The Memo by Howard Marks

Ruminating on Asset Allocation Oct 22, 2024

In his latest memo, Howard Marks outlines the need to base asset allocation decisions around an established risk target. He describes the fundamental differences between ownership and debt, as well as the importance of finding the combination of the two that gets an investor’s portfolio to the desired position on the risk/return continuum. Finally, he expands on the increased utility of debt investments in today’s portfolios.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/ruminating-on-asset-allocation.pdf?sfvrsn=67775566_2).

Shall We Repeal The Laws of Economics? Sep 19, 2024

In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the economic facts of life, as he examines the workings of free markets and what happens when they’re tampered with. He considers what “price-gouging” actually means and how rents should be set. He ultimately argues that the laws of economics shouldn’t be overridden — even when it’s politically advantageous to do so – because of the loss to society.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/shall-we-repeal-the-laws-of-economics.pdf?sfvrsn=ab205566_1).

Behind The Memo: The Impact of Debt with Howard Marks and Morgan Housel Aug 27, 2024

In this special episode of Behind the Memo, Howard Marks is joined by Morgan Housel, the bestselling author and partner at the Collaborative Fund. They discuss ideas from Howard’s recent memo “The Impact of Debt,” which was inspired by Morgan’s article “How I Think About Debt.” They explore the relationship between leverage and longevity, the nature of risk, and the eternal relevance of Voltaire’s famous saying: “History doesn’t repeat itself. Man always does.”

You can listen to or read the Memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo-podcast/the-impact-of-debt).

Mr. Market Miscalculates Aug 22, 2024

In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the reasons for the recent market volatility using one of finance’s classic metaphors: Mr. Market, the figure Benjamin Graham created in 1949 to explain the erratic nature of financial markets. Howard pulls together some of his best writing on investor psychology from the past three decades, adds some of his favorite investing cartoons, and offers a few new observations. He suggests that Mr. Market’s lessons about the behavior of markets are as relevant today as they were 75 years ago.

You can read the memo here (https://cnt.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/mr-market-miscalculates.pdf?sfvrsn=ddfe5566_1).

Behind the Memo: The Indispensability of Risk with Howard Marks, Bruce Karsh, and Maurice Ashley Jul 23, 2024

In this episode of Behind the Memo, Howard Marks is joined by two special guests: Oaktree cofounder Bruce Karsh and the chess Grandmaster Maurice Ashley. In a wide-ranging conversation, they discuss Howard’s recent memo "The Indispensability of Risk" as well as the inspiration for that memo: Maurice’s Wall Street Journal article, "Chess Teaches the Power of Sacrifice." They consider the many parallels between chess and investing, including the lesson that not taking enough risk may be one of the riskiest strategies of all.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/the-indispensability-of-risk.pdf?sfvrsn=52b45666_3).

The Folly of Certainty Jul 17, 2024

In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the importance of avoiding expressions of absolute certainty when operating in fields subject to randomness and human emotion, like politics, economics, and investing. He suggests that it’s better to have humility and acknowledge that the smartest thing to say is often “I don’t know.”

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-folly-of-certainty).

The Insight: Conversations - Oaktree Conference 2024 Edition Jul 02, 2024

In a special edition of The Insight: Conversations, you’ll hear excerpts from multiple sessions held during Oaktree’s recent biannual client conference. Oaktree co-chairman Howard Marks does a deep dive into his sea change thesis, members of Oaktree’s Global Credit team examine the most significant trends impacting the high yield bond and leveraged loan markets, and Oaktree’s Opportunistic Credit team explores key themes reshaping today’s restructuring environment.

Bonus Episode: Howard Marks on “In Good Company” Jun 18, 2024

Oaktree Co-Chairman Howard Marks (https://www.linkedin.com/in/howardmarksbook/) joined the In Good Company podcast with Nicolai Tangen (https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolai-tangen/). They discussed Howard's investment philosophy, risk management, and how to determine the quality of a decision.

The Impact of Debt May 08, 2024

In his latest memo, Howard Marks examines the relationship between leverage and survivability, taking inspiration from a recent Collaborative Fund post by Morgan Housel. Howard explains why determining the appropriate amount of leverage should be about optimization, not maximization.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-impact-of-debt).

