The Asia Chessboard

The Exit Interview Nov 12, 2024

This week Mike hosts Jude for a final goodbye episode to get Jude's synopsis of the China watching fields ability to understand China, what they have rightly predicted, what has been missed, Beijing's politics, and many other topics discussed in previous episodes.

Myanmar After the Coup Oct 29, 2024

This week Mike and Jude are joined by Aaron Connelly, Asia diplomatic editor and senior Asia correspondent at The Economist, where he writes about geopolitics and security across Asia. They discuss his recent Adelphi Series book New Answers to Old Questions: Myanmar Before and After the 2021 Coup D’État.

US-China Relations From the Inside Oct 01, 2024

This week Mike and Jude are joined by Rick Waters, managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice. Rick previously served as the US State Department's top China policy official, overseeing the creation of the Office of China Coordination, informally known as the China House, and concurrently serving as deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan.

Kiwi Crossroads: Navigating New Zealand’s Strategic Landscape Sep 17, 2024

This week Mike and Jude are joined by David Capie, Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies and Professor of International Relations at the Victoria University of Wellington. They discuss New Zealand’s transitioning approach to its regional relationships.

Malaysia’s Path in a Contested Asia Sep 05, 2024

This week Mike is joined by Elina Noor, Senior Fellow for the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They discuss Malaysia’s approach to geopolitics and outlook for the future.

Debating America’s “Pivot” to Asia Aug 06, 2024

This week Mike and Jude are joined by joined by Robert D. Blackwill, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Richard Fontaine, Chief Executive Officer of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). They discuss their new book Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power (June 2024, Oxford University Press).

The View from INDOPACOM Jul 24, 2024

This week Mike and Jude are joined by join Lt. General Stephen Sklenka, USMC, Deputy Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. They discuss deterrence and the current state of play in the Indo-Pacific region.

NATO and the Indo-Pacific Jul 09, 2024

This week Mike and Jude are joined by Benedetta Berti, Director of Policy Planning in the Office of the Secretary General at NATO, whose areas of expertise include human security, internal conflict, integration of armed groups, post-conflict stabilization, and peacebuilding among others. They discuss NATO’s developing perspectives on the Indo-Pacific region.

How Will Taiwan's New Leader Govern? Jun 25, 2024

This week Mike and Jude are joined by Kathrin Hille to discuss Taiwan after the inauguration of Taiwanese President Lai, and what it means for the United States. Kathrine Hille is the Greater China Correspondent at the Financial Times, where she covers Taiwan, regional security, and hardware technology.

How Demographics Impact Security in the Indo-Pacific Jun 12, 2024

This week, Mike and Jude meet with Andrew Oros to discuss demographic shifts in Asia and how those shifts affect the geostrategic balance in the region. Andrew Oros is Professor of Political Science and International Studies, and the Director of the International Studies Program at Washington College.

How Sri Lanka Navigates Great Power Competition May 28, 2024

This week, Mike and Jude meet with Amb. Julie Chung to discuss geopolitical competition in Sri Lanka and how it has developed in recent years. Ambassador Chung is the current U.S. Ambassador to Sri Lanka and is a career member of the foreign service, having previously held senior positions throughout the Indo-Pacific and Western Hemisphere.

Taiwan Decides: Assessing Taiwan’s Presidential Election Apr 02, 2024

This week, Mike and Jude discuss the recent presidential legislative elections in Taiwan with Richard Bush, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and the former chairman and managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan.

A Journalist’s Take on the U.S.-China Relationship Mar 12, 2024

Mike and Jude are joined by Demetri Sevastopulo, US-China Correspondent at the Financial Times. Demetri discusses covering China as a member of the news media and of what it takes to break news on China in a competitive market. Jude, Mike, and Demetri then exchange views on US-China relations today, including recent bilateral diplomacy and evolving cross-Strait dynamics. Next, they turn to debate on the US-China relationship in Washington, exploring the nature and bounds of bipartisan “consensus” on China. They conclude by discussing how nations around the world are viewing the US election.

The State of the US-India Relationship Feb 27, 2024

Mike is joined by Lisa Curtis, Senior Fellow and Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. The conversation begins with a review of the contemporary and historical factors encouraging India and the United States to expand their partnership. Next, they examined the remaining hurdles for the relationship, including the recent Sikh assassination plots. They conclude by discussing the perception of democratic backsliding in India and the role of India’s foreign policy choices in shaping US-India relations.

Australia’s Economic Future in a Shifting Geo-economic Landscape Feb 13, 2024

Mike is joined by Dr. John Kunkel, Senior Economics Adviser at the United States Studies Centre. Dr. Kunkel has worked as an economist, speech writer, policy analyst, and adviser to government and industry executive and previously served as Chief of Staff to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. He has a PhD in Economics from the Australian National University and is the author of "America's Trade Policy Towards Japan: Demanding Results", a study of US-Japan trade relations from Reagan to Clinton.

The conversation begins by placing the Australian economy amid the shifting economic order of recent years. Mike and John note that the contemporary Australian debate has come late in adapting to these global economic changes, partially due to the country’s large resource base and overall economic resilience and flexibility. They discuss the unique position of Australia’s experience with globalization, which allowed it to avoid the worst of the domestic economic drawbacks that afflicted Europe and the United States. They then delve into the impact of ‘Bidenomics’ and US industrial policy on the economic debate in Australia, assessing how Australia is looking at these more protectionist policies to understand both the wrinkles and opportunities they present. After a discussion of evolving global economic dynamics and what a new American trade agenda should look like, they conclude by discussing an upcoming economic security conference in Australia, which is targeted at interpreting different international economic security policies, and tracking how these are transitioning over time.

Southeast Asia in a Shifting Global Order Jan 02, 2024

Mike is joined by Dr. Joseph Chinyong Liow, the Tan Kah Kee Chair of Comparative and International Politics at Nanyang Technological University, where he is also a Research Advisor for the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

The conversation begins with a review of the state of U.S.-China strategic competition in the aftermath of APEC 2023, and underscores regional discontent with the perceived lack of commitment from the United States to economic ties and international trade in the Indo-Pacific. They then turn to Singapore’s grand strategy that seeks to advance its interests amidst the discernible signs of escalating conflict among global powers and the ongoing transformation of the global order. Next they examine the new emphasis on ideological concerns in the foreign policy choices of states in the region. Finally, they conclude by discussing the conflict in Gaza and reactions in Singapore and the region.

Cold Rivals Dec 19, 2023

Mike and Jude are joined by Evan Medeiros, Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies and the Cling Family Senior Fellow in US-China Relations at Georgetown University. He is also a Senior Advisor with The Asia Group and previously served for six years on the staff of the National Security Council as Director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia - and then as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asia. He is editor and contributing author to the recent book Cold Rivals: The New Era of US-China Strategic Competition.

