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Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins to discuss the FOMC decision. Jody Lurie, Credit Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss the merger between Six Flags and Cedar Fair. Doug Adams, Global Co-Head of ECM at Citi Bank, joins to discuss his outlook for equities in 2023 and into 2024. Lisa Jarvis, columnist with Bloomberg Opinion covering biotech, healthcare, and pharmaceuticals, discusses the development of weight loss drugs, growing competition, and outlook for the space. Nouvelle Gonzalo, founder at Gonzalo Law Group, joins to discuss the lawsuit against Meta over youth marketing, and how it will impact the industry. Hosted by Paul Sweeney, Matt Miller, and Barry Ritholtz.
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Cam Harvey, Professor at Duke University Faqua School of Business, joins to discuss the FOMC meeting, the Treasury auction, and outlook for a hard landing. Jen Rie, Senior Antitrust Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and George Ferguson, Senior Defense/Aerospace Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, discuss the Spirit-JetBlue trial, what it means for the industry, and airline earnings and industry outlook. Tim Duy, Chief US Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, joins to discuss the Fed and outlook for rates in 2024. Chris Whalen, founder at Whalen Global Advisors, joins to discuss bank liquidity, the Fed, and outlook for a hard landing. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.
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Ira Jersey, Chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses yields, the Fed, and the US Treasury. Chris Ciolino, with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to break down Caterpillar earnings. Ken Monaghan, co-director of high yield at Amundi US, joins to discuss high yield, credit markets, and central banks. Tim Craighead, Director of Research and Senior European Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss Euro contraction and a 3Q midseason takeaways for Europe. Lukasz Tomicki, founder and Managing Partner at LRT Capital Management, joins to discuss the outlook for markets and gives his stock picks. Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting, joins to talk about the Fed, bad economic data, and outlook for a recession. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. FULL TRANSCRIPT: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's talk to our Jersey here, chief US interest rates strategist. I just saw Michael McKee leaving here. He's gonna hop on the Assella train, get down and washing it in DC for that FED meeting tomorrow where you can heckle the chairman with some questions. What do you want to hear from FED Chairman Jpal tomorrow after the release of the results there? Well, what I'd like to hear and what we're not going to hear is wind up being what's the Fed's reaction function and for when they might cut or raise interest rates? Obviously, if inflation accelerates meaningfully, they'll raise interest rates again. They've already mentioned that that they might have to do more if inflation does except right, although we got some data today that seems like maybe it is going to moderate a little bit, but really, you know, what will it take for them to cut? And I think that the idea that they're going to remain at the peak for some time, which they've hounded on, it would be helpful for them, I think, to basically be a little bit more explicit, like, look, we're not cutting unless the unemployment rate is you know, three four percentage points higher than where it is and inflation is close to our target. Right, So saying something like that, which isn't completely explicit, is but it still has some meaning around it for markets. I think that that would be helpful for the FED to maintain monetary policy at this page. Close to our target is weak talk week talk weak sauce, right, I mean, do you want a hawkish Why don't they say, like, we want to get to two percent two hour target? You know, I mean at least for six months or a year. I mean, weren't they trying to average long term average two percent? And how many decades would that take? Yeah, well, that was our old framework. It wouldn't take you know, it wouldn't take that long because we remember we were at under two percent at least for quite a while in the last decade. I think the the thing for the FED though, is that if look, if inflation is two point seven percent, two point six percent, two point five percent trending lower, and you had a real spike in unemployment, then everyone would be forecasting inflation to be significantly lower, right. And I think that's the reason why they can say like near our target or approaching our target, right, something like that. So the FED doesn't like to be as explicit as saying, look, we will cut interest rates if the unemployment rate is above five percent and unemployment and inflation is at two percent if they won't be as explicit as that, because they want to leave themselves flexibility in case there's a crisis, if there's you know, massive corporate defaults for example, and unemployment spikes, but you still have you know, year of a year inflation hasn't fallen off a cliff. Yet they always want to leave some of that flexibility. But you know what's interesting about the FED is it's that little minution detail. It's going to matter because the Fed's probably not going to do anything tomorrow. The Treasury Department, though, at eight thirty in the morning, is going to give us some information that might actually be market moving. So yeah, I mean, yesterday we heard from I guess Treasury that they need about what eight hundred billion dollars in this quarter seven hundred and seventy six billion in this quarter of of net debt rays. Effectively, that's a little bit higher than what our expectation was, a little bit lower than most expectations, and the reason is is that they want to keep this pretty big cash