Above Avalon

Latest Episodes:

Above Avalon Episode 120: An iPhone Turning Point Mar 03, 2018

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 120: An iPhone Turning Point Neil Cybart Download

Episode 120 is focused on how Apple's dramatic change in strategy regarding larger iPhones was driven by the realization that iPad mini was the wrong bet. After discussing the early iPad years, Neil goes over the background behind how the iPad mini came to be. Neil then discusses how Apple found itself flat-footed with larger smartphone screens and how a different perspective toward smartphones and tablets ultimately led Apple to a stronger iPhone vision and strategy. The episode concludes with three lessons to be taken from the situation. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Links:

The iPhone's Turning Point (Above Avalon weekly article)

More information on becoming an Above Avalon subscriber

Subscribe:

Apple Podcasts

Overcast

RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (120 episodes) is available here.

Follow:

Neil Cybart (host/producer)

The Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 119: The iPhone's Goldilocks Era Feb 24, 2018

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 119: The iPhone's Goldilocks Era Neil Cybart Download

The unit sales growth era that had defined iPhone for years is over. Episode 119 is dedicated to discussing the iPhone's new era that can best be characterized as status quo. After discussing iPhone sales trends, Neil goes over six headwinds that have come together to create a much less friendly iPhone sales growth environment. The discussion turns to how the dynamic between the two main iPhone sales drivers show a more resilient business. Neil then goes over how key iPhone fundamentals will trend during the Goldilocks era. The episode concludes with a look at the risks and wildcards to the iPhone business. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Links:

The Goldilocks Era for iPhone Has Begun (Above Avalon weekly article)

The Goldilocks Era for iPhone, Apple's Lack of iPhone Visibility, Thursday Q&A (daily update for subscribers)

Apple 1Q18 Earnings Review (daily update for subscribers)

More information on becoming an Above Avalon subscriber

Subscribe:

Apple Podcasts

Overcast

RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (119 episodes) is available here.

Follow:

Neil Cybart (host/producer)

The Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 118: Apple Watch Is a Bridge to the Future Jan 27, 2018

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 118: Apple Watch Is a Bridge to the Future Neil Cybart Download

Something is changing when it comes to the way people are thinking about Apple Watch. We are witnessing nothing short of a revolution with Apple Watch. In Episode 118, Neil discusses how Apple Watch has become a bridge between the present and future. The device holds the potential to become more disruptive to the current computing paradigm than even Apple may want to acknowledge. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Links:

Apple Watch Is a Bridge to the Future (Above Avalon weekly article)

Apple Watch & Apple Music ad (YouTube)

More information on becoming an Above Avalon subscriber

Subscribe:

Apple Podcasts

Overcast

RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (118 episodes) is available here.

Follow:

Neil Cybart (host/producer)

The Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 117: Lots of Questions Jan 13, 2018

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 117: Lots of Questions Neil Cybart Download

January is a great time to embrace the unknown found with a new year. Episode 117 is focused on going over my list of questions for Apple in 2018. We cover more than 60 questions on subjects that range from Apple's major product categories to various managerial and organizational topics. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple Questions for 2018 (weekly article)

More information on becoming an Above Avalon member

Subscribe to the Above Avalon Podcast:

Apple Podcasts

Overcast

RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (117 episodes) is available here.

Twitter:

Above Avalon Episode 116: Grading Apple's 2017 Jan 06, 2018

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 116: Grading Apple's 2017 Neil Cybart Download

Episode 116 is dedicated to reviewing Apple's performance in 2017. After briefly discussing my methodology for grading Apple, we discuss the various milestones and issues that impacted the company in 2017. My grading process is broken into seven categories (iPad, Apple Watch, iPhone, Mac, Accessories, Services, Financial Strategy). The episode concludes with my overall grade for Apple in 2017 and a few closing thoughts on what turned out to be a very busy year for management. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Grading Apple's 2017 (weekly article)

Apple Publishes Message About iPhone Throttling (member email)

More information on becoming an Above Avalon member

Subscribe to the Above Avalon Podcast:

Apple Podcasts

Overcast

RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (116 episodes) is available here.

