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    Technology

    Astral Codex Ten Podcast

    The official audio version of Astral Codex Ten, with an archive of posts from Slate Star Codex. It’s just me reading Scott Alexander’s blog posts.

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    Latest Episodes:
    The Media Very Rarely Lies Dec 24, 2022
    Show notes

    "With a title like that, obviously I will be making a nitpicky technical point."

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-media-very-rarely-lies

    Related: Bounded Distrust, Moderation Is Different From Censorship

    I.

    With a title like that, obviously I will be making a nitpicky technical point. I'll start by making the point, then explain why I think it matters.

    The point is: the media rarely lies explicitly and directly. Reporters rarely say specific things they know to be false. When the media misinforms people, it does so by misinterpreting things, excluding context, or signal-boosting some events while ignoring others, not by participating in some bright-line category called "misinformation".

    Let me give a few examples from both the alternative and establishment medias.


    Prediction Market FAQ Dec 22, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq

    This is a FAQ about prediction markets. I am a big proponent of them but have tried my hardest to keep it fair. For more information and other perspectives, see Wikipedia, the scholarly literature (eg here), and Zvi.

    1. What are prediction markets? 2. Why believe prediction markets are accurate? 3. Why believe prediction markets are canonical? 4. What are the most common objections to prediction markets? 5. What are some clever uses for prediction markets? 6. What's the current status of prediction markets? 7. What can I do to help promote prediction markets?


    2023 Prediction Contest Dec 20, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest

    Each winter, I make predictions about the year to come. The past few years, this has outgrown my blog, with other people including Zvi and Manifold (plus Sam and Eric's contest version).

    This year I'm making it official, with a 50-question 2023 Prediction Benchmark Question Set. I hope that this can be used as a common standard to compare different forecasters and forecasting site (Manifold and Metaculus have already agreed to use it, and I'm hoping to get others). Also, I'd like to do an ACX Survey later this month, and this will let me try to correlate personality traits with forecasting accuracy.

    —You can see the questions and enter the contest here—


    Perhaps It Is A Bad Thing That The World's Leading AI Companies Cannot Control Their AIs Dec 14, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/perhaps-it-is-a-bad-thing-that-the

    I. The Game Is Afoot

    Last month I wrote about Redwood Research's fanfiction AI project. They tried to train a story-writing AI not to include violent scenes, no matter how suggestive the prompt. Although their training made the AI reluctant to include violence, they never reached a point where clever prompt engineers couldn't get around their restrictions.

    Now that same experiment is playing out on the world stage. OpenAI released a question-answering AI, ChatGPT. If you haven't played with it yet, I recommend it. It's very impressive!

    Every corporate chatbot release is followed by the same cat-and-mouse game with journalists. The corporation tries to program the chatbot to never say offensive things. Then the journalists try to trick the chatbot into saying "I love racism". When they inevitably succeed, they publish an article titled "AI LOVES RACISM!" Then the corporation either recalls its chatbot or pledges to do better next time, and the game moves on to the next company in line.


    Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise Dec 12, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-bobos

    Table of contents:

    1. Comments Doubting The Book's Thesis 2. Comments From People Who Seem To Know A Lot About Ivy League Admissions 3. Comments About Whether A Hereditary Aristocracy Might In Fact Be Good 4. Other Interesting Comments 5. Tangents That I Find Tedious, But Other People Apparently Really Want To Debate

    1. Comments Doubting The Book's Thesis

    Woody Hochmann writes:

    The connections that Brooks makes between the decline of the northeastern WASP aristocracy's power, the emergence of meritocracy, and the hippie culture that first emerged in the 60s doesn't seem to stand up to even moderate historical scrutiny, in all honesty. Some issues that immediately come to mind off the top of my head:

    -The idea that the cultural values that Brooks calls "bohemianism" became dominant in America for essentially parochial reasons limited to the US (a change in university admissions policies, the displacement of a previous aristocracy) doesn't track well with the fact that these social changes happened around the same time in basically every part of the western world (and to a lesser degree in Asia as well).


    Why I'm Less Than Infinitely Hostile To Cryptocurrency Dec 11, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-im-less-than-infinitely-hostile

    Go anywhere in Silicon Valley these days and start saying the word "cryp - ". Before you get to the second syllable, everyone around you will chant in unison "PONZIS 100% SCAMS ZERO-LEGITIMATE-USE-CASES SPEEDRUNNING-THE-HISTORY-OF-FINANCIAL-FRAUD!" It's really quite impressive.

    I'm no true believer. But I'm less than infinitely hostile to crypto. This is becoming a pretty rare position, so let me explain why:

    Crypto Is Full Of Extremely Clear Use Cases, Which It Already Succeeds At Very Well

    Look at the graph of countries that use crypto the most (source):


    Know Your GABA-A Receptor Subunits Dec 11, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/know-your-gaba-a-receptor-subunits

    Many psychiatric drugs and supplements affect GABA, the brain's main inhibitory neurotransmitter. But some have different effects than others. Why? This is rarely a productive question to ask in psychiatry, and this situation is no exception. But if you persist long enough, someone will eventually tell you to study GABA receptor subunits, which I am finally getting around to doing.

    GABA-A is the most common type of GABA receptor. Seen from the side, it looks like a bell pepper; seen from above, it looks like a tech company logo.


    Book Review: First Sixth Of Bobos In Paradise Dec 02, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-first-sixth-of-bobos

    I.

