Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

AI, poker, and mind games, with Max Chiswick Nov 21, 2024

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Max Chiswick, a former professional poker player turned AI educator, to explore how poker intersects with decision making. They discuss how the online poker boom created unprecedented opportunities to study decision-making at scale and how computational advances have transformed both the game's theory and practice. They dig into how poker serves as a laboratory for studying decision-making under uncertainty, pattern recognition, and opponent modeling, while also examining the sometimes problematic incentives that emerge in both online gambling and AI development.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-poker-max-chiswick/

–

Sponsor: Check

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

Max's website: https://maxchiswick.com/
Max's startup for AI and Game Strategy: https://overbet.ai/
The Expected Value Foundation & poker camp course: https://expectedvalue.org/
Patrick's Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/

–

Twitter:
@chisness
@patio11

-
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:26) Max's background and journey into poker

(03:45) The credit card rewards game tangent

(06:12) Why poker matters: reasoning and decision-making
(07:49) The problem areas in the poker AI space
(09:38) Poker as an assistive technology for reasoning

(10:59) Online poker history

(16:14) Understanding multitabling

(21:14) Casino economics and gambling regulation
(22:55) Sponsor: Check

(26:32) PokerStars VIP program and professional incentives

(29:47) Playing a million hands in a month

(37:26) AI poker history and counterfactual regret minimization

(43:35) Poker complexity

(45:01) The impact of solvers on modern poker

(45:52) Understanding poker game theory and decision trees

(49:26) Recent developments in poker AI education

(50:27) Teaching programmers to build poker bots

(53:05) Wrap

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network, the network behind Econ 102 with Noah Smith, The Riff with Byrne Hobart, and Turpentine VC. Turpentine also has a social network for top tech founders: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

Boom, busts, and long term progress with Byrne Hobart Nov 14, 2024

By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern streaming to today’s AI investment surge, they examine how even when investment manias end badly, they frequently pull forward crucial technological development that benefits society long-term. Byrne and Patrick weave through historical cases like Bell Labs to present day examples in crypto and energy infrastructure, revealing hidden cycles where speculative excess can drive genuine innovation.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/boom-busts-and-long-term-progress-with-byrne-hobart-2/

–

Sponsor: Check

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

Order Byrne Hobart’s book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation on Stripe Press / Bookshop / Amazon here: https://press.stripe.com/boom
The Diff
Capital Gains
The Reckoning by David Halberstam: https://www.amazon.com/Reckoning-David-Halberstam/dp/0380721473
Austin Vernon on Fracking, Complex Systems Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=CDrPD3nNSP-MUV60qffglg

–

Twitter:
@byrnehobart
@patio11

-
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:25) Discussing the book: Boom, Bubbles, and the End of Stagnation
(01:08) Economic growth and productivity
(04:42) Technological advancements and corporate R&D
(07:31) The role of government and private sector
(13:42) Sponsor: Check
(14:57) Economic history and industrial evolution
(20:12) Japanese industrial planning and efficiency
(27:16) The dot-com boom and fiber optic investment
(31:21) Bondholders vs. equity investors: A comparative analysis
(32:32) Google’s strategic fiber investments
(32:56) The evolution of online video and YouTube’s rise
(35:22) The dot-com bubble and its aftermath
(44:06) The housing bubble
(49:39) Financial manias and reflexivity
(52:23) The SaaS ecosystem and startup growth
(54:58) Stripe and the evolution of online payments
(01:00:22) Crypto
(01:04:58) The value of currency and crypto
(01:06:36) Exchange tokens and financial models
(01:08:55) Crypto’s impact on financial systems
(01:10:41) The evolution of banking technology
(01:13:18) Crypto regulations and financial freedom
(01:17:28) Smart contracts and financial innovation
(01:26:47) The role of AI in technological advancements
(01:29:18) The future of energy: Geothermal and fracking
(01:41:39) The journey of writing ‘Boom’
(01:42:57) Wrap

How money moves, with Erik Torenberg Nov 07, 2024

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Erik Torenberg, the founder of Turpentine, to discuss the fundamentals of money movement and banking systems. Patrick breaks down how banks facilitate transfers through correspondent accounts and clearinghouses, explaining the evolution from physical check movement to digitization. They cover the gold standard's history, and then dig into stablecoins and their implications for the future of finance.