Twitter:

Above Avalon Episode 115: Betting on Hardware Dec 23, 2017

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 115: Betting on Hardware Neil Cybart Download

Apple isn't a hardware company. Nevertheless, hardware's importance to Apple continues to grow. Episode 115 is dedicated to discussing Apple's growing bet on hardware. The episode begins by going over Apple's hardware strategy and includes a brief history of Apple's approach to hardware. The discussion then turns to Apple's hardware scale as we go over the company's overall product sales. We conclude with how Apple is doubling down on hardware in order to become the most powerful software provider in the wearables era. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple's Growing Bet on Hardware (weekly article)

Above Avalon Podcast archive

More information on becoming an Above Avalon member

Subscribe to the Above Avalon Podcast:

Apple Podcasts

Overcast

RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (115 episodes) is available here.

Twitter:

Above Avalon Episode 114: The End to Apple's Cash Dilemma Dec 16, 2017

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 114: The End to Apple's Cash Dilemma Neil Cybart Download

The probability of a U.S. corporate tax overhaul has never been higher. Episode 114 is dedicated to discussing how upcoming changes to the U.S. corporate tax code will impact Apple. We begin by going over Apple's current cash dilemma. The discussion then turns to the two significant changes that will take place with Apple's cash and balance sheet strategy assuming the U.S. corporate tax code is overhauled. The rest of the episode is dedicated to talking about Apple's excess cash and the options to spend the excess cash that Apple faces. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

The End to Apple's Cash Dilemma (weekly article)

Apple's Stock Buyback Program Primer (Above Avalon member exclusive analysis)

Probability of Apple Launching a Tender Offer (Above Avalon member exclusive analysis)

More information on becoming an Above Avalon member

Subscribe to the Above Avalon Podcast:

Apple Podcasts

Overcast

RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (114 episodes) is available here.

Twitter:

Above Avalon Episode 113: It's a Smart Speaker Mirage Dec 02, 2017

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 113: It's a Smart Speaker Mirage Neil Cybart Download

We are in the midst of a massive mindshare bubble involving stationary smart speakers in the home. Episode 113 is dedicated to discussing stationary smart speakers powered by digital voice assistants. After going over my Amazon Echo sales estimate, we look at why certain companies are placing big bets on stationary smart speakers and why there are already signs that the rosy and optimistic narrative facing the product category is off. The discussion then turns to the three distinct possibilities as to the stationary smart speaker's future. We end with how smart speakers ultimately end up competing with wearables. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

A Stationary Smart Speaker Mirage (weekly article)

TechCrunch's initial take on Amazon Echo from 2014

Estimating Amazon Echo sales (member email)

Apple Watch adoption math (member email)

Become an Above Avalon member

Listen and subscribe to the Above Avalon Podcast:

Apple Podcasts

Overcast

RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (113 episodes) is available here.

Twitter:

Above Avalon Episode 112: The Art of Disclosure Nov 18, 2017

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 112: The Art of Disclosure Neil Cybart Download

The fourth season of the Above Avalon Podcast kicks off with a discussion focused on Apple Watch sales disclosure. We take a closer look at the debate surrounding disclosure to see how Apple now stands to benefit more from disclosing Apple Watch sales than from keeping them hidden. The discussion goes over the four major changes that have swung the disclosure debate in favor of Apple providing Apple Watch data. We look at one possible path that Apple can use going forward to disclose Apple Watch sales on a quarterly basis. The episode concludes with a broader look at financial disclosure at public companies and how Apple manages its financial disclosure strategy. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

It's Time for Apple to Disclose Apple Watch Sales (weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 102: Apple Cash Influence (podcast)

Apple Watch Installed Base and User Base Estimates (member email)

More information on Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe to the Above Avalon Podcast:

iTunes

Overcast

RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (112 episodes) is available here.

Twitter:

Above Avalon Episode 111: Let's Talk iPhone X Nov 04, 2017

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 111: Let's Talk iPhone X Neil Cybart Download

Apple was faced with a choice: Stick with the familiar and milk the iPhone business for all it’s worth, or throw familiarity out the window to pave a new iPhone journey for the next 10 years. Apple chose the latter, and iPhone X is the byproduct. Episode 111 is dedicated to discussing iPhone X. We begin by going over Apple's motivation behind iPhone X. The discussion then turns to my initial impressions and thoughts from using the device. We go over Apple's strategy regarding iPhone X reviews and conclude with Apple's ultimate goal with iPhone X. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

iPhone X (weekly article)

iPhone X Initial Impressions (video)

Apple 4Q17 Earnings Review (email for Above Avalon members)

More information on Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe to the Above Avalon Podcast:

iTunes

Overcast

RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive is available here.

Twitter:

Neil Cybart