Above Avalon

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Neil Cybart (host/producer)

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Above Avalon Episode 149: Letting Go of the Rope Jun 22, 2019

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 149: Letting Go of the Rope Neil Cybart Download

Despite there being no discernible change to the grand vision behind Apple’s product development, there does appear to be a noteworthy change in strategy. Episode 149 is dedicated to discussing how Apple’s product strategy has changed from a pull system to a push system. Additional topics include product-related implications raised by Apple’s revised strategy, the Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products, and why I’m hesitant about some aspects of the change. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Links:

Apple’s Product Strategy Is Changing (weekly article)

Product Vision: How Apple Thinks About the World (quarterly report)

Addressing the Hole in the Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products (daily update)

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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (149 episodes) is available here.

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Neil Cybart (host/producer)

Above Avalon Episode 148: Apple's Billion Users Jun 01, 2019

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Above Avalon Episode 148: Apple's Billion Users Neil Cybart Download

Apple has reached a level of ecosystem strength that still hasn’t been fully digested by the marketplace. In episode 148, we discuss Apple’s ecosystem ahead of the company’s developers conference. Additional topics include how I estimated the total number of Apple users, various revenue per user figures for different parts of Apple’s user base, the difference between Apple in 2019 and the 1990s, and how wearables represent one of Apple’s key growth opportunities. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Links:

Apple’s Billion Users (weekly article)

The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products (weekly article)

Estimating iPhone, iPad, and Mac Installed Bases (daily update)

Above Avalon membership page (info, sign-up forms, and FAQ)

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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (148 episodes) is available here.

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Neil Cybart (host/producer)

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Above Avalon Episode 147: A Faster Bumper Car May 18, 2019

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 147: A Faster Bumper Car Neil Cybart Download

In episode 147, we take a look at the changing competitive landscape facing the giants (Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft). Comparing the situation to bumper cars, we discuss why Google and Facebook have the slower cars that are no longer able to hide within the traffic. Additional topics include deep dives into three competitive battles in particular: Apple vs. Google, Apple vs. Facebook, and Amazon vs. Facebook vs. Google. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Links:

Tech's Tectonic Plates Are Starting to Shift (weekly article)

Facebook F8, Microsoft Build, Google I/O, Overall Takeaways (daily update)

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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (147 episodes) is available here.

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Neil Cybart (host/producer)

Apple 2Q19 Earnings Preview

Above Avalon Episode 146: Tackling Apple's Excess Cash Apr 27, 2019

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 146: Tackling Apple's Excess Cash Neil Cybart Download

In what has become an annual trend, Apple uses FY2Q earnings to also update its share buyback authorization and quarterly cash dividend. In episode 146, we preview the changes Apple will likely announce to its capital return program. The discussion begins by going over how Apple has adjusted its buyback pace following U.S. tax reform and why the company will eventually have to cut back on buyback. We then go over my expectations for what Apple’s board will approve in terms of increases to the buyback authorization and quarterly cash dividend. Additional topics include the debate surrounding Apple capital return and why the company has so few viable options for spending excess cash. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Links:

Apple’s $400 Billion Buyback Program (weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 124: Doubling the Buyback (podcast)

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Neil Cybart (host/producer)

Above Avalon Episode 145: It's All About Curation Apr 13, 2019

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Above Avalon Episode 145: It's All About Curation Neil Cybart Download

At Apple’s recent event at Steve Jobs Theater, the company unveiled its revamped content distribution arm. Episode 145 is dedicated to discussing Apple’s new content distribution services: Apple News+, Apple Arcade, and Apple TV+. Instead of just announcing services for consuming more content, Apple unveiled a strategy for curating content for its user base of a billion people, something that I am calling “Curation for Casual.” The discussion also goes over how curation explains Apple’s move into original content. Additional topics include a few surprises unveiled at Apple’s Services event, the history behind Apple’s video distribution strategy, the changing content consumption landscape, and Apple’s content distribution arm eventually being considered a core technology powering Apple devices. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Links:

