Catalyst with Shayle Kann

Latest Episodes:

The EV market’s awkward teenage years Jul 25, 2024

Show notes

Automakers got ahead of their skis. EV sales are up globally and in the U.S., but growth has been slower than expected and uneven. After enjoying a wave of growth driven by early adopters, automakers overestimated demand of more cautious consumers and ended up producing more than buyers wanted. Now auto dealers are slashing prices to move cars off the lot.

So how did the market get here? And how can EVs appeal to the next wave of consumers?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Gene Berdichevsky, co-founder and CEO of anode material manufacturer Sila Nanotechnologies. Shayle and Gene cover topics like:

How high-performance cells can lead to lower-cost batteries
Why Gene says lithium-iron-phosphate may hit a ceiling in the market
The potential of sodium-ion batteries
Who can take advantage of production overcapacity
The limitations of the Inflation Reduction Act in the face of weak demand
How manufacturing is competing with other major loads, like data centers, for electricity
Solving the challenges of vehicle-to-grid

Recommended resources

Bloomberg: The Slowdown in US Electric Vehicle Sales Looks More Like a Blip

The Wall Street Journal: EVs Are Cheaper Than Ever. Can Car Buyers Be Won Over?

Catalyst: What’s really happening in the US EV market?

Catalyst is brought to you by Anza Renewables, a data, technology, and services platform for solar and storage buyers. Anza’s real-time market intel equips buyers with the essential data they need to get the best deals. Download Anza’s free Q2 Module Pricing Insights Report at go.anzarenewables.com/latitude

Catalyst is brought to you by Kraken, the advanced operating system for energy. Kraken is helping utilities offer excellent customer service and develop innovative products and tariffs through the connection and optimization of smart home energy assets. Already licensed by major players across the globe, including Origin Energy, E.ON, and EDF, Kraken can help you create a smarter, greener grid. Visit kraken.tech.

Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the global leader in integrated marketing, public relations, creative, and public affairs for energy and climate brands. If you're a startup, investor, or enterprise that's trying to make a name for yourself, Antenna Group's team of industry insiders is ready to help tell your story and accelerate your growth engine. Learn more at antennagroup.com.

Can chip efficiency slow AI's energy demand? Jul 18, 2024

Show notes

In March, Nvidia announced a new microchip designed for AI that is 25 times more energy efficient than its predecessor. Two months later, Google announced one with a 67% efficiency improvement. Today, the rest of the semiconductor industry is hyper focused on efficiency gains.

Will they save us from ballooning data center energy demands?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Christian Belady, former Microsoft vice president now focusing on data center advanced development. They unpack concerns about this new surge of demand and whether it’s different from the energy scare two decades ago. Back in 1999, researchers predicted that data centers could end up consuming half of U.S. electricity. But instead, demand remained largely flat at about 4% as cutting-edge hyperscale cloud computing displaced inefficient, on-premises servers.

And yet, driven by the AI boom, energy concerns are back. The Electric Power Research Institute predicts that data center loads could consume 9% of U.S. power generation by 2030. Demand is already rising fast, with emissions at both Google and Microsoft up significantly.

Shayle and Christian examine the factors driving those trends and what we can do about it, covering topics like:

Whether chip efficiency improvements will lead to energy savings or just more powerful computing
The upper limits of Moore’s Law
Energy, labor, and other big constraints on AI growth
Changing computing architecture to find energy savings
Enlisting data centers in integrated, or compulsory, demand response
Using AI to improve chip design

Recommended resources

Fierce Electronics: Power-hungry AI chips face a reckoning, as chipmakers promise ‘efficiency’

Latitude Media: The data center of the future looks like a massive virtual power plant

Latitude Media: Enchanted Rock is selling utilities on flexible data center connection

Latitude Media: Energy is now the ‘primary bottleneck’ for AI

Catalyst: Under the hood of data center power demand

The reshoring of American solar trackers [partner content] Jul 17, 2024

Show notes

While we were all at home during Covid desperately trying to get our hands on toilet paper, exercise equipment, and home furnishings, solar executives like Dan Shugar were trying to get steel and power electronics to massive PV farms under development.

As equipment and workforce disruptions spiraled due to lockdowns, the cost of installed solar started going up for the first time in nearly a decade.

“Costs just skyrocketed. And so at this point in my career. I wasn't going to proceed like that,” explained Shugar, the CEO of Nextracker, the world’s top solar tracking company.

It became very obvious that Nextracker had to build more US manufacturing to serve local markets, where utility-scale PV was still booming. And within a couple years, they built a large network of factories.

“We've catalyzed over 20 factories across the United States with over 30 gigawatts of major components being manufactured here and shipping finished goods today. That's just a huge retooling of the supply chain,” explained Shugar.

To date, Nextracker has shipped 100 gigawatts of trackers. More and more of them are being produced in key locations around the US.