The Insight: Conversations – Volatility Ahead? Featuring Howard Marks, Armen Panossian, and David Rosenberg May 06, 2024

Where are we in the market cycle? Why is it healthy to be uncertain? And what does it mean to actually “be opportunistic”? In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), Armen Panossian (Co-CEO), and David Rosenberg (Head of Liquid Performing Credit) discuss these and other topics from the recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 1Q2024: Unusually Uncertain.

The Indispensability of Risk Apr 17, 2024

In his latest memo, Howard Marks considers what chess can teach investors about the paradox of risk-taking. Drawing on insights from a recent Wall Street Journal article (https://www.wsj.com/sports/chess-teaches-the-power-of-sacrifice-221db7b7) by chess grandmaster Maurice Ashley, Howard explains why not taking enough risk may be one of the riskiest strategies of all.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-indispensability-of-risk).

The Archive: You Bet! Mar 21, 2024

In his 2020 memo You Bet!, Howard Marks explained what it means to “think in bets,” as he discussed the many parallels between investing and games of chance. Now you can listen to You Bet!, the first release from The Memo by Howard Marks: The Archive. We’ve received many requests for an audio library of the memos that Howard Marks has published over the last 34 years, so we’re going to begin building this archive by releasing audio versions of some of Howard’s most popular memos.

To hear more about Howard’s thoughts on this memo, listen to his conversation with former professional poker player and best-selling author Annie Duke, whose 2018 book Thinking in Bets was the inspiration for the memo. This special episode (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-podcast/market-commentary/the-insight-conversations-special-episode-with-annie-duke-and-howard-marks) of the The Insight: Conversations with Howard and Annie was released in December 2023.

Behind the Memo: Easy Money with Howard Marks and Edward Chancellor Feb 08, 2024

In this special episode of Behind the Memo, Howard Marks is joined by journalist and financial historian Edward Chancellor to discuss ideas from Howard’s recent memo, Easy Money, which was inspired by Edward’s book, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. They explore the history of interest rates, the profound impact they’ve had on financial markets, and the potential dangers of keeping them too low.

You can listen to "Easy Money" in the prior episode in this feed.

Easy Money Jan 09, 2024

In his latest memo, Howard Marks considers what financial history can teach us about periods of easy money, the impact they have on investor behavior, and what happens when they end. He analyzes macroeconomic trends using insights from Edward Chancellor’s latest book The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest to argue that we’re unlikely to soon see the return of the permissive investment climate that prevailed in recent decades.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/easy-money).

The Insight: Conversations – Walking into the Unknown with Howard Marks, David Rosenberg, and Aman Kumar Jan 04, 2024

What is a “normal” investment environment? What might a recession in 2024 mean for liquid credit? What’s happening in life sciences lending today? Find out by listening to the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations with Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), David Rosenberg (Co-Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), and Aman Kumar (Co-Portfolio Manager, Life Sciences Lending). They discuss topics from the December edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters and consider what investors should focus on as we enter 2024 – and what remains unknowable.

The Insight: Conversations – Special Episode with Annie Duke and Howard Marks Dec 06, 2023

Special guest Annie Duke (former professional poker player, best-selling author) joins Howard Marks to discuss ideas from her book Thinking in Bets and Howard’s memo You Bet! They explore luck, decision quality, uncertainty, and more in this special episode of The Insight: Conversations.

The Insight: Conversations – Full Return World with Howard Marks and Armen Panossian Nov 02, 2023

Howard Marks (Co-Chairman) and Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) discuss topics related to Howard’s latest memo, Further Thoughts on Sea Change, and Oaktree’s recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 3Q2023 in this crossover episode of The Insight: Conversations and Behind the Memo. They consider the implications of the potential sea change reshaping the investment environment, the tail risks building in today’s markets, and what it means to be in a full return world.

