The Downballot

Tim Walz is the ultimate downballot guy Aug 08, 2024

Tim Walz may be on the national ticket, but he's the ultimate downballot guy, so we've got to talk all about him on this week's episode of "The Downballot." We recount Walz's extensive electoral career, starting with his upset win for Congress as a "Fighting Dem" during the 2006 wave that began a streak of impressive overperformances continuing through his two bids for governor. We also explain exactly how Walz would be replaced if he's elected VP—and how his replacement would be replaced, and how that person would be replaced. Nothing is too weedy for us!

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's meaty primary night, which set the table for a host of competitive November elections and set some other candidates on a glide path to victory. The Davids discuss why the top of the ticket will likely determine the fate of Michigan's open Senate race; why candidate quality—and not outside money—was the most important factor in Rep. Cori Bush's defeat; and why Washington's top-two primary system should be banished from the face of the earth.

Primary season roars back to life Aug 01, 2024

Primary season is back with a vengeance! Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer joins co-hosts David Nir and David Beard on this week's episode of "The Downballot" to recap Tuesday's action and preview a whole host of major races in the month ahead.

The trio discusses why Democrats are upbeat about their chances to take charge of Arizona's largest county after this week's primaries—and what it could mean if the MAGA brigades instead seize control of election administration. Also on the docket: under-the-radar GOP ballot measures in Wisconsin designed to strip the Democratic governor of key powers; Republicans in Alaska struggling to adapt to the reality of ranked-choice voting; and a chance for Florida Democrats to stick their thumb in Ron DeSantis' eye.

We finally went there! Jul 25, 2024

We've strived mightily to stick to down-ticket elections since launching our show more than two years ago, but the universe finally forced us to discuss the presidential race on this week's episode of "The Downballot"! But it's for a good reason: The new surge in Democratic enthusiasm for the top of the ticket is likely to have a salutary effect further down the ballot. And the events of the last few weeks are a reminder, as host David Nir and guest host Joe Sudbay say, that things can change awfully fast and we all need to remain humble.

But have no fear: We haven't forgotten our true calling! Our guest this week is Inside Elections publisher Nathan Gonzales, who is as devoted to downballot races as anyone. Gonzales tells us how the world of election analysis has changed over the last two decades and explains how his publication's widely followed race ratings are actually put together. He also talks about Inside Elections' efforts to fill a major data gap by polling key House races—and even breaks a little news about where they'll be polling next!

Give up on 2024? Vote Save America says hell no! Jul 18, 2024

Unnamed "senior Democrats" are at it again, saying they're "resigned" to losing in November. On this week's episode of "The Downballot," host David Nir and guest host Joe Sudbay go hog-wild on the defeatists, explaining why humility and fortitude must be the order of the day. They also delve into polling data showing that the top of the ticket is not destiny: Regardless of what happens in the race for the White House, you don't need to be huffing hopium to believe that Democrats are still very much in the game further down the ballot.

And no one believes that more than our guest this week. Shaniqua McClendon runs Vote Save America, the activism arm of the Pod Save America network, which is dedicated to helping progressives across the country get involved at all levels. McClendon explains how the Pod Save crew leverages its reach to engage grassroots activists, and why VSA is devoted to ensuring small donors get the biggest bang for their buck. She also tells us about some of her top races and how listeners can get involved at votesaveamerica.com.

The other 499,999 elections Jul 11, 2024

There are half a million elected offices in the United States, and the presidency is just one of them. This week on "The Downballot," co-hosts David Nir and David Beard revisit why they started the show in the first place: to cast a spotlight on those other 499,999 races. If you're a progressive feeling understandably depressed and/or scared right now, it's more important than ever to remember we can still have a huge impact further down the ticket—and there's lots of reason to think that even if Democrats lose the White House, they can score major victories elsewhere. And no matter what, the more seats we win, the firmer our bulwark against fascism.

Indeed, two of America's most important allies showed us just that over the past week. The Davids recap monumental elections in the United Kingdom and France that saw voters across the spectrum reject the far right. The results, though, look very different. The U.K. just ushered in a massive majority for the center-left Labour Party for the first time in 14 years, while France's parliament is now split between three major blocs that themselves have internal divisions. What comes next is anyone's guess, but we can at least say that extremism and xenophobia failed to carry the day.

French snap elections preview Jun 27, 2024

Momentous elections are taking place in just days in France, so we've brought Bolts editor-in-chief Daniel Nichanian on this week's episode of "The Downballot" to give us the complete picture. Nichanian deciphers President Emmanuel Macron's opaque rationale for calling snap elections despite his party's grim standing in the polls and explains why, for the first time ever, the longstanding firewall between the center-right and the far right has finally collapsed—and could usher in the most extreme government that America's oldest ally has seen since the Vichy regime.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also give due attention to elections on this side of the Atlantic, with a rundown of Tuesday's primaries. They discuss why it's a mistake to conclude that AIPAC's massive spending was the chief driver of Jamaal Bowman's fall, then delve into the not one, not two, but three different GOP primaries that saw Trump-backed candidates all lose.

To all of our loyal listeners, "The Downballot" will be taking off next week for the Fourth of July, but we'll be back in two weeks' time with a new episode!

Freedom Caucus chair loses in a squeaker Jun 20, 2024

The entire GOP from Trump on down was gunning for the head of the House Freedom Caucus on Tuesday night—and they succeeded, but only barely. We're recapping the latest primaries on this week's episode of "The Downballot," starting with Virginia Rep. Bob Good's near-escape from political doom. We've also got a compelling Democratic primary in NoVa, where a retiring congresswoman's blessing proved critical, and a brewing rumble in a swing district that will test a first-time Democratic candidate with immense fundraising prowess but limited experience on the campaign trail.

A crazy Dem special election overperformance Jun 13, 2024

Holy moly! Ohio Democrats just turned in an astounding special election performance on Tuesday night—in a conservative rural district they had no reason to think would be favorable in any way. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss what it means on this week's episode of "The Downballot," including why it's a bad idea to ignore the warning signs that special elections writ large are flashing for Republicans.

We also recap some wild GOP primaries in South Carolina and explain why Democrats should not challenge a successful ballot measure in North Dakota that would bar octogenarians from serving in Congress.

Our guest this week is Pete Maysmith, who runs political campaigns for the League of Conservation Voters, one of the leading environmental organizations in the country. Maysmith tells us about the top environmental issues that motivate voters—and why LCV is also happy to highlight other topics, like the cost of insulin, if it'll help climate champions win. He also zooms in on several of LCV's key target races this fall and explains how addressing climate change can be a winning issue even on red turf.

Jumbo June primary preview Jun 06, 2024

Whoa mama! June is chock-full of juicy primaries, so we've brought Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer on this week's episode of "The Downballot" to give us the lay of the land. In South Carolina, we've got not one but two GOP primaries marked by accusations of infidelity on the part of Republican incumbents, while North Dakota will vote on a ballot measure that could spark a legal upheaval and pave the way for congressional term limits. And in Colorado, of course, we've got Lauren Boebert's switcheroo, but there's so much more, so tune in!

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday night's primaries, which saw a Trump-endorsed candidate lose in New Jersey thanks to the death rattle of the "county line" system. In Iowa, meanwhile, a Republican congresswoman had her own near-death experience despite outspending her challenger 100-to-1. And in New Mexico, progressives ousted several reactionary Democratic incumbents in the legislature, opening the door to more progressive legislation next year.

The biggest supreme court races of 2024 May 30, 2024

It's right there in the name of the show, so yeah, of course we're gonna talk about downballot races on this week's episode of "The Downballot"! Specifically, we drill down into the top contests for attorney general and state supreme court taking place all across the country this year. Democrats and liberals are playing defense in Montana, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, but they have the chance to make gains in many states, including Michigan, Arizona, Ohio, and even Texas.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's runoffs in the Lone Star State, where a GOP congressman barely hung on against an odious "gunfluencer." They also dissect a new Supreme Court ruling out of South Carolina that all but scraps a key weapon Black voters have used to attack gerrymandering. And they preview New Jersey's first primaries in a post-"county line" world.

UK snap election! May 23, 2024

We're heading across the pond for this week's episode of "The Downballot" after the UK just announced it would hold snap elections—on July 4, no less. Co-host David Beard gives us Yanks a full run-down, including how the elections will work, what the polls are predicting, and what Labour plans to do if it finally ends 14 years of Conservative rule. We also take detours into Scotland and Rwanda (believe it or not) and bear down on a small far-right party that could cost the Tories dearly.

But don't worry, we haven't forgotten about the Stars and Stripes! We also recap some of Tuesday's top election results, including one Democratic primary in Oregon that has D.C. Democrats breathing a sigh of relief. And we circle back to several big stories that we've covered recently, including a huge triumph for Missouri Democrats in the fight to protect direct democracy and restore abortion rights.

Missouri Dems filibuster GOP into submission May 16, 2024

Democrats may be in the minority in the Missouri Senate, but you wouldn't know it after they staged an epic filibuster that just forced Republicans to abandon a cynical ploy to undermine direct democracy and thwart abortion rights.

Joining us on "The Downballot" this week is state Sen. Lauren Arthur, one of the participants in Democrats' record-breaking legislative marathon. Arthur breaks down the GOP's scheme to con voters into making it harder to amend the state constitution and explains how Democrats hung together through a 50-hour filibuster to protect cherished civil rights.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's primaries, punctuated by Angela Alsobrooks' victory in the Democratic primary for Maryland's open Senate seat in the face of a $60 million onslaught. The Davids also highlight a big flip in Alaska, where a Democratic-backed independent is on course to unseat Anchorage's far-right mayor once final votes are tallied.

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The GOP Chaos Caucus grows larger May 09, 2024

One key outcome of Tuesday's primaries in Indiana: House Republican leaders will have even more implacable crazies to contend with next year, and we're surveying the damage on this week's episode of "The Downballot." Marlin Stutzman, a tea party OG who helped push out John Boehner, narrowly won the Republican nod to reclaim his old seat while the erratic Victoria Spartz (who voted to oust Mike Johnson while we were recording) successfully managed to "un-retire" more than a year after saying she wouldn't seek another term. Expect even more "GOP in Disarray" headlines come 2025!

We also have an in-depth discussion with Mark Hugo Lopez, the director of race and ethnicity research at Pew Research Center, about his studies of Latinos in America. Whereas the fastest-growing Latino group was once Mexicans, now it's Venezuelans. And while two-thirds of Latinos identified as Catholic not long ago, now less than half do—while the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated are soaring. Lopez zeroes in on the drop in support for Joe Biden among young Latino voters in particular but observes that it's still early: Just 25% of Latino adults tell Pew they're paying attention to the election. The show notes cannot do this conversation justice!

A Howard Dean comeback? YEEAARRGGHH!! May 02, 2024

A Howard Dean comeback!? We couldn't believe it either, but the former Vermont governor (and one-time presidential primary frontrunner) says he's thinking about a bid for his old job, so we're strolling down memory lane on this week's episode of "The Downballot." The 75-year-old Dean would give Democrats a credible—and very recognizable—opponent for Republican Gov. Phil Scott, who currently lacks one. We gotta admit, we kinda like the idea!

We're also talking primary previews with Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer, who gives us the scoop on some of the top contests coming up this month. Among the races: the Republican congresswoman in Indiana who met bitter resistance when she tried to un-retire; the major battle in Maryland between a self-funder and the establishment; the most disgustingly transphobic GOP primary we've ever seen, down in West Virginia; and a "gun influencer" who could unseat a sitting Republican congressman in Texas.

The AZ GOP's plan to retroactively erase an election Apr 25, 2024

Here's one way to avoid dealing with election results you don't like: just wipe them from the record books. It's not Orwell—it's Arizona, and we're talking all about it on this week's episode of "The Downballot." This fall, voters have the chance to deny new terms to two conservative Supreme Court justices, but a Republican amendment would retroactively declare those elections null and void—and all but eliminate the system Arizona has used to evaluate judges for 50 years. We're going to guess voters won't like this one bit … if it even makes it to the ballot in the first place.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap this week's primaries in Pennsylvania, where voters just chose nominees in the high-profile contest for attorney general and in several key House races across the state. But there's also some big news that has scrambled next year's elections in Virginia, with a prominent candidate dropping his bid for governor to instead seek the number two slot.

Dems are crushing the GOP in fundraising—again Apr 18, 2024

It's an old story, but it never gets old: Democrats just whooped Republicans in fundraising—again. This week on "The Downballot" podcast, we're running through some of the most eye-popping numbers Democrats hauled in during the first quarter of the year (Sherrod Brown! Jon Tester! Colin Allred!) and the comparatively weak performances we're seeing from Republicans almost across the board. The GOP hopes to make up the gap by relying on self-funders, but a campaign without a strong fundraising network can be dangerously hollow.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap the week's electoral action, starting with victories in a pair of special elections in Michigan that allowed Democrats to reclaim their majority in the state House, plus a noteworthy House runoff in Alabama that could lead to a Black Democrat representing Mobile for the first time since Reconstruction.

The Davids also explain why a surprise retirement from the Wisconsin Supreme Court means progressives need to be on guard against a top-two lockout in yet another critical battle for control of the court. And finally, there's the astonishing three-way House race in California that could soon turn into a humdrum two-way affair thanks to an unexpected recount.

The craziest effing story of the year (so far) Apr 11, 2024

It's only April, but the Washington Post's new report on GOP golden boy Tim Sheehy is a strong contender for the craziest political story of the year. On this week's episode of "The Downballot," co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dissect the countless contradictions in Sheehy's tales about a bullet wound that he either received in Afghanistan or in a national park three years later. The Davids also explain why the Arizona Supreme Court's appalling new ruling banning nearly all abortions could lead to two conservative justices losing their seats this fall.

