The Cognitive Crucible - Information Professionals Association

Latest Episodes:

#177 Tom Kent on How Russia Loses Dec 05, 2023

Show notes

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.

During this episode, Tom Kent returns to the Cognitive Crucible to discuss his latest book: How Russia Loses: Hubris and Miscalculation in Putin's Kremlin. Vladimir Putin's efforts to build influence abroad have succeeded in many places, leading some to see him as a master tactician whose skills are practically unbeatable. "How Russia Loses" takes a more skeptical approach, arguing that Russian influence operations have also been plagued by overconfidence and misjudgments, often repeating themselves in case after case. Thomas Kent's book looks at six case studies where Russian fortunes suffered temporary or long-term reversals, and the reasons for those setbacks – from Russia's own weaknesses to nimble responses by pro-democracy actors. The book spans Russian operations in Ukraine, Ecuador, South Africa and North Macedonia, as well as Moscow's efforts to promote the Nordstream 2 pipeline and its Sputnik COVID vaccine. Kent offers an extensive analysis of common threads that have weakened Russian influence operations, and how the West can use this knowledge to respond more effectively to future efforts by Moscow.

Resources:

Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
[Free Download] How Russia Loses: Hubris and Miscalculation in Putin's Kremlin by Tom Kent
Taxonomy of Influence Strategies

Link to full show notes and resources

https://information-professionals.org/episode/cognitive-crucible-episode-177

Guest Bio:

Thomas Kent teaches and consults on Russian affairs, journalism, and the problems of propaganda and disinformation. President of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty until 2018, he now teaches at Columbia University and consults for governments, NGOs, and news organizations. He is a senior fellow of The Jamestown Foundation and an associate fellow of Slovakia's GLOBSEC. Previously, he was Moscow bureau chief for The Associated Press, head of AP's international news coverage, and editor for standards and ethics. His first book, Striking Back: Overt and Covert Options to Combat Russian Disinformation, was published by Jamestown in 2020.

About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

#176 Bob Jones on Special Operations at a Crossroads and Strategic Influence Nov 28, 2023

Show notes

During this episode, Bob Jones returns to the Cognitive Crucible to discuss strategic influence and how the United States is at a crossroads. Additionally, we revisit Bob's previous Cognitive Crucible appearance and discuss the importance of governance and taking other people's perspectives.

Research Question: Bob Jones suggests as interested student examine:

Is political conflict internal to a single system inherently different than political conflict between two or more systems; and if so, how, why and so what?
How is the modern Chinese effort to expand their sovereignty to match their expanded power distinct from, or similar to, the US efforts to do the same in the 1890 to 1914 timeframe?
If one expands the definition of unconventional warfare (UW) to the leveraging of foreign political grievances to advance or secure one's interests, do al Qaeda and ISIS conduct UW?
Does the presence of absence of violence lend strategic insight to the nature of a political competition/conflict?
If one accepts that AQ and ISIS wage UW campaigns, how does one best disrupt, defeat, or render irrelevant their efforts?
Is counterinsurgency best thought of as a purely domestic, civilian-led activity; where, as in all domestic emergencies, the military is always in support, last in and first out?
It has been offered that internal, revolutionary insurgency differs from democracy only in legality; and that causation is rooted in how some distinct demographic feels about the governance affecting their lives. How does this perspective affect counterinsurgency operations?

Resources:

- Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
  - #56 Bob Jones on Governance
- Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands (Volume III)
- U.S. Command Perspectives on Campaigning in Support of Integrated Deterrence (Volume IV)
- Casebooks on insurgency
- On Guerrilla Warfare by Mao Tse-tung
- Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice by David Galula
- Fighting Talk: Forty Maxims on War, Peace, and Strategy by Colin Gray
- The Ugly American by William J. Lederer and Eugene Burdick
- The Summer of 1787: The Men Who Invented The Constitution by David O. Stewart
- Founding Brothers: The Revolutionary Generation by Joseph J. Ellis
- How to Think Like Einstein: Simple Ways to Break the Rules and Discover Your Hidden Genius by Scott Thorpe
- The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us and What We Can Do About It by Joshua Cooper Ramo
- Guns, Germs, and Steele: The Fates of Human Societies by Jared Diamond Ph.D.
- The Art of War by Sun Tzu

