The Breakdown

Why Citi Thinks Bitcoin Is at a Tipping Point Mar 02, 2021

Today on the Brief:

Michael Saylor bought the dip
China bans bitcoin mining in Inner Mongolia
WallStreetBets moving off Reddit?

Our main discussion: Citi’s analysis of bitcoin.

February saw a non-stop barrage of bullish bitcoin news with regard to institutional uptake. March is off to a similar start with a massive research report arguing that:

Bitcoin’s evolution over the last seven years has been spectacular
CBDCs are likely to become more important
If CBDCs do become more important, it could spur more corporations to use bitcoin as a global settlement currency

NLW argues that the report itself may be the beginning of a new, important part of the institutional bitcoin narrative.

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Governments Couldn’t Ban Bitcoin Even if They Wanted To Feb 28, 2021

Today on “Long Reads Sunday,” NLW reads “Can Governments Stop Bitcoin?” by Alex Gladstein, published recently by Quillette. Gladstein argues that both technical and legal attacks on bitcoin are extremely difficult to execute, even for large governments.

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Are Beeple's $6.6M Sale and Christie's Auction a Turning Point for NFTs? Feb 27, 2021

This week on the Weekly Recap, NLW discusses:

The price dip
Tether’s settlement with the NYAG
Coinbase’s S1 Filings
Beeple’s record-setting NFT sales and what it means for the NFT space as a whole

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Why Cathie Wood Thinks Bitcoin Could Replace Bonds Feb 27, 2021

Today on the Brief:

SEC investigating Elon’s DOGE tweets?
U.S. income growth has second biggest monthly gain ever
Robinhood growth suggests crypto mainstreaming

Main discussion: Cathie Wood thinks bitcoin could replace bonds. In this episode, NLW lays out:

How Cathie Wood made a name by being early in Tesla, bitcoin and innovation
How ARK’s funds have grown
Why bonds aren’t performing anymore and why bitcoin could fill the gap in investor’s portfolios

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Bitcoin Investing Is ESG Investing Feb 26, 2021

In today's episode, NLW looks at how bitcoin fits with the growing trend of ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investing. In it, he:

Argues that ESG investors should disregard the false idea that bitcoin is only used for crime
Provides three frameworks for understanding bitcoin’s energy consumption
Demonstrates how marginalized communities are using bitcoin as a tool of economic empowerment
Argues that bitcoin provides a new, networked alternative to corporate governance

If You Sell Your Bitcoin, Michael Saylor and Jack Dorsey WILL Buy It Feb 25, 2021

Today on the Brief:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell comments on markets and digital currency
Cathie Wood’s ARK faces toughest stretch since last September
India’s latest anti-crypto sentiment

Our main discussion: More news on corporate bitcoin buying. NLW discusses:

Square’s Q4 and overall 2020 bitcoin performance in terms of revenue and profit
Square’s latest bitcoin purchase of ~3,300 BTC for $170 million
MicroStrategy’s latest >$1B bitcoin purchase, bringing the total to more than 90,000 BTC
Why these announcements are losing their power to move markets

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The Most Conservative Regulator in America Just Settled Its Case Against Tether: Can We Move On Now? Feb 24, 2021

On today’s episode, NLW breaks down the final settlement of the New York Attorney General’s case against Tether. He argues that the outcome is extremely positive for the industry, discussing:

Why Tether risk became a major source of FUD in 2021
How conspiracy theories overtook legitimate concerns
The history of the NYAG’s case against Tether
Specific findings of the NYAG’s case around two times that Tether was not backed 1-to-1 by U.S. dollars held in Tether bank accounts
Why there was never any accusation of Tether printing USDT out of thin air to manipulate markets
The specifics of the settlement
Why this conclusion clears risk from institutional investors

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Canada's Bitcoin ETF is Soaring: Is A US Bitcoin ETF Next? Feb 23, 2021

Today on the Brief:

Welcome back to the price rollercoaster
The latest from China’s digital yuan trial
A 3-week sprint to a stimulus package

Our main discussion: Canada’s first Bitcoin ETF.

NLW discusses:

ETF 101
Pros and cons of a bitcoin ETF
History of bitcoin ETF proposals
Early performance for Canada’s BTCC ETF
Implications for a US BTC ETF in 2021

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Should the US Federal Reserve Buy Bitcoin? Feb 21, 2021

On this week’s “Long Reads Sunday,” NLW reads Alex Treece’s recent essay “Why the US Needs Bitcoin.” The piece argues the U.S. will inevitably adopt bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, but by doing so sooner rather than later it can enjoy geopolitical advantages.

NLW follows with a discussion of his assessment of the prospects of a digital dollar backed by digital gold.

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'I Am Not a Cat': The GameStop Hearing Shows How Desperately a New Financial System Is Needed Feb 20, 2021

This week, instead of our normal Weekly Recap, NLW digs into Thursday’s congressional hearings around GameStop, Robinhood and WallStreetBets.

He explores:

Why there was a significant focus on T+2 settlement
Bipartisan agreement on retail investors getting screwed, but different diagnoses on how to address
Why Keith Gill, aka Roaring Kitty, aka DeepFuckingValue is a new American folk hero

Ultimately, NLW argues that any congressional action needs to make it easier for retail investors to be full participants in the market, rather than further limiting their options.

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Bitcoin Is Now a Trillion-Dollar Asset: Where Do We Go From Here? Feb 20, 2021

Bitcoin is officially a $1T asset. As the price surged over $54,000, the total market cap of bitcoin reached the new all-time high.

In this episode, NLW explores the significance of the milestone, arguing:

There has been a slate of good news, from BlackRock rumblings to Canadian ETFs that have been driving recent price action
There are a variety of institutions that couldn’t allocate to the space before because it was too small but which are now in play
In the wake of the milestone, we’re likely to see more research house FUD
We’re also likely to see a number of major bitcoin positions announced in the days to come

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How 2,000 Years of Monetary History Led Us to Bitcoin, Feat. Nik Bhatia Feb 19, 2021

Nik Bhatia is a financial researcher, a CFA charterholder and an Adjunct Professor of Finance and Business Economics at the University of Southern California Marshall School of Business.

Nik’s new book “Layered Money: From Gold and Dollars to Bitcoin and Central Bank Digital Currencies” puts the rise of bitcoin into a larger historical context - from the first coinage of Rome to the introduction of credit in Renaissance Florence to the beginnings of interest rate trading in Antwerp to the genesis of the central bank system that shapes money today.

In this conversation, he and NLW do a rapid tour across those two millennia of economic history, ultimately helping reframe what it means when we say that bitcoin is the new “digital gold.”

Find our guest on Twitter: @timevalueofbtc

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Coinbase Trades at a $77B Valuation as BTC Heads Towards a $1T Market Cap Feb 18, 2021

Today’s episode of “The Breakdown” analyzes a number of topics across the bitcoin and crypto industry, including:

Bitcoin reclaims $50,000 and looks towards a $1 trillion market cap
Treasury yields rise, hammering gold but so far having no impact on BTC
Bitwise launches a new DeFi index fund for accredited and institutional investors
Christie’s is auctioning off NFTs
Coinbase is trading at a $77 billion valuation on the private markets

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Is $50,000 BTC the Beginning of a Bitcoin Supercycle? Feb 16, 2021

Early this morning, bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $50,000. While the market quickly retraced, the psychological barrier was breached. On today’s episode, NLW explores what it means, including whether there is any technical value in the number and Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy’s new $600 million debt offering to buy more bitcoin.

He also explores Dan Held’s concept of a bitcoin supercycle, looking at the three pillars of the argument:

Perfect macro backdrop
Singular narrative
Availability and ease of use

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The Mainstream Media Narrative Shifts as Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley Come to Bitcoin Feb 16, 2021

Today on the Brief:

A follow-up on celebrity in crypto
Dapper Labs and BlockFi raising at multibillion dollar valuations
Cathie Wood and ARK increase their bitcoin position

Our main discussion looks at the latest institutional bitcoin news:

Deutsche Bank – the world’s 21st largest – quietly revealed a digital asset custody program with much bigger ambitions in a December 2020 World Economic Forum report
Bloomberg is reporting that Morgan Stanley’s $150B investment unit is considering a direct bitcoin position

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Why Comparing Bitcoin to Visa Doesn’t Make Any Sense Feb 14, 2021

This week’s “Long Reads Sunday” is a reading of Nic Carter’s latest essay for CoinDesk “What Bloomberg Gets Wrong About Bitcoin’s Climate Footprint.”

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Corporate Crypto Makes Government Bans Less Likely Feb 13, 2021

On this edition of the weekly recap, NLW breaks down the entrance of corporates into the crypto space this week, including:

Tesla
BNY Mellon
Mastercard
Twitter
Amazon

He also argues that more corporate actors investing in bitcoin and crypto makes it significantly less likely the U.S. government would look towards severe regulation.

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Why Jay-Z's Bitcoin Trust Matters Feb 13, 2021

On today’s episode, NLW breaks down:

The Miami Commissioners vote to start educating people about bitcoin and crypto
The Nigerian Senate debate following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s recent crypto ban
Why Jay-Z and Jack Dorsey’s bitcoin trust matters

NLW argues the relationship between the crypto industry and celebrities is very different this time around compared to the previous ICO-led bull market.

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Gradually, Then Suddenly: Mastercard, BNY Mellon, Amazon, Twitter Poised to Join the Bitcoin Party Feb 12, 2021

On today’s episode of The Breakdown, NLW looks at a slew of news from corporates getting into the bitcoin and crypto space, including:

Twitter CFO exploring bitcoin treasury holdings and payments to employees and vendors
Mastercard announcing crypto coming to payment rails in 2021
Amazon revealing its digital currency plans in a series of job posts
BNY Mellon, the world’s largest asset custodian, opening new digital asset business
Why Christine Lagarde says central banks won’t buy bitcoin anytime soon.

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How Nigeria and India Are Dealing With Crypto Bans Feb 11, 2021

On today’s episode, NLW examines two governments' attempts to restrict how their citizens interact with crypto. He breaks down:

India’s history with crypto bans
India’s history with demonetization and financial control
What we know about a new bill that would ban crypto and provide a framework for an Indian government digital currency
Recent action by the Central Bank of Nigeria to block banks from interacting with crypto
Why the CBN action might be related to the politics of the #EndSars movement.

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Will Apple Be the Next Fortune 500 to Buy Bitcoin? Feb 10, 2021

Today on the Brief:

A shifting inflation narrative
Reddit raises $250M and has a $6B valuation
Castle Island Ventures announces $50M fund II

Our main discussion: Might Apple by the next company to dive into bitcoin?

In the wake of Tesla’s surprise $1.5 billion bitcoin purchase announcement, many are wondering which Fortune 500 will be next.

According to a new report from the Royal Bank of Canada - the country’s largest bank with more than C$800 billion in assets - the best candidate may be Apple.

In this episode, NLW breaks down:

Why the RBC thinks Apple should build a crypto exchange
How a BTC treasury purchase could fund it
Why the crypto exchange space and the bitcoin treasury movement are both white-hot topics of discussion right now

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Elon Musk Buys Bitcoin: Everything You Need to Know About Tesla's $1.5B Purchase Feb 09, 2021

Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA) has purchased $1.5 billion in bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. Additionally, the company will soon be allowing people to pay for Teslas with bitcoin.

In this episode, NLW breaks down:

How Elon got to this moment, including his exchanges with MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) Michael Saylor
What critics of the Tesla community and the bitcoin community are likely to say
How this de-risks bitcoin purchases for other Fortune 500 companies
How it relates to Elon’s doge memeing
Why this is likely to have a significant impact on bitcoin’s narrative regarding climate change and energy use
Why Cathie Wood is laughing all the way to the bank.

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Wall Street Is ‘The Hunger Games’ With Suits Feb 07, 2021

On this edition of Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads Ben Hunt’s latest essay “Hunger Games” about the lies of Wall Street and how the GameStop episode has exposed them for all to see.

A Bitcoiner Is Now on the Senate Banking Committee Feb 06, 2021

On this edition of The Breakdown’s weekly recap, NLW discusses:

The state of WallStreetBets
The Bitcoin for Corporations event
ETH all-time highs in advance of CME ETH futures
Tether
Cynthia Lummis on the Senate Banking Committee

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Travis Kling: In the Fed Era, There’s No Such Thing as Market Fundamentals Feb 06, 2021

On today’s episode, NLW is joined by Travis Kling, co-founder and chief investment officer of Ikigai Asset Management. They discuss:

GameStop, WallStreetBets and financial populism
Whether regulatory hearings will actually address any issues around retail investors
How WallStreetBets relates to bitcoin
The rise of institutional investors
The end of career risk around bitcoin for investment professionals
Why recent bitcoin FUD has been disingenuous
How investors can price risk in bitcoin
Where DeFi fits for institutional investors

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What We Learned About PayPal's Crypto Strategy This Week Feb 05, 2021

Today on the Brief:

Elon Musk back to DOGE trolling
Bank of England says to prepare for negative interest rates
Janet Yellen on “Good Morning America” discussing retail investors

Our main discussion: What did we learn about PayPal’s crypto strategy from its quarterly earnings report?

In this episode, NLW breaks down:

How PayPal’s perspective on crypto evolved
What we learned about the success of its offering in Q4 2020
What’s next for crypto at PayPal in 2021
Why its biggest play is squarely focused on central bank digital currencies

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Michael Saylor’s Mission to Get 1,400 Corporations Into Bitcoin Feb 04, 2021

Today on the Brief:

An update on Ant and Jack Ma
Bezos stepping down as CEO of Amazon
Miami’s play to become a crypto hub

Our main discussion: MicroStrategy’s “Bitcoin for Corporations” event

Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy opened a new category of bitcoin investment last year when the company moved hundreds of millions of dollars of cash reserves into bitcoin.

For the next two days, the company is hosting a virtual conference designed to help the 1,400 corporate leader attendees discover the playbook that allowed them to make the dramatic move that has paid off so well.

In this episode, NLW examines the current state of institutional investment in crypto and asks what this event says about what might be coming next.

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Is This the End of the Reddit Retail Investor Dream? Feb 03, 2021

WallStreetBets is having a rough day. Its stocks are crashing. Champions from as recently as last week are selling out. More brokerage apps are turning off buying.

In this episode, NLW explores what it means for this set of assets and the larger shift in power from institutional to retail investors.

He argues, ultimately, that over the last year retail traders of the type led by WSB have established themselves as too powerful a force for the market to simply turn away from now.

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Have the Hedge Funds Infiltrated Reddit’s WallStreetBets? Feb 02, 2021

Today on the Brief:

Elon Musk talks bitcoin on Clubhouse
India trying to ban crypto?
DEXs have best month ever in January

Our main discussion: Has WallStreetBets been infiltrated by hedge funds?

Reddit community WallStreetBets became headline news last week when its short squeeze of GameStop (GME) nearly brought a famed hedge fund to its knees. According to Twitter personalities and the mainstream media, the community has now turned its focus to squeezing silver.

Except, one cursory look at the subreddit shows that isn’t the case. Instead, it is full of posts about how hedge funds and media are trying to promote the silver story to distract and divide the community.

In this episode, NLW tries to break down what’s happening and argues that now that WSB has become a market force, these sort of attempts to influence its conversation are going to become de rigeur.

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What Ray Dalio Really Thinks of Bitcoin Jan 31, 2021

Today’s “Long Reads Sunday” is a reading of Ray Dalio’s recent LinkedIn post, “What I Really Think of Bitcoin.” In his interpretation, NLW argues the post shows Dalio and Bridgewater are at the beginning of a deep dive into the space.

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GameStop, Robinhood and the Failure of Un-Free Markets Jan 30, 2021

In this edition of the Breakdown’s weekly recap, NLW looks at:

Robinhood’s ham-fisted explanations for why it shut down buying for GME and other stocks
Why the root cause seems to have been insolvency
How politicians are gearing up for political inquiries around the trading shutdowns
How WSB is reacting to the shutdown attempts

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In Retrospect, It Was Inevitable: Elon Musk Pumps Bitcoin to Space Jan 30, 2021

Last night, Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk changed his Twitter profile to a single word: “bitcoin.” He also tweeted a cryptic message: “In Retrospect, It Was Inevitable.”

The price of bitcoin surged in the wake of the tweet, as did Google searches for “bitcoin.” The price increases liquidated some $387 million in short positions.

In this episode, NLW breaks down the market reaction to Musk, the significance of the tweet and why it all connects to the larger story of WallStreetBets, Robinhood and shifting financial power.

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WallStreetBets Is Occupy Wall Street With Teeth Jan 29, 2021

This week, a collective of foul-mouthed internet memers took down some of Wall Street’s best-known hedge funds. In today’s episode, NLW looks at:

The historical context of how the Great Financial Crisis set the stage for WallStreetBets
How WSB gained infamy during the COVID-19 crisis by correctly predicting the market’s rebound while other investors remained bearish
Why WSB started going after short-sellers, particularly around GameStop (GME)
How WSB forced a short squeeze that required Melvin Capital to call in nearly $3B of emergency capital
Why Robinhood forcing users to stop buying GameStop and other related assets will go down as an inflection point in the history of capital markets

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Bitcoin Doesn't Care About Your Politics: Why Bitcoin Has More Ideological Flexibility Than We Think Jan 28, 2021

Falling down the proverbial bitcoin rabbit hole tends to lead people to ask deep questions about the nature of the economy and society. Today’s Breakdown guests are all professionally trained to ask those sorts of questions as philosophers.

NLW is joined by:

Andrew Bailey, Yale-NUS College @resistancemoney

Bradley Rettler, University of Wyoming @rettlerb

Craig Warmke, Northern Illinois University @craigwarmke

The three form a research collective called Resistance Money and are working on a book about bitcoin’s use helping individuals overcome infringement by states and other institutions.

On this episode they discuss bitcoin’s ideological flexibility and situate it in the context of the larger political landscape.

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‘The Four Wars We Could Fight With China,’ Feat. Kyle Bass Jan 27, 2021

In this episode, NLW speaks with Kyle Bass. Kyle is the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management, a hedge fund focused on global events. He is known for correctly predicting the subprime mortgage crisis, as well as for his outspoken and critical views on China.

In this episode, he and NLW discuss:

Contrarian investing
The larger macro landscape
Bitcoin and crypto
How the U.S.’ relationship with China changed under former President Donald Trump
How the relationship is likely to evolve under current President Joe Biden

Find our guest on Twitter: @Jkylebass

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The Bitcoin Whales Won’t Stop Buying Jan 26, 2021

Today’s grab-bag episode looks at five different topics:

Bitcoin whales kept accumulating during last week’s dip
Jim Cramer advises Powerball winner to put 5% in bitcoin
Previewing the first FOMC meeting of the Biden Administration
Earnings week on Wall Street looks good for Big Tech
An insider’s look at the state of crypto venture capital

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The Bitcoin Whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto Jan 24, 2021

For this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads the document that started it all - the Bitcoin White Paper. Interestingly, this document was released under an MIT open-source license, available free to all.

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Another Pro-Crypto Appointment in the Biden Administration? Jan 23, 2021

On this edition of the Weekly Recap, NLW argues that while bitcoin’s price was the short-term story of the week, the medium-term story was all about the transition of power in the U.S. to the new Biden Administration. In it, he discusses what the appointments (reported or confirmed) of Janet Yellen, Gary Gensler, Michael Barr and Chris Brummer suggest about the future of crypto policy.

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This Bitcoin Dip Was Not Caused by FUD Jan 23, 2021

Today on the Brief:

Home sales up, home supply down
Biden’s first test on the stimulus
Euro pessimism

Our main discussion: Why the bitcoin dip wasn’t caused by FUD.

Anyone paying attention this week had reasons for frenetic worry. Janet Yellen’s comments on criminal activity. Persistent questions around Tether. A non-story about a double-spend that got amplified by mainstream media.

In this episode, NLW argues that none of these actually explains the dip. Instead, he argues, they were used by sophisticated traders to amplify the dip’s impact.

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Why the World's Largest Asset Manager Is Getting Into Bitcoin Jan 22, 2021

Today on the Brief:

A new SPAC exchange-traded fund with bitcoin-experienced leadership
First look at Brian Brooks’ possible replacement at OCC
What to expect from institutional bitcoin price targets in the coming weeks

Our main discussion: BlackRock comes to bitcoin.

BlackRock filings with the SEC suggest two funds might buy bitcoin futures. In this episode, NLW looks at:

The signs leading up to BlackRock’s interest
Why BlackRock’s CIO thinks bitcoin will out-compete gold for millennial investors
How ARK ETFs are seeing startling fund flows, causing larger market FOMO around innovation

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Is Janet Yellen Bitcoin's Biggest Enemy or Greatest Asset? Yes Jan 21, 2021

Today on the Brief:

Jack Ma is not dead
The latest in crypto M&A
Deutsche Bank survey sites bitcoin as biggest bubble

Our main discussion: Yellen’s impact on bitcoin and digital assets

In this episode, NLW breaks down the cryptocurrency FUD competing to be the “wall of worry” for the new 2021 bull market, including Tether FUD, environmental FUD and the idea that crypto is only used for crime.

The illicit transactions idea was given new oxygen when Janet Yellen repeated it in her Senate confirmation hearing this week. New research from Chainalysis shows, however, that the percentage of crypto volume involved in crime is decreasing.

--

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Goldman Sachs Can No Longer Dismiss Bitcoin Jan 20, 2021

Today on the Brief:

Gary Gensler is officially Biden’s pick for SEC chairman
Investors are betting against the U.S. dollar
Grayscale has best day ever with $700 million in investment
Ethereum reaches new all-time high

Our main discussion: Goldman Sachs reportedly coming to crypto.

Over the last year, many traditional financial institutions have recanted previous skepticism to join the bitcoin space. For most of that time, Goldman Sachs has been a noticeable holdout, saying as recently as last May that bitcoin and cryptocurrency weren’t an asset class.

According to new reports from a Goldman insider, all that is finally changing as the bank prepares a crypto custody strategy. The change in attitude is inspired at least in part by the recent rulings from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

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Lyn Alden on Why the Dollar System No Longer Serves the US or the World Jan 19, 2021

This is an encore presentation of NLW’s first interview with macro analyst Lyn Alden, from May 2020. In it, they discuss:

Why we’re at the end of a strong dollar cycle
Why the Federal Reserve is terrified of the global dollar shortage
The difference in creditor vs. debtor nations
The concept of the Triffin dilemma
Why Japan has been able to print money without seeing rampant inflation
Why we have inflationary and deflationary forces competing to influence the U.S. economy
Why debt is going to matter more than ever
What alternatives to the USD system might look like

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‘America and Sound Money,’ the Most Important Bitcoin Essay of the Last Year Jan 17, 2021

This week’s Long Reads Sunday is a reading of the “Stone Ridge 2020 Shareholder Letter” by Ross Stevens, CEO and co-founder of Stone Ridge Asset Management, discussing the history of America, sound money and Stevens’ bitcoin “aha” moment.

Crashes, Rallies and Stimulus: A Normal Week for 2021 Bitcoin Jan 16, 2021

On “The Breakdown’s” Weekly Recap, NLW argues that this week is exemplary of a set of trends that will define 2021, including:

Market volatility
Macro tailwinds
Convergence of crypto and traditional finance
Regulatory battles and opportunities
Strange categories of FUD

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Will Mayor Suarez's Miami Be the First Major City to Buy Bitcoin? Jan 16, 2021

Today on the Brief:

Initial jobless claims grow the most since March
Biden unveils emergency relief plan
Fed Chair Powell discusses CBDCs and stablecoins

Our main discussion: Is Miami about to put 1% of its treasury into bitcoin?

Since December 2020 there has been a lot of conversation about whether Miami could become the next Silicon Valley, or at least recruit a big swath of entrepreneurial talent to set up shop.

In this episode, NLW looks at how that discussion moved into the crypto realm and led to Mayor Suarez’s recent discussions about moving Miami’s treasury into bitcoin. He argues that the story is about the larger shifts in how cities and geographic regions compete for supremacy in the social media, remote work era.

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The Definitive Breakdown of All Bitcoin FUD, With Dan Held Jan 15, 2021

On today’s episode of The Breakdown, NLW is joined by Dan Held, growth lead at Kraken and a serial bitcoin entrepreneur.

As the market heats up, so, too, does the number of articles and tweets spreading FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt). Some of the FUD is new, much of it is old and all of it deserves a response.

Dan and NLW break down 15 categories of FUD, including:

Bitcoin is for criminals
Bitcoin is backed by nothing/has no intrinsic value
Tether manipulation
Energy consumption
Government bans
And more!

Which are the most legitimate? Which are easily dismissed? Tune in to find out.

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @danheld

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A New SEC Chair Who Actually Understands Bitcoin and Crypto? Jan 14, 2021

Today on the Brief:

Visa drops $5.3B Plaid acquisition after DOJ antitrust suit
ECB President Christine Lagarde discusses bitcoin and digital euro
Acting OCC chief Brian Brooks to step down this week

Our main discussion: Gary Gensler rumored to be the new SEC Chair. In this episode, NLW discusses:

Gensler’s background at Goldman, CFTC and MIT
Gensler’s MIT course
Previous statements on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple
The crypto communities reaction to Gensler at the SEC

Is China Poised to Nationalize Alibaba? Jan 13, 2021

Today on the Brief:

Whales accumulated during yesterday’s crash
Kentucky legislators introduce bill to attract crypto miners
UBS lowers the threshold for charging savers because of negative interest rates

Our main discussion: What China’s prospective nationalization of Alibaba has to do with the nation’s digital currency efforts.

In this episode, NLW:

Gives a background on China’s digital currency project
Discusses why the DCEP is motivated by a larger attempt to internationalize the RMB
Background on Alipay, Ant Financial and Alibaba
How Alibaba founder Jack Ma annoyed the CCP and why he hasn’t been seen publicly in two months

-- Earn up to 12% APY on Bitcoin, Ethereum, USD, EUR, GBP, Stablecoins & more. Get started at nexo.io - A new era of innovation on Bitcoin has begun. Stacks 2.0 enables secure apps and smart contracts on Bitcoin, unlocking new use cases and value while laying the foundation for a user-owned internet. https://stacks.co. -- Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

Did This Bitcoin Cycle’s FUD Phase Just Begin? Jan 12, 2021

Today on the brief:

Trump ejected from social media
Bakkt confirms plans to go public via SPAC
NYDIG buys Digital Assets Data

Our main discussion: Are we at the beginning of a new FUD cycle?

In this episode, NLW looks at:

What happened with bitcoin’s big price crash
How the crypto community is reacting to the dip
New regulatory FUD out of the U.K.
Why regulatory issues are likely to be this bull market’s “wall of worry”

-- Earn up to 12% APY on Bitcoin, Ethereum, USD, EUR, GBP, Stablecoins & more. Get started at nexo.io - A new era of innovation on Bitcoin has begun. Stacks 2.0 enables secure apps and smart contracts on Bitcoin, unlocking new use cases and value while laying the foundation for a user-owned internet. https://stacks.co. -- Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

Why I Changed My Mind on Bitcoin Jan 10, 2021

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads two pieces from former bitcoin skeptics who have changed their mind about the asset.

“Bitcoin Crushes Doubters as 224% Rally Proves It’s Here to Stay” by Ed van der Walt

“Why I’ve Changed My Mind on Bitcoin” by Nick Maggiulli, COO of Ritholtz Wealth Management

-- Earn up to 12% APY on Bitcoin, Ethereum, USD, EUR, GBP, Stablecoins & more. Get started at nexo.io - A new era of innovation on Bitcoin has begun. Stacks 2.0 enables secure apps and smart contracts on Bitcoin, unlocking new use cases and value while laying the foundation for a user-owned internet. https://stacks.co. -- Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

Was This The Craziest Week in Bitcoin History? Jan 09, 2021

On this edition of The Breakdown’s weekly recap, NLW looks at what was one of the most spectacular and surprising weeks in bitcoin and crypto history. Specifically, he discusses:

Price action
Macro tailwinds
Regulatory shifts in surprise guidance from the OCC
Retail investor momentum building

-- Earn up to 12% APY on Bitcoin, Ethereum, USD, EUR, GBP, Stablecoins & more. Get started at nexo.io - A new era of innovation on Bitcoin has begun. Stacks 2.0 enables secure apps and smart contracts on Bitcoin, unlocking new use cases and value while laying the foundation for a user-owned internet. https://stacks.co. -- Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

BRRR: Biden Readies a New $3T Stimulus Package Jan 09, 2021

Today on the Brief:

U.S. loses 140,000 jobs in December
Chamath’s SoFi SPAC
A SPAC for Bakkt

Our main discussion: upcoming stimulus plans

As the dust (finally? sort of?) settles on elections that began last year, the Democrats are looking to jump right out of the gate with a new set of stimulus plans, including both payments to individuals as well as big infrastructure spending.

In this episode, NLW discusses the specifics we know so far, the potential challenges to get these plans passed and what the implications for bitcoin might be.

-- Earn up to 12% APY on Bitcoin, Ethereum, USD, EUR, GBP, Stablecoins & more. Get started at nexo.io - A new era of innovation on Bitcoin has begun. Stacks 2.0 enables secure apps and smart contracts on Bitcoin, unlocking new use cases and value while laying the foundation for a user-owned internet. https://stacks.co. -- Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

Can Bitcoin Just Keep Going Up? Jan 08, 2021

Today on the Brief:

U.S. President Trump signs order banning Chinese apps
Initial jobless claims hold steady at 787,000
Elon Musk becomes the world’s richest person

Our main discussion: Can bitcoin just keep going up?

In this episode, NLW breaks down:

What’s driving the rally, including the growth of institutional buyers, burgeoning retail FOMO, Asian markets and more
Why some indicators are pointing towards a trader move into altcoins
Why, despite the rapid growth, bitcoin remains undervalued

--

Earn up to 12% APY on Bitcoin, Ethereum, USD, EUR, GBP, Stablecoins & more. Get started at nexo.io

-

A new era of innovation on Bitcoin has begun. Stacks 2.0 enables secure apps and smart contracts on Bitcoin, unlocking new use cases and value while laying the foundation for a user-owned internet. https://stacks.co.

--

Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

What Georgia’s Elections Mean for Bitcoin Jan 07, 2021

Today on the Brief:

ShapeShift goes full DEX
Neil Young and the changing business of music
China stocks delisted from NYSE

Our main discussion: What are the implications of Georgia’s runoff elections for bitcoin and markets as a whole?

In this episode, NLW discusses:

The immediate response of Crypto Twitter to the victory for Dems
Why Kelly Loeffler was a disappointing industry rep in the Senate
Which stocks are going up on the news and why
Why a Democrat Senate majority is driving up inflation expectations
Why discussions of UBI and digital dollars and more in play than ever
Why bitcoin stands to be supercharged by the coming macro environment

Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

Most Important Crypto Regulation Yet? Banks Can Treat Public Blockchains Like SWIFT and ACH Jan 06, 2021

Yesterday, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released Interpretive Letter 1174. The letter allows banks to participate as nodes in “independent node verification networks” (which you might better know as blockchain networks) as well as use stablecoins for payments settlement.

In this episode of The Breakdown, NLW looks at:

Crypto Twitter’s response to the news
A review of key passages from the letter
The response of critics
The implications for CBDCs and the geopolitical battle between the U.S. dollar and China’s emerging digital currency

Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

Understanding Bitcoin's Blistering Rise Past $30,000 Jan 05, 2021

The end of December was a momentous time in bitcoin’s history. Not content to clear the psychological barrier of $20,000, bitcoin’s price smashed up almost all the way to $30,000, although it would take the turn to the new year to hit that new high-water mark.

In this episode, NLW looks at interpretations of why bitcoin is rising, why it dipped today and what analysts and investors think will happen next. This analysis includes:

Evidence of institutional FOMO including a rise in bitcoin whale addresses
Massive outflows from Coinbase Pro over the weekend
The impact of derivatives liquidations that occurred Monday morning
Commentary from OTC desks on Q1 2021 possibilities

The Unorthodox Trades That Will Drive Value in 2021, feat. Tony Greer Jan 03, 2021

Tony Greer is a macro analyst and author of the Morning Navigator Newsletter. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss how central banks continued to kick the can down the road on debt as well as unexpected sources of strength for the economy heading into 2021.

Find our guest online: @TgMacro

Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

Why Bitcoin Is Bigger Than an Inflation Hedge, feat. Dan Tapiero Jan 02, 2021

Dan Tapiero is an investor and entrepreneur with deep experience in gold and bitcoin. In this conversation with NLW he discusses the new group of institutional investors coming into the space and why, for them, bitcoin represents much more than just a hedge against possible future inflation.

Find our guest online: @DTAPCAP

Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

Bitcoin Is Digital Social Justice, feat. Tyrone Ross Jan 02, 2021

The wealth adviser and CEO of Onramp Invest discusses why the Federal Reserve continues to ignore its role in income inequality and what the bitcoin community can do to be a force for positive change.

Find our guest online: @TR401

Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

The Most Important Bitcoin Infrastructure Developments of 2020, feat. Alyse Killeen Jan 01, 2021

Alyse Killeen is the founder and managing partner of StillMark, and has been investing in bitcoin companies since 2013. While much of the conversation this year has been about high level narratives and new institutional investors, Alyse breaks down the technical advances that happened this year.

Find our guest online: @AlyseKilleen

Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

What 2020 Taught Us About the ‘Dollar Milkshake Theory,’ feat. Brent Johnson Dec 31, 2020

Brent Johnson is an investor at Santiago Capital and the creator of the well-known “Dollar Milkshake Theory.” In this conversation with NLW, he discusses what 2020 taught us about the state of the dollar around the world.

Find our guest online: @santiagoaufund

Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

The Devastation of Main Street Business, feat. Daniel Lacalle Dec 30, 2020

Daniel Lacalle is the chief economist for Tressis SV and a well-known economics personality. In this conversation with NLW he discusses the devastation of small businesses in America and around the world and why the recovery could be less even than people think in the year ahead.

Find our guest online: @dlacalle_IA

The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

Bitcoin, Bank Coins and Bonds, feat. George Goncalves Dec 29, 2020

George Goncalves has been a macro analyst specializing in bonds for more than 20 years. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss the story bonds are telling the market and why central bank digital currencies are likely to have an important part of the macro conversation in 2021.

Find our guest online: @bondstrategist

Sound Money vs. the Great Reset, feat. Mark Moss Dec 28, 2020

Mark Moss is the host of a fast-growing and popular YouTube channel covering economics, bitcoin and more. In this conversation, he discusses why gold, bitcoin and sound money have become even more important in the context of central bank printing gone wild.

Find our guest online: @1MarkMoss

The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

Central Banks Gone Wild! Feat. Bill Barhydt Dec 27, 2020

Bill Baryhdt is the CEO of Abra, a mobile crypto banking app. In this discussion with NLW, Bill talks about the year in bitcoin and why the mass expansion of central bank balance sheets was the most important economic story of the year.

Find our guest online: @billbarhydt

The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

The View on Bitcoin From Inside Fidelity Digital Assets, feat. Ria Bhutoria Dec 26, 2020

Ria Bhutoria is the director of research at Fidelity Digital Assets. In this conversation she gives listeners a look at how one of the most important institutional players in the space has viewed the evolution of bitcoin over the past year.

Find our guest online: @riabhutoria

The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

‘Bitcoin and Ethereum Have Gone Completely Separate Directions,’ Feat. Bully Esq. Dec 25, 2020

Bully Esquire is a Crypto Twitter personality, lawyer, founder of AlphaMarkets and host of the “Bully Esquire” podcast. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss what was good and bad about the DeFi boom of 2020 and more.

Find our guest online: @bullyesq

Why 2020 Unlocked a New Generation of Investors, feat. Jill Carlson Dec 24, 2020

No one would have expected an economic crisis to bring a new generation of investors to the table, but that's exactly what it did.

Hacking Humanity With Bitcoin, feat. Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert Dec 23, 2020

Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert are one of bitcoin's most dynamic duos, producing a variety of content, including the Orange Pill podcast. In this discussion with NLW, they talk about why this year was transformational in terms of how people view the aging economic system, and why 2021 is poised to mint even more new bitcoiners.

Find our guests online:

@maxkeiser

@stacyherbert

Raoul Pal on the Coming Transformation of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Dec 22, 2020

Raoul Pal is the founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision and one of the leading voices in modern macroeconomic discussions. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss bitcoin's monster 2020, how DeFi compares to ICOs, and why we should be paying more attention to central bank digital currencies.

Find our guest online: @RaoulGMI

The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

Why Bitcoin and Rehypothecation Don’t Mix Dec 20, 2020

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW starts with the latest essay by Jeffrey Snider, “A Nonsensical Jumble of Misused Words Requires Discussion” and then with Caitlin Long’s followup thread, putting the discussion of rehypothecation in the bitcoin context.

