Catalyst with Shayle Kann

Latest Episodes:

The pace of home electrification Oct 19, 2023

Show notes

Heat pumps in 140 million U.S. homes by 2050 — that’s the goal laid out in Rewiring America’s recent report on the pace of home electrification. It’s a daunting target for a country that had heat pumps in only 17 million homes in 2020.

But we’re not that far off. According to Rewiring America, the U.S. is currently on track to install about five million heat pumps by 2025, only about two and a half million short of the pace we need to reach 140 million homes by midcentury.

So what can we do to close the gap? What about other major categories of home electrification like water heaters and induction stoves — are we on pace to reach net-zero targets there?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Stephen Pantano, head of market transformation at Rewiring America, about the organization’s Pace of Progress report. They cover topics like:

The adoption targets for water heaters, induction stoves, and other efficient home appliances
The roughly $9 billion in incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act that could accelerate adoption
The need for more data to get a better understanding of where and how to speed up adoption
Why heat pumps are a growing share of a shrinking heating and cooling market, and how that’s impacting slumping heat pump sales

Recommended Resources:

Rewiring America: Pace of Progress
Canary: New plan aims to quadruple heat-pump adoption in 25 states
Canary: Heat pumps outperform boilers and furnaces — even in the cold
Catalyst: How has US industrial policy impacted climatetech investment?

Sign up for Latitude Media’s Frontier Forum on January 29, featuring Crux CEO Alfred Johnson, who will break down the budding market for clean energy tax credits. We’ll dissect current transactions and pricing, compare buyer and seller expectations, and look at where the market is headed in 2024.

Catalyst is brought to you by BayWa r.e., a leading global renewable energy developer, service supplier, and distributor. With over 22GW in their project pipeline, BayWa r.e. is rethinking energy every day and at every level. Committed to being a solid partner for the long run, BayWa r.e. wants to work with you to help shape the future of energy. Learn more at bay.wa-re.com.

Catalyst is brought to you by Sungrow. Now in more than 150 countries, Sungrow’s solutions include inverters for utility-scale, commercial and industrial solar, plus energy storage systems. Learn more at us.sungrowpower.com.

How is U.S. industrial policy affecting actual climatetech investment? Oct 12, 2023

Show notes

In climatetech circles, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was a big deal. The expectation was that, combined with other parts of U.S. industrial policy like the CHIPS and Science Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the IRA would transform the American economy and ultimately slash U.S. carbon emissions.

We can’t see the impact on carbon emissions yet, but we can measure the initial effects on the economy. So how’s it going so far?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Trevor Houser, partner at the Rhodium Group, about the organization’s new Clean Investment Monitor, a database of climatetech investments developed with the MIT Center on Energy and Environmental Policy Research. Trevor highlights three different categories of policy impacts:

Sectors where policy accelerated existing trends, like solar deployment and EV sales.
Sectors where policy catalyzed new growth that probably would not have happened otherwise, like in manufacturing, hydrogen, carbon management, and sustainable aviation fuels.
Sectors that are declining despite policy incentives, like the deployment of wind and heat pumps.

They discuss the drivers behind these trends and cover topics like:

The regional clustering of manufacturing investment and new geographic hubs, like the Southwest.
The surprising growth in hydrogen made from steam methane reforming, also known as blue hydrogen.

Recommended Resources:

Rhodium Group: Clean Investment Monitor
Canary: Made in the USA: Ramping up clean energy manufacturing
Canary: US offshore wind pushes ahead despite industry turmoil

What electric forklifts teach us about creative policy [partner content] Oct 11, 2023

Show notes

This is a partner podcast episode, brought to you by DNV.

Wes Whited and Angie Ziech-Malek work for DNV designing efficiency, electrification, and decarbonization programs for utilities. And lately, they’ve been paying attention to electric forklifts.

