Cheap Talk - Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes

Latest Episodes:

Summit of the Isolated Sep 14, 2023

Show notes

Kim Jong-Un’s takes the slow train to Russia; a refresher on the value of high-level summitry; Russia’s need for military supplies and what this says about the effectiveness of sanctions; the signal sent by Ukraine’s counteroffensive; setting expectations for military operations; and Marcus is impressed by the train

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Further reading:
Research on summitry by Minseon Ku.

Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt and Thomas Gibbons-Neff. 2023. “Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say.” New York Times.

Michael Kofman and Rob Lee. 2023. “Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months.” War on the Rocks.

Photo of treadmill with uneven terrain, from Alexandra S. Voloshina, Arthur D. Kuo, Monica A Daley, and Daniel P Ferris. 2013. “Biomechanics and energetics of walking on uneven terrain.” Journal of Experimental Biology.

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Our Puny Human Brains Sep 08, 2023

Show notes

Cheap Talk’s Season 4 Premiere: The trilateral alliance visits Camp David; US reassurance and nuclear proliferation in Asia; AI and international crises; computers can be biased, three not-very-persuasive arguments against US support for Ukraine; and Marcus racks up the frequent flier miles

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Further reading:
Marcus Holmes and Nicholas J. Wheeler. 2023. “Reaffirming alliance: The crucial importance of the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit.” The Hill.

Saruta Sayo, Frank O’Donnell, and Eunil Cho. 2023. “What does the US-Japan-South Korea summit at Camp David mean for the Asia-Pacific?” Asis-Pacific Leadership Network.

Cathy O’Neil. 2017. “The era of blind faith in big data must end.” TED Talk.

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The Guts to Stand Up for the Truth Jun 08, 2023

Show notes

A special summer episode of Cheap Talk: Hypersonic missiles and missile defense in Ukraine; signaling and the defense of Bakhmut; Ukraine’s path to NATO membership; alien spacecraft on earth; Apple’s Vision Pro announcement; diplomacy in virtual reality; military applications of augmented reality; and Marcus sympathizes with alien whistleblowers

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Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode, via email or voicemail

Further reading:
Phillips P. OBrien. 2023. “Weekend Update #31.” Phillips’s Newsletter Substack.

Leslie Kean and Ralph Blumenthal. 2023. “Intelligence Officials Say U.S. Has Retrieved Craft of Non-Human Origin.” The Debrief.

Apple’s Vision Pro

First impressions video: Marques Brownlee. 2023. “Apple Vision Pro Impressions!”

Amanda M. Buch, David M. Eagleman, and Logan Grosenick. 2022. “Engineering Diplomacy: How AI and Human Augmentation Could Remake the Art of Foreign Relations.” Science and Diplomacy.

“Sweden first to open embassy in Second Life.” 2007. Reuters.

Scott Padgett. ““The Virtual Sixth Sense” - Transforming Soldier Lethality Through Artificial Intelligence & Augmented Reality.” 2019. Small Wars Journal.

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Persist In Our Dream State Apr 28, 2023

Show notes

Social identity theory and international relations; the behavior of rogue states; US nuclear assurance to South Korea; the risk from deepfakes and how to address them; the current state of sports diplomacy; and Marcus is a complicated individual

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Further Reading:
Peter Baker and David E. Sanger. “In Turn to Deterrence, Biden Vows ‘End’ of North Korean Regime if It Attacks.” The New York Times.

Jeffrey M. Kaplow. 2022. “State Compliance and the Track Record of International Security Institutions: Evidence from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime.” Journal of Global Security Studies 7(1).

Vipin Narang. 2017. “Why Kim Jong Un wouldn’t be irrational to use a nuclear bomb first.” The Washington Post.

Claire Parker and Ana Vanessa Herrero. 2022. “Colombia discovers two shipwrecks, releases new images of sunken treasure.” The Washington Post.

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Tossing This Information to the Internet Apr 24, 2023

Show notes

The Discord intelligence leak; what we learned from the information; Egypt’s plan to sell weapons to Russia; China’s plan to sell weapons to Russia; US restraint and China’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict; how the leaker’s motives compare to other famous leaks; how the internet makes intelligence releases more damaging; assessing the intelligence impact of the leaks; the trade-off between intelligence sharing and the risk of leaks; and Marcus is a big lover of humans

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Further reading:
Adam Taylor. 2023. “The biggest revelations from The Post’s document leaks investigation.” The Washington Post.

