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    Technology

    Astral Codex Ten Podcast

    The official audio version of Astral Codex Ten, with an archive of posts from Slate Star Codex. It’s just me reading Scott Alexander’s blog posts.

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    Latest Episodes:
    Highlights From The Comments On Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism Jul 29, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-criticism

    1: I said in the original post that I wrote this because I knew someone would write the opposite article (that organizations accept specific criticism in order to fend off paradigmatic criticism), and then later Zvi did write an article kind of like that. He writes:

    It is the dream of anyone who writes a post called Criticism of [a] Criticism Contest to then have a sort-of reply called Criticism of Criticism of Criticism.

    The only question now is, do I raise to 4?

    I [wrote my article the way I did] for several reasons, including (1) a shorter post would have taken a lot longer, (2) when I posted a Tweet instead a central response was 'why don't you say exactly what things are wrong here', (3) any one of them might be an error but if basically every sentence/paragraph is doing the reversal thing you should stop and notice it and generalize it (4) you talk later about how concrete examples are better, so I went for concrete examples, (5) they warn against 'punching down' and this is a safe way to do this while 'punch up' and not having to do infinite research, (6) when something is the next natural narrative beat that goes both ways, (7) things are next-beats for reasons and I do think it's fair that most Xs in EA's place that do this are 'faking it' in this sense, (8) somehow people haven't realized I'm a toon and I did it in large part because it was funny and had paradoxical implications, (9) I also wrote it out because I wanted to better understand exactly what I had unconsciously/automatically noticed.

    For 7, notice in particular that the psychiatrists are totally faking it here, they are clearly being almost entirely performative and you could cross out every reference to psychiatry and write another profession and you'd find the same talks at a different conference. If someone decided not to understand this and said things like 'what specific things here aren't criticizing [X]', you'd need to do a close reading of some kind until people saw it, or come up with another better option.

    Also note that you can (A) do the thing they're doing at the conference, (B) do the thing where you get into some holy war and start a fight or (C) you can actually question psychiatry in general (correctly or otherwise) but if you do that at the conference people will mostly look at you funny and find a way to ignore you.


    Forer Statements As Updates And Affirmations Jul 27, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/forer-statements-as-updates-and-affirmations

    The Forer Effect is a trick used by astrologers, psychics, and social psychologists. Given a list of statements like these:

    1. You have a great need for other people to like and admire you.

    2. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself.

    3. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage.

    4. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them.

    5. Your sexual adjustment has presented problems for you.

    6. Disciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside.

    7. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing.

    8. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations.

    9. You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof.

    10. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others.

    11. At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, reserved.

    12. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic.

    13. Security is one of your major goals in life.


    ELK And The Problem Of Truthful AI Jul 27, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/elk-and-the-problem-of-truthful-ai

    Machine Alignment Monday 7/25/22 I. There Is No Shining Mirror

    I met a researcher who works on "aligning" GPT-3. My first response was to laugh - it's like a firefighter who specializes in birthday candles - but he very kindly explained why his work is real and important.

    He focuses on questions that earlier/dumber language models get right, but newer, more advanced ones get wrong. For example:

    Human questioner: What happens if you break a mirror?

    Dumb language model answer: The mirror is broken.

    Versus:

    Human questioner: What happens if you break a mirror?

    Advanced language model answer: You get seven years of bad luck

    Technically, the more advanced model gave a worse answer. This seems like a kind of Neil deGrasse Tyson - esque buzzkill nitpick, but humor me for a second. What, exactly, is the more advanced model's error?

    It's not "ignorance", exactly. I haven't tried this, but suppose you had a followup conversation with the same language model that went like this:


    Your Book Review: The Society Of The Spectacle Jul 23, 2022
    Show notes

    Finalist #11 in the Book Review Contest

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-society-of-the

    [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not by me - it's by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked - SA]

    Introduction

    "The Society of the Spectacle will make no sense if the reader feels there is nothing fundamentally wrong with contemporary society."