Preston Pysh on Why Currencies Fail [Encore] Dec 19, 2020

On March 12, as the U.S. government struggled to wrap its head around the emerging COVID-19 pandemic and markets floundered, bitcoin had one of its worst days in history, crashing by thousands of dollars and even hitting below $4,000 on some exchanges.

That evening, NLW and podcaster Preston Pysh recorded a conversation about bitcoin, central banks and what happens when currencies fail. Nine months later, the conversation is as salient as ever.

Find our guest online: @PrestonPysh

Balaji Srinivasan on Communist Capital vs. Woke Capital vs. Crypto Capital Dec 19, 2020

Balaji Srinivasan is an angel investor and entrepreneur, the former CTO of Coinbase, a former General Partner at Andressen Horowitz and more.

In this wide-ranging conversation with NLW, he discusses:

How networks are taking a power role once reserved for god and the state
Why pre-internet institutions will not survive the internet
Why bitcoin at $1 million is a global government
Woke capital vs. communist capital vs. crypto capital

The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

The CIO of $230B Guggenheim Just Called for $400,000 BTC Dec 18, 2020

With so much focus on bitcoin’s record-setting price run, a number of huge (and hugely bullish) stories have gotten comparatively short shrift. In this episode, NLW looks at:

Ruffer LLP’s $744 million bitcoin buy
Hedge Funder Alan Howard and One River’s $1 billion digital assets bet
Northern Trust getting into crypto custody
Guggenheim Partners’ CIO calling for $400,000 BTC
CoinDesk sister company Grayscale as the fastest-growing asset manager in history?

The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

Why $20,000 Bitcoin Matters Dec 16, 2020

After weeks of flirting with all-time highs, bitcoin has broken through the most significant psychological barrier: $20,000.

In today’s episode of The Breakdown, NLW looks at why the moment is so significant, arguing:

Bitcoin is an incentive design system where price drives more benefits than financial gain
The validation of retail traders and more recent institutional investors creates an even stronger group of evangelists
The psychological price barrier is likely to increase FOMO among those on the sidelines

The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

Will Wall Street Ruin Bitcoin? Featuring Ben Hunt and Alex Gladstein Dec 16, 2020

Ben Hunt is the founder of Second Foundation Partners and lead author of Epsilon Theory. Alex Gladstein is the chief strategy officer at the Human Rights Foundation.

In this conversation, they discuss one of the most important burgeoning topics of the year: In a world where bitcoin goes mainstream with traditional financial institutions, can it keep its more renegade spirit? More important, can it keep its more renegade features such as permissionless access and censorship resistance?

Ben and Alex join for a good faith, spirited discussion of whether the bitcoin we know today will be preserved or whether it is doomed to be co-opted by the financial powers that be.

Find our guests on social:

Ben: @EpsilonTheory

Alex: @Gladstein

The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

JPMorgan Discusses $600B in Potential New Bitcoin Demand Dec 15, 2020

Today on the Brief:

First COVID-19 vaccines roll out in the U.S.
Are IPOs the new ICOs?
U.S. Treasury and other federal departments hacked

Our main discussion: A massive new category of bitcoin demand?

Last week, when MassMutual announced its $100 million buy, NLW explored whether it would be the beginning of a trend for other insurance companies. A recent note from JPMorgan analysts suggests that even a 1% allocation by that category of company in major markets in the U.S., Europe and Japan could represent $600 billion of new demand.

NLW also discusses recent comments from long-term institutional bitcoin and crypto bulls including Chamath Palihapitiya and Abigail Johnson.

The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

How Much Debt Can a Country Handle? Dec 13, 2020

This week’s edition of Long Reads Sunday is a reading of “How Much Debt Is Too Much?” by Raghuram Rajan on Project Syndicate.

In it, the author explores the shifting conventional wisdom on national debt and worries that countries may reach their limit far earlier than they think.

The Bitcoin Banking Battle Heats Up Dec 12, 2020

On this edition of the weekly recap, NLW looks at the brewing battle to be the bitcoin and crypto bank of the future. He looks at three stories reporting banks getting into crypto (BBVA, Standard Chartered and DBS) as well as crypto companies applying to become banks. Finally, he examines why this is happening right now, and what are the true stakes of the game.

Why a Massive 169-Year-Old Insurance Company Just Bought $100M in Bitcoin Dec 12, 2020

Today on the Brief:

FDA panel recommends Pfizer vaccine approval as initial jobless claims soar
Antitrust lawsuit calls for Facebook breakup
Crypto-friendly CFTC chairman to resign at the beginning of the year

Our main discussion: Why MassMutual bought $100 million in bitcoin and why it matters.

In this episode, NLW looks at recent news that MassMutual had purchased $100 million in bitcoin for its general account, as well as made a $5 million minority investment in $2.3 billion asset manager NYDIG, which helped facilitate the bitcoin purchase. He discusses why insurance company purchases are different than other institutional buyers like MicroStrategy, and why this might be the beginning of a more significant industry trend.

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce on a Bitcoin ETF, Custody Rules and What's Next for the SEC Dec 11, 2020

Hester Peirce is a commissioner at the Securities Exchange Commission, sworn in for her second term in August.

Sometimes referred to as “Crypto Mom,” Peirce has been a fierce advocate for the industry in a regulatory context that hasn’t always been on her side.

In this conversation, she and NLW discuss:

Why the SEC’s approach on crypto has been too slow and too ambiguous
Why it matters that FinHub is becoming a standalone office
The prospect for a regulatory “safe harbor” for crypto
What the SEC thinks of the OCC’s crypto custody guidance
The prospect for a bitcoin ETF

The Most Important Trends and People Shaping Crypto 2020, With Ryan Selkis Dec 10, 2020

What were the most important trends? Who were the most important people? Was it the year of Bitcoin Macro, the year of DeFi or both?

Ryan Selkis is the founder and CEO of Messari. Each year he puts together a massive “Crypto Theses” report that looks at the year that was and the year to come.

On this episode, he and NLW discuss the highlights of Selkis’ 2020 report, including:

The top 10 people in crypto 2020
The bifurcation of bitcoin and ethereum
How DeFi was and wasn’t like ICOs in 2017
Why regulatory battles loom

MicroStrategy Is Raising Another $400M to Buy BTC Dec 09, 2020

Today on the Brief:

BBVA set to offer crypto trading and custody
Wells Fargo discusses bitcoin in recent investor memo
Square launches Bitcoin Clean Energy Initiative with $10 million

Our main discussion: Michael Saylor is back at it.

The CEO of MicroStrategy and Giga Chad himself announced MicroStrategy would be offering $400 million in convertible bonds with the intent to purchase more bitcoin.

On this episode, NLW looks at the community’s reaction, including the comparison of MSTR stock to a BTC exchange-traded fund. He also discusses Saylor’s recent comments about censorship resistance as a reminder of the (potentially) divergent values of bitcoin retail HODLers and institutional investors.

China's Latest Digital Currency Trial Is Its Most Important Yet Dec 08, 2020

Today on the Brief:

COVID-19 vs. Stimulus
Small hedge funds outperform large brethren
Equities now worth 115% of global GDP

Our main discussion: Why the newest trial of China’s central bank digital currency is its most important trial yet.

In this episode, NLW discusses:

The significance of the “Double 12” shopping festival
How the participant merchants have changed
Comparison of the size of the lottery
Changes in public interest
Why it matters to the crypto industry

Niall Ferguson on Why Bitcoin and China Are Winning the Monetary Revolution Dec 06, 2020

On today’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads Niall Ferguson’s latest Op-Ed for Bloomberg: “Bitcoin Is Winning the COVID-19 Monetary Revolution”

In it, Ferguson argues that bitcoin’s sovereignty and “built-in scarcity in a virtual world characterized by boundless abundance” are driving its adoption.

He also argues that rather than adopt a China-style central bank digital currency, incoming President Joe Biden should look to integrate bitcoin into the U.S. economic system.

$50K BTC in 2021? Bloomberg Analysts Join the 'Traditional Onslaught' Driving Bitcoin's Rally Dec 05, 2020

On this edition of the weekly recap, NLW looks at the consolidating narrative of a bitcoin rally that is:

Being driven by institutional investors
Shifting the center of the industry from East Asia to North America
Winning converts from major research houses and institutions
Driving the price of bitcoin to new all-time highs

A ‘Santa Claus Rally’ for the Stock Market? Dec 05, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Payrolls report underperforms expectations
Spotify looking for crypto director
Lame-duck crypto legislation on the way?

Our main discussion: Will we see a “Santa Claus rally” this year?

This kind of rally refers to the fact that in about two-thirds of years since 1969, late December has seen a stock market rally, averaging a 1.4% gain.

This year, vaccine optimism combined with new stimulus seems poised to once again jingle Wall Street’s bells. A piece in Bloomberg, however, provides five charts and reasons why this market rally is already overbought and overblown, so this year might be more coal than eggnog.

Why Stablecoins Are the First Battleground of the Coming Crypto Regulation Wars Dec 04, 2020

On Wednesday, three U.S. congressional Democrats announced the STABLE Act, an 18-page bill that would require, among other things, stablecoin issuers to acquire banking charters, get approval from the Federal Reserve and hold FDIC insurance.

The bill’s authors claim stablecoins represent a continuation of the shadow banking system that preys on poor communities. The crypto industry argues this overly burdensome would not only stifle innovation but ensure the only players in this new space are the deep-pocketed fintechs with the resources for compliance.

In today’s episode, NLW argues this is more than just another bill that will go nowhere in Congress, it’s the opening salvo of a new set of arguments that will define the next face of regulatory battles for the entire crypto industry.

Josh Brown on Bitcoin’s ‘Respectability Rally’ and Why We’ll See Dow 100,000 in Our Lifetime Dec 03, 2020

Josh Brown is the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. He is also the host of “The Halftime Report” on CNBC, author of the “Reformed Broker” blog and host of “The Compound Show” podcast.

Most recently, he is the author of “How I Invest My Money: Finance Experts Reveal How They Save, Spend, and Invest.”

In this fun and freewheeling conversation, Josh and NLW discuss:

Why financial advisers give a lot of advice but don’t actually share their personal strategies
What’s driving bitcoin’s “respectability rally” (Read more here)
Why we should be excited about, rather than worried for, the new generation of Robinhood traders
Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average is going to 100,000 in our lifetime

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @reformedbroker

Why a $631B Asset Manager Just Changed Its Mind on Bitcoin Dec 02, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Libra is now “Diem”
Christine Lagarde comes down on private stablecoins
Dow closes its best month in 33 years

Our main discussion: AllianceBernstein changes its mind.

Yesterday, CoinDesk received access to a private client research report from AllianceBernstein, a global investment giant with more than $631 billion in assets.

In this episode of the Breakdown, NLW reads excerpts from the memo and discusses:

Why, in discussing supply, it conflates bitcoin and other cryptos but still finds limited supply “for all practical purposes”
Why prevailing macro political conditions – particularly the growth of government’s role in business and individual lives – shifted the investment firm’s calculus
Why its greatest long-term concern is government banning something that is actively hindering the application of monetary policy

Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High: What Happens Next? Dec 01, 2020

On this historic day, NLW looks at bitcoin’s punching through its previous December 2017 all-time high. Specifically, he looks at:

How different people benchmark the all-time high
What drove the latest price action, including the prospect of new investment from institutional asset management giant Guggenheim
Why historian Niall Ferguson is arguing bitcoin has won the COVID-19 monetary revolution
Why macro giants including Raoul Pal, George Gammon and Ben Hunt got into disagreements with Bitcoin Twitter about how co-opted by the state and Wall Street bitcoin is likely to become

How Bitcoin Gets to $100,000 Nov 29, 2020

On this edition of The Breakdown’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads a recent piece by Hong Fang, CEO of OKCoin.

In it, Fang provides a set of valuation models and scenarios that plausibly lead to bitcoin achieving a significant $100,000 value over the course of 2021.

What Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary Means for Bitcoin and Markets Nov 28, 2020

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at what was an absolutely action-packed holiday week.

He discusses:

Bitcoin’s price action
The Dow’s 30,000 psychological milestone
Eth 2.0 cleared for Beacon chain launch
The implications of Janet Yellen’s nomination for Treasury secretary

ENCORE: Luke Gromen on the History and (Declining) Future of the Global Dollar System Nov 27, 2020

One of the most significant macroeconomic questions facing the world is what the future of the global reserve system, dominated for the last 80 years by the U.S. dollar, holds.

Today’s episode is a replay of NLW’s epic conversation with macro analyst Luke Gromen from April 2020. In it, Luke discusses the entire history of that U.S. dollar system, including:

Bretton Woods and why the world went on a USD-based system rather than John Maynard Keynes’ idea for a non-sovereign “bancor” world reserve currency
The move to the petrodollar in the 1970s
The financialization of commodities that started in the 1980s
The monetary policy vacuum after the Cold War ended
How a shift in executive compensation rules led to many of today’s problems with Wall Street
The export of Treasury bills as a business model
The economic fallout of 2008 globally and domestically
The end of Treasury bill buying in 2014
Why the Federal Reserve is the only sugar daddy left

Find our guest online:Website: fftt-llc.comTwitter: @LukeGromen

Schmuck Insurance: Chamath Palihapitiya's Prescient 2013 Argument for Bitcoin Nov 26, 2020

When NLW asked Crypto Twitter for recommendations of the best way to convince friends and family about bitcoin and crypto, one of the ideas was to review old articles that have stood the test of time.

With that in mind, NLW today reads Chamath Palihapitiya’s May 2013 piece for Bloomberg, “Why I Invested In Bitcoin.”

Even among prescient early pieces, this one is particularly salient.

The Most Bullish Bitcoin Arguments for Your Thanksgiving Table Nov 26, 2020

Today’s Breakdown is a prep kit for the inevitable conversations about bitcoin as friends and family sit down at the Thanksgiving table this year.

NLW discusses arguments ranging from price action to who is buying to why they’re buying to good old-fashioned supply and demand. He leaves with one big conclusion:

If there was ever a year to discuss bitcoin, this is it.

Lyn Alden on Money Printing, Bitcoin and the End of an 80-Year Debt Cycle Nov 25, 2020

Today’s guest is Lyn Alden. Lyn is the founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy and one of today’s best-known and most-respected macro analysts. In this conversation, she and NLW discuss:

Anti-deflation vs. inflation
Why money printing is nonpartisan
Why we’re headed for deeper MMT experiments
How she increased her conviction around Bitcoin (her journey in memes)
Why the beginnings of a new, post-Bretton Woods era are starting to show

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @LynAldenContact

Website: lynalden.com

A Bitcoin Shortage? PayPal and Cash App Buying More Than 100% of New Supply Nov 24, 2020

Today on the Brief:

AstraZeneca and University of Oxford release third positive COVID-19 vaccine trial data
Trump administration ratchets up pressure on China
Another DCEP lottery trial coming

Our main discussion: a narrative shift, growing attention and a bitcoin shortage.

What happens when demand exceeds supply and supply is being gobbled up aggressively by new market actors? That’s the question posed by Pantera’s recent investor letter and today’s Breakdown episode.

NLW also looks at:

The reappearance of bitcoin (BTC, +1.08%) in mainstream media, like today’s Wall Street Journal
The rise of celebrities coming out as HODLers
BlackRock’s CIO suggests bitcoin could replace gold for many

Bitcoin ETF Time? What SEC Chairman Jay Clayton Stepping Down Means for Markets Nov 22, 2020

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads Joe Nocera’s recent Op-Ed “Clayton’s Exit at SEC Opens Door to Protect Investors” from Bloomberg.

NLW expands upon the piece, discussing Clayton’s legacy in crypto and how a Biden economic team might impact the space.

What Do Mexico's Second Wealthiest Billionaire and Arya Stark Have In Common? Nov 21, 2020

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW discusses:

Traditional markets: The tension between vaccine optimism and a growing national wave of economy-disrupting lockdowns
Regulatory landscape: Crypto ally Brian Brooks nominated for full term at OCC while SEC Chair Jay Clayton steps down early
Bitcoin Miners: Sold out until Spring
Celebrities and Financiers coming to the Bitcoin space

https://twitter.com/Maisie_Williams/status/1328428879334297600

https://twitter.com/RicardoBSalinas/status/1328850136290775041

10 Metrics Where Bitcoin Has Already Hit New All-Time Highs Nov 21, 2020

Earlier this week, investor Nic Carter published a piece called “Nine Bitcoin Charts Already at All-Time Highs” showing just how far bitcoin had come and how fundamentally bullish this quiet run-up was.

In this piece, NLW goes over those metrics that have achieved all-time highs, and adds one more that happened after Nic published his piece. The metrics include:

Addresses with a balance of $10 or more
Open interest on CME bitcoin futures
Realized capitalization
Bitcoin options open interest
Bitcoin priced in Turkish lira
Bitcoin held by Grayscale
Stablecoin free float
Silvergate’s settlement network
Growth of crypto-native credit
Market Capitalization

A Crypto Ally as Top US Bank Regulator? Nov 20, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Markets fight to remain optimistic
Jobless claims rise for the first time in five weeks
China borrows at negative rates for the first time

Our main discussion: a crypto ally as top bank regulator?

Brian Brooks was an executive at Coinbase when he was tapped by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to be the number two at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the nation’s main bank regulator. Within two months he was acting Comptroller and now Brooks has been nominated for a full term.

In his short tenure, he has given banks the OK to provide custody of crypto and banking services to stablecoin issuers. In so doing, he has aroused the ire of congressional Democrats, who have accused him of acting too quickly and unilaterally on crypto.

In this discussion, NLW breaks down Brooks’ time at the OCC and asks whether he’s likely to be confirmed before the next administration early next year.

Vijay Boyapati’s Four Mental Models for Valuing Bitcoin Nov 19, 2020

Vijay Boyapati’s “The Bullish Case for Bitcoin” is one of the most influential articles in the history of the industry – even being assigned reading from MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor as he tried to convince his board on the merits of what would become its big bitcoin move.

In this conversation with NLW, Vijay discusses his recent thinking around four valuation frameworks that help us understand 1) how people see bitcoin’s upside potential and 2) the likely values they suggest for bitcoin. We also discuss why state-level attacks are Vijay’s biggest concern for bitcoin’s future.

HODL FOMO vs. Speculative FOMO: Why This Bull Market Will Be Different Nov 18, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Tesla to join S&P 500
Airbnb files for IPO
The Mooch wants crypto

Our main discussion: HODL FOMO vs. Speculative FOMO.

The 2017-2018 bull run was driven by ICO mania and a relentless get-richism that was nothing if not short-term. As bitcoin passes $17,000 and questions of looming all-time highs start to make their way into mainstream press, it is a very new set of actors and a new set of thinking that is driving this movement.

Bitcoin at $318,000 Next December? One Citibank Exec Says It’s Possible Nov 17, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Moderna trial success drives markets up
New all-time high in negative-yielding debt
Jay Clayton to leave SEC

Our main discussion: BTC $318,000 in December 2021?

That’s the prediction of one Citibank exec in a report called “Bitcoin: 21st Century Gold” sent last week to institutional clients. In this episode, NLW breaks down the report, including the macro justification that sets the stage as well as the technical analysis that led to these numbers. Ultimately, he argues that what matters isn’t the report’s predictions, but the fact that its very existence suggests a shifting narrative for institutional buyers.

Dollar Decline and the Paralysis of Conventional Monetary Policy Nov 15, 2020

On this week’s edition of Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads former IMF chief and current Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff’s latest Op-Ed, “The Calm Before the Exchange Rate Storm” in Project Syndicate.

Dalio Says Governments Will Kill Bitcoin. Is He Right? Nov 14, 2020

On this edition of the weekly recap, NLW looks at bitcoin’s surge past $16,000. Additionally, he explores some recent FUD from Ray Dalio, which NLW argues seems strangely locked in years-old narratives.

PayPal Rolls Out Crypto for All US Customers Nov 14, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Christine Lagarde’s digital euro hunch
Deutsche Bank CBDC note
COVID-19 resurgent

Our main discussion:

PayPal is rolling out crypto to all its users and increasing transaction limits from $10,000 to $20,000. In this episode, NLW breaks down the community response to the news, including an interesting discussion of whether the company’s BitLicense requires PayPal to hold 1:1 all the BTC its customers pay for.

Meet the $10B Asset Manager With a 10,000 BTC Treasury, feat. NYDIG’s Robby Gutmann Nov 13, 2020

Robby Gutmann is the co-founder of Stone Ridge Holdings Group, a $10 billion alternative asset manager and co-founder and CEO of NYDIG, the group’s bitcoin subsidiary.

In this first-ever podcast conversation, Gutmann discusses:

Buying his first bitcoin from Craigslist in 2010
The personal and professional experiences that drove his team to bitcoin
Why bitcoin fits the firm's founding principle of financial security for all
A set of key trends driving institutional investors and fiduciaries/asset managers into the bitcoin space
Why the coming year is poised for even more aggressive expansion of the investor market for bitcoin

Discovering Bitcoin Through the #EndSARS Movement, Feat. Yele Bademosi & Akin Sawyerr Nov 12, 2020

Yele Bademosi is CEO at Bundle social payments app and the founder of investment firm microtraction. Akin Sawyerr is involved across the industry and leads operations at BarnBridge.

Over the course of October 2020, the world’s attention became firmly fixed on a growing movement in Nigeria. With the hashtag #EndSARS, the movement was, on the one hand, about addressing police brutality. On the other hand, as our guests discuss, it was a broader awakening and a demand for generational economic opportunity. At one point, even Twitter founder Jack Dorsey called for people to donate bitcoin to help the movement.

In this conversation, Yele and Akin discuss:

The state of the economy in Nigeria leading into the protests
Generational differences in political action
Why the #EndSARS protests exploded into action in October
Why the movement turned to bitcoin to avoid bank confiscation
How crypto can play a role in a brighter future

Find our guests online:

Yele Bademosi - twitter.com/YeleBademosi

Akin Sawyerr - twitter.com/AkinSawyerr

Legendary Investor Stan Druckenmiller Turns Bitcoin Bull Nov 11, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Was Monday’s stock rally overdone?
Lebanon to launch digital currency
3 reasons BTC has rallied 60%+ in two months

Our main discussion: Stan Druckenmiller, Bitcoin Bull.

A few months ago, Stan Druckenmiller told CNBC that he could imagine inflation of 5%–10%. Yesterday, he returned to the network to discuss why bitcoin had captured his attention as a potential hedge.

"The Biggest Macro Event Since March” Nov 10, 2020

Today on the Brief:

GRIN gets 51% attacked
Crypto trading volume down 25.8% in October
How the market is receiving Joe Biden

Our main discussion: The stock market soars on promising Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trials.

The S&P 500 and DJIA hit new all-time highs after Pfizer announced its experimental vaccine had prevented COVID-19 in 90% of patients. Travel stocks soared, work from home stocks suffered and safe havens fell. In this episode, NLW explores the shifting market sentiment, as well as what it means for bitcoin.

Why Emerging Markets Are Wary of Modern Monetary Theory Nov 08, 2020

Today’s Long Reads Sunday is a reading of Andy Mukherjee’s piece: “Why Emerging Markets Are Wary of a Modern Monetary Fix”.

The argument is that while Western governments debate just how far we can take the idea of money printing without paying a dubious price, for emerging-market governments there simply isn’t the same capacity to print their way out of problems.

How a Massive Devaluation of the Egyptian Pound Inspired a $100M Bitcoin ETP Nov 07, 2020

Hany Rashwan is the CEO of Amun/21Shares, the creator of a variety of publicly traded crypto products with over $100 million assets under management.

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

How he was introduced to bitcoin by Tim Draper in 2012
How the Egyptian revolution and challenges that followed influenced his thinking
How a 48% overnight devaluation of the Egyptian pound created the “aha” moment around bitcoin
How bitcoin could become the global reserve currency

Find our guest online:

Twitter: twitter.com/hany

Website: 21shares.com

How the World Stopped Producing Enough Money, Feat. Emil Kalinowski Nov 07, 2020

Emil Kalinowski is the host of “Making Sense/Eurodollar University” collaborations with Jeff Snider.

In this illuminating conversation, he and NLW discuss:

How the global monetary order changed over the last 50 years
The exact moment the world demonstrated it had too little money
Why bitcoin and MMT are competing to shape the next generation of monetary thinking
Why a big crash is coming, but we’ll be better on the other side

Bitcoin Hits $15,000: Here Comes the FOMO Nov 06, 2020

As the U.S. election picture starts to become more clear, bitcoin has smashed through $15,000 – its highest price since 2017’s record-breaking run. Alongside the price action has come a wave of mainstream media coverage.

In this special he-was-supposed-to-be-on-vacation episode, NLW breaks down Twitter’s response and shares interpretations, including:

“Quietest bull run ever”
Stimulus on the way
Halving bull redemption
Death of the nation-state
Start of a reflexive cycle
It feels real

‘Economics Will No Longer Be the Handmaiden of Politics’: A History of the Cypherpunks Nov 05, 2020

Jim Epstein is the executive editor of Reason TV and podcasts, and the producer of the recent documentary “Cypherpunks Write Code.”

In this conversation, he gives NLW a behind the scenes look on the interviews and conversations that went into the documentary, including how the cypherpunks started, schisms in the movement, and how the movement lives on today.

Watch “Cypherpunks Write Code”

Find Jim online:

twitter.com/jimepstein

A (Not Quite) Complete History of Money, Feat. Planet Money’s Jacob Goldstein Nov 04, 2020

Jacob Goldstein is one of the hosts of NPR’s Planet Money. He is also the author of the new book, “Money: A True Story of a Made Up Thing.”

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

How China invented paper money and then forgot about it for centuries
Why the invention of the lightbulb was a pivotal money history moment
How money market funds set the stage for the Great Financial Crisis
Where bitcoin fits in the world that comes next: without cash, without banks and with government printing

Find our guest online:

Twitter: twitter.com/jacobgoldstein

Who Is Better for Bitcoin, Trump or Biden? Nov 03, 2020

Today on the Brief:

The digital euro is closer than ever
Checking in on European COVID-19 lockdowns
Economic events this week that aren’t the election

Our main discussion: Which U.S. election outcome is better for bitcoin?

Poll: https://twitter.com/nlw/status/1320884275110137863

After a surprisingly close Twitter poll with more than 1,600 respondents answering the question “Is Trump or Biden better for bitcoin?”, NLW breaks down the most common themes, including:

The Senate matters more
Anti-encryption history
And of course… Honey Badger Don’t Care

By the Numbers: More Bitcoin Bulls Than Ever Before Nov 01, 2020

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW diverts from our normal opinion and long-form essay to pursue Grayscale’s recent investor reports. In its survey of investors, Grayscale found more interest in bitcoin investing than ever before, with a significant amount of the growth in interest being driven by economic and monetary policy following the coronavirus pandemic.

scribd.com/document/481729535/Grayscale-2020-Bitcoin-Investor-Study

The World Is Never Getting Off Government Stimulus Oct 31, 2020

On this week’s weekly recap, NLW looks at:

Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of a week where many investors went risk off, causing a drop in stocks and gold
JPMorgan’s dramatic three-year attitude shift around bitcoin and crypto
Iran stockpiling bitcoin to be able to pay for imports
A new round of COVID-19 lockdowns and the stimulus that will follow

Why Satoshi Chose Halloween to Release the Bitcoin White Paper Oct 31, 2020

One of the most powerful aspects of bitcoin is its mythology.

In this episode, NLW explores the 12th anniversary of the Bitcoin white paper and the choices that went into its release date.

Whether it was something to do with the Reformation or an allusion to the longstanding pagan tradition of Samhain, the one thing that’s clear is the choice adds all the more mystique to bitcoin’s incredible origins.

Mirage Recovery: What ‘Record’ GDP Growth Tells Us About the Economy Oct 30, 2020

Today on the Brief:

FTX launches equities trading
Avanti gets Wyoming bank charter
France locks down and ECB intimates new stimulus

Our main discussion: GDP growth report

The Department of Commerce released its Q3 GDP numbers. Touted as record growth, this is actually a much more complicated story. In this episode, NLW breaks down what the numbers tell us and what they don’t, and why we should be more focused on understanding long-term consumer behavior shifts than short-term numbers.

The ‘Everything Crash’ Is Coming? Markets Go Risk-Off as European Stocks See Worst Day in 5 Months Oct 29, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Section 230 hearing with social media CEOs in Washington D.C.
Bitwise now has more than $100 million AUM
Trump website defaced with Monero request

Our main discussion: Markets go risk-off.

With rising fear of COVID-19 lockdowns, everything from stocks to oil to gold and, yes, even bitcoin is down on the day. The important question is whether this is a short-term volatility phenomenon or part of a larger systemic shift.

JPMorgan Launches JPM Coin: Welcome to the Private Currency Era Oct 28, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Stocks down; bitcoin up
Consumer confidence shaky as baking supplies demand grows 3,400%
Bank for International Settlements and Swiss central bank to test CBDC this year

Our main discussion: JPM Coin.

Initially announced in February 2019, JPMorgan’s JPM Coin is being launched for commercial use. In this episode, NLW looks at:

The history of private currencies in the U.S.
Why Libra was a starting gun for both governments and other private corporations
How JPMorgan intends to make money from JPM Coin
Why other investment banks might follow

Hedge Funds Failures, Bankruptcies and Pandemic Fatigue Oct 27, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Turkey’s real inflation rate 3x official number
Hot new DeFi protocol Harvest Financial hacked
Bitcoin whales hit largest number since 2016

Our main conversation is about the rise of a new wave of COVID-19 and the economic fallout we’re still trying to address. NLW discusses why we’re starting this next wave more emotionally drained, politically divided and economically fragile than we were in March.

Should We Care if the US Is Falling Behind on CBDCs? Oct 25, 2020

For this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads two selections from CoinDesk’s op-ed section:

CBDCs Are Evolution, not Revolution - Benoit Coeure

The US Risks Getting Left Behind on CBDCs - JP Schnapper-Casteras & Misha Guttentag

Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Paul Tudor Jones: A Bet on Bitcoin Is a Bet on Human Ingenuity Oct 24, 2020

On this week’s Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at:

The initial price action that started the week
Debates about whether BTC was thriving at the expense of alts and DeFi
The PayPal news
News of more public companies putting treasury reserves into BTC
Paul Tudor Jones’ optimistic take on the human ingenuity driving bitcoin’s success

Why Fiat is Failing in 2020: Argentina, Turkey, Brazil Oct 24, 2020

Today on the Brief:

DOJ crypto enforcement a “disaster” for privacy
Ant’s blockchain tools pre-IPO
Better news around jobless claims

Our main discussion: fiat failures, 2020 edition.

In this episode, NLW looks at a raft of geographies in which bitcoin has recently reached all-time highs, priced in the local currency. The story, he says, is about fiats floundering more than mispriced local bitcoin.

Special focus on economic happenings in Brazil, Argentina and Turkey.

Monopoly is Un-American: Matt Stoller on Google Antitrust Oct 23, 2020

Matt Stoller works with the American Economic Liberties Project and is the author of “Goliath: The 100-Year War Between Monopoly Power and Democracy” as well as the popular Substack newsletter “BIG.”

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss the history of American antitrust sentiment and politics including:

The origins of antitrust sentiment
How the “Watergate Babies” generation of Democrats turned away from antitrust sentiment
How the 1990s shifted power in favor of corporates and tech
Why the 2008-2009 crisis was a seminal moment in our attitudes towards big finance
The significance of the new antitrust case against Google

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @matthewstoller

Web: mattstoller.com

PayPal Adds Bitcoin: Most Bullish News of the Year? Oct 21, 2020

Huge news broke this morning as PayPal announced it would be offering buying, selling and eventually merchant payments for bitcoin and other cryptos across its network.

In this late-breaking Breakdown episode, NLW explores:

The specifics of the news
Why the scale, precedent and normalization are hugely bullish
What some skeptics are saying
Why it’s significant PayPal is focused on the coming central bank digital currency era

How Strong Is Bitcoin’s Push Above $12,000? Oct 21, 2020

Today on the Brief:

DOJ files biggest antitrust case in two decades against Google
Goldman Sachs’ 1MDB settlement
LINE’s new CBDC platform

Our main discussion: bulls vs. bears as bitcoin passes $12K

Someone recently tweeted, “Bitcoin price has never been this high with such bearish sentiment.”

On this episode, NLW looks at the bullish case (growth in open interest on CME backed by strong macro narrative around stimulus) and bearish case ($12K sell wall and bleeding from alts and DeFi).

A New ‘Bretton Woods’ Moment? Oct 20, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Chinese citizens less than impressed with DCEP trial
Is Filecoin the “Titanic” of ICOs?
Mnuchin, Pelosi go one more round on stimulus

Our main discussion: A new Bretton Woods moment?

In a recent speech, the International Monetary Fund argued that the time to fundamentally re-evaluate the global economic order is here. Goldbugs see the potential to return to the gold standard, bitcoiners anticipate ever-growing stimulus and macro observers are betting on massive disruptions in the wake of central bank digital currencies.

How Stocks, Bitcoin and Other Investments Fare in a 0% Interest Rate World Oct 18, 2020

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads: “Capital Allocation & Risk Asset Ramifications in a 0% Interest Rate World”

The piece examines how different asset classes – from stocks to bonds to bitcoin and beyond – fare in the context of a world where the Federal Reserve is determined to keep interest rates at or near zero for years to come.

Blockchain is a National Security Issue, According to Trump Admin Oct 17, 2020

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at:

Growth in the institutional investment space in crypto
A new 10,000 BTC treasury announcement
Reports from the Bank for International Settlements, G20, WEF, IMF and more around central bank digital currencies
A National Security Council report labeling distributed ledger technology key for national security

RAC on the First Truly Free Markets for Music and Culture Oct 17, 2020

Today’s Breakdown is a conversation with Andre Anjos – aka RAC, a Grammy Award-winning recording artist and music entrepreneur. He and NLW discuss:

Starting the “Remix Artist Collective” as a business
Evolving from remixing to performing artist
The challenges and trade-offs of working with major labels
How the music industry beat back technology innovation where other industries failed
How NFTs, tokens and other crypto innovations are opening up truly free markets for music and culture

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @RAC

Web: rac.fm

Is Crypto Converging With Public Markets? Oct 16, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Initial jobless claims rise to highest level since August
BTC as a DeFi reserve asset
Twitter reactions as Filecoin goes live

Our main discussion focuses on the convergence of the crypto and public markets. NLW looks at:

Narratives of bitcoin’s correlations to stocks
Growing overlap of retail and institutional traders
SPACs and public crypto companies
Bitcoin treasuries
Geopolitical intrigue around ANT Financial

A $10B Firm Makes Bitcoin Its Primary Treasury Asset Oct 15, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Bitcoin hashrate at all-time highs
Record number of large companies lose money during the pandemic
JPMorgan releases research note on bitcoin

Our main discussion: Stone Ridge Holdings Group discloses $114 million in bitcoin treasury assets.

NLW digs into what Stone Ridge is, why it spun off New York Digital Investments Group (NYDIG) and how the company has quietly built itself into a serious player in the institutional crypto asset space.

The IMF, G20 and BIS Gear Up for the Central Bank Digital Currency Era Oct 14, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Is the “blue wave” Democrat victory narrative in the presidential election starting to shake up Wall Street?
Johnson & Johnson pause COVID-19 vaccine trial
1000 Satoshi-era bitcoins are on the move

Our main discussion: The world’s central banks are moving quickly on digital currencies. NLW looks at a slew of recent news showing how much of a priority CBDCs are becoming:

A report from the Bank for International Settlements and seven other central banks setting design principles for CBDCs
A G20 regulatory standards framework
A forthcoming OECD tax reporting framework

One need only look at the increasingly speedy rollout of China’s DCEP to understand why this has become a major priority for central banks everywhere.

What the Stock Market is Predicting Around the Elections Oct 13, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Market rally to highest point in six weeks
BTC and ETH up in part on Grayscale ETH trust becoming an SEC reporting company (Grayscale, like CoinDesk, is a unit of DCG.)
CBDCs (and CBDC skepticism) on the rise

Our main discussion: How markets are trading the U.S. presidential election in November.

A look at what different stock and other market preferences suggests about who Wall Street expects to win, including:

Energy
Private prisons
Student loans
Health care
Infrastructure
Dollar
Bitcoin

Is Bitcoin More Correlated to Stocks or Gold? Oct 11, 2020

Today on Long Reads Sunday, a reading of Lyn Alden’s piece for CoinDesk: “Bitcoin Correlations Depend on What Phase It Is In”

In it, Lyn argues that bitcoin’s correlation patterns are, in part, reliant on where bitcoin finds itself in its own cycles of expansion or consolidation.