balance. They want to keep a cash balance of around seven hundred and fifty billion dollars. So in order to do that, with Social Security payments coming and additional additional payments for medicare as well as just just general government deficits, not to mention interest payments on the debt, they're going to have to raise, you know, quite a lot of money. Now. Interestingly, remember that seven hundred and seventy six billion dollars is what they're selling to the public. It's actually not the total debt that's being raised because there's non marketable debts, so debt from the Social Security Trust Fund and some other trust funds that are being paid down. So what you'll see is a deficit for the quarter of around half half a trillion dollars. Round five hundred billion dollars. But you'll but the actual debt that they need to raise is much more than that because of the things that we've known for thirty years. Right, the Sochi Security Trust Fund is is a is a net negative and that has to be funded out of out of general revenue. So it's it's you know, it's all the problems that we've seen over the last twenty five years, and we said we're going to be problems for the government debt are actually coming home to roost right now. So I right, I mean, nobody likes to ignore treasury auctions more than me. Will you tell me i'd have to pay attention to this. Well, they've been important, they've been market moving events. When you look at auction demand the last couple of weeks, they've they've started to slip a little on on on average. We last week, for example, we had pretty weak auctions for two year debt and five year notes, but the seven year on Thursday one. Okay, But I would say that demand is much more mixed. Prior to this past month or so, we actually had pretty decent demand at auctions people, where I think we're taking advantage of the selloff. We you know, hit five percent on ten year notes, and people had, you know, taking a little stab at maybe owning a little bit more on at auction. So, yeah, we need to see if demand is maintained, particularly since tomorrow morning with all of that seven hundred billion dollars of debt that needs to be raised, there's going to have to the government's going to have to increase the size of auctions almost across the board. So I'm looking at the two tens. That's another thing you got me looking at. Unfortunately still inverted, but you know, much less than it was before, not only about you know, twenty basis points or so are we going to get to a point where we actually have longer term yields higher than shorter term yields. Yeah, I think I think we will, and it will probably happen early next year. I think it really depends. Though. The important nuance of that is, is it because two year yields go down a lot, So do we have a weakening economy? As Ana Wog and the Bloomberg Economics team correct, And if we do have a meaningful slowdown in the economy, we could probably see two year yields go down, you know, twenty five fifty basis points and ten year yields go down less than that, and that's how you wind up getting that positively sloped yield curve. On the other side, if the if the economy stays reasonably robust, but only because we have all of this debt issuance, you could see, you know, ten year yields maybe up above five percent, up to five point two five five point three percent, and that could you know, uninvert the yield curve, And that would not surprise me at all. In fact, we actually think that we're we are in the process of completely uninverting and we do expect to see a positively slope yield curve sometime over the next twelve months. You raise an interesting point that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last week she said, the reason we have high yields is not to do with the debt and deficits, nothing to do with that. Look away from there, don't look there. It's because of the strength of the economy, because of Bidenomics, from the middle out, from the what is it middle out, and I can't remember, he says, he has a catchphrase that he uses bottom up and middle out. That's what it is So is that the case? And will we know from you know, the refunding how much of the rise in yields is due to you know, the high debt and deficits, and how much of it is due to the speeding economy. Yeah, these are only things that can be estimated. But our estimate is that around ninety two percent of the move from the July FED meeting to present in the tenure yield has been due to the shift in FED expectations. And so if you go and you look at what the expectation is that the market's been pricing. We were pricing for two and a half percent FED funds rate in twenty twenty five, We're now pricing for four percent in twenty twenty five. So that's a huge move, right, I talk about a one hundred and fifty basis point move up in where the FED is going to cut to or you know, where the market thinks it's going to cut to. So that had to manifest itself all throughout the treasury curve, and in particular in the longer end, because the longer end was anticipating rates to be much lower and policy rates to be much lower a few years from now, so I think, I think the debt dynamics have do have some effect, and they certainly have effect on liquidity, but I forget to just leave it there. But we appreciate that. Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rate Strategies for Bloomberg Intelligence. You're listening to the teenth Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. Caterpillar they make the big tractors and all that kind of good stuff back hose. They reported some numbers today which were in line, I guess, pretty solid. But it's all about the outlook for these long cycle industrial companies and that's what's got some investors spook here. As John mentioned, is stocks down about five percent here today. Let's break it down with the man who knows what's happening with this company, Chris Chield. You know he covers the big industrial companies for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's located down in Princeton, New Jersey, the HQ if you will of a Bloomberg Intelligence. Hey, Chris, talk to us about Caterpillar you've been calling on I know in the last a few quarters we've been speaking to you about Boy, these companies are putting up great numbers, but investors are really looking forward and they're a little bit concerned that seemed to come to fruition here today. What'd you see, Yeah, I mean to your point, I mean, the quarter was fine, actually was quite good, with better than expected margin performance and earnings. You know, pricing continues to be really strong, but what we saw was a pretty broad deterioration when it comes to their leading indicators, you know, backlog fail for the first time in three years. Implied orders also dropped sequentially in year over year, and they're fourth quarter sales outlook was somewhat kind of disappointing and below normal seasonality and consensus, and there was a fair amount of trepidation about the macro backdrop heading into the print. And I think these softer orders and backlog trends that we saw aren't necessarily encouraging and what was likely to be a softer economic environment next year and really just kind of intensify some of those concerns around the duration of the cycle. Yeah, So we saw the year on year decline of one point nine billion dollars in the backlog. What exactly does that mean? Does that mean you know exactly what I think it does that they had orders that were that much lower? I mean, how much were there was the backlog in total? Yeah, So I would say the moderation in the backlog wasn't necessarily surprised, and I think it was somewhat to be expected, just giving normalizing supply chains and some of the lead time shrinking with some of the product availability. But I think the magnitude of the decline was kind of what spook people, particularly on the order front. Orders were down about fifteen percent versus prior year and twenty percent sequentially. So I think that sheer magnitude and just the optics of But what's the magnitude of the Is a one point nine billion dollar drop a ten percent drop in the backlog? Or is it a fifty percent drop in the backlog? No, it's it's an eight and a half percent decline sequentially. So while not but it's the first time we've seen backlogs essentially peaked. This is the first time sequentially We're not talking about the year over year drop. Yeah right, Yeah, that's I could see how that was spook people. What's Kat saying about, like, which, are there any particular customer segments that are maybe weaker than expected? What are they saying about kind of where this might be coming from. Yeah, I think I'll actually maybe start on the construction side. I think that was one positive surprise, particularly in North America. North America continues to be quite resilient, and end user demand continues to be pretty strong really across their business. The energy and transportation business came in a little bit weaker than we had anticipated, and it's some there was some softness on the mining side on the top line, it seems to be some timing issues, but also there was some weakness in the aftermarket business, which was a little surprising just given the age of the fleet and utilization still remains quite high. So those bear kind of watching going forward here. So it give us a sense of a cycle here for like a Caterpillar. I mean, you said, this is the first time in three years they've had down order. Sequentially, that sounds like a pretty good cycle, But is it our downcycles similarly like in length? No, as much as we like to think every cycle is the same, they tend to be different. And I would say, you know, even though backlog had peaked here, you know, we are still at historically very elevated levels and there is really above average production visibility as we look forward to next year. But the optics are I mean, you have a really a cyclical company with declining orders a declining backlog. It doesn't just the optic of that are not a favorable setup for the company moving into next year. How about the Inflation Reduction Act. Isn't that like lots of Caterpillar type stuff you need? So it is, And I guess one of the caveats with this cycle is it's different because we just have an immense amount of fiscal stimulus coming through the pipe, and I'd say a lot of that has really kind of yet to materialize to the financial results of a lot of these companies and as part of what's propping up the backlog here. So I think that does help provide an offset. I think some of the decline is certainly attributable to the normalizing supply chain and shrinking lead time, S…
Full show notes at the publisherMick Mulroy, co-founder of the Lobo Institute, joins to discuss the latest on the “second phase” of the Israel-Hamas war and what the ground invasion of Gaza currently looks like. Gabi Coppola, auto industry reporter with Bloomberg News, discusses GM coming to an agreement with UAW. Ambassador Adam Ereli, Principal at IberoAmerican Consultants, LLC and former US ambassador to Bahrain, joins to discuss the role of Qatar in the Israel-Hamas war, the latest developments in the war, and how the war has affected peace negotiations in the Middle East. Edward Harrison, Senior Editor for Bloomberg News, discusses his piece on the parallels he sees in markets from 2006 to 2023. Kailey Leinz, host of Bloomberg’s “Sound On” and “Bloomberg Crypto,” joins to discuss the latest on the GOP race after Mike Pence dropping out and Nikki Haley rising in the polls, as well as the political pressures President Biden’s facing. Amy Lee Copeland, Partner at Rouse + Copeland in Georgia, joins to discuss the legal implications of the defendants pleading guilty in the Georgia case against Donald Trump. Mark Gurman, Chief Correspondent – Tech and Apple with Bloomberg News, joins to discuss Apple’s “Scary Fast” event today at 8pm, new products expected, and why it’s an atypical step for the company to be taking. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.