Our guest this week is Sondra Goldschein, who runs the Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy, an organization dedicated to improving America's badly lagging "care infrastructure." Goldschein explains how issues like paid medical leave laws and greater access to childcare affect an enormous swath of the electorate—and why they're closely tied to voters' perceptions of their economic fortunes. She also highlights candidates her group is working to elect to make these policies a reality.

The stakes for Florida's abortion amendment just got higher Apr 04, 2024

Florida's Supreme Court just greenlit a ballot measure to enshrine abortion in the state constitution—and simultaneously allowed the GOP's new six-week abortion ban to become law. That makes the already-high stakes for this amendment even higher, as we discuss on this week's episode of The Downballot. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also talk about the death of New Jersey's infamous "county line" and how the GOP managed to pick yet another whackjob candidate for yet another congressional special election.

Our guest this week is Daria Dawson, the executive director of America Votes, an organization that forms a crucial piece of infrastructure for the progressive moment. As Dawson explains, America Votes plays the role of "traffic cop" to ensure that its 400 partners don't duplicate each other's work—and that the right groups communicate with the right voters. She also emphasizes that Democratic candidates need to affirmatively tie themselves to ballot measures protecting abortion rights and says that voting rights are key to differentiating between the parties when talking to voters.

The GOP should be terrified after Alabama's landslide Mar 28, 2024

Another special election just delivered still more bad news for the GOP, but Democrat Marilyn Lands', well, landslide should really have Republicans quaking. As we explain on this week's episode of The Downballot, this was the first test of in vitro fertilization at the ballot box since the Alabama Supreme Court's ruling that imperiled the procedure, and Republicans failed spectacularly—with dire implications for November.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also examine the fallout from Tammy Murphy's shock decision to abandon her Senate bid and why Andy Kim's campaign has dealt a major blow to New Jersey's political machine. The Davids then explore whether the seemingly impossible might come to pass: Could Democrats take back control of the House before Election Day? Whatever the odds, Democrats need to be ready.

Our guest this week is Lauren Baer, a 2018 congressional candidate in Florida who now runs Arena, an organization dedicated to supporting the next generation of campaign staff. Baer tells us about her group's work to train and place staff with campaigns, including how they help staffers weather the dry "shoulder season" between election cycles. She also warns about the huge GOP advantage in funding their talent pipeline and explains how Democrats can make up this crucial gap in campaign infrastructure.

Why we need to elect more moms Mar 21, 2024

One of the most under-represented groups in elective office is also one of the least discussed: moms, especially mothers of young children. On this week's episode of "The Downballot," we're talking with Liuba Grechen Shirley, the founder of Vote Mama, an organization devoted to electing progressive moms at all levels of the ballot.

Grechen Shirley describes her groundbreaking success in getting the FEC to allow her to use campaign funds for childcare when she ran for Congress on Long Island in 2018 and her subsequent efforts to support candidates like her. She explains how electing more mothers will mean more pro-family policies and tells us about some of her top candidates running this fall.

Co-host David Nir and guest co-host Joe Sudbay also recap Tuesday's key primaries in Ohio and Illinois, including the blowout GOP Senate primary in the Buckeye State whose results will make both Donald Trump and Democrats happy. They also discuss an important new ruling from the Montana Supreme Court, which just smacked down an attempt by the state's Republican attorney general to keep an abortion rights amendment off the November ballot.

After abortion, conservatives are coming for recreational sex Mar 14, 2024

The ripple effects of the Dobbs decision are impacting not only the right to an abortion but also abortion funding, IVF, and even recreational sex. Joining us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" is Grace Panetta, a political reporter at The 19th who has closely covered the electoral consequences of this ever-widening set of issues. Panetta highlights key races this year where reproductive rights will take center stage, including ballot initiatives in multiple states, efforts to repeal bans on public funding of abortions, and an upcoming special election in Alabama, the state that just thrust IVF into the limelight.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss Ken Buck's highly entertaining resignation, which is making life way more difficult for both Mike Johnson and Lauren Boebert. They then preview next week's primaries in Illinois and Ohio, which will, among other things, determine which Republican will take on one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators up this year, Sherrod Brown.

Far-right Republicans dominate Tuesday's primaries Mar 07, 2024

We're recapping all of Tuesday's primary night action on this week's episode of "The Downballot"! Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard go coast-to-coast, setting the table in Texas' Senate race and picking apart the bloodbath in the state House. Then it's on to North Carolina, where GOP extremists dominated at all levels of the ballot—and where one notorious election fraudster is now on his way to Congress. We wrap with California, whose troublesome top-two primary system made its quirks felt in a whole bunch of races, from Senate on down.

Our big fat Super Tuesday primary preview Feb 29, 2024

The first downballot primaries of 2024 are here! We're previewing some of Tuesday's biggest races on this week's episode of "The Downballot" with Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer. Singer highlights major elections in four states, including the battle for second place in California's Senate contest; whether Democrats will avoid a lockout in a critical California House district; if the worst Republican election fraudster in recent years will successfully stage a comeback in North Carolina; and how Alabama's new map will affect not one but two House races.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also shake their heads in dismay at New York Democrats, who just unilaterally disarmed in the face of extreme GOP gerrymandering nationwide by passing a new congressional map that barely makes any changes to the status quo. The Davids emphasize that as long as Republicans keep blocking Democratic efforts to ban gerrymandering, Democrats have no choice but to fight fire with fire. Yet in New York, they grabbed the fire extinguisher.

How Democrats can win on the economy Feb 22, 2024

The economy seems to be going great, but lots of voters still say they aren't feeling it. So how should Democrats deal with this conundrum? On this week's episode of "The Downballot," communications consultant Anat Shenker-Osorio tells us that the first step is to reframe the debate, focusing not on "the economy"—an institution many feel is unjust—but rather on voters' economic well-being. Shenker-Osorio advises Democrats to run on a populist message that emphasizes specifics, like delivering tangible kitchen-table economic benefits and protecting personal liberties, including the right to an abortion.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also investigate the new candidacy of rich guy Eric Hovde, the latest in a long line of GOP Senate candidates who have weak ties to the states they want to represent. Then it's on to redistricting news in two states: Wisconsin, which will have fair legislative maps for the first time in ages, and New York, where Democrats are poised to nuke a new congressional map that no one seems to like.

Transcript to come.

Dems dominate in huge special election flip Feb 15, 2024

Ohhhhh yeah! Democrats kicked ass and then some in Tuesday's special election in New York, so of course we're talking all about it on this week's episode of "The Downballot." Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain how Tom Suozzi's win affects the math for Democrats' plan to take back the House, then dive into the seemingly bottomless list of excuses Republicans have been making to handwave their defeat away. The bottom line: Suozzi effectively neutralized attacks on immigration—and abortion is still a huge loser for the GOP.

The Davids then chat with Alex Roarty, a politics reporter at NOTUS, a new nonprofit newsroom promoting a new model not just for covering news but for training the next generation of reporters. Roarty tells us how his work has changed since coming over from the for-profit world and also shares his thoughts on the down-ticket races he's watching most closely this year, including bellwether contests in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Transcript to come.

Fighting disinformation in Latino media Feb 08, 2024

Disinformation is a growing problem in American politics, but combating it in Latino media poses its own special challenges. Joining us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" is Roberta Braga, founder of the Digital Democracy Institute of the Americas, a new organization devoted to tackling disinformation and building resiliency in Latino communities. Braga explains how disinformation transcends borders but also creates opportunities for people in the U.S. to import new solutions from Latin America. She also underscores the importance of fielding Latino candidates and their unique ability to address the issue.

In our Weekly Hits segment, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard hit a broad array of stories, including why a top California Democrat is seeking to pick his opponent for the general election; a truly bonkers un-retirement in Indiana; a troubling story sparked by an AI-generated image of a Democratic congressman in Illinois; and why a whole bunch of Oregon Republicans won't be allowed to seek reelection even though they very much want to.

Transcript to come.

Why more women than ever are running for office Feb 01, 2024

EMILY's List has been devoted to electing pro-choice Democratic women for 40 years, a mission that's grown only more critical since the fall of Roe. Joining us on "The Downballot" this week is Christina Reynolds, one of EMILY's top officials, to tell us about how her organization recruits, supports, and advises women candidates at all levels of the ballot nationwide. Reynolds explains the unique challenges women face, from a lack of fundraising networks to judgments about their qualifications that never seem to stick to men. She tells us how Dobbs has—and hasn't—changed campaigning for EMILY's endorsees and spotlights a wide range of key races the group is involved in this year.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the rollout of the DCCC's first "Red to Blue" list this year, highlighting the most promising Democratic pickup opportunities in the House. While the D-Trip is focused on general elections, the Davids explain why the committee has no choice but to get involved in a California primary thanks to the state's verkakte election rules. And finally, they tear into the Tennessee GOP for a ridiculous set of rule changes designed solely to protect a scandal-plagued incumbent—changes that will probably bite them in the ass before long.

Transcript to come.

The inside story on winning the Wisconsin Supreme Court Jan 25, 2024

We're going deep inside last year's momentous progressive victory in the battle for control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court on this week's episode of "The Downballot," where we're joined by Alejandro Verdin, who managed Judge Janet Protasiewicz's triumphant campaign. Verdin explains how he assembled a team that took the little-known Protasiewicz from third place in the polls to a runaway first-place finish in the primary and then on to a landslide win in the general election.

Verdin tells us why Protasiewicz broke with the staid traditions of campaigning for judicial office and was so outspoken on the issues that voters cared about—particularly gerrymandering and abortion. Plus: the never-before-revealed easter egg trolling their conservative opponent that the campaign inserted into their ads.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's elections in New Hampshire—no, not those elections. We're talking about two special elections for the state House, of course! Then it's on to Louisiana, where the Davids explain how the state's unique all-party primaries will come to a (partial) end, and how a Republican congressman might get revenge on his party for making him walk the plank in redistricting.

Transcript to come.

Campaigns by train: The history of whistle-stop tours Jan 18, 2024

Is there anything more iconic in American politics than the whistle-stop tour? Author Edward Segal joins us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" to discuss his new book unearthing the storied history of campaigning by train. Segal takes us through nearly two centuries of rail campaigns, from early pioneers like Abraham Lincoln to the great popularizer of whistle-stop touring William Jennings Bryan all the way up to "Amtrak Joe" Biden. Along the way, learn how politicians' trains were actually deployed, lessons for today's campaigners, and the surprising era Segal identifies as the heyday for these tours.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive deep into Democrat Tom Keen's huge special election victory in Florida on Tuesday night, including why the result was a purely self-inflicted wound for Ron DeSantis and how it'll help Sunshine State Democrats get their mojo back. The Davids then dissect the many twists and turns in the court-ordered redistricting process that's now underway in Louisiana, where the state's new GOP governor seems intent on punishing a political enemy and rewarding a friend—only the former is a Republican and the latter a Democrat!

Transcript to come.

Our guide to 2024's top races Jan 11, 2024

We've got so, so many elections coming up in 2024, and dammit, we're going to cover them all! On this week's episode of "The Downballot," co-hosts David Nir and David Beard get the year started with an overview of the battleground for [deep breath] the Senate, the House, governorships, state legislatures, and state supreme courts. Consider this your audio cheat sheet for November's top races, but don't worry, we'll be covering plenty more as the cycle unfolds.

The Davids also discuss the recent string of House GOP retirements—both what they say about the state of the Republican caucus and what they mean for 2024. Then there's a new effort by activists in Ohio to place a measure on the ballot that would crap down on Republican voter suppression by enacting extensive protections for the right to vote. And finally, we dive into the latest GOP gerrymanders in Georgia, which have pushed two Black Democratic women into running for the same seat.

Transcript can be found here.

How Dems track all the dumb sh*t Republicans say Jan 04, 2024

Republicans have an unflagging ability to lose elections by saying outrageous crap, but someone has to record it all—and put it on blast. That someone is the Democratic opposition research shop American Bridge, which is why we're talking to the organization's president, Pat Dennis, on this week's episode of The Downballot. Dennis tells us how the not-so-dark art of "oppo" works, explaining how it's been refined over the years to better allow Democrats to target Republicans running far down the ballot. He also shares the do's and don'ts of tracking candidates and how his shop most effectively weaponizes the massive storehouses of video and research it puts together.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also kick off the third season of The Downballot with a recap of the normally snoozy but surprisingly newsy holiday break, starting with Lauren Boebert's naked attempt to stay in power by flitting off to a new district on the far side of the state. Then there's a huge redistricting win for the good guys in Wisconsin, but a tough loss in Georgia—though a silver lining for Democrat Lucy McBath. Finally, we catch up on the special election to replace George Santos and the fumbling efforts of a Kevin McCarthy ally to get on the ballot in the race to succeed the ex-speaker.

Transcript to come.

The First Annual Downballot Awards! Dec 21, 2023

We're celebrating an amazing 2023 by revisiting all of the year's best elections on this week's episode of The Downballot! January kicked us off with a huge special election flip for Democrats in the Virginia Senate that set the tone for the rest of the year—and made it clear that abortion would remain the most potent issue driving voters to the ballot box. We saw that again and again, from the Wisconsin Supreme Court race to Issue 1 in Ohio to the other Issue 1 in Ohio and even to the governor's race in deep-red Kentucky. The safest bet you can make is that we'll see more of the same in 2024.

David Beard then hands out the First Annual Downballot Awards! Who will take home the prize for Most Notorious Elected Official? Best Leveraging of Raw Political Power? Funniest Fall from Grace? And the biggest honor of them all, Most Badass Campaign Announcement? Tune in to find out! Our congratulations to all the winners! And in all sincerity, a huge thank you to all of our listeners, who are the reason for this show in the first place. We are so grateful for your support.

Transcript can be found here.

