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    Technology

    Astral Codex Ten Podcast

    The official audio version of Astral Codex Ten, with an archive of posts from Slate Star Codex. It’s just me reading Scott Alexander’s blog posts.

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    Latest Episodes:
    Apply For An ACX Grant (2024) Dec 18, 2023
    Show notes

    I'm running another ACX Grants round. If you already know what this is and want to apply, use the form here to apply, deadline December 29. Otherwise see below for more information.

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/apply-for-an-acx-grant-2024


    Defying Cavity: Lantern Bioworks FAQ Dec 18, 2023
    Show notes

    Lantern Bioworks says they have a cure for tooth decay. Their product is a genetically modified bacterium which infects your mouth, outcompetes all the tooth-decay-causing bacteria, and doesn't cause tooth decay itself. If it works, it could make cavities a thing of the past (you should still brush for backup and cosmetic reasons).

    I talked to Lantern founder Aaron Silverbook to get an idea of how this works, both in a biological and an economic sense. Aaron was very knowledgeable and forthcoming, although he uses the phrase "YOLO" somewhat more often than most biotech founders. This post isn't a verbatim interview transcript, just a writeup of what I learned based on his answers.

    [Conflict of interest notice: Lantern is mostly rationalists and includes some friends. My wife consulted for them early on. They offered my wife and me free samples (based on her work, not as compensation for writing this post); she accepted, and I'm still debating. Consider this an attempt to spotlight interesting work that people I like are doing, not a hard-hitting investigation.]

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/defying-cavity-lantern-bioworks-faq


    Beyond "Abolish The FDA" Dec 13, 2023
    Show notes

    "Abolish the FDA" has become a popular slogan in libertarian circles. I'm sympathetic to the spirit of the demand. But a slogan isn't a plan, and this one is even less of a plan than usual.

    I used to think that since libertarians always lose, there was no point in having a real plan for what to do if they won. But now that they've gone from "literally always lose" to "only lose 99.9% of the time" . . .

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/beyond-abolish-the-fda


    Mantic Monday 12/4/23 Dec 13, 2023
    Show notes

    Sam Altman || Dating site strategy || Metaculus updates || Wars and rumors of wars

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-12423


    Links For November 2023 Dec 04, 2023
    Show notes

    [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can't guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.]

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/links-for-november-2023

    ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Links:

    1. Heroic Act of Charity
    2. Special Force
    3. More Extreme Party
    4. Hard-Working Tips
    5. Gratitude Journaling
    6. Dopamine and BMI
    7. LLM Attack
    8. Copyright Attack
    9. Gino's Case
    10. Ancestral Genetics
    11. Diet Soda and Autism
    12. Philanthropy Decision
    13. Synod Analysis
    14. DBT in Schools
    15. World Constitution
    16. IWillNeverLogOff
    17. Joseph Cannon
    18. Fertility Cases
    19. Malaria Experiment
    20. Gold Base
    21. Dating Insights
    22. Height Preferences
    23. China's GDP
    24. Africa's Decade
    25. Tax Evasion
    26. College Speedrun
    27. Manifesto Responses
    28. Flight Limit Proposal
    29. AI Risk Regulations
    30. Schizophrenics Study
    31. Clean Water Impact
    32. Minnesota Flag
    33. Marketplace Treasures
    34. AI Risk Debate
    35. AI Regulation
    36. Cult Report: Reddit
    37. Chuck Feeney: Effective Altruism Forum
    38. Doctors' Riot: Wikipedia
    39. Sulfur Aerosols: Copernicus Atmosphere
    40. Joke Party: Wikipedia
    41. Charlemagne's Descendants: Gcbias
    42. Dark Day in 1780: Wikipedia
    43. SAD Light Boxes: Get Brighter
    44. Policy Impact Study: Zach Freitas Groff B-Cdn
    45. Israel-Palestine Map: Reddit​

    Contra DeBoer On Movement Shell Games Dec 04, 2023
    Show notes

    "Lots of alcoholics want to quit in principle, but only some join AA"

    Followup to: In Continued Defense Of Effective Altruism

    Freddie deBoer says effective altruism is "a shell game":

    Who could argue with that! But this summary also invites perhaps the most powerful critique: who could argue with that? That is to say, this sounds like so obvious and general a project that it can hardly denote a specific philosophy or project at all. The immediate response to such a definition, if you're not particularly impressionable or invested in your status within certain obscure internet communities, should be to point out that this is an utterly banal set of goals that are shared by literally everyone who sincerely tries to act charitably . . . Every do-gooder I have ever known has thought of themselves as shining a light on problems that are neglected. So what?

