The Contrarian Investor Podcast

US Election 'Black Swans' Include Significant Chance of Political Violence Nov 01, 2024

https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election.

Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack. Content Highlights

Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);
Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);
Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);
The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26);
What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);
What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).

For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.

Tariffs, Strong US Dollar, Stocks Rally, M&A: What to Expect From Trump-onomics 2.0 (Should It Happen) Oct 30, 2024

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. Content Highlights

The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11);
What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45);
How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40);
The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22);
However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40);
Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38);
Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44);
Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).

More From the Guest

Website: MarcToMarket.com;
X: @marcmakingsense.

Trends Point to Trump Victory, Republican Sweep: Flip Pidot Oct 23, 2024

Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 22, 2024, and made available for premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium membership options is available on our Substack page. Content Highlights

What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38);
About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55);
Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58);
Background on the guest (23:05);
If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30);
Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28)

More From the Guest

Website: AmCiv.com;
X: @FlipPidot;
Prediction/polling aggregator: TheSupermodel.com.

The Bull Case for Industrial Commodities, AI, and More, With Tony Greer Oct 01, 2024

Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more.

This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the next day. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. There are a few points in this episode where adult language is used. Listener discretion is advised.Content Highlights

Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31);
China's stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term... (4:57);
There are a number of ways to express the 'long commodities' trade. ETFs may be the simplest... (8:59)
The bullish case for uranium (10:37);
Don't fade the AI story (14:20);
The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04);
Background on the guest (22:30);
Listener question: What's the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10);
Election discussion (28:17).

More Information on the Guest

Website: TgMacro.com;
Twitter/X: @TgMacro;
Substack: @TgMacro.

Finding Contrarian Investors Among US Presidents Past and Present Sep 25, 2024

Hear podcast episodes without ads and before regular listeners by subscribing to our premium offering.

Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year's presidential and vice presidential candidates.

Content Highlights

The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24);
Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included... (6:37);
Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04);
Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals -- and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51);
Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market... (21:11);
What we know about the investments of this year's candidates for president and vice president (25:52);
Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14);
Presidents probably don't need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18)

More Information on the Guest

Website: AllThePresidentsMoney.com;
X: @Megan_E_Gorman.

Fed's Next Move, Trump 2.0, Opportunities in AI, Argentina: James Fishback Sep 10, 2024

James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed's shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues.

This podcast was recorded on Sept. 4 and was being made available to premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available here. NB: The guest is outspoken on certain political beliefs discussed here. These views are not necessarily shared by the host or the Contrarian Investor Podcast more generally. Content Highlights

The Federal Reserve is expect to cut 200 basis points off of interest rates when all is said and done. The reality should fall well short of that measure... (1:37);
The US is economy growing in aggregate. Pain points are felt among lower socio-economic classes (4:44);
The major change will not come from a major shift in monetary policy but what happens fiscally, with the November election (9:16);
How to trade a Republican sweep? There's an acronym: T-R-U-M-P (10:54);
Many companies have taken advantage of cheap labor supplied by illegal immigration. Their stocks will suffer once this is rolled back... (15:31);
AI is real. Productivity gains will be massive (17:44);
Crypto discussion. The best opportunity for bulls may to bet on lower volatility for Bitcoin... (22:47);
Background on the guest (28:33);
Azoria's first ETF will be called the Meritocracy Fund. The strategy (33:38);
Another opportunity: Argentina (43:18)

More Information on the Guest

Website: AzoriaPartners.com;
Substack: HeadofMacro.com;
X: @j_fishback;
LinkedIn: Azoria-Partners

Economic Data Pointing in Right Direction, for Now: Colin White, Verecan Capital Aug 21, 2024

Colin White of Verecan Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy and why he considers the likelihood of a 'soft landing' to have increased...

This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024 and made available for premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is avalailable on our Substack page.. Content Highlights

Economic indicators are pointing to increased chances of a 'soft landing'... (1:10);
The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) have 'bullets in their gun' in the form of interest rate cuts, should the need arise. Another reason for confidence (3:27);
Employment numbers are the most important datapoint to watch right now (6:41);
The Age of Finfluencers and dangers it has wrought (14:32);
Central banks have a responsibility to act in the best interests of the general public. If they stray from that responsibility, the structure that governs central banks can change (19:29);
Background on the guest (23:31);
No, real estate is not always a good investment (34:11);
AI discussion (37:41).

More on the Guest

Website: HXResearch.net;
Twitter/X: @EnriqueAbeyta.

Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History: Daniel Peris Mar 27, 2024

This podcast was released for premium subscribers on March 20, 2024. For more information on premium subscriptions please visit our Substack.

Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows.

Note: The host's mic was a little 'stuffy' for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear!

Content Highlights

Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55);
No, this isn't about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22);
Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder... (18:30)
Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37);
Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33);
What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40).

More on the Guest

Lessons From Financial History: Mark Higgins Mar 13, 2024

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 1, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers on March 6. For more information on premium memberships visit our Substack.

Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today's market environment.

Content Highlights

What period from the past compares closest to the one we're living through now? It's a combination of several... (1:56);
The last time the US -- and Federal Reserve -- battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today's age... (4:36);
The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04);
Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51);
Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost -- and risks (15:40);
Decentralized currencies aren't new and in fact once characterized the US dollar -- and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn't end well... (18:06);
Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05);
Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator... (27:17);
The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36);
The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25).

More From the Guest

Website: EnlightenedInvestor.com;
Order the book on Amazon.com;
LinkedIn: @MarkHiggins.

Time to Get Defensive, Avoid 'Magnificent 7' Tech Stocks: Ted Oakley, Oxbow Advisors Feb 21, 2024

This podcast was recorded on Feb. 15, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads, natch). For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack or Supercast.

Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one's portfolio.

Content Highlights

The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47);
"There are things that people don't see" (or at least don't publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08);
One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59);
Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head... (6:05);
Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22);
Oxbow has been invested in 'Magnificent 7' stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently... (10:48);
Background on the guest (23:07);
What previous period in investment history is today's market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer... (29:32).

More on the Guest

Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com;
Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.

Markets Face Headwinds in First Half of 2024: Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics Jan 11, 2024

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it's very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024.

Content Highlights

Knapp's outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period... (3:29);
Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00);
The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57);
How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March... (11:36);
Why bonds haven't continued to rally this year (16:58);
The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06);
Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change... (28:35);
Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions... (36:40);
How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31)

More About the Guest

Website and newsletter: IronsidesMacro.substack.com;
Twitter: @BarryKnapp.

Risks Point to Downside in 2024: Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin Dec 27, 2023

This podcast episode was recorded Dec. 20, 2023 and made available exclusively -- without ads or announcements -- for premium subscribers that same day. This is just one of the benefits of becoming a premium subscriber. The others are detailed on our Supercast or Substack pages. Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, re-joins the podcast to discuss his views going into 2024 and the likelihood there won't be a 'soft landing' for the economy next year. Content Highlights

Consensus estimates for 2024 are going to be wrong, just like they were for this year and every year before it (2:12);
Coming in to this year the banking sector was a concern, though as it turned out for the wrong reasons (4:39);
The catalyst for the reversal this fall and the new, dovish Fed (7:26);
The contrarian call is that they're won't be a soft landing -- or a stock market crash (11:44);
Possible explanation for the 'Fed pivot' (16:48);
How the guest is allocating assets going into 2024 (23:56);
Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussion (29:02).

More on the Guest

Website: DailyDirtNap.com;
Twitter: @DailyDirtNap;
Facebook: JaredDillianAuthor;
Pre-order his book on Amazon.

Mention this podcast for a generous discount on the Daily Dirt Nap!

Opportunities in Emerging, Frontier Markets: Kevin T. Carter, EMQQ Global Nov 21, 2023

This podcast episode was recorded on Nov. 15, 2023 and released to premium subscribers the following day --without ads. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast.

Kevin T. Carter, founder and chief investment officer of EMQQ Global, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging and frontier market stocks. His first lesson: don't bother with the indexes. The real opportunities are to be found in individual stocks.

Content Highlights

The first issue with emerging market investing is the index. These do not accurately reflect the real opportunities (1:19);
Individual stocks, especially of technology companies, have performed far better than the underlying index (6:25);
There are three mega-trends that point to emerging markets growth over the long term (8:03);
South America's E-commerce giant is not in any EM index. Neither is Brazilian digital bank Nu Holdings (15:14);
A broad discussion of China, where things are not always as they appear in the western media... (19:22);
Right now all eyes are on India. The story there is still in the early innings, but unfortunately options are limited for investors limited to US exchanges... (42:13);
Other markets in South Asia also offer compelling opportunities. Especially Bangladesh (48:58).

More Information on the Guest

LinkedIn: TheKevinTCarter;
Website: EMQQGlobal.com.

Opportunities in Credit Markets with Tom Carney, Weitz Investments Oct 31, 2023

This episode was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 26 without ads or announcements. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack or Supercast.