The conversation begins by evaluating the relative successes and failures of U.S. engagement toward China over previous decades and the state of the U.S.-China relationship. They review the field of China studies in the United States, exploring how it has adjusted in recent years in response to a changing China and evolving bilateral ties. After assessing the effects of Xi Jinping’s arrival on China’s political stage on bilateral relations and the current state of crisis communications between the U.S. and China, they conclude by forecasting the what the relationship will hold in the coming years and the challenges and pitfalls of managing strategic competition.

The Sino-Russian Strategic Alignment Dec 05, 2023

Mike and Jude are joined by Sergey Radchenko, the Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Sergey is an accomplished author, and has written extensively on the Cold War, nuclear history, and on Russian and Chinese foreign and security policies.

The conversation begins by delving into the nature of Beijing’s ties with Moscow, and how they have evolved from the Cold War. They explore points of divergence in the interests of China and Russia, and assess how both countries have reacted to frictions in the relationship over time. Next, they turn to the war in Ukraine, examining to what extent tightening Beijing-Moscow ties might have affected Putin’s ultimate decision to invade, and then discuss China’s strategic interests in how the conflict ends. Finally, they discuss ideological alignment between China and Russia, and how each state aims to shape the global order, before briefly considering the scope of Russia’s likely responses to escalating tensions between the U.S. and China in Asia.

Vietnam’s Great Power Hedge Oct 31, 2023

Mike and Jude are joined by Huong Le Thu, Deputy Director of the Asia Program at the International Crisis Group. She is also an Adjunct Fellow with the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS and a former senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Her research on Vietnam’s defense and foreign policy, Southeast Asia’s security, ASEAN regionalism, and China-Southeast Asia relations has featured in a wide range of publications.

The conversation begins with an overview of Vietnam’s geostrategic landscape, exploring how the strategic thinking of its political leaders has matured over the recent years and months. Next, they describe Vietnam’s recent attempts to leverage competition between China and the United States to its advantage. They delve into the drivers behind Vietnam’s recent decision to upgrade its relationship with the United States to a comprehensive strategic partnership and review areas in which Chinese inroads in South and Southeast Asia may be underappreciated in the West. They then explore the ways in which Vietnam is adopting an omnidirectional foreign policy, seeking to improve its resilience by buttressing relations with as many partners as possible. Finally, they discuss the evolving role Vietnam envisions for ASEAN as it broadens its partnerships outside the region.

Japan’s Approach to De-Risking Oct 03, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Mr. Tatsuya Terazawa, Chairman and CEO of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan. Previously he served as the Senior Advisor of the Cabinet Office of Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura. Earlier he served at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan where he held leading positions including the Vice-Minister for International Affairs. He is also the Senior Specially Appointed Professor at the Tokyo University of Science, where he teaches international negotiations.

The conversation begins by examining how Tokyo is approaching de-risking and technology competition. They describe Japan’s early experiences facing economic coercion as a driving force behind its development of an economic security strategy. Next, they explore China’s role in the clean energy transition, emerging policy responses to its control of key inputs in the West, and the approaches U.S. and allied governments need to pursue to stay competitive. They note the importance of better coordination among stakeholders involved in climate politics, energy policies, and economic security. After discussing the dispute between China and Japan over the release of wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear facility, they end by examining the difficult balancing act of taking measures to reduce national CO2 emission while safeguarding partner state business interests.

Myanmar’s Closing Sep 19, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Erin Murphy, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow for the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where she is currently transitioning to the Asia Program. Erin's career has so far spanned public and private sector roles, including as an analyst on Asian political and foreign policy issues at the Central Intelligence Agency, director for the Indo-Pacific at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and founder and principal of a boutique advisory firm focused on Myanmar. She is also the author of Burmese Haze: US Policy and Myanmar's Opening-and Closing (Association for Asian Studies, 2022).

The conversation begins by examining the state of affairs in Myanmar, including the lead up and aftermath of the 2021 military coup. Next they explore Myanmar’s relationship with China and the degree of Beijing’s policy influence over the the current leadership. They observe Myanmar’s evolving relationships with India and Japan, before turning to consider the space available for China to make common cause with other countries in the region to address some of the problems unfolding in Myanmar. They conclude by discussing the impact of the ongoing crisis in Myanmar on ASEAN, and surveying Myanmar’s possible trajectories in the medium and long term.

India’s Strategic Evolution Sep 05, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by C. Raja Mohan, Senior Fellow with the Asia Society Policy Institute in Delhi and Visiting Research Professor and former Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) at the National University of Singapore. Mohan was the founding director of Carnegie India in Delhi – the sixth international center of Carnegie Endowment for Peace, and has previously served on India’s National Security Advisory Board.

They begin by examining India’s strategic outlook since the end of the Cold War, considering India’s history, the evolution of its economic model, and shifts in the political perspectives and priorities of the Indian government. They then turn to India’s role in BRICS – examining the relationship of India and China within the organization, the reasoning behind India's participation in BRICS, and implications of the August 2023 BRICS summit. Next they discuss Delhi’s changing relationship with Taipei and expanding engagement with Japan and Australia. The conversation concludes with an assessment of what India wants for its strategic future, and how it would interact with the international world order.

Multipolarity in Southeast Asia Aug 01, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Thomas Parks, Country Representative for Thailand with The Asia Foundation and author of the recently published book Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future: Averting a New Cold War.

They begin with an overview of Southeast Asia’s experience during and following the Cold War and discuss the region’s desire to avoid a re-division into blocs. They explore how regional states are seeking to preserve strategic ambiguity in their international relations and diversify their economic partnerships to avoid becoming highly dependent on any one great power.

They then consider the effects a conflict in Taiwan would have on regional states’ autonomy and probable reactions if conflict were to occur, as well as regional perspectives on the prospects for major U.S.-China decoupling and associated vulnerabilities.

The conservation concludes by exploring space for multipolar cooperation in the region among small and middle powers, how they have prioritized deep connections with each other, and how this in turn allows them to enter into robust security or economic relationships with major powers while also preserving the perception of autonomy in the eyes of their peers.

ASEAN's Future Under Great Power Rivalry Jul 11, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Mr. Choi Shing Kwok, Director & Chief Executive Officer of the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, and head of the ASEAN Studies Centre and Singapore APEC Study Centre, to discuss ASEAN perspectives on issues in the Indo-Pacific.

The conversation first examines ASEAN’s current structure, organizational challenges, and the diversity of its individual members. They then discuss ASEAN’s relationships and interaction with other regional players, including Japan and Australia. Next, they turn to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s 2023 Survey Report on the State of Southeast Asia, reviewing how the region views U.S.-China tensions and the priorities of the ASEAN nations as they navigate rising U.S.-China competition. They analyze the reactions of ASEAN members to Secretary Blinken’s June trip to Beijing and discuss survey trends which suggest growing support for the United States and the Quad in Southeast Asia. They conclude by considering how U.S. policy could be best designed to improve levels of trust among ASEAN member publics.

Australia's Evolving Defense Strategy Jun 13, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Professor Peter Dean, Director of Foreign Policy and Defense at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, and the principal drafter of the Australian government’s recent Defence Strategic Review, to discuss developments in Australia’s defense planning.