In this episode, produced in collaboration with Nextracker, Stephen Lacey speaks with Dan Shugar about progress in onshoring, innovations in tracker technology, and where the solar industry is headed next.

Learn more about Nextracker’s efforts to bolster domestic content for solar power generation in the US.

Decarbonizing the high seas Jul 12, 2024

Show notes

While aviation may be converging on one main pathway to decarbonization — sustainable aviation fuel — maritime shipping may require a more diverse set of solutions: a portfolio of fuels, energy efficiency, and on-board carbon capture and storage.

But each technology has operational and capital challenges. So what will it take to scale them up?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Dr. Lynn Loo, CEO of the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation. Ocean-going shipping consumes about 300 million tons of fuel per year, accounting for 3% of global emissions. But with significant regulatory pressure from bodies like the International Maritime Organization, shipping companies are exploring a range of options. Shayle and Lynn cover topics like:

Conventional fuels, like heavy fuel oil and marine gas oil
The inadvertent climate impact of cutting sulfur emissions
The pros and cons of lower-carbon fuels, like LNG, biofuels, methanol, and ammonia
The challenges for infrastructure and operations, especially involving the low volumetric energy density of new fuels
On-board carbon capture and storage
How energy efficiency reduces the impact of low volumetric energy density

Recommended resources

International Maritime Organization: Fourth Greenhouse Gas Study 2020

Catalyst: Heavy duty decarbonization

Catalyst: Putting a halt to geoengineering — by accident

Catalyst is brought to you by Kraken, the advanced operating system for energy. Kraken is helping utilities offer excellent customer service and develop innovative products and tariffs through the connection and optimization of smart home energy assets. Already licensed by major players across the globe, including Origin Energy, E.ON, and EDF, learn how Kraken can help you create a smarter, greener grid at kraken.tech.

Going deep on next-gen geothermal Jun 27, 2024

Show notes

Investment is on the rise in geothermal, where advances in drilling techniques are driving down the cost of generation right as the grid needs more clean, firm, dispatchable power to meet rising load growth. And enhanced-geothermal startup Fervo is leading the pack of entrants, signing agreements to provide power to Southern California Edison and Google.

So how ready are these next-generation geothermal technologies to scale?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Dr. Roland Horne, professor of earth sciences at Stanford, where he leads the university’s geothermal program. Shayle and Roland cover topics like:

Geothermal’s historical challenges of limited geography and high up-front costs
Three pathways of next-generation geothermal: enhanced, closed-loop, and super-deep (also known as super-critical)
Knowledge transfer from the oil and gas industry
Advances in drilling technology that cut across multiple pathways

Recommended resources

U.S. Department of Energy: Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power

Latitude Media: Fervo eyes project-level finance as it plans for geothermal at scale

Make sure to listen to our new podcast, Political Climate – an insider’s view on the most pressing policy questions in energy and climate. Tune in every other Friday for the latest takes from hosts Julia Pyper, Emily Domenech, and Brandon Hurlbut. Available on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Be sure to also check out Living Planet, a weekly show from Deutsche Welle that brings you the stories, facts, and debates on the key environmental issues affecting our planet. Tune in to Living Planet every Friday on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Want to win Catalyst merch? Tell your friends about the show. We’ll give you a unique link that you can share. For every friend who signs up with your link, you’ll get a chance to win. Sign up here.

Demystifying the Chinese EV market Jun 20, 2024

Show notes

New electric vehicles — including both battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles — make up nearly half of new car sales in China. Compared to slowing EV sales in Europe and the U.S. the Chinese market is booming.

So what’s going on?

In this episode, Shayle talks to TP Huang, who writes a Substack about EVs, clean energy, and other tech focused on China. (Editor's note: TP Huang is a pseudonym, used for family reasons.) Shayle and TP cover topics like:

How EVs became extremely cost competitive with internal combustion engines in China where EV prices dip as low as $10,000 USD
Chinese consumer preferences for vehicles packed with features ranging from voice commands to fridges
The ubiquity and interoperability of fast charging, plus battery swapping
The rapid pace of electrification in heavy-duty trucking
Chinese exports to Europe, Southeast Asia, and elsewhere (although not the U.S.)

Recommended Resources:

TP Huang: What's going in the Chinese automotive market

CNN: A brutal elimination round is reshaping the world’s biggest market for electric cars

Bloomberg: Why Europe Is Raising Tariffs on China’s Cheap EVs

Under the hood of data center power demand Jun 13, 2024

Show notes

Driven by the AI boom, data centers’ energy demand could account for 9% of U.S. power generation by 2030, according to the Electric Power Research Institute. That's more than double current usage.