Tom Carney, co-head of fixed-income at Weitz Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his (perhaps surprisingly) optimistic view of bond and credit markets.

Content Highlights

Carney's views on the bond market. Interest rates have created a much-improved, encouraging environment for investors (1:33);
Opportunities include the non-corporate bond market, specifically the asset-backed securities market (5:38);
The guest has a unique view into consumer lending. There are defaults, but not more than usual (10:37);
Discussion of the mortgage-backed securities market. There too, defaults are not particularly prevalent (13:05);
How big of a concern is the Fed? (24:25);
Background on the guest (29:57);
What about his concerns facing markets at present? (38:09).

For more information on the guest, visit the website WeitzInvestments.com.

Stocks, Bonds to Rally in Q4: David Hunter Oct 16, 2023

A short actionable highlights reel from this podcast was released to premium subscribers last Thursday, Oct. 12 -- the same day it was recorded. The full episode and transcript were made available to premium subscribers the following day. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, Fed, stocks, and bonds.

Not investment advice.

Content Highlights

Views on the bond market (1:31);
The Federal Reserve will likely pause again at its next meeting, on Nov. 1 (6:41);
Views on stocks (11:30);
Once consensus emerges that the Fed is 'done' it will remove a major wall of worry and headwind the magnitude of which few are anticipating... (16:14);
Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Industrials, 10-year yields... (21:21);
How the 'bust' scenario will play out (27:02),

To contact David Hunter and find out about subscribing to his newsletter, you need to send him a direct message on Twitter. His handle is @DaveHContrarian. The host will not forward your messages.

Contrarian Investing Primer With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors Sep 20, 2023

This episode was released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- on Sept. 18. Find out about premium subscriptions here.

Phil Pecsok, founder of Anacapa Advisors, joins the podcast to supply a primer on contrarian investing: What it is, what catalysts to look for, and some valuable lessons from his 30-year career on Wall Street.

Content Highlights

The guest provides his views of contrarian investing and how he uses it (1:27);
Examples of blaring contrarian signals from past cycles (9:00);
The Fed is likely to stay hawkish (13:14);
The 'Rule of 3' in contrarian investing as illustrated in a story from early in the guest's career (16:37);
His views on cryptos (24:13);
Background on the guest (30:01);
Sports betting is an efficient way to lose money, unless you're running the book. But sometimes there are sometimes contrarian opportunities (37:46);
What keeps the guest up at night? Nothing in particular, though stocks are probably overbought even after the recent sell-off (45:17).

For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com.

Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets: Ayesha Tariq Sep 04, 2023

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a 'highlight' clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode -- without ads or interruptions -- the following day, on Aug. 30. To find out more about premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.

Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.

Content Highlights

The 'soft landing' scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that's wrong (1:32);
Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
New segment: Listener questions. Whoever's questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).

For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X. Not investment advice.

Diamonds as an Asset Class: Concepts, Contrarian, Catalysts, With Cormac Kinney Aug 30, 2023

This podcast was released to premium subscribers on Aug. 24. Become a premium subscriber on Substack or Supercast.

Cormac Kinney, founder and CEO of Diamond Standard, joins the podcast to discuss the concept of diamonds as an asset class: why they haven't become an investable commodity like other precious metals, how that may be changing, and what investors can expect in terms of correlation to other assets and alpha.

Content Highlights

Why haven't diamonds become an investable asset class like precious metals or other commodities? (1:11);
Some of the economics behind diamond production and why supply is dropping dramatically (4:45);
How Diamond Standard is turning diamonds into a fungible commodity (this is where the bars in the cover photo comes in) (7:55);
What are diamonds used for practically, other than jewelry? (11:06);
Diamonds' correlation to other asset classes over time (15:33);
Diamond futures are coming. That will introduce much-needed liquidity (21:45);
Background on the guest (29:30);

More About the Guest

Website: DiamondStandard.co;
Twitter: @DiamondStandard and @CormacKinney;
LinkedIn: DiamondStandard;
Instagram: @DiamondStandard.co;
FaceBook: DiamondStandardCo.

Some Disparate 'Best Ideas' for the Rest of 2023: Brooker Belcourt Aug 23, 2023

This episode was recorded on Aug. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber here.

Brooker Belcourt, founder of Covey.io, rejoins the podcast to discuss the three-pronged consensus that the investment platform's best analysts are picking up right now and the 20 names that have emerged...

(Not investment advice).

Content Highlights

What are the best Covey analysts picking up right now? (1:37)
The platform's 20 best positions are split into four buckets: growth winners like Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), healthcare (three names including biopharma), 'high-quality' names like Autozone (AZO) and Disney (DIS), and volatility expressed through the levered ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) (4:55);
What to make of the long volatility bet? (9:40);
Equally interesting is the type of exposure that is absent from the best 20: no crypto, no retail stocks, nothing international... (16:04);

More About the Guest

Website: Covey.io;
Twitter: @CoveyInvest;
LinkedIn: CoveyInvest.

The Economy's Soft-Landing Will Be Short-Lived: Peter Kraus, Aperture Investors Aug 10, 2023

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.

Peter Kraus, founder and CEO of Aperture Investors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, why he expects the 'soft landing' to occur, but why it will quickly give way to renewed concerns.

Content Highlights

An economic soft landing is likely, but will be transitional (1:38);
The Fed is unlikely to 'break more stuff' as this spring's banking crisis was a short-term liquidity crisis that has since been resolved. But refinancing will be a problem (4:12);
Inflation will be more persistent and 'sticky' than markets are pricing in right now. This doesn't leave bonds in a very good position (7:20);
When it comes to stocks, expect volatility until late autumn at which point higher interest rates will start to bite (16:17);
The consumer, and consumer stocks, will lead the rebound starting as early as December (19:33);
Background on the guest (26:06);
China's driver of commodity prices may be over (35:42).

More on the Guest

Website: PeterAtwater.com;
Twitter: @Peter_Atwater;
Ways to order the book here.

Not investment advice.

Contrarian Wealth-Generation, With Stephanie Walter Jul 20, 2023

Premium subcribers received this (and every) episode early and without ads.

Stephanie Walter of Erbe Wealth joins the podcast to discuss some of the trade secrets of ultra-wealthy investors. Listeners may be shocked to hear about their very small allocation to public equities...

Content Highlights

A unique way to generate tax-free income through so-called premium financing insurance (1:51);
The security works as a life insurance policy with a premium paid by a bank (5:45);
These securities are illiquid, with a lock-up of 10 to 15 years, but the coupon pays double-digit percent -- tax free (7:34);
Cap rates are starting to rise, creating opportunities in commercial real estate. One example is retail in Wyoming (14:23);
Office space is a different animal however. Too much risk, not enough reward (18:50);
Background on the guest (22:27);
Some of the ways ultra-wealthy allocate funds (very little to public equities), and the mindsets behind them (26:06);
What about cryptos? (33:48);
There are reasons to be concerned about the economy. Taxes could be a wild card here. Also interest rates (34:48).

More Information on the Guest

Website: ErbeWealth.com;
LinkedIn: Erbe-Wealth.

Trend-Following Strategy Primer and Current Opportunities, With Anthony Todd, Aspect Capital Jul 13, 2023

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 12 without ads or announcements. There are numerous other benefits for the premium service, which are spelled out on our Substack.

Anthony Todd, the founder of Aspect Capital, joins the podcast to discuss the trend-following investment strategy he helped pioneer almost 50 years ago including where it might be particularly applicable in today’s markets.

Content Highlights

What is trend-following? Quick primer (1:06);
What makes a trend? (5:23);
What markets does Aspect Capital trade? (7:52);
Current opportunities (9:11):
- Fixed-income (10:09);
- Agricultural commodities (10:58);
Price action is paramount in the trend-following model, and it can lead to closing or reversing certain trades. For example, a bond rally... (14:15);
Wait, so is trend-following anti-contrarian? (16:11);
Background on the guest (21:24);
His thoughts on artificial intelligence, or AI... (28:20);
...and on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies (31:55).

For More Information:

Website: AspectCapital.com;
LinkedIn: Aspect-Capital.

Not investment advice.

Regional Bank Credit Risk, AI Tech Hype, Trouble in Commercial Real Estate: Chris Bemis, X-Cubed Capital Jun 20, 2023

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on June 15 without ads or announcements. There are numerous other benefits to premium subscriptions, which are spelled out on our Substack.

Chris Bemis, co-founder of X-Cubed Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his views on regional bank credit risk, the nascent bubble in AI tech stocks (and AI more generally), problems in commercial real estate, and how he applies his mathematics background to investing.

