TopPodcast.com
Menu
  • Home
  • Top Charts
  • Top Networks
  • Top Apps
  • Top Independents
  • Top Podfluencers
  • Top Picks
    • Top Business Podcasts
    • Top True Crime Podcasts
    • Top Finance Podcasts
    • Top Comedy Podcasts
    • Top Music Podcasts
    • Top Womens Podcasts
    • Top Kids Podcasts
    • Top Sports Podcasts
    • Top News Podcasts
    • Top Tech Podcasts
    • Top Crypto Podcasts
    • Top Entrepreneurial Podcasts
    • Top Fantasy Sports Podcasts
    • Top Political Podcasts
    • Top Science Podcasts
    • Top Self Help Podcasts
    • Top Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Top Stocks Podcasts
  • Podcast News
  • About Us
  • Podcast Advertising
  • Contact
Not in our directory?
Add Show Here
Podcast Equipment
Center

toppodcastlogoOur TOPPODCAST Picks

  • Comedy
  • Crypto
  • Sports
  • News
  • Politics
  • True Crime
  • Business
  • Finance

Follow Us

toppodcastlogoStay Connected

    View Top 200 Chart
    Back to Rankings Page
    Technology

    Astral Codex Ten Podcast

    The official audio version of Astral Codex Ten, with an archive of posts from Slate Star Codex. It’s just me reading Scott Alexander’s blog posts.

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    Play Money And Reputation Systems Feb 22, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/play-money-and-reputation-systems?utm_source=url

    For now, US-based prediction markets can't use real money without clearing near-impossible regulatory hurdles. So smaller and more innovative projects will have to stick with some kind of play money or reputation-based system.

    I used to be really skeptical here, but Metaculus and Manifold have softened my stance. So let's look closer at how and whether these kinds of systems work.

    Any play money or reputation system has to confront two big design decisions:

    1. Should you reward absolute accuracy, relative accuracy, or some combination of both?

    2. Should your scoring be zero-sum, positive-sum, or negative sum?

    Relative Vs. Absolute Accuracy

    As far as I know, nobody suggests rewarding only absolute accuracy; the debate is between relative accuracy vs. some combination of both. Why? If you rewarded only absolute accuracy, it would be trivially easy to make money predicting 99.999% on "will the sun rise tomorrow" style questions.


    Austin Meetup Next Sunday Feb 19, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/austin-meetup-next-sunday?utm_source=url

    I'll be in Austin on Sunday, 2/27, and the meetup group there has kindly agreed to host me and anyone else who wants to show up.

    We'll be at RichesArt (an art gallery with an outdoor space) at 2511 E 6th St Unit A from noon to 3. The organizer is sbarta@gmail.com , you can contact him if you have any questions.

    As per usual procedure, everyone is invited. Please feel free to come even if you feel awkward about it, even if you're not "the typical ACX reader", even if you're worried people won't like you, etc.

    You may (but don't have to) RSVP here.


    The Gods Only Have Power Because We Believe In Them Feb 18, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-gods-only-have-power-because?utm_source=url

    [with apologies to Terry Pratchett and TVTropes]

    "Is it true," asked the student, "that the gods only have power because we believe in them?"

    "Yes," said the sage.

    "Then why not appear openly? How many more people would believe in the Thunderer if, upon first gaining enough worshipers to cast lightning at all, he struck all of the worst criminals and tyrants?"

    "Because," said the sage, "the gods only gain power through belief, not knowledge. You know there are trees and clouds; are they thereby gods? Just as lightning requires close proximity of positive and negative charge, so divinity requires close proximity of belief and doubt. The closer your probability estimate of a god's existence is to 50%, the more power they gain from you. Complete atheism and complete piety alike are useless to them."


    Book Review: Sadly, Porn Feb 18, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-sadly-porn

    I.

    Freshman English class says all books need a conflict. Man vs. Man, Man vs. Self, whatever. The conflict in Sadly, Porn is Author vs. Reader.

    The author - the pseudonymous "Edward Teach, MD" - is a spectacular writer. Your exact assessment of his skill will depend on where you draw the line between writing ability and other virtues - but where he's good, he's amazing. Nobody else takes you for quite the same kind of ride.