–

Full transcript available here: https://complexsystemspodcast.com/money-movement-erik-torenberg

–

Sponsor: Check

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

Bits about Money - Bank Transfers https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/bank-transfers-as-a-payment-method/
Bits about Money - Stablecoins https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/stablecoin-mechanisms-and-use-cases/

–

Twitter:
@patio11

@eriktorenberg

-
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro

(00:49) What is money?

(02:39) How money moves

(06:00) Banking and correspondent accounts

(07:59) Clearing houses and payment systems

(12:09) The gold standard and fractional reserve banking

(18:15) Introduction to stablecoins

(19:38) Sponsor: Check

(21:31) Stablecoin models and issues

(27:30) Crypto skepticism and innovations

(30:53) Regulatory arbitrage and future of money

(36:36) Wrap

From molecule to medicine, with Ross Rheingans-Yoo Oct 31, 2024

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ross Rheingans-Yoo to discuss drug development and clinical trials. Ross breaks down how drugs progress from academic research through FDA approval, the challenging economics, and the many systemic inefficiencies in the current approval process. Patrick and Ross discuss historical cases like the thalidomide crisis that shaped FDA policy, the evolution of accelerated approvals during the AIDS epidemic, and lessons from COVID-19 trials. Ross shares his current work rescuing abandoned promising drugs from bankruptcy.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/drug-development-ross-rheingans-yoo/

–

Sponsors: Manifold Markets | Check

Manifold is my favorite prediction market platform, making it easy to bet on anything from elections to crypto drama. Get started with a bonus at https://manifold.markets/complexsystems when you spend $20. Play money markets open to anyone; cash prizes only available to U.S. residents of at least 18 years of age. Terms and conditions apply.

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

Ross' newsletter: https://essays.soletta.vc
Ross' blog post on drug development costs: https://blog.rossry.net/100x/
Ross' blog post on lessons from thalidomide https://blog.rossry.net/thalidomide/

–

Twitter:
@patio11
@_rossry

–
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro

(02:28) Ross’ career transition to drug development

(03:12) The drug development process

(06:22) Clinical trials and FDA approval

(11:48) Challenges in clinical trials

(14:50) Case study: COVID-19 trials

(18:00) Sponsors: Manifold Markets | Check

(19:55) Pharmaceutical economics

(38:13) Rare diseases and regulatory strategies

(45:18) Advanced market commitments explained

(45:54) Operation warp speed and its impact

(47:45) How to get accelerated approvals

(52:49) The thalidomide tragedy and its legacy

(01:03:17) Modern regulatory challenges and patient advocacy

(01:07:14) Reviving abandoned drugs

(01:12:06) Innovative approaches to drug trials

(01:24:26) The future of pharmaceutical development

(01:26:34) Wrap

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

Picking Uncle Sam's pocket, with Jetson Leder-Luis Oct 24, 2024

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by economist and fraud researcher Professor Jetson Luis-Leder to examine the systemic issues underlying government program fraud. Jetson and Patrick discuss healthcare fraud cases, including hospice eligibility manipulation and ambulance transport schemes, and other fraud practices against unemployment and the PPP program. The discussion reveals how institutional constraints, technological limitations, and policy design choices create opportunities for both beneficial and harmful rule violations. They also analyze the ROI of fraud prevention measures, the effectiveness of whistleblower incentives, and how bureaucratic systems can be redesigned to prevent abuse.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/defrauding-government-jetson-leder-luis

–

Sponsors: Check | WorkOS

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network

–

Links:

Jetson's website: https://sites.bu.edu/jetson/
Paper: Ambulance Taxis by Jetson Leder-Luis Ambulance Taxis: The Impact of Regulation and Litigation on Health Care Fraud
Paper: Did FinTech Lenders Facilitate PPP Fraud by John M Griffin, Samuel Kruger, Prateek Mahajan https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3906395
Paper: Is Fraud Contagious by John M Griffin https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4599654
Paper: Unemployment Insurance Fraud in the Debit Card Market by Jetson Leder-Luis with Umang Khetan, Yunrong Zhou and Jialan Wang https://www.nber.org/papers/w32527
Book: Recoding America by Jennifer Pahlka https://www.amazon.com/Recoding-America-Government-Failing-Digital-ebook/dp/B0B8644ZGY
Podcast: Jennifer Pahlka on Ezra Klein
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2VPErCIG1pbcnYFBojrKcG
Podcast: Dave Guarino on Odd Lots https://open.spotify.com/episode/43HI3NuxZGsl13U365xZxa
Bits About Money https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/
Related Complex Systems episodes: Dan Davies and Dave Guarino's episodes

–

Twitter:
@patio11

@jetson_econ

–
Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:04) Overview of Medicare/Medicaid

(02:41) Estimated $50-100B fraud losses

(03:31) Taxonomy of healthcare fraud

(08:04) Hospice fraud; potentially saved money

(16:33) A $10 billion asterisk: ambulances for dialysis patients

(21:30) Sponsors: Work OS | Check

(24:45) Complexities of fraud detection and prevention

(39:02) Pandemic fraud

(41:34) Findings on PPP loans fraud

(48:19) Supply chain of fraud

(52:06) Policy and enforcement challenges

(01:08:32) Whistleblower programs

(01:14:54) Final thoughts

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

How real estate investing works with Moses Kagan Oct 17, 2024

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Moses Kagan, co-founder of Adaptive Realty, ReSeed, and Reconvene. Their deep dive into real estate investing and property management covers the different classes of apartment buildings, the challenges of property management, and the complexities of financing structures in the industry. They examine how the internet has transformed capital raising, the significance of cap rates, the effects of supply and demand on property values, and a comparison of the real estate markets in different major cities.

The episode is in many ways a follow up to Patrick’s conversation with Jim McKenzie and offers a window into the opaque world of real estate investment.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/real-estate-moses-kagan/

–

Sponsor: Check

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

Moses Kagan's blog:https://kagansblog.com/
Reconvene Conference: https://www.reconvene.com/

Seth Godin’s book Permission Marketing: https://www.amazon.com/Permission-Marketing-Strangers-Friends-Customers/dp/0684856360

Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/
Jim McKenzie on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ocJirzGTStuf0K9ITM21X

–

Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro

(00:25) Understanding the stigma of the maligned landlord

(04:07) Landlord spectrum: from mom-and-pops to institutional players

(05:29) Inside Adaptive Realty

(06:13) Owner vs. property manager

(07:34) Challenges and complexities of property management

(15:00) Capital stacks and loans
(18:17) Sponsor: Check

(26:25) The role of banks and underwriting in real estate

(40:28) Federal subsidies and small scale landlords

(44:26) Understanding commercial real estate classes

(46:20) Challenges of Class C assets

(47:13) Explaining cap rates

(52:20) Raising equity for real estate deals

(54:16) The syndication process

(56:30) The role of brokers and execution risk

(01:00:52) Legal structures and documentation

(01:10:52) The power of networking and reputation

(01:23:14) The impact of supply and demand on rents

(01:28:03) Wrap

Telling the tech story Oct 10, 2024

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Erik Torenberg, investor and the media entrepreneur behind Turpentine, explore the evolving relationship between tech journalism and the industry it covers. They discuss how fictional portrayals of industries greatly inform how jobseekers understand those industries, and how the industries understand themselves.

They cover the vacuum in quality tech reporting, the emergence of independent media companies, and industry heavyweights with massive followings. Patrick also brings up the phenomenon of Twitter/Slack crossovers, where coordinated social media action is used to influence internal company policies and public narratives. They examine how this dynamic, combined with economic pressures and ideological motivations, has led to increased groupthink in tech journalism.