Link to full show notes and resources

https://information-professionals.org/episode/cognitive-crucible-episode-176

Guest Bio:

Mr. Robert Jones is a retired U.S. Army Special Forces Colonel; a former Deputy District Attorney; a Fellow with the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS), and the Senior Strategist at U.S. Special Operations Command. Currently serving as a member of the SOCOM J5 Donovan Group, Mr. Jones is responsible for leading innovative thinking on the strategic environment and understanding how it impacts factors critical to national security, such as competition, the character of conflict, deterrence and societal stability.

Mr. Robert Jones is a retired U.S. Army Special Forces Colonel; a former Deputy District Attorney; and the Senior Strategist at U.S. Special Operations Command. Currently serving as a member of the SOCOM J5 Donovan Group, Mr. Jones is responsible for leading innovative thinking on the strategic environment and understanding how it impacts factors critical to national security, such as competition, the character of conflict, deterrence and societal stability.

Mr. Jones's principle focus is on the fundamental human aspects of political conflict. In a rapidly evolving strategic environment, good strategy is rooted in understanding what remains constant and why; while good tactics demands a realistic appreciation for what is different or changed. Successful campaigning demands a fusion of the two. He enjoys "wire brushing" concepts by routinely standing in front of tough audiences. None of these is tougher than those he faces in his role as a fixture in the Joint Special Operations University's Enlisted Academy, applying a commonsense perspective to bring our most experienced Special Operators strategic insights they can actually use. This is also the third consecutive year that Mr. Jones has addressed the Air War College class during the Operational Design phase of their curriculum, sharing practical insights gleaned from his experiences.

He has been a featured speaker at Universities as storied as Oxford, St Andrews, Stanford and Harvard; and has led professional development events with operational units across the SOCOM enterprise. Mr. Jones is also a Fellow with the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS).

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

#175 Ryan Ratcliffe on Cognitive Warfare Nov 21, 2023

Show notes

During this episode, Marine Corps Maj Ryan Ratcliffe discusses his recent article entitled: Cognitive Warfare: Maneuvering in the Human Dimension. Our discussion covers national security challenges at the intersection of technology and cognition, information maneuver, and emerging offensive/defensive needs.

Resources:

- Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
- Cognitive Warfare: Maneuvering in the Human Dimension by Majors Andrew MacDonald and Ryan Ratcliffe, U.S. Marine Corps
- New York Times Article: China Sows Disinformation About Hawaii Fires Using New Techniques
- Marine Corps MCDP 1-4 Competing
- Books mentioned:
  - The Age of AI: And Our Human Future by Kissinger, Schmidt, and Huttenlocher
  - Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow by Yuval Noah Harari
  - On Grand Strategy by John Lewis Gaddis
  - Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World by David Epstein

Link to full show notes and resources

Guest Bio: Major Ratcliffe is an EA-6B electronic warfare officer and joint terminal attack controller assigned to the office of the chief of naval operations staff. Previously, he served in the office of the Deputy Commandant for Information, Headquarters, U.S. Marine Corps. He holds a master of international public policy from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

#174 Kara Masick on Assessment Insights from Program Evaluation Nov 14, 2023

Show notes

During this episode, US Air Force Major Kara Masick discusses her thought-provoking article: 12 (Mis)Steps from Sober Assessments: Confessions of a Failed OIE Assessor. Our discussion covers her OIE assessment recovery journey. Like an alcoholic seeking sobriety by first admitting they have a problem and acknowledging where they've gone wrong, this essay is 12 confessions of her OIE assessment failures. During the discussion, she presents a new assessment metric that she calls: Most Likely Cause (MLC). Assessors should learn to think like an IT Helpdesk professional; like detectives discovering clues to find the most likely culprit, we can weigh relative likelihoods that our OIE had the effect compared to other potential causes.

