WSJ's Take On the Week - TopPodcast.com

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What the Jobs Report and Consumer Spending Tell Us About the Economy Dec 03, 2023

Show notes

This week, we’re turning our attention to the jobs report. The Labor Department is expected to release their monthly jobs report this Friday. The report is arriving at a crucial time as recession concerns still loom for many investors and consumers. According to last month’s consumer confidence index, released by The Conference Board, a business research organization that oversees the monthly confidence survey, around two-thirds of consumers said a recession was “somewhat” or “very likely” in the next 12 months. We're chatting with Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, about why consumers and investors are a bit unnerved right now and what that tells us about the economy and markets. To take the conversation even further, we’re then talking to Heather Boushey, a member of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors. Heather joins us to share how the Biden administration is handling low confidence levels and slowing job gains. Plus, we get a temperature check on the status of Covid-19 vaccine makers, Moderna and Pfizer. Both companies have had significant stock losses since their highs in 2021. How does that affect the overall health of the pharmaceutical and drug sectors and how do drugs that aid weight loss, like Ozempic, factor into all of this? Jared Hopkins, a WSJ reporter covering healthcare and pharmaceuticals, joins us to explain.

Further Reading

Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not

For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com.

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What Third-Quarter Earnings Tell Us About What’s Next for Markets Nov 26, 2023

Show notes

About 95% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported third-quarter earnings. So this week, we’re having a roundtable conversation to discuss what we learned from the latest quarter and what the earnings reports tell us about where the market is and where it’s heading. WSJ’s Heard on the Street editor Spencer Jakab and reporter Justin Lahart join us to explore those ideas and more. Then, we’re turning our attention to Dubai where the 28th annual United Nations Conference of the Parties, or COP 28, is kicking off this Thursday. The conference is all about governments coming together to agree on policies to address climate change. WSJ climate finance reporter Amrith Ramkumar explains why this year's conference is welcoming oil giants like Exxon Mobil and Chevron, and why you could see some big market moves for the next two weeks.

We want to know what you’ve been wondering about the economy, companies, stocks, bonds, or markets in general. Send us a note or a voice-memo recording to takeontheweek@wsj.com or leave a voicemail at (212) 416-3489.

Further Reading

Breaking Down the Best Earnings Quarter in a Year

Big Oil Producer Lines Up African Carbon Deals Ahead of Climate Talks

Nations Keep Upping Fossil-Fuel Production Despite Climate Pledge

For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com.

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Why Consumers Are Buying Flights Instead of Gifts This Holiday Season Nov 19, 2023

Show notes

This week is Black Friday, which means it’s the unofficial kickoff of the holiday shopping season. The big question many economists want to know is will consumer spending be strong? WSJ retail reporter Sarah Nassauer joins us as we look ahead to earnings reports this week from retailers, like Best Buy and Dick’s Sporting Goods, to find out if the holiday spirit is enough to boost sales. Then, we’re turning our attention to artificial intelligence. Nvidia, the technology company known for designing and manufacturing computer graphic chips, is expected to report earnings this week. After the AI boom helped fuel gains for the company, investors are looking to see what recent U.S. restrictions limiting exports to China will mean for the company and its stock. Brenda Vingiello, the chief investment officer of Silicon Valley-based Sand Hill Global Advisors, joins us to explain what investors should be looking for in Nvidia’s earnings report. Lastly, we’re queuing up for holiday travel. With a record number of consumers expected to travel in the next six months, we’re checking in with WSJ’s travel reporter, Jacob Passy, to find out if this sky-high travel is reaching a descent anytime soon.

Further Reading

Five Economic Signs You’re Smart to Procrastinate on Holiday Shopping This Year

Nvidia’s $5 Billion of China Orders in Limbo After Latest U.S. Curbs

For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com.