A Regulatory Reckoning for the Crypto Industry? Oct 10, 2020

On this week’s Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at a cross-section of regulatory news, including:

CFTC and DOJ action against BitMEX and its leadership
The U.K. Financial Conduct Authority’s ban of crypto derivative products for retail investors
The DOJ’s new cryptocurrency enforcement framework

NLW discusses why these might reflect a new moment in crypto history, what it means for current builders in bitcoin and DeFi, and why recruiting corporate allies like Square will become more important than ever.

Cathie Wood: Secrets of the World’s Best Innovation Investor Oct 10, 2020

Forbes called her “the newest superstar investor,” and it’s not hard to see why.

Cathie Wood is radically disrupting the way money is allocated. Fighting the rise of passive – what she calls the “greatest misallocation of resources in history” – Wood’s funds are actively managed exchange-traded funds that give investors exposure to public companies in key areas of innovation.

In this conversation, NLW and Wood discuss:

Why she had conviction in Tesla before the market caught up
Why her fund offered the first bitcoin investment opportunities to Wall Street
Why it doesn’t hire traditional Wall Street analysts
Why it gives away all research for free
Why it shares the trades made in a completely open-source way
ARK’s recent Bitcoin Investment Thesis white paper
What the prospects are for innovation in 2021

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @CathieDWood
Web: ark-invest.com

The Market Reacts to Square’s $50M Bitcoin Buy Oct 08, 2020

A special breaking edition of The Breakdown follows the market’s reaction to Square’s surprise $50 million bitcoin investment.

NLW breaks down the foundations for the investment, including:

2020’s alignment between the bitcoin narrative and structural economic realities
An increase in bitcoin’s perceived resilience
The precedent set by MicroStrategy

He also discusses the market’s reaction, from the (potential) connection to Coinbase’s “apolitical” stance from last week to the notion of Square intentionally setting a framework others can follow.

Why Bitcoin Will Become the Reserve Asset for DeFi, Feat. Qiao Wang Oct 08, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Stimulus talk shutdown spooks markets
House recommends antitrust actions but likely to get nowhere
CBDC trial results from China

Our main discussion is with trader and entrepreneur Qiao Wang. In this conversation, NLW and Qiao discuss:

Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of a barrage of bad news
Why DeFi is a natural next step from the foundation bitcoin has built
How bitcoin could end up the reserve asset for DeFi
Why regulation is the greatest threat to the space

The UK Bans Bitcoin & Crypto Derivatives Oct 07, 2020

Today on the Brief:

John McAfee arrested in Spain
BTC addresses added spikes to two-year high
A new election-market narrative emerges

Our main discussion: The U.K. has banned crypto derivatives.

Just days after the U.S. announced significant action involving BitMEX, the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority has made its own move to stop crypto derivatives.

In this episode, NLW breaks down what actually happened, and looks at the reactions from the crypto industry including:

Accusations of hypocrisy
Skepticism of enforceability
Why it might actually be good for bitcoin

Are Central Bank Coins the End of Financial Privacy? Oct 06, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Markets gain as Pres. Trump’s condition stabilizes
SEC Chairman Clayton sees future where all stocks are tokenized
Uniswap had more volume than Coinbase in September

Our main discussion: central bank coins and financial privacy.

The EU recently released a new research paper on a possible digital euro. Like many other official central bank reports, it assumes there is no possibility of an anonymous digital bank currency. NLW dissects arguments from people including JP Koning and CoinCenter’s Jerry Brito on why this shouldn’t be true.

Inflation Is the Cruelest Tax Oct 04, 2020

Today’s Long Reads Sunday selection is “How To Avoid Paying the Cruelest Tax: Inflation” from the Wall Street Journal.

NLW argues the piece reflects a changing conversation in mainstream financial circles about the possibility of inflation on the other side of new Federal Reserve policy.

“The Fed Meetings Are a Dead Spectator Sport” Best of The Breakdown September 2020 Oct 03, 2020

A recap of September, which NLW calls a transitional month between the post-lockdown excitement of the summer and the growing macro insecurity around second wave fears and election volatility.

Featuring some of the most interesting insights from our guests, including:

Luke Gromen on the four options for countries that can’t pay their debts
Tavi Costa on the Fed’s new “mandate” to keep asset prices high
Raoul Pal on why “monetary policy is over”
Sven Henrich on the ever-weakening economic cycle
Corey Hoffstein on the fundamental supply-demand mismatch that exacerbates exogenous shocks
Michael Saylor on why he moved his company’s cash reserves to bitcoin

“Good Reason to Worry” What the BitMEX Indictment Means for DeFi and Bitcoin Oct 03, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Market reaction to Pres.Trump contracting COVID-19
Subpar September jobs report
Decentralized exchanges have third straight 100%+ growth month

Our main discussion features Stephen Palley and Preston Byrne of Anderson Kill.

Yesterday, BitMEX was targeted with both civil and criminal complaints, with the CTO being arrested for violation of the Bank Secrecy Act.

In this conversation, NLW talks to two crypto legal experts to discuss:

The specifics of the charges
How long this investigation has been in the works
Whether there was anything surprising to legal experts
Why the criminal complaints represent an escalation of enforcement
Whether there are implications for other industry areas, particularly decentralized finance

Find our guests online:

Stephen Palley: @stephendpalley

Preston Byrne: @prestonjbyrne

Anderson Kill: andersonkill.com

'Stocks Only Go Up' and Other Ignorable Investment Advice Oct 02, 2020

When popular finance writer Morgan Housel asked followers on Twitter to share the commonly held investing beliefs they most disagreed with, the internet responded with vigor.

A thousand or so replies later, NLW ranks the top 10 investing ideas we should be questioning, including:

Ignoring compounding interest in our 20s
Buying homes rather than renting
The idea US Treasury bonds are risk-free

Listen to hear the full list.

DeFi Summer; Bitcoin Fall Oct 01, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Coinbase offers severance to employees who want to leave over new politics policy
Long-term job cuts hamper any idea of V-shaped recovery
Last chance for a stimulus package before the U.S. presidential election

Our main discussion is a narrative shift from DeFi back to bitcoin.

Over the summer, DeFi led the crypto charge. From growth in total value locked to narrative dominance to even leadership in the all important category of crypto drama, DeFi was it.

Now, as a potentially turbulent macro environment rears its head, the narrative is shifting back to a focus on bitcoin.

Coinbase’s New Policy: Anti-Woke or Just A Joke? Sep 30, 2020

Monday, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong published the innocuously titled “Coinbase Is a Mission-Driven Company.”

While the post talked a lot about Coinbase’s core mission, its real goal seemed to be to make clear Coinbase would not be engaging with any other social or political issues beyond that, and to the extent employees wanted to do so they needed to do it on their own time.

The reactions were intense, immediate and in many instances, totally opposite.

In this episode, NLW breaks down the entire social media reaction and the arguments for and against this policy.

So Now They’re Hacking DeFi Protocols Before They’ve Even Launched? Sep 30, 2020

DeFi is one of the breakout crypto categories of 2020. Indeed, yield farming and the grand game of “money legos” has been so profitable that many are following every new protocol with rapt attention.

This is all the more true for projects graced by YFI creator Andre Cronje. So when word got out about a new, pre-release game economy engine called “Eminence,” the DeFi degens took advantage of the permissionless nature of DeFi to pump $16 million or so into EMN.

What happened next was arguably the first pre-release hack in DeFi’s history. This episode breaks down what happened and what it means for the fledgling field.

Why Bitcoin's Longest Run Above $10,000 Matters Sep 29, 2020

Today on the Brief:

After four weeks down, bitcoin bounces back on suspicions that recent bearishness was overblown
KuCoin exchange gets hacked for somewhere between $150 million and $280 million
Jack Dorsey outlines Twitter’s blockchain and bitcoin beliefs during Oslo Freedom Forum appearance

Our main discussion: Digging in to bitcoin’s 64-day run over $10,000

Bitcoin has been above $10,000 for longer than any time in its history. Its volatility is also at recent historic lows. In this episode, NLW puts this in the context of broader market movements and explains why new price floors are self-reinforcing.

Understanding the Coming Currency Cold War Sep 27, 2020

This week’s Long Reads Sunday is a reading of “The Currency Cold War: Four Scenarios” by Jeff Wilsner – part of CoinDesk’s Internet 2030 series.

In it, Wilsner talks to experts about four scenarios:

A multi-currency scenario, where exchange is abstracted away via digital wallets
A China-led scenario
A U.S.-led scenario
A bitcoin/non-state currency-led scenario

In addition to reading, NLW gives his take on which scenario is most likely.

Why the Stock Market is Poised for Its Worst September Since 2011 Sep 26, 2020

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at the fourth painful week for traditional markets in a row.

He discusses the factors contributing to the trouble, including:

A normal correction from too-high valuations
The return of COVID-19 lockdowns
The end of easy recovery gains
Diminishing likelihood of a stimulus bill
Election volatility

Sven Henrich (NorthmanTrader) on the Ever-Weakening Economic Cycle Sep 26, 2020

Sven Henrich is the founder and lead market strategist at NorthmanTrader. Well known for his appearances on CNBC, CNN Business and MarketWatch, Sven is also the host of the Straight Talk podcast.

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

The ever-weakening economic cycle
Why the Fed has boxed itself in
Why the asset price bubble is contributing to wealth inequality
How market capitalization-to-GDP reached all-time highs
What the election means for markets

Find our guest online:

Twitter: NorthmanTrader

Website: northmantrader.com

Did Corporate Insiders Perfectly Predict the Market Top? Sep 25, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Initial U.S. jobless claims up to 870,000
Partial lockdowns begin in earnest in Europe and Israel
The global demand for American stocks

Our main discussion: Did corporate insiders perfectly time the market top?

August saw the largest volume of insider selling since 2015, with more than 1000 corporate officers offloading $6.7B in stock. Subsequently, the market has seen a 10% decline since the S&P500 all time high of Sept. 2. What’s more, according to new statistics, insider selling is happening at the fastest pace since 2012.

The question is: What do these executives know that the rest of the market doesn’t?

Violent Reflexivity: Why Market Movements Are More Aggressive Than Ever, Feat. Corey Hoffstein Sep 24, 2020

Corey Hoffstein is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Newfound Research LLC, a quantitative research and investment fund. He is also the host of the “Flirting with Models” podcast.

His most recent research is “Liquidity Cascades: The Coordinated Risk of Uncoordinated Market Participants.”

In it, he examines three popular narratives about what is driving radical swings in markets, including:

The increased role of the Fed
The rise of passive and index investing
The growth of volatility-correlated strategies

He finds that, individually, none could explain the radical market shifts we’ve seen. However, when combined, they create a market incentive loop that is causing markets to move and react to exogenous shocks more quickly and aggressively than ever before.

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @choffstein

Website: Newfound Research

Marty Bent on Why Bitcoin and Big Energy Are Unlikely Allies Sep 23, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Where the digital euro fits in Lagarde’s economic integration plans
New stablecoin guidance from the OCC
Mnuchin and Powell head to the Hill

Our main discussion features Marty Bent.

Marty is the author of one of the best known daily bitcoin newsletters, as well as the host of “Tales From The Crypt” podcast. He also is one of the leaders of Great American Mining, a new project using bitcoin mining to make big energy more efficient and profitable.

In this discussion, we talk about how bitcoin and big energy are unlikely allies, how that alliance can bring more bitcoin mining back to America, and how it is working to reduce America’s energy dependence.

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @MartyBent

Twitter: @GAMdotAI

Website: https://gam.ai

The FinCEN Files Show Banks Don’t Actually Care About Stopping Money Laundering Sep 22, 2020

Today on the Brief

Stocks down, dollar up on COVID-19 resurgence fears
People’s Bank of China says digital yuan needed to fight USD dominance
140,000 have claimed UNI tokens
Judge stops Trump WeChat ban
Nikola founder resigns

Our main discussion: The FinCEN Files

The FinCEN Files are a leaked cache of suspicious activity reports filed by banks with the U.S .Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. The more than 2,000 files, representing $2 trillion in transactions, were leaked to BuzzFeed News more than a year ago. BuzzFeed, in turn, shared them with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, who then helped distribute them to 108 publications in 88 countries.

This episode provides an overview of the leaks and explains why they show that, despite lots of PR bluster, banks are happy to file their reports and then keep on banking likely money launderers.

Lyn Alden’s Latest: Why Currency Devaluation Is Inevitable Sep 20, 2020

On this week’s “Long Reads Sunday,” NLW reads macro analyst Lyn Alden’s latest: “A Century of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Inflation vs Deflation”

The article looks at:

When monetary policy is effective versus when fiscal policy needs to take over
How short-term debt cycles add up to long-term debt cycles that have very different remedies
Why long-term debt cycles inevitably end in default or devaluation
Why the conclusion of the last long-term debt cycle in the U.S. – the 1930s and 1940s – suggests that devaluation is the most likely outcome

Why the First US Crypto Bank Is a Big Deal Sep 19, 2020

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at:

DEXetition – Uniswap’s battle with SushiSwap heats up as the former dropped the UNI governance token in what some likened to a crypto stimulus check
The Fed has no clothes – After another FOMC meeting of “nothing new,” the mirage of Federal Reserve omnipotence is fading
TikTok and WeChat banned from U.S. app stores – Is it just a negotiating technique? Whatever the case, people are not happy
Kraken becomes a bank – What it means now that Kraken has been approved for a Wyoming Special Purpose Depository Institution charter

‘I Didn’t Buy It to Sell It. Ever.’ MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor on His $425 Million Bitcoin Bet Sep 19, 2020

MicroStrategy made waves when it announced in early August it was moving $500,000,000 in treasury reserves out of cash. At least $250 million were to be moved into bitcoin.

Earlier this week, the company announced its final bitcoin purchases totaled $425 million.

In this conversation with NLW, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor explains:

Why he’s always treated the company with a long time horizon
Why the asset inflation rate is the real inflation rate
How he became convinced that bitcoin is the best treasury asset in the world
Why Michael believes some other companies will follow suit, but better do so quick
Why the intensity of maximalists is actually part of the reason he grew conviction around the asset
Why he would buy every bitcoin if he could

Raoul Pal: Monetary Policy Is Finished and Macro Debates Are Boring Sep 18, 2020

Raoul Pal is CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, a platform fundamentally disrupting macroeconomics and financial media.

In this wide-ranging conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Hot takes on the most recent Jerome Powell/Federal Reserve press conference
Why central banks can’t do anything more until they merge with treasury departments
Why stablecoins are disrupting how we think about global reserve assets
Why traditional financial media missed an entire generation of investors
Why all macro debates are boring

Governments vs. Networks: The Battle for the Soul of Finance Sep 17, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Kraken is the first crypto exchange to become a U.S. bank
FTC preparing antitrust lawsuit against Facebook
Gold-standard fan Judy Shelton doesn’t have the votes to be confirmed as Federal Reserve governor

Our main discussion: The battle for the soul of finance.

In this episode, NLW looks at the power competition between governments on the one hand and the decentralized network-driven finance alternatives that would reshape that power. Interestingly, in this competition corporations may play a role that benefits both sides at different times and in different ways.

The Decade of the Living Dead: How Zombie Companies Are Robbing Tomorrow’s Economy Sep 16, 2020

Today on the Brief:

MicroStrategy increases its bitcoin reserves by $175 million
The Oracle-TikTok deal starts to smell fishy
The SEC is investigating claims of fraud involving Nikola Corp.

Our main discussion: The rise of zombie firms.

A zombie firm is a company that can’t afford to service its debt from operating income. These companies are made possible by artificially low interest rates, and they drain resources from the economy.

On today’s episode, NLW explains:

Why there are more zombie companies than ever
The negative impact they have on the economy
How they could drive a new financial crisis

The Business of Geopolitical Competition Sep 15, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Crypto exchange volume sees highest month-over-month increase since February 2018
Uniswap overtakes SushiSwap in total value locked
What Coinbase vs. Apple means for the future of decentralized applications

Our main discussion: NLW looks at the business of geopolitical competition, including:

TikTok, Oracle and the new politics of deal making in the “new Cold War”
“Mulan” controversy around Uyghurs and Hong Kong police support
The real motivation for China’s digital currency

Is Being the ‘Saudi Arabia of Money’ Good for America? Sep 13, 2020

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW looks at recent statistics suggesting that, based on a comprehensive set of measures of well-being, U.S. citizens are worse off than they were a decade ago.

One potential explanation is the U.S.’ “USD Dutch Disease” - a peculiar set of consequences resulting from the role of the U.S. dollar in the world.

This week’s reading is “How to Diagnose Your Own Dutch Disease” from the Financial Times.

The Raw, Savage Capitalism of Open-Source Competition Sep 12, 2020

On this edition of the Breakdown Weekly Recap, NLW looks at:

The “holding pattern economy” – why stocks, jobs and central bank policy seem stuck in place
Why Joe Biden’s China plan shows that, no matter who wins the presidential election, U.S. economic policy towards China is likely to get more aggressive
The surveillance state gets stronger as Amazon appoints a former NSA head to its board of directors
The SUSHI saga and why there’s no capitalism more savage than the competition in open source networks

‘As Toppy as It Gets’: Metals, Bitcoin and Fiat’s Race to the Bottom, Feat. Tavi Costa Sep 12, 2020

Tavi Costa is a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital. In this conversation with NLW, he discusses:

The credit exhaustion moment in the engines of global growth
The race to the bottom for fiat currencies
The explosive moment for precious metals
Where bitcoin might fit in this larger framework

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @TaviCosta

Instagram: @TaviCostaMacro

Website: https://www.crescat.net

How Monetary Policy Undermined American Resilience Sep 11, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Jobless claims slightly exceed expectations at 884,000
ECB keeps policy unchained; euro rises versus dollar
Survey: What’s the right way to understand the business and market cycle in the U.S. today?

Our main discussion: interest rates and the undermining of American resilience.

In this discussion, NLW looks at a number of artifacts of the low interest rate world, including:

Increasing cost of child care
Declining share of total net worth held by bottom 50%
New startups using lottery tactics to incentivize savers

‘Absolute Raging Mania’: Famed Investor Druckenmiller Thinks 10% Inflation Is Possible Sep 10, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Markets recover slightly but vaccine trade falters as AstraZeneca pauses trials
Bitcoin and gold correlation increases sharply around dollar instability
Mastercard launches simulation tools to help develop central bank digital currencies

Our main discussion: Stan Druckenmiller speaks!

NLW breaks down the famed investor’s interview with CNBC today, including:

The merging of the Fed and the Treasury
Mania in financial assets
A growing fear of future inflation
Why the next three to five years are going to be extremely difficult

Why Bitcoin Investors Aren’t Worried About This Price Pullback Sep 09, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Stock market continues its descent
Insider stock selling reached five-year high in August
President Trump promises more aggressive decoupling from China

Our main discussion: Investors and the BTC price dip.

Over the last several weeks, bitcoin has pulled back from $12,400 to around $10,000. This dip has happened alongside a broader retracement in equities, led by falling tech stocks.

While some have levied correlation to equities as a failure of bitcoin, NLW argues this critique misunderstands the narrative that has driven accumulation from new holders over the last six months.

Sorry, Uncle Sam, We’re Entering the Era of Private Money Sep 07, 2020

On this special Labor Day edition of The Breakdown, NLW is doing a reading of Nic Carter’s most recent essay “The Crypto-Dollar Surge and the American Opportunity.”

In it, Carter argues that rather than fight the tide, the U.S. government should accept and take advantage of its unique position in the emerging world of global crypto monies.

A Practical Utopian’s Guide to the Coming Collapse Sep 06, 2020

Earlier this week, news broke that David Graeber, author of influential works such as “Debt: The First 5000 Years,” had passed away.

In his memory, today’s Long Reads Sunday is a reading of his 2013 piece “A Practical Utopian’s Guide to the Coming Collapse.”

In it, he argues the impact of the revolutionary period of the 1960s was much more profound than popular opinion has it, and that the age of revolution is far from complete.

Is Tesla a Stock for Suckers? Sep 05, 2020

On this episode of The Breakdown Weekly Recap, NLW looks at the full story the stock markets are telling us about the economy, including:

SoftBank unmasked as the “Nasdaq whale” playing the same options game with stocks as r/WallStreetBets
The Tesla stock split game: Does this just mean it’s for n00bs and rubes?
The VIX shows November nervousness
Can you hear it? As stocks slide, the money printer is revving again

8 Historical Analogies That Help Explain the Madness of 2020 Sep 05, 2020

Inspired by Michael Batnik’s “All Wrapped In One,” this episode examines eight moments from history that can help us make sense of one of the most chaotic years of our lives.

Income inequality of the Gilded Age
The election of 1896
The pandemic of 1918
The economy of 1929
The social movements of the 1960s
The stock market of 1987
The speculation of 1999
The housing market of 2006

DeFi Degens Are Crypto’s Suicide Squad Sep 04, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Traditional markets falter, led down by tech stocks
Bitcoin falls under $11,000 for the first time since July
Stablecoins mint $100m daily since mid-July

Our main discussion is about DeFi’s “degens.” NLW talks about:

The numbers behind DeFi’s recent run up
What “degen” means in this context
Why degen is in part a reaction to previous bitcoiner critiques of Ethereum
Why degen is (in even bigger part) a reaction to a no-yield, artificially low interest world

Let Them Eat Equities! The Economic Chickens Come Home to Roost, Feat. Luke Gromen Sep 03, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Debt will exceed U.S. GDP for the first time since 1946
SPACs in action!
Decentralized exchange volume flippens centralized exchanges

Our main conversation is with Luke Gromen, founder of the Forest for the Trees consulting firm.

In this conversation, we discuss:

Chairman Powell’s speech and whether this is a true policy departure
The evolving relationship between the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department
What it would mean to get China to start “footing the bill”
The gold narrative
Why stock price gains are unlikely to keep U.S. citizens satisfied with the economy for long

Find our guest online:Website: fftt-llc.comTwitter: @LukeGromen

Financial Postmodernism and the Great Inflation Debate Sep 02, 2020

August has come to a close. In this recap and “best of” episode, NLW looks at the big themes that defined the month. Most notable was the discussion of inflation culminating in the Federal Reserve’s newly announced policy of average inflation targeting.

This episode featured commentary from:

Tony Greer - Author, Morning Navigator
Keith McCullough - CEO, Hedgeye
Chris McCann - General Partner, Race Capital
Adam Tooze - Chair of History, Columbia University
George Selgin - Director at the Cato Institute Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives
Hugh Hendry - Legend

US Stock Market Cap to GDP Reaches 190%, Eclipsing Dotcom Bubble High Sep 01, 2020

Today’s episode of The Breakdown looks at the stories the stock market is trying to tell, including:

New all time high in total market capitalization to GDP ratio (higher than dotcom bubble)
“No precedent for how high” valuations can go
Fed denies asset bubble; intimates it wouldn’t care about asset bubbles if full unemployment comes with it
Bezos at $200,000,000,000
Percentage of stocks traded by individuals reaches all time high of 20%
Robinhood leads in FTX complaints
Buffett’s Japan trading firm bet

The Case for $500,000 Bitcoin Aug 30, 2020

This week’s episode of Long Reads Sunday is a reading of the latest essay from Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss.

The essay looks systematically at the problems of the slate of current store-of-value assets, including the U.S. dollar, oil and gold.

The brothers argue why those assets have, or are starting to have, value in their safe haven function, while bitcoin is on the rise.

The End of an Era? Why Bitcoin and MMT Won the Week Aug 29, 2020

On The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap, NLW looks at the shifting sands of the global economy. He says Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole this week was an argument that an era that began in the 1970s is now closing.

At the same time, he argues Powell did very little to provide a vision for what comes next. Instead, it is the alternative economic philosophies – Modern Monetary Theory on the one side, bitcoin on the other – that are attracting people for a different vision of the future.

The Anxiety Index: 4 Fear Factors Shaping the Economy Aug 29, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Skepticism around Powell’s inflation prognostications
The Tesla Stock Split Game
China’s COVID-19 vaccine maker presses countries for early adoption

Our main discussion: The Anxiety Index

We live in an economy organized around consumption and perpetual growth. In that context, factors that cause consumers to be fearful, reduce spending, increase savings, move less and generally slow down can wreak havoc.

In this episode, NLW discusses four factors shaping and driving consumer anxiety, including:

COVID-19 related concerns, both health and economic
Monetary policy questions
U.S.-China tensions
Election insecurity

Everything You Need to Know About Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Speech Aug 28, 2020

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke Thursday at the annual Jackson Hole conference convened by the Kansas City Fed, which was virtual this year due to COVID-19.

In the highly anticipated speech, Powell laid out a number of key changes to how the Fed approaches unemployment and inflation.

In this recap, NLW looks at how people reacted to the speech. On the one hand, there is disagreement between those who anticipate out of control inflation and those who think the Fed’s track record on achieving even modest inflation is abysmal. On the other, almost everyone seems to think the Fed appears run down, out of tools and increasingly looking to support from Congress.

The Battle to Get A Dictator’s Seized Millions to 62,000 Venezuelan Health Care Workers Aug 27, 2020

Today on the Brief

The SEC changes accredited investor rules
Fintech and crypto investor Ribbit Capital starts $350 million SPAC
Previewing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

Our main conversation is with Ruben Galindo, CEO and co-founder of Airtm.

Airtm is a global dollar account that lets users anywhere access U.S. dollars, powered by cryptocurrency infrastructure and a P2P network.

The company is currently working with Juan Guaido’s opposition government in Venezeula to attempt to distribute $18 million in funds the U.S. seized from the Maduro dictatorship.

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

How Airtm works outside of the traditional banking system
Why people around the world are hungry for access to dollars
What the Health Heroes campaign is trying to achieve
How Guaido and Airtm are trying to work around the Maduro government’s attempt to suppress them

Find our guest online:Website: airtm.comTwitter: @theairtm

An Unintended Consequence of Low Interest Rates? The Big Get Bigger Aug 26, 2020

Today’s episode of The Breakdown is an extended edition of the Brief.

NLW discusses:

The “COVID-19 vaccine trade” on Wall Street kicks markets higher
The latest on TikTok vs. the U.S. and what it means for the U.S.-China relationship
More companies move reserves from cash to bitcoin

The final topic today looks at news that some large money market funds are shifting fees from users and taking the financial hit themselves. This creates a dynamic where only the largest companies can survive long term, and reflects a key unintended consequence of low interest rates.

How Much Should We Fear Post-Crisis Debt or Inflation? Feat. Adam Tooze Aug 25, 2020

Our guest today is Adam Tooze. Adam holds the Shelby Cullom Davis Chair of History at Columbia University and serves as director of its European Institute. He is known for his books “The Deluge: The Great War, America and the Remaking of the Global Order” and “Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World.”

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Historical analogies for our present moment
Federal Reserve policy and independence
How much we should fear debt and inflation post-coronavirus
How the economic and political crisis of 2020 has changed or reinforced the trajectory of the U.S., China and Europe
Why there is no such thing as the post-American era

Find our guest online:

Website: Adamtooze.com

Twitter: @adam_tooze

Why Are Traditional Investors So Hungry for Yield Curve Control? Aug 23, 2020

On today’s edition of The Breakdown’s Long Reads Sunday, our selections have to do with one of the hottest topics in central banking: yield curve control.

“What Is Yield Curve Control?”

The first piece is from the St. Louis Federal Reserve and is a primer on YCC, including past U.S. implementations as well as versions from Japan and Australia.

“Market Jitters Show How Much Fed Medicine Matters”

Our second piece is an op-ed about how dramatically markets reacted to this small detail from the Federal Open Market Committee minutes, and what it suggests for their desires involving YCC.

People Aren’t Buying the ‘Great American Recovery’ Narrative Aug 22, 2020

Today on The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap:

People aren’t buying “the Great American Recovery”
Let’s stop considering the economy as one thing
Dave Portnoy doesn’t care about your principles
DeFi is the Wild West and saved only by the fact that no normie understands what the hell is going on
Bitcoin is being compared to the dollar not stocks and that’s serious progress

People Aren’t Buying the ‘Great American Recovery’ Narrative Aug 22, 2020

Today on The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap:

People aren’t buying “the Great American Recovery”
Let’s stop considering the economy as one thing
Dave Portnoy doesn’t care about your principles
DeFi is the Wild West and saved only by the fact that no normie understands what the hell is going on
Bitcoin is being compared to the dollar not stocks and that’s serious progress

Winter Is Coming: Examining the Economy's Eight-Body Problem Aug 22, 2020

The “three-body problem” is a physics issue that deals with unpredictable futures.

In a recent essay, John Mauldin argues the economy is actually experiencing an “eight-body problem.”

On today’s episode, NLW explores each of those dimensions shaping the challenge we face, including:

Central bank intervention
The destruction of the service industry
The implosion of global trade

In the end, he argues that in a world ruled by chaos, fighting to control the narrative might be the only rational move.

Read Ben Hunt’s essay “The Three-Body Problem”

The Most Pro-Bitcoin Politicians in the US Aug 21, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Markets react to FOMC notes
Taiwan blocks China streaming services
Initial jobless claims back on the rise

Our main discussion is a look at the politicians on both sides of the aisle who are pro-digital currencies and, especially, pro-bitcoin. Featuring:

Rep. Thomas Massie
Governor Jared Polis
Andrew Yang
Rep. Ted Budd
Rep. Trey Hollingsworth
Rep. Darren Soto
Rep. Stacey Plaskett
Rep. Tom Emmer
Senate Candidate Cynthia Lummis
Rep. Warren Davidson
Rep. Patrick McHenry

S&P 5 vs. S&P 500: The Real Story of the Stock Market Recovery Aug 20, 2020

Today, NLW debuts a new format: “10 Takes in 10(ish) Minutes.”

In this analysis, he looks at 10 takes surrounding the S&P 500’s return to positive territory on the year, including:

Great American comeback
Market disconnect and widening inequality
Don’t fight the Fed
To the Stoolies go the spoils
Stock splits and SPACs
It’s Tech vs. everything else
Cantillon insiders FTW
A new era of global liquidity?
You’d have done better with gold
You’d have done a lot a lot better with bitcoin

How Excess Capital and Low Interest Rates Reshaped Silicon Valley, Feat. Chris McCann Aug 19, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Everyone turns bullish as S&P 500 nears all-time highs
Emerging market currencies are floundering
Bitcoin holding sentiment highest in two years

Our main conversation features Race Capital’s Chris McCann.

Chris was previously the founder of Startup Digest, building it to 1 million subscriptions long before email newsletters were a thing. He spent four years building the community program at Greylock before launching his own venture firm.

In this conversation, Chris and NLW discuss:

The relationship between monetary policy and startup finance
What changes in startup financing have followed COVID-19
What the emerging fintech stack looks like, outside of crypto

Find our guest online:

Website: Race Capital

Twitter: @mccannatron

What’s Actually Happening with Inflation Right Now Aug 18, 2020

There is perhaps nothing more important or contentious in macroeconomics right now than the question of inflation.

On the one hand, there is a growing concern that rapidly growing money supply and increasing central bank balance sheets will inevitably lead to inflationary pressures.

On the other, critics of that point of view point to significant counterveiling forces such as the 10% unemployment rate and growing savings rate among consumers.

So who is right?

What are the specific narratives trying to say?
What is the evidence and data actually telling us?
And how are real people experiencing inflation today?

Is Asteroid Mining Really Our Best Argument for Bitcoin Over Gold? Aug 16, 2020

Earlier this week, the Winklevoss brothers introduced Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy to bitcoin.

One of the notable parts of the recap video was a discussion of how Elon Musk was set to destroy the value of gold on Earth by mining gold from asteroids.

While much meme fun was had, on this week’s Long Reads Sunday NLW has chosen a selection that looks at how fiat beat out gold and how gold beat out silver to provide some – ahem – more immediately relevant lessons on how to explain the benefits of bitcoin.

Read:Projection and ThrownessPart III — Bitcoin’s 10x Advantage Over Gold Might Not Lie Where You Think

By David Lawant

Here Comes the Most Bizarre Bull Market Yet Aug 15, 2020

On this edition of The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap, NLW looks at the strange melange of realities interacting in the new emerging bull market.

On the one hand, bitcoin has found narrative relevance and technical importance in a world of social unrest and increased state involvement in economies and citizens’ lives.

On the other, insane financial engineering experiments are seeing three-quarters of a billion dollars in value locked up within hours before a bug sees it all go away.

In the middle, agents of chaos like new bitcoiner (and LINK-holder) Dave Portnoy.

This is going to get weirder before it gets more normal.

Fortnite vs. Apple/Google is the Internet's First ‘World War’ Aug 15, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Jobless claims down and retail sales up
The U.S. Federal Reserve is running distributed ledger technology experiments
The end of an era, as BitMEX begins KYC

Our main discussion: the big battle brewing between Epic Games and Apple/Google.

NLW looks at:

Why Fortnite got kicked off the Apple and Google app stores
Why Epic Games is suing in response
Why this was all very clearly planned by Epic Games
Why Apple and Google should be nervous about anti-trust
Why this is about a much bigger future than just a single game

Preston Pysh on Why We’ve Entered a Fundamentally New Era of Bitcoin Accumulation Aug 14, 2020

The Investor’s Podcast Network cofounder Preston Pysh last recorded with The Breakdown on Black Thursday in March. As NLW and Pysh discussed the potential of future currency crises, bitcoin smashed all the way below $4,000.

In the five months since, bitcoin has risen 200%. It has attracted the devotion of leading hedge funders such as Paul Tudor Jones II and more recently has become the reserve asset of choice of at least one publicly listed company.

In this conversation, Preston and NLW discuss:

The significance of halving coinciding with central bank printing
The inevitability of negative interest rates
Why it’s the dollar, not the stock market, that is inversely correlated with the price of bitcoin
Why Preston believes in the stock-to-flow model
Who pays the price for inevitable currency debasement
Why we’re dramatically underestimating the precedent set by MicroStrategy’s $250,000,000 cash-for-bitcoin reserve switch
Why MicroStrategy will be worth 10 times what it is today a year from now

Find out guest online:Website: theinvestorspodcast.com

Twitter: @PrestonPysh

#SupplyGate and the Battle to Frame Crypto’s Next Bull Run Aug 13, 2020

Today on the Brief:

WSJ study finds TikTok was tracking data in a way that broke Android rules
The latest Core Inflation statistics
MicroStrategy stocks pops 10% after cash to bitcoin announcement

Our main discussion: What’s the Ethereum #SupplyGate really about

NLW breaks down:

The historical narratives bitcoiners and ether advocates hold relative to one another
The history of dominant narratives in crypto over the last three years
Why the next bull market is poised for a twin narrative combining bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement and DeFi as a money-making sandbox
What happened with #SupplyGate
Why #SupplyGate is as much about narrative competition as it is about the supply of ether

Joe Rogan for Fed Chair! Feat. Hugh Hendry Aug 12, 2020

Today on the Brief:

A public company has switched $250 million in cash reserves to bitcoin
The latest in the vaccine rumor trade with Vladimir Putin’s propaganda play
Hong Kongers use the stock market to protest

Our main conversation is with former hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry.

After a few years of focusing on a “volatility at the end of the world trade” in property development in St. Barth’s, the constant contrarian Hugh Hendry has returned to the macro world in a big way.

In this conversation, Hugh and NLW discuss:

Why Hugh left macro, and why he came back
How he lost three years being angry at the Fed
How he came to be bullish on equities in 2012
How money managers become trapped by narratives
Why the Fed should actually be less, not more, conservative
Why we need someone like Joe Rogan as Fed chair

Find out guest online:

Website: hughhendryofficial.com

Twitter: @hendry_hugh

The Latest on the Global Economy’s Most Contentious Relationship Aug 11, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Grayscale launches national digital asset TV ad campaign
Rough times for oil as Saudi Aramco sees 73% decline in revenue
Kodak crashes as government grant paused amid allegations of impropriety

Our main conversation is a look at the latest skirmishes between the United States and China, including:

U.S. sanctions on Hong Kong leaders including Carrie Lam
Retaliatory Chinese sanctions on U.S. politicians
The arrest of a pro-democracy Hong Kong media tycoon
Arrest warrants issued for six foreign Hong Kong democracy advocates
President Trump signs executive orders targeting TikTok and WeChat
Twitter enters the race to buy TikTok before the Executive Order ban takes effect
Impact on banks, the Hong Kong stock market and Huawei

How the Purpose of the Stock Market Has Changed Aug 09, 2020

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads three pieces:

Public Markets Don’t Matter Like They Used To - Matt Levine in Bloomberg

A look at how public markets are less and less about accessing new capital and more about narrative and liquidity for early investors.

Two Reasons Crypto’s Bull Market Is Coming - Anil Lulla on CoinDesk

The next bull market isn’t just about the bitcoin-dollar devaluation narrative but about decentralized finance providing a solid place to redeploy existing crypto capital.

The Business Behind Marshmello - Kevin Lee on Twitter

The unlikely story of the world’s second-highest paid DJ, including a bet on anonymity, a viral billboard making fun of Instagram influencers, and a cultural cooking channel on YouTube.