The conversation begins with a discussion of the Defence Strategic Review and the significant shift in Australia's strategic outlook that it represents. Next, Mike, Jude and Peter discuss how the perceived sustainability of U.S. engagement in the region factors into Australian defense planning. They examine developments in Chinese military capabilities that Canberra is watching closely, and what responses might be demanded. They then consider the complications of executing a cultural transformation in Australia’s defense forces and building national resilience. After turning briefly to Australia’s relationship with Taiwan and potential reactions to a contingency in and around the Taiwan Strait, they conclude with a discussion of the evolving U.S.-Australia alliance and how its further development can underpin stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

Beijing's Overreach Jun 02, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Dr. Susan Shirk, Founding Chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego and the author of Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise (Oxford University Press, 2022), which examines the evolution of China’s domestic and foreign policy over the last 15 years.

The conversation begins by examining steps taken toward political decentralization and economic liberalization under Hu Jintao—and the reversal of these trends under Xi Jinping. Next, they discuss Xi’s governance style and the shortcomings of loyalty-based political systems. The discussion then turns to the recent G7 summit in Hiroshima and China’s reaction to its outcomes. After assessing U.S. China policy during the Trump and Biden administrations, they then consider how Xi might respond to renewed diplomatic overtures. After a discussion of the risks of U.S. overreaction to Beijing’s policies, they conclude with reflections on what—if any—actions can be taken to stabilize the deteriorating U.S.-China relationship.

Economics, Security, and Alignment: The Perspective from Australia May 09, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Scott Morrison, former Australian Prime Minister and leader of the Federal Parliamentary Liberal Party from 2018-2022. The conversation begins by assessing developments in China-Australia relations during Morrison’s time in office, delving into the various equities at play and domestic debates that unfolded as the government reevaluated the links between economics and national security and moved to a tougher approach on China.

They then discuss Australia’s experience with Chinese economic coercion, and the importance of finding alignment between partners to build resilience to Chinese pressure. Next, they reflect on the growing strategic importance of the Quad, AUKUS, and Australia’s relationship with India. They wrap up with a discussion of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific, assessing effective elements and identifying where U.S. policy needs to be improved.

A Crucial Decade: China Policy during the George W. Bush Administration Apr 19, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Paul Haenle, Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair of Carnegie China and former China director for the National Security Council staffs of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and Faryar Shirzad, who served in the Bush administration with Paul as deputy national security advisor for International Economic affairs and is now Chief Policy Office at Coinbase.

They begin by recapping economic and security ties between the United States and China at the outset of the Bush administration in 2001, discussing the administration’s China policy and the legacy of its approach to Asia more broadly. The conversation turns to the broader implications of trends in U.S.-China economic relations, which are increasingly characterized by heightened government controls and expectations of national loyalty among multinational firms. Next, they emphasize the importance of placing the U.S.-China relationship on better footing and improving communication. They observe how the Bush administration’s efforts to shape the geopolitical environment around China have borne out today and conclude with a call for renewed U.S. pursuit of economic diplomacy. Throughout the conversation, they discuss Hand-Off, a collection of once-classified memos that the Bush administration passed to the incoming Obama administration to support a smooth transition for U.S. foreign policy.

What Can be Done About North Korea? Mar 22, 2023

On July 16, 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed an indictment charging Sue Mi Terry with violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act. The indictment alleges activities that took place, in part, during a period in which Ms. Terry was employed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. CSIS is not a party to this litigation and takes the allegations seriously. CSIS maintains strict policies to ensure full compliance with the Foreign Agents Registration Act and the intellectual independence of its scholarship. In light of these serious allegations, CSIS cannot verify the independence of the scholarship of this material containing the views of Ms. Terry and has therefore archived this content pending the resolution of the charges.

Taking Stock of U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy Mar 07, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Kurt M. Campbell, Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs in the National Security Council, and Mira Rapp-Hooper, Senior Adviser on China at the U.S. Department of State's Policy Planning Staff. They begin by discussing educational and professional experiences that build the groundwork for successful careers in international relations. They then discuss the recent one-year anniversary of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, noting that the approach reflects the recognition of “a new strategic era” in the region. They underline the Strategy’s focus on alliances and emphasize the importance of promoting broader regional engagement and shared interests beyond the framework of competition with China. Next, they discuss the implications of China’s evolving diplomatic approach towards the United States and regional partners. They conclude the conversation by exploring recent narratives of China’s overreach, and how U.S. strategy might react to a course correction in Beijing that would present China as a stronger, more reliable partner in the Indo-Pacific.

Calling Check: Technology Competition with China Feb 21, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Emily Kilcrease, director of the Energy, Economics, and Security program at CNAS, who formerly served as deputy assistant U.S. trade representative and National Security Council director for international trade, investment, and development. They begin by examining the limits of U.S. leverage over semiconductor supply chains and how existing advantages are maintained by the continual innovation and investment of U.S. industry. They then discuss the U.S. government’s capacity to use semiconductor manufacturing chokepoints to slow China’s technological development and the recent expansion of U.S. export controls relating to sensitive high-end technologies. Next, they considered the broader effects of U.S. technology export policies and the need for the United States to adopt a multilateral approach that protects the high-tech industries of allies. They conclude the conversation by considering what form China’s response—and potential retaliation—to the new export controls might take.

Japan Steps Up Jan 17, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Christopher B. Johnstone, former National Security Council director for Asia under President Biden and director for Japan and Oceanian affairs under President Obama who now serves as senior adviser and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). They begin with a look at what Japan’s new national security strategy means for its role in the region and the U.S.-Japan alliance. Next, they turn to China-Japan relations, examining how Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration is navigating declining Japanese public sentiment toward his country’s largest trading partner. They then discuss how conversations in Tokyo are unfolding about what type of role Japan might play in a potential conflict in and around Taiwan. The conversation concludes by examining how crisis management and crisis communications mechanisms between Taiwan, Japan, and China are evolving.

Balance of Power in Southeast Asia Jan 03, 2023

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Bilahari Kausikan, Chairman of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore, and former Ambassador-at-Large and former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore. They start off the discussion with a look into Singapore’s history and how it has shaped its foreign policy outlook. Next, they discuss the effectiveness of ASEAN in maintaining balance of power in Southeast Asia. They then discuss China’s foreign policy trajectory, Southeast Asia’s position amidst heightened U.S.-China competition, and the performances of other Southeast Asian partnerships. Finally, they wrap up the discussion with a conversation on the future of the Sino-Russian relationship.

Chinese Statecraft in the Pacific Islands Dec 12, 2022

This week, Mike and Jude sit down with Pete Connolly, a retired officer in the Australian Defence Force and Adjunct Fellow with the Asia Program at CSIS, to discuss Chinese statecraft in the Pacific Islands. They start by unpacking China’s strategic interests in Melanesia and the Pacific Islands more broadly, and what its involvement in the region means for the U.S., Australia, and other allies and partners. Next, they dive into the military implications of increasing Chinese activity in the region. They then unpack allied interests in the Pacific Islands and local perceptions of China, the U.S., and Australia.

