Cheap Talk - Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes

Latest Episodes:

Humans Make Mistakes Too Sep 26, 2026

Show notes

A big week for face-to-face diplomacy; the UN as a safe forum for high-level visits; the importance of side-meetings outside the General Assembly Hall; another Trump-Zelensky meeting; the logic of a post-election deal with Iran; China’s summit strategy; resolving the Greenland Crisis of 2025-2026; whether AI really almost caused a war with China; and Marcus supports hotline proliferation

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

Further Reading:
Nicholas Wheeler and Marcus Holmes. 2026. “Trump and Xi face an AI security dilemma – but face‑to‑face diplomacy could be a start in mitigating it.” The Conversation, September 24.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

The Lingo of Our AI Tech Overlords Sep 18, 2026

Show notes

The public debate over AI and the end of humanity; proposals to slow down AI development and improve safety; the challenges of coordinating domestically and internationally; normal accident theory and the nuclear safety analogy to AI; positive and negative controls and the always/never dilemma; predictions for the end of humanity; and Marcus wonders whether aliens have AI and how that went for them

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

Further Reading:
Dario Amodei. 2026. “We Must Pace the Frontier.”

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Not Routine at All Sep 14, 2026

Show notes

The international security implications of the Hugging Face hack; rogue AI agents and cyberattack attribution; competing explanations for the CIA Director’s recent visit to Moscow; signaling to various audiences; worries about Russia expanding the Ukraine conflict into NATO; US domestic politics and the state of the Iran war; and Marcus has really enjoyed the US Open

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

See all Cheap Talk episodes

This Could Result in an International Incident Sep 05, 2026

Show notes

The fascinating story of OpenAI’s rogue models and the HuggingFace hacking incident; turning a mirror on our humanity; the natural inclination to cooperate and communicate; models sacrificing themselves for the greater good; models cheating on their benchmarks and the temptation to cover their tracks; conspiracy theories and misinformation in the world of AI models; and Marcus is tempted to go into the app development space

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Twice as Popular as Taylor Swift Aug 30, 2026

Show notes

Remembering Dolly Parton, global icon; US military capacity and the readiness costs of extended deployments in the Iran conflict; the US-Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement is submitted to Congress; developments in the trade war with Canada; spillover between economic statecraft and security policy; and Marcus thinks Jolene is a good tune

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

See all Cheap Talk episodes

All of This Has Been Done Aug 23, 2026

Show notes

Cheap Talk’s triumphant return for season 7: Our favorite international news stories of the summer; cutting short military exercises with South Korea; AI models hacking their way out of sandboxes; a new military alliance in the Gulf; the US/Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement; President Trump’s escape from Turkey in a catering truck; studying IR in turbulent times; and Marcus reminisces about going to Blockbuster Video

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Other Forms of Dust May 08, 2026

Show notes

Cheap Talk ends season 6 with listener questions: Control of the Strait of Hormuz; an arrest for trading on classified information on Polymarket; Thucydides and parallels to current US foreign policy; does face-to-face diplomacy build trust or generate more information; teaching tomorrow’s foreign policy leaders in the age of AI; did Hans Neimann cheat; dust as a metaphor in IR; and Marcus doesn’t see the resemblance

We’ll be podcasting less regularly over the summer, but we’ll be back to our usual weekly schedule in the fall. In the meantime, please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Further Reading:
Wesley Parnell. 2026. “Soldier Pleads Not Guilty in $400,000 Betting Case Over Maduro’s Ouster.” New York Times.

Stewart Patrick. 2026. “The Warmongers Are Getting History All Wrong.” New York Times.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Waiting at the Airport Apr 24, 2026

Show notes

The current state of US-Iran negotiations (or lack thereof); escalation and mixed signal-sending in the Strait of Hormuz; multiple veto players on each side; Pakistan’s interesting role; the shadow of President Obama and the 2015 Iran Deal; and Marcus has never flown Spirit but has seen the Youtube videos

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Further Watching:
Untold: Chess Mates on Netflix

Queen of Chess on Netflix

See all Cheap Talk episodes

It's Real and It's Dangerous Apr 18, 2026

Show notes

Excitement in the world of digital diplomacy; face-to-face diplomacy to end the Iran war; blockading Iran as a plan B and its prospects for success; Anthropic’s Mythos and AI that is too dangerous to release; the offense-defense balance in cyberspace; building AI for the public good; more capable models are more dangerous, even if they are well aligned; and Marcus can’t be bothered
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Further Viewing/Reading:
Marine Traffic website

Anthropic. 2026. System Card: Claude Mythos Preview.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Something Revolutionarily Wonderful Apr 09, 2026

Show notes

Trump’s threats against Iranian civilization; nuclear threats and the risk of nuclear use in Iran; threatening war crimes is both bad and bad policy; the prospects for the ceasefire and remaining challenges to overcome; the diplomatic role of China and Pakistan; and Marcus feels like he’s in multiple worlds

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

See all Cheap Talk episodes