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Stuart Paul, US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, joins to discuss PCE data, University of Michigan sentiment, and the outlook for consumer spending. Alix Steel and Guy Johnson interview Exxon Chairman and CEO Darren Woods. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst Fernando Valle joins for analysis. Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist at UBS Wealth Management, joins to talk markets and investing. Alex Chaloff, CIO at Bernstein Private Wealth Management, joins to talk about markets and investing. Pat Gelsinger, CEO at Intel, joins Bloomberg Technology to discuss earnings. Barry Ritholtz, host of “Masters in Business” on Bloomberg Radio and founder of Ritholtz Wealth Management, joins to discuss the Jeep 392 and Nissan Z. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.
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Vince Cignarella, macro strategist with Bloomberg News, joins to discuss markets and eco outlook post 3Q GDP. Keith Naughton, reporter with Bloomberg News in Detroit, joins to discuss the latest on the UAW Strike. Bloomberg's Sonali Basak interviews Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman and CEO-to-be Ted Pick. Jen Flitton, Head of US Government Affairs at Invesco, joins to discuss the latest on Mike Johnson being elected House Speaker and a potential government shutdown. Lee Klaskow, Senior Transportation and Logistics Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, breaks down UPS earnings. Max Chafkin, columnist with Bloomberg Businessweek, discusses Sam Bankman-Fried testifying in the FTX fraud trial. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. Full Transcript: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I'm going to get to these markets here. The store's been. It feels to this simple investor over here that the interest rates out there in the marketplace have really been impacting stocks. And that's my take. Vince Signorella, he joins us. He's a pro global macro strategist for Bloomberg News. New knee or just a repaired knee replacement replace harsh, replacing the He's walking just fine. He found his way into the Bloomberg and Director Broker studio. We left from crumbs out for him. Vince, what do you make of these markets here? Uh? You know, the equity market's looking really sick. I mean if you look at longer term charts, sick as in bed like the kids say, look ill, not like beastie boys ill, but like unwell unwell. Yes, there's a level to watch it around forty one to fifty. It's a TD sequential level. If that breaks, it actually opens up a major move down of four thousand. We're looking at a potential major move lower inequity markets if these levels don't hold, and we're gonna need to see some help from probably Amazon and the like going forward to lift this higher, because it's not going to come from interest rights. I look, Abigail, do little yesterday it showed me. Oh y no, no, not rs high. That is back. That is awesome. Look at the rs I for SPX. We are right there. You buy him right here, unless, as you say, it breaks through that little green lines colors and everything. Get me a break. I'll tell you what, though it did. It did move below the two hundred the SMP move below the two hundred day moving average, and the last time we've seen it that blow you know, in that in those terms, was March, and it's well below the two hundred day, which is around forty two to thirty five, so we're well below that. So forty one seventy interestingly enough, is the average closing price for the last year, So between this forty one fifty forty one seventy level. I'd love to see it hold and maybe catch a bid, but so far it's looking a little bit of a dead cat bounce here. If I see rates up, as Paul said, you know, rates have been a huge driver. I feel like if I see rates up, if I see dollar strength, if I see oil up, that's all bad for equities, right yeah, yeah, And you know what rates aren't really there's not much of an infinite impetus for rates to go substantially lower. You know, we need to see really super low inflation numbers to turn rates at the moment. You know, we're saying a little bit of a reprieve in the treasury market. You know, Acman's trade helped a little bit. It got some Americans want to buy treasures, but who else? Pretty much there is Japanese foreign buyers. They don't want to hold this paper. No, no, what else are you gonna buy? Well, yeah, that's actually a good point though, But the upside for it, you know, you're just buying if you're yield, you're not looking at for a capital. Well, it's the first time in almost a generation you could get yield. Oh no, I mean a lot of people loving and you're looking at see these at five and a half percent. I mean, that's these are great rates, especially for fixed income or or seniors on a on a fixed income. A lot of folks out there doing that. I mean I've done a little bit myself. I'm kind of a senior actually these days. But you know, I mean I could see rates