The inside scoop on focus groups Dec 14, 2023

Every political junkie consumes polls, but how much do you know about focus groups? We wanted to learn more—much more—about this critical campaign tool, so we invited Margie Omero of GBAO Strategies to join us on this week's episode of The Downballot. Omero gets into the nitty-gritty to tell us how focus groups are actually convened, the best ways to moderate them, and what participants have been saying about abortion ever since the Dobbs decision. Those views were key to understanding why last year's red wave narrative was flawed and shed light on what we can expect in 2024.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dissect the big new redistricting decision from New York's top court, which just ordered the state to use a new congressional map next year. The Davids explain why the court ruled as it did and game out what might happen next. As with so much in New York politics, the picture is cloudy, but Democrats stand to benefit—though don't expect an extreme gerrymander like the infamous "baconmander."

Transcript can be found here.

House Republicans in crisis Dec 07, 2023

It's not every day that the House expels one of its own, so of course we're talking about George Santos getting the boot on this week's episode of The Downballot. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss the deep fracture inside the GOP that the expulsion vote, then handicap the special election to replace Congress' newest ex-member. They also dive into the absolutely wild New York Times report detailing how former Rep. Tom Suozzi had to grovel before Gov. Kathy Hochul to earn her approval to run in that February election.

The Davids spend some more time examining House Republican dysfunction as they recount the departures of two of the party's top leaders, Kevin McCarthy and Patrick McHenry. They also explain why the results of a legislative special election in Miami mean good news for Democrats before jumping into redistricting updates for both Florida and Georgia, then wrap up with a surprisingly positive ruling in favor of voting rights in North Carolina.

Transcript can be found here.

Should Democrats freak out over recent polls? with Tom Bonier Nov 30, 2023

There has been a ton of coverage in recent weeks over a streak of poor 2024 polling for Democrats and Target Smart’s Tom Bonier joins us to help us separate the wheat from the chaff. We talk about what to take from these polls and how to balance them against the much more positive election results we’ve seen this year. We also discuss how early voting data continues to evolve and how Sen. Sherrod Brown’s campaign will use Ohio’s recent abortion and marijuana referendums to find new persuadable voters next year.

House retirements keep coming and host David Beard and Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer discuss one of the most competitive new open seats, Michigan’s 8th district. They also preview some key state house special elections in Michigan and Pennsylvania and new attempts to put abortion rights on the ballot next year in Montana and Nebraska.

Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time.

Transcript for this episode can be found here.

How Democrats win back North Carolina Nov 16, 2023

We talk about North Carolina non-stop on "The Downballot," so it's only natural that our guest on this week's episode is Anderson Clayton, the new chair of the state Democratic Party. Clayton made headlines when she became the youngest state party chair anywhere in the country at the age of 25, and the story of how she got there is an inspiring one. But what she's doing—and plans to do—is even more compelling. Her focus is on rebuilding the party infrastructure from the county level up, with the aim of reconnecting with rural Black voters who've too often been sidelined and making young voters feel like they have a political home. Plus: her long-term plan to win back the state Supreme Court.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, turn to the avalanche of political developments that have followed last week's off-year elections, with big new candidate announcements in New Jersey's Senate race and Virginia's 2025 contest for governor. They also finally get to discuss the unusual Democratic primary unfolding in the nation's newest Black-majority House seat in Alabama. And then there are all the retirements to recap! So, so many retirements.

Find Daily Kos Elections' new 2024 calendar right here. Transcript to come.

Abortion powers Democrats to huge election night Nov 09, 2023

Just one word explains why Democrats had such a massive election night on Tuesday: abortion. On the newest episode of The Downballot, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap all the top races through the lens of reproductive rights, which continue to motivate Democrats and even win over a key swath of Republican voters. Nowhere was that more evident than in Ohio, which voted to enshrine the right to an abortion into the state constitution by a double-digit margin, despite countless GOP attempts to derail the effort.

Abortion also played a key role in Kentucky, where Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won another term by making his Republican opponent answer for his total opposition to the procedure despite the state's deep-red hue. It was central as well in Virginia, where Democrats won complete control of the legislature after GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin dared them to oppose his proposed 15-week ban. And it came up again and again in swingy Pennsylvania, which saw Democrat Dan McCaffery win a key seat on the state Supreme Court over a far-right opponent. Plus: How the suburbs continue to slip away from the GOP's grasp.

Transcript can be found here.

Must-watch races on election night Nov 02, 2023

Election Day is finally here! Joining us on "The Downballot" this week to preview all the key contests is Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer, who has the goods on races big and small. Singer kicks us off by getting us up to speed on the battles for governor in Kentucky and Mississippi, two conservative Southern states where it's Republicans who are acting worried. Then it's on to major fights in Pennsylvania, where a vacant state Supreme Court seat is in play, and Ohio, where an amendment to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution is on the ballot.

Singer also highlights a pair of bellwether legislative districts in Virginia, where both chambers are up for grabs, and then it's on to some lesser-known—but still exceedingly important—races further down the ballot. Several are also taking place in swingy Pennsylvania, including a critical contest that will determine who controls election administration in a major county in the Philadelphia suburbs. Democrats will also be hoping for a bounce-back in the county executive's race in Long Island's Suffolk County, an area that swung hard to Republicans last year.

Transcript can be found here.

Who the f@&$ is Mike Johnson? Oct 26, 2023

Mike who? House Republicans have managed to elevate someone so obscure to the speakership that even we scarcely know who he is. But that's why we're devoting this week's episode of "The Downballot" to exposing Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson and his crazy, weird, extreme views. Johnson voted to overturn the 2020 election, supports a nationwide abortion ban, and voted to shut down the government just last month—and he won unanimously, meaning vulnerable Republicans now own all that, too. Plus, Johnson has zero track record when it comes to one of the House speaker's most important duties to his party: raising tons of money. How long before he starts pissing his caucus off?

We're also joined this week by Amanda Litman, the co-founder of Run for Something, which is devoted to encouraging young, diverse progressives to seek local office. Her group just launched a new project specifically targeting school board races, an enormous battleground that gets far too little attention. Litman tells us how Run for Something recruits candidates and advises them on the challenges unique to school board elections, including the importance of retail campaigning and how to push back against attacks from Moms for Liberty-type extremists.

Transcript can be found here.

Meet the House GOP's worst enemy: The House GOP Oct 19, 2023

Why do vulnerable House Republicans keep voting for a sure-loser speaker candidate who opposes all their priorities and might just drown them at the ballot box? Beats us! But we just can't resist a delicious GOP disaster on this week's episode of "The Downballot." David Valadao voted to impeach Trump—and also supports Jim Jordan, known insurrectionist. Brian Fitzpatrick represents a heavily Ukrainian district—and also supports Jim Jordan, known Putinist. And there are many more like them. Make it make sense! Well, we shall try our best.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard are also joined by Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer to recap the (dismal) results of Louisiana's gubernatorial election. The Davids then dissect the GOP's new ultra-extreme gerrymanders in North Carolina before discussing a welcome poll on Ohio's abortion amendment and very heartening developments in Poland, where pro-democracy forces just ousted the country's far-right authoritarian government.

It's also the end of the quarter, so we've published charts rounding up all of the new federal fundraising reports for both the House and the Senate.

Transcript can be found here.

The race for the House in a post-McCarthy world w/ Jeff Singer Oct 12, 2023

While the House continues to be in crisis from the fall of Kevin McCarthy and the Republican Conference’s inability to unite around a new candidate, the 2024 Congressional races are well underway. Daily Kos Elections’ own Jeff Singer joins us to run through some of the notable developments in the most competitive races, including George Santos’s ongoing legal drama and Nancy Mace’s strange theatrics.

Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also preview the first round of the Louisiana governor’s race, taking place this Saturday, October 14. They then discuss the new voting restrictions that North Carolina Republicans passed into law over Governor Cooper’s veto and review the new Alabama congressional map that a three judge panel decided will be used for the rest of the decade.

Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time.

Will McCarthy’s fall affect the 2024 battle for the House? w/ 538’s Nathaniel Rakich Oct 05, 2023

It’s been an unprecedented week in politics as (now former) Speaker Kevin McCarthy was booted out of the Speaker’s chair. 538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins us to break down the fallout, including how it might affect the 2024 race for the House and if McCarthy might resign and trigger a special election for his Congressional seat. We also talk about the good special election trends for Democrats this year and how to incorporate polling into your thinking about elections.

Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also cover the passing of California Senator Dianne Feinstein and her appointed replacement, EMILY’s List’s Laphonza Butler. They also discuss the return of a number of 2022 GOP losers, including Arizona’s Kari Lake, Michigan’s James Craig, and Ohio’s J.R. Majewski, all of whom are announcing new campaigns for 2024.

Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time.

Can Democrats win back the Virginia House? w/ Blue Virginia's Lowell Feld Sep 28, 2023

The Virginia House flipped to Democrats in 2019 and back to Republicans in 2021. Can Democrats win the three seats they need to regain control of the chamber? Blue Virginia's Lowell Feld joins us to run through the key races in both the Virginia Senate and House and how Democrats can win both chambers this November. We also look to 2024 and discuss some key announcements in competitive Virginia Congressional races.

Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also cover the huge news out of New Jersey, where Sen. Bob Menendez has been indicted (again) and this time most state and national Democrats are not standing by him. We also discuss the long-awaited entrance of hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick into the Pennsylvania Senate race for Republicans; the Supreme Court rejecting Alabama's long shot attempt to prevent a new Congressional map; and the gerrymandered state legislative maps Ohioans will be using for at least one cycle.

Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time.

HAIL MOLECH! Massive Dem win in New Hampshire + redistricting w/Stephen Wolf Sep 21, 2023

We did it! And it's all thanks to Molech! We're devoting this week's episode of "The Downballot" to giving praise to the dark god himself after New Hampshire Democrat Hal Rafter won a critical special election over Republican Jim Guzofski, the loony toons pastor who once ranted that liberals make "blood sacrifices to their god Molech." Democrats are now just one seat away from erasing the GOP's majority in the state House and should feel good about their chances in the Granite State next year. Republicans, meanwhile, can only stew bitterly that they lack the grassroots fundraising energy provided by Daily Kos, which endorsed Rafter and raised the bulk of his campaign funds via small donations.

We're also joined by Daily Kos Elections' own Stephen Wolf to update us on the ongoing litigation over Alabama's congressional map. In an unusual move, the court's appointed expert invited the public to submit their own proposals as he prepares replacement maps, so Wolf took him up on the offer and drew two plans of his own. Wolf describes those plans in detail and sings the praises of Dave's Redistricting App, the invaluable free tool that has allowed ordinary citizens to participate in the redistricting process in ways never before possible.

Link: “Campaign for Choice: Inside the 1990 effort that’s protecting Nevada abortion access today,” Nevada Independent.

Transcript can be found here.

The GOP's biggest election-fraud scandal returns Sep 14, 2023

What do you do if you're associated with one of the biggest election fraud scandals in recent memory? If you're Republican Mark Harris, you try running for office again! On this week's episode of "The Downballot," we revisit the absolutely wild story of Harris' 2018 campaign for Congress, when one of his consultants orchestrated a conspiracy to illegally collect blank absentee ballots from voters and then had his team fill them out before "casting" them. Officials wound up tossing the results of this almost-stolen election, but now Harris is back with a new bid for the House—and he won't shut up about his last race, even blaming Democrats for the debacle.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss a late entrant into the race North Carolina governor; why Republicans are struggling to recruit in Ohio now that they can't gerrymander their congressional map again; how a Freedom Caucus member has bizarrely emerged as a voice of sanity within the GOP—and why it'll likely doom him; Mitt Romney's retirement in Utah; and proposed maps that our Daily Kos Elections colleague Stephen Wolf submitted to the federal court in Alabama that's about to impose new congressional districts.

Transcript can be found here.

GOP Senate candidates keep having this one weird flaw Sep 07, 2023

Why does it seem like Republicans have such a hard time recruiting Senate candidates who actually live in the states they want to run in? We're discussing this strange but persistent phenomenon on this week's edition of "The Downballot." The latest example is former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers, who's been spending his time in Florida since leaving the House in 2015, but he's not the only one. Republican Senate hopefuls in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Montana, and Wisconsin all have questionable ties to their home states—a problem that Democrats have gleefully exploited in recent years. (Remember Dr. Oz? Of course you do.)

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap special election primaries in Utah, where an anti-Trump Republican might win, and Rhode Island, which saw something of an upset on the Democratic side. They highlight an unusual ad from Gov. Andy Beshear emphasizing an issue Kentucky Democrats rarely discuss—abortion—as well as unexpected spending by Republicans to attack the leading Democrat in Louisiana's race for governor. And they run down developments in major redistricting cases in Alabama and Florida that both saw new rulings in favor of Black voting rights.

Transcript can be found here.

The epic conservative meltdown in Wisconsin Aug 31, 2023

The far-right justices on Wisconsin's Supreme Court just can't handle the fact that liberals now have the majority for the first time in 15 years, so they're in the throes of an ongoing meltdown—and their tears are delicious. On this week's episode of "The Downballot," co-hosts David Nir and David Beard drink up all the schadenfreude they can handle as they puncture conservative claims that their progressive colleagues are "partisan hacks" (try looking in the mirror) or are breaking the law (try reading the state constitution). Elections do indeed have consequences!

The Davids also explain why the resignation of a Democratic justice on the North Carolina Supreme Court is actually good news … for Democrats. They then dive into an exciting new effort by reproductive rights activists in Colorado to place a measure on the ballot that would repeal the state's ban on public funding for abortions. And finally, they recap a very enjoyable special election that just saw a conservative Iowa county oust its election administrator for being an election conspiracy theorist.

A transcript of the show can be found here.

