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[21] Regression or Bounce Back? Looking at the 2024-25 College Basketball Season Nov 18, 2024

This episode examines how college basketball programs experience and handle regression, exploring both historical patterns and current examples of teams navigating performance declines. Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth break down what separates programs that successfully bounce back from those that struggle to recover, while examining different strategies for mitigating regression's impact.

Segment 1: Understanding Regression

Hall of Fame coaches like Tom Izzo demonstrate that program success follows peaks and valleys rather than steady progression
Supporting players' statistical performance is significantly influenced by playing alongside All-American caliber teammates
Matt Painter's tenure at Purdue shows clear cycles of program building and regression
The "Baby Boilers" to "Johnson years" transition illustrates how roster turnover impacts program stability
Discussion of how coach evaluation timelines have shortened in the transfer portal era

Segment 2: Teams on Regression Watch

Analysis of Purdue's outlook after losing Zach Edey and the challenges of maintaining elite status
Tennessee's adaptation to losing Dalton Knecht and their defensive identity
Examination of Baylor's roster construction and recruiting approach
The impact of minutes continuity on program stability and performance
How conference strength affects a program's ability to manage regression

Segment 3: Bouncing Back

Comparison of Indiana and UCLA's different approaches to rebuilding through the transfer portal
Notre Dame's focus on high school recruiting under Micah Shrewsbury
Cincinnati's emergence under Wes Miller through balanced recruiting
The role of program resources and brand in determining rebuild strategy
How NIL and the transfer portal have changed the timeline for program turnarounds

For coaches, administrators, and invested fans, this episode provides context for understanding the cyclical nature of program success and offers insights into how modern programs can manage inevitable downturns. The discussion helps set realistic expectations while examining the various paths programs can take to maintain or regain competitive status.

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[20] NIL, Revenue Sharing And The (Not So) New Era of Compensated College Athletes Nov 05, 2024

Bob, Mike, and special guest Robie Malcomson discuss how opportunities for athletes to earn NIL and share revenue are transforming the competitive landscape in college basketball.

Segment 1: How Does This New Landscape Impact How We See “Amateur” Athletics?

Who were Jim Thorpe, Phil Dickens, Sam Gilbert and Curt Flood? Why Do They Matter Here?
Why Could We Add Ed O’Bannon To This Group? How Has His Case Paved The Way For Direct Compensation?
In The Era of Tik Tok Stars and Influencers: Is Anyone Really an Amateur?

Segment 2: What Are The Impacts Of Paid Players On Who Finds Success (and Who Doesn’t)?

What Pathways Have We Or Could We See For High Major/Mid Major/Low Major Schools?
How Have Other Related Yet Distinct Factors Also Have Impacted Teams and Programs?
Why Water May Find Its Level In The Coming Years Like It Has In Other Sports Models?

Segment 3 and Wrap Up: How Will The 2024-25 Season (and particularly IU’s Activity) Demonstrate Some Of This And What We’re Looking For?

Some relevant videos and articles:

Robie is host of the Trapped in History podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trapped-in-history/id1753424077

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[19] “Modern” Basketball: What Is It, Exactly? Oct 22, 2024

Bob and Mike open with some discussion about (what else?) IU football, as well as Hoosier Hysteria and some IU basketball recruiting.

Then it’s down to business for the main segment, which is dedicated to one of the most common buzzwords heard today when watching hoops: “modern” basketball.

What exactly does that term? And how are offensive and defensive systems evolving?

Segment 1: If Everyone Runs Motion and Plays Help Defense, Why Does It Look Different Than It Did?

What is a “good” shot? Getting Your Shot and Preventing The Other Guy From Getting Theirs
What It Was and What It’s Evolved Into? The Move From Passing to Dribble Penetration
How Do You Balance The Need For Freedom Against the Necessity of Structure?

Segment 2: Leads, Posts and Wings- How Changes In Player Skill and Athleticism Is The Leading Factor In What Teams Do.

