Cheap Talk - Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes

Latest Episodes:

There's Something Different About Them Oct 26, 2026

Show notes

New items in the Cheap Talk shop, including a Mathpocalypse t-shirt and AI sticker packs; placing blame about Ukraine’s access to Starshield; whether polling is damaging to the public discourse; what the polls tell us about the midterm elections; how the polls could be wrong; the role of international relations in the upcoming elections; the limited leverage of Democrats on US foreign policy even if they win; and Marcus enjoys voting
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

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Weeping for the Mathematicians Oct 17, 2026

Show notes

A series of unfortunate events in the Russia/Ukraine conflict; the effect of domestic politics on US assistance to Ukraine; the ability of Europe to provide intelligence and battlefield internet access; mathpocalypse and implications for cryptography and cybersecurity; how AI is shifting the offense/defense balance in cryptography; and Marcus is scared to open his new book

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

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Please send us your questions or comments!

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Envoys of Friendship Oct 03, 2026

Show notes

AI agents are like middle schoolers; assessing progress from the Trump/Xi summit; combatting the security dilemma with summitry; creating new communication channels for AI incidents; panda diplomacy and overplaying one’s panda hand; some small movements toward AI governance; why AI resorts to deception; and Marcus is a summit optimist

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

Further Reading:
Nicholas Wheeler and Marcus Holmes. 2026. “Trump and Xi face an AI security dilemma – but face‑to‑face diplomacy could be a start in mitigating it.” The Conversation, September 24.

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Humans Make Mistakes Too Sep 26, 2026

Show notes

A big week for face-to-face diplomacy; the UN as a safe forum for high-level visits; the importance of side-meetings outside the General Assembly Hall; another Trump-Zelensky meeting; the logic of a post-election deal with Iran; China’s summit strategy; resolving the Greenland Crisis of 2025-2026; whether AI really almost caused a war with China; and Marcus supports hotline proliferation

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

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The Lingo of Our AI Tech Overlords Sep 18, 2026

Show notes

The public debate over AI and the end of humanity; proposals to slow down AI development and improve safety; the challenges of coordinating domestically and internationally; normal accident theory and the nuclear safety analogy to AI; positive and negative controls and the always/never dilemma; predictions for the end of humanity; and Marcus wonders whether aliens have AI and how that went for them

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

Further Reading:
Dario Amodei. 2026. “We Must Pace the Frontier.”

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Not Routine at All Sep 14, 2026

Show notes

The international security implications of the Hugging Face hack; rogue AI agents and cyberattack attribution; competing explanations for the CIA Director’s recent visit to Moscow; signaling to various audiences; worries about Russia expanding the Ukraine conflict into NATO; US domestic politics and the state of the Iran war; and Marcus has really enjoyed the US Open

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

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This Could Result in an International Incident Sep 05, 2026

Show notes

The fascinating story of OpenAI’s rogue models and the HuggingFace hacking incident; turning a mirror on our humanity; the natural inclination to cooperate and communicate; models sacrificing themselves for the greater good; models cheating on their benchmarks and the temptation to cover their tracks; conspiracy theories and misinformation in the world of AI models; and Marcus is tempted to go into the app development space

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

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Twice as Popular as Taylor Swift Aug 30, 2026

Show notes

Remembering Dolly Parton, global icon; US military capacity and the readiness costs of extended deployments in the Iran conflict; the US-Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement is submitted to Congress; developments in the trade war with Canada; spillover between economic statecraft and security policy; and Marcus thinks Jolene is a good tune

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

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All of This Has Been Done Aug 23, 2026

Show notes

Cheap Talk’s triumphant return for season 7: Our favorite international news stories of the summer; cutting short military exercises with South Korea; AI models hacking their way out of sandboxes; a new military alliance in the Gulf; the US/Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement; President Trump’s escape from Turkey in a catering truck; studying IR in turbulent times; and Marcus reminisces about going to Blockbuster Video

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Please send us your questions or comments!

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Other Forms of Dust May 08, 2026

Show notes

Cheap Talk ends season 6 with listener questions: Control of the Strait of Hormuz; an arrest for trading on classified information on Polymarket; Thucydides and parallels to current US foreign policy; does face-to-face diplomacy build trust or generate more information; teaching tomorrow’s foreign policy leaders in the age of AI; did Hans Neimann cheat; dust as a metaphor in IR; and Marcus doesn’t see the resemblance

We’ll be podcasting less regularly over the summer, but we’ll be back to our usual weekly schedule in the fall. In the meantime, please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.

Further Reading:
Wesley Parnell. 2026. “Soldier Pleads Not Guilty in $400,000 Betting Case Over Maduro’s Ouster.” New York Times.

Stewart Patrick. 2026. “The Warmongers Are Getting History All Wrong.” New York Times.

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