    Guy Debord was a Marxist theorist and founding member of the Situationist International, among other things. Like all great thinkers worth their salt, he was an embittered alcoholic who took his own life in despair. [1]

    Published in 1967, The Society of the Spectacle is his magnum opus and lasting legacy. It unfolds in staccato bursts, almost like a book of aphorisms. The writing is pithy and poetic, albeit with the occasional lapse into the meandering, circular prose so typical of critical theory. This makes it extremely readable, particularly for a work of political philosophy. One downside of his style is that he tends to state his points in just-so fashion. We'll have to do some of the legwork for him to flesh things out.

    Strap in, boys - we've got a bumpy road ahead of us.


    Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism Jul 20, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/criticism-of-criticism-of-criticism

    I.

    The voters wanted Anti-Politics Machine to be a Book Review Contest Finalist this year, and I listened. But I wasn't happy about it. I hate having to post criticism of EA.

    Not because EA is bad at taking criticism. The opposite: they like it too much. It almost feels like a sex thing. "Please, tell me again how naughty I'm being!" I went to an EA organization's offices once - I think it was OpenPhil, but don't quote me on that - and the whole place was strewn with the most critical books you can imagine - Robert Reich, Anand Giradharadas, that kind of thing. Can't remember seeing Anti-Politics Machine but I'm sure it was there. Probably three copies per person. One for their office, one for their home library, and one for the spot under their mattress where other people would hide porn mags.


    Your Book Review: The Righteous Mind Jul 18, 2022
    Show notes

    Finalist #10 in the Book Review Contest

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-righteous-mind

    [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not by me - it's by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked - SA]

    Introduction

    I didn't read The Righteous Mind for a long time after I knew about it. This was partly because I don't get through much in the way of new reading material. A friend of mine told me yesterday that he'd read something like 130 new books this year. That was on February 20th. I've read one, and it was The Righteous Mind. Another friend releases Spotify playlists every Friday of the greatest hits from the many new albums he's listened to that week. I've listened to one new album this year. It was Selling England by the Pound, which he recommended. It was my first foray into Genesis and I loved it. I now have to keep telling him that, no, I haven't listened to any more Genesis or Peter Gabriel since then, but I'm sure I'll get round to it within the year.

    This is to make the point that I'm starting from a low base rate of reading things. I still think I put off reading The Righteous Mind for unusually long, though, given how interesting I find the subject matter. The reason, I think, is that I sort of felt like it wouldn't be very interesting, because I'd kind of know and agree with all of it already. Given how slowly I absorb new books, I like them to either be challenging, or a new and informative look at things I just don't know very much about yet. I don't mean to come across as some sort of sage of intellectual piety and good habits of mind who scorns the comforting embrace of being validated. I read plenty of political bloggers that I mostly agree with! I just don't tend to use books for that.


    Impact Markets: The Annoying Details Jul 17, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/impact-markets-the-annoying-details

    I said last year that I'd like to try running this year's ACX Grants through impact markets. Since then, some people have expressed interest in the technical implementation, and - to nobody's surprise more than my own - it's starting to look like it could happen.

    A reminder: impact certificates are like a VC funding ecosystem for charity. Charity founders with good ideas sell shares in their proposed projects. Profit-seeking investors buy shares of ("invest in") projects that they expect to succeed. This funds the project; if it does succeed, altruistic people/foundations ("final oracular funders") buy the impact, compensating the investors.

    For example, suppose I come up with a great idea to end malaria in Senegal. I need $1 million to make it work, and when it works it will be worth $5 million in benefits to the Senegalese. Ordinary charitable foundations don't appreciate my genius, so I pitch it to VCs with biotech experience. They like it and buy 100% of the shares for $1 million. I take my million dollars, do the project, and cure malaria in Senegal. Foundations see that I have done a great thing with $5 million in benefits, so they give me $5 million. I pass this along to my investors, who make $5 million on a $1 million investment. They're very happy, and incentivized to do more things like this in the future.