    He's also impressively erudite, drawing on the Greek and Latin classics, the Bible, psychoanalytic literature, and all of modern movies and pop culture. Sometimes you read the scholars of two hundred years ago and think "they just don't make those kinds of guys anymore". They do and Teach is one of them.

    If you read his old blog, The Last Psychiatrist, you have even more reasons to appreciate him. His expertise in decoding scientific studies and in psychopharmacology helped me a lot as a med student and resident. His political and social commentary was delightfully vicious, but also seemed genuinely aimed at helping his readers become better people.

    My point is: the author is a multitalented person who I both respect and want to respect. This sets up the conflict.


    Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold Feb 15, 2022
    Show notes https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-ukraine-cube-manifold?r=fm577 Ukraine

    Thanks to Clay Graubard for doing my work for me:

    These run from about 48% to 60%, but I think the differences are justified by the slightly different wordings of the question and definitions of "invasion".

    You see a big jump last Friday when the US government increased the urgency of their own warnings. I ignored this on Friday because I couldn't figure out what their evidence was, but it looks like the smart money updated a lot on it.

    A few smaller markets that Clay didn't include: Manifold is only at 36% despite several dozen traders. I think they're just wrong - but I'm not going to use any more of my limited supply of play money to correct it, thus fully explaining the wrongness. Futuur is at 47%, but also thinks there's an 18% chance Russia invades Lithuania, so I'm going to count this as not really mature. Insight Prediction, a very new site I've never seen before, claims to have $93,000 invested and a probability of 22%, which is utterly bizarre; I'm too suspicious and confused to invest, and maybe everyone else is too.

    (PredictIt, Polymarket, and Kalshi all avoid this question. I think PredictIt has a regulatory agreement that limits them to politics. Polymarket and Kalshi might just not be interested, or they might be too PR-sensitive to want to look like they're speculating on wars where thousands of people could die.)

    What happens afterwards? Clay beats me again:

    For context:


    Highlights From The Comments On Motivated Reasoning And Reinforcement Learning Feb 13, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-motivated

    I. Comments From People Who Actually Know What They're Talking About

    Gabriel writes:

    The brain trains on magnitude and acts on sign.

    That is to say, there are two different kinds of "module" that are relevant to this problem as you described, but they're not RL and other; they're both other. The learning parts are not precisely speaking reinforcement learning, at least not by the algorithm you described. They're learning the whole map of value, like a topographic map. Then the acting parts find themselves on the map and figure out which way leads upward toward better outcomes.

    More precisely then: The brain learns to predict value and acts on the gradient of predicted value.

    The learning parts are trying to find both opportunities and threats, but not unimportant mundane static facts. This is why, for example, people are very good at remembering and obsessing over intensely negative events that happened to them -- which they would not be able to do in the RL model the post describes! We're also OK at remembering intensely positive events that happened to us. But ordinary observations of no particular value mostly make no lasting impression. You could test this by a series of 3 experiments, in each of which you have a screen flash several random emoji on screen, and each time a specific emoji is shown to the subject, you either (A) penalize the subject such as with a shock, or (B) reward the subject such as with sweet liquid when they're thirsty, or (C) give the subject a stimulus that has no significant magnitude, whether positive or negative, such as changing the pitch of a quiet ongoing buzz that they were not told was relevant. I'd expect subjects in both conditions A and B to reliably identify the key emoji, whereas I'd expect quite a few subjects in condition C to miss it.

    By learning associates with a degree of value, whether positive or negative, it's possible to then act on the gradient in pursuit of whatever available option has highest value. This works reliably and means we can not only avoid hungry lions and seek nice ripe bananas, but we also do


    ACX Grants ++: The Second Half Feb 11, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-the-second-half

    This is the closing part of ACX Grants. Projects that I couldn't fully fund myself were invited to submit a brief description so I could at least give them free advertising here. You can look them over and decide if any seem worth donating your money, time, or some other resource to.

    I've removed obvious trolls, a few for-profit businesses without charitable value who tried to sneak in under the radar, and a few that violated my sensibilities for one or another reason. I have not removed projects just because they're terrible, useless, or definitely won't work. My listing here isn't necessarily an endorsement; caveat lector.