Content Highlights

Last September, X-Cubed's credit risk signals flashed red over regional banks, causing the firm to put on some trades to profit. That opportunity has now run its course and the other side may hold more interest... (1:21);
AI tech stocks: It's not 1999 but more like 1995 with the beginning of the seeds of a bubble. The firm is more bullish on mid-cap stocks in general (12:11);
Background on the guest (15:40);
The differences between a multi-manager approach to investing and multi-strategy and why the latter has advantages right now (19:46);
The bearish argument on office space and why he's bullish homeowners (26:20);
Making use of mobile phone data and other 'alternative' data sources (30:00);
AI, artificial intelligence, and why it falls short in many investment approaches (33:18);
Some advice for math students from a mathematics academic (38:37).

More Information on the Guest

Website: x3cmllc.com

Inflation Will Persist Above the Fed's Comfort Level: Naomi Fink Jun 07, 2023

This episode was made available to premium subscribers on June 1 without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.

Naomi Fink, founder and CEO at Europacifica Consulting in Los Angeles, joins the podcast to discuss her view that inflation will prove more elevated and persistent than market participants are anticipating -- and how and where this impact will be felt.

Content Highlights

Inflation caught investors by surprise and investors could be forgiven for thinking inflation will drop again. But inflation will more likely normalize around a higher rate (3:15);
There are multiple reasons for this: reversal of globalization, limits to technological advancements, supply shocks, geopolitical unrest, and labor supply shortages, to name a few (4:09);
Where does this leave Fed policy? (6:03);
Retailers have been reporting a consumer pullback on big ticket purchases: business cycle or inflation? (13:52);
Companies will need to innovate to deal with more persistent inflation and a skills shortage. Those that don't will be left behind (16:34);
AI is not a cure-all and may in fact be mostly hype (18:23);
Background on the guest (24:53);
Japan and Japan stocks (28:36);
Social security cost of living adjustments are not keeping up with inflation. The impact (33:59);
What options do retirees have to maintain their purchasing power on fixed income? (38:17);
Financial literacy is vital but may be a double-edged sword... (46:28).

More on the Guest

Twitter: @f_wintersberger;
Substack: The Weekly Wintersberger.

Bullish on Oil, Pipeline Stocks, Long-Term Bullish on Cannabis: Todd Sullivan Oct 05, 2022

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey -- Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.

Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com rejoins the podcast to discuss oil markets and the investment case for cannabis.

Sullivan's call for $100 oil last year turned out to be prescient. Oil prices have retreated from their peak, but that will be short-lived, he says...

(This episode was recorded Sept. 22, before the recent rebound in oil prices. Premium subscribers get an early actionable highlight clip of the podcast along with earlier release of the full episode -- and a host of other benefits. More on our Substack or Supercast.)

Content Highlights

Fears of 'demand destruction' have led to the decline in oil prices, but risks are tilted toward prices moving higher again. Production is not coming back (3:48);
How much of a concern is a slowing Chinese economy when it comes to oil prices? (10:14);
What about stocks? Sullivan continues to like pipeline companies... (16:00);
The investment case for cannabis: Overview (27:03);
The only thing that will unleash capital on the cannabis industry is decriminalization (31:46);
What to look for if you are looking to buy and hold cannabis stocks and two of the guest's favorites (34:30).

More About Todd Sullivan

Jordi Visser is Optimistic About Inflation, Stocks, Cryptos -- And More Sep 28, 2022

Premium subscribers received an eight-minute clip containing the most actionable highlights from this episode on Sept. 26. This is just one of many benefits of premium membership. For more visit our Substack or Supercast.

Jordi Visser, president and chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss his reasons for optimism during this trying time for global financial markets.

Content Highlights

The environment is constructive for risk assets (2:26);
Focus has moved from inflation. Investors are too negative (3:50);
The Fed is raising interest rates. Inflation is coming down -- a lot faster than people think (4:41);
What sectors and why? (9:53);
No, you don't need unemployment to increase for inflation to come down (13:22);
The bullish case for biotech (15:12);
The blockchain will have profound impact on labor markets (19:42);
Background on the guest (25:13);
Clean energy and how that fits in (29:14);
Oil should move higher, but watch out for global trade (36:47);
Web 3.0 and cryptocurrencies: here too there are reasons to be bullish (39:48);
Beta has started to outperform profitability. A final reason to be optimistic (51:45).

More About Jodi Visser

Website: GWeiss.com;
Twitter: @JVisser_Weiss;
Video on inflation after the CPI print;
Weekly podcast: In Search of Green Marbles.

Stagflation Is Coming Soon, Staying Awhile: Axel Merk Sep 21, 2022

This podcast episode was recorded on Sept. 16, with a short highlight clip containing the most actionable items released to premium subscribers that same day. The full episode was released to premium subscribers without ads or interruptions a day after recording.

Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his views on stagflation, the Federal Reserve, U.S. dollar, and why the bottom is not yet in for stocks.

Content Highlights

Printing money does not fix supply issues. Next stop: Stagflation (2:59);
The current environment simply is not conducive to taking risks (11:15);
There's too much groupthink at the Fed and it's time for Jerome Powell to step down (13:21);
The bottom for stocks is not in yet. The Fed needs to pivot first. What to watch for there (15:26);
Background on the guest (24:43);
The outlook for gold (31:20);
How high might the Fed go with interest rates? (34:09).

More Information on Axel Merk

Website: MerkInvestments.com;
Twitter: @AxelMerk;
Merk Stagflation ETF and other funds: MerkFunds.com;

Not intended as investment advice.

Inflation Will Ease, Fed Hikes Will Not: Richard Excell Sep 14, 2022

This podcast episode was recorded on Sept. 12, with a short highlight clip containing the most actionable items released to premium subscribers that same day. The full episode was released to premium subscribers without ads or interruptions a day after recording.

To accommodate this new format, and our new production schedule featuring weekly podcasts, subscription prices are scheduled to increase. However, the old rate can be locked in for a limited time through this link (also mentioned in the intro).

Richard Excell, former prop trader and portfolio manager and currently a professor of finance at Gies College of Business, joined the podcast to discuss his outlook on the economy, inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and more.

Content Highlights

The outlook on inflation: 5% by December, but don't expect the Fed to ease off of rate hikes (7:14);
Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? It has succeeded just three of the last 14 times it hiked rates... (9:34);
We may not see a housing price decline on a national basis anytime soon (14:05);
Expect a 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Sept. 20 -- and again at the subsequent meeting in November, even though the economy should not start to brake until next year (16:11);
Background on the guest (22:02);
Views on asset allocation: more constructive for bonds than equities at present (27:03);
A recession will happen. The good news: it may be mild... (32:30);
How much of a concern are global issues in Europe and China? (35:40).

More Information on the Guest

Website: GiesBusiness.Illinois.edu;
Substack: Stay Vigilant;
CommonStock: Stay Vigilant;
Twitter: @ExcellRichard,

Convertible Bonds Offer Protection Against Stagflation, Other Ills Facing Markets: Daniel Partlow (Szn 4, Ep23) Sep 06, 2022

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Sept. 1, 2022 without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month.

Daniel Partlow, chief risk officer at Advent Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss convertible bonds. Partlow is a specialist in these securities, having written a book on the subject titled 'Convertible Securities: A Complete Guide to Investment and Corporate Financing Strategies.'

Content Highlights

First, the basics: What are convertible bonds and how do they work? The asset class has actually been around for more than three centuries... (3:29);
Some of the characteristics of converts include a maturity of about four to five years but with low interest rate sensitivity of much shorter duration bonds (6:42);
A typical balanced convert will provide downside protection (via the bond floor) and upside potential through the equity participation (9:18);
Converts have done well in inflationary environments, with less volatility than stocks (11:44);
The default rate for converts is a fraction of high yield and leveraged loans (20:38);
Background on the guest (24:59);
The specter of stagflation and how converts can protect against that (27:50);
Where might there be particular opportunities in the converts market right now? (33:07);
Examples of individual securities that may be of interest (37:52).

More Background on the Guest

Website and link to the book mentioned in the introduction.

Additional Information

The following slides were supplied by Advent Capitaol Management.

Beating The Market is Hard. Optimizing Investments is Easy: Chris Hutchins (Szn4, Ep 22) Aug 24, 2022

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers two days ago without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month.

Chris Hutchins joins the podcast to discuss his strategy for asset allocation, which leans heavily on passive investing and optimizing earnings power rather than picking stocks. In this (admittedly) unorthodox episode he discusses some of his methods.

Content Highlights

You probably can't beat the market. Instead of trying to optimize the portfolio, why not optimize how quickly money can be put to work? Or maximize income from employment (5:55);
Beating the market may be extremely difficult (if not impossible). but educating oneself is still invaluable along several lines that are discussed (8:07);
How does Hutchins' asset allocation break down exactly? (10:45);
The guest is also a venture capitalist. What areas of technology is he particularly excited about right now? (12:35);
What about the VC model itself? (21:30);
Background on the guest (30:00);
Not investing is as big a mistake as investing incorrectly. Some of the options (35:32);
How important is liquidity? (38:44);
What has the guest most worried right now? (42:06).