Expanding on themes covered in Kelsey Piper’s episode of Complex Systems, this conversation makes more legible the important ways media affects tech, even though tech is arguably a more sophisticated industry – and why there is a need to move beyond simplistic narratives of "holding power accountable" to provide nuanced, informative coverage that helps people understand tech’s impact on society.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/tech-media-erik-torenberg

–
Sponsors: WorkOS | Check

Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to https://checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

Bits About Money, “Fiction and Finance” https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/fiction-about-finance/

Byrne Hobart’s essay on The Social Network https://byrnehobart.medium.com/the-social-network-was-the-most-important-movie-of-all-time-9f91f66018d7

Kelsey Piper on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/33rHTZVowaq76tCTaKJfRB
–

Twitter:
@patio11
@eriktorenberg
–
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro

(00:27) Fiction and Finance: The power of narrative

(01:41) The Social Network's impact on career choices

(03:34) Cultural perceptions and entrepreneurship

(06:04) Media influence and tech industry perception

(11:01) The role of tech journalism

(14:15) Social media's impact on journalism

(19:39) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check

(21:54) The intersection of media and tech

(39:22) Public intellectualism in tech

(57:40) Wrap

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

The hundred-year-old telegram worth $5 million, with Jim McKenzie Oct 03, 2024

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by his father, Jim McKenzie, for an intimate and in depth exploration of commercial real estate development. They unravel the complex web of relationships, regulations, and often absurd situations that shape our built environment. From the intricacies of curb cuts and driveway permits to the art of navigating local politics and lobbyists, the conversation offers a rare glimpse into the hidden mechanisms of urban development. Jim shares the highlights from his career like transforming day-old bread stores into bank branches, dealing with Chicago's infamous aldermen, and spelunking in archives to find century-old telegrams with enforceable contractual implications.
–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/the-hundred-year-old-telegram-worth-5-million-with-jim-mckenzie-2/

–

Sponsor: Check

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/why-is-that-bank-branch-there/

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:27) Understanding real estate development with Jim

(03:13) The great rail lease story

(20:02) How real estate ownership is conducted

(25:58) Real estate acquisition strategies

(28:39) Sponsor: Check

(29:41) Banks and location

(34:25) Day-old bread: an opportunity

(38:45) The Walgreens development dilemma

(40:22) Strategic offers and unusual numbers

(42:25) The power of personal relationships

(46:37) Navigating real estate offers and execution quality

(52:51) The LaSalle Bank acquisition and its impact

(54:39) The 2008 quadruple whammy

(58:39) The West Town shopping center opportunity

(01:01:44) The complexities of real estate deals

(01:14:24) The 2008 financial crisis and its ripple effects

(01:15:36) The energy industry resurgence post-Ukraine incursion

(01:16:07) Navigating utility easements and real estate

(01:21:43) The complexities of curb cuts and driveway permits

(01:23:46) Chicago's political landscape and real estate development

(01:32:37) Lobbying and political influence in development

(01:51:58) Wrap

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

Bits, Bytes, and Burgers with Byrne Hobart Sep 26, 2024

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Byrne Hobart, writer of The Diff, for a follow up conversation about “whales” – and so much more – across the gaming, aviation, software, hospitality and fast food industries. Patrick and Byrne also discuss their writing process, knowledge management, and how they use AI tools.
–

Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/byrne-hobart-whales-miscellany

–

Sponsors: Check | WorkOS

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network

–

Links:

The Diff thediff.co
Capital Gains capitalgains.thediff.co
Byrne Hobart’s book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation
Kongregate Presentation:
- Video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7SDByLlCHw)
- Slides (https://blog.kongregate.com/dont-call-them-whales-f2p-spenders-and-virtual-value/)

–

Twitter:

@patio11

@byrnehobart

–

Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:45) Economics of video game currencies
(02:56) Pricing strategies in mobile gaming
(05:08) Monetization skew towards high-end players
(08:08) VIP systems and casino host analogy
(11:08) Whale behavior in casual games
(15:03) Hyper-consuming outliers in other industries
(19:09) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check
(21:25) Hobbies and opportunity costs
(23:01) Custom software for tech billionaires
(26:30) Evolution of website development
(29:55) Restaurant websites and delivery apps
(40:17) McDonald's take rates
(44:59) Restaurant groups
(53:34) Tech company cafeterias and employee benefits
(57:57) Google's business model and economic feedback loops
(1:00:57) Early Google investment anecdote
(1:02:16) Writing as a memory aid
(1:04:46) Using ChatGPT for memory assistance
(1:10:30) LLMs as writing and coding aids
(1:13:34) Children's interaction with ChatGPT
(1:18:11) Arguing with LLMs and using them for research
(1:03:00) Wrap