Why Apple Is Getting Into Original Content (weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 140: Let’s Talk Content (podcast)

Opening Film - March 2019 Apple Event (YouTube)

Apple’s “Curation for Casual” Strategy, Content Distribution as a Core Technology, Apple’s Cross-Platform Strategy for Content (daily update)

Curation as a Business Model (daily update)

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Neil Cybart (host/producer)

Above Avalon Episode 144: Checking Up on iPad Mar 23, 2019

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Above Avalon Episode 144: Checking Up on iPad Neil Cybart Download

In recent years, the iPad line has undergone transformational changes. In episode 144, we look at Apple’s broader iPad strategy to add context to the newest updates involving the iPad mini and iPad Air. The episode kicks off with my thoughts on the new devices. The discussion then turns to the three sales phases that have come to define the iPad business over the years. Additional topics include Peak iPad mini, how Apple is following an iPhone / Mac hybrid approach when it comes to iPad updates, whether the iPad line is too complex or complicated, and observations on the current iPad line. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Links:

Thoughts on Apple’s Revised iPad Line (weekly article)

Peak iPad Mini (weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 120: An iPhone Turning Point (podcast)

The iPhone’s Turning Point - iPad mini vs. larger iPad sales chart (weekly article)

Thoughts Heading into Apple’s Show Time Event (daily update)

Above Avalon membership (sign-up forms, full list of member privileges and benefits, and FAQ)

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RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (144 episodes) is available here.

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Neil Cybart (host/producer)

Above Avalon Episode 143: Look at the Capex Mar 16, 2019

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 143: Look at the Capex Neil Cybart Download

For the first time in 16 years, Apple expects its capital expenditures (capex) to decline during the current fiscal year. Episode 143 is dedicated to discussing capex and how the financial metric provides a different look at how Apple is unique in comparison to its largest peers. Additional topics include defining capex, the theories behind Apple’s declining capex, the dramatic capex shift occurring among the Wall Street giants, and how capex shines light on a company’s cash-generating machine. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Links:

Apple’s Declining Capex (weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 122: An Apple R&D Bonanza (podcast)

Apple’s Free Cash Flow Advantage / Revisiting Apple’s Wall Street Narrative (daily update)

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Neil Cybart (host/producer)

Above Avalon Episode 142: Rethinking the Smart Home Feb 23, 2019

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 142: Rethinking the Smart Home Neil Cybart Download

In one word, the smart home has been disappointing. Episode 142 is focused on why the way we think about digital homes is in need of a major reset. After going over my thoughts on the current state of the smart home, we take a closer look at Apple’s vision for the home and why the company is likely looking to revamp its broader home strategy. Additional topics include how Amazon and Google have used voice to hijack the smart home in order to push alternative visions and Apple hiring Sam Jadallah to lead its various home initiatives. We also discuss how Apple can revamp its home strategy and why the smart home path is going to be bumpy going forward. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Links:

Revamping Apple’s Home Strategy (weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 113: It’s a Smart Speaker Mirage (podcast)

Above Avalon Episode 140: Let’s Talk Content (podcast)

The End of the Connected Home (Medium)

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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (142 episodes) is available here.

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Neil Cybart (host/producer)

Above Avalon Episode 141: Viral AirPods Feb 16, 2019

Show notes

Above Avalon Episode 141: Viral AirPods Neil Cybart Download

There’s a remarkable story found with AirPods. Nearly two years after launch, AirPods began to go viral at the end of November 2018. In December, search interest was up 500%. This is unprecedented for an Apple product. In episode 141, we take a deep dive into the AirPods phenomenon and how the product became part of culture. Additional topics include AirPods unit sales, the size of the AirPods user base, the keys to success in wearables, and thinking of wearables as battles for real estate on our wrists, ears, eyes, and body. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Links:

AirPods Have Gone Viral (weekly article)

Inside Edition video (YouTube)

AirPod “Airings” (Twitter)

Estimating AirPods Sales (daily update)

Calculating the Mix of Apple Devices in Use (daily update)

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