What it's like to actually draw election districts, with Kari Chisholm Aug 24, 2023

Everyone always talks about redistricting, but what is it like to actually do it? Oregon political consultant Kari Chisholm joins us on this week’s episode of “The Downballot” to discuss his experience as a member of Portland’s new Independent District Commission, a panel of citizens tasked with creating the city’s first-ever map for its city council. Kari explains why Portland wanted to switch from at-large elections to a district-based system, how new multimember districts could boost diversity on the council, and the commission’s surprisingly effective efforts to divide the city into four equal districts while heeding community input.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap yet another New Hampshire special election that saw Democrats overperform district baselines—and why Republicans should be worried about an even bigger special in September. (You can click here to donate to Democrat Hal Rafter in that race.) They then discuss why a new Democratic recruit could help put Florida's Senate race in play and highlight another effort to put abortion on the ballot in 2024 in a very red state: Nebraska.

A transcript of the show can be found here.

Trump's down-ticket conspirator + how parties change, with David Karol Aug 17, 2023

American political parties might often seem stuck in their ways, but they can and in fact do change positions often. Joining us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" is political scientist David Karol, who tells us how and why both the Democratic and Republican parties have adjusted their views on a wide range of issues over the years. Karol offers three different models for how these transformations happen—and explains why voters often stick with their parties even after these shifts. He concludes by offering tips to activists seeking to push their parties when they're not changing fast enough.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive deep into an unexpected downballot angle to the latest Trump indictment, telling the story of state Sen. Shawn Still, who was charged as part of the plot to overturn the 2020 presidential election in Georgia. Still's fellow Republicans drew on the same anti-democratic playbook to help elect him by gerrymandering a district in the Atlanta suburbs, but the GOP can only hold the region's dramatic move to the left at bay for so long. The Davids also recap an unusual development in a major redistricting case in Florida that could result in a Black Democratic congressman having his district restored after Ron DeSantis dismantled it last year.

A transcript of the show can be found here.

GOP debacle in Ohio + why sheriff elections matter, with Emily Farris Aug 10, 2023

Take that, GOP schemes to rig ballot measures! On this week's episode of "The Downballot," co-hosts David Nir and David Beard gleefully dive into the failure of Issue 1, which was designed to thwart a November vote to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. The Davids discuss why Republican efforts to sneak their amendment through during a summertime election were doomed to fail; how many conservative counties swung sharply toward the "no" side; and what the results mean both for Sherrod Brown's reelection hopes and a future measure to institute true redistricting reform.

And joining us as our guest is political science professor Emily Farris, whose research sheds light on an elective office that usually receives too little attention: sheriffs. Farris explains how American counties came to elect their sheriffs in the first place; how they differ from police chiefs; the dangers posed by far-right "constitutional" sheriffs; and why it's so difficult to find committed reformers willing to run against the worst incumbents.

A transcript of the show can be found here.

Could we see a Democratic trifecta in ... Wisconsin?! Aug 03, 2023

It’s a joyous week in Wisconsin, where Janet Protasiewicz’s swearing-in means that the state Supreme Court now has its first liberal majority in 15 years. We’re talking about that monumental transition on this week’s episode of “The Downballot,” including a brand-new suit that voting rights advocates filed on Protasiewicz’s first full day on the job that asks the court to strike down the GOP’s legislative maps as illegal partisan gerrymanders.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss why reports that a Democratic congresswoman might not seek reelection to her swingy House seat might actually be good news; the absolutely bonkers candidate Republicans just nominated in a pivotal New Hampshire special election; how North Dakota conservatives are trying to pave the way for congressional term limits by passing age limits; why Brett Favre is at the center of Democratic attacks against Mississippi’s Republican governor; and why a new poll of Ohio’s Issue 1 differs so dramatically from some other recent data.

A transcript of the show can be found here.

Are Republicans seriously pulling this b.s. in Alabama? Jul 27, 2023

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard have lots of reasons to vent their rage on this week's episode of "The Downballot." First up: Alabama Republicans, who defied a court order to pass a new congressional map with two Black-majority districts—which the state's Republican governor all but admitted they did deliberately. Then there are Ohio Republicans, whose attempt to curtail citizens' rights to pass ballot initiatives is on the verge of going down in flames. Finally, we've got Missouri Republicans, who just got unanimously spanked by the state Supreme Court for trying to thwart an abortion rights amendment.

But it's not all fury from the Davids. There's also some shockingly good polling for Democrats in Kentucky's race for governor—conducted by, believe it or not, a GOP firm. And finally, we have some surprise good news from overseas, where Spain's center-left Socialists appear to have pulled a rabbit out of their hats in a gutsy snap election that had looked like their doom.

A transcript of the show can be found here.

Who Latino voters really are, with Carlos Odio Jul 20, 2023

Latinos have played an increasingly crucial role in our elections, but Democrats' understanding of these voters has often lagged. This week's guest on "The Downballot" is Carlos Odio, the co-founder of EquisLabs, an organization devoted to rectifying this problem. Odio helps us move away from viewing Latino voters as a monolith and offers a helpful framework for getting to know different subsets of this diverse group. He discusses key findings of Equis' 2022 post-mortem, including why Florida went so wrong and how Democrats can make a course correction. He also explains how Latino voter identity can wind up getting dialed up or down depending on the broader election environment.

Host David Nir and guest host Joe Sudbay, meanwhile, dive into Chris Sununu's retirement announcement and why it instantly makes New Hampshire's race for governor a top Democratic target; the Republican shenanigans in Alabama, where lawmakers seem dead-set on ignoring a court order to draw two majority-Black congressional districts; why Democrats will take a new effort to recall several Michigan state representative seriously even if the state GOP is a clown-show; and yet another special election in Wisconsin where Republicans badly underperformed the top of the ticket.

Transcript.

Electing the first trans member of Congress, with Sarah McBride Jul 13, 2023

Delaware's Sarah McBride already made history once when she became the first openly transgender person elected to a state Senate anywhere in the country in 2020. Now she can do so again in her bid for Congress—and she's joining us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" to discuss her path-breaking campaign. McBride explains how her gender identity helped spur her to run for office in the first place; why she focused on passing paid family and medical leave once in the legislature; and the difference she thinks her presence on Capitol Hill could make in the face of the escalating right-wing assault on the trans community. Stepping aside from politics for a moment, she also offers advice to young trans people encountering an often hostile world.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, discuss why we just saw an avalanche of campaign launches following the July 4 holiday and dig into several of the most important kickoffs. There are bellwether House races in tossup districts like Michigan's 7th, where both parties just landed their preferred candidates, as well as Nebraska's 2nd, where the Democrat who lost a close race last year unexpectedly announced a rematch. There's also the Senate contest in perpetually swingy Nevada, where a former GOP outsider is now the establishment favorite, as well as the open governor's race in Washington, where a former Republican congressman has come out of retirement but faces serious headwinds.

Transcript to come.

RERUN: What electoral system should the U.S. switch to, with Matthew Shugart Jul 06, 2023

America could learn a lot from how other countries elect their leaders! Political science professor Matthew Shugart joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot to explain how a variety of electoral systems around the world operate, as well as his thoughts on which might work well here—and actually improve our democracy. Shugart gets into the weeds on proportional voting, single transferable vote, "decoy lists," and much more. If those terms are new to you, you'll definitely want to listen!

This interview originally aired April 19, 2023.

Click Here for the transcript.

How progressives are kicking ass on ballot measures, with Kelly Hall Jun 29, 2023

Ballot measures surged into the spotlight last year thanks to abortion rights, but they've long been a critical tool for enacting positive change. Joining us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" is Kelly Hall, the executive director of the Fairness Project, which has helped pass progressive ballot measures across the country for nearly a decade. Hall tells us how ballot campaigns differ from traditional campaigns, and why stakeholders often spend years debating when and whether to get behind a measure. She also explains why progressive issues often fare better than progressive candidates, and how the Sheriffs' Association and Chobani yogurt helped make Medicaid expansion a reality in deep-red Idaho.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, dissect this week's momentous Supreme Court decision that smacked down a radical right-wing argument that would have greenlit GOP gerrymandering and voter suppression nationwide, including why they're cautiously optimistic that a potential "ticking time bomb" in the ruling won't go off (at least, not to great effect). They also explain why Republicans shouldn't get too excited about landing a supposedly coveted recruit for Montana's Senate race. Finally, they discuss Sarah McBride's path-breaking entry into Delaware's House race, where a victory would make her the first openly trans member of Congress.

Transcript.

Our first-ever interview with a congressman! with Wiley Nickel Jun 22, 2023

Joining us on "The Downballot" this week is North Carolina Rep. Wiley Nickel, the first member of Congress to appear on the show! Nickel gives us the blow-by-blow of his unlikely victory that saw him flip an extremely competitive seat from red to blue last year, including how he adjusted when a new map gave him a very different district and why highlighting the extremism of his MAGA-flavored opponent was key to his success. A true election nerd, Nickel tells us which precincts he was tracking on election night that let him know he was going to win—and which fellow House freshman is the one you want to rock out with at a concert.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's awesome primary results in Virginia that spelled the end of the execrable Joe Morrissey's career in the state Senate. What's more, thanks to losses by several other conservative Democratic incumbents, the Democratic caucus will grow more progressive overall next year. But it's not all good news: The Davids tear apart a pair of awful GOP bills just signed by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott aimed at giving Republicans control of elections in the state's largest county—which just so happens to be trending to the left.

Transcript.

What really happened in the midterms, with Michael Frias & Hillary Anderson Jun 15, 2023

There have been sooo many hot takes about the 2022 midterms, which is why we're joined on this week's episode of "The Downballot" by Michael Frias and Hillary Anderson of the progressive data firm Catalist to discuss their data-intensive report on what actually happened. They explain how they marry precinct-level election results with detailed voter files to go far beyond what the polls can tell us. Among the findings: Highly competitive races were much more favorable to Democrats than less-contested ones; Republicans paid a "MAGA tax" by nominating extreme candidates; and non-college white women shifted toward Democrats by notable margins compared to 2020.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also do a deep, deep dive on the many implications of the Supreme Court's shock redistricting ruling in Alabama last week. The Davids explain why the nay-sayers are wrong to minimize the impact of the decision, which will very likely lead to new districts where Black voters can elect their preferred candidates not only in Alabama but also Louisiana, Georgia, and maybe even Texas. They also discuss what those new districts might look like, and how we know.

Map links: Alabama | Georgia & Louisiana

Transcript.

Dems have a big pickup chance in Arizona, with Joe Sudbay & Quinn Yeargain Jun 08, 2023

This week on "The Downballot," we're joined by guest host Joe Sudbay and law professor Quinn Yeargain for a deep dive into major political developments in three states. First up is Arizona, where a key GOP retirement on the Board of Supervisors in jumbo Maricopa County gives Democrats an excellent chance to win their first majority since the 1960s. Then it's on to Arkansas, where citizens are working to overturn a Republican bill that purports to ban "critical race theory" in public schools by qualifying a referendum for the ballot. Finally, we hit Michigan, where Democrats just advanced a measure to have the state add its Electoral College votes to a multistate compact that would elect the president by the national popular vote.

Transcript.

How progressives are organizing 'blue surge' voters, with Sara Schreiber Jun 01, 2023

Countless progressive organizations seek to engage and mobilize voters, but coordinating those efforts is a mighty task. On this week's episode of "The Downballot," we're joined by Sara Schreiber, the executive director of America Votes, which works with hundreds of partners at the national and state level to deploy the most effective means of urging voters to the polls. Schreiber walks us through how coalitions of like-minded groups are formed and how the work of direct voter contact is divvied up between them. A special focus is on "blue surge" voters—those who, in the Trump era, joined the rolls for the first time—and why ensuring they continue to participate in the political process is the key to progressive victories.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also take stock of recent developments in Pennsylvania and Ohio, two Rust Belt neighbors where Republicans—for once—are breathing a sigh of relief after a pair of disastrous 2022 candidates opted against repeat bids in 2024. They then dive into the extremely belated impeachment of Texas' corrupt attorney general by his fellow Republicans and remind listeners to mark their calendars for a major special election that just got scheduled in New Hampshire.

Transcript can be found here.

How Democrats can win the messaging war, with Anat Shenker-Osorio May 25, 2023

How can Democrats win the messaging war? It turns out there's actually a science to it, as strategic communications consultant Anat Shenker-Osorio tells us on this week's episode of "The Downballot." Shenker-Osorio explains how her research shows the importance of treating voters as protagonists; how Democrats can avoid ceding "freedom" to Republicans by emphasizing "freedoms," plural; and why it actually makes sense to call out "MAGA Republicans" (even though, yes, it's all Republicans).

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also break down a major retirement in Delaware, which paves the way for the state to elect its first Black senator, and discuss how the entrance of a prominent candidate in Michigan's Senate race likely means that Democrats will in fact host a genuinely contested primary. It all adds up to the possibility that more Black women will join the Senate in 2025 alone than in all of American history. Finally, the Davids lay out the five-year plan for Democrats to win back the North Carolina Supreme Court and drive a stake into GOP gerrymandering—again.

Transcript.

Another kick-ass election night for Democrats May 18, 2023

Hell yeah! Democrats and progressives simply crushed it from coast to coast on Tuesday night, so co-hosts David Nir and David Beard are devoting this week's entire episode of "The Downballot" to reveling in all the highlights. At the very top of the list is Jacksonville, where Democrats won the mayor's race for just the second time in three decades—and gave the Florida Democratic Party a much-needed shot in the arm. Republicans also lost the mayor's office in the longtime conservative bastion of Colorado Springs for the first time since the city began holding direct elections for the job 45 years ago.

