The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary

Latest Episodes:

To All The Midfielders We've Loved Before Jan 25, 2022

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Tanguy Ndombele is out at Tottenham. Giovani Lo Celso appears likely to follow. We look back on a number of midfielders that we've raved over before, including the two from Tottenham and Naby Keita, Adrien Rabiot, and Paul Pogba, and ask what happened with them and do we take any new conclusions from these results?

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Win Probability and Leicester-Tottenham Jan 20, 2022

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What is win probability? Does it "work"? What do we learn from a win probability chart about the game of soccer, and would there be better ways to use such charts to explain the game?

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Transfer as Kidnapping, Top Four Jan 11, 2022

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It's an old-fashioned top four race! Have Tottenham and Arsenal gotten good? Why haven't United gotten good? We break down what remains a close race and try to piece together the evidence that something materially changed for either North London side.
Plus Chris Wood's transfer, which is funny.

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January Transfers Jan 06, 2022

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A bunch of business nearly done or in process and bunch of interesting links. We talk Trippier and Vlahovic, Coutinho and Adama.

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Holiday Mailbag, Pt 1 Dec 29, 2021

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Josh Sargent, the ethics of sports analytics, Wilfried Ndidi and the evolution of midfield tactics, Liverpool's forward targets and more!

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Making Sense of Omicron Football Dec 20, 2021

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A lot of games didn't happen. Most of the ones that did saw their outcomes significantly determined by how severe an omicron outbreak the clubs playing were going through. Does it mean... anything? We talk City, Chelsea, Wolves, Spurs, Arsenal and Liverppol.

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Omicron and Football Dec 14, 2021

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The omicron variant is spreading rapidly in Europe and the US. Tottenham and Manchester United have had to cancel matches because of outbreaks that may not have been omicron but regardless are a model of what we expect to see in sports over the next month. So what is the omicron variant? What are the likely outcomes for European soccer and you know, the world and stuff?

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How Can You Tell a Manager Is Working? Dec 06, 2021

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It's been a very short time since Steven Gerrard, Antonio Conte and Eddie Howe took over their new clubs. It's been even less time since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer left United and Ralf Rangnick took over. There are early indications of potentially significant managerial effects in the numbers of Spurs and Villa, and less so at Newcastle. What does this mean? How do we look at performance and tactical indicators in very small samples when evaluating clubs and managers?

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Ralf Rangnick Nov 29, 2021

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United have a new manager and a new... consultant? We look at Rangnick's limited but striking statistical profile over the last decade and the style of pressing that is evident in the numbers. And then we ask, what will he do with a United squad that is significantly but also clearly not entirely a good fit for this pressing style?

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Ole Out, Arteta ??, Tuchel In Nov 22, 2021

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Things finally went so bad at United that Ole is out but it's not clear any of the underlying problems are solved. Arsenal got whooped and we're on the aggregates beat again. And have Chelsea turned it around (yes, we know they're in first place but unlike with Arsenal, there's a real underlying stats story here).

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