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Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe.
A few short weeks ago, US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran that was widely panned, especially in Israel. The bizarre agreement met none of the US or Israel war aims, extracted no concessions from Iran, and even gave it effective control over the fighting in Lebanon.
Predictably, the MOU hasn't led to anything like peace. This week, Iran launched attacks on civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to US strikes, followed by Iran launching drones and rockets at Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.
Is the Trump MOU dead? If it's not, how should Israel ensure that its goals are met, even if returning to war in the short term is not possible? And what does this mean for Israel's fight against Iranian proxies on its borders?
Dr. Eyal Hulata, a veteran of Israel's security services, served as National Security Adviser in the previous government under Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. As the figure who led Israel's inter-agency effort to confront the Iranian threat, Hulata is uniquely positioned to discuss Israel's long fight against the Islamic Republic.
He said that Israelis should be proud of the effectiveness and accomplishments of the two air campaigns against Iran, which pushed back the Iranian nuclear program significantly.
However, said Hulata, as long as the regime controls Iran, it will be almost impossible to solve the Iranian problem.
Even though the US and Iran failed to topple the regime, Hulata stressed that the country is being led by new figures, and it is too early to say whether they will be more hardline than their predecessors.
Regardless of the disappointing way the campaign ended, Hulata noted, what is important now is to look toward the next phase of the struggle against the Iranian threat. Iran's military and defense industry were badly degraded, but those achievements will be temporary if they are not followed up by ongoing pressure, sanctions, and intelligence operations.
Israeli intelligence must remain intensely focused on Iran's nuclear sites, he said, in order to detect any attempts to return to nuclear enrichment. Israel will have to respond to such a development, Hulata emphasized.
Ballistic missiles will continue to not only be a threat to Israel, but also to Iran's Arab neighbors. Israel must ensure that Iran's missile stockpile doesn't become too large for Israeli multi-layered air defenses, said Hulata.
Any deal reached between Trump and Iran, even if that is unlikely, must not give Iran anything they don't have right now, said Hulata. Iran has not been able to enrich uranium for over a year, he noted, and should not be given permission to do so in an agreement.
However, Iran will not make any concessions unless they are pressured into doing so, Hulata emphasized.
"We shouldn't buy into this narrative that they have won in this military conflict," said Hulata. "They've suffered unprecedented amounts of of of damage, direct losses and indirect losses. The only way that they can recover from this is through the waivers that an American president will give them in exchange for a negotiated agreement."
"This is why it is important that this negotiated agreement demands substantial outcomes," he continued. "Otherwise will be just kicking the can down the road and this will not be good in the long term."
Turning to Lebanon, Hulata said the agreement signed with Beirut is the right approach, though Israel should not give anything up that compromises its security. The Lebanese government understands the Hezbollah threat, he said, but lacks capacity. In order for it to succeed, Beirut needs to commit to pushing back militarily against Hezbollah, with the firm backing of international partners. At the same time, Iran's financial support for Hezbollah must be cut off.
On Syria, Hulata said that while Ahmed al-Sharaa is a jihadist, he shares the Israeli interest in reducing Iran's influence in Syria. At the same time, Turkish influence there is a serious problem, and Israel needs to keep a close eye on a growing threat from Ankara.
Hulata said that while Israel could have done much more to break Hamas rule in Gaza, its best move now is to stick with Trump's 20-point plan, while bringing in partners like the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
"Hamas is way weaker than it was before," Hulata said. "Hamas is disconnected from external lifelines of support. There is an ability to have a civilian rule in Gaza that would take power from Hamas and push it away."
That would take creating safe civilian areas in the Israeli-controlled parts of Gaza in order to create new conditions in Gaza.
Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht.
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