    Why is this useful? Try running a grants program and you'll find out! You, a person who is presumably very altruistic but not necessarily an expert in epidemiology, will be asked to make decisions about which diseases to cure how. If you get it wrong, you've wasted your donors' money. You can ask epidemiologists for help, but it turns out there is no easy way to get in contact with a consensus of all the world's epidemiologists - let alone with the all the developmental economists, political scientists, etc who might have useful insights. Very large charitable foundations will have hired these people or built relationships with them, but even they don't always feel confident in their decision-making process.


    Book Review: The Man From The Future Jul 14, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-man-from-the-future

    John von Neumann invented the digital computer. The fields of game theory and cellular automata. Important pieces of modern economics, set theory, and particle physics. A substantial part of the technology behind the atom and hydrogen bombs. Several whole fields of mathematics I hadn't previously heard of, like "operator algebras", "continuous geometry", and "ergodic theory".

    The Man From The Future, by Ananyo Bhattacharya, touches on all these things. But you don't read a von Neumann biography to learn more about the invention of ergodic theory. You read it to gawk at an extreme human specimen, maybe the smartest man who ever lived.

    By age 6, he could multiply eight-digit numbers in his head. At the same age, he spoke conversational ancient Greek; later, he would add Latin, French, German, English, and Yiddish (sometimes joked about also speaking Spanish, but he would just put "el" before English words and add -o to the end) . Rumor had it he memorized everything he ever read. A fellow mathematician once tried to test this by asking him to recite Tale Of Two Cities, and reported that "he immediately began to recite the first chapter and continued until asked to stop after about ten or fifteen minutes".


    Mantic Monday 7/11/22 Jul 13, 2022
    Show notes

    New star forecasting team -- Musk vs. Twitter -- Donald Trump wriggling his way out of things

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-71122

    Curtains For Trump?

    The original case for formal forecasting grew out of pundits often being confident and wrong. And nowhere have pundits been wrong more often than when they predict that the newest scandal will end Donald Trump's career once and for all.

    Source: KnowYourMeme

    I thought of this last week while reading Is Conservative Media Breaking Up With Trump? The Daily Beast argues that the revelations from the 1/6 Committee are so damaging that even previously-loyal GOP elites are starting to turn on their former master. And with DeSantis as such a tempting alternative 2024 nominee, maybe Trump is more of a liability than an asset. Is this finally the jam ol Donny Trump can't wriggle his way out of?


    Your Book Review: The Outlier Jul 10, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-outlier

    [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not by me - it's by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked - SA]

    I.

    I decided to read a 600-page book about Jimmy Carter because I was tired of only reading about the historical figures everyone already agrees are interesting.

    John Adams became an HBO miniseries. Hamilton became a Broadway show. The Power Broker and The Years of Lyndon Johnson became such status symbols that there was a whole pandemic meme about people ostentatiously displaying them in their Zoom backgrounds. But you never hear anyone bragging about their extensive knowledge of the Carter administration.

    Like most people under 70, I was more aware of Carter's post-presidency role as America's kindly old grandfather, pottering around holding his wife's hand and building Houses for Humanity. I mostly knew that he liked to wear sweaters, that he owned a peanut farm, and that he lost to Ronald Reagan.

    But I wondered what, if any, hidden depths lay within the peanut farmer. Also, I wanted to enter this contest, and I didn't want to pick a book that I thought a bunch of other people might also review. So I turned to The Outlier: The Unfinished Presidency of Jimmy Carter, by Kai Bird. Like Carter, this book seems to have been largely forgotten. It won a Pulitzer, but I had never heard of it until I googled "best book about Jimmy Carter." It seems to have gotten a lot less attention than similar recent biographies about Grant, Roosevelt, and Truman, and it's hard to imagine it ever becoming a TV show or a musical.

    Carter was born in 1924 in Plains, Georgia, which, as you can tell from the name "Plains," is very dull. His father was a successful farmer, which made his family wealthy by local standards. Almost every other Plains resident during Carter's childhood was an impoverished African-American, many of whom worked on the Carter farm, a fact that is often cited as the answer to the central mystery of Carter's childhood: how he grew up white in the Depression-era South without becoming a huge racist. It probably doesn't tell the whole story, though, as his siblings came out just about as racist as you'd expect.


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