Further Thoughts on "Sea Change" Oct 11, 2023

In his latest memo, Howard Marks provides a follow-up to Sea Change (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change), his thought-provoking memo published in December 2022. He argues that the trends he highlighted in the original memo collectively represent a sweeping alteration of the investment environment that calls for significant capital reallocation. Further Thoughts on Sea Change was originally sent exclusively to Oaktree clients on May 30, 2023. All market data cited in this memo is as of May 30, 2023.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/further-thoughts-on-sea-change3dda4540-569f-4415-9a5b-004fbabf06d4.pdf?sfvrsn=c3cc5166_3).

The Insight: Conversations – Credit Picker’s Market with Wayne Dahl, Robert O’Leary, and Mark Jacobs Oct 05, 2023

How have credit investors been successfully navigating the volatile interest rate environment? Which sectors currently look attractive to opportunistic credit investors? What are some of the major misconceptions about today’s commercial real estate market? In this episode of The Insight: Conversations, Wayne Dahl (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), Robert O’Leary (Portfolio Manager, Global Opportunities), and Mark Jacobs (Co-Portfolio Manager, Real Estate Income) discuss topics from the September edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters(https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-commentary/market-commentary/the-roundup-top-takeaways-from-oaktrees-quarterly-letters-september-2023-edition) and explain what it means to be in a credit picker’s market.

Behind the Memo: Fewer Losers, or More Winners? Sep 20, 2023

In the latest episode of Behind the Memo, Howard discusses his recent memo: Fewer Losers, or More Winners? He details the inspiration for the memo and explains why investors – like tennis players – need to consider their skill level, aspirations, and risk tolerance when asking themselves a fundamental question: Should I go for more winners, or try to avoid the losers?

You can listen to Fewer Losers, or More Winners? in the prior episode or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/fewer-losers-or-more-winners).

Fewer Losers, or More Winners? Sep 12, 2023

In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the essential choice in both investing and sports: should you go for more winners or try to eliminate losers? That is, should you emphasize aggressiveness or defensiveness? This is a key decision that every investor has to make thoughtfully, and the answer can be different for each person.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/fewer-losers-or-more-winners).

The Insight: Conversations – European Credit at a Turning Point Sep 08, 2023

Learn about the current state of European credit and the dramatic changes seen over the last year in this thought-provoking discussion with Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit), Madelaine Jones (Portfolio Manager, European Senior Loans and European High Yield Bonds), and Nael Khatoun (Head of European Private Debt). They consider the challenges created by the end of the easy money era, risks posed by geopolitics and artificial intelligence, and the quality advantage that exists in European markets.

The Insight: Conversations – Fighting the Fed with Armen Panossian, Danielle Poli, and Megan Messina Aug 08, 2023

Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit), Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), and Megan Messina (Head of CLO Capital Markets) discuss topics from the 2Q2023 Performing Credit Quarterly. They consider the current tug-of war between fiscal and monetary policy, opportunities in credit, and what many investors are getting wrong about today’s CLO market.

Taking The Temperature Jul 10, 2023

In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses five market calls he’s made during his career. He argues that investors seeking to take the temperature of the market should focus on understanding prevailing market psychology and the nature of cycles. Just as importantly, they should learn to control their own emotions and have the humility to know when not to make a call.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/taking-the-temperature.pdf?sfvrsn=93bb5366_6).

The Insight: Conversations – This Time Might Be Different with Howard Marks and David Rosenberg Jun 27, 2023

David Rosenberg, co-portfolio manager of Oaktree’s U.S. and Global High Yield strategies, and Howard Marks discuss topics from the June 2023 edition of The Roundup. They consider the evolution of the high yield bond market, investor optimism and why this time might actually be different in financial markets.

The Insight: Conversations – Cutting Through the Economic Noise with Wayne Dahl May 25, 2023

Oaktree Investment Risk Officer Wayne Dahl explains why economic statistics can tell conflicting stories and what this means for credit investors trying to make sense of today’s noisy data.

The Insight: Conversations – Performing Credit Quarterly 1Q2023 Apr 20, 2023

In the first episode of Oaktree’s new podcast, Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) and Howard Marks (Co-Chairman) discuss key takeaways from the 1Q2023 Performing Credit Quarterly, including the potential ramifications of the recent banking turmoil, opportunities in private credit and a possible rise in distress. As part of the discussion, they explore Howard’s memo Lessons from Silicon Valley Bank.