staying here. You know, I'm not really going down a lot, not really going up a lot. But that's not going to help the equity market. It's going to need it from somewhere else. So when a guy like Bill Ackman says I closed my short in the treasury markets, a does that mean anything to pros out there? Is not just a name, And if you think about it, the size of his fund it was like a one percent game. So he was long too, right, wasn't he talking about a thirty year Yeah? Yeah, yeah, but he had a one percent gain on the assets under management. I mean he wasn't the only bill. You know Bill Gross also what is he long or short? Going long treasuries? Now? Well, so's Warren Buffet closing short at least? Yeah? Okay, yeah, you know they put a position on a Monday and tell you on Wednesday what they did. So you'll goin in and money do those names. The other day, our producer Eric Molo, he had a mask on and I said, hey, dude, where's Tonto. He had no idea what I was talking about, and I was I said, you know what, like the Lone Ranger? And he was like, no, sorry, don't get it. He did not know who the Lone Ranger was. And do these kids today do they know Bill Gross? Do they know Warren Buffett? Like in a real way? I mean, you know the program the the Algo programmers do because they take those names and they program it into their into their trading venues. But you know, actually, the only iconic name from from that era that is actually incredibly well known Lassie. Everyone knows who Lassie is. This is not in the markets, yeah, well, in the world in general, yeah, markets I mean, but yeah, I mean in the all the years I trade. Do you think Eric Molo knows who Lassie was? I think so we'll have to test him on the way out, check him out. All right, what's the most interesting trade for you out there? Just in the markets? I know, you look at currency, stocks, bonds, all kinds of stuff out there. What are you looking at it to me? You know, going back to interest rates, I still like the short term. I still like two year treasuries. I mean, that's the one that's really going to catch a bid when the FED decides to turn or the FED says I stopped because you could, you would more likely than not see the yield curve steepend if inflation expectations remain, that's not going to affect the short end as much. So if you see steepening, it's going to be a sell off in the back end. I think the short end is the place to be because inevitably that's got to come your way the FED. You know, Matt's been telling me not to crowd into that two year because I gonna have an interest rate risk reinvestment reinvestments. Now the thirty year five point zero seven, you were right negative by I'm not saying, first of all, I don't give investment advice. I loaded up on them, and if I do, you should run the other direction. But no, I'm not saying you want duration right now. I'm just I just look at the interest as sorry, the reinvestment risk as something that is better dealt with by you know, you have like very sophisticated advisors. I just look at an ETF. I would rather T bill and chill. You know, T build chill. I get Yankee tickets, and you do T bill and chill. All right, So what are we doing here, Vince? I mean, is the next move for this Federal Reserve to just stay or to still talk tough? We hear Christine Lagard to ECB today, still talking tough. You know, I take that with a grain of salt. They're saying what they have to say. I mean, the guard's been You know, if you go back ten years when inflation in the Eurozone was below one percent, well you heard from the ECB central bankers was HRCP inflation is moving towards target. It didn't move for five years, but they said that at every meeting. So now at every meeting they're going to say we can still raise, but they have no real intention of raising. Neither does the Fed. I think, I mean, the Federal talk a tough book potentially raising one more. I have absolutely no idea why there's really no reason to raise at this point. Isn't moving down quickly enough? Well, what's counter fiscal spending? I mean, it needs to be two like last week, you know. But I would argue this, the idea of getting inflation to two percent goal is ridiculous. The two percent goal was at a time when there was a balance sheet of what a trillion now we have Now we have a federal deficit of thirty three trillion. The balance sheet at the Fed is off the charts. You're not going to see two percent inflation. You're going to see two percent inflation if you have a disaster. You don't think they're going to get there. No, I think that if they're lucky, they get to three three and a half and they should be happy if they do. So I'm in that camp. I don't know what's so special about two percent. They made it up? Yeah, they would all be made up. But the point is inflation is just thievery right. You're just robbing from savers. So it's their duty to get it down to near as damn it to zero. I would say, well, I mean, you're robbing savers if you don't have real interest rates higher. But we now have real interest