Stay ConnectedWDF examines how wars broke out, how they were concluded, and their consequences. Expect juicy diplomacy, sneaky intrigue, fascinating characters, and incredible drama. By Dr Zack Twamley, qualified history nerd.
Current Series: The July Crisis
Patreon Series: The Age of Bismarck
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With the blank cheque secured, Austria had received its ally's blessing to pursue a punitive strike against Serbia - what would happen next?
The morass of questions surrounding this development deserve greater examination, but you may be wondering, just how widespread was the pro-war party in Vienna? How many officials believed that only war with Serbia could fix the Empire's chronic problems, and why did they take this position considering the risks involved? In this episode we are introduced to a memorandum published on 6 July by Berthold Molden, a senior Habsburg author, philosopher and politician in the Austrian press office. If you've ever wanted to hear from an official contemporary source outside of the traditional coterie of conspirators, which historians have paid scant attention to in the past, then this episode is for you. Expect fascinating insights into Austria's psyche, damning indictments of Austria's position, and heavy condemnation of Serbia, Russia, and any other power who stood in Austria's way.
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Among all the controversies of the July Crisis, perhaps few compare to Germany's decision to provide Austria-Hungary with a 'blank cheque' for whatever policy it intended to adopt towards Serbia. In fact, word from Berlin suggested that the German government was impatient, and wanted Austria to strike Serbia as soon as possible. But, did this represent a German desire to launch a world war? As we see in this episode, the truth is more nuanced, but no less shocking. Germany was not seeking world war, but to repair the damage done to its ally by destroying the incessant Serbian threat once and for all.
But how would Vienna do this? Would she annex Serbia, or parts of it? Would she reduce her sufficiently to reorientate Serbian policy away from irredentist expansion in Bosnia? What divisions manifested themselves in Austria even as she strove desperately to recoup her position? More importantly, in the event of war between Austria and Serbia, could Russia reasonably be expected to stand aside? Incredibly, the status of Russia was not given nearly enough attention, but this was a sign of things to come, as the Habsburg grievance machine rumbled steadily onwards...
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Now that Vienna had decided to use war against its Serbian neighbour, the mission became one of guaranteeing German support. As we discuss in this episode, in Austria's estimation it was far from certain that Berlin would give this support. The record of diplomatic crises and cooperation in recent years suggested that Germany might even try to contain Austria's response, and prevent it acquiring the satisfaction it needed.
To confront this dilemma, Austrian Foreign Minister Count Berchtold rallied his colleagues around him, and plotted to confront the Kaiser once Franz Ferdinand's funeral took place. Unfortunately for him, the Kaiser was not coming. Vienna was too unsafe, it was said in private, and Germany would not risk its Emperor if the Serbs struck again. Such an embarrassing turn of events forced Berchtold to consider plan B. If Germany would not come to him, he would send his best men to Germany instead...
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With the shots heard round the world, how would Austro-Hungarian statesmen react to the news that the heir to their throne had been murdered in Sarajevo? In fact, as we see here, Austrian patience towards Serbia had been so exhausted by 1914 that a violent, warlike response was virtually inevitable. At least, Habsburg Foreign Minister Count Berchtold thought so. But what about the Hungarian element in the room?
Since the Compomise of 1867, Austria and Hungary had essentially become two cooperating entities, rather than an Austrian whole, so Hungarian approval from the Hungarian Premier would be necessary if any military policy was pursued. Berchtold would have to use all his skills of persuasion, but he would also call upon Emperor Franz Josef, and above all the Germans, to add greater pressure. Could he succeed? Austria's existence, Berchtold believed, hung in the balance.
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On 28 June 1914, Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian Serb terrorist.
What followed was the July Crisis, as Austria-Hungary attempted to gain a measure of justice, or even revenge. No story of the July Crisis is complete without beginning here, but considering its infamy, what is there left to learn about this assassination and all that flowed from it? I would like to humbly invite you to join me, as I investigate how the act was carried out, what other assassination attempts in Sarajevo meant, why Franz Ferdinand's unique circumstances made the atrocity possible, and why the Austrians really should have seen it all coming...
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In this teeny tiny episode, we look at the Italian invasion of Libya and the Balkans Wars!
But first, get a load of these links!
How do you kill the status quo? By forming a league of extraordinary states, who want nothing less than to destroy the empire which has ruled over them for centuries. When the Balkan War began in October 1912, Europe was far from ready for the implications which would follow. The end of Turkish rule in Europe, and the expansion of young nation states eager to prove themselves appeared to guarantee that the peninsula would never be quiet again. Yet, aside from Europe, Russia had played a key role in bringing this league to life. To this, we may be tempted to ask why?
The answer is found in the Austro-Russian rivalry, but also in the opportunistic mood of the moment. The Balkan League's members - Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Serbia - were not traditional allies. Yet they were certainly capable of smelling blood in the water. In September 1911, Italy invaded Libya, and instigated a year-long war with the Ottoman Empire. Watching their overlord struggle with such a wide-ranging campaign, the Balkan League seized the moment, and attacked just as Italy met the Turks at the peace table.
