The Dividend Cafe

Bipartisan is Not Always Good For Markets Nov 01, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UxOxda

Election and Economic Insights: November Dividend Cafe with David Bahnsen

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, Managing Partner at The Bahnsen Group, discusses key topics as the U.S. approaches the 2024 election. From his New York City office, David addresses the outlook of the election, the future role of tariffs, and the influence of the Federal Trade Commission and its Commissioner, Lina Khan. He explores potential impacts on monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's actions, commercial real estate loans, and the implications of a Trump or Harris administration on market dynamics. David also touches on the volatility of the yen and concludes with insights on the proportion of the S&P 500 represented by a small number of companies. Stay tuned for Monday's Dividend Cafe episode on economic data and housing updates.

00:00 Introduction and Setting the Scene

00:30 Election and Tariff Talk

04:04 Federal Trade Commission and Regulatory Insights

06:47 Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy Speculations

10:35 Commercial Real Estate and Corporate Credit Outlook

15:28 Currency Dynamics and Market Volatility

18:24 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - October 31, 2024 Oct 31, 2024

Market Recap and Investment Strategies - October 31st Edition

In this Halloween edition of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the down day in the markets, highlighting a 2.76% drop in the NASDAQ and a 378 point drop in the Dow. Key economic updates include a flat interest rate, PCE inflation numbers aligning with the Fed's targets, and lower than expected jobless claims. Brian also elaborates on the investment methodology, focusing on a blend of quantitative screens and in-depth fundamental analysis. Additionally, he emphasizes the undervalued utility sector, which is poised for growth due to increased electricity demands from data centers. He concludes with a personal note on Halloween festivities.

00:00 Market Recap: Halloween Edition 00:45 Economic Indicators and Inflation Insights 01:18 Employment and Wage Trends 02:12 Investment Methodology Explained 03:55 Utilities: The Underappreciated Sector 05:06 Closing Thoughts and Halloween Wishes

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - October 30, 2024 Oct 30, 2024

Market Recap: Earnings, Payrolls, and Economic Data

In today's Dividend Cafe episode from October 30th, Brian Szytel provides an overview of the current market trends from West Palm Beach, Florida. The day saw a slight market downturn despite positive data on earnings and economic indicators. The ADP private payroll report exceeded expectations, with new private payroll gains at 233 compared to the expected 113. Interest rates slightly increased, closing up three basis points on the 10-year note. There was also better-than-expected preliminary third-quarter GDP growth at 2.8%, driven by consumer spending. Brian discussed market sensitivity to interest rates and the upcoming PCE inflation read and non-farm payroll report. The episode also addressed the complexities of trading around the election and a question on energy rig counts and productivity. Looking ahead, Brian will return to discuss the implications of the PCE data on the economy and markets.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:18 Economic Data Highlights

00:40 Interest Rates and Market Reactions

01:11 Upcoming Economic Reports

01:24 GDP and Consumer Spending Insights

01:58 Election Trading Strategies

02:43 Energy Sector Update

03:05 Conclusion and Upcoming Topics

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - October 29, 2024 Oct 29, 2024

Market Update and Earnings Insights: October 29 Edition

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel presents an overview of the market conditions on October 29, 2023, reporting mixed results with the Dow down 154 points, the S&P slightly positive, and the NASDAQ up by 0.7%. Key topics include the impact of earnings reports from major companies, the movement in 10-year bond yields, and job openings data. Brian also addresses a viewer question on the merits of index ETFs versus actively managed funds in the municipal bond space, emphasizing the importance of active management. The episode concludes with a preview of upcoming economic data releases.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:47 Bond Yields and Job Market Insights

01:43 Upcoming Economic Events and Market Impact

02:06 Investment Strategies: Active vs. Passive Management

03:30 Conclusion and Upcoming Reports

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - October 28, 2024 Oct 28, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4hkQJOZ

In this episode, David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer at The Bahnsen Group, provides a detailed market recap, highlighting the recent rise in the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ, and increases in bond yields. He mentions NVIDIA's impressive market cap and sector performances, noting financials' gains amid declines in energy. Bahnsen also shares insights into the upcoming U.S. election, drawing parallels with Japan's parliamentary changes, and discusses global public policy, economic data, and energy production. Additionally, the episode covers significant health advancements, including malaria eradication in Egypt, and discusses the broader economic implications of past budget deficits, especially during Ronald Reagan's presidency. The episode concludes by touching on the current earnings season and hinting at a forthcoming significant event.1

00:00 Welcome to Monday Dividend Cafe

01:03 Market Overview and Key Highlights

01:43 Tech Sector Insights and Trivia

02:15 Bond Yields and Market Reactions

03:31 Sector Performance and Oil Price Dynamics

04:18 U.S. Election and Voter Sentiments

04:51 Turnout vs. Persuasion in Elections

05:12 Japan's Political Shift

05:45 Election Polls and Predictions

06:42 Economic Indicators and Market Trends

07:18 Energy Production Insights

07:55 Electricity Demand and Data Centers

09:06 Global Health Milestones

09:35 Historical Budget Deficits

10:22 Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Special ELECTION Q&A Edition Oct 25, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UiSoe3

Navigating Market Dynamics Amidst the 2024 Election: Insights and Strategies

In this special edition of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen delves into the 2024 election's potential market impacts, answering viewer questions about various outcomes, such as a Trump or Harris win with a Republican Senate. The discussion highlights the difficulty of predicting market reactions to election results, touching on speculative sectors like crypto and private prisons, and advising against short-term trading based on predictions. The episode also explores the economic implications of tariffs, the interplay between gas prices and elections, and the influence of national debt on growth. Bahnsen underscores the significant role of public opinion in driving fiscal policy changes, emphasizing the electorate's responsibility in addressing the U.S. debt situation. Throughout, there's a focus on market sentiment, economic expectations, and anticipating sector-specific movements in response to election outcomes.

00:00 Introduction and Overview

01:49 Election 2024: Key Questions and Context

03:10 Market Implications of Senate Control

06:35 Analyzing the Presidential Race

10:07 Speculative Trades and Market Reactions

12:42 Potential Advisors and Cabinet Members

15:37 Speculations on a Second Trump Term

16:40 Market Expectations Leading Up to the Election

18:03 The Impact of Tariffs on the Economy

19:33 Political Dysfunction and Financial Assets

21:49 Gas Prices and Election Correlation

23:05 Fracking and Energy Policies

24:38 Emerging Markets and the Election

25:56 National Debt and Economic Growth

27:09 Catalysts for Addressing U.S. Debt

28:02 Final Thoughts and Viewer Questions

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - October 24, 2024 Oct 24, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UiSoe3

Market Overview and Economic Data Insights - October 24th

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the mixed performance in the markets on October 24th, with the S&P 500 up 0.21%, Nasdaq up 0.76%, and the Dow down 140 points. He highlights a decline in interest rates driven by economic data, including better-than-expected initial jobless claims and mixed PMI data showing services outperforming manufacturing. Szytel notes a significant drop in prices paid in the services sector, suggesting potential disinflationary trends. He also touches on new home sales and the implications of rising interest rates amid expanding debts and deficits. The episode concludes with a mention of NVIDIA's market cap comparison to G7 countries and the performance of defensive equity portfolios.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:26 Economic Data Insights 01:23 PMI Data Analysis 02:22 Interest Rates and Fiscal Policy 03:14 NVIDIA Market Cap Commentary 03:40 Client Portfolio Performance 04:18 Closing Remarks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - October 23, 2024 Oct 23, 2024

Market Downturns and Rising Interest Rates: Insights from Dividend Cafe

In this October 23rd episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel discusses the latest downward trends in the equity market, with the Dow down 409 points, the S&P down nine-tenths of a percent, and the Nasdaq down 1.6 percent. The primary factors contributing to this are rising bond market yields, now at 4.25% for 10-year bonds. The episode explores the impact of these changes on various sectors including housing, where existing home sales have declined by 1%, hitting numbers last seen in September 2010. Additionally, the Beige Book Survey indicates flat or slightly declining economic activity in nine out of twelve precincts, and the Bank of Canada has cut rates by 50 basis points. Brian also anticipates upcoming economic reports on initial claims, flash PMI data, and new home sales.

00:00 Market Overview and Key Indices Performance

00:21 Impact of Rising Bond Yields

01:05 Housing Market Analysis

02:28 Personal Anecdote on Real Estate

02:58 Current Real Estate Market Dynamics

04:14 Economic Indicators and Predictions

04:51 Upcoming Economic Data and Conclusion

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - October 22, 2024 Oct 22, 2024

Market Insights and Economic Outlook - October 22nd Edition

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an analysis of the day's market performance, noting minimal changes in major indices with the Dow down by six points, S&P slightly negative, and Nasdaq slightly positive. He discusses the rise in 10-year Treasury yields and attributes stock market movements to fundamental factors including positive earnings and economic growth, rather than political speculation. Szytel also addresses elevated volatility and political uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentals. Additional updates include comments from San Francisco Fed President Daley on interest rates and upcoming economic data releases.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:19 Interest Rates and Bond Market Insights

00:38 Political Influence on Markets

02:27 Focus on Fundamentals

02:36 Economic News and Upcoming Data

03:26 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - October 21, 2024 Oct 21, 2024

Today's Post -https://bahnsen.co/4hfQk0k

Dividend Cafe: Market Movements, Economic Indicators & Financial Insights

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David provides an in-depth analysis of current market dynamics, including stock market movements, bond yields, and economic indicators as the election approaches. Detailed discussions cover shifts in global GDP from major economies such as the U.S., China, and Japan, as well as updates on the housing market with a focus on housing starts and mortgage applications. The episode also reviews the recent performance of energy markets, particularly oil and natural gas pipeline companies, and explores the concept of a neutral interest rate's impact on economic stability. The episode concludes with a preview of upcoming content, including a special Q&A session.

00:00 Welcome to the Monday Edition of Dividend Cafe

01:06 Market Recap: Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ Performance

03:49 Historical Economic Insights: US, China, and Japan

06:11 India's Economic Growth and Future Projections

06:46 Bitcoin and NASDAQ Correlation

07:19 Election Insights and Market Implications

08:22 Economic Overview: Retail Sales and Unemployment

09:01 Housing Market Insights: Declining Starts and Sentiment

10:27 Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Predictions

10:55 Energy Sector Update: Oil and Natural Gas

11:42 Addressing Doomsdayism and Modern Farming

12:08 Interest Rates: Finding the Sweet Spot

15:06 Concluding Thoughts and Upcoming Content

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Practically Dealing with an Expensive Market Oct 18, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48eT1eh

Navigating Market Valuations and Strategic Investments Amid Election Outcomes

In this week's Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen from The Bahnsen Group examines the complexities of market valuations, focusing on the significance of the price to earnings ratio and the importance of sector-specific valuations. He discusses the implications of holding heavily weighted indexes like the S&P 500, emphasizing the need for understanding one's investment strategy, especially in the context of market-wide and sector-specific overvaluation. The episode also explores the concept of dividend growth investing and differentiates between valuation and volatility, stressing the long-term risks of high valuations. David explains his system to avoid overvalued assets and shares insights on government debt, supported by a chart on average returns based on forward valuations. Viewers are invited to submit questions for an upcoming special episode on the economic impact of the election.

00:00 Introduction and Purpose of Dividend Cafe

00:42 Election Impact and Viewer Questions

03:57 Valuations and Market Multiples Explained

08:28 Sector Valuations and Market Concentration

11:36 Investment Philosophy and Strategic Allocation

11:58 Understanding Market Overvaluation

12:55 Strategies for Dealing with Overvaluation

13:24 The Role of Investor Behavior

14:24 Valuation Across Asset Classes

15:51 Volatility vs. Overvaluation

17:33 The Fear of Permanent Loss

19:07 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - October 17, 2024 Oct 17, 2024

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel delivers a market and economic update for October 17th. The Dow showed a positive gain of 161 points, while the S&P and Nasdaq remained flat. Interest rates saw a slight increase, with the 10-year Treasury note rising 7 basis points to 4.09%. Brian reviewed the latest economic news, including initial jobless claims at 241,000—below expectations, positive retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index showing improvement. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%, citing slow, yet non-recessionary growth. Inflation in Europe has fallen to 1.8%, while unemployment stands at a historically low 6.4%. Brian also discussed the Phillips Curve's relevance and addressed a reader's question on credit card fees and their impact on inflation. He wrapped up with a reminder about forthcoming housing market data and the Long Form Dividend Cafe report.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:43 Economic Data and Job Market Insights

01:25 Retail Sales and Manufacturing Updates

01:55 European Economic Conditions

02:25 Inflation and Unemployment Analysis

03:40 Credit Card Debt and Inflation

04:48 Conclusion and Upcoming Reports

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - October 16, 2024 Oct 16, 2024

Market Update and Economic Insights: October 16th

In this Dividend Cafe episode, Brian Szytel from the Bahnsen Group provides a comprehensive market update from their Newport Beach headquarters. Highlights include a positive day for all three major indices, with the Dow up 337 points, S&P rising by 0.5%, and NASDAQ increasing by 0.28%. Interest rates saw a minor dip, while sectors such as financials, real estate, and utilities experienced significant gains. Import prices dropped more than expected, largely due to a fall in fuel prices. Mortgage rates increased by 16 basis points, and a slight steepening of the yield curve was observed. Upcoming economic data includes initial jobless claims, retail sales, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, and industrial production.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:50 Economic Indicators and Import Prices

01:26 Mortgage Rates and Yield Curve Analysis

02:35 Upcoming Economic Reports

03:01 Conclusion and Sign-Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - October 15, 2024 Oct 15, 2024

In this episode, recorded on October 15th, host Brian Szytel reports on a generally down day in the markets. The Dow dropped 324 points, the S&P 500 fell by 0.75%, and the NASDAQ decreased by over 1%. He discusses the weaker-than-expected New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index and its ramifications. Additionally, he touches on comments from the San Francisco Fed President on interest rates and inflation. Brian highlights recent market activities, including a slight rally in bonds and considerations for small cap exposures in growth equity portfolios. Recommendations for asset allocation and insights from the recent annual asset manager week are also shared, emphasizing the importance of active selectivity and defensiveness. He wraps up with a note on the upcoming election and answers a question about adding a small cap sleeve to the portfolio.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:29 Manufacturing Index and Fed Updates

01:26 Bond Market and Small Cap Exposure

01:45 Asset Allocation Insights

03:09 Small Cap Portfolio Strategy

03:55 Conclusion and Q&A

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - October, 14, 2024 Oct 14, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Y9gI2S

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David provides an analysis of the latest market and economic trends. The discussion begins with the unusual trading day where the stock market was open but the bond market remained closed, highlighting a 200-point rise in the Dow and strong performances in the technology and utilities sectors. Attention is given to Broadway's return to pre-COVID attendance levels amidst high ticket prices. David explores the importance of Treasury Department personnel, U.S. debt structure, and its ramifications, along with insights into the producer price index and household debt levels. The housing market remains stagnant, with predictions of mortgage rates staying around 5% until early 2026 and minor Fed rate cuts expected soon. Additionally, there is a focus on the dip in oil prices despite OPEC's reduced demand forecast and the performance of energy stocks. Listeners are advised to visit DividendCafe.com for more detailed analyses on the yield curve, recessions, and the critique of doomsday predictions.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe

00:27 Market Observations and Insights

01:34 Daily Market Performance

02:49 Sector Performance Highlights

03:12 Public Policy and Economic Data

03:42 Treasury Department's Role in Debt Management

05:04 Understanding Treasury Notes and Federal Debt

05:53 Impact of Fed Rate Cuts on Deficit

06:30 Political Tribalization and Election Trends

07:44 Producer Prices and Household Debt Insights

09:07 Broadway Show Attendance and Housing Market

10:24 Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Oil Market

11:15 Final Thoughts and Resources

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Consideration Being Missed Oct 11, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Y5HlWw

Strategic Acquisitions and Private Markets: Insights from Dividend Cafe

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, managing partner at the Bahnsen Group, discusses various financial and investment themes. He covers the importance of his firm's week-long meetings with portfolio managers in New York, where they engaged in portfolio introspection, macroeconomic discussions, and considered potential opportunities and risks. Major topics include inflation, subdued growth expectations due to 'Japanification', and rich stock market valuations with concentrated sector impacts. The focus then shifts to strategic acquisitions in private markets, especially public companies acquiring private firms to address a backlog of unsold businesses, which could result in significant M&A activity. David also highlights the role of private credit in funding leveraged buyouts, emphasizing the robustness and low systemic risk within the private credit market. Listeners are encouraged to explore additional insights and charts on DividendCafe.com.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe

00:33 Portfolio Management Insights

02:00 Macroeconomic Considerations

04:32 Inflation and Growth Expectations

05:52 Valuations and Market Dynamics

06:38 China's Structural Challenges

07:09 Private Markets and Strategic Acquisitions

13:44 The Role of Private Credit

16:54 Conclusion and Additional Resources

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - October 10, 2024 Oct 10, 2024

Market Update and Economic Insights - October 10th

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on October 10th, host Brian Szytel discusses the day's quiet market activity, with slight decreases in both the Dow and S&P indices and an unchanged bond market. The CPI report showed a slight increase in inflation, driven primarily by shelter and food costs. Initial jobless claims were higher than expected, partly due to a Boeing strike and Hurricane Helene. The episode also features a Q&A about the potential deflationary environment and its challenges. Listeners are encouraged to reach out with questions.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:27 Inflation Data Insights

00:53 Jobless Claims and Economic Impact

01:28 Q&A on Inflation and Deflation

01:49 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - October 9, 2024 Oct 09, 2024

Market Update and Economic Insights Amidst Hurricane Threat

The October 9th edition of Dividend Cafe discusses the positive trends in the stock market, with the Dow rising 431 points and the S&P and NASDAQ also seeing gains. The video highlights a slight increase in interest rates due to favorable economic data and the FOMC's leaning towards a 50 basis point rate cut, focusing more on employment than inflation, which appears to be subsiding. Meanwhile, Hurricane Milton's impact on Florida and its potential effects on oil production are noted, leading to fluctuations in the energy market with heightened volatility and bullish sentiment in oil prices. The episode also addresses the concept of money velocity post-financial crisis and its implications on economic demand. Viewers are encouraged to reach out with questions and are offered thoughts and prayers for those in the Gulf amid the hurricane threat.

00:00 Market Overview and Positive Day Recap

00:41 Federal Reserve Meeting Insights

01:14 Hurricane Milton and Market Impact

01:48 Energy Market Volatility

03:11 Understanding Money Supply and Velocity

04:23 Closing Remarks and Well Wishes

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - October 8, 2024 Oct 08, 2024

Market Updates and Economic Concerns on October 8th

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an overview of the financial markets on October 8th. The Dow closed up by about 126 points, and the S&P and NASDAQ showed positive returns as well. Interest rates showed a slight downward movement, and a bond auction did not meet expectations. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose marginally, but remains lower than the historical average. Concerns loom over the upcoming election and its effects on taxes and inflation. Market concerns also focus on Hurricane Milton, which has been downgraded to a category four storm but still poses a significant threat to central Florida. The U.S. trade deficit was slightly lower than expected, due to increased oil exports. The host extends thoughts and prayers to those affected in Florida and invites listener questions.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:08 Economic Calendar and Market Performance

00:44 Small Business Optimism and Economic Concerns

01:23 Hurricane Milton Update

02:01 Trade Data Insights

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - October 7, 2024 Oct 07, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dAvbL5

Dividend Cafe: Market Insights and Global Events Impact

On this Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer of the Bahnsen Group, discusses significant market trends and global events affecting the economy. He covers various topics including the recent jobs report, market performance, especially in tech stocks and IPO activity, and the dynamics of monetary policy with a focus on upcoming Fed rate decisions. The episode delves into dividend growth investing, highlighting the evolving role of dividends and stock buybacks in total returns and dives into geopolitical tensions, particularly the aftermath of the Hamas attack on Israel. The discussion ends with notable economic stories such as Argentina's public policy shift on rent control. Bahnsen invites financial advisors to engage directly with him for specialized content and closes by promoting additional content available on the Dividend Cafe platform.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe

00:44 Housekeeping and Announcements

03:27 Market Recap and Analysis

10:06 Geopolitical Tensions and Impacts

12:32 Economic Data and Housing Market

15:02 Energy Sector Insights

16:07 Final Thoughts and Upcoming Content

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Affected by China Unwillingly and Unknowingly Oct 04, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4gJcvvo

China's Market Shift and Economic Challenges

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen discusses recent developments concerning China's economy and market performance. Bahnsen highlights China's underperformance in comparison to the S&P 500 and the subsequent market rally triggered by policy interventions from the Chinese government. Key issues in China include declining GDP growth, high youth unemployment, and a housing market crisis affecting economic stability. The Chinese government is addressing these challenges with monetary policy changes, including rate reductions and increased public debt. Bahnsen explains how these measures draw parallels to past economic bubbles in the U.S. and Japan. Despite the short-term market rally, Bahnsen is cautious about the long-term impact, emphasizing potential global economic repercussions and trade dynamics influenced by upcoming U.S. elections. The episode underscores a prudent investment approach, advocating for consistent philosophy amidst volatile market conditions.

00:00 Introduction and Recent Meetings Recap

00:55 China's Market Performance and Sentiment Shift

03:00 Economic Challenges in China

04:45 Policy Responses and Measures

07:15 Comparative Analysis and Historical Context

10:19 Investment Implications and Future Outlook

14:17 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - October 3, 2024 Oct 03, 2024

Market Updates and Dividend Strategies: October 3rd

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market update from New York City, noting a decrease in the Dow and S&P and a slight increase in the 10-year yield. Key economic indicators include above-expectation initial jobless claims and a positive Services PMI. Dividend reinvestment strategies are discussed, highlighting customization based on client needs. The episode also examines the relative performance of the US dollar amid geopolitical tensions and global monetary policies, emphasizing its role as a safe haven in times of unrest.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:31 Economic Indicators and Jobless Claims

01:23 Dividends and Portfolio Management

02:29 Currency and Dollar Dynamics

04:20 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - October 2, 2024 Oct 02, 2024

Market Updates and Economic Insights: October 2nd Edition

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel reports from New York City during his annual asset manager trip. He provides a market update for October 2nd, noting a quiet day for stocks with minor movements in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. Szytel also discusses economic data, including better-than-expected ADP private payroll numbers, and looks ahead to upcoming jobless claims and non-farm payroll reports. Additionally, he delves into China's market trends and the strategy of focusing on individual business fundamentals in the emerging world.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe

00:22 Market Recap: A Quiet Day

00:48 Economic Updates: Payrolls and Job Openings

01:46 China Market Insights

02:38 Investment Strategy and Emerging Markets

03:13 Upcoming Economic Data and Conclusion

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - October 1, 2024 Oct 01, 2024

Economic Update and Market Insights: October 1st Summary

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel provides a market update from New York City on October 1st. He discusses the day's negative market performance influenced by Middle East tension between Iran and Israel, which led to increased oil prices and slight declines in stocks. Key economic data points include unchanged ISA manufacturing data for August and a rise in job openings as per the JOLTS report, indicating a balanced labor market. Szytel also addresses a viewer question on evaluating stock prices and dividends, emphasizing the importance of fundamental analysis over high yields. Overall, the episode delivers a blend of market analysis and economic news with a cautionary note on ongoing geopolitical tensions.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe

00:10 Market Overview and Middle East Tensions

00:42 Economic Calendar Updates

00:57 Labor Market Insights

01:57 Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact

02:04 Ask TBG: Stock Analysis

02:41 Closing Remarks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

SPECIAL ISSUE: 2024 ELECTION EDITION Sep 27, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/480e8kF

Election 2024: Market Implications and Historical Insights

In this week's special edition of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, managing partner of the Bahnsen Group, provides in-depth political and market commentary ahead of the 2024 election. He discusses the historical implications of different political parties on market performance, the impact of potential election outcomes, and his insights as a lifelong conservative. David emphasizes the resilience of markets regardless of political control, the importance of gridlock, and the nuanced effects on various sectors such as energy and financials. He also highlights the significance of governmental debt, tax policies, and the critical role of personnel in shaping economic policies. For more detailed analysis, charts, and historical data, David directs listeners to the written version available at DividendCafe.com.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe

01:05 Historical Context of Elections and Markets

03:54 Partisan Perspectives and Market Impacts

07:55 Market Trends and Political Gridlock

12:25 Sector-Specific Analysis

17:10 Tax Policies and Economic Implications

20:32 Tariffs and Trade Policies

22:49 Debt, Spending, and Long-Term Economic Growth

25:06 Energy Policies and Market Outcomes

27:30 The Importance of Personnel in Policy

30:09 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - September 26, 2024 Sep 26, 2024

Market Recap and China's Economic Stimulus

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach, Florida on a generally positive market day. He discusses recent stimuli enacted by the People's Bank of China to spur economic growth, including lowering mortgage and deposit rates. China faces deflation with PPI at -1.8% and significant real estate declines. Despite market weaknesses, global GDP remains relatively stable at 3%. U.S. jobless claims slightly beat expectations, third-quarter GDP remains unchanged at 3%, and durable goods orders exceeded expectations. Chinese stock performance and its impact on U.S. markets are also examined.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:24 China's Economic Stimulus and Its Impact

00:43 Detailed Analysis of China's Economic Indicators

01:46 Global Market Reactions and Future Outlook

02:22 US Economic Data and Market Performance

02:57 Closing Remarks and Upcoming Events

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - September 25, 2024 Sep 25, 2024

Market Recap and Insights on Private Credit - September 25th

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a comprehensive market recap for September 25th, including fluctuating market figures with the Dow decreasing by 293 points and the S&P down by 0.2%. He discusses the steepening yield curve and a stronger dollar. Further insights include housing market data with new home sales down 4.7%, building permits, and mortgage rates dropping to a two-year low. Brian also addresses questions about private credit and its risks compared to the bond market. Tune in for more economic data updates expected tomorrow, including initial jobless claims, durable goods, GDP revision, and pending home sales.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:57 Market Recap and Economic Data

01:04 Private Credit Market Insights

01:50 Housing Market Update

02:53 Upcoming Economic Data

03:18 Conclusion and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - September 24, 2024 Sep 24, 2024

Market Update & China's Economic Stimulus Analysis - September 24

In today's episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel offers a market overview for September 24. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq showed incremental gains, reaching record highs for the year. Significant highlights include a detailed analysis of China's robust economic stimulus measures aimed at revitalizing its sluggish economy, which has prompted rallies in Chinese and commodity stocks. Additionally, the episode covers U.S. consumer sentiment, showing lower than expected figures, and updates on the Richmond manufacturing index and Case-Shiller home price index, exposing a slower rate of home price appreciation. Tune in for more insights and upcoming real estate data.

00:00 Welcome and Market Overview

00:57 Chinese Market Stimulus

03:02 US Consumer Sentiment and Economic Indicators

04:02 Upcoming Data and Closing Remarks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe - Monday September 23, 2024 Sep 23, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3MTHck3

Monday Market Recap and Economic Insights: A Dive into Wall Street, the Fed, and Public Policy

In this Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, David Bonson provides a broad overview of market activities and economic insights. The discussion includes the market's performance, the Fed's recent actions, and notable movements in sectors such as energy and healthcare. Commentary on the semiconductor and technology sectors' diverse outcomes is provided, along with a critique of the 'shiny objects' investment trend. Bonson also explores the shifting landscape of corporate debt origination, the escalating geopolitical situation between Israel and Hezbollah, and public policy updates, including U.S. legislative measures and election speculations. The episode concludes with thoughts on the coherence of labor market and economic health indicators, recent housing market statistics, and the potential paths for future Fed rate adjustments.

00:00 Introduction to Monday's Dividend Cafe

00:48 Market Recap: Uneventful Day

01:20 Sector Performance and Tech Analysis

02:58 Shiny Objects and Investment Lessons

05:49 Bond Yields and Corporate Debt

06:26 Private Credit Market Insights

07:26 Geopolitical News and Public Policy

09:33 Presidential Campaign Updates

13:03 Economic Indicators and Housing Market

15:35 Fed's Future Moves and Investment Decisions

17:44 Conclusion and Upcoming Special Issue

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What the Fed Has Done and Why and Where We Go from Here Sep 20, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47CEQzA

Understanding Recent Developments in Monetary Policy with Dividend Cafe

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David dives deep into the intricacies of monetary policy, recording the session after the market closed on Thursday. The discussion covers significant changes in monetary policy over the past 15 years, starting from the financial crisis in 2008 to the current policies in 2023. David explains the impact of interest rates and quantitative tightening on financial markets and the broader economy. Key topics include the actions of the Federal Reserve, the balance between short-term and long-term interest rates, and the implications for various investment strategies. David humorously downplays the idea of finding a 'hot trade' but emphasizes understanding the broader economic context. As the episode concludes, listeners are encouraged to subscribe and look out for the upcoming special election issue of Dividend Cafe.

00:00 Introduction and Overview

01:27 The Importance of Monetary Policy

02:55 A Quick History of Monetary Policy

05:57 Recent Developments and Rate Changes

08:43 Quantitative Tightening Explained

11:29 The Fed's Diverging Policies

16:44 Impact on Markets and Future Outlook

24:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - September 19, 2024 Sep 19, 2024

Market Reaction to Fed's 50 Basis Point Rate Cut

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, dated Thursday, September 19th, Brian Szytel reviews the market's positive response to the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point interest rate cut. The Dow rose by over 500 points, and both the S&P and NASDAQ saw significant gains. Despite the rally in risk assets, the 10-year bond yield remained unchanged. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that future rate cuts might not match this recent one as the Fed responds to evolving economic data. Employment data showed signs of softening, but jobless claims beat expectations. Housing numbers were weaker than expected, though prices increased slightly. Manufacturing showed modest improvement, and volatility for the day was lower. The episode concludes with a reminder to tune in for tomorrow's long-form edition and an invitation for viewer questions.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:08 Fed Rate Cut and Market Reaction

01:04 Employment and Labor Market Insights

01:29 Interest Rates and Economic Indicators

02:25 Housing and Manufacturing Data

02:57 Conclusion and Upcoming Content

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - September 18, 2024 Sep 18, 2024

Fed Interest Rate Cuts and Market Reactions – September 18 Update

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from Newport Beach office at TBG headquarters discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points, forecasting another 100 basis point cut by the end of 2025. He gives a detailed analysis of the interest rate trajectory, market reactions including Dow's closing, and bond market trends. He also highlights the August housing starts, which exceeded expectations, and upcoming economic indicators like jobless claims and manufacturing data. Brian invites questions and looks forward to the next update.

00:00 Introduction and Welcome 00:11 Federal Reserve Meeting Summary 01:32 Market Reactions and Analysis 02:19 Housing Market Updates 02:47 Upcoming Economic Data 02:59 Conclusion and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - September 17, 2024 Sep 17, 2024

Market Insights Ahead of Fed Decision - September 17 Update

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market update from the Newport Beach office on Tuesday, September 17. The day saw relatively quiet trading with slight fluctuations as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate policy. Key points discussed include better-than-expected retail sales and significant improvements in industrial production, particularly influenced by the auto sector. The bond market and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts are also analyzed, highlighting concerns about market pricing and corporate earnings expectations. The episode concludes with a look ahead to the Fed's upcoming policy meeting.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:30 Retail Sales and Industrial Production Insights

01:08 Bond Market and Fed Expectations

02:11 Market Pricing and Future Outlook

02:45 Conclusion and Upcoming Fed Meeting

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe - Monday September 16, 2024 Sep 16, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4eJ46qf

Monday Market Update: Fed Policies, US Steel Deal, and Economic Trends

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David provides an update on the current state of the market, touching on various topics including public policy, the Federal Reserve, housing, and the economy. Key highlights include the proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel and the Biden administration's stance on blocking the deal. Market performance is discussed, with the Dow Jones hitting an all-time high, while tech stocks underperform. The host also covers trends in bond yields, foreign investment in US Treasury debt, and current US corporate earnings projections. Additional topics include the New York Manufacturing Index, the rising number of 401k plan participants, and mortgage-free homes in the US. The episode wraps up with thoughts on the state of the office market, particularly in Singapore, and Amazon's policy change requiring office staff to return full-time. Other subjects include the Fed's upcoming meeting, the global reduction in abject poverty, and the role of venture capital in contrast to dividend growth investing.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:24 U.S. Steel Acquisition Controversy

01:45 Market Performance and Fed Updates

03:06 Bond Yields and Foreign Investment

06:28 Economic Indicators and Housing Market

08:08 Office Market Insights

10:01 Fed Meeting and Rate Cut Speculations

10:49 Global Poverty Reduction

11:36 Dividend Growth vs. Venture Capital

13:09 Conclusion and Upcoming Updates

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Wrong Way to Think Sep 13, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3XqVRYF

Navigating the Investor Mindset: The Challenge of Mainstream Versus Conviction-Based Investing

In this week's episode of 'Dividend Cafe,' David Bahnsen, the managing partner of The Bahnsen Group, discusses the philosophical and practical challenges of growth investing in tech-heavy markets. He recounts a conversation with Rajiv, a seasoned growth manager, who argues against the mentality of 'closet indexing' and stresses the importance of sticking to one's investment convictions. David further elaborates on the impact of tech sector weighting on market performance, the historical context of homeownership rates, and current economic trends including asset prices and wage growth. He emphasizes the need for prudence over popularity in investment strategies and hints at an upcoming in-depth political analysis for investors.

00:00 Introduction to This Week's Dividend Cafe

01:06 Meeting with a Prominent Growth Manager

03:07 The Philosophy of Indexing and Outperformance

07:48 Moral and Practical Considerations in Investment

12:43 Current Market Analysis and Predictions

14:30 Home Ownership Trends Across Generations

19:10 Final Thoughts and Upcoming Topics

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - September 12, 2024 Sep 12, 2024

Market Gains and Disinflationary Signs on Dividend Cafe

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the positive movements in the markets on September 12th, with the Dow gaining 235 points, the S&P rising for the fourth straight day, and minor gains in the NASDAQ and 10-year Treasury note. The focus is on the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) data showing a disinflationary trend with a year-over-year number under 2%, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's shift from inflation to employment and economic growth concerns. Revised July PPI figures indicate deflation. Initial jobless claims align with expectations, supporting the 'soft landing' economic narrative.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:37 Inflation Data Insights 01:23 Federal Reserve and Bond Market Dynamics 02:24 Revised PPI Numbers and Jobless Claims 03:05 Conclusion and Sign-Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - September 11, 2024 Sep 11, 2024

September 11 Market Update and Inflation Insights

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel begins with a somber remembrance of the September 11 terrorist attacks, offering thoughts and prayers to those affected. He proceeds with market commentary, noting an initial drop and subsequent recovery, likely influenced by the recent debate between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Szytel discusses key inflation data, highlighting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers are in line with Federal Reserve targets. He also touches on the implications for upcoming interest rate decisions and the balance sheet. Finally, Seitel provides a preview of forthcoming economic data, including initial jobless claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI).

00:00 Introduction and Remembrance of 9/11

00:33 Market Opening and Debate Impact

01:05 Market Performance and Analysis

01:51 Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Expectations

03:34 Upcoming Economic Indicators and Closing Remarks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - September 10, 2024 Sep 10, 2024

Market Update and Economic Insights - September 10th

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market update for Tuesday, September 10th. He discusses the mixed performance of the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ, along with a decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield. Key economic insights include the NFIB small business survey results, inflation concerns, upcoming CPI data, and banking regulation updates from the Fed. Additionally, there's an analysis on dividend yields relative to stock price appreciation and a brief mention of the Fed's quantitative tightening efforts. The episode concludes with a note on the evening's Harris-Trump debate.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:48 Economic Indicators and Surveys

01:55 Banking Sector Updates

02:46 Upcoming Economic Data

02:57 Dividend Yield Discussion

04:03 Federal Reserve and Quantitative Tightening

04:46 Conclusion and Sign-Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The-Dividend Cafe - Monday September 9, 2024 Sep 09, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dWntMb

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel steps in for David to discuss recent market trends and the current economic landscape as of September 9th. Brian highlights a significant market rebound following last week's downturn and analyzes recent employment reports and their market impacts. He also covers the Fed's monetary policy direction, market internals, and inflation rates in the US and China. Additional discussion points include Boeing's labor deal, consumer credit and wholesale inventory data, housing market conditions, and various relevant news items such as the Google antitrust case and upcoming political debates. The episode concludes with energy market updates and an ongoing lawsuit involving the Dakota pipeline and Greenpeace.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:49 Employment Reports and Market Reactions

01:38 Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Speculations

03:05 Sector Performance and Company News

03:55 Global Economic Indicators

07:07 US Housing Market Update

09:04 Energy Sector Insights

11:20 Upcoming Economic Events and Conclusion

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - September 5, 2024 Sep 05, 2024

Market Updates and Economic Insights: September 5th Edition

In today's episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach, Florida, sharing a mixed day in the markets. The Dow closed down by 219 points and the S&P fell by a third of a percent, though the NASDAQ saw a slight increase. The 10-year yield dropped 3 basis points, while the yield curve remains flat. Employment numbers showed weaker-than-expected private payroll growth for August, continuing a five-month trend of declining numbers. Other indicators such as ISM services and initial jobless claims were slightly better than expected. Looking ahead, non-farm payrolls are due tomorrow, and market expectations indicate potential rate cuts by the Fed through the end of 2025. Seitel wraps up with cautious optimism and invites audience questions.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:40 Employment Numbers and Economic Indicators

01:58 Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations

03:03 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What Have They Come Up With Now? Sep 06, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cOxt92

Understanding Single Stock ETFs and the Demand-Side Dynamics in Investing

In this week's episode of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, recording from New York City, delves into the concept of single stock ETFs. Despite not recommending such financial products, the discussion highlights the importance of understanding them from a philosophical perspective about investing, human nature, and the intersection of supply and demand. David criticizes these products as tools for high-risk, intraday speculation but argues against banning them, focusing instead on the demand side as a solution to financial recklessness. The episode also covers the inversion of the yield curve, its implications for sectors like healthcare and consumer staples, and the negative multiplier effect of government debt on GDP growth.

00:00 Introduction and Personal Update

00:56 The New Financial Product: Single Stock ETFs

04:28 Philosophical Insights on Financial Products

09:42 Market Commentary: Yield Curve and Recession Predictions

12:15 The Negative Multiplier Effect and Government Debt

14:01 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - September 4, 2024 Sep 04, 2024

Market Analysis and Economic Indicators: September 4th Update

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market update from Palm Beach, Florida, on September 4th. The discussion covers the aftermath of a significant market drawdown driven by weak manufacturing data and a sell-off in the technology sector, particularly semiconductors. Notably, the yield curve, which had been inverted for over two years, has now become flat, raising discussions about potential economic contractions. Szytel also highlights the sectors likely to perform well in the current economic cycle, such as staples, healthcare, and energy, and notes a trend towards dividend growth in these sectors. Additional economic indicators discussed include the lower-than-expected new job openings (JOLTS report), unchanged layoffs, increased factory orders, and mixed regional economic activity from the Fed's Beige Book. Upcoming data releases, like the ADP employment number, initial jobless claims, ISM services numbers, and the nonfarm payroll number, are also anticipated.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:46 Yield Curve Dynamics

02:40 Economic Indicators and Sector Performance

03:40 Job Market and Upcoming Data Releases

05:02 Conclusion and Viewer Engagement

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - September 3, 2024 Sep 03, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cXvPC2

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/03/nvidia-tumbles-leading-chip-stocks-lower.html

Market Recap: Tech Sell-off and Economic Data Analysis

In this edition of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer at the Bahnsen Group, provides an update on market performance for the Tuesday, September 3rd, following the Labor Day holiday. Bahnsen discusses the significant downturn in the major indexes with the S&P 500 down 2.1%, NASDAQ down 3.25%, and the Dow Jones down 1.5% due to a tech-driven sell-off led by semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA. He also covers the mixed economic data, including the fifth month of contraction in ISM manufacturing numbers and the upward revision of the Q2 real GDP. Additionally, Bahnsen touches on NVIDIA's financial metrics, the broader distribution trends in market sectors, and current geopolitical events. The episode concludes with a discussion on bond yields, midstream energy sector performance, and expected Federal Reserve rate hikes.

00:00 Introduction and Welcome

00:19 USC Game Recap

00:59 Market Summary and Tech Sell-Off

01:57 Economic Data and Market Highlights

04:27 NVIDIA Analysis

05:56 News Highlights

06:58 Economic and Market Updates

08:43 Energy Sector Insights

09:39 Conclusion and Upcoming Updates

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Market Breakdown Like No Other Aug 30, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Mopc0V

Market Reflections and Fall Excitement: Insights from The Bahnsen Group

In this week's episode of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, Managing Partner at The Bahnsen Group, reflects on 16 years of delivering market insights and the significance of the upcoming September. Bahnsen discusses the end of summer, the start of USC football, and significant market movements throughout August, including the surprising resilience of defensive sectors. He explores the broader economic context, the impact of potential Fed rate cuts, and the looming concerns of national debt. Bahnsen also previews his upcoming election white paper, emphasizing the lack of focus on federal debt in the current political landscape. The episode is rich with financial analysis and historical context, offering viewers a comprehensive understanding of current market conditions and future outlooks.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe

01:30 Market Overview and Recent Trends

02:49 Sector Performance and Market Breadth

05:45 Economic Conditions and Fed Policies

12:21 Election Insights and Economic Implications

15:58 Debt Concerns and Treasury Insights

18:46 Conclusion and Upcoming Events

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - August 29 2024 Aug 29, 2024

Market Update and Economic Insights - August 29

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, an update on the market performance for Thursday, August 29th is provided. Key points discussed include the Dow's gain of 243 points, the NASDAQ's loss of over one percent, and stability in bond yields. The script highlights the decline in initial jobless claims, a revised upward GDP for Q2 driven by consumer spending, and corporate profits at an all-time high. The episode emphasizes the importance of vigilance in portfolio management despite market complacency and previews upcoming inflation data. Closing remarks include well wishes for Labor Day weekend and success in fantasy football drafts.

00:00 Introduction and Market Update 00:52 Economic Indicators and Employment 01:16 GDP and Consumer Spending Insights 01:56 Corporate Profits and Market Valuations 02:23 Risk Management and Vigilance 02:55 Upcoming Data and Weekend Wishes

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - August 28, 2024 Aug 28, 2024

Midweek Market Recap and NVIDIA Earnings Breakdown - August 28, 2023

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the performance of the stock market on a relatively uneventful day, with the Dow dropping 159 points, the S&P 500 down by 0.6%, and the NASDAQ falling by 1.12%. Bonds remained unchanged, while the dollar showed slight strength. The highlight of the day was NVIDIA's anticipated earnings, which surpassed expectations but resulted in a stock drop due to high valuations. Looking ahead, Brian previews key data releases for the next day, including initial jobless claims, trade and inventory data, a revision of Q2 GDP, and pending home sales.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:54 NVIDIA Earnings Report 01:18 Upcoming Economic Data 01:59 Conclusion and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - August 27, 2024 Aug 27, 2024

Market Update and Debt Concerns - August 27

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the current state of the markets on a particularly quiet day. He covers key economic events to watch for, such as the upcoming PCE and nonfarm payrolls reports. The episode details the performance of major indexes, the state of the bond market, and the inversion of the yield curve. Brian also addresses concerns related to U.S. debt, the strong demand for two-year treasury notes, and the interconnected nature of global debt markets. Additionally, he explains the differences between securities-based loans and margin loans, highlighting their respective advantages and risks. Listeners are encouraged to reach out with questions and look forward to more insights in the next episode.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:59 Economic Indicators and Treasury Demand

01:19 Debt Concerns and Market Dynamics

02:43 Securities-Based Loans vs. Margin Loans

04:32 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - August 26, 2024 Aug 26, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/476p1Rs

Market Insights: August Market Dynamics & Key Economic Indicators

In this episode of 'Monday Dividend Cafe,' David reviews the market activity for the final Monday in August, highlighting significant trends observed over the summer. Key points include the Dow closing at an all-time high, a notable disparity in performance between energy and technology sectors, and significant market breadth on Friday. The script also touches on sentiment indicators, the 10-year bond yield, and the weakening U.S. dollar. Additionally, key policy updates are discussed, featuring the FTC's legal challenges and labor market dynamics. Economic indicators, such as durable goods orders and home sales data, are analyzed, alongside Chairman Powell's announcement on rate cuts. David wraps up with an invitation to check out Friday's Dividend Cafe for additional insights.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

02:10 Tech Sector Struggles and Market Sentiment

05:35 Policy and Regulatory Updates

06:29 Economic Indicators and Housing Market

08:31 Federal Reserve and Energy Market Insights

09:27 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It's Not Always in the Numbers Aug 23, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ACbF38

Insights from Jackson Hole and Behavioral Finance: This Week’s Dividend Cafe

In this week’s episode of Dividend Cafe, David discusses the Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell's recent speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, focusing on future rate policies and economic outlook. David highlights the change in focus from price stability to labor markets in Powell’s speech and discusses the likelihood of future rate hikes or cuts based on upcoming economic data. The episode also dives into behavioral finance, emphasizing the importance of avoiding common investment mistakes and the value of behavioral modification for clients. Additionally, David shares statistical insights on GDP growth, corporate profits, and stock market volatility, and compares the performance of gold, inflation, and the S&P 500 over the last few decades. The discussion wraps up with an analysis of inflation data and rental market trends.

00:00 Welcome and Market Overview 01:02 Fed Chair Jay Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole 01:33 Understanding Rate Policy and Market Reactions 05:11 Behavioral Modification in Financial Services 09:14 Statistical Insights from Howard Marks 12:34 Inflation and Investment Strategies 17:05 Wrapping Up and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - August 20, 2024 Aug 20, 2024

Market Insights Amidst a Quiet Day: Economic Data and Upcoming Events

In today's episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel reviews the quiet market day, noting the slight downturn after an 8-day positive streak for both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. He discusses the 10-year yield drop and increased volatility indicated by the VIX. Seitel also highlights upcoming key economic events, including jobless claims and the FOMC minutes, as well as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's anticipated speech at Jackson Hole. The episode provides a general overview of the current economy, touching on unemployment, GDP estimates, corporate earnings growth, and a positive 35-page economic report from Apollo, while advising on the importance of economic data in market movements and portfolio design.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:57 Economic Indicators and Employment

01:19 Corporate Earnings and Economic Activity

02:14 Market Valuation and Investment Strategy

03:08 Upcoming Economic Events

03:19 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - August 19, 2024 Aug 19, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dQg4Og

Monday Market Insights from Dividend Cafe's New NYC Office

In this special edition of Dividend Cafe, recorded for the first time in the new office on Sixth Avenue, New York City, David discusses recent market performance, including a rally in all 11 sectors of the S&P 500, interest rate movements, and the behavior of the dollar. The video also touches on Bitcoin's price stability over the past three years, a critical analysis of recent economic policies and market indices, and insights into the housing market's current state. Additionally, there's a link to an article by Matthew Gregory on recent IRS rulings and Secure Act changes. The episode wraps up with an overview of Fed rate expectations and a preview of Chairman Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

00:00 Welcome to the New Office

01:02 Market Rally Overview

02:00 Dollar Dynamics and Market Impact

03:35 Bitcoin's Volatility

04:22 Retirement Account Updates

05:26 Policy Proposals and Economic Insights

06:23 Housing Market Trends

07:02 Fed Rate Cut Speculations

07:55 Jackson Hole Symposium Preview

08:13 Ask TBG and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Show Me The Confirms Aug 16, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TfUkDJ

Market Volatility and the Principles of Dividend Growth Investing

In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner at The Bahnsen Group, discusses recent market volatility, emphasizing the importance of adhering to sound investment principles amid market fluctuations. Bahnsen reflects on a significant 6% drop and subsequent recovery in the market within a week, underlining the unpredictability of market movements. He advocates for dividend growth investing as a resilient strategy that benefits from market volatility through disciplined reinvestment. Bahnsen also briefly touches on economic and geopolitical factors, as well as policy proposals from presidential candidate Kamala Harris, concluding with an outlook for future discussions. The episode highlights the steadfast approach of Dividend Cafe towards long-term investment strategies over short-term market timing.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe

02:22 Market Movements and Volatility

06:53 The Importance of Dividend Growth Investing

13:16 Policy Proposals and Economic Opinions

16:17 Conclusion and Upcoming Updates

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - August 15 2024 Aug 15, 2024

Market Rally Insights: Cooler Inflation and Strong Consumer Data Fuel Optimism

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on Thursday, August 15th, Brian Szytel reports from Palm Beach, Florida, detailing a notable market rally with the Dow rising over 500 points. Despite a slight bond market sell-off, key economic indicators, including cooler-than-expected PPI and CPI numbers, and robust July retail sales led to this positive movement. The episode also touches on stronger-than-expected initial jobless claims and the impact of a cyber attack on the auto sector. Seitel discusses the potential benefits of adding bonds to portfolios amid declining interest rates and previews upcoming consumer sentiment and building permits data.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:30 Inflation and Growth Numbers

01:11 Employment Data Insights

01:49 Federal Reserve's Influence

02:11 Portfolio Diversification with Bonds

02:53 Upcoming Economic Indicators

03:10 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - August 14, 2024 Aug 14, 2024

Mid-August Market Update and Tax Efficient Portfolios

In this edition of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel offers a market update broadcasted from the new West Palm Beach office. The Dow closed up 242 points, S&P up by a third percent, and Nasdaq flat. The 10-year bond yield is slightly down. Key discussion points include the recent CPI data showing disinflationary trends, market expectations of a September rate cut, and inflation rates over the past three and six months. Brian also addresses strategies for tax-efficient portfolios, emphasizing tax-exempt interest, qualified dividend income, real estate positions, and loss harvesting. The episode wraps up with Brian planning a team dinner and announcing David's return for the next session.

00:00 Introduction and Market Update

00:35 Inflation Data Insights

01:18 Federal Reserve Rate Cut Predictions

01:55 Analyzing Recent Inflation Trends

02:57 Tax Efficient Investment Strategies

04:05 Conclusion and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - August 13, 2024 Aug 13, 2024

Market Rally Fueled by Lower Inflation Numbers - August 13

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from New York City on a positive day in the markets on Tuesday, August 13th. The Dow rose by 408 points, the S&P surpassed 5,400, and the Nasdaq increased by 2.25%. Bond yields also fell, with the 10-year closing at 3.85%. Lower than expected producer price index numbers and positive small business optimism contributed to the market rally. Brian anticipates the CPI numbers to be released tomorrow and encourages listeners to stay tuned for further analysis.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:54 Inflation and Economic Indicators

01:42 Small Business Optimism

02:10 Conclusion and Upcoming Events

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - August 12, 2024 Aug 12, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3M5kPrn

Dividend Cafe: Market Stability Amid Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty

In this Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, David recaps a relatively calm week in the financial markets, highlighting a flat S&P 500, minor tech sector gains, and fluctuations in the Dow and Nasdaq. The discussion touches on the absence of speculative shorts in the yen-dollar trade and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Politically, the focus shifts to the U.S. presidential race and Senate seat contests, emphasizing how market expectations are influenced by current odds. Economic forecasts include upcoming CPI, PPI, and retail sales data, along with an exploration of disinflationary trends. The episode concludes with insights into Treasury bill holdings by Berkshire Hathaway versus the Federal Reserve, emphasizing different financial strategies and objectives.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:39 Market Performance Recap

01:30 Sector Highlights and Bond Market

01:48 Currency and Valuation Insights

03:13 Geopolitical Concerns

04:21 Political Landscape and Market Implications

08:21 Economic Data and Inflation Trends

09:47 Federal Reserve and Housing Market

12:51 Midstream Energy and Treasury Bills

15:03 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Uncrowded Part of the Boat Aug 09, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3WFB835

Ringing the NYSE Bell & Analyzing the Yen Carry Trade

In this week's episode of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer at Bahnsen Group, shares his firsthand experience of ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. David discusses the week's significant market movements, including the impact of the yen carry trade and the resulting volatility across global markets. He explains the complex financial mechanisms behind the yen carry trade and its ramifications on market behaviors. David also stresses the importance of understanding one’s temperament in market fluctuations and not panicking during short-term volatility. He concludes by reflecting on the importance of American financial markets for human flourishing and how high-quality investments can ensure stability amidst market chaos.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe

00:16 Ringing the NYSE Bell

01:20 Market Recap: A Week of Volatility

03:16 Understanding the Yen Carry Trade

06:56 Market Corrections and Investor Temperament

09:02 Leveraged Finance and Forced Selling

12:26 Investment Philosophy: Dividend Growth

14:29 Gratitude and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - August 7, 2024 Aug 07, 2024

Market Volatility and Economic Indicators Update - August 7th

In today's episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the market's downward trend following a previous day's uptick, with the VIX closing at 28. He provides an analysis of key indices, including the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ, and gives insights into the bond market, highlighting the yield curve and credit spreads. Additionally, Seitel touches on the impacts of election cycles on market volatility, shares his views on option income strategies, and discusses recent consumer credit and trade deficit data. The episode emphasizes the importance of understanding market swings and maintaining a balanced investment approach.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:45 Market Volatility and Historical Context

01:41 Bond Market Movements

02:18 Credit Spreads and Market Health

02:50 Election Impact on Volatility

03:39 Option Strategies and Portfolio Management

04:20 Consumer Credit and Trade Deficit

04:39 Conclusion and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - August 6, 2024 Aug 06, 2024

Market Recap and Insights – Tuesday Analysis

David Bahnsen presents the Tuesday Daily Recap, recommending listeners to check out the recent Monday and Friday Dividend Cafe sessions for insights into last week's market volatility. David discusses the market's partial recovery, with the Dow closing up 300 points, despite losing some momentum in the final trading hours. He attributes this volatility to pre-emptive caution towards overnight financial activity and external market influences, such as the yen carry trade concern. David also touches on bond market movements, with yields rising and discusses potential future yield curve inversion. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of their financial role during these turbulent times and looks forward to discussing levered finance in the upcoming Friday Dividend Cafe.

00:00 Introduction and Market Recap

00:21 Today's Market Recovery

00:53 End-of-Day Market Dynamics

01:33 Volatility and After-Hours Trading

02:51 Oil and Bond Market Update

04:07 Upcoming Topics in Dividend Cafe

04:41 Final Thoughts and Engagement

05:07 Conclusion

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - August 5, 2024 Aug 05, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3yu2UHE

In this special Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, David discusses the extraordinary market volatility and the factors driving it. He dives into the unwinding of the yen carry trade, U.S. market valuation concerns, and the economic fundamentals at play. David also highlights the impacts on major tech stocks, the bond market's reaction, and other key financial insights.

00:00 Introduction

00:27 Market Overview and Recent Volatility

01:48 Global Market Influences

03:13 Three Key Issues Impacting the Market

05:21 Economic Fundamentals and Market Reactions

09:02 Asset Allocation Insights

10:47 Market Tidbits and Final Thoughts

12:30 Conclusion and Encouragement

14:52 Disclaimer and Legal Information

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Valuation Situation Aug 02, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Sv9rsw

Understanding Market Volatility and Valuation Sensitivity

In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, David discusses the recent market volatility, particularly significant declines in the Dow, Nasdaq, and tech sectors. The main focus is on the relationship between price and value in investing, arguing that market prices often reflect overly optimistic future growth, which can be misleading. The episode explains the importance of valuation by examining past examples like Cisco in 1999 and emphasizes using a three-pronged test to assess investments. David also highlights the benefits of dividend growth investing to avoid overvaluation risks. The episode concludes with a reminder to watch the upcoming event of the host and their partners ringing the NYSE opening bell.

00:00 Introduction to the Dividend Cafe

00:02 Current Market Volatility

01:57 Understanding Valuation and Price

04:50 Three Rules of Thumb for Valuation

07:06 Market Valuation Metrics

09:29 Sector-Specific Valuations

11:04 The Three-Pronged Test for High Valuations

15:44 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - August 1, 2024 Aug 01, 2024

Market Volatility and Economic Data Insights – August 1st Update

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from the Newport Beach office discusses the substantial market movements on August 1st. Following a significant rally, there was a notable sell-off with the Dow down 494 points, S&P falling by 1.3%, and NASDAQ declining by 2.3%. The 10-year yield dropped below 4%, and the VIX rose to 19, indicating increased market volatility. Seitel highlights recent economic data, including weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing data and high jobless claims, portraying a cooling employment market. He also previews upcoming non-farm payrolls and emphasized the importance of understanding daily market fluctuations in the context of broader economic trends.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:24 Market Reversal and Bond Yields

01:13 Economic Data and Market Reaction

02:01 Employment Data and Fed's Mandate

02:49 Conclusion and Upcoming Events

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - July 31, 2024 Jul 31, 2024

FOMC Meeting Updates and Market Rally on July 31st

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from Newport Beach discusses the positive market response on July 31st, highlighting gains across various sectors following the FOMC meeting. Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.5%, their balanced view on the risks to the economy, including a weakening employment market and declining inflation, boosted market confidence. Additionally, the episode covers the impact of the lower-than-expected ADP private payroll numbers and employer cost index on the market rally. The discussion also touches on putting money to work in the current market, upcoming initial jobless claims, and manufacturing data, as well as the anticipated employment report.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:20 FOMC Meeting Insights

01:14 Market Reactions and Rally

01:36 Economic Data and Fed Narrative

01:59 Investment Strategy and Upcoming Data

02:30 Conclusion and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - July 30, 2024 Jul 30, 2024

Market Rotation and Economic Updates - July 30, 2019

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel analyzes the mixed market performance on July 30, 2019, highlighting the Dow's rise by 203 points, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ saw declines. Seitel discusses market rotation, noting the narrowing performance gap between different market segments and comparing the current situation to the year 2000. He also provides updates on economic indicators, such as consumer confidence and job openings, and anticipates the outcomes of upcoming ADP payroll numbers and the FOMC meeting, where expectations for a September rate cut are high.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:21 Market Rotation and Performance Analysis

01:59 Economic Indicators and Consumer Confidence

02:49 Upcoming Economic Events and Expectations

03:21 Conclusion and Sign-Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - July 29, 2024 Jul 29, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Sux849

Monday Dividend Cafe: Market Recap, Election Insights, and Economic Data Analysis

In this episode of the Monday Dividend Cafe, David provides a comprehensive overview of recent market activities, including notable observations about the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq movements. He elaborates on the performance of various sectors like banks, healthcare, and homebuilders, and reviews bond market trends. The host also delves into the political landscape, discussing President Biden's removal from the race, Vice President Harris's electoral strategy, and former President Trump's campaign prospects. Additionally, he touches upon key economic indicators, such as the PCE inflation data, restaurant reservations, travel statistics, and housing market trends.David concludes with insights into the upcoming Federal Reserve and international central bank meetings.

00:00 Introduction and Market Recap

00:54 July Market Movements and Sector Performance

03:37 Global Political Updates: Venezuela

04:25 US Election Insights and Predictions

11:37 Economic Data Highlights

13:25 Housing Market Trends

15:29 Upcoming Fed and Global Central Bank Decisions

16:01 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Logic, Emotion, and the Non-Partisan Market Jul 26, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3SqEZ2G

Balancing Logic and Emotion in Investment Decisions

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded from Newport Beach, the discussion revolves around the impact of human psychology on investment decisions. David delves into the importance of balancing logic (logos) and emotion (pathos) in managing a diverse investment portfolio, touching on systematic and non-systematic risks. The conversation also covers recent market dynamics and geopolitical events, emphasizing that current market behaviors are more about valuation than geopolitical tensions. The episode concludes with speculative insights on the economic implications of the Ukraine conflict and potential investment opportunities in rebuilding efforts. Listeners are encouraged to check out accompanying charts and additional insights available in the written Dividend Cafe.

00:00 Introduction to This Week's Dividend Cafe

00:28 Balancing Logic and Emotion in Investing

03:04 Understanding Systematic and Non-Systematic Risk

05:50 The Challenges of Portfolio Diversification

09:01 Current Market Conditions and Geopolitical Impact

13:42 Potential Economic Implications of the Ukraine Conflict

17:05 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - July 25, 2024 Jul 25, 2024

Market Volatility and Economic Indicators: Insights from Dividend Cafe – July 25

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the volatile market activity on July 25th, where the Dow saw significant fluctuations before closing up 81 points, while NASDAQ and S&P ended the day lower. Key economic updates include a much stronger than expected preliminary GDP at 2.8%, stable jobless claims, and mixed durable goods orders. The session highlights a continued rotation from high-valuation sectors to value sectors like energy and financials. Listeners are advised to anticipate upcoming PCE data and reminded of the need for personalized investment advice.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe

00:19 Market Volatility Recap

01:23 Economic Data Highlights

02:21 Durable Goods Orders Analysis

03:05 Closing Thoughts and Upcoming Data

03:31 Disclaimer and Legal Information

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - July 24, 2024 Jul 24, 2024

Market Analysis and Sector Performance on July 24th

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel analyzes the market performance for July 24th from West Palm Beach, Florida. The Dow closed 504 points lower, the S&P fell by 2.31%, and the NASDAQ dropped by 3.64%. Significant declines in Google and Tesla stocks driven by earnings misses led to the NASDAQ's poor performance. Despite the downturn, sectors such as energy, staples, utilities, and healthcare saw positive results. Interest rates slightly increased, with the 10-year yield up by three basis points. Brian discusses the yield curve changes and the economic indicators, including slight misses in new home sales and positive PMI report. Looking ahead, the episode mentions upcoming PCE data and the Fed meeting next week, followed by expectations for Q2 GDP revisions and durable goods orders. The VIX index spiked by 22% indicating heightened market volatility.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:54 Sector Performance and Interest Rates

01:56 Economic Data Highlights

02:39 Upcoming Economic Events

03:15 Closing Remarks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - July 23, 2024 Jul 23, 2024

Market Updates and Economic Insights from Dividend Cafe - July 23rd

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel checks in from the newly opened West Palm Beach, Florida office, starting with a thank you to Jolene and Mina for their hard work. Brian reviews the day's flat market activities with minor declines in the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, and 10-year treasury yields. He discusses important upcoming economic events such as PCE data and a Fed meeting, and highlights notable earnings season trends, particularly the strong performance in the financial sector. Additionally, Brian comments on political factors, real estate market conditions, including a low in existing home sales, and mixed manufacturing data from the Richmond Fed. He concludes with a preview of upcoming economic reports and invites viewers to reach out with questions. Tune in tomorrow for more insights from Florida.

00:00 Welcome to the New Office

00:33 Market Overview: A Flat Day

01:01 Earnings Season Insights

01:28 Financial Sector Performance

02:30 Economic Indicators and Real Estate

03:21 Upcoming Economic Data

03:33 Closing Remarks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - July 22, 2024 Jul 22, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3y4VVVt

Impact of Biden's Withdrawal on Market Volatility and Political Projections

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David explores the significant impact of President Joe Biden's unexpected withdrawal from the 2024 re-election campaign on the market and political landscape. The discussion examines historical parallels, potential outcomes of a Trump vs. Kamala Harris presidential race, and implications for Senate and House races. The episode also delves into the potential market volatility anticipated during the uncertain political period leading up to the election, and its potential effects on fiscal, trade, and regulatory policies impacting investors.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe

00:12 Special Monday Edition: Political and Economic Insights

01:55 Historical Context: Biden's Withdrawal and Market Implications

05:08 Senate Races and Political Dynamics

08:15 Market Volatility and Election Predictions

10:45 In-Depth Political Analysis and Predictions

22:13 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Six Reasons for Inflation, Debunked Jul 19, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Ws09Qk

Analyzing Inflation: The Complex Factors Beyond Headlines

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded from East Hampton, David discusses the recent political and economic turmoil, including significant events like the assassination attempt and the Republican convention. Shifting focus to the topic of inflation, the host diverges from common narratives and delves into a broader, long-term macroeconomic perspective. By examining various factors such as deglobalization, demographics, populist politics, war, environmentalism, and technology, the episode challenges conventional views on what drives inflation. Utilizing an outline by Keynesian economist Anatoly Koletsky, the host critiques these factors and refutes their presumed inflationary impacts, emphasizing the nuanced and complex nature of inflation. The episode also touches on the bond market's outlook and its implications for nominal GDP growth and inflation predictions.

00:00 Introduction and Upcoming Events

00:27 Current Events and Market Overview

01:45 Deep Dive into Inflation

08:41 Factors Influencing Inflation

11:56 Debunking Inflationary Myths

19:53 The Role of Technology and Politics

22:03 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - July 18, 2024 Jul 18, 2024

Market Volatility Analysis and Economic Updates - July 18

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the continued market volatility as the Dow drops 533 points, closing almost at its daily low. The S&P and NASDAQ also decline by about 0.7 to 0.8 percent, while the 10-year yield increases by four basis points to 420. Despite the market's turbulence, political developments such as increased tariffs on China and their impact on technology, especially semiconductors, are highlighted. Brian reflects on the significant shifts in trade dynamics over the past decade, noting a reduced reliance between the U.S. and China. Additionally, the episode covers initial jobless claims and a significant positive surprise in the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. With a quiet economic calendar ahead, the episode concludes with a preview of the upcoming longer-form Dividend Cafe newsletter.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:46 Impact of Tariffs on China and Global Trade

01:47 Economic Indicators and Job Market Update

02:21 Upcoming Events and Conclusion

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - July 17, 2024 Jul 17, 2024

Today's Dividend Cafe discusses the mixed outcomes in the market, focusing on the performance of the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ. Key topics include technological sell-offs due to tariff talks, outperformance of value stocks, and updates on economic indicators such as housing starts, building permits, and industrial production. Additionally, Brian provides insights into what to expect from tomorrow's economic releases and Fed speakers.

00:00 Introduction

00:06 Market Performance

00:32 Technology Sector

00:58 Value Stocks and Small Caps

01:46 Housing and Industrial Production Updates

02:59 Upcoming Economic Indicators

03:14 Conclusion

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - July 16, 2024 Jul 16, 2024

Market Rally and Economic Updates: July 16 Edition

On this episode of Dividend Cafe, hosted by Brian Szytel, markets showed a positive trend across stocks and bonds, with notable index disparities. The discussion highlights a rally in small-cap stocks and changes in interest rate expectations. Key economic updates include retail sales beating expectations despite a cyber attack in the auto industry, and flat import prices for June. The episode also addresses the role of small-cap stocks in dividend and growth portfolios. Upcoming economic indicators such as housing starts, building permits, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book are also mentioned.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:13 Stock and Bond Market Rally 00:45 Sector Performance and Market Rotation 01:25 Economic Indicators and Retail Sales 02:12 Small Caps and Portfolio Strategy 02:56 Upcoming Economic Events 03:11 Conclusion and Recap

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - July 15, 2024 Jul 15, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cWEcOw

Surreal Weekend, Market Insights, and Political Developments

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David reflects on a surreal weekend that included a failed assassination attempt and delves into the current political climate as the Republican convention kicks off. The announcement of JD Vance as former President Trump's running mate and President Biden's internal party challenges are discussed. The episode explores the implications of the upcoming presidential election on U.S.-China relations and the regulatory environment. Market updates cover the Dow hitting an all-time high, bond market trends, and sector performance. Key developments also include a federal judge dismissing a classified documents case against Trump. Other topics include foreclosures, potential Fed rate cuts, and the impact of technology-driven employment growth. The host concludes with a deep dive into inflation theories and monetary policy, highlighting the importance of a rules-based approach.

00:00 Introduction and Weekend Recap 00:49 Political Landscape and Market Implications 04:46 Market Performance and Analysis 07:53 Economic Indicators and Reports 10:59 Inflation and Monetary Policy Discussion 14:39 Closing Remarks and Upcoming Events

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Recipe for Innovation Jul 12, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3S4efVq

Market Dynamics and Economic Growth: Analyzing Cap-Weighted vs. Even-Weighted Indices

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David delves into recent market phenomena, specifically comparing cap-weighted and even-weighted S&P 500 indices. The discussion highlights an unprecedented 11% year-to-date difference between the two, exploring implications for market concentration and economic growth. The episode covers daily market fluctuations, Fed rate cut expectations, and offers insights into global economic indicators, contrasting Germany and Switzerland's market values to Apple. Key factors for productivity and economic growth such as education, rule of law, military capacity, entrepreneurial culture, ecosystems, and capital formation are emphasized. The host concludes by stressing the importance of understanding market and economic dynamics for better investment perspectives.

00:00 Introduction to This Week's Market Insights

01:50 Understanding Market Top Heaviness

03:34 Analyzing the S&P 500 Performance

07:04 Impact of Fed Rate Cuts on the Market

09:20 Global Market Comparisons: Germany and Switzerland

11:51 The Importance of Economic Growth

13:46 Key Factors for Productivity Growth

16:29 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - July 11, 2024 Jul 11, 2024

Dividend Cafe: Market Commentary and Economic Updates - July 11th

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an insightful overview of the market activities on Thursday, July 11th. Key highlights include a mixed market performance with the Dow closing up by 32 points, while technology-heavy indices like the S&P and NASDAQ experienced declines. The CPI data released showed cooler than expected inflation, indicating positive trends for the economy and aligned with the Federal Reserve's goals. Bond yields have also rallied, reflecting these changes. Additionally, initial jobless claims were slightly better than anticipated. Szytel explains the day's performance, attributing the technology sell-off to a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' reaction. He also provides a brief outlook for the upcoming PPI index release. The episode concludes with a reminder about the weekly Dividend Cafe longer format soon to be available.

00:16 Market Overview: Mixed Day in the Markets

00:42 Inflation and CPI Data Analysis

01:43 Interest Rates and Bond Market Movements

02:36 Technology Sector Sell-Off

02:51 Upcoming Economic Reports and Conclusion

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - July 10, 2024 Jul 10, 2024

Market Updates & Economic Insights — July 10, 2023

In the latest episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the positive performance in the stock markets, with the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P all up by over 1%. The episode covers the seventh consecutive session of gains for the S&P and NASDAQ, and touches on bond market updates including a positive 10-year auction. Key economic events include Jerome Powell's testimony on inflation, wholesale inventories data, and upcoming CPI figures. The episode also delves into Japan's unique monetary policy approach and its economic implications. Looking ahead, the focus will be on initial jobless claims and the new CPI data release.

00:00 Market Update: July 10th

00:32 Positive Trends in Stocks and Bonds

00:45 Federal Reserve Insights and Economic Indicators

01:42 Anticipation for CPI Data

02:04 Japan's Unique Monetary Experiment

03:56 Looking Ahead: Jobless Claims and CPI

04:01 Closing Remarks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - July 9, 2024 Jul 09, 2024

Dividend Cafe: Market Commentary and Economic Updates, July 9th

In this week's Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market commentary from New York. The Dow closed down 52 points, while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 remained slightly positive. A significant topic discussed was Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell's comments to the Senate finance committee about the potential economic risks if interest rates are not cut soon. The likelihood of a September rate cut has increased to 70%. Brian highlights concerns about the economic data, slowing growth, and its impact on earnings per share for the S&P 500. Upcoming economic indicators and more Fed comments are anticipated this week. The Bonson Group emphasizes the importance of due diligence and consulting with professional advisors.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:23 Market Overview and Economic Data 00:41 Federal Reserve Insights 01:30 Economic Predictions and Market Expectations 02:29 Upcoming Economic Events 02:51 Closing Remarks 03:01 Disclaimer and Legal Information

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Mid-Year Check-In Jul 03, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3XNIiUU

Mid-Year Market Report:

In this special Dividend Cafe episode, released ahead of the 4th of July weekend, David delivers a comprehensive mid-year market update. Key points include strong performance in major indices such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, uneven sector returns led by technology, and resilience in international markets. The episode also discusses the minimal impact of Fed policies on market momentum, the complexities of de-globalization and its economic impact, and the significant themes for 2024. Volatility has been low despite predictions, and the episode concludes with a reflection on the diverse economic indicators, housing market anomalies, and anticipation of future market dynamics.

00:00 Welcome and Mid-Year Check-In 01:10 Market Performance Overview 02:26 Sector and International Market Analysis 03:40 Bond and Commodity Market Insights 05:20 Volatility and Market Breadth 07:38 Economic Indicators and Mixed Signals 10:35 Credit Market and Forecast Review 11:44 Key Themes and Predictions for 2024 20:19 Final Thoughts and 4th of July Message

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - July 2, 2024 Jul 02, 2024

Market Update and Economic Insights Ahead of July 4th Holiday

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market update for Tuesday, July 2nd. With a quiet day in the markets leading up to the 4th of July holiday, key highlights include a slight yield drop on tens, robust performance in the consumer discretionary sector, and job openings exceeding expectations, indicating labor market resilience. Fed Chair Powell's remarks on disinflation progress at the Sentra conference in Portugal were also discussed. Additionally, the episode delves into the dynamics between private credit and investment-grade credit, highlighting expansion trends and credit risk considerations. Brian also previews the upcoming economic data releases for the next day, such as ADP private payrolls, jobless claims, and factory orders, and announces the release of a detailed Dividend Cafe newsletter.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:27 Economic Indicators and Labor Market 01:02 Federal Reserve and Fixed Income Insights 01:39 Investment Grade Credit and Private Credit 02:56 Upcoming Economic Events and Conclusion

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - July 1, 2024 Jul 01, 2024

Dividend Cafe: Market Updates, Supreme Court Rulings, and Mid-Year Market Overview

In this special Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, listeners are treated to a packed episode covering a range of topics. David provides market performance updates, highlighting the fluctuations and gains in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. Significant attention is given to recent public policy events, notably Supreme Court rulings affecting President Trump's legal situation and regulatory powers of government agencies. David also previews a forthcoming special mid-year market review edition to be released on Wednesday, July 3rd, instead of the usual Friday. Additional coverage includes updates on housing market trends, insights into potential policy impacts on various sectors, and reflections on pessimism in economic discourse. Tune in for comprehensive updates and analyses to stay informed on market movements and policy implications.

00:00 Introduction and Weekly Overview 01:32 Market Recap: Monday's Movements 04:38 Supreme Court Rulings and Political Updates 05:52 European Politics and Market Implications 07:14 Debate Aftermath and Election Predictions 10:35 Supreme Court's Chevron Ruling and Regulatory Impact 12:06 IRS Ruling on Pass-Through Entities 13:11 Housing Market Trends and Fed Expectations 16:06 Energy Sector Performance and Market Trends 17:09 Laws of Pessimism and Human Nature 18:12 Conclusion and Upcoming Content

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Career Risk vs. Fiduciary Duty Jun 28, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3zvzPeU

Navigating Market Realities and Counter-Cultural Investing

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded in Dallas, Texas, David Bahnsen discusses his recent travels to various cities before heading back to New York City. The main focus is on the pitfalls within the money management industry, highlighting issues like index hugging and career-centric over fiduciary-centric decision-making. The script delves into the moral and practical shortcomings of passive and active management practices, especially in the face of market overvaluations and sector disparities. Additionally, it touches on energy sector trends, the implications of U.S. oil production, and the impact of various 'shiny object' investment trends like Nvidia's growth and the struggles of sectors such as cannabis and clean energy. The episode promises a mid-year market and economic check-in next week.

00:00 Introduction and Travel Update 01:02 Mid-Year Market Check-In Preview 01:30 The Reality of Money Management 06:13 Countercultural Investment Philosophy 10:07 Energy Sector Insights 13:26 Market Tidbits and Final Thoughts 15:24 Conclusion and Upcoming Content

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - June 27, 2024 Jun 27, 2024

Market Recap: Equities, Bonds, and Economic Indicators

In this episode, David, managing partner at the Bahnsen Group, provides a recap of the latest market activities. Broadcasting from Dallas, Texas, he shares insights on slight movements in the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ indices, with real estate being the top performing sector. He also discusses minor changes in bond yields and notes that oil prices have remained steady. On the economic front, durable goods orders and housing starts showed underwhelming results. Upcoming is the PCE inflation report, which is significant as it is closely watched by the Fed.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:29 Equity and Bond Market Performance 01:07 Oil Prices and Economic News 01:45 Housing Market Update 02:19 Upcoming Inflation Report

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - June 26, 2024 Jun 26, 2024

Mid-Year Market Update and Economic Insights: Dividend Cafe for June 26th

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on Wednesday, June 26th, Brian provides a mid-year update on the financial markets, highlighting the positive yet quiet trading day and the overall decent performance of the S&P 500 for the year's first half. Key points include a detailed analysis of new home sales, which showed significant declines, and a discussion on sector rotation with energy, industrials, and healthcare showing improved prospects. Additionally, Brian addresses questions on electric vehicle exposure, explaining why certain names like Tesla are not currently compelling for TBG. The episode concludes with an update on the broader exposures in lithium production through large integrated oil companies.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:49 Economic Indicators and Housing Market 01:31 Sector Rotation and Market Support 02:05 Electric Vehicle Market Analysis 03:12 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - June 25, 2024 Jun 25, 2024

Mixed Market Movements and Resilient Housing Prices in Focus

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, market commentary includes a mixed performance across the indices with the Dow down nearly 300 points while the S&P and Nasdaq posted gains. Economic updates reveal all-time high home prices per the Case Shiller Home Price Index and decreased sales of previously owned homes. The episode delves into consumer sentiment, emerging markets strategy, and the implications of refinanced consumer and corporate debt amid current interest rates. Additionally, considerations on geopolitical risk in China and the evolution of the emerging markets landscape are discussed.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:19 Market Overview: A Mixed Day 00:52 Economic News and Housing Market 01:50 Emerging Markets and Consumer Focus 03:19 Debt and Interest Rates Discussion 04:18 Conclusion and Upcoming Events 04:29 Disclaimer and Legal Information

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - June 24, 2024 Jun 24, 2024

Monday Market Rundown

This episode of the Monday Dividend Cafe, recorded in Grand Rapids, Michigan, covers market updates including top performing sectors and notable changes in technology and cryptocurrencies. David discusses the concept of 'TBG day' where multiple key sectors align positively. The episode also provides an overview of recent AI investment trends, citing a survey showing a slowdown in spending due to various concerns. Additionally, David shares political insights that may affect markets, updates on used car prices, existing home sales data, and predictions regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts. The episode concludes with positive notes on the oil sector and encouragements to access more content on the Dividend Cafe website.