There are 1.5 million forklifts sold in the U.S. every year. And converting that vast fleet to run on lithium-ion batteries could be a cost-effective way to boost electrification – and add a helpful resource for demand management to the grid.

Speeding up adoption means getting the utility involved in the education and promotion process. The forklift example is one of many creative approaches to program design that are emerging in the wake of the Inflation Reduction Act, which expanded incentives for a wide range of clean energy technologies.

In this episode, Wes and Angie talk with Stephen Lacey about how technology progress, creative thinking, and the Inflation Reduction Act are all aligning in transformative ways.

After you listen to the episode, make sure to read DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook North America.

Climate tech startups need strong techno-economic analysis (TEA) Oct 05, 2023

Show notes

We have a flash sale for Transition-AI: New York through October 9th. Use the code FLASH30 to get 30% off your ticket price to our event on AI + energy. Spots are limited, so don't miss out!

This might be our wonkiest topic yet: Techno-economic analysis, or TEA.

Before a startup has proven that its technology is commercially viable, it models how its technology would work. These TEAs include things like assumptions about inputs, prices, and market landscape. They help investors and entrepreneurs answer the question, will this technology compete?

TEAs are important to the success of an early-stage climate-tech company. And a lot of startups get them wrong. As an investor at Energy Impact Partners (EIP), Shayle and his team see a lot of TEAs—and have some pet peeves.

What can startups do to improve their TEAs?

In this episode, Shayle talks to his colleagues Dr. Greg Thiel, EIP’s director of technology, and Dr. Melissa Ball, EIP’s associate director of technology. They cover topics like:

Bad assumptions about things like levelized cost of production
Focusing on a component instead of a system
Focusing on unhelpful metrics
Using false precision—something Shayle calls “modeling theater”

Recommended Resources:

Activate: Techonomics: Establishing best practices in early stage technology modeling
Department of Energy: Techno-economic, Energy, & Carbon Heuristic Tool for Early-Stage Technologies (TECHTEST) Tool
National Renewable Energy Laboratory: Techno-Economic Analysis

Reviving the stagnant plant based meat market Sep 28, 2023

Show notes

It was 2020 and plant-based meats were hot. Sales were up 45% that year and expectations were high. The industry set its sights on performing as well as plant-based beverages, which had reached about a 15% dollar share of the U.S. cow-based milk market at the time. In the $300 billion U.S. meat market, a 15% share would be a massive $45 billion prize.

But then, starting in 2021, plant-based meats hit a wall. U.S. sales began three consecutive years of declines. Headlines described plant-based meats as “bleeding” and “just another fad”.

So what happened?

In this episode, Shayle talks to John Baumgartner, managing director of equity research for food and healthy living at Mizuho Securities. He explains the major factors that led to the decline—and why he’s still bullish on the long-term growth of the industry. They cover topics like:

Why the plant-based beverage category is so different from plant-based meats
Major factors in sales, including the Covid-19 bounce, flatlining household penetration, and inflation
The under-no-circumstances crowd that will not consider plant-based meats
Positive indicators for growth potential from other markets, such as Taiwan and western Europe
Improvements in taste, mouthfeel, health, and price that could reinvigorate the industry

Recommended Resources:

Mizuho Securities: Plant-Based Food Market Overview & Outlook
Good Food Institute: 2023 outlook: The state of the plant-based meat category
Deloitte: Plant-based meat gets a reality check

Fixing interconnection Sep 21, 2023

Show notes

Everything's bigger in Texas—the hats, the boots, the convenience stores. But its interconnection times? They’re surprisingly short.

In the U.S. it takes power generators four years on average to get approval to connect to the grid, and in some places, it takes far longer. In the Texas electricity market, it takes only about 1.5 years between interconnection request and agreement. And it costs way less to interconnect, too.