What Does The Modern Player Look Like? (And Yes, They Are Built Better)
Why Team Chemistry Still Matters A Great Deal? Longevity + Culture= Winning
Davids and Goliaths: How To Mitigate Your Weaknesses Versus Your Opponent’s Strengths?

Segment 3 and Wrap Up: The World Is Flat: An Idea and Innovation Can Span The Globe The Next Day

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[18] Sports Fans' Biases: All Our Kids Are Above Average Oct 08, 2024

It’s October, the month of scares and frights. So what better time to dive into one of the most terrifying subjects in sports: the psyche of fans!

Specifically, Bob and Mike analyze fan biases and how they’re evolving. They also discuss the impact of these biases, and the expectations they create, on programs and coaches.

Segment 1: Why *Do* Fans See Their Program As “The Unicorn” in a Field of Plow Horses?

What Are Frequently Seen Fan Biases?
How Have Those Biases Played Out Over The Years?
How Are Biases Evolving?

Segment 2: How Do Biases Impact What A Program Does?

What Does Playing (Your School’s) Basketball Actually Mean?
Why Are These Players (Your School’s) Type of Player?
What Are Outcomes of “Divergences” Between Fans’ Biases and Programs’ Paths?

Segment 3 and Wrap Up: Why Do We (Mike and Bob) Do This To Ourselves In Our Personal Fandom?

In their next episode, Bob and Mike will discuss modern basketball and how both offensive and defensive systems are evolving.

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[17] The Football Show Sep 18, 2024

Bob and Mike take a little detour from their typical college basketball deep dives to discuss the most exciting current topic in Indiana sports: college football!

They share their own college football stories, look around the college football landscape, and discuss the encouraging beginning to the Curt Cignetti Era.

Two videos mentioned during their discussion:

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[16] Is the Blue-Blood Job Really Dead? Sep 03, 2024

Bob, Mike, and special guest Beau Haynes discuss the past, present, and future of the vaunted blue-blood head coaching job. How much have things really changed?

Segment 1: What Makes A Program’s Blood Blue?

Which program are at the top of the social register and how did they get there?
How do their fans and the program set expectations and maintain “standards?”
The search for the next Lama, Pop, or Godfather: why are blue-blood hires different?

Segment 2: Do These “Blue Blood” Designations Really Matter Anymore?

Why do prospective hires see offers they can refuse?
Do 18-year-old kids really know about the history of Chuck Taylor?
How have some programs broken into the country club locker room?

Segment 3 and Wrap Up

Does the modern landscape allow for true blue bloods anymore?

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[15] Transfer Portal Case Studies Aug 10, 2024

Bob and Mike look back at last season and trace some highs and lows from different teams that went heavy in the portal to build their rosters.

Segment 1: How The Portal Worked Well For Some

The Levels of Success In College Basketball (Chart 1)
South Carolina
North Carolina

Segment 2: How It Didn’t Go Well For Some Others

Reviewing The Chip Stack Theory
Washington
Missouri

Segment 3 and Wrap Up: Indiana’s Portal Haul

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[14] Knight Fall: Perspectives on the End of an Era Jul 25, 2024

Bob and Mike are joined by Galen Clavio to reflect on one of the most tumultuous times in the history of Indiana University sports: the final years of the Bob Knight.

Segment 1: The End of the Beginning to the Beginning of the End: Closing Out the Breaking Away Years

Plaid Jackets to Sweaters, NapTown Rising, and Cowboy Bob Riding Off -- Life in the Mid 80s
Moving Past The Brink -- Cracks in the Foundation and Facade
A New Sheriff Comes To Town -- Is The Town Big Enough For The Two Of Them

Segment 2: Paradise Lost

“We Need Players”- America’s New Public University Has An Obsolete Athletics Department
“Has The Game Passed Him By”- How Changes In The Game Impacted Mindsets
“Death By A Thousand Cuts”- The True Meaning of Zero Tolerance

Segment 3 and Wrap Up: Why This Still Matters?