Unpacking the U.S. National Security Strategy Nov 07, 2022

In this episode of the Asia Chessboard, Mike and Jude are joined by Dr. Gorana Grgic, a jointly appointed Senior Lecturer at the Department of Government and International Relations and the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, to discuss the recently released U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Defense Strategy (NDS). They start off the discussion by highlighting the key takeaways, and what was missing, from the National Security Strategy. They then discuss how U.S. priorities and resource allocations are reflected in the NSS, and what these signal for U.S. allies. To close out the discussion, they discuss how the National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy fit together to create a broader picture of U.S. strategic priorities.

India’s Evolving Partnerships Oct 17, 2022

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Manjari Chatterjee Miller, senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), to take a deep look into India’s evolving partnerships and its position in the global system. They start by discussing India’s role in the Quad and how it has shifted in recent years. They then unpack India’s broader cooperative efforts within the Indo-Pacific. Finally, they assess the impact of the war in Ukraine on the India-Russia relationship, and what public perception of the war has been in India.

Xi's Rule and Risks Sep 06, 2022

This week, Mike and Jude sit down with Bates Gill, Head of the Department of Security Studies and Criminology at Macquarie University, to discuss his recent book, Daring to Struggle: China's Global Ambitions Under Xi Jinping. They begin by discussing Gill’s career trajectory and key themes that emerge from the book. They then dive deeper into China’s trajectory under Xi Jinping’s leadership, focusing on Xi’s risk tolerance and China’s near-term ambitions. Finally, they outline near-term actions the U.S. and its allies could take to bolster strategic deterrence against China.

The Legacy of Shinzo Abe Aug 01, 2022

This week, Mike welcomes new co-host, Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS, to interview Mike on the strategic and political legacy of Shinzo Abe, following the assassination of the former Japanese Prime Minister on July 8. The two start by discussing how Abe’s personal background and the geopolitical climate in Japan impacted Abe’s political career, his influence on Japan’s foreign policy by the end of his term in 2020, and the evolution of domestic and international perception of Abe as a leader. They then unpack Abe’s impact on Japan-China relations and U.S.-Japan relations, and how he successfully lead Japan to productive cooperation with both major powers. They wrap up the discussion by assessing the long-term impact of Shinzo Abe on Japan’s foreign policy, and the lasting policies and partnerships that will carry Japan forward over the coming years.

Pawn or King: The Future of the IPEF and Economic Statecraft in Asia Jun 06, 2022

This week, Mike is joined by Wendy Cutler, Vice President at the Asia Society Policy Institute, to unpack President Biden’s economic strategy towards the Indo-Pacific and his May 2022 trip to Asia. The two discuss the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and regional reactions to its various pillars and incentives, prospects for a digital trade agreement, and China’s bid to join CPTPP. How can the United States engage with allies and partners in the region to promote fair trade, supply chain resiliency, and other rules and norms?

Counting the Pieces: Defense Spending and the “Ever Shrinking Fighting Force” May 23, 2022

This week, Mike sits down with Major General Arnold L. Punaro (USMC ret.), Chief Executive Officer of the Punaro Group, to discuss his new book, The Ever-Shrinking Fighting Force, which covers the history of U.S. defense spending and why the number of warfighters is declining despite budget increases. Mike and Maj. Gen. Punaro start off by analyzing the defense budget process and lay out three reasons why the U.S. military is not getting “enough bang for its buck,” to include the acquisition process, the cost of an all-volunteer force, and a massive overhead. Drawing from his experience working in Congress, Maj. Gen. Punaro dives deeper into the politics of defense spending and its impact on the Indo-Pacific region. Lastly, the two touch on the war in Ukraine and constraints on U.S. capacity to operate on multiple fronts.

Land Power on the Asia Chessboard: USARPAC Commander General Charles Flynn May 02, 2022

This week, Mike is joined by General Charles Flynn, Commanding General of U.S. Army Pacific, to discuss the role of the Army in the Indo-Pacific. They touch on the history of the Army’s engagement in the region, the foundational capabilities of U.S. Army Pacific, and threats to the regional security environment. General Flynn details his efforts to coordinate and build trust between the U.S. Army and allies and partners in the region, including Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

New “Knight” on the Board: The Impact of South Korea’s Presidential Election Apr 18, 2022

This week, CSIS Korea Chair Victor Cha returns as a guest on the Asia Chessboard to analyze the most recent South Korean presidential election and how it has impacted the geopolitics of the Korean peninsula. Mike and Victor discuss president-elect Yoon’s foreign and domestic policy agenda, political mandate, and views on various bilateral relationships including with the United States, China, and Japan. How will Yoon’s “security first” position dictate his foreign policy, especially concerning China and North Korea? Will he be able to work with President Biden and Prime Minister Kishida on strengthening economic and security cooperation?

Line of Advantage: Japan’s Grand Strategy in the Era of Shinzo Abe Mar 28, 2022

This week, Andrew Schwartz guest hosts the Asia Chessboard to discuss Michael Green’s new book, “Line of Advantage: Japan’s Grand Strategy in the Era of Shinzo Abe.” Andrew asks Mike about the origins of the book and how former Prime Minister Abe changed Japan’s strategic trajectory during his tenure. The two also discuss the U.S.-Japan alliance, President Biden’s approach to Japan, and current events in the region concerning Ukraine, Taiwan, and South Korea.

Note: this conversation was recorded on March 17th, 2022.

Blue Squares on the Chessboard: The History and Geopolitics of the Pacific Islands Mar 14, 2022

This week, Mike discusses the dynamic geopolitics of the Pacific Islands with Georgetown University Professor Patricia O’Brien. Mike and Patty explore the post-World War II history of this complex region, analyze recent political trends in key countries such as Samoa, the Solomon Islands, and Fiji, and explain how the Pacific Islands fit in with overall U.S. strategy in Asia. The two also touch on how U.S.-China competition impacts the region and the Biden Administration’s efforts to renegotiate the Compacts of Free Association (COFA) between the United States, Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), the Federated States of Micronesia (Micronesia), and the Republic of Palau (Palau).

Check Mates: ANZUS and the Chessboard Feb 22, 2022

This week, Mike is joined by the inaugural Australia Chair at CSIS, Dr. Charles Edel. The two start with an important discussion on the intersection of history and strategy, the strategic mind of John Quincy Adams, and the need for an Australia Chair in Washington as Australian influence on U.S. decisionmaking becomes more significant. Mike and Charles also assess the Biden administration’s new Indo-Pacific strategy, Australia’s role in increasing multilateral cooperation in the region, including within AUKUS and the Quad, and Australia’s deepening relationship with Japan.