The Mounting Evidence of a New Bitcoin Bull Market Aug 08, 2020

This week’s Breakdown Weekly Recap is all about that vibe you’ve been feeling - that inescapable notion a new crypto bull market is afoot.

NLW looks at the evidence:

Rising gold price
Recirculation of crypto money out of zombie protocols
New growth in small holder addresses
Demand from emerging market p2p markets

It’s just possible this new bull market isn’t just starting to be seen in narratives, but is also showing up in numbers.

11 Numbers That Tell the Story of the Economy Right Now Aug 08, 2020

Mainstream financial media loves reporting the stock market like it's the only economic indicator that matters. On this episode, NLW breaks down 11 numbers that together tell a much more complete story, including:

Record price of gold
Square’s bitcoin revenue
National debt as a percentage of GDP
Fall of the Turkish lira
Price of coffee, sugar and cocoa
Housing in auto demand
Anti-Chinese sentiment in the U.S.

The History, Present, and Future of Central Banks, Feat. George Selgin Aug 07, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Better news in the jobless claims this week
A new bitcoin adoption cycle?
A check in on Lebanon

Our main conversation is with Dr. George Selgin.

Dr. Selgin is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives as well as Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Georgia.

In this eye-opening conversation, he and NLW go deep on the history, present and future of central banks, including:

Why the Scottish and Canadian banking systems in the 19th century that central banks aren’t a prerequisite for stability
Why the USA’s “free banking” system wasn’t free at all
Why the instability in the late 19th century US banking system was caused by regulation, not the lack of a Fed
Why the Fed’s first decades were a disaster
Why the Fed gets more power when it underperforms
The problems with the Fed’s response to 2008
What lessons the Fed could have but didn’t learn between the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19

Find our guest online

Website: Alt-M.org

Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on Stagflation, Bitcoin and the Devalued Dollar Aug 06, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Robinhood doubles quarterly trading revenue
Square did $875 billion in bitcoin revenue in Q2 - up 600% YoY
ADP report: 167,000 jobs added in July (instead of expected 1.2 million)

Our main conversation is with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

Before building Hedgeye into a “no-excuses provider of real-time investment research and a premier online financial media company,” Keith worked at hedge funds including Carlyle Blue Wave Partners hedge fund, Magnetar Capital, Falconhenge Partners and Dawson Herman Capital Management.

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Hedgeye’s “Full Cycle Investing” approach and GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) methodology
How the economy was in a period of slowing growth and slowing inflation before COVID-19
How we’ve moved into a stagflation period in response to the money printing prompted by the crisis
Why bitcoin, gold, emerging market stocks and commodities are likely to thrive in this environment
Why most narratives are BS
Why the “Old Wall” media distracts rather than educates

Check out our guest online:

Website: Hedgeye.com

Twitter: @KeithMcCullough

Can Social Media Be Redeemed? Feat. Early Facebooker-turned-Investor Bobby Goodlatte Aug 05, 2020

Today on the Brief:

President Trump wants a cut of the TikTok deal
Previewing this week’s COVID-19 vaccine trade
Dave Portnoy breaks into bitcoin

Our main conversation is with Bobby Goodlatte.

Bobby is the founder of Form Capital, a new seed investment firm that focuses on supporting portfolio companies with value-add design.

Bobby was an early employee at Facebook and has been an active angel investor since 2012, with investments that include Coinbase.

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

The early days of Facebook
Why angel investors don’t like new angel investors to get involved
How Silicon Valley reflects larger questions of equity valuations
How social media has changed over the last decade
Why politics is now “downstream from algorithms”
Why there are still possibilities to build new social networks
Why today’s social networks could make different decisions that would be better for the world.

Find our guest online:

Website: Form Capital

Twitter: @rsg

The Best of the Breakdown July 2020 Aug 04, 2020

Today on the Brief:

The TikTok-Microsoft Deal
The Twitter hacker was 17
A changing of the guard for crypto hedge funds

Our main discussion: recapping the best interviews of July 2020

Despite a huge variety of perspectives and experiences, one theme shown through in Breakdown conversations in July: the disparity between the stock market and the real economy and a growing unwillingness of people to accept their place in the order.

This show features clips from:

George Gammon - @GeorgeGammon
Daniel Lacalle - @dlacalle_IA
George Goncalves - @bondstrategist
Sahil Bloom - @SahilBloom
Tyrone Ross - @TR401
Tony Greer - @TgMacro
Jill Carlson - @jillruthcarlson
Michael Krieger - @LibertyBlitz
Sergey Nazarov - @SergeyNazarov

What Future Are We Building Bitcoin For? Aug 02, 2020

Bitcoin started as a rebellious, anti-establishment technology. In many parts of the world, and for many people, it remains exactly that.

At the same time, however, there is a wave of traditionalists and institutional players moving into the space.

Are they buying into the revolution, or are they trying to capture value while fitting the disruption into a box that maintains the current power structure they lead?

Those are the key questions explored by Meltem Demirors in her new essay “Unintended Architecture.” The piece is our selection for this week’s “Long Reads Sunday.”

Previewing the Economic Showdowns Coming This Fall Aug 01, 2020

On this week’s edition of The Breakdown Weekly Recap, NLW argues the big story of the week was actually a set of smaller stories that preview the faultlines and economic debates likely to absorb us in the coming months.

These include:

The Federal Reserve signaling that fiscal stimulus needs to do more
The beginning of the battles on fiscal stimulus
The introduction of the “not safe to vote” narrative
The Big Tech vs. The World fight
The beginning of coronavirus lawsuits
Back to school
Jobless claims getting worse
Kodak and reshoring

What a Professional Trader Thinks of the Fed, Robinhood and Real Estate, Feat. Tony Greer Aug 01, 2020

Today on the Brief:

The DXY hits a 52-week low
Consumers seeking alternatives to cash
Bank of England rebuilds settlement system to work with CBDCs

Our main conversation is with trader and analyst Tony Greer. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

The Federal Reserve’s role in increasing inequality
How the Robinhood crowd differs from the 1999 bubble
Why high-frequency traders might be the real villains when it comes to the retail bubble
Why gold is surging even though the dollar remains fundamentally sound
How to navigate the disparity between markets and the real economy
Why real estate is doing well even as the economy is floundering

Find our guest online:

Website: tgmacro.com

Twitter: @TgMacro

The Bond Market Is the Truth Teller No One Listens To, Feat. George Goncalves Jul 31, 2020

Today on the Brief:

More bad news from jobless claims and the GDP
The big tech hearing was a whole bunch of nothing; watch TikTok instead
Robinhood dives into Kodak (but so do illegal insider traders)

Our main conversation is with independent bond strategist George Goncalves.

We discuss:

How the bond market watches Federal Reserve meetings
What, if anything, was new about this week’s FOMC meeting
What it means that the bond market and equities market tell different stories
Why the bond market has been telling a long-term story of slowing growth
Whether institutional investors are actually moving away from government debt and into gold
Why Judy Shelton should have a place on the Federal Reserve

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @bondstrategist

How DeFi Could Disrupt Traditional Finance, Feat. Sergey Nazarov Jul 30, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Big tech goes to Washington
The debate on the next COVID-19 relief act heats up
More on institutional investors’ move into gold

“Imagine a world without counterparty risk.”

That was Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov’s answer when asked to describe the true disruption of decentralized finance to a traditional finance audience.

On this episode of The Breakdown, Sergey and NLW discuss:

Brand-based contracts vs. math-based contracts
The history of smart contracts
What it means to build an “abstraction layer” for “universally connected smart contracts”
Key moments in the history of smart contract infrastructure
Where smart contracts and DeFi are in terms of analogies to the early internet
Why Sergey believes traditional finance will inevitably shift to a math-based contract model

Find our guest online:

Website: Chainlink

Twitter: @SergeyNazarov

How Real Is Bitcoin’s Rally? 8 Interpretations of the $11k Surge Jul 29, 2020

It was a beautiful Monday.

Bitcoin crashed through $10,000 and got all the way up to a new yearly high of about $11,000 before retracing slightly.

As with any dramatic price action, people were quick to start giving their interpretations of why it happened.

In this episode, NLW explains eight of those interpretations, including:

Banks stacking due to changes in custody rules
Money printer go brrr
Stock to flow model
Robinhood traders piling in
DeFi gain recycling
Buyers exceeding sellers
“Perfect storm”
Dollar crash, negative real interest rates and the search for a new reserve currency

Ultimately, NLW argues that it is this last factor driving up not only bitcoin but gold and silver.

SPACs 101: A Bubble, the Future or Both? Jul 28, 2020

Special purpose acquisition companies have been around since the 1990s, but have seen a significant uptick in popularity in recent years. Companies like Virgin Galactic, Draft Kings and Nikola have changed SPAC’s reputation from a tool for second- and third-tier private equity shops to win fees to a legitimate alternative to initial public offerings. In 2020, SPACs have made up roughly 40% of the IPO market.

Recently, chatter around SPACs reached a fever pitch with the listing of Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Tontine Holdings - the largest-ever SPAC.

In this episode, NLW breaks down:

What a SPAC is
Standard SPAC terms
Why the traditional IPO process has generated growing discontent, especially from Silicon Valley
The benefits of SPACs for companies and investors
The downsides of SPACs for companies and investors
A number of reasons explaining why SPAC popularity is surging now
How Robinhood retail traders are creating an important bridge buyer for SPACs
Why Ackman’s Tontine Holdings SPAC could change how we think about SPACs in the future
Are SPACs a bubble?

Cited resources:

SPAC Man Begins - Alex Danco

SPACs as a Call Option on Hype - Bryne Hobart

SPACs: the most ludicrous bubble we’ll ever see… why not $IAC? - Yet Another Value Blog

Return of the SPAC - John Street Capital

The Economic Conflict That Will Shape The Next Century Jul 26, 2020

This week on Long Reads Sunday, our selection is “Whose Century?” by Adam Tooze in the London Review of Books.

Nominally a review of four recent scholarly works on the conflict between the US and China, Tooze main argument is that the central problem with viewing this as a new Cold War is the idea that it is new.

Instead, we need to understand that, contra Fukiyama’s famous essay, history didn’t end in 1989 - at least not for the Chinese. What’s more, the narrative of having “won” the Cold War fails to take into account our spectacular failures in Asia.

Only by reframing our understanding can we make sense of the most important geopolitical conflict of the coming century.

As Economic Indicators Get Worse, the US Revs Up the Next Multi-Trillion Stimulus Jul 25, 2020

This week on the Breakdown Weekly Recap, NLW covers:

A terrible week for US-China tensions, with dueling Consulate closures and an incredibly hawkish speech from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
Worsening economic indicators, particularly around jobless claims which saw their first weekly rise in four months
The likely size of the next US stimulus bill - $1T to $3T

Could the European Recovery Plan Actually Break Europe Apart? Feat. Tuomas Malinen Jul 25, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Which industries are recovering the best
China retaliates against U.S. after consulate shutdown
Dollar heads toward its worst month since 2018

Our main discussion features returning guest Tuomas Malinen, CEO of GnS Economics.

In this discussion, Tuomas and NLW discuss:

An outline of the European Union’s new recovery plan
The new debt issuance structure that marks a first for Europe
The challenges of currency unions
How Europe’s debt crisis changed how Europeans think about economic integration
Why the current plan amounts to “stealth federalization”
Why some member states are in a state of mutiny over the fund

Find our guest online:

Website: GnS Economics

Twitter: @mtmalinen

Will Big Tech Enable or Destroy Small Business? Feat. Sahil Bloom Jul 24, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Disappointing jobless claim numbers with first increase in 4 months
US banks now allows to custody crypto
Senate hears arguments for a digital dollar in the context of US-China economic competition

Our main conversation with Sahil Bloom

Sahil Bloom is an investor with Altamont Capital Partners and a prolific author of financial literacy Twitter threads.

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Today’s jobless claims
Long term economic impacts from COVID in the travel industry
“Forced efficiency realization”
How remote work opens white collar professionals to global competition
Whether tech platforms are a destructive or enabling force for small business
Why financial education is essential and sorely lacking
Why the Robinhood rally crowd represents a positive opportunity for bringing new voices into the markets

Find our guest on Twitter: @sahilbloom

A Simple Explanation of DeFi and Yield Farming Using Actual Human Words Jul 23, 2020

Today on the Brief:

US Gov’t forces China’s Houston consulate to close
US previously-owned housing market grows 20.7% May to June
Insider stock selling reaches record levels

Our main discussion: DeFi 101

Today’s episode of The Breakdown is a primer for anyone who has lost track of the terminology surrounding decentralized finance. In it, NLW goes over:

DeFi’s background and origins
Market making in a traditional context
Automated market making
How liquidity mining incentives economic participation
How decentralized exchanges differ from centralized exchanges
What “yield farming” actually means
Why we shouldn’t be concerned about the Yield Farming bubble

Is the Fed About to Start Promoting Inflation? Jul 22, 2020

Today on the Brief:

EU leaders agree on $2 billion stimulus package
LinkedIn job cuts show weakness in the professional sector
Has DeFi jumped the shark?

Our main discussion: The Fed’s changing inflation strategy

University of Oregon professor and Bloomberg columnist Tim Duy recently penned a piece called “The Fed Is Setting the Stage for a Major Policy Change” arguing that we’re likely to see more inflation, promoted by the Fed.

In this episode, NLW breaks down:

Why the Fed is turning away from its traditional inflation forecasting method
Why the Fed is likely to let real inflation hit 2% before doing anything
Why some are calling the move “simply asinine”
Why some think the Fed is full of hot air and has no power to actually create inflation
Why the Fed is trapped by its definition of inflation

Audio clip featuring Alhambra Investments head of research Jeffrey Snider in an interview with Emil Kalinowski.

What Is GPT-3 and Should We Be Terrified? Jul 21, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Mastercard, Standard Chartered and PayPal all deepen their engagement with crypto
Japan inches closer to a central bank digital currency
The real estate “doom trade” opens up

Our main discussion: GPT-3

Generative pertained transformer-3 – or GPT-3 as it’s better known – absolutely took over the internet this weekend.

It’s a new AI language model that can do some truly incredible things, from writing poetry to composing business memos to generating functioning code from natural language descriptions.

In this episode of the Breakdown, NLW provides a 101-level overview of GPT-3, including:

What an AI language model is
Why AI for language is more difficult than image-based AI
The background of OpenAI, the Elon Musk-backed project behind GPT-3
Some examples of what GPT-3 can do
Why reasoning and narrative still elude the technology

Reference posts:

GPT-3 Examples, a Twitter Thread

Jonathan Johnson on AI Language Models

Rob Teows: GPT-3 Is Amazing – And Overhyped

Are Stablecoins Eurodollars 2.0? Long Reads Sunday Jul 19, 2020

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, we look at two essays about stablecoins previously published on CoinDesk.

The first is called “USD Stablecoins Are Surging, but Zero Interest Rates Complicate Business Model” by Hasu and was one of the first pieces to recognize that demand was coming not just from the crypto space but from emerging markets facing crisis time currency pressures.

The second is “Hyper-Stablecoinization: From Eurodollars to Crypto-Dollars” from Pascal Hügli. The piece argues that stablecoins are likely to play an increasingly important role in the global economy. In effect, they are a better version of the critical eurodollar system.

Social Media Is Democracy’s Faultline: The Breakdown Weekly Recap Jul 18, 2020

On this edition of the Weekly Recap, NLW explores:

No-volatility bitcoin and DeFi’s big quarter
An uptick in central bank currency action
PayPal crypto confirmation
A China-U.S. rhetoric flare up
Social media as democracy’s fault line
In Fed World, is the narrative trade the only trade?

What If the Too-Strong Dollar Is a Solved Problem? Feat. Jon Turek Jul 18, 2020

Today on the Brief:

The latest information in the Twitter hack
Thailand starts using its central bank digital currency
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin calls on Congress for more funds

Our main conversation is with Jon Turek, author of “Cheap Convexity.”

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Why the dollar has gotten stronger thanks to a savings glut from Asia
How a too-strong dollar hurts other markets more than the U.S.
Why globalization died in 2011 and we just didn’t realize it
How the Fed fixed the global dollar plumbing
Why there are still questions of actual dollar shortages
The detente in U.S.-China financial relations

Find our guest online

Website: Cheap Convexity

Twitter: @jturek18

No, the Twitter Hack Wasn't about Bitcoin Jul 17, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Adjustment to bank profits in anticipation of growing debt delinquency
The lowest decrease in jobless claims since March
A boost in retail spending

Today’s main discussion: The Great Twitter Hack, feat. Dr. Tom Robinson, chief scientist and co-founder of Elliptic

Wednesday, at around 2:15 p.m. EDT, prominent Crypto Twitter accounts started sharing a similar message about a bitcoin giveaway. A couple of hours later, Elon Musk and Bill Gates were saying they were feeling generous and wanting to give bitcoin away. A couple more hours and every verified blue check mark account on Twitter was taken down.

It was an attack with massive implications, if not much monetary gain.

On this episode NLW breaks down:

What happened
Which accounts were impacted
How much BTC was transferred
The narrative battle of “bitcoin scam” vs. “Twitter hack”
Why it might have been a state-sponsored attack
Why the real intention might have been to discredit Twitter
Why the (supposed) revelations about Twitter’s administrative tools could end up in a congressional inquiry

Expert commentary provided by Dr. Tom Robinson. Find our guest online:

Elliptic website: Elliptic.co
Twitter: @tomrobin

A Primer on the US and China's 'New Cold War' Jul 16, 2020

No geopolitical relationship will shape the world over the coming decade as much as that of the U.S. and China.

A day after President Trump signed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act enabling sanctions on those that threaten the autonomy of China (and the companies that do business with them) and the UK worked to ban Huawei 5G infrastructure, this episode of the Breakdown looks at the key faultlines and issues that have that relationship in a dangerous downward spiral:

Virus blame recriminations
Trade war tensions
The Hong Kong Security Law
Huawei 5G and critical digital infrastructure
TikTok
India border skirmish
South China Sea Military Exercises
The politics of labeling this a “new cold war”

Why Are Execs of Bankrupt Companies Being Rewarded With Millions? Jul 15, 2020

Today on the Brief:

A followup on Tesla, corporate earnings and PayPal’s crypto ambitions
New COVID-19 shutdowns in California
Small businesses on the brink

Our main conversation:

Bloomberg has reported recently bankrupt companies including J.C. Penney and Hertz had provided executives with more than $131,000,000 in bonuses.

On this episode of The Breakdown, NLW examines:

The logic behind these bonuses
Why that logic is stupid
How this sort of reward for personal failure in the wake of 2008 led to the rise of populism on the right and left
Why we should allow companies to fail
Why people’s sense that the system is a crony system isn’t wrong

The Real Story Behind Tesla's Crazy Rally Jul 14, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Wall Street quarterly earnings season opens
Investor flock to higher-yielding Chinese government bonds
Bitcoin whales go down but other types of HODLers go up

Our main conversation: What the hell is going on with $TSLA?

Elon Musk is now richer than Warren Buffett. A year ago, Tesla wasn’t as valuable as Ford or GM. Now it’s more than 25% of the value of the auto market as a whole.

In this episode, NLW looks at a set of possible explanations:

Elon as a Golden God/the cult of personality
Tesla as an innovative tech company
Better-than-expected vehicle delivery
The mother of all short squeezes
Robinhood effect
Mr. FEDerico
Narrative Market Machine

In the end, NLW argues that in a world where 1) the new retail base is willing to engage in narrative and meme warfare and 2) where the Federal Reserve distorts prices, the narrative market machine becomes more of a driver of prices than ever before.

Does COVID-19 Have The World Rethinking Dollar Supremacy? Jul 12, 2020

On this episode of Long Reads Sunday, we look at Professor Stephen S. Roach’s piece “The Covid Shock To The Dollar.”

In it, he argues:

Americans have been squandering their savings potential
Because of this, we are forced to borrow surplus savings from abroad
We have usually been able to do this on favorable terms
That window may be coming to a close
There could be a 35% drop in the dollar over the next 2-3 years

The Mixed Signals Economy: The Breakdown Weekly Recap Jul 11, 2020

On The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap, NLW explores:

The final tally on the TikTok Doge viral campaign
The growing geopolitical tension between China and the US and where it’s manifesting
Positive economic indicators in reduced jobless claims
Negative economic indicators in growing COVID-19 cases and deaths
Why bitcoin is sideways
Why Treasury yields are down
Why gold is up

Against Outrage Culture: Why Michael Krieger Ended Liberty Blitzkrieg Jul 11, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Hong Kong re-closes schools based on COVID-19 growth
Coinbase explores direct U.S. exchange listing
China starts selling stock, easing massive rally

Our main conversation is with Liberty Blitzkrieg creator and editor Michael Krieger. Michael announced just before recording that he is done publishing on the LB site. He and NLW discuss:

How Michael became disaffected while working on Wall Street during the Great Financial Crisis
How Zero Hedge amplified Liberty Blitzkrieg and sent Michael on a decade-long writing path
How Michael discovered bitcoin and the bitcoin community in 2012
Why social media platforms need to be regulated with the principles of the First Amendment
How all political parties use division to stay in power
How outrage culture has become endemic, commodified and co-opted by existing power
Why the only option to fight outrage culture is to opt out

Find our guest online:Website: libertyblitzkrieg.com

Twitter: @LibertyBlitz

Social Chaos and Bankruptcy Rallies: The Best Insights From FinTwit June 2020 Jul 10, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Slight good news in new and continuing jobless claims
Record corporate equity and debt sales during the crisis
USDC freezes $100k

Our main conversation: Introducing the Macro Media Index.

The Macro Media Index is a monthly summary of the best macroeconomic tweets, essays, podcast and videos from around the internet.

In this inaugural edition, NLW looks at a few key themes:

The disconnect between the market and the real economy
The role of the Fed and monetary policy in growing wealth inequality and social unrest
The Robinhood Rally and bankruptcy bet that took institutional investors by complete surprise
The great inflation vs. deflation debate

Featuring insight from previous Breakdown guests including Luke Gromen, Lyn Alden, Jesse Felder, Preston Pysh and more.

TikTok Doge Is Everything About 2020 Finance In One Story Jul 09, 2020

What’s old is new again!

What happens when you combine a mostly hibernating memecoin with the world’s most powerful (and controversial) meme platform, and throw in a new generation of daytraders that have become convinced that they can drive the price of anything up?

The great TikTok Doge pump of 2020, of course.

In this episode, NLW breaks down:

The history of Dogecoin
How TikTok became one of the most popular, influential, and controversial apps in the world
Why the r/WallStreetBets, Davey Day Trader Global Global, and Robinhood Rally day trader movement perfectly set up this pump
How #TikTokDogecoinChallenge began to trend
What has happened to Dogecoin since the trend started
Why this all makes a weird sort of cynical sense

Central Banks Cannot Print Jobs: Understanding Real Economic Recovery, feat. Daniel Lacalle Jul 08, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Social media apps get caught in geopolitical tensions
Pitchforks around the Paycheck Protection Program
Brazil blocks Binance

Our main discussion is with Daniel Lacalle. Daniel is chief economist at Tressis and is the author of numerous books including “Life in the Financial Markets,” “Escape from the Central Bank Trap” and his most recent, “Freedom or Equality.” He has been named one of the 100 most influential economists in the world by Richtopia.

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Why the recovery will likely be “L” shaped and uneven, not “V” shaped
Why the “bailout of everything” undermines capitalism and promotes zombie companies that can’t service their debts
Why zombie companies crowd out space for startups and small businesses
How government programs can incentivize relationships with government over strong business practices
How the current economic crisis could become a banking crisis

Find our guest online:

Website: dlacalle.com
Twitter: @dlacalle_IA

China Stocks Surge and NYC Real Estate Craters: 5 Stories Shaping Markets Today Jul 07, 2020

In this extended Brief, NLW tells the story of the economy through five themes:

The story of the economy as told by five macroeconomic indicators including Chinese stocks, New York City real estate, coronavirus cases and more.

China stocks surge – but how much is it driven by Chinese state-sponsored media hype?
A tale of two cities – real estate in New York City and Hong Kong are telling very different stories
A global currency crisis in Lebanon - foodstuffs are up 100% in the last two weeks as the pound continues to falter
The COVID-19 ticker - daily cases continue to grow in the U.S. but deaths are declining
The cost of the U.S. losing its place in the world - from travelers turned away in Italy to decreasing capital inflows
Plus a bonus: what the Nasdaq all-time highs really mean

Why Bitcoin Matters For Freedom [Long Reads Sunday] Jul 05, 2020

An appropriate post-July 4th episode of the Breakdown's #LongReadsSunday featuring Human Rights Foundation CSO Alex Gladstein's "Why Bitcoin Matters For Freedom"

Read the original on Time

Follow Alex on Twitter

It’s Time for a Revolution in Financial Education, Feat. Tyrone Ross Jul 04, 2020

Financial education and financial literacy are at crisis levels in this country. Financial advisers spend billions on advertising but a fraction of that on education. The resources that are available tend to be inaccessible and not designed for the people who need them most. Financial media remains a boring, exclusionary acronym game.

The net result of all of this is a population of Americans who don’t have the mental tools to understand, make sense of and make good decisions around their finances.

In this passionate conversation with NLW, financial adviser Tyrone Ross argues that all hope is not lost. According to Tyrone:

Financial literacy is a cross-cutting crisis not limited to any one demographic
Even the resources that do exist aren’t designed for the way their intended targets consume media
Despite all the bad things happening, this moment is also providing an inflection point where change is possible

Find our guest online:Website: tyroneross.io

Twitter: @TR401

Here’s How to Expand Who Contributes to Bitcoin Core Jul 04, 2020

OKCoin and BitMEX recently came together to provide a $150,000 grant to Bitcoin Core developer Amiti Uttarwar.

In this conversation, Amiti and OKCoin CEO Hong Fang discuss:

Why OKCoin believes it is essential for companies in the space to support Bitcoin Core development
How OKCoin and BitMEX came together around this grant
Why Amiti is focused on the P2P layer
Why Amiti believes Bitcoin should be private by default
Why Bitcoin Core will better serve more populations if more populations are represented in who is building it

Find our guests online:

Hong Fang Website: https://www.okcoin.com/Twitter: @hfangca

Amiti Uttarwar

Twitter: @amizi

Why the Robinhood Revolution Is the Future of Finance, Feat. Jill Carlson Jul 03, 2020

Even before the COVID-19 crisis, Reddit’s WallStreetBets channel was featured on the cover of Bloomberg BusinessWeek as an emerging market force.

Since then, between the surge in signups for Robinhood and the wave of followers of Davey Day Trader Global Global, these day traders have taken an even bigger place in the conversation about the stock market.

While many finance professionals (and, most certainly, traditional financial media) have treated the movement with skepticism, paternalism or outright derision, Slow Ventures’ Jill Carlson has a very different view.

To Jill, this group represents a new wave of investors who are unwilling to wait for permission to play a game that has been largely closed off to most.

In this conversation, Jill talks about why the Robinhood revolution is very, very real, and what opportunities for entrepreneurship and investing she sees in terms of financial education, new exchange tools and more.

Find our guest online:Website: jill-carlson.com Twitter: @jillruthcarlson

Satoshi’s Unappreciated Marketing Genius, Feat. Dan Held Jul 02, 2020

Satoshi Nakamoto is often recognized for his technical genius in solving the double spend problem. He is also widely revered for his willingness to walk away from the protocol to make it stronger, something no other entrepreneur who has created anything on the scale of Bitcoin has ever done.

What people discuss less often is Satoshi’s marketing instincts. In this illuminating conversation, serial bitcoin entrepreneur Dan Held argues:

Satoshi had strong instincts about how price would drive bitcoin adoption
The bitcoin white paper document was a marketing pitch aimed specifically at the cypherpunks
The competition between bitcoin narratives is something that gives the protocol strength
The competition to shape bitcoin's narrative is truly free and open to all

‘It Sure Doesn’t Feel Like the Greatest Economy of All Time,’ Feat. George Gammon Jul 01, 2020

What would you do if you were approaching your 40s, burned out and realizing the type of financial success you had been pursuing wasn’t actually serving your true goal of freedom?

If you were George Gammon, the answer would be to change everything and start globetrotting in search of new opportunities.

George Gammon is the host of the rapidly growing George Gammon YouTube channel and Rebel Capitalist podcast. He is rapidly building one of the most rapid macro and investing fanbases around.

In this Free Ideas Festival conversation, he and NLW discuss:

The pursuit of personal freedom
Producing a home-flipping TV show in Colombia
Why inflation is at the heart of people’s economic discontent
How crony capitalism is driving young people to Communism
Building a rapidly growing podcast and YouTube empire

How the Fed Fans the Flame - The Best of The Breakdown June 2020 Jun 30, 2020

June 2020 will go down in the history books as an extremely chaotic and confusing period.

In this “Best of the Month” retrospective, we look at some of the best guest conversations from The Breakdown, including:

Human Rights Foundation CSO Alex Gladstein on the importance of cash for privacy
DigiChina Editor-in-Chief Graham Webster on China’s decade-long turn away from liberalism
Alhambra Investments lead researcher Jeff Snider on why the Federal Reserve’s power is a myth
Popular Front founder Jake Hanrahan on the media’s veneer of objectivity
Castle Island Ventures’ Nic Carter on why people should have rights to their social media profiles
The Crypto Dog on mining bitcoin in 2011
Independent macro analyst Jesse Felder on the Fed’s role in increasing inequality
BlockTower Capital’s Ari Paul on how people lose faith in central banks
“Think For Yourself” author Dr. Vikram Mansharamani on the recipe for inflation
Independent oil and trading expert Tracy Shuchart on how easy money enabled the shale revolution
Adamant Capital’s Tuur Demeester on historical analogies for seething discontent

A Primer on the Eurodollar and Shadowbanking System [Long Reads Sunday] Jun 28, 2020

The latest Long Read is "Crypto Dollars and the Evolution of Eurodollar Banking" by Avi Felman and Max Bronstein.

This piece covers:

The Dollar Milkshake Theory
Why the demand for the US dollar remains so high
Why demand for dollars is increasing rather than decreasing
What "eurodollars" are
What the shadow banking system is
How eurodollars and shadow banking contribute to USD demand
How stablecoins and cryptodollarization could create demand for crypto

Welcome to the Groundhog Day Economy (PS, It Sucks) - The Breakdown Weekly Recap Jun 27, 2020

As states shutter economic activity because of preventable COVID-19 outbreaks, it’s deja vu all over again.

This is a movie we’ve seen before:

Rise in what could have been preventable COVID-19 cases
A call for shutdowns (plus voluntary closures)
Rampant politicization of health and economic issues rather than common sense approaches
Persistent jobless claims plus new layoffs
Wall Street nerves turning into new Federal Reserve and Treasury action

Rinse, repeat, economy!

How Monopolies Sow the Seeds of Their Own Destruction, Feat. Tuur Demeester Jun 27, 2020

Today on the Brief:

A consumer spending rebound
A new crypto regulatory regime in Europe
A bitcoin warning from a famed investor

Our main discussion:

Tuur Demeester is the managing partner of Adamant Capital, a bitcoin investment firm that earlier this year published “The Bitcoin Reformation.”

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

The four preconditions for a reformation, and how they apply today
How hyperinflation contributed to the French Revolution
Why inflation is becoming a more significant threat today
How bitcoin memes function like unifying doctrines from past revolutions
Why millennials could be the Greatest Generation 2.0

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @TuurDemeester

On the web: Adamant Capital

Is Scam Selling Suppressing the Price of Bitcoin? Jun 26, 2020

Today’s edition of The Breakdown is an extended version of the Brief, this time covering five topics.

New Jobless claims - sticking stubbornly at ~1.5 million new claims per week, despite economist expectations
The “whack-a-mole” economy - Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers predicts as much as 30% of the economy may need to close to get COVID-19 under control
PlusToken scam pressure on BTC price: Has scam selling suppressed the price of bitcoin since early last year?
Biggest ever bitcoin option expiry; more than $1 billion in notational value BTC options are set to expire tomorrow, Friday, June 26
Apple’s UX privacy triumph: Users will have to opt-in to allow apps to track them across other apps as well

Bull vs. Bear: Who Has the Economy Right? Jun 25, 2020

The economy is nothing if not confounding right now.

Across every domain, from real estate to oil to retail, there are bull signals and bear signals.

In this episode, NLW looks at those signals in the following areas:

Markets - strong stock recovery vs. growth in cash deposits
Employment - growth in jobs vs. persistent continuing jobless claims
Retail - growth in foot traffic vs. demand destruction
Oil - growth in demand (but not in economically productive diesel)
Real estate - surge in mortgage applications vs. worst home sales since 2010
Dollar - declining confidence vs. there is no alternative
COVID-19 - reduced death rates in the U.S. vs. growing caseload

What’s the answer? Is this just a narrative mirage recovery? Listen and find out.

Oil 101: How Easy Money Enabled the Shale Revolution, Feat. Tracy Shuchart Jun 24, 2020

Today on the Brief:

PayPal and Venmo reportedly adding crypto buying and selling
Trump executive order temporarily suspends H1-B visa program
Continued growth in bitcoin derivatives

Our main conversation:

Tracy Shuchart is an oil- and commodities-focused trader in the private equity space known for her wide-ranging insights on financial Twitter (FinTwit).

In this conversation, she and NLW discuss:

Why the shale revolution of the last 10 years shifted the power balance in global energy among the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia
How easy money in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis enabled the shale revolution as much as new technology
Why after the 2014-2016 oil crash it was inexperienced private equity firms that picked up where banks left off with shale
How a growing focus on dividends and cutting costs was creating structural problems for shale even before the COVID-19 crisis
How COVID-19 coincided with a contentious negotiation between Saudi Arabia and Russia that ultimately sent prices to less than $0

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @chigrl
On the web: chigrl.com

Macro Investors Sound Off! Featuring Ari Paul, Spencer Bogart and David Nage Jun 23, 2020

Today on the Brief:

New Federal Reserve research suggests reaction to Facebook’s Libra basket approach was overblown
Italian Banking Association pushing to test a digital euro
U.S. housing has worst month since 2010

Our main conversation:

Earlier this month, Messari hosted the Mainnet virtual summit. At that event, NLW moderated a session called “Macro Investors Sound Off!” featuring BlockTower Capital’s Ari Paul, Blockchain Capital’s Spencer Bogart and Arca’s David Nage.

The discussion included:

The evolution of the Fed put and how it shapes the markets
How the collision of Bitcoin’s halving and the Fed’s reaction to COVID-19 created a powerful narrative moment
Why the “Money Printer Go BRR” meme was so effective
Why the Paul Tudor Jones letter was hugely influential within family offices
Why these investors expect to see some significant announcements around bitcoin exposure from traditional investors in the months to come

Find our guests online:

Ari Paul: @AriDavidPaul

Spencer Bogart: @CremeDeLaCrypto

David Nage: @DavidJNage

Watch the rest of Messari’s Mainnet 2020 sessions.

Fight the Fed or Love the BRRR? [Long Reads Sunday] Jun 21, 2020

A reading of two pieces

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Money Printer

by Jill Carlson | CoinDesk

+

Fight the Fed

Jesse Felder | The Felder Report

A Dozen+ Statistics Proving Millennials Are F%#$&D: The Breakdown Weekly Recap Jun 20, 2020

The big narrative in financial media for the last few weeks has been the insurgent Robinhood rally, led by the AC/DC-blaring Pied Piper Dave Portnoy, owner of Davey Day Trader Global Global (DDTG Global).

As people try to make sense of the strange retail trading phenomenon, one perspective is the participants (average age of 31 on Robinhood) are reacting to a market that has left them behind. In this view, they are assaulting the market with otherwise outrageous and ludicrous strategies because, otherwise, how will they get their piece?

This week’s Breakdown Weekly Recap looks at this in the context of some surprising (and frankly depressing) stats about the millennial generation’s current wealth, as compared to where boomers were at the same time in their careers.

Why Monetary Debasement Is Here to Stay, Feat. Dr. Vikram Mansharamani Jun 20, 2020

Today on the Brief:

FTX lists two Compound tokens
Reddit partners with Ethereum Foundation on Layer 2 scaling
Black-In Freedom Festival reimagines Juneteenth

Our main topic:

Dr. Vikram Mansharamani is a lecturer at Harvard and author of “Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst” as well as the just released “Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence.”

In this wide-ranging conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Why our relationship with experts and expertise is leading us astray
How COVID-19 shows the downside of both over-reliance on, and complete rejection of, experts
How the economic crisis surrounding COVID-19 is bursting bubbles and moving us from a period defined by deflation to one defined by inflation
Why “monetary debasement is here to stay”
Why the U.S.-China relationship is the key backdrop for understanding the next 10 years of global economic reality
Why inequality threatens the fabric of our economy and our society, and what might be done about it

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @mansharamani
Website: Vikram Mansharamani | “THINK FOR YOURSELF”

6 Things Jobless Claims Tell Us About the State of the Real Economy Jun 19, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Powell says private companies shouldn’t be involved in Central Bank Digital Currencies
According to former NSA head John Bolton, Trump told Mnuchin to go after Bitcoin
Interest around Compound driving speculation around a DeFi-driven bull run

Our main topic:

This week’s U.S. jobless report brought bad news. Whereas economists had expected new claims to fall to 1.29 million from 1.57 million the week before, claims fell just 58,000 to 1.51 million.