00:00 Welcome to Monday Dividend Cafe 00:45 Market Rundown and TBG Day 03:45 AI Investment Insights 07:53 Political Landscape and Market Implications 11:27 Economic Indicators and Predictions 13:23 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Artificial Intelligence and The Bahnsen Group Jun 21, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3KSRGPp

Navigating AI Investments: Lessons from the Dividend Cafe

In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, recorded live from Atlanta, Georgia, David discusses the topic of artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on investments. He explains why AI hasn't been a major focus of Dividend Cafe, despite its prominence in media and financial conversations. The discussion delves into the distinctions between AI's backbone companies and those utilizing AI, drawing historical parallels to the internet boom of the 1990s. The episode outlines ten principles to understand and navigate AI investments, advocating for a dividend growth framework. The host addresses market concentration risks, historical lessons, and the sustainable approach for investing in AI-related companies. Listeners are encouraged to view informative charts at DividendCafe.com and reflect on a quote from Charles Mackey about collective and individual thinking.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:02 Travel and Speaking Engagements 00:43 AI in Financial Media 03:44 Investment Implications of AI 05:18 10 Key Takeaways on AI 07:39 Historical Context of AI Investments 13:21 Predictions and Pitfalls of AI 17:04 Principles of AI Investing 19:16 AI's Broader Impact on Society 20:53 AI and Dividend Growth Investing 24:59 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - June 20, 2024 Jun 20, 2024

Market Update: Mixed Indices and Economic Indicators

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on Thursday, June 20th, we discuss the mixed performance in the stock market where the Dow closed up nearly 300 points, while the S&P and NASDAQ saw slight declines. Key sector movements included a 2% rise in energy and a 1.4% drop in information technology. Jobless claims were slightly higher than expected at 238,000, and the Philly Fed index showed weaker-than-expected manufacturing numbers. Housing starts fell by 5.5% for the month, alongside disappointing building permit figures, suggesting potential impacts from interest rates and seasonal factors. Upcoming economic data include PMI and existing home sales. The episode wraps up with well wishes and an invitation for audience questions.

00:00 Welcome and Market Overview 00:27 Sector Movements and Jobless Claims 01:04 Economic Indicators and Housing Data 01:39 Upcoming Data and Conclusion

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - June 18, 2024 Jun 18, 2024

Today's Post -

Daily Market Recap and Economic Insights - June 18, 2023

In today's episode of Dividend Cafe, David provides a daily market recap, highlighting a 57-point increase in the Dow (0.15%), a 0.25% rise in the S&P, and a stable Nasdaq. The bond market rally continued with the 10-year yield at 4.21%. Financials led the sectors, while communication services performed the worst. Economic updates include slight retail sales growth and an unexpected rise in industrial production. David notes significant market optimism and mentions Juneteenth's market closure.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:12 Daily Market Recap 00:17 Market Performance Highlights 00:46 Sector Performance Overview 01:33 Economic Data Insights 01:56 Fund Manager Survey Insights 02:15 Closing Remarks and Announcements

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - June 17, 2024 Jun 17, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3KSk5VG

Dividend Insights: Market Trends, Fed Influence, and Economic Policies

In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, David provides a comprehensive commentary on the current market dynamics, including summaries on housing markets, federal policies, corporate taxes, and bond yields. Key topics include the performance of the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq, the impact of public policies on elections, and an insightful analogy comparing market trends to Roger Federer's tennis career. Additional focus is given to European political stability, U.S. corporate tax rates, and commercial real estate metrics. The session concludes with observations on national vacancy rates, Fed rate predictions, and the law of conservation of outrage in human behavior.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:41 Market Summary and Key Highlights 01:42 Stock and Bond Market Correlation 03:22 Market Breadth and Top Heaviness 08:10 Corporate Tax Rates and Economic Impact 11:02 Housing Market Insights 12:54 Commercial Real Estate and Office Vacancies 14:16 Federal Reserve and Oil Market Update 15:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Minsky Moment or a Tech Pop Jun 14, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/45pEwTs

Exploring Market Volatility and the Concept of a Minsky Moment

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David discusses the current volatility and directionlessness in the market, delving into the concept of a 'Minsky moment,' where periods of stability can give rise to instability. They differentiate between short-term market concerns rooted in equity valuations and longer-term economic issues tied to government debt. The episode explores the influence of large cap tech stocks within the S&P 500 and the cyclical nature of market dynamics. David also touches on the importance of maintaining a quality, counter-cultural investment portfolio to mitigate risks associated with economic instability and market euphoria.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:25 Understanding the Minsky Moment 03:10 Historical Context and Personal Insights 07:27 Application to Current Market Conditions 09:20 Government Debt and Long-Term Economic Impact 11:34 Cap-Weighted vs. Equal-Weighted Indexes 15:21 Final Thoughts and Father's Day Wishes

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - June 13, 2024 Jun 13, 2024

Market Update and Economic Indicators: A Snapshot

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - June 12, 2024 Jun 12, 2024

This episode delves into the significance and influence of the word 'because'. The discussion explores its role in communication, persuasion, and decision-making processes, highlighting how the simple word can have a powerful effect in various contexts.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - June 11, 2024 Jun 11, 2024

Dividend Cafe: June 11 Market Commentary and Economic Update

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, we cover the market's performance on June 11th, noting that despite a slight overall decline, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted gains, while Treasury yields fell due to a strong auction of two-year notes.

We also discuss the uptick in the Small Business Optimism Index, reflecting ongoing economic concerns such as interest rates and potential policy changes. Key upcoming events include a core CPI number and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Market Overview and Performance 00:44 Treasury Auction and Interest Rates 01:09 Small Business Optimism Index 02:04 Upcoming Economic Data

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - June 10, 2024 Jun 10, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4esr4m6

We cover a wide range of market and economic updates. From today's market action, bond market volatility, sector performance, and the top heaviness of the S&P 500, to significant geopolitical events and public policy issues. Also discussed are the implications of the Texas Stock Exchange movement, the recent jobs report, and trends in air travel. The episode concludes with insights into the private versus public company landscape and listener questions. 00:00 Market Overview 01:32 Bond Market Insights 02:26 Sector Performance 03:02 Top Heaviness in the S&P 500 05:35 Geopolitical Events 06:42 Texas Stock Exchange Movement 08:13 Jobs Report 09:14 Air Travel Trends 10:07 Commercial Real Estate Loans 11:21 Federal Reserve's Policies 13:00 Upstream Energy Stock Performance 13:34 Laws of Pessimism 15:04 Decline in Publicly Listed Companies

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

One Company is THIS Big? Jun 07, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Xd1Npy

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David dives into the top-heavy nature of the current market, focusing on valuations, risk exposures, and the weightings of major stocks. The episode further explores NVIDIA's staggering impact on the market, providing data points and historical context. It also discusses the broader economic scenarios, including insights about China, market volatility, and sector performances.

00:00 Introduction 00:46 Market Valuations and Risks 04:27 NVIDIA's Market Impact 09:29 China's Economic Scenario 11:14 Market Volatility and Predictions 12:46 Sector Yield Insights 13:21 Conclusion and Quote of the Week

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - June 6, 2024 Jun 06, 2024

Market Summary and Economic Insights

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, the day saw minor movements in the trading markets with the Dow closing up 78 points, while the S&P and Nasdaq remained nearly unchanged. The 10-year yield also remained stable. Significant economic updates included the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected but still reflect healthy employment numbers. Productivity and trade deficit data showed slight improvements. Additionally, TSA travel levels for 2024 indicated strong economic activity. The discussion also touched on the preference for goal-oriented benchmarks over traditional market benchmarks. Listeners were reminded about the upcoming non-farm payroll data and the long-form Dividend Cafe newsletter set to release the following day.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:23 European Central Bank and Interest Rates 01:03 US Economic Indicators 01:41 Travel Trends and Economic Activity 02:30 Benchmarking Dividend Portfolios 03:17 Upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls Report 03:21 Conclusion and Sign-Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - June 5, 2024 Jun 05, 2024

Exploring the Dynamics of the Dow

This episode delves into the intricacies of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly referred to as the Dow. The show offers insight into its components, historical significance, how it is calculated, and its role as an economic indicator. Listeners will learn about the major influences on the Dow's movements, its impact on market trends, and why it is closely watched by investors and analysts.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - June 4, 2024 Jun 04, 2024

Daily Market Recap and Economic Insights - Dividend Cafe

In today's daily recap on Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen discusses the market performance with the Dow closing up 140 points, modest gains in the S&P and NASDAQ, and a continued bond market rally reflected in the 10-year yield drop to 4.33%. Real estate and consumer staples sectors led the day with about 1% gains, while materials and energy sectors saw declines. Oil prices decreased by $1.30 a barrel. The episode also touches on the JOLTS data indicating a drop in job openings and speculates that the labor market data will give the Fed a potential reason to loosen policy by the year's end. David also encourages viewers to check out ongoing questions on DividendCafe.com and concludes with a positive outlook for most asset classes in May.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:12 Daily Market Recap 00:41 Bond Market Rally 01:19 Sector Performance Overview 01:39 Oil Prices and Economic Data 01:54 Labor Market Insights 02:45 Fed's Potential Moves 02:59 Closing Thoughts and Resources 03:54 Legal and Investment Disclaimers

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - June 3, 2024 Jun 03, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3X5cdHS

Market Movements and Consumer Behavior Insights - The Monday Dividend Cafe

In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, David provides a detailed commentary on recent market activities, including significant volatility with a nearly 500-point swing in the Dow. Major sectors are discussed, with technology and healthcare leading gains while energy experiences a sharp decline. Insights into OPEC Plus decisions on production cuts and the impact on oil prices are covered. The narrative also dives into consumer spending habits, the influence of media on market perceptions, and considerations on housing affordability linked to mortgage rates. The episode concludes with highlights on economic indicators, including the performance of utilities, cell phone usage as a proxy for economic activity, and anticipated shifts in Federal Reserve policy on interest rates.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:15 Market Recap: A Volatile Day 00:54 Sector Performance Highlights 01:20 Energy Sector and OPEC+ Update 08:43 Consumer Behavior Insights 11:55 Economic Indicators and Analysis 18:14 Against Doomsdayism: The Speed of Bad News 19:42 Conclusion and Upcoming Reports

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Markets and My Life: A 50-Year Retrospective May 31, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3R7M9Io

Reflecting on 50 Years of Market and Personal Milestones

In this special edition of the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary, David reflects on 50 years of market and economic history coinciding with his 50th birthday. This episode dives into significant economic events, market trends, and personal anecdotes, from the S&P 500’s journey from 89 points at David's birth to its massive growth over the decades. David shares insights from his personal and professional life, highlighting lessons learned and projecting forward for the next 50 years. Tune in for historical retrospection and wisdom on long-term investing and human ingenuity.

00:00 Introduction to This Week's Dividend Cafe 01:02 Reflecting on 50 Years of Investing 01:29 Personal Milestones and Market Parallels 06:15 Economic Challenges and Lessons from the 1970s 08:18 The Booming 1980s and Financial Innovations 12:05 The Digital Revolution and Market Zeal of the 1990s 14:39 Navigating the 2000s: Personal and Professional Growth 16:06 The Financial Crisis and Its Lasting Impact 17:35 Modern Market Dynamics and Future Outlook 21:24 The Power of Dividends and Long-Term Investing 24:37 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - May 30, 2024 May 30, 2024

Market Recap and Economic Indicators for May 8th, 2023

In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, we delve into the recent market events with a focus on the downward trend experienced across major indices such as the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P. The Dow took a significant hit, largely due to an earnings disappointment from a major software company. The discussion includes updated GDP figures for Q1, showing a decline to 1.3%, and initial jobless claims which remain strong at 219,000. We also address the notable drop in pending home sales, attributed to continuing high mortgage rates. Additionally, there's a segment about the presence of international stock positions in the dividend portfolio and the relevance of foreign tax withholding. As always, the episode concludes with an invitation for listeners to reach out with their questions.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:18 Market Recap: A Down Day 01:00 Economic Indicators Update 01:43 Housing Market Insights 02:24 International Stock Positions 03:12 Conclusion and Sign-Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - May 29, 2024 May 29, 2024

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and economic understanding. On May 29th, the markets saw a significant downturn, with a decrease of over 400 points, attributed to a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve and the release of the Fed's Beige Book indicating modest economic expansion. The episode also discusses Q1 earnings, with an 8% beat and a notable future outlook, emphasizing the importance of selective portfolio management. For 2024, an 11% earnings increase is expected. Listen for detailed market insights and forecasts.

00:19 Market Overview: May 29th 00:39 Federal Reserve and Economic Insights 01:42 Earnings and Company Performance 02:26 Future Earnings Projections 02:59 Valuation and Portfolio Strategy 03:11 Closing Remarks and Contact Information 03:23 Disclaimer and Legal Information

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - May 28, 2024 May 28, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3KhwHpc

A special Tuesday edition owing to the Memorial Day holiday. The podcast covers a range of topics starting with a market recap, touching on the industrial and healthcare sectors, and explaining the unusual trading patterns in the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Financial intricacies such as market breadth and credit spreads are discussed, along with the curious valuation metrics of various sectors. The housing market trends, including mortgage rates and foreclosure statistics, are highlighted. Speculations on future Fed rate cuts are discussed, emphasizing the likelihood of cuts being delayed until after the presidential election. David also explains the firm's approach to utilizing outside money managers for specific asset classes. The episode wraps up with a preview of upcoming segments and content.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Diversify or Diworsify? May 24, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UYlHC2

David discusses recent market volatility, highlighting large fluctuations in the Dow over the past few months. He emphasizes the importance of avoiding high-risk trades and the hazards of following market trends blindly. The speaker delves into various investor sentiment indicators, such as credit spreads and the VIX index, suggesting a current market frothiness. The main focus is on the value of diversification, both across asset classes and within them, to mitigate risk. He contrasts widespread index investing with a more concentrated approach that prioritizes dividend growth stocks. The host underscores the importance of conviction over quantity in constructing a portfolio, advocating for a strategy rooted in fundamental investment logic rather than crowd-following.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - May 23, 2024 May 23, 2024

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, the discussion revolves around a significant downturn in the market with the Dow closing over 600 points lower. However, some sectors, especially those related to AI technology, showed positive performance due to favorable earnings results. The episode delves into recent economic indicators, highlighting PMI data showing the economy's accelerated growth in May, with manufacturing and services sectors posting gains. Despite positive economic indicators, concerns remain regarding potential Federal Reserve actions on interest rates. The episode also covers lower-than-expected initial jobless claims and a decline in new home sales, attributed to higher interest rates. A Q&A session discussed dealing with large deficits and government debt, advocating for supply-side economic policies to stimulate growth without excessively raising taxes or increasing regulation. The Bonson Group provided these insights, emphasizing that their advice does not constitute a solicitation for securities and should not replace professional tax or legal consultation.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe! 00:19 Market Overview: A Down Day in the Markets 00:53 Economic Indicators: PMI Data and Jobless Claims 01:57 Housing Market Insights: New Home Sales Data 02:42 Fiscal Policy Discussion: Deficits, Taxes, and Economic Growth 03:49 Closing Remarks and Contact Information 03:59 Legal and Advisory Disclosures

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - May 22, 2024 May 22, 2024

This episode of Dividend Cafe offers a commentary on the recent market downturn, noting a 201 point drop in the Dow and a slight rise in volatility. The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes are discussed, revealing some disappointment in inflation data but maintaining a medium-term 2 percent inflation target. The episode also covers lower than expected April existing home sales, likely due to tight housing inventory and higher rates, yet notes a 5.7 percent year-over-year price increase. UK inflation rose slightly more than expected to 2.3%, attributed to weaker economic fundamentals compared to the US. China's potential increase in tariffs on large autos from the US and Europe is mentioned, seen as a tit-for-tat move against the Biden administration's tariff raises. Additionally, the episode previews economic indicators to be released the following day, including jobless claims and PMI numbers. The Bonson Group's role as investment professionals and the disclaimer regarding investment risks and advice conclude the commentary.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:18 Market Movements and Federal Reserve Insights 01:16 Housing Market Dynamics 02:10 Global Economic Indicators: UK Inflation and China's Tariff Strategy 02:48 Looking Ahead: Economic Calendar and Closing Thoughts 03:10 Disclaimer and Professional Advice Notice

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - May 21, 2024 May 21, 2024

This episode of Dividend Cafe provides a weekly market commentary with a focus on dividends and economic insights. On May 21, the markets saw a slight increase despite the lack of major economic news, with the Dow up by 66 points and both NASDAQ and S&P 500 up by about a quarter of a point. Interest rates were slightly down, with the 10-year treasury dropping three basis points. Fed officials, including Waller, shared diverse views on the economy, generally indicating a cautious approach towards changing interest rates. The episode also discusses the current low market volatility, compares GDP in aggregate versus per capita with Japan as a case study, and looks ahead to the FOMC meeting minutes and existing home sales reports. Lastly, it emphasizes the importance of not becoming complacent due to current positive market conditions.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Market Overview: A Quiet Summer Day 00:45 Federal Reserve Speakers and Interest Rate Insights 01:22 Market Volatility and Economic Indicators 02:39 GDP Insights and Global Economic Trends 03:21 Looking Ahead: FOMC Meeting and Home Sales 03:34 Closing Remarks and Compliance Information

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - May 20, 2024 May 20, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ypYWzx

We recap market activity on Monday, May 20th. The Dow started positively but lost momentum, closing down 196 points. The S&P and NASDAQ saw modest gains. China's market performance may be indicating an upward trend. Additionally, there was news about a helicopter crash in Iran, potential Middle Eastern tensions, and upcoming OPEC meetings. There are possible changes in capital reserve requirements for U.S. banks, the employee retention tax credit, increased tariffs on China, and the impact of these policies. We look at homeowners and renters in the U.S. Lastly, insights into recent Fed speeches and their stance on inflation and rate adjustments

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Fear is Often a Greedy Thing May 17, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QOLsna

The second quarter of 2024 hit its midpoint this week, and markets have continued with what has been a big rally in the month of May. As earnings season has now concluded and the Fed is sidelined for a bit, we might expect things to chill out for a bit, but markets never sleep, so who knows. But this week’s Dividend Cafe does give you a pretty good look at the yield curve and what it predicts (or doesn’t), along with a cogent expectation for inflation, some fascinating things Japan can teach us (or not), some campaign questions for Team Biden, and then ultimately – a real behavioral lesson that may just make or break your success as an investor.

So yes, the opportunity inside this week’s Dividend Cafe is serious. Let’s jump in!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - May 16, 2024 May 16, 2024

Market Update and Economic Indicators: A Snapshot

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on Thursday, May 16th, the host provides a summary of the day's market activity, noting a flat day in the markets with a brief touch on 40,000 points on the Dow. Despite a mild decline by the close, bond yields rose slightly, and recent economic indicators including the CPI data, Philly fed and empire state manufacturing indexes, and industrial production, suggest a steady, if not expanding, economy. Brian also points out the positive jobless claims data and the rebound in new home constructions as signs of economic health. Additionally, an increase in real personal income and a 35% rise in the S&P 500 since the pre-pandemic period are highlighted as indicators that do not point towards an immediate recession. The episode concludes with a look forward to the next Dividend Cafe installment and wishes for a good weekend.

00:02 Market Overview: A Flat Yet Positive Day 00:38 Manufacturing and Economic Indicators: Holding Steady 01:05 Employment and Income: Signs of Economic Health 02:25 Housing Market and Inflation: A Positive Outlook 03:05 Closing Thoughts and Look Ahead

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - May 15, 2024 May 15, 2024

Market Update: A Positive Turn with Cooler Inflation Numbers

This episode of Dividend Cafe provides a financial market update for Wednesday, May 15th, marking a positive trading day with the Dow up by 349 points and a rally in bonds. The episode highlights a cooler than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April at 0.3%, indicating a positive trend in inflation rates. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed signals with March's deflationary revision and a hotter April.

These figures suggest a potential 2.8% year-over-year Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is crucial for Federal Reserve considerations.

Despite lower than expected retail sales and a contractionary Empire Manufacturing Survey, the episode suggests these are potentially positive signs for the Fed to lower interest rates.

00:19 Inflation and Economic Indicators Update 01:17 Retail Sales and Manufacturing Insights 01:54 Closing Thoughts and Tomorrow's Preview

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - May 14, 2024 May 14, 2024

A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets. Reach out with questions anytime! questions@thebahnsengroup.com.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - May 13, 2024 May 13, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UXaYJe

Markets opened to the upside and then spent the first half of the day declining (but not by much) and the second half of the day around that declined spot.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In Theory but not in Practice May 10, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4afqiVW

As I finish up this writing Friday morning the Dow is tracking for its eight consecutive day in positive territory (I have little doubt that my mere typing of that sentence likely jinxed it). The market reversal from April into May can be credited to a combination of:

Renewed acknowledgment that regardless of when the Fed begins cutting rates they have made it reasonably clear they are done hiking rates, and

Marginally improved financial markets liquidity in the present tense and with a vision to the future around the tapering of quantitative tightening, and

A good fundamental backdrop for corporate profits with another earnings season in the books reflective of enduring margins, reasonable forward guidance, and revenue growth in line with expectations

It is a bad time to be a market timer. But I don’t think anyone can even time when it is a good time to be a market timer, so maybe I am just repeating myself over and over. Anyways, we know what time it is at The Bahnsen Group …

… and it is time to jump into the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - May 9, 2024 May 09, 2024

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - May 8, 2024 May 08, 2024

A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets. Reach out with questions anytime!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - May 7, 2024 May 07, 2024

A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets. Reach out with questions anytime!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - May 6, 2024 May 06, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44ut20E

The jobs report Friday was the talk of the town, with 175,000 new jobs being created in April, well below the 240,000 estimate. It was the government sector that most missed expectations, with the private sector representing 167,000 of the new jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%.

Wages were only up +0.1% on the month and are now up +3.9% year-over-year. There is a real irony in how this gets digested, because some say, “oh no, wage growth lower than we want is bad” and others say “yay, too much wage growth creates a wage-price inflation spiral so this is good to see as a disinflationary sign. I think both camps have it wrong.

29 million of the roughly 158 million people employed in the United States works for a S&P 500 company (18% or so). Some I have shared this with expressed surprise it wasn’t higher, and some were shocked it was so high. Data is in the eye of the beholder, I guess.

The bottom 50% of health care spenders account for a grand total of 3% of total health care costs (less than $390 per year). The top 5%, on the other hand, account for 51% of all health care spending.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Month of May is Here to Stay May 03, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bjQ9x6

“Sell in May and go away” became an adage some people love to say in our business, and I really have no idea where it came from. Whenever people ask me if we follow that adage I reply the same as I do about any other “adage” – things that are made up to offer a cute rhyme may not necessarily be the best way to formulate an investment policy.

Some months markets go down. Some months really good investment plans see the holdings in a portfolio increase in price, and other times decrease in price, The investment plan is not better or worse in some months than the others – it is all part of the plan presumably put together.

Various calendar correlations, almanac tidbits, and nursery rhyme poetry are not investment strategies. They are actually not even good at understanding correlations, let alone causations, as most of these things on their own merits and claims are merely 50/50 propositions.

But what is a real investable philosophy is what you can find in the pages of Dividend Cafe. And for a discussion of all those things and more, we start … now …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - May 2, 2024 May 02, 2024

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - May 1, 2024 May 01, 2024

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - April 30, 2024 Apr 30, 2024

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - April 29, 2024 Apr 29, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dd0xsl

Economic Front The big economic news last week was the 1.6% annualized real GDP growth for Q1 when +2.5% had been expected. The 3.4% of Q4 (again, all these numbers are annualized, which is just how they get discussed) was not going to repeat itself, but 1.6% vs. 2.5% projected and 2.7% in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was a big step down. The positive side is that manufacturing appears to be picking up, New Orders are on the rise, and low inventories now mean more manufacturing later.

Net exports were the biggest drag (-0.9%), and, as is almost always the case, consumption was the largest contributor (+1.7%). Capex contributed just +0.4%.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) was up +2.7% year-over-year last month, matching expectations. Personal Income rose +0.5% in March, in line with expectations.

54% of people worked at firms with less than 500 employees in 1980. That number is just over 46% now. The fertility rate in the U.S. dropped to 1.62 last year, the lowest on record. Our fertility rate has been below the 2.1 replacement level for 17 years now.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Drawdowns, Deficits, and Debunking a Myth Apr 26, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49UmDwH

The first thing I will say is that by popular demand, we will be adding back the “What’s on David’s Mind” to the Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday email blasts starting next week for Dividend Cafe subscribers (and on some days, “What’s on Brian’s Mind”). By and large, the feedback to the newly revamped Dividend Cafe has been overwhelmingly positive, and a few knobs turned on the daily programming will continue to fine-tune. Thank you all for your feedback; we are very excited to have one property, one brand, and one medium to deliver the TBG thought leadership to you.

This week we are going to look at the history of yields from the market today, the history of market drawdowns, the state of commodities, the future of national debt, some global debt to avoid, expectations for Chinese economic growth, the energy sector, and finally, some Presidential conspiracy theories. That’s a lot to pack into one Friday. No one said this would be easy; we only said it would be fun.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - April 25, 2024 Apr 25, 2024

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - April 24, 2024 Apr 24, 2024

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - April 23, 2024 Apr 23, 2024

A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets. Reach out with questions anytime!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - April 22, 2024 Apr 22, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3wbacib

Welcome to the new and improved Dividend Cafe. What you see today will be a weekly Dividend Cafe each and every Monday from yours truly, complete with a podcast and video. It has come for years now on Monday, once under the umbrella of “COVID & Markets” and after that under “The DC Today.” We are simply incubating it under Dividend Cafe, so there is just one list, one website, and one brand behind it all. You will note on the home page of Dividend Cafe that we are running a daily market recap that will include closing data every day along with key economic indicators. Additionally, we will be running an Ask TBG on that home page, where questions will be answered every day. Every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, that market recap with the podcast and an Ask TBG will be emailed to subscribers., And then Friday, the same weekly Dividend Cafe article we have always done (see next paragraph) will go, per usual. So check out the new Dividend Cafe, all its bells and whistles, and share feedback with us any time!

The Friday Dividend Cafe looked at the subject of contrarian investing, the state of the dollar, and a few thoughts on oil and politics, and the comedy of bitcoin as a “flight to safety” this last Friday. The written version is here (my favorite), the video is here, and the podcast is here.

Into the second quarter of 2024, it may be a good time to review our outlook entering 2024 and major themes as we continue through the year.

Off we go …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Bad Drivers, Good Dollars, and Crony Deals Apr 19, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JLnpSl

It has been an interesting week in the market, but as you will see in the first paragraph below it may seem like nothing happened whatsoever. That is more common than people think. Today we visit the state of the U.S. dollar, the “safe haven” of bitcoin, the politics of oil, the nature of contrarian investing, and more. Just a lot of easy-bite tidbits to edify you this beautiful spring weekend.

And before I remind you that a new and improved Dividend Cafe is coming any day, jump on in, to this Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, April 18, 2024 Apr 18, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3w8tK6R

Somewhat of a repeat of yesterdays market action with a positive morning failing to hold momentum and falling off into the close in more consolidation in markets around rates. We did eek out a small gain on the Dow, but the SP500 closed slightly lower for the fifth session in a row. The 2-YR Treasury is back to YTD highs at just under 5% and 10-YR was up 5 bps today to 4.63%. For what was on the docket today in the economic calendar, mostly good news. Jobless claims, existing home sales and manufacturing data all modestly ahead of expectations, but it just wasn’t enough to keep the momentum on the day. There isn’t a lot of economic news for the remainder of this week, and most eyes will be on the PCE figures out next Friday.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, April 17, 2024 Apr 17, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TX5X1I

What started off as a positive trading morning, slid negative as the day progressed. Powell’s comments yesterday were debated as to whether he took his ‘Pivot’ from October back. Not to worry, because first, I don’t think he did take it back and two rate cuts are still priced in to Fed futures, and second, as I mentioned yesterday there is enough in the economy that is good at this time to withstand a delayed move lower in rates by a few months. The Fed’s beige book out today supported that general positive undertone in the economy which helped us off the lows of the day a few hours before closing as well.

Seeing as we all made our tax payments this week, yesterday we saw the US Government take in the most it ever has in tax collections from corporations and non withheld amounts at $155B. The previous high water mark was back in 2022 following a big year prior and reopening after the pandemic when the same April figure was $121B. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is expecting total tax receipts for the full year 2024 to come in right near that record level in 2022 at roughly $4.93T. This is good news for the budget deficit and the growth rate of Treasury bill issuance which is set to decline for the first time in two years, although still won’t put us any where near an actual budget surplus when we are talking about chipping away at a $2T deficit.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, April 16, 2024 Apr 16, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q5001u

A mixed day of trading between positive and negative all morning and right into the market close with the Dow slightly higher and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just below fair value. Rates continue their move higher, with the 10-year up 4 bps and now at the 4.66% level. So aside from what so far has been a tougher start to the second quarter, a few things to keep in mind:

Rates and Fed futures have reset higher based just as much on stronger-than-expected good things in the economy, such as earnings growth, GDP, and employment, as they have on inflation expectations.

We are still only 4% from all-time highs in the S&P 500 when the historical intra-year drawdown is more like 14% on average. So, yes, markets are down a little here, and volatility is up with higher rates, but keep in mind this is pretty run-of-the-mill market consolidation at most at this point.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, April 15, 2024 Apr 15, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q2J5g8

Against Doomsdayism

Where this Iran-Israel atrocity goes from here, what should and should not have been done, what and should not be done, what it will mean for markets and oil prices – all these things notwithstanding, the winner of the weekend appears to be anti-missile defense systems, first pursued by the Reagan administration in the 1980’s. The ability for this technology across multiple mediums to bat nearly a thousand in putting down missiles and drones coming in hot to do unspeakable damage is, well, vindicating. The specifics of the various technologies and strategies are fascinating, but for now, we celebrate those whose vision was to shoot down missiles and missiles, from ground and from air. Such military investment saves lives, and deserves our celebration.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

One of These Years is Not Like the Other Apr 12, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JfyXwQ

I cannot tell you how much fun it is for me to spend three hours on a Friday morning reading research. Reading when it is dark outside is the single activity that brings me the most joy, and I love the inspiration it fostered for today's Dividend Cafe

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, April 11, 2024 Apr 11, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JfyXwQ

A modestly positive day in markets overall today on some better-than-expected PPI numbers following yesterday’s selloff on CPI. So what one-day taketh, another giveth back (well, not quite). The Producer Price Index numbers showed a gain of just .2% for the month on headline when .3% was expected, and the Core PPI only gained .1% for the month. The takeaway is PPI is just not confirming a reacceleration in inflation on the wholesale side, which is a positive.

We unpacked yesterday’s CPI numbers pretty well, I thought, but I am sharing this chart from our friends at Strategas with you below to show you where rate expectations have now moved since. My point here is that while they have moved meaningfully higher, I do believe this to be a good thing, contrary to what some may say. The economy, employment, and the markets have all digested these higher rate expectations and it’s simply far healthier for markets to focus and trade on the actual fundamentals of the economy and earnings versus solely on the hopes of looser monetary policy. Shown below, we came into the year expecting Fed funds at 3.5% by Christmas and have now priced in just two rate cuts and ending this year closer to 4.75%. The bar of Fed expectations has been reset to a level high enough that it is now more supportive for markets than the opposite at this point.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, April 10, 2024 Apr 10, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PWoA4P

A down day in both stocks and bonds today following a disappointment on CPI numbers by one tenth on both Headline and Core, that sent the Dow down XXX points and the 10-year bond yield up .18XXbps. We expected .3% on both and got .4% instead to cause todays action, so on one hand a risk off day as higher rates were priced in on yields, and on the other, the difference of a tenth is far from dramatic in and of itself.

I do believe the Federal Reserve is an independent institution adhering to its employment and price stability mandates. I also believe they are aware of the Fiscal paradigm as well however (not driven by, but aware). Do I think a $2T budget deficit when we are at full employment with interest expense now accounting for 17% of tax revenue when our average termed government debt interest rate is only at 3.3% is on their radar in terms of Quantitative Tightening, yes I do. They can’t go until inflation gives them the OK sign (or gets close enough), but they are ready to reduce rates later this year as they’ve telegraphed, and from the Fed minutes released just today my point on reducing QT will come in to play sooner than later.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, April 9, 2024 Apr 09, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aKgDaL

We traded mostly lower the entire day today but then rallied back to fair value the last hour or so of trading. Tomorrow we have CPI out, and with a lack of other meaningful economic data today and right before earnings season heats up later this week, markets were mixed in anticipation. Bonds did rally across the curve giving back some of the back up in rates we have seen the past few sessions with the 10-year down 6bps.

With earnings season set to start this Friday, a quick recap of where expectations lie: 3% revenue growth, 5% earnings growth on the quarter with a big up tick in Utility (believe it or not) earnings growth up 18%. For the year we are still looking at roughly $243 per share on the SP500 or about 10% growth from the previous year. Sectors where the bar on expectations is set fairly high at this point are in technology and communications, with Energy and Materials the opposite so it will be interesting to see where markets price the actual results in comparison.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, April 8, 2024 Apr 08, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aMHEug

Economic Front

The primary news of the weekend was the 303k new jobs created in March, up by 89k over expectations. A full 232k of that came from the private sector. The two prior months were revised upwards by 22k. The household survey was up huge, as well. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%.

Construction was solid (39k new j obs), and leisure and hospitality led the way, with private education and health care strong as well. The annual gain in wages is +4.1%, and the average hours worked went up to 34.4 (had been 34.3).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Mystical Psychic Garden and You Apr 05, 2024

Today's Post -

The stock market dropped this week and it has given me a chance to write a Dividend Cafe about one of my favorite topics – the crucial importance of predicting the future, reading the tea leaves, and all that good stuff. I have strong opinions about people’s talent in such projections and the relevance of such to one’s long-term financial success. So today we are going to just have at it and talk about this week’s market volatility and what it means to you.

Some of you are going to be really, really disappointed (if I did my job right).

Jump on in, to the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, April 4, 2024 Apr 04, 2024

Today's Post -

Our morning rally in stocks turned decisively negative midday. There was geo-political tension with Iran threatening action after Israel’s strike on Syria and then some mixed messaging from different Fed presidents today that seemed to both contribute to today’s decline. That said, there really wasn’t a whole lot to warrant such a large 750-point swing from top to bottom on the day, so some strange market action with volatility picking up.

While the overall labor force participation rate has come up recently, it’s still on the lower end of the historical norm at about 62.5%. It’s interesting to see the bifurcation of what’s driving it. The participation rate amongst the largest cohort of working 25-54 year olds is actually the highest it has ever been in this country at 83.5%, while the 54+ is basically at the lowest level it has ever been at about 38.5%. Read into that what you will, but the charts seem to shift just following the pandemic with a greater gap between the two cohorts. Younger folks with fewer assets had less wealth effects from rising prices, while the opposite was more prevalent in the older is my take.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, April 3, 2024 Apr 03, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U2mBhF

A modestly positive trading day today in markets with both stocks a little higher and the VIX lower following a few down days. ADP payroll numbers for March came in quite strong at 184k, although the actual employment report this Friday will get more attention. Powell had comments out today that reiterated their patient approach on lowering rates which is really just more of the same with Fed futures unchanged. Sort of a quiet day really all around.

As the office REIT space recovers, earnings revisions for next year have brought the average estimate from -1.8% to now 12.2% for 2025. Healthcare REIT’s have also seen a huge revision from -17.2% to now 6.9% for next year EPS estimates. In fact of all 10 industries in the SP500 with upward revisions for next year, 6 of them are in the REIT space overall. Now, I imagine if interest rates don’t move lower as much as expected the shine may wear off for these analysts, but interesting nonetheless.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, April 2, 2024 Apr 02, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JnoIqp

Although off the lows for the day, stocks closed down for a second day to start off the new quarter. 10-Year yields have now moved back towards the high end of their four-month range at 4.35%, which is about the level where we have seen markets start to pay more attention which is what today was about. Fed futures are still at 50/50 for a June cut and roughly 70% for July, and what’s being repriced into markets is rates that may stay a little higher this year.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, April 1, 2024 Apr 01, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cDHCqg

There is a lot of good stuff in the podcast today and, as always, we welcome your questions and curiosities.

Dividend Cafe looked at a number of things around the Fed, market valuation, inflation, and more on Friday.

We have some very exciting things in the works about our plans for daily and weekly content delivery, with even more additions and refinements coming. Meetings are underway and nothing will be ready to announce imminently but we are excited to bring what we are doing to another level.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Q1, The Fed, The Roaring 20's, and the Future Mar 29, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cDi2Sq

The first quarter of 2024 is in the history books (both because it is done, so therefore now history – and because it was a big quarter with a lot of surprises for market pundits). As you go into your Easter Weekend and enjoy the market holiday that is Good Friday, take a trip around the horn as we look at history, market valuations, passive investing, credit, money supply, financial conditions, and more.

Jump on in to the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, March 27, 2024 Mar 27, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TT4Scl

Another generally positive day in markets with today marking the 99th consecutive trading day that the SP500 closed above its 50 day moving average. This has happened many times in history believe it or not, and certainly isn’t even half way to 1995’s run of 257 (back when I was graduating high school), but its impressive none the less.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, March 26, 2024 Mar 26, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TTReFO

Markets traded positively for most of the day, although ended up closing slightly down by 31 points. This is the 10th time since 1950 that the SP500 has been up for 5 months in a row, so it certainly has happened enough before, but interesting that when I looked at those time periods 12 months following, they were also all in positive territory as well. All that said, earnings and fundamentals are going to have to pull their weight for that to happen an 11th time from these valuations (see David’s comments below).

Historically speaking, it’s also rare to see markets top when there is such broad participation in new 52-week highs. Typically, that internal breadth starts to show cracks before the overall market reaches its cycle peak and turns lower, and that is not what we are seeing today. Energy, by the way, has reaccelerated, with now 80% of the sector at 3-month highs, as that market rotation and broadening of sector returns continues.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, March 25, 2024 Mar 25, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49cizrs

Greetings from Dallas, Texas where I am the next two days before then getting to Houston on Wednesday and then to the TBG offices in Austin and doing three events there for a couple of days before returning to NYC on Friday. Today’s DCT is housing-heavy with plenty else in the mix to make it worth your time.

Dividend Cafe looked further into the time-tested wisdom of dividend growth investing, the historical factors that involved over the past few decades, and the lay of the land in the years ahead.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dividend Logic vs. Speculative Madness Mar 22, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4924jl3

Predictions are fun. They are not, though, at the heart of the investment business. They can be very important in the methodology and process of some speculators, and they can even be marginally additive for some investors. But “predictions” are not quite the same as “calculations,” and they are categorically different from “belief systems.” At the core of all good investors lies a philosophy. I find it an unimprovable joy in life to study the investing philosophies of great investors. I never, ever, ever find one who relies on “feel” or “just has that Midas touch.” That very thinking is for simpletons and know-nothings. Great investors execute well off of a cogent philosophy. Bad investors either fail to execute or have an improperly formed philosophy (or, worst of all, options; they have no discernable philosophy at all).

The Bahnsen Group embraces being defined by our investment philosophy, and we embrace being known by the role dividend growth plays within that philosophy. Dividend growth is not new. In fact, what is [relatively] new is NOT viewing the receipt of cash flow from the risk investments you make as a key objective in your investing and a significant part of your anticipated return. In today’s Dividend Cafe, we address the history of investor distraction from dividend monetization and the reorientation that we believe is about to shift the focus back to where it belongs. We are not talking a “new normal” but rather a “return to normal normal.”

So jump on in to a very normal Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, March 21, 2024 Mar 21, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3vpQejx

Markets built on yesterdays rally today closing higher for a third straight session. For the markets, the porridge-is-just-right narrative around the balance of strong economic and employment backdrop combined with disinflation and a Fed that is now talking about slowing QT and accepting PCE at 2.6% this year (vs 2%) before they would begin cutting interest rates. Today we also had jobless claims and existing home sales both positive and supportive of that narrative as well. Keep in mind please, that markets are a forward looking pricing mechanism, and a lot of soft-landing narrative at this point is fully baked in. The question will be on fundamentals keeping up with those higher valuations names from here, and I still suspect there will be the haves vs. have-nots in that regard and the time for being selective here is very important.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, March 20, 2024 Mar 20, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/43pRAau

Generally, a pretty market-friendly statement from the Fed, with some upgrading on the economy with GDP estimates moving up from 1.4% to 2.0%, they lowered their unemployment rate forecasts from 4.1% to 4% and raised the Core PCE forecasts by two-tenths to 2.6% for the year (and we are already at 2.8% now mind you).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, March 19, 2024 Mar 19, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ViQThg

Markets built on gains quite nicely throughout the day today, with the Dow up 320 points, on an uncharacteristically consistent trading day heading into tomorrow’s FOMC decision and statement. The back up in rates we have seen the past two weeks eased a little today as well, with 10s down three basis points, which also supported our generally positive day. We are still in the range I mentioned on the 10-year, just at the higher end of it with 4.35%, the high watermark on the year so far.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, March 18, 2024 Mar 18, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3x6BWVi

Ask David “Are tech stocks likely not going to be good dividend growth stocks for the foreseeable future? Given their reliance on good and expensive R&D to keep market share? Seems to be a no-brainer to me. Dividends and more meaningful dividend growth is seemingly better in other sectors. Or am I just underestimating the time it takes for dividends to grow?

What will happen to tech stocks if they have poor dividends and stock price growth flattens out? Where would the value for shareholders come from? Or am I missing something or am I just worrying unnecessarily?”

~ Nathan

Some tech companies will not pay a dividend, some will, some will grow it, and some will not. Technology is way too broad of a sector to answer in the context of monolithic treatment of dividends. What is constant where there are technology companies that pay consistent and growing dividends is that the company is mature, has recurring cash flows, and management that has exited the ego phase of corporate oversight. Value does not come from dividends – it comes from profits. The value of those profits is realized in dividends. If profits are not returned to shareholders but used to create more profits, that is where value creation could come from. Or, that is where value could be destroyed.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Dilemma Mar 15, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3IEE4WR

Dividend growth investing is counter-cultural. It goes against the grain of “hot dots” and “shiny objects.” It functions outside the fads and fashions of the moment. And it insists that ancient ideas like “cash flow matters” are still relevant today (amongst many other ideas). It seeks performance and productivity but not popularity. It flows from a belief system and not a crowd. It is, indeed, counter-cultural.

It also is not always understood correctly. Several misnomers persist that, if better understood, could jeopardize its counter-cultural status. One of my great fears in life is that dividend growth investing recaptures its status as “the known best way to do equity investing.” All things being equal, if dividend growth investing became a consensus understanding of the masses, I still wouldn’t change my belief system one iota, but I prefer running a portfolio at 15.2x forward earnings when the market is trading at 21x … the “non-shininess” of the strategy adds value.

Nevertheless, when it comes to the Dividend Cafe, it is my sworn duty to inform, educate, equip, and edify, so clearing up misnomers is not just allowed but required. If enough people read and adopt the truth, I may have to sacrifice the counter-cultural status of dividend growth, but I’ll know I did the world some good. So today, we shall clear up a couple of things and even dig into some recent history.

And as is always the case with financial markets, the more you understand the past, the better prepared you will be for the future! Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, March 14, 2024 Mar 14, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cjgL2o

Markets were lower on the day with some higher than expected Producer Price Index numbers for the month of February that were up .6% versus .3% expected. Keep in mind, the year over year number on that same headline gauge is only at 1.6%, albeit up from the 1% read the month prior. If we annualize the last three months that included some of the higher figures, we get to around 3% year over year. This may not be exactly where we want to be at this point, but as I have mentioned, the path towards our target was just never going to happen in a straight line either.

Commercial real estate values have begun to show some recovery in the past few months. The chart below shows both the decline in values we just went through and the beginning of recovery, but more importantly, the 20%+ run up that preceded it. The protective equity during the recent decline in values was hugely inflated leading into it, so when we hear about a looming crisis in something like commercial office loans, from an LTV perspective there was already a larger cushion, and borrows make payments when there is equity. I am not saying there isn’t stress in non class-A office, but if prices are leveling I am not sure it will materialize into more at this point.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, March 13, 2024 Mar 13, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3wTpet0

The Dow eked out a small gain, with both the SP500 and Nasdaq closing modestly lower. Yields drifted a little higher today

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, March 12, 2024 Mar 12, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3wT2REd

A positive trading day in stocks with a fresh new read on CPI that was largely in line with expectations, with both Headline and Core up .4% for the month of February. While these are close to the same print we got in January that caused our 1.5% selloff, February’s read was priced in at this point, and if anything, more reaffirmed that the prior month ticking higher was more a one-off than a new longer-term trend. Yields were modestly higher across the curve, and Fed futures are at 60% for a June rate cut at this point. There is plenty of data from now until then, but all things being equal, our disinflation narrative remains intact.

A quick state of the US labor force:

Total Labor force participation rate total 16+ years at 62% = Not Great
Labor force participation rate amongst 25-54 Yr. old’s at 83% = Great
Labor force participation rate amongst 55+ at 38% = Abysmal (the chart fell off a cliff in the pandemic and hasn’t recovered)
Total US Labor Force at a total of 160MM employed = Good

The overall participation rate is still historically low at 62% (67%+ would be cooking with grease). Demographically however, with still positive population growth in the US, compared to declining population numbers in some other parts of the world (i.e. Europe, Japan, China), there is an advantage.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, March 11, 2024 Mar 11, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/43bfaYw

Futures opened last night pretty flat and slightly improved into the evening, but this morning, futures pointed to a down -130 point open pre-market.
The market opened down 100 points and got down -230 points before rebounding about +300 from there.
The Dow closed up 47 points (+0.12%), with the S&P 500 down -0.11% and the Nasdaq down -0.41%.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

When Just One Topic Won't Do Mar 08, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49VU9Du

It's been a weird week to pick a topic for the Dividend Cafe. I have about six topics mapped out for future Dividend Cafes, yet none of them grabbed me to do this week. I took an Acela to DC from New York on Wednesday late afternoon and felt pretty inspired about one topic, and then felt inspired about another as I took the train back to NYC 24 hours later. I did a panel with David Malpass, recent president of the World Bank and Treasury Department Deputy Secretary for three Presidents, at the Library of Congress yesterday, and when I came off that stage, I had a whole new inspiration for today's Dividend Cafe. I did a podcast with John Mauldin earlier in the week that put many ideas on the table (as all my talks with John always do). We had a State of the Union address last night and experienced "Super Tuesday" just a few days ago. The White House announced plans for credit card fee restrictions this week. And the Fed announced a reversal of plans for onerous new "Basel 3" capital requirements on banks.

Do you see what I am saying? I have had one idea, inspiration, or fodder after another for this Dividend Cafe all week, and when it comes time to put pen to paper, the only choice I have is to do …. All of the Above!

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe. We have a lot to talk about!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, March 7, 2024 Mar 07, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3T43

A second positive day in markets and one with a little more conviction than yesterday, with the SP500 notching a new high. Powell gave his second day of testimony to Congress. Lagarde at the ECB held rates unchanged at 4%, although he did tilt the scales more toward assuredness that inflation was lower and June was the base case on when rates start to move lower. I have more conviction in the US waiting until June with growth forecasts in the mid-2 % range than I do the ECB, given GDP forecasts in Germany are a tenth of that at .25%, but we shall see. Higher debt levels lead to lower growth, lead to lower rates – rinse, wash, and repeat.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, March 6, 2024 Mar 06, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3P9T82G

After two down days to start the week, we closed higher on the day after Powell’s comments to Congress. He reiterated a peak in rates and a plan to lower rates once he has more data to confirm that 2% path beforehand. We have a more chart-heavy DC Today for you (my favorite), as the information pictorially is too good to pass up.

Today, we got ADP payroll numbers largely in line with expectations, and there are reasons employment and, frankly, this market has defied all that doubted it in the wake of this meteoric rise in interest rates. Rising markets, tightening credit spreads, low jobless claims, fiscal deficits at 6% of GDP, and infrastructure spending have all eased financial conditions to become EASIER than where they were BEFORE the Fed began raising interest rates from the zero bound.

We have spoken about both consumers’ and corporations’ resilience from rising rates as they locked in lower rates before this cycle, but the financial conditions in green in the chart below show the backdrop of the market’s resilience in light of rates as well.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, March 5, 2024 Mar 05, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3T7Ki6D

Markets opened lower and traded that way the remainder of the day in stocks, with bonds catching a bid and rates falling across the curve. We actually had good numbers on both services ISM and PMI numbers, although there may have been some market angst over Powell potentially sounding hawkish tomorrow in front of Congress, and we just gave a little back on the day. Q4 earnings season is basically a wrap at this point, and while the quarter came in great at 9.8%, the earnings per share growth on the entire year was just .5%. Q4 acceleration is expected to last for most of 2024 with earnings expected to be up another 10% and then somewhere closer to 13% in 2025. Margins have also advanced recently up to 16.8%, and while all of these things are of course generally good, this move up we’ve seen the first two months of the year seems to already have taken note.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, March 4, 2024 Mar 04, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4c33Ql2

Manufacturing contracted in February again, coming in at 47.8 in the latest ISM measurement (below 50 is contraction, above 50 expansion). Manufacturing has contracted every month since November 2022.

Export orders picked up a bit but the other categories were all negative. However, 8 out of 18 sectors saw expansion this month where last month is was only four.

For what it is worth, the states with the highest population growth since 2019 (by %) are Idaho (+10%), Utah (+7%), Montana (+6%), Texas (+5%), and Florida (+5%). Right behind those leaders all tied at +4% is Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. The only states to have negative population growth are California (-1%), West Virginia, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

Services remain below their pre-COVID share of total consumer spending.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

How Heavy is this Shoe? Mar 01, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cbq1G7

This last week appears to (as of Friday morning’s press time) not been a particularly active one in equity markets. The Fed had no big announcements. Bond yields barely budged. Earnings season is very close to complete, and companies doing reporting of results have become few and far between. We are in a market news cycle lull, which is the perfect time to talk about alternative investments. “Huh?,” you ask. “What does the news cycle have to do with alternative investments like private credit?”

All will be revealed. But in the meantime, I guess I should clarify that I never believe Dividend Cafe should be tied to a particular headline or market event. I may choose to do so here and there. But even then, those “ad hoc” news events become relevant to the Dividend Cafe only to the extent the lesson or message itself is a permanently relevant message. Some may be delivered in a more “timely” context than others, but what I want every week’s Dividend Cafe to be is something that can be read any time past, present, or future, and stand up. Day-to-day market reporting and analysis has its place (barely), but the Dividend Cafe is my baby for macro, evergreen truth and perspective. It will be the last thing I ever give up in this full-time endeavor, and by give up, I mean something rather morbid.

So I write in today’s Dividend Cafe about something unrelated to the news cycle, the headlines, and big market noise, not merely because it was a quiet week on the western front but because every week should be a topic divorced from noise and focused on substance. Noise is the enemy of investor success. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, February 29, 2024 Feb 29, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3uKcswq

A positive day in markets this Leap Year Thursday centered around PCE data that was inline with estimates for the month of January with December being revised lower. Headline year over year PCE rose 2.4%, and removing food and energy, Core PCE increased 2.8% from a year earlier. The dichotomy for 2023 was between goods price deflation of -.5% and services price inflation of 3.9%. So where does this all leave us? T

his was the last major inflation data point prior to the FOMC meeting on 3/20, so the Fed is leaving rates unchanged in March, most likely the same (as of now) in May, with about a 50/50 chance for a rate cut in June. The bond market, fed futures, and the Fed’s own dot plots are estimating 75 bps of rate cuts by the end of the year.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, February 28, 2024 Feb 28, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3SZYlea

The sectors that have historically performed the best following a rising Real Fed Funds rate in the past have been defensives like Staples, Utilities and Energy. The latter is obviously subject to commodity volatility in WTI, but its worth noting the strong out performance in Q4 results in Staples. We have exposure based on the bottom up fundamentals we like, but if there were also a part of the market to be watched with a contrarian lens as breadth shifts from tech elsewhere, these are on my list.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, February 27, 2024 Feb 27, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TeiRcu

A bit of a mixed day in markets with the Dow closing off its lows for the day down 96 points. The treasury raised $46B in seven year paper with a bid to cover ratio in the mid fifteens versus the thirteens where it has been (meaning there more buyers).

I suppose if the big news in Asia today was a ‘hotter’ inflation read at 2% in Japan with 10 year government bonds rising to their highest yield since 2011 at an eye popping .165%, its no wonder this auction near 4.32% cleared with more demand. Capital will always flow around the world where it is most rewarded and with attractive economic fundamentals and positive real yields, its why the US Dollar is nearing its 2020 pandemic apex and trading 17% above its historical average versus trading peers. Short term, this can make US exports more expensive which can slow growth, and also further trade imbalance as we already import more things then we export, but its a net positive long term. Tomorrows trade balance figures may reveal more there

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, February 26, 2024 Feb 26, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Iya6nH

Financial markets have absorbed the $1.5 trillion (or so) of quantitative tightening thus far quite well, but reverse repos were at high levels, and bank reserves (and money market liquidity) were not challenged. Will the Fed press more QT when RRP’s hit zero? Color me skeptical.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Lessons of a Japanese Milestone Feb 23, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3uNB8E7

History was made this week, and no, I am not talking about DA Jack McCoy retiring after 400 episodes on Law & Order, but rather the Japanese Nikkei closing at 39,098 on Wednesday night, its highest close in history, surpassing the previous closing high … which was (wait for it) … December 29, 1989. Yes, almost 35 years ago the Nikkei closed at 38,916, and finally re-reached and exceeded that level this week. It gives new meaning to the expression “buy and hold.”

But beyond the statistical and numerical takeaways of what may seem like a distant story unrelated to the plight of American investors, the tale of modern finance embedded in the last four decades of Japanese economic life is one for the ages. It has been a mild obsession of mine for many years, and I fully intend to finish a deeper white paper on the entire saga in the years to come. But today is not that white paper, as exciting for your insomnia as that prospect may be. Rather, I want to provide a succinct look at the history of what happened and what a key, if not the key, takeaway of the whole thing is for American investors.

Jump on in to the Dividend Cafe, and let’s pretend we left off in the mid-1980’s, in a very different time than we find ourselves today, Yet in many ways, perhaps not that different at all.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, February 22, 2024 Feb 22, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3OUiHEJ

A big rally day today across the board, but particularly in technology stocks primarily fueled by AI euphoria. I honestly, can’t remember a time when the point move in the Nasdaq was almost on par with that of the Dow, up X and X respectively in what is more and more feeling like 1999. Japan however, is feeling more and more like 1989, closing at an all time high today surpassing its market peak of 12/12/1989, about a month after the fall of the Berlin wall when instead of trading stocks I was trading baseball cards. You read that right, it has taken the Nikkei 34 years to regain a new height following of the largest asset bubbles in the modern era. Do valuations matter? Yes, indeed they do.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, February 21, 2024 Feb 21, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3T6zpmI

We began the day positive at least for the few hours and lost momentum mid day. The Fed minutes released today showed broad agreement in the need for more confidence for inflation moving to a sustained 2% target before decreasing rates. While this wasn’t new information and followed what Powell already revealed in statement and his press conference following the meeting, the minutes showed more Fed constituents citing inflation risks with as their primary concern then overly restrictive rate policy, and that is what saw rates move a little higher this afternoon and stocks lower.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, February 20, 2024 Feb 20, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48o28b5

I love this long-form DC Today and I love writing all the things that go into it. A Monday holiday weekend just gives me even more time and space so hopefully all the things today fill your cup.

Dividend Cafe went into the mailbag and provided some key economic definitions, some commentary on the Fed, a better understanding of capital spending, alternative investments, and even a reference to Steve Martin. Lots of great questions with succinct, understandable answers!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Weekend Mailbag Edition Feb 16, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42K4tM5

Greetings from beautiful Palm Beach, Florida, where by the time you are getting this, I will have left my fourth Floridian city in five days and returned to New York City. It has been a whirlwind of a week in markets, in the data, in the political scene, in the weather, and in Florida speaking. But this week we took a whirlwind of questions covering a lot of topics and did a special “mailbag” Dividend Cafe. As always, the questions cover a lot of topics, and as always, the answers are meant to be succinct, direct, and clear. I love corresponding with your questions and I hope the wide audience of Dividend Cafe finds these questions (and answers) useful.

This week we cover some inflation/deflation vocabulary, even bringing back vital words like velocity and Japanification. We evaluate the way the BLS covers the hilarity of social media “influencers.” We look at what the Fed should be doing in the world they have created. And really, so much more!

Always feel free to reach out with questions of your own, and in the meantime, jump on into the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, February 15, 2024 Feb 15, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bySeX3

A consistently positive trading day in markets from start to finish, with the Dow closing at the highs for the day up 348 points. Yields have also settled in the last few sessions, which, as Tuesday’s knee-jerk move higher, gets normalized. Both the Empire and Philadelphia manufacturing index numbers came in meaningfully above expectations, and jobless claims also beat, so a few good data points in economic fundamentals.

We did get a second quarter of contracting GDP for Q4 out for both the UK and Japan, indicating recessions in both countries. Japan has now lost its third-place spot on the global GDP stage to Germany, falling to fourth. I mentioned this a few quarters ago, but it will be very difficult for central banks to stick to higher interest rates in slower-growth areas of the world. Stagflation will be something to watch in some of these areas if unemployment rises faster than inflation falls, but either way, rate cuts are soon to follow.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, February 14, 2024 Feb 14, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49ia3bk

A more productive day in markets today following yesterdays sell off with with the SP500 regaining the 5,000 level and bond yields giving back some of yesterdays back up in rates. As expected, internals yesterday were quite negative at -13 to 1 on the advance/decline ratio, but without credit spreads even budging, we move on. For what its worth, in a meeting with House members following the inflation release yesterday, Powell mentioned that the CPI data was consistent with what they had expected.

Moving back to actual fundamentals that matter more to me, with over two thirds of Q4 earnings season completed we are tracking a 9% growth rate for the SP500 on the year, with a few more percentage points to the upside by the time its all said and done. Hard to see issues in that, and margins are holding in nicely at 16.7% with another 10% of earnings growth expected for 2024. I do think the latter ends up getting revised lower, but it remains a positive backdrop nonetheless.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, February 13, 2024 Feb 13, 2024

Today's Post -https://bahnsen.co/49ze1fb

The big news today and cause for the market volatility was the latest read on inflation, with both Headline and Core CPI coming in one-tenth higher than expected (you read that right, above expectations by just one-tenth for the month). There were words thrown around like ‘hot’ inflation and a ‘spike’ in treasury yields circulated around the media to sensationalize it, and I am not at all making light of a down 524 point market day, but truth be told, while we are seeing a continued path of disinflation in this country, that path was never going to be a straight line. Keep in mind here as well that we came into today with 14 of the last 15 weeks to the upside by roughly 20% in stocks and a five-handle S&P 500 starting point. That long streak has only happened five times in history since 1928, with the last time being some 52 years ago.

Suffice it today, with a complacent VIX coming into today’s number, we were also frankly due for some of this sell-off. As one would have expected, yields moved higher across the curve on the day, with the 10YR closing up 15bps at 4.32%. We did come off the intra-day lows heading into the close, but a lot of this move felt overdone to me (both in yields and stocks.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, February 12, 2024 Feb 12, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42ztxFL

Greetings from the sunshine state of Florida, where I will be all week (different cities each day of the week) seeing clients, talking about the new book, and speaking to a very large symposium of fellow financial advisors. And thank you to all of you who gave such helpful feedback and encouragement on the DC Today weekly program! Brian and I both really appreciate it!

The Dividend Cafe on Friday looked at the relevance of work to our understanding of economics. It mixed in an updated thought on modern portfolio theory, and it concluded with a comparison of 2024 to 1999.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

To Care about Investors is to Care about Work Feb 09, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42BoynY

It’s been a whirlwind of a week, and today is going to be a whirlwind of a Dividend Cafe. I came into my writing this morning with two or three topics to choose between, and I settled on “all of the above, plus several more.” I’ll leave the introduction short so we can get right into it. Between earnings season, a certain crux in the geopolitical moment, potential (likely?) new tax legislation, a modest market re-pricing of revised Fed expectations, some company considerations in our own portfolio management, and a pleading of the case for a “full-time” work mentality, there has been a lot going on at Team Bahnsen, and there is a lot in today’s Dividend Cafe … Let’s jump in!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, February 8, 2024 Feb 08, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42FOvmj

Stocks rose modestly again today as we flirted with a five handle milestone on the SP500 intra day but closed just two points below. We are up 13 of the last 14 weeks, which is technically the longest streak since 1986. Good thing there wasn’t volatility the following October (joking aside 87’ still closed higher on the year believe it or not). All said, earnings have been quite good, the Fed is on hold for now with the next move lower rather than higher, employment and GDP are quite good, and inflation is subsiding, so the path of least resistance has been higher.

Elsewhere, with year over year decline in CPI out today the slowdown in China post pandemic has been one that few, if any, predicted. After decades of record economic growth aided by a rapidly expanding population and industrialization, growth has been slowing. There isn’t anything different about this playing out in China as it did in Europe and then the US mind you, it just happened faster because of technology and productivity being more advanced than in previous periods. Demographics in the country have also begun to shift. Today, 18% of the population is over the age of 60, and by the year 2032 over 32% will be, which will surpass that of the US. This isn’t to say there isn’t growth in China, it still grew GDP by 5.2% last year, but would you like to guess what the 30 year annual compounded return in the market has been there? -2.1% per year or about zero including dividends.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, February 7, 2024 Feb 07, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42zrukM

A consistently positive trading day in markets today without a lot of new economic data out, but I suppose no news is good news, so we’ll take it. We did have a widening trade deficit data released today roughly in line with expectations but I am intentionally keeping this intro short and sweet today to tee up the more meaty sections in the this podcast.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, February 6, 2024 Feb 06, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bqijHA

Markets traded modestly higher following global markets, particularly China, where broad indices closed higher by over 3%. Markets in China have given up over $7T in market value since peaking in March of 2021, and last night’s move had less to do with actual news than I think it just did with an oversold bounce on potential stimulus. I do suspect there will be more from the government there to stimulate the economy and a severely over-levered real estate market sooner rather than later.

Slower growth in China, means less Yuan to recycle back in US Treasuries, as that share of ownership continues to decline. There are still plenty of long-dated liabilities that need to be funded domestically with pensions and insurance companies and the like, but the supply this year will be massive with $8.9T in maturing Treasuries. Add on another $1T or more in deficits, and we will need to see over $10T absorbed in markets this year. This, along with the fact that government interest payments have already doubled from $350B in 2021 to now $700B, just has me skeptical that the Fed will continue to sell $60B a month with QT for a whole lot longer.

It was less of a data-driven market day, other than a host of Fed President comments, which I will sum up to effectively ‘…yeah, what he said…’ reiterating Powell’s Fed policy comments last week about more time needed with rates.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, February 5, 2024 Feb 05, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3HOoQy5

I am very excited to announce a few things going on with the DC Today …

First, we’ll start with the changes coming to the Monday edition of DC Today: None. I will continue writing and recording the Monday DC Today every week and will continue doing so in the “format” you see below (which follows the template from the old “COVID and Markets” days for you nostalgic types – be safe, be well, be free – and has been the Monday template throughout the history of DC Today). I enjoy doing this. I use a lot of weekend morning time pre-sun to do the writing. And Mondays before our weekly Investment Committee meeting commences don’t have the morning workload other days do. I will continue to make the time Monday afternoons to record the DC Today podcast and video, as well. So Monday stays as is and you’re stuck with me.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Should we care what the Fed does with interest rates? Feb 02, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47Xsqk9

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve met this week for their scheduled meeting and announced that … wait for it … they were not doing anything with interest rates. The market knew this was coming – futures have had a 100% chance of no increase or decrease in the Fed Funds rate at the January meeting for months – but markets went down -300 points after Fed chair, Jerome Powell, gave his customary press conference. The bond market went way up as yields dropped. And sure enough stocks caught up to bonds the very next day as the Dow jumped +370 points.

Maybe this sounds to you like a lot of drama for one or two market days when everyone already knew what was going to happen, and you would be right. But the question that many are asking is – if it doesn’t matter, why does it matter? In other words, why is market volatility so high and press attention so high about when the Fed will begin cutting rates? Maybe traders do dumb and speculative things but why do traders care about this so much? Why not focus on more important short term betting odds, like whether or not Travis and Taylor are going to get married?

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we explore the question of, “well, does it matter?” And to understand if it matters or not what the Fed does, we may want to understand what they do, exactly.

This is a good one. So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, February 1, 2024 Feb 01, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3SoXYtv

Welcome to the first day of February, and a 29 day leap year one at that. The Dow completely rebounded from yesterdays sell off in stocks, and the bond market has now had two big day of gains in a row with rates moving significantly lower across the curve. The Fed holding rates unchanged yesterday was expected, but the comments of a March rate cut not being the Feds base case until they see more supportive data is what moved markets.

Two quick points: The dot plots of where the FOMC sees rates by year end was unchanged following the meeting and 2-Yr treasury yields moving lower by 17 basis points in two days rather than higher isn’t a vote of confidence from the bond market its buying it at all. The reality is that economic data continues to be stronger than expected which is allowing them to take their time on easing policy, but markets are pricing it in advance anyway (as they always do). Speaking of stronger than expected economic data, there was a fair amount today with both productivity and ISM manufacturing data both beating expectations

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, January 31, 2024 Jan 31, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bhe01g

The Fed today did as expected, which was nothing, leaving rates in tact for what has now become a six-month pause. Chairman Powell reiterated the unlikelihood of a rate cut in March (more on that in a moment). Markets sold off with the Nasdaq especially getting pummeled (but it was already down over -1% on the day before the announcement. BUT, bond yields COLLAPSED, with yields dropping significantly making it a rare day (in the last year or so) where bonds rallied huge and stocks sold off quite a bit.

The Fed futures moved down to 35% for a rate cut in March but I have to say that is shocking. I would have thought they would go to 0% (okay, more like 10%) with the Fed Chair kind of saying they are not cutting yet. My best guess is enough actors in the market just believe the inflation data will come in so improved and economic data will come in so questionable between now and March 20 that the Fed will change their minds.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, January 30, 2024 Jan 30, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3HB81Xw

A pretty boring day in markets with the Dow up and Nasdaq down.

A lot of eyes are on what is coming next in the Middle East after the horrific murder of American lives over the weekend. Oil prices so far are not responding with any panic.

Microsoft and Google each release results after hours today. They are big companies, you may have heard.

Earnings growth of +4.9% (year-over-year) is expected this earnings season from an expectation of +2.7% y/y revenue growth. We are barely at 25% of companies having reported so far so we will do a better assessment of how this is tracking after each of the next two weeks.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, January 29, 2024 Jan 29, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48OKdeA

Ask David “What is the best argument for why the distributed independent decisions of individuals, families, and businesses create more beneficial outcomes for most people than the top-down, centralized decisions of government, especially the federal government?” ~ David K.

My argument is one of incentives and one of knowledge. These are two different arguments, even if they do overlap at points. Fundamentally, I believe better outcomes take place when the decision-makers reap benefits from their decisions and when decision-makers feel pain from bad decisions. I do not believe “disinterested third parties” (Thomas Sowell’s term) have the incentives to allocate and adjudicate risk and reward the way those with “skin in the game” do.

But beyond the classical incentive argument, I am very much a believer in what Friedrich Hayek referred to as the “knowledge problem.” Knowledge is widely dispersed throughout a society and no central entity possesses the knowledge needed to properly steward the affairs of a diverse economy. I read the masterful essay, The Use of Knowledge in Society, by Friedrich Hayek while in high school. It was the beginning of a lifetime journey for me through Hayekian thought, particularly around Hayek’s thesis of the “fatal conceit” of central planners.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Bite-sized Nuggets Jan 26, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3OkKhL0

I did something fun today … I just picked random topics from various things on my mind, in my daily reading, or across my research feed – sort of stream of consciousness – and wrote about them. Therefore, I suspect there will be a little something for everyone today. Hopefully, each portion is “bite-sized” enough to make it all succinct and readable, and I certainly appreciate any feedback you have to offer. In fact, I am considering something like this in the daily DC Today (where I would write my own piece every day on whatever topic I am so inspired by that day, and let Brian run with the daily data recap). It's all a work in progress and your comments are welcome.

And in the meantime, let's jump into the Dividend Cafe - bite-sized variety and all ...

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, January 25, 2024 Jan 25, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48LulK1

An overall positive trading day without a lot of volatility behind what was a pretty decent batch of economic data. The Dow was up well over 200 points, and the S&P 500 notched a sixth day of gains. We had the first read on Q4 GDP come in significantly higher than expected at 3.3%, with the consumer powering almost two percent of it. Both durable goods orders and jobless claims came in just enough below expectations that bonds also rallied, with the 10 YR down six basis points.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, January 24, 2024 Jan 24, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48MsRiD

We experienced positive market sentiment throughout the morning until approximately 10:30 AM, driven by better-than-expected PMI data in both services and manufacturing. It’s noteworthy that typically, indications of economic expansion don’t lead to a decline in stocks. However, despite four days of gains on the Dow, the news of improving economic data led to a loss of some early morning momentum. This occurred on a day of relatively uneventful trading as interest rates edged slightly higher.

One key metric closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, The Taylor Rule, suggests that the Fed Funds Rate should currently be approximately 1% lower at 4.5%. Looking ahead, futures indicate a balanced probability for a rate cut in March. However, there is a significant amount of economic data expected between now and then that could influence this outlook. As previously mentioned, it wouldn’t be surprising if there were more discussions in March about the conclusion of Quantitative Tightening (QT), potentially easing financial conditions and essentially resembling a rate cut.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, January 23, 2024 Jan 23, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47R5iUm

A short and sweet market recap today as earnings season launches further.

Small cap seems to have bounced well since its rough patch to start the year. Bitcoin has dropped -20% since its peak in the midst of ETF approval.

I was on set at Fox this morning with the chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, Jason Smith. The 40-3 vote on this tax bill was shocking to me, and it sure seems to foreshadow a comeback of some of the most stimulative parts of the Trump tax bill that previously went away.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, January 22, 2024 Jan 22, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42bAxYY

Earnings seasons gets a lot more intense this week (and next). All the info around the horn on the normal categories is here in today’s DC Today.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Now that is a really good question! Jan 19, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3O8BRpX

I love these “question and answer” editions of the Dividend Cafe. I should say that 100% of the questions that appear are always completely real, from actual readers, reflecting different things on your mind across a variety of topics related to markets and the economy. Today, we get to talk about what it means for markets to “price things in,” about gold, about government debt, about dividend growth, and so much more. It is digestible, succinct, easy, comprehensible, and it is about as much fun as one can have in weekend reading.

Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, January 18, 2024 Jan 18, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3vIRb6n

A positive morning of trading in markets gave way to losses mid-day, only to gain it all back and then some as we headed towards the close, ending up 200 points. Interestingly, the correlation between rates and stocks today actually moved together with both rising, where the opposite has been the case much of this year. 10’s are moving further into four handle territory up to 4.14% as rates crept back up today with a stronger jobless claim number. We are at about a 54% chance on futures for a March rate cut at this point.

We are still early in earnings season, but it has been notable that while 92% of companies reported thus far have exceeded expectations, 58% of them have actually traded lower on the news. A combination of some exuberance over lower rates this year coming out of markets and just some general consolidation after the year-end run-up seems to be at play. I find this consolidation healthy, and with an advance decline ratio only back to -3:1, I doubt we have seen the last of it. More in the link below.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, January 17, 2024 Jan 17, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47HzpgS

Markets have stayed in what is pretty much a buyer’s strike this month, as no violent sell-off has been forthcoming, but down days have piled up in advance of the heart of earnings season and with several Fed governors trying to modestly re-frame expectations. Odds of a March rate hike have come down a bit but still remain the most likely view in futures markets. This noise was, if you recall, a highly predictable and overrated theme as discussed in our Year Ahead piece for 2024.

China’s economy grew +5.2% annualized in Q4 vs. +5.3% expected. The jobless rate sits around +5.1%. Most importantly, they indicated their third consecutive quarter of consumer price deflation (longest streak in 25 years). Did I mention this, too, was a huge theme in our Year Ahead piece for 2024?

I was intrigued to see this morning that about 60% of BB and B+ rated high yield bonds are now trading above par value (it was around 20% just six months ago). That is an extraordinary rally in credit that is clearly a by-product of improved financial conditions (i.e. expectations for greater liquidity and easier access to and cost of capital).

Retail sales for December exceeded expectations (shocked!) as core sales jumped +0.8% month-over-month. Online sales closed the year up +7% from the year prior, and across food/beverage/clothing there was meaningful increase on the month and year, even above what had been forecast.

I expect the biggest public policy issue over the next thirty days to be a Ukraine deal tied to U.S. border security and likely tied to Israel support funds as well. The challenges to getting this done are immense.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, January 16, 2024 Jan 16, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3vEgA0Y

Ask David “What is your view about investing in the Indian economy since it appears to have the potential for considerable growth and is not hampered by the regulations of the CCP?” ~ Al

On one hand, India is the highest country allocation in our emerging markets strategy. On the other hand, that is not really “investing in the Indian economy” as much as it is investing in “companies that happen to be based in India.” The domestic market strength is a huge factor, but it is really more of a bottom-up than top-down decision. We are not looking for good countries but rather good companies.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Cutting through the Noise to the Sobering Truth Jan 12, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48Sg4um

Before I get into this week’s wild fun Dividend Cafe on the subject of government debt, I want to make sure I do one final push around the Year Ahead, Year Behind White Paper that we published last Monday. Because of its depth and length, I imagine some of you printed the chart-filled PDF and plan to digest it this weekend. So don’t worry – if today’s Dividend Cafe is coming on top of your white paper reading, I assure you the data I cover this week about our fiscal position in America will not be going stale in the days ahead!

But now we re-dive into the standard Friday routine of our weekly Dividend Cafe. And this week’s is a very cheery one, if you are cheered up by massive government spending and debt (hey, “we’re all Keynesians now,” right?). A fundamental component of our macroeconomic view going out ten years and longer is a belief in an internal tension in the American economy – that is, the extraordinary engine of growth and innovation that the greatest Western democracy the world has ever seen is and has been for 250 years, VERSUS the significant headwinds for growth created by excessive government indebtedness. The story is more nuanced than that, and I will get into those nuances and more in this week’s Dividend Cafe.

Don’t think of this week’s Dividend Cafe as a position paper on how to solve for the national debt. It is not a policy paper, but rather a reaffirmation presentation of the state of affairs. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, January 11, 2024 Jan 11, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NYiJuG

Volatility came down and markets were flat as a pancake as we got inflation numbers that were in line with Core CPI and then just barely above on Headline by a tenth for the month. Rates moved higher initially but came off during the day with 10’s down six basis points and the curve steepening a little. I have more on CPI below and in the podcast, but markets feeling better or worse over a tenth different than expected on CPI each month is one thing but the trend is so blatantly going in the right direction with annualized CPI over the past three months now below the feds 2% target at 1.77%, I just don’t think it’s material at this point. Fed futures by the way agree and were unchanged on the day still at a 65% chance for a March rate cut.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, January 10, 2024 Jan 10, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aN8tiB

An up day for markets across the board.

The drama on the SEC/bitcoin ETF deal moved today. Yesterday it was that they had approved a bitcoin ETF as expected, and bitcoin prices fell. But then they announced that, no, they had not approved it (yet), and the announcement was from a “hack.” Uh-huh. Then the chairman of the SEC took to Twitter to announce that people investing in crypto should “be cautious” due to “serious risks involved.” And today they approved the ETF exactly as had been reported yesterday.

I was on Varney this morning talking wealth tax, Wall Street’s view of government spending, and dividend thoughts.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, January 9, 2024 Jan 10, 2024

Today's Post -https://bahnsen.co/4aPFc6P

Yesterday we released our annual white paper recapping all that was the year behind and all of our perspective and themes for the year ahead. We welcome you to send it far and wide, distributing it anywhere you’d wish. It is an important part of our annual process and I am proud of this year’s product, and grateful to all in my production and design teams who helped make it happen.

Because we devoted Monday to this special Dividend Cafe white paper I have run today’s Tuesday edition as if it were Monday, except, you know, with Tuesday market info (I’m not that dumb as to use yesterday’s market data).

