The Grumpy Strategists

Latest Episodes:

Plumbing new depths in politics. And Chinese sub numbers & PLA purges - actually mindboggling Feb 26, 2026

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Marcus goes diving to try to find rock bottom in Australian political discourse, but has to come up for air. He at least found the curious case of a Canberra cafe that police found had put up satirical posters & hosts live music (What have we come to as a people???). No arrests or jail time yet....Then it's back to the undersea world of AUKUS progress and the far more concrete, rapid momentum behind Chinese nuclear powered - and armed - submarine production. They managed to build a new shed and other facilities in 3 years (not 16) and seem to have completed 11 nuclear submarines since AUKUS was announced. Ouch. On the Xi Jinping downside though, the riskiest job in the Chinese military turns out to be one he promoted you into: Xi's purges are expanding in his later years in power, and even seasoned Pekinologists are confused.

Mindboggling! celebrating $30 billion on sub sheds (not actual subs), while leaders outdo One Nation's darker instincts Feb 19, 2026

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The Grumpy Strategists boggle at the sheer chutzpah of PM Albanese and State Premier Malinauskas announcing as a triumph spending $30 billion & taking until 2040 to build submarine construction sheds (not actual submarines). At least the premier had the honesty to say the biggest beneficiaries weren't Australians worried about security, they were the South Australians who are to receive this firehose of taxpayer cash. He's right to be boggled. Meanwhile, Australia's leaders across the spectrum from Labor, through the Coalition into One Nation land are outdoing each other in expressing their fear about the potential return of 34 women and children from camps in Syria, while clamping down on the evil of immigration. It's bad form to notice that our health system - and many other industries - depend on migrants....

Australia's defence budget update: a sugar hit followed by a $2.6bn cut. Take that, Mr Trump, sir! Feb 10, 2026

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The Grumpy Strategists pan for gold in 234 pages of dense, incoherent Government paperwork setting out the Albanese Government's revised plans for our nation's defence, and find some rather smelly nuggets. About $3.2 billion dollars is being brought forward to be spent earlier than planned - with a $1.2 billion chunk on more bills for those still distant AUKUS subs. But the overall Defence budget for this next 4 years is being cut by $2.6 billion. Mr Albanese may have smiled at US President Donald Trump, but he's stood strong against pressure to grow defence spending and got Treasury's razor gang in. Canadian PM Carney might make rousing speeches at Davos opposing the Trump Administration, but Mr Albanese acts. It's a great day for independent middle powers! Oh, and the Defence bureaucracy finds a way to insult King Charles.

Deceased estate: Oz Defence sells the silver to fund poor lifestyle choices, & US obliterating Iranian nukes (again). Feb 05, 2026

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The Grumpy Strategists look at the recent 'historic" plan for Australia's Defence real estate (okay, a shameless Government asset sale of historic sites to perhaps produce a one-off cash dribble that will be sucked into the AUKUS sub & Hunter frigate budgetary black holes.....). Metrics show the value of this deceased estate approach to Defence properties: flogging off most of the places Defence actually makes contact with Australians in urban areas may provide enough cash for two "Hegseths" - those $1 billion AUKUS suitcases Richard Marles travels with - or pay for 1/5 of a Hunter frigate. Hmmm. The upside is a joint venture for a tasteful new 112 storey bunker. Then it's a dive into the implications for Australia from the marked strategy shift the US has taken between the Oct 2022 & Jan 2026 National Defense Strategies, & a look at the Pentagon's disgraceful disregard of Mr Trump's recent complete and total obliteration of Iran's nuclear program: by gathering forces to....obliterate Iran's nuclear program. It's so hard to get good help.

