IMF AGI Preparation
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/Scenario-Planning-for-an-AGI-future-Anton-korinek
Anton Korinek
Fellow, Brookings Institute
Professor, UVA
Former, Johns Hopkins, IMF
Frontier of Automation - Task complexity of machines increases over time
Unbounded Distribution - Human task complexity can go up indefinitely, meaning that some people will always be ahead of AGI and ASI
Bounded Distribution - Humans have a maximum task complexity (Theory of General Relativity)
Outlines 3 Scenarios
1. Business as Usual - All current trends continue without the frontier of automation continuing
2. 20 Year Baseline - AGI's frontier of automation subsumes most/all human abilities within about 20 years
3. 5 Year Aggressive - AGI's frontier of automation subsumes most/all human abilities within 5 years (more likely)
Wages vs Output
1. Business as Usual - Wages and output continue to grow more or less correlated for the foreseeable future
2. 20 Year Baseline - Productivity (output) accelerates, but wages peak by about 10 years and then collapse to zero or near zero
3. 5 Year Aggressive - Same, but the parabolic curve is steeper (more likely IMHO)
Persistent Jobs
- Nostalgiac Jobs - Human preference for humans (such as politicians and religious positions)
- Experience Jobs - Tour guides, sex workers, performing artists
- Care Jobs - Child care, massage therapy, nurses
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