More Information on the Guest

Twitter: @Hutchins;
Website: WealthFront.com;
Podcast website: AllTheHacks.com (includes links to podcast),

Hugh Hendry, OG Contrarian Aug 09, 2022

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 3 and released to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month.

Hugh Hendry is a man who needs no introduction to contrarians. Over the course of this 90-minute conversation, he provided many views on markets, the economy, the Federal Reserve, China, and a lot more. Of particular interest to investors are his bullish views on commodities, oil producers, and luxury goods makers...

Content Highlights

Hendry's most contrarian opinion right off the bat: The Fed is not responsible for the asset price bubble (2:40);
"We find ourselves in the fourth depression of the last 200 years" after "les miserables" period of 1830 to ~1855, 1870 to the late 1890s, and the 1930s (8:11);
"I don't think we have inflation." Sales of non-discretionary items are not increasing (13:53);
Very few people understand money and money creation. What are they missing? (28:56);
What's behind the stock market rally this summer? It may be commodities, at least in part... (39:49);
Markets are 'bucking broncos.' Volatility can be a major distraction and nothing happens in a straight line. But commodity producers and uranium should be in good shape over the long term (46:55);
Background on the guest. As an 'OG contrarian' Hendry joins an exclusive list (54:58);
A little insight into Hendry's current life and psychology (1:10:40);
Betting on the Chinese yuan weakening (1:14:37);
The odds of the 10-year treasury making new lows (1:22:44);
China invading Taiwan? Hendry sets the odds at 20% and says China will never have a stronger bargaining positioning vis-a-vis the U.S (1:24:16).

More Information on the Guest

Twitter: @Hendry_Hugh;
Substack: HughHendry;
Instagram: HughHendryOfficial;
YouTube: HughHendryOfficial;
The Acid Capitalist.

The Bullish Case for Rare Earths: Louis O'Connor Aug 01, 2022

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 26. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Free trials are available.

Louis O'Connor, CEO of Strategic Metals Invest, joins the podcast to make the case for rare earth metals. These commodities, hitherto unavailable to retail investors, are now accessible and entering the mainstream...

Content Highlights

Rare earth metals (sometimes called rare earth elements) are intrinsic to daily life. They are part of modern technology as diverse as electric cars, military applications, solar applications, nuclear reactors, and more (3:01);
China produces more than 80% of the world's rare earths and refines metals even mined in the U.S. (5:39);
Okay, so what are these rare metals exactly? There are 17 in all, though not all are exactly rare, or vital... (8:12);
Rare earths have outperformed almost all major asset classes the last five years (14:22);
The supply picture for rare earths is complicated, while demand is quite inelastic, depending on a diverse set of buyers... (18:58);
Rare earths are entering the mainstream and production is increasing in the U.S., where it is more expensive (23:01);
There is a specific rare earth where the investment opportunity is particularly compelling at present (31:58);
Tellurium, on the other hand, is one that is not deemed particularly advantageous at the moment (35:50).

About the Guest

Oil Prices Will Rise to $200/Barrel: Salem Abraham Jul 18, 2022

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 12. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Free trials are available.

Salem Abraham of Abraham Trading Co. joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook for oil, predicated on supply issues and under-investment.

Content Highlights

The shift to renewable energy is real, even in the Texas panhandle. But the transition is still in the very early stages. Oil and gas are still needed -- so are investments in infrastructure (4:13);
Worldwide drilling has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels. This will lead to $200/barrel oil and $10 gasoline prices (7:07);
"I think we end up with stagflation," but even that will not solve the supply issues (8:50);
Natural gas "is still a great investment" (14:14);
The benefits of green hydrogen (16:31);
There are more pipelines than popularly believed in the U.S. and they are actually more precarious than transmission lines (19:52);
Background on the guest (29:36);
Liquid alternatives and the need for better diversification (31:37);
The Federal Reserve has to regain credibility after the 'transitory' talk. The Fed will blink, eventually... (36:02);
Unrelated: Notre Dame will not join the Big 10 for football, says the alumnus (39:49).

More Information on the Guest

Twitter: @SalemAbraham;
Website: AbrahamTrading.com.

Assessing the Precarious State of Markets With Marc Chandler Jul 07, 2022

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers ton July 5 -- the same day it was recorded. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $10/month. Free trials are available.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannock Burn Global FX, joins the podcast to discuss the precarious state of markets and what he is expecting from upcoming releases of key economic data. He also provides a pair of investment ideas for these times, with the understanding that nothing here is to be taken as investment advice.

Content Highlights

The coming week brings a number of crucial economic data around employment and inflation. What to expect (2:50);
"I don't think we're in a recession yet. But I think it's going to be hard to avoid one." Cracks are appearing and these warrant attention (3:51);
Weekly jobless claims (up Thursday) can be a leading indicator of recessions (5:30);
Non-farm payrolls are up on Friday. What to expect (11:34);
Core inflation is actually receding from highs, but the Fed can't (and more importantly won't) declare victory over inflation quite yet (14:42);
Recent days have seen a shift in market sentiment, to where a rate cut is starting to be priced in (17:43);
What is an investor to do here? The guest has two ideas, at opposite ends of the risk spectrum (25:23);

More on the Guest

Website: MarcToMarket.com;
Twitter: @MarcMakingSense.

Fed Will Reverse Course on Rate Hikes, And Soon: Deer Point Macro Jun 23, 2022

This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com — claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber.

Deer Point Macro joins the podcast to discuss his view that the U.S. Federal Reserve will only hike interest rates once more before easing.

Content Highlights

The Fed is not some magical organization that can control all parts of monetary economics (2:50);
The Fed can create demand for credit, but banks have to provide supply. And banks are pushing back (5:03);
What to make of the Fed's rate hikes this year? How has that affected bank portfolios? (9:37);
The eurodollar market plays a significant role in Fed policy and its implications. An explanation (13:24);
The Fed stands to raise once more, at its next meeting in July, before having to cut rates in September (16:21);
Inflation is stubbornly persistent. Doesn't this force the Fed to raise rates? (19:57);
Background on the guest (30:14);
Markets don't really react to ADP employment data, but for economic detective work it can be vitally important (31:48);
How this all translates to asset prices: good for bonds but commercial banks are maybe not as safe as some would think. But regional banks may be a better bet (35:11);
What about cryptocurrencies? (36:34);
Quick discourse on the so-called 'Fisher effect' that posits that inflation rises as Fed funds increase -- over the long term (39:14).

More on the Guest

Substack: DeerPointMacro.substack.com;
Twitter: @DeerPointMacro;
CommonStock: DeerPointMacro.

Reasons for Optimism Amid 'Peak Pain': Kevin Rendino Jun 09, 2022

This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com -- claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber.

Kevin Rendino of 180 Degree Capital joins the podcast to discuss reasons for optimism (yes, optimism) in markets and why we may have already reached "peak pain."

Content Highlights

Valuations for most of the market are already discounting bad news across the board. Cash balances are at peak levels seen at the start of the pandemic, in 2008, and 2001 (2:44);
What segments of the market are particularly interesting right now? Look to semiconductors for starters (4:54);
How big of a concern is Fed policy? (7:20);
Media companies will benefit as the economy resumes its growth and advertising budgets revamp. There are indications this cycle is already turning (13:49);
What is 180 Capital's investing style and how does it work? (16:25);
Background on the guest (25:17);
The guest meets with company management often. What are some 'red flags' and 'green flags' he looks for? (31:38);
The 'great resignation' and which companies may be a great 'pedigree' for future executives (38:18);
Some parting guidance and why today's market feels more like 1990 than 2008 (43:17).

More Information on the Guest

Website: 180DegreeCapital.com;
Twitter: @180DegreeCap;
"Reasons for Hope" article;

Stocks Mentioned on this Podcast

180 Degree Capital (TURN) -- the guest's publicly-traded fund;
Lantronix (LTRX);
Quantum (QMCO);
Arena Group (AREN);
Potbelly (PBPB).

Not intended as investment advice.

Bearish Indicators Abound, With Downside Risks for Stocks: Ayesha Tariq May 31, 2022

This episode was recorded on May 26, 2022 and released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- that same day. There are a host of other benefits to becoming a premium subscribers, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast released each market day morning by 0700 ET. To become a premium subscriber, sign up here or through our substack.

Ayesha Tariq of Keystone Consulting joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss her bearish views on the global economy and on stock markets, what investment options she prefers right now, and why work-from-home will not persist (or at least not at current levels).

