Cheap Talk - Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes

Latest Episodes:

Bird Flu Is in All the Milk Jun 20, 2024

Show notes

The US allows Ukraine to strike into Russia; the effect of making this public knowledge; prospect theory and taking greater risks in the loss domain; the risk of escalation is context-dependent; wargaming as a way to understand an adversary’s response; how concerned should we be about a possible bird flu pandemic; and Marcus is a worrywart

We will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Check out the Cheap Talk online store at cheaptalk.shop

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Trust But Verify Jun 04, 2024

Show notes

The international implications of the Trump verdict; pandas are coming back to DC; trust vs. confidence in international relations; reciprocity in the nuclear nonproliferation regime; the real-world importance of trust semantics; interpersonal vs. inter state trust; precedent and trusting relations; and Marcus trusts Canada

Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Check out the Cheap Talk online store at cheaptalk.shop

Further Reading:
Andrew H. Kydd. 2005. Trust and Mistrust in International Relations. Princeton University Press.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

What a Time To Be Alive May 21, 2024

Show notes

The role of foreign affairs in the just-announced presidential debates; an international marathon update; orangutan diplomacy isn’t really diplomacy; the cutest diplomatic animals; cognac diplomacy also isn’t really diplomacy; Antony Blinken plays guitar and delivers a message of US support in Kyiv; does nuclear deterrence even work; and Marcus confesses his love for presidential debates

Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Check out the Cheap Talk online store at cheaptalk.shop

Further Reading:
Detroit Free Press Marathon

Heather Chen. 2024. “An ape for palm oil? Why critics say Malaysia’s ‘orangutan diplomacy’ plan is problematic.”CNN.com.

Associated Press. 2024. “Call it Cognac Diplomacy: France offered China’s Xi a special drink, in a wink at their trade spat.”

Watch Antony Blinken play Rocking’ in the Free World in a Kyiv Bar

Paul Poast. 2024. “What We Don’t Know About Nuclear Deterrence Could Hurt Us.” World Politics Review.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Sting Operation May 09, 2024

Show notes

The role of bees in international politics; Panda diplomacy is happening; Ukraine’s tenuous position against Russia; prospects for a US/China AI arms control process; letting AI decide to deploy nuclear weapons; the State Department’s new digital and cyber strategy; and Marcus is no entomologist

Please subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice

Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Further Reading:
Sarah Kliff. 2024. “Honeybees Invaded My House, and No One Would Help.” New York Times.

Alan Rappeport. 2024. “Giant Pandas Are Returning to San Diego, China Announces.” New York Times.

Edward Geist. 2024. “Building a Foundation for Strategic Stability with China on AI.” RAND Corporation.

US Department of State. 2024. Building Digital Solidarity: The United States International Cyberspace & Digital Policy Strategy.

David E. Sanger. 2024. “A New Diplomatic Strategy Emerges as Artificial Intelligence Grows.” New York Times.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Can't We Just Enjoy the Moment? Apr 29, 2024

Show notes

Panda diplomacy, local edition; what is diplomacy, anyway; Israel’s retaliation against Iran; a success story for international diplomacy; a restrained response as a particular kind of signal; the TikTok ban is happening; US aid to Ukraine is happening; Russian strategy in response to this aid; US-Taiwan military collusion; and Marcus thinks things are looking up

Please subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice

Please send us your questions! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Jeff’s book, Signing Away the Bomb, is now available in paperback!

Further Reading:
Heather Knight. 2024. “San Francisco Mayor Gives Panda Diplomacy a Try.” New York Times.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

We Consider This Matter Closed Apr 18, 2024

Show notes

TikTok as an information-gathering platform; worries about a wider war in the Middle East; the signal sent by Iran’s attack against Israel; a missile defense success story; how technology affects the risk of escalation; Iran’s nuclear program as a potential target for Israel; cyberattacks in gray zone conflict; a chance for diplomacy to work; and Marcus is hopeful that he is right

Please subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice

Please send us your questions! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Jeff’s book, Signing Away the Bomb, is now available in paperback!