Next up, in episode 15, Mike and Bob will be looking at some transfer portal case studies to determine how some teams found success and others found the floor last season.

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[13] College Basketball History: Does A School's Past Matter? Jul 12, 2024

On this edition of Xs & Joes, Bob and Mike discuss a topic of paramount importance to so many college sports programs across the country: history and legacy. How much does it actually matter for present-day winning?

Segment 1: How To Define Programs’ Legacies?

A Winning Tradition: Past Performance Does Not *Necessarily” Predict Future Results
A Program’s Mount Rushmore: The Images That Represent Who You Were And Are
Are You Cover or SI or Game Of The Week Worthy: The Changing Landscape of Media

Segment 2: Blue Bloods/New Bloods: Leveraging Your and/or Others’ Histories

How Some Traditional Powerhouses Have Reinvented Themselves
How Other Programs Have Broken Through- Temporary and Consistent Performers
Are We Down or Dilapidated- When Does A Program Become “Grey Gardens”

Segment 3 and Wrap Up: Traditions and Fight Songs

And Mike and Bob tease a special guest for episode 14: Galen Clavio!

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[12] College Basketball Freshmen: How Productive Should They Actually Be? Jun 27, 2024

On this edition of Xs & Joes, Bob and Mike record an episode they’ve been wanting to record for a while: a deep dive on freshman expectations.

Elite-level freshmen arrive on campus with high expectations, but at what level of fairness to them? How much is reasonable to expect from a freshman?

That’s the main topic this week.

Bob and Mike open with discussion about their summer travels, Tony’s book, Austin Render’s new BHN podcast The Dribble Drive.

And, of course, they discuss Homefield’s Sweet Summer Seven Subscription Box.

Segment 1: Help Is On The Way: What Are Expectations Placed on First Year Players?

• What Do Coaches Expect? (Slides 1-4)

• How Does That Match Up To Players’ Views On Their Roles?

• Should Fans Be More Realistic In Their Expectations?

Segment 2 Crossing The Sinai Desert: How To Judge A Freshman’s Contributions?

• What Does A High Level Freshman Performance Look Like?

• What Does A “Failed” Freshman Year Look Like?

• What Is A Good Baseline Of Expectation?

Segment 3: The Future of Freshmen

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[11] Hoosiers: It's Not a Documentary Jun 04, 2024

On this edition of Xs & Joes, Bob and Mike step back into their wheelhouse: busting myths … or in this episode’s case, maybe killing sacred cows?

They open with a wistful goodbye to the Irish Lion and discuss everyone’s most beloved collegiate apparel company.

Then it’s time for a frank discussion about the film that helped cement Indiana’s reputation as the basketball state in the minds of so many.

Segment One dives into the real story that inspired Hoosiers: the Milan Miracle.

What really happened in 1954?
How did the timing of Hoosiers’ release impact its cultural significance?
Why it is still such a great and relevant movie

Segment Two then dives into the misguided mythos of Hoosiers.

Native Indiana players always have a reputation for punching above their weight
Personal fan preferences are superior to proven methods by winning programs
Teams should win more with less talent

Bob and Mike close with a discussion about the recently deceased Tates Locke, who had a strong Bob Knight connection, and another Indiana-based basketball movie.

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[10] Data Driven Basketball Coaching and Talent Evaluation with Tony Adragna May 15, 2024

On this edition of Xs & Joes, Bob and Mike welcome Coach Adragna to the show.

They open with a discussion about how they all met and discuss Tony’s background as a coach. This includes discussion of how Tony proposed to his wife, which any IU fan will be able to appreciate.

Then they turn their attention to the strange marriage between coaching and analytics. How should analytics be used to analyze and improve a team’s performance? How are they actually used? How could they be used better?