Content Highlights

The idea of a 'Fed pivot' away from higher rates is baseless. The Fed has no choice but to raise rates (3:01);
What about inflation having peaked? Won't that remove some pressure from the Fed? (8:35);
Unemployment is due to rise, with companies soon having no choice but to lay off workers -- but this won't stop the Fed either (11:28);
Markets had a good week. Did we have the bottom already? (13:57);
What about commodities? A potential bright spot due to structural issues? (15:32);
Background on the guest (21:06);
What are some of the best options for investors in light of all this? (23:19);
Real estate investment trusts are one good option, especially commercial real estate. Work-from-home was a phase that will be scaled back soon (26:25);

More Information on the Guest

Website: AyeshaTariq.Substack.com;
Twitter: @AyeshaTariq;
CommonStock: AyeshaTariq.

Not intended as investment advice.

Retail Analysts Are Smarter, Brooker Belcourt Has Proof May 16, 2022

This podcast episode was recorded on May 11, 2022 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads or announcements, either!) To become a premium subscriber, go here or visit our Substack.

Brooker Belcourt, CEO of Covey, joins the podcast to discuss his analyst platform and its ‘alpha algorithm’ that has been able to produce outperformance through its stock and ETF picks and crypto calls.

Content Highlights

Covey’s contrarian thesis: Retail analysts are every bit as good, if not better, than institutional analysts (4:10);
The idea of a platform to aggregate analyst opinion is not new. But very recent history has proven Covey correct: its analysts predicted the drop in cryptocurrencies and rise in value stocks over that have transpired over the last week (5:53);
The ‘alpha algorithm’ and how that works (6:58);
What is Covey’s algorithm picking up right now? (11:03);
Some highlights: Long commodities, fertilizer stocks like Mosaic (MOS), financials, energy stocks, and a few beaten-up tech names like Facebook/Meta (FB) and Alibaba (BABA). Short cryptos has been taken off (14:46);
Isn't Covey just chasing past performance hoping for future results? (17:20)
Great investors appear to have staying power, regardless of environment (23:27);
Background on the guest and how he came to start Covey (28:11);
Deeper discussion on how Covey's top analysts are positioning their portfolios right now (36:39);

For More Information

Website: Covey.io;
Twitter: @Covey_io;

This Correction Is Not A Buy Signal: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research May 02, 2022

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers — without ads or announcements — on April 28, 2022. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, go here or visit our Substack.

Mike Singleton of Invictus Research joins the podcast to discuss why the current sell-off is not a buying opportunity for stocks.

Content Highlights

Many contrarians currently believe sentiment is too bearish, meaning the market is due for a run for strong performance. Their conclusion is likely wrong (3:28);
Regardless of what investors say in surveys, the key question is whether they have money on the line -- and how much (5:50);
Right now retail exposure to stocks is at all-time-highs, while institutional investors have cash at low levels (7:27);
What about the economic fundamentals, which are mostly in good shape? (10:09);
The Fed actually has credibility when it comes to tightening interest rates -- and is not just 'jawboning' the market (12:58);
This is partly because the Fed does a lot more communicating than it has in the past (16:40);
Inflation has likely peaked and will start to slow, though not by enough to let the Fed ease rates (24:02);
Background on the guest and 'origin story' for Invictus Research (26:54);
What part of the business cycle are we in now? (33:23);
What does that mean for asset classes? (35:34);
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) "has been a terrific place to look for shorts -- quick discussion of Cathie Wood and her predicament" (38:03);
Bonds will become an opportunity when the Fed 'breaks something' and there are indications that may be happening now (40:40);

More Information on the Guest:

Twitter: @InvictusMacro;
Website: Invictus-Research.com.

No Recession Imminent, Watch for New Highs in (Certain) Stocks: Edward Olanow Apr 25, 2022

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- on April 19, 2022. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, go here or visit our Substack.

Edward Olanow, portfolio manager and director of investment solutions at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to supply a surprisingly bullish outlook on the economy and on certain segments of the stock market.

Content Highlights

Reasons for optimism: Given the Fed and external shocks, GDP remains high and there is still a backlog of orders and millions of unfilled jobs (3:15);
The Fed's talk about 0.75% interest rate hikes is "just jawboning" (5:33);
The era of 'buy & hold' is over; investors need to be more nimble (8:25);
The house view at Weiss is that Nasdaq stocks will have a tougher time than other segments of the market (10:40);
The war in Ukraine: in all likelihood risks are localized at present, judging by gold and energy prices (14:25);
Background on the guest (18:40);
What are dispersion trades and how do they work? (20:34);
Why this may be a good time for this strategy -- and a 'turning point' for alternatives managers in general (26:27);
Where all this leaves fixed income and the bond market: Fixed-income is less forward-looking than people think... (29:55);
What Olanow and Weiss monitor for inflation (32:31);

For More Information:

LinkedIn;
Twitter: @WeissMultiStrat.

The Coming Credit Crunch and Death of Unicorns: Leo Schmidt Apr 18, 2022

This podcast episode was made available to premium subscribers without ads or announcements on Monday, April 11, 2022. Don't be jealous of premium subscribers -- become one by signing up here. Free trials are available.

Leo Schmidt of River Eddy Capital Management rejoins the podcast to discuss the coming credit crunch, its impact on stock market sectors, and where to invest to protect one's portfolio.

Content Highlights

So-called "unicorn" companies, or the darlings of the VC crowd, and others that cannot generate cashflow, will face a tough reckoning (3:17);
Undermining this is "a complete change of psychology" in terms of velocity of money (6:27);
What if the Fed reverses course? It's not so simple (8:52);
Oil is a short: "Oil is the ultimate liquid commodity" but there is a place for pipeline stocks... (11:38);
What stocks can thrive in this type of environment? Look first to medical company spin-offs (19:13);
Another area to look: Business development companies, or BDCs. This is a risky part of the market but there is at least one BDC making first-lien loans, which are the safest part of the capital structure... (26:23);
Quick epilogue on China's latest Covid lockdown. There are ways to play the move away from supply chain issues that result (35:58);

The Fallacy of Renewable Energy: Leigh Goehring Apr 06, 2022

This podcast episode was recorded on April 4, 2022, and released to premium subscribers –without ads or announcements — that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our substack or supercast to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing each market day morning.

Leigh Goehring, managing partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins the podcast to discuss his view that most renewable energies are ineffective at reducing carbon output and pointless as investments.

Content Highlights

The consensus opinion is that renewable energy will solve many of the problems of CO2 production and energy needs. This is false (3:12);
The "terrible energy efficiency" associated with renewables will make the world poorer (5:00);
What is the problem with solar and wind and why are they so inefficient? (7:20);
It's no coincidence that the energy crisis started in Germany, which is now forced to import coal (12:20);
Vaclav Smil and the premise that there has never been a new technology with inferior energy efficiency that displaced the old technology (13:59);
The ulterior motives behind China's green energy push (18:33);
The "great hope" for a Moore's Law of wind mills and solar panels is a fallacy. Input prices have declined because energy prices have (21:05);
Where does that leave electric cars? (25:00);
Background on the guest (33:42);
What parts of the energy industry are better targets for investment right now? Look to uranium for starters, "the perfect solution to our problems" (37:17);
Copper is "the quintessential green metal" also facing a supply/demand imbalance. Also agricultural commodities, grains, fertilizers, nitrogen, and potash (41:26);
Mosaic (MOS) is one of the world's largest phosphate and potash producers, and a stock the guest is particularly bullish on -- it trades at just 5x earnings versus 25x at the peak (47:07);
An agricultural crisis could soon be upon us, leading to hoarding of supplies (49:58).

More Information About the Guest

Website: GoRozen.com;
Twitter: @GoRozen;
LinkedIn;
Link to Goehring & Rozencwajg video on the history of energy.

Stock Picks to Play the Coming Inflation Slowdown: Lukasz Tomicki Mar 24, 2022

This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, March 22, 2022, and released to premium subscribers --without ads or announcements -- that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our substack or supercast to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits.

Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital rejoins the podcast to argue his (highly contrarian) case that inflation is due to slow and to provide stock picks that allow investors to take advantage of current dislocations in markets.

Content Highlights

Inflation will peak around mid-year and return to historic norms shortly thereafter (2:43);
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its impact on supply chains have certainly contributed to higher prices for commodities, but markets will adapt (7:01);
Another contrarian take: The Fed will successfully manage a soft landing (8:55);
"Russia is basically a gas station with nuclear weapons." The U.S. and Europe can deal without Russian imports so this shouldn't be a point of concern (14:20);
Stocks of two Brazilian companies that have been beaten down but have started to rebound... (20:05);
A company that has been directly impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an IT consulting firm with a large presence in Ukraine whose stock has predictably been beaten up but could offer huge returns (31:38);
The most likely outcome in Ukraine is for the military situation to grind to a stalemate (35:55);
A final idea: Buy the Polish stock market through the iShares MSCI Poland Capped ETF (EPOL) (39:50).