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Taking the Measure of Consumer Spending at Home Depot Nov 12, 2023

Show notes

This week, we're grabbing our toolboxes and heading to Home Depot. The home improvement retailer is expected to report earnings on Tuesday. Jinjoo Lee, who covers big retailers for The Wall Street Journal’s Heard on the Street column, joins guest host Telis Demos to talk about how the housing market, consumer spending and supply chains all play an integral role in Home Depot’s success. We’re also turning our attention to two upcoming reports on inflation to take a deeper look at what they mean for corporate profits. Nick Colas, co-founder of market analysis services company DataTrek Research, joins us to talk about how the potential of slowing inflation can affect a company's spending and earnings. Plus, we’ve also got expected earnings from Target and Walmart this week. We'll examine what their different stock journeys tell us about the American consumer.

Further Reading

U.S. Home Prices Rose to Record in August

How Slowing Inflation Can Hit Corporate Profits

For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com.

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Why Mohamed El-Erian Is Worried About a 2024 Recession Nov 08, 2023

Show notes

Mohamed El-Erian is one of the world’s most respected economists and he has growing concerns about a recession in 2024. El-Erian previously served as the chief executive and chief investment officer at financial services company Pimco, and now is the chief economic advisor at Pimco’s parent company, Allianz, one of the world’s largest insurance and financial services firms. He is also the president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge. In this special episode of WSJ's Take On the Week, El-Erian discusses the policy mistakes he says the Federal Reserve has made and why he's hopeful about potential solutions that could keep the economy robust and resilient.

Further Reading

The Improbably Strong Economy

Fed Takes Heart in a Supply-Side Boom

The Economy Was Supposed to Slow by Now. Instead It’s Revving Up.

For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com.

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Snap, Crackle, Drop. What Kellogg's Split Says About the Snack Business. Nov 05, 2023

Show notes

This week, we’re turning our attention to breakfast cereals and snacks. Kellogg, the company responsible for cereals like Frosted Flakes and snacks like Pringles, in early October split into two companies: WK Kellogg and Kellanova. WK Kellogg maintained the company’s cereal products, while Kellanova kept snacks. Snacks have been big business for companies, but with changes to eating habits brought on by obesity drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro, these companies may face some struggles ahead. WK Kellogg and Kellanova are expected to report earnings this week, so we’re speaking with Pamela Kaufman, a Morgan Stanley equity analyst who covers the packaged goods industry, to find out if the separation of the snacks and cereal businesses will prove to be a winning combination and what reduced appetites may mean for investors. Then, we’re queuing up for Disney’s earnings report. Merriment has gotten significantly more expensive with costs for admission to places like Disney’s theme parks rising faster than prices for food and gasoline. What will this week’s earnings from Disney tell us about the cost of having fun? Robbie Whelan, who covers Disney for WSJ, joins us to discuss how Disney’s higher-than-ever amusement park prices and declining television business will affect the company’s bottom line. Lastly, we’re looking at China’s upcoming consumer and producer price index reports to learn how a slowed economy in China impacts investors here in the states.

Further Reading

America Is Binging on Snacks, and Food Companies Are Eating It Up

The Ozempic Craze Could Put These Companies on a Crash Diet

Ozempic: How the Diabetes Drug Works and Why It’s Such a Big Deal for Weight Loss

It’s Getting Too Expensive to Have Fun

Disney Raises Prices at Its Theme Parks

Disney Sheds New Light on ESPN’s Financial Challenges

For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com.

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Looking Ahead to This Week’s Fed Meeting and the Future of Crypto Oct 29, 2023

Show notes

This week, we’re opening up our digital wallets and examining the current state of crypto. Wall Street hasn’t been talking much about crypto this year, and that silence has been golden for digital assets. The price of bitcoin has jumped by more than 100% year to date. Cryptocurrency exchange platform, Coinbase, is expected to report earnings this week so we’re chatting with Jeff Dorman, the chief investment officer of Arca, a crypto-focused asset manager, to find out why he thinks crypto will still come out on top despite bankruptcies, money laundering risks, and alleged fraud. It’s also Fed week. Members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee have been hard at work in recent weeks, making the case that moves in financial markets have done some of the Fed’s work for them, by tightening financial conditions. WSJ reporters Gunjan Banerji and Harriet Torry join us for a roundtable discussion on whether we should be expecting one final rate hike before the year’s end and how that could affect the market and investment portfolios. We wrap up with Starbucks. The popular coffee chain is also reporting earnings this week and we’ll be looking to see what their new CEO Laxman Narasihmhan has to share with investors about the health of retail, food service and U.S. consumers.