Then they dive into Indiana’s incoming transfers and what IU fans should expect from the revamped roster.

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[09] Transfer Portal: The Tip of the Iceberg Apr 30, 2024

On this edition of Xs & Joes, Bob and Mike turn their attention to the transfer portal. They discuss some misconceptions and myths, how it’s impacting the Sweet Spot, what we’re learning about the best way to balance portal recruiting and high school recruiting, and much more.

Segment 1: Why Would a Kid Want to Leave “My School”?

Misconceptions and Myths- Things Aren’t Always What They Appear To Be
Current State of The Portal in Summer 2024- Overviews of Where Things Are
Applying Metrics to Players To Estimate Impact- We’re Going to Talk BPM (Slides 1-2)
And more.

Segment 2: What are some of the early findings with the Portal?

How is The Portal impacting the “Sweet Spot”? (Slides 3-4)
When is The Portal a proactive choice or a reactive decision? (Slide 5)
What is the best path for an incoming coach? (Slide 5)

Segment 3 and Wrap Up

Summer Deeper Digs: How Can You Help?
Plus, More Fun Stuff Coming…

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[08] You Take the Wheel: Ask Us Anything Apr 12, 2024

On this edition of Xs & Joes, Bob and Mike turn the topics over to the listeners. We gathered a bunch of questions in Substack and Discord, and they go deep on the answers.

Among the questions and topics discussed:

Mike explains his scoring system for individual players
Does Indiana need a full rebuild?
Are IU fans delusional in the expectation that IU will ever achieve relevancy within the conference, let alone nationally?
Who would be your ideal 6 players for IU to add to next year’s team?
The widespread utilization of outside consulting groups/3-party vendors across college basketball
What is your guys’ demeanor as you watch IU games?
What happened to NIL being about repping local businesses or getting a portion of merch sales?
Is Mike's expertise used professionally (reimbursement) by teams, leagues, coaches, ADs etc., etc. at either collegiate or professional level and in what way?
What are the effects on IU, both negative and “positive,” with Purdue making a run to the Final Four for the first time in 44 years?
In the top performing teams, are there any clear trends with regard to positional size leading to more wins?
And … what is the greatest decade for rock and why is Mike wrong saying it's not the 70's?

And more.

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[07] The March To March Madness: Well, We Didn't See That Coming (And Some Things We Did) Mar 28, 2024

On this edition of Xs and Joes, Bob and Mike take a look back at the current college basketball season that is nearing its conclusion and analyze some interesting trends and teams that were better/worse than expected. Plus … some IU talk.

In this episode …

Segment 1: How was the game played? Some subtle trends that kinda surprised us…

Death of a Controversy- Impact of the Block/Charge Rule
The Ball Screen Revolution Has Been Televised (Charts 1 and 2)
A Tale of Two Portals- Knecht vs Timberlake

Segment 2: Team X Shouldn’t Have Been That Good/Bad (or Made That Move)

1) These Teams Were Better Than We (Or One Of Us) Thought They’d Be
2) These Teams Were Worse Than We (Or One Of Us) Thought They’d Be
3) Early Coaching Exits…The Demise of The Class of 2017

Segment 3 and Wrap Up: Indiana: Guess We Should Talk About It

Note: The next episode of Xs and Joes will be an AMA (Ask Me Anything) episode. Stay tuned for details on how to submit questions for that episode.

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[06] How Top Programs Evaluate and Acquire Winning Personnel (with special guest Sam Story) Feb 29, 2024

On this special edition of Xs and Joes, Bob and Mike welcome longtime Indiana fan, coach, referee, and all-around good dude Sam Story (CoachSS) to the show.

The three longtime friends and college hoops fans engage in a deep dive on how winning college basketball programs evaluate, determine, and land the players and coaches who are best for them.