More Information on the Guest

Website: LRTcapital.com;
Twitter: @Tomicki.

Not intended as investment advice.

Stock Picks for an Uncertain Time: Allen Bond, Jensen Investment Management Mar 17, 2022

This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com -- claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber.

Allen Bond, managing director and portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management in Lake Oswego, Ore., joins the podcast to provide some stock picks for an increasingly uncertain -- and inflationary -- time in global financial markets.

Content Highlights

Investors have two major issues they're grappling with right now: Ukraine and inflation (5:51);
To protect against inflationary pressures, Jensen looks for businesses that have pricing power (11:11);
Mastercard (MA) and TJX (TJX) are two such stocks (13:29);
Background on the guest (19:36);
Three additional stock ideas, starting with ADP (ADP), another company that is difficult to displace (28:54);
Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), the leading provider of proxy services (35:51);
Pfizer (PFE) has sold off since making Covid vaccine headlines last year, but continues to generate a ton of cash -- and put it to productive use (43:26).

More Information on the Guest

Website: JensenInvestment.com;
LinkedIn.

Not intended as investment advice.

Watch for the Bounce in Equities: Brent Kochuba, Spot Gamma Mar 10, 2022

Brent Kochuba of Spot Gamma joins the podcast to discuss his view that there will likely be an equities rally into the March 17 options expiration.

This podcast was recorded Wednesday afternoon, March 9, 2022, and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber today by visiting Contrarian.Supercast.com or our Substack. There are many benefits beyond getting podcasts a few days (or more) early and not having to deal with annoying ads or announcements.

Content Highlights

Stocks have been selling off with the Nasdaq now officially in a bear market. But the guest is short-term bullish for reasons that can be traced to market makers hedging counterparty risk (2:39);
What about all the uncertainty with Russia-Ukraine? (5:57);
Stocks are up since the start of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, likely because markets were hedged going in due to Fed tightening concerns (9:28);
What to make of the March 9 rally? A brief primer on gamma, vanna, and charm aka delta decay (11:02);
Similar gamma squeezes caused rallies in the past around options expiry (15:20);
Background on the guest (21:31);
The hedges investors have put on ahead of the FOMC meeting next week should lead to more risk-off. The lower bound for the S&P 500 is 4,100 (24:36);
Recent days have seen a change in options flow: Nvidia (NVDA) and crypto names such as Coinbase (COIN) have benefited along with Amazon (AMZN) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) (26:50);
Liquidity is important and recent months have seen some of it leave the system (30:06).

More Information on the Guest

Website: SpotGamma.com;
Twitter: @SpotGamma;
YouTube: SpotGamma;

Not intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions!

The 'Bad Times Are Already Here': Tobias Carlisle Mar 02, 2022

This podcast episode was recorded on Feb. 25 and released to premium subscribers (without ads) the following day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, visit Contrarian.Supercast.com or ContrarianPod.substack.com and sign up! Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market's latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present... Content Highlights

How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11)
Every war starts with "the boys will be home by Christmas," but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer... (5:13);
Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably... (8:52);
The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53);
Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder... (21:25);
Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20);
Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12);
The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are "probably here" (37:18).

More From the Guest

Website: AcquirersFund.com;
Twitter: @Greenbackd;
Books: The Acquirer's Multiple and Deep Value via Amazon.

Opportunities Abound in Emerging Asia, with Herald van der Linde, HSBC Feb 15, 2022

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Feb. 9. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit Contrarian.Supercast.com or ContrarianPod.substack.com and sign up!

Herald van der Linde, head of Asia equity strategy for HSBC in Hong Kong, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging Asia.

Content Highlights

Emerging markets have under-performed developed markets, including in Asia -- but this is not an entirely fair comparison (3:09);
What of the premise that much of emerging Asia are simply suppliers to China and therefore dependent on that country? This too is not so simple... (6:01);
Markets like Indonesia move independent of China and the U.S. With 250 million people, a growing middle class, and improved infrastructure, this is one area where there are opportunities (8:21);
Financial services still have ample room to grow in the region, with large numbers of under-banked individuals. The energy sector, meanwhile, is transitioning (12:45);
Background on the guest (19:26);
Consumers are a growing force throughout Asia, but individual countries have vastly different spending habits. An overview (24:38);
There is one country that nobody is really looking at in professional investing circles. The possibilities are enormous. That country is Bangladesh (31:55).

More Information on the Guest

Book: Asia's Stock Market from the Ground Up available on GoodReads, Amazon.com also in Kindle edition, and elsewhere;
Twitter: @HeraldLinde;
LinkedIn.

The Case for the Turkish Lira, With Dave Fishwick, M&G Investments Feb 03, 2022

This episode was recorded on Jan. 27 and aired for premium subscribers on Feb. 2, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. Dave Fishwick joins the podcast to make the argument for investing in the Turkish lira after it dropped half its value versus major currencies. The appeal is not just the value but the carry, resulting in the equivalent of 30% to 40% annual interest income. To Fishwick and his team, the trade is not only contrarian but an example of the type of idiosyncratic idea that has no correlation to other parts of the portfolio. The conversation is not limited to Turkey but expands to the U.S., China, and other emerging markets during the second half of the episode.

(This podcast was recorded in person at the iConnections conference in Miami. The acoustics were not ideal and there is some background noise as a result. Apologies for the inconvenience.)

Content Highlights

The macroeconomic policy experiment in Turkey, where the country's central bank took the highly unorthodox step of combating a sovereign crisis by reducing interest rates. The Turkish lira went into freefall as a result (2:24);
The lira looks attractive on a real basis, but the real appeal comes in the so-called carry, an often-forgotten part of foreign exchange markets. How this works (3:29);
Some background on the strategy by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, which is on the surface frightening. But therein lies the appeal (5:22);
Why buy the Turkish lira when the CBRT is cutting rates while the Fed is raising rates? (11:07);
If the CBRT succeeds with this experiment, could other emerging market countries follow its example? The strategy is not unprecedented... (13:15);
Background on the guest (16:19);
Fishwick's view on current markets. The market has re-rated asset classes, despite upbeat economic news (18:43);
The present situation may appear bizarre, but it not without parallel. Why it's hard to be bearish for the longer-term (21:48);
Other areas of the world that are interesting for investors, especially contrarians (24:11);
There are "some similarities" with what happened the last time the Fed entered on a sustained interest hiking campaign (2004 to 2007), but many differences. The key? Watch the inflation data, though the Fed's record on engineering soft landings is poor (27:05).

More Information on the Guest

Website: MandG.com;
LinkedIn.

Picking Stocks for the Long Term, With Alex Morris, The Science of Hitting Jan 26, 2022

This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Jan. 18, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast.

Alex Morris of The Science of Hitting Investment Research joins the podcast to discuss his views of markets, asset allocation, and a couple of stocks he is particularly bullish on at present. The conversation also includes a discussion of the just-announced buyout of Activision (ATVI) by Microsoft (MSFT).

(The host has a bit of a throat issue and is hoarse for this recording. Apologies for the inconvenience.)

Content Highlights

Thinking about asset allocation in a structural manner -- with 90% or more invested in equities (3:32);
How then to invest the equity portion? The first filter is business quality (7:43);
Disney (DIS) has been one of Alex's favorite stocks for some time with Netflix (NFLX) a more recent favorite (12:26);
Background on the guest (22:18);
Other portfolio holdings and the Microsoft-Activision (ATVI) deal. Full disclosure: ATVI is/was part of the Contrarian Investor's portfolio for reasons that are briefly discussed (27:31);
Could Facebook (FB) be forced to spin off any of its holdings? (32:20);
When to sell a stock (36:18);
Lastly a short discussion about our favorite soccer/football team (38:50).

More on the Guest

Website: TheScienceOfHitting.com;
Twitter: @TSOH_Investing.

The Nascent Sino-U.S. Financial Cold War, with James Fok Jan 18, 2022

This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount!

This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Jan. 13, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast.

James Fok joins the podcast to discuss his book 'Financial Cold War: A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets'. In Fok's view, the fates of China and the U.S. are highly intertwined, and neither country's leaders want the conflict to escalate -- but that could easily change.

Content Highlights

How the financial cold war is defined, some of the ways it is already impacting society and economics, and the risks of greater conflicts (3:06);
Is military conflict between the U.S. and China inevitable? (4:49);
The fates of the two countries are highly intertwined but the U.S. dollar and global monetary system have exacerbated imbalances (7:46);
Why the belief that the USD's global role is good for the U.S. is a fallacy (11:02);
The world needs to become less USD-denominated if the financial Cold War is going to be resolved. There is precedence for this (18:00);
Background on the guest (30:00);
The state of China's economy and where it's headed (33:44);
China's economic problems are clear for all to see, but the social implications are probably being significantly underestimated (36:49).