Resources:

Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
IPA Blog Article: 12 (Mis)Steps from Sober Assessments: Confessions of a Failed OIE Assessor by Kara Masick
The Iron Law Of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules by Peter H. Rossi
Evaluation: A Systematic Approach by Peter H. Rossi, Mark W. Lipsey, Gary T. Henry
Foundations of Program Evaluation: Theories of Practice By Shadish, Cook, Levitan
Scriven, M. (1974). Maximizing the power of causal investigations: The modus operandi method. In Evaluation in education (pp. 68–84). McCutchan Publishing
Scriven, M. (2005). The Logic and Methodology of Checklists.
McGuire's Classic Input–Output Framework for Constructing Persuasive Messages. In Public Communication Campaigns (Fourth Edition, pp. 133–145). SAGE Publications, Inc.
Decoding Crimea. Pinpointing the Influence Strategies of Modern Information Warfare by Alan Kelly and Christopher Paul

Link to full show notes and resources

Guest Bio:

Kara Masick is an Air Force 14F (Information Operations officer) with a passion for MISO/PSYOP who's worked mostly within Intel and Cyber organizations. She was the first 14F officially assigned to the J39 of the Information Warfare Numbered Air Force (16AF). She was sponsored by USSOCOM to study Psychology and is doing that within the Measurement Research methodology Evaluation and Statistics Lab at George Mason University (GMU) with the goal of improving her MISO operations and assessments contributions. Her dissertation research on persuasion uses Large Language Models to analyze text. Previously, she studied theology at the University of Oxford (certificate), Behavioral Science (BS) with Religious Studies and Arabic minors at the Air Force Academy, and Sociology (MA) at GMU.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

#173 John Gentry on Active Measures, Reflexive Control, and Useful Idiots Nov 07, 2023

Show notes

During this episode, Dr. John Gentry discusses long-term influence strategies employed by the former Soviet Union, which remain ongoing today. The conversation covers a wide range of related topics including reflexive control, useful idiots, institutions, diaspora, plus more.

Research Question: John Gentry suggests that an interested student examine vulnerabilities that attackers identify, what causes them, and how to ameliorate them. For starters, he describes three general categories: ideology, gullibility, and interests (for example: financial).

Resources:

Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
- #76 Yuval Levin on the Constitution & Institutions
Influence Operations of China, Russia, and the Soviet Union: A Comparison – Nipp
John A. Gentry, Information Operations against the United States: Defensive Actions are Needed, No. 556, June 12, 2023 – Nipp
Russia and China expected to renew their espionage vigour by Dries Putter and Sascha-Dominik Bachmann
Russia and China Expected to Renew their Espionage Vigour
The Red Atlas: How the Soviet Union Secretly Mapped the World by John Davies, Alexander Kent, and James Risen
Neutering the CIA: Why US Intelligence versus Trump Has Long-Term Consequences by John Gentry

Link to full show notes and resources

Guest Bio:

Dr. John A. Gentry is an adjunct professor with the School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University. He writes regularly on intelligence topics and security issues more generally. Dr. Gentry has an economics background and received a Ph.D. in political science from the George Washington University. His most recently published book is Neutering the CIA: Why US Intelligence versus Trump Has Long-Term Consequences.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

#172 Stephen Hunnewell on Geopolitical Risk in Asia and the Grey Zone Oct 31, 2023

Show notes

During this episode, Steve Hunnewell of Premise Data discusses geopolitical risk in Asia and the grey zone. Our conversation covers the rise of China and its implications for the global order, the growing strategic competition between China and the United States in Asia, the concept of hybrid warfare and how China and other countries use it, and the need for better integration of commercial solutions and implications for operations in the information environment.

Research Question: Steve Hunnewell suggests an interested student examine the following:

assess the "infinite game" and assess our positions of advantage?
How do we better integrate commercial solutions, public-private partnerships, etc to create an in-depth approach to creating resiliency?