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

Decisions Nobody Made, policy edition, with Dave Guarino Sep 19, 2024

In this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Dave Guarino, a software engineer and policy wonk. They explore the complexities and challenges of public programs, focusing on SNAP aka CalFresh in California, where Dave was the founding engineer and then director. They discuss how society’s complex preferences become policy, driving obviously bad UXes (like 200+ questions for an application) for structural reasons. Patrick and Dave debate structural issues within government agencies that lead to these inefficiencies, the lack of user-centric design, misaligned incentives, a “cavernous gap” in feedback loops, and surprisingly simple ways anyone can influence public policy and improve government systems.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/government-software-dave-guarino/

–

Sponsors: Check | WorkOS

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network

–

Links:

Dave Guarino's newsletter: https://daveguarino.substack.com/

Dan Davies episode of Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH

–

Twitter:

@patio11

@allafarce

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:03) Complexity of naming government programs

(03:45) How policy decisions are made

(07:19) Why SNAP applications are so complex

(14:17) Why no one stops overly complex applications

(18:44) Political economy of different benefit programs

(24:56) Sponsor: Check | WorkOS

(26:13) Limited visibility into user experience

(29:24) Lack of application completion rate tracking

(35:27) Starting where you are

(43:44) Challenges of modernizing legacy systems

(48:35) Broken feedback loops in government

(53:01) Tech's understanding of service design

(57:07) Issues with improper payments methodology

(1:04:45) Effective ways to influence policy

(1:09:43) Increasing agency in government agencies

(1:14:56) Getting niche policy ideas into circulation

(1:18:04) Importance of frontline knowledge and user feedback

(1:21:33) Improving government services

(1:22:06) Wrap

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

True Crime, banking edition Sep 12, 2024

In this episode of Complex System, the tables are turned and media entrepreneur/investor Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick’s essays from Bits About Money.

Patrick discusses the three stages of money laundering - placement, layering, and integration - and how the financial system has been deputized to act as law enforcement. The conversation touches on the unintended consequences of strict regulations, including their impact on economic growth and financial inclusion.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/true-crime-banking-edition

–

Sponsors: WorkOS | Check

Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

Seeing Like a Bank https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/seeing-like-a-bank/

KYC and AMI: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/kyc-and-aml-beyond-the-acronyms/

Money Laundering and AML Compliance: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/money-laundering-and-aml-compliance/

Turpentine Media: www.turpentine.co

Turpentine network for Tech Founders & Execs: www.turpentinenetwork.co

–

Twitter:

@patio11

@eriktorenberg

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:33) Seeing like big tech

(06:31) AI, centralization, and information processing

(09:23) Crypto vs AI: Thiel's perspective

(10:30) Seeing like a bank: ledgers and customer service

(19:57) Future of banking customer service

(22:27) Societal goals vs banking efficiency

(28:58) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check

(31:15) Understanding KYC and AML

(35:16) Money laundering explained

(42:28) Financial system as law enforcement

(51:41) Ideal changes in the financial system

(52:34) Wrap

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

That time we accidentally created national healthcare infrastructure, with Dave Kasten Sep 05, 2024

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dave Kasten, to discuss their experiences building VaccinateCA, a charitable effort that collected, collated, and distributed vaccine distribution information during the COVID-19 pandemic. (If you Googled for the vaccine, the search results likely came from VaccinateCA’s data.) They cover the challenges of rapidly scaling a volunteer-driven organization, the lessons learned about public health infrastructure, the intricacies of interfacing with government bureaucracy, and reasons to be cautiously optimistic about tech/government collaboration.