Continuing claims fared even worse. Economists predicted these claims would fall 600,000+ to 19.9 million. Instead, they fell a tenth of that - 62,000 - to leave total continuing claims at 20.5 million.

In this episode, NLW breaks down what we can learn from these numbers when they’re combined with the previously released May jobs report.

The Satoshi-fication of Social Media: Why The Future Is Pseudoanonymous, Feat. The Crypto Dog Jun 18, 2020

On the Brief:

Big tech vs. the American political right and left
Why TikTok users are pretending to love China for clout
Decentralizing venture capital

Our main conversation:

The Crypto Dog is one of crypto Twitter’s best known characters. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Mining bitcoin in 2011
The difficulty of hodling across a decade
The emergence of the crypto trader in the Ethereum era
Trader agnosticism
Pseudo-anonymity and social media
Developing the character behind the avatar
Global nomadism and the acceleration of “work from anywhere”
The vibe and feel of Hong Kong today

Find our guest online:Twitter: @TheCryptoDog

The Fed's Folly: From Moral Hazard to Business as Usual, Feat. Jesse Felder Jun 17, 2020

Today on The Brief:

An unexpectedly good retail sales report drives market confidence
Are we in for a second wave of white-collar layoffs?
The latest rumblings in central bank digital currencies

Our main conversation:

Jesse Felder is an independent financial analyst and one of the best financial curators on Twitter.

In this wide ranging conversation, he and NLW discuss:

The Robinhood rally and what makes it both alike and different from previous manias
The illusion of American recovery and the disconnect between markets and fundamentals
The Federal Reserve’s role in increasing economic inequality
Why the dollar is significantly overvalued relative to other currencies
Why financial assets could be poised for a rough decade

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @jessefelder
Website: The Felder Report

Sorry, Bloomberg: Here Are 6 Reasons Why 2020 Is a Great Year for Bitcoin Jun 15, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Stocks down on coronavirus fears
Demand destruction
The looming retirement crisis

Our main theme:

Bitcoin is up more than 30% on the year. After a crash alongside equities, it has proved incredibly resilient. There are famous new entrants to the space like Paul Tudor Jones II.

So how can a Bloomberg editor argue the year has been bad for bitcoin?

In this response podcast, NLW argues that most of the arguments are about narrative, not the underlying fundamentals. He presents six reasons why not only has it not been a bad year, but the exact opposite is true:

Demonstrated institutional uptake
Demonstrated resilience
New champions
Narrative fundamentals
Need in emerging markets
End of economic orthodoxy

BONUS: Rubbish Rallies and Investor Amnesia by the Finance History Guy Jamie Catherwood Jun 15, 2020

After a week where bankrupt Hertz pumped 890%, the question is: what is the historical precedent?

Luckily, we have finance history guy Jamie Catherwood to fill us in. In this essay "Rubbish Rallies" (written by Jamie, read by NLW), Catherwood tells the story of an 1820s scam that turned into an 1860s market mania - even though everyone knew it had been a scam the first go around.

History might not repeat, but it certainly rhymes.

This is a bonus episode of The Breakdown, recorded originally last week as part of a private beta test for new content forms. If you like this type of episode, let me know @nlw on Twitter.

The Chad Index Versus Doomer Internet Money: The Breakdown Weekly Recap Jun 13, 2020

The stock market has long been disconnected from the underlying economy, but much of what happened this week - particularly the pumping of bankrupt company stocks - suggests that something new is afoot.

In this episode, NLW breaks down three long-term trends suggested by the so-called Robinhood Rally, including:

The “insurgency” aspect of a generation of young professionals who are willing to play the financial game rather than have it be played for them
A totally new force in financial media, which could hit like a wrecking ball in one of the stodgiest, traditional media industries
An embrace of a certain type of cynicism or nihilism when it comes to the values of financial markets

This week on The Breakdown:

Monday | Why War Reporting Is the Right Mental Model for Today’s Media, Feat. Jake Hanrahan

The founder of Popular Front joins NLW for a discussion about protests, media and how the people being covered tend to not reflect divisive politics.

Tuesday | What the Stock Market’s ‘Robinhood Rally’ Means for Bitcoin

The largest 50-day rally in stock market history and even shares of bankrupt companies are up more than 100%. What is going on?

Wednesday | A Vision for Digital Property Rights, Feat. Nic Carter

Most people today look at social platforms like any other private company, but what if we saw them as alternative jurisdictions with a new set of property rights?

Thursday | Why the Fed Keeps Denying Its Role in Increasing Inequality

The Federal Reserve expects low inflation, says rates will stay close to zero through 2022 and keeps lying about the role of central banks in increasing inequality.

Friday | Bitcoin Is More Than an Inflation Hedge

While fears of a “great monetary inflation” have driven the recent bitcoin narrative, other aspects like censorship resistance and peaceful protest matter just as much.

Saturday | The Chad Index Versus Doomer Internet Money: The Breakdown Weekly Recap

This week, the wildest, most nonsensical, volatile part of the market wasn’t bitcoin, it was the “Robinhood Rally” in equities.

Avoiding the Narrative Trap: Bitcoin Is More Than an Inflation Hedge Jun 13, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Why bitcoin sold off
A bank-the-unbanked narrative for the digital dollar
It’s Dave Portnoy’s world and we’re all just living in it

Today’s main topic: Why inflation isn’t the only bitcoin narrative that matters.

When bitcoin’s halving coincided with the most aggressive central bank policy of all time, it set a clear narrative framework for bitcoin as an inflationary hedge. This was captured by people like legendary hedge fund investor Paul Tudor Jones, who warned of a “great monetary inflation.”

In this episode, NLW argues 1) that inflation could be a dangerous narrative to focus on too closely due to a number of countervailing deflationary forces, and 2) there are a variety of other narratives that are just as important to bitcoin, including:

Censorship resistance
Seizure-resistant asset
Currency controls and reshoring
Nations looking to escape USD system
Independent banking
Peaceful protest

Why the Fed Keeps Denying Its Role in Increasing Inequality Jun 12, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Three Arrows holds more than 6% of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
New platform for censorship-resistant blogging
Coinbase announces new token potentials as anti-surveillance hodlers flood out

Today’s main topic: Why the Fed keeps denying its role in inequality

Some key takeaways from yesterday’s Federal Open Markets Committee meeting:

Interest rates are likely to stay near zero through 2022
Unemployment anticipated to average between 9% and 10% during last three months of 2020
Economy expected to contract 4% to 10% this year
No specific discussion of yield curve control
Inflation expected to be 1.0% this year and 1.5% in 2021, lower than Fed target of 2%
According to Chairman Powell, inequality has nothing to do with Fed policy

On this episode, NLW recaps the above and dives deeper on two of the points:

Net inflation stats gloss over specifics, including food prices that have been rising at an annual rate of 17.5%
The Fed’s pronounced role in exacerbating inequality by propping up artificially high asset prices, effectively locking low and middle income households out of the mechanism for economic advancement

Bitcoin, Property Rights, and Why the Old West Says You Should Own Your Socials, feat. Nic Carter Jun 11, 2020

Today on the Brief:

A record week for peer-to-peer exchanges in the developing world
A digital dollar gets discussed in Congress
Previewing the Federal Reserve’s FOMC guidance

Our main topic: A brainstorm on digital property rights

Here’s a radical idea. What if by virtue of the fact that you had put so much time and effort into building a following on social media and filling that following with content you had legal claim to and distinct property rights around your corner of social media platforms?

It’s wild in the context of today’s terms of service, but has significant legal precedent in the world of physical land.

In this new type of deep-dive 20-minute episode we’re calling a “Breakdown Brainstorm,” Castle Island Ventures investor Nic Carter looks at:

The two schools of thought around digital property rights
The historical precedent for squatter’s rights
What the specific example of the USA’s Westward Expansion can teach us
Why this type of approach can be highly economically generative, according to economists like De Soto
How John Locke’s theories provide a moral basis for the argument
Why today’s platforms are akin to anti-democratic feudal lords
How bitcoin provides a model and a mechanism for digital rights enforced on the protocol level rather than by a state or other external actor

Find our guest online:Twitter: @nic__carterWebsite: niccarter.info

What the Stock Market’s ‘Robinhood Rally’ Means for Bitcoin Jun 10, 2020

Today on the Brief:

Saudi Arabia injects $13 billion in bank liquidity via blockchain.
China’s state TV CCTV says Binance is still allowing crypto trading in China.
MakerDAO community greenlights real world collateral.

Our main topic: The “Robinhood Revolution.”

The next time someone tells you crypto markets are too irrational or volatile, point them to stock markets right now.

The largest 50-day rally in history
Every S&P 500 stock up from 10 weeks ago
Multiple bankrupt companies up more than 100% since they declared bankruptcy

This is the “Robinhood Revolution,” as a horde of day traders are outperforming billionaire investors and commanding the stock market narrative.

This episode looks at:

Who is this new generation of investors
Why they’re so active right now
What they’re betting will go up
Why they don’t care about earnings, balance sheets or any other fundamentals
Four scenarios for how this rally could have an impact on the bitcoin and crypto industry

Why War Reporting Is the Right Mental Model for Today’s Media, Feat. Jake Hanrahan Jun 09, 2020

On today’s episode of The Breakdown, we introduce the Breakdown Brief - a look at three key topics in bitcoin and crypto. Today, the Brief covers:

Brave browsers auto adding ref links to Binance.us
The disconnect between Wall Street and crypto when it comes to inflation expectations
A 2018 Pentagon war game including bitcoin

Our featured interview is with Jake Hanrahan, founder of Popular Front - a podcast and independent media company covering underreported and irregular conflict with “no frills, no elitism.” Jake was previously an embedded reporter with Vice and has covered conflict in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Ukraine and elsewhere.

In this conversation, Jake and NLW discuss:

Why Jake left Vice and decided to build an independent journalism project
Why the mainstream media isn’t bad because of some political conspiracy, but because its business model doesn’t allow it to understand how real people are experiencing issues
How the protests are being (mis)covered around the world
Why American protests are going global
What he learned covering protests in Hong Kong last year
What situations people should be paying attention to around the world that they’re not right now

The Revolution Will Be Retweeted: The Breakdown Weekly Recap Jun 06, 2020

The Breakdown Weekly Recap looks at the key themes that shaped the week. On this week’s episode, NLW discusses:

The modern significance of Tiananmen Square, and why this week’s U.S. protests show why the tools of surveillance need to be applied to states, not citizens.
The importance of “narrative violations,” or fighting to see things without falling into popular but often wrong conventional wisdoms
The need to resist attempts from both the left and the right to fit today’s unrest into convenient culture-war frameworks that perpetuate each group’s power.

This week on The Breakdown:

Monday | The Power and Peril of the 'Bitcoin Fixes This' Meme

A look at what role, if any, bitcoin has to play in remaking the world that is being protested around the U.S. (and world) this week.

Tuesday | Bitcoin, Cellphones and the Citizen Tools of Anti-Authoritarianism, Feat. Alex Gladstein

A look at the anti-authoritarian technology stack, including where non-state money like bitcoin fits in.

Wednesday | 5 Numbers That Tell the Story of Markets Right Now

From the number of U.S. flights from Chinese carriers to S&P 500 growth in the tumultuous year of 1968, these (unexpected) numbers tell the story of today’s markets.

Thursday | The Mirage of the Money Printer: Why the Fed Is More PR Than Policy, Feat. Jeffrey P. Snider

An argument that the Fed is actually highly ineffectual due to the presence of the eurodollar shadow-banking system.

Friday | The Biggest Realignment in the US-China Relationship Since Nixon, Feat. Graham Webster

A 101-level primer on the history of the U.S.-China relationship, and why today’s bluster represents a fundamental shift.

Everything You Need To Know About The US & China: The Biggest Realignment Since Nixon, Feat. Graham Webster Jun 06, 2020

The U.S.-China relationship has an outsized impact on global economics and politics. As that relationship comes even more into focus in the wake of COVID-19 and a return of trade tensions, this episode provides a historical primer.

Graham Webster is editor-in-chief of the Stanford–New America DigiChina Project at the Stanford University Cyber Policy Center. He’s also a China digital economy fellow at the New America think tank.

In this episode, Webster explains:

Why the relationship with the U.S. has been at the forefront of Chinese policy since the People’s Republic of China was formed, but has flitted in and out of America’s focus.
Why the first most significant period in the U.S.-China relationship came between the late 1960s and 1970s, as the U.S.-China relationship normalized.
How Tiananmen Square undermined but didn’t destroy the relationship.
Why George W. Bush came into office with an intention to focus on China but got distracted in the wake of 9/11.
Why China has spent the last decade becoming increasingly illiberal.
How the rise of social media contributed to the shift.
Why China and U.S. policy is as much a reflection of domestic self-identity in both countries as it is a bilateral political question.
Why China’s human rights abuses present such a challenge.
How COVID-19 changes the relationship.

Find our guest online:

Twitter: gwbstr

Website: DigiChina

The Mirage of the Money Printer: Why the Fed Is More PR Than Policy, Feat. Jeffrey P. Snider Jun 05, 2020

The conventional wisdom is that central banks are the most important economic actors in the world. Markets hang on their every word.

Yet, what if that power has less to do with actual monetary policy and more to do with how the performance of that policy creates a self-fulfilling prophecy as market actors respond to media coverage?

Jeff Snider is the head of global research at Alhambra Investments. In this conversation, he and NLW explore:

How the Fed lost the ability to even determine what the money supply is.
How the financialization in the 1980s exacerbated monetary confusion.
Why the most important force in the global economy isn’t central banks but the eurodollar and shadow banking system.
How the eurodollar and shadow banking sector creates a drag on real economic growth.
Why the conventional wisdom and “central bank savior” narrative around 2008 was dead wrong.
The problem with “survivor’s euphoria.”
Why “money printer go brr” is actually a flood myth.

5 Numbers That Tell the Story of Markets Right Now Jun 04, 2020

Every day that protests continue and the stock market goes up, more people ask what the disconnect between markets and the real economy is. In this episode of The Breakdown, NLW peels back the story of today’s economy by looking at five numbers:

The growth of the S&P500 since the March 23 low
Current unemployment stats and a Bloomberg Economics estimate of the number of jobs at risk
The performance of the S&P500 in 1968, one of the most tumultuous years in American history
The total percentage of the world’s debt denominated in dollar terms
The number of flights between the US and China by Chinese airlines going forward

Bitcoin, Cellphones and the Citizen Tools of Anti-Authoritarianism, Feat. Alex Gladstein Jun 03, 2020

Alex Gladstein is the chief strategy officer of the Human Rights Foundation. He is a powerful voice for the role of bitcoin in combating authoritarianism around the globe.

In today's episode, he and NLW discuss:

What the protests tell us about the state of democracy in the U.S.
The potential impact of protests and COVID-19 on surveillance norms
The potential for a "biological Patriot Act"
The implications of China's push to absorb Hong Kong
The relevance or irrelevance of China's digital currency
The role of bitcoin in promoting freedom

The Power and Peril of the 'Bitcoin Fixes This' Meme Jun 02, 2020

Cities around the country have been engulfed in protest in the wake of the murder of 46-year-old black man George Floyd. There is an intense battle for the narrative around the protests. Are they legitimate outcries against institutional racism and police brutality? Is the looting covertly being driven by white supremacists on the one hand or ANTIFA on the other?

In the Bitcoin community, some have plumbed the “Bitcoin Fixes This” meme to argue that the core underlying issue has to do with a monetary system that structurally creates inequality. Others have clapped back against pushing that meme in this moment.

In this episode of The Breakdown, NLW looks at:

What bitcoiners are trying to say when they apply the “Bitcoin Fixes This” meme to this moment.
Why the current system structurally exacerbates inequality.
Why the meme fails to capture additional economic, political and power dimensions of what’s going on.
Why the meme in this moment might feel so out of place as to inspire the opposite of its intended effect: turning people away from bitcoin rather than making them want to learn more.
Why Satoshi’s “If you don’t get it, I don’t have time to explain it to you” quote is the most misused and abused of his sayings.
Why complexity and nuance, not memes, are needed now.

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | May 30 2020 May 30, 2020

The week's episodes in one convenient file.

The Battle for the Future of Money, feat. Lawrence Summers, CZ, Michelle Phan, the Winklevoss brothers, The Chainsmokers and more. [Money Reimagined Episode 4] May 30, 2020

As the economic dimension of the COVID-19 crisis comes into clearer view, what have we learned about the battle for the future of money? Does the dollar reign supreme? Are within-the-system competitors like the euro or China’s digital yuan gaining ground? Does an outside the system alternative like bitcoin stand a chance?

Over the last month, the “Money Reimagined” series has looked at the battle for the future of money.

Episode 1 focused on the dollar and why it is simultaneously stronger and more set up to fail than ever before.

Catch up: Why the Dollar Has Never Been Stronger or More Set Up to Fail

Episode 2 was all about the obvious contenders to replace the dollar such as the euro or China’s currency, especially as they race towards a digital yuan. It also looked at where Facebook’s Libra might fit in the mix.

Catch up: The Rise of the Dollar Killers

Episode 3 looked at one of the most unique features of this modern currency battle - the fact that there are fundamentally new systems like bitcoin in the running. Can a non-sovereign currency actually be more relevant than global fiats?

Catch up: Where Bitcoin Fits in the New Monetary Order

This final episode of the “Money Reimagined” series checks in on each of the previous episodes but brings a new set of voices to the mix. Between May 11 and May 14, CoinDesk hosted Consensus:Distributed, a virtual summit featuring some of the leading lights in crypto, finance, economics and pop culture. In this episode, we hear from those voices, including:

Lawrence Summers - former U.S. Treasury Secretary
Christopher Giancarlo - former Chairman of the CFTC
Michelle Phan - YouTube innovator and founder of Ipsy
Chaoping Zhao - founder and CEO of Binance
The Winklevoss brothers - founders of Gemini
The Chainsmokers - Grammy-winning artists
Carlota Perez - influential economist

The Geopolitical Implications of a Too-Strong Dollar, Feat. Brent Johnson May 29, 2020

You know the meme: Money printer go brrr. It means inflation right?

Not necessarily, says Brent Johnson. Since 2016-2017, Johnson has been arguing the big economic issue of our time isn’t inflation of the U.S. dollar due to excess money printing, but the havoc caused by a global system where the dollar keeps getting stronger and sucks up liquidity from the rest of the world.

As the dollar has strengthened over the COVID-19 crisis, his ideas look more prescient than ever. In this conversation with NLW, Johnson discusses:

What the “Dollar Milkshake Theory” is
Why the implications of the theory stress him out, even though he created it
Why everything is relative and no asset can be analyzed in a vacuum
Why we could see the dollar, bitcoin and gold rise at the same time
Why we can’t discuss macroeconomics without discussing geopolitics and even the military

Why Innovation Matters (and How Not to Screw It Up), Feat. Matt Ridley May 28, 2020

Twenty-one different people can reasonably claim to have invented the light bulb, but Thomas Edison is the one we know about. Was it just good PR? According to Matt Ridley, it was because Edison was the progenitor of an “innovation factory” that didn’t just create things but brought them to market in a way no one else did.

Innovation is one of the most important forces in the economy, and arguably the most important driver of human prosperity over the last century. Yet, for most of its life, it has been viewed as some strange exogenous force, rather than as a discipline that could be understood.

In this conversation with NLW and Ridley discuss:

Why it took so long for economists to take the study of innovation seriously
Why invention is different from innovation
Why innovation has tended to concentrate in geographically proximate areas
Why free societies produce more innovation than closed societies (including empires)
Why China’s innovation production over the last decade may be an exception that proves the rule of innovation thriving in freedom
Why government winner picking is a terrible way to inspire innovation
Why innovation policy led Matt to support Brexit
The rational, optimistic take on the future

Deglobalization and Other Narrative Violations, Feat. Geoff Lewis May 27, 2020

The battle to control narratives is the battle to shape how people understand the world around them. But the traditional gatekeepers of narratives - the media - have never had more competition to shape what is perceived as truth.

In this episode, NLW speaks with Bedrock Capital founder Geoff Lewis about what it means to seek out opportunities in “narrative violations.” They also discuss:

Why de-globalization and “onshoring” are likely to be among the most important economic drivers in the U.S. in the coming decade
Why the shift to working from home may be an overblown “narrative mirage”
How important questions of institutional decay have been co-opted by the culture war
Why independent, individuals in the media have more influence than ever
Why we’re in a “narrative mirage recovery”

Dollar Dilemmas & Central Banks Gone Wild: The Best Of The Breakdown April/May 2020 May 25, 2020

Highlights from some of the most interesting conversations on The Breakdown from the last two months.

4/1 - Peter Zeihan on why the world we’ve known for 30 years is changing forever
4/6 - Emerson Spartz on a moment of punctuated equilibrium
4/17 - Jared Dillian on the political football of stock buy backs
4/21 - Joe McCann on how financial engineering came to dominate Wall Street
4/22 - Luke Gromen on the genesis of the global monetary order and why the US switched off the gold standard in 1971
5/1 - Danielle DiMartino Booth on how the Federal Reserve moved from incompetent to corrupt
5/9 - Niall Ferguson on a shift back to a multipolar, multi-currency world
5/14 - Jeff Booth on why technology deflation competes with inflationary monetary policy
5/20 - Lyn Alden on the negative impacts of a too-strong dollar
5/22 - Tuomas Malinen on why dismantling the Euro may be the only way to save the European Union

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | May 23 2020 May 23, 2020

The complete week's shows in one convenient episode

Monday | Economic Freedom in the World After Capital, feat. Albert Wenger
Tuesday | Lessons from the Financial History of Pandemics, feat. Jamie Catherwood
Wednesday | Why a Strong Dollar Is Bad for the US and Bad for the World, feat. Lyn Alden
Thursday | ‘Dismantle the Euro to Save Europe’ Feat. Tuomas Malinen
Friday | The Shadow of Satoshi’s Ghost: Why Bitcoin Mythology Matters

In The Shadow of Satoshi's Ghost: Why Bitcoin Mythology Matters May 23, 2020

On Wednesday, a batch of coins mined just a month after bitcoin’s birth were moved. It was the first time since August 2017 that any bitcoin from early 2009 had been transferred, and the action set Bitcoin Twitter on fire. While a number of bitcoin archaeologists quickly and persuasively argued the tokens were almost assuredly not mined by bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto, it was a moment that reinforced the living history in the bitcoin ecosystem.

In this episode, NLW looks at what makes the Satoshi mythology powerful:

Genuine technical innovation and problem solving that had stymied some brilliant minds for decades
Incredible instincts around narrative and human psychology, as reflected in the “Chancellor on the Brink” message embedded in the Genesis Block and the ceremony around the halving
The incredible contrariness of a creator withdrawing in a world where entrepreneurs are lionized like no one else in society

And while the battles within the bitcoin community around interpretation may look more like the early history of religions than like a business ecosystem, NLW argues that fervor is a key part of what de-risks bitcoin, even for investors who don’t at all care about the mythology.

‘Dismantle the Euro to Save Europe’ Feat. Tuomas Malinen May 22, 2020

The European Union and the euro are part of the most ambitious political and economic experiment of the 21st century. The COVID-19 crisis, however, has exacerbated growing questions of political will and political legitimacy and led some to wonder if the eurozone can survive.

Tuomas Malinen is the CEO of GnS Economics, a macroeconomic advisory firm, and Adj. Professor of Economics at the University of Helsinki. In this interview, he and NLW discuss:

Why the European debt crisis was actually a “morally corrupt bank recapitalization project”
Why negative interest rates and quantitative easing made the European banking sector particularly weak even before the pandemic
Why the German Constitutional Court’s battle with the European Central Bank has major implications for the entire euro system
Why European leaders are pushing for deeper integration when citizens want more lightweight integration
Why European nations would be more likely to support one another in bilateral arrangements rather than through forced solidarity
Why the only way to save the European Union might be to let the euro fade away

Why a Strong Dollar Is Bad for the US and Bad for the World, feat. Lyn Alden May 21, 2020

The dollar has a unique role in the world due to its reserve currency status. For many years that status has created incredible opportunities for the U.S. Increasingly, however, some are wondering if the global standard has outlived its usefulness - not only for the world but for the U.S., too.

In this illuminating conversation, one of FinTwit’s brightest minds, Lyn Alden, shares her perspective on:

Why we’re at the end of a strong dollar cycle
Why the Federal Reserve is terrified of the global dollar shortage
The difference in creditor vs. debtor nations
The concept of the Triffin dilemma
Why Japan has been able to print money without seeing rampant inflation
Why we have inflationary and deflationary forces competing to influence the U.S. economy
Why debt is going to matter more than ever
What alternatives to the USD system might look like

Lessons from the Financial History of Pandemics, feat. Jamie Catherwood May 20, 2020

Jamie Catherwood works at O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, a quantitative long-equity investment firm. More importantly, however, he is the finance history guy on Twitter. His “Financial History: Sunday Reads” curation pieces and longer form articles on his site Investor Amnesia have become required reading for anyone who wants the historical context for current financial issues.

On this episode of The Breakdown, Jamie and NLW discuss:

Financial lessons from previous pandemics, including the 14th century bubonic plague; an 1892 Cholera outbreak in Hamburg, Germany; and, of course, 1918
Strange parallels between 1918’s Spanish flu and the currentcCoronavirus crisis, including an increase in the price of oranges
The concept of “Minsky Moments, a key inflection point in bubbles where over-exuberant markets become unwound extremely quickly

Economic Freedom in the World After Capital, feat. Albert Wenger May 19, 2020

Albert Wenger is a partner at Union Square Ventures as well as a prolific thinker and writer. His “World After Capital” is an evolving digital book project that looks at a set of megatrend shifts as the world moves between economic paradigms from the Industrial Age to the Knowledge Age.

In this wide-ranging conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Why attention is at the center of the new Knowledge Age
Why markets can’t price crucial needs such as pandemic preparedness
Why the new era will be defined by three categories of freedoms: economic freedom, information freedom and psychological freedom
Why universal basic income has an important role to play in economic freedom
How UBI could avoid political capture
Why technology is inherently deflationary
Why real estate, education and health care should be much cheaper than they are
Why community currencies could be a key innovation from the current crisis

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | May 16 2020 May 16, 2020

The complete week's shows in one convenient file

Monday | The Great Monetary Inflation: Paul Tudor Jones' Complete Case For Bitcoin
Tuesday | How We Future Now - Live With Kathleen Breitman, Caitlin Long and More
Wednesday | A Coming Reckoning: Why The Fed Can't Outspend Deflation, feat. Jeff Booth
Thursday | Surveying The Carnage: Movies, Sports, and Education in Crisis
Friday | The Great Inflation Escape: Where Bitcoin Fits In the New Monetary Order [Money Reimagined Pt. 3]

The Great Inflation Escape: Where Bitcoin Fits In the New Monetary Order [Money Reimagined Pt. 3] May 16, 2020

Niall Ferguson has called this moment an “age of experimentation” when it comes to currencies.

One of the unique features of this moment is the experiments are not limited to the traditional actors. It is not just nation-states trying to elevate their currencies in the face of the global dominance of the dollar, but non-sovereign monies born of decentralized networks that are plausible contenders in this game of currency thrones.

Bitcoin was a byproduct of the last financial crisis. This connection was immortalized in the message embedded in the genesis block: “Jan 03/2009 Chancellor on the brink of a second bailout for banks.”

More than a decade on, in our new financial crisis, the size, scale and implications of that bank bailout seem positively quaint in comparison.

This episode looks at where bitcoin and other permissionless, non-state cryptocurrencies fit in the battle for the future of money.

It starts with a look at the bitcoin narrative in the wake of the market crash. With the most significant stock market correlation of its life, did bitcoin’s digital gold narrative evaporate alongside the S&P 500?

From there, we move to an asset that has been massively in demand since the beginning of the crisis: USD stablecoins. We explore whether this is simply an affirmation of the supremacy of the dollar or represents a more disruptive force in the global monetary order.

We conclude with a look at the relevance of bitcoin on the other side of the crisis. As the market moves from deflationary to inflationary, there are many who will be looking to hard assets and sound money as a cure. In that context, bitcoin could thrive.

Surveying The Carnage: Movies, Sports, and Education in Crisis May 15, 2020

This is the second in a series of episodes on how the economic crisis is challenging and transforming different industries. NLW looks at:

Movies

Direct releases are already making more than box office counterparts
AMC is on the verge of bankruptcy (or buyout by Amazon)
Production is on hold and even when it resumes, likely to have strict rules on how it is carried out

Sports

Depending on your study, between 61% and 72% of people surveyed say they’re unlikely to go to live sporting events even after lockdowns are lifted
Colleges losing $18B+ in sports related revenue
eSports alternatives surging - with conversations on Twitter up 71%

Advertising

Industry took 8 years to recover from Great Financial Crisis
Ad spending already down massively in March/April - down 38% in digital, 41% on TV, 45% on Radio, 51% on outdoor.

Education

Of public schools, only 22% are offering any live instruction
Before crisis, college debt had increased 107% between 2009-2019
Since the 80s, cost to attend college had grown 8x the growth in wages
Estimates of 15% fewer enrollments and $23B in lost revenue

A Coming Reckoning: Why The Fed Can't Outspend Deflation, feat. Jeff Booth May 14, 2020

Two powerful and diametrically opposed forces are shaping the economy.

On the one hand is inflationary economic policy, which keeps the price of assets like real estate and stocks rising ever higher, but at the expense of savings as the value of currency depreciates.

On the other is technology-wrought deflation. As technology increases its capacity exponentially, it causes everything it touches to be less expensive.

Jeff Booth is the author of “The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation Is the Key to an Abundant Future.” In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

How today’s system came to be designed
Why policy makers are terrified of deflation
Why inflationary policy punishes savers and forces them into riskier markets
How policy that prioritizes asset holders over savers has significantly exacerbated inequality
Why each dollar of debt is producing less real economic growth than ever before
Why proposed “solutions” like MMT and UBI paper over the root causes of the problem

How We Future Now - Live With Kathleen Breitman, Caitlin Long and More May 13, 2020

There is a shared sense that the world has shifted. Now begins the messy work of figuring out what it means for the future we’re headed into.

This live episode of The Breakdown podcast with NLW features four conversations about how the future is shifting before our very eyes.

How We Game and Entertain Now - featuring Kathleen Breitman, co-founder of Tezos and founder of blockchain game studio Coase
How We Identity Now - featuring Muneeb Ali, CEO of Blockstack
How We Bank Now - featuring Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Avanti Financial Group
How We Event Now - featuring CoinDesk’s Joon Ian Wong

The Great Monetary Inflation: Paul Tudor Jones' Complete Case For Bitcoin May 12, 2020

Jones' letter lays out his bitcoin and macro thesis.

Last week, investing legend Paul Tudor Jones rocked the world of crypto and traditional markets with his full throated entrance into the bitcoin market via his latest letter to Tudor BVI investors.

While the headlines (and the quick price bump on the back of FOMO buying) were great, the story is even more interesting than the soundbyte.

In this episode, NLW breaks down Paul Tudor Jones complete case for bitcoin, looking at:

The context and previous attitudes towards bitcoin of both authors of the letter
The “Great Monetary Inflation” thesis driving a focus on stores of value
How money supply growth compared to real economic output growth hasn’t been this out of sync since inflationary periods in the 1970s and 1980s
The “Inflation Race” - a list of 8 potential inflation hedges
The four categories by which a store of value can be judged: purchasing power, trustworthiness, liquidity, portability
A ranked look at bitcoin, gold, fiat, and financial assets in the context of those four categories.

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | May 9 2020 May 09, 2020

The week's complete show run in one convenient file.

Monday | Why Buffett’s Bearishness Should End V-Shaped Recovery Talk
Tuesday | Why Crypto Matters for Financial Inclusion, Feat. Celo's Marek Olszewski
Wednesday | Surveying the Carnage: How Real Estate, Travel and Music Are Faring During the Crisis
Thursday | 9 Reasons Why Bitcoin Has Never Been Stronger Going Into A Halving
Friday | The Rise Of The Dollar Killers, Feat. Niall Ferguson & More [Money Reimagined - Part 2]

Could These Currencies Be Dollar Killers? Feat. Niall Ferguson & More [Money Reimagined - Part 2] May 09, 2020

Libra, the Euro, China's DCEP.

Do any of these currencies have a chance at displacing the dollar in the global order? Or is it possible - as Niall Ferguson suggestions on this episode - that we're poised to shift back to a multipollar, multi-currency world?

The second in our four-part documentary micro-series on the battle for the future of money.

Also featuring Michael Casey, Matthew Graham, Katherine Wu, Peter Zeihan, Luke Gromen and more.

Music by DJ J-Scrilla "Faith In My Money (Money Printer Go Brrr)" from the new “Sound Money” album.

9 Reasons Why Bitcoin Has Never Been Stronger Going Into A Halving May 08, 2020

The bitcoin halving is just a few days away and the growing excitement is palpable. On this episode of The Breakdown, NLW argues that the excitement is also legitimate, and looks at nine reasons why bitcoin has never been stronger going into one of its every-four-year issuance reductions:

Price
Hash rate
Mining competition
Accessibility and Services
Infrastructure
Institutional awareness and participation
Narrative relevance
Perceived and real resilience
Lindy effects

Oh, and let’s not forget. Paul Tudor Jones just disclosed that he is invested in bitcoin and sees it as a hedge against ‘great monetary inflation’

Surveying the Carnage: How Real Estate, Travel and Music Are Faring During the Crisis May 07, 2020

The second order effects of the COVID-19 crisis are here, and they’re painful. In this episode, NLW looks at how COVID is impacting three industries:

Travel and tourism
- 100m lost jobs expected globally
- $2.7 in lost GDP
- Airbnb lays of 25% of employees
Music & Concerts
- From a record $12.2B concert year to a loss of $9B
- Expectations of concert prohibition lasting up to two years
- Industry organizing to be included in relief
Real Estate
- Commercial real estate expecting 2.5% default rate for 5+ years
- Negotiations around sales-based payment instead of traditional rent
- Residential sees cratering demand but home prices remain up year over year

Why Crypto Matters for Financial Inclusion, Feat. Celo's Marek Olszewski May 06, 2020

Around the world, an estimated 1.7 billion people remain unbanked and lacking access to high quality financial services.

Some projects see cryptocurrency as an answer. In this episode of The Breakdown, NLW speaks with Celo co-founder Marek Olszewski about:

How Celo was designed differently to address financial inclusion as a primary use case
The problems with centralized approaches to mobile money like m-pesa
Why true financial inclusions solutions must be permissionless
Why technology design isn’t enough and projects that seek to gain adoption require ground up go to market strategies
The impact of Libra’s launch on the “bank the unbanked” narrative
How the COVID-19 crisis has changed the narrative around and demand for stabelcoins globally

Why Buffett’s Bearishness Should End V-Shaped Recovery Talk May 05, 2020

One month after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, Warren Buffett wrote an Op-Ed saying that he was buying stocks. Yet during the Coronavirus crisis, he is sitting firmly on the sidelines.

On Saturday night, the “Oracle of Omaha” spoke for 4.5 hours in the first ever virtual version of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting - an event which some have called the “Woodstock of Capitalism.”

On this episode, NLW examines some of the key topics of the presentation, including:

Why Berkshire sold their entire $6.5B stake in the airline industry
Why they were sitting on $137B in cash
Why they haven’t made any investments
How the Fed gave companies better terms than they were willing to

It was hard not to watch the presentation and conclude that Buffett feels that there are simply too many unknowns in the world going forward to feel comfortable doing much in the market right now.

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | May 2 2020 May 02, 2020

The week's episodes in one long run.

Monday | Bitcoin vs. QE Infinity: The 4 Archetypes Of The Halving Debate
Tuesday | The Mass Surveillance Machine, Feat. Maya Zehavi
Wednesday | When Currencies Fail: A Primer on the Crisis in Lebanon
Thursday | From Corrupt To Broken: An Insider’s Analysis Of The Fed, feat. Danielle DiMartino Booth
Friday | Why The Dollar Has Never Been Stronger Or More Set Up To Fail [Money Reimagined Pt. 1]

Why The Dollar Has Never Been Stronger Or More Set Up To Fail [Money Reimagined Pt. 1] May 02, 2020

The first of a 4-part docu-style series on the battle for the future of money.