Resources:

Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
- #150 Jill Goldenziel on China and the Philippines
- #166 John Agnello on Information Advantage
Persuade or Perish by Wallace Carroll
Spies and Lies: How China's Greatest Covert Operations Fooled the World by Alex Joske

Link to full show notes and resources

Guest Bio:

Before joining Premise Data, Steve Hunnewell was the Director of the Information Office for the United States Indo-Pacific Command. In this unique role, he served as the inaugural senior executive for strategic communications guidance and strategy, which focused on using data to improve the command's ability to engage within the information domain.

Hunnewell's previous public service supported a wide range of special operations, diplomatic, and strategic communications issues throughout the U.S. government, including serving as a Strategic Advisor for Information Operations on the NATO ISAF Counterinsurgency Advisory & Assistance Team (CAAT), U.S. DoD liaison for Afghan Reconciliation & Reintegration to the U.K. Foreign Commonwealth Office (FCO) & the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA); with additional roles and assignments in Ukraine, the Levant, Latin America, and Asia.

Hunnewell also has extensive experience in the private sector. He has held leadership positions at technology firms such as Novetta and Two Six Technologies. In these roles, he has worked on various issues, including leading product innovation and developing solutions that identify events, rhetoric, and behavior patterns, thus yielding actionable insights into relationships between messengers, messages, and audiences.

Steve's graduate studies and degrees include an MBA from the F.W. Olin Graduate School of Business at Babson College and international affairs at The Fletcher School at Tufts University.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

#171 Molly Dwyer on the Other Side of the Internet Oct 24, 2023

Show notes

During this episode, Molly Dwyer, Vice President of Analysis at Predata, discusses how she and her colleagues unlock the other side of the Internet. Predata is the only web-based platform that quantifies shifts in online attention–how audiences research and consume information–to provide a more complete picture of the geopolitical landscape. The Predata platform enables government and commercial organizations to incorporate insights from an often overlooked dataset into their strategy and operations.

Research Question: Molly suggests an interested student investigate ways to identify early signals or breadcrumbs on the Internet which indicate a shift in messaging before it happens?

Resources:

Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
- #129 Eliot Jardines on Open Source Intelligence
The 90-9-1 Rule for Participation Inequality in Social Media and Online Communities by Jakob Nielsen
PreData
FiscalNote
Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism by Anne Applebaum

Link to full show notes and resources

Guest Bio: Molly is Vice President of Analysis at Predata, part of FiscalNote, an open-source intelligence company based in Washington D.C. Predata's unique web-based analytics platform quantifies how online audiences consume and research information. The Predata platform enables users to analyze the "other side of the internet" beyond social media—understanding how web traffic patterns and online research behaviors help reveal the true reach of messaging, identifying the impact of disinformation, and uncovering early indicators of offline activity. In her seven-year career at Predata, Molly has played a key role in shaping the company's data research, product development, intelligence analysis, and relationships with customers from the public and private sectors. As a Russia/Eurasia subject matter expert, she has spent several years living and traveling across the region—including a Department of State posting at the U.S. Consulate in Yekaterinburg, Russia and a year of immersive language study as a National Security Language Initiative for Youth (NSLI-Y) scholarship recipient. She is a graduate of Princeton University.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

#170 Ben Zweibelson on Complex Warfare and the Future Oct 17, 2023

Show notes

During this episode, Dr. Ben Zweibelson, Director, USSPACECOM Strategic Innovation Group (SIG), discusses his book 'Beyond the Pale: Designing Military Decision-Making Anew.' The discussion cover's Ben philosophy related to managing the inter-war period we are experiencing, and his perspective on complexity.