Expanding on a theme from recent episodes (see: Casey Handmer), Dave and Patrick cover the stark differences between government and tech sector’s approach to problem-solving. They offer insights into the often-misunderstood world of government operations, the individuals who make it function, and the "scar tissue" of regulations that can both protect and hinder progress.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/tech-government-dave-kasten/

–

Sponsors: WorkOS | Check

Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

The Story of VaccinateCA, Works in Progress https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-story-of-vaccinateca/

https://davekasten.substack.com/

https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/

Complex Systems episode ft. Kelsey Piper (Spotify): https://open.spotify.com/episode/33rHTZVowaq76tCTaKJfRB

–

Twitter:

@patio11

@David_Kasten

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:23) Dave Kasten’s unique career path

(01:37) The beginning of VaccinateCA

(03:09) Early challenges and volunteer efforts

(07:24) Volunteer coordination and call center operations

(10:55) Navigating policies and procedures

(14:33) Navigating policies and prioritization

(21:00) Adapting to volunteer feedback

(22:50) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check

(25:07) Public reception and media involvement

(35:40) Government and institutional responses

(45:59) Differences between tech and government approaches

(47:52) Challenges in pandemic information dissemination

(49:10) Accuracy and information systems

(53:43) Government and agile development

(56:51) Bureaucratic constraints and historical practices

(01:08:55) Government workforce and technological challenges

(01:22:34) The importance of policy engagement

(01:33:42) Wrap

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

The mad science of drilling the earth with Austin Vernon Aug 29, 2024

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Austin Vernon, a petroleum engineer, to discuss the technology and economics of fracking. Austin explains the evolution of drilling technology, the financial ecosystem supporting the oil industry – including the unique "doctor and lawyer money" funding model – and the complex interplay of mineral rights laws and state/local politics in the United States. Patrick and Austin also discuss the cross-pollination of technologies between fracking and emerging fields like geothermal energy extraction.

–

Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/fracking-austin-vernon/

–

Sponsors: Check | WorkOS

Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

Austin Vernon's Blog: https://austinvernon.site/

–

Twitter:

@patio11

@Vernon3Austin

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:38) Fracking technology and horizontal drilling

(05:12) The history and development of fracking techniques

(12:26) Communication methods in drilling operations, including mud pulse technology

(15:50) The economics of drilling operations

(17:28) Scale and cost comparisons between different types of drilling projects

(19:30) Safety considerations in onshore vs offshore drilling

(20:50) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check

(24:04) Discussion of small-scale "mom and pop" oil operations

(27:13) The impact of oil drilling on local economies

(31:45) The lifecycle of fracked wells and their long-term production

(36:15) Financing in the oil and gas industry

(39:19) Unique aspects of US mineral rights laws and leasing practices

(42:38) The process of setting up and funding new drilling operations

(52:55) Environmental concerns and groundwater protection measures in fracking

(56:40) The physical footprint of drilling operations

(59:12) Learning curves in fracking and geothermal energy extraction

(59:56) Diamond drill bits are not quite forever

(01:03:59) Where fracking goes from here

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

Balancing control and chaos: cybernetics, fraud, and modern organizations with Dan Davies Aug 22, 2024

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dan Davies, author of Lying for Money, and The Unaccountability Machine. They discuss how cybernetics–the study of control and communication in complex systems–applies to modern organizations and decision-making. Dan and Patrick discuss how organizations change as they grow, financial fraud and its relevance to systems design, and the process of writing nonfiction books. The conversation touches on pathologies like what happens when organizations insulate decisionmakers from communications channels to on-the-ground reality.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/dan-davies-organizations-fraud/

–

Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:
Dan Davies, Lying for Money

Dan Davies, The Unaccountability Machine: Why Big Systems Make Terrible Decisions — and How the World Lost Its Mind

Dan Davies Substack: https://backofmind.substack.com/

James Gleick, The Information

Malcolm K. Sparrow, License to Steal: How Fraud Bleeds America's Health Care System

–

Twitter:

@patio11

@dsquareddigest

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:26) The Unaccountability Machine