rates starting to come to the positive. If you get inflation down to three three and a half percent, you're not going to see a ten ure yield of three percent, so you're still going to have a positive, positive carry and people are going to be earning. I mean the other side of the corner is you get inflation into three three and a half percent. Where does that put the SMP? Probably around forty five forty eight hundred, So you're gonna have a positive return somewhere. It's just a matter of where you go. All right, what do we do? I mean, all right, I think my fed's gonna stay put next time. I think so too. And I think I look at tech and I'm always the one where I joke with people. So you're not going to get your next iPhone from Campbell's soup. So you know, whatever they're selling whenever they sell tech disaggressively, to me, it looks like an opportunity to buy the big tech. I would buy the big tag. But you know, just get my feet wet here and there my toes buying the iPhone fifteen my daughter. I just looked at it yesterday. It's got a new plug. You got to replace all your plugs. I thought, my plug is strategically located everywhere. None is more than an arm length away. Dude, I feel now I got to replace everything. I feel you that you explain the European sect because they made Apple bye by their Yeah, a regulation move, but I'm happy they finally got to it. But you're right, we have to buy all new cables and it's all right. Vincey Garell. Thank you so much. We appreciate it. You're listening to the teenth Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcast. I want to get to the end of the strike. I mean I want to get to it. I'm sure the union members want to get to it. I know the car makers want to get to it. Let's talk on the telephone on Zoom actually with Keith Noughton. He covered on Zoom. Look at him going on Ford in the Big three for US at a motor city, and it looks like at least Ford has got a tentative agreement with the UAW. Keith walk us through it. Yeah, so it's an agreement that includes a twenty five percent raise and the restoration of cost of living allowances. Those two combined mean that the actual pay increase for the top way journers is actually thirty three percent and means they'll be making over forty dollars an hour. There's improvements especially for new workers. They're getting even larger raises. Temp workers are being converted to full time, they're doing increasing the multiplier on pensions and four one ks. So there's a whole bunch of of good economic enhancements that are in the agreement. Now you have you used the murder pensions Keith, I imagine you're talking about people who already had pensions, who what have been working there since pre two thousand and seven. Because I know that Sean Fain, you know he wanted a pay increase. He also wanted pensions for all the union workers to find benefit pensions. And he wanted a four day work week or a thirty two hour work week. So did he get two out of three? Yeah, I just if you want to talk about this stuff, he didn't. He didn't get Matt, He did not get at the thirty two hour work week of the four day work week. He did not get a return to traditional pensions. What he got instead is a larger contribution from the company to your four h one k or to your pension. All those before, as you said two thousand and seven, do have traditional pension, so it's the it's the workers hired in the last fifteen years that don't. So they instead are going to have a greater contribution, greater multiplier. All right, So I'm guessing this puts the pressure really on GM and Stalantis. What's the how does this playoff from here? Yeah? I mean, you know, so the analysts are already crunching the numbers, and the Emmanuel Rosner over at Dolja Bank is saying that this would cost Ford six point two billion over the life of the contract, but it actually would cost GM and Stillantis more GM and be over seven billion, Stalantis higher in the six billions because they have more temporary workers, so there's more temps to give raises to, there's more tempts to convert to full time. So you know, by going first, Ford was able to tailor the agreement to their specific situation. They only have two to three percent of the workforce that is temps, whereas GM and Stlantis are gms close to closer to ten and Stilantis's origin. Interesting, so does this mean, I mean Ford workers are going to go back to the Kentucky plant. They're going to start building the bronco again. In Michion and Dearborn. They're gonna, they're gonna, they're gonna put the pressure, in that sense, further pressure on GM and Stilantis. Do you expect agreements from the other two by the end of the day. I don't, actually, I think there's still work to be done. And that's an important point that you just made. That because back in twenty nineteen when the UAW struck GM, when they reached a tentative agreement, the workers did not go back to the plants. They didn't open the plants again until after that agreement had been ratified by the full membership, which took weeks. But in this case, the OW is sending the workers forward back to the plants immediately. The plants are cranking up today because they want to do put pressure on GM and Stillantis. You know, the losses for each of those companies just from this strike are approaching a billion dollars. So and just this week the two of them, GM and Stillants had their most profitable plants go out on strike. So the costs are going to escalate more rapidly. Now, Oh, so catch us up, Keith, catch us up on who's so the Bronco is made of the truck assembly plant right in Wayne, Michigan. Actually, yeah, so what's coming back online? Is that what you're asking you at? And what's still off? Because I know on Tuesday they struck…