But it doesn't stop there. Democrats held a critical seat in a special election for the Pennsylvania state House to preserve their one-seat majority in the chamber. The party's left flank also had a strong showing in Pittsburgh's Allegheny County, nominating an outspoken progressive for county executive and defeating an anti-reform incumbent for district attorney. New Hampshire Democrats, meanwhile, romped in a special election for their own state House, a positive sign for their chances of taking it back in 2024—if not sooner.

Transcript.

Making ads people actually watch, with Mark Putnam May 11, 2023

How do you make a campaign ad that voters actually want to watch? We're discussing that critical question on this week's episode of "The Downballot" with leading Democratic ad-maker Mark Putnam, who's been responsible for some of the most memorable spots in recent years. Putnam details his creative process, which always starts with spending time with candidates to truly learn their story—and scouting locations in-depth. He then walks us through the production of the famous Jason Kander-assembles-a-gun-blindfolded ad that went viral and explains why, believe it or not, you always want footnotes in your attack ads.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also look ahead to next week's elections, headlined by the bitter GOP primary (is there any other kind?) in the Kentucky governor's race; the free-for-all Democratic primary to serve as Philadelphia's next mayor; and the special election in the Philly suburbs that could determine whether Democrats keep control of the state House. Plus: the ACLU's new effort to place an amendment on the ballot in Florida that would enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution.

Transcript can be found here.

Virginia is a tossup this November, with Jeff Singer May 04, 2023

It’s 2023, which may be an odd year, but that just means Virginia takes its traditional place as one of the key states to watch. With odd-year state elections, Virginia has often been a key bellwether for the rest of the country, and this year is no different. Both the state Senate and the General Assembly are up, and both chambers could be won by either party. Daily Kos Elections Editor Jeff Singer joins us to preview the key races in both the June primary and the fall general election.

Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also discuss the many notable campaign announcements from the past week, including Democratic Rep. Colin Allred’s entrance into the U.S. Senate race in Texas against Ted Cruz and GOP Governor Jim Justice’s entrance into the West Virginia Senate race against Joe Manchin. Then they cover two big retirements in blue states, Senator Ben Cardin in Maryland and Governor Jay Inslee in Washington State, plus what Democrats might run to replace them.

Transcript can be found here.

How to make elections better, with Deb Otis Apr 27, 2023

Can we have fairer, more representative elections in the U.S.? Absolutely, says Deb Otis on this week's episode of "The Downballot." Otis, the director of research at FairVote, tells us about her organization's efforts to advocate for two major reforms—ranked-choice voting and proportional representation—and the prospects for both. RCV, which is growing in popularity, not only helps ensure candidates win with majorities but can lower the temperature by encouraging cross-endorsements. PR, meanwhile, would give voters a stronger voice, especially when they're a minority in a dark red or dark blue area.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the entrance of a truly miserable GOP candidate into the North Carolina governor's race: the unrepentant homophobic bigot Mark Robinson, currently the state's lieutenant governor. Then they dive into a new report that conservative megadonor Peter Thiel, who was responsible for two of the very worst Republican Senate hopefuls in 2022, plans to keep his wallet shut for 2024—very probably to Mitch McConnell's relief.

Transcript.

What electoral system should the U.S. switch to, with Matthew Shugart Apr 20, 2023

America could learn a lot from how other countries elect their leaders! Political science professor Matthew Shugart joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot to explain how a variety of electoral systems around the world operate, as well as his thoughts on which might work well here—and actually improve our democracy. Shugart gets into the weeds on proportional voting, single transferable vote, "decoy lists," and much more. If those terms are new to you, you'll definitely want to listen!

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the collapse of an effort by the Montana GOP to rig the 2024 Senate election by changing the rules for just that one race, and why New York's top court, which is finally back at full strength, could ultimately lead to a more favorable congressional map for Democrats next year.

Transcript available here.

Our first 2024 House preview, with Jacob Rubashkin Apr 13, 2023

It's never too early to start talking about the House! Joining us on this week's edition of The Downballot is Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin, who offers his thoughts on the overall playing field and a wide range of key contests. Jacob explains why Lauren Boebert might have an easier time of it in her likely rematch, how some candidates have a "special sauce" that allows them to keep winning difficult districts, and why he thinks Mary Peltola is favored for re-election despite Alaska's persistent red lean.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also marvel at how the Tennessee GOP scored a remarkable own-goal in booting state Reps. Justin Jones and Justin Pearson, who've now already returned to the chamber with dramatically enhanced profiles; dissect the very obvious ploy by Montana Republicans to tilt the 2024 Senate election their way by changing the primary rules for just that one race; and break down a new Daily Kos Elections analysis of the 23 states that could add protections for abortion rights to their constitutions.

Transcript available here.

Massive progressive win in Wisconsin + Alaska politics, with Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Apr 06, 2023

Progressives scored a monumental victory in Wisconsin Tuesday night when Janet Protasiewicz flipped a pivotal seat on the state Supreme Court, and we've got plenty to say about it on this week's episode of The Downballot. Not only are the electoral implications deeply worrisome for Republicans, the court's new liberal majority has the chance to revive democracy in the Badger State by restoring abortion rights and striking down gerrymandered GOP maps. It truly is a new day—and one we've long awaited—in Wisconsin.

We're also delving into the fascinating politics of Alaska with our guest this week, former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Jonathan recounts his unlikely journey to the state House after winning a huge upset while still in college before explaining how Democrats, independents, and even a few Republicans forged a remarkable cross-partisan governing coalition. We also get an on-the-ground view of what Mary Peltola's stunning special election victory last year looked like to Alaska Democrats.

Transcript available here.

Blockbuster 2024 Supreme Court preview, with Carah Ong Whaley Mar 30, 2023

State supreme court races are a favorite topic of ours, and there are literally dozens more on the ballot in 2024, so we're previewing the top battles with Carah Ong Whaley of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Carah tells us how and why so much money has come to be spent on supreme court elections in recent decades before diving into next year's key contests, including several states where control is on the line, like Ohio, Michigan, and Montana. With the stakes high for redistricting reform, abortion rights, and democracy, progressives everywhere will want to stay up-to-date on all of these races.

Of course, there's a pivotal Supreme Court showdown on the ballot next week in Wisconsin, so co-hosts David Nir and David Beard kick things off with a preview of that matchup, as well as a crucial special election for the Wisconsin Senate and the mayoral runoff in Chicago. The Davids also dig into veteran Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee's decision to run for mayor of Houston, a major move that seriously shakes up the contest for America's fourth-largest city.

We also want to say a special thanks to our producer, Cara Zelaya, whose final show is this week. Cara was instrumental in the creation and launch of The Downballot and we couldn't have done any of this without her. She'll be missed, but we wish her the absolute best in her future endeavors.

Transcript available here.

Super-sized election roundup with 2024 Senate updates Mar 23, 2023

It's just barely springtime in an off year, but there's been loads of election news lately, so co-hosts David Nir and David Beard have a super-sized roundup on this week's episode of The Downballot. The Davids recap the first round of voting in the race for Jacksonville mayor (which saw Democrats do unusually well) and the collapse of an effort to recall New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell before turning to big batch of 2024 updates.

On tap for the Senate: The GOP's desperate effort to compete with Democratic fundraising enthusiasm by recruiting self-funders; why Republicans are afraid the guy who succeeded John Boehner in Congress will try to challenge Sherrod Brown; and how Democrats' plans to clear the field in Michigan may not succeed. Plus developments in the battle for New Hampshire's governorship, a key House seat in Wisconsin, and the saga of Tennessee's answer to George Santos.

Transcript available here.

The right way to fundraise online, with Joshua Karp and Jane Hughes Mar 16, 2023

Everyone is beyond tired of sucky fundraising emails foretelling DOOM, but there's a better way. Joshua Karp and Jane Hughes join us on this week's episode of The Downballot to tell us how their new firm, Liftoff Campaigns, is breaking down the traditional silo between communications and digital outreach so that donors are treated like people, not piggybanks. Our guests explain why it's important for every candidate to establish their brand and earn the trust of their supporters rather than pummel them straight away with requests for money, and how best to do so.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss a new effort in Ohio to qualify an amendment for the November ballot that would guarantee abortion rights; the astonishing spending ratio between the two candidates running in Wisconsin's April 4 election for state Supreme Court; why GOP donors in Louisiana are desperately trying to boost an alternative candidate for governor to nutbar Attorney General Jeff Landry; and a brand-new data set from Daily Kos Elections that lets you see how every congressional and legislative district overlaps with one another and with every county in the country.

Transcript available here.

The Republican war on ballot initiatives, with Stephen Wolf Mar 09, 2023

Progressives have had tremendous success passing all sorts of reforms at the ballot box in recent years, including measures that have expanded Medicaid, increased the minimum wage, and created independent redistricting commissions. How have Republicans responded? By making it harder to qualify measures for the ballot.

Daily Kos Elections' own Stephen Wolf joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot for a deep dive on the GOP's war on ballot initiatives, which includes burdensome signature requirements that disproportionately impact liberals; ramping up the threshold for passage for citizen-backed measures but not those referred by legislatures; and simply repealing voter-passed laws Republicans don't like. But Republican power is not unfettered, and Stephen explains how progressives can fight back by defeating efforts to curtail ballot measures—many of which voters themselves would first have to approve.

Transcript available here.

Americans are more liberal than you think, with Rachael Russell Mar 02, 2023

What do Americans really think about the issues? It turns out they are a surprisingly liberal bunch, as Rachael Russell of Navigator Research tells us on this week's episode of The Downballot. Russell explains how Navigator conducts in-depth research to fill in gaps in policy debates with hard data instead of pundit speculation. The challenge for Democrats is that many voters say they hold progressive beliefs but still pull the lever for Republicans. That imbalance, however, presents an opportunity—Democrats just have to seize it.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap the first round of voting in the race for Chicago mayor, which saw a progressive apocalypse averted; the resolution to the long-running uncertainty over the speakership in the Pennsylvania state House that saw Joanna McClinton make history; Rep. Elissa Slotkin's entry into Michigan's open Senate race, which makes her the first prominent candidate to run; and the inexplicable decision by conservatives to go dark on the airwaves for a full week following last week's primary in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race.

Transcript available here.

The most important Dem group you've never heard of, with Kim Rogers Feb 23, 2023

You know about the DSCC and DCCC, but have you heard of DASS? You'll want to! We're talking with Kim Rogers, the executive director of the not-especially-well-known but crucially important Democratic Association of Secretaries of State on this week's edition of The Downballot. Rogers explains how her organization helps recruit candidates, deploy resources, and win races for secretary of state across the country—and why these elections operate so differently from many others. She also tells us about what Democratic secretaries are doing to fight disinformation and expand voting rights, and the most bonkers thing she heard come out of the mouth of a 2022 election denier.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, recap an exciting series of elections that took place on Tuesday, starting with the race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, where progressives ran up the score and landed their preferred opponent for the April 4 general election. There were also big Democratic overperformances in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Kentucky that augur well for the party. Finally, Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer joins us to preview next week's first-round faceoff in the race for mayor of Chicago—a true tossup that could see any number of different winners.

Transcript available here.

Overthrowing the tyranny of the Electoral College, with Christopher Pearson Feb 16, 2023

Yes, electing the president by popular vote is possible! Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot is former Vermont legislator Christopher Pearson, an official with National Popular Vote, the organization advocating for states to adopt a compact that would award their electoral votes to the presidential candidate who gets the most votes nationwide. Pearson walks us through the mechanics of the compact, debunks some common misconceptions, and lays out future steps toward hitting the required 270 electoral votes for the agreement to come into force.

Co-hosts David Beard and David Nir also mark The Downballot's one-year anniversary (if you can believe it) by unwrapping a present from the New York Senate, which just shot down Gov. Kathy Hochul's unacceptably conservative pick for the state's top court in epic fashion. In addition, the Davids preview key races coming up next week in Wisconsin and New Hampshire and dive into a brand-new data set from Daily Kos Elections' Stephen Wolf showing just how out of balance the Senate is: Republicans haven't won the popular vote since 1998 but have still controlled the chamber half the time since then.

Transcript available here.

When is a poll a quality poll? with Natalie Jackson Feb 09, 2023

How can you tell when a poll is actually high quality? Natalie Jackson, research director at PRRI, joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot to discuss that and more. Jackson tells us the indicators she looks for to determine whether a survey is worth taking seriously, what she thinks the future of polling aggregation ought to look like, and why white evangelical Christians are the real outliers when it comes to religious groups' views on abortion.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also break down Democrats' big special election victories in Pennsylvania; new efforts by progressives to pick their preferred GOP opponents in two key Wisconsin races; the first true retirement from the House this cycle; and a proposal to increase the size of the House, which has been capped at 435 members for more than a century.

On Daily Kos Elections: The House stopped growing over a century ago even as the U.S. quadrupled. A new bill would fix that.

Transcript available here.

Inside the election night decision desk, with Kyle Kondik Feb 02, 2023

We're chatting with one of our favorite fellow election analysts on this week's episode of The Downballot, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball. Kyle helped call races last year for CBS and gives us a rare window inside a TV network's election night decision desk, which literally has a big button to call control of the House—that no one got to press. Kyle also dives into his new race ratings for the 2024 Senate map, including why he thinks Joe Manchin's unlikely tight-rope act might finally come to an end.

In their Weekly Hits, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap big developments in two Senate contests: Rep. Adam Schiff's entry into the race to succeed Dianne Feinstein, and the GOP's unexpected show of unity in the open-seat election in Indiana. They also dissect the first poll of this year's hotly contested race for governor in Kentucky and highlight another 2023 battle that shouldn't get overlooked: the race for a vacant seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.

Transcript available here.