(01:38) History and fundamentals of cybernetics

(08:10) Operations research and its evolution

(12:08) Theory of the Firm, revisited

(15:21) Monopolizing math for fun and profit

(18:38) Sponsor: Check

(19:50) Role of black boxes in systems

(25:11) AI and the future of system management

(30:02) Accountability sinks and organizational issues

(38:44) Optimism about future of organizational design

(43:45) Empowering employees: the CEO’s open door policy

(46:31) Lying for Money

(51:57) Psychology of fraudsters

(01:02:52) Fraudogenic environments

(01:09:49) Journey of becoming a published author

(01:18:13) Effective ways to sell books

(01:22:33) Wrap

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer Aug 15, 2024

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Casey Handmer, rocket scientist turned CEO of Terraform Industries. Casey discusses the rapid advancements in solar power, the bureaucratic challenges of NASA, the incomprehensible success of SpaceX, and the evolving energy landscape. Casey touches on his experiences at JPL revealing how the organization’s fear of waste and rigid processes often stifle innovation and efficiency.

The conversation then shifts to Terraform Industries' mission to create synthetic natural gas from sunlight and air, potentially revolutionizing the energy sector. The conversation dives into the complexities of large-scale systems, from space exploration to renewable energy, offering insights into how innovation and smart policy can shape a more sustainable and prosperous future.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/solar-economics/

–

Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

Terraform Industries: https://terraformindustries.com/

SpaceX: https://www.spacex.com/

JPL: https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/

Book: The Alchemy of Air: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3269091-the-alchemy-of-air

–

Twitter:
@patio11
@CJHandmer

-

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:25) Casey’s startup: Terraform Industries

(00:48) The rise of solar power

(02:19) Solar power vs. traditional energy sources

(05:18) Economic and industrial impacts of solar

(09:02) Challenges in aviation and energy

(19:39) The role of policy in clean energy

(22:30) Sponsor: Check

(23:41) Casey’s experience at NASA and JPL

(34:17) SpaceX, Elon Musk and the US private space actors

(44:05) Solving problems and workplace politics

(45:10) Spreadsheets create their own reality, film at eleven

(48:35) Organizational challenges at NASA

(49:40) Challenges of innovation in bureaucracies

(51:07) The role of NASA and government in innovation

(55:25) The housing theory of everything

(58:36) Empowering employees for success

(01:02:41) Terraform Industries’ vision

(01:07:28) The future of energy and carbon neutrality

(01:10:52) The importance of hydrocarbons in aviation

(01:15:47) Challenges with hydrogen as a fuel

(01:18:21) Development of synthetic fertilizers

(01:21:54) Environmental considerations on industrial progress

(01:22:55) Wrap

Bet on it: Zvi Mowshowitz on professional gambling, trading, and AI futures Aug 08, 2024

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Zvi Mowshowitz (TheZvi) to discuss his wide-ranging career as a professional Magic: The Gathering player, sports gambler, equities trader, public intellectual on the covid-19 epidemic, and AI-focused journalist. They go into depth on how trading happens in less formal markets with lessons that resonate in more formal markets. They also explore the fallacies of rational decision-making in large organizations, the significance of obsession and practice in achieving excellence, and exchange predictions on AI.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/betting-trading-zvi-mowshowitz/

–

Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

–

Twitter:

@patio11

@TheZvi

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:16) Meet Zvi Mowshowitz

(04:11) Trading and Magic: The Gathering

(07:24) Professional sports gambling

(11:58) Navigating the sportsbook market

(22:33) Sponsor: Check

(23:48) Financial markets vs. sports betting

(34:02) Covid-19 early predictions

(43:21) Covid-19 policy failures and blame

(49:52) Vaccine rollout chaos

(01:01:11) The importance of scaling effective strategies

(01:14:46) AI predictions

(01:23:58) Wrap

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: Turpentine.co

Betting on the future via prediction markets, with Stephen Grugett of Manifold Aug 01, 2024

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philosophical value of prediction markets.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prediction-markets-stephen-grugett/

–

Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

Manifold https://manifold.markets/
Bits About Money https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/

–

Twitter:
@patio11

@ManifoldMarkets

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:26) Understanding prediction markets