Off we go …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Year Ahead, Year Behind - Special 2024 White Paper Jan 08, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/41UHaPl

Over the numerous years dedicated to this annual project, it has been a rewarding journey and continues to be one of my most cherished endeavors. I derive great satisfaction from the research, narrative crafting, and the sense of responsibility it instills. I sincerely hope you find value in this year's retrospective and prospective white paper. Brace yourself for an exciting year ahead!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, January 4, 2024 Jan 04, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Oe52YT

Generally positive markets this morning lost momentum throughout the trading day with the Dow closing completely flat and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down a pinch. Yields were up on the day, with the 10-year back to just under 4%, and Fed futures starting to show a little less conviction on a rate cut in March (albeit still at a 64% chance). We had some better-than-expected payroll numbers today, and with slightly lower new Job openings yesterday are slowly but surely seeing a supply imbalance normalization in employment. We have roughly 162MM people currently employed in this country, with another 8.8MM new job openings posted, so call about 171MM on the demand side. The current US labor force is roughly 168MM, so while not perfectly matched (still more demand), it is getting there and what the Fed wants to see.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, January 3, 2024 Jan 03, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3RMxbqz

A second down day in the new year, and of course two days isn’t a trend but frankly after nine consecutive positive weeks in markets, some consolidation and back filling is healthy and welcome. I do hope you all are feeling as refreshed and recharged after your Holiday time with family and friends as I am, and while there was less Christmas snow in Utah then I would have liked, there is plenty of fresh market data for us to go through today.

While 2023 saw an outperformance of growth over value, as it essentially just recouped what it lost the year prior, its interesting to note the recent shift the other way. From the lows of late October, the SP500 rallied 17%, but the equal weighted index outperformed large cap tech by a shocking 5% with a rotation to value. As David mentioned this morning on CNBC, starting point valuations can be critical for investor outcomes. With an average estimate for earnings in 2024 at $244 a share, the SP500 trades at 20X earnings. Equal weighted, you get something closer to 16X and some of this recent rotation appears cognizant of those other sectors offering better relative value. Could this continue? Well, while markets were meaningfully higher last year, the largest flows still went to money market funds at +$1.34T, which now hold a stunning $5.87T of cash (aka dry powder).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, January 2, 2024 Jan 02, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NNxO27

This is a tough DC Today to write because I have to resist every temptation to start doing my “year behind” review or “year ahead” projections now. I am deep into the writing and preparation of that annual endeavor and I am really hopeful that the final product will be informative and profitable for all of you. In the meantime I am back from my Christmas week away with my family and excited that 2024 is here. This annual “white paper” I am in seclusion working on will be out this MONDAY, the 8th, as a special release Dividend Cafe. As I read, research, and write over the next three days in between sessions of hanging upside down in my closet, Brian Szytel will take on the Wednesday and Thursday DC Today task.

2024 started off with more of a 2022 vibe than a 2023 one as the Nasdaq dropped -1.63% and the Dow rose a tad.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, December 21, 2023 Dec 21, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/41AnBfi

Markets rallied today after their sell-off yesterday, moving up +322 points on the Dow. Some of yesterday’s heightened downside does appear to be related to zero-day option expirations, something so silly, stupid, and complex that I will spare you all the details.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dividend Growth in this Exact Moment Dec 22, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/41vu6Qo

It is the end of 2023 and we are entering the Christmas weekend. I am off to a land far away with my family and am looking forward to spending the holidays in the snow. The calendar year for markets still has a week to go (with the exception of Christmas Day on Monday), and by this time next week we will have brought 2023 to a close. I will avoid saying anything else due to the never-ending superstition that us money managers live with regarding our ability to make things worse by daring to say something prematurely. Let’s put it this way … I went to the Duke game at Madison Square Garden with my son on Wednesday night and Duke (my college basketball love since 1990) was up by 11 points with eight seconds to go. My 13-year old son was celebrating the win and I scolded him – “it’s not over, son!” You know – that famous 11-point play – what can I say. Better safe than sorry.

Anyways, I thought it appropriate as we approach the end of the year to reaffirm some of the truly evergreen realities of dividend growth investing. Not only am I committed to dedicating one Dividend Cafe per quarter to this subject (minimally) but I also believe this final 2023 edition ought to address some really important realities in the present state of markets and our investing philosophy brought to life. It is incomprehensibly fun for me to write on this subject. This subject is embedded in my being.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, December 20, 2023 Dec 20, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47gk0nS

A quiet day of trading as markets head towards the Christmas holiday on Monday and things slow down.

The US is one of many countries where inflation readings and projections are being reduced. The UK had a much lower-than-expected November inflation reading yesterday at 3.9% y/y versus a 4.3% expected and down from 4.6% the month prior. Not surprisingly, Gilt yields moved dramatically lower, and futures were priced in 150 bps of BOE rate cuts next year.

PPI data in Germany today was also below expectations. While the ECB noted it would maintain rates where they were last week, I expect that narrative to change next year if we continue to see numbers like this, especially once the US starts cutting. Global central bank policy, as does trade and currencies, tends to be tethered—this and more in today's video podcast.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, December 19, 2023 Dec 19, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47VBffb

Today saw risk assets rally yet again with the Dow closing at another all-time high.

It is interesting to see health care as the sector holding the defensives and lower beta names down. Consumer Staples and Real Estate have broken out a bit and Utilities have at least awakened, but Health Care has been the laggard.

The Bank of Japan extended its policy of negative interest rates (it has been seven years now, for those counting), though most believe they will hike the policy rate up to 0% in 2024. The Yen remains quite weak against the dollar.

Oil is down $20 from where it was in September (note, that was before the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7). The VIX is at $12.50, pretty close to the lowest it has been in five years, Credit spreads have tightened by 60 basis points just in the investment grade side, with high yield spreads tightening a full percentage point (and that is basically since Halloween). It would be hard to make up a series of data points that reflect a more favorable sentiment for risk assets than this.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, December 18, 2023 Dec 18, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NuO33W

When one buys stock in the secondary market they are buying from Mr. Jones and Mrs. Smith, and the money is not getting to the company – that is correct. But there is a very important thing being missed when one concludes that therefore no money is being productively deployed. Namely, the existence of a secondary market is why a public market can raise money to begin with for primary productive purposes. When investors buy equity in a company that does go to the company for growth capital, productive use, etc., they do so with the knowledge, intent, and awareness that the money is going into a liquid, secondary market. That reality impacts the attraction of capital and it impacts the valuation of capital. Take away the ability for Mr. Smith to sell to Mrs. Jones, and you take away the marketplace for BIG INVESTOR to invest directly in BIG COMPANY.

Supplementally, many times companies are doing secondary offerings in the public market where money is coming straight to the company. And finally, dividends are paid to investors who often do directly productive things with them. Where do these dividends come from? The productive profit-making activities of the underling company. Rinse and repeat.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Housing Isn't an Asset Class Dec 15, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TrUXux

I did a Dividend Cafe exactly six months ago about housing, focusing then on the duel economic and cultural reality of what was going on in the housing market. I think another six months gone by is a pretty good amount of time to now re-address this vital subject in American life. Housing is, for some, a crucial part of their economic story. Even for those smart enough not to think of their house as a “retirement asset” it is still a crucial economic consideration. Almost everyone I have ever met needs a place to live, and the ones I met who did not had very odd theories on the JFK assassination. Very few people own an asset with as much leverage attached to it as their home (assuming one puts 20% down they are 4-to-1 levered on the purchase; imagine buying $1 million of stock and only paying $200,000 for it). Housing costs (monthly) from rent or mortgage to property taxes and maintenance and insurance are the highest percentage of the monthly outflow of nearly every single family in America (even many who do not have a mortgage).

Beyond the economic reality of housing, from the silly (it is an “investment”) to the practical (it cost money to live somewhere), there is a deeply personal reality to housing, including for yours truly. People make memories in houses, they associate periods of their life with where they live, and they form families and social connectivity around houses. And even with all the suburban model has done in a postmodern culture to undermine community, many people’s “houses” are also part of their “neighborhoods” – a Tocquevillian concept we’d be wise to re-affirm. This subject matters.

So today in the Dividend Cafe I want to “check in” on the subject.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, December 14, 2023 Dec 14, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aigyM6

Well, and there you have it – coming out of a global pandemic where the world shut down and reopened and supply chain disruption and pent-up demand caused 9% inflation, the Fed raised rates 525bps in one year, inflation fell back down without rising unemployment, the economy still grew, and as of yesterday, the Dow closed at an all-time high. I really don’t think, in all humility, there was anyone out there (including yours truly) that would have predicted all that. Now, there is still more time to go before I think you can officially fly the soft landing flags, but we are getting close after yesterday’s Fed meeting and statements.

Adding to that narrative, we had some encouraging retail sales and jobless claims data today that had markets higher again. Also, the good ole three handle 10yr is back! We closed below 4% today down another 11 bps at 3.91% on 10’s for the day. Does all this sound too good to be true? I assure you there are still plenty of things in the world to worry about, but my sense at this point, with a dearth of large economic data coming out before the year-end, is that we will head into the holidays feeling a little more merrier than we did last year. =)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, December 13, 2023 Dec 13, 2023

Today's Post -https://bahnsen.co/46RNNmw

This may have been the least anticipated Fed Day in nearly two years, with the futures market serving up a 100% chance of no rate change ever since the last Fed meeting. That said, the Fed chair talking after a rate announcement always has the possibility of moving markets. Today, he moved markets. That he didn’t even remotely push back against market expectations for rate cuts next year was a surprise, but the dot plot actually showing three rate cuts in 2024 was a huge surprise. Now, I have been saying it for months, and fed futures have been forecasting it, so maybe this market response seems overdone – but for Jay Powell to just say it? Today was like reading a future history book.

I think it is important to note that the Fed Funds Futures are currently pricing in a 100% chance of a 100 basis point reduction (1%) in the Fed Funds Rate by this time next year. There is a 24% chance of it being down 1.25%, a 37% chance of it being down 1.50%, and a 26% chance of it being down 1.75% – all by next year. The most “hawkish” expectation is a 100 basis point cut.

All stock market indexes were up the SAME. And I am pretty much sure this was the biggest bond rally of my career in a single day, as the 2-year yield dropped THIRTY BASIS POINTS and the 10-year dropped EIGHTEEN BASIS POINTS. Ay yi yi.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, December 12, 2023 Dec 12, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Nr4A93

A consistently positive trading day on this inflation-day-Tuesday. Both core and headline CPI came out largely in line with expectations and markets were constructive with stocks modestly higher and built on gains into the close and rates down just a few basis points. These numbers are coming out right in time for the December FOMC meeting to end tomorrow with a rate decision (which is at a 100% chance for a continued pause), Fed statement update and Powell presser following.

Continued broadening out in markets with more non mega cap technology names participating. Yesterday by the way, was the first time in over 10 years we had markets up broadly (including a positive Nasdaq) with all seven of the largest technology names (aka Magnificent Seven) all closing lower. Today we had more participation those names, but worth noting the subtle shift in leadership, particularly with Industrials.

A positive dynamic we have spoken about for years but particularly post the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues to play out in energy markets. For the month of November, 68% of all US LNG exports were sent to Europe which has now over taken Asia as the number one destination for US LNG exports. Just as tensions between US/China has begun to permanently shift supply chain manufacturing destinations globally, the EU shifting its reliance on Russia for its energy and heating needs isn’t likely to be temporary and is quite positive for the US energy dynamic.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, December 11, 2023 Dec 11, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/41lZfWf

Greetings from 29 degree Grand Rapids, Michigan where I have had a day of meetings and recordings and give two different speeches in two different Michigan cities tomorrow. I will be back in the much warmer climate of New York City on Wednesday. In the meantime, the special Monday DC Today awaits you …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Buffet of Information Dec 08, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3t62eFN

I really do like the SOP for Dividend Cafe (that’s “standard operating procedure” for those of you who have time to say full words instead of acronyms that always require explanation anyways, hence adding triple the time to what could have just been said in long form to begin with). What I mean here is that I have for several years now selected a singular topic for each week’s Dividend Cafe and written a 2,000-3,000 word piece on that topic. There have been a few exceptions where we did a wide array of “Q&A” as our focus, and we will continue doing that once a quarter or so when we get an excessive build-up of “Ask Davids” that the DC Today cannot bear. But for the most part, the Dividend Cafe is, I think, better as a deeper dive week by week into a given topic on my mind and heart. I keep it investment and economy focused, of course, because if I went anywhere my mind and heart went, I would end up doing some Dividend Cafes about my favorite steakhouses in New York City, what is wrong with today’s Republican Party, or what in the world my daughter’s vernacular in our family group text chat means. But Dividend Cafe will stay in its lane, I promise. Focus, David, focus.

Anyways, today I am doing the buffet thing, but I didn’t write it throughout the week – I wrote it all at once. I simply had three “mini” topics I wanted to address instead of one “mega” topic. I hope it is cohesive and interesting, but if you hate it, at least you know next week, we will go back to the single-topic norm of the Dividend Cafe – our SOP.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, December 7, 2023 Dec 07, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4abzegh

The market opened up a handful of points this morning and slowly built on gains for most of the day. After a big move lower across the curve in yields this week we took a bit of a breather today with a flat 10YR up two basis points at 4.14%. Stay tuned for a three handle on 10’s.

We are starting to see this market rally broaden out with the equal weight version of the SP500 breaking away from the market cap weighted index. This is showing the average stock starting to participate more in this rally outside of technology names, which I find constructive. Both large cap and regional banks by the way are back to where they were pre SVB failure earlier in the year. Part as a normalization of stress in the financials and part for a 2024 line up that could favor the banks if we get better net interest margins as the yield curve potentially normalizes with the short end moving down. This is something we have seen before; late cycle rally in financials as the Fed pauses and ultimately cuts the following year (95’/96′ comes to mind).

Monthly financial obligations for consumers like auto payments and home payments, as a percentage of household cash, are on the rise and now at 16%. Interesting however that even with such a rise in rates these are still actually below pre-pandemic levels which was closer to 18%. Higher rates just haven’t bit as hard as years past with such a prolonged low rate refinancing period the years preceding it.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, December 6, 2023 Dec 06, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/486oKwS

If you’re surprised by how much expectations have turned down for U.S. interest rates and Fed policy in 2024, you should see what those crazy cats in Europe have going. Markets are now fully pricing in SIX rate cuts next year – 1.5% reduction in their lending rate.

Bank CEOs testified before the Senate finance committee today, making the case that the planned increase in capital requirements would be detrimental. They specifically pointed to where the cost of such increased capital would come from – customers. A not-unexpected talk.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (Bakersfield, CA) announced his resignation from Congress today. I hereby predict he will make more money in 2024 than he did in 2023.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, December 5, 2023 Dec 05, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4a8TMWG

As we get ready for a busy week of jobs data a few things stick out:

(1) The weekly jobless claims remain very low which seems to indicate a continued healthy employment market

(2) The “quits” rate (people voluntarily leaving their job) has been very high, and even as it has come down from early 2022 highs, it remains very elevated historically

(3) The number of job openings remains very high (though it fell to 8.7 million this month, still 1.5-2 million higher than pre-COVID average, but well off 2021 highs)

(4) The average work week has steadily declined on the margin (from 35 hours, which was above the 15-year average, to 34.25 hours, which is below the average).

(5) Several data points have softened in recent months, but not softened to what can be called “weak” conditions – just “less strong” than had been the case previously

A few other market tidbits and things that caught my eye today …

It is interesting to me that small cap value has outperformed growth since the turn in the middle of the year, but large cap growth has modestly outperformed large cap value. The two are normally correlated.

Some of the “big seven” names that have driven a lot of the market this year have not moved at all in six months (well, they have moved up and down, but I mean they currently sit flat from where they were this summer). The broader market has begun playing a little catch-up.

2024 earnings expectations are now up to $246/share in the S&P 500. We are likely going to end at $221 for 2023 so this would mean earnings growth of +11.3% in 2024, rather amazing if it happened. Of course, at that earnings level, the S&P is still trading at an 18.6x multiple (forward projected), and is trading currently at 20.7x.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, December 4, 2023 Dec 04, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3uFMLMZ

Ask David

“If you are an investor in a passive index fund, exactly what happens to your equity when that fund/index removes a poor performer, and replaces it with a stock that has recently performed much better? While I suspect that your equity may stay the same upon replacement, it seems intuitively like an example of buying high while selling low. Is there any documented study of index fund performance over time due to the survival bias? Do you have any thoughts on the topic?” ~ Dom

I think I understand what you are saying but actually in this case the survival bias of the index methodology helps its performance over time, not hurts. What you are suggesting makes sense prima facie – that they are adding companies at high prices and removing others at low prices – but the fact of the matter is that the companies removed from the index is very rare, and almost always only happens after the company is broken. A significant amount of companies that have been removed from market indices over the years no longer exist at all, meaning that path from “a low price” to “zero” was never experienced by the index investor. Of course, there are cases when a company is removed from an index and subsequently rallies from a low valuation, but that is much less frequent than the opposite. And all of it is very rare and inconsequential …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Artificial Intelligence and The Lessons of DotCom Dec 01, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3GnL8pE

Rarely have I hyped up a Dividend Cafe so much and set you all up for such disappointment. The topic I write about today is one that has been on my mind and in my research orbit for a long time, and on a couple occasions I actually teased up that it was coming, only to pull the plug and defer publication to a later date. Well, that later date is today.

We know the huge hype around Artificial Intelligence in 2023 – not merely in stock prices, but throughout society. On a daily basis we hear of some reference to how AI may change education or business or politics or, my favorite, farming. And as is always the case, this “hype” has a foundation to it – there is a profoundly interesting evolution in technology playing out that will change the way a lot of things are done. It will involve policy adaptations, cultural pushback, misallocations, great advancements, and, yes, certain negatives. All of these things are par for the course in a world that grows – that is, a world that was created to see human beings innovate around the raw materials they were given. Someone should write a book! But fundamentally, artificial intelligence is a big deal, even if the early years of its introduction will be filled with misunderstanding and wrongly directed reactions.

But people do not read Dividend Cafe for my assessment on the technological or even cultural context of new innovations. Rather, our job here is to assess a whole host of subjects for their economic and market impact – particularly for investors (and to be more particular than that, for our investors, that is, clients of our firm – or those of you who will be clients of our firm). The Artificial Intelligence story is an investor story, too, and that requires a sober reflection on a lot of things. Today’s Dividend Cafe is that sober reflection.

Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, November 30, 2023 Nov 30, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4115jTU

A BIG divergence today between the more value oriented DOW which jumped 520 points today, and the more technology heavy Nasdaq down .23% as interest rates broke the trend and rose today. Coincidently, I wrote yesterday about the sensitivity in the part to the market that has had the most multiple expansion tethered to falling rates as having potential for disappointment. Both PCE inflation data coming out in-line with expectations and a stronger growth print in the Chicago PMI’s moved rates up today as much as yesterdays decline in continued bond market volatility.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, November 29, 2023 Nov 29, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3N5Ec4C

A mixed but ultimately flat day of trading in stocks following another decent move up in bonds as the 10 Yr came down another 8bps to 4.26%. Hard to believe we were north of 5% just last month. I was actually expecting yields on 10’s to pick back up after a better than expected upward revision to Q3 GDP mid morning, but this bond market is dead set on lower rates in 2024. All eyes will be on the inflation read tomorrow with PCE to see if that changes the narrative.

If the seven largest US technology companies were its own sector it would make up 18.2% of the market cap of the MSCI World Index and account for only 10% of the earnings. In comparison, the entire Financials sector in the MSCI World index equates to three precent less at 15.1% by market cap, but makes up over twice the earnings at 21.9%. Valuations may be a poor timing tool short term, but they do matter longer term and the multiple expansion in tech we have just seen can be easily disappointed if lower rates don’t keep pace next year.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, November 28, 2023 Nov 28, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Gl2T9d

The market is up over 10% in just twenty trading days, a 99th percentile move if there ever was one. The rally has brought along lower-quality equities and higher-quality ones, and financials, in particular, are surprisingly strong. Defensives are not as strong (consumer staples, utilities) as more cyclical or high beta sectors, but they are hanging in there.

The dollar has dropped, and the Yen has rallied in the last few weeks, causing many currency traders to say, “Wait, it wasn’t supposed to do that?”

Markets were pretty boring again today (though to the upside), and bond yields continued their decline.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, November 27, 2023 Nov 27, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3sYDwqz

Futures opened last night down -40 points or so, worsened a bit throughout the evening, and this morning pointed again to a down -40 point open pre-market. The market opened pretty flat this morning and just stayed in a tight range to the downside throughout the day. The Dow closed down -57 points (-0.16%) with the S&P 500 down -0.20% and the Nasdaq down -0.07%.

*CNBC, DJIA, Nov. 27, 2023

As a contrarian, I do not like seeing the put/call ratio and bull/bear sentiment be so tilted towards complacency. Even the VIX at $12.69 is pretty surreal. The ten-year bond yield closed today at 4.39%, down almost -10 basis points on the day as the November bond rally continues Top-performing sector for the day: Real Estate (+0.38%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Health Care (-0.64%)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thanksgiving Edition 2023 Nov 22, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3SR97oG

On this special Wednesday Dividend Cafe, just one day before Thanksgiving and sixty years to the day after John F. Kennedy was assassinated and C.S. Lewis passed into glory, it is my sincere pleasure to bring you the annual Thanksgiving Day edition of the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, November 20, 2023 Nov 20, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47JhGpJ

Futures markets in the fed funds rate now show a 0% chance of any future rate hikes in 2023 or 2024, but then show mixed results around when rate cuts may begin (a 35% chance in March, a 65% chance by early May, an 88% chance by June). Those numbers will all change, but it is where the debate lies entering 2024. The Fed balance sheet sits at $7.8 trillion right now, down $1.2 trillion from its high, but still 88% above pre-COVID levels.

Will the Fed’s inevitable cutting of rates be a good thing for markets? I wonder what you think? Let me put it this way … is it even possible to answer that question without any further information? Hint: It is not. Two things have to be known to better answer that question. (1) Was the cut a surprise or well-telegraphed, and (b) What. Was. The. Reason. For. The. Cut. Beware of anyone assuming rate cuts are good without a discussion of that second question.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Tale of Two Decades Nov 17, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3sAWzr1

For the second time in the last couple of months, I am going to call an audible and not publish a Dividend Cafe on the artificial intelligence moment and its relevance for investors, despite having announced I was doing so the prior week. I have actually been assembling and digesting research on this topic for many months and am quite excited for the final product to appear in Dividend Cafe. But it is too important of a topic and an issue I have worked on now too much to publish prematurely. I was in New York City the first two days of this week, Dallas the next two days, and am in California now. Between a massive amount of meetings, events, portfolio activity, flights, and all the things, I was engulfed in a different topic this week instead of finishing my other piece.

This week’s topic is pretty darn important, though. In fact, I believe it serves as the macro story of our moment. It brings in some very important history and how to think about the past in the context of the future (not exactly an old or stale topic for those who remember last Friday), but it also allows us to understand what is going on right now in a broader and more extended sense. I think where interest rates go over the next ten years matters (also a fresh topic on our minds). Still, one could argue that everything going on right now has to do with the cycle we are in, had previously been in, and the question around where we ultimately go.

So let’s hang tight on artificial intelligence and investing a little longer because this week, we have to cover a tale of two decades. It will take you ten minutes to really appreciate ten years. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, November 16, 2023 Nov 16, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40JB5EW

It was a pretty quiet day today, although we were down almost 170 points mid-day following some slower economic numbers to then rally back to just about flat on the day in stocks. Honestly, with the significant move up this week, just seeing markets just hang in and constructively consolidate and stay at these levels (both in stocks and bonds) is a good thing and bodes well.

This week, we had lower-than-expected inflation numbers in both CPI and PPI, some weak retail sales, the largest US retailer citing disinflationary pressure, and today, we got a jobless claims number that was higher than expected. Mix all of this in a bowl, bake, and no matter how you slice it, you’ll get an unquestionably cooling economic pie. See what I did there as we head into Thanksgiving week. =)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, November 15, 2023 Nov 15, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46gNK3n

With over 90% of companies now having reported Q3 earnings, we stand at a 6.3% growth rate and well above Octobers estimate of just 1.6%. Just as I mentioned on CNBC World Monday night, profit growth is exceeding revenue growth as companies with pricing power that raised prices the past year due to inflation are showing margin expansion as some of those input prices ease. Also, for all you wondering, it really was just CPI and not my global television debut that fueled the market rally the following day.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, November 14, 2023 Nov 14, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47wGQI7

Markets rallied huge today as bonds rallied in the aftermath of the CPI report.

Interest rates went into total free fall (the 10-year is down a stunning -18 basis points, and the entire 2/10 curve is down 18-21bps in what may be the biggest bond rally of the year and possibly several years) as the CPI number came in at, wait for it, +0% month-over-month (headline inflation). The core number (excluding food and energy) was +0.2% on the month versus +0.3% consensus expectations. Year-over-year, the core CPI was +3.2% versus +3.3% ex-expected.

But there’s more. Rent growth is being measured as +6.8% on the year and rent of primary residence +7.2%. Both are down +1% from recent highs but a minimum of 4% too high versus real-life “current market” metrics. That means assuming 3% shelter inflation (I am being very generous) at a 34% weighting, the 1.35% attribution coming off CPI brings headline inflation to 1.85% and core inflation to 2.65%. So, yeah, the Fed is about to take the credit. And the right teed it up for them. Ay yi yi.

Money supply (as measured by ODL – Other Deposit Liabilities– the best measure of available money in the system for a lot of reasons) has declined now for three straight years. We know it flew higher post-COVID. We know about lags and monetary aggregates and all that jazz. All excess liquidity created out of COVID has been evaporated from the system. And yet, over $1 trillion of debt next year will mature and be re-borrowed at 3-4% higher in cost (as things stand now). And for those who choose not to roll over debt (many companies, some individuals, zero governments), cash reserves will be used (that, my friends, is what you will call lower velocity).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, November 13, 2023 Nov 13, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47aKXKm

There are some financial writers who I believe are professional doomsdayers. There are some who are more nuanced. And, yes, there are others who I think are hard to pin down. I suppose it is most fair to treat all people individually, with unique circumstances and particulars around their approach and worldview. For example, I think some are SINCERE but almost always WRONG (and have a business model that depends on scaring people, even if they really believe it). Some professional doomsdayers are, in my opinion, rank charlatans and grifters – though I’d rather not give names here. Hopefully you get the idea …

As for how to prepare for various “bad things,” well, that’s pretty much what I write about every week in the Dividend Cafe. In the first such issue this month I wrote the following, and it would apply to the wide array of possible scenarios we face:

“Our Operation Magnify is forever committed to active, proactive, intelligible allocation of capital across Dividend Growth companies, in the Boring Bond space needed to preserve capital, in Credit assets where there is opportunity and compensation for risk taken, in areas of both Growth and Income Enhancement, and of course in Alternatives where we can seek to lower the volatility profile of a portfolio and diversify sources of risk and reward.

Doing that in an era of high rate volatility, of high ambiguity about monetary policy, and a period where far too many eyes are only on the Fed requires a contrarian bend, a deep commitment to real enterprise (bottom-up company realities that transcend monthly price volatility), and a faithful commitment to the principles that made Magnify what it is.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This Time It's Also Not Different Nov 10, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3u3NcAi

Sir John Templeton could have never known what staying power his famous edict would have when he wrote in 1933, “The investor who says, ‘This time is different,’ when in fact it’s virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing.” He wasn’t wrong, and the vast majority of the time that famous quote is used (mostly via paraphrase), it captures a vital truism – that people assuming certain things about the past are no longer true and investing accordingly generally get their faces ripped off.

Today, we unpack what issues are the same, what may be different, and what that all means for an investor in 2023. Lots of things stay the same in this world because the creator of the world is the same yesterday, today, and forever. The law of gravity is still working. Men and women are still different. And UCLA is still a mediocre football program (hey, now!). But some things do change because that same creator made the world to be dynamic and gave the human race agency in its stewardship. And we know human beings can be temperamental.

So jump on into the Dividend Cafe, and let’s discuss the permanence in change of being an investor (extra credit to any who remember the second greatest band of my youth, The Alarm).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, November 9, 2023 Nov 09, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40yBPwn

We started off todays session in another quiet day, until about 1PM ET when we had an abysmal 30-year treasury auction on $24B of notes that moved rates higher across the curve that gave us our first down day in November for the SP500. With an increased supply in new issuance to fund a $2T budget deficit and a dearth of large buyers like our own Federal Reserve and other large Sovereigns it took higher rates to get this auction to close with the lowest bid to cover ratio in weeks. 2’s are back over 5% and 10’s were up 11 bps.

Oil was flat on the day but down 7% this week back to pre-war levels, and while energy stocks have given up some gains as well keep in mind that the sector in large remains in an uptrend with 94% of the energy name complex has a 50 day moving average above its 200 day. I am far more focused on fundamentals like the increase in CAPEX in our names recently than technicals like this, but note worthy of its relative strength amongst other sectors nonetheless.

Powell’s comments today at the IMF cited that Fed officials were ‘not confident’ they were restrictive enough with rates to bring inflation back to 2%, which added to todays give back in stocks. So, the market tea leaves yesterday read his statement as dovish and today hawkish, and so there you go. I get into why this day-to-day Fed obsession shouldn’t matter to investors, and more in todays video podcast link below.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, November 8, 2023 Nov 08, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3My1KhW

Futures were as quiet as could be last night, and markets followed suit in a benign trading range that came off the lows mid day to close slightly higher and extend our November rally at least on the SP500. To be fair, we did come into November with only 17% of the SP500 having a positive three month return so were set up well for a rally and while the market did close higher yesterday the advance decline ratio on the NYSE was a dismal -1.6 to 1, so we are losing some steam here.

The top two weightings of the SP500 (one makes Windows and the other the iPhone), now make up 14.6% of the index and each have larger market caps than the entirety the UK FTSE 100, the French CAC and German DAX indices. To say the market remains top heavy in big tech is an understatement.

US and Chinese economic dependency on one another (one to make widgets and one to buy them), has continued to decline. The US now imports more from Mexico than from China for the first time since 2003, and China is recycling less of those dollars back into US Treasuries as a result. Both of these tie into why private foreign investors make up a larger piece of Treasury buying and why, in addition to slowing Chinese economic fundamentals, the Yuan has devalued against the dollar this year. All this and more in todays video podcast.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, November 7, 2023 Nov 07, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46Z4Xj5

This is the longest winning streak (number of up days) for the S&P 500 in two years. One of the least encouraging things? The delta between cap-weighted and equal-weighted results … Top-heavy doesn’t end well. But nevertheless, markets are enjoying a very strong rally over the last week and a half.

Oil was hit hard today (down over -4%). Some traders think things will settle in the Middle East.

It appears S&P earnings growth year-over-year for this earnings season is going to top +5.7%, with revenue growth of +1.2%. Margin expansion has been something to behold and has a lot to do with market resilience in this challenging rate period.

Office behemoth WeWork, officially declared bankruptcy. Shiny objects are painful to watch implode. The ramifications to commercial office space will be notable, but it does appear creditor restructuring has been reasonably pre-negotiated and is not likely to result in huge vacancies hitting the market.

For all the weakness in manufacturing and insistence that construction is hurting and (especially) China’s weakness, why is iron ore doing so well and copper basically hanging in there?

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, November 6, 2023 Nov 06, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3SuN9Yy

Nothing like the Monday edition of DC Today. I’ll get right into it.

Dividend Cafe dealt with the subject of long term interest rates and what it all means for the economy and investors. I think it was a useful way to think about what the long term is supposed to measure, and what current Fed actions mean for that process.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Interest Rates and the Next Ten Years Nov 03, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3tWWLRz

It has been a volatile month in markets, to say the least. October represented the third consecutive negative month in all three market indices, coming off of a modest downturn in August and September, as well. October did it in more roller-coaster fashion, starting off the month with a 600-point drop in the first few days of the month, only to see that reverse to a +1,000 point increase from October 6’s low to October 11’s high (that’s a pretty quick comeback), only to then drop -1,500 points (no typo) from mid-month to late-month, only to then yet again rally, being up over +1,100 points from the low of last Friday to the time I am typing this just one week later.

But the intra-month volatility and the odd twists and turns of the market throughout the year all speak to a bigger underlying dynamic in markets that I have obsessively covered in these very pages all year – the role of monetary policy, financial conditions, and bond yields in driving investor outcomes in this very short term moment. That entire landscape was the heavy focus of our annual week spent with various money managers, hedge funds, and research partners this year (I covered Fed chair, Jerome Powell, last week). The evolution of our annual “due diligence” week has led to a lot more meetings with managers in private markets, as well (equity and credit). Across private and public markets, we got a chance to see what is most on the minds of asset managers at this stage of 2023, and you will be shocked to know it is not a lot different than the same things on the minds of all investors.

And those things are the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe – the underlying conditions right now creating multiple round trips of a thousand points in the market in just one month. Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, November 2, 2023 Nov 02, 2023

Today's Post -

Big rally day, with markets posting a very nice fourth day of gains, closing up 564 points and putting us now up almost 5% on the week. While I would love to say it’s off to the races, under the hood, the relative underperformance of the higher beta components of the market just feels less convincing. Another bond market rally day as well, with 10’s coming down another nine bps to now 4.67%, along with continued yield curve volatility.

Following a slightly lighter-than-expected Treasury issuance report that was more front-end loaded on the curve and QT, which has removed the largest buyer of the front end, we’ve gone from 18bps inverted yesterday morning to now 30bps.

For those citing the historical track record of an inverted curve un-inverting just before a recession starts (looking at you ‘bond king’), the last two days have us in the opposite direction.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, November 1, 2023 Nov 01, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3tYWGgn

So the market closed the month of October down -1.35% in the Dow, down -2.2% in the S&P, and -3.4% in the Nasdaq. Let’s just say those numbers got a lot better the last two days, though. And then today was noteworthy as well …

Fed Day is the best day, and today the Fed kept rates where they were, as expected. The market was up +100 when Powell began talking, it went up to +200, then gave that back, then went up +250, and closed just a tad below that level. More importantly, bonds rallied viciously – with each maturity from two to ten years on the treasury curve seeing yields drop over 10 basis points.

His only comments about quantitative tightening were that they were not, at this time, considering slowing down or ceasing their “run-off” of the balance sheet. The word “run-off” is key because they are not actively selling bonds – they are letting about $80 billion of bonds mature per month and not reinvesting the proceeds. This is a form of tightening, but less aggressive than some have suggested.

Bottom line – Powell was pretty clear that they know financial conditions are, themselves, doing their work for them, and while he skirted around QT it is hard to see how anyone could hear what he said today and conclude any additional rate hikes are coming.

As mentioned yesterday the rally on Monday saw 2.5 advancers for every 1 decliner, and yesterday it repeated at 2.3 to 1. A year ago when the market bottomed and a nine-month rally began the breadth of the rally was consistently above 5-to-1 and sometimes well above 10-to-1. Market participation is still too thin to feel good about things.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, October 31, 2023 Oct 31, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QErw6L

With half of the companies having reported quarterly results, we now see +4.3% earnings growth year-over-year and +1.4% revenue growth. Of course, half is only half.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, October 30, 2023 Oct 30, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49hz1aU

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, October 25, 2023 Oct 25, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/45RiZ4B

Yesterday’s little market move was pretty weak sauce (not even 2-to-1 advancers to decliners and not even 1% in any index). Yields soared back today, putting downward pressure on the S&P and Nasdaq in a 2022 kind of day.

Yesterday, I recorded DC Today in the studio in our Newport Beach offices, had already submitted the final written edition, and then walked down the hallway to my office to eight pop-ups and notifications and alerts that Tom Emmer had removed himself for contention for the House speakership. Five minutes earlier, I had talked about how he was the most recent candidate, but I still didn’t see a path for him to get the votes. Twenty-four hours later, Congressman Mike Johnson of Louisiana is the new Speaker of the House.

In one day, our Q3 earnings season theme of divergent results amongst companies was on high profile display as the largest software company and an up-and-comer in cloud applications (Microsoft) posted positive results, while the largest search and advertising revenue firm in the world (Google) posted negative cloud revenue.

The S&P earnings yield is still higher than a 10-year treasury yield (total earnings dividend by share price). Of course, that differential is less than it has been in the last twenty years, but it is actually much more historically in line with where it was in the 1980s and 90s. The highest earnings yield in the market? Energy.

China increased its tolerance for a deficit to the highest in thirty years last night (above the 3% limit of deficit-to-GDP) and stated that deflationary risk will not be tolerated. President Xi actually made a trip to their central bank (he has never done that). The fiscal side of Japanification seems to be coming. The monetary side is the question mark.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Fed Chair Said What? Oct 27, 2023

Today's Post -

I closed out our annual “money manager due diligence week” last week with a luncheon put on by the Economic Club of New York with Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell. He surprised me by saying some things that I was not expecting, and he also said a lot that I could have predicted verbatim (okay, I did predict verbatim) before the speech.

But despite all my earnest desire that the main action in markets let alone the economy not be at the whim of a few unelected academics, the Fed is the major story of markets right now. Their propensity to stay way too loose for way too long followed by a period of being way too tight for way too long is the cyclical and rotational story of our economic and market-oriented experience for 25 years.

We met with nearly twenty money managers last week (across a wide variety of asset classes in both private and public markets). We did not meet with a single one who did not bring up the Fed, the state of monetary policy, the potential direction of monetary policy, and its impact on how they think (and in some cases act).

So let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe where today is all about the Fed, the rubber chicken, and the radicals who stormed the stage before the speech began. Well, actually, we spend very little time talking about the rubber chicken or the people who stormed the stage and delayed the event for fifteen minutes while security and law enforcement did their thing. Those things really happened and were quite upsetting (especially the chicken). But the Dividend Cafe today is all about the actual words of Jerome Powell and what it all means. Off we go.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, October 24, 2023 Oct 24, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3tLGlvi

Markets today rallied a bit (though they closed off their highs) as Treasury yields calmed down and leveled out.

Earnings season is not even 20% complete yet, so all projections are quite premature, but thus far, revenue growth is coming in +0.9% year-over-year with earnings growth of +1.2%. There will be more meaty data to chew on in the next week and the week after that, of course.

Republicans nominated Tom Emmer as their new potential Speaker of the House, but it is highly doubtful they have the votes in a full vote of the House to get him approved.

A fair question – are many people buying Treasuries now not as a non-recession call (yields higher because there is no recession), but rather as a recession call (one will come and right now we get 5%, so buy now and then during a recession Treasuries rally and yields fall). In other words, is it a trade? And if it is one, is it a good one? Time will tell.

Was 5% the top in the 10-year? It is obviously way too early to say. It fell pretty quickly below it yesterday and today closed at 4.81%. But the bond market volatility in 2023 doesn’t allow us to read anything whatsoever into 19 basis points or 30 hours.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, October 23, 2023 Oct 23, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QqYcRa

So the market came into today just 300 points above its intra-day low of Friday the 6th at the beginning of this month, having rallied about a thousand points off of that in the six days that followed, but then selling off three days in a row to end last week. Bill Ackman announced this morning that he had covered his short on U.S. Treasuries (another way of saying this is that he ended his bet on rates going higher). Bonds also rallied on the news as the 10-year yield dropped 17 basis points (from +8 to -9).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

All That Is On Your Mind - October 2023 Oct 20, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46P3YBs

Greetings from New York City, where I will be leaving very early Friday morning to head back to California for a week and where I have been in meetings all week with our major money manager partners across every asset class in which we live. I had thought about doing today’s Dividend Cafe as a sort of recap of the week, but I am going to need the plane flight home to better organize 25 pages of notes and more decks than I know what to do with. I am in content overload mode at the moment, which is one of my favorite modes to be in (often times I am in Chinese food overload mode, so “too many charts” about the economy is far healthier than “too much fried rice”). I plan to really clean up my notes and takeaways and allow more organized thoughts to create a deliverable around this week’s findings. Brian Szytel and Kenny Molina are phenomenal Investment Committee partners, and we were all richly blessed by the conversations we enjoyed this week on interest rates, economic projections, housing, credit markets, relative value opportunities, and more. So, for those who want to tag along a bit on the week, stay tuned – more to come.

But that does leave me with a Dividend Cafe to write and not a whole lot of margin in which to write it. Luckily for me (and maybe for you??), a robust set of questions has come in that I have been sandbagging, and it seems like a good time to use Dividend Cafe to answer all of your latest and greatest questions. I am quite confident these questions that have come in will reflect things on the minds of many of you, so get ready for some good takes on such subjects as fears about interruption to dividend growth, minimum wage laws, velocity and inflation, dollar strength, China, and more on the Israel/Middle East situation (discussed in last week’s Dividend Cafe).

Get ready to jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, October 19, 2023 Oct 19, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q1Ot2c

This is Trevor Cummings playing backup quarterback for one more day. As mentioned, David will be back with you tomorrow with his weekly Dividend Cafe. Today is quite a busy one for David, as he will be attending both the Economic Club of New York for Jerome Powell’s speech and then closes out the evening at the National Review Gala.

With that said, we’ve got a handful of data and news to keep us busy for the time being. We will tackle initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, existing home sales, Powell’s speech, and Jordan’s persistence.

That was a mouthful, now off we go…

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, October 18, 2023 Oct 18, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48YpBB6

This is Trevor Cummings filling in for David Bahnsen. David is in the midst of day three of his annual TBG Money Manager Due Diligence trip. As mentioned, he will be back with you for the weekly Dividend Cafe on Friday.

Markets were a bit more active today than yesterday. We also had a rebound in housing starts, another L for Jordan’s ballot push, and Biden seeking a monumental aid package for Israel.

And off we go…

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, October 17, 2023 Oct 17, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46UIS4q

Today David Bahnsen is on day two of the annual TBG Money Manager Due Diligence trip in New York. This is an exciting time of the year as our investment committee dives deep into all the portfolio particulars and then surfaces with a plethora of content to share with our clients as well as some actionable portfolio items. I believe this is year 18 of this trip and something that I know (1) David greatly enjoys and (2) has a meaningful impact on how we manage capital for our clients.

Thank you, David, and we look forward to welcoming you back for the Dividend Cafe on Friday.

With that said, I, Trevor Cummings, will take the reigns today and walk you through the latest market happenings.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Horror in Israel, History, and Your Portfolio Oct 13, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ZSi3fd

I am writing this week’s Dividend Cafe from my apartment in New York City, very early on Friday morning, hours before I will leave for an all-day symposium I have attended every year since 2009 (besides the COVID-cancelled years, of course). I mention this only because my philosophy of dealing with markets in the aftermath of exogenous shocks and particularly geopolitical events was heavily influenced by the historical realities taught to me at this very symposium over the years. I do not learn anything new in attending any more; I just immensely benefit from the reinforcement. But this week we have had an event so tragic, so reprehensible, so infuriating, and yet also one that requires me to reinforce myself (perhaps redundantly) the principles and best practices prudent investors must hold dear.

But I also brought up New York City, because it had a terrorist event of its own back shortly after I entered the business, one which also profoundly impacted me. I have talked a lot in the past about the history of it and lessons learned. The 9/11 moment is, all at once, one of the seminal moments in my younger adult life, the very first shocking moment in my investment career, and an event obviously connected directly to New York City.

(You know, come to think of it, I was right here in March of 2020 as well when the COVID matter was becoming an American reality, and wrote about all of that, then, too. There is just a deep association for memorable market moments in my life and career with New York City).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, October 12, 2023 Oct 12, 2023

Today's Post -https://bahnsen.co/3FkhgKh

The headline and Core CPI figures today were largely in line with expectations as the market opened. However, we witnessed a reversal of early morning gains throughout the session, resulting in both stocks and bonds closing lower. Interestingly, Fed futures remained relatively unchanged after the release of these numbers, hovering at approximately two-thirds, suggesting that the Fed is unlikely to make any significant changes in the foreseeable future.

Today marks the one-year anniversary of the market lows experienced last year. What’s intriguing, though, are the disparities within the markets that contributed to the S&P 500’s impressive 22% gain over the past year, following a significant downturn in the previous year. Currently, less than half of the market is trading above its 200-day moving averages, indicating that the market’s performance has been far from universally strong.

Financials, in particular, have experienced a nearly 20% decline during this recovery, and it’s worth noting that this has been the weakest small-cap return following a market bottom in history. However, there is good news amidst this divergence. The contrast between interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as small caps and financials, and the lack of broad market participation presents numerous opportunities for value investors like ourselves to look forward to. Active management will be crucial in navigating this complex landscape.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, October 11, 2023 Oct 11, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LYNG0J

Treasury yields dropped again, and stocks rose again today.

The minutes from the Fed meeting last month came out today and said nothing new or unsurprising at all.

ExxonMobil agreed to buy Pioneer Resources for $59.5 billion in an all-stock deal that represents the largest oil and gas deal in over two decades.

I am not sure that an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza is imminent. Even though I am convinced, Israel will (and should) do whatever it can to eradicate and punish this atrocity, a ground invasion appears to involve so much complexity and challenge that much of the work I have read in the last 24 hours suggests it may require more planning, nuance, and particulars than was initially expected.

The IRS says Microsoft owes it $29 billion? They should’ve used TBG Tax!

The House Speaker race is going to be very interesting, with a majority of Republicans voting to send up Steve Scalise for a vote, but not potentially enough to get him over the needed line in a whole House vote.

More here:

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, October 10, 2023 Oct 10, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3S0qSBs

Markets today moved higher as bond yields came lower. One can argue that bond yields are dropping in response to comments from Fed governors yesterday (see below) but the more prominent factor is likely a slight flight-to-risk out of the war situation in Gaza. What it has done, though, is exacerbate the stock-bond correlation whereby they were both dropping in September and now are both rallying.

Earnings season launched with Pepsi announcing their results before the market opened. Markets liked it.

President Biden joined with European leaders in a joint statement taking an unambiguous stance against Hamas and for Israel. He gave a speech this afternoon that conceded there are American fatalities and hostages. Congress and even the White House are not really the challenge here – a rare thing to be able to say in this day and age. The challenge for the President will be, to borrow from my favorite political commentator, Mark Halperin, “the squad, and then Harvard students.” But there also will be a real challenge for the administration to maintain their posture with Iran (it will likely be impossible), and what can be done about American hostages taken by Hamas is not going to be easy either. Add to that the complexity of getting aid for Ukraine and Israel in the next 2-3 weeks, and this is going to be a challenging time at the White House.

The death toll appears to be over 1,500 now. The reports all seem to indicate that one of the reasons Israeli intelligence picked up nothing on what Hamas was doing was that there was simply no electronic communication about it at all – none.

The Republican mess over the next Speaker of the House is as blurry, evenly divided, and unclear as it was a week ago.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, October 9, 2023 Oct 09, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3tpEJXU

All attention this weekend immediately moved Saturday morning to the unspeakable attacks on Israel by Hamas, the declaration of war to protect themselves by Israel, and speculation as to what the ramification would be. I assure you ample commentary is provided on those subjects in this edition of The DC Today,

An important thing to note today: the stock market was open, but bond markets (and banks) were not. There is obviously action in the bond futures world (indicating yields down and prices up), but with no cash market bond action it is simply a distorted and weird day. It only happens twice every year (Columbus Day being one of them), but it basically never happens following a weekend of such global turmoil. As an earnest believer in price discovery, I feel somewhat limited in terms of thoughts and deeds when all useful information is not actually available.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Current State of Affairs Oct 06, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LS40QV

On August 1 of this year the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 35,630. As of press time this morning, just a tad over two months later, it is trading just below 33,000. This is a -7.5% drop in about nine weeks, which we will discuss more in today’s Dividend Cafe. If -7.5% in nine weeks doesn’t seem like that big of a deal, it’s because it isn’t. However, what I didn’t mention is that almost all of that drop has been in the last three weeks (-6% of the -7.5%). The Nasdaq has fared a tad worse with similar timing in the numbers – a peak at the end of July, a slow drip down since, with an accelerated downturn the last few week.

The right thing for me to do in this period is probably not write about it. By addressing it I enter the unavoidable territory of contradicting best behavioral practices around market downturns. And yet we exist to offer perspective, point-of-view, commentary, and conviction, and so to not address key market or economic activity would also be problematic.

The reality is that a -5% or -7% drop in markets (or more, for that matter) is a par for the course, standard, status quo, always-to-be-expected part of equity investing. I shouldn’t (and won’t today) write as if it is an urgency or source of panic in any investor’s life. The behavioral realities around market volatility should (and will be today) constantly reinforced. And at the same time, there are particulars in this stage of the cycle that I think are worth unpacking.

So today’s Dividend Cafe does it all today – it holds in tension the two things I most struggle with on these pages: the macro commentary of current events, and the behavioral wisdom of how not to react to such.

Let’s jump in to the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, October 5, 2023 Oct 05, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3F8Luji

More or less, there is one market movement right now, even if it has three parts. Bond yields and the dollar are in the same direction; stocks are in the opposite direction. Those three in those respective relationships are all part of one story, not three different stories.

In a nutshell, I remain convinced that the story has become one of quantitative tightening. The Fed is a seller (sort of) of Treasuries, not a buyer (meaning they are not rolling over matured bonds). Global central banks are buying less to support their own currencies. And that leaves individuals and economic buyers who buy at good yields but not lower yields.

On Capitol Hill, the race for the new speaker is setting up to be a real circus. I know, you are shocked.

Gasoline is down over -20% in the last three weeks!

Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed said in a speech today that, wait for it, holding rates where they are is also restrictive monetary policy! Hmmmm, you don’t say.

Other than that, it was an uneventful day, and the intra-day swing was only -225 points (the chart visually looks more violent) – all in a flat day.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, October 4, 2023 Oct 04, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46j9PPy

Following another down day yesterday, we got a little reprieve in markets, with both stocks and bonds posting gains on the day. The biggest economic news on the day was the miss in ADP Payroll numbers, which starkly contrasted with yesterday's big upside surprise in the jobs openings report. More openings but fewer private payrolls could either mean there is a cyclicality or variability around the timing of correlation between the two or could have just been from the number of new job openings TBG just posted this month. Still, either way, the more significant number will be this Friday when nonfarm payroll numbers come out.

While yields came off following today's economic data during the trading day, it is notable to see 10-year yields hit 4.88% in overnight trading and 30-year treasuries reach 5%. As a result, US debt interest expense is now just over 14% of tax revenue, which has not been the case since the late 1990s and has historically been a threshold in which fiscal austerity begins to show. Fact notwithstanding, last night, we also saw the ousting of the Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, by his party for the first time in history for getting a bill passed not to cut spending to avoid a government shutdown.

I strongly suspect deficits at 7% of GDP during full employment will keep volatility high in Washington as tough decisions must be made. While the Fed says higher rates are here for longer, I remain skeptical, given the tightening financial conditions we have already seen.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, October 3, 2023 Oct 03, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3RJ28h3

Markets were hit hard again today, and I do imagine we are getting closer to some short-term capitulation, but you never know. The way the regional banks have been acting lately is noteworthy. This bond rally has not let up and is basically 100% of the current market story.

Why have oil prices gone up so much even as gas prices have not really gone up (and have, in fact, come down)? Refinery margins have collapsed, period. There is more than one input to retail gas prices at the pump.

Cleveland Fed President, Loretta Mester, is the latest Fed head to say she believes another rate hike is needed. But she also said part of that would depend on … “the UAW strike” ?????? Yep. She is not a voting member of the FOMC, by the way.

You’ve heard all the talk about record levels of credit card debt. It is currently 3.7% of nominal GDP. It was 3.9% of nominal GDP in late 2019. It was 4.2% in 2010 after the financial crisis. Sorry, but the numerator is not the only number in a fraction.

Market rates are tightening without the Fed. The idea that the Fed would pour gasoline on top of this is surreal to me. But so is modern central banking.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, October 2, 2023 Oct 02, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3F3CrAp

Ask David

“A couple weeks ago in your ‘What to Look for in an Advisor‘ Dividend Cafe, you pointed out that most advisors outsource portfolio management and asset allocation, and you expressed your disagreement with that trend. I agree with you, but I was wondering if you could unpack the specific reasons for why you disagree with outsourcing the investment process and why there is merit in direct portfolio management by advisors.” ~ Nathan

I really don’t feel strongly that most advisors should be managing capital directly, and in fact, for a significant amount of advisors I have met, considering their work ethic and intellectual capacity, I am glad they don’t. But I do feel that TBG should because we consider it our calling, part of our authentic skill set, and a huge part of our value proposition. What I believe is more universal, though, is that all advisors should have some baseline competence in capital markets, even if they do not practice security selection or portfolio management directly. And that they should be accountable for who they outsource to and not use third-party partners as mitigation of their own decision-making.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Long Term Capital Memories Sep 29, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4598Q3a

I hope (and assume) that long-time and regular readers of Dividend Café know that I am a sucker for history. I think this is true of all history, going back thousands of years, covering many eras, geographies, nations, people, and events, but it is especially true of American history. 20th-century American history is not very old, but wow, is there ever a lot of material there.

What happened in 1906 or 1915 or 1933 that matters to us today is “history” now – but when it was happening, it was “future history.” It was also well before I was born. There are, though, events in my lifetime, even my adult lifetime, that represent future history, much like the events of the early 20th century I allude to above. Knowing that I lived through these more recent events, that I have my own particular context to add, that they were both personal and all at once cultural – it all makes my interest in “modern events” of my adult lifetime that will be “future-historical” intense and profound. If I write too often or too obsessively about such things, forgive me, but it isn’t going to stop. I believe living through history being made is almost as fun as studying the history that was long ago made. And all of it I count one of the great blessings of this life.

It deeply impacted my life and allows me to obnoxiously wax and wane nostalgically, but it also deeply impacts your portfolio, even today. For much of the last 25 years you might argue this event had the most significant market impact, period. I am not being hyperbolic.

And that event is the subject of this week’s Dividend Café. Let’s jump into a little modern history and a 25th anniversary you will benefit from understanding.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, September 28, 2023 Sep 28, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/468UHnU

This morning, we had a slew of economic data that moved markets modestly to the upside in stocks and bonds in a fairly positive trading day throughout the session. Q2 GDP revision was largely unchanged, jobless claims were better than expected, and Core PCE revision was also unchanged.

Yields moved lower across the curve following the releases, which put some wind in the sails for most risk assets today. The inverted yield curve is slowly but surely becoming less so as longer rates rise, and is now half of what it was a month ago at 47 bps on 2/10’s from over 100 bps.

With short rates anchored closer to Fed Funds, why are longer rates moving higher? A combination of the Fed’s QT, Japan’s exit of Yield Curve control, US budget deficits and less Treasury demand from China on falling exports.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, September 27, 2023 Sep 27, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3rtSIve

The market opened up a bit and got up nearly -150 points before dropping nearly -300 points (an intra-day swing of over -400 points) before rallying back a few hundred points and closing down just -68 points.

Who knows what the next two trading days hold but right now the only asset class on my screen up on the month is the DOLLAR. Bonds, Gold, Europe, Emerging, TIPS, Small Cap, Tech. Utilities – you name it, all down. The dollar, up nicely (DXY).

At this time we expect the government shutdown will kick in on October 1 (this Sunday).

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, said yesterday that if rates were to get to 7% you would see a deflationary asset unwind and a lot of asset bubbles burst. The media ran with the comment as if he were predicting that rates would go to 7%, which of course, he was not.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, September 26, 2023 Sep 26, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/45cmDG2

Markets were hit again today (five out of six days to the downside) as the Biden administration announced a major antitrust lawsuit against Amazon, and general market jitters continued (despite a flat day in bond yields).

Why is the U.S. dollar up so much when things are supposed to be so bad in the U.S.? A good place to start might be the fact that yields are high and growth has been decent (and compared to other places, quite decent). Currency is a relative game, always and forever. More dollar bears have lost their faces and reputations, failing to understand that basic point more than anything else.

To be totally honest (and believe it or not, I am serious right now), I cannot remember if “net neutrality” rules were supposed to ruin the internet and the world as we know it or if “rescinding net neutrality rules” was supposed to ruin the internet and the world as we know it. What I do know, or at least I think I know, is that we used to have them (I think), and then they were rescinded in the Trump administration (I think), and it doesn’t seem like a lot of horrible things happened in having them or not having them. And then this morning, I see that with the Biden Administration now having a majority of votes at the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), the intent is underway to bring back net neutrality rules, which is either a good thing or a bad thing. I would have more to say if I could keep it all straight.

Another Fed governor is talking about a further rate hike, and futures respond by INCREASING the odds of NO further hike. Follow the fed funds futures, not the rush to a microphone.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, September 25, 2023 Sep 25, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48qpYnM

Status of the shutdown – Speaker McCarthy is trying to split enough of the far “right” (I hate that term applied here) to avoid a shutdown. He’s currently attempting to package several appropriations bills together and send them to the House for a vote. The votes appear to be questionable as to whether or not they will be there, and this does not avoid a shutdown. These bills, IF passed in the House, have no chance of passing in the Senate. There appear to be enough votes in the House against any form of continuing resolution whatsoever that keeping the government open past this weekend is highly unlikely.

How it could play out: Option 1: The House passes a bill this week, the Senate amends it (to put it mildly), the House then rejects that, the government shuts down, a deal happens to end that, and Speaker McCarthy ends up removed from his post; OR, Option 2: No bill is passed out of the House, the Senate passes a bill, a deal is cut between House moderates and Democrats, and a shutdown is averted (with McCarthy likely removed shortly thereafter) I think Speaker McCarthy has moves to help avert a shutdown or, more likely, end one after it has started (see above). In both cases, I think he greatly improves his chance of being removed as Speaker.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Fed's Pickle Sep 22, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3EPBStR

Actually, the inspiration for this week’s Dividend Cafe is not “why markets were down this week or this month” – but rather something more substantial and thematic. There are some “whys” that are more important than “whats” right now and big picture, I felt certain macroeconomic themes we are watching were worth a whole Dividend Cafe.

That verbiage makes it sound kind of boring, but really, I am just under-selling the excitement of what lies ahead for those who jump into this Dividend Cafe … You will not want to miss the drama and fun. Off we go

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, September 21, 2023 Sep 21, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48s8IyG

The violence was most felt in the bond market as yields rallied dramatically at the long end of the curve. As yields did not move much (or at all) in the short end of the curve, you saw a fair amount of inversion eroded. It is all a rate story now – as stocks are following bonds, not vice versa. QT is tightening, and high rates are tightening (with the bond market doing more of it for them). Something has to break eventually.

The Bank of England also left its interest rate alone, pausing after 14 consecutive increases.

The House GOP was four votes short of having the votes needed to advance their compromise funding bill. Some tweaks are in motion to allow for a new vote next week.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, September 20, 2023 Sep 20, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44YX2Am

The Fed basically was explicit in tying their “we need to stay restrictive” posture to the resilient economy (which, unfortunately to them, has been “expanding at a solid pace”).

The market was up +200 points before the announcement and press conference, it dropped -100, rallied back +100, then dropped -150 (so still up over +50 points) before closing down -77 points (but with the Nasdaq down -1.53%). Bond yields at first barely moved but then the short end moved up five basis points and the long end flattish.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, September 19, 2023 Sep 19, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LvZG9P

Oil hit a ten-month high this morning. Bonds continue selling off as yields continue rallying. Japanese ownership of Treasuries increased by $7 billion on the month, while Chinese holdings decreased by $13 billion.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, September 18, 2023 Sep 18, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44YIrFd

Nothing like the Monday DCT with a great deal of stuff for you today about housing, policy, the economy, markets, and more!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What to Look For in an Advisor Sep 15, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3r79obX

Thursday afternoon I received an inquiry through the “questions” portal whereby a reader asked “how one is supposed to go about selecting a financial advisor” – attaching to the question the appropriate sub-questions around trust, qualifications, needs, and services. I know I have addressed this topic over the years but I think it has been at least five years if not longer, and it is a topic that you may be shocked to hear I have many opinions on.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, September 14, 2023 Sep 14, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3EGfov8

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised their rate to 4%, and bond yields FELL (go figure) – mostly because markets price in today what they believe about the future.

Job hirings have slowed, but job firings have too. We live in interesting times.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, September 13, 2023 Sep 13, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44MsGRn

Today was a heavily anticipated news day for markets, with August CPI coming largely in line with expectations at .6% on headline inflation for the month and 3.7% year-over-year. As we had expected, higher energy prices moved that headline number, with gasoline specifically up 10.5%, which accounted for almost half of the total move higher in CPI. The Fed pays more attention to core CPI (ex food and energy), which was up .3% on the month and stands now at 4.3% y/y. All said, we got about what we had expected today: decreasing shelter costs offset a rise in energy prices to some degree, and Fed futures didn’t budge much. Yields were up a few basis points across most of the curve, and stocks held in.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, September 12, 2023 Sep 12, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PExy76

Mexico has the strongest currency in the world this year. Its stock market is on fire (near the best in the world this year), It has overtaken China as the biggest supplier of goods to the United States (did you know that?). Direct investment from foreign countries into Mexico is up +40% in 2023 alone. Do you see why I refer to “near-shoring” as much as “on-shoring“? The diminishment of supply chain dependency on China in the United States is happening. But it may prove to be much more of a Mexico story than a Rust Belt story.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, September 11, 2023 Sep 11, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4680dH4

The first thing I will say before delving into this September 11 edition of DC Today as I sit here in New York City is that I honor those who were killed that day, and I will never, ever forget the atrocity that it was. I have written about this day in a very special Dividend Cafe before (I encourage you to re-read it), but regardless, whether it has been 22 years or when it is one day, 52 years, I will never, ever forget.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

If Only One Could Predict the Future, It Still Wouldn’t Matter Sep 08, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PxghfG

Today, I would like to use the last five years to make some broader points about the realities of investing. Evergreen realities are, well, permanent. Yet we find within the last five years some serious bold-faced reiteration of these realities to which I refer (and as you will soon see, there actually is a particular single reality most on my radar this week).

So, in this week’s Dividend Cafe, we will look at the last five years and extract from this little short-term window some big-picture lessons that are sure to matter for more than just the last five years. Consider it part “History” (albeit recent history) and part “Investing 101” …

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, September 7, 2023 Sep 07, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/466evrH

Markets acted a little more 2022-ish today, with defensives all up and Technology way down. Reports of a Chinese iPhone ban from government departments took a toll, and the U.S. dollar may be headed to its eighth consecutive weekly increase (longest streak since 2005 if it holds).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, September 6, 2023 Sep 06, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LcqThy

Oil is the story of markets yet again, with Brent now passing $90 and WTI Crude passing $87. The idea that oil was between $65 and $75 for months and we did nothing to help re-fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is just surreal to me. These prices at now 10-month highs are sure to exacerbate the delta between core and headline inflation in the months ahead.

Just 37% of companies in the S&P 500 were above their 50-day moving average this morning as internal momentum continues to dissipate.

China and Japan are not happy about the dollar’s recent rise and are pledging decisive action to arrest their own currency’s drop relative to the U.S. dollar.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, September 5, 2023 Sep 05, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3r2cE8d

This is the kind of DC Today I love love love writing – where I really get to absorb a lot of material and bring pen to paper (or finger to keys) in all categories. I always loved this format the most, and being able to do this long-form version once a week is a true joy for me. Doing it every single day as I did for quite some time (though today’s is fuller than even the old format normally was) just became way too much, and I do hope the new program (long-form once a week, shorter form with daily podcast/video three times a week, Dividend Cafe on Friday) is working for everyone. I certainly solicit feedback about that. But in the meantime, enjoy this first post-Labor Day “fall and football are here” version of the DC Today. Note the deep dive into Public Policy and Housing (with all categories covered).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Buffet of Answers Sep 01, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/487nJFU

So you may have seen in yesterday’s DC Today that my plans for an out-of-country few days with my wife this week, unplugged from work and electronics, was foiled yet again, this time by Hurricane Franklin. We have a running list over the last nearly 25 years of that which has prevented such an “unplugging,” and truth-be-told, we just are what we are. It seems to be a bigger focus to others that we “relax” and “take it easy” than it is to us. We accept this is a full-time job.

But yes, it was not the week we had thought was coming. This week’s Dividend Cafe is the Dividend Cafe I thought was coming, though. A long list of really thoughtful questions is worked through covering such topics as the Fed, private credit, growth investing, the U.S. dollar, Saudi Arabia, the 2024 election, municipal bonds, and so much more. It is a lot of fun and sure to offer something for everyone.

So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe. There may be a hurricane in Bermuda, but there is clarity, perspective and answers, in this place where we belong.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, August 31, 2023 Aug 31, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47WCxH3

I arrived back in California late last evening with Hurricane Franklin having cancelled our previously mentioned trip out of the country. Joleen and I replaced it with a couple days away at our place in the Hamptons, not exactly unplugged, but not exactly fully working. Maybe the notion of a true work-free unplugged trip will happen some day, but I have to say, so far, a pretty comical list of sincere attempts to see it happen have been tried and failed. I am very grateful to Brian Szytel for the last three days of DC Todays and I am back in the California office today and happy to be back with you.

We are up to an 89% chance in the futures market of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting in late September, and a 54% chance of no hike at the meeting after that in November. The five-year inflation breakeven priced in the TIPS market is 2.16%. Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, cautioned against the Fed over-tightening and said current Fed policy was “appropriately restrictive.”

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, August 30, 2023 Aug 30, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3sAjvX7

Futures looked like we were going to give a little back from the move higher the past three days until about 830AM EST when we got a slew of softer than expected economic data, and since bad news is the new good for markets, moved us back into positive territory on the day. Q2 GDP was revised a little lower, ADP Payroll came in weaker than expected, and the part that is actually good news (meaning not a number showing our economy quite as fast as we thought and less people are finding jobs), Core PCE came in lower than expected for Q2. After yesterdays softer job openings and then today, fed fund futures are slowly tilting back towards peak rates but we are still at 55% pause and 45% hike for Nov/Dec. A good amount of numbers below for you, and a better amount of walking through it all in the video podcast link.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, August 29, 2023 Aug 29, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3L3fHUy

The third up day in a row in markets today in a broad-based rally that closed at the high. The S&P 500 is still down 2% for the month, but with three trading days left in the last week of summer, we’ll see if we get a little more back before Labor Day weekend. Yields were lower across the entire curve today, with treasuries rallying following a much lower-than-expected July JOLTS new jobs report. Following yesterday’s underwhelming market response to stimulus, China is considering having its major banks decrease mortgage rates on about 38 trillion yuan ($5T) worth of existing loans which moved markets there up 2% on the day. Whether those efforts will prove effective will have to be seen, but I do think it’s putting a bid in global energy prices, which were up again today.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, August 28, 2023 Aug 28, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Pe4vqK

Brian Szytel takes on DC Today through Wednesday, so we leave you in his capable hands!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Looming Problems Aug 25, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Pe4vqK

The right thing to do with Dividend Cafe the weekend USC football season is beginning is just replay last year’s edition over and over again, one of my favorite Dividend Cafes of all time … But alas, I have never rehashed old material for a Dividend Cafe since this weekly writing began in September of 2008 and I won’t start now. Fresh and new every week is the commitment, so fresh and new you shall receive (no matters how much Fight On it sometimes entails).

You may have heard that tbere are other things happening in the world besides USC’s imminent kickoff to their season. As I type Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, is preparing to speak at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In the last 15 months or so he has raised the federal funds target rate over 5%, something nearly 100% of economists would have predicted would break the back of the economy a year ago. Here we are a year later, and not only is the economy not broken, but markets are not all that distraught, either. They aren’t great. And economic growth is tepid. But nothing has broken. Yet.

But we are not exactly out of the woods, either. And in fact one could argue that the damage done from the Fed’s tightening has surfaced (or is about to surface) in less obvious ways. And that is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe. Maybe the Fed wants to create 7% unemployment (because, you know, more people unemployed brings down prices). Maybe a lot of economists predict that will happen (and were predicting it 18 months ago). But whether economic recession should happen (it shouldn’t) or will happen (TBD), there are certainly other looming problems that warrant discussion. And for that discussion, you will want to jump in to this week’s Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, August 24, 2023 Aug 24, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44urVw5

Nasdaq futures were up over 1% this morning with technology exuberance following NVidia’s big earnings beat last night (the stock itself was up 10% pre market). So why did the stock end up closing just flat? Valuations do matter. We talk about it often but excitement over AI or other shiny object parts of the market get priced in with lofty expectations almost always well ahead of any reasonable realities (aka buy the rumor sell the news).

Down day in markets overall in a wide trading range on they day. The Dow was up over 220 points and closed down -373 points. The Nasdaq was up over 1% this morning and closed down -1.87%, and yields were higher across the curve. The Fed economic policy forum started today in Jackson Hole WY, with comments out tomorrow. We had jobless claims come in better than expected, and headline durable goods orders miss, and our August doldrums in markets continued so a few things to walk through in todays video podcast link below.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, August 23, 2023 Aug 23, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44nfT7G

Markets caught a little relief today, and the biggest AI chipmaker seems to have hit it out of the park after hours (we’ll see what holds tomorrow). Bonds rallied substantially, and so as bond yields fell, equities rose …

There has been chatter about rising credit card delinquencies. Let’s be clear – rising from 2% to 2.6% is an increase, but this is an increase to the average of the last ten years, which is exactly 2.6% since 2011. And for the twenty years prior to that, the average delinquency rate for credit cards was 4.4%. There is nothing, yet, that is concerning or prophetic in the credit card delinquency data. Not yet.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, August 22, 2023 Aug 22, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/45fwZGb

This was the fifth day out of six that the Dow was down.

China is defending its weakening Yuan currency by making it more expensive to bet against it (raising the funding costs makes it more expensive to short). They face a pickle of wanting looser monetary policy to support their weaker economy but wanting a stronger Yuan as their currency has depreciated in recent months.

The UPS workers finalized their $30 billion pay raise.

How distorted are things in the market right now? The Nasdaq was UP +1.6% yesterday, yet 67% of the stocks in the index were negative.

The 2/10 curve is now only 69 basis points inverted (it had been well over 100bps at the peak).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, August 21, 2023 Aug 21, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44nVfEQ

A Monday DC Today, the way it is supposed to be today.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Chinafication: It's a Global Phenomena Aug 18, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44fYpKv

I am not sure it has gotten nearly the press it deserves, but the one economic story that has managed to get the financial press to talk about something besides the Fed’s rate plans and “will we or won’t we” talk regarding U.S. recession has been the state of China’s economy. Don’t get me wrong – it has hardly been barn-burning stuff, and press coverage has been limited to more substantive financial media (as opposed to the news that everyone watches, reads, and clicks). But there is increasing conversation about the state of China’s economy and what that means to the rest of the world.

If the coverage was merely, “China’s economy is not good,” it would be a pretty boring story. One of the reasons the story has a little interest to people is that after two years of hearing nothing but the “inflation” word when discussing places like the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, the Chinese economic conversation is carrying with it the word “deflation” – and that seems to have people’s ears perked up (even those who have no idea what it really means).

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we are going to take a look at the state of affairs in China and offer a little forecast as to where they may be headed. More important than current conditions, as I see it, is what they plan to do about it all. I will propose in the Dividend Cafe that China’s response will be every bit as relevant to the United States (and the rest of the globe) as it will be to China.

So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe, and let’s see if “Chinafication” is about to be a buzz word for the rest of the world.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, August 17, 2023 Aug 17, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3E5y8nq

10-year yields rose to 4.29% today on the way towards the October highs of last year at 4.34%, and the yield curve steepened with 2/10’s now at 65 bps. Today we saw jobless claims come in slightly better than expected and an upside surprise in the Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey data, both supporting higher growth expectations which is what moved rates on the long end for the day. Even though stocks and bonds sold off today, I am sticking with good economic news and still being good myself.

For all the back and forth on where rates will go, what the Fed will do, and will those things need to get restrictive enough to break something in the economy, so far, it has yet to materialize meaningfully. Keep in mind also that 10 YR rates floating around the mid 4’s, are hardly anything new. The 1960s, 1990s and 2000s all averaged as much, with plenty of positive real growth in GDP. The difference now is we have a vastly expanded global indebtedness paradigm, so the sustainability of how long growth can last along with higher rates comes more into question, and I suspect both will come in as time goes on.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, August 16, 2023 Aug 16, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3EicX1X

Following yesterday’s dismal economic data out in China and the largest rate cut there in 3 years (mind you, we are only talking about 15 bps), there was some add-on stress revealed in the real estate and financial markets today. One of China’s larger wealth management and shadow banking firms, with over $138B in assets, missed some repayments on some of its investments and is under review.

It is too early to tell if more financial contagion will occur definitively, and of course, you have a government there that can act if needed, but having managed client capital through the GFC in the US myself, a declining real estate market followed by several cracks like this in the financial system are eerily familiar warning signs and worth following. I do suspect the likely path is continued easing in monetary policy and, eventually, some form of stimulus to revive the Chinese economy, but since I know David will have more insight in this Friday’s Dividend Cafe on the subject, I will leave it there for now.

Interestingly in Asia, however, is Japan’s economic resurgence. Japan’s GDP last quarter was up a shocking 6% q/q on exports (recall how weak the Yen has been), which was the best organic reading since 2015. Going around the horn to the US, we had Fed minutes released from July’s meeting, leaving further potential rate increases on the table and some better-than-expected housing and industrial production numbers out. So what do you get with such a divergent economic paradigm amongst the first, second, and third largest economies of the world?

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, August 15, 2023 Aug 15, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44d1yL0

One of the things I used to get most frustrated by in the 2000-2007 period of artificially low interest rates, or 2010-2016, or 2020-2022, is how people assumed a central bank reducing rates was a good thing, when the only reason the Fed was doing it was because they believed things were bad. In other words, yes, a rate cut or low rates may (in many cases but not all) boost asset prices, but if the rate cut is coming because of fears of economic weakness (or actual economic weakness) there is ample reason to believe the celebration should be delayed. Now, I believe the Fed has rates way too tight right now and I further believe it is for all the wrong reasons. Yet if the Fed were cutting, not because they realize they over-did it, but rather because we were seeing screaming, severe recessionary conditions, does anyone believe that would be a positive thing?

The People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cut rates last night because things there are terrible. The Shanghai Composite Index was down -0.49% and the CSI 300 was down -0.31%. U.S. futures dropped -250 points and as I type the market is down -300 points (the final closing numbers are below). The reason risk assets responded negatively to what people intuitively (and naively) think is a good thing (i.e. unexpected rate cuts)? Because the rate cuts are due to things being, ummmm, bad. China’s situation now is case in point. This was the PBOC’s second rate cut this summer. Consumer spending, industrial production, and business investment were all less than expected. And everything happening there is teeing up this Friday’s Dividend Cafe on what I see as pending Chinafication – not the economic softening itself, but the response to the softening and what that creates.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, August 14, 2023 Aug 14, 2023

Today's Post -

Economic Front

Producer Prices were up +0.8% year-over-year in July (yes, less than 1%). Prices for intermediate processed goods are down -7.8% versus a year ago.

The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index came in at 71.2 on the month, down a whisker from last month’s 71.6 but up a good deal from the June print of 64.4

I did get a fair amount of inquiry about the news that total U.S. Credit card debt had exceeded $1 trillion last week. That the total number goes up and down year by year is actually the new news, since from 1958 to 1990 it only went up every single year without exception. But people do not realize – throughout the pandemic $150 billion was paid off the balances of U.S. credit card holders (I am sure some of this was use of stimulus money, and some was re-financing mortgage debt at historically low rates). Income and assets have grown more than credit card debt for those who hold the bulk of U.S. credit card debt. And most importantly, debt service payments as a percentage of household income sits below 10% right now. it had been over 13% prior to the financial crisis.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What is it all about anyways? Aug 11, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3DPZwWA

Four weeks ago, I devoted a Dividend Cafe to the subject of a “dividend growth mentality.” It was intended to, amongst other things, reiterate much of the underlying value proposition for investors in buying companies that return capital to shareholders via dividends and who increase those dividend payments year-over-year. The people who read Dividend Cafe are mostly investors, and all clients of our firm are investors. My interest in dividend growth is investor-centric – that is, how dividend growth accrues to the benefit of our clients.

And yet, as became clear to me from a couple of letter-writers in the aftermath of that Dividend Cafe, there is a sense which it begs the question to ask why it is good for investors to receive dividends. Don’t we first need to understand why companies, themselves, pay dividends? Would the benefit to us as investors matter if there were no benefits to the companies? Or is this whole thinking sort of confused?

Well, one thing I can promise you – you won’t be confused on any of this after you jump into this week’s Dividend Cafe, where we will seek to unpack this whole subject of companies paying dividends – why they do it, should they do it, and what does it all mean (economically and even philosophically).

Let’s be honest, and this is about as fun as it gets. So join me in the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, August 10, 2023 Aug 10, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/454dv7h

A tad to my surprise CPI came in even lower than expected (+3.2% vs. consensus estimates of +3.3%). The core rate was +4.7% as anticipated. On the month, prices ex-food, ex-energy and ex-the B.S. shelter figure were down -0.1%. Within that +3.2% the shelter component was up +7.8%, as the model shows OER (owner’s equivalent rent) up +7.7% on the year and Rentals of primary residence up +8%. Uh huh.

Core goods prices are up +0.8% on the year. +0.8%. The annualized total CPI from the last three months even with the bad shelter data is +1.9%.

Shelter is overstating headline inflation by 30% and core inflation by 40% (and I actually think it is mor than that). Month-to-month data is moved by base effects of the year prior and energy prices. As for energy prices, it looks like much of the oil and gas surge was late July and not as captured in this month’s data as I would have expected.

Two years ago this exact week the S&P was at 4,450 or so. Fast forward to today, the S&P is at 4,450 or so. But the 10-year yield was 1.32% and is now 4.02%. Would anyone guess that a near tripling of the bond yield would leave the market flat? Now, the Nasdaq is down -8.3% over the last two years, but still, you get the idea. Sometimes facts make no sense unless you have the gift of hindsight. Be careful about applying an investment conclusion to your forward-looking premises. As I always say, it will be hard enough for your premises to come true. It will be even harder for the conclusions that come from your premises to prove accurate.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, August 9, 2023 Aug 09, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3YukmEv

I think the biggest news of the day was China’s -0.3% consumer price index for the month of July, and it’s -4.4% producer price index. This was the tenth month in a row of wholesale price deflation, but it was the first month in over two years of consumer price deflation. I am dedicating next week’s Dividend Cafe to the subject of Chinafication.

