Stay ConnectedThis podcast series features a lively debate between two of Barclays’ Research analysts taking opposing viewpoints on timely topics of importance to economies and businesses around the globe.
By hearing arguments and insights on both sides, we hope you will come away with a greater understanding of the economic implications of sometimes polarizing issues. For more insights from our experts: https://www.ib.barclays
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Interest rate cuts, reduced down-payment requirements for mortgages and media reports of the re-capitalisation of banks – are just a handful of the policy changes the Chinese government announced in its recent stimulus package to get the $18trn economy moving.
Chinese financial markets have initially reacted positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong Stock exchange soaring on the news. And with additional measures expected, markets seem poised to benefit from further momentum.
In episode 65 of The Flip Side, Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Head of Asia Cross-Asset Strategy Kaan Singh discuss the stimulus policies and consider whether they are large enough to reinvigorate China’s economy or simply ‘window dressing’ tactics.
Recent volatility in global financial markets has left analysts and investors speculating whether it is being driven by technical factors or more fundamental shifts indicating a looming US recession.
Inflation, rising US unemployment and heightened geopolitical tensions are considered major catalysts for the volatility. The unease in markets was exacerbated by the unwind of the yen carry trade and swirling questions about the Magnificent 7 tech companies’ pace of AI adoption.
In episode 64 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha discuss recent financial market dynamics and debate the re-emergence of a hard landing for the US economy.
Corporate bond and loan markets have traditionally been rigid when compared to equity markets, characterised by low liquidity, low trading volumes and higher transaction costs. In recent years, the explosion of credit ETFs and the growth of private credit markets has meant all that is changing, causing what our Research analysts call the ‘equitification’ of credit.
In episode 63 of The Flip Side Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Head of Thematic Fixed Income Research Zornitsa Todorova debate the upsides and downsides of this emerging trend and which investors stand to benefit.
Read more on the Five Forces Reshaping Fixed Income Markets.
US carbon emissions are down c.20% from their peak over the past 20 years, thanks primarily to efficiency gains, such as increased miles per gallon for cars, switching to LED lights and moving towards high-efficiency boilers.
Further emission reductions will require more changes from consumers on a number of fronts, such as switching from fossil fuels to electricity for cars, home heating, and so on.
The US government is trying to influence behaviours through a range of subsidies and incentives. Is pushing on all fronts the best approach, or should efforts concentrate on one big issue that can have an outsized impact over the long term?
In episode 62 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli debates that question with Will Thompson from our Sustainable and Thematic Investing Research team.
Inflation in the US peaked at around 9% in 2022, and by January 2024, CPI inflation had fallen to 3.1%. This dramatic reduction was achieved without triggering a widely expected recession. Does the Fed’s interest rate hiking cycle deserve credit for this correction, or were other market forces responsible for the generally positive economic outcome?
In episode 61 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli debates that question with Chief US Economist Marc Giannoni, considering how factors such as market expectations, post-pandemic economic realities, shifts in labour force, and housing stock availability drove cooling alongside – or instead of – the Fed’s monetary policy.
In episode 60 of The Flip Side, Hiral Patel, Head of Sustainable & Thematic Research, talks to Christian Keller, Head of Economics Research, about the extent to which and pace at which AI could boost productivity levels globally. They explore the potential costs and benefits to businesses and societies, as well as the range of public policy changes related to education, taxation, antitrust and more that may be required if generative AI is to truly become a GPT.
Warnings that rising US national debt levels are reaching a crisis point have waxed and waned for decades. In Flip Side podcast, our analysts discuss urgent questions about whether the current US government debt is sustainable.
Stock prices across the developed world are generally higher this year, after falling sharply in 2022. Inflation and the pace of interest rate hikes have slowed. Yet equity markets have proven volatile in recent months, with big positive and negative swings that have not always correlated with the latest economic news. In episode 58 of The Flip Side, Jeff Meli, Global Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, take a deeper look at the data and discuss what is behind the apparent disconnect between equity markets and the economy.
US housing has been a hot topic since the onset of COVID, with a surge in both home buying and prices. But the housing market may be set for a major correction. Jeff Meli, Global Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, unpack what's next for the sector, and debate whether the US housing market is set for a major correction.
Electric vehicles are touted as a way to help reduce CO2 emissions, but can power grids cope with the corresponding electricity demand? Listen to Barclays Research analysts debate the challenges.
In episode 55 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Chief US Economist Marc Giannoni discuss the warning signs for a potential US recession and whether it can be avoided or if a new cycle is already taking shape.
The recent banking turmoil has exposed a longer-term challenge for the sector: the very nature of systemic risk is changing as runs on deposits become easier. Depositors can access their money quickly and easily through advanced digital tools, and social media platforms allow for influence and opinion to spread broadly at pace. In episode 54 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Senior Credit Analyst covering financial institutions Peter Troisi look back at the root causes of the recent banking crisis and debate the implications and potential fallout yet to come.