Further Reading

U.S. Targets Crypto Mixers Over Money Laundering Risks

Crypto Lender Genesis Prepares to Liquidate Without Deal With Parent Company

Sam Bankman-Fried to Take the Stand in Fraud Trial

The Fed Is Putting Too Much Faith in Markets

For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com.

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From Recession Fears to Too Good? What This Week’s GDP Data Will Tell Us Oct 22, 2023

Show notes

This week, we're looking ahead to the GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 to find out how much the American economy grew from July to September. Thanks to higher than expected numbers from the latest retail sales and jobs reports, economists have lowered the probability of a recession occurring next year to below 50 percent, the lowest it's been since summer 2022. With recession worries now taking a back seat, attention has shifted to the economy’s surprising growth and why it just might be too good to be true. KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk joins us to talk about that and what investors need to look for in this week’s GDP report. Then, we're talking Visa ahead of its expected earnings. WSJ reporter Angel Au-Yeung is here to explore how changes in the credit card fees charged to merchants could change how Visa and Mastercard do business, and what you pay at the store. We wrap things up getting Meta in Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse to see what the company’s expected earnings report this week could tell us about Meta’s social media platform Threads and whether it’s giving Elon Musk’s X (formerly Twitter) a run for its money.

Further Reading

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Resilient U.S. Economy Defies Expectations

Visa, Mastercard Prepare to Raise Credit-Card Fees

For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com.

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A Key Fed Official on What’s Next for Interest Rate Hikes Oct 15, 2023

Show notes

This week, we’re looking at what the Federal Reserve is watching as it plots the course of interest rate hikes. In their most recent meeting, last month, minutes revealed that a majority of Fed members say one more rate hike would be appropriate. We’re two weeks away from the next Fed meeting, and investors are paying close attention as the decisions made will play a significant role on consumer spending and banks’ deposits. Mary Daly, the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, joins us with her take on where the economy stands, and what people are telling her about their personal economic outlooks. With stalled progress in slowing inflation revealed in September’s consumer-price index report, the road to two percent may take longer than investors would like. Plus, we’re looking ahead to earnings reports coming this week from Goldman Sachs, Netflix, and Johnson & Johnson. Michael Farr, CEO of investment advisory firm Farr, Miller, & Washington, tells us why those are the companies he’ll have his eye on this week and what their earnings reports can tell investors about how consumers are spending their money.

Further Reading

Fed Minutes Show Officials Divided on Future Rate Rise

How Banks’ Deposit Pressures Could Get Worse, in Three Charts

Why Consumers Are Mad About Inflation Even Though It Has Fallen

This Inflation Report Won’t Let the Fed Declare Victory

For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com.

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Big Banks, Big Yield and a Big Release for Taylor Swift Oct 08, 2023

Show notes

This week, we have banking and the recent rise in government bond yields in focus. Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, tells us that the run-up in bond yields means the need for another interest rate hike is “diminished.” But with the September jobs report showing job growth remaining stronger than expected, and the Fed seemingly committed to keep interest rates high, what could that mean for three of the biggest banks, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, who are set to report earnings this week? And what could it mean for how they handle our money? Then, we’re flying into Delta’s earnings report, also expected this week, with analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu, who covers the stock for the investment bank Jefferies. How is Delta navigating through the rough skies of high fuel and maintenance costs and the recent controversial changes to its Skymiles program, and what does that say about the state of travel and consumer spending? Plus, we’re looking ahead to this week’s release of the new Taylor Swift “Eras Tour” concert movie. The movie industry has problems. Could the record-breaking artist’s film – and a deal to distribute Beyonce’s Renaissance concert movie too – help solve them, and provide AMC shareholders with a blockbuster profit?