Resources:

Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
PART I: The Singleton Paradox: On the Future of Human-Machine Teaming and Potential Disruption of War Itselfby Ben Zweibelson, PhD
PART II: Whale Songs of Wars Not Yet Waged: The Demise of Natural-Born Killers through Human-Machine Teamings Yet to Come by Ben Zweibelson, PhD
Types and Forms of Emergence by Jochen Fromm
Earth Liberation Front
Understanding the Military Design Movement: War, Change and Innovation by Ben Zweibelson, PhD
Beyond the Pale: Designing Military Decision-Making Anew by Ben Zweibelson, PhD
Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid by Douglas R. Hofstadter

Link to full show notes and resources

Guest Bio: Dr. Ben Zweibelson is the director of the U.S. Space Command's Strategic Innovation Group at Peterson Space Force Base, CO. A retired Army infantry officer with combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, he earned the Combat Infantryman Badge, Master Parachutist Badge, Pathfinder Badge, Air Assault Badge, the Ranger Tab, four Bronze Star medals, and various awards and citations in his 22 years combined service. He previously worked for U.S. Special Operations Command for seven years, running all design education, theory, and outreach for the Joint Special Operations University. He has a doctorate in philosophy, three master's degrees, and an undergraduate degree in graphic design. He has two design books forthcoming in the summer of 2023.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

#169 Adam Fivenson on Shielding Democracy Oct 10, 2023

Show notes

During this episode, Adam Fivenson of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) discusses his co-authored piece: Shielding Democracy: Civil Society Adaptations to Kremlin Disinformation about Ukraine.

Research Questions: Adam Fivenson suggests an interested student examine

How will the many changes taking place in our information ecosystem impact the 50+ national elections coming between now and the end of 2024?
Based on their prior actions and their efforts around the world, how might authoritarian actors take advantage of our evolving information space to spread divisive narratives that harm democracy?

Resources:

Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
- #151 Daniel Runde on Chinese Soft Power
Shielding Democracy: Civil Society Adaptations to Kremlin Disinformation about Ukraine by Adam Fivenson, Galyna Petrenko, Veronika Víchová, and Andrej Poleščuk
We Are Social 2023 Digital Report
European Union Digital Services Act
Russian War Report (Atlantic Council)
Russian War Report: DFRLab releases investigations on Russian info ops before and after the invasion by the Digital Forensic Research Lab
Other reports
Ukrainian counter-disinfo organizations
Other European organizations doing work to counter disinformation
LAC-based organization: Chequeado-Argentine fact checkers with LAC-wide network
Counter Disinfo Networks

Link to full show notes and resources

Guest Bio: Adam Fivenson is the senior program officer for information space integrity at the National Endowment for Democracy's International Forum for Democratic Studies, where he conducts research on the integrity in the information space and countering authoritarian information activities. Prior to joining the Forum, Adam advised political figures, governments, and international non-profits on communication, technology and data strategy, and led ethnographic research missions on the impact of new technologies on societies across four continents. He holds an MS from Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and a BA from the University of Michigan. Follow him on Twitter: @afivenson.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

#168 Mike Vera on Health Propaganda Oct 03, 2023

Show notes

During this episode, Mike Vera discusses health-related propaganda and personal standard operating procedures (SOP) which minimize bad health habits and malign influence effectiveness.

Research Question: Mike Vera suggests research into crowd psychology and the ability for AI to change minds on deeply held beliefs.

Resources:

Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
- #91 Denver Dill on the Arts
Mike Vera's Website
Deindividuation
Edward Bernays
The Crowd: A study of the Popular Mind by Gustave Le Bon
The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business by Charles Duhigg
The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right by Atul Gawande
Propaganda by Edward Bernays

Link to full show notes and resources

Guest Bio: Mike Vera is a Board-Certified Health Coach holding a Master's of Science degree specialized in Sport Psychology, Performance Enhancement, and Injury Prevention. As the founder of Red Pill Health & Wellness, he is fervently dedicated to debunking health myths and empowering individuals with scientifically accurate information. Beyond this, Mike is the creator of the 'Red Pill Your Health' program and the host of the 'Healthy & Awake' podcast. His unparalleled approach centers on understanding the influence of propaganda, guiding clients in controlling their environment and thoughts to achieve their health objectives. A staunch advocate for critical thinking, Mike's philosophy stands as a beacon for those eager to assert control over their well-being.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.