In this first episode of Money Reimagined, we look at:

Why US markets took so long to react
How the stock market became a political utility
Why, even before the crisis, “increasingly exotic forms of quantitative easing” were inevitable
Why the bailouts have some investors accusing our entire market of being cronyism rather than capitalism
What unlimited money printing means for the US dollar.

Featuring insight from Matthew Graham, Caitlin Long, Scott Melker, Kevin Kelly, Ben Hunt, Luke Gromen, Travis Kling, Mark Yusko, Anthony Pompliano, Jared Dillian, Dave Portnoy, Michael Casey, Preston Pysh, Peter Zeihan

Music by DJ J-Scrilla "Faith In My Money (Money Printer Go Brrr)" from the “Sound Money” album.

From Corrupt To Broken: An Insider’s Analysis Of The Fed, feat. Danielle DiMartino Booth May 01, 2020

Danielle DiMartino Booth is the CEO and Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence. Before that, however, after correctly predicting the mortgage meltdown, she was called upon to serve and spent 9 years as an advisor to the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. That experience led her to write “Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America.”

In this episode, Danielle and NLW discuss:

How the Fed went from simply corrupt to corrupt and broken
Why we’ve been living through the largest experiment in monetary policy history
Why interest rates are the lowest they’ve been in 5000 years
Why COVID-19 was the pin, not the balloon
Why current Fed action compromises the Fed’s independence
Why the market structure incentivizes consumption and risk investment over savings
Why risk investments have ceased to be risky because of Fed backstopping
Why a key concern going forward is a second wave of COVID-19 layoffs in industries beyond the obviously impacted

When Currencies Fail: A Primer on the Crisis in Lebanon Apr 30, 2020

The Lebanese pound has lost at least 50% of its value since last year. 220,000 people have lost their jobs. Food prices are up 58%. An estimated 75% of the population needs assistance of some kind. And over the last two nights, at least a dozen banks have been torched by protesters.

The catalyst? Not coronavirus, but a massive dollar shortage that is destroying an economy that relies on inflows of USD to function.

In this episode, NLW breaks down how Lebanon models what it looks like for a currency to fail, and why this likely isn’t the last emerging market currency to experience a similar crisis in the months to come.

The Mass Surveillance Machine, Feat. Maya Zehavi Apr 29, 2020

As the COVID-19 crisis rages, it takes on new economic and political dimensions. The frames for many of the most important questions for the next decade are being set now, in this moment.

On this episode of The Breakdown, NLW is joined by Maya Zehavi, a long-time blockchain consultant known for her insightful domain-spanning takes.

They discuss:

How the COVID-19 health crisis overlapped with a political crisis in Zehavi’s home country of Israel
Why governments use times of crisis to take extraordinary powers
How contact tracing apps have become a battleground for mass surveillance
Why the shift to localism from globalism creates new challenges
How the problems distributing stimulus are shaping the conversation around central bank digital currencies

Bitcoin vs. QE Infinity: The 4 Archetypes Of The Halving Debate Apr 27, 2020

The bitcoin halving is just two weeks away. While the COVID-19 crisis pushed attention off the momentous event for a while, the discussion is coming back fast and strong. Google searches for the bitcoin halving already exceeding the 2016 peak, despite almost no mainstream media coverage.

In this episode, NLW breaks down 4 archetypes of people within the larger debates around the bitcoin halving:

Speculators - those who flock to Twitter to engage in endless rounds of debate around the efficient market hypothesis and whether the halving is priced in or not
Fundamentals - those who believe that what matters about the halving isn’t the short-term price movement but the fundamental decrease in supply
Miners - those who have to actually figure out how to make their business model work in the context of reduced issuance
Symbologists - those who are focusing on the significance of bitcoin’s issuance reduction coinciding with QE infinity

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | April 25 Apr 25, 2020

The full week's content in a single convenient long-run episode.

Monday | Bearish or Bullish? What Oil, DeFi Hacks and Cash Hoarding Tell Us About Markets
Tuesday | From Proof of Health to UBI: How Everything Changes Post COVID-19, Feat. Joe McCann
Wednesday | The History of the Dollar System From Bretton Woods to QE Infinity, Feat. Luke Gromen
Thursday | We Don’t Need Big Brother To Beat This Virus
Friday | Why Bitcoin Is Freedom Money, Feat. Yan Pritzker

Why Bitcoin Is Freedom Money, Feat. Yan Pritzker Apr 24, 2020

Yan Pritzker is the CTO and cofounder of Swan Bitcoin, an automated bitcoin only investing app aiming to be the best onramp to bitcoin. He is also the author of Inventing Bitcoin.

On this episode, he and NLW discuss:

How immigrating from the Soviet Union taught Yan about capital controls
Buying bitcoin at $30 in 2011
Why the type of capital available shapes what type of startups entrepreneurs found
Why venture capitals focused investments away from bitcoin
The emergence of a bitcoin only startup scene
Starting a startup during the COVID-19 crisis
Why bitcoin’s scarcity is its most important property

We Don’t Need Big Brother To Beat This Virus Apr 23, 2020

One of the key aspects of most plans to reopen the economy is digital contact tracing. This would be an apparatus whereby mobile phones kept track of the other mobile phones they had been physically proximate to, so that if someone were diagnosed with COVID-19, the at-risk people they had been in contact with could be notified. Apple and Google have proposed one plan while a European consortium is working on another.

At the center of the issue is whether contact tracing can be done in a way that doesn’t violate privacy and doesn’t open a Pandora’s box of new issues around the data governments have on their citizens.

Today’s episode of The Breakdown explores the crypto community’s response to contact tracing and why we don’t need big brother to beat the virus.

The History of the Dollar System From Bretton Woods to QE Infinity, Feat. Luke Gromen Apr 22, 2020

QE infinity. Corporate bailouts. Nudging UBI. The incredible economic phenomena going on now didn’t happen out of the blue. They are the byproducts of a key events spread across the 70 year history of the US dollar led global monetary system.

Luke Gromen is the founder of Forest From The Trees, a macro/thematic research firm. In this episode, Luke provides a TL;DR on those key events that got us to where we are today, including:

Bretton Woods and why the world went on a USD-based system rather than Keynes idea for a non-sovereign ‘bancor’ world reserve currency
The move to the Petrodollar in the 1970s
The financialization of commodities that started in the 1980s
The monetary policy vacuum after the Cold War ended
How a shift in executive compensation rules led to many of today’s problems with Wall Street
The export of Treasury Bills as a business model
The fallout of 2008 globally and domestically
The end of Treasury Bill buying in 2014
Why the Fed is the only sugar daddy left

From Proof of Health to UBI: How Everything Changes Post COVID-19, Feat. Joe McCann Apr 21, 2020

Joe McCann currently works in cloud and AI at Microsoft and has spent decades in tech, crypto, and open source communities. He recently wrote a piece called “A New, New World Order” all about the second and third order effects of Covid-19.

In this conversation, Joe and NLW discuss:

Localism and the beginning of the end of globalization
The return of domestic manufacturing
The ‘Roaring 20s’ of Inflation
The inevitability of Universal Basic Income in response to inflation
QE infinity and the US’s nationalization by proxy
National healthcare as national security and why microbes are this decade’s terrorists
Proof of health, and why it’s likely to be implemented on a blockchain

Bearish or Bullish? What Oil, DeFi Hacks and Cash Hoarding Tell Us About Markets Apr 20, 2020

It’s hard to look at recent news from both crypto and traditional markets and not feel like we’re getting pretty mixed signals. Stocks have been recovering, but oil is hitting historic lows. DeFi suffers a major hack over the weekend, but Coinbase sees a major spike in $1200 transactions right as $1200 stimulus checks hit. Cash hoarding is giving pretence for eliminating privacy-preserving money, but one of the world’s most successful hedge funds has authorized investment in bitcoin futures.

On today’s episode of The Breakdown, NLW separates bullish from bearish signals for the strange in between times.

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | April 18 2020 Apr 18, 2020

The entire week's shows in one convenient episode

Monday | Off
Tuesday | The $20,000 Human IPO & 5 Other Stories That Have Nothing to Do With COVID-19
Wednesday | What the Economy Will Look Like 6 Months From Now, Feat. Ryan Selkis
Thursday | Libra vs. China's DCEP? The Battle for the Future of Money Heats Up
Friday | Why Money Is Losing Its Meaning, feat. Jared Dillian

Why Money Is Losing Its Meaning, feat. Jared Dillian Apr 17, 2020

Bitcoiners are particularly sensitive to Fed intervention in markets, but the degree to which the Fed is willing to print to backstop basically all risk is drawing the attention of even normal market participants.

On this episode of The Breakdown, NLW is joined by Jared Dillian, market analyst, contrarian, and editor of The Daily Dirt Nap. They discuss:

What ‘safe haven’ means in today’s climate
How Jared became a bitcoin believer after being a skeptic
Why in an MMT world, taxation policy will be driven by ideology not practicality
Why money is losing its meaning

Libra vs. China's DCEP? The Battle for the Future of Money Heats Up Apr 16, 2020

This week saw the latest salvos in the battle for the future of money.

Libra announced that it would be moving away from a single currency that was backed by a basket of national currency to a model of numerous individual fiat-pegged currencies. While the original model was akin to a disruptive implementation of John Maynard Keynes original concept for a global basket currency (which he called a “bancor”), this model seems more to position Libra to help existing central banks digitize their currencies.

China meanwhile steamed forward with its digital currency and blockchain plans. Screenshots of an app from the Agricultural Bank of China show how the DCEP digital currency is currently being tested, giving us insight into functionality, geographies and players involved.

China also announced the 71 members of its National Blockchain Council, as well as went live with their Blockchain Service Network. The BSN in particular has potential significance on a world scale as China tries to build and control a key piece of global digital infrastructure.

What the Economy Will Look Like 6 Months From Now, Feat. Ryan Selkis Apr 15, 2020

As week (one million, it seems) of the COVID-19 lockdown plods on, many are wondering what the economy will look like on the other side.

Ryan Selkis is the CEO and founder of Messari. He was one of the earliest voices in crypto to sound the alarm on the potential impact of COVID-19 not only on the health system but on the economy.

In this episode of The Breakdown, Ryan joins @NLW to discuss:

Why the markets right now represent an economic and psychological relief rally
What it takes to reopen the economy
Why voluntary, privacy preserving contact tracing is part of the solution
Why crypto has performed largely as Ryan expected

The $20,000 Human IPO & 5 Other Stories That Have Nothing to Do With COVID-19 Apr 14, 2020

Even as the market tries to make sense of everything happen (or ignores it, depending on your perspective), crypto keeps on plugging along.

Today on The Breakdown @NLW looks at 5 recent crypto stories that are representative of larger trends, including:

Coinbase Custody enabling staking for Polkadot DOTs
A Telegram-focused exchange shutting down due to regulatory compliance costs
A $20k Human IPO on Ethereum
Shapeshift acquires Portis & other crypto M&A
A G20 report on the threat of Stablecoins

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | April 11 2020 Apr 11, 2020

The full week's episodes in one convenient file:

Monday | How Covid-19's Second Order Effects Could Make Humanity Stronger, feat. Emerson Spartz
Tuesday | Exit Plans, Premature Rallies and Frontline Heroes feat. Ben Hunt
Wednesday | The Questions We're Not Allowed to Ask, Feat. Hidden Forces' Demetri Kofinas
Thursday | Rebuilding the Resilience Economy, Feat. Anthony Pompliano
Friday | Quantitative Tightening and 5 Key Questions for Our Changing World

Quantitative Tightening and 5 Key Questions for Our Changing World Apr 10, 2020

As we wrap up another crazy week - 6.6m more jobless claims, $2.3T more in stimulus - this episode offers a few key themes and questions for bitcoiners and the crypto-minded to think about over the long Easter weekend:

Crypto-dollarization: why money is pouring into USD stablecoins and how it could create a future onramp to bitcoin
‘Quantitative Tightening’: why a new brand for the bitcoin halving could help us better capture a unique narrative moment
What it takes to get the economy back to work: beyong the political hemming and hawking, how can we force the real, nuanced conversation of turning the economy back on?
What it takes to rebuild as a Resilience Economy - and how can bottoms-up networks get started now?
Moments of transition are moments of leverage: what opportunities can each of us take advantage of?

Rebuilding the Resilience Economy feat. Anthony Pompliano Apr 09, 2020

As host of the Pomp Podcast, author of the daily Off The Chain newsletter, and founder partner at Morgan Creek Digital Assets, Anthony Pompliano is one of the best known media personalities and investors in the crypto industry.

In this episode, he and @NLW discuss:

The Fed’s just announced $2.3 trillion stimulus package - including the authorization to buy junk bonds
Why media and trust have desiccated to their lowest levels ever
The lack of a plan to restart the economy
Why Bitcoin was sold in last months larger market sell off
Why smart institutional investors are looking to bitcoin as a hedge when the deflationary environment turns inflationary
Why companies have to be allowed to fail to increase resilience
Why the best way to build a resilience economy is to put money in the hands of entrepreneurs and small businesses

The Questions We're Not Allowed to Ask, Feat. Hidden Forces' Demetri Kofinas Apr 08, 2020

Demetri Kofinas is the host of Hidden Forces, a popular podcast that examines markets through the lens of large patterns of change.

On this episode, Demetri and @NLW discuss:

How the politicization of the Coronavirus crisis has undermined smart action
How media incentivizes extreme opinions regardless of underlying expertise
What conversations are we not having around Coronavirus - in particular in terms of second order effects
Why we’ve barely begun to discuss the plan for turning the economy back on

Exit Plans, Premature Rallies and Frontline Heroes feat. Ben Hunt Apr 07, 2020

Epsilon Theory’s Ben Hunt joins for a follow up to our pre-lockdown Covid-19 conversation in early March. In the month since, the markets finally started to take Covid-19 seriously, elected officials stopped calling it just the flu, and big chunks of the world economy shut down.

Now, as markets rally on early evidence the curve may be flattening, the question is: is this premature?

In this episode, Ben & NLW discuss:

How the markets have moved from “denial” to “bargaining”
Why this rally has all the hallmarks of a type of bear market rally we’ve seen over the last month
Why the predictability of corporate bailouts doesn’t make them any less detestable
Why we should be buoyed by an explosion of ground-up, grassroots citizen action
How Frontline Heroes is creating a p2p PPE purchasing network that gets essential gear into the hands of health professionals without causing additional price pressure for state-led negotiations

How Covid-19's Second Order Effects Could Make Humanity Stronger, feat. Emerson Spartz Apr 06, 2020

Second order effects are things that happen as unexpected outcomes of something else happening. These effects can create surprising causal chains.

Take this for example: A pandemic makes everyone need to work from home leads to an increase in video calling leads to Walmart reporting that people are buying more shirts, but not pants.

Emerson Spartz is one of the world’s foremost thinkers on virality and the internet. He founded Mugglenet - the world’s biggest Harry Potter fan site - as a middle school drop out, and would later found and raise tens of millions for Dose.

In the past weeks, Emerson started an open crowdsourced document on the Coronavirus’ second order effects that has, itself, gone viral, especially among venture capitals and other investor circles trying to understand what the world looks like on the other side of this.

Emerson brings a surprisingly optimistic perspective on where this could lead a generation of people who are now more fully plugged in to the internet than ever before.

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | April 4 2020 Apr 04, 2020

The full week's episode, in one convenient file.

Monday | Bitcoin, Stablecoins, DeFi and Privacy: How COVID-19 is Changing Key Crypto Narratives
Tuesday | ‘If You’re Not Radicalized, You’re Not Paying Attention’ Feat. Nic Carter
Wednesday | How Coronavirus Is Accelerating the End of Globalism, Feat. Peter Zeihan
Thursday | 5 Reasons For Cautious Optimism In Crypto
Friday | Will DeFi Even Matter In A Post-Corona World? Feat. Matt Luongo

Will DeFi Even Matter In A Post-Corona World? Feat. Matt Luongo Apr 03, 2020

Matt Luongo got his start in bitcoin in 2013. In 2016, he watched a pivotal moment where the sound money, digital gold narrative subsumed the payments use case for bitcoin. While he agreed, ultimately, with the important of bitcoin as a new reserve asset, he still wanted to build and found his way to Ethereum.

Now his company is launching tBTC, a trust-minimized bridge between bitcoin and ethereum. Among other uses, it is a new solution to enabling bitcoin to be used as collateral in DeFi applications.

In this conversation, Matt and @NLW discuss these narrative shifts, as well as what the role and narrative for DeFi might be in a post-Covid crisis world.

5 Reasons For Cautious Optimism In Crypto Apr 02, 2020

The economic outlook is grim. The jobless claims keep piling up and even the most intransigent states are shutting down business. There isn’t - yet - a realistic plan - for returning to any sort of economic normalcy.

Yet in this bleak view, there are a handful of crypto indicators that suggest for cautious optimism. In this episode, @NLW discusses:

The crypto community’s volatility resilience
A significant uptick in Stablecoin issuance
Proof that bitcoiners have been buying the dip
Evidence that new audiences are finding their way to bitcoin (and perhaps with a sound money narrative in mind)
Binance’s acquisition of CMC and the power of M&A signals

How Coronavirus Is Accelerating the End of Globalism, Feat. Peter Zeihan Apr 01, 2020

“Some countries just aren’t going to emerge from the Coronavirus.”

Peter Zeihan is one of the world’s foremost geopolitical experts. In his new book “Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World,” Zeihan argues that we’re at the end of the largest expansionary period in human history. As America withdraws from global leadership, a totally new (and for most parts of the world, more painful) ‘normal’ will emerge.

On this episode of The Breakdown, Zeihan joins @NLW to discuss why the Coronavirus crisis is rapidly accelerating the end of the era of globalization.

How the American-led global order used the dollar as the tool to keep the world together
Why geopolitics and demography are coinciding to end the era of globalization
Why Covid-19 will spark a massive return of American manufacturing
Why, when it comes to the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency “Never before has the “exorbitant privilege” of being the world’s reserve currency felt more exorbitant or more like a privilege.
Why the crisis could spell the end for the Euro
Why China isn’t nearly as well positioned in the post globalization era as many assume
Why the best positioned countries in the coming era are the US, Japan, Argentina, France and Turkey

‘If You’re Not Radicalized, You’re Not Paying Attention’ Feat. Nic Carter Mar 31, 2020

In this wide-ranging discussion, Castle Island Ventures founding partner and Coin Metrics co-founder Nic Carter joins @NLW to discuss:

Why corporations weren’t adequately prepared for any serious economic trouble, much less a global pandemic
Why government backstopping the corporations leads to inappropriate risk-taking
How stock buybacks became a boogeyman of the current crisis
Why the crisis is actually four crises in one: health, economic, financial, and geopolitical
How Covid-19 could accelerate the US’ withdrawal from the world and China stepping into the void
Why the response to the handling of Covid-19 could lead some to authoritarianism
How stablecoins are allowing global market exposure to the world’s most in-demand currency: the USD
Why stablecoins and central bank digital currencies look the same but are functionally opposite
Why a ‘naive safe haven’ narrative was never correct for bitcoin
Why bitcoin was designed for exactly this type of moment.

Bitcoin, Stablecoins, DeFi and Privacy: How COVID-19 is Changing Key Crypto Narratives Mar 30, 2020

On January 28th, Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal tweeted “Notable overlap on here between the most alarmist people tweeting about the virus and those who are obsessed with the size of the Fed balance sheet.”

There is no doubt that the bitcoin and crypto community broadly were far earlier in recognizing the potential significance of the Covid-19 crisis than most professional communities. Today, America preps for at least another month of lockdown and social distancing. The markets continue their chaotic swing as investors are simply unable to price in such a once in a lifetime event.

A question for the crypto community becomes: how is this impacting narratives about our own industry?

In this episode, @NLW looks at the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on narratives around:

Bitcoin
Stablecoins
Digital Dollars and Central Bank Digital Currencies
DeFi
Privacy

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | March 28 2020 Mar 28, 2020

The full week's episode, in one convenient file.

Monday | Unlimited QE and Why Markets Can’t Price In COVID19
Tuesday | Cronyism, Zombie Companies and the True Cost of the Corona Crisis, Feat. Morgan Creek's Mark Yusko
Wednesday | How the U.S.' $2 Trillion Stimulus Will Expose the Monetary System’s Flaws
Thursday | How BlackRock Ended Up on Both Sides of the Bailout, Feat. Meltem Demirors
Friday | From Corporate Socialism to Dying for the Dow: 7 Themes That Defined the Week

Corporate Socialism to Dying for the Dow: 7 Themes That Defined the Week Mar 27, 2020

In this episode of The Breakdown, @NLW reflects on the themes that defined an absolutely wild week in global markets and society.

Those themes include:

Unlimited QE - broad new powers (corporate bond buying anyone?) and an unlimited checkbook for the Fed
Digital Dollars - a surprise inclusion of a digital dollar in an early Stimulus draft shifts the Overton window
Narrative Shift to “Grandma Dies For The Dow” - narrative analysis that suggests that the “just the flu” of two weeks has become “business closures will kill more than COVID”
Stimulus as Corporate Socialism - a huge bailout for businesses explained away by something that Taleb says is decidedly NOT a Black Swan
The Last Break of Institutional Trust - jobless claims were 4x higher than the previous record on the same day the stock market went bull again - trust in leadership is dead
Surveillance - a growing concern with surveillance - such as the new CDC program earmarked in the Stimulus package
Bitcoin difficulty adjustment - as Preston Pysh put it “this thing is so resilient it’s almost laughable”

How BlackRock Ended Up on Both Sides of the Bailout, Feat. Meltem Demirors Mar 26, 2020

The Senate passed $2T in Stimulus. That includes a one time $1,200 check to impacted individuals and….you guessed it, billions and billions for corporate relief. Included in that are hundreds of billions of dollars in corporate bond buying programs. The Federal Reserve has recruited asset management giant BlackRock to administer three of those programs.

Here’s the kicker. As Bloomberg describes it: “under the arrangement [BlackRock] could buy some of its own funds on behalf of the central bank.”

Outrage is running rampant, and to help listeners sort through it, @NLW is joined by Meltem Demirors, Chief Strategy Officer at CoinShares. In this conversation, they discuss:

The government mechanics behind the “money printer go brrr” meme
The unfathomable failure of US intelligence in seeing the pandemic coming
The deficit of leadership across the political spectrum
What Blackrock means and why “they’re not even pretending anymore”
Why Twitter memes on their own can’t change the world
Why bitcoin can and should be a gateway and tool for evangelizing more systemic change

How the U.S.' $2 Trillion Stimulus Will Expose the Monetary System’s Flaws Mar 25, 2020

CoinDesk’s Chief Content Officer Michael Casey and Head of Research Noelle Acheson join for a lively debate about the new $2 trillion stimulus package and era of “unlimited” QE, including:

Whether (and on what time scale) fiscal and monetary stimulus might lead to inflation
Whether the Fed buying corporate bonds amounts to a nationalization of the bond markets
Why the appearance of a ‘digital dollar’ in an earlier stimulus proposal was a huge surprise
How a digital dollar in the form proposed would upset the balance of power between the Fed, commercial banks, and citizens
Why trust in governments and financial institutions is likely to achieve new lows in the wake of COVID-19
Why people are reevaluating the meaning and purpose of money

Cronyism, Zombie Companies and the True Cost of the Corona Crisis, Feat. Morgan Creek's Mark Yusko Mar 24, 2020

Mark Yusko is the founder of Morgan Creek Capital Management. In this wide-ranging conversation, he and @NLW discuss:

Why bitcoin has fallen with stocks over the last few weeks
Why price and value are not the same thing
Why stocks have been manipulated
An argument for buy backs being illegal
Why cronyism is not capitalism
Why bailouts and other types of intervention help zombie companies that should perish
A debate about whether the “cure is worse than the disease”
The costs of a 0-risk tolerance
The polarization of health vs. economics
Why there should be a market holiday
Why bitcoin is the last and only free market
Why the big market announcements are always on Sunday
Why we’re headed to debt jubilee
There is a non-zero probability that Trump tries to cancel the election
Why a lack of leadership is the biggest cause for pessimism today

Unlimited QE and Why Markets Can’t Price In COVID19 Mar 23, 2020

Last October, Ikigai Asset Management’s Travis Kling predicted that Central Banks would have to “juice QE to infinity” in order to save markets from recession. Yesterday on 60 Minutes, Fed President Neel Kashkari said “there is an infinite amount of cash at the Federal Reserve. We will do whatever we need to do to make sure there is enough cash in the financial system.”

This was followed this morning by an announcement that the Fed was giving itself effectively unlimited capacity to intervene in markets. Markets were...still not impressed. In less than two hours, an initial gain had entirely retraced.

On this episode of The Breakdown, @NLW looks at:

Specifics details of the Fed Announcement
Why FinTwit and Bitcoin Twitter are focusing on inflation
Why some think that this action amounts to a nationalization of markets
How the ‘money printer go brrr’ meme is taking hold

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | March 21 2020 Mar 21, 2020

The week's episode, in one convenient file. Also including short clips from CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti and SwanBitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten.

Monday | Can $700B in Quantitative Easing Calm The Markets? Feat. CoinDesk’s Michael Casey and Noelle Acheson
Tuesday | Gov't Stimulus Goes BIG and Why Bitcoin Is the Only Truly Free Market, Feat. Dan Tapiero
Wednesday | Is the COVID19 Fiscal & Monetary Response An Overreaction? Feat. Bruce Fenton
Thursday | Off
Friday | State Power & Authoritarianism After Coronavirus featuring Peter McCormack

State Power & Authoritarianism After Coronavirus featuring Peter McCormack Mar 20, 2020

Peter McCormack is the host of What Bitcoin Did and the Defiance podcast. He recently returned from travel to a number of countries in South America including Venezuela and Colombia as well as the Turkey-Greece border.

In this off-the-cuff and wide ranging conversation, Peter and @NLW discuss

Bitcoiner politics and the bitcoin community’s reaction to the potential for increased state power in the wake of Coronavirus
Which types of state power growth we should be most concerned with
How to push governments to retract power growth on the other side of crisis
How travel around the world has informed Peter’s perspective on bitcoin and politics
Why nuance is both disincentivized and sorely needed in times of crisis

Is the COVID19 Fiscal & Monetary Response An Overreaction? Feat. Bruce Fenton Mar 18, 2020

In his daily Coronavirus press briefing today, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said “our main scramble now is ventilators.” The state anticipates that within 45 days, it could need 37,000 ventilators. It currently has 3000.

Bruce Fenton was one of the early crypto community canaries in the coal mine warning of the impending threat of Coronavirus. As the world has caught up to the warning, he has shifted his attention to helping coordinate an open source network that is trying to address that exact problem.

On this episode of The Breakdown, Bruce joins to discuss:

Where the US is in its awareness cycle
Why bitcoiners are worried about the long-term economic ramifications of massive stimulus
What a voluntarist alternative to government intervention might look like
How an open source network is trying to solve the ventilator shortage
What regular people can do to contribute to the fight against Coronavirus

Gov't Stimulus Goes BIG and Why Bitcoin Is the Only Truly Free Market, Feat. Dan Tapiero Mar 17, 2020

President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin announced a significant slate of upcoming stimulus measures, including deferred taxes and direct payments to Americans (although those details remain to be seen).

On this episode of The Breakdown, 10T holdings CEO Dan Tapiero joins to discuss:

How this forthcoming stimulus might impact the bitcoin narrative
Why some traditional safe havens like bonds might not fair well in the coming markets while others like gold are poised to thrive
Why markets could be positioning for a major bounce back
Why the Fed has more tools in its toolkit than popular media and opinion are suggesting
Why the dollar’s global strength is a major concern
Why bitcoin is the only truly free market in the world

Can $700B in Quantitative Easing Calm The Markets? Feat. CoinDesk’s Michael Casey and Noelle Acheson Mar 16, 2020

Over the weekend, the Fed decided it couldn’t wait for Wednesday’s planned meeting to act, cutting interest rates to nearly 0%. It also announced $700 billion of direct capital injection through the purchase of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed debt.

The question is whether this action can actually calm markets? So far, it’s not looking great. Within minutes, emergency circuit breakers were triggered again. Markets are down more than 9% on the day.

In this episode, @NLW chats with CoinDesk’s Chief Content Officer Michael Casey and director of research Noelle Acheson about:

Why the market isn’t impressed with Fed action
Why no Fed response will be enough on its own to solve the health crisis and the resulting economic dislocation
Why we’re going to see more conversations in the coming weeks about UBI, MMT and other direct citizen stimulus

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | March 14 2020 Mar 14, 2020

The entire week's shows in one convenient file:

Monday | What the Market Crash Means for Bitcoin, Feat. Delphi's Kevin Kelly
Tuesday | Crypto Fundraising and the Nothing-Is-Safe Haven
Wednesday | Ben Hunt on the Clash of Narratives in the Age of Coronavirus
Thursday | 6 Good Reasons for Bitcoiners to Keep Calm and HODL On
Friday | What Happens When Currencies Fail? Featuring Preston Pysh

What Happens When Currencies Fail? Featuring Preston Pysh Mar 13, 2020

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced more than a trillion dollars in liquidity injections into the market. In the coming weeks, many observers expect trillions of more in stimulus in a variety of exotic new intervention tactics.

While this will (hopefully) stem the still emerging economic fallout from the pandemic, it creates its own new set of problems. In this episode of The Breakdown, @NLW is joined by “We Study Billionaires” host Preston Pysh to discuss:

How bond markets will react to the wave of stimulus
The challenge of global coordination for a new Bretton Woods
Why in the wake of stimulus some governments might turn to bitcoin
The three factors that lead to currency failure

6 Good Reasons for Bitcoiners to Keep Calm and HODL On Mar 12, 2020

The Coronavirus got really extra real today for markets. A two and a half week selloff was tipped to the next level by a major ratcheting up of action from the US government (which still seemed clearly to be not enough to calm markets).

In bitcoin, this meant a drop from around $8000 yesterday to under $6000 today - a head-spinning dump, especially for those who are more recent to crypto.

Still, in this episode, @NLW argues that there are 7 good reasons to keep calm and HODL on:

It’s not just bitcoin
Correlation means infiltration
Peak fear
Asia on the upswing
Buy order behavior
Bitcoin’s been dead before
And a bonus: this environment is exactly what bitcoin was built for

Ben Hunt on the Clash of Narratives in the Age of Coronavirus Mar 11, 2020

The week of February 12, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was reaching new all time highs. Meanwhile, China’s quarantine of the 11 million people in Wuhan was three weeks old and expanding to other parts of the country.

While the global equities markets have finally started to catch up to the fear of a global pandemic, the Coronavirus has been one a profound case study in the power of narratives to shape behavior. Even now, those seeking to contain the spread in the US are fighting against narratives from leadership that range from “it’s just the flu” to “it’s a hoax from the media.”

On today’s episode of The Breakdown, NLW speaks with Epsilon Theory co-founder and market theorist Ben Hunt, who makes it his business to understand how narratives are shape and shaped by the world around us.

Since the beginning of the Coronavirus outbreak, Ben has been a clarion voice in the chaos. This episode is no exception.

Crypto Fundraising and the Nothing-Is-Safe Haven Mar 10, 2020

Whatever you thought of the uncorrelated or safe haven narratives a few weeks ago, it’s hard to deny that bitcoin and crypto are moving in lock step with equities - even mirroring a small bounce in the morning that retreated in the early afternoon.

On this episode of The Breakdown, NLW looks at hot takes on the narrative from Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal and crypto investor Ari David Paul.

Not all the news is bleak, however. Also on this episode, we break down recent financings for

Argent’s de-fi friendly wallet
Horizon Games’ blockchain-based Hearthstone/MtG style game SkyWeaver
Futureswap’s decentralized futures exchange and more

What the Market Crash Means for Bitcoin, Feat. Delphi's Kevin Kelly Mar 09, 2020

Bitcoin’s price has cratered, but it’s nothing compared to the broader market havoc. From the Coronavirus scare to an oil price war, a confluence of factors is aligning to make it a very rough Monday.

On this episode of The Breakdown, @nlw is joined by Delphi Digital’s Kevin Kelly to discuss:

Why the stock market is just catching up to what the bond markets have been saying
Why the bond markets have been a better reflection of potential economic pain
Why we need to pay attention to what happens in the credit markets
The role of the oil price war in today’s market drop
What the declining bitcoin price means for the safe haven and uncorrelated asset narratives
Which assets are actually acting like safe havens

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | March 7 2020 Mar 07, 2020

The full week's episodes in one convenient package

The View From China: Crypto, Crisis and Digital Currencies Feat. Matthew Graham
What Us Election Outcome Is Best for Bitcoin?
Libra Plus? A New Global Digital Currency Strategy For Facebook
Why Bitcoin Mining Might Be the New Business Model for US Power Plants
Riccardo 'Fluffypony' Spagni on How Coronavirus Could Impact Privacy

Riccardo 'Fluffypony' Spagni on How Coronavirus Could Impact Privacy Mar 07, 2020

As the Coronavirus took hold in China, officials in the Hubei province tracked potential patients by examining purchase records for cough and flu medicine for the previous month.

Welcome to the new frontiers of privacy. In this wide-ranging episode, @NLW chats with former lead maintainer of Monero and Tari co-founder Riccardo Spagni - aka @FluffyPony on Twitter - about privacy in the context of:

The recent arrest of DropBit CEO Larry Harmon surrounding bitcoin mixer technology being used for illicit purposes
The US govt’s battle against end-to-end encryption
Central bank digital currencies
At home devices like Alexa and Google home
Clearview AI and facial recognition
China’s response to Coronavirus
Why individual apathy is the greatest threat to privacy in the world

Why Bitcoin Mining Might Be the New Business Model for US Power Plants Mar 06, 2020

It was another good day for global crypto, as South Korea votes to formally integrate the industry into the existing financial system, opening the market to new players and potentially improving services for crypto companies.

In New York state, meanwhile, a recently renovated power plant is taking advantage of low cost energy with 7000 bitcoin miners. This is part of a larger trend of US-based mining in 2020.

In a very different part of the industry, a new partnership between ConsenSys, EY and Microsoft suggests the intranet era of enterprise blockchain might be coming to a close.

Finally, the new governor of the Bank of England says be prepared to lose money if you buy bitcoin.

Libra Plus? A New Global Digital Currency Strategy For Facebook Mar 05, 2020

Yesterday, The Information reported that Facebook’s Calibra wallet would be abandoning the backed-by-a-basket-of-currencies Libra for a set of fiat-backed digital currencies for different regions. The company quickly amended that while they would be launching those fiat-based digital currencies, they weren’t abandoning Libra. In this episode, @NLW argues that these fiat digital currencies could be more readily adopted initially than Libra among Facebook’s existing user base.

Also on this episode, huge news out of India, as the Supreme Court reverses a decision by the Reserve Bank of India from 2018 to ban crypto banking. The move could breath life into an industry which has largely shuttered in India since the initial ban.

Finally, a news roundup including a lawsuit against Twitter around deplatforming and a new router from HTC that can also run a bitcoin full node.

What Us Election Outcome Is Best for Bitcoin? Mar 04, 2020

Today is Super Tuesday - the biggest day of the US primary election season. Increasingly, prediction markets and pollsters suggest it’s a two person race between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders (although Mike Bloomberg has insisted he’s staying in).

In this episode, NLW breaks down each candidate in the context of their positions vis a vis cryptocurrency, as well as looking at the possible role of three other fallen contenders in the rest of the campaign.

As Bernie leads the Twitter poll, the question arises: do people think Bernie will be good for bitcoin because he shares the same values of prioritizing the little guy over big banks, or because they think his programs will demand so much QE it will send bitcoin to the moon?

Listen and find out.

The View From China: Crypto, Crisis and Digital Currencies Feat. Matthew Graham Mar 03, 2020

When everyone wrote their 2020 crypto prediction pieces, China featured prominently in everything from the exchange business to enterprise blockchain to the potential impact of a forthcoming digital yuan.

Coronavirus erased those issues from focus. On this episode of The Breakdown, @NLW is joined by Matthew Graham, CEO of Sino Global Capital. For the past 7 years, Matthew has lived in China and for the past several years, his exclusive focus has been on crypto and blockchain.

In this episode, they discuss:

What Chinese crypto and blockchain investors were focused on before Coronavirus
The shift in the crypto and blockchain narrative in China post-Libra
What living through the Coronavirus has actually been live (and how it differs from the media narrative in the US)
Why enterprise blockchain is poised to be one of the most dominant focuses for China-centric investors this year

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | Feb 29 2020 Feb 29, 2020

The full week's episode run in one long-run, long-chill, long-sleep episode:

Monday | Caitlin Long on Coronavirus, Crypto Custody and Building a Bank
Tuesday | 6 Explanations for Crypto’s Coronavirus Focus
Wednesday | Is Bitcoin A Safe Haven or ‘Schmuck Insurance’?
Thursday | A 101 Guide To Ethereum’s ProgPoW Controversy
Friday | Understanding This Week’s Market Whiplash, Featuring Scott Melker

Understanding This Week’s Market Whiplash, Featuring Scott Melker Feb 28, 2020

After weeks of not reacting to Coronavirus, the markets took a profound turn for the worse this week, leading ultimately to the fastest correction - i.e. loss of 10% - in recorded history.