The results are telling. The Texas grid, operated by the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, has installed more wind power than any other state—40+ gigawatts worth. It’s also installed 19 gigawatts of solar power, second only to California. ERCOT has interconnected two times more generation than PJM, an electricity market in the Mid-Atlantic, even though PJM is two times larger than ERCOT in terms of peak load.

So what does Texas know about interconnection that the rest of the U.S. doesn’t? And how could other states learn from Texas?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Tyler Norris, PhD student at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment and former vice president of development at Cypress Creek Renewables. Tyler recently published a policy brief on how the U.S. could reform its interconnection process, applying lessons from ERCOT.

They cover topics like:

Why FERC’s system impact studies lead to long delays and high costs
ERCOT’s shorter and lower-cost process, called “connect-and-manage”

Recommended Resources:

Duke Nicholas Institute: Beyond FERC Order 2023: Considerations on Deep Interconnection Reform
Catalyst: Understanding the transmission bottleneck
FERC: E-1: Commissioner Clements Concurrence on Order No. 2023: Improvements to Generator Interconnection Procedures and Agreements
Brattle Group: Generation Interconnection and Transmission Planning

Stopping geoengineering, by accident Sep 14, 2023

Show notes

Solar geoengineering is a hot (er, cool?) topic these days. One method involves injecting a form of sulfur into the atmosphere to reflect solar radiation and help reduce global temperatures. But it could also cause unpredictable changes to ozone, rainfall, and ecosystems. So when a rogue startup began sending balloons of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere earlier this year, it sparked outrage.

But here’s the thing: We’ve been geoengineering our atmosphere for decades, just not intentionally. Scientists have long known that sulfur dioxide emissions from maritime shipping have a cooling effect on the atmosphere. They brighten clouds and reflect more solar radiation. We’ve also known that sulfur dioxide is a toxic air pollutant that causes tens of thousands of premature deaths per year.

So in 2020 when the International Maritime Organization, which regulates shipping, required ships to drastically cut their sulfur dioxide emissions, it reduced air pollution. But it also accidentally warmed the surface of the oceans.

So how big of a deal is this?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Dr. Dan Visioni, climate scientist and assistant professor at Cornell University’s Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. They cover topics like:

The mechanism behind marine cloud brightening and how it differs from stratospheric sulfate injection
Why the warming effect was so strong in the North Atlantic in particular
What we still don’t understand about the impact on global mean temperatures and regional weather, like heat waves and hurricanes
What this accidental experiment tells us about how someone could conduct a deliberate geoengineering experiment

Recommended Resources:

Catalyst is a co-production of Post Script Media and Canary Media.

Are you looking to understand how artificial intelligence will shape the business of energy? Come network with utilities, top energy firms, startups, and AI experts at Transition-AI: New York on October 19. Our listeners get a 10% discount with the code pspods10.

Catalyst is supported by Antenna Group. For 25 years, Antenna has partnered with leading clean-economy innovators to build their brands and accelerate business growth. If you're a startup, investor, enterprise, or innovation ecosystem that's creating positive change, Antenna is ready to power your impact. Visit antennagroup.com to learn more.

Catalyst is supported by RE+. RE+ is more than just the largest clean energy event, it’s a catalyst for industry innovation designed to supercharge business growth in the clean energy economy. Learn more: re-plus.com.

The food-energy nexus Sep 08, 2023

Show notes

Last time we talked to Dr. Michael Webber, we dug into the nexus between water and energy. This episode we’re diving into food. The connections are myriad.

Food itself is just a means of energy storage, and a particularly good one at that. While photosynthesis is remarkably inefficient—averaging only 0.3% globally, compared to 90% or more in an electric motor—it stores energy for weeks to years.

In the U.S. we use around 12% of our energy to produce food, in the form of inputs like diesel, fertilizer, and electricity. Meanwhile, the food system itself provides fuel to the rest of the energy system, through ethanol and other forms of bioenergy.