Matt Tait. 2023. “Pentagon Leaks: What’s the Damage?” PwnAllTheThings Substack.

Valerie Plame Wilson. 2008. Fair Game: How a Top CIA Agent Was Betrayed by Her Own Government. Simon & Schuster.

“Cobblestone treadmill patent would eliminate running on pesky smooth surface.” 2009. TechCrunch.

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It's a Slam Dunk! Do It! Apr 12, 2023

Show notes

Looking back on the Iraq war after 20 years (and 1 month); lingering uncertainty about the reasons for the US invasion; the role (or lack thereof) of groupthink in that decision; the intelligence community’s judgment that Iraq had WMD and was reconstituting its nuclear weapons program; why the intelligence community got it wrong; lessons learned for intelligence analysis; the long-term repercussions of the Iraq war; and Marcus puts his cards on the table

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Further reading:
Max Fisher. 2023. “20 Years On, a Questions Lingers About Iraq: Why Did the U.S. Invade?” The New York Times.

US Director of Central Intelligence. 2002. “Iraq’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction.” National Intelligence Estimate. National Security Archive.

“War With Iraq Is Not In America’s National Interest.” 2002. The New York Times.

“Cobblestone treadmill patent would eliminate running on pesky smooth surface.” 2009. TechCrunch.

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Another Unenforceable International Edict Apr 01, 2023

Show notes

Nikki Haley’s experience at the United Nations; what it means to be a US ambassador; Russia’s statement about nuclear weapons in Belarus; the ICC’s arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin; credibility in international institutions; the power of international law on the margins; and Marcus considers future podcast guests

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Further reading:
Courtney Subramanian. 2023. “Garcetti sworn in as ambassador to India after two-year battle.” Los Angeles Times.

American Foreign Service Association. “Ambassador Tracker.”

Francesca Ebel. 2023. “West warns Putin against ‘dangerous’ nuclear rhetoric but downplays threat.” Washington Post.

Michael R. Gordon. 2023. “U.S. Stops Sharing Data on Nuclear Forces With Russia.” Wall Street Journal.

Amy Mackinnon, Christina Lu and Jack Detsch. 2023. “Putin Wanted by ICC Over Alleged War Crimes.” Foreign Policy.

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A Person With Feelings Mar 24, 2023

Show notes

The TikTok situation escalates; Russia pulls a reverse TikTok; the first image of the state; what is a state, anyway; AI tools are lying to us; Xi goes to Moscow; Russia harasses a US drone; and Marcus believes states are disembodied people with feelings and emotions

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Further reading/watching:
Sara Morrison. 2023. “Is TikTok too big to ban?” Vox.com.

Reuters. 2023. “Kremlin tells officials to stop using iPhones – Kommersant newspaper.”

Video of Russian aircraft intercepting US drone over Black Sea.

Rose Gottemoeller. 2023. “The Role of U.S. Diplomacy in Countering Russia’s Nuclear Threats and Misbehavior.” Texas National Security Review 6(2).

Blackberry – Official Trailer

The latest AI tools:
ChatGPT (GPT-4 is available to “plus” users who pay for access)

Bing AI

Google’s Bard

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It Comes Down To Paranoia Mar 09, 2023

Show notes

Russia’s international status and reputation after the invasion of Ukraine; TikTok and Huawei as threats to US national security; the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons development; and Marcus has too many distractions in his life

Send us feedback or ideas for future podcasts at cheaptalkpod@gmail.com or leave us a voice message

Further reading/watching
Jonathan Renshon. 2017. Fighting for Status. Princeton University Press.
“Putin’s Missed Handshakes” video
@unclogging_drains on TikTok

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Stumbled Into This Podcast Accidentally Mar 03, 2023

Show notes

Russia bails on the New START arms control treaty; Putin and prospect theory; the short and long term effects of the treaty suspension; why we have arms control treaties in the first place; overlapping international agreements; taking stock of Russia’s invasion one year in; European security transformed; the relevance of nuclear risk and nuclear deterrence today; and Marcus embraces conspiracy theories

Send us feedback or ideas for future podcasts at cheaptalkpod@gmail.com or leave us a voice message

Further listening:
On the nuclear taboo: Cheap Talk Podcast. 2020. “Outside the Bounds of Reasonable Behavior.” Season 1, Episode 3.

On international institutions: Cheap Talk Podcast. 2020. “Our Expectations Are Too High.” Season 1, Episode 4.

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