In keeping with the message of the last two Dividend Cafes, our “credit watch” has a couple interesting things to note. Earnings were covering interest expense on investment grade loans 9.2x over right before the Fed began hiking rates. They are now covering them 8.2x. This is called the Interest Coverage Ratio and a high one is good (more coverage of the interest expense by the earnings of the company). Now, that number will get all the way down to 6x in recessions (2020, 2008, 2002), so this move down is not dramatic, but it is a deterioration that is worth watching. With High Yield it has moved from about 5x to just over 4x. Across the levered loan world total leverage is up a tad (debt divided by earnings), and coverage of the interest expense by either earnings or free cash flow is down a bit. None of these metrics yet indicate anything broken, yet all of them are modestly worse off than they were 12-18 months ago.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, August 8, 2023 Aug 08, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3OoSkpj

From what I had initially thought would be a relatively quiet day in markets given the economic calendar, we ended up with a good amount of news to chew through in choppy markets with stocks selling off, a bid in bonds and volatility continuing its week-long climb. China reported softer than expected trade activity in exports and imports, reflecting its continued anemic recovery post-pandemic and further softness in its attempt to shift more towards a consumption-based economy.

Following Fitch's downgrade on US debt last week, Moody's joined the downgrade party lowering the credit rating on ten small and mid-sized US banks today, issuing a negative outlook on over a dozen larger banks. Higher rates, an inverted yield curve, and concern in commercial real estate, not to mention the stress earlier in the year with SVB/FRB, all seem well-known at this point, so this felt a bit behind the curve. Stocks traded lower on the news down over 450 points by mid morning before regaining through the rest of the day closing down only modestly. All fully unpacked in the podcast video link below.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, August 7, 2023 Aug 07, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Yoorda

Greetings from New York City (again). Lots of fun stuff today in my favorite DC Today of the week – the Monday edition (I love Mondays for so many reasons).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Some Extra Credit Aug 04, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3rVTWPV

I hope that you found last week’s Dividend Cafe on Credit to be informative and interesting. It’s summertime, and some people are more focused on the beach and the sun than syndicated loans, but not me. The cool factor has never quite been something people associated with me, and if I have to enter the month of August with a double issue of Dividend Cafe on Credit markets, I am going to do it.

But it isn’t just for the least cool of us like me – as I mentioned last week, Credit is a sine qua non in our economy. It is not an end for economic activity, but it is a vital part of the means. Oil and gasoline are not the points of driving, but good luck driving without them (okay, fine, or without electricity – the point is the same). The point of last week’s Dividend Cafe was that Credit is both a signifier or messenger about economic reality and, at the same time, a catalyst or influencer on economic activity.

I wrote last week’s Dividend Cafe in sub-optimal conditions (I will leave it there) and knew as I was wrapping it up that there was more to say, so I committed to a second part. So consider today some “extra credit” (see what I did there) – and jump on into the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, August 3, 2023 Aug 03, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QoFycQ

Saudi put a further stake in the ground on extending production cuts, and oil jumped over +2.5% as a result (nearing $82 WTI). Again, they cite the silliness of SPR not making any moves to refill (something I spoke about on CNBC last night).

Other than 2008 when the world was ending, 2022 and 2023 have seen the highest bond volatility since the 1980’s. This year has actually seen more days of > 10bp moves in two-year treasury yields than even last year did!

The higher yield levels in the long end of the curve are the story of the week in financial markets, for sure, though. The 10-year is not back to the 4.35% high it saw last year but it is comfortably over 4% again.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, August 2, 2023 Aug 02, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3DGpZpC

Fitch (the least known of the three major credit rating agencies) downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA+, citing growing fiscal deterioration and overall debt burden. Now, you might be thinking, “oh no this sounds really bad,” and certainly anyone who doesn’t think the debt burden in the U.S. is really bad has, shall we say, not let the medication wear off … But on the other hand, not referring to the debt itself – just referring to Fitch saying all this, you also might be thinking, “ummmm, did you guys just return to the office yesterday?” All headlines and Johnny-come-latelies aside, treasury yields laughed off this announcement today. We should note, S&P moved the rating to AA+ twelve years ago.

If one were looking to understand financial market responses to U.S. sovereign debt reality, they would be more focused on the ramifications for liquidity in the financial system (Fed actions with easing and tightening and levels of reserves in the banking system) than the ability to repay debt. The latter is simply not a concern. The former is a volatile, uncertain, and unstable tale that ebbs and flows and impacts all sorts of risk assets.

The ADP jobs number once again blew out, this time at 324k private sector jobs created in July (versus 190k expected). We shall see what BLS says on Friday.

More than 40% of companies in the Russell 2000 (small cap index) have NEGATIVE earnings. Small cap benefits from active management.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, August 1, 2023 Aug 01, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3q8RMfd

August is off and running! The Dow was up +3.4% in July, nearly half of its total gain in 2023 coming in the month. Both the Nasdaq and S&P were up over +3% as well.

Bonds sold off today as yields rallied, and with a weak manufacturing number today, the only reason I can see bond yields climbing today is some expectation (for right or for wrong) that the jobs data will be strong this week.

Copper moving higher is not a sign of pending economic weakness, theoretically.

Congrats to the U.S. women’s soccer team on their 0-0 tie with Portugal, which enabled them to advance in the World Cup. Yep.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, July 31, 2023 Jul 31, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3rQeA3P

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Credit where Credit is Due Jul 28, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QipwRU Everyone loves to talk about the stock market. When it is doing well, people assume everything is great (wrongly). When it is doing poorly, people assume everything is terrible (wrongly). Presidencies can rise or fall based on the Dow or the S&P 500. The stock market is at least familiar to most people, even if they don’t own stocks. It has cultural familiarity on top of investment democratization.The same is not always true of the bond market, which is interesting since the bond market is so much larger and more important than the stock market. Interest rates, liquidity, mortgages, the currency of a country, and the monies that fund wars, governments, tunnels, schools, and bridges are all a by-product of the bond market. However, the overall world of “borrowing” (debt to one party, credit to another) covers more than just bonds. The “credit” markets delve into the borrowings that exist to make possible homebuilding, homebuying, home re-financing, commercial real estate, small business loans, big business loans, and so much else. Securitizing the debt around car loans, credit card loans, and even aircraft and yacht loans is big business. Credit is not just a “boring” bond market – it is what makes the world turn into a highly robust and active economy. Capital is needed to fund capitalism, and that capital is, far more often than not, “credit” – not “equity” … Today in the Dividend Cafe, we look at the current state of credit markets and what they teach us about the current state of affairs. Few things are more clear throughout economic history than this: weakening credit markets reflect economic weakness, then create economic weakness. It is a vicious cycle as old as the wheel. And even the wheel probably had someone developing it on credit … Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, July 27, 2023 Jul 27, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4563eH1

As balanced as Jay Powell’s comments were yesterday in the presser following the latest and potentially last 25 bps rate hike of 2023, markets opened in rally mode taking comfort in his ‘data dependency’ rate path commitment over what could have been otherwise hawkish comments. We then got an entire slew of strong economic data around 830AM EST with durable goods orders, jobless claims, home sales, and most notably Q2 GDP coming in ahead of expectations that brought back the ole ‘good news is bad’ jitters into markets and we reversed course. Bonds sold off across the curve, but more longer than short and the yield curve steepened to -92 bps in 2/10’s. So, while stocks did put an end to a 13 day consecutive advance and the 10 YR is now flirting again with 4%, what we really saw was more support for the soft landing narrative and candidly, if this is what a recession looks like, I’ll take it. All discussed in more depth in the video podcast below, as well as a twofer in Ask David today as an added bonus. Enjoy and reach out with questions.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, July 25, 2023 Jul 25, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3rRaJTS

The Dow was up for the 12th market day in a row, the longest streak since February of 2017 … (the ancient history of 6.5 years ago, back when I was much younger).

Hong Kong and China stocks rallied hard (+4%) as Chinese leadership pledged more “support” for their property sector. What could go wrong? Some “worry” China will “succeed” in fighting their disinflation this way, and that it will leave a global economy too hot and make things harder for central banks. Some people, though, are idiots.

WTI Crude oil broke through its 200-day moving average and is now a whisker from $80.

I will be paying more attention to the threat of labor union strikes in the coming days and weeks. One strike here and one strike there (particularly in something as niche as Hollywood writers) doesn’t grab me from a purely macroeconomic sense. But four new strikes and a couple big ones (like, you know, the UAW), and I do wonder what kind of impact it may have on select companies and sectors.

Off we go …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, July 24, 2023 Jul 24, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3O7FRWJ

I am back in New York City after a few days working from my house in East Hampton and ready for a hot and humid week in the concrete jungle. Office needs and speaking engagements didn’t allow me too much time at our Hamptons home this summer but I do enjoy being here in the city even in my least favorite time of the year weather-wise (I will take the snow storm winters over the oppressive heat any day!). To see New York this crowded and normal after what I observed in the depths of COVID is a true blessing (I was here throughout summer of 2020 when it was a real ghost town). It will be a busy and lively week in our Manhattan office and I am excited.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Made in America Jul 21, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NZaBt7

Bring up the issue of “off-shoring” American manufacturing and you will get a wide variety of responses, many of them highly emotional. Today’s vernacular talks about “onshoring” or “re-shoring” or “near-shoring” – various synonyms or adjacent concepts to the idea of reversing certain trends of globalization, primarily the ones dealing with American activities in manufacturing and the supply chain.

As is the case with almost every topic I could ever address these days, the subject is complex, requires nuance, and doesn’t come close to one of the two simplistic boxes we are supposed to fit all of our thinking and analysis into. My interest in this Dividend Cafe is less political and more economic. It is less about making a statement and more about doing some analysis. It is less about finding a campaign message and more about finding an investment thesis.

So to those ends, we work. Let’s talk about expectations for America’s supply chain management in the years ahead.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, July 20, 2023 Jul 20, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44yThlA

It’s hard for contrarians to like some of the sentiment out there, with “bulls” at their highest level since April of 2021 and bears at their lowest level since June of 2021. The greed/fear index is tilted way towards the “greed” side of things and while it feels good to some, we like it the other way.

Earnings season has started off well across the market, broadly speaking, but Tesla and Netflix were the first two mega-cap “name brand” companies to buck that trend this season, getting hit hard today (though still way, way up on the year).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, July 19, 2023 Jul 19, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4796XFZ

David Bahnsen is traveling today and I, Trevor Cummings, will be filling in to provide you with the daily happenings around markets on this beautiful summer day.

The market hit a 52-week high, the Dow is on its longest win streak (8 consecutive days) since September 2019, headlines were captivated by a slew of corporate earnings reports, we have new housing starts data, and of course the best part – Ask David. Please join us for all of this and much more.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, July 18, 2023 Jul 18, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3DhRwgD

After crickets last night in futures, we opened up nicely on the day right out of the gate and continued to trade higher in both stocks and bonds throughout the entire session closing just off the highs. For all those waiting for the data or news indicating some recession shoe to drop we just aren’t seeing it and flows are quietly but steadily moving more towards risk assets with short positions covering. Its still early innings in earnings season with only about 9% of companies reporting so far, but with the majority of the largest banks out and beating expectations, a common theme: resiliency in the US consumer offsetting the negative affect of yield curve inversion on net interest margins. Also of note, high yield bond spreads are at the lowest level in over a year at 380 wide, a full 100bps lower than they were at the start of the last recession in comparison.

So there you have it, markets remain resilient, and are now up 27% from the October lows, and we continue to climb this wall of worry in another heavily doubted equity bull market. Check out the podcast video today for more color on my resiliency theme and more.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, July 17, 2023 Jul 17, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q15Bql

Economic Front

One of the economists I read every day who has been screaming non-stop for 18 months now that we are entering a recession sent a “reminder” email this morning that we are “still likely” to enter a recession. And maybe we are. First of all, broken clocks and all that stuff. But secondly, I think the question about if and when we enter a recession now misses the point. Short term, these people obviously don’t know. Additionally, no one knows what it would mean to markets if we did. No one. But longer term, we don’t need to know if there is a Q4 2023 or a Q1 2024 recession to know that we do face significant excessive indebtedness that matters for the next 10, 20, 30 years. I remain mystified by why these chicken littles can’t focus on a long term reality we do know versus a short term reality we do not.

Consumer confidence jumped to 72.6 from 64.4 last month in the latest University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey. This is the highest since September of 2021. Current conditions and expectations were both higher. Two quick caveats: (a) I have always found consumer confidence to be worthless; (2) Pre-COVID it was at 101, so putting the index in perspective, it is ahead of expectations, ahead of recent prints, and yet well below prior level.

China’s Q2 GDP growth missed expectations, coming in at +6.3% year-over-year but slowing to just 0.8% from Q1’s growth rate (which had been +2.2%(, which was a surprise. Retail sales are not huge, capex is muted (as their property sector stumbles), and youth unemployment is over 21%.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Dividend Growth Mentality Jul 14, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JYQSbA

I am writing this week’s Dividend Cafe from Reagan International Airport in Washington DC. I recorded the video and podcast from my hotel room last night. I am soon departing for Memphis, TN where I am speaking at a conference Friday and Saturday before returning to New York. I was in DC to speak to a very large group of college students at George Mason University on free market economics. I had taken the train in to DC yesterday from New York after my flight to DC on Wednesday got cancelled just minutes after speaking to a symposium in south Orange County on the ESG investing movement (you can guess what perspective I brought to the subject). I made it to that conference after having a flight from New York Monday sit on the tarmac for four hours waiting for fuel. So from New York to California back to New York to Washington DC to Memphis then back to New York again, all in six days. It’s been a week.

In the meantime, I scrapped plans for a Dividend Cafe on plans for the American supply chain and what those changes may mean for the American economy, and instead have elected to do a refresher on dividend growth. I plan to do a “dividend growth” focused Dividend Cafe once a quarter, and this seemed like a pretty good day to do it. Not to brag or anything, but I can write a Dividend Cafe about dividend growth quite intuitively (which I guess bragging about that would be like bragging about one’s speech and debate achievements in high school to the football team, which I will just anecdotally mention is not as cool a thing to do as it may sound).

Dividend growth is, after all, the very end to which we work.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, July 13, 2023 Jul 13, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Ddn2fV

Earnings season is officially underway (companies like Delta and Pepsi released today, and a slew of big banks release tomorrow).

The annual inflation rate came in yesterday at the lowest level in more than two years.

The dollar is at its lowest level (against a global basket of different currencies since April of last year.

Senator Warren is officially now yelling for Chairman Powell and the Fed to stop hiking interest rates (I have been waiting for a populist backlash; I just didn’t know if it would be from the right or the left first; now we know).

China exports fell -12.4% last month (year-over-year), with 11 months in a row of declining exports to the U.S. Hmmmmm …

Jobless claims came in at 237,000, heading south from the averages north of 250k we had been seeing!

Producer Prices are up +0.1% year-over-year. +0.1%. Zero percent inflation in wholesale prices. Now, let’s be real honest about something here. This is mostly a story of what we call “trading base effects.” Last year at this time, the YOY PPI was +11%, so that number was so silly that a year later, being up +0% is less profound than it may seem. But of course, the same was true before (only on the other side of the math), where a high YOY number was a by-product of the prior year’s price collapse. And we are supposed to do calculations off of these distortions?

But there is genuine price deflation in the producer prices (year-over-year) of processed and unprocessed core goods. Commodity prices are down. Supply chains have normalized. Wholesale prices have moderated entirely and are very likely heading lower based on manufacturing data. TIP spreads are showing implied inflation expectations of 1.95% for the next two years. Over five years, 2.19%.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, July 12, 2023 Jul 12, 2023

Although closing off the highs, stocks and bonds rallied today on cooler-than-expected CPI data, with the headline now at 3.0% year over year. With a 90% chance in fed funds futures still pointing to a 25bps rate increase in two weeks, it was as interesting to see the expectations for a rate cut pull forward from May of next year to March.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/43hXzMY

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, July 11, 2023 Jul 11, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46Mbde0

Markets today rallied even with all eyes on tomorrow’s CPI number. Three Fed governors have doubled down on the need for more rate hikes in the last 24 hours.

China is releasing a wide array of policy support measures to support its floundering property market and construction industry.

Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway has taken a 75% interest in one of the country’s major LNG export facilities (liquefied natural gas). For those keeping track, we only have seven operational facilities in the country that can currently export LNG.

There is a longer-than-normal answer in Ask David today because the question was a very thoughtful one. Check it out below!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

So Many Questions, So Much Time Jul 07, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NJ2dO3

I hope you all had a wonderful Fourth of July holiday. I love Independence Day, and I love celebrating America’s independence. I love the Declaration of Independence (and I should add, it has quite a bit of economic messaging in it). And of course, having the time to celebrate summer, family, friends, and all the traditions and customs that go with the Fourth of July is time well-spent.

I devote this week’s Dividend Cafe to your questions for us – the top inquiries, questions, and inquiries that have hit our inbox over the last week or so. The topics cover the whole gamut this week and I think you will find it fruitful and edifying.

So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe, and let’s answer your questions!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, July 6, 2023 Jul 06, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NJs88A

One of my least favorite things I see analysts do on Wall Street is take various historical incidents and attempt to extract likely future market behavior from it. “7 out of the last 9 times a team from California won the World Series, the market was up over the next 120 days” (or something like that – I made that one up to make a point; actually, that example there would be significantly more logical than some of the nonsense I routinely see).

This morning I read a report that said “nine of the last nine times the real Fed Funds rate was rising, the S&P 500 was up.” Okay, fair enough. Not super helpful predictively, though, since one only knows what the period of time the real Fed Funds rate is rising in hindsight (from a start to an end), and periods within it can be quite negative (see: 2022). But then this report went on to say: “in the 12 months following a period of a rising fed funds rate the market was up double digits four of the nine times and down in the remaining five.”

Crystal clear. Now who won the World Series last year?

The ADP jobs number came out showing explosive June private sector job creation (+497k, double expectations). Leisure and Hospitality was nearly half of that, so it does seem a bit lumpy. Of course, we also know weekly initial jobless claims have been rising, so there is a bit of a mixed bag in the labor data with the skew still being to the positive side. We shall see what the BLS report generates for June tomorrow. Bond yields went up and stock futures went down after the ADP report.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, July 5, 2023 Jul 05, 2023

Today's Post -https://bahnsen.co/3ricXf2

I am hopeful all had a wonderful Independence Day spent with family and friends in celebration of the 247th year of the greatest country to ever inhabit the Earth. The biggest news on the day was the Fed minutes that were released, indicating the rationale behind their decision to pause and hold rates steady last meeting while leaving the door open to raising again in the near future. While the decision was unanimous, the discussion revealed a debate by some on moving rates up 25 bps last week. The next FOMC meeting is out on 7/25 and 7/26, and while we do get some employment data this week, I think it will be less relevant than the consumer price data we will get a week from today that will ultimately drive their next decision on rates. It does appear the Fed is erring on the risk of recession over the risk of having to repeat the 1970s style stop and go on Fed policy. All said, it was a low-volume trading day following the holiday and the first full trading day in the second half of the year that was modestly negative in stock and bond prices throughout. All discussed and more in today's video podcast link below.

Brian Szytel

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/07/05/ups-teamsters-negotiations-end-as-strike-looms/70382580007/

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Halfway Point of 2023 Jun 30, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JFT7AK

By the time you are reading this, the first half of 2023 will be complete. I can't put exact market figures here because I am writing this middle of the market day, Thursday the 29th, so the precise finality is a day and a half away. But the general themes that made the first half of 2023 what it was are quite clear, and I think you will find this "2023 halftime report" Dividend Cafe to be quite provocative. And what else do you hope you find in the Dividend Cafe if not "provocative" ...

So let's jump into the Dividend Cafe and see what 2023 has delivered thus far and what might be on the horizon for the second half!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today Thursday, June 29, 2023 Jun 29, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3prCOAq

An upward revision in Q1 GDP fueled by stronger consumer spending and exports, jobless claims figures that came in better than expected, and a passing grade for all US banks in Fed stress test results were what fueled today’s market rally and run-up in short-term rates.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, June 28, 2023 Jun 28, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3XrRlJ6

At the ECB Forum in Sintra Portugal – Powell, Lagarde, and Baily all had hawkish comments on inflation and tighter central bank policy needed to contain it. However, all three felt that could be done without inevitably causing a recession.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, June 27, 2023 Jun 27, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3pr9HgK

So another day gone by and I don’t think the world knows much more than it has 24 hours ago about Putin and the weekend coup threat.

Natural gas prices have jumped from $2 to $2.80 BTU in just 15 days or so (+40%) and not surprisingly energy stocks with a natural gas focus have done much better than those exclusively focused on crude oil. One of the energy bear arguments seems to have really dissipated, and that was the idea that exposure to higher rates would be catastrophic for the highly levered energy sector (in 2020 it was often said that the debt cliffs these companies have would usher in a wave of bankruptcies). A new survey from the Dallas Fed of 150 oil and gas companies indicated that less than 20% see tighter credit conditions having a significant impact on their business.

New home sales were up +12.2% in May (volume) with supply down to 6.7 months (had been 7.6 months). My study is starting to indicate a worthlessness to national supply data when some markets are so substantially under-supplied and some suffering from big over-supply (making the aggregate number like the guy whose “average temperature” is found with one arm in the freezer and one in the oven). But what I would point out is that median sales prices have dropped -16.2% (for new homes) since their peak, right in the middle spot of that 10-20% drop I predicted (though this is just new homes, not existing, yet).

Seattle and San Francisco, by the way, have seen double-digit median price drops of existing homes. Hmmmmm

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, June 26, 2023 Jun 26, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NMJ3bk

Top News Stories

Friday night the absolutely fascinating news hit that a coup d’etat was underway in Russia, or at least an attempted one, with mercenary chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leading troops out of Ukraine and into a city south of Moscow with significant military headquarters for Russia. Putin, of course, called the act a treasonous betrayal and vowed revenge. As the day went on Saturday it was announced that a truce had been reached and Prigozhin had called off the march on Moscow, and would be allowed to peacefully enter Belarus. But then over the next 24 hours more and more news and analysis came that seemed to indicate that, ummmm, maybe that wasn’t going to prove an entirely safe exit plan for Prigozhin.

The entire question comes down to whether or not this indicates the beginning of the end of the Ukraine war, and it is too early to tell. If nothing else, it still indicates a vulnerability for Putin, especially if reports are true that other Russian generals and oligarchs were actually favorable (quietly or out loud) to what Prigozhin was doing. I wouldn’t read too much into kneejerk responses from anyone, but it all does seem reasonable enough to say that (a) Putin’s position seems weaker than at any time since he took power, and (b) An internal Russian move may be a more likely end to Putin and the aggression against Ukraine than anything else we have seen so far.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Impact of Debt on Growth in the Economy Jun 23, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3CKX1o6

I gave a speech this week at a large economic symposium where I am blessed to lecture every summer. My talk tackled many of the themes I write about all the time in the Dividend Cafe – the impact of excessive indebtedness on macroeconomic conditions, the comparison of pre-GFC Japan with post-GFC America, the diminishing return of fiscal and monetary policy to impact the business cycle, etc.

This week’s Dividend Cafe takes all these themes and lessons of so many Dividend Cafe bulletins and puts them together the way I presented them at my speech this week.

And most of all, I have tried to incorporate some suggestions of what could change it all – not what will change it all, but what could.

So jump on into the Dividend Cafe. From Grand Rapids, Michigan, to the Big Apple, Japanification is real. And the impact of debt on growth is the most misunderstood or ignored economic

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, June 22, 2023 Jun 22, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NqpaFA

The Bank of England surprised markets by hiking rates a half point this morning (a quarter point had been expected).

Chairman Powell did his very best in front of the House yesterday to basically swear they have more rate hikes left in them (all the while swearing they are data dependent, with the apparent contradiction between promising something six weeks in advance of the data coming in that you are promising to be led by never really being explained).

But then … Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, came out and said he believes the Fed should hold rates where they are now for the rest of the year …

So if you don’t know what the Fed will do next, join the club. The futures market is up to a 77% implied probability that the Fed will hike at the late July meeting. I remain skeptical but not adamant. And the Fed remains content with ambiguity and public mixed messaging, with “trial ballooning” apparently a new policy tool in the toolbox.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, June 21, 2023 Jun 21, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JpMzpy

Brian Szytel here with you today, kicking off the first day of Summer with just what I know you all used to look forward to as kids – discussion on the days market action, Fed comments, and inflation. Not to worry, I won’t let you hit your Summer vacations uniformed with all thoroughly discussed in today’s podcast and video.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, June 20, 2023 Jun 20, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JpIamG

Greetings from Grand Rapids, Michigan where I spoke at a large economics symposium today, and where I will be for the next couple of days before returning to NYC on Friday. As is my intention on most weeks with a Monday market holiday, this Tuesday DC Today is basically being done with the old school “Monday style.”

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Housing: Culture and Economics Together Jun 16, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4301I8h

We have had a lot to say about housing here in the Dividend Cafe over the years, most recently here with a broad update of projections for supply, demand, and pricing, and more philosophically, last year’s bulletin here that aimed to provide a bigger picture perspective on how to think about it all. I was and am proud of both issues of the Dividend Cafe and the message embedded therein. Housing is a big part of the U.S. economy, where we live is a big part of our lives, and what it costs us is a big part of our monthly pocketbook.

Yet today’s Dividend Cafe is a little different. Not only am I not offering a forecast today as to whether or not median home prices will drop -9% from here or go up +5% or some other irrelevant nonsense, I also am not speaking to some macroeconomic ramifications of housing the way many pundits do (this many construction jobs will be added or lost, or this increase or decrease will take place in spending at the Home Depots and Lowes of our economy, blah blah blah). I do happen to think most of those discussion items are silly, misguided, and misunderstood, but that is not why I am ignoring them today. Besides them being bad questions, and impossible to answer, I also have a different focus that is more important to our lives and well-being.

Today I want to dig into the single biggest reality of housing that no one seems interested in talking about – and that is the cultural implications of how we have re-framed our view of residential real estate over the years. Some may prefer a discussion to the latest projections around the rocket science that is “home flipping,” but I believe our angle today is the lowest hanging fruit of how we ought to think about this subject. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, June 15, 2023 Jun 15, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42KWXyW

Markets rallied some more today as bond yields dropped further even though the curve inverted more (as long-dated yields dropped more than short-dated). The odds for a hike at the next meeting (which is six weeks away, I should point out) moved to 67% for a 25-basis point hike and 33% for no move again. Odds are evenly split that by the end of the year we will either be at the current level or lower, versus a further hike.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, June 14, 2023 Jun 14, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/467JeWa

Brian Szytel here with you on today’s highly anticipated Fed Day. After 10 back-to-back rate increases from the Fed over the past year and a half where they raised short-term rates from 0% to just over 5% the Fed today paused (not necessarily ended) their rate tightening campaign with a ‘wait and see’ message on how their policy changes which operate with a lag will further affect the economy before their next meeting in July. The hawkish language in the statement and in the press conference afterward however left the door wide open for further rate increases should the data warrant. Main takeaways here:

The median forecast for terminal Fed funds in the Fed dot plots was raised to 5.6% by the end of this year, 4.6% by the end of 2024, and 3.2% by the end of 2025. Only two committee members saw the current rate as appropriate, with all remaining 16 members supporting further 25 bps rate increases before the end of the year, nine of which saw two more 25 bps hikes. GDP estimate was revised UP to 1% from .4%. The unemployment estimate was revised DOWN to 4.1% from 4.5%.

At the end of the day, 1. actions speak louder than words and I think they want to be done and 2. the economic outlook on growth and employment was upgraded not downgraded. Markets had been slightly positive most of the trading day (other than the DOW that was dragged down by just one price-weighted stock), then initially sold off over 400 points following the statement with yields rising, only then to normalize into the close. Wash, rinse, and repeat on almost every Fed day. I unpack all the nuance and what to make of it all in markets in greater detail in the video podcast link below.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, June 13, 2023 Jun 13, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3N5Vy0n

So the month of May CPI report came out this morning, and xxxxxxx

Those who continue to be “frustrated” by the reasonable resilience of the economy in the face of the Fed’s desire to break it are up against a few different things.

(1) The utter weirdness of believing an economy must be broken to beat inflation. It is not true, and it has never been true.

(2) The extent to which many corporate borrowers (both high yield and investment grade) extended the maturities of their borrowings during the COVID zero-interest rate period. This means companies are not impacted by higher rates where they don’t have loans resetting at higher rates. Of course, this is not true for all but it has been true for many.

(3) How incredibly unnecessary it is to use high rates to defeat inflation when monetary policy was not the primary cause of the inflation to begin with. The issues that primarily caused the inflation of 2021/22 were rectified in the natural course of events (supply chain, labor shortage, reopening, etc.) and no the cause and effect mechanisms are all off in the way the Fed is approaching this.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, June 12, 2023 Jun 12, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3N1hlWQ

Futures opened flat last night and stayed flat throughout the night up until my early morning wake-up. They inched higher in the hours before the opening.
The market opened up over +100 points and stayed up through most of the day, closing near a high
The Dow closed up +190 points (+0.56%) with the S&P 500 up +0.94% and the Nasdaq +1.53%.
There are now less than 3,000 companies active and trading in U.S. public markets, versus almost 10,000 that are backed by private equity, and nearly 40,000 backed by venture capital. There are 32 million small/mid/family businesses. Naturally, the 3,000 public companies are what the media focuses on as a bellwether of the U.S. economy.
A great call we made in 2020 was a huge boom of M&A that would come out of the low-rate and post-COVID moment. Low rates were an economic argument; the post-COVID observation was sociological (many deals got done or accelerated behind newfound catalysts). That pushed up the values of investment banks, private equity shops, private lenders, and others in the advice chain of this financial ecosystem. Massive M&A peaked 18 months ago, re-pricings have taken place, and in the ebb and flow of the M&A world we would not be surprised to see a new era of financial activity take place on the other side of this.
The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.73%, down one basis point on the day
Top-performing sector for the day: Technology (+2.07%)
Bottom-performing sector for the day: Energy (-0.97%)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Letter to a High School Graduate Jun 09, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42yYfgC

This was a big week in the Bahnsen household, but really for many families all over the country. Joleen and I celebrated the graduation from high school of our firstborn son, Mitchell. Many of you likely had kids, grandkids, and loved ones celebrate some graduation as well (college or high school). They are all special and memorable, and if you suffer from the same chronic nostalgia syndrome that I do, maybe these events bring back memories of your own graduation. I believe some of the emotion this week was not just in seeing our own firstborn celebrate this milestone but also in the gratitude I have for the high school he attended, a passion project of mine for the last ten years. A lot more has gone into this week than meets the eye, and I feel truly blessed.

Today so many young people enter adulthood with a sense of pessimism, gloom, and uncertainty. There is often widespread financial ignorance as to “how to be,” and there is almost always an underlying negativity about the economic trajectory of our communities, or country, or even the world. The positive of high school graduation can be met with the daunting challenges of adult life in the category of finance, vocation, and economics.

I want to devote this week’s Dividend Cafe to that young man or woman leaving high school or college, ready to start adult life. I imagine there will be some takeaways that seem relevant to all readers. But my special focus is on those entering adult life looking for some broad, practical takeaways about finance and economics. Our entry into adulthood is hard enough as it is – there is no reason to make it harder with a stunted worldview on such an important part of human life.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, June 8, 2023 Jun 08, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3WZi5jG

It has not been a great week for global bonds with extra rate hikes as of late in Canada and Australia as of late and a re-pricing of Fed expectations here in the U.S. has kept bond yields on the short end of the curve higher, and even flattened the curve a tad with longer-dated yields coming up.

We are still sitting at just a 74% chance of a pause in Fed action next week (in the futures market), meaning there is a 26% chance of another quarter-point hike. But there is a 64% chance of a rate hike in July …

In the meantime, jobless claims flew up to 261,000 this week from just 233,000 last week, a large and unexpected move that we will need until next week to see if it is just noise this week or the start of something more substantial.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, June 7, 2023 Jun 07, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Joqzf1

Big rally in Energy and Real Estate today even as other markets stalled and reversed.

The media world went into a trance this morning before the market opened on the news that CNN’s CEO, Chris Licht, had been fired. Though not much of a market story, it distracted everyone for the day and allowed it to be a mostly boring day in the world of financial media.

As expected, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Doug Burgum (billionaire Governor of North Dakota) have all entered the Presidential race this week, vying for the Republican nomination. Add them to the list that includes Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis as top candidates and then Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, and you have basically 7-10 total candidates, two of which poll high, three of which poll a little, and the rest of which poll basically not at all. It’s going to be a wild summer. And I am sure at some point, I will have to talk about it more in terms of policy and market implications, but we are nowhere near that point yet. For now, my forecasts are rather simple: I am dubious that Joe Biden will end up being the Democrat nominee; I am highly dubious that former President Trump can win a general election; and I believe there is a candidate or two who could beat President Trump for the Republican nomination, but am as unsure as anyone else as to whether or not that will happen. There are so many wildcards out there right now; predictions are a fool’s errand.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, June 6, 2023 Jun 06, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3X7RBwR

A flattish day in markets but a big rally in Financials …

The SEC is suing Coinbase, the major publicly traded exchange for cryptocurrency, for violating securities laws and defying regulatory requirements. This company is down -80% in value from its high, and now there exists an investigation or active charges with every major crypto exchange firm.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, June 5, 2023 Jun 05, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3qnOZyl

Ask David

“With regards to the debt ceiling compromise, you point out that it suspends the debt ceiling entirely through the end of 2024. What I do not exactly understand is if the spending growth has been capped, then why would an increase in the debt ceiling be needed at all? ~ Mark

The part you’re missing is revenue. We can reasonably know what expenses will be now, and they will be reasonably limited. So yes, that should take the need for much borrowing above a given ceiling off the table. But revenue is a big variable, and especially in a deeper recession, it can drop well below the expenditure line, enhancing the need for deficit borrowing.

The variability of revenue is massive. Think of a 1% drop in the total GDP of the economy. Then think of an average drop of revenue as a % of GDP of 2-4% per recession.

So $24 trillion GDP goes to $23.75 trillion, and then the tax receipts go from 19% of 24tn to 16% of 23.75tn – essentially, lost revenues of roughly $750 billion. That could add 50-75% to the deficit and would be funded with debt issuance.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Japan and Us Jun 02, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3qmaIH8

For a long time there was only one country on earth dealing with a bubble that had burst, spending way more than it was bringing in, seeing revenues decrease, juggling banks that weren’t actually solvent, and running extreme monetary policy to try and keep all the holes in the dam from bursting. That country was Japan in the 1990’s and into the next decade. For over 30 years now they have favored radical fiscal and monetary policy as a means of dealing with their economic woes, and the result has been well-documented in these pages of Dividend Cafe.

The balanced budgets and high real GDP growth rates of the American economy in the 1990’s went away when our own credit bubble burst in 2008. Asset prices fell, deficits exploded, and the Fed played pharmacist to it all, providing ample medicine to make it all feel better as we muddled through.

Japan now has ample company to the fundamental shared sickness of “excessive indebtedness.” Across the developed world those Japan-like characteristics of high debt, muted growth, and monetary discretion are now par for the course (see: America, Europe).

Today we’re going to look at a few things with Japan and see if we can’t learn a little about the future state of the American economy and policy. It is one thing to refuse to learn from the past. It is another thing all together to not even learn from the present.

Let’s jump in to the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, June 1, 2023 Jun 01, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3C3vY77

As expected, the House passed the McCarthy-Biden debt ceiling bill, and the Senate will do their part by this weekend. The bill passed by a vote of 314-117, quite the nail-biter, with 165 Democrats voting yes and 149 Republicans voting yes.

This allows us to now change our focus to the next end-of-the-world moment. Do not fear – it will not take long – a new culprit for the cause of Armageddon will arrive shortly. And the media will be ready to tell you what it is.

Futures are now at a 78% chance of a Fed Rate pause at the June 14 meeting (it was less than 40% just two days ago). Several Fed officials have come out jawboning the idea of a pause. I think there is almost a 0% chance that these Fed officials making public comments to this effect do not mirror the view of Chairman Powell himself.

The world’s largest chipmaker most connected to Artificial Intelligence is trading at a mere 197x earnings now, which is just the bargain basement level of 23x gross sales. It is sort of surreal to see this kind of excess and froth just a year after all these other shiny objects got taken to the woodshed. Human nature is immutable. C3.ai, a leading artificial intelligence software firm, is down -30% in the last 24 hours as numbers came in vastly below expectations. I bring this up because they are all over the news since, well, they lose $260 million per year on gross sales of $266 million per year. That negative -98% margin being attached to a $6 billion market cap is, shall we say, a sign of the times.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, May 31, 2023 May 31, 2023

Today's Post -

The debt ceiling bill has gotten through the House Rules Committee and it appears nearly certain that the House will have the votes tonight for passage. What happened here proved to be even less dramatic than I predicted, and I was predicting that the media posture here was recklessly and shamefully melodramatic. I promise you this, though – no one will learn anything, and everyone will take the bait again next time, too.

Media reports that some hardliners on the right were going to look to oust Speaker McCarthy over this bill were, well, totally untrue.

One of the big themes in the market right now is the relative weakness of defensive sectors like Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities. And for a contrarian like me, it makes me like them even more. The momentum is in one very narrow space right now. That boat has a capsize risk in front of it as 2023 progresses. In the meantime, 4% of the large cap universe is at a relative high right now, while 25% is at a relative low. Weird wacky stuff.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, May 30, 2023 May 30, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3qlozNA

“I agree with you overall concerning shareholder vs. stakeholder priorities in a company’s motivations.

It did occur to me, however, that often the bad behavior examples provided by the advocates of the stakeholder paradigm don’t really involve a company acting in the best interests of shareholders, but rather having a near-sighted, excessively short-term focus on quick returns at the expense of sustained gains.

My question is how in a dividend-growth framework you and your team balance the near- and far-term in a company’s approach in such a way as to genuinely promote the interests of the shareholder.”

~ Jeff M.

But of course here is the exact point – no system of investing I have encountered seems to directly and specifically focus on long-term decision making vs. short-term noise more than dividend growth! If the entire focus is on long-term sustainability of growing cash flow, various quarterly efforts at “quick returns at the expense of sustained gains” can’t possibly be tolerated. They are disqualifiers. Now, how much companies really do that is another story, but the point is the qualitative and quantitative criteria for stellar dividend growth companies are the very things that call for long term prudent actions versus short term myopia. I cannot say this enough: Dividend growth over time is both the signifier and the consequence of a well-run business.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, May 25, 2023 May 25, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/45JhuqH

The debt ceiling discussions advanced today though no final deal was struck. The adjectives and nouns across the headlines refer to “fresh urgency,” and “potential default,” and “sensitive phase”.

The Fed seems to be telegraphing a “pause” at the next meeting … The new language being thrown out is whether or not they are “pausing” or “skipping.”

The Artificial Intelligence space is rallying like crazy as one of the good companies that make money reported a huge quarter, which naturally led to a big rally in the bad companies that don’t make money …

One year ago today, the market closed 32,637. Today it closed 32,765 – up 0.39% in one year.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

To Engage or not Engage May 26, 2023

Today's Post -

We live in interesting times. Is that fair to say? Does anyone disagree with that? I didn’t think so. Now, I didn’t say, “We live in unprecedented times.” I think there are a lot of reasons to barely ever say that (Ecclesiastes 1:9 is a good place to start). I certainly understand that some things seem unprecedented, and many times the particular manifestation of something may be unprecedented. But honestly, most of the time, people say something is “unprecedented,” they are just a person who does not value the study of history very much.

I value history a lot. I believe in almost all disciplines, a better understanding of history is needed for a better understanding of the present and to be prepared for the future. Current social unrest is not unprecedented. Neither is political tribalization. Neither are class divisions or any of the many other things adding to societal angst. It is somewhat arrogant to believe we are the first people in the first time in history to experience a certain thing.

So I prefer the word “interesting” to “unprecedented.” And one of the things most “interesting” right now is the state of corporate America. For some, corporate America is not doing enough to save the environment or participate in various social or political causes. For others, they have stepped knee-deep into a political and cultural agenda that is detrimental to their well-being as a company.

Today I want to talk about the concept of shareholder engagement, what it means, what it ought to mean, and what The Bahnsen Group is doing in this regard. You may find it not political or audacious enough. You may find it too opinionated. You may find it outside the core of investment advice. You may find it the heart of investment advice.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, May 24, 2023 May 24, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Mxdgto

While everyone tosses and turns about the debt ceiling debate in Washington, I want to remind everyone what is the real scenario playing out in the economy. The Fed’s tightening may or may not “succeed” in their mission to destroy those inflation-creating jobs (their words, not mine), but it certainly will succeed (and has already) in tightening credit. Essentially a trillion dollars leaving the banking system is a lot less monetary base for lending. Funding costs for banks are much higher. And overall bank lending is collapsing. These things are all known.

Now, one can argue much of it is priced in. And one can certainly debate if it leads to a deep recession, or a shallow one, or a soft landing, or my own hypothesis, a more “narrow, targeted” recession, but it is the issue in front of us. What ends up being the impact across the broad economy and to corporate profits of the inevitable decline in credit as a result of this financial tightening? And then, of course, how does the Fed handle their inevitable back-peddling of the mess they create? It’s all so weird to watch play out.

The impact of tightening credit – the variables around that will be real in six months. Almost nothing anyone else is talking about right now will be. Food for thought.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, May 23, 2023 May 23, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/41Xc7Rq

The drama in Washington is supposed to be all the rage and I am torn because I do know it is the primary mover in minute-by-minute market fluctuations, and I also know it may be what readers most want to know about (adding to the burden to write about it here, which is the purpose of DC Today), and yet the whole thing annoys me so much I wish I had the option of a protest abstention. But I don’t.

As of press time today the basic update is that talks are dragging on and this is somehow news. Both sides continue to say “default is off the table.” The press is acting more recklessly than I expected them to, and I expected full-blown beclowning. It is really hard for them to perform worse than I thought, and they are.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, May 22, 2023 May 22, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Mz8Q5k

All eyes are on the talks between Speaker McCarthy and President Biden regarding the debt ceiling and what negotiated bill may or may not be possible. They met earlier today and re-convene this evening.

Over the weekend, President Biden said they were considering invoking the 14th amendment to declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional, something he previously said was a non-option. Most pundits do not believe it will go there, and if it were to, the Supreme Court would certainly have to take it up immediately with almost no chance of the court ruling with the White House.

Discretionary spending caps are reportedly the new sticking point, which is just dumbfounding to me.

(00:00) Introduction (00:45) Markets Today (02:00) Is it Sustainable?

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Banking Solution in Front of Us May 19, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/458Bjr7

Everybody is aware of the challenges that have surfaced in regional banks this year and the fears that such problems will become more contagious in other banks as well (other regionals, smaller banks, community banks, etc.). I am not sure that the reasons for the challenges are fully understood, and that is partially because, in the immediate aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank failure, some may have been quick to find a simplistic explanation that confirmed their priors as opposed to the more nuanced and multi-faceted explanations that were probably more accurate and helpful.

Regardless of how the three bank failures of 2023 came to be and how people have thought about or processed those failures since they occurred, there are forward-looking questions that many are asking. The answers to these questions have ramifications for three different categories of economic actors. And those three categories around the future of banks, systemic risk, and general real estate investing in our country (amongst other things) are the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe.

If you aren’t tantalized yet, you will be. Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, May 18, 2023 May 18, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42OsEsd

Welcome to DC Today, I am Trevor Cummings filling in for David Bahnsen.

Today we have an update on unemployment claims, existing home sales, daily market moves, and even Donald Trump shows up in today’s Ask David.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, May 17, 2023 May 17, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3OnePfQ

So markets rallied hard today as both sides in this Biden/McCarthy negotiation assured listeners that a default won’t happen. Here’s the lay of the land in the debt ceiling debate:

It is fair to say “deadlines” thrown out for various actors in this are more bark than bite – negotiating tactics and all that stuff.

No one can really say when they have to start prioritizing payments because they don’t know what exactly June 15 tax receipts will look like. There will be lots of “rounds” in this negotiating process The White House largely believes it is more to their political benefit to be seen as getting a deal done than to be seen as fighting with the Republicans Noise is not material to a portfolio. One need not know what happens between now and whatever the X date is to know that on the other side of the X date, it will be like this noise never happened. For us contrarians, it is worth noting that cash levels are now the highest they have been all year and bond allocations are the highest they have been since 2009. And the recent Bank of America survey had money managers the most pessimistic as they have been all year. Keep this up, and we may end up seeing a full-blown boost of economic expansion … =)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, May 16, 2023 May 16, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3IgucD9

All eyes were on the White House today as debt ceiling talks continued. The report after talks ended today that “no deal has yet been reached” was, ummm, not a story. I remain skeptical that a real deal gets done before there is a real deadline and moment of hysteria, but I do still believe these talks set the foundation for what that eventual deal will, in fact, be. The word that the White House is willing to accept discretionary spending caps, clawing back unspent COVID dollars, and work requirements for some social safety net programs, if true, does seem to me to mean a deal will likely, in the end, get done. But there is a lot of wood to chop, as the great Rene Aninao likes to say.

As for all that recession talk, estimates are still for a slightly up quarter in terms of real GDP growth for Q2, but with Q3 and Q4 being the likely entry period for GDP contraction.

Chapter 11 bankruptcies were up +43% in Q1 versus Q1 of last year. Now, bankruptcies a year ago were down -32% from the year prior, so there was clearly a low base effect going on. But overall, I do believe we are seeing increasing problems surface in small businesses where access to funding is becoming an issue.

With all the talk about the U.S. dollar year-to-date, I thought it worth pointing out that while the Euro is up a whopping +1.8% YTD to the dollar on the year, and the sterling pound is up +4% to the dollar, the U.S. dollar is actually up versus Chinese renminbi, Yen, South Korean Won, South African Rand, and Australian dollar. In other words, people have no idea what they are talking about.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, May 15, 2023 May 15, 2023

Debt ceiling talk and other cool things today in the special Monday edition of DC Today …

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3o2Wdad

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Lay of the Land May 12, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ptUr29

We are going to do something a little different today in the Dividend Cafe, or at least different from what I normally like to do. While “current conditions” are less interesting to me in the Dividend Cafe, various macro themes and long-term trends represent the focus of this weekly missive. That said, every now and then, the news cycle and state of affairs in financial markets warrant a little “refresher,” and that is what today’s Dividend Cafe will be.

Come for the debt ceiling talk; stay for the first principles. Perk up your ears around election talk; tune in (or out) on recession chatter. We have all the things today – even the things I hate talking about most. It’s a “lay of the land” Dividend Cafe … Jump on in!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, May 11, 2023 May 11, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3MjilGN

The Ask David is so long below I will put most of the writing attention on that today (see below). Interest rates all dropping and fed rate expectations in the futures markets strike me as the major market story of the day (and week). And seeing bond yields collapse on the front end of the curve in perfect concert with the media wailing over imminent debt default is, well, a perfect encapsulation of everything. People are paying higher prices and accepting lower yields for something about to default, eh? Okay.

Off we go …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, May 10, 2023 May 10, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44MFjx8

So the CPI today came in today at 4.9% year-over-year, the lowest we have seen now since April of 2021. 5% had been expected so it is another month of slightly lower than expected year-over-year movement. And yet …

Shelter is showing an +8.1% year-over-year price inflation still now in April. Yep. +8.1%. So, at the 34% weighting you can surmise that 2.75% of the inflation is, well, poppycock. That puts the actual present CPI somewhere between 2% and 2.5% which last time I checked is the Fed’s target.

Used car prices are down -6.6% on the year (deflation). Gas utilities are down -2.1%. Medical care was only up +0.4% on the year. Food and transportation, though, are still showing higher annualized price increases.

It is interesting to hear people talk about a slowing job market as Job Openings (JOLTS) started the year at 11.2 million and are now at 9.6 million. I am not sure I have ever heard nearly 10 million unfilled job openings described as a “slowdown” before, but you do you boo. Now, the CEO of ZipRecruiter did come out and say, “demand for recruiting services is declining” – which may mean things are slowing down (and also may mean hiring is so easy right now less people feel the need to use recruiters, but I digress). I do think there is no question that companies are paring back new hires, but I also think some industries (see: tech) were way, way, way over-hired. Bottom line, I don’t see anything contradictory (or complicated, for that matter) about saying these two things at once – (1) The job market is good; (2) It may be headed towards “less good” than it has been.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, May 9, 2023 May 09, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42ACgWM

The total amount of commercial bank deposits that have left the banking system since the Fed began hiking rates is now just shy of $1.1 trillion. Money market mutual funds have taken in $751 billion.

Of the total aggregate move higher in the S&P 500 so far this year, 93.5% of it has come from the 20 largest companies in the index, with 6.5% coming from the remaining 480 companies. This is not the stuff sustainable market moves are built on.

CPI comes tomorrow along with more hand-wringing on the debt ceiling. Good times …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, May 8, 2023 May 08, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3HL0cPd

There are reports about the White House being open to a short-term debt ceiling increase, and I actually don’t doubt the White House would do that, or even that they may be willing to give up some energy permitting reform as a trade-off to getting that done. What I am skeptical about is whether or not the Republicans would agree to that (it is possible, but not assured) and then whether or not Democrats would agree to the energy side of that (I consider that improbable). We shall see.

43 Senate Republicans signed a letter over the weekend supporting the House measure for some spending restraints tied to a debt ceiling hike, so even apart from House blockage, if a clean hike is put forward, it faces a filibuster in the Senate. More and more Democrats are wanting some negotiations to take place. A lot of eyes are on what may or may not happen with FDIC coverage in light of the current regional bank saga:

Congress sets the statutory limit on FDIC deposit coverage, not the executive branch and not the FDIC itself. The key word here is “statutory.” There is not a lot of Congressional momentum for broadly increasing FDIC limits, though there probably would be if some legislation came forward with nuances (i.e., company payroll accounts, etc.) The FDIC has the authority to name a bank a “systemic risk” and therefore ensure all of its deposits (as they recently did with Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank two months ago, but did not need to do with the First Republic since JP Morgan took over)

“Big” banks already have systemic risk classifications (and received various increased regulations out of the Dodd-Frank legislation because of the SIFI classification). The aforementioned labeling of SVB and Signature as “systemic risks” happened ad hoc

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The American Economy in Real Life May 05, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3VABmav

I think this is a good week to do something many people will not be expecting. I don't do clickbait, and I loathe the sensationalism of most financial writers. But because most financial writers make their living writing about finances and I make my living managing real finances, I have never been captive to the sensational. I can just call balls and strikes, be my authentic self, and share a point of view that I believe is rooted in truth and cogent thought. I can be wrong, but I am not ever melodramatic.

So when I say this week's Dividend Cafe may be unexpected, it is more about the sentiment and buzz in the air these days, not about me or any "shock and awe" I am going to deliver. And in fact, the surprise may take the opposite shape of what you expect.

So jump on into the Dividend Cafe, and let's look at the shockingly unexpected news that, wait for it - the American economy has not been the dystopian nightmare many have assumed it to be.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, May 4, 2023 May 04, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3VGvMUb

A huge theme right now in market punditry is that small caps are under-performing big caps, and that this speaks more to macroeconomic reality than the fact that big-cap companies have mostly hung in there. As the reasoning goes, small-cap companies are more dependent on banks and financing and credit conditions and so struggle more than large-cap names in periods of fed tightening or bank distress. Of course, the corollary to this is that small caps underperforming going into a recession has always led to small caps out-performing coming out of a recession, but all of this is much more useful in hindsight than foresight.

But I would say that I think small caps lagging large caps in periods like this is less related to credit conditions and more related to economic growth. Small cap names in the public sector are more tethered to revenue growth than big cap names, as big cap names have far more control over margins than small cap names do. Revenue is the most tethered to economic growth, and small cap names are more tethered to revenue. If we could look at an index of non-public small businesses, I would imagine it would reflect far more reliance on credit conditions (and of course, the economic cycle), but alas, such an index of non-public small businesses does not exist. But within the universe of publicly traded small cap names, my operating thesis is that revenue growth follows economic growth and big-cap names have more levers at their disposal to squeeze earnings out of slowing revenues than small cap names do.

I have no idea when the cycle bottoms and when it turns, but I do know small-cap’s valuation relative to big-cap is looking quite interesting right about now. Take it for what it is worth.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, May 3, 2023 May 03, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42hbBOA

So the Fed today raised rates a quarter point as expected, now to a range of 5%-5.25%. They indicated a “wait and see” approach about the next meeting though futures right now reflect a 91% implied probability that they are done raising rates. The language change of their statement implies that this is correct – this time, they are really done.

TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, May 2, 2023 May 02, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LLhr5A

Regional banks were hammered today as clearly, the fear is contagious at this time, with some major regionals down -15%, -28%, and even others still down -9% to -12%. Short selling has picked up substantially in this space, so there is a need to watch it rationally and not technically. The basic criteria for them to look for are easy – high amounts of low-rate mortgages on the books, a big gap between mark-to-market values and posted values of the bank’s assets, and the existence of commercial real estate.

The average 3-month CD rate of a bank with $10-50 billion in deposits has gone UP by 0.24% since Silicon Valley Bank failed. The average 3-month CD rate of a bank with over $250 billion in deposits has gone DOWN by 0.36%. This is basically the story of what has gone on – a 60 basis point competitive disadvantage for small banks versus big banks in less than two months.

So that the Fed would be looking to hike rates in this environment is an act of sheer ignorance, and some may say malice. More on that tomorrow.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, May 1, 2023 May 01, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/419OGnL

The big news of the week has been First Republic Bank’s fate, which at midnight last night was still up in the air. By 3:30 am ET, the situation was clarified in the newswires – First Republic was put into FDIC receivership, and the FDIC was concurrently entering a purchase and assumption agreement with JP Morgan. All 84 offices of First Republic Bank in all eight states they are present will open as branches of JP Morgan immediately. JP Morgan has assumed all deposits and essentially all assets. Banking customers retain FDIC protection, and JP Morgan backs uninsured deposit levels effective immediately. Customers do not need to do or change anything to have all this affected. This covers $229 billion in assets and $104 billion in deposits. JP Morgan and the FDIC have entered into a loss-share agreement on the residential and commercial loans of First Republic, and the FDIC estimates it will lose a total of $13 billion in all of this.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

No Free Lunch with Interest Rates Apr 28, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ncX8V7

The subject of bank stability has really been a big conversation topic since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank back in mid-March. People have wondered who was to blame, what went wrong, what could have been different, and what else is still going to happen that we may not know about.

I have written in these pages already about Sunday afternoon dramas and the market instabilities that generally create such events. Notice how I worded that, for it was intentional. Sunday afternoon dramas do not create market instabilities; market instabilities create Sunday afternoon dramas. And as we navigate through a change in the present financial cycle, a little perspective is warranted on what has been driving financial cycles. In fact, if we do this well we may just understand not only how this fits into Sunday afternoon dramas and the broad reality of market disruption risk; we may also understand a lot more about the federal reserve, interest rates, and basic financial behavior.

So let's jump into the Dividend Cafe ...

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today -Thursday April 27, 2023 Apr 27, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3oR1amD

Rally day and then some as earnings continue to outperform expectations. Add that to a weaker-than-expected economy (because everyone knows bad news is really good news in Fed-bizarro land), and voila – the Dow goes up over +500 points.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday April 26, 2023 Apr 26, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3V6B23f

The House Rules Committee voted at 2:20 am to send the House spending legislation to the floor for a vote, implying that Speaker McCarthy has the 218 votes needed to pass a debt ceiling increase that also cuts $4 trillion from government spending over the next ten years. We watch and wait.

The Fed Funds Futures have come down to a 77% implied probability of a quarter-point rate hike next week (it had been 93% a couple of days ago). That’s still pretty high and still pretty close to a “sure thing,” but maybe if the First Republic Banks continue that you see in the news, it won’t be a sure thing.

That issue is the primary driver of markets right now, today even outweighing what was a pretty solid beat from some big tech companies.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, April 25, 2023 Apr 25, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LESWXT

It was sell-off mode today in stocks, with the Dow down -1% and the Nasdaq down -2%, yet it really was the -50% drop today in First Republic stock that seems to be the catalyst for the market turmoil (the drop lower in the broad market that accelerated around 10:00 am PT was just minutes after the acceleration of sell-off in First Republic). Of course, the challenging news there was known all afternoon and night yesterday and all morning today, so it was really a mid-day realization that those problems are not going to be easily resolved (selling assets and raising new equity), and then the broad market has to digest that spill-over effects that could create.

Lots more earnings news to come this week.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, April 24, 2023 Apr 24, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3oDNT0y

Earnings season is off and running and, so far, looks pretty good (or at least not that bad). But it is really early, and the heart of earnings season will be this coming week and next week, and we will keep you posted each step of the way.

Dividend Café took a real look inside the inflation story of the last couple of years, particularly the lag effect of shelter. But it did so not merely in how it overstates the CPI now but how it understated it in 2021.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today -Thursday April 20, 2023 Apr 20, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3mP5Ad0

The talk is warming up for the debt ceiling debate to become a major market story for a time. As I was writing months ago, there is no leverage for the Republican House if they don’t first pass their own debt ceiling bill (essentially, a bill they actually pass with 218 or more votes that does raise the debt ceiling but gives House Republicans what they want by way of spending cuts). It is what John Boehner first did in 2011 that then forced the Obama administration to have to take a stance against it, and then ultimately pushed that stand-off to the point of the “sequester” where hundreds of billions of dollars came out of the deficit. In this case, I (a) Do not know if Speaker McCarthy will get his 218 votes, (b) Do know that the Biden administration will oppose whatever that is, and (c) Do not know what the twists and turns will be when they find themselves at their version of a “Boehner-Obama” stand-off. I only know this: Without “A” – there is no “B” or “C.” So we shall see if the House GOP can pass a bill and then take it from there. A debt ceiling lift that comes with the spending cuts they want does force the White House into a tougher political play (they can’t see the Republicans are forcing the government to default if the House has actually passed a bill to not do so). But these things have a way of moving and shaking quite a bit before we get to the end, and I can promise you media coverage of it all is going to be … unhelpful.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Inflation Then and Now, or: The 'Where Were You' Accusation Apr 21, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40qjm3u

I enjoyed a wonderful dinner with my long-time friend, John Mauldin, last week, and something we discussed is going to be the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe.

John is one of the most well-known newsletter writers in our industry, and I have been reading him every single week – no exceptions – for 23 years. Around ten years ago, after a shared CNBC appearance, he and I became friends and quickly connected the dots that John actually knew my late father and even published some of his writings back in the early 1980s. A small world, indeed. Well, since then, John and I developed a friendship of our own, I am a regular speaker and panelist at his annual Strategic Investment Conference, and we are known to do dinners together that can last for four hours, with all aspects of the economy, the market, the Fed, and the American political system on the table for discussion.

At this dinner event last week, John brought something up that inspired me for this week’s Dividend Cafe. You will not be surprised to hear that it is going to involve the Fed, inflation, and all the adjacent topics that so energetically fill the pages of Dividend Cafe quite often.

So jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday April 19, 2023 Apr 19, 2023

Today's Post -

Day-to-day bond volatility continues to be quite elevated, and very few are really talking about it. I believe as QT inevitably moves to QE (or at least non-QT), you will see bond volatility come down. Equity volatility already has. 80% of days in January were up or down > 1%, 74% in February, 65% in March, and just 36% so far in April. Hmmmm …

I have spoken a lot lately about the American consumer slowing down only when they lose access to credit. Until then, spend spend spend (in fact, the predominant economic philosophy of American policy for the last 75 years has actually sought to intellectually codify this behavior as our patriotic duty). Revolving credit right now is 6.2% of disposable income, not even up to the 6.6% average it was for the last ten years, let alone near the 9% level it averaged in the decade up to the financial crisis. All that to say – debt levels for consumers seem high; debt levels as a percentage of income are not. So my expectation is … spend, spend, spend.

Beware of people who tell you, “The consumer is about to crash and burn,” when they have been saying that over and over and over and over again for years. There is an incorrigibility to perma-bears that can only be called dishonest if we don’t see it all for what it is.

Also, who cares if people spend a little less and save a little more? Do you really, actually, seriously think that would be a bad thing? Come on.

Anyways, another pretty boring day in markets and all the recap is below, along with a great question on commercial real estate and the banking sector.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, April 18, 2023 Apr 18, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40eo9VP

I would say, at this point, the market is definitely pricing in yet another rate hike at the next FOMC meeting two weeks from today (futures are up to 87% implied odds). Markets obviously haven’t cared much. Bond yields today didn’t move a lot. Sometimes you have to report what is and not what ought to be, and sometimes what is or what will be is different than what is or what appeared to be just two weeks sooner. Nevertheless, I take it not merely as the Fed likely hiking one more quarter-point in May but the Fed likely cutting more aggressively when they swing the pendulum back the other way. I don’t like any of it, to be honest.

The spread between BBB’s and BB’s (low-end investment grade and high-end junk bonds) is a mere 150 basis points – well below the 200 basis points, we have seen a few times in recent months when it looks like credit is about to weaken. Corporate credit has hung in there remarkably well throughout this cycle, for now, despite all the recession talks and doom and gloom of Fed tightening. It almost feels like the Fed can’t be satisfied until they break corporate credit, only, when they do (if they do?), they then will feel like they have to immediately put it back together again, but they can’t put it back together again if they don’t break it first, and I have the distinct impression that is frustrating them.

As for what to like within markets, we like dividend growth stocks, always and forever (surprise). But it does seem to me the clear trend for extracting liquidity from the system favors value over growth and less shiny assets than those that have been shining. We shall see.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, April 17, 2023 Apr 17, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40b95Ih

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today -Thursday April 13, 2023 Apr 13, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/43GLAdk

The markets went into big-time rally mode today and, of course, had already rallied a lot from mid-March levels. The CPI number was quite disinflationary yesterday, as Trevor walked you through in the DC Today, and we saw the disinflationary report in CPI yesterday and now further disinflation in PPI today (producer prices). Headline PPI was down -0.5% on the month when no change was estimated. The core PPI number year-over-year is now +3.4%, down more than 50% from its peak level a year ago. It had been +4.8% YOY just one month ago. But the Headline PPI is now up just +2.7% from a year ago, a massive drop and substantial wholesale disinflation that screams for …

A rate hike??? Dear Lord.

March 2022 headline PPI: +11.7%

March 2023 headline PPI: +2.7%

Okay. Don’t get me started. But did the market rally today because it is now even more obvious that the Fed should not be hiking anymore? Well, if so, the Fed Funds Futures aren’t showing it (still 66% implied odds of a quarter-point rate hike). Do markets rally because of what the Fed ought to do or only what the market believes it will do? The former is unlikely last time I checked. Yet markets today clearly said some form of “risk on,” and the reality is that the Fed either gets it or they don’t. The end is near. At least for this rate hike cycle. Credit is contracting. And both stocks and bonds seem to be seeing some form of easier path ahead.

Listen or watch today’s comments and check out the Ask David below for the pivotal question about the dollar everyone is asking.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

That Last Dollar on the Table Apr 14, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4018FUN

This is a unique Dividend Cafe but one that I think will have something for everybody. It speaks to a mentality and a framework that has more than just economic ramifications. It was inspired by a conversation I had with my wife on Wednesday night about some other things, and as our conversations often do, led to another track that led to another track that led to this inspiration for Dividend Cafe.

At the end of the day, investor behavior will always be the primary determinant of investor outcomes. And investor behavior is deeply tied to how one views the “last dollar on the table.” In fact, even outside of one’s investing life, their view of the “last dollar on the table” is likely to be highly relevant to the outcomes and experiences one will have.

One might even argue the “last dollar on the table” is the most expensive dollar one could ever pursue – financially and otherwise.

Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday April 12, 2023 Apr 12, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3muBoUs

Today was a highly anticipated day, as we were set to get the latest look at inflation data. This data came in lower than expected, which appeased markets at first glance but lost its luster throughout the trading day. Some pointed to the FOMC minutes and the glooming use of the word recession that took the wind out of the market’s sails, yet this was not “new” news (more in the post).

Perhaps now, everyone will shift their focus and attention to Friday as we start to gather another season of earnings reports.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, April 11, 2023 Apr 11, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3moAxo7

Days like today tend to be pretty boring because stock and bond markets are limited in what they are likely to do a day ahead of a news announcement like tomorrow’s CPI reading. The fed funds futures have a 70% chance right now for a quarter-point rate hike next month, and we will see how markets respond to the CPI tomorrow. In the meantime, I tried to make some stuff up today to keep you interested. =)

I’ll put it here instead of down below, but the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has stayed at a low level in March, February, and January. Now, it hasn’t gone much lower from each of those months, but it has stayed level at a spot that is pretty near where it was ten years ago. Their access to capital (particularly from banks) has dropped substantially, and the confidence one would deduce from hiring plans and capex plans is just not there. It isn’t collapsing, but it isn’t good. The number one issue cited: uncertainty over the economy.

It will be interesting to see if the Fed wants to resolve their uncertainty the hard way.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, April 10, 2023 Apr 10, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3GAu2FF

I hope everyone had a wonderful Easter weekend and are feeling excited for the week ahead. Markets should be pretty weird this week, but now I just say that every week because I have such a high chance of being right when I use the word “weird.” Today didn’t do anything to embarrass me in this prediction (more below).

Dividend Cafe last week was my earnest effort to unpack the current state of oil markets and all their economic, geopolitical, and monetary implications

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Back in Charge: OPEC's Return to Economic Dominance Apr 06, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Ui1J4z

Last weekend’s news was not a Lehman bankruptcy, a Silicon Valley depositor backstop, or a Credit Suisse acquisition. It was not even driven by U.S. forces, let alone the usual cast of characters in the Fed, Treasury, or FDIC. Rather, it was OPEC+ making an announcement of production cuts in oil. It didn’t crash markets – in fact, it caused a big rally in the energy sector. But it is a big deal, and it warrants its own special Dividend Cafe.

I would never dare spend a Dividend Cafe pontificating on where the price of oil is going. I do not know, and neither does anyone who trades or tracks oil for a living. Commodity prices are inherently unknowable, and oil is at the top of that list. Getting premises right is no surefire way to the right conclusion, and that applies to oil prices in spades.

But what I will spend this Dividend Cafe doing is pleading with you to see the non-oil ramifications of this oil move. And by “this oil move,” I really mean a lot more than “this” oil move – I mean an entire set of events and conditions that, taken together, represent a significant change in global geopolitics and, with that, investment implications.

So let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe and digest all that is happening.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, April 4, 2023 Apr 04, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40EOqh5

First of all, congratulations to the Huskies of the great state of Connecticut (where some of TBG’s favorite clients reside) on their NCAA championship. I assure you it was the news story today that deserved the most press coverage.

It was a pretty boring day in the market, and all the news wanted to talk about was the Trump court appearance and such. Bonds rallied quite a bit. Stocks had their first down day in a week.

The Q&A’s below dig into a key issue of understanding the stress in the banking system right now and a key issue about the Fed. Scroll down if interested.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, April 3, 2023 Apr 03, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ZFg4ZY

So congratulations to the San Diego State Aztecs and the UConn Huskies, who will go head to head tonight for the NCAA college basketball championship. It has been a tournament to remember – thrilling upsets and last-second shots – and enough investment lessons to generate a whole Dividend Cafe! The written is here, the video is here, and the podcast here. Yes, a March Madness Dividend Cafe, indeed.

I got coaxed into talking about the Trump indictment on Varney Friday, along with some refreshing reminders about investing in the energy sector.

You will find a little market review and a little of everything else in this very special Monday edition DC Today, with a whole whole whole lot of ENERGY and OIL in the aftermath of this weekend’s shocking news.

Off we go …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, March 30, 2023 Mar 30, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3G3Vdsa

So the market went up again today, went negative in the middle of the day, then rallied back in the second half of the day (see chart below). The FDIC is looking to move the cost of the recent bank failures to the banks that didn’t fail (read: to their customers), Sen. Joe Manchin has decided he regrets his support of the “Inflation Reduction Act” atrocity, I wrote of extraordinary bond market volatility two days ago, and then we went two days in a row with bonds frozen in time, and Dr. Anthony Fauci has himself a speaking gig (not sure if it will be virtual or not?).

I remain convinced that the key issue adding to profitability in the energy sector going forward is constrained supply, much of which is a decision and some of which is circumstantially forced. Sen. Manchin’s op-ed mentioned above may reflect a sitting U.S. Senator shocked – shocked! – to discover that many do not want to facilitate U.S. energy independence, but it is not a shock at all. And what it does is make the sector even more attractive as it pertains to legacy and incumbent assets, pipelines, and producers. The sector is capital constrained, which boosts expected rates of return for the capital that comes in. It is supply constrained, which boosts prices and margins for the supply that comes online. And it is sentiment constrained, which boosts risk premium around as a contrarian reality. It will ebb and flow, no doubt, but what the opponents of our U.S. energy sector never understand is that all the bad things are actually good things for investors.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

March Madness Brackets and the Market Mar 31, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40OgHkJ

Any time I use some sort of sports analogy in the Dividend Cafe I get a lot of emails from people who connect to it and say they love it, and then I get emails saying, “come on, I don’t care about sports – please just stick to the market!” I am never offended or bothered – Abraham Lincoln had a line about pleasing people once – but I am also not swayed. If I think there is a real investment or economic lesson that can be told with a sports analogy, I am going to mix that chocolate and peanut butter. And I promise you, today’s broad takeaway for investors is worth it even for your tortured souls who hate sports.

So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, March 29, 2023 Mar 29, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JRB2yV

I read an interesting line from an analyst I read daily in my morning research this morning … “if the bulls are to reclaim control of this market, beta likely needs to reassert itself; hasn’t happened yet.” Of course, this sort of begs the question – bulls of what? Well, if one means “the market index,” then they have essentially said, “if those bullish for beta are to get what they want, beta needs to do well.” I think we call that a tautology. “If I am to eat ice cream I like, I will first have to eat ice cream that I like” is not a super profound observation. But I am not picking on this analyst or the comment – I am pointing out the premise hidden in the statement – that a “bull” means the “index” (beta just measures the portion of a return that is really index/market oriented). It highlighted for me how differently we think at TBG – that one can be agnostic about a broad market index (which is neither bullish nor bearish) yet still bullish on an investment strategy that is not remotely connected to beta … Indeed, to that end we work.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, March 28, 2023 Mar 28, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TNPuMZ

There are two things I think I have amply covered over the last few weeks: (1) Equity market volatility; and (2) the Bond market rally. Both things are true – equities have been all over the map, up and down, even as they are mostly flat (or actually slightly up) since all this banking commotion began. And bonds are indeed up a great deal, with the 1-year yield down a stunning 75 basis points since this began just three weeks ago and the longer end of the curve itself down 50 basis points.

But what is not covered in there is bond market volatility. The swings we have seen in bond yields in the last month are not like anything we have seen since Lehman in 2008. The “VIX” for bonds has elevated beyond what it did during COVID and beyond what it did during the taper tantrum of 2013. This is despite all the quantitative easing that has been done and the general “flight to safety” government bonds represent.

Now, much like equities (if not more so), one could argue these “day to day” swings in bond yields (and therefore in bond prices) really do not matter, and that would be true if all we were talking about was the investment return of one holding these underlying government bonds. But I bring it up because I think it speaks to something more than an expected return in a given asset class, but rather a deeper uncertainty, unpredictability, and general directionlessness that is perhaps permeating more than people understand. The policy milieu is not coherent right now, and rip-roaring bond market volatility says so.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, March 27, 2023 Mar 27, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3noFOMJ

There is a lot today on Housing, which is a matter of practical significance to a lot of you, and there is a lot today on the banking mess and the Fed, which is also connected to Housing. So I think you’ll find today’s missive practical and interesting.

After reports throughout the weekend that both First Citizens Bank and Valley National Bank were bidding with the FDIC to take over Silicon Valley Bank (both publicly traded, sub-$10bn market cap banks, the former out of North Carolina and the latter from New Jersey), the Monday morning announcement ended up being that First Citizens Bank would be the buyer. I don’t think the ownership of Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits, loans, brand, and locations is that important to markets overall, with the FDIC having already put unlimited depositor protection in place. The final resolution of their capital markets and securities business is more relevant to us at The Bahnsen Group, for a variety of portfolio-related reasons.

And really the final resolution of what will happen with First Republic Bank is the most pressing issue across markets out of the wide array of contenders.

Did you know the market closed at 32,254 the day of the Silicon Valley reports on Thursday, March 9, and closed at 32,238 on Friday, March 24, just two weeks later? In between there were ten days of extreme volatility and one day of light volatility, but from the start point to end point, it was dead. flat. in. the. market. And after today markets are UP since this soap opera began. Go figure.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Different Kind of Sunday Mar 24, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JF6mRh

We are in a moment of “volatile Sundays” in the financial services industry. This is when market actors, policymakers, movers, and shakers have big news to announce on a Sunday in an effort to “beat markets opening”, or as Ben Bernanke once joked that his memoir would be called, “before Asia opens.”

I lived through it in spades in 2008 – Fannie and Freddie’s conservatorship, Lehman’s bankruptcy, Wachovia into the arms of Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley’s deal with Mitsubishi, and the government’s extended backstop of Citi – all on different Sunday afternoon/evenings in either September, October, or November of 2008. I can tell you where I was, what I was doing, the exact date, the exact time, and all the things. Good times.

The last couple of Sundays have been a little adventurous, but for different reasons and with different catalysts. In a different environment, the news that UBS had done a “rescue acquisition” of Credit Suisse would have been the biggest news story of the entire year. I want to unpack it this week and share some thoughts on where it may be relevant for you, regular U.S. investors presumably with no direct exposure to either UBS or Credit Suisse, who normally just prefer to use your Sundays for church, family, rest, and sports.

Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, March 23, 2023 Mar 23, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TGllyM

That the market gave up -500 points in fifteen minutes at the end of the day yesterday but then rebounded +500 points this morning is, to me, validation of my theory regarding yesterday: that it was a closing speculative trade. Fundamentally, the facts on the table (where they are known) are not really subject to much debate.

So an interesting thing happened on the way home from processing the Fed’s announcement yesterday … Math. The Fed is now projecting a +0.4% real GDP growth rate this year, yet a +3.2% growth rate is currently showing in the Atlanta Fed model for Q1 (others have it at +2% and others at +2.5%). Regardless of whether or not Q1 comes in at +2% or +3% (and this always refers to an annualized quarterly number), you can’t get from there to +0.4% on the year without … wait for it … a recession.

But the Fed is also showing a projection of no rate cuts this year. And Powell is talking about a credit crunch coming and the financial markets doing their tightening for them. And the first two years of the yield curve are entirely inverted. And the futures market expectation for the 3-month t-bill rate (currently 4.75%) is that in 18 months, it will be below 3.5%. So what should we make of this?

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, March 22, 2023 Mar 22, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TAGcni

All that matters today is what the Fed did and said. And what they did was raise rates a quarter point. And what they said was that “financial conditions have tightened” (well, there you go). And he said that these tighter financial conditions and tougher lending criteria from banks will “factor into their policy decisions” (phew).

As for a First Republic deal – the bank whose depositors basically now have a backstop from the FDIC but has now seen enough deposit withdrawals to warrant a deal with a bigger back to shore up its capital strength – the issue appears now to be what government backstop or assistance will be a part of any deal (something I predicted last week … any buyer in a position of strength knows the issue is systemic risk, and therefore has the leverage to ask for some sweeteners to come with the deal). Some of the items being discussed (per reports) are liability protection and/or relief on capital requirements and/or other regulatory relaxations. Keep your popcorn handy.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, March 21, 2023 Mar 21, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JvZllP

I imagine it is quite likely that the bond market has seen its highs in bond yields for quite some time to come (across the whole yield curve). The 10-year sits at 3.5%, down from 4.21%, and I will be surprised if it gets back up to that level. Likewise, the short end sits at 4.5%, down from over 5%, and I don’t see it getting back there, either. If I am wrong, I am wrong, but I don’t think I am here.

China has bought $88 billion in oil, natural gas, and coal from Russia since the war began last year, up over $30 billion from the year prior and causing Russia to beat out Saudi Arabia as China’s leading supplier.

