Behind The Idea

Latest Episodes:

Behind The Idea #24: Royal Caribbean With Paul Brady And Spring Mill Research Jul 10, 2018

Show notes

We're getting back on the boat this week. Last week's episode about Royal Caribbean and the viability of cruising hit a nerve, and we wanted to explore further. Paul Brady of Conde Nast Traveler joins us to talk about the benefits of the new Silverseas deal and the surge in cruise popularity, and William Mack, CFA, of Spring Mill Research explains why the deal concerns him, and why he likes cruise lines as well even this late in the cycle. A double interview episode! Topics covered - Paul Brady from 1:15-4

Behind The Idea #23: Dealing Into Rough Waters For Royal Caribbean Jul 03, 2018

Show notes

Royal Caribbean (RCL) was sailing along smoothly until it decided to make an expensive purchase. Are rougher waters ahead, or will this pass quickly? We look at the nature of the deal, of cruises, and of consumerism in the 21st century, based on an article by Spring Mill Research. Topics covered: 3:30 minute mark – snapshot of the Spring Mill Research thesis, or how RCL isn’t learning their lesson 6:30– What is there to say about this deal? 15:00 – The prospects for the cruise business in general, i

Behind The Idea #22: Ralph Lauren, Fashion, And Timing Jun 26, 2018

Show notes

So much in life is about timing. The same goes for short ideas. We review a recent pitch by Berna Barshay of Viola Capital Management, LLC that argues that Ralph Lauren's chic look is passé with younger shoppers, and that the stock's recent rise is unearned. Is it a question of the right fashion or the right timing? We discuss. Topics covered: 2:55 minute mark - Recapping the short thesis - sales in the off-price channel and loss of millennial foothold. 6:30 - Looking closer at the generational issue for R

Behind The Idea #21: The Right Pattern For Shopify Jun 19, 2018

Show notes

Shopify - the next major web platform or an overhyped tech company? We review a couple recent articles - both bull and bear - and see where the different sides get it right or wrong. Topics Covered Quick recap of Shopify - 2:00 minute mark Mike's experience with Shopify as a potential competitor - 4:00 Is Shopify making a land grab, and how does the multi-sided platform compare to a network effect - 9:00 The side hustle secular trend (or is it?) - 13:45 The bear case - competition, reliance on Facebook,

Behind The Idea # 20: Kerrisdale Capital On Shorts, Funky Data, And Activism Jun 12, 2018

Show notes

Kerrisdale Capital joins us on Behind the Idea to go over some of their recent short ideas and the current state of the market, as a follow-up to our review of their Proteostasis idea (episode #9). Sahm Adrangi and co make their case and explain why shorts can also get it wrong. Topics covered - Proteostasis (3:00 minute mark), St. Joe's (17:50), QuinStreet and the adtech problem (29:00), the state of activist shorting and the hedge fund business (34:30).

Behind The Idea # 19: Disney And The Power Of Stories Jun 05, 2018

Show notes

Disney is the king of story telling, but the market hasn't been buying what the company is selling. Brian Langis recently told a story - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4172855-future-disney-espn - for how Disney will not only survive cord-cutting but thrive. Is a happy ending coming for shareholders? We discuss. Topics covered: 2:00 minute mark - What do we know about Disney already? 7:50 - The strategic outlook for Disney, and the opportunity Brian Langis sees 14:15 - Everybody's worried about canniba

Behind The Idea #18: How Delta Is Gaining Ground With Paul Brady May 29, 2018

Show notes

Conde Nast Traveler Articles Editor Paul Brady joins Behind The Idea this week to follow up on our Delta discussion (episode #15). We discuss the state of the industry and the limits on capacity, and how Delta is trying to gain distance from its competitors. Topics covered: 2:00 minute mark - Delta’s focus cities and offering full scheduling options 5:25 - Capacity constraints and where that leaves fliers and airlines 9:25 - What are the risks and drawbacks to being at full capacity? 14:25 - What is Delt

Behind The Idea # 17: Kellogg's Serial Decline And What Matters May 22, 2018

Show notes

Does anyone eat cereal anymore? And what can Kellogg do about it? That's the topic of this week's Behind the Idea, as we take Prescience Point's short idea - https://www.presciencepoint.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Prescience-Point_Kellogg-Company__K_.pdf - and see what really matters for Kellogg going forward. Topics covered: 2:00 – Setting the table for the consumer packaged good industry and the general Prescience Point thesis 4:50 – Assessing the decline of cereal, and Mike puts on his Peter L

Behind The Idea # 16: Aswath Damodaran Talks Facebook, Valuation, And Stories May 15, 2018

Show notes

Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Behind the Idea this week to discuss Facebook as a follow-up to our episode reviewing his article (BTI #12). He also sheds light on his investing philosophy, why he dislikes the Dean of Valuation moniker, and the importance of faith and testing your faith in investing. Topics covered: Why the 'Dean of Valuation' is a terrifying title - 1:10 minute mark Recapping Damodaran's Facebook (FB) thesis - 2:00 How do you deal with the risk to Facebook's dominance? - 3:45 The piece W

Behind The Idea #15: Delta Making Moves In An Oligopoly May 08, 2018

Show notes

The airline industry has changed. How do the remaining big players separate themselves from one another? Tim Dunn detailed Delta's focus city strategy in a recent article - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4167776-deltas-focus-city-strategy-delivers-revenue-advantages - which shows one approach. We look at whether management's story checks out and what it means for investors to consider an oligopoly. Topics covered: What’s going on in this thesis and with the focus city model? (1:30 minute mark) Decon

Our TOPPODCAST Picks

Follow Us

Stay Connected

Related Podcasts

Links

Stay Connected