This Means War

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SDR Threat Series – The Politics of a Defence Review Jan 29, 2025

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The politics of a review of a national security strategy are huge. What is the appetite for change? What is the appetite to deliver? What is the political reference and timeframe for decisions? How to balance domestic pressures and foreign threats? Former UK Minister of the Armed Forces, military veteran, and ex-MP, The Rt Hon James Heappey talks about the tensions and challenges of putting national security on the political agenda, getting it funded, delivering change, and why it doesn't always work as planned. A fascinating insight into how politics at this level works, with all the implications on industry, society, voter, and banking. No mincing of words here.

SDR Threat series – Buying Silver Bullets Dec 27, 2024

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The continual changes to British defence acquisition and procurement processes, frameworks, doctrines, strategies and plans have wreaked havoc with the military equipment plan for decades. Various – and sometimes radical – reforms have been tried to evolve a system that is ubiquitously criticised from everyone inside (and outside) the national security community. No one is happy, yet most people actually involved in it are trying very hard to make it work. This is not a uniquely British problem however: There is nowhere in the world that people are content with their procurement system - each one could be faster, buy better kit, deliver imporved value-for-money and quality, pleasing taxpayers as well as the people who use the kit. Given that the on-going UK SDR must try and come up with some recommendations to make it 'better' (hopefully in a different way than every other one has promised to do since 1997), what are the opportunities and risks this time around? Dr Andrew Curtis helps us think thus through with some sage advice: how about starting by implementing all the bits of some previous attempts at reform?

SDR Threat series - Missile Defence (you can't defend everything) Dec 18, 2024

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Successive reports from the UK parliament since 2022 have highlight the inadequacies of air and missile defences in the UK against a growing threat envelope. Like many European states, missile defence – from UAVs, conventional, ballistic or hypersonic missiles – has been an area that successive governments have underinvested in. Events in Ukraine, Syria, Yemen and Israel make those points with rather startling clarity. Part of the remit that the UK SDR has been charged with is a 'so what' moment on missile defence. What would good look like? What would it cost? Are we (in the UK and other European states) starting from scratch or is there an existing baseline to build on? One of the global IAMD experts and gurus in such matters is Tom Karako from CSIS in Washington DC. His pragmatism on what can be delivered, what must be defended against, and success looks like is noteworthy. As a finale, Tom offers some metrics of success of any UK announcement of a missile defence capability for the UK that is announced over the coming year.

The Threat Landscape with Peter Frankopan Dec 11, 2024

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National security risk registers capture a large number of potential threats to societies. So should any review of national security or national defence. The impacts of these risks are often more severe than predicted, and we are due a few more (according to pattern analysis over the history of the planet). Professor Peter Frankopan, global best-selling author and world renowned historian, talks through some of the big issues that should be on the agenda of any threat-based national security review including food, health, fuel, water, and raw materials.

The UK has a sound record of identifying these threats - even if successsive governments are poor at preparing for them. It is somewhat puzzling that any review of national security, like the one that the UK is currently undertaking, should be focused solely on military, geopolitical and technology risks and not those that might prove a much greater challenge to the safety and security of the state.

SDR Threat Series: Misunderstanding Adversaries and Inconvenient Threats Dec 04, 2024

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National security is an all-encompassing, cross-society endeavour: Any national security strategy must be that too, or it will miss critical elements and levers. In conversation with Maria de Goeij Reid from the Changing Character of War programme at Oxford University, the often-ignored aspects of resilience and economics within SDRs is brought starkly to the fore. By relying on convenient threats (ie those that have a military and foreign policy solution), policymakers, military and political leaders return to their comfortable intellectual spaces of known-knowns and simply reprioritise some policy and military capability: the result is a series of surprises (that have previously been predicted by other arms of government), for which the state is ill-prepared or not equipped to respond to. At the heart of all this lies an inability to understand adversaries, or our own decision-making. Maria makes a compelling case for putting more emphasis on strategic empathy using the lessons from advances in complexity economics.

SDR Threat Series: Weapons, Systems, and the promise of AI Nov 12, 2024

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Professor Tony King (author of "Command", "Urban Warfare", and "The Combat Soldier") talks through his understanding of how threats will develop over the coming years, not least of which will be another Trump presidency in the USA. Using Great Power Competition as a guide, Tony talks about warfare regimes that will accompany the proliferation of state sponsored proxies, about where national security challenges will emerge, and the inability of tradiotnal (declining?) powers to deal with them alone. New weapons, the importance of systems, and the complexity of decision-making all feature in an episode that culminates in a discussion on AI and War; the topic of Tony's recent research and his forthcoming book. His conclusions: we need to be more sceptical about what AI will deliver in terms of 'savings'.

This mini-series is sponsored by Raytheon UK.

SDR Threats Series: Styles and Themes of Contemporary Warfare Nov 03, 2024

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As the nearly new UK government formulate a Strategic Defence Review (probably for publication after new US President takes office), this mini-series looks at the threats and how the UK might mitigate them.

In this episode Professor Paul Cornish talks to Peter about the Styles and Themes of threats that the UK (like many Euopean states) face, and the need for strategic thinking not another strategy. Paul is depressingly clear about how successive British reviews of national security has become a "cottage industry of nonsense", replying on useless metrics, irrelevant images, and cliched catchphrases (global Britain, fusion doctrine, integrated, comprehensive, full-spectrum, sunrise/sunset, et al). In characterising the contemporary threats, Paul talks about similarities to the pre-Cold War era as distinct from the popular narratives towards a 'new Cold War'.

The series will culminate in a Q+A session. Send your comments, puzzles and questions to Peter@ThisMeansWar.co.uk.

NATO finale: Friends and Enemies (Question Time) Aug 14, 2024

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This mini series about NATO has taken some people out of their comfort zone: nonetheless, there has been a lot of positive feedback about the honesty of these conversation about the Alliance. In the final episode of this series, Peter talks again to Professor Julian Lindley French about NATO's friends and enemies and tackle some questions from listeners. In the end, they address the thorny question of a second Trump presidency and what that could mean for the Alliance.

The series has been is co-sponsored by NATO Public Diplomacy Division. It's reassuring to know that the Alliance has the self-confidence to foster an honest and open debate about NATO. That's not something you would find from lesser organisations. Chapeau!

The real heroes of NATO Jul 31, 2024

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NATO is rarely covered by mainstream news outlets between annual summits yet the work goes on constantly. In this episode, Peter talks to Professor Julian Lindley-French about the unsung heroes of the Alliance: the PermReps, the MilReps, the International Staff, the International Military Staff, and the Chairman of the Military Committee. Whilst the Sec Gen and SACEUR get all the headlines, it is this team of dedicated professionals who make deterrence and denial actually happen. Kudos to them.

This episode is co-sponsored by NATO Public Diplomacy Division.

NATO's Successes and Unsuccesses Jun 20, 2024

Show notes

NATO is often trumpeted as the most successful military Alliance in human history: a grand claim indeed. The reality is less definitive. NATO did not win the Cold War alone nor has it had military success in every campaign; it was not responsible for the end of piracy off Somalia and the training missions in the Middle East did not deliver what was promised. The Alliance can be disfunctional, self-serving, and procedural inept too. Yet it has also delivered the underpinnings of peace and security for 75 years to member states. What has made it successful and what has undermined the other bits? Peter talks to Professor Julian Lindley-French about political leadership and strategy, the failure of advice, the inability to implement plans, and the European problem of only recognising as much threat (to national security) as you can afford.

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