Further Reading/Listening:
Cheap Talk Podcast. March 22, 2024. “Mostly Golden Retriever Videos.” With Special Guest Jaime Settle.

Tiffany Hsu and Steven Lee Myers. 2024. “China’s Advancing Efforts to Influence the U.S. Election Raise Alarms.” New York Times.

Gaby Del Valle. 2024. “Report: TikTok’s efforts to silo US data are ‘largely cosmetic.’” The Verge.

Cheap Talk Recommends:
Shogun (Hulu)

Love is Blind, Season 5 (Netflix)

Ripley (Netflix)

The Magic Prank Show with Justin Willman (Netflix)

Magic for Humans (Netflix)

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Their Own Little Animosities Apr 12, 2024

Show notes

Fragmentation in the international relations discipline; normal science versus overarching theory; insights from the International Studies Association annual conference; the best name for a political science department; the US-Japan state visit; state dinners as a signal of alliance ties; insulating the US-Japan relationship from a future Trump administration; Japan’s increasing role in defense cooperation; and Marcus prefers running uphill

Please subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice

Please send us your questions! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Jeff’s book, Signing Away the Bomb, is now available in paperback!

Further Reading:
Michael D. Shear. 2024. “To Counter China’s Rising Power, Biden Looks to Strengthen Ties With Japan.” New York Times.

Cheap Talk recommends:
Otter.ai (AI meeting notes)

Perplexity.ai (AI-powered information discovery)

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Spend Those Escalatory Activities Wisely Apr 01, 2024

Show notes

What is happening with the Apple Vision Pro; recent Chinese cyber activity; signaling and deterrence in the cyber domain; building and maintaining cyber trust; demonstrating a capability without losing it; the psychological impact of potential cyberattacks; managing the overall US-China relationship in the midst of cyber incidents; extending the US cyber umbrella; cyber-intrusions into the electoral system in democracies; and Marcus likes power

Please subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice

Please send us your questions! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Further reading/listening:
David E. Sanger and Mark Landler. 2024. “U.S. and Britain Accuse China of Cyberespionage Campaign.” New York Times.

Cheap Talk Podcast. 2023. “Giving ChatGPT Our Nuclear Codes.”

Cheap Talk recommends:
True Detective: Night Country on Max

Shogun on FX/Hulu

3 Body Problem on Netflix

World War II: From the Frontlines on Netflix

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Mostly Golden Retriever Videos Mar 22, 2024

Show notes

Jaime Settle joins Cheap Talk to discuss her research on social media networks; pending legislation to ban TikTok; how social media influences political knowledge and mobilization; the importance of the algorithm to the social media experience; what it is like to work with Meta to conduct research on Facebook; and Marcus is not afraid to take a stand

Jaime Settle is the Cornelia Brackenridge Talbot Professor of Government and Data Science at William & Mary. Check out her work on Google Scholar.

Subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice

Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Support the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shop

Read Jaime Settle’s books:
Frenemies: How Social Media Polarizes America
What Goes Without Saying: Navigating Political Discussion in America (with Taylor Carlson)

Further reading/listening:
2020 Election Research Project. 2023. “First Four Papers from US 2020 Facebook & Instagram Research Election Study Published in Science and Nature.” Medium.

Cheap Talk Podcast. 2023. “It Comes Down to Paranoia.”

See all Cheap Talk podcasts

Armageddon, Not Just A Good Movie Anymore (Rebroadcast) Mar 12, 2024

Show notes

A rebroadcast of the October 16, 2022 episode of Cheap Talk: The sixtieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis; lessons from the crisis; the dangers of reasoning from analogy; why Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine; how NATO would respond if they did; gambling for resurrection; the US role in facilitating peace; and Marcus would prefer that countries refrain from using nuclear weapons

We’ll be back with a new episode of Cheap Talk soon!

Subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice

Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Support the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shop

Further Reading:
David E. Sanger. 2024. “Biden’s Armageddon Moment: When Nuclear Detonation Seemed Possible in Ukraine.” New York Times.

Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May. 1986. Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers. Free Press.

Yuen Foong Khong. 1992. Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965. Princeton University Press.

See all Cheap Talk episodes