Lessons from Silicon Valley Bank Apr 17, 2023

In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the significance of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. He argues that it likely doesn’t portend a wave of banking failures but may amplify preexisting wariness among investors and lenders, leading to further credit tightening and additional pain across a range of industries and sectors.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/lessons-from-silicon-valley-bank).

The Rewind: Calling The Market Mar 07, 2023

Howard looks back on several memos he’s written near major turning points in the market over the last few decades, from the bursting of the dot-com bubble to the pandemic-driven crisis in early 2020. He considers what an investor should – and shouldn’t – focus on when making a market call.

The Rewind: Ditto Feb 02, 2023

Howard is joined by Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield, for a discussion of Ditto, which was originally published on January 7, 2013. They examine the distinction between price and value and consider how investors might gain a competitive advantage today. This episode was recorded in November 2022.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

Behind the Memo: Sea Change Jan 05, 2023

In the latest episode of Behind the Memo, Howard discusses his most recent memo, Sea Change. He explains why the shift we may currently be experiencing could force investors to rethink the meaning of "normal."

You can listen to Sea Change in the prior episode or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change).

Sea Change Dec 13, 2022

In his latest memo, Howard Marks writes that the investment world may be experiencing the third major sea change over the last 50 years. Events in recent years – especially the spike in inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response – appear to have caused a reversal of the market conditions that prevailed during the post-GFC (Global Financial Crisis) period and for much of the last four decades. Howard discusses what this potentially new era could mean for lenders, especially bargain hunters.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change).

Behind the Memo: What Really Matters? Dec 06, 2022

In the latest episode of Behind the Memo, Howard discusses his most recent memo, What Really Matters?, and looks back on a year of memo-writing. He considers the themes that have dominated his thinking in 2022 and highlights his key messages for investors, including one they may not want to hear.

You can listen to What Really Matters? in the prior episode or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/what-really-matters).

What Really Matters? Nov 22, 2022

In his latest memo, Howard Marks weaves together some of the themes he’s explored in 2022 to explain what he believes really matters in investing and what doesn’t. He discusses the disadvantages of short-term thinking, the difference between volatility and risk, and the one word he believes defines the essence of investment excellence.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

You can read the memo here ( ).

The Rewind: Global Financial Crisis Oct 13, 2022

Howard reflects on memos related to the Global Financial Crisis with Bob O’Leary, Co-Portfolio Manager of Oaktree’s Global Opportunities strategy. They share their most striking memories from the years leading up to and during the crisis. They also discuss today’s market environment and consider whether investors have forgotten many of the lessons they should have learned during this tumultuous period.

Behind the Memo: The Illusion of Knowledge Sep 13, 2022

In the latest episode of Behind the Memo, Howard discusses key themes from his recent memo, The Illusion of Knowledge. He explains why creating helpful macro forecasts is so challenging and why “thinking about macro” and forecasting aren’t the same thing.

You can listen to The Illusion of Knowledge in the prior episode or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of-knowledge).

The Illusion of Knowledge Sep 08, 2022

Howard Marks has long questioned the value of macro forecasts, but in his latest memo, he explains why creating profitable forecasts is so difficult. He discusses the incredible complexity involved in modeling an economy and makes it clear that forecasting mostly provides the illusion of knowledge. He argues that investors are better off accepting reality — that the macro future is largely unknowable — and focusing on what they can know.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of-knowledge).

Behind the Memo: I Beg To Differ Aug 04, 2022

In the latest episode of Behind the Memo, Howard discusses his recent memo, I Beg to Differ. He explains why investors seeking to outperform need to think differently, be exceptional, and be prepared to look wrong – even when they’re right.

You can listen to I Beg To Differ in the prior episode or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/i-beg-to-differ).