How the Hispanic Caucus defied expectations, with Victoria McGroary Jan 26, 2023

We've got more developments in the 2024 Arizona Senate race as Congressman Ruben Gallego officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination. David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay discuss his chances in the race and how Dem-turned-Indy Kyrsten Sinema's decision on whether to run for re-election will impact Gallego's support from national Democrats. Then we discuss the upcoming Chicago mayor's race and the recent flurry of polls that have shown incumbent mayor Lori Lightfoot anywhere from leading the pack to missing out on a runoff entirely. Lastly, we touch on Virginia Senator Tim Kaine's decision to run for re-election and the importance of Virginia's 2023 state elections.

After the break we're joined by Victoria McGroary, the Executive Director of BOLD PAC, which serves as the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. She breaks down how Democrats prevented losses among Hispanic voters in 2022 despite pundit predictions otherwise. We also discuss the ongoing problem of disinformation in Spanish language media and how BOLD PAC has fought back against it. And we heard about the memorable OR-6 Democratic primary from last year, where BOLD PAC's endorsed candidate, Andrea Salinas, managed to overcome a 12-1 spending disparity to defeat a crypto-backed candidate.

Transcript available here.

Ending Citizens United, with Tiffany Muller + Hochul's court debacle Jan 19, 2023

We've got a special double-barreled, two-guest show for you on this week's episode of The Downballot! First up is Tiffany Muller, the president of End Citizens United, who discusses her group's efforts to roll back the corrupting effects of the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision as we hit the ruling's 13th anniversary. Muller tells us about ECU's short- and long-term plans to enact serious campaign finance reform; how the organization has expanded into the broader voting rights arena in recent years; and research showing the surprising connection many voters drew between the GOP's attacks on democracy and their war against abortion rights.

Then we're joined by law professor Quinn Yeargain to gape slack-jawed at the astonishing setback Gov. Kathy Hochul experienced in the state capitol on Wednesday when a Democratic-led Senate committee rejected her conservative pick to lead New York's top court. Yeargain explains why Hochul's threatened lawsuit to force the legislature to hold a full floor vote on Hector LaSalle defies 250 years of precedent and what will happen if she eventually retreats—as she manifestly should.

Transcript available here.

Monster flip in Virginia + re-redistricting preview Jan 12, 2023

Hell yeah! Election season is already here, and it's already off to an amazing start with Democrats' huge flip of a critical seat in the Virginia state Senate, which kicks off this week's episode of The Downballot. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dissect what Aaron Rouse's victory means for November (abortion is still issue #1!) when every seat in the legislature will be on the ballot. They also discuss big goings-on in two U.S. Senate races: California, where Rep. Katie Porter just became the first Democrat to kick off a bid despite Sen. Dianne Feinstein's lack of a decision about her own future, and Michigan, which just saw veteran Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow announce her retirement.

The Davids also delve back into a topic that frequently came up last year: redistricting. Didn't every state just draw new maps? you might ask. Yes! But many have to do so again, thanks to court rulings. Unfortunately, this gives Republicans in North Carolina and Ohio the opportunity to gerrymander once more, though there's an outside chance some Southern states could be required to draw new congressional districts where Black voters can elect their candidates of choice.

Transcript available here.

How Pod Save America kicks GOP ass, with Sara Garcia Jan 05, 2023

What a way to start the new year! On the first episode of season two of The Downballot, we're talking with Sara Garcia, the strategy and outreach manager at Crooked Media—home of Pod Save America—about everything her organization does to mobilize progressives and kick GOP ass. Sara tells us how Crooked arose to fill a void in the media landscape, how it not only informs listeners but also gives them tools to take action, and some of her favorite shows that she loves to recommend to folks.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the Republican shitshow currently unfolding in Congress—and starkly different outcomes in two state legislatures that just elected new House speakers via bipartisan coalitions; the landslide win for the good guys in a special election primary in Virginia; why George Santos faces serious legal trouble that will very likely end with his resignation; and the massive pushback from progressive groups and labor unions against Kathy Hochul's conservative pick to be New York's top judge.

Transcript available here.

Sinema's foolhardy gamble and 2023 key race preview Dec 15, 2022

What better way to wrap up the year than by previewing the biggest contests of 2023 on this week's episode of The Downballot? Progressives will want to focus on a Jan. 10 special election for the Virginia state Senate that would allow them to expand their skinny majority; the April 4 battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court that could let progressives take control from conservatives; Chicago's mayoral race; gubernatorial contests in Kentucky and Louisiana; and much, much more.

Of course, we might've thought we were done with 2022 after Georgia, but Kyrsten Sinema decided to make herself the center of attention again. However, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why there's much less than meets the eye to her decision to become an independent: She can't take away the Democratic majority in the Senate, and her chances at winning re-election are really poor. In fact, there's good reason to believe she'd hurt Republicans more in a three-way race. The Davids also discuss the upcoming special election for Virginia's dark blue 4th Congressional District, where the key battle for the Democratic nomination will take place in less than a week.

Thank you to all our listeners for supporting The Downballot in our inaugural year. We'll be taking a break for the holidays, but we'll be back on Jan. 5 with a brand new episode.

Support Aaron Rouse for the Virginia state Senate and Janet Protaseiwicz for the Wisconsin Supreme Court right here

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/13/2141682/-Republicans-would-love-it-if-we-just-relaxed-but-no-chance-There-are-two-huge-races-coming-up

Transcript available here.

Georgia on our minds, with Matt Booker Dec 08, 2022

Well, that was an awesome way to finish out the 2022 election cycle! Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard revel in Raphael Warnock's runoff victory on this week's episode of The Downballot and take a deep dive into how it all came together. The Davids dig into the turnout shift between the first and second rounds of voting, what the demographic trends in the metro Atlanta area mean for Republicans, and why Democrats can trace their recent success in Georgia back to a race they lost: the famous Jon Ossoff special election in 2017.

We're also joined by one of our very favorite people, Daily Kos Elections alum Matt Booker, who shares his thoughts on the midterms and tells us about his work these days as a pollster. Matt explains some of the key ways in which private polling differs from public data; how the client surveys he was privy to did not foretell a red wave; and the mechanics of how researchers put together focus groups. Matt also reminisces about his time at "DKE University" and how his experience with us prepared him for the broader world of politics.

Transcript available here.

Democrats ran great campaigns, actually, with Josh Wolf Dec 01, 2022

Why did Democrats do so surprisingly well in the midterms? It turns out they ran really good campaigns, as strategist Josh Wolf tells us on this week's episode of The Downballot. That means they defined their opponents aggressively, spent efficiently, and stayed the course despite endless second-guessing in the press. Wolf gives us an inside picture of how exactly these factors played out in the Arizona governor's race, one of the most important Democratic wins of the year. He also shines a light on an unsexy but crucial aspect of every campaign: how to manage a multi-million budget for an enterprise designed to spend down to zero by Election Day.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, take a look at how turnout differed between Republicans and Democrats in 2022 (and why it's bad news for the GOP for 2024); why the Republican House majority is the most precarious it's been in a long time; how bonkers conspiracy theorists in a dark-red county in Arizona could flip two major races by refusing to certify their own votes; and a key special election coming up in Wisconsin that could allow Democrats to roll back the GOP's new supermajority in the state Senate.

Transcript available here.

The last results of 2022 and looking toward 2024, with Joe Sudbay Nov 23, 2022

Election season overtime is finally winding down, so Democratic operative Joe Sudbay joins David Nir on The Downballot as a guest-host this week to recap some of the last results that have just trickled in. At the top of the list is the race for Arizona attorney general, where Democrat Kris Mayes has a 510-vote lead with all ballots counted (a mandatory recount is unlikely to change the outcome). Also on the agenda is Arizona's successful Proposition 308, which will allow students to receive financial aid regardless of immigration status.

Over in California, Democrats just took control of the boards of supervisors in two huge counties, Riverside and Orange—in the case of the latter, for the first time since 1976. Joe and David also discuss which Democratic candidates who fell just short this year they'd like to see try again in 2024, and what the GOP's very skinny House majority means for Kevin McCarthy's prospects as speaker.

Transcript available here.

More Dem wins + overtime races Nov 17, 2022

We're now in the second week of election overtime and there are still plenty of major races yet to be decided—as well as tons more great news for Democrats to exult over on this week's episode of The Downballot. On the uncalled races front, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into a pair of House races in California and several legislatures that could flip from red to blue, including the Pennsylvania House. Speaking of legislatures, the Davids also go deep on what the astonishing flips in Michigan will mean for progressives and particularly organized labor.

And there's more! The hosts explain why New York's court-drawn congressional map did indeed undermine Democrats (despite some claims to the contrary) and wrap up with a recap of interesting ballot measures across the country, including an Arizona amendment to create the post of lieutenant governor for the first time; minimum wage hikes in multiple states; and, in several more states, the legalization of weed plus, in Colorado, psychedelic mushrooms.

Episode transcript is available here.

Holy crap, what an amazing night! Nov 10, 2022

Holy crap, what an amazing night! Where do we even begin this week's episode of The Downballot? Well, we know exactly where: abortion. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap Tuesday's extraordinary results, starting with a clear-eyed examination of the issue that animated Democrats as never before—and that pundits got so badly wrong. They also discuss candidate quality (still really important!), Democratic meddling in GOP primaries (good for democracy, actually), and "soft" Biden disapprovers (lots of them voted for Democrats).

The Davids then catalog the uncalled races for Senate and game out what might happen in the House; review the clean sweep for the good guys in five states that had abortion-related measures on the ballot; and finish off with some delicious, gourmet schadenfreude. You won't want to miss out!

Episode transcript.

The key House races to watch on Tuesday, with Jeff Singer Nov 03, 2022

At long last, the 2022 midterms are almost here! With the battle for the House front and center, we've brought back Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer to give us a window into the key races on a final pre-election episode of The Downballot. Singer discusses a wide range of contests that will offer insight into how the night is going, including top GOP pickup opportunities, second-tier Republican targets, and the seats where Democrats are on offense. And with many vote tallies likely to stretch on for some time, Singer also identifies several bellwether races in states that count quickly.

We'll be covering all of these races and many, many more on Tuesday night in our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections and on Twitter. The first polls close at 6 PM ET, so come join us! And of course, we'll recap the action on next week's edition of The Downballot.

Transcript is available here.

Answering your questions on the 2022 midterms, with Steve Singiser Oct 27, 2022

The 2022 midterms are just around the corner, and you sent us a ton of fantastic questions for The Downballot mailbag episode we promised this week, so we brought on Daily Kos Elections contributing editor Steve Singiser to help us answer them. Among the many topics we cover: which states are likely to report results slowly—and how will those results change over time; the House districts that look like key bellwethers for how the night might go, and which might offer surprises; why and how Democrats make the hard decisions on which races to triage; the top legislative chambers to keep an eye on; and plenty more!

A transcript of the episode is available here.

How to read the polls for 2022, with Tom Jensen Oct 20, 2022

How should we be reading the 2022 polls, in light of shifting margins and past misses? Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen joins us on The Downballot to explain how his firm weights polls to reflect the likely electorate; why Democratic leads in most surveys this year should be treated as smaller than they appear because undecided voters lean heavily anti-Biden; and the surprisingly potent impact abortion has had on moving the needle with voters despite our deep polarization.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dig into the third-quarter fundraising numbers for both Senate and House candidates that show Democrats crushing it; explore the GOP's $1 million infusion into Oklahoma's shockingly competitive race for governor; highlight two new resources from Daily Kos Elections: our candidate guide and our House Vulnerability Index; and explain why the epic Tory meltdown in the U.K. is not likely to lead to early elections.

Next week, we’re doing a mailbag episode! Send us all your questions on the midterms and we’ll answer them. You can email us at thedownballot@dailykos.com, or you can find us on Twitter at @DKElections.

Episode transcript is available here.

How Democrats are winning the abortion ad wars, with Kelly Gibson Oct 13, 2022

Abortion has been the number one topic for campaign ads this year, so we're talking with veteran ad maker Kelly Grace Gibson, the founder of the women-led Stronger Than Comms, about how Democrats are pressing their advantage on this week's edition of The Downballot. Gibson walks us through the nuts and bolts of how ads actually get made; how Democrats have shown unusual message discipline on abortion while simultaneously tailoring their messages to different audiences; and why she has hope for some progressive candidates and ballot measures even in difficult states.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also get medieval on the traditional media for its appalling display of ableism in the wake of John Fetterman's recent NBC interview; recap the absolutely wild goings-on in Los Angeles, where City Council President Nury Martinez just resigned after a racist tirade was caught on tape; dive into the unexpectedly close race for governor in Oklahoma; and highlight a brand-new database from Daily Kos Elections showing how media markets and congressional districts overlap.

Episode transcript is available here.

Will scandals sink the GOP's Senate hopes? with Nathaniel Rakich Oct 06, 2022

After an erruption of even more scandals among Republican Senate candidates, FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich returns to The Downballot this week to discuss the effect these sorts of scandals can have on competitive races; whether Democrats stand a chance to keep the House; and the different ways pollsters create likely voter models.

Co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also discuss Dr. Oz, puppy killer; the GOP’s hypocrisy regarding Herschel Walker’s ever-growing list of scandals; Texas Attorney General’s Ken Paxton desperate attempts to avoid testifying in an abortion case; and Brazil’s presidential runoff, where former President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva remains the favorite despite far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro’s better-than-expected first-round showing.

Episode transcript.

Yes, the polls still matter, with G. Elliott Morris Sep 29, 2022

Yes, the polls still matter! This week on The Downballot, The Economist's G. Elliott Morris joins us to discuss his new book on polling, Strength in Numbers, including the early history of polling in the form of 19th century straw polls; how we can be smart consumers of polls by placing their uncertainty in context; and the surprises that have stood out in his new model forecasting the 2022 midterms.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also check in on Pennsylvania, where Republican Doug Mastriano has called for "40 days of fasting and prayer" to save his ailing campaign for governor; dig into ad spending numbers that show Democrats airing far more spots because they aren't relying on super PACs; circle back to the J.R. Majewski stolen valor scandal, which prompted the NRCC to cut him loose; and recap the dispiriting results of Italy's general election, which saw the far-right win for the first time since Mussolini.