More Information on the Guest

Website: JamesAFok.com;
Book: Financial Cold War.

Barry Knapp on Uncertainty Shocks, Inflation, Economic Growth, and What Else to Expect in 2022 Jan 06, 2022

This podcast episode was recorded on Jan. 5 and released to premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. To learn about becoming a premium subscriber, go here.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his 2022 outlook for the economy and markets. He is broadly optimistic on the former, but less enthusiastic about the latter -- at least in the first half of the year -- with strong possibility of 'uncertainty shocks,' especially around Fed events (sound familiar?) There is also some interesting discussion around interest rates, inflation, and China, among others.

Content Highlights

(Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp)

A lot has changed in a year, though probably nothing quite as much as the inflation outlook (3:04);
Markets and economics should diverge significantly in the first half of the year (4:51);
The Federal Reserve is due to embark on a rate-tightening cycle, which should be negative for markets but will be net-neutral, or perhaps even positive for the economy (8:00);
Inflation is running hot, but the guest has done some deep research on similar historical epochs and finds the concern less pressing than most (17:20);
The key level for inflation is 4% -- if the CPI exceeds it consistently there could be trouble. Link to the Fed paper referenced here (21:33);
Still, there is a strong possibility for 'uncertainty shocks' in the first half of the year (29:52);
Finally, China: Reasons to be bearish. Very bearish (34:58).

More Information on the Guest

Website: IronsidesMacro.com;
Newsletter: IronsidesMacro.Substack.com;
Twitter: @BarryKnapp.

Causes for Optimism in 2022, With Ryan Worch Dec 21, 2021

This podcast episode was recorded on Dec. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this benefit and a host of other services (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast released each market day morning) go to ContrarianPod.substack.com or Contrarian.Supercast.tech to subscribe.

There is a special 40% year-end discount on new memberships through Dec. 31!

Ryan Worch of Worch Capital rejoins the podcast to provide his outlook on stocks for 2022. Spoiler alert: He’s bullish. With certain qualifications. Worch mentions specific securities in the latter half of the episode.

Nothing here is intended as investment advice.

Content Highlights

Worch’s contrarian call: We’re still in a secular bull market (4:14);
Underneath the surface there has been “some very real destruction in the speculative part of the markets.” Why this is happening (6:05);
Is there any hopes for the Cathie Wood names, meme stocks, cryptos, and NFTs? (9:25);
Many people are bearish. Too many (15:33);
How Worch Capital is positioning its portfolio and some favorite names (20:45);

A brief discussion about inflation (28:09).

More Information on the Guest

Website: WorchCapital.com;
Twitter: @WorchCapital.

The Market Doesn't Care About Omicron or Inflation: Enrique Abeyta Dec 07, 2021

This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Dec. 2, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. This episode uses mature language. Discretion is advised for listeners that may be sensitive to this type of thing.

Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the omicron strain of Covid-19 and inflation, and share his excitement about the metaverse. Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, could become the world's first $5 trillion enterprise. Not intended as investment advice.

Content Highlights

The market didn't go down because of omicron or because of what the Fed chair said. What caused the selling instead (5:09);
Omicron is not the first Covid strain. It won't be the last. Society and the economy have been able to deal with the variants (6:28);
Inflation is another boogey man (8:10);
The spike in the VIX is more noteworthy -- and a bullish indicator for stocks (12:39);
What about gold? (16:56);
The metaverse: It's already here. People just don't realize it yet (24:07);
Meta, the stock formerly known as Facebook, is as good a way as any to profit from these developments (27:29);
Oil and gas "could go to the moon" (39:52).

More Information on the Guest

Website: EmpireFinancialResearch.com;
Twitter: @EnriqueAbeyta;
Everything about HardMoneyMag.

Forget Inflation -- Deflationary Forces Are the More Vexing Issue, Says Emma Muhleman Nov 16, 2021

This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount!

This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Nov. 11, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast.

Emma Muhleman of Ascend Investment Management joins the podcast to make the contrarian argument that inflation is overrated, will not cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and that deflationary forces are the bigger worry for global financial markets.

These deflationary forces are both short term (slowdown in China) and long term (demographics in the developed world). Much of the discussion centers around the former. Muhleman's comments are her own and not a reflection of her employer. Nothing here is intended as investment advice.

Content Highlights

(Spotify listeners can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment)

The market is pricing in a series of interest rate hikes for the coming 24 months. But the Fed has backed off of a tightening schedule before (2:18);
Bonds have been selling off, but investors will find themselves on the wrong side of this trade when Fed backs off of tapering (4:07);
Inflation is a supply-side problem that the Fed doesn't have control of. Markets are too fragile to handle rate hikes (5:06);
The latest FOMC meeting where tapering was announced "was probably the most dovish taper you could come up with" (9:20);
Deflationary forces, starting with China, are a major issue the market is overlooking. This despite the best (non-publicized) efforts by the Chinese government (10:49);
It's not just China though; demographics and debt are part of the longer-term trend toward deflation (19:19);
Background on the guest (22:33);
What about potential headwinds, from China or elsewhere? (24:58);
Unwinding Evergrande: Where is the exposure? (29:05);
How much longer can the Fed taper before their hand is forced to back off? (31:17);
What indicators should investors keep an eye on to monitor this situation? (34:35).

More Information on the Guest

Twitter: @Emma_cfa;
LinkedIn.

mployer. Nothing here is intended as investment advice.

The Coming Stock Market Bust, With David Hunter, Contrarian Macro Advisors Nov 08, 2021

This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code “contrarian” at checkout for a 10% discount!

This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Nov. 4, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast.

Note: The aforementioned service has nothing to do with David Hunter's newsletter. Individuals interested in finding out more about that service should contact David directly by Twitter direct message.

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to provide updates on his prediction that stock markets are in the final stage of a parabolic melt-up that will be followed by a global bust. Hunter's initial targets for the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and other U.S. stock market indexes have been breached, causing him to provide new, even more bullish, targets.

The bust will likely start with a 'second-quarter swoon' next year, caused by the Federal Reserve overreacting to inflation. The deflationary meltdown will then cause another overreaction by central banks and government fiscal policies. Not intended as investment advice.

Content Highlights

(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment in question)

Hunter's new targets on the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (2:50);
Oil and oil stocks have peaked for this cycle (6:50);
The bust should happen about mid-way through 2022 and result in oil prices back in the mid-$20s range (8:25);
The cycle will end because the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates due to inflationary pressures (10:28);
Central banks around the world are withdrawing quantitative easing and some have even started to adjust interest rates higher. This will affect things and force the Fed's hand. Resolution of supply chain issues would increase the pressure (15:54);
China will definitely play a major role in the bust, though Evergrande is probably just the tip of the iceberg (19:27);
What happens after the bust is an unprecedented flow of liquidity. Yes, even more than COVID. There will be bank failures, though more in Europe and Asia than the U.S. (21:17);
Central banks only have one tool to combat this, which is quantitative easing. They will be matched by fiscal stimulus. It will be "March of 2020 on steroids, basically. Multiple steroids" (26:07).

More Information on the Guest

Twitter: @DaveHContrarian (send him a direct message if you are interested in finding out more about his service).

3 Areas of Technology Investors Need to Watch, With Simon Erickson, 7investing Nov 01, 2021

This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount!

This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Oct. 28, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast.

Simon Erickson, founder and CEO of 7investing, joins the podcast to discuss three areas of technological innovation and disruption that stand to transform the world of business as we know it. The guest identifies one stock from each area, with the understanding that it is not intended as investment advice.

Content Highlights

(Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp)

Why focusing on technological change is contrarian (3:41);
Idea No. 1: Buy now, pay later or BNPL. Disruptive to credit card companies (4:37);
Several upstarts have 'cracked this code' but Erickson has one that he's been paying close attention to (5:57);
Idea No. 2: Quantum computing (14:23);
Background on the guest (22:25);
Idea No. 3: Gene editing (25:24);
How to go about picking entry points for investments in these areas? (31:30);
What about cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies? (33:47).

More Information on the Guest

Website: 7investing.com;
Twitter: @7innovator;
More on 7investing subscriptions here.

The Lessons From Iceland's Financial Collapse, With Jared Bibler Oct 20, 2021

This episode brought to you by the Me, Myself and AI podcast. To get episodes without ads or interruptions, and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), consider joining our premium service. Prices start at $9/month. More information on our Substack and Supercast.

Jared Bibler joins the podcast to discuss his book 'Iceland's Secret' and his experience living through that country's financial collapse in 2008.

It was a very dark period in Iceland's history, with individuals losing homes and savings and not being able to buy food. The author experienced this first-hand, initially as an asset manager and later working for regulators seeking to bring the responsible parties to justice. The crisis in Iceland shocked the world but was quickly overshadowed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the U.S. Today it is largely forgotten outside of Iceland. But the author says his experience holds many lessons for the present day. If nothing else, his experience holds lessons for those interested in hedging against a total collapse of capital markets and civil society.