Reviewing the Chessboard: U.S., China and the 2021 USCC Report to Congress Feb 07, 2022

This week, Mike is joined by Carolyn Bartholomew and Robin Cleveland, Chair and Vice Chair of the 2021 Annual Report Cycle for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. Mike, Carolyn, and Robin discuss the history and mandate of the commission, the process behind drafting the 2021 report, and topline findings and recommendations. Topics include concerns about Chinese nuclear capabilities, investment risks, funding for INDOPACOM, U.S. presence in the region, and Chinese influence in Latin America.

Twilight Struggle: Lessons from the Cold War for China Strategy Today Jan 24, 2022

This week, Mike is joined by Hal Brands, the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), to discuss his new book, The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us about Great-Power Rivalry Today. Mike and Hal analyze the merits of applied history and how the Cold War is an appropriate lens through which to gain insights about current U.S.-China long-term competition. How can lessons from the Cold War inform current U.S. strategy? Is the United State prepared for long-term competition? What is the U.S. theory of victory?

The Asia Shogi-board: Strategic Insights with Yoichi Funabashi Dec 13, 2021

This week, Dr. Green is joined by Dr. Yoichi Funabashi, chairman of the Tokyo-based think tank Asia Pacific Initiative, to discuss geopolitical and economic trends in the Indo-Pacific and Japanese grand strategy. Dr. Funabashi talks about the evolution of Japan’s foreign policy strategy, from the Abe administration to the new Kishida administration, as well as the role of the U.S.-Japan alliance in Japan’s strategic thinking. The two also touch on Japan’s relationship with South Korea, economic security, and Japan’s prospects for acquiring strike capabilities.

AUKUS and Changing Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific Nov 29, 2021

This week, Mike unpacks recent developments in the U.S.-Australia alliance, including the AUKUS agreement, with Rory Medcalf, professor and head of the National Security College at Australia National University. The two discuss the second edition to Rory’s book, Indo-Pacific Empire: China, America and the contest for the world's pivotal region, and how regional dynamics and geopolitics have changed over the past two years. What were the conditions that lead to the AUKUS agreement, and what is its strategic significance in the context of U.S.-China competition? What are the major “hotspots” in the Indo-Pacific that the United States and Australia should be concerned about?

Moving Pieces on the Chessboard: Strategy and Logistics in the Indo-Pacific Nov 15, 2021

For the 50th episode of the Asia Chessboard, Mike is joined by David Berteau, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Logistics and Material Readiness, to discuss the intersection of strategy and logistics in the Indo-Pacific. How do we get U.S. forces into the region, and once they are there, how do we sustain them? How should the U.S. incorporate allies and partners into logistics planning? How do logistics impact U.S. extended deterrence? These questions of how to implement U.S. Asia strategy are important to consider given the current security environment and China challenge.

From the Archives: Conversations with Richard Armitage, Kurt Tong, and Senator Jack Reed Nov 01, 2021

Ahead of the 50th episode of the Asia Chessboard, we thought we would take a look back at some of our favorite conversations with key players from the past two and a half years. The first conversation is with Ambassador Richard Armitage, in which he and Mike grade the U.S., Japanese, and Chinese grand strategies in Asia. The second conversation features a discussion with Ambassador Kurt Tong on how the United States can rebuild its trade strategy in Asia. The last conversation is from our episode with Senate Armed Services Committee Ranking Member Jack Reed on the bipartisan nature of U.S. Asia strategy and the Pacific Deterrence Initiative.

Nuclear Pieces on the Asia Chessboard: U.S., China, and Extended Deterrence Oct 18, 2021

This week, Mike discusses the nuclear pieces on the Asia Chessboard with Caitlin Talmadge, professor at Georgetown University, as they explore the multipolar nuclear deterrence environment in the Indo-Pacific region. Mike and Caitlin analyze U.S. and Chinese nuclear capabilities, including China’s recent military build-up, the potential for nuclear arms races in the region, and the relationship between nuclear and conventional forces. They also touch on the debate surrounding a “no first use” nuclear policy and the upcoming U.S. nuclear posture review.

Antipodean Knight: Australia on the Chessboard Sep 27, 2021

This week, Mike is celebrating 70 years of U.S.-Australia relations with Peter Jennings, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The two discuss the history and evolution of the ANZUS treaty and how alliance dynamics play out in both Washington and Canberra. They also contemplate the future of the alliance, including deepened U.S.-Australia security cooperation, the role of New Zealand in the alliance, Australian military capabilities, and trilateral cooperation with Japan.

Material Advantage: FOIP and U.S. Alliances in Asia Sep 13, 2021

This week, Mike is back in the studio with Heino Klinck, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia, to unpack the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy and how it relates to U.S. allies and partners. Heino and Mike begin by exploring Chinese strategy towards the U.S. alliance network in Asia. They then discuss how U.S. allies and partners like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia should think about their roles, missions, and capabilities in response to Chinese aggressive behavior in the region.

Pivotal Player: Marty Natalegawa and U.S.-Indonesia Relations Aug 23, 2021

This week, Mike sits down with Raden Mohammad Marty Muliana Natalegawa, former Foreign Minister of Indonesia, to explore current U.S.-Indonesia relations and U.S. foreign policy towards Southeast Asia. The two discuss Marty's time in government, and how the bilateral relationship should deal with issues like Myanmar, Covid-19, Chinese assertiveness, and climate change. Mike and Marty also talk about the importance of collaboration on democracy support in the region, and touch on the current situation in Afghanistan.

Key Square Part II: A Discussion on Taiwan with Jim Moriarty Aug 09, 2021

This week, Mike is joined by Ambassador James Moriarty, chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, to discuss his perspectives on political and security dynamics in the Taiwan Strait. Ambassador Moriarty considers how U.S. policy towards Taiwan has changed over his professional career, and examines Beijing’s intentions towards Taiwan. Finally, Mike and Ambassador Moriarty debate what Washington, Taipei, Tokyo and others need to do to maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait, emphasizing the need for increased deterrence and defense in depth.

Key Square: Taiwan on the Chessboard with Bonny Lin Jul 06, 2021

This week, Mike sits down with Bonny Lin, senior fellow for Asian security and the new director of the China Power Project at CSIS, to talk about one of the hottest topics on the Chessboard: the Taiwan Strait. Bonny and Mike assess if China and Taiwan are truly on the brink of war and dive into China's overall strategy towards Taiwan, including gray zone coercion and disinformation campaigns. They also discuss what U.S. commitment to Taiwan's security means for the region, and how U.S. allies in Asia and Europe fit into U.S. and Chinese strategic planning regarding the Taiwan Strait.

Pawn or Queen? ASEAN on the Chessboard Jun 21, 2021

This week, Mike sits down with Amitav Acharya, UNESCO Chair in Transnational Challenges and Governance and Distinguished Professor at American University, to unpack Amitav’s new book, ASEAN and Regional Order: Revisiting Security Community in Southeast Asia. Amitav and Mike assess the current state of ASEAN, its durability, and the meaning of ASEAN centrality. They also discuss the role of the QUAD, the impact of U.S.-China competition on Southeast Asia, and how the U.S. can improve its engagement with Southeast Asia.

