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Wharton Moneyball — Sports & Recreation
Wharton Moneyball

Sports is a game of numbers. Wharton experts Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, Cade Massey, and Adi Wyner team up to tackle the world of sports, from current events to longstanding issues such as: What sports streaks are the most impressive? How do you rank the best players? Can athletes be compared across sports? Moneyball explains how decision-makers in the game can avoid the common mistakes and embrace the data. Episodes are recorded at the Wharton School.

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Latest Episodes:

NBA Analytics, Tanking, and the Future of Team Building Feb 18, 2026

Show notes

Ben Alamar—former NBA analytics executive with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers, and author of Sports Analytics: A Guide for Coaches, Managers, and Other Decision Makers—joins Wharton Moneyball to break down emerging NBA storylines, the unintended consequences of draft lottery reform, bold alternatives to tanking, and the case for analytics trailblazer Dean Oliver’s induction into the Basketball Hall of Fame. Cade, Eric, and Adi also explore statistical evidence of Olympic figure skating bias, debate event proliferation in skiing and speed skating, unpack the Los Angeles Lakers’ Pythagorean paradox, and assess historic performance runs by athletes such as Mikaela Shiffrin and Scottie Scheffler.

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Rethinking Tennis Strategy Through Data and Coachability Feb 11, 2026

Show notes

Craig O'Shannessy, tennis strategist, analyst for multiple Grand Slams, and New York Times contributor, joins the show to discusses how data-driven decision-making, underused tactics like serve-and-volley, and coachability separate today’s champions from the rest of the field. Cade, Eric, and Shane also analyze Seattle’s defensive-driven win in Super Bowl LX, reassess quarterback ceilings under pressure, and connect those insights to Olympic tournament design and the role of randomness in elite sports outcomes.

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Scaling Insights: How Big Data and Simulation are Transforming the NFL Feb 04, 2026

Show notes

Michael Lopez, Senior Director of Football Data and Analytics at the NFL, joins the Moneyball team to explain the use of causal inference and drive simulations in shaping the modern game of football. Plus, Eric and Adi explore the mathematical phenomenon of regression to the mean and how it applies to the unprecedented career trajectories of athletes like Carlos Alcaraz and Shohei Ohtani.

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Prediction Markets and the Future of Sports Betting Analytics Jan 28, 2026

Show notes

Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor and quantitative analyst, discusses the rise of prediction markets, comparing them to traditional sportsbooks while exploring liquidity, market-making, automation, and the evolving edge for sophisticated bettors. Plus, the Moneyball team has a wide-ranging sports analytics discussion covering Super Bowl matchup expectations, controversial coaching decisions, quarterback perception biases, and key storylines shaping the Australian Open.

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Inside College Football’s Data-Driven Evolution and Decision-Making Jan 21, 2026

Show notes

Ty Hildenbrandt, co-host of The Solid Verbal college football podcast, joins Cade, Adi, and Eric to explore how sports analytics—from evaluating Indiana’s national championship run to in-game decision-making, quarterback development, coaching philosophy, and the transfer portal—are reshaping the future of college football.

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When Analytics Meet Chaos in Football Playoffs Jan 14, 2026

Show notes

Neil Payne, sports analytics writer and creator of a leading sports Substack, discusses playoff parity, coaching impact, home-field advantage, and how analytics can—and can’t—explain who ultimately wins in today’s NFL and college football postseason. Cade, Eric, Shane & Adi also analyze hockey plus-minus limitations, Grand Slam betting dominance, Baseball Hall of Fame probabilities, and how NIL deals and the transfer portal are transforming competitive balance in college football.

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Data-Driven NFL Playoffs and College Football’s Shifting Power Jan 07, 2026

Show notes

ESPN National Football Analyst Seth Walder, and Steven Godfrey, college football writer for Yahoo Sports and The Washington Post and co-host of the College Football Enquirer podcast, join Cade and Shane to examine the NFL playoff landscape through advanced metrics and unpack the College Football Playoff’s surprises, transfer portal strategy, and evolving SEC–Big Ten balance of power.

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How AI and Bayesian Models Are Reshaping Sports Analytics Dec 31, 2025

Show notes

Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner examine how AI-driven metrics, model calibration, and Bayesian approaches inform quarterback evaluation, team upsets, and the evolving limits of sports analytics.

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What Advanced Metrics Reveal About the 2025 NFL Season Dec 24, 2025

Show notes

Aaron Schatz, Chief Analytics Officer at FTN Fantasy and founder of Football Outsiders, joins Eric Bradlow to explore how DVOA and play-by-play analytics challenge conventional narratives about the 2025 NFL season, conference strength, playoff probabilities, and the growing influence of data in awards voting. Plus, Eric walks through real-world examples of using generative AI to forecast NBA win totals, college football playoff probabilities, and NFL Super Bowl odds, highlighting how modern models apply Bayesian reasoning, betting markets, and simulation-based analytics.

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Breaking Down the College Football Playoff With Advanced Metrics Dec 17, 2025

Show notes

Bill Connelly, ESPN college football analyst and creator of SP+, Bill Connelly, joins Cade, Eric, Shane, and Adi to break down first-round playoff games, assess championship probabilities, and explain how analytics shape expectations in the expanded College Football Playoff. The Moneyball team also discusses the end of AFC quarterback dominance, and what today’s parity means for teams, windows, and dynasties across football.

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