(02:15) Manifold's calibration and performance

(06:48) The role of bots in prediction markets

(10:52) User-created markets and community practices

(15:49) Forecasting, and superforecasters

(18:26) Crafting good markets on Manifold

(23:07) Sponsor: Check

(24:20) Evolution of Manifold's loan system

(26:13) Market participation and capital efficiency

(27:57) The LK-99 superconductor markets on Manifold

(28:57) Social aspects of market participation

(32:31) Building Manifold and user growth trajectory

(34:57) Innovative use cases for prediction markets

(38:52) Prediction market vs. traditional market

(42:22) Play money markets with real cash prizes

(46:14) Historical and regulatory context of prediction markets

(49:32) The importance of market optics

(50:44) Wrap

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

Reporting on tech with Kelsey Piper Jul 25, 2024

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Kelsey Piper, a journalist for Vox’s Future Perfect. Kelsey recently reported on equity irregularities at OpenAI in May of 2024, leading to an improvement of their policies in this area. We discuss the social function of equity in the technology industry, why the tech industry and reporters have had a frosty relationship the last several years, and more.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/reporting-tech-kelsey-piper/

–

Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

–

Twitter:

@patio11

@KelseyTuoc

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:28) Kelsey Piper's journey into tech journalism

(01:34) Early reporting

(03:16) How Kelsey covers OpenAI

(05:27) Understanding equity in the tech industry

(11:29) Tender offers and employee equity

(20:00) Dangerous Professional: employee edition

(28:46) The frosty relationship between tech and media

(35:44) Editorial policies and tech reporting

(37:28) Media relations in the modern tech industry

(38:35) Historical media practices and PR strategies

(40:48) Challenges in modern journalism

(44:48) VaccinateCA

(56:12) Reflections on Effective Altruism and ethics

(01:03:52) The role of Twitter in modern coordination

(01:05:40) Final thoughts

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

Writing the first draft of financial history with Byrne Hobart Jul 18, 2024

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff, a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from scratch.

–

Full transcript here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/writing-history-byrne-hobart/

–

Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

The Diff https://www.thediff.co/
Capital Gains https://capitalgains.thediff.co/
Pre-order Byrne Hobart’s book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation https://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bubbles-Stagnation-Byrne-Hobart/dp/1953953476
Bits About Money https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/
Byrne's podcast The Riff: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1716646486

Referenced:

The Railway Mania of 1860 Paper by Andrew Odlyzko https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4006745
Seeing Like a State by James C. Scott https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Like-State-Certain-Condition/dp/0300078153
The Dead Pledge by Judge Earl Glock https://www.amazon.com/Dead-Pledge-Mortgage-1913-1939-Capitalism/dp/0231192533
The Oral History of Travel’s Greatest Acquisition Bookings.com https://skift.com/oral-history-of-booking-acquisition/

–

Twitter:

@patio11

@byrnehobart

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:25) The 30-year mortgage is an intrinsically toxic product

(04:46) Young households are the socially optimal holders of equities risk

(10:19) The structure of private equity returns

(14:18) Sponsor: Check

(15:32) Meta-analysis of the finance newsletter space

(19:54) Byrne’s aspirations for The Diff

(25:01) The origins of names

(27:19) The epistemics of a hedge fund

(34:26) Venture capital vs hedge funds

(38:13) Understanding scrapers

(41:20) How to learn about an industry from scratch

(45:37) The business of online travel agencies

(49:21) Wrap

–
Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

How the Smart Money teaches trading with Ricki Heicklen Jul 10, 2024

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Ricki Heicklen discuss Ricki’s innovative approaches to teaching trading. Trading is traditionally taught only by practitioners, to practitioners. The curricula that trading firms use are not published externally, to avoid empowering competitors. Ricki explains how she teaches trade mechanics, how markets and traders react to new information, and the security mindset necessary for trading, including protecting sensitive information and avoiding signaling strategies inadvertently.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/teaching-trading-ricki-heicklen/

–

Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:
https://rickiheicklen.com/

https://bayesshammai.substack.com/

https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/

–

Twitter:
@patio11
@tradegal_

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:58) Ricki’s background in trading

(01:07) Teaching trading: pedagogical approaches

(03:47) Challenges in learning trading