The Indian Ocean and the Asia Chessboard Jun 07, 2021

This week, Mike is joined by Darshana Baruah, associate fellow with the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to discuss the strategic significance of the Indian Ocean to the United States and our allies and partners in the region. Darshana provides historical context for the new focus on the Indo-Pacific, and dives into the politics of the Indian Ocean region. Mike and Darshana also tackle the rise of Chinese influence and how the Indian Ocean fits in with U.S.-China strategic competition. Overall, the two agree that there needs to be more focus in the United States on building a presence in the Indian Ocean, and in dealing with the Indian Ocean as a whole, rather than dividing it into geographical silos.

Rethinking U.S. Strategy on the Chessboard with Mike O’Hanlon May 24, 2021

This week, Mike is joined by Mike O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, to discuss his new book, “The Art of War in an Age of Peace,” and how his new vision for U.S. grand strategy relates to the Asia-Pacific. The two begin by defining what “resolute restraint” means for U.S. Asia policy, especially regarding the rise of China, as they explore issue areas like the South China Sea. O’Hanlon makes a distinction between restraint and retrenchment, and argues for prioritizing existing commitments in Asia to our treaty allies, rather than creating new security obligations.

Europe and the Asia Chessboard May 10, 2021

This week, Mike is joined by Eva Pejsova, Senior Japan Fellow at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS) at Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), and Luis Simon, Director of the CSDS at the Brussels School of Governance and Director of the Brussels Office of the Elcano Royal Institute, to discuss how the Indo-Pacific factors into European foreign policy and strategic thinking. Eva and Luis analyze the recently released "EU strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific," as well as the individual strategies of France, Germany, and the Netherlands, and argue that Europe cannot address the rise of China without considering the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific region. The three then dive deeper into potential cooperation between the EU, U.S., and other partners in the region like Japan, Australia, and India.

King of the Chessboard? Xi Jinping and the Future of China’s Grand Strategy Apr 12, 2021

This week, Mike is joined by Elizabeth Economy, senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution and senior fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, to explore the evolution of Xi Jinping’s leadership and China’s current foreign policy strategy. Liz argues that there is continuity between Xi’s strategy and that of his predecessors, but Xi’s vision of reforming the global governance system and his increased risk tolerance are new phenomena. As Liz and Mike unravel China’s foreign policy and its relationship with Russia, they ask if the United States could have predicted the rise of Xi Jinping and if the United States should change course in its strategy towards China.

Dead Draw or Winning Position? Reassessing U.S. China Strategy on the Chessboard Mar 15, 2021

This week, Mike is joined by Ashley Tellis, Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to re-evaluate U.S. China strategy and determine what makes a successful theory of victory. The two start by going back in time to when Ashley was working on the rise of China in the 90s, when he argued that China’s rise was not a fluke and would impact Asia dramatically in the future. Given that competition is inevitable, the United States must maintain multipolarity in Asia, create constraints on Chinese action in the region, and work with likeminded allies and partners like Japan and India. How can the United States integrate India and the QUAD into its strategy? What does success look like in five years, ten years, and beyond?

Trading Places: America, Japan and Regional Trade on the Chessboard Mar 01, 2021

This week Mike is joined by Mireya Solis, director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies, Philip Knight Chair in Japan Studies, and a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings, to discuss the regional trade architecture of the Asia-Pacific. The two start off by analyzing the geopolitical significance of RCEP and CPTPP, and what the lack of U.S. participation in both trade agreements means for U.S. trade strategy under the Biden Administration. Mireya also dives deeper into Japan’s economic strategy in Asia, and argues that Japanese leadership in the region is likely to continue given its status as the third largest economy in the world, its role as a rule-maker in the region, and its ability to fill the U.S. vacuum. How have the Asia-Pacific countries stitched the region together over the past few years, and what can the U.S. do to improve its credibility in the region?

A Game Winning Piece? The Dalai Lama and Geopolitics of Tibet Feb 08, 2021

This week, Mike is joined by Asia and human rights expert Ellen Bork, contributing editor at American Purpose, to discuss the geopolitics of Tibet and what it means for the Asia Chessboard. The two begin by discussing Tibet’s strategic significance in the region, including the influence of Tibetan Buddhism and China’s strategic approach to its “core interests.” Bork also dives deeper into Tibet’s relationships with its neighbors, like India, and the transnational impact of the next reincarnation of the Dalai Lama. How should the U.S. factor Tibet into its Asia Strategy? How can the U.S. and its allies stand up to China when it comes to human rights abuses in Tibet?

Public Opinion and the Asia Chessboard: Views from the U.S. and Abroad Jan 25, 2021

This week Mike is joined by Bruce Stokes, fellow at the German Marshall Fund, to discuss U.S. public attitudes about the world, and how the world sees the U.S. leadership role abroad, especially after January 6th. Stokes differentiates between public opinion about the United States, faith in the U.S. public, and faith in U.S ideas about democracy. How does waning U.S. soft power impact our strategy in Asia? How can the incoming administration implement a “Foreign Policy for the Middle Class” while dealing with trade and security issues in Asia?

The Great Power Gambit: U.S. and China in Southeast Asia Jan 11, 2021

This week, Mike is joined by David Shambaugh, the Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies at George Washington University, to discuss his new book, “Where Great Powers Meet: America and China in Southeast Asia.” The two start with a discussion about how U.S.-China relations have gotten to their lowest point since normalization, and how Southeast Asia has become an open field for competition. Perception matters, but Shambaugh argues that it has become out of touch with reality. Is China’s inevitable rise in the region a false narrative? Why is U.S. engagement in Southeast Asia underappreciated, and how can we increase U.S. diplomatic efforts in the region?

Journey to the Center of the Board: Geopolitical Lessons from Mongolia Dec 21, 2020

This week, Mike is joined by Ganbat Chuluunkhuu, Managing Director at RVJ Capital, as they journey to the middle of the chessboard to discuss Mongolia’s role in the Asia-Pacific region. Ganbat dives into Mongolia’s history of strategic culture, starting with the legacy of Genghis Khan, and outlines the intricacies of Mongolia’s relationships with China, Russia, and “third neighbors” like the United States. As the only democracy in Central Eurasia, Mongolia has becoming increasingly important for U.S. grand strategy and Mongolian sovereignty rests on the balance between China, Russia, and its third neighbors.

A New Game? Domestic Political Change and U.S. Strategy Dec 07, 2020

This week, Mike is joined by Tom Wright, director of the Center on the United States and Europe and a senior fellow in the Project on International Order and Strategy at the Brookings Institution, to discuss how domestic politics impacts U.S. grand strategy. The two go into detail about how both Democrats and Republicans currently view U.S. strategy in Asia, and where both parties converge and diverge when it comes to the “China Challenge.” Now that there will be a transfer of power in the White House, what does the recent 2020 U.S. election tell us about the U.S. role in the world, and in Asia specifically?

