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    Technology

    Astral Codex Ten Podcast

    The official audio version of Astral Codex Ten, with an archive of posts from Slate Star Codex. It’s just me reading Scott Alexander’s blog posts.

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    Latest Episodes:
    Your Review: School Jul 11, 2025
    Show notes

    [This is one of the finalists in the 2025 review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. It was originally given an Honorable Mention, but since last week's piece was about an exciting new experimental school, I decided to promote this more conservative review as a counterpoint.]

    "Democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." - Winston Churchill

    "There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, "I don't see the use of this; let us clear it away." To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: "If you don't see the use of it, I certainly won't let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it." - G.K. Chesterton

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-review-school


    Highlights From The Comments On Missing Heritability Jul 07, 2025
    Show notes

    [Original thread here: Missing Heritability: Much More Than You Wanted To Know]

    1: Comments From People Named In The Post 2: Very Long Comments From Other Very Knowledgeable People 3: Small But Important Corrections 4: Other Comments

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-missing-ed5


    Links For July 2025 Jul 07, 2025
    Show notes

    [I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can't guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.]

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/links-for-july-2025


    Contra Skolnick On Schizophrenia Microbes Jul 07, 2025
    Show notes

    Stephen Skolnick is a gut microbiome expert blogging at Eat Shit And Prosper. His most recent post argues that contra the psychiatric consensus, schizophrenia isn't genetic at all - it's caused by a gut microbe. He argues:

    1. Scientists think schizophrenia is genetic because it obviously runs in families
    2. But the twin concordance rates are pretty low - if your identical twin has schizophrenia, there's only about a 30%-40% chance that you get it too. Is that really what we would expect from a genetic disease?
    3. Also, scientists have looked for schizophrenia genes, and can only find about 1-2% as many as they were expecting.
    4. So maybe we should ask how a disease can run in families without being genetic. Gut microbiota provide an answer: most people "catch" their gut microbiome from their parents.
    5. Studies find that schizophrenics have very high levels of a gut bacterium called Ruminococcus gnavus.
    6. This bacterium secretes psychoactive chemicals. Constant exposure to these chemicals might be the cause of schizophrenia.

    I disagree with all of this. Going in order:

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-skolnick-on-schizophrenia


    Your Review: Alpha School Jul 04, 2025
    Show notes

    [This is one of the finalists in the 2025 review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked]

    "Just as we don't accept students using AI to write their essays, we will not accept districts using AI to supplant the critical role of teachers."

    — Arthur Steinberg, American Federation of Teachers‑PA, reacting to Alpha's cyber‑charter bid, January 2025

    In January 2025, the charter school application of "Unbound Academy", a subsidiary of "2 Hour Learning, Inc", lit up the education press: two hours of "AI‑powered" academics, 2.6x learning velocity, and zero teachers. Sympathetic reporters repeated the slogans; union leaders reached for pitchforks; Reddit muttered "another rich‑kid scam." More sophisticated critics dismissed the pitch as "selective data from expensive private schools".

    But there is nowhere on the internet that provides a detailed, non-partisan, description of what the "2 hour learning" program actually is, let alone an objective third party analysis to back up its claims.

    2-Hour Learning's flagship school is the "Alpha School" in Austin Texas. The Alpha homepage makes three claims:

    1. Love School
    2. Learn 2X in two-hours per day
    3. Learn Life Skills

    Only the second claim seems to be controversial, which may be exactly why that is the claim the Alpha PR team focuses on. That PR campaign makes three more sub-claims on what the two-hour, 2x learning really means:

    1. "Learn 2.6X faster." (on average)
    2. "Only two hours of academics per day."
    3. "Powered by AI (not teachers)."

    If all of this makes your inner Bayesian flinch, you're in good company. After twenty‑odd years of watching shiny education fixes wobble and crash—KIPP, AltSchool, Summit Learning, One-laptop-per-child, No child left behind, MOOCs, Khan‑for‑Everything—you should be skeptical. Either Alpha is (a) another program for the affluent propped up by selection effects, or (b) a clever way to turn children into joyless speed‑reading calculators. Those were, more or less, the two critical camps that emerged when Alpha's parent company was approved to launch the tuition‑free Arizona charter school this past January.

    Unfortunately, the public evidence base on whether this is "real" is thin in both directions. Alpha's own material is glossy and elliptical; mainstream coverage either repeats Alpha's talking points, or attacks the premise that kids should even be allowed to learn faster than their peers. Until Raj Chetty installs himself in the hallway with a clipboard counting MAP percentiles it is hard to get real information on what exactly Alpha is doing, whether it is actually working beyond selection effects, and if there is anyway it could scale in a way that all the other education initiatives seemed to fail to do.

    I first heard about Alpha in May 2024, and in the absence of randomized‑controlled clarity, I did what any moderately obsessive parent with three elementary-aged kids and an itch for data would do: I moved the family across the country to Austin for a year and ran the experiment myself (unfortunately, despite trying my best we never managed to have identical twins, so I stopped short of running a proper control group. My wife was less disappointed than I was).