In this episode …

Segment 1: What traits are college coaches and recruiting evaluators looking at with prospective players? What information should fans look at as legitimate versus noise?
Segment 2: What are the stages and levels of recruiting? How does it translate to other positions like coaching and program/department administration?
Segment 3: How does a program’s overall performance, resources, image and style impact who and how they recruit? (We might just talk about IU here)
Wrap Up: The confluence of Quantity Theory of Money and the free movement of human assets in an unregulated marketplace: What the world looks like with the transfer portal, NIL and the retrenchment of the NCAA.

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[05] Rivalry Essentials: Unpacking the Crucial Role That Rivalries Play in How We Experience College Sports Feb 16, 2024

In Episode 5, Mike and Bob take a deep dive into rivalries and the many critical roles they play in the college sports ecosystem -- not just for fans, but for coaches and administrators too.

In this episode …

Segment 1: One, Two, Three, Four … wait, what are we fighting for?

Why are there no moral absolutes in the souls of fans?
What are rivalries and how do they happen?
Why do we see prestige as a “zero sum” game?

Segment 2: The Constant Battle of Keeping Ahead (or Up With) The Joneses

How does the performance of a rival drive our greatest fears or confirm our greatest hopes?
When does a rival push a program to make substantive changes?
Why are rivals, oftentimes, polar opposites of one another in their style?

Segment 3: Telling what we truly think: What are Mike’s and Bob’s deep feelings and thoughts on rivals?

Purdue
Kentucky
Why is this healthy? We hope…

Wrap-Up: How could and have changes in conferences and throughout athletics impact functional rivalries and why these matchups need special consideration?

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[04] Discovering The Sweet Spot: How a National Championship Winning Trend Was Exposed Feb 01, 2024

In Episode 4 of Xs and Joes, Mike Wiemuth (iu-in-philly) and Bob Moats (cbobmoats) tell the origin story of The Sweet Spot™ -- what it is, how it came about, and what it means for hanging banners.

In this episode ...

Segment 1: How Two Frequent Title Winners Tried Change The Game?

Get Dudes and Win- The Blended Recruiting Tracks to Titles (Slides 1 and 2)
The Calipari Doctrine: Talent Over Experience Every Time (Slide 3)
Coach K Becomes a Disciple of the OAD Strategy (Slide 3)

Segment 2: What Did Blended Tracks Look Like During the OAD Transition?

Butler, VCU, and Wichita State- Mid Major Breakthroughs
Purdue- The Baby Boilers, Effective Players, then a Quest for Higher Level Talent
Indiana- A Total Rebuild, A Movement and A Rapid Decline

Segment 3: What Were The Consequences of The Heavy OAD Teams?

2016 and 2017- How Villanova and UNC were different (Slide 4)
Two Tracks and the Baby Blue Utopian Spot
The Sweet Spot of The Highest Level of Talented Players Staying For Multiple Years (Slides 5-10)

Epilogue: Dean Wormer Talks with Cal and Coach K (Slide 11)

Get the slides here: https://www.assemblycall.com/p/xj4

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[03] Roster Construction: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Jan 18, 2024

In Episode 3 of Xs and Joes, Mike Wiemuth (iu-in-philly) and Bob Moats (cbobmoats) dive into what makes for good roster construction and analyze a few of this season's rosters from across the country.

In this episode …

Segment 1: A High Performing Roster: A simple yet very difficult thing to do.

1) Follow the Shoe/Follow the Gourd: How do we, oftentimes, miss the point of Rankin/Bass by thinking that “misfits” have clear, binary paths?

2) The Sweet Spot Performance Curve: Why are OADs better than most other freshmen but are, usually, not as good as Sweet Spot Upperclassmen? (Charts)

3) The only thing that matters…is it working? Can the Good, the Bad and the Ugly basically be the same thing?

Segment 2: Model Rosters: Who they are and how are they performing

1) UConn: Could they be the last to “do it this way”? What the model program actually looks like. (Team Sheets)

2) Kentucky: Is this your dad’s UK team? How shooting has changed some things in Lexington.