So how do we meet that demand? And what impacts will it have on the grid and decarbonization?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Brian Janous, former vice president of energy at Microsoft and current co-founder of Cloverleaf Infrastructure. Brian talks through the options for meeting data center demand, including shaping computational loads to avoid system peaks and deploying grid-enhancing technologies. He and Shayle also cover topics like:

Why AI-driven demand will be big, even with “zombie requests” in the interconnection queue
How hyperscalers are “coming to grips” with the reality that they may not hit decarbonization targets as quickly as planned
Why Brian thinks efficiency improvement alone “isn’t going to save us” from rising load growth
Why Brian argues that taking data centers off-grid is not a solution
Options for shaping data center load, such as load shifting, microgrids, and behind-the-meter generation
How hyperscalers could speed up interconnection by shaping computational loads

Recommended Resources:

Electric Power Research Institute: Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption

The Carbon Copy: New demand is straining the grid. Here’s how to tackle it.

Federal Regulatory Energy Commission: Report | 2024 Summer Energy Market and Electric Reliability Assessment

Drew Baglino on Tesla’s Master Plan Jun 06, 2024

Show notes

Tesla’s Master Plan Part 3 lays out the company’s model for a decarbonized economy — and makes the case for why it's economically viable. It outlines a vision for extensive electrification and a reliance on wind and solar power.

In this episode, Shayle talks to one of the executives behind the plan, Drew Baglino, who was senior vice president for powertrain and energy at Tesla until April when he resigned. In his 18 years at Tesla he worked on batteries, cars, and even Tesla’s lithium refinery. Shayle and Drew cover topics like:

Why Drew isn't sure that AI-driven load growth “is going to be as dramatic as people think”
Drew’s optimism about the U.S.’ ability to build out enough transmission for decarbonization
How to deal with the high rates of curtailment and what to do with that excess power
Meeting the material requirements of decarbonization and Drew’s experience with permitting Tesla facilities

Recommended Resources:

Tesla: Master Plan Part 3

CNBC: Tesla execs Drew Baglino and Rohan Patel depart as company announces steep layoffs

The Carbon Copy: AI's main constraint: Energy, not chips

Catalyst: Understanding the transmission bottleneck

Utility rates could make or break the energy transition – so how do we do it right? On June 13, Latitude Media and GridX are hosting a Frontier Forum to examine the importance of good rate design and the consequences of getting it wrong. Register here.

And make sure to listen to our new podcast, Political Climate – an insider’s view on the most pressing policy questions in energy and climate. Tune in every other Friday for the latest takes from hosts Julia Pyper, Emily Domenech, and Brandon Hurlbut. Available on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Heavy duty decarbonization May 30, 2024

Show notes

Batteries are making their way into more passenger cars and commercial vehicles than ever before, but the limits of electrification mean that we’ll likely need alternative fuels to decarbonize heavy transport like ships, planes, and trucks.

So what are those fuels and what modes of transport do they suit best?

In this episode, Shayle talks to his colleague Andy Lubershane, partner and head of research at Energy Impact Partners. They talk through the limits of electrification and the alternatives for decarbonizing trucks, ships, and planes, drawing on Andy’s recent blog post, “How will we move the big, heavy things?”. They cover topics like:

The main limitations of batteries: density and infrastructure
Volumetric and gravimetric density, and why they matter for different types of vehicles
How fossil fuels would beat out even a theoretical “uber-battery” multiple times denser than current batteries
Why upgrading “always-on” grid infrastructure can be lengthy, expensive, and disruptive
The alternatives to electrification: biofuels, hydrogen, and e-fuels
The advantages and limitations of each for different modes of transport

Recommended Resources:

Port of Long Beach: Our Zero Emissions Future

Enterprise Mobility: Electrifying Airport Ecosystems by 2050 Could Require Nearly Five Times the Electric Power Currently Used

Catalyst: Understanding SAF buyers

Utility rates could make or break the energy transition – so how do we do it right? On June 13th, Latitude Media and GridX are hosting a Frontier Forum to examine the imperative of good rate design, and the consequences of getting it wrong. Register here.

With Great Power: Why dynamic rates are gaining momentum May 28, 2024

Show notes

This week, we’re featuring a crossover episode of With Great Power, a show produced by Latitude Studios in partnership with GridX. Subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get podcasts.

Ahmad Faruqui has been researching electricity pricing since the mid 1970’s, when the cost of a kilowatt-hour was flat. But in the 80’s and 90’s, he started working on dynamic pricing – pioneering the concept of time-of-use rates.

The big breakthrough for time-of-use rates came during the fallout from the California energy crisis. Later, thanks to the rollout of smart meters, more power providers started experimenting with dynamic rates.

Now, new technology is making time-of-use rate design more transparent. This week, Ahmad talks with Brad about why dynamic pricing is gaining momentum among electric utilities – and what makes for good rate design.

On June 13th, Latitude Media and GridX will host a Frontier Forum to examine the imperative of good rate design – and the consequences of getting it wrong. Register at the link in the show notes, or go to latitudemdia.com/events. See you there!

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