I Beg To Differ Jul 26, 2022

Howard Marks’s latest memo argues that investors seeking superior performance must have the courage to depart from the pack, even though doing so means accepting the risk of being wrong. Thinking differently and better than others is key to outperformance, he explains, because in investing, it’s not enough to be right. You have to be more right than most. This means being able to tell when the investment crowd is focused on all the wrong things.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser. You can read the memo here (https://cnt.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/i-beg-to-differ.pdf?sfvrsn=7d814866_9)

The Rewind: Something of Value Jun 16, 2022

Howard reflects on this memo, originally published on January 11, 2021, with his son Andrew Marks. They discuss why open-mindedness – at all ages – is key when investing in a rapidly changing world. Andrew is the co-managing partner of TQ Ventures, a technology-focused venture capital firm founded four years ago that has over 80 portfolio companies.

You can read “Something of Value” here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/something-of-value.pdf).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

Behind the Memo: Bull Market Rhymes Jun 02, 2022

In the latest episode of Behind the Memo, Howard discusses his recent memo, Bull Market Rhymes. Howard explains why investing keeps getting harder and why looking to the past can potentially help investors better analyze the innovations that may – or may not – shape the future.

You can listen to Bull Market Rhymes in the prior episode or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/bull-market-rhymes).

Bull Market Rhymes May 26, 2022

Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/bull-market-rhymes.pdf?sfvrsn=df8b4b66_9).

The Rewind: Lines in the Sand Apr 28, 2022

Howard reflects on this memo (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/lines-in-the-sand.pdf) originally published on April 18, 2017. Following up on his classic memo You Can’t Eat IRR (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2006-07-12-you-cant-eat-irr.pdf), he discusses why financial innovations that can artificially boost IRRs, like subscription lines, should be treated cautiously and why no single performance metric tells the whole story.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

Behind the Memo: The Pendulum in International Affairs Mar 31, 2022

In the latest episode of Behind the Memo, Howard discusses the origins and important themes of his recent memo, The Pendulum in International Affairs. Howard explains why one of his favorite metaphors – the pendulum – can help investors understand psychology, markets and foreign policy.

You can listen to The Pendulum in International Affairs in the prior episode or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/the-pendulum-in-intl-affairs.pdf?sfvrsn=53b17666_7).

The Pendulum in International Affairs Mar 23, 2022

Howard Marks’s latest memo connects two seemingly unrelated trends – Europe’s energy dependence and U.S. offshoring – to explain why the pendulum of companies’ and countries’ behavior may be swinging away from globalization and toward onshoring. This shift will likely create risk for investors but also opportunities.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/the-pendulum-in-intl-affairs.pdf).

The Rewind: It’s All a Big Mistake Feb 24, 2022

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on June 20, 2012. He discusses why understanding mistakes – both your own and others’ – is key to superior investing. He’s joined by Bob O’Leary, Global Co-Portfolio Manager of Oaktree’s Global Opportunities strategy.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2012-06-20-its-all-a-big-mistake.pdf?sfvrsn=17bb0f65_2).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

Introducing "Behind The Memo": Selling Out Jan 21, 2022

Listen to the first episode of our new series Behind the Memo, in which Howard breaks down his latest memo, discussing its origins, themes and key insights. In Selling Out, published on January 13, 2022, Howard explains why staying invested is usually the most important thing.

You can listen to Selling Out in the prior episode or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/selling-out).

Selling Out Jan 13, 2022

Howard Marks’s latest memo considers one of investing’s most fundamental questions: when to sell. Howard explains that it’s foolish to sell because prices are up and because they’re down – and why, most of the time, staying invested is ultimately “the most important thing.”

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/selling-out).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

The Rewind: Uncertainty Dec 20, 2021

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on May 11, 2020.  Writing near the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis, he discusses the power of saying “I don’t know” and the danger of confirmation bias. Drawing on the insights of thinkers from Voltaire to Albert Einstein, Howard explains why he believes having intellectual humility is essential for outstanding investing. 