The government is evaluating how they can increase FDIC deposit insurance levels above $250,000 without getting Congressional approval.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, March 20, 2023 Mar 20, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LBs0Z8

For the second week in a row, I get to do hours upon hours of reading and writing over the weekend, only to have Sunday interventions make obsolete much of that reading and writing. Keep reading to understand more …

There is no question that the major story in markets right now is sort of the only story, and that is the day-to-day perceptions of the banking system at home and abroad. Last week the market was down a hundred points Monday but had been up +350 in the middle of the day. Then Tuesday was up +350 before Wednesday was down -280 (but had been down -700 points). Thursday was then up +375 points, and Friday was down -380 points. So all in, from beginning to end, the market was dead flat on the week. Yep. Dead flat but with substantial movement each and every day. And then, today, we were up +383 points, basically the exact same level as Friday’s downturn. THIS is the type of market where people have a chance to act truly, truly foolish. It is also a prime-time example of directionless volatility.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, March 16, 2023 Mar 16, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JHE8Wf

Brian Szytel here with you today reviewing continued market volatility with today’s 700-point swing, albeit today to the upside, surrounding ongoing stress in the financial sector, along with a significant list of new economic data points. I have a full agenda in today’s video podcast link below with updates on employment, manufacturing, interest rates, and a deep dive into what is unfolding in the banking sector and what it may mean for you.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

All That is On Your Mind Mar 17, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42ftwpL

In this week’s Dividend Cafe, I again decided not to limit myself to one topic but to take the recent avalanche of questions we have received and go through them all, one by one, creating quite a “multi-topic” Dividend Cafe for you. I think you will find the questions intriguing, and I hope you will find the answers satisfying. From questions about student loans to the Fed to depositor insurance to how to select a wealth advisor, we have it all this week (and then some).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, March 15, 2023 Mar 15, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3leNG2y

This is Trevor Cummings, and I am sitting in for David Bahnsen to bring you DC Today.

There is a common idiom in the English language, “Wait until the dust settles.” This adage encourages one to be patient until they have more clarity. Investors crave clarity, and when things become too foggy or dusty, investor anxieties skyrocket. These anxieties surface as market volatility, which you are currently enduring.

At this stage, everyone is still sifting through the rubble of SVB to separate substance from hysteria. I want to encourage you to read David Bahnsen’s special Silicon Valley Bank Dividend Cafe, which was published Monday. Our intent here at The Bahnsen Group is to keep you informed and guide you through the dust. David will even be writing a Dividend Cafe piece on Friday dedicated to the plethora of questions we’ve received this week – you won’t want to miss that.

With that said, let’s talk about what happened around the markets today…

TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, March 14, 2023 Mar 14, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Td4dAJ

ASK DAVID “What do all these things happening with Silicon Valley Bank and the FDIC mean for small and regional banks? Are those banks going to have to pay even more in deposit rates to lure and retain banking customers?”

~ Dave

That is certainly a concern, yes – that even with FDIC protection and solvency issues addressed, the smaller banks may be forced to really punish their own margins with punitive levels of interest paid on deposits. I personally believe the next few days are critical to getting a feel for what the aftermath will mean for regional and small banks. I expect there may be a better answer for “super regionals” and a worse answer for “community/small” banks, but both customer sentiment and policy ramifications are still in the TBD phase. Moody’s did put six good-sized regional banks on review for a credit rating downgrade, citing the level of uninsured deposits and mark-to-market losses in their asset portfolios. But at this time, there has been no need for these banks to sell hold-to-maturity assets.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, March 13, 2023 Mar 13, 2023

Today's Blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/3mQzT2N

There is really only one story in financial markets right now, and that is the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and various ramifications from that. We sent a special Dividend Cafe on all of that and more this morning!!! If all you do is read one thing, read that.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, March 9, 2023 Mar 09, 2023

Today's Blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/3YGi43n

A big market sell-off again now means the market has gone up 1,000 points and down 1,000 points in the last nine days. And Happy Anniversary (14 years ago today) to the generational market bottom in 2009 out of the Great Financial Crisis!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

When Being a Bull or Bear Won't Cut It Mar 10, 2023

Today's Blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/3mK2RRS

Today we are going to talk about something no one else seems to be talking about, and that may be one of the worst things imaginable for financial media ratings if it ever gets out. It is not controversial. It is, to me, somewhat obvious. But it is highly counter-cultural, and as I say, for many, it is highly problematic.

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, March 8, 2023 Mar 08, 2023

Today's post: https://bahnsen.co/3SXObdT

Key Economic Points of the Day:

ADP reported 242,000 private sector jobs created in February. The correlation between the ADP and BLS numbers each month has not been very tight for a while now. Job openings came in at 10.82 million for February, 300k higher than expected. It had been 11.2 million last month. The trade deficit came in at $68.3 billion in February, a little less than expected. Total trade was up +7.6% versus last January ($18.1bn), indicating ongoing improvement in supply chain conditions versus a year ago.

ASK DAVID “I noticed Sen. Elizabeth Warren grilling Jerome Powell yesterday, and her main point (that the primary causes of inflation and the only tool the fed has to fight inflation are disconnected) sounded familiar. Would you have ever guessed that you would find common ground with a left-wing Senator from Massachusetts? She did have to get price gouging theory in there though …”

~ Jack B.

I’ve said this countless times – that though the progressive’s motives are to pin the blame for inflation on “capitalist greed” (the most preposterous theory imaginable), the right’s agenda here will leave them regretting it when economic opponents are the ones making the case that, no, people having jobs is NOT inflationary. Inflation is a highly toxic issue politically, no doubt, and parties not in power will make hay of it when they can just out of political reality. But the need of the hour is economic growth, and for the right to join the fray in alleging that growth and jobs are inflationary is absurd. For Elizabeth Warren to be the one making the case that the Fed is about to do more harm than good is heartbreaking to this movement conservative.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, March 7, 2023 Mar 07, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3mrIiJz

Key Economic Point of the Day:

Futures market completely flip-flopped – went to a 70% chance of a half-point hike at the next meeting, with a 30% chance of a quarter-point hike (had been 30% and 70% just yesterday)

ASK DAVID “What do your most recent observations in the city tell you about the state of the New York City office market?”

~ Anthony

The fact of the matter is, anyone walking around the 40’s or 50’s (streets) on Tuesday through Thursday can tell offices are not merely 50% occupied in midtown – it is closer to 85% on those days. Where the vacancies lie are in bad and antiquated “old” products. The better quality class B and certainly class A office product is full 3-4 days a week, and tenants are renewing leases. A 10% vacancy rate that has gone to 20% inclusive of ALL NYC office products is really not that bad considering everything that has transpired. If you asked any office landlord 30 months ago if they would be content with the scenario they face now by February 2023, they would have killed for it. The leverage landlords are carrying is case by case, too, but if you all are asking whether or not foot traffic is back, New York City is utterly packed. There are moving parts, no doubt, and a new and class-A product is in the best position. But once again, the death of office, the death of going to work, and yes, the death of New York City, as painfully misdiagnosed.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, March 2, 2023 Mar 02, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ZCSvkX

So the market followed its robust January returns with a -4% drop in the Dow for February and a -2.5% drop in the S&P 500, and the bond market dropped -2.7% on the month (though almost every index we track across stock and bond markets was still positive on the year through February, just much less so than previously). A few comments on today’s action here

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It's Worse than You Think Mar 03, 2023

I have written about excessive indebtedness many times in these Dividend Cafe pages, including a piece nearly two years ago that I think has held up quite well. Lately I have written about Japanification, which is not quite the same topic (though there is certainly heavy overlap).

I have long believed in treating the disease, not the symptoms, and I didn't even go to medical school (in fact, if I had, it seems these days I'd be less likely to believe that). That may be an overused cliche, but it has utility when it comes to how we think about our personal lives, our health, our finances, and so many other things. And when it comes to the issue of Japanification I think the overall subject will be served to look with more granularity at the nature of the excessive debt to which I refer.

This is a seriously action-packed Dividend Cafe, and if you do not agree after reading it you are entitled to a full refund of your subscription price.

Let's jump in to the Dividend Cafe ...

Blog post here: https://bahnsen.co/3KMCDrK

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, March 1, 2023 Mar 01, 2023

Blog post here: https://bahnsen.co/3KW53PY

ASK DAVID “In your recent random walk in the Dividend Cafe you mentioned ‘full expensing of all capital expenditures’ as part of your prescription for avoiding Japanification. Will you please explain why this is necessary and what impact it will have?”

~ Luke L.

I think one of the major tenets of Japanification is “low/slow/no growth,” and therefore, an obvious antidote (tautologically) is “growth.” I think the testimony of history is a clear and particularly recent experience that in a period of low capital expenditures, which are needed to improve productivity, which is needed to generate growth, removing disincentives to such productive investment is key. Forcing businesses to make large (and risky) investments NOW, but only to deduct that expense over time, is a disincentive. Immediate cash expensing incentivizes capex, which drives productivity, which drives growth.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday February 28, 2023 Feb 28, 2023

This is Trevor Cummings filling in for David Bahsen as he is traveling back to our New York office today. First and foremost, I want to encourage you to check out David’s Dividend Cafe published on Friday. David covered a myriad of topics in a potpourri fashion, and all of these tidbits are what bubble up from actual clients and readers’ questions. Having attended countless number of David’s speaking engagements, the concluding Q&A is always my favorite; the Dividend Cafe this week reminds me a lot of one of those Q&A sessions.

Alright, without further ado, let’s jump right into what was happening in Markets today as we close out the month of February.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, February 27, 2023 Feb 27, 2023

Well, I am back from my family’s little jaunt through the Bahamian Seas and am grateful to Brian Szytel for filling in with the DC Today for a few days last week. I hope you will find today’s old-school long-form DC Today informative. I will bring you the DC Today from New York on Wednesday and Thursday this week, as well as Dividend Cafe on Friday. Trevor will handle DC Today duties tomorrow as I fly after the market close to the world’s greatest city.

Blog post here: https://bahnsen.co/3ksS6me

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, February 23, 2023 Feb 23, 2023

Brian Szytel here with you this up day in markets albeit in a choppy 500 point trading range of a session this holiday shortened week. I have some important updated economic numbers, along with comments on currency and real estate you will want to be sure to check out.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Random Walk Through Things Feb 24, 2023

As I am out of the country these last few days with my family on a brief trip as the kids enjoy a week out of school, returning today, I am doing this week’s Dividend Cafe “old school” – which is to say, jumping around topic to topic and answering a handful of questions along the way. I love the “single topic” Dividend Cafe writings each week, but every now and then, it is fun to mix it up a little, especially from a top-secret overseas destination!

Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe … Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, February 22, 2023 Feb 22, 2023

Coming off the worst day of the year yesterday we get some market recovery and a little volatility relief with rates coming off yesterdays highs. Today is a more Fed heavy podcast with meeting minutes released which I discuss along with some economic takeaways on the day

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday February 21, 2023 Feb 21, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3XR3bLi

Good afternoon, Brian Szytel here with you today, helping you navigate in a sea of red ink in today’s trading day. A volatile day with the VIX up big, with much of the narrative revolving around interest rates moving higher across the spectrum, along with mixed earnings and economic data and all of which I fully unpack in today’s video podcast

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Energy, Oil, and 2023 Feb 17, 2023

Today's Link - https://bahnsen.co/3IxtjXf

Since the new calendar year began just about six weeks ago oil prices are basically flat, having started right around $80/barrel and still sitting now right around the same level. The energy sector indices are all up on the year, somewhere around +1%, so nowhere near the level, the market is up year-to-date, but up nicely nonetheless. It's not been a rally mode, but it's not been a sell-off, either.

Yet there is a lot going on under the surface. One can be forgiven for being suspicious of the idea that both the commodity side and public equity side can stay flattish and benignly boring for long.

My goal in this week's Dividend Cafe is to update our macro perspective on the energy sector and offer some correct practical suggestions around investing in it. It's a little economic, a little political, a little global, and a lot of fun. But you knew that already ... So let's jump into the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, February 16, 2023 Feb 16, 2023

ASK DAVID “Do you buy this stuff from Larry Lindsey and other economists like him that are worried that financial conditions are good enough that the Fed needs to assume their tightening is ‘not tight enough’? The reasoning seems to be that the Fed should take a message from financial conditions that they need to be tighter. Should the Fed be responding to financial conditions?”

~ L.K.

I disagree with Larry Lindsey emphatically on this. It’s inherently contradictory – if the Fed were to try to let financial conditions drive monetary policy, then financial conditions would price (or try to price) how and what the Fed would be reacting to, giving the Fed a constantly moving target. The Fed influences yields and multiples and spreads; to then be influenced by yields, multiples, and spreads is perpetually circular and incoherent.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, February 15, 2023 Feb 15, 2023

Today's Link - https://bahnsen.co/3xqUhJS

ASK DAVID

“If valuation matters at the time of purchase, why would it not matter at the time of reinvestment of dividends from that same company purchased?”

~ Steve

The simple answer is – it does, and if we felt a company’s valuation was so excessive that we didn’t want dividends reinvested in that company, why would we want to own the company at all? So the question about reinvestment always answers itself. If a dividend shouldn’t be reinvested in the company issuing it, it shouldn’t be owned at all. We apply the SAME criteria to holding a stock that we do buying it – that is, valuation sensitivity and risk/reward prudence.

Now, why would we potentially reject a stock at $225/share, buy it at $150/share, and then still keep it when it is back above $200/share? Is it a matter of just liking it differently now versus when it was first at $225? Less subjectively than that, the entry yield was likely different, the free cash flow projections were likely different, the buffer of safety was different, management forecasts of dividend growth were likely different, and where the company or economic cycle stood was likely different. So criteria always include different inputs and points of emphasis and focus at different times and therefore at different prices.

A company can be at 20x earnings and $100/share, and then 10x earnings and $200/share. Valuation, not price, always and forever. But along with valuation are Free Cash Flow, growth rates, dividend yield, capex expectations, and much more.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday February 14, 2023 Feb 14, 2023

Today's Link: https://bahnsen.co/3E7qE3V

The CPI number for the month of January came in at +0.4% for core inflation and +0.5% for headline inflation, exactly in line with expectations. The year-over-year number is down to 6.4%, vs. the high of 9.1% last summer, and less than last month’s 6.5%. This represents seven months in a row of a declining inflation rate.

Core goods have now deflated by 4.8% on an annualized basis over the last four months. The deflationary drag of core goods will wear off in the months ahead as the year-over-year comparison wanes (lower comparative number, otherwise known as base effect).

Shipping Costs from China are down -90% from a year ago and it seems some people just want to act like that is a small factor in all of this (or prices being 10x higher than they are now was a small factor in the previous goods inflation). I remain mystified by this willful blindness.

“Owner’s Equivalent Rent” was up +0.7% on the month and 7.8% on the year. Uh-huh. The disinflationary impact from shelter is expected to become visible in the data from March through the end of the year (last March people were still signing leases higher than those the month before, but by spring the rents peaked and then downward pressure began in earnest in the second half of the year, so that gets picked up in year-over-year numbers this year). I believe the impact of this will be worth three full percentage points to headline CPI by the end of the year (meaning, shaving three points off). Some other analyst estimates have it between 2.5% and 2.8% of a downward impact.

The new category of “super-core” inflation – that is, inflation on that which is left when you exclude food, energy, and housing, is sticking around 4% right now.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, February 13, 2023 Feb 13, 2023

Today's Link: https://bahnsen.co/3HXUEAl

A rally day in the markets, telling you exactly what the markets think about the theory of extra-terrestrial attacks from UFOs… More below!

Dividend Cafe took a stab Friday at applying our present economic outlook (short-term and long-term) to the logic of dividend growth investing.

Off we go …

Market Action

Futures opened down -70 points last night just as the Super Bowl was kicking off so I figure anyone trading futures at that time was a weirdo. By bedtime, they were down over a hundred points, and at wake-up, they were basically flat. The market opened up by +75 points and rallied higher throughout the day. The Dow closed up +377 points (+1.11%) with the S&P 500 up +1.14% and the Nasdaq up +1.48%.

With almost 70% of the earnings season now complete we are tracking 5% year-over-year sales growth and a year-over-year earnings decline of -2.8%. Full-year earnings estimates continue to sit at $224/share from the S&P 500. An interesting summary from Strategas Research comparing both economic data and market data now to the same in September of last year (so five months ago). All market indices are higher. Gas prices are lower. Inflation is lower. Oil prices and long-term bond yields are essentially the same. Unemployment has stayed very low. S&P earnings estimates are lower and the fed funds terminal rate is higher. When you add it all up, markets do not believe the fed funds terminal rate and short-term upper range is going to hold. The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.70%, down four basis points on the day. Top-performing sector for the day: Technology (+1.77%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Energy (-0.60%)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, February 9, 2023 Feb 09, 2023

The DC Today - Thursday, Feb 9 - https://bahnsen.co/40IKvQA

Ask Trevor “It doesn’t seem like stocks have a believable catalyst to go up from here, wouldn’t it be wise to sell stocks and buy a short term treasury for the guaranteed interest?”

I can sympathize with the premise here – if earnings face some headwinds, and rising rates compress multiples, you want to know what drives stock prices higher from here. The real answer is I don’t know and this is the right answer because it is unknowable. Now, we could craft a reasonable narrative of what could happen, and how things might play out, but we’d never speculate on a hypothesis like this.

For me, I like to approach portfolio construction by categorizing each dollar into one of two categories – money earmarked to be spent in the near future and money set aside to grow over the long run. With this framing in mind, a conversation about swapping stocks for treasuries is an apples-and-oranges discussion. Stocks will irritate you in the short run, and yet history has shown a reward for the patient long-term investor, we call this a risk premium.

Portfolio design made simple is all about matching the appropriate investment based on a well-defined time horizon. If you ever find yourself trying to invest long-term monies in short-term solutions or vice versa, you are participating in some version of market timing.

Based on my own experience, I know I can’t time the markets in a consistent or profitable manner. I also know I have never really met anyone who can. So, if it walks like market timing, talks like market timing, it’s probably market timing, and you can’t count me out.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Risk that Meets the Moment Feb 10, 2023

Link to Dividend Cafe: https://bahnsen.co/3jErUVn

I wrote last week about the multi-year (and indeed, multi-decade) beliefs we have about macroeconomic conditions. In a nutshell, I made the case that we face a form of “Japanification” where the diminishing return of fiscal and monetary efforts to goose our economy from the impact high debt has had on its growth leads to yet more debt and also less growth, all as part of a feedback loop.

I wrote the week before about the uncertainty of what will happen in the economy this year and presented the most objective cases I could both for and against a 2023 recession. The market seems to be voting against a severe recession this year so far. This causes me to believe a recession is more likely. Many of the most famous “perma-bears” of our land have heavily leaned into the assurance of a severe recession. This causes me to believe one is less likely. (I really do crack myself up).

A fair question out of the “longer-term” outlook we have (Japanification) and the “shorter-term” outlook we have (recession possibility without recession certainty) is why we see Dividend Growth as an extremely compelling solution in these scenarios. Dividend Growth Equity investing is “risk investing” (there is no maturity date where a par value is promised by the federal government). There are plenty of forms of risk investing, and I want to explain why I believe dividend growth is uniquely suited for these moments.

So jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: [DividendCafe.com] https://bahnsen.co/3jErUVn TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, February 8, 2023 Feb 08, 2023

Good afternoon, Brian Szytel here with you today on this down day in markets following yesterday’s unconvincing (to me, at least) Fed-led rally. Today there is more chatter from several other Fed Presidents I’ll discuss, along with some comments on inflation, recession indications, and some takeaway comments from last night’s State of the Union address. Plenty to go through, including my Super Bowl prediction at the end, so I’ll let you hop into the podcast link below from here and reach out with any questions, as always.

US futures opened last night down slightly, losing a little ground through the night, pointing to a down 100-point open at home, while Europe, in contrast, continued to hold gains. Markets opened in the red by about 110 points but were back toward fair value within the first hour of the morning session.

Dow: -207 points (-.61%) S&P: -1.11% Nasdaq: -1.68% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.63%%, down 4.7 basis points on the day. The 2/10 yield curve is inverted by over 80 bps. The 3mo/10YR curve is inverted by 108 bps. Top-performing sector: Real Estate was the best-performing sector today at -.29%, although all sectors were in the red. Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services are down -4.13%, largely due to Google being down over 7% on the day. WTI Crude Oil: $78.41/barrel, up +1.63%

Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3xdfw1m DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday February 7, 2023 Feb 07, 2023

Lots of chatter from Fed Governors these days with Kashkari saying we need higher rates for longer, Bostic in Atlanta saying January’s jobs report speaks to another rate hike (which was already priced in), but now today Jerome Powell basically reaffirming his message of last week, which is one of an imminent pause. Right now, we see a 91% chance of a quarter-point hike at the next meeting and a 70% chance of one more quarter-point hike after that.

Dow: +266 points (+0.78%) S&P: +1.29% Nasdaq: +1.90% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.68% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+3.08%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.36%) WTI Crude Oil: $77.37/barrel (+4.40%) Key Economic Points of the Day:

Bond yields have jumped 37 basis points since the 1st of the month on the short end of the curve The trade deficit came in at $67.4 billion for December, a tad less than expected. Exports were up +7.6% last year (energy had to help) and imports were up +2% on the year. Those divergent rates led to a decline in the trade deficit, but unfortunately, a decline of -2.5% in total trade for Q4 and -1.1% for Q3 brought total trade for 2022 down to just +4.4% versus a year ago.

Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3DPsyG2 DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, February 6, 2023 Feb 06, 2023

Futures opened last night down -80 points and stayed down near -100 points into the evening. This morning futures pointed to a down -200 point open pre-market. The market opened down -150 points, worsened a bit, and then steadily improved throughout the day. The Dow closed down -36 points (-0.11%) with the S&P 500 down -0.61% and the Nasdaq down -1%.

We are exactly halfway through earnings season (that number will explode higher this week) and revenue growth appears to be tracking towards +4.6% year-over-year (a tad better than expected) with earnings decline tracking towards -2.7% year-over-year (a bit worse than expected). Full-year earnings now sit at $224 expected, a +2.2% increase over the $219 of last year. Profit margins declining from 17.7% at their peak early last year to 16.2% is the big reason for the delta between revenues and earnings. Expect all this to update a lot in the next two quarters. A clear by-product of the weakening dollar: Companies with high foreign sales are outperforming companies with low foreign sales. It would sure seem one of the biggest stories of January was narrowing credit spreads (note here the spread compression in Investment Grade corporate bonds over the last three months). This has facilitated one of the biggest bond market rallies I have ever seen.

The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.65%, up 12 basis points today Top-performing sector for the day: Utilities (+0.87%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Communication Services (-1.31%) Nigeria presently ranks as the #1 nation in the world for use of cryptocurrency. Thailand and Turkey round out the top two. These three countries are known for the heavy presence of a criminal underground which may possibly (just maybe, possibly) explain some of this.

Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] (https://bahnsen.co/3DKsV4G) DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Deflation Debation in Denation Feb 03, 2023

I have a view of where the United States is in its economic cycle that I have had for quite some time, and that has substantially informed many of the macro assumptions I bring to portfolio management. I have shared this overarching worldview many times over the years in Dividend Cafe and elsewhere, and I am constantly refining it, analyzing it, and even challenging it.

It has the word “deflation” in it, though I really believe the term “Japanification” is a better encapsulation of my perspective. “Deflation” is often associated with “depression” and no one in their right mind believes we are in another “great depression.” And of course, the boom of inflation that we saw in 2021 and 2022 did not create a lot of discussion about the threat of deflation (like worrying about freezing to death in a heat wave). But temperatures do get very cold in the same places that they get very hot (I just made up that analogy right there). And as I have written before, there was nothing in the 2021-22 inflation that remotely contradicted my macroeconomic thesis.

So what I want to do today is re-hash the greater macroeconomic view that I believe properly frames our perspective at The Bahnsen Group. Some history is needed, some updated data, and some general understanding of what is making this road to Japanification tick. I promise it won’t be boring.

Okay, I don’t promise it won’t be boring if you are still reading desperate to get to some juicy tabloid gossip. But if you are still reading because you need a little more E-conomic talk and a little less E! Channel in your life, then you have come to the right place. Let’s jump in to the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com [DividendCafe.com] https://bahnsen.co/3JBih4f TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, February 2, 2023 Feb 02, 2023

ASK DAVID “Could you give us some tips on what we can do to fight ESG?”

~ Mark S.

It is the subject of much obsession at places like National Review’s Capital Matters, and I am engaged in many efforts to fight for the interests of shareholders when it comes to the activity of corporate managers taking their P’s and Q’s from the radical and incoherent agenda of various fads and virtue-signaling alphabet soup movements. I have primarily noted that ESG has really been more of a marketing tactic for Wall Street to raise money at higher fees than anything else. But there is no question that there are many other consequences and intentions behind the movement, and that the movement’s lack of clarity and specificity as to what “environmental, social, and governance” principles they advocate has rendered it a moving target. I commend Aswath Damodaran of NYU for his frequent wisdom on the issue, and I will soon be posting more about general shareholder activism and rights and what TBG is doing in this regard.

Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] (https://bahnsen.co/3JyLk8w) DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, February 1, 2023 Feb 01, 2023

ASK DAVID “When you talk about a stock on television, but then later end up selling as your viewpoint changes, do you publish or broadcast your new view somewhere?”

~ Tom

As for the more practical aspect of your question, no, we really couldn’t possibly be responsible for “running a portfolio on TV” if you know what I mean. Updating what we have added and subtracted and bought and sold and when and why would require a really different forum to take on that responsibility. We are never making Buy or Sell recommendations on TV, but rather just speaking at a point in time as to what we are doing and why. People use that information in a number of different ways, but I would never recommend one use it as a holistic portfolio strategy (partially for the very reasons you cite). Our clients, obviously, see the whole enchilada week by week etc. (our WPHR is sent to clients every Wednesday, and yes, regulatory requirements render that a client-only communique). I hope this helps.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, January 31, 2023 Jan 31, 2023

ASK DAVID “Would you mind giving me your Cribb note version of your expectations on the USD’s devaluation now that Saudi Arabia (and probably others) are willing to trade oil for other currencies than the US dollar? If you expect a significant currency related (not just inflation related) devaluation, do you have an idea of how we can offset that?”

~ D.M.

The main thing to say is that: Saudi has not yet done it, it will take a while to happen, it may happen at very small levels, and we do not expect a significant devaluation from this alone. We do believe it is a shot across the bow geopolitically, but not in fundamental forex (yet).

The major thing for investors to understand is not that the collapse of the dollar is imminent (I wish I had one dollar for every time someone has suggested that or fretted over it in front of me over the last 25 years, for I would surely have a great deal of very spendable and exchangeable and useable dollars). Rather, it is that China is desperately seeking international legitimacy for their Yuan. The rest of this subject is mostly noise. Links mentioned in this episode:

[TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3JMMeP1 DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, January 30, 2023 Jan 30, 2023

Futures opened last night down -50 and were down -85 into the evening. This morning markets pointed to a down -265 open pre-market. Futures would improve in the next three hours before the opening. The market opened down just -80 points and then went positive before then steadily declining throughout the day. The Dow closed down -261 points (0.77%), with the S&P 500 down -1.30% and the Nasdaq down -1.96%.

January looks to be the greatest month for bond market auctions in history, with every single auction printing below-market yields. More demand than supply across the yield curve; each auction of new treasury debt means one thing – these buyers don’t believe these yields will last. Only 29% of companies have reported Q4 results so far, so it is really too early, still, but thus far, we are tracking for year-over-year revenue growth of +4.2% and year-over-year earnings contraction of -2.9%. Full-year earnings estimates started the year at $225 on the S&P 500 and are now sitting at $220. The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.54%, up two basis points on the day. Top-performing sector for the day: Consumer Staples (+0.07%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Energy (-2.29%) Earnings in energy currently make up over 12% of the S&P’s earnings, but Energy is currently only 5% of the S&P 500 by weighting. That 7% differential between earnings contribution and weighting is the highest it has ever been.

Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3JqiqaH DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Recession Watch: The Perfect Call Jan 27, 2023

The month of January has launched 2023 in a very different direction than 2022 thus far. I do not mean because markets are up thus far whereas they were down in 2022 (though technically both of those things are true). But beyond the mere directional change in markets (which could reverse at the drop of a hat), the themes and factors influencing markets – in other words, the stuff that matters – has changed. Moving way down the totem pole has been what the Fed is doing or is expected to do, and moving way up in priority (to the very top) is what will happen in the economy as a result of what the Fed has already done.

I am going to elaborate on what that means in today’s Dividend Cafe, and more importantly, make the case for and against a 2023 recession. And I hope that after reading my case you will decide I have made the perfect call … Let’s jump in to the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com [DividendCafe.com] https://bahnsen.co/3WIokXu TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, January 26, 2023 Jan 26, 2023

Dow: +204.45 (+0.61%) S&P: +1.10% Nasdaq: +1.76% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.497% (+3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+3.32%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.28%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.04/barrel (+0.89%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

Weekly jobless claims again reflected the strength of the labor markets with initial claims coming in at 186,000 versus a median forecast of 205,000 A reminder, all of this coming on the heels of daily reports of layoffs from some of the top employers in the country The 2022 4th quarter GDP number came in at 2.9%, slightly above the median forecast of 2.8%, and buoyed by continued solid consumer spending

Durable goods orders came in at 5.6% compared to a 2.4% forecast, but a quick look behind the curtain shows that much of this was lifted by a 116% spike in aircraft orders ex-transportation new orders actually declined U.S. new home sales edged out the forecasted number, reporting 616,000 on a median forecast of 615,000, and marking a three-month trend of rising new home sales Note, the year-over-year figure here is still down nearly 27%, completely driven by higher borrowing.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, January 25, 2023 Jan 25, 2023

Dow: +10 points (+0.03%) S&P: -0.02% Nasdaq: -0.18% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.45% (-1.8 basis points) Top-performing sector: Financials (+0.74%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-1.36%) WTI Crude Oil: $80.49/barrel (+0.45%)

ASK DAVID “This statement in Brian’s response to yesterday’s question caught my eye:

“…because inflation is ultimately driven by demand.”

I find this interesting because I believe I have heard you say, quite emphatically, that inflation is first and foremost a supply side phenomenon. So is this simply a theoretical disagreement among peers or am I misinterpreting something? ”

~ Mike

Inflation, by definition, is one or the other or both. “Too much money chasing too few goods (or services)” – it is an algebraic expression that can have one or both inputs contributing (MV=PT) I believe this recent moment’s inflation (2021-22) was clearly supply-side-driven. The context of Brian’s full paragraph with that one line in it makes clear his view’s alignment with mine.

Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3Haj3Cb DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, January 24, 2023 Jan 24, 2023

Futures opened last night about even give or take 20 points, and stayed that way until early morning when we began moving lower and then notably so pointing to a down -150 point open. We opened down about -170 points but were down north of -250 after the first 20 minutes of trading. Around 1145 EST we had slightly better than expected PMI data released and fully recovered the morning losses trading sideways with a small upwards bias the remainder of the trading day. We closed positive on the Dow but slightly negative on both the SP500 and Nasdaq.

Dow: +104.41 (+.31%) S&P: -.07% Nasdaq: -.27% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.46%, down -5.6bps on the day Top-performing sector: Industrials up +.65% Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services -.69% WTI Crude Oil: $80.16/barrel, down -1.79% Key Economic Point of the Day:

A flash read today on US Composite PMI data showed a slight improvement over December, although still handily in contraction territory and the slowest since last October at 46.6 from 45 the month prior. Manufacturing PMI was little changed at 46.8 up from 46.2 with Services PMI at 46.6 from 44.7. Could the data in the chart below pick back up above 50 into positive territory before we end up registering an official recession this year, of course, but that economic margin is about as thin as it gets right now. For what its worth, this PMI data point is what led to markets recovering after the mornings initial sell off and was a ‘less bad’ read following December – not so bad that we fear recession is immanent, but cool enough to back the ‘Fed will pause soon’ narrative. Interestingly enough, the flash PMI read today from the Eurozone actually showed it barely bump back into expansion territory from 49.3 last month to 50.2, although not sure I would call that robust.

Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3RbWe5R DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, January 23, 2023 Jan 23, 2023

Futures opened last night pretty close to flat (down -20 points) and stayed right there into the evening. This morning futures pointed to a dead flat open pre-market when I first woke up. The market opened flat but moved up from there and stayed up with a few zigs and zags along the way (see chart below) The Dow closed up +254 points (+0.76%), with the S&P 500 up +1.19% and the Nasdaq up +2%

The worst performers of 2022 are so far the best performers into 2023, partially as tax loss selling leads to re-buying post-wash sale rules. The “dividend payers” outperformed the “non-payers” in the S&P 500 by 23% last year. Dividends paid in the S&P 500 last year were $563 billion, the highest amount in history. Dividends were 26% of the return of the market in the 2010s and the 1990s but 100% of the return in the 2000s (when the market had a negative price return). Prior to that, dividends had averaged between 40% and 70% of the market return every decade for fifty years. The current dividend payout ratio of the S&P 500 is 33%; it has averaged 48% for nearly a hundred years but has not gotten back to that average since the financial crisis. Selectivity is crucial. The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.52%, up 3.7 basis points on the day. Top-performing sector for the day: Technology (+2.28%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Energy (-0.20%) TIP spreads show implied inflation for ten years at 2.1% now, down from over 3% less than a year ago. Shorter term inflation expectations (5-year) evidenced in the TIPS market (treasury inflation-protected securities) has gone from 3.6% at the high to 2.1% now. Whether 10-year or 5-year, the bond market has seen a collapse in inflation expectations in recent months.

Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3QZ6Y7w DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, January 19, 2023 Jan 19, 2023

I, Trevor Cummings, am honored to be filling in for David Bahnsen today. I hope you will join me for the video and/or podcast, as I provide you with the daily happenings around markets. Please don’t miss out on the “Ask David” section below, as we’ve fielded this same or similar question quite a few times recently.

Without further ado, off we go…

Dow: -252.26(-0.76%) S&P: -0.76% Nasdaq: -0.96% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.395% (+2 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+1.11%) Bottom-performing sector: Industrials (-2.08%) WTI Crude Oil: $80.47/barrel (+1.25%)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

An Updated State of Housing Jan 20, 2023

FOR ACCESS to CHARTs described in this episode, click here - https://bahnsen.co/3DnVULR

I wrote a piece for the Dividend Cafe in May last year about the subject of housing and having re-read it this morning, I wouldn’t change a word. But those more evergreen principles don’t take away the appetite many have for the current state of affairs. Economic conversation right now largely centers around recession questions, and discussions about financial markets are understandably focused on the stock market. Yet right in the Venn diagram of both the economy and the market is the state of housing, and almost every person I know lives somewhere. So this topic is perhaps more relevant in a practical sense than many of the others that garner our attention.

I sometimes avoid this topic because that relevance is so misunderstood and misapplied (i.e. “if I could just know what would happen to house prices in the next few months, I would know if I should buy or rent” – or worse – “if I just knew what would happen to house prices in the next few months I could resume my foolproof home-flipping plans”). But as you shall see in today’s Dividend Cafe, our interest in the topic of housing is for a different application altogether.

Let’s jump into housing yet again, in the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, January 18, 2023 Jan 18, 2023

Dow: -614 points (-1.81%) S&P: -1.56% Nasdaq: -1.24% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.37% (-16 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Services (-0.93%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-2.65%) WTI Crude Oil: $79.25/barrel (-1.16%) Key Economic Points of the Day:

The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw outright (and rather significant) DEFLATION in December, with prices dropping on the month -0.5%, well more than the -0.1% expected. November’s number was adjusted downwards by -0.2% as well. The 7.4% year-over-year number came down to 6.2%. The CORE number is down to 5.5%. Wholesale gas prices dropping -13.4% helped the cause, as did the food index’s -1.2% decline. Energy/gas prices have helped downward pressure in recent months, and that could/likely will reverse in months ahead even as other inflationary data see more downward pressure. I expect the core vs. headline reads to potentially diverge significantly in the months ahead. Industrial Production fell -0.7% in December and was actually down -1% when you factor in downward revisions from past months. Manufacturing led the way down. This was the largest monthly decline in more than a year. On an annualized basis, Industrial Production is down -5.2% in the last three months. Microsoft joined the fray of huge tech companies performing massive layoffs as they announced plans to lay off 10,000 employees (5% of their workforce) Retail sales fell -1.1% in December, mostly in line with the level of disinflation of gasoline prices we saw last month.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, January 17, 2023 Jan 17, 2023

Futures opened last night pretty flat (down a pinch) and dropped to down -50 points or into the evening as the Cowboys were having their way with Tom Brady. This morning futures pointed to a down -50 point open pre-market and that went a bit lower after results from Goldman Sachs. The market opened down close to -200 points and fell further in the next two hours before leveling around that low throughout the day. The reason for the Dow’s much worse result than the other two is that really the Dow’s drop was led by just two financial names. The Dow closed down -392 points (-1.14%), with the S&P down -0.20% and the Nasdaq +0.14%.

The year is off to an interesting start – with just nine days of trading behind us (due to two Monday holidays so far), a lot of “shinies” are up on the year, and yet market breadth has been very strong with the highest percentage of stocks in a 10-day advance since 2020. As good as some of the shinies have done, the equal-weight (average stock) is still doing better than the index itself (cap-weight). The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.55%, up four basis points on the day A pivotally important fact – yes, bond yields are all down, BUT they are down proportionately (essentially, the 2-year has dropped 30bps AND the 10-year and has dropped 30bps, meaning the yield curve inversion has NOT improved) Top-performing sector for the day: Technology (+0.44%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Materials (-1.07%) I want to make sure I consistently reiterate my theme with data around the history of growth-value rotations (primarily, that they are secular decade-type rotations, not quarterly or annual ones) Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com]https://bahnsen.co/3IUuwbA DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

There's a Different Kind of Bernie on Every Corner Jan 13, 2023

Last weekend I watched a new documentary series on Netflix called Madoff: The Monster of Wall Street. Some of you know I am a bit of a geek for all things Wall Street history, and I seriously doubt you would believe me if you knew how many documentaries, fictionalized movies and TV shows, not to mention real books, I have taken in over the years covering various elements of Wall Street history. Many of them have a protagonist (at least from my perspective), and many cover the escapades of either the evil or the incompetent. This latest Madoff series manages to do both – cover the evil and the incompetent.

But the entire Bernie Madoff saga also reinforces one of the most important and actionable realities of investing, universally applicable and relevant to all. And it really has very little to do with the red flags to avoid when it comes to international Ponzi schemes. Don’t get me wrong – I remain earnestly opposed to Ponzi schemes. =) But there is another lesson in the Madoff saga that transcends even that, and it applies to the core of human nature. And that is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: [Episode Blog Post] (https://bahnsen.co/3QCrOcE) TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, January 12, 2023 Jan 12, 2023

Dow: +269 points (+0.81%) S&P: +1.28% Nasdaq: +1.76% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.54% (-7.6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+3.60%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (+0.06%) WTI Crude Oil: $77.71/barrel (+3.45%)

ASK DAVID “The US government has stated that it will purchase crude oil to replenish the strategic reserve once the price hits $70. In effect, this seems to indicate that the government will purchase millions of barrels at $70.

Does this function as a price floor? And, if so, what impact does a government-created price floor have on markets?”

~ Keith

So just by way of clarification, they have indicated they want that to be the rough price level at which they will transact, but their rough and very ambiguous guidance on the subject would indicate the intent of more a floor than a ceiling and yet, if the price does not go (or stay) there, it may not be a price at which much transacts. The government cannot make the market cooperate. But to the extent the market expects that level to be a rough “floor,” I suppose one could assume in their economic calculation that some of the left tail risks of various price collapses are less likely. The problem is that they can change their mind, and any number of events could happen (upside or downside) that alter the economics here. What market actors ultimately know is that there is a forced buyer in the marketplace, and supply calculations, profit expectations, and a number of numerical considerations around production can be performed with that intervening fact lingering. It does suggest a certain backstop in matters which provide a bit of an asymmetrical risk/reward (in the producers’ favor). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, January 11, 2023 Jan 11, 2023

Dow: +269 points (+0.81%) S&P: +1.28% Nasdaq: +1.76% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.54% (-7.6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+3.60%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (+0.06%) WTI Crude Oil: $77.71/barrel (+3.45%)

ASK DAVID “The US government has stated that it will purchase crude oil to replenish the strategic reserve once the price hits $70. In effect, this seems to indicate that the government will purchase millions of barrels at $70.

Does this function as a price floor? And, if so, what impact does a government-created price floor have on markets?”

~ Keith

So just by way of clarification, they have indicated they want that to be the rough price level at which they will transact, but their rough and very ambiguous guidance on the subject would indicate the intent of more a floor than a ceiling and yet, if the price does not go (or stay) there, it may not be a price at which much transacts. The government cannot make the market cooperate. But to the extent the market expects that level to be a rough “floor,” I suppose one could assume in their economic calculation that some of the left tail risks of various price collapses are less likely. The problem is that they can change their mind, and any number of events could happen (upside or downside) that alter the economics here. What market actors ultimately know is that there is a forced buyer in the marketplace, and supply calculations, profit expectations, and a number of numerical considerations around production can be performed with that intervening fact lingering. It does suggest a certain backstop in matters which provide a bit of an asymmetrical risk/reward (in the producers’ favor).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, January 10, 2023 Jan 10, 2023

A little early morning volatility but then a small rally on the day in markets. Read below, listen, watch – the choice is yours!

MARKET ACTION

Dow: +186 points (+0.56%) S&P: 0.70% Nasdaq: 1.01% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.62% (+10 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Svcs (+1.29%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.26%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.16%) WTI Crude Oil: $74.66/barrel (flat) Key Economic Points of the Day:

Used Car Prices dropped -15% year-over-year in 2022 (from where they ended 2021), the largest single-year drop on record. This came, of course, off of large increases in 2021. The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index was up in December versus November but basically right at the all-time low set in October. 21% of people surveyed said they believed it to be a good time to buy. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 89.8 from 91.9 in December, the lowest since June of last year.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, January 9, 2023 Jan 09, 2023

Futures opened last night up +40 points and were up over +80 points by bedtime. This morning futures pointed to a +100-point open pre-market. The market opened up +150 points and got up over +300 points before falling just over -100 points. A 450-point delta between the high and low levels today … The Dow closed down -113 points (-0.34%) with the S&P 500 down -0.08%, and the Nasdaq up +0.63% as Tesla and the chip sector rallied substantially.

The massive rally Friday saw 7-to-1 advancers to decliners, fairly solid breadth. The top 20% of companies paying out cash dividends as their primary cash outlet were down -2.7% last year compared to the top 20% of companies doing the highest stock buybacks (which were down -13.3%). This is comparing apples-to-apples – top performers compared to top performers by their primary cash outlet vehicle. The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.53%, down 4 basis points on the day. Top-performing sector for the day: Technology (+1.09%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Health Care (-1.66%) Revenue growth is expected this year in each sector of the S&P besides Utilities and Materials (and a very slight top-line revenue decline is expected in Technology). The more significant factor will be margins and where overall profit levels come in, though if earnings are revised downwards as time goes on, I suspect it will have more to do with lesser-than-expected revenues than it will have lesser-than-expected margins.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Year Behind, Year Ahead - Special 2023 White Paper Jan 06, 2023

Today's Dividend Cafe Link - https://bahnsen.co/3Z98Le5

I’ve lost count of how many years now we’ve done this, but it is a lot, and it is one of my favorite projects every year. I thoroughly enjoy the research that goes into it, the writing that creates it, and the accountability that comes out of it. I will refrain from the temptation to start waxing and waning now and just say that I hope you find this year’s Year Behind, Year Ahead white paper profitable. It’s going to be a wild year.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, January 5, 2023 Jan 05, 2023

A solid day for the energy sector and some key blue chip companies but downside across most market sectors.

Dow: -340 points (-1.02%) S&P: -1.16% Nasdaq: -1.47% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.72% (+1 basis point) Top-performing sector: Energy (+1.99%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.89%) WTI Crude Oil: $73.80/barrel (+1.32%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

The ADP jobs number for the private sector came in at 235k for December, well above the 150k projected. Naturally, futures went down on the news.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, January 4, 2023 Jan 04, 2023

The new wing of the TBG offices in Newport is now open. We are excited for you to come see it.

I believe it is now 28 out of our 50 people that are based in Newport, soon to be 30 out of 52 (we are hiring two new Tax Services people this month). The new space gives us extra space we needed for our Solutions Department from last year’s growth, more space for additional future growth, new offices for key partner-advisors, additional space for our growing Tax Services Department, and additional client conference room meeting space. Come visit any time!

Today’s market action was up and down but mostly up …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, January 3, 2023 Jan 03, 2023

I began writing this from Dallas, Texas this morning, where yesterday USC suffered a heartbreaking loss in what was one of the most exciting Cotton Bowl games ever. I am back in Newport now, where tomorrow morning we reveal the new large office expansion to our team (same floor, same building). It has been a labor of love, I assure you. We have added new advisor offices (we have a new advisor starting in Newport Beach and another new one starting in Nashville next week), but mostly the Newport expansion houses new members of our Tax Department, Planning Department, Research, and Trading. It is really beautiful space.

Today’s DC Today is the normal Monday format of DC Today and, obviously, the kick-off to 2023! There is a 27-page white paper coming Friday in the Dividend Cafe providing the most comprehensive recap of 2022 and forecasts for 2023 we think you will find anywhere. I hope you find it to be a labor of love, too.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Inflation Station Dec 16, 2022

https://bahnsen.co/3uYu6c0

Virtually everything going on in markets right now (or so it would seem) has to do with what central banks are doing (or are projected to do). It certainly is not true in reality – the things happening today that will ultimately determine investment outcomes in years to come will have far less to do with the cost of capital and far more to do with human action – but in the day-to-day volatility of market price levels, I have no choice but to pretend. Well, “pretend” is not actually the right word – it is more an acknowledgment that the world we are living in gives a lot – and I mean a lot – of attention to the Fed in one’s outlook on financial asset pricing and economic health.

The current obsession with the Fed (as in the immediate 2022 and soon-to-be 2023 period) revolves around inflation. We have had a cult-like obsession with the Fed for over 25 years, so it is not inflation that created the Fed’s place in our hearts and our wallets. But right now, inflation is the cause du jour – the rationalization for 24/7 coverage of the Fed, and certainly the Fed’s stated rationale of heavy activity in financial markets.

Much of this is with good reason. Much of it is so misguided that I don’t really believe I am hearing what I hear some days from people I know [used to?] know better. But all the talk about the Fed right now is tied up with all the talk about inflation, and therefore a re-visit on the inflation subject is in order.

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe, and may our investigation of the state of the nation when it comes to inflation bring some revelation about the Fed’s imagination in matters of monetary administration as we pursue our goal of wealth creation.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, December 15, 2022 Dec 15, 2022

So the Dow gave back Monday’s gain today and a tad more, but with today’s -764 point day in the Dow, the market finds itself a couple of hundred points off where it was just last Friday. And the bond market rally continued again today as yields fell again. All of this is carefully dissected in today’s podcast and video …

Dow: down -764 points (-2.25%) S&P: down -2.49% Nasdaq: down -3.23% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.45% (-5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (-0.53%) Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-3.78%) and Communication Services (-3.84%) WTI Crude Oil: $76.20/barrel (-1.38%) Key Economic Points of the Day:

Retail Sales fell -0.6% in November, and even ex-autos were down -0.2%. Much of this was related to the strong number of October, off of which this drop is based. Nominal GDP expectations for Q4 will come down if consumer activity is less than expected. Industrial Production fell -0.2% vs. expectations of a +0.1% increase. Initial jobless claims were down 20k to 211k. Continuing claims are at their highest level since February (at 1.67 million).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, December 14, 2022 Dec 14, 2022

Welcome to Fed day Wednesday on DC Today. Following positive sessions on both Monday and Tuesday leading up to today’s Fed announcement, we gave 142 points back on the Dow but remain up on the week in both stocks and bonds. I fully unpack today’s Fed announcement, the market reactions and implications and several takeaways in my Fed-heavy video podcast that you will not want to miss.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, December 13, 2022 Dec 13, 2022

The CPI report came in well below expectations, and futures were up as much as +830 points pre-market (on top of yesterday’s +520 point rally). The rally basically peaked at the open and then fizzled from there, going negative mid-day, before closing up just a hundred points or so.

Dow: +104 points (+0.30%) S&P: +0.73% Nasdaq: +1.01% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.50% (- 11 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+2.04%); Energy (+1.77%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.17%) – only negative sector WTI Crude Oil: $75.25/barrel (-0.19%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

ASK DAVID “You (and just about everyone else) focus on the three major stock indices when reporting on the daily market. The Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ often move together, but when they don’t what does it mean? How did these get to be the Big Three, and what do each tell us about the market?”

I actually think the difference between the three indices is quite noteworthy, and even if they often directionally move together, the magnitude of moves is quite different. The Dow is down roughly -7% on the year, while the S&P is down roughly -18% and the Nasdaq roughly -30%. This is really a by-product of the Dow being more diversified than the Nasdaq (i.e., broad American sector diversification in the Dow vs. heavy technology penetration in the Nasdaq). Then the S&P is market-cap weighted (that is, the S&P is well-diversified, but because its constituents are weighted to their size, it becomes very, very tethered to a few mega-cap tech companies. The Dow was constructed to be the bellwether representation of the American economy reflected in the stock market that it is. It wasn’t like there were competitive index options in the late 19th century and early 20th century when it was constructed. It has stood the test of time, to say the least.

TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Mark to Market vs. Mark to Fantasy Dec 09, 2022

It’s a crazy time in the ‘bizarro’ world when we have questions that we do about 2023’s economic health, the earnings environment, and financial markets liquidity, and yet one of the biggest stories in financial media for the week centers around a couple of obscure income real estate portfolios. Indeed, one could argue it is truly a ‘bizarro’ world when what appears to be one of the largest frauds and wealth evaporations in history (FTX) provides a pretty glowing media tour while some of the most successful wealth creation and capital markets success in history is given the third degree by the same people.

But today’s Dividend Cafe is not about Blackstone or Starwood or FTX or CNBC, or any other particular asset manager, crypto scam, or media outlet. Rather it is about a broad issue in financial markets that is not understood, needs to be understood, and has no chance of being understood given the fact that the people doing the educating do not understand.

So let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe. Mark this moment. The lesson will not prove to be over-valued.

Blog post here: https://bahnsen.co/3iNX8IJ

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, December 8, 2022 Dec 08, 2022

Dow: Up +184 points (+0.55%) S&P: +0.75% Nasdaq: +1.13% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.48% (+7.9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Technology (+1.59%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-0.50%) WTI Crude Oil: $71.81/barrel (-0.28%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

Initial jobless claims came in at 230k – right at expectations. Continuing claims have inched higher as well, all at once indicating some softening (high since February), but very little to write home about (not a big movement up).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, December 7, 2022 Dec 07, 2022

A DEAD FLAT day in the Dow – up/down +0.00% (you do not see that often), and a whole lot I discuss in the DC Today.

MARKET ACTION

Dow: Up 1 point (LOL) (+0.001%) S&P: -0.19% Nasdaq: -0.51% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.42% (-9.3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Health Care (+0.85%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-0.93%) WTI Crude Oil: $72.43/barrel (-2.48%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

Used vehicle prices hit their lowest level in over a year as outright deflation continues to permeate that marketplace (-15.6% decline since January)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, December 6, 2022 Dec 06, 2022

Lots to cover here in the DC Today … Listen to the podcast or watch the video, and check out the info below!

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -351 points (-1.03%) S&P: -1.44% Nasdaq: -2.00% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.53% (-6.6 basis points) – ferocious bond rally of last month continues Top-performing sector: Utilities (+0.66%) Bottom-performing sector: Energy (-2.65%) WTI Crude Oil: $74.34/barrel (-3.35%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

Business Roundtable CEO Outlook Survey was at its lowest number since Q3 2020, but is way, way above the breakeven level of expectation (that is, still anticipating substantial economic expansion, albeit with a grimmer relative outlook than last year)

The trade deficit came in at $78.2 billion in October, less than the $80 billion expected. But total trade was up on the month and is up +13.7% versus a year ago. The container ship debacle has largely subsided and yet there are still some issues marginally constricting trade (China COVID policy, Russia sanctions, etc.)

Key Economic Point of the Day:

Business Roundtable CEO Outlook Survey was at its lowest number since Q3 2020, but is way, way above the breakeven level of expectation (that is, still anticipating substantial economic expansion, albeit with a grimmer relative outlook than last year)

The trade deficit came in at $78.2 billion in October, less than the $80 billion expected. But total trade was up on the month and is up +13.7% versus a year ago. The container ship debacle has largely subsided and yet there are still some issues marginally constricting trade (China COVID policy, Russia sanctions, etc.)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, December 5, 2022 Dec 05, 2022

Futures opened last night down -40 points and stayed around there into the evening. This morning they pointed to a down -100 open pre-market and worsened a bit from there. The market opened down -175 points and worsened throughout the day, though it came a hundred points off the low late in the trading day The Dow closed down -483 points (-1.4%), with the S&P 500 down -1.79% and Nasdaq down -1.93%

Markets on Friday gave us the full gamut of today’s idiocy, as futures quickly dropped over -400 points upon the God-awful news that more jobs were created than expected last month and that lower-income people were making a little more than they had the year before. Then, hours later, markets finished to the upside after a day of volatile trading. Right now, consensus expectations are for $232/share of earnings for the S&P 500 next year, about 7-8% lower than what their peak expectations were but +5% higher than the $221 level of this calendar year. The best thing I can say is that if we had a recession in 2023, and earnings were up +5% on the year, that would be a rarity. The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.58%, up eight basis points on the day. Top-performing sector for the day: Utilities (-0.60%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Consumer Discretionary (-2.95%) Most cyclical sectors were down the most today; the most defensive sectors were down the least (but all were down)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Our Fed Conceit Dec 02, 2022

The markets rallied dramatically on Wednesday when the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, gave a speech at the Brookings Institute essentially confirming the likelihood of a Fed “slowing” its plans for interest rate hikes. Other speeches this year have seen markets fall a thousand points. The direction of market impact is less important to my point than the impact itself: we have markets that are highly susceptible to speeches given by one person. And when I refer to “markets” I do not merely mean the stock market but also the (much larger) bond market, the (similarly-sized) housing market, and the (gigantic) market for currencies.

Of course, the nature of market movement is not so much about a speech, per se, but rather policy expectations that are derived from a given speech. And the response in financial markets to the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve is hardly where it all stops; Fed decisions impact all aspects of the economy. No person lives a life free of impact from the decisions of the Federal Reserve.

Today I want to unpack this a bit more, at least as much as a commentary of this size will let me. I doubt all of this information and perspective will be new to consistent readers of the Dividend Cafe, but I do believe you will find it relevant to your investing life, and more importantly, relevant to how you think about the economic affairs in which we live.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, December 1, 2022 Dec 01, 2022

December has launched and I have some things to tell you …

MARKET ACTION Dow: Down -195 points (-0.56%) S&P: -0.09% Nasdaq: +0.13% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.50% (- 19 basis points); down 72bps from the 4.22% high of just five weeks ago! Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.29%) & Health Care (+0.24%) Bottom-performing sector: Financials (-0.71%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.28/barrel (+0.91%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

The Fed’s favorite inflation measurement (PCE) came in up just +0.2% on the month, less than the +0.3% expected, and known to be tainted by the misleading contribution of housing’s lag effect (which I have written about extensively). The September gain had been +0.5%, so the stock and bond market responded favorably to the disinflationary trend. Initial jobless claims came in at 225,000, actually lower than expected

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, November 30, 2022 Nov 30, 2022

A monstrous rally ensued today when Jerome Powell verified Fed plans to slow down on rate hikes. Do I think this makes sense? Well, I will tell you what I think about all of it in today’s podcast and video!

MARKET ACTION

Dow: +737 points (+2.18%) S&P: +3.09% Nasdaq: +4.41% The S&P 500 ended the month of November up +5.37% and the Dow ended up +5.7%. Combined with October Q2 has been monstrous, so far anyways. 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.61% (-14 basis points) Top-performing sector: Technology (+5.03%) Bottom-performing sector: Energy (+0.56%) – one of those days where the WORST sector was up this much WTI Crude Oil: $80.45/barrel (+2.88%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

Q3 GDP growth was revised upward to +2.9% annualized (from +2.6% before) Job Openings fell in October to 10.3 million, down 353,000 from the month prior and 760,000 less than a year ago

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, November 29, 2022 Nov 29, 2022

An interesting but not especially noteworthy day in markets today, and we have all the commentary you need right here

MARKET ACTION

Dow: +3 points (+0.01%) S&P: -0.16% Nasdaq: -0.59% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.75% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+1.71%); Energy +1.28% Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-0.98%) WTI Crude Oil: $78.64/barrel (+1.81%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

The Case Shiller Housing Index dropped for the third month in a row, now down -13% since August. ASK DAVID “How fair is it to compare the relationship between FTX and Alameda Research to the relationship between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve? Alameda was using client money to buy up FTX’s token (FTT) in order to bolster the price of the FTT. How much different is that from the Fed using taxpayer money to buy US treasuries?”

~ Marty

There are a few pretty substantive differences worth noting. First, the Fed doesn’t actually use taxpayer money to buy treasuries, though it is taxpayer money that is being paid back to the Fed (that is what a Treasury bond is). But the main difference is that the Treasuries on the Fed’s balance sheet are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, and no principal or interest payment has been missed in nearly 250 years. Alameda was backed by FTT, which is worth less than a beanie baby.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, November 28, 2022 Nov 28, 2022

Market Action

Futures opened last night down -50 points or so and were down -160 points into the evening. This morning they were pointing to a down -200 point open pre-market. It is safe to say embedded in market action today is come “catch up” after last week where Wednesday is always a “low participation” day, Thursday saw markets closed for the holiday, and Friday is a token open day where markets close three hours early. The market opened down -50 points and just steadily worsened throughout the day. The Dow closed down -497 points (-1.45%) with the S&P 500 down -1.54% and the Nasdaq down -1.58%.

The market’s challenges today were clearly related to concerns about the supply chain and some contagion effect around the disruptions in China (see Top News Stories below) The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.67%, down two basis points on the day Top-performing sector for the day: Consumer Staples (-0.31%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Real Estate (-2.80%) There is a lot to be said on the crypto/FTX implosion of the last couple weeks, and I believe even more will be said in the weeks ahead. BlockFi, another large crypto exchange, has now filed for bankruptcy as well

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, November 22, 2022 Nov 22, 2022

Today we are one day closer to cutting into that turkey, enjoying some homemade gravy, and spending some quality time with those nearest and dearest to us. A great time of the year to be grateful, and I, Trevor Cummings, am personally grateful to be filling in for David Bahnsen today. I wish you all a wonderful Thanksgiving, and I encourage you to take a moment to watch or listen to what’s happening in markets today (links below).

And off we go…

Full Blog post here: https://bahnsen.co/3V7jsLO

Topics discussed: Dow: +397 (+1.18%) S&P: +1.36% Nasdaq: +1.36% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.76% (-6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+3.18%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (+0.46%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.20/barrel (+1.15%)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It's the Income, Stupid! Nov 18, 2022

I actually hate the title this week, because the word “stupid” really is pretty mean. I try not to be mean because I think it is wrong to be mean (I can elaborate if needed). However, in this case, when James Carville famously said, “it’s the economy, stupid,” in the context of what voters cared about in the 1992 election, he basically created a new adage for how we say that a particular thing is really the thing.

And that is the topic of this week’s Dividend Cafe – the thing in dividend growth investing, and clarifying some important terminology and concepts around the thing. And as you shall see today, the thing is growth of income.

Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe!

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, November 17, 2022 Nov 17, 2022

Another volatile day with the Dow closing flat after being down nearly -400 points. More to say here:

MARKET ACTION Dow: -7 points (-0.02%) – had been down over -300 points at the low and -400 pre-market S&P: -0.31% Nasdaq: -0.35% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.76% (+7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Technology (+0.21%) and Energy (+0.12%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-1.79%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.94/barrel (-4.26%) Key Economic Points of the Day:

Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 222,000 – not a big move from the week before or variance from expectations Single-family starts in new housing construction dropped to 855,000, down -6% on the month and -35% from post-COVID highs

ASK DAVID “What do you think the impact would be on the stock and bond market if the Fed formally changed their inflation target from 2% to 3%? I assume it would be risk on for equities?”

~ Mike S.

Yes, it would be. But they won’t. And they don’t need to – they basically already did in 2020 with their adjustment to the 2% standard (that is, they no longer target 2%, but rather an “average” of 2%, meaning they can let things run hot in perpetuity to “blend” to 2% depending on how the math before or after works. In other words, they gave themselves “flexibility.”

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, November 16, 2022 Nov 17, 2022

It was a very choppy (up-down) day in markets, to say the least. The chart itself is testimony to how much the market could not make its mind up today. A few nuggets to chew on here …

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -39 points (-0.12%) S&P: -0.83% Nasdaq: -1.54% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.69% (-11 basis points) Top-performing sector: Utilities (+0.87%) – only other sector up was Consumer Staples Bottom-performing sector: Energy (-2.15%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.32/barrel (-0.32%) Key Economic Points of the Day:

Core retail sales were up +6.5% year-over-year in October and up 0.7% on the month (double what was expected). Industrial Production declined -0.1% in October, with mining and utilities output leading the way lower

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, November 15, 2022 Nov 15, 2022

MARKET ACTION Dow: Up +56 points (+0.17%) S&P: +0.87% Nasdaq: 1.45% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.76% (- 10 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+1.78%) Bottom-performing sector: Materials (-0.11%) WTI Crude Oil: $86.86/barrel (+1.15%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

The Producer Price Index only rose +0.2% in October, half of the +0.4% monthly increase that had been anticipated. And much of that lower figure came from a decline of -0.1% in services, the first decline in wholesale services costs in two years

ASK DAVID** “Is purchasing gold and/or silver a good investment?”

~ Cindy W.

My view has been for quite some time that it is a non-productive investment. What I mean by then is that it does not generate any cash flow and does not have any internal earnings stream, so the value becomes a matter of speculation or supply/demand around use. But gold is not really owned much for industrial use, and even its cosmetic use is somewhat limited, so those who own gold or silver for investment purposes must defend the notion of gold being a sort of inflation hedge or currency proxy. And maybe it will be that someday, but that day is not the last 42 years, where gold is down by -50% relative to inflation – a stunning and shocking fact to all who hear it. I will also point out that the most common thing I have been told over the years is that gold gives us a hedge or substitute against crazy unstable monetary policy. Well, trillions of printed QE dollars since 2012 later, gold is lower than it was a decade ago. This should have been the golden age for gold; instead, it has many wondering what exactly the thesis is.

At the end of the day, gold can go up a lot, and it can go down a lot, but it rarely does what people seem to want it to do when they want it to do it.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, November 14, 2022 Nov 15, 2022

Today’s DC Today is monstrous and requires you to listen to the whole thing. Election aftermath. Fed expectations. Inflation changes. Huge rally days. So much updating.

TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The State of Big Tech Nov 11, 2022

Greetings from Nashville, Tennessee, where I will be necessarily giving you a shorter Dividend Cafe today, but one you may find quite interesting nonetheless.

I am sure some of you would prefer we just stay out here in Nashville. But alas, we live in crazy times.

And speaking of crazy, I want to talk today through a few charts, quickly, that cover the subject of energy investing and technology investing. The angle is a bit different than many choose to take.

Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday November 8, 2022 Nov 08, 2022

MARKET ACTION

Dow: +334 points (+1.02%) S&P: +0.56% Nasdaq: +0.49% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.13% (-8.4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Materials (+1.68%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-0.30%) – only negative sector WTI Crude Oil: $88.55/barrel (-3.53%)

Key Economic Point of the Day: The October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell from 92.1 to 91.3

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday November 7, 2022 Nov 07, 2022

Market Action

Futures opened down nearly -200 points last night but got back nearly to the flat line by bedtime as Japan and Hong Kong markets were rallying. Then this morning, futures pointed to a +170-point open pre-market. The market opened +80 points and went steadily higher throughout the day. The Dow closed up +424 points (+1.31%), with the S&P 500 up +0.96% and the Nasdaq up +0.85%.

It would be malpractice not to start with this chart. One thing I have said over and over is that I believe equity volatility does not stabilize until the ascendant dollar reverses. Friday’s drop in the DXY was the worst day for the dollar since 2015 and the second worst day since the financial crisis (h/t Jim Bianco). Now, the dollar was still UP on the week – we are hardly in a trend of dollar reversal. Volatility is still the story, not a weakening dollar. For now.

We are up to 85% of companies reported for the quarter now (Q3 results), and revenue growth looks to be +11% year-over-year with earnings growth of +4.3%. And the earnings outlook for 2023 has only come down from $252/share for the S&P 500 to $233, meaning either this will end up being a very, very mild recession, or else there is more room to go for downward revisions of 2023 profits. The ten-year bond yield closed today at 4.22%, up six basis points on the day Top-performing sector for the day: Communication Services (+1.83%) and Energy (+1.73%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Utilities (-1.94%) I am not sure that the ESG movement is proving to be much about ideology. It is apparently a lot more about performance, after all. As ESG-popular FAANG stocks have gotten hammered and ESG-hated energy stocks have thrived, new money into ESG products has evaporated.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

One of These Things is not like the Other Nov 04, 2022

I appreciated the very kind words I received about last week’s lengthy Dividend Café, and hope the message coming out of that annual week of meetings was clear and useful for readers. I struggled with where to take Dividend Café this week as last week’s covered so many topics, the Fed’s announcement this week was no real surprise at all, and I desire to write less about the Fed in the Dividend Café. On that last part, it isn’t going to happen – and that’s not merely because of my not-so-secret obsession with monetary economics. I may believe (and I assure you, I do) that the Fed policy framework of this era has given a way higher role to the Fed in modern economics than is appropriate, but believing it shouldn’t be is different than believing it isn’t such. So yes, the Fed is going to be a heavy theme in Dividend Café for years to come (whether I like it or not).

But if there is one thing I am obsessed about more than monetary economics, it is dividend-growth investing. And I think you will find some observations about dividend equity investing to be very relevant to the paradigm in which we find ourselves.

So today is not quite Fed-free, but it is rich in dividends, the very rewards I want for investing clients. Let’s jump into the Dividend Café …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday November 3, 2022 Nov 03, 2022

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -146 points (-0.46%) S&P: -1.06% Nasdaq: -1.73% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.15% (+9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.04 xxx%) Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-3.00%) and Communication Services -2.83% WTI Crude Oil: $87.95/barrel (-2.29%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

1.485 million continuing claims (up 47k, most since March) ISM Services came in at 54.4 – still expansionary but a point lower than expected, and with New Orders dropping 4 points ASK DAVID “I enjoy listening to your podcasts – thank you for the insights!

I am sitting on cash – about 75% of my investable assets. What would be a good philosophy of when to get back into the market and how? I am a believer in dividend based investing.”

~ Adrian

One first has to start with the basic principles – not getting invested in a dividend equity portfolio with cash is a riskier than getting invested in one. The reason not to invest immediately is either (a) A belief about market timing that is not grounded in reality, or (b) A desire to not invest all at once at an inopportune time (that being revealed to you in hindsight, not in advance). I reject reason A and am sympathetic to reason B, as long as one does the needed self-assessment to see that reason B is psychological and emotional, not financial or rational. So then if the desire to mitigate timing risk is psychologically helpful, I advise deploying no less than 50% at once, and then the rest either over a period of time periodically (say, 1/10th of the remainder each month for ten months), or tactically (each “bad” down day in markets deploying more).

I have no statistical or empirical argument for one over the other as it pertains to how to deploy the second 50%, but feel strongly about getting 50% of uninvested cash at once.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday November 2, 2022 Nov 02, 2022

I would have to go back and look at the exact shape but I believe the market action today was quite identical to the last time the Fed announced a known rate hike, where the market bad been down, rallied huge to the upside on the news, sold off substantially, rallied all the way back, then sold off into the close with no new news. It’s all just so, so dumb. But I have more to say than that here …

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -505 points (-1.55%) S&P: -2.50% Nasdaq: -3.36% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.09% (+4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Utilities (-1.02%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-3.79%) WTI Crude Oil: $89.35/barrel (+1.11%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

ADP private sector number came in at +239k for October vs. 198k expected. BLS jobs report is Friday

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday November 1, 2022 Nov 01, 2022

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -80 points (-0.24%) S&P: -0.41% Nasdaq: -0.89% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.04% (-3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+0.99%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-1.81%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.57/barrel (+2.36%) Key Economic Points of the Day:

ISM Manufacturing fell to 50.2, just barely in expansion mode, and the weakest figure since May 2020. New Orders and Backlogs reflected contraction, and only 8 of 18 sectors saw growth on the month. But … Job Openings went HIGHER in September, coming in at 10.7 million (almost a million higher than the 9.8 million expected)

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday October 31, 2022 Oct 31, 2022

Futures opened basically dead flat last night and stayed there into the evening. Bright and early this morning futures pointed to a down -100 point open pre-market and it worsened from there.

The market opened down -100 points or so and didn’t move much above or below that throughout the day. The Dow closed down -128 points (-0.39%) with the S&P 500 down -0.75% and the Nasdaq down -1.03%.

The Dow hit 28,661 at one point October 13, it closed as low as 29,203 on October 10, and yet today sits at 32,732, up +14% from mid-month lows. We are a bit over half way through earnings season (263/500 companies reporting) and sales growth is +10.3% year-over-year (a bit ahead of expectations and earnings growth is +4.2% (a bit behind expectations). Excluding the energy sector, though, earnings growth in the S&P 500 is negative year-over-year. Right now consensus expectations are for $235 of earnings from the S&P 500 in calendar year 2023. The number was $250 in the summer, so it has come down, but really not very much. Operating margins have declined from about 17% plus change to 16% plus change. For the third time this year we have a spike of breadth where the % of companies advancing over a 10-day period is in the 99th percentile (it also happened in January and July). In those other two occasions the momentum was not sustained. As good as things have been the last few weeks, only 40% of companies are above their 200-day moving average. And in some sectors the breadth of companies seeing price improvement is really, really low.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Climate and Weather in Markets Oct 28, 2022

I have mentioned all week how excited I am for this week’s Dividend Cafe, and now here we are. I have explained why our annual week of money manager meetings is so important before, and have written weekly recaps before as well. But this is different. This week not only comes in the midst of a bear market (as the 2008 and 2011 trips did, as well) but was also the best-scheduled meeting we have ever had, meaning, the caliber and topical significance of many of the managers and economists we were in front of was top-shelf. Combine that with a dinner with one of the true legendary CEO’s in America, and it was an absolutely tremendous week.

It also comes at a very important time. I do not mean that because stocks are in a bear market, or interest rates are rising. I mean it because of the circumstances behind both of these things, years in the making, with years of profound investment ramifications ahead. I believe a lot of perspective was gained on this year’s trip that needs to be applied to a decade of thoughtful guidance, not merely covering a month or a quarter.

I hope you will find the information shared as interesting, actionable, useful, and provocative as I do. And, of course, reach out with any questions at any time. This is the stuff we live for, and I am confident this Dividend Cafe is one you will be glad you read.

So with that, let’s all jump in, to this “money manager week recap” edition of the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday October 27, 2022 Oct 27, 2022

I returned from my meetings in Palm Beach at the end of the day yesterday and hit the ground running (both figuratively and literally) very early this morning. I love doing the DC Today. Special thanks to Brian and Trevor for filling in, and off we go with an action-packed recap of today …

Market Action

Dow: Up +194 points (+0.61%) – but off of a +550 point high S&P: -0.61% Nasdaq: -1.63% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.92% (-9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Industrials (+1.14%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-4.12%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.58/barrel (+0.72%)

Key Economic Points of the Day:

Real GDP grew in Q3 at +2.6% annualized rate as net exports grew in light of energy exports being up and Chinese imports being down. Personal Consumption and Business Investment were up, but only a tad. New Orders for Durable Goods were up +0.4%, below the 0.6% expectation

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday October 26, 2022 Oct 26, 2022

Today was a mixed bag, where we continue to see varying results from the Dow and the Nasdaq. Some market pundits have dubbed this as value vs. growth or categorized these baskets of equities as a difference in “duration.”

Regardless of how you describe it, we saw some downward pressure resulting from less-than-favorable earnings reports on a handful of large tech companies, and some continued positive momentum from the sectors leading the market on the year (Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Staples, etc.).

Market Action

Dow: +2.37 (0.01%) S&P: -0.74% Nasdaq: -2.04% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.01% (-9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+1.36%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-4.75%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.12/barrel (+3.26%) Key Economic Points of the Day:

The trade deficit widened in September by 5.7% (from $87.3 billion to $92.2 billion) There is a lot you could potentially dissect here, but the simplest explanation is that a strong dollar means buyers (exports) can buy less of our goods, and US purchasers (imports) can buy more goods, which expands the deficit – falling exports, rising imports. New home sales fell month over month (from 677,000 to 603,000), but we were still slightly above the average estimates of 593,000 For perspective here, new home sales peaked in August 2020 at 1.04 million Although the number of homes sold declined, the average sale price did rise from $436,800 to $470,600 (slightly below the record high of $479,800)

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday October 25, 2022 Oct 25, 2022

We notched a third day of gains in markets today, up now 11% on the S&P from the intra-day lows a few weeks ago in a broad-based rally in both stocks and bonds, and I have plenty to go around the horn in my video and podcast links below. I have also sprinkled in a few takeaways from over 20 portfolio manager meetings last week in New York to add to your listening pleasure. Take a listen, and reach out to me, Brian Szytel, with questions.

Market Action

Dow: +337 points, +1.07% S&P: +1.63% Nasdaq: +2.25% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.10% (+ 13 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate +3.94% Bottom-performing sector: Energy -.05% WTI Crude Oil: $84.92 barrel +.40% Key Economic Points of the Day:

Consumer sentiment came in lower than expected at 102 versus expectations of 105. The Richmond Fed index came in weaker than expected today at -10. The US Dollar was lower on the day by about 1%, along with interest rates across the yield curve that both aided today’s equity rally. Terminal Fed Funds Rate shown ending north of CPI in all of the last rate tightening cycles is shown below. Today we are at 3.3% versus 8.2%, and while those rates will likely converge, we just aren’t there yet folks…

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday October 24, 2022 Oct 24, 2022

I think we have a meaty one today, so here we go with this Monday edition of DC Today …

Off we go …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Indexing Nightmare Oct 21, 2022

Greetings from New York City, where I am two hedge fund meetings away today from being done with a week of extraordinary meetings, insights, and collaboration with our portfolio management partners. Some key takeaways are being summarized for next week, and a deliverable will be made available. More importantly, c It has been everything I hoped it would be this week, and more.

It is a shorter than normal Dividend Cafe this week because of the meeting load (and post-meeting download time). But I think what I do today you will find useful and valuable, as I use a Q&A format to answer a few key questions about the current investing state of affairs.

Let's jump into the Dividend Cafe ...

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday October 20, 2022 Oct 20, 2022

Trevor Cummings here, and I am honored to be joining you for the third day in a row. As mentioned yesterday, David Bahnsen will be back tomorrow with his weekly commentary – Dividend Cafe. Additionally, I invite you to subscribe to my weekly writings at thoughtsonmoney.com. Now, off to the updates from this busy Thursday market day…

Dow: -91.01 (0.30%) S&P: -0.80% Nasdaq: -0.61% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.232% (+10.3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.36%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (- 2.51%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.71/barrel (+0.19%) Key Economic Points of the Day: • Liz Truss has resigned as U.K. Prime Minister ◦ This was the shortest tenure in British history ◦ Note, her Finance Minister was dismissed from his post after just 38 days • Jobless claims came in at 214,000 on an expectation of 230,000 ◦ The impacts of Hurricane Ian on the data looked to be much lighter this week ◦ The total number of people collecting unemployment benefits sits at 1.39 million, near a 50-year low ◦ In simple terms, the labor market remains tight • As to be expected, U.S. existing-home sales were down ◦ The figures came in at 4.7 million, nearly on the dot with expectations ◦ This is eight consecutive months of decline and, when compared to September 2021, a slide of 23.8% ◦ Reminder, mortgage interest rates are skyrocketing, the general population is on edge regarding inflation and recession, and this combination of anxiety and affordability is slowing down activity • The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index published today ◦ This regional look is meant to give a sneak peek at what the national ISM data might look like next month ◦ the numbers came in at -8.7 on an expectation of -5 (note, any number below 0 represents declining business conditions)

TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday October 19, 2022 Oct 19, 2022

Welcome to DC Today where I, Trevor Cummings, will be your guest host again on this fine Wednesday. Please join me for the video or podcast (links below), as there is quite a bit to cover and discuss today. David Bahnsen will be back on Friday with his normally scheduled program – Dividend Cafe

Dow: -98.54 (-0.32%) S&P: -0.66% Nasdaq: -0.85% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.131% (+13.3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.94%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.56%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.63/barrel (+3.39%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

Today we saw the published data for new housing starts and building permits

Housing starts came in at 1.4mm on an expectation of 1.47mm
- Down 8.1% seasonally adjusted and down 7.7% year-over-year in September
- Looking at the attribution, we see new homes fell 4.7% and new apartment construction fell 13.1%

Building permits came in at 1.56mm on an expectation of 1.5mm

Rising 1.4% in the month of September
Permits for new homes fell 3.1%, with apartment construction rising 8.2%

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, October 18, 2022 Oct 18, 2022

This is Trevor Cummings joining you as your guest host on DC Today. You can find my weekly commentary at www.thoughtsonmoney.com. Also, please join me for the DC Today video and podcast – see below.

Market Action

Dow: +341.67 (1.13%) S&P: 1.16%% Nasdaq: 0.9% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.994% (+2 basis points) Top-performing sector: Industrials (+2.36%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.54%) WTI Crude Oil: $83.22/barrel (-2.6%) Key Economic Point of the Day: • Industrial production in September rose 0.4% which was a surprise to the upside – estimates were 0.1%. Additionally, August was revised slightly to the upside, as well; a revision from -0.2% to -0.1%. • The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) monthly confidence fell 8 points to 38 in October, making 10 consecutive months of decline. Note, the index was at 80 last October and this 10-month decline tops the record of consecutive declining months set in ’06/’08.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, October 17, 2022 Oct 17, 2022

Greetings from the world’s greatest city where we kicked off money manager meeting week with significant discussions with the CIO, the taxable fixed income team, and the levered loan group at Voya, and this afternoon met with the real estate team, private equity group, and head real estate folks at Blackstone. It won’t be this many meetings every day this week (it better not be), but it was a great way to start off the week. My summary of the whole week will be prepared at the end of the week for public consumption.

