilities Are Constrained by Training Data

    00:10:52 — Defining ASI and Could RLHF Align a Superintelligence?

    00:13:13 — Quintin Is More Optimistic Than OpenAI

    00:14:16 — What Is ASI in Your Mind?

    00:15:57 — AI in 5 Years (2028) & AI Coding Agents

    00:19:05 — Continuous or Discontinuous Capability Gains?

    00:19:39 — DEBATE: General Intelligence Algorithm in Humans

    00:30:02 — The Only Coherent Explanation of Humans Going to the Moon

    00:34:01 — Are We "Fully Cooked" as a General Optimizer?

    00:35:53 — Common Mistake in Forecasting Superintelligence

    00:42:22 — 'Neat' vs 'Scruffy': Will Interpretable Structure Emerge Inside Neural Nets?

    00:48:57 — Does This Disagreement Actually Matter for P(Doom)?

    00:54:33 — Thought Experiment: Could You Have Predicted a Species Would Go to the Moon?

    00:57:26 — The Basin of Attraction for Superintelligence

    00:59:35 — Does a Superintelligence Even Exist in Algorithm Space?

    01:09:59 — Closing Statements

    01:12:40 — Audience Q&A

    01:19:35 — Wrap Up

    Links

    Original Twitter Spaces debate (Quintin Pope vs. Liron Shapira) — https://x.com/i/spaces/1YpJkwOzOqEJj/peek

    Quintin Pope on Twitter/X — https://twitter.com/QuintinPope5

    Quintin Pope, Alignment Forum profile — https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/quintin-pope

    InstructGPT, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InstructGPT

    AIXI, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIXI

    AlphaZero, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaZero

    MuZero, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MuZero

    DeepMind AlphaZero and MuZero page — https://deepmind.google/research/alphazero-and-muzero/

    Midjourney — https://www.midjourney.com/

    DALL-E, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DALL-E

    OpenAI Superalignment announcement — https://openai.com/index/introducing-superalignment/

    Shard Theory sequence on LessWrong — https://www.lesswrong.com/s/nyEFg3AuJpdAozmoX

    “Evolution Provides No Evidence for the Sharp Left Turn” — https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hvz9qjWyv8cLX9JJR/evolution-provides-no-evidence-for-the-sharp-left-turn

    “My Objections to ‘We’re All Gonna Die with Eliezer Yudkowsky’” — https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wAczufCpMdaamF9fy/my-objections-to-we-re-all-gonna-die-with-eliezer-yudkowsky

    “AI is Centralizing by Default; Let’s Not Make It Worse” — https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zd5inbT4kYKivincm/ai-is-centralizing-by-default-let-s-not-make-it-worse

    Singular Learning Theory, Alignment Forum sequence — https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/mqwA5FcL6SrHEQzox

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    I'm Watching AI Take Everyone's Job | Liron on Robert Wright's NonZero Podcast Mar 20, 2026
    Show notes

    My new interview on Robert Wright's Nonzero Podcast where we dive into the agentic AI explosion.

    Bob is an exceptionally sharp interviewer who connects the dots between job displacement and AI doom.

    I highly recommend becoming a premium subscriber to Bob’s Nonzero Newsletter so you can watch the Overtime segment in every interview he does — https://nonzero.org

    Our discussion continues in Overtime for premium subscribers — https://www.nonzero.org/p/early-access-the-allure-and-danger

    Links

    Nonzero Podcast on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@nonzero

    Robert Wright, The God Test (book, Amazon) — https://www.amazon.com/God-Test-Artificial-Intelligence-Reckoning/dp/1668061651

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Introduction and Today's Topics

    00:03:22 — Vibe Coding and the Agentic Revolution

    00:08:57 — The Future of Employment

    00:17:57 — Agents and What They Can Do

    00:27:59 — The "Can It" and "Will It" Framework for AI Doom

    00:30:27 — OpenClaw and Liron's Experience with AI Agents

    00:36:45 — The Case for Slowing Down AI Development

    00:43:28 — Anthropic, the Pentagon, and AI Politics

    00:48:37 — AI Safety Leadership Concerns

    00:52:06 — Closing and Overtime Tease

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    This Top Economist's P(Doom) Just Shot Up 10x! Noah Smith Returns To Explain His Update Mar 17, 2026
    Show notes

    Noah Smith is an economist and author of Noahpinion, one of the most popular Substacks in the world.

    He returns to Doom Debates to share a massive update to his P(Doom), and things get a little heated.

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Cold Open

    00:00:41 — Welcome Back Noah Smith!

    00:01:40 — Noah's P(Doom) Update

    00:03:57 — The Chatbot-Genie-God Framework

    00:05:14 — What's Your P(Doom)™

    00:09:59 — Unpacking Noah's Update

    00:16:56 — Why Incidents of Rogue AI Lower P(Doom)

    00:20:04 — Noah's Mainline Doom Scenario: Much Worse Than COVID-19

    00:23:29 — Society Responds After Growing Pains

    00:29:25 — Agentic AI Contributed to Noah's Position

    00:31:35 — Should Yudkowsky Get Bayesian Credit?

    00:33:59 — Are We Communicating the Right Way with Policymakers?

    00:40:16 — Finding Common Ground on AI Policy

    00:47:07 — Wrap-Up: People Need to Be More Scared

    Links

    Doom Debate with Noah Smith — Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwmJ-OnK2I4

    Noah’s Twitter — https://x.com/noahpinion

    Noah’s Substack — https://noahpinion.blog

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    Talking AI Doom with Dr. Claire Berlinski & Friends Mar 12, 2026
    Show notes

    Dr. Claire Berlinski is a journalist, Oxford PhD, and author of The Cosmopolitan Globalist.

    She invited me to her weekly symposium to make the case for AI as an existential risk.

    Can we convince her sharp, skeptical audience that P(Doom) is high?

    Subscribe to The Cosmopolitan Globalist: https://claireberlinski.substack.com/

    Follow Claire on X: https://x.com/ClaireBerlinski

    “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” by Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares — https://ifanyonebuildsit.com

    Timestamps

    00:00:00 — Introduction

    00:02:10 — Welcome and Setting the Stage

    00:06:16 — Outcome Steering: The Magic of Intelligence

    00:10:40 — Collective Intelligence and the Path to ASI

    00:12:53 — The Five-Point Argument

    00:14:56 — The Alignment Problem and Control

    00:17:56 — The Genie Problem and Recursive Self-Improvement

    00:20:38 — Timeline: Five Years or Fifty?

    00:26:14 — Social Revolution and Pausing AI

    00:28:54 — Energy Constraints and Resource Limits

    00:31:23 — Morality, Empathy, and Superintelligence

    00:37:45 — How AI Is Actually Built

    00:38:31 — Computational Irreducibility and Co-Evolution

    00:44:57 — Foom and the Discontinuity Question

    00:46:44 — US-China Rivalry and the Arms Race

    00:49:36 — The Co-Evolution Argument

    00:55:36 — Alignment as Psychoanalysis

    00:57:24 — Anthropic’s “Harmless Slop” Paper

    01:00:33 — Policy Solutions: The Pause Button

    01:04:47 — Military AI and the Singularity

    01:07:10 — Cognitive Obstacles and Doom Fatigue

    01:09:07 — Why People Don’t Act

    01:13:00 — Reaching Representatives and Building a Platform

    01:17:12 — Sam Altman and the Manhattan Project Parallel

    01:19:14 — Community Building and Pause AI

    01:22:07 — Call to Action and Closing

    Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

    Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


    Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

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