    David Brooks' Bobos In Paradise is an uneven book. The first sixth is a daring historical thesis that touches on every aspect of 20th-century America. The next five-sixths are the late-90s equivalent of "millennials just want avocado toast!" I'll review the first sixth here, then see if I can muster enough enthusiasm to get to the rest later.

    The daring thesis: a 1950s change in Harvard admissions policy destroyed one American aristocracy and created another. Everything else is downstream of the aristocracy, so this changed the whole character of the US.

    The pre-1950s aristocracy went by various names; the Episcopacy, the Old Establishment, Boston Brahmins. David Brooks calls them WASPs, which is evocative but ambiguous. He doesn't just mean Americans who happen to be white, Anglo-Saxon, and Protestant - there are tens of millions of those! He means old-money blue-blooded Great-Gatsby-villain WASPs who live in Connecticut, go sailing, play lacrosse, belong to country clubs, and have names like Thomas R. Newbury-Broxham III. Everyone in their family has gone to Yale for eight generations; if someone in the ninth generation got rejected, the family patriarch would invite the Chancellor of Yale to a nice game of golf and mention it in a very subtle way, and the Chancellor would very subtly apologize and say that of course a Newbury-Broxham must go to Yale, and whoever is responsible shall be very subtly fired forthwith.

    The old-money WASPs were mostly descendants of people who made their fortunes in colonial times (or at worst the 1800s); they were a merchant aristocracy. As the descendants of merchants, they acted as standard-bearers for the bourgeois virtues: punctuality, hard work, self-sufficiency, rationality, pragmatism, conformity, ruthlessness, whatever made your factory out-earn its competitors.

    By the 1950s they were several generations removed from any actual hustling entrepreneur. Still, at their best the seed ran strong and they continued to embody some of these principles. Brooks tentatively admires the WASP aristocracy for their ethos of noblesse oblige - many become competent administrators, politicians, and generals. George H. W. Bush, scion of a rich WASP family, served with distinction in World War II - the modern equivalent would be Bill Gates' or Charles Koch's kids volunteering as front-line troops in Afghanistan.


    Highlights From The Comments On Semaglutide Dec 01, 2022
    Show notes

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-semaglutide

    Table of contents:

    1. Top Comments 2. More Tips On Getting Cheap Semaglutide 3. Other Weight Loss Drugs 4. People Challenging My Numbers And Predictions 5. Do You Have To Stay On Semaglutide Forever Or Else Gain The Weight Back? 6. Personal Anecdotes 7. Tangents That I Find Tedious, But Other People Apparently Really Want To Debate


    Can This AI Save Teenage Spy Alex Rider From A Terrible Fate? Nov 30, 2022
    Show notes

    We're showcasing a hot new totally bopping, popping musical track called "bromancer era? bromancer era?? bromancer era???" His subtle sublime thoughts raced, making his eyes literally explode.

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/can-this-ai-save-teenage-spy-alex

    "He peacefully enjoyed the light and flowers with his love," she said quietly, as he knelt down gently and silently. "I also would like to walk once more into the garden if I only could," he said, watching her. "I would like that so much," Katara said. A brick hit him in the face and he died instantly, though not before reciting his beloved last vows: "For psp and other releases on friday, click here to earn an early (presale) slot ticket entry time or also get details generally about all releases and game features there to see how you can benefit!"

    — Talk To Filtered Transformer

    Rating: 0.1% probability of including violence

    "Prosaic alignment" is the most popular paradigm in modern AI alignment. It theorizes that we'll train future superintelligent AIs the same way that we train modern dumb ones: through gradient descent via reinforcement learning. Every time they do a good thing, we say "Yes, like this!", in a way that pulls their incomprehensible code slightly in the direction of whatever they just did. Every time they do a bad thing, we say "No, not that!," in a way that pushes their incomprehensible code slightly in the opposite direction. After training on thousands or millions of examples, the AI displays a seemingly sophisticated understanding of the conceptual boundaries of what we want.

    For example, suppose we have an AI that's good at making money. But we want to align it to a harder task: making money without committing any crimes. So we simulate it running money-making schemes a thousand times, and give it positive reinforcement every time it generates a legal plan, and negative reinforcement every time it generates a criminal one. At the end of the training run, we hopefully have an AI that's good at making money and aligned with our goal of following the law.

    Two things could go wrong here:

    1. The AI is stupid, ie incompetent at world-modeling. For example, it might understand that we don't want it to commit murder, but not understand that selling arsenic-laden food will kill humans. So it sells arsenic-laden food and humans die.

    2. The AI understands the world just fine, but didn't absorb the categories we thought it absorbed. For example, maybe none of our examples involved children, and so the AI learned not to murder adult humans, but didn't learn not to murder children. This isn't because the AI is too stupid to know that children are humans. It's because we're running a direct channel to something like the AI's "subconscious", and we can only talk to it by playing this dumb game of "try to figure out the boundaries of the category including these 1,000 examples".

    Problem 1 is self-resolving; once AIs are smart enough to be dangerous, they're probably smart enough to model the world well. How bad is Problem 2? Will an AI understand the category boundaries of what we want easily and naturally after just a few examples? Will it take millions of examples and a desperate effort? Or is there some reason why even smart AIs will never end up with goals close enough to ours to be safe, no matter how many examples we give them?

    AI scientists have debated these questions for years, usually as pure philosophy. But we've finally reached a point where AIs are smart enough for us to run the experiment directly. Earlier this year, Redwood Research embarked on an ambitious project to test whether AIs could learn categories and reach alignment this way - a project that would require a dozen researchers, thousands of dollars of compute, and 4,300 Alex Rider fanfiction stories.


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