So how do all these things fit together?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Dr. Webber, professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Texas–Austin, and chief technology officer at Energy Impact Partners, where Shayle is a partner. They cover topics like:

The Green revolution, which added more energy to food production, improving yields while reducing the amount of people required
The categories of energy consumption, such as fertilizers, on-site fuel, transportation, the cold chain and cooking
Food waste, which in the U.S. reaches about 30 - 50% of edible food
Why buying local is not necessarily good for the environment
Why we should not use food for fuel, unless it’s waste by-products from food production
How climate change affects the food system, for example by reducing the efficiency of photosynthesis and requiring more refrigeration to reduce spoilage
The viability of indoor agriculture

Recommended Resources:

Climavores: Bursting the ‘eat local’ bubble
Catalyst: The 3 pathways to alternative proteins
Catalyst: From biowaste to ‘biogold’
Catalyst: How well does soil actually store carbon?

Catalyst is a co-production of Post Script Media and Canary Media.

Can the V2X dream become reality? Aug 31, 2023

Show notes

Here’s the dream: Millions of EVs plugged into their charging docks, working in concert to relieve stress on the world’s power grids. They reduce charging load or even inject energy back onto the grid. They back up renewables when the wind doesn’t blow or the sun doesn’t shine.

That’s the vision for managed charging, or V1G, and vehicle-to-grid, or V2G. There’s also a third technology called vehicle-to-home that allows an EV battery to power a building, just like a home battery. Collectively these technologies are called V2X.

There’s reason to think this V2X dream could become a reality. They’re already happening at small scales. And when they reach larger scales, the cumulative impact could be big. A recent Nature study found that by 2030 the total battery capacity across the world’s mobile batteries could be more than two terawatt hours, climbing to more than 30 terawatt hours by 2050.

But first, these technologies need to overcome some big barriers—costly grid upgrades, degrading batteries, drivers worried about being left without a charge—just to name a few.

So what will V2X actually look like?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Ty Jagerson, leader of V2X at GM. They cover topics like:

The contracts GM is signing with customers to manage their charging
Reassuring EV owners that managed charging is not going to leave them without a charge
What kind of compensation EV owners could get for V2G and whether the value to companies will be worth the costs
The carrots and sticks of V2G: compensation and time-of-use charges
Whether V2G will be more valuable for capacity or energy markets
Whether V2G will degrade batteries and violate manufacturer warranties

Recommended Resources:

Canary Media: Is ‘vehicle-to-everything’ charging ready for prime time?
Union of Concerned Scientists: EVs Can Support Power Grid Reliability and Reduce Costs. Here’s How.
Catalyst: Will charging infrastructure be a bottleneck for electric vehicles?

Catalyst is a co-production of Post Script Media and Canary Media.

Seeking the holy grail of batteries (Rerun) Aug 24, 2023

Show notes

If there were a holy grail of electric vehicle batteries, it would be low-weight, long-range, and fast-charging. It would last a million miles and cost less than anything produced today.

So in the booming EV battery market, what kind of battery will check all those boxes? Who will invent it? And do we really need all those features in one battery in the first place?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Sam Jaffe, vice president of battery solutions at E-Source. They trace the history of the two major competing lithium-ion chemistries: Lithium Iron (or ferrous) Phosphate (LFP) and Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC).

Sam and Shayle also discuss the factors that shaped this competition, like China, Tesla, and access to capital. They discuss new partnerships between battery manufacturers and automakers, including LG and GM, Samsung SDI and Stellantis, ACC and Mercedes

And they cover questions like:

Who decides which chemistries to develop — automakers or battery part manufacturers?
Will a small number of chemistries dominate or will there be a rapid diversification of battery chemistries to meet different needs?
Is fast charging a nice-to-have or need-to-have?
Will the rising costs of battery materials, especially lithium, slow the adoption of EVs?

Plus, Sam explains why he is no longer bearish on vehicle-to-grid (V2G) charging.

Catalyst is a co-production of Post Script Media and Canary Media.