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/uncertainty.pdf).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

The Winds of Change Nov 30, 2021

The last 20 months have taught us to question everything. What is the future of work? Can American democracy survive? Will Baby Boomers keep consuming more than their fair share? And what comes after “trillion”? Howard Marks’s latest memo examines paradigm shifts that could reshape the economy, markets and the world for many years to come. (November 23, 2021)

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/thewindsofchange.pdf)

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

The Rewind: What Does The Market Know? Oct 07, 2021

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on January 19, 2016. In the second episode of a two-part series, he discusses the problems with taking advice from the market. But he also draws on insights from his latest memo, Thinking About Macro, to consider what it means when the market does get it right.

The Rewind: On The Couch Sep 30, 2021

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on January 14, 2016. In the first of a two-part series, he analyzes investors’ irrationality and discusses why things that are obvious in investing are usually wrong.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/on-the-couch.pdf).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

The Rewind: Us and Them Aug 26, 2021

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on May 7, 2004. In a discussion that namechecks both psychologist Amos Tversky and tennis great Pete Sampras, Howard explains why too much confidence can be a dangerous thing.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2004-05-07-us-and-them.pdf).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

Thinking About Macro Jul 30, 2021

Howard Marks doesn’t make bets on economic predictions. That’s especially true now when the biggest wildcard is inflation – a phenomenon no one fully understands. But just because something is unknowable doesn’t mean it’s unimportant. That’s why Howard has devoted his latest memo to a topic he largely disavows: macro forecasting. (July 29, 2021)

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/thinkingaboutmacro.pdf).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

The Rewind: It Is What It Is Jun 24, 2021

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on March 27, 2006. In this wide-ranging discussion, he weaves together the Japanese concept of mujo, probability theory and the Super Bowl to suggest investors should spend less time looking for silver bullets and more time cultivating humility.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2006-03-27-it-is-what-it-is.pdf?sfvrsn=87bc0f65_2).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

The Rewind: Dare to Be Great II May 05, 2021

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on April 8, 2014. In the second episode of a two-part series, he asks whether investors are willing to do what is necessary in order to be great – including being willing to look wrong.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2014-04-08-dare-to-be-great-ii.pdf?sfvrsn=44b60f65_2).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

The Rewind: Dare to Be Great Apr 29, 2021

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on September 7, 2006. In the first episode of a two-part series, he offers suggestions to those daring to be superior investors. There are no formulas, but there is a prerequisite: one must think differently.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2006-09-07-dare-to-be-great.pdf?sfvrsn=b3bc0f65_2).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

2020 in Review Mar 19, 2021

Last year featured a jaw-dropping list of extremes, from a once-in-a-century pandemic to record-breaking market moves. Howard Marks writes in his latest memo about approaching the investment environment left in 2020’s wake – one generating many questions and no easy answers. (March 4, 2021)

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

The Rewind: You Can’t Predict. You Can Prepare. Feb 24, 2021

Howard looks back on this memo, originally published on November 20, 2001. The title was inspired by a TV commercial tagline from that time: “It's almost a Yogi Berra type statement that makes no apparent sense on first reading, but then it turns out to be quite wise.”

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2001-11-20-you-cant-predict-you-can-prepare.pdf?sfvrsn=bc00f65_2).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

Something of Value Jan 14, 2021

The dichotomy of “value” and “growth” investing has become a sharp stylistic divide. But is it helpful? In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses how he views the art and science of value investing, especially in the increasingly efficient and complex world we face today. (January 11, 2021)

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/something-of-value.pdf).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

The Rewind: bubble.com Dec 21, 2020

Howard looks back on his memo titled “bubble.com,” originally published on January 2, 2000, and credited with making his memo writing an “overnight success” after 10 years without a single response.

To view the referenced graphics, see the original memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2000-01-02-bubble.pdf?sfvrsn=37bc0f65_2).

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

Introducing “The Rewind”: The Route To Performance Nov 30, 2020

Today we debut a new series, “The Rewind,” in which Howard looks back on some of his memos over the years, discusses their origin and considers their relevance in today’s financial environment. We start with his very first memo, “The Route To Performance,” originally published on October 12, 1990.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

Coming Into Focus Oct 19, 2020

In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the unusual characteristics of this year’s economy; the impact of Covid-related monetary and fiscal policy actions on today’s markets; and the possible ramifications of the Fed/Treasury’s rescue efforts. (October 13, 2020)

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

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