In this episode of The Breakdown, @NLW is joined by crypto trader, DJ, and broad market thinker Scott Melker to discuss:

What the crypto markets demonstrated this week
What recent price action suggests about the bitcoin as a safe haven narrative
Why it’s insane that just two weeks ago, despite tens (or hundreds) of millions of people being quarantined in the supply chain capital of the world, stock markets were printing all time highs
How we went from those ATHs to the fastest correction (10% drop) in recorded history
What the correction suggests for the fundamentals of our economy
Why central bankers have fewer options than ever to fight economic turmoil

A 101 Guide To Ethereum’s ProgPoW Controversy Feb 27, 2020

Last Friday on Ethereum’s core developer call, the devs agreed to push forward a controversial anti-ASICs consensus algorithm switch known as ProgPoW.

The broader Ethereum community was not pleased, and has spent the last week debating both ProgPoW itself as well as the way decisions in the community get made.

In this 101-guide to the controversy, @nlw breaks down:

What is ProgPoW
The history of the debate
Arguments for and against
Who falls on what side and why
The implications of ProgPoW for DeFi

Is Bitcoin A Safe Haven or ‘Schmuck Insurance’? Feb 26, 2020

Bitcoin is having a terrible, horrible, no good very bad day. Many are using the dump - which from a timing perspective aligns with a broader market selloff among Coronavirus fears - as a way to diminish the “bitcoin as a safe haven” narrative.

In this episode, @nlw revisits that narrative and argues that it is uncomfortably bunched up with the uncorrelated asset narrative, or, as Chamath Palihapitiya calls it “schmuck insurance.”

This episode also covers:

Central bank digital currency (CBDC) news: Canada says it doesn’t see the need right now but that could change if private cryptos get more traction, while China’s work on a digital yuan is paused due to Coronavirus shutdowns.
The six year anniversary of Mt. Gox’s lost 750,000 BTC coming to light.

6 Explanations for Crypto’s Coronavirus Focus Feb 25, 2020

The spread of Coronavirus has dominated the news cycle across industries, but the discussion has been particularly fierce in both the finance and tech worlds, with crypto right in the lead.

For a month or more, prominent crypto voices have been discussing the event in terms of skepticism of reported government cases, questions of market impact, and plans for personal preparation.

I surveyed more than 1500 people on Crypto Twitter to ask why crypto was so interested in the Coronavirus.

These were their top answers.

This episode of The Breakdown also features an excerpt from Hidden Forces Ep 123: Market Nihilism: Price Discovery in a World Where Nothing Matters | Ben Hunt & Grant Williams

Caitlin Long on Coronavirus, Crypto Custody and Building a Bank Feb 24, 2020

An incredible amount of work has gone into convincing institutional investors that bitcoin and crypto should be on their radar. Now that many are convinced, however, they face some significant limitations in the infrastructure.

A new crypto bank out of Wyoming is designed to address those problems. Founded by Caitlin Long, Avanti is apply for a special purpose depository institution (SPDI) charter and already has 8 products in its pipeline not currently available to US investors.

In this interview, Caitlin and @nlw discuss:

Why Avanti is needed
Why Avanti will have 100% of assets in reserve at all times
Why the right model for crypto custody is more akin to valeting a car than current financial market models
Why building a crypto bank is important in the context of macro market turmoil
How Coronavirus is exposing pre-existing problems in the global economy

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | Feb 22 2020 Feb 22, 2020

The full week's episode run in one long-run, long-chill, long-sleep episode:

Monday | Off
Tuesday | Is It Exploitation Season for DeFi?
Wednesday | Chainlink's Sergey Nazarov on What DeFi Can Learn From Early Exchange Hacks
Thursday | Why We Should Stop Thinking of ‘Crypto’ as a Single Industry
Friday | Diagnosing the Dip: Why Today's Leading Exchanges Are Powerful, but Not Inevitable

Diagnosing the Dip: Why Today's Leading Exchanges Are Powerful, but Not Inevitable Feb 21, 2020

After settling in to the $10,000 price level, BTC suddenly and rapidly dipped more than 5% in an hour on Wednesday. As the market discusses possible explanations, some floated the unexpected simultaneous downtime of Binance and Coinbase as a causal factor.

In this episode of The Breakdown, we discuss the power exchanges wield - both in terms of market liquidity as well as the ability to shape news cycles. The good news is that new funding for insurgent exchanges suggest that power today is not inevitable.

Lastly, we discuss the latest in central bank digital currencies, with Sweden launching an e-krona pilot; a former head of China’s national bank saying Coronavirus could accelerate efforts; and a new member of the Libra Association.

Why We Should Stop Thinking of ‘Crypto’ as a Single Industry Feb 20, 2020

The ‘crypto’ industry is having a hard time fitting everything that’s happening inside that one monolithic term. On this episode, @nlw looks at current news stories from across at least 5 different categories - DeFi, enterprise blockchain, central bank digital currencies, digital collectibles and bitcoin - to ask whether they really all belong lumped in in the same category.

The episode also looks at:

Four reasons these increasingly different categories remain bunched together
Why turning other parts of the industry into an enemy is rewarded in the public sphere
Why letting individual parts of the industry evolve individually is likely to bring more, not fewer resources into the space.

Chainlink's Sergey Nazarov on What DeFi Can Learn From Early Exchange Hacks Feb 19, 2020

The DeFi world continues to dissect the recent attacks on bZx. To most, the amount lost in the attacks is far less relevant than what the attacks suggest about how DeFi applications need to be designed.

Within that, one key topic of conversation is the role of price oracles - the systems by which DeFi applications check the prices of assets that dictate what happens in a given smart contract. Since asset price manipulation was at the core of the recent attacks, this is a particularly pertinent area of inquiry.

Yesterday, Chainlink announced that it would be helping bZx upgrade their systems taking advantage of Chainlink’s recently-launched “meta oracle.” On this episode of The Breakdown, Chainlink founder Sergey Nazarov discusses:

The role of price oracles in DeFi
How price oracles were targeted in the recent attacks
What the DeFi industry can learn from early crypto exchange hacks

Is It Exploitation Season for DeFi? Feb 18, 2020

Part of what makes DeFi interesting to people is how it takes advantage of open source protocols to enable types of transactions never before available. The problem, however, is that financial structures mean new financial vulnerabilities.

In the last few days, two attacks on bZx have used a similar strategy of manipulating the price of synthetic assets in the context of a new instrument called “flashloans.” On this episode of @nlw breaks down exactly

How the attacks were carried out
How the community is responding
What the larger ramifications for DeFi might be

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | Feb 15 2020 Feb 15, 2020

The full week's shows as one long episode, featuring guests including Travis Kling (Ikigai), Muneeb Ali (Blockstack), Coinlist (Andy Bromberg)

Monday | On the Frontlines of the SEC Safe Harbor Proposal With CoinList President Andy Bromberg
Tuesday | Muneeb Ali Explains Blockstack’s Big Bet on Bitcoin
Wednesday | Why Crypto Sentiment and Prices Are Soaring: Puppets, Pundits, Partnerships
Thursday | The US Government Sends Mixed Signals on Digital Currency Privacy
Friday | The Top Narratives Driving Crypto Market Growth feat. Travis Kling

The Top Narratives Driving Crypto Market Growth feat. Travis Kling Feb 14, 2020

There’s no denying that 2020 is off to a roaring start. From prices to volume to social media, sentiment is up up up.

But what’s driving it? On this special Valentine’s Day episode, @nlw reacts to listeners votes about which narratives are most driving the shift in energy, discussing:

The BTC halving
Coronavirus and volatility
Fed action
Central bank digital currency intrigue
Ethereum and DeFi
Price reflexivity and Lindy effects

The episode finishes up with some hot takes on what is driving the markets and what we should be most concerned about and most excited for with Ikigai Asset Management’s Travis Kling.

The US Government Sends Mixed Signals on Digital Currency Privacy Feb 13, 2020

To look at the US Government, it is the best of times and the worst of times for personal financial privacy.

On the one hand, in comments before the Senate Financial Services Committee, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says that FINCEN is planning more strict regulations around anti-money laundering and crypto.

At the same time, the CEO of DropBit was arrested on money laundering charges around a bitcoin mixing service he ran between 2014 and 2017.

In this new enforcement regime, one of the government’s major partners is Chainalysis, who have seen more than $10m in Federal agency contracts since 2015.

Yet privacy advocates are also surprisingly enthused by comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell, who suggested in testimony to Congress that any potential US digital dollar would need to be privacy preserving.

Why Crypto Sentiment and Prices Are Soaring: Puppets, Pundits, Partnerships Feb 13, 2020

After Monday’s quick retrace, bitcoin and the rest of the market went green again. In this episode, @nlw breaks down the shifting sentiment, looking at:

How a partnership between Hedara Hashgraph and Google Cloud pumped HBAR more than 50% - featuring commentary from Hedara CEO Mance Harmon
Why Figure is launching a TV campaign to educate people about blockchain
CNBC Fast Money actively (and convincingly) promoting the narrative of bitcoin as a safe haven asset.

Muneeb Ali Explains Blockstack’s Big Bet on Bitcoin Feb 11, 2020

Last week, Blockstack announced a new proposal through which node operators would be rewarded in bitcoin. The concept behind Proof of Transfer is that, for the cryptoasset ecosystem to run, electricity should only have to be converted into digital scarcity once.

In this interview with @nlw, Blockstack CEO Muneeb Ali explains how, by tying the security of Blockstack’s Stacks blockchain to bitcoin, and allowing miners to be rewarded with BTC, Blockstack might be setting a new precedent for how the crypto ecosystem looks to bitcoin as a base layer.

On the Frontlines of the SEC Safe Harbor Proposal With CoinList President Andy Bromberg Feb 10, 2020

Last week, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce proposed Rule 195 to give token projects a 3 year safe harbor. This proposed period would allow them to distribute tokens without fear of violating securities law so long as they achieve certain standards of decentralization in that time.

Coinlist is a platform for compliant token sales. On this episode of The Breakdown, Coinlist CoFounder & President Andy Bromberg and @nlw discuss:

The cost of regulatory clarity in the US, including projects leaving US shores
Historic approaches to “compliant” token sales and what problems they still leave
What Commissioner Hester Peirce’s proposed Rule 195 includes
The potential implications for the US crypto markets
The chances that Rule 195 comes to pass

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | Feb 6 2020 Feb 08, 2020

The week's full episode run in one long-run, long-drive ready podcast.

Monday | Deplatforming, Ethereum Marketing and Whether Brexit Matters for Crypto feat. Ledger CEO Pascal Gauthier

Tuesday | Are Uncensorable Web Domains Blockchain's Next Killer App? Feat Namebase CEO Tieshun Roquerre

Wednesday | What All This VC and M&A Activity Tells Us About The State Of The Crypto Markets

Thursday | The Federal Reserve Has Its 'Come to Satoshi' Moment

Friday | Kraken's Dan Held on What's Different About Bitcoin At $10k This Time

Kraken’s Dan Held on What’s Different About Bitcoin At $10k This Time Feb 07, 2020

Bitcoin is on a 7 week upward trend. Having already smashed through its $9,000 Vegeta memes, it is now inching closer towards $10k.

On this episode, @nlw is joined by Kraken’s Dan Held to discuss how bitcoin has changed in a number of ways since the last time we were at the $10,000 price level last year. They look at:

Narrative - Speculation around bitcoin as a safe haven and the role of the halvening continue to shape the conversation
Infrastructure - The tools for how people can interact with bitcoin - from lending to derivatives - have never been broader
Audience - Institutions are no longer just around the corner but actively participating in the market

The Federal Reserve Has Its ‘Come to Satoshi’ Moment Feb 06, 2020

That’s the way Meltem Demirors described Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard’s remarks at Stanford yesterday. For the first time, the Fed has said it is actively researching and experimenting with digital currencies and distributed ledger technologies. This is a change in tone from a Fed that, when asked previously, has more or less dismissed digital currencies.

On this episode, @nlw looks at Brainard’s speech, along with: the latest from Japanese lawmakers proposing a digital currency to counteract the influence of a forthcoming Chinese digital yuan; a Bank for International Settlements digital currency working group with six major central banks; and the potential implications of CBDCs on bitcoin.

What All This VC and M&A Activity Tells Us About The State Of The Crypto Markets Feb 05, 2020

If venture investments and acquisitions provide a window into the sentiment in markets, boy did we get a big dose of information today.

Today we look at investments in the world’s best known developer of the Lightning Network; a new prominent corporate investor for a tokenized securities platform; and Square’s investment in a real-time payments company.

We also look at a set of acquisitions, including a ConsenSys acquisition poised to get them in the $3.8T municipal bond space; a Bakkt acquisition poised to get them ready for a consumer app that includes more than just cryptocurrencies; and an attempt by Bakkt-parent ICE to buy eBay for north of $30b.

Are Uncensorable Web Domains Blockchain’s Next Killer App? With Namebase CEO Tieshun Roquerre Feb 04, 2020

As claims of election tampering, fraud, and other dubious activities fly around the botched Democratic Caucus in Iowa, trust in our public institutions continues to crater.

The question of trust and censorship are at the heart of our episode today. Handshake is a new protocol for uncensorable web domains. The goal is to create a new blockchain-based Top Level Domain system that governments can’t censor or block.

To explain why Handshake (HNS) matters, @nlw is joined by Tieshun Roquerre, the CEO of Namebase, a next-generation domain registrar for HNS.

In this interview, they discuss:

What Handshake is
How a HNS domain is different from a standard web domain
Why uncensorable web domains are the next great blockchain killer app
How Roquerre became interested in the space
How Namebase works

Deplatforming, Ethereum Marketing and Whether Brexit Matters for Crypto Feb 03, 2020

Much of the Crypto Twitter conversation this weekend was dominated by talk of Twitter’s suspension of ZeroHedge. @nlw explores why the specifics of the infraction or the quality of the publication aren’t the important part of the conversation, and why he thinks we’ll see arguments for social media platforms to be turned into public utilities in the years ahead.

Also on this episode:

Debates around Ethereum marketing. Does the community need to spend more resources telling the story and recruiting new users or should the tech speak for itself?
What Brexit means for the crypto community - practically and metaphorically.

The last section features comments from Ledger CEO Pascal Gauthier.

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | Feb 1 2020 Feb 01, 2020

The full week's episodes in one (plus a bonus TL;DR on ZeroHedge's deplatforming.

Tuesday | Narrative Watch: The Future of Fud
Wednesday | Exclusive Interview with Binance US CEO Catherine Coley announcing staking
Thursday | The Unsolved Mystery of How To Fund Public Protocols
Friday | The Founders of Chainlink and Synthetix on DeFi, Derivatives and 25 New Decentralized Price Feeds

The Founders of Chainlink and Synthetix on DeFi, Derivatives and 25 New Decentralized Price Feeds Jan 31, 2020

Yesterday Chainlink released price reference data for 25 of its decentralized oracle networks which, together, power more than $100m in DeFi.

On this special interview episode, @nlw talks with Sergey Nazarov and Kain Warwick, the founders of Chainlink and Synthetix respectively about:

The evolution and goals of Synthetix, a novel type of derivatives exchange where users can interact with any asset with a price feed.
The challenge Synthetix faced around spinning up their own oracles around price feeds
The history of their collaboration and how Synthetix came to work with Chainlink
Chainlink approach to building decentralized oracles for data such as price feeds
Chainlink’s announcement yesterday about the new published price reference data for 25 oracle networks
The state of the idea of decentralization, and how what was previously a concept is becoming operationalized
One thing that gives them pause or scares them about DeFi and crypto and one thing that makes them excited for the future

The Unsolved Mystery of How to Fund Public Protocols Jan 30, 2020

The best way to fund open source projects remains a question, and one that - in the context of crypto protocols - has never had higher stakes. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen live action experiments in a number of different approaches.

Gitcoin grants used a quadratic funding program to match grants to technology builders and media creators in Ethereum

After months and months of concerted community debate and conversation, Zcash will implement a new Dev Fund of 20% of the block rewards after the Founders Reward runs out in November, splitting it between the Electric Coin Co (7%), Zcash Foundation (5%) and 3rd party developers (8%)

A consortium (cartel?) of the 4 largest BCH mining pools tried to insist upon a 12.5% block reward diversion to a new dev fund, with a threat to orphan blocks that didn’t comply. The plan ran into a barrier when Roger Ver’s bitcoin.com backed away.

Also in this episode, @nlw looks at the latest in CBDCs - including Japan’s continued hedging that they’re preparing for the possibility of needing to move quickly and Cambodia’s announcement that they will be implementing a CBDC this quarter.

Finally, Andrew Yang took a few minutes yesterday to talk about cryptocurrencies and why regulation with the intent to stop them would be doomed to fail.

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW: Binance US CEO Catherine Coley Announces Staking Jan 29, 2020

In a Breakdown exclusive, Binance US CEO announces that the exchange will begin supporting staking, starting with ALGO and ATOMs.

On this episode, Catherine and I discuss:

How the company prioritizes both new features and which audiences to build for
Why staking is important both for allowing people to do more with their crypto assets as well as help build and secure the networks those assets run on
How staking is part of a much larger mission around education, financial literacy and lowering the barriers to entry for participation in crypto.

Narrative Watch: The Future of Crypto FUD Jan 28, 2020

We’re over $9,000! That means a lot of good things, of course. But any price increase brings with it increased scrutiny and, yes, increased FUD. The question for this time around is whether the FUD is the same old same old or something new.

In this episode, @nlw looks at three emergent (and continued) areas of FUD, including: 1) accusations that the bitcoin community is rooting for calamity as the safe haven narrative takes hold; 2) an updated “crypto is for criminals” narrative with more emphasis on state-level enemies; 3) a new, more economically vindictive green/energy waste narrative.

Importantly, the question isn’t so much whether these new categories of FUD will come to fruition, but what can be done about them.

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | Jan 25 2020 Jan 24, 2020

A single long-form episode with all the week's content + a TL;DR. This week was all about macro frame-setting coming out of Davos.

Monday - 4 Reasons Crypto Should Care About Davos
Tuesday - Gitcoin's Kevin Owocki on Controversy and the Future of Open Source Funding
Wednesday - Why Vodafone’s Defection Won't Matter For Libra
Thursday - Will Mass Adoption Be More PayPal or Pornhub?
Friday - Davos Takeaways, CBDCs & the Rise of Bitcoin Art featuring Brekkie von Bitcoin

Davos Takeaways, CBDCs & the Rise of Bitcoin Art featuring Brekkie von Bitcoin Jan 24, 2020

That’s a wrap! The World Economic Forum is over, and the key ideas coming out of Davos for our industry are: 1) a continued ‘blockchain, not crypto’ narrative; 2) a believe in the inevitability of cashless futures (without much concern about the negative implications); and 3) the rise of CBDCs.

On the CBDC front, the WEF put out a toolkit for governments that are considering their own currency; Japan announced a project to explore a digital currency as a counterweight to the influence a digital yuan might bring China; and a BIS study says 1 in 10 governments anticipate having a digital currency within 3 years.

Finally, we close asking prolific bitcoiner and artist Brekkie von Bitcoin about the state of bitcoin art and why even the hardcore financially-minded folks in the space should care.

Will Mass Adoption Be More PayPal or Pornhub? Jan 23, 2020

There is an ongoing debate in the crypto community about where mainstream adoption. One point of view is that it will be the slow steady acceptance of digital assets. On that front, Bakkt president Adam White said in Davos yesterday that the company is on track to launch their app this year.

Another perspective is that the main use case of crypto is to enable otherwise censored transactions. Lending credence to this perspective is the case of Pornhub, which saw payouts to its more than 100,000 performers blocked unexpectedly by PayPal in November, and which announced cash outs via Tether (USDT) today.

In this episode, @nlw breaks down these two arguments and asks whether they’re mutually exclusive.

Also discussed is the new BCH mining group (cartel?) insisting on a 12.5% block reward dev fund, as well as interesting insights and data from research from CoinDesk and The Block today.

Why Vodafone’s Defection Won't Matter For Libra Jan 22, 2020

News broke yesterday that the Libra Association had seen it’s 8th high profile defection, this time from the telecom giant Vodafone. In today’s episode of the breakdown, @nlw argues that Association members are far less of a factor in Libra’s success than key regulatory questions around domiciling, the value peg, and the US’s fear of a Chinese digital currency.

Also in this episode, Square Crypto announces its plans for a Lightning Development Kit while Square also announced a new patent that could make crypto easier to use. In regulatory battles, meanwhile, both the Blockchain Association and the Chamber of Digital Commerce have filed amicus briefs around the SEC-Telegram lawsuit.

Gitcoin's Kevin Owocki on Controversy and the Future of Open Source Funding Jan 21, 2020

Ever since announcing their fourth round of grants, Gitcoin has been a major subject of conversation across the Twittersphere. In addition to all the excited buzz from both technical projects and media creators vying for grants matched based on E. Glen Weyl and Vitalik Buterin’s quadratic funding model, there has been controversy. Some of that controversy has been from outside the Ethereum community, pointing to Consensys and Ethereum Foundation support as an example of centralization. Some of the controversy has come from within, as debates rage about what is or isn’t an acceptable use of “public” resources.

No matter what one’s position, it’s hard to deny that Gitcoin is one of the most interesting experiments in open source funding to date. Listen as @nlw askes the projects founder Kevin Owocki about the history of the project, the controversy, and what makes this round of grants such a big jump forward.

4 Reasons Crypto Should Care About Davos Jan 20, 2020

The World Economic Forum kicks off today. CoinDesk and The Block both have representatives there. Numerous panels relate to topics around the industry. At the same time, the centralized power structure is something of an anathema to the world crypto is trying to build. The question is: should crypto even care?

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | Jan 18 2020 Jan 18, 2020

A single long-form episode with all daily episodes of The Breakdown along with a TL;DR on the week:

Monday - Tokenized NBA Contracts & The Hunt For Crypto’s Killer App
Tuesday - Mati Greenspan on the Technical and Macro Roots of Bitcoin’s Price Surge
Wednesday - Why DeFi Is Surging As The Market Pumps
Thursday - Why ‘Crypto Dad’ Is Building the Digital Dollar Foundation
Friday - Tyrone Ross On The Next Million Crypto Investors

Tyrone Ross On The Next Million Crypto Investors Jan 17, 2020

One man. Three piping hot takes. In this special interview episode of The Breakdown, financial advisor and crypto advocate Tyrone Ross shares his thoughts on:

Why Financial Advisors are the key to bringing in the next wave of crypto investors
Why DeFi is an even bigger deal than you think - and not just to the hackers and entrepreneurs building on it
Why Square’s CashApp - not Binance, not Coinbase, not any one else - is the most important company in Crypto

Why ‘Crypto Dad’ Is Building the Digital Dollar Foundation Jan 16, 2020

As Libra continues to spur discussions among regulators around the world, and China’s digital yuan comes ever closer to fruition, the U.S. Federal Reserve seems disinclined to look seriously at a digital dollar. Ex-CFTC Chair Chris Giancarlo - aka “Crypto Dad” - isn’t waiting around. He has teamed with Accenture to launch the nonprofit Digital Dollar Foundation.

As crypto continues to evolve, it does so in sometimes divergent directions. Gemini announced a new insurance company designed to make big institutions more comfortable with the space. Zcash, meanwhile, released an updated SDK to make it easier to shield transactions via mobile. Can the privacy-preserving side of crypto co-exist, ultimately, with the sanguine institutional side?

Finally, we revisit our discussion of personal tokens and ISAs, as well as look at the latest research from Coinmetrics on whether bitcoin is behaving like a safe haven asset.

Why DeFi Is Surging As The Market Pumps Jan 15, 2020

Crypto tokens weren’t the only thing that saw a major pump yesterday. The total value locked in DeFi ascended to new heights. While part of this can be explained simply by the rise in ETH price, it also reflected traders turning to DeFi platforms as a way to get more exposure to the market action without selling their core assets.

For all the exciting price action, not everything is pointing in a positive direction. These market moves don’t seem to reflect new market participants, for example, and anecdotally, times remain tough for projects trying to fundraise.

In our final segment, we look at a blockchain conference in North Korea that the UN suggests simply attending may violate international sanctions, an Iran-focused hedge fund that uses cryptocurrency to work around international restrictions, and ask whether this sort of activity presents a narrative risk to the industry as a whole?

Mati Greenspan on the Technical and Macro Roots of Bitcoin’s Price Surge Jan 14, 2020

Bitcoin is up more than 8% in the last 24 hours. BSV, meanwhile, is up nearly a whopping 100%. The question is, of course, why? Is it some larger macro context? A pump-and-dump? Or just the crypto markets being as crazy as they are. The Breakdown invited guest Mati Greenspan, former e-Toro analyst and now founder of Quantum Economics to give his take.

We also look at two stories around the growing crypto derivative markets: the launch of the CME’s options on bitcoin futures and CFTC Chair Heath Tarbert’s comments yesterday that regulated derivatives will bring legitimacy to the space. Finally, we look at a just-released Investor Alert from the SEC on IEOs.

Tokenized NBA Contracts & The Hunt For Crypto’s Killer App Jan 13, 2020

Starting today, accredited investors will be able to part of $13.5m in tokenized bonds connected to the contract of Brooklyn Nets Point Guard Spencer Dinwiddie. The first-of-its-kind offering took months of negotiation with the NBA but marks a seminal moment for both crypto and the larger idea of Income Share Agreements.

In this podcast, we discuss how big a deal Dinwiddie’s offering is and whether Income Share Agreements could be a breakout use case for crypto. We also discuss other contenders for “crypto killer app,” including undercollateralized DeFi loans and NFT-based games. Finally, we discuss whether crypto’s actual killer app has already arrived - in the form of using bitcoin to escape local political and economic controls.

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | Jan 11 2020 Jan 11, 2020

All 5 episodes of The Breakdown in one long file. By popular demand, this is an experiment to see if it's useful to have the full week's episodes compiled in a single file. I've also summed up what I think is most important about the week. Let me know if you like this format or if you just find it repetitive @nlw on Twitter.

China Completes "Top-Level" Digital Currency Design Jan 10, 2020

China’s digital currency project continues to move ahead aggressively, with a new paper from the People’s Bank of China suggesting that a core design is complete. Whatever stage of development the currency actually is, it’s clear that China wants the world to see it as ahead of the curve in the digital currency race.

In other parts of the world, crypto companies face a never-ending game of regulatory arbitrage. Derebit has moved from the Netherlands to Panama, citing a new burden from AMLD5 compliance. In the U.S., New York wants to give its crypto regulators (even) more teeth while Illinois recognizes the legality of blockchain-based contracts.

Why 2020 Is The Year Of DAOs feat Aragon's Luis Cuende Jan 09, 2020

The aftershock of the 2016 The DAO hack meant that DAOs weren’t nearly as hyped as ICOs and later some other aspects of the web3 movement. In 2019, however, DAOs came roaring back and start 2020 with the wind at their sails.

In this episode, we look at the 2019 DAO tale of the tape - what people thought would happen and what actually did happen, including the launch of Moloch, MetaCartel, Ethereum’s MarketingDAO and more than 1000 DAOs on Aragon. We also hear from Aragon founder Luis Cuende who discusses 1) why the newly launched Aragon courts expand what DAOs can do; 2) examples of the need for subjective human intervention in DAOs; and 3) why 2020 is poised to be DAOs best year yet.

Travis Kling on the BTC Bump and Safe Haven Status Jan 08, 2020

The conversation about whether bitcoin is a safe haven asset continues in the wake of Iranian missile strikes, which saw the price of BTC both surge and retrace in parallel with crude and gold. To help explain what’s going on, we feature comments from Ikigai Asset Management’s Travis Kling.

Also in today’s episode, we look at newly published priorities from the SEC around crypto including investor suitability, trading practices, and compliance program effectiveness. We also discuss former Bakkt CEO and now Georgia Senator Kelly Loeffler’s appointment to the committee that oversees the CFTC. Is it a conflict of interest, something good for the crypto industry, or both?

How Compliance Costs Could Kill Crypto Innovation Jan 07, 2020

In their annual transparency report, Kraken reported seeing a 50% increase in regulatory inquiries as compared to 2018, which CEO Jesse Powell later revealed cost the exchange more than $1m. Between this and stories like the $2m it cost Blockstack to raise $23m in an SEC compliant token sale (8.7% of the raise), it begs the question: will compliance costs fundamentally limit innovation by demanding big war chests to play? Will the most successful companies be those who (like Block One) simply raise enough to pay off the regulators on the back end?

We also look at new mining interests in Texas and what it means for Amiercan mining and bitcoin mining in the lead up to the halving more broadly, as well as dissect an op-ed from the IMF’s chief economist on the strength of the dollar over digital alternatives.

What Iran and Instability Mean For Bitcoin Jan 06, 2020

Last week, the US government took out a key Iranian military leader. As the world - and the markets - reacts to the news, some are asking what happens with bitcoin. With global instability on the rise, will more people turn to bitcoin as a safe haven asset? Will speculators drive the price up on that narrative even if it doesn’t bear out in reality? If Iranians use crypto, will that draw the attention and ire of regulators?

In a different area of the industry, Telegram has released updated information about their forthcoming crypto token TON. Most notable was the bombshell that the token would not be integrated into Telegram Messenger - which was, of course, the predominant logic behind the more than $1.7B that was invested in the TON presale.

Finally, we discuss the dust up around Nakamoto.com, a new crypto journal that was almost immediately accused of affinity scamming and censorship. Is it a case of overzealous bitcoin defenders or does the critique hold merit?

YouTube, Tron and the Pipedream of Decentralized Social Networks Jan 03, 2020

The past few weeks have seen multiple instances of large, centralized tech giants censoring crypto related content and activity. Noticed in the context of the Coinbase Wallet, Apple is pushing back against apps that have anything to do with Dapps. YouTube caused even more of a stir when it took down hundreds of crypto-related videos from prominent influencers without any warning. It later reversed the action, claiming an error, but it was enough to get many to ask: are decentralized alternatives possible?

As if on cue, Justin Sun popped up to announce that TRON had struck a deal through which decentralized Twitch competitor and streaming service DLive would be moving to the TRON Blockchain and integrating with BitTorrent’s BLive streaming service. For many, however, TRON’s involvement makes DLive more likely to end up a centralized tool than a disruptive decentralized social network alternative.

Taylor Monahan on Crypto’s Divergent Possibilities in 2020 Jan 01, 2020

Taylor Monahan is the founder and CEO of MyCrypto. In this interview as part of The Breakdown’s end of year coverage, she argues that the level of discourse in crypto matured in 2019, with more focus on things that actually matter. That’s important, because in 2020, she predicts a major fork-in-the-road moment, where the industry as a whole could either stay on the path set out in its cypherpunk roots, or be significantly co-opted and corrupted by the entrace of corporate and government actors into the space.

Tom Shaughnessy & Jordan Clifford on Layer 1 Wars, Token Economics and A Shift to Applications Dec 31, 2019

Tom Shaughnessy is a co-founder at Delphi Digital as well as the host of the Chain Reaction podcast. Jordan Clifford is managing director of Scalar Capital. In this end of year interview for The Breakdown, Tom argues that the big story of 2019 was actually the fact that it was all about quiet building. When it comes to 2020, however, watch out for fireworks. Tom predicts we’ll see a major increase in the layer 1 smart contract platform wars, as well as an increased in the perceived importance of token economic design. Jordan meanwhile argues that we’re likely to see a shift back to development at the application layer.

Katherine Wu on DeFi and the Inevitability of the Digital Yuan Dec 30, 2019

Katherine Wu was a founding team member at Messari before moving into a VC role at Notation Capital, but is perhaps best known in crypto for her epic annotations of key regulatory enforcement actions. In this end of year interview with The Breakdown, Katherine argues that decentralized finance is the narrative of 2019, but also that when it comes to 2020, the emergence of a Chinese digital yuan is likely to have a huge impact on the crypto space.

Camila Russo and David Hoffman on the 2020 DeFi Outlook Dec 27, 2019

Sometimes things are clear, and to both Camila Russo (write of The Defiant newsletter) and David Hoffman (co-host of the Crypto POV podcast), it couldn’t be clearer that the essential narrative of 2019 was the rise of DeFi as a true market force. In individual interviews as part of The Breakdown’s end of year coverage, each also makes a 2020 DeFi prediction. For David, it’s all about increased attention on the space and the power of composability, while for Camila, it’s a bet that we’ll start to see the first under-collateralized DeFi loans.

Marty Bent on the Macro Fires on the Horizon Dec 26, 2019

Marty Bent is the author of one of the most popular daily Bitcoin newsletters and co-host of Tales From The Crypt. In this end of year interview with The Breakdown, he talks about the macro context - from trade wars to pressure on the fed to continue and expand the QE experiment to global instability - and how it is painting in stark colors the need for tools like bitcoin.

Rob ‘Crypto Bobby’ Paone and Preethi Kasireddy on fundraising, halvings, and the long steady slog of crypto Dec 25, 2019

Rob Paone, aka Crypto Bobby, got his start as a popular crypto YouTuber and has gone on to help build a number of crypto companies before launching his own technical recruitment firm. Preethi Kasireddy is the founder of the TruStory debate platform. In two individual interviews as part of The Breakdown’s end of year extra, both argue that a big part of the 2019 story was the slow, steady slog of building, and that, in some ways, 2020 may be poised for more of the same.

Meltem Demirors on Government Digital Currencies and Why ‘The Halvening’ Gets Weird Dec 24, 2019

One of CoinDesk’s ten most influential people of 2019, Melem Demirors is a crypto renaissance woman, known best for investing, operating as CSO of CoinShares, and for explaining ‘shitcoins’ to Congress. In this end of year Breakdown, Meltem argues explains why the entrance of governments to the digital asset game is the most significant story of 2019, as well as suggesting that the presence of an entirely new financial infrastructure around bitcoin means the halvening is likely to be unlike what anyone thinks.

Peter McCormack On A Defiant New Era For Bitcoin Dec 23, 2019

Peter McCormack is one of the most prominent podcasters in the space. In 2019, he added a new podcast called “Defiance” and focused on the intersection of bitcoin, human rights, and political activism to complement his “What Bitcoin Did” podcast. In this special end of year episode of The Breakdown, Peter discusses why the past year represents an inflection point for citizen action and sovereign protest around the world, and why 2020 is likely to see a continued bloodletting among non-bitcoin cryptoassets.

Art Haus Ethereum Meets Bitcoin Financialization Dec 20, 2019

One of the most important (yet somehow quiet) narratives of 2019 has been the financialization of bitcoin and the emergence of a robust market for derivative products. That was reinforced today as Binance announced a significant investment in derivatives exchange FTX. How will key events coming up in 2020 like the bitcoin halving be impacted by the presence of derivatives?

At the same time, not all crypto projects are trying to change money. Some, like the Saint Fame DAO, a fashion house-slash-human coordination experiment, are simply trying to do interesting things that people think are cool.

Should the Government Have A Say In Where You Invest? Dec 20, 2019

Accredited investor laws block most of the US out of technology and other types of early stage risk investing, but as the ICO boom showed, not being allowed to do something doesn’t mean that people don’t want to do it. The SEC announced prospective changes to those laws that could expand accredited status. In the world of DeFi, a number of different projects including Synthetix (with an assist from Chainlink) and Kyber are looking to more fully decentralized heading into 2020. And finally a quick review of the CoinDesk 2019 most influential list, including why Hodlonaut is the best selection.

“Stacking Sats” vs. “ETH is Money” - The Memes That Shaped 2019 Dec 18, 2019

From “digital gold” to “stacking sats” to “ETH is money,” 2019 was a year of narrative battlegrounds and meme warfare. And when every narrative is competing for scarce resources and attention, things are sure to get contentious. This special episode breaks down Ryan Selkis’ recent list of top ten crypto narratives and adds a few more worthy of note. Does “The Revolution Need Rules?” Is “Dissident Tech” the newest important area of focus.

Productizing bitcoin maximalism and the emergent of "digital assets not blockchain" Dec 17, 2019

More crypto businesses are transitioning to or choosing to focus exclusively on bitcoin only from the beginning, in some ways representing a productization of bitcoin maximalism. In China, however, the government is cracking down fiercly on resurgent crypto businesses that have taking President Xi’s positive comments about blockchain as an excuse to operate more openly. Interestingly, the attitude of many US financial firms seems to be shifting from a version of “blockchain not crypto” to “digital assets not blockchain” as they begin to adapt to demand from customers.