Mapping the Future of U.S. China Policy Oct 21, 2020

This week, Mike is joined by his CSIS colleagues Jude Blanchette, Bonnie Glaser, and Scott Kennedy, to discuss their recently-launched project, “Mapping the Future of U.S. China Policy.” For this project, CSIS surveyed the American public and thought leaders in the United States, Asia, and Europe to map perspectives on China policy. The discussion centers around the project’s five main takeaways on issues surrounding national security, economics and trade, and human rights. The results point to possible contours of an enduring strategy around international coalition building on the China challenge.

Doubled Rooks? The U.S.-Philippine Alliance in Historical Context Oct 05, 2020

This week, Mike is joined by Chris Capozzola, Professor of History at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, to discuss his new book on the history of U.S.-Philippines relations, Bound by War. The two discuss the importance of history for informing grand strategy, and what lessons we can learn from the 1900s, which Dr. Capozzola argues is the "original" Asian century. Dr. Capozzola starts with the strategic significance of the United States and the Philippines to one another, highlighting the geographic location of the Philippines. He goes on to explain the binational history between the two countries and how they have shaped one another. What are the strengths and weaknesses within the relationship, and how can understanding history help the United States build a platform for more strategic dialogue with the Philippines moving forward?

Knight on the Chessboard: Perspectives from Senate Armed Services Committee featuring Ranking Member Jack Reed Sep 21, 2020

This week, Mike is joined by the Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) to discuss the role of Congress in decision-making on U.S. national security policy in the Asia-Pacific. In their discussion, they look at strategic competition with China and the importance of working jointly with allies and partners, especially through exercising together. They also highlight the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a bipartisan initiative introduced by Senator Reed in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021. How can the U.S. increase its deterrence in the region? What can Congress do to signal our commitments to our allies and partners?

Caught in the Middle of the Chessboard: Southeast Asia's Response to China's Rise Aug 31, 2020

This week, Mike is joined by two CSIS colleagues who are leading thinkers on Southeast Asia in Washington: Murray Hiebert, Senior Associate of the Southeast Asia Program, and Greg Poling, Senior Fellow of the Southeast Asia Program and Director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. They focus their discussion on Murray's new book, Under Beijing's Shadow: Southeast Asia's China Challenge, which details the response of different Southeast Asian countries to China's rise and argues that countries view China both as an opportunity and a challenge. In formulating U.S. policy towards Southeast Asia, how do we deal with these countries' competing economic and security interests?

Hidden Moves: Countering Russian and Chinese Influence Activities on the Chessboard Jul 27, 2020

Russian and Chinese Interference is becoming an increasingly important part of the strategic chessboard in the Asia-Pacific. This week, Mike is joined by Amy Searight, Senior Associate for Asia at CSIS, and Heather Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe at CSIS, to discuss their new report on countering Russian and Chinese influence activities. Through looking at different case studies, Amy and Heather outline the similarities and differences between Russian and Chinese influence campaigns, and explain how they learn from one another. Finally, they give recommendations for how countries in the region can counter these activities, which are often aimed at breaking apart U.S. alliances.

Team Play: The U.S. Alliance System and the Chessboard (Pt. 2) Jul 13, 2020

In part two of Mike's discussion with Abe Denmark and Mira Rapp-Hooper, the three take a look at the importance of alliance coordination in the Indo-Pacific, the challenges U.S. alliances currently face, and how the U.S. alliance network factors into competition with China. What are the major issue areas that U.S. and allied officials are looking at today? What are the prospects for networking America's Pacific and Atlantic alliances?

Team Play: The U.S. Alliance System and the Chessboard (Pt. 1) Jun 29, 2020

Mike is joined by Abe Denmark, Director of the Asia Program at the Wilson Center, and Mira Rapp-Hooper, Senior Fellow for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss the past, present, and future of the U.S. alliance system in the Indo-Pacific. What are the major strategic decision points facing the U.S. and its allies in the Indo-Pacific? Is present friction within the alliance network emblematic of the current administration or broader, more systemic issues? Mike, Mira, and Abe frame the discussion around Mira and Abe's new books on alliances: Mira's "Shields of the Republic" and Abe's "U.S. Strategy in the Asian century."

Plan Your Move: The NDS and the Chessboard Jun 15, 2020

Mike is joined in this episode by former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development Elbridge Colby, with a special guest appearance by CSIS U.S. Alliances Project Director Patrick Buchan. Mike, Bridge, and Pat discuss the planning process for the National Defense Strategy and its impact on force posture in the Indo-Pacific. How are the interests of allies accounted for in the drafting of major planning documents like the NDS? How does the NDS envision the U.S. taking advantage of a post-INF Asia? How does the NDS differ from or resemble the Obama-era “pivot to Asia?”

Power Up: Energy and The Chessboard Jun 01, 2020

The story of grand strategy on the Asia Chessboard is a story in part about access to energy, both for consumers and producers alike. With COVID-19 delivering a major shock to the system, how are Asian producers and consumers adapting their strategies to the new reality? Has the pandemic merely exacerbated old energy-related tensions, or should observers expect new disputes to emerge? How can consumers create a sustainable post-pandemic energy mix, and how can producers generate greater access?

The Chessboard: The View from Congress May 18, 2020

In a special joint-episode, Mike is joined by Representative Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, an up-and-coming voice on Asia strategy in Congress. The two discuss the role of Congress in policymaking towards the region and the domestic politics of China policy. Who are the players on the Hill? What are the issues? How do local concerns over agricultural exports and supply chains shape debates about decoupling? How do members of Congress interact with America's Indo-Pacific allies? Be sure to check out Rep. Gallagher's podcast The NEW Look for a counterpart discussion and interview of Mike.

Hooked: Exploring Drug Prohibition and Norms in Asia with Prof. Diana Kim Apr 06, 2020

In the twentieth episode of The Asia Chessboard, Mike is joined by Georgetown Professor Diana Kim to discuss Diana's new book, Empires of Vice, a look at how colonial administrations came to ban drugs across Asian territories. How did this process affect the development of governing norms in Asia? What impacts did these models of prohibition have on contemporary illicit markets across Asia? Are norms generated on the local level or with central governments?

Coronavirus Crisis: Talking the Pandemic's Effects on Asian Geopolitics with Evan Medeiros Mar 26, 2020

With the coronavirus pandemic sweeping through the Asia Chessboard economically and geopolitically, Mike is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros of Georgetown University to discuss what the viral crisis portends for the U.S.-China relationship, America's allies in the Indo-Pacific, and the future role of Asia. Will China emerge from the crisis in a stronger position regionally and globally? How does the coronavirus impact arguments for so-called "decoupling?" What has the crisis revealed about different models of government across Asia?

Deep Freeze: The Arctic's Role on the Asia Chessboard with Heather Conley Mar 09, 2020

With climate change creating new sea routes through the Arctic circle, China is making moves to assert navigation and scientific rights in the region. Mike is joined by CSIS Senior Vice President for Europe Heather Conley to discuss China’s role in this emerging region of the Asia Chessboard. Do Russian moves in the Arctic make it more of a factor on the Asia chessboard? How do Russian and Chinese interests in the Arctic converge and diverge? What is the present level of risk for the U.S. in the Arctic, and how can it act alone and in concert with its Asian allies to shore up presence in the far north?