    Still, some of them are good projects and deserve more attention than I was able to give them. Many applicants said they'd hang around the comments section here, so if you have any questions, ask!

    (bolded titles are my summaries and some of them might not be accurate or endorsed by the applicant)

    You can find the first 66 of these here.


    So You Want To Run A Microgrants Program Feb 10, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/so-you-want-to-run-a-microgrants

    I.

    Medical training is a wild ride. You do four years of undergrad in some bio subject, ace your MCATs, think you're pretty hot stuff. Then you do your med school preclinicals, study umpteen hours a day, ace your shelf exams, and it seems like you're pretty much there. Then you start your clinical rotations, get a real patient in front of you, and you realize - oh god, I know absolutely nothing about medicine.

    This is also how I felt about running a grants program.

    I support effective altruism, a vast worldwide movement focused on trying to pick good charities. Sometimes I go to their conferences, where they give lectures about how to pick good charities. Or I read their online forum, where people write posts about how to pick good charities. I've been to effective altruist meetups, where we all come together and talk about good charity picking. So I felt like, maybe, I don't know, I probably knew some stuff about how to pick good charities.

    And then I solicited grant proposals, and I got stuff like this:

    A. $60K to run simulations checking if some chemicals were promising antibiotics. B. $60K for a professor to study the factors influencing cross-cultural gender norms C. $50K to put climate-related measures on the ballot in a bunch of states. D. $30K to research a solution for African Swine Fever and pitch it to Uganda E. $40K to replicate psych studies and improve incentives in social science

    Which of these is the most important?


    Heuristics That Almost Always Work Feb 09, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/heuristics-that-almost-always-work

    The Security Guard

    He works in a very boring building. It basically never gets robbed. He sits in his security guard booth doing the crossword. Every so often, there's a noise, and he checks to see if it's robbers, or just the wind.

    It's the wind. It is always the wind. It's never robbers. Nobody wants to rob the Pillow Mart in Topeka, Ohio. If a building on average gets robbed once every decade or two, he might go his entire career without ever encountering a real robber.

    At some point, he develops a useful heuristic: it he hears a noise, he might as well ignore it and keep on crossing words: it's just the wind, bro.

    This heuristic is right 99.9% of the time, which is pretty good as heuristics go. It saves him a lot of trouble.


    Two Small Corrections And Updates Feb 09, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/two-small-corrections-and-updates

    1: I titled part of my post yesterday "RIP Polymarket", which was a mistake. Polymarket would like to remind everyone that they are very much alive, with a real-money market available to anyone outside the US, and some kind of compliant US product (maybe a play-money market) in the works.

    2: Sam M and Eric N want to remind you that you have until the end of next week to get your 2022 prediction contest entries in. Also:

    We have some plans to compare (aggregates of) ACX reader predictions against various prediction markets. But there are probably much cooler things we can do which we haven't thought of yet! If you run a prediction market and have an idea for an interesting collaboration that involves sharing our data before it's publicly released, get in touch with us through the contest feedback form. If it's something time sensitive (e.g. an experiment that needs to be started before the contest submission deadline), make sure you do so soon. If you don't run a prediction market but still have an idea for something interesting we can do with the contest data, leave a comment on this open thread and we'll hopefully see it."

    You can reach them through this form.


    Previous 1 61 62 63 64 65 120 Next

    Related Podcasts

    Reply All

    1

    Reply All Games & Hobbies
    Inside VR & AR

    2

    Inside VR & AR Gadgets
    Note to Self

    3

    Note to Self News
    BrainStuff

    4

    BrainStuff Natural Sciences
    This Week in Tech (Audio)

    5

    This Week in Tech (Audio) News
    Hands-On Tech (Audio)

    6

    Hands-On Tech (Audio) Technology
    footer-logo

    Contact Us

    Toll Free: 844-670-7747

    Links

    • Home
    • Top Charts
    • Networks
    • Apps
    • Independents Podcasts
    • Podcast Advertising
    • Podcast News
    • Contact Us
    • About Us
    • Analytics & Insights

    Stay Connected

      Privacy, Terms of Use & Our Code of Ethics Protecting Content Creators Copyrights