Fresh of the #podcast air-waves of The #DailyDisruptor, I explore the relationship between:
USDollar #Currencies, #Money, #Monetization, #QE, #CentralBankPolicy, #DebtMarkets, 10 Year #Yields, and #HardAssets such as #Gold.
With the aid of a new application, combining quantum-information processing principles with AI technology,
for discerning otherwise invisible relationships among financial and economic factors, and how the movement of people, machines, and capital reflexively impact each other on a global scale,
in this latest episode, produced this past Sunday Evening, I share my highest conviction insights and active research findings.
The podcast also touches on where to go and how to best express these emerging opportunities -- so you, our active listeners from around the world can start protecting your capital and levering uncertainty for competitive advantage.
That also means positioning yourself for the recovery in the aftermath of this #coronavirusoutbreak and health crisis.
Stay tuned for updates to keep you on the right side of this market as the crisis unfolds, and gives way to a new period of #disruption and disruptive opportunities.
Regarding inflation of consumer goods and deleveraging of financial assets is that given supply-chain bottlenecks and de-globalization/ protectionists trade policies, fewer goods will be imported and more made domestically at higher wages. That would lead to higher input costs at a time when the interest charges on corporate debt spike higher; leading to a pressure on margins and weaker growth. To curtail that, companies would need to pass on those higher input costs and drive inflation higher. To address that problem, the central banks would start hiking interest rates to curb inflationary pressures. That spells a bond market crash is in the cards. Since the bond market dwarfs the size of the stock market, and at the time that starts happening, the stock market would be rolling over into recession, you can have both the stock market and bond market crashing together. This is likely to play out as we progress through the 2020's. The big question is, how long can we extend thie party -- perhaps 6 months to 18 months, but I am very concerned that with all the moving parts in the global economy in this time of uncertainty, one policy mistake can shorten this party. One thing seems inevitable and that is a deleveraging of the financial bubble of the last 40 years.
Another factor in favor of gold stocks is that one of their biggest input costs is energy -- oil. So above and beyond higher gold prices and the benefits of selecting companies that are showing signs of increasing production, lower energy prices, which contribute to as much as 50% of mining production costs, would boost top line growth and significantly improve margins, respectively. One thing to keep in mind while #coronavirus mitigation and suppression strategies are being implemented, is that, in the short term, mining activities may be disrupted or suspended, while some mines may not be operating at full capacity. Much of the weakness in mines of late has already priced in this potential disruption, and for these reasons valuations look very attractive in a number of junior gold miners. Stay tuned for additional insight into these opportunities, as they unfold.
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