Futures opened last night up +100 points and stayed positive throughout the night even as Japanese markets struggled. By bedtime, we were about +150 in overnight futures and at the crack of dawn this morning (now on eastern time zone), futures were pointing to a +300-point open.
The market opened up +500 points and got as high as +675 points, and stayed very level throughout the day.
The Dow closed up +550 points (+1.86%) with the S&P 500 up +2.65% and the Nasdaq up a massive +3.43%.
UK bonds rallied violently this morning as yields collapsed, no doubt the key correlative event to the U.S. stock market rally overnight. The 30-year and 20-year dropped by a stunning 40 basis points, and each point on the yield curve from three years up to ten years was down by almost the same. Anyone who bought British bonds last week made about two years’ worth of return in about 24 hours.
The ten-year bond yield closed today at 4.01%, up less than a basis point on the day
I am not sure what to think about the measurement of bond returns in 1721 when churning butter was the most profound technological advancement of the decade, but I do know this: 2022 is going in the history books for global sovereign bond returns

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Bond Market Cares About You Even if You Don't Care About It Oct 14, 2022

I hear often from investors who are focused on the “fun” parts of risk-asset investing that they “don’t care” about the bond market. Truth be told, it doesn’t do a lot to excite me, either. Most professional bond managers I know seem to be borderline Communists (just kidding), and the bond market itself lacks the human action that I believe is embedded in things like operating enterprises.

But the bond market cares about us whether or not we care about it, and that is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe. It is a message I like a lot, and I believe if you jump into today’s Dividend Cafe, you will come out more enlightened about economic growth, stock market pricing, interest rates, and the decisions we face as investors.

So let’s do just that.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, October 13, 2022 Oct 13, 2022

Okay, so one of the largest intra-day market moves on record (from down -550 to up +950 – a 1,500 bottom-to-top move today). So there is market action AND inflation/economic action to unpack, and you have come to the right place:

MARKET ACTION

Dow: Up +828 points (+2.83%) – was down -550 points at the low S&P: +2.60% Nasdaq: 2.23% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.95% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Financials (+4.14%) – I am not going to take the time to look it up, but I will safely guess that this is the best day in years for Financials; in fact, I bet HALF of this would be the best day of 2022 for financials … NOTE: Energy was right behind it at +4.08% Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (+0.98%) WTI Crude Oil: $89.25/barrel (+2.27%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

CPI (headline) increased +0.4% for the month where +0.3% had been expected. Headline inflation is up +8.2% on the year vs. a peak of +8.9% several months back. Core CPI (ex food and energy) was up +0.6% in September. Energy prices fell -2.1% but food prices increased +0.8%. It is all about food inflation in the aggregate data. Services is the source of increased inflation. Rents were up +0.8% on the month and primary residence impact is up +7.2% year-over-year. This is simply not true in the present tense but the lag effect is the driver here as we shall all see in a couple months’ time. The Fed has NO influence on this, but Health insurance prices were up a staggering 2.1% on the month and are up +28% on the year Airfare is up 43% on the year (base effect from limited travel a year ago) Goods prices were FLAT – slowest year-over-year increase since May 2021 (+6.6%) Used car prices down -1.1% on the month Clothing down -0.3%

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, October 12, 2022 Oct 12, 2022

The market zigged and zagged all day and was down -100 and up +200 before closing down a tad in the final minutes of trading. Lots to say about the Bank of England in today’s podcast …

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -28 points (-0.10%) S&P: -0.33% Nasdaq: 0.09% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.89% (- 4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+0.75%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-3.42%) – the collapse in this sector in the last month is absolutely unprecedented WTI Crude Oil: $87.09/barrel (-2.53%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

Core PPI (ex-food and energy) came in exactly in line at +0.3%. August’s PPI was revised downwards. September’s PPI headline read (w/ food and energy) was +0.4%. The year-over-year headline PPI is +8.5% vs. +8.7% last month. Processed goods prices fell for the third month in a row. Prices for transportation and storage fell -0.2%. Goods down, services up.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, October 11, 2022 Oct 11, 2022

An odd day (old school) as the Dow started down a bit, rallied way higher (up +400 points at one point), fell into negative territory, then closed up +36 as old-guard defensive sectors did very well (Real Estate, Consumer Staples, Health Care) and the cool stuff got hit. More to say on everything here.

MARKET ACTION

Dow: +36 points (+0.12%) S&P: -0.65% Nasdaq: -1.10% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.937% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+1.02%) and Consumer Staples (+0.93%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-1.63%) and Technology (-1.52%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.68/barrel (-2.73%)

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday October 10, 2022 Oct 10, 2022

I am not sure I have complained enough about the absurdity of having a day when the stock market is open and the bond market is not. Columbus Day is this odd anomaly where they honored the great explorer in financial markets in the most convoluted way possible – by taking away banking transactions and bond activity but by having stock exchanges open (for those who have not read my prior writings on such a thing, it is highly distortive to markets, as many financial actors function in both spaces at once, so lose use of the left hand while they continue to use their right hand). That said, today was such an absurd day.

I did write a Dividend Cafe Friday with more information about the bear market in which we find ourselves, and the historical lessons that may be useful as we proceed through this. The video is here with the same comments on podcast here.

I was on CNBC this morning giving my feedback to comments the media was running with from Jamie Dimon (the CEO of JP Morgan). My first comment was spot on. My second comment was spot on. And my third comment was about to hit the ball out of the park, when all of a sudden …. (you’ll have to see).

Off we go …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

History Has Spoken Oct 07, 2022

I wouldn’t say that I like this, but I would say that I understand it. But last week’s Dividend Cafe was, in just a few days, the most widely read Dividend Cafe I have ever written. I hope that is because clients and readers flocked to the philosophical takeaways of a deeper reflection on bear markets like the one we are in now. But I know that the ratings of financial TV networks skyrocket higher in bad times and that it has a lot more to do with the reality of human nature than anything else. Fear gets clicks and views.

I don’t do fearmongering. My Dividend Cafe last week was actually the opposite of fearmongering. I sought to present the highly rational case for a real glory in the aftermath of bear markets for investors who behave well. Nevertheless, I can understand that the general interest in the topic is largely related to the fear and emotion that goes with the uncertainty of the moment.

This week I am keeping the topic alive, partially because the current bear market did not end in the last five days but also because there is more to be said about the history of all this and the future. And I believe you will find both illuminating in the uncertainty of the moment.

So let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday October 6, 2022 Oct 06, 2022

A little market move down today – nothing to write home about. But more information on big picture you will want to listen to right here …

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -347 points (-1.15%) S&P: -1.02% Nasdaq: -0.68% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.83% (+7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+1.82%) – fourth day in a row Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-3.30%) – second day in a row; rare and nasty WTI Crude Oil: $88.90/barrel (+1.26%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

Initial jobless claims came in at 219k, higher than the 203k expected (though continuing claims came in a tad less than expected) Mortgage rates at 16-year high … (6.75%)

ASK DAVID “Given the tight labor market and recognizing the number of people that left the workforce over the past 2+ years, is it reasonable to expect a decrease in unemployment numbers any time soon? If it’s not reasonable to expect a decrease in unemployment numbers, do you think the Fed should use this criteria as a benchmark for monetary policy?”

~ Ed D.

Unfortunately, I do believe unemployment will go higher, and I do believe it will be relevant to Fed policy. Technically their dual mandate includes full employment, so if they pursue a monetary policy that increases joblessness I believe they will reverse course. I don’t think it is the benchmark they say it is, but I do think right now it gives them cover in non-effective monetary tightening (if anyone still believes the Fed Funds rate is causing inflation I have a bridge to sell them, assuming I can get the parts and labor).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, October 5, 2022 Oct 05, 2022

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -42 points (-0.14%) S&P: -0.20% Nasdaq: -0.25% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.75% (+13 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.06%) – third day in a row top sector Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-2.25%) WTI Crude Oil: $87.97/barrel (+1.69%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) came in at 56.7, still well into expansion and above the expectation but less than month’s levels. Services are expanding while Goods are slowing.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, October 4, 2022 Oct 04, 2022

The second violent rally day in a row took place today, with the market up nearly +6% to start off October, erasing all of the downturn of the last ten days of September (for now). More to say in our daily podcast, of course!

MARKET ACTION

Dow: +825 points (+2.80%) S&P: +3.06% Nasdaq: +3.34% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.63% (-2.2 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+4.34%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (+1.53%) WTI Crude Oil: $86.30/barrel (+3.17%) Key Economic Points of the Day:

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday October 3, 2022 Oct 03, 2022

A big rally day after a bloodbath week in markets. Lots to say on markets and more markets today.

The thing most on everyone’s mind right now is surely the raging bear market (in both stocks and bonds). I addressed it thoroughly in Friday’s Dividend Cafe and really encourage you to read it here. The weekly video is here, and the same comments from the video are in podcast form here. The underlying theme is that our pathos very understandably sees times like these as negatives, while our logos must be reminded of how wonderful times like these prove to be.

I was on Varney Friday, was on Kudlow’s radio show (WABC) Saturday, and on Charles Payne today talking markets.

Off we go …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Glory of Bear Markets Sep 30, 2022

Today’s Dividend Cafe is sort of the reason the Dividend Cafe started. I didn’t call it Dividend Cafe back then, I didn’t have a website for it, I didn’t post it on social media, it wasn’t re-published on a multitude of financial websites, there was no podcast, there was no video, and it didn’t have nearly 20,000 subscribers. In fact, there couldn’t be any “subscribers” because there was no organized list – just me sending an email from Microsoft Outlook manually to clients I thought would like to hear what I had to say. And the catalyst? A bear market.

The week I began doing this “weekly commentary” we were not in an “ordinary” bear market. In a ten day span Fannie and Freddie had been taken over by the government, Lehman Brothers had declared bankruptcy, AIG had gone down, Merrill Lynch ran into the arms of Bank of America, and my own firm at the time, Morgan Stanley, was in its own existential (but soon to solved) crisis. Mortgage bonds were collapsing, housing prices were utterly collapsing, and yes, the stock market was in freefall.

Today I write to talk about bear markets. Not societal collapse. Not the mother of all credit implosions. Not a deep and unbearable recession (the “great” recession). But bear markets. The kind where stocks drop and investors do one of two things. We are going to talk about those two things, and I hope when you are done reading you will not merely feel better about this bear market, but even just a little bit excited (as counter-intuitive to human nature as that may be).

So let’s jump on in to the Dividend Cafe, as it does what it was always created to do – present the unvarnished truth in matters of macroeconomics and investor behavior, and do so towards the greater end of the very purpose for which we at The Bahnsen Group work.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday September 29, 2022 Sep 29, 2022

We reversed much, although not all, of yesterday’s broad-based rally in today’s market sell-off – what one day giveth another taketh away. I unpack it all in a deep capital markets dive for you in today’s video and podcast links below that you’ll not want to miss.

Dow: -458 points (-1.54%) S&P: -2.11% Nasdaq: -2.84% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.77% (down 6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (- .13%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-4.07%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.47/barrel (- .83%)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday September 28, 2022 Sep 28, 2022

A rally day on Wall Street and a thorough explanation in today’s DC Today podcast!

MARKET ACTION

Dow: +549 points (+1.88%) S&P: +1.97% Nasdaq: +2.05% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.73% (-23 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+4.40%) Bottom-performing sector: Technology (+0.92%) – worst sector still up by almost 1%, and this was heavily weighed down by Apple being negative WTI Crude Oil: $81.88/barrel (+4.31%) Key Economic Point of the Day: National Rent Report showing national residential rents down -0.2% month-over-month, first monthly median decline in over two years

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday September 27, 2022 Sep 27, 2022

Markets took a decent lead at the open but couldn’t hold it, and there is some more to say about the bond market in today’s daily podcast!

TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday September 26, 2022 Sep 26, 2022

This is a long DC Today with a lot more market talk than you are used to, largely because the “legacy” version is only one day a week and I am purposely trying to pack a lot in. The last week has been brutal for markets and I have a lot to say today to quantify it, and a lot coming Friday in Dividend Cafe to qualify it.

I was the market guest on Maria’s Wall Street over the weekend, discussing all sorts of aspects of the market and investing environment.

Dividend Cafe on Friday dug deeper into foreign policy and geopolitical threats and their potential ramifications to markets. The video is here and same comments on podcast here.

Off we go …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Enemy of our Enemies in the Market Sep 23, 2022

The stock, bond, and housing markets are in pretty real distress right now as higher rates re-price risk assets, and general instability in monetary policy becomes the natural consequence of years of excess and irresponsibility.

And yet, everyone is already talking about it, making it a far less compelling candidate for this week’s Dividend Cafe. I have covered plenty on monetary policy this year and it will remain a primary macroeconomic focus in my shop for years to come. And as far as the general equity market distress playing out, I do think a general primer on bear markets next week will be useful (I have already begun writing it in my head).

But this week, I believe we are due for a topic that may be more dramatic than even stock market volatility, inflation, or Fed breakage. I think that through the lenses we normally think about various international affairs, particularly as it pertains to countries we consider enemies of the United States, we are missing some economic and market-sensitive ramifications that will be important to better understand.

So grab your globe but not your passport, and let’s devote this week’s Dividend Cafe to a few matters of international significance. I confess up front that it may not all cheer you up, but I can promise you this: It is not going to be the standard level of depth you are often exposed to.

Let’s dive deeper, and jump in, to the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday September 22, 2022 Sep 22, 2022

The market really doesn’t want to close strong these days, going from +100 to -100 in the last ten minutes of trading today.

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -107 points (-0.35%) S&P: -0.84% Nasdaq: -1.37% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.71% (+20 basis points!) Top-performing sector: Health Care (+0.51%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-2.16%); now down -27% on the year, just 1% away from the down -28% of Technology but not nearly as bad as -36% Communication Services WTI Crude Oil: $83.45/barrel (+0.60%) Key Economic Points of the Day:

The Bank of Japan left their policy rate unchanged (as expected) Initial jobless claims came in again at just 213,000, and last week, it was revised down to 208,000. The four-week average is now the lowest since early June.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday September 21, 2022 Sep 21, 2022

I’d love to say “Fed comments caused the market to drop today” but it would be untrue. Within seconds of the Fed release the market went from +200 to -200, but then the market went back to +250, and that was all AFTER the Fed announcement, the release, and the Powell press conference. THEN, after all that, the market unraveled into the final thirty minutes of trading.

Dow: -522 points (-1.70%) S&P: (-1.71%) Nasdaq: (-1.79%) 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.53% (-4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.34%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-2.37%) WTI Crude Oil: $83.04/barrel (+0.12%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Existing home sales dropped -0.4% in August and are down -19.9% from a year ago

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday September 20, 2022 Sep 20, 2022

A volatile day to the downside in markets today as traders await comments from the Fed tomorrow and as bond yields bring down risk asset valuation.

Dow: -313 points (-1.01%) S&P: -1.13% Nasdaq: -0.95% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.56% (+7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Technology (-0.51%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.57%) WTI Crude Oil: $84.16/barrel (-1.38%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Housing starts came in at 1.575 million annualized for the month of August, a whopping 125k above expectations. Nearly all of the excess vs. expectations were in multi-family, with single-family coming in the second lowest since mid-2020.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

An Updated Outlook on Energy Sep 16, 2022

It is not accidental that I write so much about the Energy sector. First and most applicable, we are big energy investors at The Bahnsen Group, carrying an allocation in our Core Dividend portfolio that is triple the weight that the S&P 500 has. What is happening in energy markets has profound relevance for the economy at large, for all people in their everyday lives, and across all national borders. Few things are more globally relevant than access to energy.

But if I am being totally honest, even apart from the large financial exposure we have to the energy space, I love this subject because energy fascinates me. It should fascinate anyone who spends just sixty seconds thinking about the fact that natural resources around for thousands of years with almost no known utility have created a more significant increase in the quality of life for more people than anything under the sun. “Transformed energy” sits at the heart of all economic activity, as my friend Louis Gave is fond of saying.

You cannot destroy energy, which is both a law of the universe most of us learned in elementary school and, these days, apparently a vital message for investors. In the physical universe, it merely means energy is constantly changing – usually for the purpose of doing work – but in the investing world, I believe it means something different but perhaps not entirely disconnected.

So let’s do a little autumn analysis of the energy sector, where we are, where we may be going, and see what may edify us in the discussion. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday September 15, 2022 Sep 15, 2022

Special thanks to all who have reached out to say how much they like and appreciate the new format. Between the addition of a podcast, a video, a transcription of the podcast, and the continuation of a daily written synopsis, along with the legacy version on Monday and the real meat of Dividend Cafe on Friday, I think the vast majority of readers have been extremely positive in their feedback. Ironically, the one or two nasty emails we got (you should see the stuff my communications team receives sometimes) were not even from clients, soooooo …. I do recognize that sometimes people like routine and familiarity (I am one of them), but change is part of life, and these changes were done to add mediums that are most popular and sought after, and to harmonize the workload with the reality of someone who has worked 16-18 hours per day for 25 years. Beyond that, I’m pretty much done talking about it …

Okay – off we go!

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -173 points (-0.56%) S&P: (-1.13%) Nasdaq: (-1.43%) 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.45% (+3.7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Health Care (+0.55%) Bottom-performing sector: Energy (-2.54%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.30/barrel (-3.62%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday September 14, 2022 Sep 14, 2022

The day after the market sell-off you had a small move higher in each equity index but I unpack it all and then some here …

MARKET ACTION

Dow: +30 points (+0.10%) S&P: +0.34% Nasdaq: +0.74% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.41% (- 1 basis point) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.85%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-1.39%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.68/barrel (+1.57%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Even as the Consumer Price Index came in a bit higher than expected yesterday, the Producer Price Index dropped -0.1% in August (consensus was for no change)

ASK DAVID “When you refer to the futures market predicting a 88% chance of a 75bp rate hike or whatever the percentage and outcome may be, how is that determined?”

~ Don D.

The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) makes a market in fed funds rate futures. Real people using real money to buy real futures contracts on what the real rate may be at real future intervals. This futures market is the gold standard of measuring market expectations around the fed funds rate. ON DECK I will be on set co-hosting for an hour tomorrow with Stuart Varney (9am-10am ET) on Fox Business.

CHECK OUT I was on set with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business early this morning talking energy, inflation, markets, growth, and more. A worthwhile interview!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday September 13, 2022 Sep 14, 2022

The Consumer Price Index (Headline CPI) came in +8.3% over where it was a year ago. Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) came in at +6.3% versus a year ago. Food prices and the lagging effect of shelter cost put upward pressure on prices while energy prices and used cars put downward pressure on prices.

TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - September 12, 2022 Sep 12, 2022

It’s pretty anti-climactic that I announce the new DC Today plans on Thursday and then we get to Monday and … it’s the same DC Today you are used to … But that is the idea – no difference in the written program for DC Today on Monday, but with the addition of this daily podcast (and video) …

TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Their Weakness is Not our Strength Sep 09, 2022

I first want to thank everyone for the extremely positive feedback last week on the somewhat unique Dividend Cafe juxtaposing USC football and markets. It was fun to write and, at least for some of you, appears to have been fun to read.

But for those who prefer the serious stuff, we are back to normal this week, and I think it is time I cover a topic that comes up a lot anecdotally, but I don’t think has ever received headline treatment in the Dividend Cafe. And yet, it is one of the single most important topics in the field of economics and finance …

I refer to currencies, the U.S. dollar in particular, but really the overall global dynamics of currency and what it all means to investors. Currency ramifications impact all investors all the time, yet we rarely contemplate why or how. Today I want to play around a bit with some aspects of this critical topic in the present reality.

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

When Markets Fight On! Sep 02, 2022

Why in the world would I waste the precious soundwaves of Dividend Cafe to recap day-by-day market action when this hallowed ground is supposed to be reserved for what actually matters in markets (and life)? Because we are entering football season, of course, and how this all connects is about to be readily apparent to you.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

When Is It Time to Sell? Aug 26, 2022

Long-time readers of Dividend Cafe know that the real intent of this weekly commentary is to delve into the macroeconomic – the big picture – the high-level stuff that impacts investor decisions and behavior. Today in honor of the obsession over Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (being delivered shortly after I hit “submit” on this commentary), I want to talk not an iota about the Fed, monetary policy, or really any aspect of macroeconomics.

Rather, I want to actually dive into a question that is hyper-practical – more micro than macro – and that is when to sell a stock. I was in the process of answering a question about this topic for the Ask David section of The DC Today when I realized it really warranted the full Dividend Cafe treatment.

So here we are – a Fed-free Dividend Cafe dedicated to the ever-practical issue of sell discipline. We’ll discuss Jackson Hole in Monday’s DC Today (only because I have to), but for today let’s talk about how dividend growth equity investors like ourselves think about the right time to sell a stock. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Top Five Questions of Summer 2022 Aug 18, 2022

We have a fun Dividend Cafe for you this week, with by far the most important things on my mind in the summer of 2022 getting all of the attention. This is a short, easy read, and easily digestible for anyone looking to make heads or tails of the current market conditions. I will spare you further introduction and jump right into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Natural Way of Seeing Things Aug 12, 2022

I kind of like this week's Dividend Cafe. We are going to do a very quick look into how the Fed fuels Japanification, but more specifically, how low-interest rates hurt growth. It is one thing (and a more severe one at that) that monetary policymakers generally view artificially low rates as a really good thing to fuel economic growth, but at this stage in my life and career, there is little I can do about that. It is another thing altogether that so many investors think is a great thing. Today I want to do a quick lesson on why it is not just wrong but a dangerous fallacy, that is, wait for it, undermining economic growth.

Speaking of growth, many want to know when the Emerging Markets will deliver it. I think you will benefit from that lesson today as well. Unfortunately, the EM gain is likely to be Europe's pain, so get ready for a case of hot-cold.

And finally, I want to add to last week's talk about "gross domestic product" in how we think about economic growth. You may find it illuminating.

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Economic Truth-Telling in an Age of Narratives Aug 05, 2022

One of the hardest things about being an economic commentator in this day and age is that economic commentary requires nuance, and this day and age requires narratives. There is to be a single narrative about X, and any variation around, above, beneath, or of the exact X narrative is heretical or at least unappreciated.

It is a tough way for society to function, but it is an especially tough way to do economic analysis.

I do not merely refer to the inevitable complexity involved in topics like these that are, well, complex. You are smart readers, and I do my very best (sometimes better than others) to make complex topics a bit more comprehensible in my writing and speaking. Readers and listeners can judge how effective I am there, but I do try. No, this is not about complexity, but nuance, which basically can be quite simple at times; it is just that it doesn't fit into the script of a narrative. It isn't binary. The nuances of proper economic analysis aren't always fit for a forced narrative.

Such is the moment we are in, and today I want to answer your questions about the state of the economy. If I do my job right, everyone will be mad at me when all is said and done (I should fail at landing in either of the primary narratives of the day). Such is the plight of an economic truth-teller in 2022 ...

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Inflating Clarification on Inflation Jul 29, 2022

I really did mean to write this entire piece last week but simply ran out of time and space. I will give you a recap today of last week’s takeaways but then make sure this week’s wraps a bow around our updated point of view on inflation.

This is not merely a philosophical exercise. There is an abundance of empirical support provided for my position, and I think you will find a lot of the information about the present state of affairs surprising. You may draw a different conclusion on the matter than I do, but my conclusions on what this means for the decade ahead have profound implications for citizens and investors alike. Again, this can’t be armchair stuff for a real asset allocator; this is what we call fiduciary responsibility.

So grab a cup of coffee and get comfortable. This is one of those truly Dividend Cafe editions. Jump on in…

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Inflating Clarification on Inflation Part 1 Jul 22, 2022

It has been a year and a half since I first took up the inflation/deflation debate as a matter of contemporary debate (a part 1 and a part 2). As much as I wished then (and now) that the great economic fight we would have for the next thirty years was inflation, I believed then (and now) that the great economic fight we will have for the next thirty years is better referred to as deflation (a term that itself will require more precise explanation. Some more in-depth updates on the subject have also been produced with a deep desire to really explain and contextualize the state of affairs.

Nevertheless, the responsibility of clarity in messaging is with the writer, not the reader, and while there is only so much I can do to make sure those reading it understand it, I have a pretty strong desire to keep doing more.

Let me just leave the introduction there and dive into this topic. I suppose I do hope some clarification comes out of this, but truth be told, I am more passionate about just reiterating the great economic message of our time. My agenda is not academic, and it is not political. I am responsible for actual client capital, which is to say, the instrumentation by which actual human goals and needs are met. I take it very, very seriously. And this subject sits at the center of what I believe is a generational economic challenge.

Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Fool's Game Jul 15, 2022

I send this week’s Dividend Cafe at the end of a 24-hour trip to Las Vegas, where I spoke at a conference yesterday. 2,600 people have come to the 110-degree city of sin for the purpose of hearing various economic and political musings, and one such forum of musings was a panel with myself, Steve Forbes, George Gilder, and Mark Skousen discussing, of all things, my book! It was a surreal experience to be next to Gilder, whose Wealth and Poverty was a transformative book in my intellectual development as a pretty darn young guy (you would actually think less of me if you knew how young I was when I read it).

Anyways, by the time you read this, I will be on a plane back to New York City Friday afternoon, where I will be working all of next week before returning to Newport Beach next weekend.

We are living in a time where there have been more bad ideas than money to invest in (or at least bad prices at which to buy those ideas). Soon we will see more money than people acting on bad ideas. But right now, a little parsing out of what the laws of contrarian investing mean is in order, and I think you will find it fascinating.

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Inflation vs. Recession vs. Investing Common Sense Jul 08, 2022

The fundamental tension in the economy today, and less directly so, in markets themselves, is really simple: Is a recession coming that slows down price inflation? That question is simple to identify as the economic tension point of the moment, but it is not simple to answer.

One reason for this complexity is that some of the premises brought to the question are not to be taken for granted. And this is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe – what do we know about current economic conditions, potential economic developments, and eventual economic results? What do some think they know that could be wrong? And what is an investor to do through all of this?

I have some thoughts to share that can hopefully bring clarity to much of this, and some of those thoughts are merely clarifying, while others may be non-consensus views. Either way, convictions run deep at The Bahnsen Group, as does humility. That is another “tension” that we hold gladly.

Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Independence, Economics, and Markets Jul 01, 2022

Happy Independence Day weekend to you and yours. Or for those without much historical interest, Happy Fourth of July.

Today’s Dividend Cafe is not going to dive into the state of the market, though I can promise you that Tuesday’s DC Today will have plenty to say about the first half of 2022 and our expectations for the second half.

But for today, I want to look at this Independence Day holiday that we celebrate in our country, and analyze what the Fourth of July has to do with markets and economics. I make no bones out of the fact that I love my country, and much have that has to do with understanding what this country is – an idea, and an exceptional idea, at that. How the exceptional idea of America ties into markets, economics, and investing, is where we are going in today’s Dividend Cafe. Jump on in – there will be time enough for BBQ and sun this weekend.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Chewing on the Four E's Jun 24, 2022

I’ll be very honest with you – I prefer single-topic Dividend Café issues. I wrote a multi-topic weekly commentary for many years before moving to a “mostly” single-topic orientation, and I have never loved writing Dividend Café more. I feel that the weekly information quality and value is higher with a singular focus each week, and I think the “variety” style works better in our daily market bulletin that is Dividend Café’s cousin, The DC Today.

But today’s Dividend Cafe is a bit different. There are a few “big” issues that people are bringing up daily, and I want to do a little multi-question fireside chat with you.

So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe … I promise you’ll find something of interest, and maybe even intellectually transformative!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/David L. Bahnsen - June 21, 2022 Jun 21, 2022

Volatility continues and certain market sectors are reeling, along with investors.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Is the Fed about to Break This? Jun 17, 2022

Once again we find ourselves in the midst of a tumultuous week in the markets, and yet with bigger fish to fry in the Dividend Cafe? What could be bigger than a 1,400 point drop in the market on the week, and a 3,000 point drop in the last two weeks (note: I am hitting “send” on this before the market opens on Friday, and pre-market action Friday does appear to be to the upside right now, but you know how that goes)?

Well, for one thing, I think most of the commentary I have to offer on the specific things taking place this week in markets was well-covered in each edition of The DC Today this week. If day-to-day market distress is distressing you, I hope you will turn to The DC Today as a resource. Reading it cannot make the market go up any more than my act of writing it can, but hopefully, it can provide clarity around where this volatility fits into expectations for investors who have real financial goals in their lives.

So the bigger fish to fry I refer to are not about the specific Fed meeting of this week, or this most recent interest rate hike, or even my broader theme about the carnage in “shiny object” investing … It has to do with discussions around a potential deeper level of concern in financial markets, and what they may look like. I hope after reading this week’s Dividend Cafe you will feel a bit smarter, a bit more informed, and a bit more at peace.

Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Next Bad Thing Jun 10, 2022

I purposely wrote this week’s Dividend Cafe before the CPI number posted this morning at 8:30 am ET. Lots of traders were getting in front of this late Thursday, and a market that had rallied up +2,000 points in the last two weeks was down -1,000 points in the last five days and is now down a lot as markets open Friday.

We are in a period of short-term traders trying to front-run the Fed, but more particularly, trying to front-run those who they think are trying to front-run the Fed. What I mean is not as complicated as it sounds: The basic belief is that if inflation data looks worse, for longer, the Fed becomes more Volcker-like in their hawkish tightening, and that hurts risk assets; therefore, if we see a whisker of “more inflationary than expected” some will start selling, and we should sell before they sell.

Well, good luck with all that.

Today I am going to look at what could make this market get worse, not in a “traders are going to do this” kind of way, but in a real systemic, significant, macro kind of way. It will turn into a two-parter, no doubt. But let’s look behind the headlines of the day, the CPI print of the moment, and the Fed actions of next week. Let’s dive into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

My Eyes Have Seen Midstream Energy's Resurrection Jun 03, 2022

I am doing three things in the Dividend Cafe today that I pretty much never do. For one thing, I am blatantly ripping someone off (you’ll see; it’s not as bad as it sounds). Secondly, I am getting pretty biographical (though I guess I do that every once in a while; last week being the most recent example). And then finally, I am really focusing on one pretty specific and even granular investment topic. Now that, I do every now and then – but not like this. You’ll see.

So jump on into the Dividend Cafe to see me rip off someone else’s work, talk about a very personal and biographical aspect of my life, and apply it all to a really specific investment lesson and principle – one that should not be missed.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Housing Comes Center Stage May 27, 2022

I really do not know how today’s Dividend Cafe is going to be received. I obviously believe in every word of what I have typed or I wouldn’t have typed them, yet I have found two things to be the case in my efforts at thought leadership in matters of markets and economics:

(1) People sometimes do not like it when I veer off of a stock market focus, and

(2) People do not like hearing what they do not want to hear

The first one is more problematic when it comes to things like the bond market or public policy or monetary policy or alternative investing – the excitement of the stock market sometimes has to take a backseat to other matters that are absolutely integrally connected to it!

But the second one is what I am worried about today. In over 20 years of professionally stewarding client assets, I have never seen investors be as emotional about any “asset class” as they are about housing. And if all that meant was “people are nostalgic and protective about where they live” – that would be one thing. But that is not what I mean. Opinions about the residential real estate market are, shall we say, sometimes laced with emotion, sometimes perhaps delusion, and often with various presuppositions that are hard for me to make sense of at times.

Housing is back front and center in financial discussions, and all I want to do today in the Dividend Cafe is make sense of it, and give you some wisdom and insights that I believe will be useful in a holistic commentary of the day. So to that end, I work. We’ll still be friends if anything I say bothers you.

Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe for a special Housing edition …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

All the Questions You've Been Dying to Ask May 20, 2022

I have done something really fun with today’s Dividend Cafe – at least fun for me. I have taken the most common questions I receive these days from clients, in emails, in meetings, in interviews, etc., and compiled a set of answers that walk through the big issues of today. I think you will find it valuable.

I doubt I cover everything on your mind here, so by all means fire away with new questions (questions@thebahnsengroup.com). You may just see it covered in The DC Today, and you will certainly hear from me personally.

In the meantime, let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Beached Whale of Doom vs. Reality May 13, 2022

I had fun writing today’s Dividend Cafe and I think you may very well have fun hearing (and reading) it. I also think some of you may be mad at me for it. I hope I am wrong. I believe there are a multitude of messages in the Dividend Cafe this week that are vital for investors in this current era, and the one that is to come. I also feel these messages are timely. Jump on in …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Booze Free Punch Bowl May 06, 2022

Market volatility is on a roll, with the VIX now double the level it started the year at. This week saw the biggest up day we have had all year, followed the very next day by the biggest down day of the year.

A lot is happening, and we can and will unpack it in today’s Dividend Cafe, but we will not leave it there. The takeaway today will be what to do about it (or not do about it), and that is why you should enter the Dividend Cafe. Knowledge followed by action. To that end we work.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Some "R" Words are Worse than Others Apr 29, 2022

Recession. The dreaded word, “recession.” For those who have lost their job in one, it can feel like a depression. For those who kept their own job in one but saw their portfolios drop, or saw neighbors or loved ones lose their jobs, or experienced a decline in income or business revenue, it may not have had the existential punch that it did for others, but it generates unpleasant memories of unpleasant times.

There is a lot of talk about a recession right now, some of it imbecilic, some of it overtly political, and some of it, quite substantive and important. But if the Dividend Cafe exists to bring simplicity and honesty to topics that are often spoken of with too much complexity and/or abundant dishonesty, the task at hand is readily apparent.

And so we will look at recession reality in current times, when, what, and why, and unpack the investment implications on all of it. I will always do my best at the simplicity part (I know I miss the mark there sometimes). I will be unrelenting in the honesty part. But as far as the pleasant part of it all, well, let’s just say my focus is on the honesty part.

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/David L. Bahnsen - April 25, 2022 Apr 25, 2022

Volatility, Rate Hikes, Inflation, and so much more on this Dividend Cafe Special Edition Podcast

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

We Work, or We Suffer Apr 22, 2022

If there is one thing that animates me it is the application of real-life economics to investing. I have always been obsessed with economics – both theory and application – but it is in more recent years that I have really found it a calling to synthesize the foundational truths of economics to financial markets.

And truth be told, that calling transcends the applications of economic theory to financial markets. I believe properly understood economics has profound implications for all aspects of human living. My extra-curricular endeavors in economics (the book I wrote last year, the class I teach at the high school I co-founded) are all extensions of this passion I have for a free and virtuous society. But yes, applying these things to financial markets is my real passion, and the inability and disinterest the financial advice community has for applying economic principles to markets is a constant source of irritation.

Today’s Dividend Cafe is about the labor market – the state of jobs in America. For 99% of the media and even economic analysts these days this is an econometric subject. In other words, it is a data point that provides an input to a spreadsheet, and from there carries some numerical relevance to another input (i.e. if wages are here or unemployment is here, then consumer spending is possibly going to be here, etc.). Worse, it is often just a mere political data point, perhaps an even more imbecilic understanding of work than even reducing it to an economic data point.

But economics is the study of human action around the allocation of scarce resources. Our understanding of what is happening and not happening in the world of work will be improved to see it through the lens of the human person. Political and econometric reductions will tell us almost nothing, and in fact, may tell us things that aren’t true at all.

Investors and actors in financial markets need a fuller understanding of current realities in American labor. To that end, we work … (see what I did there). So jump on into the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Landscape for Private Markets Apr 14, 2022

In this market-shortened week I thought a shorter Dividend Cafe may be appropriate, especially as we prepare for a long weekend and the Easter holiday. More on that below …

And not only do I think I controlled the length of this week’s Dividend Cafe (within reason), I also took advantage of the week to dive into a topic that is almost entirely avoided by the media and investing public. I can’t really explain why we mostly ignore private equity and private credit when we discuss financial markets. I understand public stock markets have a certain sensationalism to them, not to mention clear pricing visibility that facilitates a lot of noise. But the private markets are just as much the real economy as public markets, and if the heart of free enterprise is where there is human action, I assure you private markets are deep into the capture of human activity (for good or for bad).

But it is not enough to “talk” about private equity and private debt as if they are either “good” or “bad” investments. There is a complexity here that requires a bit of unpacking, and the unpacking of complexity is the business of the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Something To Be Certain About Apr 08, 2022

From the seat of a person who dispenses financial advice for a living, one could be forgiven for believing there must have been a time in the recent past that was quite idyllic. Why? The constant chorus of those concerned about “new instability” or “these difficult times” or “all this uncertainty” all implies one thing: That there must have been a time where stability and certainty ruled the roost.

Today we are going to do a little history lesson, and by the end we’ll draw a few conclusions. The point will not to be wrap current economic or political circumstances in a pretty bow – but rather, to contrast the present to the past with history and logic.

The conclusions will either concern you or encourage you. But the information will be informative.

So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Honesty and Policy Apr 01, 2022

I love the topic of this week’s Dividend Cafe. I believe one of the most powerful people in global finance gave me the chance to address a topic today that desperately needs to be addressed. And through this topic we have profound takeaways to inform our understanding of economics, and to apply such understanding to the emphases we put in our portfolios.

I will leave the introduction there, and hopefully with enough suspense to push you into the Dividend Cafe. This is important stuff.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Country No One is Talking About Mar 25, 2022

We all know that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been the biggest story of 2022 thus far, not just for markets but for the entire news cycle. Ten minutes do not go by on the news without hearing the word “Russia” or “Ukraine” – for good reason (there is a war going on, you know).

And there are other countries that do not exactly hide in the background, either. China is never far from our dialogue, both because of their role in the COVID pandemic that swept the globe in 2020 and because of their sheer size as an economic powerhouse. In fact, U.S.-China relations may be the most talked about geopolitical story of the last ten years (also for good reason).

But there is another country that is rarely discussed these days, and perhaps offers as many economic implications as Russia, Ukraine, and China. And when I say economic implications, I mean the full portfolio of categories – geopolitical, financial markets, and macroeconomic.

And that country is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG Investment Committee - Russia, Ukraine, and Markets Mar 17, 2022

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

From Growth With Love Mar 11, 2022

I hope you will find this to be a special Dividend Cafe. No, this week’s Dividend Cafe doesn’t dare to bring the vast military sophistication of people who tweet all day long to you, but maybe we do one better.

We don’t talk about Russia/Ukraine at all.

Actually there is some true connectivity between much of what I discuss today and how it interacts with current events, but at the core of the present market story is the challenge of growth. Military conflicts, elevated uncertainty, spikes in commodity prices, and other undesirables do not help the growth story. But they are peripheral pieces to the story, not the story itself.

And today in the Dividend Cafe we are going to talk about growth, and all we are doing to make sure we never get enough of exactly what we need.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The New Rules of Diversification Mar 04, 2022

The fog of war continues in Ukraine with the entire world watching. The path to some immediate resolution has mostly closed, and expectations are for a complicated and extended process. Prayers are for minimal bloodshed and certainly for a limited scope to where the conflict goes. But few analysts are able to formulate a scenario where this ends well.

The dollar is rallying. The Euro is collapsing. Oil is skyrocketing. U.S. equity markets are experiencing significant gyrations up and down day by day. I believe those five sentences summarize the five most important themes in financial markets right now (the collapse of the ruble and the Russian equity markets does not make the list, because who cares).

I could certainly provide commentary today on the history of how markets have responded to various geopolitical distresses over the years, and maybe that will be needed in the weeks to come. But I believe longtime readers of Dividend Cafe know that I believe a properly constructed asset allocation is supposed to account for the inevitability of, well, distress. It could be geopolitical, or medical, or monetary, or economic, but distress is not new – only the specific reasons for the various particular distresses that come at different times. Today we are going to look at the reality of addressing distress in one’s portfolio through asset allocation – what it means in the current moment, how some elements of this have changed, and why it hasn’t stopped mattering.

I wouldn’t say this is a specifically Ukraine-focused Dividend Cafe, but I would say that it may feel like it if it is understood correctly. We hold principles for the purpose of applying them during times of distress. The Ukraine event is a time of distress. Today’s Dividend Cafe is about the principles that exist before, during, and after such.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Fog of War Feb 25, 2022

I have pretty much written each Friday’s Dividend Cafe on the Friday morning of the day you receive it every single week for over a year now. If there is an exception to that over the last 12+ months I do not remember it. I used to write the Dividend Cafe in bits and pieces throughout the week and then “pull it all together” on Friday mornings, but a little over a year ago I changed my approach and I have been happy with the results.

Well, this week taking advantage of the Monday holiday and some extra peace and quiet in the very early morning hours of a day that the market was closed, I wrote what would maybe be half of a Dividend Cafe on the subject of capital, liquidity, and interest rates. I loved where it was going and felt it was a good base for a needed Dividend Cafe on a crucial subject at this point in time.

And yet, here I am on a Friday morning, with images of Russian rockets striking all over the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on my television set, and I am not even opening the draft of that work from Monday morning. Yes, I will be able to use it next week (or at some future date), but this is certainly one of those rare weeks where Dividend Cafe warrants a nod to current events.

Markets have experienced volatility in the build-up to events of this week and in the events themselves, though I would argue it has been much less volatile than I would have expected. The mere presence of market volatility is not the reason to devote a Dividend Cafe to this week’s subject. I don’t much care about market volatility other than the frustration I feel when we don’t get enough of it.

So welcome to a Dividend Cafe devoted to Russia/Ukraine, and may your investor knowledge and appreciation of global affairs grow as a result. To that end we work.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Right Question to Ask in the Prediction Business Feb 18, 2022

There was plenty of talk about Russia/Ukraine in DC Today this week as well in the unreliable news cycle, and there really isn’t any “new news” to report. I am not sure we will be talking about Russia/Ukraine in six months, but I am very sure we will be talking about inflation, the Fed, and interest rates in six months. I want to do my best to make those six months (and more) of conversations be as worthwhile as possible.

The Dividend Cafe is here to help that effort.

We are going to look at what some of the right questions are to ask today and let it go from there. I believe this discussion will give you some better information then you might find elsewhere, but it also puts me out on a limb with some actual forecasts. The very concept of forecasting bothers me, usually because those who do it are charlatans and grifters. But I have nothing to gain in these forecasts; rather I am trying to point us towards a context and understanding that will likely not prove exactly right in the details, but I think more helpful than thinking about 2021’s battles during 2023’s war.

Jump on in to the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Getting Fed Matters Right Feb 11, 2022

Long-time readers know that I have strong opinions about the Fed, about monetary policy, about its relevance to economic conditions, and of course about its implications for investment decision-making.

Today we have enough misinformation out there about the Fed that it may be a chance to actually use that word appropriately. And this misinformation comes in a period of elevated interest. The stakes are high.

This week in the Dividend Cafe we are going to see if we can’t make more sense of what the risks are and are not around current Fed actions. And in so doing it will allow us (force us?) to touch on a handful of peripheral subjects that matter. It’s an easy read, digestible, and actionable.

So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What's in a Stock Price? Feb 04, 2022

We are living in interesting times for equity investors, and I have no reason to believe those times will get any less interesting any time soon.

But one thing I would love for clients of The Bahnsen Group, and to a lesser extent, all readers of the Dividend Cafe is for there to be an understanding of what equity investors are really after. We all know “buy low, sell high” – and I even wrote a book once on how I think investors ultimately best monetize their participation in the stock market.

But I think a little more understanding of what one is paying for when one buys a stock may be useful (which of course, also implies a definition for what they are selling when they sell one). And if I do this right, maybe, just maybe, we will gain a better understanding of how to navigate the next phase of markets. To that end, we work.

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/David L. Bahnsen - January 31, 2022 Feb 01, 2022

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Energy Famine Has Become a Feast Jan 28, 2022

I understand it may seem odd to devote a Dividend Cafe to the particular subject of the Energy sector in a week of surreal market volatility and media obsession over the Fed. But in fairness, I write about the Fed almost every week, plus four days a week in The DC Today, and the entire subject of monetary theory underlies all that we do in capital allocation at The Bahnsen Group. Our nuanced views on the role the Fed currently has in financial markets are known, and to co-opt my planned Dividend Cafe subject yet again to cover the thrilling story of the Fed moving interest rates exactly how we knew they would, is not going to happen.

But the Fed was not the only story (non-story) this week. Markets are in a pattern of daily incoherence as traders, algorithms, novice investors, speculators, and other such inconveniences work through the challenges of a paradigm shift. What the futures say at night has nothing to do with what they will say in the morning which has nothing to do with what they will say at the open which is fully disconnected from intra-day activity which then leads to a totally unpredictable market close. Then, rinse and repeat.

So I’ve written about our low opinion of “shiny object” investing, and the avoidance of such has a lot to do with the way our January has (thus far!!??) gone. But the energy sector is up +18% this month as of press time in a YTD market that has a Nasdaq down -15% and S&P 500 down -10%. We need to look at that. Is Energy becoming a new “shiny object”? Is the sector a trade or a long-term opportunity? What aspects of energy investing appeal to us right now? Where do environmental, political, and macroeconomic concerns fit in? These subjects all deserve their own Dividend Cafe, and that day is today.

So jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What is Shiny Becomes Dull Jan 21, 2022

I telegraphed last week a special Dividend Cafe on energy today, and I reiterated that plan several times in DC Today this last week. But as I began pulling it all together in my hotel room here in Washington D.C. at 4:00 this morning, it occurred to me that we appear to be living through a market doing much of what I have been talking about for a very long time, and that I have an obligation to make Dividend Cafe as current and relevant as possible. The treatment on the Energy sector I want to present must be written, but it can wait one more week. That topic is no less significant, but from a timeliness standpoint, the market events of the week (and really of all 2022 thus far) provide a golden opportunity to reinforce some more practical investment lessons right now.

As a general rule I do not like the idea of making Dividend Cafe a weekly response to headlines or market circumstances, and have mostly avoided doing so for quite some time now. But this week’s Dividend Cafe is not a mere “this week in markets” play. Rather, I want to use the obviously predominant story in financial markets to illuminate a few key elements of our thinking at The Bahnsen Group. In other words, the inspiration is some current market action, but the lesson is far, far more evergreen.

And I think it is going to really surprise you.

So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Glass is Not Half Full Jan 14, 2022

2022 is just two weeks underway, other people are joining me in no longer saying Happy New Year, the NFL playoffs are finally starting (a week later than ever before), and the college football champion has been declared. Coming into the new year was the time to forecast what we expected for the year – but now, we are actually in it.

And speaking of those forecasts, I will keep the white paper in front of you here. But I think we are due for a little update on a few big macro issues, so update you we will. From the glorious spot of the 2022 TBG offsite where our entire team has spent the last day and a half meticulously working on improving our business (in some really significant ways, I will add), today’s Dividend Cafe covers a lot of bases.

I have written ad nauseum about the fact that much of what we discuss when we discuss macroeconomic outlook is really about the state of debt in our economy. Much of what we think and ponder about the Fed comes down to debt considerations. There is much to evaluate on the periphery, but debt levels sit at the middle of a lot of these peripheral concerns, and I will tell you that I am seeing more and more people make truly faulty assumptions that I believe are headed to a bad place.

This is a topic that will illuminate and inform your understanding of many things, and the only place I know to do it is in the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/David L. Bahnsen - January 10, 2022 Jan 10, 2022

Topics discussed:

Tech Reckoning
Sector Positioning for 2022 (Tech, Energy)
Tax implications for 2022
Inflation in 2022
Dividend growth investing in 2022

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG Investment Committee - A Year Ahead, A Year Behind Jan 07, 2022

CIO and Managing Partner - David L. Bahnsen Deputy Managing Partner - Brian Szytel Deputy CIO and COO - Deiya Pernas

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Fed Talks My Book Dec 17, 2021

Markets followed up their monstrous week by dropping a bit to start this week, then rallying back to even mid-week, to sit somewhere between flat on the week and down ~100 points or so as I prepare to go to press.

The Nasdaq, though, didn’t fare so well on the week, dropping -600 points (-4%) as of press time and warranting a distinction in this week’s Dividend Cafe on how one may want to think about their assets in the Fed regime ahead.

This one week aside, and the never-ending obsession with the Federal Reserve well-baked into our societal financial fabric, there is a lot to say about a changing of the guard at the Fed, and this week’s Dividend Cafe is devoted to just that. Some things are, no doubt, changing, but other things, as you will soon see, are not changing at all. Understanding all this may be the best Christmas gift I can offer you this glorious holiday season.

Slide down the chimney into this week’s Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

One Big Week and It's Not Different Dec 10, 2021

As I type on Friday morning well before the market will open for the day, the Dow is up ~1,200 points on the week, basically right back to where it was the day before the Omicron news and market sell-off, and the futures are pointing upwards for today as well (of course, anything can happen on that front).

A week ago, I devoted the Dividend Cafe to discussing why I felt the Omicron story was a bad joke of a market mover, and we walked through a little COVID Market history. But I didn’t end on a sanguine note – I reminded you that there are vulnerabilities in the markets and that chief among them was the anti-fragilities created by excessive monetary interventions, and of course, basic valuation concerns where some euphoria may be overflowing.

Today we’ll leave Omicron in the rearview mirror where it belongs and where the media has conveniently left it just 10 days or so after dramatically different assertions. But we’ll dig deeper into a couple of things that warrant our understanding – an understanding that is not the same as concern or worry.

Come on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/David L. Bahnsen - December 6, 2021 Dec 06, 2021

Topics discussed:

Volatility
The Fed
Energy
Omicron Variant

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Confusion in the Unfazed and Hysterical Dec 03, 2021

It has been a wild week in the markets, with the -900 point drop of last Friday (Thanksgiving weekend) followed by a +235 point gain Monday, a -650 point drop on Tuesday, a -460 point drop Wednesday (after being up +500 points earlier in the day), and then a +620 point increase Thursday. As I type Friday, we are down -120 points, having been up +160 points earlier, so currently (at press time) reflecting a -330 point drop on the week. Now that’s a lot of ups and downs for -330 points, don’t you think?

But market ups and downs are not a problem for real investors, so why do I mention this volatility at all? Don’t people invested in the stock market (and more specifically, in the earnings streams of the great companies that make up the market) know that markets do this, and in fact, normally experience much more volatility than we have seen this year?

I would hope so. I know our clients do (how could they not?). But the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe is not the mere reality of market volatility, especially when such volatility is a mere 3% or so off of market highs. I mean, really. No, the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe is those who may be unfazed by market valuations and euphoric concerns, but go hysterical over the omicron variant.

In other words, we want to look at that which does not play into our thinking, and that which does, and why we think the media and so much general investor consciousness have their fears and non-fears exactly backward.

So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe. It will be worth your time.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Happy Thanksgiving!! Nov 24, 2021

I know it is not the edition some of you look forward to most each year, devoid of such enticing topics as monetary policy and market valuations, but it is one I genuinely enjoy writing each year. Today’s Dividend Cafe captures some Thanksgiving reflections from yours truly, the author of each week’s Dividend Cafe but also the Founder and Managing Partner of this firm. I remain in a daily state of overwhelming gratitude for so, so much, that this Dividend Cafe Thanksgiving reflection is just a cake walk to write.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Confidence in the Future Nov 19, 2021

This week I did something a little unique. I dedicate the Dividend Cafe to the topics du jour in the space of prices, labor, production, and the Fed – basically, all the stuff everyone is talking about (and should be talking about). But rather than it seeming like a single, monolithic essay on it all, I think I have it broken up into bite-sized pieces that will be easier to understand and take in.

We live in interesting times, and if this week’s Dividend Cafe helps you to understand these times better than you did before reading it, I will be a happy man. Let’s dive in and see if that happens.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/David L. Bahnsen - November 15, 2021 Nov 15, 2021

Market movers and shakers discussed in today's episode.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Algebra of Inflation Nov 12, 2021

There is a lot of anxiety in the economy right now even though the unemployment rate is incredibly low, and nearly every metric on the planet is looking good (besides elevated price indexes). We went month after month last year with people telling us (and many of them seemed to really, really enjoy saying so, mostly because they are awful human beings) that no one would ever shop again, fly again, or “demand” again. The consumption side of the economy was dead behind a brutal pandemic, they said. And we would all be wise to stop paying our office leases, buy some comfortable couch clothes, order food delivery, get an exercise bike delivered, and sit around the house binge-watching TV and just waiting for it all to end.

But now the tune has changed, a lot. Not that drama and intensity – that is the exact same. It’s just the culprit is now the opposite. Now things are too hot, too much activity, too much demand, and prices are too high. That we are supposed to take advice now from the people who zealously told us the opposite 12-18 months ago is odd to me.

But I digress. Pricing pressures exist in the economy and when folks are not talking about Congressional legislation or Fed policy, they are rightly focused on that. Today I want to explain why they are focused on the right thing (price inflation), but for the wrong reason, and more importantly, with the wrong solution. And yes, with an eye towards the right conclusion in your portfolio.

Off we go …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Debt and You Nov 05, 2021

Most of the attention in the markets this week was on the Fed’s announcements Wednesday – (a) That interest rates aren’t being changed any time soon, and (b) the quantitative easing program launched 20 months ago will start to be slowly eased back later this month with a goal of no additional bond purchases in roughly nine months).

But very little attention is ever paid to why these policies exist, and what their impact is to the various things we investors care about.

In the Dividend Cafe today, we will look at the state of monetary policy, the fiscal policy that has necessitated it (yes, those two things are married right now), and what investment lessons we can extract.

Earnings season is preparing to wrap and it was a solid one. Congress is continuing to bat around legislative things that have not gone the way most people anticipated (or even close). There was huge election news this week that speak to the current political landscape. And yet through it all, the major investment story of the week may be the one least discussed.

Come on in to the Dividend Cafe.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - November 1, 2021 Nov 01, 2021

Today's call focuses on the latest in financial markets and the reconciliation bill. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Theory Into Practice Oct 29, 2021

I wrote last week about a small amount of rather large economic principles that are too often forgotten in contemporary thought, and in many cases were never learned in today’s financial advisory community. I promised a part II this week where we focused more on the application of these principles, and there is no way I would disappoint you after that powerful cliffhanger.

I will point out before we dive into the Dividend Cafe that I hosted a fireside chat with Bahnsen Group economic and policy advisor, Larry Kudlow, this week. You can find that whole video replay on our website if you are so inclined.

Today’s Dividend Cafe is short and sweet but does focus entirely on the promised mission – putting into practice for investors what the theories of economic wisdom look like. Off we go …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Economics and Investing Oct 22, 2021

Today's Dividend Cafe dives into some of the great economic principles one has to learn if they are to ever learn anything about economics and finds a comparison with the great investing principle of all time. I hope I will connect the dots well for you.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Bubbles and Resentments Oct 15, 2021

I loved writing the Dividend Cafe for many years with a “jump around” approach, basically covering a wide array of topics that would enter my orbit of interest each week. I made a decision late last year to start writing “single topic” and to write the entire thing in “one sitting” – basically Friday mornings – so as to make it a more coherent and cohesive read. I do like it better that way, and the feedback I have gotten suggests you do too.

Today is a little old school, which happens every once in a while when no singular topic is inspiring me. There are a number of things I want to look at today, from the Value/Growth discussion to the impact of debt on the economy to so much more. I did write it all in “one sitting” (yes, Friday morning – I am a serious creature of habit), but it covers a handful of different topics that entered my world this morning from a plethora of inspirations.

So off we go into the Dividend Cafe, a read that will be well worth your while.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - October 11, 2021 Oct 11, 2021

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What You Can Learn in a Week Oct 08, 2021

The effort to meet face to face with leading money managers, hedge funds, macroeconomic analysts, and other such “life of the party” luminaries began in 2006. Of course, back then I was overseeing just $100 million of client assets and busily deciding if I was going to move my business at UBS to either Bear Stearns or to Morgan Stanley (yes, that was a real dilemma I once faced; I’d say the angels aided me in my decision). But I had very limited access, basically no clout, and asset management firms that were perplexed by an advisor’s desire to do such intense due diligence.

“Your firm has told you these managers are good. Isn’t that good enough?”

“Your firm likes our fund. Why do you need to meet the managers?”

My stubborn insistence on actually creating my own process, on doing much deeper dives than the average advisor does, paid off in big ways for me. But I quickly found out that the “payoff” was not merely in how I was able to better vet products and solutions used on behalf of my clients. These meetings became a source of transformative learning for me in my career as an investment professional.

This week’s Dividend Cafe is not about the trip down memory lane, unless by memory lane you mean the last five days. But Brian Szytel and Deiya Pernas have once again joined me for over a dozen face-to-face meetings with stellar investment professionals, and we do so in a time where great questions exist about the current market cycle. About geopolitics. About China. About the Fed. About risk asset valuations. About societal stability.

So jump on into this week’s Dividend Cafe, and get a glimpse into what we learned this week. The results may or may not shock you, but they will not bore you.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Mitigating Risk in an Unstable World Oct 01, 2021

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Excited and Concerned Sep 24, 2021

This week’s Dividend Cafe does cover a lot of topics, but all through the prism of looking at the recent past as well as the pending future. I think you’ll find it an interesting historical journey and, even more so, a good analysis of so many investment and market realities.

The market enjoyed a little roller coaster this week, and I also dive into some lessons from that. I think a lot of stuff that gets covered in Dividend Cafe may mean nothing to some readers. It all means something to me, but different readers may find different topics with varying levels of application and interest. But the one universal – the one thing I constantly pray will come through in the pages of Dividend Cafe – is the primacy of behavior. My unpacking of matters monetary policy, valuations, economic growth, profit trajectories, market history, alternative investments, and all those things – none of them – not a single one – will ever trump the underlying thing I most care about for investors: Their own behavior.

Some bad things happened this week – for those who behaved badly. Nothing terrible happened this week – for those who behaved well. That is more or less a dual truism that I could repeat every single week.

In the meantime, let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - September 20, 2021 Sep 20, 2021

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

SALT on The Big Apple Sep 17, 2021

As I have teed up all week, I am devoting today’s Dividend Cafe to the takeaways from this week’s SALT Conference here in New York City.

The quick qualifier I will offer is that this is not going to be a boring recap of all the speakers, all the events, and all the things that you don’t care about. I did not attend the Chainsmokers concert on Tuesday night, and I did not attend the luncheon address from Paris Hilton on Wednesday, either. In the ten years I have attended the event in Las Vegas I don’t think I ever got a concert either, despite such names as Lenny Kravitz, Duran Duran, Train, One Republic, and The Killers performing. I did attend past luncheons with Dennis Miller, Magic Johnson, Coach K, and the now late Kobe Bryant. In fact, that lunch event with Kobe Bryant started a domino train that led to me doing a real estate transaction with Kobe – but I will save that story for another day.

But as much as they have always done to make this a pretty fun event with a powerful complement of entertainment to the symposium of content, whether in Las Vegas or now this year in New York City, there is nothing that they can do to make me a fun person. I absolutely love the speakers, and for the last two events, I have been honored to be a speaker myself.

But whether or not you care about this conference, I believe there are some takeaways from the event this year that are going to make this a meaty and substantive Dividend Cafe. So read on, and I promise I won’t let you down.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Never Forget Sep 10, 2021

I am typing this week’s Dividend Cafe from 30,000 feet very late at night on Thursday night/Friday morning, after spending four and a half hours on the plane, on the runway, alongside 100+ other planes that were unable to take off as airspace was closed for Kamala Harris' visit to the LA area (campaigning with Gavin Newsom against the recall). My wife and I will land in Nashville in the middle of the night, and we will forget this experience soon (I hope). Anyone who travels a lot has had bad experiences. I travel 50x a year and have been through everything, but as a percentage of the times I fly, I have had it easy over the last 25 years. It’s never fun, but it happens.

But twenty years ago Joleen and I were also flying together, this time departing LAX for a Tahitian honeymoon. As I mentioned the other day Joleen and I celebrated twenty years of marriage this week. On September 10, 2001, we left LAX on a redeye with a planned landing in Tahiti in the early morning. One hour before we landed the most horrific act in American history took place. It is that event that is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe.

Sure, there are some personal reflections and musings. But there really is a market lesson in all of this, and I hope you will find this to be meaty enough for your normal Dividend Cafe longings. Truth be told, the rather basic message I have to share for investors on this 20th anniversary of 9/11 is more significant in practical terms than any commentary I have ever written about monetary policy or capital allocation.

I will forget the wait of today, but I will never forget 9/11. Let’s jump in.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Final Touch on China Sep 03, 2021

I have been surprised by the level of interest in my treatment of the “China investment” subject in recent weeks. I kicked things off at the beginning of August with this piece, presenting the background around the tensions between U.S. investment in Chinese equity vs. Chinese fixed income. I followed up with this piece making the case that the Chinese perception of U.S. global economic intentions (primarily around our use of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency to facilitate large twin deficits) is at the heart of Chinese beliefs and agendas with their own currency.

None of this has been for the purpose of mere armchair theorizing or navel-gazing. While high level takeaways in the discussion of China’s place on the global economic stage can be interesting and even provocative, our agenda is investment-specific. We may or may not have an investment thesis to act upon around Chinese financial markets. And we certainly believe the entire discussion is highly relevant for all investors in terms of how the geopolitical and monetary components play themselves out.

This week I bring in some reinforcements. Louis Gave of Gavekal Research, one of the foremost economists in the world when it comes to China, Hong Kong, the Pacific Rim, and global fiscal dynamics joins me for a podcast/video discussion on this entire subject. His own views help shine a light on what the fundamental question is we must answer. I will leave you in suspense as to what that is.

Once again, all free people can conclude different things about these subjects. But choosing to ignore the entire topic is not an option. History is being made right before our eyes, and our portfolios are asking us to understand it. To that end we work.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - August 30, 2021 Aug 30, 2021

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Real Problem with Jackson Hole Aug 27, 2021

I was going to use this week’s Dividend Cafe to continue the discussion on China, one that I more exhaustively began three weeks ago, then expanded upon last week. And in fact, I have done a podcast interview with Louis Gave of Gavekal Research on this very topic, poking him and pushing him around his thesis that China’s strategic objectives in their bond market and currency are aligned with the objectives of U.S. investors. But I am going to hold this for next week, first of all, to give my communications team time to properly curate and edit that interview, but also because I believe there is a more timely message that is needed this week.

By the time you are reading this, I presume Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, will have given his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I am very purposely writing this before such a speech has been delivered or pre-speech teasers on its content have been circulated. I am, therefore, obviously writing it before I know the market reaction to the speech (stock or bond market).

This is on purpose. I do not want the focus to be on what is or is not said at Jackson Hole today, or what the market does or does not do after such speech.

I want Dividend Cafe to be about the extraordinary problem that we even care about so much, to begin with about this speech. Far more than anything that is said today is the fact that there even is such a focus on it to begin with. And this hype, this prioritization, this captivation in financial markets, with one man giving one speech on one day, is symbolic of where I feel so much has gone wrong.

And what THAT is and what it specifically means to you is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What China Thinks of Us and Why it Matters Aug 20, 2021

I got a lot of feedback on the special “China edition” Dividend Cafe two weeks ago, but I promised a lot more to come on the subject, and that is what we have today. I don’t only want to walk through various perspectives on Chinese investment, but really want to make sense of what much of this means for hemispheric changes taking place in global monetary realities. There is a tremendous investment relevance to all of this, and that will be just as true for anyone who never buys a dollar of Chinese stocks, bonds, or currency. We ignore this topic to our own peril.

It has been a historical week in a lot of ways, and I have written about Afghanistan and its potential impact on American domestic policy throughout the week at The DC Today. We will know more next week about the sausage-making on capitol hill. Market volatility this week was largely Fed-driven and seasonal. I don’t believe the events in Afghanistan this week will be remembered by markets for minutes, but I believe they will be remembered globally for decades.

And globally, we have much to consider if we are to be smart investors. So to that end, we work …

Join me in the Dividend Cafe (where as a special bonus today, some pretty hardcore facts about dividend growth superiority will be presented).

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - August 16, 2021 Aug 16, 2021

Join David L. Bahnsen, CIO and Managing Partner of The Bahnsen Group and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates with answers the important questions from investors.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG Investment Committee - August 13, 2021 Aug 13, 2021

David, Brian, and Deiya take on the investment needs of the day for clients of The Bahnsen Group.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

SPECIAL EDITION: Investing in China Aug 06, 2021

We are going to do something unique this week – a deep dive into the massive country that is China. From stocks to bonds to history to currency to geopolitics, this is a big topic, and we do it this week with the sole aim of determining where there may be investment opportunity for our clients, and where there may not be.

It is a topic that reveals deep passions and emotions out of many people. Our goal is to remove passion and emotion, and be fiduciary investment managers with a burden for optimizing solutions on behalf of our clients. This has serious implications when you look at Chinese stocks, or U.S. bonds.

I could make this introduction a full article if I wanted to, but let me resist the temptation to keep bloviating and ask you to dive right in. I believe it is a thought-provoking and useful summary of a few investment considerations in the fastest growing economic region in human history. And we want to get this right.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - August 2, 2021 Aug 02, 2021

David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm discuss the latest market happenings

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What is Rough and Troubling? Jul 30, 2021

I have been thinking a lot about the stock market lately, but not for the reasons most people think about it. The most common thing people wonder about the stock market is something like this: “Is the market about to go up, or down?” I think long-time readers of the Dividend Cafe know how I feel about that question (“long-time” could mean the last two weeks in this case).

I am always and forever agnostic about short-term moves in the broad stock market, not merely around anyone’s (including my own) ability to forecast such, but also around the relevance of it to one’s actual financial picture.

But I hear things said about the stock market sometimes that simply concern me. I am going to address a lot of those things this week and look at some basic historical facts of the market and the environment in which we find ourselves. My goal will be to look at what does not represent a “rough” or “troubling” market environment, and what does.

And in so doing, I hope we can find some takeaways about portfolio construction that speak to a present application that you will find useful.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dividends, Energy, and Crypto Jul 23, 2021

I do something a little different in this week’s Dividend Cafe – I cover three topics, and pretty separate ones from one another at that. In my mind they are all connected – but lots of things are connected in my mind that may not make sense to others.

In this case, I see them as distinct topics yet connected in the sense that they all are part of our investment worldview at The Bahnsen Group. The challenges to dividend growth in index investing, the particulars around the Energy sector in 2021, and the inconvenient truths about bitcoin – these are three separate topics, but they are all topics we have thoroughly developed beliefs about, beliefs that are an off-shoot of our foundation.

And we dive into some COVID stuff that is alone worth the price of admission – chart-filled and everything!

So view it as one topic with over-arching connectivity, or a three separate topic week, but either way, this is a Dividend Cafe you will be glad you read.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - July 19, 2021 Jul 19, 2021

Hosted by David L. Bahnsen, Founder, Managing Partner, and CIO of The Bahnsen Group and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice Communications.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Quantifying the Quantitative, or Making Easy the Easing Jul 16, 2021

Like most of you, before the financial crisis, I had never heard the term or uttered the term “quantitative easing.” This somehow becomes completely standard fare in the lexicon of finance in the last 13 years, and it is now uttered by people who I am 1,000% positive do not know what it is dozens of times per day in the media. There is nothing wrong with not understanding the obscure vocabulary of monetary economics unless of course, you are sitting around using the obscure vocabulary of monetary economics. But words have meaning, and today we’ll look at some of these words.

But we will do more than define words today. After all, you deserve to get your money’s worth for what you pay for this Dividend Cafe subscription!

My goal today is to walk you through the history of quantitative easing, explain what policy goal it is serving, what policy goals it is not serving, and what it means to you as an investor. By the time you are done with this read, I believe you will be a QE expert. And I assure you, as a fellow QE expert, nothing makes you more popular at parties than knowing the deep dive of quantitative easing! It’s a good thing I’m married …

Okay, QE and why you should care, in this week’s Dividend Cafe!

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Everything There is to Know about the Stock Market Jul 09, 2021

Today I am going to do something an investment manager who writes about investing all the time ought to do more – I am going to talk about the market.

Now maybe you think I do that all the time, and you’d be right. But truth be told, my investment writing is very purposely peppered with the stuff I think most matters to investors – behavioral practices, monetary policy, evergreen principles, foundational truths. The markets are to be found in and through all of it, but in Dividend Cafe, I rarely am just saying, “Hey, here’s the skinny on the stock market.” I do plenty of that day by day in the DC Today.

What I want to do in the Dividend Cafe today is just look at the overall stock market – why we feel the way we do about it, why most people offering a short-term point of view are totally full of it, and how we view the present environment. I believe you will find these insights counter-cultural, and that ought to pique your interest.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Halfway Point of 2021 Jul 02, 2021

I have always had a sort of unfair pet peeve with people talking about time moving either too fast or too slow. I think what I hate is the thoughtlessness of it – the sort of expected cliche when someone says, “wow, this year has flown by.” For one thing, it can’t possibly feel that way for everybody, yet it seems like everybody says it. Plus, it often times is just patently false – what people say they feel is the opposite of how I feel, and therefore I assume they must be wrong. I know, I know, but I already said it was unfair.

The first half of 2021 did not “zoom by” and it also has not “dragged on” – for me. There are moments I can look back on and say “that feels like it was years ago” and there are other moments (perhaps more of these) that I do feel came and went quickly. At the end of the day, the holidays and the turn of the year were about six months ago. That much I know is true.

As I do every year, I wrote a lengthy white paper between Christmas and the New Year to recap last year and to lay out our themes and perspectives for this year ahead. I prefer to wait for the next six months to do a deeper dive there, but I will check in this week on some of those perspectives.

But primarily what I want to do in this week’s Dividend Cafe is give you a look at what has transpired so far this calendar year, and why. Accurately knowing what happened in financial markets is useful – and not to be taken for granted (remember, “what you know that just ain’t so” can be dangerous stuff). But I really want to explain today why things have played out how they have, and from there offer up a viewpoint on the future.

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - June 28, 2021 Jun 28, 2021

David and Scott discuss the market matters of the day

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Golden Opportunity to Go Against the Grain Jun 25, 2021

The weird week in the markets doesn't change what I want to be doing with each Dividend Cafe. As of press time, the market is up ~1,000 points on the week, with pre-market futures on this Friday pointing to a +100 point open. The day-to-day and week-by-week movements in the market are not the subject of the Dividend Cafe, but they are what we do each Monday through Thursday at The DC Today.

This week it is tempting to dive more into the cluster of these infrastructure talks. On Thursday, there was a White House briefing that it was a done deal; on Friday, it appears to be falling apart; I can write about all this now, but I think by the time it hits your inbox, the deal may be back on, and by the time you are done reading it back off.

Yet, in these "current events," there is, indeed, a "timeless principle" that warrants immediate application. A week ago, markets were experiencing nearly irrelevant levels of volatility - and the media declared it the new apocalypse as they went about drooling on themselves in a sea of inaccuracies about what the Fed did, said, and meant. A week later, markets have been rallying, and the new question is what to do about "investing at the top" (it is "new" in that the last time I heard this concern, was almost three weeks ago).

So I want to dive this week into some fun history, some actionable application out of that history, and leave you with some crucial reminders about markets. These things will be useful whether the market is down a thousand or up a thousand next week.

Come on into the Dividend Cafe ...

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Debt and Everything Else Jun 18, 2021

We had an interesting week in financial markets … The Fed did exactly what they were expected to by any reasonable person – nothing more, nothing less. They acknowledged the economy is improving, they said they were “talking about talking about” slowing down their quantitative easing. And they indicated two years from now as a time where the fed funds rate may be 50 basis points higher than it is now (may it be so).

And that was it. No actions, policies, or steps. No commitments, promises, or assurances. Just loose language around some policy measures that are (a) Brutally obvious, (b) Not remotely hawkish, and (c) Not nearly enough if the conditions people are saying they are worried about are actually present.

So how did people respond? After three months of people saying “inflation is here” and the “Fed must act” – what happened?

Commodities got hammered, and the yield curve flattened more than it has in ages.

You can’t make this stuff up.

But rather than re-hash what I think the Fed will do, or what they should do, or what is going on in the inflation ad nauseum discussions, I think this week’s Dividend Cafe needs to better unpack what the real, actual, accurate under-current is to all of this.

More or less, every single topic being discussed right now has as its true foundation the reality of debt. The accumulation of debt. Concerns about debt. Plans for more debt. Questions about servicing of debt. The promise of debt. The fear of debt. The cost of debt. For a four-letter word where 25% of its letters are actually silent, this is a pretty potent word in 2021 economics.

And it is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe. Let’s dive in.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - June 14, 2021 Jun 14, 2021

With the key market insights of the season, David L. Bahnsen takes questions from the public. Hosted by Scott Gamm of Strategy Associates.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Business Model Matters in Economics Jun 11, 2021

We had a reasonably boring week in the markets (as of press time, which is after the market open on Friday, the Dow is modestly down on the week but no up or down day this week was particularly significant), but it was somewhat less boring in economic news.

What I want to do today is look at the variety of economic news circulating and apply a market perspective to it. My view is very simple as to the dangers around most conventional methods of receiving that news and most conventional methods of applying that news to investment practices: The news itself is prone to sensationalism, and the application of the news is prone to over-reactionism.

Put differently, the incentive structure behind how most people receive their news is flawed (and in this case, I am talking about economic news, but my statements here are true in all forms of news). And the incentive structure in how investment applications are delivered is substantially flawed, not to mention divorced from personal financial reality.

I unpack all of that this week, and do a look at the current news, and provide wise investment applications for you - within our framework - where the incentives are right, the temperature is moderate, the perspective is sober, and the culture is fiduciary.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Bringing the Fed to the Beach Jun 04, 2021

For now (even from my spot out of the country), I do keep my weekly streak alive with the Dividend Cafe. Going back to the week of Lehman’s bankruptcy in September 2008 I have missed just one weekly commentary, and this weekly podcast really is one of the things I love most about my job.

Today’s may be a little shorter than normal, and it is primarily Fed-oriented, but I am quite happy with some of the subject matter covered and hope you find it simple, readable, and useful.

If it turns out that this week’s Dividend Cafe speaks to you more than normal, perhaps I will have to open an office in the spot I have recorded it so that the magic can be repeated.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Three Problems in Search of a Solution May 28, 2021

There is no shortage of investment symposiums to attend in my business. Whether it be events put on by the big firms I have worked for over the years (UBS, Morgan Stanley), or symposiums sponsored by various money managers and asset management firms, or just independent groups putting on their own show, I am quite sure I have attended over a hundred such events in the last two decades or so, and probably spoken at a couple of dozen myself. While there is always something to be learned at every event, some are surely better than others. The quality of the events, the quality of the speakers, and the candor of the speakers in the message they deliver can vary a great deal.

I consider myself an incorrigible consumer of information and perspective and have been obsessed with growing my capacity for investment and economic thought since the turn of the century. These events can be a waste, or they can be utterly thought-provoking or somewhere in between. One develops an instinct over the years for which events and organizations and speakers will be worthwhile and which will not. And this brings me to the subject of this week’s Dividend Café …

I have already revealed where I am going with this the last couple of weeks, so there’s no need to hide the ball. The Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference took place (virtually) in mid-May, and it most certainly represents one of the truly spectacular conferences I have ever been a part of in terms of content, speaker quality, and diversity of thought. I chose to turn my major takeaways from the conference into a Dividend Café because I basically think Dividend Café exists for me to share what is most on my mind with our clients … And I assure you these takeaways from the conference are what is taking up most of my headspace these days.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Inflating Our Thoughts on Inflation May 21, 2021

I thought I would do something really fun with this week’s Dividend Cafe, but just as soon as I typed that I realized that, like beauty, fun is in the eye of the beholder. But what “fun” thing I was going to do was write a full recap of the recent Mauldin Strategic Investor Conference that took place from May 5 through May 14, and use that recap to capture some of the profoundly important takeaways that I want to share with readers of the Dividend Cafe.

However, for that to be “fun” for me I need to do it thoroughly, and this week was a hysterically insane week here in the California office between projects, portfolio work, client meetings, morning research, DC Today, and all the normal things. I also got inspired by another few things this morning, and so I am going to call an audible and use next week’s Dividend Cafe as my Mauldin SIC recap, and use this week’s for a whole different kind of fun.

Now, I kind of lied. I said that I was saving my Mauldin SIC recap for next week (and I am). But the truth is that some of the things I get into this week are itches that were somewhat scratched at the conference. So consider this a tease into next week, and I promise I will make it all worthwhile next week.

I disagree with a lot of what I heard at the conference. I agreed with a lot more. Anyone who agrees with everything that everyone says is a compass-less fool. But that conference did for me what I earnestly want the Dividend Cafe to do for you every single week – foster thought and consideration.

The conclusions that come out of that? Well, to that end we work.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - May 17, 2021 May 17, 2021

David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm discuss the market happenings of the day.

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A Very Significant Week May 14, 2021

Anyone who knows me personally knows that I loathe melodrama. And hopefully, anyone who has followed my writing for any period of time, especially my financial writing, knows that I hate click-bait, hype, exaggeration, dramatic hyperbole, shock and awe, and other such media-friendly tactics designed to scare, provoke, or just plain manipulate us.

I believe almost every day I am writing The DC Today is a boring day in the grand scheme of things. Markets may be up or down a lot on a given day, but as a goals-based investment advisor, with a few exceptions, those day-to-day movements in markets are almost entirely irrelevant. Some days have legitimate policy news, and every day has some aspect of economic information or perspective (Fed, housing, COVID, energy, etc.) that I genuinely love sharing. But it would take a lot for one of my daily investment pieces to warrant some kind of a, “not this is a day that changed history!”