Full show notes at the publisherJoel Levington, Director of Credit Research at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss the UAW strike and outlook for auto makers. Angelo Zino, Senior Industry Analyst at CFRA Research, joins to discuss the latest tech earnings and his recommendations for stocks. Herman Chan, Senior Regional Banks Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss regional bank stocks recent negativity and weariness in the months ahead as the Fed signals higher for longer.Bryan Whalen, co-CIO and Generalist Portfolio Manager from TCW, joins to discuss the latest bond market turmoil and what it means for a recession outlook. Mike Sievert, T-Mobile CEO, joins to discuss company earnings. Jack Devine, founding partner at the Arkin Group, joins to discuss the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. Kate Kaminski, COO of Walton Global, joins the latest to discuss housing, mortgage rates, and commercial real estate. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.
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Kevin Tynan, Senior Autos Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to talk General Motors earnings and the latest developments in the UAW strike. Liz Young, Head of Investment Strategy at SoFi, joins to discuss the bond market and outlook for rates and the Fed. Sonu Chawla, partner and portfolio manager at TimesSquare Capital Management, joins to talk tech trends ahead of today’s Microsoft and Alphabet earnings. Brad Dillman, Chief Economist at RPM Living, joins to discuss the latest housing figures and outlook for mortgage rates and the housing space. Brooke Sutherland, columnist for Bloomberg Opinion covering industrials, joins to discuss General Electric and 3M earnings. Geetha Ranganathan, US Media Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to break down Spotify earnings, the Hollywood strike, and Disney’s near-deal with Reliance. Hosted by Paul Sweeney, Jess Menton, and Molly Smith.
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Ambassador Alon Pinkas, former Israel General Consel in New York, former Chief of Staff to two foreign minister, and former advisor on US affairs to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, joins to discuss the latest on the Israel-Hamas war.Bloomberg’s Alix Steel and Guy Johnson interview Chevron CEO Mike Wirth and Hess CEO John Hess on their merger. RJ Gallo, Senior Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income at Federated Hermes, joins to discuss the bond rout and outlook for the bond market. Elizabeth Hurd, Chair of Religious Studies and Professor of Political Science at Northwestern, joins to contextualize the history and geopolitics of the Israel-Hamas war. Fraser Atkinson, CEO of Greenpower Motor Company (NASDAQ: GP), joins to discuss his company’s aim to make battery-electric buses and trucks affordable and other green power initiatives. Joel Lewis, CEO at Galectin Therapeutics (NASDAQ: GALT), joins to discuss his firm, medical trials, and the market potential for their current drug development. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.
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Micheline Ishay, professor at Josef Korbel School of International Studies at University of Denver, joins to discuss the war in Israel, American diplomacy, and regional political discourse and pressure points. Steven Wieting, Chief Investment Strategist at Citi Global Wealth, joins to discuss the market reaction to Jay Powell yesterday and outlook for the economy. Ben Elliott, Equity Research Analyst: Consumer Financials with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss American Express earnings.Fernando Valle, Senior Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss pressures on energy markets amid geopolitical conflict. Phil Mottram, Executive VP and General Manager of Aruba, a Hewlett Packard Enterprise company, joins to discuss the company’s investor day and initiatives. Mike Dougherty, President, Motorcycles and International at Polaris, joins to discuss the Indian Motorcycle Brand, acquired by Polaris in 2011, and the new bike Matt drove, the Chief Bobber, and the line of bikes/general business of Indian right now. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.
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