Penguins, not principles, key to Australia's Trump management - & Ozzie maritime strategy tied to a collapsing US Navy Jan 21, 2026

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Marcus & Michael pull together a deal Australian PM Albanese can offer to his great & powerful pal, US President Trump, at his first meeting of the Board of Peace, with lessons in Trump-management even for Vladimir Putin. They review the Australian Government's cunning formula on US actions in the world - 'I don't intend to provide a running commentary on American policy' - and assess how well this text will work as the basis for Australian strategy in the new National Defence Strategy. Then it's a look at US Navy plans to double down on the failed concepts behind both the Zumwalt class warships and the Littoral Combat Ship, before the episode ends with some good news about Australia & renewable power.

Trump's edifice complex gets Grumpy, & 2025 strategic & Aussie military takeaways Dec 22, 2025

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What's in a name? The Trumpy Strategists Bunker showcases the direction of Australian policy in 2025, while the Grumpies ponder MAGA tensions from Turning Point USA to Susie Wiles' cry for help in Vanity Fair. On bigger issues, Marcus & Michael look at the responses so far to the murderous Bondi attack, search for highlights in Australian military capability programs and look over the big policy takeaways from 2025. US self harm & a Beijing happy not to interrupt are prominent. Despite impending Christmas feasts and further Aussie cricketing glory, 2025 is ending with disturbing directions.

AUKUS gets steamy, & cherrypicking can't make the US National Security Strategy good news Dec 12, 2025

Show notes

Well, well, well. the Pentagon's AUKUS review is out - well, actually under lock and key, but apparently its' great news that is about "strengthening" AUKUS. Hard to know how something that was flawlessly on track could need or be strengthened....Australian & US defence and foreign policy heads met in a steamy AUSMIN meeting leaving the rest of us in the dark while they got close. Meanwhile, the jarringly self-congratulatory grievance filled US National Security Strategy is out, bringing back the 19th Century idea of spheres of influence, this time for America, Russia and China. The fragments of remaining commitment to allies & any sense of collective security will be seized on by governments pretending everything is still good, but any engagement with the changed America the NSS describes will look very different. Foreign interference is out unless it's done to US friends & allies, or makes a buck.

The hunt for Defence reform downunder: Mr Conroy & the Yeti. And the mystery of sea control with a tiny fleet Dec 06, 2025

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Marcus & his fellow SES emergency volunteers hunt for the "Biggest Defence Overhaul in 50 years" somewhere deep in the Brindabellas (WARNING: parts of this episode contain disturbing elements of earlier reforms who appear to have been victims of foul play). Good news - those blockers stopping delivery of stuff for Australia's military - the Secretary and the Chief of the Defence Force - won't be able to get away with this for much longer. Details are scarce but the hunt is relentless. Then it's time to chew over awkward facts about declining rates of flying by our Air Force and falling numbers of days at sea from our Navy's shrinking fleet. Far from protecting Australia's sea lanes, our Navy seems mainly designed to protect itself. The Flower Class corvettes of WW2 show an alternative way that works.

A democratic lockdown fit for an authoritarian & marking Defence's Annual Report homework Part 1 Dec 02, 2025

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The Grumpies broadcast from Australia's Parliament House while admiring the Government's lockdown of our democracy's capitol to make a visiting Chinese Communist Party member feel right at home. They start going over the Defence department's homework in its latest Annual report and find some blank spaces where answers should be. The episode ends with victory for Beijing in turning the South China Sea from an international maritime highway into contested space, & a chat about the controversy around a successful Australian company.

Australian industry gets more Aussie, while Australia writes defence cheques it can't cash Nov 19, 2025

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Marcus and Michael pursue littoral dominance in Canberra's Lake Burley-Griffin while pondering the Australian Government's new definition of Australian industry, and PM Albanese's defence agreement with former military strongman turned Indonesian President Prabowo. They send Treasurer Chalmers best wishes wrestling with Korea's Hanhwa Ocean's bid to buy more of Aussie shipbuilder Austal in the face of Japanese industrial concerns around the Mogami frigates given Austal's role. They end with the fantastic news that the US military cutting its Army helicopter forces will release 6,500 trained recruits for Australia's new purchase of (oops) US helicopters, for our leading edge Army......Great to see the 5 Eyes people pipeline opening wide.

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