3) Michigan State: Can you blame players for “effort” or is there shared responsibility here? The parts can be greater than the sum.

Segment 3: Misfit Rosters: What are they trying to do and how are they doing it?

1) Purdue: Can a true system-scoring-based team actually achieve at the highest level? Just how much can you exponentially increase the sum of the parts.

2) Houston: Will they continue to stifle in the toughest conference in D1? Small ball and lockdown faces a great overall test.

3) Indiana: Do they have what it takes to get somewhere? Is the gun loaded or do they need a shovel?

Segment 4: Results

You will not win a National Title, a Conference Title or even gain a tournament berth in the first half of the season, but you certainly can lose one. Where do you need to be at the end?

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[02] Coaching Tenures: Chip Stacks and Honeymoons (Win First or Recruit First?) Jan 02, 2024

In Episode 2 of Xs and Joes, Mike Wiemuth (iu-in-philly) and Bob Moats (cbobmoats) dive into what really creates momentum -- and possibly even stability -- for new coaches.

As usual, when you take a peek under the hood, the factors lead that lead to success or failure may not quite be what you assume.

In this episode …

Segment One: There are very few happy endings for college coaches

How do Mob Movies (Godfather and Scorsese Trilogy) help explain eventual outcomes for college coaches?
Job Stability in Coaching: An Oxymoron (Chart)
Convening the College of the Cardinals and Getting to White Smoke: Crean to Woodson

Segment Two: The Honeymoon Phase- What Are Danger Signs A Program May Need A Divorce Lawyer Sooner Rather Than Later?

Getting The Right Pieces In Place- Assistant Coaches and the First Three Classes
Get Kids Then Win Over Fans- What Role Does Style of Play Play
Can Early Winning Cause Problems Later On?

Segment Three: Your Chipstack- What does your stake look like?

All Programs Are Not Created Equally- Some Places Are Higher Risk/Higher Reward
Whiffs and Losses- Keeping Fans Engaged During The Transition
The Payoff aka The Extension Season- What Does It Look Like?

Segment Four: The Crown Lies Uneasy on the Heads of Mob Bosses and College Coaches: If You Think Getting To The Top Was Tough…Try Staying There

To view the visuals used in this episode, click here to download the PDF. (Images arranged in order of how they are displayed and discussed in the episode.)

URL: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jtVnG5B6O4xINOkNTTX9Q8YM4m8lJr5H/view?usp=sharing

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[01] Dudes with Acuity or a Disciplined Approach? Which Matters More? Dec 20, 2023

In Episode 1 of Xs and Joes, Mike and Bob provide the backstory on their decades-long research project and conversation trying to identify what it takes to build a winner in college basketball. Then they jump right into exploring one of the Big Questions they've been wrestling with since 1996.

Here's the outline for the episode:

Segment One: The Conversation at 7th and Washington that launched the primary question.

1) Dec. 7th, 1996...A Date That Lives In Infamy.

2) Comparing the two teams

3) The Initial Findings: Talent does matter, and IU was quite talented in their heyday

Segment Two: The Hoosiers Mythos: The movie is not a documentary.

1) Mike's Process: How Excel aggregated the paradigm?

2) Elements of Winning Programs: Two Good Examples and Butler.

3) "Convincing" the Barbershop

Segment Three: Is talent enough?

1) 2015: Wisconsin Saves the 1976 Legacy

2) The Tobacco Road Scrolls: Dean Smith on System vs Flexible Coaching

3) What this means for IU right now? Can Woodson get "buy in"?

Segment Four: 1996-97 Season Epilogue

1) A Trip to Tobacco Road, A Disaster, and An Open Practice: recognizing just how special the sauce has to be.

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Welcome to X's and Joe's Dec 08, 2023

In this short trailer, you'll get a taste for what X's and Joe's, hosted by Mike Wiemuth (iu-in-philly) and Bob Moats (cbobmoats), is all about.

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