This week saw the highest levels of market volatility we have seen all year. It was primarily in high tech and small-cap and more growthy/saucy parts of the market, but the Dow had a couple of big down days, Japan got whacked, and it was the kind of day where financial TV media ratings are up 40% or so from the norm.

And I am of the belief that this was a big, profound, and potentially impactful and historic week. At least, I think it will prove to be.

I just don’t think the bigness of this week had anything to do with market volatility. I don’t think it had anything to do with tech, with the Nasdaq, with Japan, with the CPI number, with bond yields, or anything else in that vein.

So what do I mean? Why am I being “dramatic”? And what does it mean for you as an investor?

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe … (and no, this is not melodrama or clickbait; I am just out of room in my intro letter) … =)

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Fear is a Four Letter Word May 07, 2021

One of the questions I get asked the most is, “what scares you right now?” Clients ask it every now and then, or some version of it, but I also get asked in various TV interviews that ever-so-compelling question, “what keeps you up at night?” There is one particular problem with the question I want to address in this week’s Dividend Cafe, and I want to provide a really thorough answer to it.

What is the problem with the question, “what is keeping you up at night?”

The problem is that the real question the person asking means to ask is, “do you think the market could go down?”

It’s a dishonest question, but probably not intentionally so. It’s a couched way of basically asking something reasonably worthless and unhelpful. Why is it worthless and unhelpful? Because the market can always go down, and anyone asking the question knows it, or anyone invested in the market ought to know it.

But, but, but you say – aren’t there times where it is extra super-duper extra likely to go down? And wouldn’t that have you worried? The answer to those two questions is, “of course not, other than in hindsight,” and “not at all.”

But, but, but, I say – if one ever just asked the question, “are there macroeconomic conditions that bother you, that you really dislike, that even though they don’t foolishly lead you into market timing or false prophesy or clickbait dis-ingenuity, you really are troubled by?”

Well, that question I can answer, and I will …

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - May 3, 2021 May 03, 2021

Latest market updates and news from David L. Bahnsen of The Bahnsen Group

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Nothing New Under the Sun Apr 30, 2021

Tell me what you think about these two statements:

(1) Markets are dynamic, ever-changing forces. They are never predictable, their outcomes are never assured, the inputs are constantly adjusting with the ebbs and flows of different circumstances and facts that have to be monitored, studied, and adjusted as needed.

(2) There is nothing new under the sun.

I believe these two statements are both true, and I believe that the apparent contradiction between the two actually represents one of the great challenges and obligations for professional investment managers. And that is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe.

We live in interesting times. We live in unpredictable times. And we live in times that offer a milieu of circumstances which combine the novel with the redundant. And for all of the uncertainty about the future and the debate in the present, there does exist a past that can, at a bare minimum, help inform us in the present and in our preparations for the future.

The “new” must be informed by the “old.” And that is what we are going to discuss in the Dividend Cafe today.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What Me Worry? Apr 23, 2021

This week’s Dividend Cafe took a funny twist over the last 24 hours.

First, I ended up flying back to California from New York late Thursday night for a Friday matter that came up (I was supposed to fly to California on Sunday). This substantially altered my reading and writing plans for this commentary, along with work issues. On Thursday the market had a little reaction to the shocking – shocking – news that the Biden administration was looking to raise capital gain taxes on high-income brackets. I say “shocking” because it had been, well, you know, on their campaign website all of last year, and discussed and mentioned 37 times since his inauguration. And because nothing in the announcement came with Bernie Sanders replacing Joe Manchin in West Virginia or Elizabeth Warren replacing Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona.

And by the way, as of press time Friday morning, the market is down a whopping ~150 points on the week – a rounding error – after a few up days and down days mostly offset each other this week.

Still, though, the cap gain tax issue does matter, so I wanted to address it this week along with a few other things that seem to be a source of worry right now for many investors.

But you can’t spell “investor” without “t” and I found that out the hard way when I arrived at JFK’s Admirals Club yesterday and the “t” button on my keyboard was not working. I had a DC Today to finish, and ambitious plans for 5+ hours of work on a cross-country flight. Well, I did all I could, but just so you know, a lot of words in the English language have “t” in them – a lot. And doing a “Ctrl-C” and “Ctrl-V” for all your T’s is enough to make someone want to ask for the bartender (I don’t drink, so had to settle for my typing productivity being, well, diminished).

But the use of an iPad Bluetooth keyboard, a munted attempt with the munted keyboard, my desktop at my California office, and a brand new Surface Pro laptop I had overnight shipped the second I discovered the trouble have all coalesced together to make this Dividend Cafe possible. And to think my dad wrote 500-page books on a typewriter!!!

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe!

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - Apr. 19, 2021 Apr 19, 2021

Replay of our National video call, April 19, 2021, covering the market performance, energy, and potential changes to the tax code.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Two Sides of the Coin in Normalization Apr 16, 2021

This week’s Dividend Cafe is going to dive into the “abnormalcy” of the economic contraction during COVID, the abnormalcy of the economic recovery we are currently in (and will be in for months to come), but then also the “normalcy” of pre-pandemic economic life, and what that means on the other side of this. I will humbly suggest that despite the changes in the economic landscape brought about by the fiscal and monetary monstrosities of the last year, “normalization” will mean “resuming our obsession with the question of _____”

That __ is what today’s Dividend Cafe will fill in.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It Ain't What You Don't Know Apr 09, 2021

The title of this week's Dividend Cafe comes from one of my favorite quotes, ever.

"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." ~ Mark Twain

(I attribute to Mark Twain because everyone does, but ironically given the substance of the quote, even this appears to be untrue, with most scholars believing there is no reputable source for who quoted these exact words).

The underlying message here is never more relevant than in investing, it seems to me. Plenty of people don't know certain things, and that has some impact at given times. But I am quite convinced that far more damage is done, not at the things that are that people don't know, but the things that people believe to be true (and act upon), when in fact they are not.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Zoom Replay - Apr. 5, 2021 Apr 05, 2021

David and Scott recap Q1 2021, discuss economic outlook looking forward, and explore opportunities for investors in current markets.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Contagious Ignorance Apr 01, 2021

The actual event that I am discussing may be totally foreign to you, despite the fact that it has dominated the financial news for five or six days. There is a good reason for this if, indeed, it is true for you. The event has proven to be a really weak “news” story in my mind (not for lack of trying), but even apart from the broader news hype, it has further proven to be a weak “financial news” story, and that really, really comes not for lack of trying. This news story begs for us to address the subject of “contagion risk.”

After listening to this episode, you will know much more.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Primer on Bubbles Mar 26, 2021

Who would have guessed that at the one-year mark of the worst market drop since the Great Financial Crisis, one of the hottest topics in financial markets is whether or not we are in a “bubble.” Am I the only one that sees a tiny bit of irony here? A year ago, the conversation was entirely focused on whether or not millions of American people were going to die, how long the entire American economy would be shut down for (hint: it lasted longer than 15 days to bend the curve), and whether 18,000 in the Dow would prove to be low enough.

Painful times, painful memories.

Today I want to look into the very idea of bubbles, evaluate as intelligently and objectively as I am able what is going on in markets right now and what is not going on, and see if we can’t offer a little clarity into a subject that I think gets quite polluted by poor punditry. Of course, if it weren’t for poor punditry, wealth advisors like us would have a lot less cleaning up to do.

Join us in the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Zoom Replay - March 22, 2021 Mar 22, 2021

Zoom Replay of National Call

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Stock Market Sensibility Mar 19, 2021

If you want a better understanding of the present state of the equity land, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. If you want a realistic assessment of the risk of correction, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. If you want to know what to make of higher bond yields, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. And if you want more clarity on what the Fed is doing and not doing, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Two Anniversaries Worth Remembering Mar 12, 2021

Both anniversaries are vitally important and warrant special attention. One of them may surprise you or at least represent something you have forgotten. Hopefully, that will all change after you hear this podcast.
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The Lessons of Anti-Money Mar 05, 2021

Everything is about the Fed, bond yields, and inflation right now. Sometimes I mean that as if I am describing what really does matter, and other times I am just describing what "all the rage" is about. "Everything is about" may mean what "everything is about," or it may mean what "everyone is talking about." In this case, we have the weirdest of circumstances where "everyone" is talking about the right thing, but doing so in the wrong way. Allow me to break through some of the ambiguity.

On a daily basis you will find media reports expressing shock and awe about a 10-year Treasury bond at 1.5%, and it's fair enough to note the speed with which yields have moved in recent days. But the coverage really has an implicit message in it that I believe needs to be shunned. And as is always the case it seems, getting to my destination requires a few detours along the way.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Special Edition - TBG Investment Committee - How NOT to invest in the fast-moving segments of the current market Mar 01, 2021

Investing options are growing at a rapid pace with some what were once fringe investment areas are now making it mainstream to the tune of tens of billions or dollars. With what is happening, what does today's investor do or not do to make wise investment choices?

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Profits Not Policy Feb 26, 2021

So when I launched The DC Today, it freed me up to use Dividend Cafe to be more “singular topic” focused, and I really do believe that makes for a better commentary. I have mostly not used this weekly commentary for “ad hoc” market discussion or current events, and I think this approach has enabled me to go a little deeper into topics that I believe are essential in their relevance. I plan to continue this approach until I get inspired otherwise (or overwhelmed with hate mail, whichever comes first).

This week, though, I do a little bit of both. The “singular topic” is a really important one – and that is seeking a better understanding of what really drives asset prices over time. There is a need for improved knowledge here, not just amongst mom and pop investors but apparently amongst the professional class as well. But I have been in New York City away from my family all week, which means one thing about my evenings back at my apartment – instead of hanging out with my wife and kids, I am just sitting there, unrepentantly (and some would say pathetically) reading more and more research. And this leads to one thing – more fodder and inspiration for the Dividend Cafe. Ergo, I cover a few “odds and ends” this week as well.

Whether it is the discussion of market forces or the tidbits covering a healthy array of other topics, I truly hope you will enjoy today’s edition of the Dividend Cafe. Let’s dive in …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Zoom Replay - February 22, 2021 Feb 22, 2021

David L. Bahnsen joined by Scott Gamm to discuss the market happenings of the day.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

My Heart Rate Monitor and the Economy Feb 19, 2021

I think there is some “economic vocabulary” in today’s Dividend Cafe that might – might! – be a turn-off to some, but will be overcome easily if you bear with it. And more importantly, there is a practical takeaway through it all that I hope you will find very rewarding.

I can see myself taking a more “multi-topic” approach to Dividend Cafe in the weeks ahead as opposed to the last several that have purposely “drilled down” into a particular theme that warranted special focus. That said, I find that five or six different topics seem to have a lot of overlap these days. I can think I am talking about government spending one paragraph and economic growth another, and voila, the third paragraph is talking about how government spending impacts economic growth. Economic and market commentary these days is one giant Venn diagram.

Such is the case with so many things I cover today. I prefer writing where all the dots are connected by the end, and maybe you will think I pulled that off by the end. But what we have today is a lot of charts, a good amount of information, some perspective that I confidently believe will aid your understanding as an investor, and maybe, just maybe, some cohesion to it all that adds sensibility when said and done.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Calling All Investors Who Want Income Feb 12, 2021

I do some fun things today in the Dividend Cafe. We dive deep into the dilemma facing income investors, those who want and need cash flow from their portfolio. It is a conversation that can (and does) go in a number of different directions. I hope you find it riveting.

And we talk a bit about bubbles, about history, about market fads and market risk …

And of course, we look at the present economy and make some bets on where things are going. I hope it will prove informative for you.

A lot of topics that somehow are all loosely connected to one another, in this week’s Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Zoom Replay - February 8, 2021 Feb 08, 2021

Your hosts David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm tackle the important finance and economic news of the day.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Growth, Value, and Tom Brady Feb 05, 2021

Last week, I wrote about investors’ reality (especially professional investors) being a by-product of the era in which they came to be. The intent was to set the table for how much of my investment worldview was formed. I live with a deep fear of excess valuations, and I live with a deep cynicism of the madness of crowds. Both of these things come from years and years of abundant research. But at the foundation of that research was the experience of living through something that provoked such impulses.

I won’t re-hash all of it this week. What I want to do this week is go beyond those two topics (i.e., valuations and crowd madness). We will look at these two things and seek to understand something about both concepts, but more importantly, we will seek to apply what it may mean to the present investing landscape and what it doesn’t mean.

This week’s Dividend Cafe wants to analyze a handful of present investing landscape realities, consider the lessons of history, assess where certain things are clearly different right now, and apply what it ought to prudently mean for real-life investors with real-life goals and real-life emotions, right now.

It is, indeed, our thesis that a rotation is in motion within investment markets. But I believe that means something very different than what many are saying it means. This week’s Dividend Cafe seeks to provide clarity around what is a truly important subject in 2021.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

You Are Where You Came From Jan 29, 2021

It is appropriate and perhaps entirely ironic that the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe comes in a week where we have seen some of the most bizarre, insane, and silly market activity, ever, and that this bizarre, insane, and silly activity is accompanied by totally incoherent commentary from various pundits, politicians, and “pros.”

Whoever said investing was all math and science is an idiot.

But the drama of this week’s market, and even the circumstances around the big headline story of the week (which has actually morphed into a multi-faceted story), really do serve as a reinforcement of the major principles, beliefs, and applications I want to highlight in this week’s commentary. I began writing this Dividend Cafe last weekend, and had conceptualized my thesis well before the drama hit the tape into the week. And I haven’t altered that thesis or even the way I unpack it at all. To the extent some of this week’s Dividend Cafe connects dots with other news stories, great. But my purpose in this week’s commentary is not to make sense of a four-day story, but a four-decade story.

And I really hope it will help you in your journey and understanding as an investor.

I have long believed that all professional investors are irreversibly shaped by the era in which they grew up as an investor. This is more true of the lessons learned in that era that proved to be negative lessons than positive ones. Put differently, the major events that damage us in our formative years teach lessons that don’t go away easily.

I want to do a little history this week, talk a little investment biography, and ultimately, offer some lessons about my outlook on the present investing era that ought to transcend anything you will find in a chat room, on social media, or in the madness of the moment.

It’s a low bar.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Zoom Replay - January 25, 2021 Jan 26, 2021

Strong discussion on the market happenings shaping the lives of investors with David Bahnsen, Managing Director and CIO of The Bahnsen Group and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Great Debate - Part 2 Jan 22, 2021

In this episode, the point I am making is more than just “politics is overrated in evaluating market conditions” (even though that is very true). I not only believe this subject of Inflation vs. Deflation is more important than anything else in understanding the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year state of financial markets, I also believe it is a welcome reprieve from what is just overdone, over-covered, over-saturated, and ready for a break.

Inflation vs. Deflation Part II – jump on in to the Dividend Cafe.

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Great Debate Jan 15, 2021

The Crux of the Matter

If you believed that interest rates were going to be 0-2% would you invest capital differently than if you believed they would be 5-7%?

If you believed that inflation would run 1-3%, would you invest differently than if you believed it would run 4-6%?

Does one’s view on interest rates and forward-inflation impact their expectations for P/E ratios (market valuations)?

If credit is going to tighten (ease of access to capital and cost of capital), would that alter one’s allocation to corporate credit, private equity, public equity, and a host of other risk asset classes?

Would one’s view on the U.S. dollar potentially influence their allocation to domestic vs. foreign assets?

And regardless of how one’s views on interest rates, inflation, credit, and currency impacts the decisions, they make on investment decisions, will all of these things impact the expected return on all asset classes (whether or not it alters your weightings in such asset classes)?

And if these things impact expected returns in various asset classes, does that have practical significance to one’s financial planning, accumulation goals, withdrawal goals, and other such tangible dimensions of wealth management?

The answer to every question above is YES, and pretty much all emphatically so, which means that every person reading this has a real dog in the hunt when it comes to the great economic debate of our time:

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Where to Begin? Jan 08, 2021

Where to begin, indeed. It may have been exactly the kind of week investors wanted to start off 2021, but it certainly wasn’t the kind of week anyone wanted to start off 2021 from the vantage point of our country, her peace, her well-being, and her example to the world. The concept of a city on a hill is not working well, and this patriot feels total exasperation and desperation.

But I do know the readers of Dividend Cafe do not come to this publication for perspective on national conscience or psyche, especially not my clients. I believe there is a lot in this week’s Dividend Cafe that you will want to read, that matters to investors, that can better inform your beliefs and understandings in financial markets. So I am going to do what I normally do, and welcome any questions and comments any of you may have – as always.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Special Edition Dividend Cafe - Part 2 - Year Behind 2020/Year Ahead 2021 - National Call Jan 06, 2021

In-depth discussion of the Year Ahead, predictions made last year, and the impact of the Senate race.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Special Edition Dividend Cafe - Part 1 - Year Behind 2020/Year Ahead 2021 Jan 05, 2021

Our very special annual white paper is here, wherein we exhaustively recap 2020 and the year that just was (yes, even beyond the obvious stuff), and provide our key themes and perspectives for the year ahead. Reach out with any questions, and feel free to share/forward as you wish! Contact us at www.thebahnsengroup.com for your copy.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Some Things Do Change Dec 18, 2020

Last Friday, December 11, marked year number 25 since December 11, 1995, when my father passed away. His name was Greg Bahnsen, he was 47 years old (the age I will be next year), and he was my hero and my best friend. I have to imagine many of you have experienced things (including losses) that do not feel like they were as long ago as they actually were. I know those cliches are tired, but it just simply does not feel like it has been 25 years since my dad died. Yet it has been, and I imagine when another 25 years go by, I will be saying and feeling the same thing.

Time becomes a weirder thing as we get older, I suppose (some of you will have more expertise in this than I do), and I am sure that time dynamics get even muddier when we are talking about a loss. Last weekend as I was isolated away working on a project, I spent abundant amounts of time reflecting on this and many other things. Regardless of what it feels like, 25 years has gone by since dad died, and my entire life being upended and forever changed. Over these last 25 years, not just in my own personal life, but across society, the news, the world, the culture, and yes, the economy and markets, there are a whole lot of things that have barely changed or haven’t changed at all. But, there also are certain things that reflect substantial change. Not just “evolutionary” change, but real paradigmatic change.

And the biggest of those changes is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Zoom Replay - Dec 14, 2020 Dec 14, 2020

National Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Only Game in Town Dec 11, 2020

• Over the last 42 days, the market is up very close to 4,000 points • Over the last 42 days, Joe Biden has won the Presidency • Over the last 42 days, reported COVID cases have grown • Over the last 42 days, weekly jobless claims have picked back up • And once again, over the last 42 days, the market is up very close to 4,000 points

Now, I could write you a Dividend Cafe today reiterating a couple of things I have already written 100+ times in 2020 (and they would be no less valid now than they were then) – that the Fed has implemented monetary policies that have indisputably served to boost the valuations of risk assets … that the COVID doom & gloom in the press has unimpressed markets as markets learned the more detailed nature of the virus’s risk and specific vulnerabilities about seven months ago … that markets are forward-looking and with a vaccine on the horizon see a better 2021 looming … that economic damage has been limited in this painful year to a rather vulnerable but less systemically impactful part of the economy … and so forth and so on.

And if I wrote that Dividend Cafe, I would hope it would be useful, fruitful, and informative in some of the market lessons it would contain. However, it would very likely miss the most important thing one could say about this market, and frankly, one of the most important lessons one can learn about the nature of capital, period.

So that is the ambition of Dividend Cafe today. To explain why the market has been behaving as it has been, not just in the context of the four or five things uttered a couple of paragraphs ago, but in light of a huge lesson for all. And to do this, I will share a story with you that I hope somehow, someway, delivers the message with clarity. Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

December Memories Dec 04, 2020

Early December is a tough time of year for my writing inspiration. I have soooooo much I want to say about 2020, but we really aren’t done yet, and this year as much as any other, affirms the reality that a lot can happen in a few days, let alone a few weeks. I also have a lot I want to say about 2021, but my “forecast” and “positioning” perspectives for the year ahead are also better served later in the month or early next month. Patience is a virtue, and as much as I am excited to delve into a yearly review and yearly projection, we are a few weeks off still. But it isn’t like there is nothing else to write about. Markets ended November and kicked off December this week with a move higher (as of press time, which is pre-market Friday, the Dow is up +330 points on the week, and futures are pointing to a +125 move higher. Congressional leaders in both chambers and from both parties are in heavy discussions about a new stimulus/relief bill. The incoming administration is announcing more and more of their incoming policy team. World energy markets are re-calibrating around clearer (and more improved) supply/demand dynamics. And, of course, the reality of a highly contagious respiratory virus continues to work its way through society, with various policy and economic ramifications coming in its wake.

Every year the first couple of weeks of December have a few things in common – we are too far away from recapping the year we are in, we are too far away to start making the year ahead predictions, tax-loss harvesting needs to be executed, various holiday and seasonal events and tasks take center stage, and yes, regular market and news “stuff” takes place.

This week’s Dividend Cafe will jump around a bit but offer a bit of history, a bit of present market tension, and of course, a bit of looking into the future.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Zoom Replay - Nov 30, 2020 Nov 30, 2020

David L. Bahnsen with Scott Gamm - Market Outlook National Video Call

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Pessimism and Your Portfolio Nov 20, 2020

I have to say there's nothing more important than the basic conversation of optimism vs. pessimism. Not only is the topic of extreme importance to me personally, existentially, emotionally, and spiritually, but I was convinced then, as I am now, that there is lasting investment significance to the topic – one that matters to the financial results of real people with real goals and real objectives.

If you fast forward from the levels of uncertainty that existed in markets (and in the society) 6-8 months ago, some may conclude, “okay, well now I am an optimist, because we see a couple vaccines coming and a lower mortality rate than we feared then, but then we saw no such thing, and pessimism was in order.” And if pessimism vs. optimism is to be determined by circumstantial conditions at a moment in time, it is fair enough. If optimism is to be recovered as a hindsight tool for use after conditions have improved, I can understand that assessment (i.e. pessimism when one doesn’t know what is going on; optimism once they see things having gotten better).

But of course, that is not what it means to be an optimist or a pessimist – to form a viewpoint or personality impulse (dare I say, a character impulse) as a backward looking response to then-known conditions. In today’s Dividend Cafe, we are going to unpack this more, and seek to understand why this topic is not just relevant to investors, but perhaps at the very heart of what it will mean to be a successful investor. I am optimistic that you will find it rewarding.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Zoom Replay - Nov 16, 2020 Nov 16, 2020

Bahnsen Group, CIO and Founder David L. Bahnsen has a lively discussion of the markets and the economy with Scott Gamm from Strategy Associates.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Timing is Almost Nothing Nov 13, 2020

I wrote this week’s Dividend Cafe on Thursday morning, something I haven’t done for a Friday publication in a long time. For virtually all of 2020 there was a huge focus on making the distributed commentary as “current” as possible before submitting. Markets were moving so quickly that if the focus of the commentary was on what was happening in the markets, any delay between submission and distribution was likely to result in some part of the message being “obsolete” by the time it got to you, the readers.

Indeed, as I type this beautiful Thursday morning, I have no idea what the markets will do on Thursday, let alone Friday. But I don’t particularly care, for reasons I will explain inside the Dividend Cafe.

I have been writing the weekly market commentary since the financial crisis, and a large portion of you know. I am grateful to all of you who have stuck with the reading of this for so long. It has really always been written “as I go” throughout the week, sometimes with a lot of weekend reading the week before driving some of the message, and almost always with bit by bit writing throughout the week leading to the eventual finished product. I may get inspired on a Monday morning about emerging markets and write something then, and find a development in rate policy on Tuesday and write more still, then. It has always been the culmination of many hours of reading and writing work throughout a week.

Well that brings me to this week’s Dividend Cafe, and the topic of the here and now. Some reflections are in order, and I hope my reflections will resonate with you to some degree, and even provide some investment application that speaks to your situation. So without further adieu …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What Next?: A Post-Election Reality Check Nov 06, 2020

November 3 has come and gone, and while the results may not yet be fully etched in stone, we have a pretty good feel for where things are headed. I suspect there are two camps of you who read the Dividend Cafe, and I do not refer to partisan leanings. What I mean is that I imagine many are excited to not hear about the election any longer, and then there are many who want to wrap their arms around everything as fully as possible (as far as what it all means to the economy and markets, etc.). I want to do a bit of both, personally. I want to accommodate that latter group today, providing as much useful analysis of where we go from here as possible, and then I look forward to having a lot less to say about the political implications of, well, most things.

The fact of the matter is that the political dynamic (a) Always affects markets to some degree, not just in a week like this one; and (b) Always has much, much less of an impact than people believe it does. Policies matter. And there are impacts in both macro and micro parts of the economy and investment markets that stem from policy decisions. But many investors have been utterly confounded over the years (including this week) by markets seeming to respond differently than they expected in response to some political outcome.

Investors who find themselves surprised by a market reaction to a particular political outcome that is different than they expected it to be can be forgiven since truth be told, market reactions confounding people’s expectations is the normal state of affairs. Much of it has to do with the ability of markets to have already priced in a certain outcome before it happens, meaning what seems to be a market response to something is really the market now adjusting to something else – that the market was ahead of the news headline.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Special Post Election Conference Call Replay - Nov 04, 2020 Nov 04, 2020

Post Election Perspective on Markets with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Election Weekend Musings Oct 30, 2020

I thought it appropriate to devote this weekend’s Dividend Cafe to the election, now that this long-awaited event is almost here. I thought about calling it an “Election Eve” edition, but considering 82,042,050 people have voted as of press time pre-market on Friday, which is about 64% of the total number of people who voted in all of 2016, it hardly feels like “election day” is “election day” … Hopefully it will just be the day they count the votes.

One way or the other, we are well into voting (28.3 million people have voted early in-person; 53.6 million people have returned mail-in ballots; 36.7 million people have outstanding mail ballots; and then there are all those who vote on Tuesday). And we are getting closer to this year's election being over. It has been the strangest election season I can remember when all is said and done.

But today in the Dividend Cafe we’ll make it a little more personal, a little more specific, and with apologies to those looking for me to throw punches, a lot less tribal. Opinionated? Yes. Fiduciary? Above all else. Objective and fair? To that end I work.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Magnify Moment in COVID Oct 23, 2020

There are a couple things going on right now at The Bahnsen Group that make this a very fun time of year, and a very fun edition of the Dividend Cafe. I wrote last week about the annual money manager due diligence trip I have done since 2006 and how important it is to our business (and to our clients). The meetings of the last couple weeks, this year, coincide with the launch of our “Operation Magnify,” the largest portfolio undertaking we have ever experienced at our firm.

So today’s Dividend Cafe takes the reasons Operation Magnify became necessary, juxtaposes it with this COVID moment (what it supposedly means, what it most definitely does not mean, and what some think it may mean), and then applies lessons learned from our recent meetings and collaborations. I am aware the world is mostly focused on the election event coming up a week from Tuesday, November 3. There very well could be ample uncertainty and market volatility that comes as a result of the election (or the non-result). It would be difficult for me to devote much more attention to that subject than I have.

But the topics I want to dive into today are leaps and bounds more relevant to investors, long-term, than whatever uncertainty volatility the election results create. And like many understandings of the connection between politics and our portfolios, I believe the topics I am addressing today are riddled with misunderstanding.

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” (wrongly attributed to Mark Twain). Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Conference Call Replay - Oct. 19, 2020 Oct 19, 2020

We look at the state of the markets with the election a couple weeks away, what we mean by “post-COVID” market realities, and spend time reviewing some of the major takeaways of our recent meetings with New York City portfolio managers.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Never Forget the Deja Vu of the GFC and a Love Letter to NYC Oct 16, 2020

Late in 2006 I was running a practice at UBS Wealth Management and using their equity management team out of Chicago for a lot of my equity management services. I would go to Chicago and meet with them at least a couple of times a year and found the process collaborative, informative, and intellectually engaging. But all of my other money manager relationships were in New York City, so when UBS asked me to go to speak to their new advisor class in November that year (in Weehawken, NJ, where their operational headquarters are that they inherited from the old Paine Webber), I decided to schedule a few meetings with other portfolio relationships. I was only overseeing $100 million at the time, 4% of the assets we manage now, yet it never occurred to me that I may have a hard time scheduling appointments.

As a pure aside, this trip double-dipped as a recruiting trip for another major Wall Street firm who was pushing me to join them in the opening of a new Newport Beach office for their firm. I met with their legendary CEO, a fellow named Ace Greenberg, and heavily considered their extremely flattering offer. The name of that firm … Bear Stearns. In March 2008, they would be dead and gone, sold to the loving arms of JP Morgan for $2 per share (from over $150). Suffice it to say, I didn’t join them after those enticing meetings. God was watching.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Investor Lessons from a World of Doing Something Oct 09, 2020

I did something today I have not done with Dividend Cafe, ever. I just wrote it. I just sat down and started typing, and wrote it, all the way through. I didn’t cover ten or fifteen or twenty topics like I usually do. And I didn’t write some parts on a Saturday and other parts on a Tuesday, adjusting for new market action on Wednesday, etc. I wrote in one sitting an entire treatise on what I believe is the great paradigm to understand in the years to come for investors. Don’t worry, I went back and added some sub-titles to “break it up” a bit, but it really is one topic all the way through.

I really hope it will inform you, guide you, challenge you, and to some degree, edify you. I also hope it will provoke you to reach out with any questions you may have. We invest for the world that is, not the one we want. And some years, the delta between those two seems wider than other years.

Jump on in, to the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Lessons From the COVID Era - Introducing Operation Magnify Oct 02, 2020

I wrote the majority of this week’s Dividend Cafe before the news had broken that President Trump and First Lady Melania had tested positive for COVID. We wish them a speedy recovery, of course, but don’t have much to say about “market implications” of such, other than the obvious – more uncertainty, more volatility. I will hold off on political and market implications for a few days, for obvious reasons.

There are lessons from the COVID era that will stick with us forever. Most of them, mind you, if not all, were not new lessons - they were reminders - reaffirmations of timeless lessons and principles. I am not sure the way we were reminded of some of these lessons felt familiar. Markets do not often drop 36% in 31 days. But these general principles all held true, in spades.

In this week's very important Dividend Cafe, I am going to write about some of those lessons (not all of them), and transition that into an opportunity to MAGNIFY what we believe at The Bahnsen Group, what we are doing now, and how we are using the COVID moment to optimize client portfolios for the years to come, all by just MAGNIFYING what we have always believed.

This Operation Magnify that we have been developing for months is both a proactive and reactive process. We want to take new realities to their logical conclusions and apply them into an investor's portfolio, and we want to create an entirely consistent process and infrastructure by which we assess and administer this on behalf of our clients.

If you are not a client of ours, it really doesn't matter. The moment you are living in is a moment of paradigmatic change for investors. Viruses and the risk of viruses have always existed. "Tail risk" events that shock and awe markets have certainly always existed (and always will). But there are fundamental realities that have changed - many of which were well under way pre-COVID, I assure you - and the discussion in Dividend Cafe today is useful even for those not under our care.

The same is true of your approach to investing, and that is where we are going in today's Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

FINAL Covid and Markets - Tuesday September 29 Sep 29, 2020

It is a bittersweet moment for me to present my last ever missive of COVID and Markets. Okay, it is a lot more sweet than bitter. I truly believe the essence of the markets lesson from COVID has been learned, and that the ongoing story of economic recovery, policy response, and all the various implications of things will live in for some time to come. But included in that essence is the reality of living with COVID, protecting the most vulnerable, and engaging trade-offs around reasonable safety measures for public health vs. the existential and economic need to have a functioning society. There are a lot of resources out there producing a truly intelligent, sober, and informed perspective on COVID medically, which really do seek to neutralize the panic-porn sensationalism so many have fallen into. This can’t be one of those resources. I don’t have the expertise or bandwidth to fully dedicate myself to COVID/medical information. It has been integrated with my work for six months, and I am proud of what I have learned and what I have presented, but it was always, always, always intended to be a part of the broader economic and markets story.

I am a markets guy, with every ounce of breath in my body. And the COVID part of COVID & Markets is no longer on my front page, and shouldn’t be on yours either. So I have to be honest.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

National Video Conference Call Replay - Volatility & This Current Moment in Investing Time - Sept. 28, 2020 Sep 28, 2020

with your host David L. Bahnsen, CIO and Managing Partner of The Bahnsen Group

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Jumping Around But Staying Out of Trouble Sep 25, 2020

There are a lot of places to go on the map right now. Markets were not just "up" throughout most of June/July/August, but they were "boring" in the way they did it. Limited volatility. Total transcendence to some of the silliness in how the media covered COVID. And a pretty consistent slow-burn to the upside. September has now invited normalcy back, and by normalcy, yes, I do mean frothy, over-valued tech positions getting re-priced (and that process could be in very early innings from where I sit), but also just plan going up and down - the standard bi-directional definition of volatility.

We have a number of things going on in markets right now that will be discussed in this week's Dividend Cafe, and I suspect the conclusions I draw will be really satisfying for some, and really unsatisfying for others. I am hearing more and more people talk about certain things that seem obvious to them. This is the most bullish thing you could hope for if you are a contrarian (or a half-way decent hedge fund manager).

In this week's Dividend Cafe we will look at ... • What all may be wrong or not wrong with markets • Five facts to focus on through the weeks and months ahead • Cash levels are still very, very high - but what does that mean? • Whether or not 2009 has anything to teach us right now • All the things happening in the economy (must read) • Politics and Money, and now the Supreme Court? • And of course, the Chart of the Week And with that, let's dive into the Dividend Cafe ...

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Thursday September 24 Sep 24, 2020

The market had been pointing to a modestly positive opening all night and into the very early morning futures action, but around 5:30am turned south, again led by technology. The market opened down 250 points, and then went up 500 points (so up 250 on the day), and then bounced around throughout the day. It closed up just +50 points or so with all indexes about the same on the day in percentage terms. The timing of the downturn this morning came right as the weekly jobless numbers came, but truth be told there was nothing unsurprising at all in the jobs data, so I doubt that was related. More or less, I think the markets are zigging and zagging because that is what they do – and notoriously so this time of year. I do not expect anything different for the next couple of months. Lots and lots of COVID info today, and plenty on housing etc. — off we go!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Tuesday September 22 Sep 22, 2020

The market dropped 500 points yesterday but today rallied back ~140 points. One big tech name today was a huge part of the S&P/Nasdaq rally …

The market drop yesterday (at one point down nearly a thousand points, but closed down ~500) allegedly started with a report that a number of global banks had “moved illicit funds” over a 20-year period from 1997-2017. No doubt, this was but one factor with talk of another lock-down in the UK being another, and concern about greater political (and societal) drama (in the aftermath of the Justice Ginsburg passing) being another.

Let’s go around the horn today with ample COVID information and perspective, and plenty on the public policy front, housing, and Fed as well …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Politics Fourth: Getting our Priorities Straight Sep 18, 2020

• The big unknown of corporate profits in the here and now and future • Impact of perpetual quasi-COVID lockdowns • The ambiguity of the present economic condition • Operation Magnify • Why financial services are under-valued, but not for the reason many think • A sober assessment of the state of stock buybacks • Why corporate bond yields matter so much to stocks, and everything else • Night trading more important than day trading? • Politics and Money: A new poll you haven’t seen in the news • Chart of the Week:

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Thursday September 17 Sep 17, 2020

The market dropped 130 points today (Dow). Futures were down 300 when I woke up this morning and the market opened down 300, then actually went up on the day, then fell over 300 again, then zigged and zagged into the close before closing down 130 (-0.47%). The Nasdaq was down 1.25%, and it remains off right around 10% from its high.

The weekly jobless claims came in at 860,000, as expected, but continuing claims dropped by almost a million, landing at 12.6 million (now half of that 25 million high we had early on).

There is a lot today – from Housing to the Fed to policy to oil – the way I like these missives to go – but starting off with all the COVID news that is fit to print …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Tuesday September 15 Sep 15, 2020

COVID Health Information • The seven-day average of 34.7k new daily cases is down 48.4% from the July 22 peak.

• The BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine project has said they believe it is “likely” their vaccine will be distributable before the end of the year. They obviously cannot predict what the FDA approval process will look like but there seems to be a lot of confidence in the direction of their vaccine trials. They recently expanded their trial pool from 30,000 to 44,000.

• Madrid’s hospitalizations through the so-called “second wave” of Spain are 1/7th (14%) that of what they were in the spring. I hate being so redundant with you but often the news itself is redundant. The cases are less severe, the people are healthier, the treatments are better, and so forth and so on

• New cases in Denmark have tripled, whereas in Sweden they have barely moved. As for what could possibly be causing this dynamic, I guess I would refer you to:all the media reports covering this prior issues of COVID & Markets.

• JP Morgan has determined that productivity does, indeed, fall for employees working from home. In other news, I have determined that the sun is hot.

• The University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine has a promising development you may want to read more about.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

National Video Conference Call Replay - The 2020 Election and Your Portfolio - Sept. 14, 2020 Sep 14, 2020

Download White Paper HERE - https://thebahnsengroup.com/dividend-cafe/special-election-issue-dividend-cafe-sept-11/#download

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dividend Cafe - David L. Bahnsen from NYC on 9/11 Anniversary Sep 11, 2020

David reminisces about the 9/11 and the aftermath of the city and the people of New York City.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Thursday September 10 Sep 10, 2020

The market dropped 400 points today despite opening up over 200 points. The 600-point intra-day reversal was led by the Nasdaq’s almost 400-point intra-day reversal, bringing the recent peak-to-trough drop now to ~9.6%, so not quite 10% correction territory on a closing basis.

There was not a particular catalyst to the sell-off. The weekly jobless claims number came an hour before the market opened and the tick down did not begin until ninety minutes after the market opened. The fact that the Democrats blocked the Republican stimulus bill from coming forward for discussion was obviously not a surprise. The selling pressure in big tech just hasn’t settled yet, and that is where we are. Weekly jobless claims stayed around 850,000 on the week, and continuing claims stayed around 13.4 million …

Okay – around the horn we go!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Tuesday September 8 Sep 08, 2020

The market dropped for the third day in a row, again led substantially by the sell-off in big tech (the Nasdaq is down 10% since last Wednesday’s late day high). The Dow is down ~1,600 points since mid-week last week, about half of the drop in the Nasdaq in percentage terms. Futures were pointing up ~200 points last night, but today the market opened down 400 points and chopped around throughout the day, taking two turns down in the final two hours of trading.

Expect a bit more markets and economic coverage in this week’s missives than normal because the Friday Dividend Cafe will be exclusively focused as the special election issue. We are entering a new phase of the COVID economic recovery that I believe will move slower than the first half has moved. A lot of the low-hanging fruit of job recovery and activity-resurgence has taken place, but normalized conditions are a ways off and will likely see a slowdown in pace of recovery from here.

COVID Health Information

• I am sure the Labor Day report of just 27,000 new cases yesterday was low around holiday reporting issues. The 7-day moving average is dropping ever so slowly. • The 7-day rolling average for daily mortalities is down 12% from the week prior and down 22% from a month ago. • The leaders of nine major pharma companies, all engaged in leading vaccine efforts, sent a public letter vowing to take no shortcuts en route to a COVID vaccine. • Incredible news (I will keep this updated as long as Dr. Bostom keeps maintaining the source report): 26,000 alleged COVID positive cases on college campuses now; zero hospitalizations

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Story Better than Tech Stocks Sep 04, 2020

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will address all of this and more:

• Market week in review – is this the tech correction we have been anticipating??? • A vast and thrilling ride through the world of zero% interest rates, and what this new monetary regime means for the economy, the future, and oh yeah, all investors! • A tale of two economies • Something to really worry about • The danger of stock splits • The Pro and Con case for the bank sector • Economic Report Card for the Week (special attention to today’s jobs report) • Politics & Money – update on the election betting odds, scenarios for election night, and general volatility expectations • Chart of the Week – a little history of Nasdaq corrections …

A perfect way to launch your Labor Day weekend … Let’s jump in, to the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Thursday September 3 Sep 03, 2020

COVID Health Information

• Confirmed cases in the U.S. are running about flat this week to last week, which leads some to say, “oh good, cases are not further increasing,” and it leads others to say, “see, the rate of decline has flat-lined.” It would seem to me that neither posture is the most astute given all we have learned, particularly in the context of applying COVID to our economic and market and societal realities. But as long as the focus is wrongly put on cases versus the other metrics we have learned are more systemically significant, that debate will likely continue.

• If one were inclined to earnestly follow the case growth numbers, though, and I certainly provide them here (despite my insistence that they are of little use I still play along), it would be noteworthy that while case growth has flattened, testing is actually up 6%, with the positivity rate is down to the 5-handle we were waiting for. In other words, adjusted for testing, cases are continuing to decline.

• If there is one “prediction” I can offer here (and if there is anything NO ONE should be doing around COVID based on the last four or five months, it is making predictions), it is that we will see cases on college campuses in the coming weeks – cases that will create little or no hospitalizations – result in the next round of headlines and hand-wringing (and everyone can decide for themselves if such will be justified or not). P.S. – 546 positives art University of Kansas – zero hospitalizations; Ohio State University 882 positives, zero hospitalizations.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Tuesday September 1 Sep 01, 2020

The extraordinary drop in new cases has slowed down, as expected. New cases seem to have flat-lined even as hospitalizations and mortalities continue declining, pointing to the increasingly less symptomatic and lethal nature of COVID cases currently being tested.

Color me confused by analysts and experts who are confused by the low mortality metrics coming out of European countries in their late summer increase of new cases. I would think everyone would have expected the low mortality rates Europe is seeing based on the experience of the U.S. this summer (better treatment, healthier infections, less severe virus, etc.).

The CFA Institute published a provocative article last week from Laurence Siegel (Director of Research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation) and Stephen Sexauer (CIO at the San Diego Employees Retirement Pension) looking at the dangers of COVID that are not specific to COVID (Bastiat’s law of the unseen versus the seen). This chart in particular grabbed me.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Fed in a Post-COVID World Aug 28, 2020

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will:

• Review the week that was in markets

• Really spend the time we need looking at what the Fed has done, will do, and will never, ever do

• Provide five key investment implications to the monetary regime we now live in

• Do a “Euro”pean history lesson for you, and look at what that means for investors now

• Provide an explanation of how business investment works, what the hold-up has been, and why it matters

• Politics and Money – a look at this week’s Republican convention

• Chart of the Week

Let’s jump in, to the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Thursday August 27 Aug 27, 2020

The market rose 160 points today, perhaps from a mix of reasons (Fed talk, hurricane control, and COVID testing news – see below). The S&P was up just a tad, and the Nasdaq was actually down on the day.

I do feel like today’s missive is a meaty one, so I hope you will enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it. I confess, this “every other day” missive schedule has been much more manageable for yours truly! Okay, let’s go around the horn …

COVID Health Information • Confirmed new cases are now down over 37% from the July peak of a month ago, and are down over 12% on daily average basis from last week. The case decline is rapid, and while I am of the opinion it must be hospitalizations and case severity that drives public policy, not merely the existence of cases, the actual decline in cases adds ammo to the arguments for greater freedom of movement and activity (an economic plus).

• The only states not seeing rapid decline in hospitalizations are Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, and West Virginia – more or less the overall national trend and data reality where there is a real COVID presence is in overwhelmingly declining COVID hospitalizations.

• And even apart from the dropping hospitalizations, and dropping cases, the hospitalizations-per-confirmed cases has dropped substantially from the spring levels, unambiguously supporting the notion that the recent infections affected a less vulnerable and more healthy group, and lending support to the idea many epidemiologists have proposed that the virus is losing potency.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 25 Aug 25, 2020

The market dropped 60 points today but the S&P and Nasdaq were both up. It was a pretty mixed day across sectors and market categories.

I am going to write more about it in Friday’s Dividend Cafe but the news today that Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer spoke with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He yesterday, and that all commitments of the phase one trade accord were reaffirmed, is substantial (at least for now in containing potential tail risk).

One of the advantages in this new schedule to my missives is that it gives me the chance to better broaden the scope (not ignoring the other categories besides COVID health data). Today we cover all the bases, and they are worth your read.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook August 24, 2020 Aug 24, 2020

Up to date information regarding Covid and Markets with a focus on the impact of the pending elections and Federal Reserve guidance.

With David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

We're All Ideologues Now Aug 21, 2020

This week we look at …

• The week that was in the market (and get ready for the final week of August ahead) • Really, truly unpack why dividend growth investing is so important, and why the dividend itself is such a small part of that, and yet such a big part of it • The deflationary nature of debt, and how all that works … A special feature! • Valuations in the stock market, here, and in third world countries • China. Enough said. • The state of the economy (as we do every week) • Politics and Money (as we also do every week, even when it hurts) • … and so much more

With our thinking caps on, let’s jump in to the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday August 20 Aug 20, 2020

The market was up ~50 points today with the S&P and Nasdaq up higher than the Dow on a percentage basis. Markets had been down last night in very late night futures ~200 points, allegedly on Fed comments regarding yield curve control (please). Then markets evened up, allegedly on reports that China trade talks were re-scheduled (please). Then markets dropped a bit after the weekly jobless claims came in worse than expected (maybe). And by the end of the trading day, markets had grinded out an up day, and big tech led the way.

The weekly jobless claims number came in at 1.1 million, far higher than the 960k we got down to last week and the 925k expected this week. Continuing claims, though, declined by another 636,000 though, bringing that number below 15 million.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 18 Aug 18, 2020

The market was down about 65 points today, but the S&P and the Nasdaq were up, and in fact, the S&P closed at a new all-time high today.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Kamala Cafe Aug 14, 2020

• Market Recap of the week that just was • A little reality check on interest rates • A report card for earnings season for Q2 • Anyone remember China? • Commercial real estate lending • Restaurants looking for some help – and possibly going to get it • Is our monetary system working? • Economic report card for the week (jobs, retail sales, consumer credit, and more) • Politics and Money – a bit more of a look at Kamala Harris as the VP pick and what it means to markets and policy (and so, so, so much more) • Chart of the Week

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday August 13 Aug 13, 2020

The market dropped 80 points today though at one point was down ~200 points before rallying over half of the ddrop back in the final hour of trading. The weekly jobless claims came in below one million (963,000 to be precise), below the symbolic million mark for the first time since the COVID moment began, and well below the 1.1 million expectation. Continuing claims came in at 15.5 million, down 604,000 from last week. The numbers aren’t “good” – but they are “getting better” – and they are “getting better more than expected” …

COVID Health Information • It certainly is reasonable that there are differing opinions as to “where” the herd immunity threshold may be reached, and whether one believes it is a lower number or higher number, the “variable” that sits in the middle is T-cell immunity which is a somewhat unknown component in getting to the total number. Nobel laureate and Stanford Professor, Michael Levitt, has been an incredible resource throughout this whole affair, and has provided the most reliable forecasts thus far about “excess mortalities” and other key measures. He has placed the herd immunity threshold at 15-20% (though again, others place it much higher, with varying differences as to where the T-cell immunity level sits in the equation). The University of Oxford study has placed the number closer to 25%, again, because of exposures many have already had to other coronaviruses, as well as what immunity exists from natural (t-cell) resistance.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday August 12 Aug 12, 2020

Market futures were up another 250 points at 3:45am this morning and I immediately thought, “Oh, does Iran have a working vaccine now?” (If you are missing my joke, see yesterday’s missive on Russia). But in all seriousness, markets continue to be trading with very positive sentiment, and with no regard for a stimulus deal (more on that below). The markets ended up today nearly 300 points, and the S&P and Nasdaq each did even better. I simply do not believe the market cares (right now) about a stimulus deal, and the markets digestion (all summer) of the COVID reality has been remarkable.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 11 Aug 11, 2020

Market futures were screaming higher yet again when I woke up at 3:30am PT this morning, and if the headlines were to be believed (they often aren’t in financial media), it was because the market was reacting to Russia’s claim to have a working vaccine for COVID-19. The market opened 300 points or so, stayed up most of the day, but then sold off late in the day (dropping from +300 to -100).

The Nasdaq and Big Tech were actually down all day today, even when the Dow was up 300, and the Nasdaq ended off 1.7% today. Energy, Financials, and REIT’s were still positive on the day. The market was not rallying on Russia vaccine news, in case you were wondering, and today was an extremely mixed bag of conflicting signals and confusions. COVID Health Information

• So speaking of that Russian vaccine registration, here are the facts. First, we are talking about Putin and Russia. Let’s just leave that out there as the fact on which all other facts sit. Second, the registration is conditional; trials are actually still ongoing. Third, production has not yet begun. Fourth, no trial details or doctor/scientist reports have been released, let alone peer-reviewed. Fifth, would you take this vaccine?

• The total number of Americans hospitalized WITH COVID-19 (which is categorically different from being hospitalized BECAUSE OF COVID-19) has dropped to below 50,000 people nationwide.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook August 10, 2020 Aug 10, 2020

This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm from August 10, 2020.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Price Discovery and the Human Spirit Aug 07, 2020

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will:

Summarize this week’s action in the market, with a summary of the better-than-expected July jobs report
Look at the intense pursuit for a COVID vaccine and what that means for markets
Add a little detail and caveat to the current market rally, and big tech’s role within it!
Discuss what it will taken to energize midstream energy
Correct the record on Q2 GDP growth
Think through the growing tensions with China
Simulate the stimulus
Look under the hood of the current state of the economy (pretty extensively), covering manufacturing, auto sales, hotel traffic, restaurant traffic, and all the things …
Politics & Money – the polls are tightening, and we look at a long-held theory about predicting the Presidential winner …
Chart of the Week – our cup runneth over with optimism for dividend growth, thanks to present conditions, and past lessons
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday August 6 Aug 06, 2020

The market was pointing down over 100 points in the morning futures this morning, but reversed into positive territory when the weekly initial jobless claims came in at 1.18 million vs. the 1.42 million expected (the lowest weekly claims number since the March lockdowns began). After a grind throughout the day, and this time led by technology, the market closed up 185 points.

COVID Health Information • New cases were down 25% week over week and, once again, all the talk is around what data may be missing with various weather and tech challenges around the country. Testing itself is down 20% and I am now in both camps as to why that is – that the decreased testing is both a reflection of improved conditions (less symptoms means less test demand), and some glitches and delays around weather and capacity, etc.

• One analyst I adore postulated that less people are getting tested because they have seen media reports how long lines and delays to get tested (and get results). I am not sure what to make of that, but I can’t rule it out.

• With a h/t to the reader who turned me on to this, I am shocked that the Clark County, Nevada data (i.e. Las Vegas) is not getting any kind of national attention (okay, I am not actually shocked).

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday August 5 Aug 05, 2020

The market rallied 375 points today, again closing at its highest point of the day as late trading added momentum to the market. Clearly expectations are high for a stimulus deal, there was a bit of curve widening helping banks today, and earnings season was substantially better than had been anticipated. I would love to credit the vastly improving COVID picture with some of the Dow move higher, but the COVID challenges this summer didn’t do much to harm the market, so I don’t think one can have it both ways.

(Note the time ledger on the Dow chart; I started today on the eastern time zone but closed the day on pacific)

The ADP jobs report did show 167,000 new jobs month over month, but one would think the number would be higher given the losses of the lockdown. The strong comeback number in June versus this more tepid comeback number in July seems to indicate a slowdown in re-hiring, not surprising given the policy measures taken in July.

As is often the case, I can’t explain why but today’s missive has been one of my favorite to prepare.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 4 Aug 04, 2020

The market was up 164 points today, though the % move up in the S&P and the Nasdaq was less. There was a little move up to start the day, then a flat range for most of the day, followed by a dip, and then a rally into the close. My own feeling is that investors are a little hesitant to be unexposed into a close out of fear that a stimulus deal may get announced while markets are closed … (it isn’t impossible, but I doubt that it is imminent).

The “hurricane” set to come through NYC turned out to be a rain shower, and something tells me this won’t be the last time a doom & gloom prediction for New York City turns out to be wrong this year.

Speaking of NYC, they have LESS THAN a 1% positivity rate right now with high levels of testing, and that positivity rate has been less than 2% for almost two months! Their new cases are almost not registering at all (57 yesterday, same as some small towns in the midwest). Hospitalizations were just 15 yesterday – again, 15 is a fraction of what towns 1/100th the size are experiencing. And mortalities have been zero many days recently, and not more than ten in a day for several weeks.

So I am pleased to see all of this in NYC, and hopeful that it leads to steps towards economic revitalization, not the opposite. Now, with NYC’s health status out of the way, let’s jump everywhere else we normally go.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Monday August 3 Aug 03, 2020

COVID Health Information

• There is discussion of testing coming down in the last few days and it will be useful for validation of case reductions and so forth if the testing does not slow down – for the case declines to be accompanied to steady or growing testing, not reduced testing. The best way to measure that is in the positivity rate, of course.

• Much of the testing reduction, though, appears to be related to the hurricane near Florida. I elaborate on Florida data below in the F.A.C.T. section.

• The data point that is most disconnected from testing, the result lag problem, and even mortality reporting is Hospitalizations. Nothing drives policy decisions more than hospitalizations. If by the end of this week we continue to see hospitalizations and ICU’s declining, regardless of testing and cases, I believe we will see some of the more onerous restrictions start to be lifted as August kicks into full gear.

• The International Journal of Infectious Diseases has published a study evaluating data in Japan to evaluate the effectiveness of school closures in limiting transmission of coronavirus. The report is a tough but brilliant read, and ultimately concludes that school closure was not an effective policy act in constraining transmission.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

My Weird Interest in the Important Jul 31, 2020

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will …

Give a quick summary of the market this week Do a deeper dive into all the rage in big tech Question if big tech is the only game in town to invest in innovation Look at health care spending in Q2 and why it may shock you Analyze the dollar’s decline Explore the power of the Fed, in very practical terms … Wonder out loud what is going on with the Main Street Lending program The highlight of the week – What to think about Equities Right Now Walk through the full Economic Report Card of the week Politics & Money – the Biden VP pick, investor fears, and the fate of a new stimulus deal Chart of the Week – why China tensions are not going anywhere, and most people like that! … and much, much more …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday July 30 Jul 30, 2020

COVID Health Information

• The seven-day average of new tests is now 820,000, a new high (by far). Nationwide, the increase in cases over the summer is practically in line with testing increases. It is the select states where positive cases outpaced increases in testing.

• Add Johnson & Johnson’s Ad26.Cov2-S to the list of vaccine candidates showing very positive results. Their trials thus far were limited to monkeys, though a clinical trial has now begun in Europe and the United States. The full study has been peer-reviewed, and is available upon request. The source of excitement here is that the strong antibody response is coming from a single dose … They are targeting phase 3 trials for September

• A source of mine had been sending me daily updates throughout the last few months on one of New Jersey’s premier hospitals and their COVID exposures, particularly when they were seeing hundreds of patients per day, suffered extraordinary losses, and were having to re-purpose facilities to meet demand. At some point it waned, then they shut down the COVID wing, then the COVID patient load of standard inpatients and ICU steadily declined. Well, today, I got an update. For the first time, this hospital does not have a single COVID patient. Praise the Lord.

• Not a lot of change in the general messages of the chart quadrant today. Cases are declining; hospitalizations are declining in the troubled places and flattening elsewhere; a few smaller states are seeing some mild growth in cases off of very low levels. The questions in front of us deal with society’s ability to “live” with this virus, and to continue mitigation against severity and mortality.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday July 29 Jul 29, 2020

COVID Health Information

In the “F.A.C.T.” section below, you will see what I believe is the most important data point this summer around the Arizona/New York case data …

Yesterday’s new cases vs. the Tuesday of last week declined 4.5%, making it the third day in a row of week-to-week decline, something that Pantheon pointed out to me this morning has not happened since late May. The 7-day moving average of new cases is down 4% since its peak.

The California and Texas hospitalization reporting is totally screwed up, and so national trends are distorted when two of the largest states can’t get their reporting straight. Where states had a hospitalization issue and are not struggling with reporting, the trend is very clear that hospitalizations are declining, ICU’s are declining (though not as much as hospital admissions), discharges are increasing, and stay time in hospitals has been cut in half from what it was in April.

I want to provide all data, good and bad, so I have been including each day the facts around case growth in some states like Oklahoma, Alaska, Rhode Island, etc. And while the empirical fact of case growth, not case decline, has been pointed out there, I think it adds to the honesty of the presentation to mention that the “case growth” there has come off of very, very low bases.

A fascinating look at Sweden’s situation with some quotes from the “Anthony Fauci of Sweden” (Anders Tegnell) throughout.

I read a fascinating study this morning from the Mayo Clinic concluding that there have been substantially lower COVID infection rates for those who have received vaccines in the last five years for non-COVID related diseases such as polio, Hepatitis, geriatric flu, and others … Happy to send to those interested (a heavy read).

Sometimes the thing to do when forecasts are off is not be critical, but be grateful. And also, to learn for the future …

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday July 28 Jul 28, 2020

COVID Health Information

• Cases were down 8.3% from the same day last week, and these two consecutive days of week-over-week decline represent the first two days of such in about eight weeks.

• Testing is up, case growth is dropping, so positivity rate is dropping. All data points have more room to go, though.

• The vaccine candidate from Pfizer/BioNTech have begun stage three trials and are targeting a regulatory review by October. Moderna is also in a large, final-stage trial for their candidate.

• Dr. Francis Collins, the Director of the National Institutes of Health (Dr. Fauci’s boss), has provided some stunningly useful insights in understanding the greater resistance to COVID embedded in the society than we previously thought. T cell resistance based on past exposure to other coronaviruses (sometimes the cause of colds we have all had) is explaining a larger immunity and resistance than previously understood.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook July 27, 2020 Jul 27, 2020

This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm from July 27, 2020.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Financial Certainty in a Time of Global Uncertainty Jul 24, 2020

Today's Dividend Cafe reminds of the uncertainty that exists around the world today. Europe may seem to have rectified some parts of their uncertainty, but they invited new uncertainties in doing so. The U.S./China tensions are not solving themselves, and you may have read somewhere that COVID case growth hasn't solved itself yet either (highly contagious viruses are interesting, that way). It is a both unavoidable and unsettling reality of life right now - many conditions, globally and not just domestically, are uncertain.

In answer to this uncertainty, the Dividend Cafe provides a little refresher of some of the most basic investment principles we believe in, applied to the methodology The Bahnsen Group has built its business around - dividend growth.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday July 23 Jul 23, 2020

Data this week has been quite a mixed bag with some of the encouraging data being more encouraging than I expected, and some of the negative data being more negative than expected. “Sustained outright declines in new cases are not that far off” [Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics], but right now we are just watching the new case curve peak, and disparate results in different states makes it all tough to analyze.

The chart and information I provide at the top of our FACT section below is, I think, the most important part of today’s missive. Fundamentally, these three realities have all held up incredibly true: (1) Case growth has been mostly amongst the young and healthier, and (2) Treatments have substantially improved since March/April.

I was fascinated to see that Sweden had 132 new cases countrywide yesterday, while Australia had 468. It is just an interesting contrast between a vigorous lock-down and shut-out of visitors (Australia), versus the encouragement of a herd immunity build-up. Sweden’s new cases and mortalities are now so low that all eyes are really on whether or not they get a sort of “second wave.”

The chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the National Institute of Epidemiology in India stated yesterday that Dehli, India is fast approaching herd immunity, another massive world city showing huge positivity in seroprevalence tests and therefore a large part of the population already infected.

Major League Baseball season officially kicks off tonight, and while fans are not allowed for now even with masks and distancing (no comment), it is symbolically and substantively delightful that the Yankees will be teeing off on the Washington Nationals tonight. I expect big ratings. Really big.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday July 22 Jul 22, 2020

The market was up 165 points today, mostly on a flat/choppy day that simply escalated in the last two hours of trading.

The general mood was that reports the Republicans are open to extending the federal unemployment benefit at a $400/month level through December drove the last day market move higher, but I am skeptical. It is certainly possible, but it strikes me as utterly incomprehensible that the market would not have known Republicans were going to do something like this.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday July 21 Jul 21, 2020

The market closed up +150 points today, though the Nasdaq sold off. Energy led the way today, while Health Care & Technology were the losers. As for health data: Case growth Monday was 4.2% lower than Monday of last week. The national percentage of positive tests was down to 7.9%, the lowest in nearly two weeks.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Monday July 20 Jul 20, 2020

The market was flat today in the Dow, but both the Nasdaq and the S&P were up (the Nasdaq meaningfully so after last week’s travails).

Today’s missive really, truly does go all around the horn – lots and lots of up to date health info, and some useful info with the stimulus bill, housing, the Fed, and more.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Running & Eating Jul 17, 2020

In this week's Dividend Cafe we focus on the trade-off of volatility and expected returns

A market summary of the week that just was
Where the next stimulus bill may be heading
Why QE is not acting like debt monetization (yet)

... and so much more

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday July 16 Jul 16, 2020

The market missed out on its first five consecutive days of price increase by dropping 135 points today …

Initial jobless claims came in at 1.3 million for the week, a tad higher than 1.25 million expected. Continuing claims dropped to 17.3 million, a bigger drop than expected and now down 30% from the 25 million high of March. Retail sales were up +7.5% in June vs. +5% expected.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday July 15 Jul 15, 2020

The market closed up 230 points today, zig-zagging around most of the day after opening up +350 points.

The driver was optimism around vaccine talk (and it is not just one source of optimism, as you will see in today’s Health Data). Earnings season is too young to be much of a driver but I selfishly like what I have seen so far. Let’s jump around the bend as always …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday July 14 Jul 14, 2020

Futures were up close to a hundred points last night, vacillating between the flat line and +100, at 3:30am ET this morning they were flat, and by 4:00am they were +100. But really it was all worthless until bank earnings started coming in, and when the first mega-bank reported their results, futures had a mixed response (some names up, some names down) The market opened up a bit and throughout the day grinded higher. Bottom line, by 4pm ET, the market closed up 557 points, and the Nasdaq even ended up despite moments of big sell-off mid-day.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook July 13, 2020 Jul 13, 2020

This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Grown-Ups and Unavoidable Tradeoffs Jul 10, 2020

This week’s Dividend Cafe is a long and juicy one – lots of topics, lots of practical subjects (see list below), and plenty for the wonky types and those who loathe such verbose diversions. But what is most important to me in this week’s Dividend Cafe is that it addresses the issue I believe is most necessary for grown-ups to deal with in this day age:

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will: • Recap the week that just was in markets • Make the case for a market change in the near future – not one defined by all going down or all going up, but rather one defined by a shift in leadership, away from the popularity group and into the more fundamental group. • Set the table for a “two-act play” around how we evaluate the economy – the lockdown recession and recovery from such; followed by the “aftershock” phase that deals with structural ramifications from that first phase • The burden of where rates are now and where they have been • Ask what has happened to oil prices in 2020, and why! • Take a look at what the real issue I have with bonds is as I look out into the future • Note the threats hanging over FANG • Look at what to expect out of the earnings season that begins this week • Ask where are we with the U.S. dollar, and what becomes the more investible equity space when the dollar declines? The answer may surprise you. • Provide a little history on the quarters and years that follow strong quarters. It’s rare to get such universally compelling data. • Provide our weekly economic report card of the good, bad, and ugly out there, with a special look this week at manufacturing, services, air travel, and more. • Do Politics & Money • And in the Chart of the Week, let you decided if we are inflationary woods, or a deflationary jungle

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday July 9 Jul 09, 2020

I’ll save you the play by play of what happened with futures last night and this morning, but it was pretty boring. And the markets moved higher a bit pre-market when the jobs numbers came out (see below). But what moved markets lower during trading today seems to be (and I say “seems” because it really doesn’t seem to be much of a market moving event to me, but it was perfectly time to the release of the news) the announcement that the Supreme Court is allowing the New York DA to get Trump’s tax returns. Anyways, the market went down over 500 points, but closed down 350, and actually the S&P was down less than half what the Dow was, and the Nasdaq was modestly up today. So it was not a normal day.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday July 8 Jul 08, 2020

Futures were modestly positive all of last evening and into my morning wake-up. They turned negative a few hours before the market opened and bounced around pre-market. The market opened up a bit, then dropped a few hundred points, then bounced around throughout the day, and rallied into the close to end up +177 points on the day. Not a huge day one way or the other, but some intra-day volatility (as usual).

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday July 7 Jul 07, 2020

I woke up this morning to an overnight Nikkei that had dropped a tad, European markets down a tad, and U.S. futures down 100 points or so. Futures eased lower throughout the morning (which I might add, now total about six hours before the market opens, versus three hours on west coast – and I love it!) … The market opened down 200 and stayed in that range most of the day before petering out in the final hour of trading and closing near the low (in fairness, this would have been five days in a row of the market being up) …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Monday July 6 Jul 07, 2020

Market futures never did point down last evening, and I woke up very early eastern time to futures pointing up 450 points. After a cup of coffee I realized that China’s market was up a stunning 5.7% today alone. Consider this for those mystified by the actions of the U.S. stock market: the Shanghai Composite Index is now the highest it has been since early 2018. We live in crazy times.

Anyways, the Dow opened up big, and traded between +300 and +400 most of the day, and closed right near the high of the day, up +460 points.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

History and Opportunity Jul 03, 2020

In this week's Dividend Cafe we will look at:

The real lesson of 2020 so far, evidenced in Q1 being the 9th worst quarter in history, and Q2 being the 9th best quarter in history, and what behavioral lessons some investors may want to pick up from this. We do an extensive dive into what lies ahead for 2020, and our views on economic recovery, stimulus, a vaccine, volatility, and so much more.

What the jobs report yesterday did to encourage us, and what is still lacking - and will be for quite some time

Why Fed liquidity provisions may or may not matter to the real economy (i.e. jobs), but certainly matter to investors

The under-appreciated tensions coming to the surface with China after Bejing's passage of this Hong Kong security measure.

What history says about an investor's timeline and corresponding expectation

How foreign investors apparently feel about American markets right now

And all the economic data for the week to form that perfectly mixed picture of ambiguity. Retail. Consumption. Jobs. Capex. Copper. Checking account balances. We have it all.

And in Politics & Money ... the betting odds are blowing out for Joe Biden; what does that mean for investors, and what might the next three months of the stock market tell us about what to expect in November

Finally, in the Chart of the Week, some calendar history to take us home

Let's jump in to the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday July 2 Jul 02, 2020

The market closed the shortened holiday week up over 800 points for the week, with the market up almost 100 points today. Futures were really flat last night, and at 4:30am Eastern this morning were up over 200 points. The jobs report came at 8:30am ET and futures added on another 200 points. Markets were up 400 points at one point and moved up and down throughout the day before selling off substantially in the final 30-45 minutes of trading (not a surprise at all going into the long holiday weekend).

Regarding that jobs report, the big bullish news was that 4.8 million jobs were added back in June, about 1.6 million more than the 3.2 million consensus expectation. I want to reiterate – the fact that the “experts” continue to get economic projected data so wrong is not so much that they are incompetent as that this is all very, very hard – and not based on solid historical precedents. That said, I would recommend the pundits moderate their predictions with greater humility, but again, this is uncharted territory.

2.1 million jobs in leisure and hospitality were brought back. This makes it all the more important that policymakers not capitulate to the panic mob and allow a safe and sensible re-opening to continue. More importantly, it does show a continued trend that job losses were initially classified as temporary, are indeed proving to be temporary. Now, permanent job losses were up 500,000, and that is a cause for concern. The percentage of the unemployment we have classified as “temporary” as gone from 78% to 59%, yet that is largely because a good portion of those temporarily unemployed people have been hired back.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook June 29, 2020 Jun 29, 2020

This is the audio replay of National Call Market Outlook from TBG CIO - David L. Bahnsen. With Host Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates.

Discussed is the impact of increased COVID cases in certain states on markets, and will attempt to evaluate the latest economic and investment developments, and what we are anticipating as we officially enter the second half of the year.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

New York Tough Jun 26, 2020

• Some clarification on COVID and the current media coverage

• How the result of “financialization” is to ignore capital investment, and how starving the economy of capital spending deprives it of future productivity

• The stress of the stress tests!

• The lost decade of gold is a powerful antidote to the strange argument that central bank abuses are bullish for gold. If the last decade wasn’t the golden era of central bank libertinism, I don’t know what was. And yet gold is just now trying to get back within striking distance of where it was ten years ago??

• A refresher on our friend, Illiquidity, and why behavioral finance drives the return premium in private market assets – a section that should get its own dedicated Dividend Cafe!

• How good/bad is the economic “recovery” going?

• And the secret sauce on how politics works in conjunction with markets … what we expect out of the next few months as various political scenarios play themselves out

• The Chart of the Week looks at the three stages of the COVID era …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday June 25 Jun 25, 2020

Futures last night really hugged around the flat line non-stop from 3pm pacific until 9pm or so when I stopped checking. At 3am this morning they were still flat, and throughout the morning going into the market open they moved a tad lower. The Dow got down as much as 200 points, gyrated around most of the day up and down, and then rallied the final hour of trading to close up 300 points.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Wednesday June 24 Jun 24, 2020

Market futures were pretty much flat all of last evening, and I awoke at 3:15am to a down 250 level. By the open, futures were pointing to down ~700. It opened there, got as down as -850, and closed down 700 points on the day.

COVID case growth and coverage of it is a fine explanation for market volatility today, but again the performance in structured credit today – mortgages, loans, etc. – paints a different picture. Threats of tariffs with Europe probably did not help, and neither did ongoing polls showing Biden’s lead over Trump continuing to grow.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Tuesday June 23 Jun 23, 2020

Well this was one of the crazier 24 hours in quite some time, more so for what happened last night than today. Futures opened up about 100 points last night, and slowly inched higher for the first couple hours into the evening. Around 6:30pm pacific/9:30pm eastern, my devices starting blowing up that futures had collapsed 400 points (so a net swing of over 500 points) after “White House advisor, Pete Navarro, announced that the phase one China trade deal was over.”

Well, it turns out, not for the first time, Navarro was speaking hyperbolically. Within 30 minutes futures came roaring back to even. President Trump took to the airwaves to say that the trade deal is “fully intact.” I decided to watch the replay of Navarro’s Fox interview, and it was rather obvious that it was a long-winded question and the answer was disconnected from that portion of the question. Regardless, by 3:30am this morning futures were up 300 points.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Monday June 22 Jun 22, 2020

Futures were pointing down as much as ~300 points Sunday night (netted for fair value), though that number improved as the night went along. By 3:15am this morning they were pointing to a flat market open. The market traded down ~200 points early and closed up over 150 points, in a 400-point range today …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Father's Day Dividend Cafe Jun 19, 2020

• There is a solution of the problem of always having a reason to sell, and always having a reason to buy: It is – always having a plan …

• The nation’s debt is talked about as much any topic in the political/economic sphere, but rarely talked about with any real practical sense of what the eventual possible outcomes actually look like. Today we provide five crystalized options for what eventually comes of America’s national debt. This is crucially important for people who care about their kids and grandkids, and people who don’t.

• The “financialization” of the American economy is happening right before our eyes, and it is a major consequence of the monetary regime in which we live. It needs to be understood – the good, bad, and ugly.

• Why inflationary efforts are creating more deflation – an economic primer you will love, and your college professors never gave (or got themselves)

• Proof that dividend growth requires active management, and that passively trying to get it will ensure you lose it

• Small-cap investing is very promising coming out of recessions, and if you think dividend growth needs active management, you should see the data in small-cap!

• The economy is picking back up – but wow does it have a lot of work to do. Check out the updated data from air travel, restaurant reservations, retail shopping, and more. And then, check out what really, really matters – business investment. Some investors are focusing on mall traffic in Q2 of 2020. We are focusing on industrial production in Q1 of 2021.

• The Chart of the Week tells you why the market keeps embarrassing not just bears, but those who don’t understand how markets work

• And in Politics & Money, look at worst news imaginable for President Trump, and the best news imaginable … all at once.

It’s an action packed Dividend Cafe, so jump on in … There is no U.S. Open to watch, so you really have no excuse.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday June 18 Jun 18, 2020

Futures overnight dipped 400 points by my bed time, were basically back to even at 3:15am, and then dipped a tad before the 5:30am release on jobless claims. That number came in at 1.5 million, and the market didn’t respond. We opened down and reached down -270 before reversing. It was a bouncy day but never was the range of movement very wide.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday June 18, 2020 Jun 18, 2020

Futures overnight dipped 400 points by my bed time, were basically back to even at 3:15am, and then dipped a tad before the 5:30am release on jobless claims. That number came in at 1.5 million, and the market didn’t respond. We opened down and reached down -270 before reversing. It was a bouncy day but never was the range of movement very wide.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Wednesday June 17 Jun 17, 2020

Market futures pointed down 100 last night, up 200 at 3:00 in the morning, and eventually opened dead flat. The market was quite boring most of the day, and closed down 170 points, dropping in the final hour of trading (just minutes after I told the Wall Street Journal how nice it was to be up or down less than 50 points).

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Tuesday June 16 Jun 16, 2020

Market futures last night were up 400+ points and the Nikkei in Japan soared over 1,000 points (+5%) overnight. I woke up this morning to a +520 in the Dow futures, and an hour later a report popped that futures were up “amid reports that Trump is preparing a $1 trillion infrastructure proposal.” There is one little problem with the reports that the market futures were up on reports of this infrastructure proposal … they had been up for 13 hours before that “story” broke. And of course, it is no story at all, as we shall see in our public policy section below.

On the day markets closed up 527 points. The VIX dropped a bit over 2% – not a lot – but is down 23%+ from the high level of Thursday. Markets were up 800 points, and at one point were back to even, but again, closed up over 500. Intra-day volatility is alive and well.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook June 15, 2020 Jun 15, 2020

Replay of National Call Market Outlook with TBG CIO and Founder, David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice Associates.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Bull and Bear Fight, and I Feel Fine Jun 12, 2020

1,800 points came off the Dow in one day, the fourth worst day of the year by the way, and while I spent significant time unpacking it, studying it, and understanding it, I did not spend any time "sweating" it. As you will see in the content of this week's Dividend Cafe, I believe there is very little evidence of health-related issues at this time to drive markets lower (i.e. so-called "second wave" rhetoric)

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday June 11 Jun 11, 2020

The market declined 1,800 points today behind a conflation of factors we will unpack below. Futures were pointing to down 200 at bed time last night, were down over 500 at 3:15am, and dropped more than 850 points from then until the market open. We opened down that much, and then throughout the day saw new intra-day lows hit, as the yield curve flattened and some of the recent high flyers sold off a great deal

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Wednesday June 10 Jun 10, 2020

The market was all over the map today, with futures up last night at bed time, flat this morning, then up, then down, etc. This is today’s intra-day chart for the Dow – a snooze fest compared to March volatility, of course, but rather substantial up/down movements as far as normal market days go, closing near low levels of the day.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG INVESTMENT COMMITTEE REUNION EDITION – June 9, 2020 Jun 09, 2020

Is the market about to go through a period of “rotation?” Growth vs. Value, Large Cap vs. Small-Cap, Cyclicals vs. Defensives - does it even matter? Our investment committee is back together, sheltering in place at our own studio, bringing you our perspective on all these subjects and more.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Monday June 8 Jun 08, 2020

The market rallied another 460+ points today, and the S&P closed back where it started the year (so not quite back to its all-time high, but back to its New Years Eve level). The Dow has a little more work to do still. The entire thing is surreal.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

New Highs Amidst New Lows Jun 05, 2020

I find it inconceivable that we will not have up and down volatility at some point in the near future. But I am not surprised by this market's resilience. The forward-looking capabilities of the market are powerful, even though they are more often subject to excess. On the downside and the upside - no perfect equilibrium can ever be found. This is why market timing is the errand of a fool.

I hope and pray our society will find a forward-looking optimism, as well. That what is wrong in our country can be fixed by that which is right in our country. Believe it or not, even apart from all I care about on these pages regarding the markets and investment capital, it is to those greater ends that I work.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday June 4 Jun 05, 2020

The weekly jobless claims came in at 1.87 million, and continuing claims totaled 21.5 million. We will get the official unemployment number for the month of May from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tomorrow morning. The numbers today were about as bad as expected if not a bit worse, whereas yesterday’s number was exponentially better than expected. More on all of that in tomorrow’s Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Wednesday June 3 Jun 03, 2020

The market exploded 527 points higher today, now well past 26,000 on the Dow, and in the high range of our general short term target. REIT’s, financials, and energy names led the way today. And while the question of, “how can markets be going higher when ___” are completely understandable and reasonable, the answer(s) remain no different regardless of how you fill in that blank. First, markets need no reason to do what they do in either direction, ever. Second, they are forward-looking and have incredible knack for shaking off what they know will be out of the news in days if not hours. Third, the Fed. Fourth, the economic re-opening is going very well. And finally, fifth, the Fed.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Tuesday June 2 Jun 02, 2020

Early on in the COVID affair my general feeling was that the most ignored yet needed data point was the recovery rate, as first three people I knew tested positive and quickly recovered, then eight, then twenty, then ~thirty, etc. The key timing issue was that a significant portion of the people I knew early on that tested positive were already recovered by the time they got their test results, as back then getting the test, and getting the results, had a nearly ten day lag from the time one initially had symptoms bad enough to warrant getting tested. Here we are nearly three months later and I am sure we have less of a percentage who already recovered by the time they get test results (because of improved testing), but I still strongly suspect “recoveries” are rampant (we intuitively know this, and empirically know it), yet the data has either no way to capture it, or a big lag in capturing it.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay - National Conference Call on Covid 19 and Markets June 1, 2020 Jun 01, 2020

This is the Replay of the National Video Call hosted by David L. Bahnsen- Markets are continuing to shock investors and a wide array of interpretations of health data and economic data are circulating. We will delve into all of this and more.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

First Things and Humility May 29, 2020

I am constantly challenging myself to get my applications of “first things” right in the investment world, but my principles themselves are not constantly changing. I say that with pride. The challenge that exists for the investment professional who has done the work of developing operative principles is to constantly evaluate their application of said principles, to alter, change, adjust, or modify as needed. And here is the other piece to that: To thoughtfully consider what it would mean to their client’s capital if they were wrong. Investing client funds as if one can not be wrong in investment application/execution/implementation is the height of arrogance. The humility to constantly check one’s work and one’s strategic thinking is a money-saving character trait. Sometimes it gets forced upon you in my business.

