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Rational Dissent

Bianco Research L.L.C. has been a source of objective research and unique insights into financial markets for over 20 years. We combine cutting-edge analytics and a highly visual approach to provide clear, concise conclusions in a data driven market.

Latest Episodes:

Episode 011. Three Risks That Matter More Than Terminator AI Oct 02, 2026

Show notes

Looking past the sensational headlines, we analyze the measurable risks truly driving markets—from Europe's winter energy vulnerabilities and cracks in distressed corporate credit to the Fed funding pressures behind the Treasury basis trade.

Chapters

00:00 - Introduction & Risks

01:46 - Energy Market Breakdown

04:07 - Europe Natural Gas Watch

07:24 - AI Debt and Credit Spreads

09:55 - Oracle and CCC Stress

12:31 - Basis Trade Explained

15:36 - Funding Market Triggers

21:50 - Crowded Trade and Transparency

26:36 - Energy and Global Fallout

31:20 - One Number to Watch

35:36 - Final Takeaways and Signoff

Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Episode 010. Will the Bond Market End Humanity? Sep 25, 2026

Show notes

With the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 16-year highs at 5.20%, is this the return to historical normal—or the start of a market break?

Chapters

00:00 - Introduction & Market Overview

03:01 - Analyzing the Week's Bond Market Frenzy

07:09 - Shifts in FOMC Rate Expectations

08:27 - Economic Growth and Potential GDP

13:30 - Historical Context: 5,000 Years of Interest Rates

17:04 - Economic Resilience vs. Market Fears

18:38 - Drivers of Yields: Growth, Energy, Policy, and Deficits

23:03 - The Fed's Dilemma Heading into October

26:14 - Bond Math and Are Yields Near a Peak?

29:56 - Closing Question: Does the Fed Lead or Follow the Market?

Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Episode 009. Did the Fed Get it Right? Sep 18, 2026

Show notes

Kevin Warsh delivered the first hike in a few years as persistent inflation bites, was it the right move?

Chapters

00:00 – Introduction & FOMC Rate Hike Overview

02:38 – Rising Bond Yields & Financial Conditions

08:02 – Structural Inflation & the Post-Pandemic Economy

24:10 – The 12–0 Vote & Threats to Fed Independence

29:10 – Eliminating Forward Guidance & Outro

Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Episode 008. One Commodity Cycle or Many? Sep 11, 2026

Show notes

Commodities as an asset class are rarely homogenous. Today, prices are moving together, which either reflects a structural relationship or a set of unrelated drivers arriving at once.

Rate Cut Cycle Returns Table: https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/09/rate_cut_cycle_returns.png

Chapters

00:00 - Introduction & The Commodity Rally

02:25 - How Commodity Total Return is Calculated

06:02 - The Structural Case for "Easy Money"

13:03 - Supply Disruption Drivers in Energy Markets

16:46 - The "Sovereignty Premium" & Central Bank Gold Buying

23:28 - Debating the Multi-Factor Reality Behind Commodities

31:46 - Closing Question: How Should the Fed Respond to Structural Commodity Shocks?

Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Episode 007. Are Yields Good Enough To Compete? Sep 04, 2026

Show notes

A yield is only as good as what you compare it to, right now, rates aren't promising enough for investors to want in.

Chapters

00:00 - Introduction

01:46 - Determining the "Right" Level for Interest Rates

05:46 - Price-Sensitive vs. Price-Insensitive Treasury Buyers

12:00 - Comparing Treasuries to Alternatives

16:43 - Term Premium and the Market's Demand for Higher Yields

20:57 - The 4-5-6 Rule and Unrealistic Investor Expectations

24:28 - Will Foreign Central Banks and Price-Insensitive Buyers Return?

28:25 - Lightning Round: Will Bonds Win, or Will Everything Else Lose

32:24 - Outro and Conclusion

Episode 006. Can the Treasury Bully the Bond Market? Aug 28, 2026

Show notes

In a regime where financial conditions never tightened and liquidity never left, the Treasury could open its wallet the same week the Fed decides whether to hike. Is it a fool’s errand?

Chapters

00:00 - Introduction and Topic Overview

02:23 - Defining Financial Conditions vs. Liquidity

05:54 - Liquidity and the Fed's Balance Sheet

08:26 - The Role of the Treasury General Account (TGA)

12:48 - Market Liquidity and Inflation Fears

21:51 - Term Premium and Market Risk

24:41 - The "Liz Truss Moment" and Bond Vigilantes

32:26 - Outro

Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Episode 005. Is Bessent Helping? Aug 21, 2026

Show notes

The Treasury secretary is hoping to lower yields by increasing buybacks but the effectiveness of such tools has diminished in a high inflation era.

Chapters

00:00 - Teaser & Introduction

01:09 - The Treasury's Rough Week

03:13 - Opening the Toolbox: Fed vs. Treasury

08:00 - The TBAC and the Optimal Issuance Mix

11:39 - The Core Issue: Unchecked Inflation

20:43 - Washington's Reluctance to Fix the Deficit

29:12 - Closing Question: Warsh vs. Bessent

Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Episode 004. The State of the Labor Market Aug 14, 2026

Show notes

Shifting dynamics in the U.S. Labor Market have everyone from the Fed to recent graduates playing on their heels.

Chapters

00:00 - Introduction & Labor Market Equilibrium

03:30 - Demographics, Immigration, and Breakeven Rates

13:00 - Data Quality & Measuring Labor Market Speed Limits

17:55 - Youth Unemployment, Demographics, and Degree Selection

28:37 - AI's Real Impact on White-Collar Jobs & Education

33:34 - How the Definition of Work is Evolving

Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Episode 003. Valuations in An Earnings Explosion Aug 07, 2026

Show notes

Is the juice worth the squeeze? Earnings keep rising, valuations are questionable, and investors are uncertain. What should you make of earnings these days?

Chapters

00:00 - Hot Open & Intro

00:51 - Why Earnings Confuse

03:54 - The Anthropic Effect

07:10 - Include Other Income

09:36 - OpenAI Next Wave

12:32 - Valuations vs Earnings

18:05 - Data Sources Diverge

22:42 - Quant Models in Trouble

26:05 - Vendor Financing History

29:15 - CapEx & Bubble Risks

37:10 - Lightning Round Fed or Earnings

38:53 - Wrap Up & Subscribe

Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Episode 002. This Is Not Your Father's Fed Jul 31, 2026

Show notes

Two meetings have passed under Warsh and the pattern emerging is more reserved communication, some family infighting, and an uncertain market.

Chapters

00:00 - The Fed Put & Market Expectation

00:51 - Introduction & "Rational Dissent" Overview

01:22 - FOMC Meeting Recap & Warsh's Agenda

02:30 - Removing Forward Guidance: History & Impact

06:18 - The Risks and Moral Hazard of Forward Guidance

11:15 - Warsh's Vision: Independent Markets Check the Fed

13:36 - The Unintended Consequences of the Fed Put

15:38 - The "Good Family Fight": Dissents & Board Dynamics

18:18 - Historical Perspective on Fed Dissents (Volcker to Present)

25:34 - Reaction Function vs. Forward Guidance

30:30 - Lightning Round: Biggest Risks of Warsh’s Approach

33:41 - Closing Remarks & Wrap-Up

Charts Used:

https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/WarshNewsHeader.png
https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/10YrCuts.png
https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/30yryield.png

Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/

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