Content Highlights

(Spotify users can link to the start of the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

Why Iceland's financial crisis remains misunderstood and not discussed while still holding important relevance to global capital markets today (2:36);
Iceland as an extreme example of the contemporary world (7:51);
Corruption unfortunately remains 'fairly endemic' worldwide in the guest's experience, which transcends several countries (12:43);
The next crisis will make 2008 'look like a walk in the park' (14:27);
Lessons for the prepper community: hard currency retains its value quite well in such crises (18:57);
The crypto world is ripe for fraud and 'tethered' coins do not seem to offer the protection claimed (23:30);
Background on the guest (29:21);
How he's spending his days now and why ESG has the attention of global regulators (36:54);
Insider trading, especially around M&A deals, is rampant (38:36);
What has changed in Iceland, other than a tourist explosion (43:50).

More Information on the Author

Order the book online here;
Website: IcelandsSecret.com;
Twitter: @Jared_Bibler.

Not intended as investment advice.

The Long Term Bull Case for Oil, With Todd Sullivan, ValuePlays.com Oct 07, 2021

This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount!

To get episodes without ads or interruptions, and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), consider joining our premium service. Prices start at $9/month. More information on our Substack and Supercast.

Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com joins the podcast to discuss his long term bullish views on oil. The guest also provides his favorite stocks -- all portfolio holdings of his -- for investors to take advantage of this trend.

Content Highlights

(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the section directly)

Big picture elements of supply, demand, and infrastructure that are driving the long term bull case for oil (2:50);
What about the potential for an economic slowdown in the U.S. and more importantly China? How might that impact things? (7:39);
Background on the guest and how he turned his passion as a blogger and investor into his current position (11:17);
The three energy names he really likes right now (18:51);
Energy has been unpopular for some time and people are under the illusion that gas and oil are going away. "Nothing could be further from the truth." (25:28);
Why transport companies are more of a pure-play on energy prices than drillers (29:30);
$100/barrel oil is a "realistic scenario" and prices could stay high after that as the macro outlook remains constructive (37:17);
The bullish outlook for the cannabis industry in the U.S. -- this will be the topic of a future episode (42:49).

More Information on the Guest

Website: ValuePlays.com;
Twitter: @ToddSullivan.

Special Offer for Listeners

Subscribe to ValuePlays at the original rate (discount of 63% over current prices). The guest discusses specifics of the service starting at (32:04).

The Transformation of the Hedge Fund Industry, With Dominique Mielle Sep 28, 2021

Get this podcast episode without ads and receive episodes up to a full week before regular subscribers. You also get the Daily Contrarian briefing and mini-podcast each morning. Sign up through our Substack or Supercast.

Dominque Mielle joins the podcast to discuss the transformation of the hedge fund industry, as encapsulated in her book 'Damsel in Distressed: My Life in the Golden Age of Hedge Funds.' Mielle's career in hedge funds spans three decades, a period of dramatic growth that has culminated with many investors today questioning whether it still makes sense to allocate to the asset class -- to the extent that it can even be called an asset class. The guest says hedge funds still have value in certain circumstances, but there are many forces working against them. She also has some views on markets and even cryptos that are discussed in the back end of the episode.

Content Highlights

(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly)

Her reasons for writing the book: very few women in hedge funds and the critical growth periods she observed in the industry (2:05);
So does the hedge fund industry have a future? (5:15);
What exactly has changed in the last 20+ years to make hedge funds less compelling? (8:02);
There is certainly less mystique around hedge funds, and the media now reports returns and other things regularly -- something the host himself has been guilty of. How has that affected things? (13:54);
Okay, so what is the value proposition for hedge funds? (18:58);
Background on the guest (25:36);
What if a woman wrote a 'Liar's Poker' of the hedge fund world? And why aren't there more women in finance? (31:30);
The guest's view of markets at present. Tapering is critical (40:23);
Her views on cryptocurrencies (44:47).

More Information on the Guest:

Website: DominiqueMielle.com;
Book: Damsel In Distressed, by Post Hill Press;
Twitter: DominiqueMielle.

Not intended as investment advice.

Dangers Lurk in Market Structure's Changing Dynamics Sep 14, 2021

This episode brought to you by the Connecticut Economic Literacy Initiative. The get this podcast without ads or announcements, and a week before regular subscribers, sign up for the premium service through our Substack or Supercast.

Michael Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins the podcast to discuss the changing dynamics of market structure and how these are creating the potential for havoc.

Content Highlights:

(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly)

Market structure: what it means and how it has changed (3:30);
How passive investing pools are changing the equation (6:26);
How Tesla (TSLA) is the perfect case study for this phenomenon (8:39);
The Fed's impact when it comes to the bond market. This has ripple effect (13:02);
The interest rate and inflation outlook in the U.S. (15:34);
Background on the guest (20:55);
Passive investing has caused a host of confusing signals where the market cycle is concerned (24:37);
Business cycles are still alive and well, and this can of course impact the market. Where that stands today (30:05);
Market 'skew' is dramatically higher and chances of a collapse are increasing. "The market senses something is wrong." (34:31).

More Information on the Guest:

Twitter: @profplum99;
Website: Simplify.us.

The 'New Normal' of Blue-Collar Labor Shortages, With Gad Levanon, The Conference Board Aug 30, 2021

This episode brought to you by the Connecticut Economic Literacy Initiative. The get this podcast without ads or announcements, and a week before regular subscribers, sign up for the premium service through our Substack or Supercast.

Gad Levanon, head of Labor Market Institute at The Conference Board, joins the podcast to discuss his views of employment trends.

Levanon's analysis differs from the consensus view of labor markets. In his view, unusual demographic and educational trends are causing a 'new normal' of shortages among blue-collar workers. These jobs can be expected to see fast wage growth, bringing a host of restraints on the next stage of economic expansion.

Content Highlights:

(Spotify users can link directly to the start of the segment in question by clicking on the timestamp below)

The 'new normal' of labor shortages (3:35);
The economic impact of rising wages for blue-collar workers: corporate profits and higher consumer prices (7:29);
Automation has the potential to help the trend somewhat, but there are reasons to be skeptical (10:37);
How close is the U.S. to reaching full employment? (14:29);
What all of this says for the next stage of the economic cycle (16:57);
Background on the guest (20:22);
The 'work-from-home' trend and how that is impacting things (22:47);
Other trends in employment and labor markets (27:27);
The guest's primary concerns about the economy and society at present (31:22).

Background on the Guest:

The Conference Board website and bio;
Forbes contributions.

When Investors Become Gamblers -- And Why It's Happening Now Aug 17, 2021

This episode brought to you by the Connecticut Economic Literacy Initiative. The get this podcast without ads or announcements, and a week before regular subscribers, sign up for the premium service through our Substack or Supercast.

William L. Silber, author of the book ‘The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business,’ joins the podcast to discuss his thesis that individuals, including investors, can become reckless gamblers if they have nothing to lose.

Silber has a career dating back to 1966 in academia and Wall Street. His comments are pertinent in the present day of cryptocurrencies, the ‘retailization’ of options trading, NFTs, and meme stocks, among others. So is his recommendation (not investment advice) to reduce risk exposure.

Content Highlights

When people have downside protection and limitless losses, “they tend to become reckless and almost gamblers” (3:48)
Rogue traders and the skewed payoff that makes them go rogue (14:41);
What to make of the present day and investors’ collective risk appetite, especially regarding meme stocks? (17:32);
Background on the guest (24:55);
A valuable lesson learned at Odyssey Partners in the 1980s: what’s an exit strategy? (27:47);
Is this a time for investors to reduce risks and sell stocks? (30:26);
Precious metals and their place in a modern portfolio (36:52);

More Information on the Guest

Bubbles Lurk in Sovereign Debt, Financial Engineering, With Michael Ehrlich Aug 03, 2021

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Michael Ehrlich, director of the Leir Center for Financial Bubble Research at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, joins the podcast to discuss his views.

Dr. Ehrlich has identified two areas of concern: sovereign debt and financial engineering.

This is not his only area of interest however, as Dr. Ehrlich is passionate about early-stage venture/angel investing, which guides the discussion in the second half of the episode.

Content Highlights

It's been a long time since the last sovereign debt crisis. Too long (1:47);
Keep an eye out for private equity as well (8:02);
Bubbles are part of the market and can even be viewed as a good thing. Until they aren't (9:44);
SPACs and cryptos are two examples of financial engineering potentially gone awry (10:56);
Background on the guest (15:07);
Venture capital has historically controlled early-stage investing. But this is changing (18:07);
Financial technology, aka 'fintech' is one area Dr. Ehrlich likes a lot (20:20);
What about driverless cars? (23:35)