The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary

Latest Episodes:

Emergency Pod: Manchester City and the 114 out of 115 charges Sep 26, 2026

Show notes

It is reported that the Premier League's indepedent panel has ruled that Manchester City committed 114 breaches of league rules. The Double Pivot has been covering this story for nearly a decade and we do not plan to stop. We explain under what exact legal auspices this investigation and now verdict were issued, why and how the Premier League came to a point where maximal punishments for Man City are on the table, the underlying rules and their relation to competitive fairness, the unknowable timeline of what comes next and all the ways this could still spiral further.

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Does the PL midtable start at third place? Sep 25, 2026

Show notes

We have tables to sort and Caley has a toy model and some thoughts on regression. It is time to talk about City and Arsenal at the top of the table, why they're the best teams in the league but what concerns the early numbers reveal, and then... Brentford and Brighton. Because it does seem like the Premier League midtable starts at third.

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Is the Meat Wall Cooked? and other early season observations Sep 15, 2026

Show notes

We take a look at the early season data on set pieces and whether things feel different because they are different, or whether set pieces are still due for a big comeback. And then it's on to Arsenal: are they just the same? Liverpool, United and Chelsea: why aren't they good yet? And whether there's anyone in the Premier League who can take advantage of the early stumbles of some of the richest clubs.

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The Champions League Top 10 Sep 09, 2026

Show notes

We talk briefly about some of the very best teams in the world and why Barcelona and Real Madrid are currently rated about equally with Arsenal, PSG and Bayern Munich, why City look one step back, and then we work through the more complicated questions at the back of the top 10: Liverpool or Inter Milan? United or Como, Roma, Atletico, or Dortmund?

Plus a little bit on why the draw did not benefit the Premier League this season.

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Transfer Roundup Part I: City's Midfield Rebuild, Bruno at Arsenal Sep 04, 2026

Show notes

Manchester City spent an enormous amount of money on three midfielders. We have already sufficiently raved about Elliot Anderson, but we are nonplussed about Enzo Fernandez, an excellent player whose usage has been notably odd over time and who might not be a 100 million pound player unless that changes. Ayyoub Bouaddi as a signing for the future. And we rave about Bruno Guimaraes at Arsenal. Also this is secretly a podcast about Nicolo Barella.

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Xabi Alonso's Chelsea Might Be Crazy Sep 01, 2026

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Two exceptionally strange opening matches for Chelsea, two back and forth high scoring matches where Chelsea mostly conceded possession with a lead, but both deserved wins, and both featuring a new thing under the sun in a "box and one" buildup structure. We walk through what we've seen so far, whether it is anything or not, how it fits within Xabi Alonso's career and ideas, and talk about how Morgan Rogers' new role may work and whether there was ever room for Enzo Fernandez here.

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Premier League Week One: Spreadsheets vs Eye Test Aug 27, 2026

Show notes

Caley didn't watch the games because he was off the grid. Goodman managed to watch despite being in the middle of a move. But as befits the whole deal of this podcast, it isn't so much about how these two methods disagree as piecing together the stories of the matches from the data and the eye test. Talking about Hull City - Manchester United, Manchester City - Bournemouth, Newcastle - Liverpool, Brentford - Tottenham, Fulham - Chelsea and Everton - Palace.

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Premier League Season Preview Draft: Part I Aug 17, 2026

Show notes

The Double Pivot Premier League season preview draft is back. We draft our top ten. All the big teams are here. Caley cheated and built a toy model and it has some unexpected picks. We discuss why few of these teams have overwhelmed us this summer but we expect a highly competitive top of the table in 26-27.

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Premier League Dominance? Private Equity In Europe? The Uncertain New Football Economy Aug 14, 2026

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Why have so many of the top signings this summer been within the Premier League? Why does the Premier League keep winning the Europa and Conference Leagues? The reason is simply that the Premier League has more money and the reason for that is the massive (and reasonably equitably-split) Premier League television contract. We talk through what has changed and when it changed, and how this connects to the increasing trend of private equity ownership, and what might be next for the football economy.

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Infantin-Out? The FIFA private equity scandal and what comes next Aug 04, 2026

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Huge FIFA news post World Cup as Gianni Infantino attempted to sell off shares in the World Cup in a very dubious deal, saw it collapse amid stern resistance from UEFA, and is suddenly facing a potential vote of no confidence. Is it possible reform is actually coming to FIFA? What does UEFA actually want? What would a new majority coalition look like? We go into the history of Havelange's and Blatter's FIFA, the ways that FIFA has always blended cutthroat capitalism and old-school corruption, the long-running FIFA-UEFA cold war, and the wholly unclear current state of play among the FAs.

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