At Barclays’ inaugural ESG Conference in New York City, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Senior Energy Research Analyst Lydia Rainforth recorded Episode 53 of The Flip Side live, debating whether ESG investing is helping or hindering the energy transition.
Is the US economy on-track for inflation to fall back in line with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target by the end of 2023? Our research analysts share their views on inflation in the latest episode of The Flip Side.
Many forecasters, including our own economists, are expecting a US recession in 2023, driven by the rapid and ongoing hiking cycle initiated by the US Federal Reserve as it attempts to get a grip on persistently high inflation. As the US economy slows, with housing sales down 30-35% from their peak and increasing reports of layoffs, some are questioning whether the record-setting pace of hikes is a policy mistake that will make a recession inevitable. In episode 51 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha debate what’s ahead for the US economy into next year.
Barclays Research is forecasting recessions in the US, the UK and Europe, driven in part by high energy prices. Will pressure from high energy costs continue to weigh on economic activity or will it ebb as growth slows?
After the new UK government’s ‘mini-budget’ was announced, select UK markets slumped. In episode 49 of The Flip Side, Barclays Research analysts debate whether new fiscal policies or other market forces were the trigger.
ESG investors face rising challenges to implement effective strategies due to increasing complexity and a lack of uniform standards. Our Research analysts debate how ESG investing may evolve in episode 48 of The Flip Side.
Global economies are facing volatility and uncertainty after nearly 30 years of relative stability. Our analysts debate whether it's the end of an economic era.
Consumer spending has been a bright spot amidst a range of shocks to the economy, but will they continue to spend? Our analysts debate.
Given the rapid growth of the private credit market, Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate the tradeoffs issuers and investors may face and whether the benefits outweigh the risks for both - and the wider economy.
Government, social and corporate forces are converging to redefine corporate purpose. Listen to Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Professor James C. Spindler discuss the case for and against stakeholder capitalism.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has far-reaching implications for markets and economies. Our Research analysts debate whether a global recession is among them.
January was a volatile month for US equities. In this episode, our Research analysts debate whether this trend will persist in the weeks and months ahead.
The US Federal Reserve recently turned hawkish on inflation. Our Research analysts debate whether economic conditions justify the shift.
Oral anti-viral COVID-19 treatments have performed well in clinical trials, and approval for use is expected soon. What does this mean for the global economy?
Economists view a carbon tax as an effective solution to lower emissions, yet the United States has not implemented one. Has the time come? Jeff Meli and MIT Professor Deborah J. Lucas discuss.
The US Congress is negotiating a multi-trillion dollar spending bill to invest huge sums in human infrastructure. But will doing so deliver economic returns?
Regulatory changes in China are affecting industries and global markets. Research analysts Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Avanti Save debate the policies’ merits and motivations.
Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate whether near record high corporate bond valuations have come unmoored from market fundamentals.
Research analysts Jeff Meli and Ajay Rajadhyaksha debate whether the recent spike in US inflation data is a temporary blip or poses a sustained threat.
Research analysts Jeff Meli and Jonathan Millar debate the necessity and merits of the US administration’s proposed $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan.
Research analysts Jeff Meli and Ajay Rajadhyaksha debate which financial assets are becoming bubbles that investors should be wary of now.
Jeff Meli and Ryan Preclaw debate the long-term implications of recent retail trading on the stock market, ranging from portfolio strategies to regulation.
As 2020 comes to a close, Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Christian Keller debate about the prospects for short- and long-term economic growth post-COVID.
In the latest episode of The Flip Side, Head of Research, Jeff Meli, and Head of Macro Research, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, discuss whether factors such as the distribution of the recovery to date, the appetite for increasing national debt and the looming possibility of a vaccine warrant further fiscal stimulus to bolster economic recovery in the US.
Head of Research Jeff Meli and MIT Finance Professor Deborah Lucas debate whether the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are necessary for a smoothly functioning US mortgage market.
The pandemic has highlighted numerous risks to living and working in megacities around the world and now calls into question whether the long-term trend toward urbanization will be reversed. Should this trend come to fruition, there could be profound effects not just on corporate real estate, but on residential too, as the relationship between workers and their office locations is reconsidered.
Jeff Meli and Zoso Davies debate whether the lack of uniformity in ESG scoring is limiting the impact that investors intend to have in transforming companies’ operations to be more sustainable and improving societal outcomes.
Barclays Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Global Head of Economics Research Christian Keller debate the longer term, lasting effects of the pandemic on the global economy - from de-globalisation, to mobility and agglomeration and the rising dominance of market power in some industries. For more insights: barclays.com/ib
Special guest economist Professor Robert Shiller joins Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli to debate whether equity markets are overvalued and what role long-term investing should play during a crisis. For more insights: barclays.com/ib
Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli and Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy Marvin Barth debate whether to expect inflation or deflation in the recovery period after lockdowns are lifted. For more insights from our experts: barclays.com/ib
Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli and Head of Economics Research Christian Keller debate between about how long it may take for government interventions to be effective in restarting the global economic engine.
Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate about whether the credit rally will last and how effective the US government's support facilities will be. For more insights from our experts: barclays.com/ib.
Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli and Chief US Economist Michael Gapen discuss the most important provisions of the CARES Act and debate whether the plan will provide enough near-term stimulus to individuals, small businesses and large corporations to save the US economy. For more insights from our experts: barclays.com/ib
Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate whether recent stresses in short-dated credit markets, in conjunction with severe downgrades of companies from investment grade to high yield, could cause credit markets to crack? For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays Head of Macro Research, debate to what extent the economic risks posed by the coronavirus will affect global markets and whether the disruption will be enough to cause a global recession. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research, and Michael Gapen, Barclays Head of US Economics Research, debate the degree to which new risks – the issues at Boeing with the 737 Max, the rise of the Novel Coronavirus and the inherent uncertainty of the US presidential nomination process – may affect the US growth outlook and business confidence. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Marvin Barth, Head of FX & EM Marco Research, and Fabrice Montagné, Chief UK Economist, debate whether a weakened global economy, geopolitical shifts, and the UK’s technological prowess are combining to offer a more favorable backdrop for Brexit negotiations ahead. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays Head of Macro Research, debate whether enhanced regulation of the banking system contributed to volatility in the repo market. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
In an effort to spur growth, central banks in Europe and Japan have kept interest rates negative for years. Barclays analysts Jeff Meli and Zoso Davies debate whether or not this monetary policy is working. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research, and Ben Theurer, Barclays Head of Latin American Equity Research and Americas Agribusiness analyst, debate whether alternative meat will be a real game changer for the food and meat industries, or just another fringe product that will fade over time. The analysts also weigh in on factors driving the adoption of alternative meat products, such as taste, health benefits and environmental impact. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Global oil demand currently stands at an all-time high. Barclays Research analysts debate whether innovation and regulation can transition the world to a low carbon economy quickly enough to stem climate change. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli and Chief US Economist Michael Gapen debate the merits of the Fed's July 2019 rate cut on the latest episode of The Flip Side. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Technology has been a catalyst of globalisation in many emerging market economies. But could those tech advances now threaten EM development & related investment strategies? Barclays Research analysts Marvin Barth and Andreas Kolbe debate. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Trade tensions between the US & China continue to rise. Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Ajay Rajadhyaksha debate what’s at stake on this episode of The Flip Side. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Large technology companies like FAANG have amassed market share in the retail and media sectors. Is their dominance enhancing or stifling competition? Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Jim Martin debate. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Since 2000, fewer and fewer companies have come to control larger and larger shares of the market in a wide variety of industries. In fact, 75% of US industries have experienced a rise in concentration over that period. What does that mean for competition across the economy and in individual sectors, and is it detrimental or beneficial to the economy? For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Has a decade of growth in the US corporate credit market ballooned to the point of bursting? Brad Rogoff and Shobhit Gupta debate what factors underlie the next potential credit market downturn.
At the end of 2017, US President Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into law. For corporations, this meant a significant reduction in the tax rate from 35% to 21%, which lawmakers claimed would boost business investment domestically, bring cash held overseas back to the US and create jobs. The question is, did the tax cut achieve all it set out to, and as a result stimulate the US economy? For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
In the fifth episode of The Flip Side podcast series, Marvin Barth, Barclays Head of FX and Emerging Markets Macro Research, sits down with Fabrice Montagné, Barclays Chief UK Economist, to debate how Brexit represents de-globalisation in Europe, assess where Brexit might lead and discuss what lessons the UK's exit from the EU might offer for other countries grappling with similar phenomenon. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
The yield curve has been a relevant signal of past impending recessions. But is it still an adequate predictor today? Our Research analysts debate whether investors should continue to rely on this market indicator.
Some emerging market assets have plummeted in 2018. Are we headed toward a crisis that could undo ten years of economic expansion? Barclays Research analysts debate whether EM volatility could tip the developed world into recession. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
Ten years after the financial crisis, unemployment has reached record lows in many global economies, which means we should have seen wage growth increase by now. But that hasn’t been the case. So, what’s the holdup? And what does this mean for the short- and long-term future of the economy? In this episode of The Flip Side, Jeff Meli, Co-Head of Research, sits down with Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Head of Macro Research, to debate the reasons behind this wage stagnation anomaly.
Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research sits down with Marvin Barth, Head of FX and Emerging Markets Macro Research, to debate some of the factors contributing to, and possibly resulting from, the state of global trade conflict. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib
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