Transcript available here.

The surge in women registering to vote, with Tom Bonier Sep 22, 2022

Since Dobbs, women have registered to vote in unprecedented numbers across the country, and the first person to dig into these stunning trends was TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier, who's our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot. Bonier explains how his firm gathers data on the electorate; why this surge is likely a leading indicator showing stepped-up enthusiasm among many groups of voters, including women, young people, and people of color; how we know these new registrants disproportionately lean toward Democrats; and what it all might mean for November.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the GOP's shrinking path back to a Senate majority as Republicans abandon Arizona; an appalling "stolen valor" scandal in a key Ohio House race (expect Democratic ads on it soon); a new study indicating that Latino voters overall have not continued to move to the right since 2020; and an awesome new congressional map created by Daily Kos Elections' Daniel Donner that rectifies the common problem of traditional maps that over-emphasize rural red areas and render blue urban districts almost invisible.

Transcript available here.

Michigan's first blind Supreme Court justice, with Richard Bernstein Sep 15, 2022

Michigan Democrats are defending a narrow 4-3 majority on their state Supreme Court this fall, and one incumbent on the ballot is the fascinating Richard Bernstein, our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot. Bernstein, who made history in 2014 when he became the first blind justice in the court's history, describes his work as a disability rights advocate prior to joining the bench; how voters identified their struggles with his own during his first campaign; and why he wrote such a feisty response last week when a conservative colleague wanted to block an abortion rights measure from going before voters in November.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recount the final primaries of the year, which saw MAGA candidates sweep three congressional races in New Hampshire, much to the consternation of whatever passes for the GOP establishment these days. They also try to understand why on earth Lindsey Graham introduced a 15-week national abortion ban this week, which has some Republicans twisting in knots and others—including several in competitive races—inexplicably joining in.

To support Justice Bernstein, please visit JusticeWithJulia.com, where you'll find the slate of state supreme court candidates that Daily Kos has endorsed with actor and activist Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

Episode transcript available here.

How competitive is your House district, with Stephen Wolf Sep 08, 2022

Daily Kos Elections just released a massive new data set that breaks down the results of the 2020 presidential election for every last one of the nation's new congressional districts, so we're dissecting what it all means with longtime DKE writer Stephen Wolf. Wolf explains why these numbers closely predict the outcome of most House elections, how they show the way in which the overall playing field has grown even more tilted toward Republicans, what the most evenly divided district in the country is, and much more.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the fallout from the huge Democratic upset in the special election for Alaska's lone House seat, which has Republicans pointing fingers at one another (but mostly at Sarah Palin); gawk at the Senate GOP's huge problems with money and candidate quality that's led to open feuding at the highest levels of the party; recap the Massachusetts primaries; and preview the final primaries of the year in New Hampshire and Rhode Island.

Episode transcript available here.

Rerun: How we can win state supreme courts, with Julia Louis-Dreyfus! Sep 01, 2022

This episode originally aired August 17, 2022

This week, a special guest joins us on The Downballot to shine a spotlight on elections for state supreme courts: actor and activist Julia Louis-Dreyfus! Like Daily Kos, Julia has long supported candidates running at all levels of the ballot, and this year, after the U.S. Supreme Court's demolition of Roe, races for state supreme courts across the country deserve more attention than ever.

In a twist, Julia turns the tables on us and takes over the hosting duties from the Davids to quiz Nir and Beard about these contests. Topics include how bizarre it is that we elect judges in the first place (almost no other country does!), what kinds of issues these courts are likely to decide in the coming years (abortion and gerrymandering, for starters), and most importantly, how ordinary folks can make a difference.

Together, Daily Kos and Julia are proud to announce their endorsement of seven Democratic candidates running for closely divided courts in Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio. You can support this slate by going to JusticewithJulia.com and donating today. These races all have small budgets, so for small-dollar grassroots donors, your contributions will get a huge bang for the buck. Thank you for listening and giving!

Episode transcript is available here.

Which state legislatures to watch in 2022, with Aaron Kleinman Aug 25, 2022

The end of Roe has returned the issue of abortion to the states, and that means few elections are more important than those for state legislature. On this week's episode of The Downballot, we're joined by Aaron Kleinman, director of research for the States Project, which works to flip targeted legislatures nationwide. Aaron reaches back to the notorious "Powell Memo" to explain why legislative power is so crucial; discusses how Pennsylvania's unusually high incumbent re-election rate poses an obstacle for Democrats; lays out the stakes for Democrats trying to keep Republicans from gaining supermajorities in North Carolina; and much more.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap this week's elections, starting with the massive upset in New York's 19th—a race Republicans expected to win handily. There were also two colossal Democratic primaries for neighboring House seats in New York City that finally got resolved, plus a near-win by the very worst MAGA candidate of them all in a district near Orlando. And we update the ongoing vote tally in Alaska, where a Democrat is in surprising contention for the state's lone House seat

Episode transcript available here.

How we can win state supreme courts, with Julia Louis-Dreyfus! Aug 17, 2022

This week, a special guest joins us on The Downballot to shine a spotlight on elections for state supreme courts: actor and activist Julia Louis-Dreyfus! Like Daily Kos, Julia has long supported candidates running at all levels of the ballot, and this year, after the U.S. Supreme Court's demolition of Roe, races for state supreme courts across the country deserve more attention than ever.

In a twist, Julia turns the tables on us and takes over the hosting duties from the Davids to quiz Nir and Beard about these contests. Topics include how bizarre it is that we elect judges in the first place (almost no other country does!), what kinds of issues these courts are likely to decide in the coming years (abortion and gerrymandering, for starters), and most importantly, how ordinary folks can make a difference.

Together, Daily Kos and Julia are proud to announce their endorsement of seven Democratic candidates running for closely divided courts in Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio. You can support this slate by going to JusticewithJulia.com and donating today. These races all have small budgets, so for small-dollar grassroots donors, your contributions will get a huge bang for the buck. Thank you for listening and giving!

Episode transcript is available here.

Effective political ads and speaking to Black voters, with Terrance Green Aug 11, 2022

Black voters are the most stalwart constituency in the Democratic Party, but candidates cannot take them for granted. Media consultant Terrance Green joins us on this week's edition of The Downballot to discuss his career in politics communicating with voters, including leading the largest-ever paid media operation to turn out the Black vote on behalf of the Biden-Harris campaign. Immediately after that historic victory, he found himself targeting white voters on behalf of a Black Senate hopeful, Raphael Warnock, in Georgia's epic runoffs. Terrance also tells us how he's helped African American candidates turn back racist attacks and what he thinks the impact of having so many high-profile Black Senate contenders this year will be.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, recap this week's races, including a special election in a conservative Minnesota House district that saw the Republican badly underperform Donald Trump; a surprisingly close call for one of the most vocal progressives on Capitol Hill, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar; and the Democratic primary for Vermont's open House seat, which means that, at long last, the state will almost certainly end its status as the only one never to send a woman to Congress come next year.

Episode transcript to come.

The Kansas abortion earthquake, with Quinn Yeargain Aug 04, 2022

Kansas rocked the political world on Tuesday night, rejecting an attempt to amend the state constitution to strip away the right to an abortion in a massive landslide. On this week's edition of The Downballot, we pick apart the vote with law professor Quinn Yeargain, an expert on state constitutions. Yeargain explains how the amendment came to be on the ballot, what might've caused the huge spike in voter turnout, and what lessons Democrats should take away from the election (hint: abortion rights are popular, so lean in to them).

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's other key races, including Trump picks prevailing in Senate races in Arizona and Missouri (if you allow that "ERIC" nonsense); a pro-impeachment House Republican going down to defeat in a Michigan seat Democrats are now better-positioned to flip in November; and the return of the notorious Kris Kobach, who narrowly won the GOP nod for Kansas attorney general—and could once again jeopardize his party's chances in a race Republicans have no business losing.

Episode transcript is available here.

My Big Fat August Primary Preview, with Jeff Singer Jul 28, 2022

Whoa, mama! August has so, so many juicy primaries on tap, which is why we've brought Daily Kos Elections Editor Jeff Singer back to discuss all the best races for this week's edition of The Downballot. There's the GOP battle for Arizona's governorship, where Trump's pick has been absolutely slayed by her drag queen ex-friend; two pro-impeachment Republicans in Washington state trying to keep their political careers alive; a heavyweight battle between two 30-year veteran incumbents in New York City; and lots, lots more.

Co-host David Nir recaps the back-to-back dropouts in Wisconsin's Democratic primary for Senate that have solidified Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes as the undisputed frontrunner. He also criticizes the handwringing over Democrats' meddling in a Michigan primary, saying it's not the Democratic Party's responsibility to make sure Republicans nominate sensible candidates—that's the GOP's job (if it even cares to). David Beard, meanwhile, previews the snap election just called in Italy, where the right looks set to perform well.

Episode transcript is available here.

How state Sen. Jeff Smith went to prison and devoted himself to reform Jul 21, 2022

Our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot is former Missouri state Sen. Jeff Smith, who spent a year in federal prison stemming from a campaign finance violation and devoted himself to criminal justice reform upon his release. Smith tells us about the grave problems his experience behind bars showed him that are in desperate need of redress and why reformers have zero margin for error. He also dives into Missouri's midterm elections to explain why Eric Greitens—whom he's known since childhood—is such a dangerous candidate, and why he can win despite his staggering flaws.

Co-host David Beard recaps Maryland's primaries, some of which still haven't been called, and dissects the House vote recognizing same-sex marriage as a fundamental right, which saw a number of telling Republican votes both for and against. David Nir, meanwhile, examines the huge second-quarter fundraising gap that still favors Democrats despite the pro-GOP political environment and also looks at the first poll of a key abortion rights ballot measure in Kansas that will go before voters on Aug. 2.

Episode transcript is available here.

How the DCCC helps Democrats win the House, with Jason Bresler Jul 14, 2022

This week, The Downballot talks with Jason Bresler, who was political director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during the 2018 wave that saw the party retake the House. Bresler explains how exactly the DCCC helps candidates, from start to finish; the key moments of 2018 that convinced him the House would flip; and the advice he'd give to Democrats heading into a difficult election cycle. Fascinating fact: The D-Trip will often work with multiple candidates in the same district to aid their campaign launches.

Co-host David Nir dissects the shocking resignation of New York's top judge and what Democrats must do to ensure this conservative high court moves in a more progressive direction. He also checks in on Michigan, where activists just submitted a record number of signatures to get an amendment on the ballot that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. David Beard, meanwhile, previews some key Maryland primaries and updates us on the fallout of Boris Johnson's departure as prime minister of the U.K.

Episode transcript is available here.

How to elect more Black women, with Ruby Powell-Dennis Jul 07, 2022

On this week's episode of The Downballot, we're joined by Ruby Powell-Dennis, founder of the Elect Black Women PAC. Powell-Dennis tells us about her inspiration for creating the group, the work it does to help elect its endorsed candidates at all levels of the ballot, and the particular challenges faced by Black women running for office—including whether to even run in the first place.

David Nir also homes in on races where abortion is on the ballot this year, quite literally: Kansas and Michigan are just two states where voters will decide whether their state constitutions should recognize a right to an abortion. David Beard, meanwhile, discusses the good and bad of election forecasting models and recaps one of the wildest days in U.K. political history—whose fallout is still reverberating.

Episode transcript.

What Dems should do about Dobbs + Pennsylvania deep dive, with Adam Bonin Jun 30, 2022

How could we not discuss the Supreme Court's evisceration of abortion rights on this week's episode of The Downballot? Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard talk about why Democratic leaders must articulate a clear plan for the election outcomes they need—specifically, a Senate majority that will reform the filibuster—and what they intend to do if voters deliver, as well as the importance of waiting for more data before we draw conclusions about what the Dobbs ruling means for November. We also dissect one early data point—a surprisingly close special election for a red House district in Nebraska—and recap several of Tuesday's key primaries.

We're also joined by Pennsylvania election law attorney Adam Bonin, a longtime Daily Kos contributor who knows the ins and outs of every race in the Keystone State. Adam recounts a recent shock victory for voting rights he helped bring about at the Supreme Court; explains why a trio of state Supreme Court races all the way back in 2015 paved the way for un-gerrymandered legislative maps in 2022 and updates us on Democrat John Fetterman's campaign to flip the state's open Senate seat.

Episode transcript.

What the slow-poke states did in redistricting, with David Jarman Jun 23, 2022

Redistricting has finally come to an end, so it's time for us to catch up on what all the slow-poke states did with their new congressional maps on this week's episode of The Downballot. We're talking with Daily Kos Elections contributing editor David Jarman, who walks us through the whipsaw changes in New York, which saw a Democratic gerrymander replaced with a court-drawn map; Ron DeSantis' extreme efforts to rig Florida's districts in violation of the state constitution; and an Ohio map that offers Democrats an interesting pickup opportunity in the Cincinnati area.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap another disastrous night for Donald Trump in Georgia, where three of his favored candidates all lost in runoffs—including one he may have accidentally endorsed; a bizarre drop-out in Alaska that's transformed its first-ever top-four race into a top-three affair instead, and a historic race in Colombia that saw the country elect its first-ever left-wing president.

Episode transcript.

