Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Secrets Of The Median Voter Theorem Nov 12, 2024

Show notes

The Median Voter Theorem says that, given some reasonable assumptions, the candidate closest to the beliefs of the median voter will win. So if candidates are rational, they'll all end up at the same place on a one-dimensional political spectrum: the exact center.

Here's a simple argument for why this should be true: suppose the Democrats wisely choose a centrist platform, but the Republicans foolishly veer far-right:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/secrets-of-the-median-voter-theorem

ACX Local Voting Guides Nov 12, 2024

Show notes

Thanks to our local meetup groups for doing this! Quick lookup version:

AUSTIN: Guide here BOSTON: Guide here CHICAGO: Guide here LOS ANGELES: Guide here NEW YORK CITY: Guide here OAKLAND/BERKELEY: Guide here PHILADELPHIA: Guide here SAN FRANCISCO: Guide here SEATTLE: Guide here

Longer version with commentary:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/acx-local-voting-guides

Book Review: Deep Utopia Nov 01, 2024

Show notes

What problem do we get after we've solved all other problems?

Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom got famous for asking "What if technology is really really bad?" He helped define 'existential risk', popularize fears of malevolent superintelligence, and argue that we were living in a 'vulnerable world' prone to physical or biological catastrophe.

His latest book breaks from his usual oeuvre. In Deep Utopia, he asks: "What if technology is really really good?"

Most previous utopian literature (he notes) has been about 'shallow' utopias. There are still problems; we just handle them better. There's still scarcity, but at least the government distributes resources fairly. There's still sickness and death, but at least everyone has free high-quality health care.

But Bostrom asks: what if there were literally no problems? What if you could do literally whatever you wanted?1 Maybe the world is run by a benevolent superintelligence who's uploaded everyone into a virtual universe, and you can change your material conditions as easily as changing desktop wallpaper. Maybe we have nanobots too cheap to meter, and if you whisper 'please make me a five hundred story palace, with a thousand servants who all look exactly like Marilyn Monroe', then your wish will be their command. If you want to be twenty feet tall and immortal, the only thing blocking you is the doorframe.

Would this be as good as it sounds? Or would people's lives become boring and meaningless?

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-deep-utopia

AI Art Turing Test Nov 01, 2024

Show notes

Okay, let's do this! Link is here, should take about twenty minutes. I'll close the form on Monday 10/21 and post results the following week.

I'll put an answer key in the comments here, and have a better one including attributions in the results post. DON'T READ THE COMMENTS UNTIL YOU'RE DONE.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-art-turing-test

Book Review Contest 2024 Winners Nov 01, 2024

Show notes

Thanks to everyone who entered or voted in the book review contest. The winners are:

1st: Two Arms And A Head, reviewed by AmandaFromBethlehem. Amanda is active in the Philadelphia ACX community. This is her first year entering the Book Review Contest, and she is currently working on a silly novel about an alien who likes thermodynamics. When she's not writing existential horror, she practices Tengwar calligraphy and does home improvement projects.
2nd: Nine Lives, reviewed by David Matolcsi. David is an AI safety researcher from Hungary, currently living in Berkeley. He doesn't have much publicly available writing yet, but plans to publish some new blog posts on LessWrong in the coming months
3rd: How The War Was Won, reviewed by Jack Thorlin. Jack previously worked as an attorney at the Central Intelligence Agency, and is now an assistant professor at the University of Arkansas School of Law.

First place gets $2,500, second place $1,000, third place gets $500. Email me at scott@slatestarcodex.com to tell me how to send you money; your choices are Paypal, Bitcoin, Ethereum, check in the mail, or donation to your favorite charity. Please contact me by October 21 or you lose your prize.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-contest-2024-winners

SB 1047: Our Side Of The Story Nov 01, 2024

Show notes

My ex-girlfriend has a weird relationship to reality. Her actions ripple out into the world more heavily than other people's. She finds herself at the center of events more often than makes sense. One time someone asked her to explain the whole "AI risk" thing to a State Senator. She hadn't realized states had senators, but it sounded important, so she gave it a try, figuring out her exact pitch on the car ride to his office.

A few months later, she was informed that the Senator had really taken her words to heart, and he'd been thinking hard about how he could help. This is part of the story behind SB 1047 - specifically, the only part I have any personal connection to. The rest of this post comes from anonymous sources in the pro-1047 community who wanted to tell their side of the story.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/sb-1047-our-side-of-the-story

Triple Tragedy And Thankful Theory Oct 26, 2024

Show notes

I accept guest posts from certain people, especially past Book Review Contest winners. Earlier this year, I published Daniel Böttger's essay Consciousness As Recursive Reflections.

While we were working on editing it, Daniel had some dramatic experiences and revelations, culminating in him developing a theory which he says "will contribute to saving the world", which he asked me to publish.

Although I can't speak for its world-historical importance, and although he admits his mental state is fragile, after some discussion I decided to publish because - if nothing else - he's a great writer with a fascinating story and some really interesting thoughts.

Content warning for medical horror; you can skip to the section "Thankful Theory" to avoid this.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/triple-tragedy-and-thankful-theory

Against The Cultural Christianity Argument Oct 26, 2024

Show notes

The "cultural Christianity" argument says that atheists might not like Christianity, but they like a culture which depends on Christianity. They like open, free, thoughtful, liberal, beautiful, virtuous societies. Unmoored from a connection to Christanity, a society will gradually have less of those goods, until even atheists are unhappy.

Therefore (continues the argument), atheists should be cultural Christians. While they can continue to privately disbelieve, they should support an overall Christian society, which they can dwell contentedly on the fringes of. I think this is sort of where Ayaan Hirsi Ali is coming from.

https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-against-the-cultural-christianity

Preliminary Milei Report Card Oct 26, 2024

Show notes

How is Javier Milei, the new-ish libertarian president of Argentina doing?

According to right-wing sources, he's doing amazing, inflation is vanquished, and Argentina is on the road to First World status.

According to left-wing sources, he's devastating the country, inflation has ballooned, and Argentina is mired in unprecedented dire poverty.

I was confused enough to investigate further. Going through various topics in more depth:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/preliminary-milei-report-card

How Often Do Men Think About Rome? Oct 19, 2024

Show notes

Exegi monumentum aere perennius

There's a Twitter meme on how men constantly think about the Roman Empire. Some feminist friends objected that women think about Rome a lot too. To settle the matter, I included a question about this on this year's ACX survey, "Have you thought about the Roman Empire in the past 24 hours?" (the Byzantine Empire also counted). Here are responses from 607 cis women and 4,925 cis men:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/how-often-do-men-think-about-rome