    Generating the most human good through moral action isn't a philosophy; it's an almost tautological statement of what all humans who try to act morally do. This is why I say that effective altruism is a shell game. That which is commendable isn't particular to EA and that which is particular to EA isn't commendable.

    In other words, everyone agrees with doing good, so effective altruism can't be judged on that. Presumably everyone agrees with supporting charities that cure malaria or whatever, so effective altruism can't be judged on that. So you have to go to its non-widely-held beliefs to judge it, and those are things like animal suffering, existential risk, and AI. And (Freddie thinks) those beliefs are dumb. Therefore, effective altruism is bad.

    (as always, I've tried to sum up the argument fairly, but read the original post to make sure.)

    Here are some of my objections to Freddie's point (I already posted some of this as comments on his post):

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-deboer-on-movement-shell-games


    In Continued Defense Of Effective Altruism Dec 01, 2023
    Show notes

    "All you do is cause boardroom drama, and maybe some other things I'm forgetting..."

    I.

    Search "effective altruism" on social media right now, and it's pretty grim.

    Socialists think we're sociopathic Randroid money-obsessed Silicon Valley hypercapitalists.

    But Silicon Valley thinks we're all overregulation-loving authoritarian communist bureaucrats.

    The right thinks we're all woke SJW extremists.

    But the left thinks we're all fascist white supremacists.

    The anti-AI people think we're the PR arm of AI companies, helping hype their products by saying they're superintelligent at this very moment.

    But the pro-AI people think we want to ban all AI research forever and nationalize all tech companies.

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-continued-defense-of-effective


    God Help Us, Let's Try To Understand AI Monosemanticity Dec 01, 2023
    Show notes

    Inside every AI is a bigger AI, trying to get out

    You've probably heard AI is a "black box". No one knows how it works. Researchers simulate a weird type of pseudo-neural-tissue, "reward" it a little every time it becomes a little more like the AI they want, and eventually it becomes the AI they want. But God only knows what goes on inside of it.

    This is bad for safety. For safety, it would be nice to look inside the AI and see whether it's executing an algorithm like "do the thing" or more like "trick the humans into thinking I'm doing the thing". But we can't. Because we can't look inside an AI at all.

    Until now! Towards Monosemanticity, recently out of big AI company/research lab Anthropic, claims to have gazed inside an AI and seen its soul. It looks like this:

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/god-help-us-lets-try-to-understand


    Book Review: I See Satan Fall Like Lightning Nov 23, 2023
    Show notes

    The phrase "I see Satan fall like lightning" comes from Luke 10:18. I'd previously encountered it on insane right-wing conspiracy theory websites. You can rephrase it as "I see Satan descend to earth in the form of lightning." But "lightning" in Hebrew is barak. So the Bible says Satan will descend to Earth in the form of Barak. Seems like a relevant Bible verse for insane right-wing conspiracy theorists!

    Philosopher / theologian Rene Girard's famous book I See Satan Fall Like Lightning isn't directly about Barack Obama being the Antichrist. It's an ambitious theory-of-everything for anthropology, mythography, and the Judeo-Christian religion. After solving all of those venerable fields, it will, sort of, loop back to Barack Obama being the Antichrist. But it'll do it in such an intellectual and polymathic Continental philosophy way that we can't even get mad.

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-i-saw-satan-fall-like


    Does Anaesthesia Prove Ketamine Placebo? Nov 20, 2023
    Show notes

    The psychiatric study everyone's talking about this month is "Randomized trial of ketamine masked by surgical anesthesia in patients with depression".

    Ketamine is a dissociative drug - it produces weird drug effects like feelings of bodylessness and ego death. Recent research suggests it's a powerful antidepressant. Usually we would try to run placebo-controlled trials. But it's hard to run a placebo controlled trial of a dissociative. Either you feel bodylessness and ego death (in which case you know you're getting the real drug) or you don't (in which case you know you're in the placebo group). Sometimes researchers try to use an "active placebo" like midazolam - a drug that makes you feel weird and floaty. But weird and floaty feels different from bodyless and ego-dead.

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/does-anaesthesia-prove-ketamine-placebo


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