Why Wisconsin is so dang important, with Ben Wikler Jun 16, 2022

No state regularly hosts as many hotly contested elections as Wisconsin, which is why we're talking to state Democratic Party chair Ben Wikler about all of this year's key races on this week's episode of The Downballot. He tells us about everything his organization does to ensure year-round investment in Democratic infrastructure; details the state of play in the battle to defeat Sen. Ron Johnson and re-elect Gov. Tony Evers; and previews a critical race for the state Supreme Court next year that could flip control from conservatives to progressives.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap several recent elections, including Sarah Palin's first-place finish in the special primary for Alaska's lone House seat, the defeat of a pro-impeachment Republican congressman in South Carolina, and a special election where the GOP picked up a Democratic-held House seat in heavily Latino south Texas.

Episode transcript.

Jumbo June primary preview, with Jeff Singer Jun 09, 2022

June is a jumbo primary month, so we've once again brought Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer on this week's edition of The Downballot to preview all of the major races. There's the perennial loser (but one-time winner!) Danny Tarkanian's quest to oust a sitting GOP congressman in rural Nevada; Republican Rep. Mo Brooks' attempt to come back from the dead in the Alabama Senate runoff; two very different member-vs.-member House primaries in Illinois; and a whole heck of a lot more.

Of course, there were also primaries this week, so naturally co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recapped the biggies: two Republican congressmen in Mississippi who were forced into runoffs, a high-profile former Trump cabinet official who might lose a comeback bid, and a crushing defeat for a South Dakota ballot measure designed to make it harder for progressives to pass other ballot measures.

Episode transcript.

Re-air: How did it all begin? A brief history of Daily Kos, with Markos Moulitsas Jun 02, 2022

This episode originally aired on February 10, 2022.

We're celebrating our 20th anniversary for a week longer by re-airing the inaugural episode of The Downballot. In this episode, co-hosts David Nir Nir and David Beard chat with Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas about the history of both Daily Kos and Daily Kos Elections, and why we do the work that we do.

Episode transcript.

Daily Kos 20th anniversary retrospective, with James Lambert May 26, 2022

Believe it or not, Daily Kos is turning 20! We're celebrating this major milestone with a Downballot retrospective, looking back at some of our favorite races over the years with longtime contributing editor James Lambert. We start with a classic 2005 special election in a dark red district in Ohio, featuring "Fighting" Dem Paul Hackett versus Republican "Mean Jean" Schmidt, that foretold the 2006 blue wave. Then we dive deep into the absolutely gonzo 2008 House race on Staten Island that began when an entrenched Republican suddenly revealed he had a secret second family in Virginia—and only got much, much stranger from there.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's primaries, including the battle between Henry Cuellar and Jessica Cisneros that's now gone into overtime; the lousy night Trump-backed candidates had across the board; and another incumbent-vs.-incumbent battle in Georgia where the more progressive congresswoman won despite representing a much smaller portion of her new district.

Episode transcript.

Big primary recap and New York redistricting nonsense, with Joe Sudbay May 19, 2022

Okay, wow, we have a lot of primaries to talk about on this week's episode of The Downballot, which is why we asked political strategist and fellow elections nerd Joe Sudbay to join us to recap it all. There's Madison Cawthorn losing in North Carolina, of course, as well as the GOP nominating QAnon ally Doug Mastriano for governor and the still-undecided Republican battle for Senate in Pennsylvania, plus a fantastic win for an Oregon progressive who'd be the state's first Hispanic member of Congress—which was also a humiliating loss for a crypto-backed super PAC that spent massively on another candidate.

On top of that, we lay into DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney for his inexplicable, selfish decision to run in a new district where three quarters of the residents are already represented by a progressive Black freshman, Mondaire Jones. And much, much more!

Episode transcript.

How MAGA candidates are blowing up the GOP, with Steve Singiser May 12, 2022

Are Republicans torching their chances in November by nominating ultra-extreme MAGA loons? They just might be! This week on The Downballot, Daily Kos Elections contributing editor Steve Singiser joins us to gawk at a bunch of GOP primaries across the nation where hardcore Trump worshippers with blemished resumes and disturbing views could prevail over more mainstream alternatives. On the docket are Pennsylvania's marquee contests for Senate and governor, House races in Michigan and North Carolina, and the secretary of state's race in Colorado—where a prominent Big Lie proponent was just barred by a judge from performing her duties as a local election clerk.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also review Tuesday's primaries, including the first incumbent-vs.-incumbent contest of the year in West Virginia; highlight a brand-new court ruling striking down a key component of Ron DeSantis' congressional gerrymander for undermining Black voters; and recap major elections in Northern Ireland and the Philippines.

Episode transcript.

Why progressives must build state power, with Gaby Goldstein May 05, 2022

This week's dreadful news that the Supreme Court is poised to strike down Roe v. Wade underscores more than ever why progressives must build power at the state level. The Downballot hosts Gaby Goldstein, the co-founder of Sister District, to discuss what Democrats in the states are doing to protect abortion rights; how her organization helps connect volunteers with worthy legislative candidates across the country; and the advice she's giving campaigns on how to succeed in a difficult political environment.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's primaries in Ohio, including Trump-endorsed J.D. Vance's come-from-behind victory in the GOP Senate race, Nina Turner's fizzled rematch with Rep. Shontel Brown, and a shock win by an openly QAnon rando in a House district Republicans are hoping to flip. We also cast a gimlet eye at last-minute ballot shenanigans in New York State designed to benefit Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Episode transcript.

Big, big May primary preview, with Jeff Singer Apr 28, 2022

The 2022 election cycle really gets going next month with primaries in more than a dozen states, so we invited Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer to join us on this week's episode of The Downballot to run us through all the key contests. We analyze some sloppy GOP food fights in Senate races in Alabama, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania; a pair of primaries in Oregon and Texas where progressive challengers are seeking to oust irritating Democratic moderates; and the first incumbent-vs.-incumbent matchup of the year, thanks to West Virginia losing a House seat.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also shake their heads in disbelief at a bizarre ruling by New York's top court striking down the state's new maps; explain why Utah Democrats chose not to endorse a candidate for Senate at their convention last week; discuss the Michigan GOP's decision to back Trump-endorsed Big Lie proponents for state attorney general and secretary of state; and breathe a sigh of relief over the results of the French presidential runoff.

Episode transcript.

Why House Democrats' best defense is a good offense Apr 21, 2022

Yes, it's a tough-looking midterm, but Democrats can still go on offense! The Downballot takes a deep dive into 10 House districts across the country where Republicans are vulnerable for a variety of reasons, whether due to redistricting, retirements, long-term demographic trends, or plain old GOP infighting. Our tour runs from the eastern tip of Long Island in New York all the way to sunny Southern California, with many stops in between.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also investigate Ron DeSantis' turbocharged gerrymander aimed at undermining Black representation; discuss two more Republican Senate primaries where Trump endorsements have made a mess of things; call out a Democrat for running an offensive ad that risks contributing to anti-Asian hatred; and take stock of upcoming elections in France and Australia.

Daily Kos' House fundraising slate.

Episode transcript.

Nerding out on redistricting, with Nathaniel Rakich Apr 14, 2022

This week on The Downballot, we nerd out with Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight, whose path from hobbyist to full-time election analyst closely mirrors the Daily Kos Elections story. Rakich discusses how gerrymandering might have made for a more equal congressional playing field but not necessarily a fair one; what kind of redistricting commissions have actually worked best; and some of the key bellwether districts he'll be looking at to judge what sort of night Democrats can expect in November.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dig into a hard-to-explain decision by a major Democratic super PAC to take sides in an Oregon House primary; what the 2022 version of a well-established prediction model says about the midterms; New York's truly screwed-up system for electing and replacing lieutenant governors, and the results of the first round of France's presidential election.

Episode transcript.

How Democrats are fighting to hold the House, with Ali Lapp Apr 07, 2022

On this week's episode of The Downballot, we're joined by Ali Lapp, the founder of the House Majority PAC—the largest super PAC devoted to helping Democrats win House races nationwide. Lapp discusses HMP's role in the broader Democratic ecosystem, how the organization decides which districts to target, and promising research showing the positive impacts of a new ad touting Democrats' record on the economy.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap elections this week in California and Wisconsin; explain why Republicans are finally turning on Madison Cawthorn (it's not really about cocaine and orgies); pick apart a huge blunder that led the first attack ad in Pennsylvania's Democratic primary for Senate getting yanked off the air the very day it debuted; and provide updates on international elections in Hungary and France.

Episode transcript.

We open our mailbag and answer your questions! Mar 31, 2022

On The Downballot podcast this week, we open up our mailbag! Listeners sent—and we answer—questions on a huge range of topics, including Wisconsin's Senate race, legislative elections in Georgia, how Democrats should address inflation, whether handwriting postcards to voters is an effective tactic, and much more. Special bonus question: Which Republican senator up for re-election this year is most despised by progressives? Tune in to find out! Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the resignation of a GOP congressman convicted of campaign finance fraud, a Republican effort to knock a Trump favorite off the ballot in Tennessee, and recent court rulings that struck down gerrymanders in Maryland and … Alaska? Yep, Alaska! Episode transcript.

The battle for state legislatures in 2022, with Jessica Post Mar 24, 2022

Joining us on The Downballot this week is Jessica Post, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee—the official arm of the Democratic Party dedicated to winning state legislatures nationwide. Jessica talks with us about how the DLCC picks its targets and helps candidates; the impact of freshly un-gerrymandered maps in Michigan and Pennsylvania; and how Democrats are protecting vulnerable seats in a challenging midterm environment. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss yet another shameful redistricting ruling from the Supreme Court, Donald Trump pulling the plug on Mo Brooks' Senate campaign in Alabama, and a brand-new special election for the top prosecutor's post in America's fourth-largest county. Episode transcript.

Voting rights and criminal justice are on your local ballot this year, with Daniel Nichanian Mar 17, 2022

On this week's episode of The Downballot, we're joined by Daniel Nichanian, editor-in-chief of Bolts Magazine, a new digital magazine devoted to elections that impact voting rights and criminal justice. We discuss far-right efforts to take over local election boards—and the progressives who are using those offices to expand voting rights. We further tackle the huge changes we've seen in recent years in races for district attorney, as well an upcoming recall election of a high-profile progressive reformer in San Francisco. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also analyze how the war in Ukraine is playing out in U.S. elections, the status of redistricting in the five laggard states that have yet to adopt new congressional maps, and a lawsuit challenging whether Oklahoma can hold a special election for the Senate this year. Episode transcript.

North Carolina, South Korea, and why you should Run For Something, with Amanda Litman Mar 10, 2022

On this week's episode of The Downballot, we talk with Amanda Litman, the co-founder of Run for Something, an organization she formed in the wake of the 2016 elections to help young, diverse progressives run for office across the country at all levels of the ballot. Litman tells us about the resources they offer to first-time candidates, some of Run for Something's biggest success stories, and her favorite obscure post that you might not even know is an elected position in many states. We also spend time exploring a trio of different stories out of North Carolina—one concerning Madison Cawthorn, one about redistricting, and one, believe it or not, about Vladimir Putin—and bring you up to speed on the just-concluded presidential election in South Korea.

To learn more about Run for Something, visit their website.

Episode transcript.

Texas primary recap and a look at open Democratic House seats Mar 03, 2022

On the latest episode of The Downballot, David Nir and David Beard recap the action from Texas' Tuesday primaries, including the runoff between conservative Democrat Henry Cuellar and progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros; the demise of Louie Gohmert's political career; and the shocking developments in Texas' 3rd Congressional District, where a new scandal derailed an unexpected runoff. The co-hosts also embark on a deep dive into the world of Democratic open seats in the House, discussing the role of redistricting in prompting retirements and the many ways in which primaries this year have the chance to move the party in a more progressive direction and increase its diversity.

Episode transcript.

Donate to charities helping Ukrainian victims of Putin's illegal war.

Texas primary preview, with Jeff Singer Feb 24, 2022

On the fifth episode of The Downballot, Nir and Beard preview all of the key Texas primary races with Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer. The roster includes progressive Jessica Cisneros' second attempt at booting conservative Democratic Rep. Henry Cueller in the 28th District, plus the absolutely gonzo GOP primary targeting still-under-indictment Attorney General Ken Paxton. Episode transcript.

2022 redistricting roundup, with David Jarman Feb 17, 2022

On the fourth episode of The Downballot, Beard and Nir take a deep dive into redistricting with Daily Kos Elections contributing editor David Jarman. We walk through the major changes that new congressional maps have wrought in some of the biggest states, including New York, Texas, and Michigan, with a stop to gawk at the infighting that's derailing Republicans in Florida and Missouri. Plus, how would you react if your former congressman sent you an email that began, "I don't know what I'm doing?”

Episode transcript.

Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts.

What do Biden’s approval ratings mean for the midterms? with Drew Linzer Feb 10, 2022

On the third episode of The Downballot, Nir and Beard talk about redistricting in Alabama and the GOP primary for governor in Georgia before exploring the world of online polling with Civiqs co-founder Drew Linzer.

Episode transcript.

All you need to know about the 2022 midterms: What races to watch, with Jeff Singer Feb 10, 2022

On the second episode of The Downballot, Beard and Nir are joined by Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer, whose knowledge of elections is unparalleled. Jeff gives us an exceptionally thorough overview of the top contests in the 2022 midterms.

Episode transcript.

How did it all begin? A brief history of Daily Kos, with Markos Moulitsas Feb 10, 2022

On the inaugural episode of The Downballot, Nir and Beard chat with Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas about the history of both Daily Kos and Daily Kos Elections, and why we do the work that we do.

Episode transcript.

Trailer: The Downballot Feb 04, 2022

The Downballot is a new podcast dedicated to covering the thousands of local elections across America for critically important offices, from Senate to city council. With more than 20 years of experience analyzing U.S. elections, Daily Kos provides unparalleled insight into congressional and state races nationwide. Tune in every Thursday!

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