Authoritarian Airdrops, Derivative Competitions, and Lightning at the Point of Sale Dec 16, 2019

If 2019 saw bitcoin come together around the digital gold/digital SoV narrative, is 2020 poised for a resurgence of the idea of payments utility, thanks to Lightning powered applications? One beta test of a LN point-of-sale app suggests maybe.

Derivatives continue to grow as an area of focus for both retail and institutional traders, with CoinFLEX bringing in some new talent to expand its derivative competitions and institution-focused ErisX sending notice that futures trading would begin tomorrow.

Finally, Venezuela’s President Maduro has announced that public employees and pensioners will be given a holiday bonus of half a petro. Sincere effort or another example of how digital currencies can be a tool of control?

The ECB Gets In On Stablecoins, 2017 Token Projects Resurface & Twitter Debates: Is Crypto For Criminals? Dec 13, 2019

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s comments on stable coins flew around crypto Twitter yesterday, as she said projects in the space indicated clear demand (even while slighting bitcoin in the same statement). Meanwhile, two once hugely hyped projects - Orchid and Filecoin - have both resurfaced. What might this mean for the narrative of tokens going into 2020? Lastly, in her end of year piece for CoinDesk, Jill Carlson triggered an avalanche of commentary by arguing that crypto isn’t supposed to be mainstream, because its primary use case is to for censored transactions.

Regulatory smackdown, DeFi on Bitcoin, and Jack Dorsey’s protocol dreams Dec 12, 2019

The last few days have seen significant regulatory action, from SEC charging Shopin’s CEO with fraud over a $42m ICO to a major coordinated federal action against a $722m crypto Ponzi scheme. Over in the world of decentralized finance, meanwhile, a new project aims to show DeFi isn’t just for Ethereum. Finally, Twitter is launching a Square Crypto-like skunkworks to support or create an open social media protocol. This and more on The Breakdown.

Narrative Watch: The Tokenization Saga Continues Nov 20, 2019

Three stories about tokenization today: ShapeShift launching FOX (an exchange token); BlockTV launching a token for media contributions; Satoshi's Treasure helping Tezos distribute tokens through games. That's enough to get me curious and thinking about tokens in a historical context: the promise, the problems, and the latest.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Multi-Collateral DAI goes live / Not so privacy coins / Crypto fundraising & M&A Nov 19, 2019

After a huge amount of work, MakerDAO's multi-collateral DAI is live. Only one new token (Brave's BAT) is in the ecosystem, but it heralds the beginning of a new era. In the world of privacy coins, the MimbleWimble protocol is pushing back against a theoretical attack that some say invalidate its privacy features. Finally, Gemini makes its first acquisition.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Why did Satoshi choose Halloween to publish the bitcoin whitepaper? Oct 31, 2019

11 years ago today, on Halloween 2008, Satoshi shared the bitcoin whitepaper for the first time. The question is: why choose that date? Satoshi was extremely intentional, so it seems unlikely to be random. In this, we explore multiple explanations, including historical analogy to the Protestant Reformation as well as symbolic connection to Samhain/All Saints Day. Ultimately, we conclude that what matters is the fact that the myth-making enabled by Satoshi's departure from the scene is one of the most remarkable and unique attributes of bitcoin.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Bitmain power struggle / Russian crypto intrigue / Don't call it a QE Oct 31, 2019

Today was a quick news briefing:

Bitmain power struggles as Jihan Wu pulls a coup to return
China bans anti-blockchain sentiment
Russian crypto intrigue that could confirm the US' worst fears
Coinlist raises $10m from Jack Dorsey (among others)
The latest Fed action

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Mass Adoption - But Of What? And At What Cost? Oct 30, 2019

Times, how they've changed. The surge in bitcoin price and the explosion of China into blockchain has heads spinning. Some argue that we should be celebrating mass adoption of any type. In this audio op-ed, however, I argue that there are two key questions. First is - adoption of what? What is the connection between open, permissionless money networks and an immutable record of a political loyalty pledge? Second, what is the cost of adoption, in moral terms? As the industry ascends, these are key questions to ask now.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Narrative Watch: The New China Narrative, 2019 Edition Oct 28, 2019

China has had an ongoing role in the crypto narrative. For much of the history of the industry, it was about control of mining. Now, something new is happening. As the crypto industry gets caught up in the larger battles to shape the future of the economic order, digital currency is center spotlight and China is racing into a leadership position. Last week's comments on blockchain from China's President Xi Jinping were like a starting gun. So what's the China narrative now?

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Bitcoin Soars on China President Xi's Blockchain Comments Oct 26, 2019

On Wednesday, Zuckerberg responded to the largely hostile US Congress by reminding them that, if the US didn't proactively assert leadership around digital currencies, then China would be more than willing to fill the gap. As if they coordinated it, China's President Xi then made his first formal comments ever about blockchain, asserting that China needed to take a leadership role. Bitcoin soared 15% (although whether related or not isn't clear) and crypto Twitter debated: was this an indication of how far behind the US is getting; an affirmation that blockchain can be a tool of surveillance and control; or both?

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMKxYhVC2lJat7iB9Gec5kw/videos

Repo Market Madness & Bitcoin Macro / CT Reacts To Libra Hearings / LabCFTC Oct 25, 2019

Most of the world outside crypto twitter that saw a clip of Mark Zuckerberg's testimony would have no idea that it was, theoretically about Libra. On CT, basically everyone bemoaned the clear lack of giving-a-crap that pretty much any Congressperson had for the actual issue at hand. Elsewhere on CT, however, I announced Bitcoin Macro, a new pop-up podcast I produced for CoinDesk and two of the three first guests - Caitlin Long and Travis Kling - discuss the repo markets. Finally, a quick news rundown including a new BTC futures options product from Bakkt and a new standing blockchain office from the CFTC.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

SPECIAL EDITION: An Opinionated Recap Of Zuckerberg's Libra Testimony Before Congress Oct 23, 2019

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg testified before Congress today, nominally about Libra but actually about a lot of things. In this (opinionated) recap of the testimony, we look at:

What was different vs. the same in FB's narrative
What was different vs. the same in Congress' questions
The negotiation factors moving forward
Highlights
Predictions

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Narrative Watch: 3 Key Battlelines of the Digital Currency Wars Oct 22, 2019

The digital currency wars are getting hotter and hotter, but they're not one dimensional. This narrative watch looks at three key battlelines:

Nations vs. Private companies - who gets to make digital currencies?
Nations vs. Nations (specifically China) - competition to get their faster and better
Pegged vs. Basket vs. Fractional Reserve - the actual composition of the asset matters - as we see from pressure on Facebook to make Libra a 1:1 peg USD instead of a basket

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Poloniex leaves Circle & the USA / Binance 125x leverage / BIS says BTC failed & stabelcoins a threat Oct 18, 2019

Circle is spinning out Poloniex and the exchange's new honors want to build away from the US. Is this more evidence of the "companies leaving US" narrative or just competitive pressure? Speaking of exchanges, Binance hit $1B in cumulative profit this week and announced 125x leverage because reasons. Finally, the big boss of the financial system Bank of International Settlements released a paper effectively calling bitcoin a failure but identifying private stablecoins like Libra as a threat.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Subscribe via email: https://nlw.substack.com/

Does Bitcoin Institutionalization Threaten Cypherpunk Values? Oct 17, 2019

Chainalysis recently helped law enforcement take down a child porn ring by tracking btc addresses. This kicked off a huge conversation about how essential is it to the value proposition of bitcoin for it to be able to used for things that are against the rules - whether we like them or not. The firestorm of debate it kicked up really came down to one key question: how will institutionalization impact bitcoin? Can institutionally safe and friendly bitcoin co-exist with anti-establishment, rule breaking bitcoin?

Is FinCEN going after Telegram around money laundering? / The new, lighter Libra Association Oct 15, 2019

The fallout continues from the crazy last week in Libra, as the Association moves forward without any of its payment partners, all of whom have withdrawn at this point. Still the Association is now officially live and has a board of 5 members, only one of whom is from Facebook's Calibra subsidy. Over in the other major social network that wants its own crypto, BlockTV today reported that Telegram isn't just beset by the SEC but is dealing with a FinCEN inquiry around money laundering.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Narrative Watch: Regulators Get Rowdy (aka Why You Might Owe Money On BSV) Oct 14, 2019

Last week was apparently "government says get rekt" week in crypto. The SEC kicked things off by disapproving a bitcoin ETF proposal from Bitwise and closed things out by taking emergency action against Telegram's $1.7B ICO. In between, the IRS dropped its first crypto guidance in 5 years, indicating that forked tokens could create a tax liability, whether you want them or not. What's more, two Senators sent threatening letters to the CEOs of Visa, Stripe, and Mastercard who, along with eBay, dropped out of the Libra Association by the end of the week. The one bright spot was the CFTC saying that ETH is a commodity.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

BREAKING: Is The Libra Dream Dead? Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, eBay leave Libra Oct 11, 2019

The title says it all. Visa, Mastercard, eBay, and Stripe have joined PayPal in leaving the Libra Association. Is this the death knell for the project? Will the rest of the organizations follow suit and leave? Or does this provide a chance to Libra to shift the narrative and arise like a phoenix? Let's dig in.

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Will there ever be a BTC ETF? / CFTC says ETH a commodity / Binance accepts Alipay/WeChat pay...sorta Oct 10, 2019

The SEC has denied the most recent bitcoin ETF proposal - this time from Bitwise. Some speculate that there simply will not be an ETF on Chairman Clayton's watch. The CFTC chair meanwhile has said that the CFTC considers ETH a commodity and expects futures and other derivatives products. Finally, Binance's acceptance of Alipay/WeChat pay as a fiat onramp has prompted those companies to reiterate their anti-crypto stance.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

IRS Forks Up New Tax Guidance / DevCon Debates / Senate Pressures Libra Oct 09, 2019

The IRS dropped quite the surprise today: their first new tax guidance since 2014. Unfortunately, it seems to indicate that chains forking and airdropping users coins (whether they want them or not) creates a taxable event. Meanwhile, DevCon5 is cruising along in Osaka, complete with Ethereum scaling debates, the imminent launch of Multi-Collateral DAI, and the announcement of a new, open version of Libra (although it's not exactly clear why people are excited about this). Lastly, the real Libra faced some headwinds as US Senators put pressure on Visa, Mastercard and Stripe to follow suit with PayPal and leave the Libra Association.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Narrative Watch | The NBA, Hearthstone & Hong Kong - Why Censorship Resistance Matters Oct 09, 2019

First it was the NBA aggressively distancing itself from comments from Rockets GM Daryl Morey in support of Hong Kong protesters. Then it was Blizzard banning a player from competitive Hearthstone play for making a pro Hong Kong statement live on air. On this Narrative Watch, we dig into the uncomfortable tension between China's role in the globe business world and it's tight control over dissent and critique - and more specifically, why it is a reminder of the need for permissionless, decentralized, censorship resistant alternatives in money and technology.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Libra's shaky membership FUD / Crypto In A Congressional Race / Why BTC volume is growing in Hong Kong Oct 02, 2019

Libra is back in the spotlight after the WSJ published reports that Visa, Mastercard and others are getting cold feet after the chilly reception from regulators around the world. David Marcus took to Twitter to defend the project, while simultaneously creating a narrative line to pickup should those companies abandon the Libra Association. A challenger to Nancy Pelosi is discussing how cryptos can be used to break the power monopolies of big tech, while a new advocacy organization is taking on what they call the CA bitlicense. Finally, volume on LocalBitcoins in Hong Kong is up more than any time since the 2017 boom amidst heightened protests. The question is: who's buying?

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

SEC vs. EOS: Securities! Settlement! Scandal! Oct 01, 2019

The SEC's $24m settlement with EOS has been all anyone has been able to talk about for the last day or so. In this episode, we look at the four camps of reactions: the "they got off easy"; "you're all commies"; "it's about the consistency"; and the pragmatists. We also discuss the "Crypto Rating Council" and the general state of the SEC's securities law determinations. Insider baseball with big implications for the evolution of the industry.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Narrative Watch: Time Preference Transformation - How CT Reacted (Or Didn't) To Last Week's Price Crash Sep 30, 2019

Last week saw a 20% drop in the price of Bitcoin - much of coming in a short, 30 minute span. What it didn't see was the usual hand wringing and frantic explanations. In fact, most of last week's conversation was about totally different topics: Libra, central bank digital currencies, troubling developments for surveillance and crypto regulation in the UK. On this Narrative Watch, I explore whether this is simply a matter of the strength of fundamentals, or whether a fundamentally different time preference has taken hold.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Is bitcoin rogue state money? / The impact of Libra on central banks / Fed repo market injections continue Sep 27, 2019

News broke of Venezuela exploring whether they could use bitcoin and ether as reserve assets, prompting questions about what the potential impact of widescale adoption of bitcoin as a tool to evade sanctions might be. Libra continues to spur central banks to action. This week, the project saw some support from the UN while the ECB called it a 'wake up call' for governments. Finally, we look at the second week of Fed injections into the overnight repo markets and what it means for bitcoin.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

What's behind the BTC price crash? / Does WeWork matter for crypto? / Incognito mode for payments Sep 25, 2019

Bitcoin (and the rest of the markets) absolutely cratered yesterday, with BTC dropping from nearly $10k to under $8k before resetting a bit. Is it Bakkt backlash? Bitmex margin calls? Or a fat load of who the hell knows? Speaking of crashes, Adam Neumann is out as CEO of WeWork, the fall guy in what appears to be the beginning of a larger market reset on technology company valuations. Does that reset have implications for the crypto markets? Finally, a number of new financings including for Fold, a cashback-in-bitcoin app that keeps your data private.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Bakkt launch flop or fly? / Kik kicks the bucket, Kin lives on / SEC testifies before Congress Sep 24, 2019

Much hyped Bakkt has launched, but the volume is...less than massive. What should we think about it? Is it a sign of failure; a sign that there simply isn't demand from institutions; or was this always the likely launch pattern? Meanwhile, in the "whoa" files, messenger app Kik has shuttered to focus all remaining efforts on KIN. Hail mary (or was the ICO the hail mary in the first place)? Finally, the SEC testified in front of Congress about crypto amongst other topics. Hope you're not hungry, because this was a nothingburger.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Narrative Watch - Meme Warfare: 'Bitcoin fixes this' vs. 'ETH is money' Sep 23, 2019

Crypto markets are driven by memes. In point of fact, all markets are driven by memes and narratives, but emergent markets like crypto ratchet it up. In this Narrative Watch, we go meta to look at the state of meme warfare, going deep on two memes of the moment. Discover why 'ETH is money' is an Ethereum community response to a recent bitcoin meme talk and how 'Bitcoin fixes this' is becoming shorthand for the idea of bitcoin as a generational hedge.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Regulatory clap back / Why co's should fund open source / N. Korea crypto Sep 19, 2019

Major regulatory and law enforcement clap back as SEC targets ICOBox (who would have believed that a company named ICOBox wasn't completely above board?) and an early Ethereum advisor is arrested for extortion. Get your breath back after that one, then let's talk about, first, why for profit companies that owe their existing to open source protocols should support the development of those protocols, and second, another look at why cryptocurrency is an inherently political force, featuring North Korea creating a bitcoin-like currency for itself.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Fed cuts & repo / Binance.US's BNB surprise / Bitcoin ETF withdrawn Sep 18, 2019

The FED has pumped the equivalent of half of Bitcoin's market cap into the markets over the last couple days in what some are likening to a TAF 2.0. We discuss why this, plus today's anticipated rate cuts, matter for Bitcoin. Binance US launched today with surprise support for BNB. Finally, one of the leading Bitcoin ETF contenders withdrew its proposal yesterday.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Hashgraph & alt season dreams / Privacy coin delistings / Tokenized real estate & NBA contracts Sep 17, 2019

Hashgraph is live and alts are in the green. Is it alt season or just wishful thinking? Over in the world of security tokens, NBA players are tokenizing their contracts and startups that wanted to lead the STO revolution are pivoting to help existing asset holders tokenize their existing assets. Finally, as privacy coins get delisted from exchanges, we ask what it means for the larger battle between privacy and surveillance.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Narrative Watch: Bitcoin is Political Sep 16, 2019

As this was being recorded, Facebook was being grilled by 26 central banks about their plans for Libra. Last week, France and Germany said they'd block the project and were exploring their own digital currencies. Libra head David Marcus felt enough heat to take to Twitter to defend why the project wasn't a threat to monetary sovereignty. In this Narrative Watch, we look at how the emergence of Libra and the response among the nations of the world have made it clear that, despite Marcus' protestations, cryptocurrencies are a political force. What does it mean for bitcoin? Listen to hear the discussion.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

CLASH! The State vs. Crypto | BTC futures & DeFi Robo Advisors | Invest:Asia trend recap Sep 13, 2019

The clash of global state power and crypto seems more inevitable than ever. Germany joins France in declaring that they will block Libra (all the while being interested to explore their own digital currency). We look at not only the news, but what people like Ben Hunt and Nic Carter think it all means. We also focus on some of the new tools - BTC futures and a DeFi robo advisor - helping us not only opt out, but build alliances with the traditional financial world. Finally, we look at the trends coming out of CoinDesk's Invest:Asia event. Has the center of crypto gravity moved to Asia? Some new evidence suggests yes.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

QE is good for Bitcoin / Binance US opens next week / France to block Libra / BTC on Premier League Jerseys Sep 12, 2019

More qualitative easing out of Europe means more "look at them they're doing it we should be doing it!" from Trump means more "Bitcoin solves this" memes. Binance is geoblocking users but next week opens up Binance.US - a regulated exchange with 6 assets to start. In an interesting one-two punch, France has announced their intention to block Libra from operating while also making crypto-to-crypto trading tax exempt. Finally, we look at investment from a major record label in a digital asset platform alternative to Ethereum and one company is putting the bitcoin logo on Premier League Jerseys.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Coinbase exploring IEOs / Trump Tweets For Negative Rates / Bitcoin #s Beyond The Price Sep 11, 2019

At Invest: Asia in Singapore today, Coindesk's heat of institutional sales in Asia hinted that the company is exploring IEOs, but wouldn't comment further. As he is wont to do, Trump got everyone talking by ratcheting up his pressure on the Fed to go into negative rate territory. Bitcoiners were happy to explain why this matters. And speaking of Bitcoin, some data from Coinmetrics beyond the price that shows just how the network is thriving.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Bitcoin bank-ification / Do airdrops work? / Apple, Amazon & crypto Sep 10, 2019

A new product from Gemini which allows custody customers to trade without moving their coins out of cold storage has sparked discussions about bankification that go all the way back to the beginnings of bitcoin. Meanwhile, Stellar announces a ~$120m airdrop to Keybase users prompting the question: do airdrops work? Have they ever worked? And if so, for what? Finally, on the occasion of Apple's most recent product event, what do we know about their crypto strategy?

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Narrative Watch: Impatience, Greed or Fear? What's driving the crypto Fall blues? Sep 09, 2019

Despite Bakkt opening warehousing, BTC holding strong around $10k, and many new announcements, it's hard not to view the mood around crypto Twitter as lethargic. Is it simple impatience and the wrong time preference? Is it reflective of a recognition that alt season - at least for the 2017 ICO vintage of coins - doesn't seem anywhere on the horizon? Is it actually a more creeping nervousness around the global economy? That's what we explore on this week's Narrative Watch.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Libra vs. China: The Global Digital Money Wars Heat Up Sep 06, 2019

One of the most important global economic battles of our time is the battle to create new standards for global digital money. While bitcoin has been quietly building its case for the last decade, the story of the last few months has been all about the new contenders in private coins led by Libra and state-backed CBDCs, most notably China. On this edition, we look at the latest - new reports on Facebook lobbying hires, ECB antagonism, and a serious sense of urgency on the part of the People's Bank of China.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

The Great BTC-Alt Divergence / Epic Rap Battles Of Adoption / Derivative Games Sep 05, 2019

BTC dominance is over 70%, and the gap between its performance and everything else may be accounting for the strange dissonance between 3x BTC price growth in 2019 and the serious gloomy pallor on display on crypto Twitter. We look at that divergence in the context of Fred Wilson's state of crypto post yesterday, as well as the continued growth of bitcoin-focused derivative products and comments from Twitter/Square CEO Jack Dorsey and the Apple Pay head on BTC and crypto. And don't miss the epic rap battle of history between Hamilton and Satoshi.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Special Edition: Summer Recap & Fall Predictions from 15 of Crypto's Top VCs, Entrepreneurs & minds Sep 04, 2019

To celebrate the official end of summer and beginning of fall, I asked 15 top crypto VCs, entrepreneurs and content creators including Jill Carlson, Ari Paul, Kyle Samani, Marty Bent and more 4 questions:

What did we learn this Summer?
What are your predictions for the Fall?
What is one thing we're not talking about?
What is the price of BTC at the end of the year? (Up/Down/Sideways)

These are their responses, and together they tell the story of an interesting moment in crypto.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Narrative Watch: The Game of Coins & The Battle Over The Global Reserve Currency Aug 26, 2019

In the game of coins, you [replace the USD as the world's reserve currency or at least shore up your sovereign currency's position in the new global mix] or you die.

Over the last few months, we've seen China accelerate work on its digital currency; Binance launch Venus, a regional alternative to Libra; Tether (reportedly) working on a China yuan pegged stablecoin; and now, one of the world's best known central bankers has proposed a "synthetic hegemonic currency" to replace the USD as the world's global reserve currency. What does it all mean?

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Stablecoin battles / Trade Wars & Safe Havens / Berlin Blockchain Recap Aug 23, 2019

Libra Association on the verge of losing members? That's the report from FT as members get spooked by EU antitrust proceedings. Over in the trade war, Trump ratchets up the rhetoric against China, and we explore both how it might drive Chinese innovation and what it means for the BTC safe haven narrative. Finally, we do a quick recap of Berlin Blockchain Week so far, including the anti-surveillance forces and furries alike.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Terrorism, Sanctions & Global Opioid Rings: The Return of the Crypto Crime FUD Narrative Aug 22, 2019

What do Palestinian bitcoin brokers, bitcoin rewards via hangover deliveries and a Russian spy scandal have to do with one another? It's all on today's 3@3. First, we look at the return of the crypto crime FUD narrative, with the specter of terrorism and US OFAC action against Chinese opioid kingpins. Then, we look at whether reports of legitimate use by Palestinians, legitimate use by US consumers, or chain analysis tools for law enforcement can counteract that narrative. Finally, we look at Patrick Byrne's resignation from Overstock and its blockchain initiatives after his embroilment in a Russian spy scandal.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

EU antitrust action on Libra / SEC dings ICO rating sites / CEOs vs. China on Hong Kong Aug 21, 2019

Well that didn't take long. The European Union has already started looking into antitrust action on Facebook around Libra. In other regulatory news, US Sec of State Mike Pompeo says crypto should be regulated like SWIFT, India central bank fights for crypto ban, and the SEC announced a settlement with an ICO rating site that was paid by projects. It's all about the incentives, ultimately. Finally, we close with a look the way the Hong Kong protests are creating tension between independent private businesses and the Chinese government. Featuring commentary from longtime bitcoiner and HK resident Leo Weese.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Dovey Wan on Binance's Venus / Snowden on surveillance at Web3 / INX $130m IPO / Bitcoin Miniscript Aug 20, 2019

Binance is pursuing a strategy that is a bottoms-up "belt and road" alternative to Facebook's top down global cryptocurrency Libra. VC Dovey Wan explores that strategy, and why their Chinese announcement was more aggressive than their English. We also look at the anti-surveillance sentiment at Web3 Summit (best expressed by keynote Edward Snowden); the $130m regulated token IPO from new exchange INX; and the new Bitcoin scripting language Miniscript.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Narrative Watch: Binance, Venus and the coming battle of CBDCs & non-sovereign fiat Aug 19, 2019

Binance blew open the doors on the global battle for stablecoin supremacy today when they announced Venus - a project that seems to combine some aspects of permissioned corporate chains with central bank digital currencies (aka convenient surveillance money). What does it mean for consumers? What does it mean for governments? What does it mean for Libra? Would you chose CZ or Zuck to make your digital currency? Dig in with this #NarrativeWatch.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

The 11 Archetypes Of People You Need To Follow On Bitcoin/Crypto Twitter Aug 16, 2019

Bitcoin and Crypto Twitter are wild, weird places. On this special "sorry I'm traveling, can't give you the news" edition of 3@3, I provide a guide to 11 key types of people that you should be following for your well-rounded Twitter experience.

The evangelist
The skeptic
The maximalist
The builder
The buyer
The creator
The curator
The outsider
The philosopher
The researcher
The independent

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Ponzi scam selling, Hong Kong protest bank runs & buying creators with internet money Aug 15, 2019

Why number go down? That's all anyone was asking as BTC plunged below $10k, a line that, according to Hodlonaut, we'd never cross again. Was it Ponzi scam selling in China or something less sinister? Either way, there was a bit of snark about a safe haven narrative so quickly extinguished. Additionally, we discuss a new move from Ripple to pay creators to come to their content ecosystem and the state of indie media, as well as look at calls from Hong Kong protest leadership for an imminent bank run.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

The SEC's ICO cleanup / China's convenient surveillance money / Recruiting new blood Aug 14, 2019

What is dead may yet still die. At least, that seems to be the case as the SEC goes one by one through its list of unregistered securities offerings and outright scams. This week it was one unregistered SAFT settlement and one emergency lawsuit involving frozen assets and lifetime bans, oh my my. We also look at China's forthcoming convenient surveillance money..err..central bank digital currency. Finally, a Lambda School-Blockstack partnership brings up the question of recruiting new blood to crypto.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 8.13 | Argentina economic turbulence (feat. MakerDAO's Mariano Conti) + ETF delays & crypto dev report Aug 13, 2019

After surprise election results, the Argentine economy tumbled. The stock market fell 48%, and the peso fell some 25-30% against USD. What is the role of crypto in this type of economic black swan event, if any? I asked MakerDAO's Mariano Conti, an Argentinian based in Buenos Aires, for his thoughts. We also look at the latest Bitcoin ETF delay and some phenomenal research on crypto developer trends from Electric Capital.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 8.12 | Impending currency crisis? Plus, Binance US listing criteria and prospects [LRS Top 5] Aug 12, 2019

Bonds. Dollars. Bitcoin. Gold. That's what some are saying pay attention to at the beginning of a global currency crisis? On this week's LRS Top 5, we also look at: news from Binance US about its listing criteria and prospective token listings; KIK's aggressive response to the SEC lawsuit; Trump Administration proposals to police social media for censorship, and more. Produced in partnership with BlockTV.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 8.9 | Travis Kling on how BTC moves from risk asset to safe haven / Binance US listing framework / Crypto reality TV? Aug 09, 2019

Travis Kling joins for today's 3@3 to explore how bitcoin might move from a risk asset to a safe haven. This isn't just about narrative, it's about how bets from one group trigger another group, which confirms models, and so on, creating a self fulfilling prophecy. You don't want to miss this. Also today, we look at Binance US's new asset listing framework and 30 prospects. And we ask that all important question: does crypto need a reality TV show?

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 8.8 | Gaming, Mass Adoption and FUD Fighting Aug 08, 2019

You've heard of the PayPal Mafia, but what about the Magic the Gathering Mafia? Both SkyWeaver and Gods Unchained have serious ex-Wizards of the Coast talent in their ranks. Does this mean blockchain gaming can succeed? Also in the realm of mass adoption, Robinhood was just approved to bring its stock and crypto-buying experience to the UK. Finally, Messari takes a critical look at the FUD from earlier this week that North Korea had hacked $2B from exchanges and financial institutions.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 8.7 | Katherine Wu on KIK vs. SEC / Binance KYC Hack / Year of the DAO? Aug 07, 2019

Katherine Wu joins us as a guest to discuss her full annotation of the 117 page clap back from KIK against the SEC. What's bluster? What's business as usual for lawsuits like this? What are the actual implications for the rest of the industry? We also discuss the Binance KYC hack - what's real, what's FUD, and what we still don't know. Finally, we look at Ryan Zurrer (ex-Polychain, Web3) and his new DAO. Combined with Moloch, Metacartel and Aragon, is 2019 the year of the DAO?

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 8.6 | China, Stonks and Safe Havens Aug 06, 2019

First Trump threatened tariffs. Then China devalued the Yuan. Then Trump declared China to be currency manipulators. Then stonks went down while orange coin went up. Then everyone asked: "is Bitcoin the new safe haven asset?" For the last two days, this has been the conversation. It is a culmination of months of convergence between the Bitcoin hedge narrative and the global macro paradigm shift narrative. This special edition of 3@3 goes deep on what happened and why it matters.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 8.5 | Protests & privacy / Global macro Bitcoin / Crypto's Inevitability Aug 05, 2019

A key theme from last week's Senate Banking Committee hearing was the sense that, like it or not, cryptocurrency was an inevitable force. On this top 5 summary of Long Reads Sunday, we look at that plus how the global macro narrative is converging with Bitcoin, why the internet hasn't evolved in a way that is free and open (and how that could change) and why digital privacy is the political issue of our time.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 8.2 | Q2 Crypto Data Extravaganza! Aug 02, 2019

The Q2 crypto data reports are in, so on this special edition we’re breaking down the most interesting trends. We cover: asset performance; network activity in Bitcoin and Ethereum; the “non-correlated” narrative in Bitcoin and BTC’s relative narrative strength; the state of dapps and DeFi; IEO and exchange token performance; the impact of regulatory action; the decline of VC activity; the rise of competitive smart contract platforms; and finally end on a new emerging narrative: halving skepticism! Thanks to CoinMetrics, Circle Research and Delphi Digital for all their great work. Video: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 8.1 | UASF at 2 & power in crypto networks / Zcash dev fund / Crypto in the wild Aug 01, 2019

It was the two year anniversary of UASF (and the BCH chain split from BTC), which marked a significant moment in the history of Bitcoin. In short, the culmination of the block size war demonstrated the relative power of the distributed network of individuals running nodes over huge mining and exchange interests. In this 3@3, we look at that, as well as a new struggle around dev funding in Zcash as well as some recent examples of crypto in the wild.

Note: the video clip is from Stacy Herbert and Max Keiser's To The Moon, and features Vortex.

Watch the video: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.31 | What Fed rate cuts mean for BTC / IEO performance / Funding/M&A Roundup Aug 01, 2019

The Fed cut interest rates today for the first time in Bitcoin's life. This move is interesting directly because lower rates lead to more money in the markets. It's interesting symbolically as it represents a major narrative evolution where financial markets are actively discussing Bitcoin and not the other way around. We also look at IEO performance a few months into the phenomenon and do a quick roundup of funding and M&A action - it's all infrastructure and base layer protocols.

Watch the original at https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.30 | Recap of Senate Banking Committee Hearing On Crypto Regulation Jul 30, 2019

In their second hearing in 2 weeks, the Senate Banking Committee invited 3 panelists to discuss the current state of and recommendations for crypto and digital asset regulation. In this recap, I look at three key points: 1) the shadow of Libra and Big Tech; 2) calling BS on "bank the unbanked"; 3) the sense of inevitability.

Watch the video version: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.29 | Lightning Network vs. surveillance / US Congress response to de-Americanization / Paradigm shifts Jul 29, 2019

Weekly countdown of the 5 most important essays and threads from the week before on Long Reads Sunday. This week featuring Lightning Network vs the encroaching surveillance state; a US Congressman's response to Circle leaving the US; a hot take on the Trump Administration's interest in backdoor encryption and more.

Video produced by BlockTV

Watch the full episode: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.24 | Encryption Backdoors // Americans Trust BTC More Than Libra // Regulatory Roundup Jul 24, 2019

The US Attorney General has reignited a debate about encryption backdoors for law enforcement. Libra has a long way to go, with a recent poll finding it significantly less trustworthy to Americans than Bitcoin. And finally, a regulatory roundup including a new New York State crypto taskforce and upcoming hearings in the Senate.

Watch the video version: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.23 | Trontroversy! // Ethereum dev tax? // #IndiaWantsCrypto Jul 23, 2019

Justin Sun canceled his lunch with Warren Buffett this week, claiming kidney stones. Reports today, however, suggested that he was compelled not to leave China by border authorities due to investigations. But then he showed up in SF? So basically, wth. Also an interesting conversation about developer funding and block rewards comes to Ethereum, while members of the Indian crypto community react to aggressive new political recommendations.

Watch original: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/nlw

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.22 | The "Libra Goes To Washington" Recap [LRS56 Top 5] Jul 23, 2019

From 5 to 1, counting down the most important threads, essays and content from last week. Featuring the key setup questions for the Libra hearings; a case study of Cuba on whether a project like Libra could make a difference to the "unbanked"; the uncoupling of Libra and Bitcoin; the respond of China; and a Congressman calls Bitcoin an "unstoppable force."

Produced in partnership with BlockTV https://twitter.com/BLOCKTVnews

Watch the video version: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.19 | BitMEX vs. CFTC / Bitcoin legal in China? / Ycash and Friendly Forks Jul 19, 2019

The CFTC's investigation of BitMEX is the latest in string of screws tightening on global exchanges touching US customers. In an interesting twist, a lawsuit leads to a Chinese court determining that Bitcoin is a protected legal property. Ycash has friendly forked from Zcash, but is a friendly fork even possible?

Watch the video version: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.18 | Libra Aftermath - G7, China, and Dalio's dystopia Jul 18, 2019

Libra was a hotbutton issue at the G7 meetings - maybe the one thing they agreed on. Meanwhile, the project made news in China as Facebook's David Marcus revealed explicitly that it saw Alipay and Wechat as competitors. Meanwhile, the crypto community spilled ink discussing hedge fund titan Ray Dalio's latest missive on the coming financial paradigm shift.

Watch the live version at: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.17 | Libra Hearings Day 2 Recap - House Financial Services Committee Jul 18, 2019

On Day 2 of Libra hearings, Facebook's David Marcus testified in front of the House Financial Services Committee. And boy oh boy, it could not have been more different than yesterday. Today was massively more substantive, thoughtful, and holy crap was there a lot of comparison between Bitcoin and Libra...with Bitcoin coming out on top again and again. This day will go down as one of the most significant in Bitcoin's history.

Watch the video version at https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.16 | Libra Hearing Day 1 Recap - Senate Banking Committee Jul 16, 2019

Libra's David Marcus testified before a relatively hostile Senate Banking Committee today. In today's 3@3, we go over: 1) Facebook's trust problem; 2) the most important topics and themes of the questioning; 3) what it all means for Bitcoin.

Watch the livestreamed version on:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/nlw

Twitch - https://www.twitch.tv/nlwcrypto

Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.15 | Long Reads Sunday #55 Top 5 Jul 15, 2019

Every Sunday, I put together a list of the top tweets, threads and essays shaping the crypto conversation. On Monday, I countdown my five favorites with BlockTV. Monday's Crypto Daily 3@3 is the audio recording version.

For those who want to watch, check out the replay at: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto https://blocktv.com/ Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/nlw Follow BlockTV: https://twitter.com/BLOCKTVnews

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.12 | Special Edition: Trump Gives Bitcoin A Mainstream Moment Jul 12, 2019

A very Trump-y special edition! On this episode, we look at 1) what happened with Trump’s Bitcoin/Libra tweet; 2) the crypto community’s response; 3) the surprisingly with it mainstream media response; and 4) what it means going forward and why we need to build our own public story so that a technology with massive potential to enshrine freedom and individual sovereignty doesn’t become defamed and criminalized. Note for listeners; the second half or so of this clip is discussion from Twitch live chat. This usually doesn’t happen but with such big news there was quite a bit of excitement to discuss. Let me know if you like this or if I should cut it off for the future. For those who want to watch, check out the replay at: https://www.twitch.tv/nlwcrypto https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/nlw

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.11 | Comply or Die Token Sales | Turkey and CBDCs | Crypto Startup Studio Jul 11, 2019

On this episode, we discuss: 1) Reg A+ compliant token sales from Blockstack and YouNow and why it's becoming comply or die; 2) Turkey planning a central bank digital currency and how the crypto market is trifurcating; 3) IDEO's new crypto startup lab.

Follow on Twitter: @nlw

Watch the video version on YouTube: https://youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.10 | Alt Season Dreams & Nightmares | New Crypto Funding | Mr. Libra Goes To Washington Jul 10, 2019

We discuss: 1) the chatter around a potential alt season and what makes things different this time around; 2) new financing that shows where crypto investors heads are at (hint: infrastructure not apps); 3) the latest salvos between Libra and regulators.

Crypto Daily 3@3 - 7.9.19 | Deutsche Bank layoffs; Does Libra drown the BTC narrative? + more Jul 10, 2019

Deutsche Bank announces 18k layoffs & a photo instafamous memes a tailor with a Bitcoin bag as a fired banker
Strong counter argument against the idea that Libra is somehow good for Bitcoin
A new platform for fractionalized art and culture ownership launches

Follow on Twitter @nlw

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