So this week’s Dividend Cafe focuses on many first principles in investing, and many beliefs we have about executing on our principles. But it also hopefully reflects the humility that is needed in risk management.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Wednesday May 28 May 28, 2020

The market pointed to a modest up opening this morning in the overnight futures, and it did just that. And the market stayed up ~100-200 points throughout the day, until the final hour of trading where it went from +150 to -150. The media has reported it as a combination of news that POTUS was signing an executive order trying to reign in social media companies as well as news that the White House would hold a press conference Friday to discuss some aspect of the China relationship. I believe it was entirely the latter and not at all the former (the social media flexing was known to be coming all day, and surely the market does not see it as having a lot of teeth). The uncertainty around the China announcement was surely worth a couple hundred points …

The weekly jobless claims came in at 2.1 million, down from the 2.5 million level of last week, and way down from the 6.9 million high level in late March, but still extremely high, and extremely sad. The number had been just 212,000 per week on average in January and February before the economic shutdown. Continuing claims, though, tallying the unemployment benefits of state programs, fell last week for the first time since the COVID moment began.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Wednesday May 27 May 27, 2020

First of all, please note our bi-weekly national video call this coming Monday, June 1, at 11:00am pacific time. I plan to address some things Monday I have not yet addressed through this COVID period, and invite your presence on the call.

The market exploded 550 points higher today and is now up over 1,100 points in the last two days and ~2,500 points in less than two weeks. Without any direct news or events to explain the increase, broad-based optimism about the economic re-opening is certainly the most logical explanation. I would definitely read today’s Market Technicals for more color here.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Tuesday May 26 May 26, 2020

The market was up 530 points today behind extraordinary optimism in economic re-opening and directional good news on a vaccine development (more on both below – a lot on the health side). Futures had pointed to a ~300 point move higher throughout Memorial Day,and the Nikkei in Japan surged over 500 points last night (now back above 21,000). Futures in the U.S. were +500 when I woke up this morning, and the Dow was at one point +700 on the day. We closed just a pinch below the 25,000 level on the Dow

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Sobering, Thrilling Reality of ‘Back to Normal’ May 22, 2020

And in this week's Dividend Cafe we are going to dive into a bunch of these subjects - not because they are abnormal or extraordinary, but because they are normal. The normal reality of financial markets and of being engaged in the management of such continues its beat. And though I far prefer to do my analysis and work from my office with my team versus the sub-optimal conditions of quarantine, I embrace this normalcy, and welcome the challenge of both this moment, but all future challenges and opportunities as well.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday May 21 May 21, 2020

The market was down a hundred points today, and basically stayed between flat and down one hundred all day. Oil remains around $34/barrel. Muni bonds continued about ten consecutive days of trading well. Corporates were off a tad. And syndicated loans seemed to be up a tad despite equity markets being off a tad.

Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 2.4 million, bringing the total number to 38 million since the COVID pandemic began (~8 million of those 38 million, though, are no longer on unemployment, presumably having found new jobs or re-secured their old job).

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Wednesday May 20 May 20, 2020

The market rallied +370 points today, making back the points it was down yesterday, leaving the Dow through Wednesday with the nearly +1,000 point gain from Monday. Oil is approaching $34 after a +5% move today. It was a healthy day for risk assets across the board. And speaking of health, there is some truly good news to report on that front as well …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Tuesday, May 19 May 19, 2020

The market was down 100 points or so in pre-market at 3:15am today, and stayed close to flat or modestly down until the open. It bounced a round a bit, then found the flat line and stayed there most of the day, before then seeing a substantial sell-off in the last 45 minutes of trading (see chart below). A report circulated just before the market sell-off that yesterday’s positive report on early phase vaccine trials may have been incomplete in some of its data. If that was indeed the reason for the sell-off, then these markets are a lot more susceptible to pops and drops around [silly?] vaccine headlines than I would have thought.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay - National Conference Call on Covid 19 and Markets May 18, 2020 May 18, 2020

Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen answers questions from investors on markets and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Solution Means Knowing What You Are Solving May 16, 2020

What I want to do, starting in this week’s Dividend Cafe, but really in the weeks and months to come, is to examine the truly significant macroeconomic forces that are relevant to investors, and to explore investment solutions that match the moment. I do not believe advisors and investors can consider solutions intelligently if they have not considered what they are trying to solve intelligently. So to that end, we work. Join us, in this week’s Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday, May 14 May 14, 2020

The market closed up almost 400 points today after an intra-day session that was surely one of the weirdest I have seen in a couple weeks. Futures were down 100-200 all morning pre-market, and went down further after the initial jobless claims number came in at 2.98 million (the number had been expected to be closer to 2.7 million). The market went down as much as 450 points before rallying back and really zigging and zagging (with no apparent news) throughout the day, closing at the highs into a rally.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Wednesday, May 13 May 13, 2020

Futures were down last night, then up this morning, then went flat just as the market opened this morning. By the time the market open was catching steam downward pressure was on stocks, and that downward pressure accelerated a few hours after the open, and then stayed down but level the rest of the day. Stocks actually closed 180 points off their low of the day, but still down 500 points on the day.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Tuesday, May 12 May 12, 2020

In the height of market violence throughout March and April it was routine that the overnight futures would do one thing, the opening the next morning something totally different, and the action throughout the day something different still. Sometimes even then there was no clarity as to how things would end up as 400+ point moves down or up even in the final hour of trading were extremely common (either as reversals or pile-ons). Lately the futures I have seen before bed time, the futures I wake up to around 3:00am, and the market opening levels have all been pretty in line with one another. There have been late day trading reversals (as I highlighted most days last week), but the futures and the opening levels have been pretty consistent.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Monday, May 11 May 11, 2020

The S&P was flat today, the Nasdaq was up, and the Dow was down 100 points, so let’s call it a flat day overall. We will cover our normal categories and take a few detours as well as we launch another market week in the midst of this COVID pandemic …

As for health data, the 1.5% case growth over the weekend is what we have been waiting for – the smallest case growth in the U.S. since all of this began. And all analysis indicates we will see new cases and case growth % really decline from here. If the new cases had declined with a substantially lower weekend testing number that would be less noteworthy, but the testing stayed quite elevated all weekend. The positive ratio to total tests was just 7.8% yesterday, and our trend level for total tests is right around 300,000 per day now.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Sowing the Seeds of Human Flourishing May 08, 2020

This week’s Dividend Cafe will do all it generally sets out to do. We will look at the overall economy, and I even close with something I don’t often do: A summary of our short term, medium term, and long term outlooks. There is quite a deep dive into the jobs data, the economic picture, the state of the U.S. energy industry, some post-COVID economic realities, and much, much more. But there also is a sober assessment of something else – the human toll of non-productivity – the impact to joy and fulfillment when people are cut off from productive activity. It is the heart of our tragic moment.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Wednesday, May 6 May 06, 2020

Happy “Flash Crash” anniversary, to those who remember that fateful day (ten years ago today). I remember it like it was yesterday, ending a meeting with clients early (who were sitting in my office facing me at the time, as I faced the television over their shoulders that was informing me of the collapsing market). I began trading in client accounts heavily after the prematurely-ended meeting, and for the first time in my life saw ETF’s broken, bid-ask spreads broken, and wild mistakes in trading execution. It was simply crazy, and only in the weeks (and to some degree, years) ahead did we really understand what had happened, how, and why. Today we don’t have a Flash Crash, and have not exactly had one since May 6, 2010. But we do have incredible risk around liquid ETF’s made up of illiquid assets. I need to attention this issue more diligently in the post-COVID months ahead.

I am trying to “tighten up” the daily missive, and better organize/structure it each day around: • Health Data • Market Technicals • Public Policy • Oil & Energy • Housing • Fed News

I am hoping this predictable, consistent sequence will both reflect the general priorities readers have in some way, and make for a more succinct and digestible read. And of course, I do welcome your feedback and suggestions …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Tuesday, May 5 May 06, 2020

The market was up 300+ points most of the day today, and just as the sell-off faded yesterday, the rally faded today, with the market closing up 133 points (though the S&P was up 34 bps more than the Dow).

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay: National Conference Call on Covid 19 and Markets May 4, 2020 May 04, 2020

Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen answers questions from investors on markets and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

April Showers and May Flowers May 01, 2020

I learned a lot in the month of April as well, and I want to share it with you today. I am either excited to tell you or sorry to tell you that this week's Dividend Cafe is the longest one I have ever written, but also the most important one I have ever written. The length of it is just simply because of the sheer ambition of all I am trying to cover this week. There are some investment opportunities that have been created out of these last two months that warrant the attention I have given them this week. But there also are lessons learned and principles reinforced that I am excited to share.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday, April 30 Apr 30, 2020

After the big move up the last two days, we closed the extraordinary month of April with a down-300 point day.

Weekly jobless claims came in at 3.8 million, bringing the aggregate new unemployment claims since the COVID crisis began to ~30 million.

Oil prices for the June contract were up ~$4 today (+25%), and are up ~$8 since Monday. April ends up being the biggest month up in the stock market since January 1987 (+11.1% for the Dow and +12.7% for the S&P).

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Tuesday, April 28 Apr 28, 2020

The futures were pointing down 80-100 points without a lot of activity last night, yet by the early morning were pointing to a +300 point move higher. The market opened up ~400, bounced around throughout the day, and closed today down a tad. But the big tech companies were down 2-4% all day. But on the other hand, some key REIT’s, materials companies, energy names, and industrials were all up today.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG INVESTMENT COMMITTEE MARKET UPDATE – April 29, 2020 Apr 29, 2020

The Bahnsen Group Investment Committee is back together for the first time in weeks to discuss all matters of the market, Covid, and investing.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Monday, April 27 Apr 27, 2020

The futures opened yesterday down a pinch and reflected a down 80 or so opening for a couple hours. By the time I went to bed U.S. futures were pointing up 100, and more interestingly, the Nikkei was up over 400 points (see why below). I woke up to the futures pointing up 200 points at 3:30am, and the June delivery contract on WTI oil down 17% to just over $14/barrel. (The disconnect between short term oil futures and equities is a sight to behold).

The market opened up ~100 points, and throughout the day traded up about +250 (most of the day). Oil was down ~20% most of the day even as, once again, most energy stocks were higher. Financial stocks were the huge leadership names today. The Dow ended up closing +360 points, just off the highs of the day.

Links mentioned in this episode: CovidAndMarkets.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay: National Call on Covid 19 and Markets Apr 27, 2020

Last week’s national video call brought to you podcast listeners in audio form - COVID, two market phases, and what to do from here.

Watch the call and follow along with the slides here - https://youtu.be/pt-wO73Y8to

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Even More Ridiculous than Negative Oil Prices Apr 24, 2020

It has been a fascinating week in the markets, with oil tanking, but the energy sector way up; with the markets up and down every day; with some bond sectors rallying, and others selling off. Some degree of non-correlation between asset classes seems to be sneaking back into play, and non-correlation is the hallmark of normalcy. Now, we have a long, long way to go ... but there were interesting green shoots this week in each

But the various developments in the markets this week are not the full heart of Dividend Cafe this week. The heart of this weekly commentary is how to think about portfolio balance right now, what diversification really means, and what government stimulus and Fed interventions do and do not mean for your portfolio.

So shut down your Zoom, turn off your Netflix, and do your third walk of the dog for the day later. And jump on in to the Dividend Cafe ...

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday, April 23 Apr 23, 2020

The week of April 6 was the biggest “up” week in markets on a percentage basis since 1974. Last week (with up and down volatility) was another solid up week, whereas some tempering of the prior week’s rally had been expected. Coming into this week, I certainly figured some tempering of the prior two weeks rally would not be surprising, and we dropped 500-600 points Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday’s 450 point increase cut into that, and now today the Dow ended up a tad, but had been up 300 points before seeing that fade.

Futures were basically flat all night last night and stayed as such this morning from 3:15am until 5:30am when the weekly jobless claims number came. The number came in at 4.4 million, down from last week’s 5.5 million but in line with expectations, and futures went from down a bit to up 100. The market hit its high levels in the first couple hours of the day, and just slowly faded throughout the day. Energy and Alternative Asset Managers were the standouts today.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Wednesday, April 22 Apr 22, 2020

The market rallied quite a bit today, coming off of the two ~600 point down days that started the week. Oil prices were up 22% (from their very low level, mind you) and they are at least now only showing the June contract vs. the delivery/storage fiasco in the May contract that was taking place Monday and Tuesday. Futures were pointing to a 250-point increase when I woke up this morning, and throughout the day markets traded roughly between +250 and +500. The +450 close was off of the high of the day that came ten minutes before the close.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Monday, April 20 Apr 20, 2020

We cover the market, the latest in health data, plenty on housing prices, the PPP Part Two stimulus program, and oil prices - plus more

Links mentioned in this episode: CovidAndMarkets.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

New Normal and Old Normal Apr 17, 2020

The week went essentially much as I expected in the markets – the health data continues to point towards marked improvement, but not quite yet a full re-opening; markets did not continue the violent rally of last week, but had some modest volatility both up and down; and the economic data from March was awful, with all eyes and ears focused on where we go from here.

On the week, as of press time, the market is down a tiny bit on the week, but that comes with some decent sized up days and down days along the way (down 300, up 600, down 300, up 700). I am very excited about this week’s Dividend Cafe, and hope you will see why when you read it.

• Is life about to change forever and ever? • Is a “new normal” coming, and what does it mean? • Will the next 12 months be a bear market or a bull market (from here)? • What really happened in March at the points of maximum market distress? • Long-term ramifications of this COVID-19 experience • And so much more

So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe. I promise it will be a refreshing commentary on markets and the economy for investors who deserve better than the sensationalistic or self-serving garbage often posing as commentary.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dividend Cafe - Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday, April 16 Apr 16, 2020

The Dividend Cafe Podcast will now add a Daily Covid and Markets reporting with the latest on the many aspects of the capital markets affected by COVID-19.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Good Friday Indeed Apr 10, 2020

The market week is cut short by the Good Friday holiday this week, but investors liked what they received out of the four days markets were open. Monday represented one of the biggest up days in market history, and Wednesday and Thursday added to the rally, with the Dow now a stunning 5,500 points off its March 23 low level (which was itself an intra-day number).

No, we do not know what equities will do next week, but we do know that the Federal Reserve gave markets a lot of news this week, and that will be the primary focus of the Dividend Cafe. But if you want to understand what it all means for the economy at-large, for housing, for bond investors, and for those just sort of wondering when our country is going to re-open, we invite you to jump into this week's very special Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Markets Look Forward Apr 03, 2020

As I am taping Friday morning a short while into the final market session of the week, the market is nearly flat on the week (modestly down at this point). That came with a big move up Monday, a modest move down Tuesday, a huge move down Wednesday, a decent move up Thursday, and so far, early on Friday, a “flattish” day (though off a bit – again, moving as I type).

Note the theme? A “flat” week in markets, but with huge volatility day by day by day.

Why did markets go up 500 points the day the worst jobless claims data in history came out? Why did markets not tank on the news of the worst unemployment data in ten years? Because markets do not go down on news they already knew was coming. Period. I am confused by media and financial professionals who do not seem to understand this, but I take seriously my obligation to help you, readers of Dividend Cafe, understand this.

Because markets are “discounting mechanisms,” pricing in today what they believe about tomorrow, “good news” cannot make markets rally unless it was not already expected, and “bad news” cannot make markets drop unless it, too, was not expected.

And if you know someone who has not known that in the midst of this national shutdown, that jobs data was not atrociously bad, I really don’t know what to say. The key, my friends, is where we go from here, and that itself is riddled with uncertainty. So let’s unpack as much uncertainty as we can, and jump into a fruitful and useful Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Miles and Miles To Go Before I Sleep Mar 27, 2020

As of broadcast time, the market has moved significantly higher on the week, bouncing in a meaningful way Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week (after further sell-off Monday). As I record Friday morning, the market shows down (but it is early). We all know that we don’t know what the rest of the day (or weekend) will bring.

This very special Dividend Cafe (long, but I think we all have extra reading time this weekend) attempts to combine a lot of investment application, macroeconomic commentary, and basic financial wisdom, into one trip to the Dividend Cafe. Jump on in.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Fiscal Stimulus Bazooka Has Now Gone Nuclear Mar 23, 2020

The utter insanity of today's financial markets continued in Sunday evening futures action, Monday morning futures action, and throughout the day Monday. The largest Federal Reserve announcement yet came, and plenty needs to be said about the so-called "fiscal stimulus bazooka."

Today's special Dividend Cafe provides as much explanation of these crazy times as we can muster, and offers yet more practical guidance on surviving the bear market we are presently enduring.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Realities of the Market Moves that Matter Mar 20, 2020

There is a Friday Dividend Cafe coming – I do not know when – where the basic tone will be celebratory, and the underlying emotion will be relief. Some lift in equities, some normalization in credit, and some feeling that the worst is all behind us – that Dividend Cafe is coming. Will it be next week or months down the line? I do not know. But I look forward to writing it, and I imagine many of you look forward to reading it.

This week is not that week, and I believe this week’s Dividend Cafe does as much to make sense of everything going on and where we are headed than anything I have written so far. I also do believe the national call we hosted on Tuesday remains current in explaining our outlook.

In the meantime, the country as a whole, not just investors, remain in a period of uncertainty and challenge. And out of this uncertainty and challenge, I believe will come much better days. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

National Conference Call Replay - Covid 19 and Market Lows Mar 17, 2020

Join TBG Chief Investment Officer for a National Conference Call where he delves deep into the reasoning behind the massive moves in the markets over the last three weeks. Share it with your friends!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG INVESTMENT COMMITTEE CORONAVIRUS UPDATE – WEEK OF MARCH 16, 2020 Mar 16, 2020

If one looks at the rapidity with which this market has sold off, the levels to which it has sold off, and the stressors that currently exist in our financial system and society at large, there is surely a lot of anxiety and uncertainty that permeates. This special Dividend Cafe will get into a handful of things that just simply must be said, offers a podcast from our Investment Committee, and addresses a lot of what is going on in the world that may help explain this crazy mess. Please, if you have time, join us in the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Could It Be the Bottom? Mar 13, 2020

It is so hard to stick to my normal Dividend Cafe format these days (not that anyone cares). I am trying to write two per week, and the markets are changing minutes after certain segments get written (or more challenging, the news itself alters or stories take on different shapes). On two days this week (Monday and Thursday) the violence of the market drops required additional email communications. Clients receive their special bulletin specific to portfolio holdings on Wednesday, as well. The state of affairs now makes the exact timing and precision of these communications difficult. We hope you understand.

I set it up that way because there are things in flux right now as I type that by the time I submit to my team may change, and by the time you read this may change again. I apologize for that. But that is the state of affairs in which we find ourselves. My feeling is that the market this week went through a Black Monday type day (October 1987). On that fateful day we dropped 22.6% in one day (and it did rebound 6% the next day). This week, going into Friday morning the market is down 18% in four days (and as I sit here in type from a Starbucks on 47th Street at 5:30am eastern, the market looks set to open up 5%). So while the violence was four days, not one, and 23% is a lot more than 18%, there is still the same feeling of shock and horror and the rapidity with which this all happened.

I am dedicating this week’s Dividend Cafe to what happened this week, what has to happen from here for markets to (a) normalize, (b) begin recovery, and (c) finish recovery. It is a long one, but hopefully easy to read and useful to your understanding and thinking about this crisis.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dividend Cafe - Special Midweek Edition - Live from Washington D.C. Mar 10, 2020

*Please go to dividendcafe.com to read this important post**

I wrote an awful lot of stuff over the weekend for this special mid-week Dividend Cafe. I wrote about the bizarre reality that with three days last week that the market was down nearly 1,000 points (Friday's was intra-day, but it did come back at the end of the day), the market was actually up 450 points last week. I wrote about various peripheral economic and market realities that I thought useful in the fuller context of the current state of affairs. And then Monday happened, and I have spent the 3 am - 6 am hours of Tuesday morning re-writing the entire thing.

I hesitate to even mention that as I type, the market futures are pointing to a 650+ point jump in the market (it had been a lot more). First of all, that is just a small part of yesterday's collapse, and secondly, by the time I am done typing this paragraph, let alone by the time you are done reading it, the possibility of reversal or adjustment is extremely high. These are the times in which we find ourselves.

You should have received my bulletin last night on the 11th worst market day in history that was Monday (and the worst day since the financial crisis). I stand behind every word written yesterday afternoon and will be reiterating much of it in this Dividend Cafe. But I really want to dive deeper into the oil saga playing out with Saudi and Russia, and I really want to unpack more of the economic ramifications of the present hysteria. That is what this Dividend Cafe will be devoted to - a bit more meat on the bone, none of which is meant to take away from the fundamental behavioral lessons I am desperately trying to reaffirm in all communications right now.

So jump on into this special Dividend Cafe

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Rollercoaster is Better Than A Slide Mar 06, 2020

It's FRIDAY, MARCH 6 - The markets were down over 800 points early but right at this moment are down 650 points. I have no doubt markets will move from here, and I have no idea which direction. Big moves, in either direction, are the daily expectation right now.

This week’s Dividend Cafe offers as much information, guidance, and reality as we are able to muster.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG Investment Committee - The Week of March 2, 2020 Mar 03, 2020

Our Investment Committee's weekly podcast today basically delves into all things market correction, market snap-back rally, coronavirus, and the political landscape shift of the weekend. An important listen in these volatile times. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Wicked Week It Was Feb 28, 2020

The market ended the month of February with a level of pain in the markets not seen since December of 2018 (fourteen months ago). As of press time Friday morning we have experienced sell-offs every day this week, creating the worst week for markets since the financial crisis. The details are unpacked in the Dividend Cafe … The level of sell-off in the market is discussed but so are a variety of circumstances around it that very much warrant additional analysis. I made the decision this Friday morning to ditch literally pages of commentary and analysis I wrote over the last few days and just write afresh straight from the heart on all that is going on. Please click through and read.

This is not a Dividend Cafe to miss.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG INVESTMENT COMMITTEE CORONAVIRUS UPDATE – WEEK OF FEBRUARY 24, 2020 Feb 24, 2020

The ongoing spread of coronavirus and uncertainty surrounding such pushed markets down a thousand points on the Dow (as of press time), and brought the ten-year bond yield to very near an all-time low. This 3%+ drop in stocks brings the equity market to where it was at the beginning of the year. Bond values continue to surge, offsetting much of the equity value drop for diversified investors.

In this special edition podcast our Investment Committee unpacks what is happening, why, what it means, what it doesn’t mean, and what we are doing (and not doing) about it. We also reiterate our theme of illiquidity-investments for 2020, and shout from the mountaintops the message that we are owners of business, not speculators in the stock market.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Short Market Week But Not a Boring One! Feb 21, 2020

We have the whole week unpacked in this week’s Dividend Cafe, and ample commentary on the Fed, earnings, politics and more.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Looking Beyond One Week Feb 14, 2020

We cover the market action of the week (at least up until press time) this week. And yes, there are plenty of thoughts and ideas around the present investment environment ... But I also think you will find this week's Dividend Cafe to feature some longer-term reflections on the economy, on long-term challenges that drive so much economic behavior.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Resilient Investor vs. A Resilient Market Feb 07, 2020

Sometimes it is important to remember that “volatile” is not a synonym for “negative.” Volatility refers to “up and down” movement – directionless – choppy – uncertain.

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we do all we need to do to understand the current market volatility, to consider the right portfolio approach to all present state of affairs, and of course to break down one of the most significant political weeks in recent times.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG Investment Committee Outlook - Week of February 3, 2020 Feb 04, 2020

Topics discussed: The market has gotten a bit exciting, and this week's special edition Dividend Cafe podcast explores why. We look into what it means, what is causing it, what investors have gotten right, and where we go next.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Volatility Virus and Cure Jan 31, 2020

Topics discussed: On Friday the regular Dividend Café for the week went out, and it included as much of an update as possible around the UK elections and the China trade war … But within hours of the submission there was more news, and then the next day even more, and then over the weekend even more still. I don’t want to wait until Friday to provide the latest and greatest … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

AUDIO VERSION: YEAR AHEAD/YEAR BEHIND - Our 2020 Perspective Jan 31, 2020

This is the AUDIO VERSION of Year Ahead/Year Behind annual report read by David L. Bahnsen, Founder, Chief Investment Officer, Managing Partner of The Bahnsen Group.

Topics discussed: This paper is a must read or listen for clients of The Bahnsen Group, as we unpack 2019 in review, evaluate what we were saying a year ago versus how things played out, and most importantly, do a deep dive on what we expect in 2020. A new decade is underway, and this piece provides actionable perspective on what investors ought to be thinking and doing in this pivotal time.

Click on the link below to download the written piece so you can access the charts and listen to every word of what has been an annual tradition of The Bahnsen Group.

Links mentioned in this episode: https://thebahnsengroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2020-year-ahead-published.pdf DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG Investment Committee Outlook - Week of January 27, 2020 Jan 27, 2020

Topics discussed: The market dropped 450 points today as fears and uncertainties around the Chinese coronavirus make their way through the markets. In this special edition podcast with our whole investment committee we make the case for “don’t just do something, stand there” as the right investor response to the present news. We appeal to history, market realities, health epidemic precedents, and basic trade economics to make the case for avoiding panic, and letting an unresolved problem get resolved. Please give it a listen, and please reach out with any questions you may have.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Politics Played A Role in Portfolios Jan 24, 2020

Topics discussed: Markets re-opened Tuesday this week after the MLK holiday on Monday, and experienced some modest moves to the downside on the week as of Thursday's press time ... But in a shortened market week where the big political news (impeachment hearings) are completely ignored by markets, and where there is no notable macroeconomic news or Federal Reserve announcements to process, it gives us a great opportunity to catch up on other topics not given enough attention in the Dividend Cafe.

We'll talk shale this week, viral fears in China, why a high bond supply does the opposite to interest rates that most people expect, and we spend a lot of time in Politics & Money ...

So jump on into the Dividend Cafe. It's a good one.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG Investment Committee Outlook -Week of January 20, 2020 Jan 21, 2020

Topics discussed: We are too early into earnings season to have much to say and the impeachment/political 'stuff' is enough to exhaust anyone. But 'global macroeconomics' - this is the stuff that gets us out of bed in the morning. And that's what we did this morning - we got out of bed and we talked global macro for you all. This is a not-to-be-missed Dividend Cafe podcast from our whole investment committee ...

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG Investment Committee Outlook - Week of January 13, 2020 Jan 17, 2020

Topics discussed: Managing Director, Partner Deiya Pernas and Director of Equity Research discuss the TBG client portfolio construction and infrastructure, equity and market hightlights of the week.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Phase One, An Election Battle, and Earnings Galore Jan 17, 2020

As of press time Thursday it has been another strong week in markets, with the formal signing of the phase one-U.S/China trade deal, a strong start to earnings season, and the continued general feeling that this is a good market in a good economy. Of course, life is never that simple, and markets are really never that simple, so we have a lot more to say about everything.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

National Resilience Extends to Markets Jan 10, 2020

Topics discussed: We have a full Dividend Cafe to bring you today. The news cycle did not slow down for the new year, and indeed, we have already opened the year with a slew of geopolitical events that add drama to capital markets.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG Investment Committee Talks The Year Behind and The Year Ahead Jan 09, 2020

Topics discussed: But first, I would direct you all to the annual white paper I do every year recapping the year behind us and offering our perspective on the year in front of us - Year Ahead/Year Behind. I believe you will find it to be an informative and useful tool in understanding the recent past and considering the immediate future. Share with any you would like.

Links mentioned in this episode: A Year Ahead/A Year Behind DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Present Under Every Investor's Tree Dec 20, 2019

Consider this week’s Dividend Cafe an early Christmas present, not just because of Brexit and the phase one China trade deal and, of course, a 2019 in risk assets that has been one for the ages … but mostly because this is essentially a double issue Dividend Cafe with ample coverage on all the things you should be caring about right now as an investor. Because there will not be a Dividend Cafe next week we doubled up for you this week, so take a break from wrapping presents, grab a coffee (or egg nog), and jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

TBG Investment Committee Talks Trump, Tariffs, Taxes, and Brexit Dec 16, 2019

Topics discussed: On Friday the regular Dividend Café for the week went out, and it included as much of an update as possible around the UK elections and the China trade war … But within hours of the submission there was more news, and then the next day even more, and then over the weekend even more still. I don’t want to wait until Friday to provide the latest and greatest … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tweeting The Market Higher Dec 13, 2019

Topics discussed: The markets ripped higher and I will unpack more details when you click into this week's Dividend Cafe ... Since the market’s massive rally last Friday after mind-numbing good jobs numbers the market had barely budged this week. The Democrats in the House filed articles of impeachment against the President this week. The Fed stood still on interest rates. And the British voters headed to the polls to elect their Prime Minister. It wasn’t a boring week in the world, just in the market (until Thursday morning). So this week we’ll dive into the jobs data, the strength of the economy, the vulnerabilities in the economy, the pending tariff deadline, and all sorts of big things. It’s a whopper of info, so let’s get caffeinated in the Dividend Cafe ...

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Ups and Downs of the Market This Week Dec 06, 2019

Topics discussed: Welcome to the final month of 2019! I. Love. December. I love it no matter what the market does. I love it no matter what the news cycle is doing. It is just a wonderful time of year, and I have done my best to bring in this special month with a special Dividend Cafe - covering all the ups and downs in the market this week, really meaty stuff on the trade war, the most important thing I could ever say about "perma-bears," the timely reality under-pinning dividend growth, and a really crucial economic lesson. I think this is the best Dividend Cafe of the year (okay, maybe I say that too much), but jump on in and let's get in the December spirit ...

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Happy Thanksgiving! - 2019 Nov 27, 2019

Thanksgiving is the one week of the year, where we bypass market commentary and economic analysis in the Dividend Café. It serves as a logical week to take a break from the Fed, global GDP growth, the trade war, earnings, and market valuations. And affirmatively, we should be doing a Thanksgiving edition of Dividend Café every week, because that is how much gratitude we have at The Bahnsen Group.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Mayor Pete and Your Portfolio - TBG Investment Committee Nov 25, 2019

In this week’s special Dividend Cafe podcast and video, The Bahnsen Group’s Investment Committee dives into the economic policy platform of surging Democratic nominee, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Some refreshers on dividend taxation are in order, and so much more. A pre-Thanksgiving special edition!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Did Someone Say Trade Deal? Nov 22, 2019

Topics discussed: As of press time mid-day on Thursday, the market was down about 250 points on the week, which is not noteworthy in that 250 points is nothing, especially divided by 28,000, and especially because it is three or four days of action. I only mention it because (a) Some of you are getting bored by the low volatility market of the last few weeks and this makes it sound like markets moved, and (b) Some of the chatter behind the couple points we moved are interesting.

But I am not going to pretend that there is much substance behind a 250 point move; markets can move 250 points on a sneeze! What I will do this week is provide some history, provide some economics, and provide some perspective – because frankly, I don’t think there are a lot of other places to get it right now! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Worldview of Emerging Markets Nov 19, 2019

Topics discussed: We have spent way too much time talking about the trade war, tariffs, the Fed, and Trump this year, and not nearly enough time talking about sustainable growth in the emerging markets. Our Investment Committee thoroughly unpacks what we believe to be one of the more intriguing parts of our investing worldview at The Bahnsen Group in this extensive and thought-provoking discussion.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

There's Reason for an Optimistic Outlook Nov 15, 2019

Topics discussed: Greetings from New York City where I actually spent a day in Connecticut this week with clients and another day in Boston with clients and investment banks. I am en route back to California as this is being delivered to you, where I will immediately experience a 50-degree bump in weather from departure city to arrival city.

Markets had no such weather volatility this week as things were reasonably tame yet again (at least as of press time). This has thus far been a very flat week in markets both from start to finish but also intra-day as well. I think the reason for that is examined in a clear and understandable way in this week's Dividend Cafe.

But I strive to do a lot more in the Dividend Cafe this week than just look at the week that was in markets ... We look at the full scope of the China trade status, going into 2020, we look at the cash on the sidelines of the American economy, and we look at where growth can be expected to be for years to come (this is my favorite section of the Dividend Cafe this week!). I even offer a periodic reminder on the realities of gold investing, and of course, offer the normal mix of politics and money. Click on in, check it out, and welcome to the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

All-Time Highs and Trading Away the Tariffs Nov 08, 2019

Topics discussed: I am quite happy to say that this week's market saw several new all-time highs reached (Dow and S&P 500) - more on that in the Dividend Cafe - but additionally happy to say that the reason for such was largely centered around pretty significant movement in the China trade talks ... So we unpack at great length this week all going on with the trade talks, and we also cover the math of "all-time highs." We also get to discuss manufacturing, the crazy IPO market, the reason people like the stock market right now (us too!), and so much more. This is a weekly Dividend Cafe I am proud of - click on in ...

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

New York Annual Due Diligence Takeaways Nov 05, 2019

Topics discussed: Our 14th annual New York due diligence trip featuring 20+ meetings with top portfolio managers, economic strategists, and alternatives partners was a whirlwind, and in this special podcast, we invite you into the key takeaways for us on this significant trip.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Fed Delivers as Promised Nov 01, 2019

Topics discussed: And just like that, we find ourselves in the month of November, a stunningly quick completion of the first ten months of the year. This means that we are now officially in the holiday season, that the Presidential election is only one year away, and that end of the year portfolio re-positionings are on the top of everyone's mind (okay, not everyone's, but at least ours).

This week's market produced all-time highs in the S&P 500, and this week's Dividend Cafe looks at why that is, how painfully unintelligent it is to think that "an all-time high" is something to be afraid of, and why the Fed did what they did this week. There is plenty to chew on, so please do grab a coffee, and jump on into the Dividend Cafe ...

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Politics, Policy, and your Portfolio Oct 25, 2019

Topics discussed: Greetings from New York City where we are approaching the end of an intense week of meetings, discussions, debates, analysis, and soon, decisions. It has been invigorating and we still have a couple of days of meetings to go, so a more comprehensive download will linger for another week. But in the meantime, this week's Dividend Cafe will recap the week in markets, offer an update on the Fed, explore the latest on NAFTA 2.0, seek to scare you a bit, and seek to encourage you a bit. There is also yet another pretty comprehensive analysis of the political landscape and what it means to markets right now. So jump on into the Dividend Cafe, and let's explore the latest and greatest in the world of investing.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

An Economic Lesson For The Short Term with Long Term Implications Oct 18, 2019

Topics discussed: Greetings from the financial capital of the world that is New York City where I have officially begun my annual "due diligence" week, and where another week in the markets deserves comprehensive analysis. We focus our efforts this week on what was done and not done in the "pre-written, phase one" trade deal, but we also delve into Brexit, the yield curve, Elizabeth Warren proposals, and even the lottery this week. But one thing I ask this week - persevere through all the weekly commentary to get to the "economic lesson" of the week. It is the subject most near and dear to my heart this week, and hopefully will be well worth the listen. So jump on into the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Financial Implications of Winning or Losing the Trade War Oct 16, 2019

Topics discussed: The market loved the word Friday that the trade war talks did not blow up, and that they, in fact, have created the possibility of a reasonably positive “phase one” deal. The issues around the trade war and their impact on the economy, the market, and the political atmosphere, are all so significant, they warranted a SPECIAL podcast discussion with our investment committee. So listen or view below as you wish, and reach out with any questions! This is a very comprehensive discussion of the whole matter, and you deserve to have the misinformation made right.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

High Drama as Trade Talks Continue Oct 11, 2019

Topics discussed: Some day-to-day volatility in the market unsurprisingly surfaced in markets this week as we were down 100, down 300, then up 200 the first three days of the week, all around various chitter-chatter as to where China-trade talks were or were expected to be or were rumored to go or whatever ... This is a frustrating Dividend Cafe to send because I have no choice in terms of the timeline but to submit it before we have gotten real reports on how the trade talks have gone Thursday, and yet you will be receiving this Friday and of course by now there may very well be some updated report as to how the status of such talks. Of course, by early next week, I will provide an interim Dividend Cafe to give an update on the state of affairs ...

The trade talks are the largest macro issue to watch right now, as once again the futures market has all but fully priced in another Fed quarter-point rate cut (at the October FOMC meeting at the end of the month). But markets are likely to respond to earnings results as the new season kicks off this coming week. Expectations are again reduced so how companies report revenue and profit results from the quarter that just was, and what sort of guidance they offer about expected results in the quarters ahead, are very likely to move the needle (in the overall market level, and of course in individual company results).

This week's Dividend Cafe is really focused on the economy, the Fed, politics, and earnings. We look at a preview of earnings season, the idea of a QE4 coming, a deeper dive on economic indicators, and of course, Politics and Money. Grab your coffee, and jump on into the Dividend Cafe ...

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Earnings Season Expectations Oct 09, 2019

Topics discussed:

As hard as it may be to focus on anything other than political drama and the China trade war, we actually have an earnings season starting next week. Listen in or watch as our Investment Committee dives into all our expectations and thoughts of the earnings season that is about to begin, and what it means for investors.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It's the Economy, Stupid Oct 04, 2019

Topics discussed: As of press time the market was down significantly on the week, down approximately 800 points on the Dow since Tuesday morning. Believe it or not, Tuesday/Wednesday were the first back-to-back days of down over 1% (each day) in the S&P 500 all year. We need to look at what the issues are in the market, what to expect as we get into the fourth quarter, and look at the variety of issues that actually matter right now in markets and the world economy. From manufacturing to impeachment and lots of politics, we have it all in this week's Dividend Cafe.

This Week's Market Drop
Manufacturing and Services Sector Data
The Trade War's Effect on the Economy
Markets and Impeachment
Europe is a Debacle
Politics and Markets

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

How Investors Should be Thinking about Politics and their Portfolios - TBG Investment Committee Oct 01, 2019

Topics discussed: What does history tell us about political ramifications to one’s portfolio decision-making? What are the four categories we look at when evaluating political relevance to market action? And what ought investors do in these highly complicated times? This latest podcast/vidcast from our investment committee provides a quality perspective on how to think about the present environment, and will leave you with actionable takeaways on what should be done, and just as importantly, what should not be.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Most Political Dividend Cafe Ever Sep 27, 2019

Topics discussed: With the trade war still front and center in the global economy, earning season three weeks away, and continued questions about the Fed’s plans floating around, why did all market conversations seem to slip into the background this week? Oh yes, the perpetual reality show that is Washington D.C. took over the news this week, and it has led to maybe the most political Dividend Café of recent memory. Now fear not, there is ample coverage of U.S. economic health, monetary policy, and the investment issues near and dear to your heart, but some extensive political-economic commentary is warranted this week. So jump on into the Dividend Café, and we’ll do our best to offend no one, or everyone.

Mandatory Fed Discussion
An economic reality check
Summary of the economic outlook
Are households vulnerable to equity prices?
Small-cap warning
Big word jargon to describe Fed failures

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Index Funds as Weapons of Mass Destruction Sep 25, 2019

Topics discussed: Our investment committee creates this podcast for you to tackle a variety of issues pertinent to investors. The mass increase in the popularity of index funds is the latest topic, only we don’t do it with the dryness and academic focus many advisors may pour on this topic. Rather, we delve into the subject of index funds with a view towards what matters to investors, where risks may actually exist, and what we believe can be done about it. This is worth your time to listen to or view!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The FED did What?? Sep 20, 2019

Topics discussed: Some weeks are filled with little news but lots of market volatility, and then there are weeks like this one, where there actually was very little market volatility, but a lot of news. In this week's Dividend Cafe, we dive into what will be some of the biggest news events of the year, and question why there wasn't a bigger market impact from it all. Investors wanting to understand better what the Fed did this week, what they didn't do, why they did it, and what it means to them, will be well-served to jump into the Dividend Cafe!

We won't just leave you with a little Fed discussion and some thoughts on Oil and the Saudi attack ... The dollar, the trade war, negative yields, and even fracking get a little attention as well. This is a "do not miss" visit to the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What Makes a Good Stock? - TBG Investment Committee - 9/17/19 Sep 18, 2019

4/5ths of The Bahnsen Group's investment committee tackles this week's outlook on the Fed and interest rates, the dicey situation with Iran and the market's response, and most importantly; What makes a good stock?

Is The Trade War Really Over? Sep 13, 2019

Topics discussed: One can be forgiven for assuming the trade war ended in looking at the market. On August 14 (one month ago) the Dow was below 25,500. At press time this week, the Dow is at 27,200, so nearly a 2,000 point recovery in one month (and back to the market level we were at before the re-provocation of the trade war leaving July and entering August). How is this possible?

This "cycle" has played out several times over the last 18 months. Where markets go from here really depends on whether or not “any progress is made.” My goal is to unpack some of that this week in the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Not All Portfolios Are Created Equal - TBG Investment Committee Speaks Sep 11, 2019

Topics discussed: This week's Dividend Cafe podcast with the entire TBG Investment Committee almost makes it without talking about the trade war, the Fed, or Presidential tweets (not quite). But what we do accomplish this week is a digestible, succinct, informative talk on how portfolios are often constructed, and how they ought to be. You will not be surprised to learn that sometimes those two things are not the same ...

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dividend Cafe Meets The Bahnsen Group Investment Committee Sep 06, 2019

Topics discussed: Despite the shortened market week, we got another display of market uncertainty and persistent volatility this week (though lately the upside volatility has outweighed the downside volatility). We use this week's Dividend Cafe to really jump around the horn and give you a succinct but well-packed punch in the state of markets, the outlook to come, the state of interest rates, the concerns in the economy, the challenges, the bright spots, and everything else. This will prove to be an easy read, so please, jump on in to this week's Dividend Cafe ...

The Market, The Trade War, The Rate War, The Yield Curve
What's the Fuss About Brexit
Where Do Markets Go From Here?
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Much Ado About Much Aug 30, 2019

Topics discussed: The bulk of the first half of this week's Dividend Cafe is dedicated to that which is most relevant to the markets right here and right now - the latest, the greatest, and all that is fit to print. Trade war, interest rates, the yield curve - I promise you will get sick of all these terms by the time this little era comes to an end.

But the second half has a prolonged section that I believe you will find far more compelling and relevant to your investment strategy. These economic matters are pivotally important to developing the right framework for investing, and I am completely obsessed with studying it, communicating about it, and ultimately, properly positioning client capital in the midst of it. I expect it to be the great duty of the next twenty years of my adult life and calling. So if this sounds dramatic, click on through and see what the fuss is all about.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Subscribe to the Dividend Cafe Podcast

Investment Committee - August 28, 2019 Aug 29, 2019

Today’s podcast features our entire Investment Committee in a battle royale (of mostly agreement), talking trade war, markets yields, negative rates, “this time it’s different,” stock sectors, and alternative investments.

Subscribe to the Dividend Café Podcast

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Crazy World, Crazy Market - August 22, 2019 Aug 23, 2019

Topics discussed: Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen unpacks everything from the market’s response to "the trade war" and the "the rate war" to where things stand in the ongoing efforts with China, to what the Fed is doing, to the way people are ventilating about the yield curve.

Market Volatility
The Trade War
The Fed and Interest Rates
Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Fears

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Meets the Fiscal Feminist Aug 21, 2019

Topics discussed: For many years now we have been using our Dividend Café property to bring you frequent market commentary and portfolio perspective. Last year, we introduced the Fiscal Feminist identity, spear-headed by our very own Kimberlee Davis to address significant financial issues relevant in the lives of women. Today, we bring you a blended Dividend Café/Fiscal Feminist (the Dividend Feminist, or the Fiscal Café – you pick!) – wherein Kimberlee and I discuss together the whole landscape of financial advice, what approach to portfolio construction a new investor ought to take, and how issues pertinent to women and the Dividend Cafe are far more overlapped than many want to believe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Are We Going Into a Recession? Aug 19, 2019

Topics discussed: We know the following things about the last 2-3 weeks in the market:

(A) The China/trade war has blown up (B) The Yield curve has inverted (C) Negative yields persist all over the globe (D) Recession talk is everywhere

So markets are obviously volatile, but it isn’t clear how these above things relate to one another, and people want to know what is going on. What I seek to do in this short, succinct podcast is get right to the point about what is going on – short term, and long term.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It's Been One Crazy Week in the Markets Aug 15, 2019

Topics discussed: Is volatility back? You tell me - here was the market action this week: Down 400 points Monday, Up 400 points Tuesday. Down 800 points Wednesday. And as I submit this for the week, Thursday (late morning) we are up a little over 100 points (but saw the pre-market futures up and down hundreds of points at a time). There is always one reason for "up & down" volatility (is there any other kind?), and it is uncertainty. In the Dividend Cafe this week we are going to look at the sources of the uncertainty and seek to enhance your understanding of the world affairs that are driving capital markets at present. This has been the most volatile week of the year in the market, with last week being the second most. In other words, since July 31 we really been sitting at non-stop market drama.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Trump and Volatility Aug 14, 2019

Topics discussed:

Volatility expectations in the weeks/months ahead
- Trade war
- Currency
- Brexit
- Hong Kong
- The Fed
- Asset allocation when the 10-year is 1.65% and equities face uncertainty and volatility
- Within equities, what looks good?
Energy sector
Is big tech/new tech dead?
Low beta or high beta?
Outlook for dividend growth

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

When An EasyTrade War Blows Up in your Face Aug 09, 2019

Topics discussed: The last peace treaty in this trade war was supposed to be simple enough: The Chinese agreed to buy more agriculture from the United States and the U.S. agreed to lay off Huawei. Not even that was able to last. The intense stock market volatility of the last week is not the most problematic aspect of the trade war from an economic standpoint. We will focus our analysis on:

(1) The macroeconomic impact on U.S. growth, and

(2) The currency implications for global markets

The outlook for U.S. economic growth is falling apart under the pressures of this trade war. Focusing on the far right of this chart, you see the Business Investment aspect of GDP growth (blue line) accelerating significantly after President Trump was elected, in line with the CEO survey on planned capital expenditures (red line). And then you see both collapsing together in response to trade tensions.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Trade Wars Not So Easy to Win for Investors Aug 05, 2019

Topics discussed: The market suffered its worst week of the year last week and the downside accelerated today in response to China’s currency depreciation and the general market realization that this trade war ending is nowhere in sight. We sat down as an Investment Committee this morning and recorded our best thoughts and ideas around all of this to inform and edify your understanding as it pertains to your portfolio and overall economic expectations. We particularly hope you will at least listen to the ending conclusions we offer. Please listen to this special Dividend Café podcast!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Trump and Trade Again...and Again Aug 02, 2019

Topics discussed:

This week's trip to the Dividend Cafe will look at the overall health of the U.S. economy, at the state of credit markets, at all the context around the Fed's present thinking, and some very important reminders about dividend growth during this crucial time.
Investors should be prepared for two things when central bankers add stimulus to asset prices that are already operating as if they do not need any stimulus: (1) What is high is very possibly going to go higher; and (2) Bad investments will get made, and bad investments do not end well, ever. No central banker or politician can change that.
The Federal Reserve did something they have not done in nearly eleven years this week - they cut interest rates

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Hearing on Spending and Recessions Jul 26, 2019

Markets appear to be up a tad on the week, with little volatility to show for it (as of press time, anyway). Earnings season is off to a really strong start, but I want to wait one more week to begin "report carding" earnings season (partially to not jinx it, and partially because it is a tad premature). I took advantage of this week's slow news week (sorry, Mueller) to talk about the broad economy and my perspective on where we are in the macroeconomic cycle, and what it means for all of us at this stage in the game.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

When Doves Cry Jul 19, 2019

As we enter the middle part of the summer, we also enter the beginning of Q2 earnings season, and this all adds up to fun times. The equity markets puttered around a bit this week and between the "wait and see" on a China trade deal and the "wait and see" on Fed accommodation, earnings ought to be the major story for the next couple of weeks.

In the meantime, I really tried to use this week's Dividend Cafe to unpack some foundational things about the U.S. economy. What does the yield curve tell us about a recession? Why has the Fed become so accommodative to capital markets (there is an answer!)? What would make someone want our Fed to not be independent? What do pension funds tell us about the future of asset allocation? What can government spending tell us about the state of economic growth?

If all of these questions are addressed this week, and they are, plus a few MLP and Brexit comments to boot, can you see why I am so excited to have you join me in the Dividend Cafe?

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Markets are Happy and Well "Fed" Jul 12, 2019

Topics discussed:

Will the Fed Cut?
Is a recession coming?
A look at results of the tax reform bill

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Freedom Tree Planted in the Soil of Ideas Jul 02, 2019

Topics discussed:

A Pregnant Pause in the Trade Tirade
Dividend Cafe; How it All Began
Emerging Markets equals Earnings Growth

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

“Oh no! We’re at an all-time high!” Jun 28, 2019

Topics discussed:

Markets in the first six months of 2019
Fear of Market Highs
Where we are in the trade war with China
Dividend Cafe Podcast will be merged with Advice & Insights Podcast going forward.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Stocks Vs Bonds Jun 21, 2019

Topics discussed:

What stocks and bonds are saying to markets
The Fed and Credit Markets

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Four Negative Weeks end with Best Week of the Year Jun 14, 2019

Topics discussed:

Fed put vs. Trump call - week #2
What Mexico Tariffs?
Business Loses Confidence

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The New Narrative: A Fed Put vs. A Trump Call Jun 07, 2019

Topics discussed:

Mr. Tariff Man moves south
Are tariffs inflationary?
The Fed's signal to markets.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

No Deal, No Relief May 31, 2019

Topics discussed:

Effects of trade war on business investment
Impact is not limited to US and China
Brexit, The Fed, and more

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Human Nature and Twenty More Years of Debt May 24, 2019

Topics discussed:

Financial Advice vs Human Nature
China Trade War
Sovereign Debt
Fed and Interest Rates

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Trade Talks Leaving Fewer Options May 17, 2019

Topics discussed:

The Great Trade Update - Three Options left on the table
The HIT to the GDP Growth - it's real and it could be big
China's "Nuclear" Option - what are the chances that things go Boom

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Trade Teetering by a Tweet May 10, 2019

Topics discussed:

Current state of trade negotians with China
Market Reactions to renewed threats of trade war.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Productivity Numbers IS the story of the Week May 02, 2019

Topics discussed:

Earnings Watch - more come but things look good
Capex Showing Signs of Life
GDP - 'nuff said
Reading between the Fed lines

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Earnings Season Provides Some Gifts Apr 26, 2019

Topics discussed:

Sentiment vs. Fundamentals
When you pray that past is not prologue
Real Estate vs. Stocks in Recession
Getting QE right so we can get the next five years right

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Getting the Growth Story Right Apr 18, 2019

Topics discussed:

Things really are good, but they really are sensitive to conditions that could make them not good
The term “insurance cut”
A slowdown in small business job creation

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Earnings and Dividends Are All The Buzz Apr 12, 2019

Topics discussed:

Earnings over next 4 Weeks
Q1 Anecdote
Brexit and other Beltway Bulls and Bears

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Q2 Picks Up Where Q1 Left Off Apr 05, 2019

Topics discussed:

Q1 in the can
Capex update
The oil price conundrum
China trade deal

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Colluding with The Yield Curve Mar 29, 2019

Topics discussed:

And Germany is the Good One
Growth story for the next decade
The Fed's Special Counsel Investigation is called the Bond Market

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Bearish Fears vs Fear of Missing Out Mar 22, 2019

Topics discussed:

“FOMO” – that fear of missing out
Earnings watch
Brexit Exit

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Putting the Puzzle Pieces of the US Economy Together Mar 15, 2019

Topics discussed:

Obsessed with CAPEX
Job Report Fears
Tax Reform Bill is a Sizeable One
Brexit Bonanza!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What To Make of Earnings Growth? Mar 08, 2019

Topics discussed:

Earnings Valuations Tell the Tale
The Emerging Case for Emerging Markets
European Stimulus or Something Else?

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Inflating Your Portfolio Mar 01, 2019

Topics discussed:

My Diatribe on Inflation
Chairman Powell Talks Inflation
The Case For Financials

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Behaving Thyself Feb 22, 2019

Topics discussed:

The Fed Minutes
More Clarity on Tax Refunds
Calm Before The Storm?

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Excited About Dividends Feb 15, 2019

Topics discussed:

Earnings Watch 2019
Capex Watch 2019
Truth About Tax Reform

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Bottom-up vs. Top-Down Investing Feb 08, 2019

Topics discussed:

Bottom-up and Top Down Investing
Market sector allocation
Politics and markets

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Fed Waves the White Flag and Markets Throw a Party, Part 227 Feb 01, 2019

Topics discussed:

Who Is Leading Who?
What would Mr. Contrarian do?
Catching a good return by the tail

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What to Watch in the U.S. and China Jan 25, 2019

Topics discussed:

Current state of the market
Chinese economic growth & their credit markets
US corporate debt and monetary normalization
Housing Market

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Optimism, Brexit, and Freedom Jan 18, 2019

Topics discussed:

Are Markets Turning Optimistic?
What to Make of the Brexit Drama 3.Separating The Taxed from the Untaxed

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Investors Don’t Want Safety, They Want the Illusion of Safety Jan 11, 2019

Topics discussed:

Safety isn't Always Safe
No Fix from Fixed Income Only
Corporate Debt One Rung Above Junk

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dividend Cafe - Happy New Year Edition 2019 Jan 04, 2019

Topics discussed:

Fear of a Melt-Up??
Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Risk
Are Computers to Blame?

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What Do These Record Highs and Volatile Lows Mean? Dec 28, 2018

Topics discussed:

What Happened in December?
High Yield Is Highly Important
Volatility, Meet Valuation

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Fed Tightens Things Once Again Dec 21, 2018

Topics discussed:

The secret sauce in the Fed's actions and words
Cost of capital vs. return on capital
Will the market "yield" to the curve

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

God Grant Me The Serenity Dec 14, 2018

Topics discussed:

Working only on the things you CAN control
P/E Ratios and Stocks going Down
A Diatribe of Dislocations

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Market Bloodbath Explained Dec 06, 2018

Topics discussed:

That Pesky Yield Curve
The Good and Bad of Volatility
Connecting the Dots on FedSpeak

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Uncertainty Rattles The Markets Nov 30, 2018

Topics discussed:

A Two-Headed Friend (or Foe)
Making Sense of the U.S. Energy Sector
Bitcoin Boondoggle

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This Oily China Problem Nov 16, 2018

Topics discussed:

Credit Market Realities
Brexit Bonanza
Pipelines further de-correlate

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Markets Love Midterms Nov 09, 2018

Topics discussed:

Jobs, jobs, jobs
Diversification Means Always Being Upset, and Achieving Your Financial Goals
Regulation Decline Spurring Growth?

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Farewell October: Markets, MidTerms, and Trade Wars Nov 02, 2018

Topics discussed:

Trade War Turmoil
Earnings, or Price-to-Earnings?
Capex alert - or, How Is the Economy?

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

What To Make of This Market Correction Oct 26, 2018

Topics discussed:

Why Are The Markets in Turmoil?
When does the high Debt-to-GDP ratio become a problem?
Why are U.S. monetary conditions tightening?

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Curiosity Peaks as Volatility Adds Tension Oct 19, 2018

Topics discussed:

Are rising interest rates to blame for market volatility?
Unpacking what really happened in last week's meltdown
Housing market weakness

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Markets Meet Gravity Oct 11, 2018

Topics discussed:

What Happened This Week?
Shooting Straight on Bond Yields
Key Takeaways From the Sell-Off

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Inflation Rate Scare, or a Non-Corroborated Story? Oct 05, 2018

This week, [someone], [someone else] and [another person] cover [topic].....

Topics discussed:

Bitter Fight with Canada Barely Avoided
Will China Play Out Like Canada?
Bonds, Short Duration Bonds

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

What Is the Fed Worried About? Just About Everything. Sep 28, 2018

Topics discussed:

Capex, the key ingredient in higher productivity
China's Currency Manipulation Mitigates Tariffs
Tax Reform Results in Huge On-Shore Spending

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A World Traveling Investor Sep 21, 2018

Topics discussed:

The right asset allocation means you're not always following the market moves
Japan's economy is a telling story
Chinese Tariff Rumor still don't move the market

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

One Decade Is Not Like The Rest Sep 14, 2018

This week, David breaks down the week and remembers the events of a decade ago

Topics discussed:

The Great Recession
Trade War Leverage
Tax Reform Isn't the Only Reason for the Economic Bump

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Actively Clarifying What Has Passively Become Silly Sep 07, 2018

Topics discussed:

Market Epicurean Series On 2008 Financial Crisis
Active vs Passive Investing
Cause of the next Recession
Which asset classes are up, which are down
Repatriation of Corporate profits

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com Advice and Insights Podcast - Passive vs Active Investing Special Market Epicurean Series On The Financial Crisis Of 2008

There’s Never Been a Recession When Profits Were Growing Aug 31, 2018

This week, David covers the market moves

Topics discussed:

Yield and Phillips Curve - how do they work?
The Hardest Job In the World - Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Is Capex Capping?

Links mentioned in this episode:

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Central Bankers Unite, Politicians Face Fright Aug 24, 2018

Topics discussed:

Central Bankers Descend on Jackson Hole
The Fed is Getting Ready To Make Another Move
Markets Hold Steady While the Political Drama Takes Flight

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com Advice and Insights Podcast TheBahnsenGroup.com

Global Tensions Ripple Through World Markets Aug 17, 2018

This week CIO David Bahnsen discusses headwinds to global economic growth, emerging markets, Turkey, dollar liquidity and more.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Midterm Mayhem Inflating or Deflating Markets Aug 10, 2018

CIO David Bahnsen discusses current markets from the basis for market optimism to the prospects for more capital expenditures, to the real debate behind inflation and deflation

Topics discussed:

Causes for Cautious Optimism
Midterm Election and Markets
Much more

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Article on 20th Anniversary of Fracking @ MarketEpicurean.com

Trading Earnings for Tariffs Aug 03, 2018

This week we get into the state of the economy Topics discussed:

State of Economy
4.1% GDP Growth
Successful Investor Behavior

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Is The Bull Coming Back? Jul 26, 2018

Topics discussed:

Tax Reform Part Deux?
The Inflation Chatter
As profits go, so goes the market
Contrarian Nugget of the Week

The Easy Path is Ending Jul 19, 2018

This week, [someone], [someone else] and [another person] cover [topic].....

Topics discussed:

A Mid-Year Look at the Midstream Sector
Why Trump May Not Back Down
Not All Inflation is Created Equal

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Sigh of Relief Jul 13, 2018

This week, David discusses this week in markets.....

Topics discussed:

Trade war With China
Bond Market
Jobs
and more

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Trumpian Tariff Tango Jul 06, 2018

This week, David upacks this holiday week in markets.....

Topics discussed:

Trade/ Tariffs
Emerging Markets

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

One T Giveth, and the Other T Taketh Away Jun 29, 2018

This week, David covers the ongoing market reactions surrounding trade.....

Topics discussed:

trade policy contributing to uncertainty
dividend growth investing and separating market price fluctuations from market fundamentals

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The War Between Tax Reform and Tariffs Jun 22, 2018

This week, David covers from trade stuff, to capex, to Japan, to so much more.....

Topics discussed:

China's retaliation against US tariffs
Small Business CAPEX on the rise!
US moves up to #2 in world oil production
much more

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Fed, North Korea, and Stuff the Market Cares About Jun 15, 2018

This week, David covers what was a busy "big news" week, yet markets barely moved (as of recording time) .....

Topics discussed:

Singapore summit w/ North Korea
Fed interest rate hike
Much more

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Thing Causing Tension For Investors Jun 08, 2018

This week David highlights the push/pull between bullish economic news vs. bearish concerns around monetary policy ...

Topics discussed:

Health of US Economy
Fed and short term interest rates
Options for investors

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Italy, The EU, and U.S. Markets Jun 01, 2018

This week, David covers a week of compressed volatility in markets .....

Topics discussed:

Political climate in Italy
Implications for the EU, Sovereign debt and US markets
Structural impedements to growth in Europe
Further evidence the bull market has not ended
The Fed and easing regulation
Tariffs

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

More Financial Food For Thought May 25, 2018

This week, David covers a variety of things effecting markets .....

Topics discussed:

Interest rates
Yield curve (and how it could effect the 2020 Presidential Election)
Oil prices
Oil and Natural Gas Pipelines
Dollar rally
Trade deals and much more.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The New Normal Looks Like The Old Normal May 18, 2018

This week, David covers some of his favorite topics .....

Topics discussed:

Capex
Alternatives
Emerging Markets
Oil
Japan
The Fed

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Taking a Stand On Interest Rates May 11, 2018

This week, David tackles a variety of topics .....

Topics discussed:

Interest rates
Monetary policy
Capex
The bond market

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Are Markets Aware Of This Positive Earnings Season? May 04, 2018

This week, David covers .....

Topics discussed:

Positive earnings reports
Reasons behind the market reaction to this postive earnings season.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Tug o' War Between Earnings and Bond Yields Apr 27, 2018

This week, David covers .....

Topics discussed:

Earnings
Rising Long Term Interest Rates
Political landscape and the market

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In Defense of Market Bulls Apr 20, 2018

This week, David and looks back at the week and looks forward to earnings season.....

Topics discussed:

lessening of trade related volatility
reasons to be bullish

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Volatility and YOU Apr 14, 2018

This week, David Bahnsen covers important concepts regarding investor behavior in light of recent market volatility, and more.....

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Week that Wasn't Sure of Itself Apr 08, 2018

This week, Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen discusses the wild swings in markets this week.

Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com

Recapping Q1 2018 & March's Market Movers Mar 29, 2018

This week, Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen covers the increased volatility in the markets, and what investors should expect going forward.

Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com

The Surprises of 2018 Mar 22, 2018

This week, David L. Bahnsen covers the years in markets and reveals his views on whether or not investors should expect more surprises in 2018.

Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com www.TheBahnsenGroup.com

Larry Kudlow, March Madness, and More! Mar 15, 2018

This week, David L. Bahnsen discusses President Trump's appointment of Larry Kudlow as NEC Chairman, as well as recapping market trends and some talk on March Madness!

Links mentioned in this episode:

www.DividendCafe.com
www.MarketEpicurean.com
www.AdviceandInsights.com

Making Bad Policy Matter Again Mar 09, 2018

This week, David L. Bahnsen recaps the crazy week in markets caused by the Trump administration's tariff announcement.

Links mentioned in this episode:

www.DividendCafe.com
www.AdviceandInsights.com

Tying a Bow around the Gift of February Mar 02, 2018

This week, David L. Bahnsen reviews the volatility, highs, and lows of February in the markets.

Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com

Reincarnated as the Bond Market Feb 23, 2018

This week, David L. Bahnsen discusses the whole new role that bonds are playing in the market.

Topics discussed:

It's the bond market, genius
Is a capex boom being missed?
Be careful about what is supposed to be obvious

Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com

Markets Settle and Rebound Feb 16, 2018

This week, Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen discusses:

Topics discussed:

The re-pricing of stocks in tug-a-war
The tragedy of higher wages
When things get this screwy, they also get this good?

Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com

The Week Volatility Said, "Remember Me?" Feb 09, 2018

This week, David Bahnsen covers this week's market volatility and what investors should learn from it. Topics discussed:

"Navigating" through volatility
What could Washington D.C. do to really make this worse?
Is this all going to spook the Fed?

Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com

So Markets CAN Move Up and Down? Feb 02, 2018

This week, David L. Bahnsen discusses

Recent market volatility
The most encouraging thing about the economy
Hedging deflation and buying growth

Links mentioned in this episode:

www.DividendCafe.com

Stock Market Says, "What Government Shutdown?" Jan 26, 2018

This week, Chief Investment Officer David Bahnsen covers

Topics discussed:

The slippery mess of understanding oil
A primer on equity market risk
The potential game-changer at the Fed

Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com

The Next Move in this Market Jan 19, 2018

This week, David Bahnsen recaps the week in markets and reviews the ket takeaways from our 2018 whitepaper.

Topics discussed:

The excesses of markets and human behavior
Sector outlooks for 2018
Why asset allocation matters
Links mentioned in this episode: https://www.hightoweradvisors.com/team/~/media/hightower/team/bahnsen/documents/tbg%202018%20whitepaper%20pdf_v1.ashx?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiT0RrMlkyWm1aRFUxTVdOaSIsInQiOiJkbnhKcWUzbVFqaFpRXC82SW9nRitoZ2s4MzY4cHlWSmNqc2ppY3NKeHFtUlJJd284UitIbHNDU2N3eTg3NHBGcks5amdqU2FiVXZYbmdNekIySkZRakR6cVF1c2hvZmp2NjF0SSt0aTNpUXY0NTdoWXZabVRvODlXYjRXK2RqdUgifQ%3D%3D

The Death of the PermaBear (Dare to Dream) Jan 12, 2018

This week, David covers all sorts of things that matter to you as an investor.....

Topics discussed:

What Dow 25,000 really means
How I feel about perma-bears
Some timely coverage about value investing
The Fed

Links mentioned in this episode:

http://dividendcafe.com

The Changing Weather of 2018 Jan 05, 2018

This week, David looks at the year ahead.....

Topics discussed:

A new podcast
Increased volatility
The bond market
Commodity price inflation

Links mentioned in this episode:

http://dividendcafe.com

Santa Delivers the Most Market-Friendly Tax Cut In Over 30 Years - Dec. 22, 2017 Dec 21, 2017

Santa Delivers the Most Market-Friendly Tax Cut In Over 30 Years - Dec. 22, 2017 by The Bahnsen Group

The Fed Walked Into Alabama to Buy Some Bitcoin and Their Taxes Went Down - Dec. 15, 2017 Dec 14, 2017

The Fed Walked Into Alabama to Buy Some Bitcoin and Their Taxes Went Down - Dec. 15, 2017 by The Bahnsen Group

David Bahnsen - Investors told to Brace for Steepest Rate Hikes Since 2006 Dec 13, 2017

David Bahnsen - Investors told to Brace for Steepest Rate Hikes Since 2006 by The Bahnsen Group

(Not) Our First Ever Piece on Tax Reform and Markets Dec 07, 2017

(Not) Our First Ever Piece on Tax Reform and Markets by The Bahnsen Group

Here's Why Market Timing Doesn't Work Nov 30, 2017

Here's Why Market Timing Doesn't Work by The Bahnsen Group

A Thanksgiving Message from The Bahnsen Group Nov 21, 2017

A Thanksgiving Message from The Bahnsen Group by The Bahnsen Group

Tax Reform and Your Portfolio Nov 16, 2017

Tax Reform and Your Portfolio by The Bahnsen Group

Earnings, Exports, and Tax Reform Sausage Nov 08, 2017

Earnings, Exports, and Tax Reform Sausage by The Bahnsen Group

A New Fed Chair and New Tax Code: Just Another Week In Paradise Nov 02, 2017

A New Fed Chair and New Tax Code: Just Another Week In Paradise by The Bahnsen Group

The Equity Bull is Alive and Here is Why Oct 26, 2017

The Equity Bull is Alive and Here is Why by The Bahnsen Group

A Trip through the Fed, the White House, China, and Your Portfolio Oct 19, 2017

A Trip through the Fed, the White House, China, and Your Portfolio by The Bahnsen Group

David Bahnsen On SiriusXM POTUS Oct 19, 2017

David Bahnsen On SiriusXM POTUS by The Bahnsen Group

Is the Market Being Set Up? Oct 12, 2017

Is the Market Being Set Up? by The Bahnsen Group

A Quarter Ends, a President is Confused, and More Oct 05, 2017

A Quarter Ends, a President is Confused, and More by The Bahnsen Group

Tax Plan Revealed! Sep 27, 2017

Tax Plan Revealed! by The Bahnsen Group

Yellen Does Some Yelling Sep 21, 2017

Yellen Does Some Yelling by The Bahnsen Group

A Global State of Affairs Sep 14, 2017

A Global State of Affairs by The Bahnsen Group

Human Nature and Your Portfolio Sep 07, 2017

Human Nature and Your Portfolio by The Bahnsen Group

Hurricane Harvey and Your Portfolio Aug 31, 2017

Hurricane Harvey and Your Portfolio by The Bahnsen Group

The Best Offense Is A Good Defense And The Best Defense A Good Offense - August 25 2017 Aug 24, 2017

The Best Offense Is A Good Defense And The Best Defense A Good Offense - August 25 2017 by The Bahnsen Group

Only One Side to Choose Aug 17, 2017

Only One Side to Choose by The Bahnsen Group

Finally some Clarity on this Stock Market! Aug 10, 2017

Finally some Clarity on this Stock Market! by The Bahnsen Group

The Elusive Pending Stock Market Crash Aug 03, 2017

The Elusive Pending Stock Market Crash by The Bahnsen Group

Profits Earned, Lessons Learned, Sessions Burned Jul 27, 2017

Profits Earned, Lessons Learned, Sessions Burned by The Bahnsen Group

You Can Keep Your Doctor AND Your CPA Jul 20, 2017

You Can Keep Your Doctor AND Your CPA by The Bahnsen Group

The Week the Fed Muscled its way back to the Front Page Jul 13, 2017

The Week the Fed Muscled its way back to the Front Page by The Bahnsen Group

Is North Korea the Next Big Threat to your Portfolio? Jul 06, 2017

Is North Korea the Next Big Threat to your Portfolio? by The Bahnsen Group

Indications of a Bear Market, or Something Else?? Jun 29, 2017

Indications of a Bear Market, or Something Else?? by The Bahnsen Group

2017 Boiling Down to These Two Things Jun 22, 2017

2017 Boiling Down to These Two Things by The Bahnsen Group

A Financial Education Jun 15, 2017

A Financial Education by The Bahnsen Group

Believing in the Lessons of History Jun 08, 2017

The Bahnsen Group is registered with HighTower Securities, LLC, member FINRA, MSRB and SIPC, and with HighTower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through HighTower Securities, LLC; advisory services are offered through HighTower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice. This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the team and do not represent those of HighTower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates.

The Case for Active Dividend Growth Jun 01, 2017

The Case for Active Dividend Growth by The Bahnsen Group

A Week Without Trumpian Drama May 25, 2017

A Week Without Trumpian Drama by The Bahnsen Group

Impeachment Odds Fly, Markets Swoon: What It All Means May 19, 2017

The Bahnsen Group is registered with HighTower Securities, LLC, member FINRA, MSRB and SIPC, and with HighTower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through HighTower Securities, LLC; advisory services are offered through HighTower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice. This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the team and do not represent those of HighTower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates.

Comey Fired and Macron Hired May 11, 2017

The Bahnsen Group is registered with HighTower Securities, LLC, member FINRA, MSRB and SIPC, and with HighTower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through HighTower Securities, LLC; advisory services are offered through HighTower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice. This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the team and do not represent those of HighTower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates.

Sell in May or Hold Today? May 04, 2017

Sell in May or Hold Today? by The Bahnsen Group

Trump's Tax Plan Takes Center Stage Apr 28, 2017

Trump's Tax Plan Takes Center Stage by The Bahnsen Group

Trump, China, and Growth Apr 21, 2017

Trump, China, and Growth by The Bahnsen Group

Is A Bear Market In The Cards? Apr 13, 2017

Is A Bear Market In The Cards? by The Bahnsen Group

The Standout Opportunity for Those Looking Apr 06, 2017

The Standout Opportunity for Those Looking by The Bahnsen Group

A Quarter of Optimism Mar 31, 2017

A Quarter of Optimism by The Bahnsen Group

Expectations for Trump Take Center Stage Mar 23, 2017

Expectations for Trump Take Center Stage by The Bahnsen Group

March Madness or Market Madness Mar 15, 2017

March Madness or Market Madness by The Bahnsen Group

Some Oil In Your Healthcare Mar 10, 2017

Some Oil In Your Healthcare by The Bahnsen Group

Speech Trump vs. Twitter Trump: Dow 21,000 and Climbing Mar 02, 2017

Speech Trump vs. Twitter Trump: Dow 21,000 and Climbing by The Bahnsen Group

What to Worry About is Different Than You Think Feb 23, 2017

What to Worry About is Different Than You Think by The Bahnsen Group

David Bahnsen on The Larry Kudlow Show Feb 21, 2017

David Bahnsen on The Larry Kudlow Show by The Bahnsen Group

The Theory and Practice of Navigating these Booming Markets Feb 17, 2017

The Theory and Practice of Navigating these Booming Markets by The Bahnsen Group

Dividends, Valuations, and Trade Deficits Feb 10, 2017

Dividends, Valuations, and Trade Deficits by The Bahnsen Group

No Protection in Protectionism: Investors, Immigration, and More Feb 02, 2017

No Protection in Protectionism: Investors, Immigration, and More by The Bahnsen Group

Countdown to Dow 30,000 Jan 27, 2017

Countdown to Dow 30,000 by The Bahnsen Group

The Trump Era Begins Jan 19, 2017

The Trump Era Begins by The Bahnsen Group

2017....Off With A Bang! Jan 05, 2017

2017....Off With A Bang! by The Bahnsen Group

Dividends Under the Tree and a Lump of “Gold” in the Stocking Dec 21, 2016

Dividends Under the Tree and a Lump of “Gold” in the Stocking by The Bahnsen Group

Dividends, Dollars, and Central Bankers Dec 16, 2016

Dividends, Dollars, and Central Bankers by The Bahnsen Group

Trump Bump Gets More Interesting Dec 01, 2016

Trump Bump Gets More Interesting by The Bahnsen Group

The Week After: Morning in America Nov 17, 2016

The Week After: Morning in America by The Bahnsen Group

The Craziest Election of our Lives, and Your Portfolio Nov 09, 2016

The Craziest Election of our Lives, and Your Portfolio by The Bahnsen Group

Markets Frightened , Election Tightened, Media not Enlightened Nov 03, 2016

Markets Frightened , Election Tightened, Media not Enlightened by The Bahnsen Group

Learnings, Earnings, and Yearnings Oct 20, 2016

Learnings, Earnings, and Yearnings by The Bahnsen Group

October 14 PODCAST Dividend Cafe Oct 13, 2016

October 14 PODCAST Dividend Cafe by The Bahnsen Group

Live from New York Oct 07, 2016

Live from New York by The Bahnsen Group

Oil and Apple, The Big Apple That Is Sep 29, 2016

Oil and Apple, The Big Apple That Is by The Bahnsen Group

Led by the Fed Sep 23, 2016

Led by the Fed by The Bahnsen Group

The New Normal is the Old - Sept. 16, 2016 Sep 16, 2016

The New Normal is the Old - Sept. 16, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Dividend Cafe - Fall is Here: Will it Mean a Fall is Near? Sept 9 2016 Sep 08, 2016

Dividend Cafe - Fall is Here: Will it Mean a Fall is Near? Sept 9 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Markets and College Football: A Time For Serious Focus – Sept. 2, 2016 Sep 01, 2016

Markets and College Football: A Time For Serious Focus – Sept. 2, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Growth and Debt and Everything in Between - August 26, 2016 Aug 25, 2016

Growth and Debt and Everything in Between - August 26, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Rio, Rubio, and Your Portfolio - August 12, 2016 Aug 12, 2016

Rio, Rubio, and Your Portfolio - August 12, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

A Gold Medal for Disciplined Investing - August 5, 2016 Aug 04, 2016

A Gold Medal for Disciplined Investing - August 5, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Earnings and Elections Cap a Huge July - July 29, 2016 Jul 28, 2016

Earnings and Elections Cap a Huge July - July 29, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

A Win Streak for the Ages and Company Profits Galore – July 22, 2016 Jul 22, 2016

A Win Streak for the Ages and Company Profits Galore – July 22, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

All Time Market Highs Mean ... - July 15, 2016 Jul 15, 2016

All Time Market Highs Mean ... - July 15, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

What To Expect for the Rest of the Year - July 8, 2016 Jul 08, 2016

What To Expect for the Rest of the Year - July 8, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

A Week Not to be Forgotten by Any Investor - July 1, 2016 Jul 01, 2016

A Week Not to be Forgotten by Any Investor - July 1, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Not Out of the Woods – Brexit Part 2 and What it Means to You – June 28, 2016 Jun 27, 2016

David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer of The Bahnsen Group, sounds off more with ten observations about BREXIT and the market's response to it

Bookies vs. Pollsters and Your Portfolio - June 17, 2016 Jun 15, 2016

Bookies vs. Pollsters and Your Portfolio - June 17, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Fedexit: Forget Brexit - June 10, 2016 Jun 09, 2016

Fedexit: Forget Brexit - June 10, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Forbes Article - One Man’s BREXIT is Another Man’s Prosperity – June 2, 2016 Jun 03, 2016

Forbes Article - One Man’s BREXIT is Another Man’s Prosperity – June 2, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

From May to June and Not a Moment Too Soon - June 3, 2016 Jun 02, 2016

From May to June and Not a Moment Too Soon - June 3, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

The Economy, Fed, and You - May 27, 2016 May 26, 2016

Dividend Cafe - The Economy, Fed, and You - May 27, 2016

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