What followed was the shocking disintegration of Turkish power in Europe, at a scale and speed no one expected. Yet, even though the League had won the day, the spoils proved harder to divide up among them. Hostility increased between Serbia and Bulgaria over the fate of Macedonia, and when a second war came, the ensuing dogpile by the Ottomans, Serbs, Greeks and Romanians shattered Bulgaria apparently for good.
By autumn 1913, a different question thus emerged. If the Balkan states were justified in throwing off the Ottoman yolk and expanding their powers, just how much expansion was too much? In Vienna's view, the Serbian threat had become intolerable. The only solution was to threaten her with ruin, and prevent Serbian occupation of Albania, including an Adriatic port. Germany stood behind her, Russia backed down, but this was the last such victory of the Central Powers.
In this episode we weigh up the impact of these pre-war conflicts, with a depth and obsession for nerdy details you've never seen before! Join me as I attempt to navigate such a turbulent world, where old assumptions were slain, traditional rivalries were reinforced, and a new order beckoned.
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In our second background episode, we cover the Bosnian Annexation Crisis from 1908-1909!
But first, get a load of these links!
From late 1908 to spring 1909, European attentions were intensely occupied by the Austrian decision to annex the province of Bosnia Herzegovina, which it had occupied since 1878. This decision spurred into life fascinating impressions and behaviours which became even more important in 1914. Russia was humiliated, Serbia was enraged, Austria learned the value of an ultimatum, and Germany stood resolutely by its ally. Meanwhile, the British and French looked on, concerned that the Balkans might activate the war they had been secretly preparing for behind closed doors. The annexation is thus a key point on our journey towards the war, so I hope you're ready to get into it!
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In our first background episode, we look at the formation of the Triple Alliance and Triple Entente.
But first, get a load of these links!
By 1890, the new German Kaiser Wilhelm II officially 'dropped the pilot', and assumed the powers of German foreign policy into his own hands. Within a few years, Russia had slipped from his grasp into the eager arms of France. The Second Holy Alliance of Bismarck's days was over, henceforth Europe would be dominated by two distinct power blocs.
As we will see in this episode, the reality behind the firm front each bloc put up was far from representative of the truth. Disputes existed, from colonial spheres to military conventions, to old antagonisms and new plots. How reliable was the Italian element? Could the Germans and Russians reach across the divide, and forge a new path independent of these barriers? And, what to do with those powers outside these groups?
The first of these was Britain, whose status as an isolated power living her best life was about to come to a screeching halt. Interestingly, the power Britain elected to ally with, to announce its return to the Concert of Europe, was a rising power in Asia, Japan. Even more interestingly, Japan was to play a pivotal role upending the apple cart of several decades of assumptions - foremost among them, the insurmountable power of Russia.
Russia's loss in the war with Japan, official by October 1905, shattered the existing balance of power. Into this dynamic situation, Britain drew closer to France, and further from a German partnership which had seemed the most likely outcome. By 1907, Britain went still further, embarking on a brave new course by looking at Russia as something of a friend. If not a friend, then at least a partner.
The closer alignment of Britain, Russia and France into a Triple Entente, however, was little more than a French dream at this stage. It was impossible to plan ahead when those wretched Balkans never seemed to stay quiet...
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How do historians explain the outbreak of the First World War, and how have these views changed over the last century? Were they influenced by new perspectives, new motives, or new source materials? How have they influenced our current understanding of the war's origins, and what impact have they had on the 'mainstream' view of why war broke out? In this episode we go on a journey through the historical record, where new theories and explanations emerged, in the teeth of contentious debate.
For some, the pursuit of truth was a matter of justice - finding significance in the loss. For others, it was a political necessity, to rehabilitate their nation. For others still, it was a mere matter of historical study - the need to find the truth, and be the first person to do so. Whatever the motives - whatever the results - the story behind how historians reached their conclusions, and how these conclusions changed, represents one of the most fascinating and important aspects of the First World War's origins story, and I can't wait to share it with you!
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Welcome history friend, to this exciting new series!
110 years to the day since Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo, and a decade on from our July Crisis Anniversary Project, I believe there has never been a better time to jump back into this world. This is a brand new series, and I have been working on it for some time now.
In this episode, we set some things straight. This is not a remaster, a re-release, or any form of recycling. Oh no, we're here for something far more special. Armed with my new expertise, far too many sources to count, and a renewed passion for this pivotal era, we are ready to bring you the July Crisis like you've never seen it before!
If our July Crisis Anniversary Project was a rigorously scheduled day-by-day account of the last few weeks of peace in 1914, this series is a different beast. Content is our focus this time around - deep dives, fascinating studies, and a more comprehensive analysis of the how and the why behind the descent into war in summer 1914.
If you're at all curious about how the First World War erupted; if you've never listened to the July Crisis Anniversary Project - and especially if you have - this series is for you! Please join me over the next few months, in this post-PhD gift to myself, as we bring this complicated, fascinating, tragic world to life, 110 years after it all fell to pieces.
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