    Since last autumn I've collected the sort of on‑the‑ground detail that doesn't surface in press releases, or is available anywhere online: long chats with founders, curriculum leads, "guides" (not teachers), Brazilian Zoom coaches, sceptical parents, ecstatic parents, and the kids who live inside the Alpha dashboard – including my own. I hope this seven-part review can help share what the program actually is and that this review is more open minded than the critics, but is something that would never get past an Alpha public relations gatekeeper:

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-review-alpha-school


    Missing Heritability: Much More Than You Wanted To Know Jul 01, 2025
    Show notes

    The Story So Far

    The mid-20th century was the golden age of nurture. Psychoanalysis, behaviorism, and the spirit of the '60s convinced most experts that parents, peers, and propaganda were the most important causes of adult personality.

    Starting in the 1970s, the pendulum swung the other way. Twin studies shocked the world by demonstrating that most behavioral traits - especially socially relevant traits like IQ - were substantially genetic. Typical estimates for adult IQ found it was about 60% genetic, 40% unpredictable, and barely related at all to parenting or family environment.

    By the early 2000s, genetic science reached a point where scientists could start pinpointing the particular genes behind any given trait. Early candidate gene studies, which hoped to find single genes with substantial contributions to IQ, depression, or crime, mostly failed. They were replaced with genome wide association studies, which accepted that most interesting traits were polygenic - controlled by hundreds or thousands of genes - and trawled the whole genome searching for variants that might explain 0.1% or even 0.01% of the pie. The goal shifted toward polygenic scores - algorithms that accepted thousands of genes as input and spit out predictions of IQ, heart disease risk, or some other outcome of interest.

    The failed candidate gene studies had sample sizes in the three or four digits. The new genome-wide studies needed five or six digits to even get started. It was prohibitively difficult for individual studies to gather so many subjects, genotype them, and test them for the outcome of interest, so work shifted to big centralized genome repositories - most of all the UK Biobank - and easy-to-measure traits. Among the easiest of all was educational attainment (EA), ie how far someone had gotten in school. Were they a high school dropout? A PhD? Somewhere in between? This correlated with all the spicy outcomes of interest people wanted to debate - IQ, wealth, social class - while being objective and easy to ask about on a survey.

    Twin studies suggested that IQ was about 60% genetic, and EA about 40%. This seemed to make sense at the time - how far someone gets in school depends partly on their intelligence, but partly on fuzzier social factors like class / culture / parenting. The first genome-wide studies and polygenic scores found enough genes to explain 2%pp1 of this 40% pie. The remaining 38%, which twin studies deemed genetic but where researchers couldn't find the genes - became known as "the missing heritability" or "the heritability gap".

    Scientists came up with two hypothesis for the gap, which have been dueling ever since:

    1. Maybe twin studies are wrong.
    2. Maybe there are genes we haven't found yet

    For most of the 2010s, hypothesis 2 looked pretty good. Researchers gradually gathered bigger and bigger sample sizes, and found more and more of the missing heritability. A big 2018 study increased the predictive power of known genes from 2% to 10%. An even bigger 2022 study increased it to 14%, and current state of the art is around 17%. Seems like it was sample size after all! Once the samples get big enough we'll reach 40% and finally close the gap, right?

    This post is the story of how that didn't happen, of the people trying to rehabilitate the twin-studies-are-wrong hypothesis, and of the current status of the debate. Its most important influence/foil is Sasha Gusev, whose blog The Infintesimal introduced me to the new anti-hereditarian movement and got me to research it further, but it's also inspired by Eric Turkheimer, Alex Young (not himself an anti-hereditarian, but his research helped ignite interest in this area), and Awais Aftab.

    (while I was working on this draft, the East Hunter Substack wrote a similar post. Theirs is good and I recommend it, but I think this one adds enough that I'm publishing anyway)

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/missing-heritability-much-more-than


    Open Questions For Future ACX Grants Rounds Jul 01, 2025
    Show notes

    Related to: ACX Grants 1-3 Year Updates

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-questions-for-future-acx-grants


    ACX Grants 1-3 Year Updates Jun 29, 2025
    Show notes

    The first cohort of ACX Grants was announced in late 2021, the second in early 2024. In 2022, I posted one-year updates for the first cohort. Now, as I start thinking about a third round, I've collected one-year updates on the second and three-year updates on the first.

    Many people said my request for updates went to their spam folder; relatedly, many people have not yet sent in their updates. If you're a grantee who didn't see my original email, but you do see this post, please fill in the update form here.

    All quote blocks are the grantees' own words; text outside of quote blocks is my commentary.

    https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-acx-grants-1-3-year-updates


    The Claude Bliss Attractor Jun 18, 2025
    Show notes

    This is a reported phenomenon where if two copies of Claude talk to each other, they end up spiraling into rapturous discussion of spiritual bliss, Buddhism, and the nature of consciousness. From the system card:

    Anthropic swears they didn't do this on purpose; when they ask Claude why this keeps happening, Claude can't explain. Needless to say, this has made lots of people freak out / speculate wildly.

    I think there are already a few good partial explanations of this (especially Nostalgebraist here), but they deserve to be fleshed out and spread more fully.

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-claude-bliss-attractor


    "But" vs. "Yes, But" Jun 18, 2025
    Show notes

    This is another heuristic from the same place as If It's Worth Your Time To Lie, It's Worth My Time To Correct You.

    If someone proves you are absolutely, 100% wrong about something, it's polite to say "Oh, I guess I was wrong, sorry" before launching into your next argument.

    That is, instead of:

    https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-but-vs-yes-but


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