Talking Indonesia with Dr. Dino Djalal Feb 24, 2020

Lynchpin of ASEAN and sitting astride some of the globe’s most important sea lines of communications, Indonesia is a critical part of the Asia Chessboard. Mike is joined by former Indonesian ambassador to the U.S. Dr. Dino Djalal to discuss Indonesia’s strategic culture and relationship with the U.S. How is Indonesia managing U.S.-China strategic competition? How does the next generation of Indonesian strategic thinkers view Indonesia’s place in the region and its relationships with Indo-Pacific great powers?

Free to Move: Talking Democracy on the Asia Chessboard with Derek Mitchell and Dan Twining Feb 11, 2020

As strategic competition between the U.S. and China heats up, old Cold War-era questions on the importance of values are being asked anew: to what extent does ideology, democracy in particular, factor into U.S. foreign policy in Asia? Mike is joined by Ambassador Derek Mitchell of the National Democratic Institute and Dr. Dan Twining of the International Republican Institute to dive into the past, present, and future roles of democracy support in U.S. Asia policy. The three begin by discussing the cliched idea that the U.S. must always choose between promotion of its values and defense of its hard interests. Mike, Derek, and Dan then turn to how the U.S. should approach Asian allies whose democratic institutions are under attack domestically and from abroad. The trio conclude the discussion by examining how the U.S. might encourage its democratic allies in Asia to see how support for democratic governance benefits their own security concerns.

Exploring Abe's Role on the Chessboard with Professor Yuichi Hosoya Jan 27, 2020

Mike sits down with Keio University professor Yuichi Hosoya to discuss one of the longest-tenured players on the Asia chessboard, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Mike and Yuichi kick off the episode by discussing Yuichi’s role as both an academic and an informal adviser to the Abe government on foreign policy. The two then turn to discussing how history and foreign policy are taught in Japanese universities. The conversation then moves towards analyzing the cornerstone of Abe’s contribution to the Asia chessboard, the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). What does FOIP mean to Japan and to Abe? Is it fair to characterize FOIP as a counter-China strategy? What is ASEAN’s role in FOIP, and how should the U.S. understand FOIP’s evolution with the present thaw between Japan and China?

The Post-INF Chessboard with Tom Karako Jan 13, 2020

In the first episode of 2020, Mike is joined by Tom Karako, Senior Fellow with the CSIS International Security Program and Director of the Missile Defense Project. Mike and Tom tackle the new hard power reality facing the Asia chessboard. What will the Indo-Pacific region look like now that the U.S. is no longer bound by the INF treaty? Mike and Tom also examine the doctrinal, strategic, and political realities of deploying intermediate-range missiles. They conclude by examining how possible U.S. missile deployments may affect the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Indo-Pacific and the prospects for future arms control agreements.

The Chessboard Down Under: Talking the U.S.-Australia Alliance with Patrick Buchan Dec 20, 2019

Mike is joined in this episode by Patrick Buchan, director of the U.S. Alliances Project and Fellow for Indo-Pacific security at CSIS. Buchan is also a former official with the Australian Department of Defense, Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, and the U.S. Office of the Secretary of Defense. After discussing Pat’s unique background as an Australian seconded to the U.S. government, Mike and Pat move towards discussing one of America’s Indo-Pacific allies, Australia. What are the origins of Australian grand strategy? How does Australia’s role as a “Five Eyes” ally impact its ability to affect American planning and strategy? How do both the U.S. and Australia handle areas of divergence between their interests? Finally, Mike and Pat evaluate Australia’s recent efforts to network with other “spokes” in the U.S.-led hub and spoke alliance system in the Indo-Pacific.

Trading Pieces: A Look at Economic Statecraft in Asia with Kurt Tong Dec 02, 2019

Amid the on-again, off-again trade deal with China and roiling protests in Hong Kong, Mike is joined by Ambassador Kurt Tong, partner at The Asia Group, former Consul General in Hong Kong and Macau, and former State Department Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs. Mike and Kurt kick off the discussion with a look at Kurt's background. They also discuss how U.S. economic policy fits into a larger grand strategy picture in Asia. The conversation ends with a reflection on Kurt's tenure as Consul General in Hong Kong looking at the protests, the recent District Council elections, and the government's response.

Perfect Partners or a Perfect Storm? Discussing Korea with Victor Cha and Sue Terry Nov 18, 2019

On July 16, 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed an indictment charging Sue Mi Terry with violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act. The indictment alleges activities that took place, in part, during a period in which Ms. Terry was employed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. CSIS is not a party to this litigation and takes the allegations seriously. CSIS maintains strict policies to ensure full compliance with the Foreign Agents Registration Act and the intellectual independence of its scholarship. In light of these serious allegations, CSIS cannot verify the independence of the scholarship of this material containing the views of Ms. Terry and has therefore archived this content pending the resolution of the charges.

The Gray Zone on a Black-and-White Board: A Discussion with Kath Hicks Nov 04, 2019

Mike is joined by Dr. Kath Hicks, Henry Kissinger Chair, Senior Vice President, and Director of the International Security Program at CSIS, for a discussion of how "gray zone" tactics factor into grand strategy in Asia. In unpacking the effect of gray zone tactics on strategy, Mike and Kath define the parameters of gray zone tactics and the domains in which they are most effective. With these assumptions in mind, what will the knock-on effects of gray zone tactics be on theories of coercion, victory, and defense planning in Asia? What parts of the U.S. government have historically been most effective at adapting to gray zone competition? Mike and Kath further discuss Kath's journey through the Department of Defense and her advice for young women hoping to become defense professionals.

State of the Play: An Interview with Steve Hadley Oct 21, 2019

In this episode, Mike interviews Steve Hadley, former national security advisor and a principal of RiceHadleyGates, a strategic consulting firm. Steve shares his journey from starting out as a young lawyer with an interest in history and strategy to the senior national security position in the White House. Mike and Steve then dive deep into the debate on U.S.-China competition. Is the Washington panic on China out of step with how the rest of the country views China? How can we best encapsulate the current state of the relationship? Are China’s domestic politics or foreign policy shapeable? Download full transcript here.

Rising Conservative Players: Views of Asia Grand Strategy with Eric Sayers and Zack Cooper Oct 07, 2019

In this episode, Mike sits down with Eric Sayers, adjunct senior fellow for the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, and Zack Cooper, research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, two rising conservative Asia strategic thinkers. Building on the previous episodes on the Democrats’ Asia strategy, the three discuss the nature of the U.S. strategic competition with China, growing isolationism among some Republican thinkers, and the roles of government, values, and principles for future Republican administration’s Asia grand strategy. Download full transcript here.

Progressive Players: Part II with Kelly Magsamen and Mira Rapp-Hooper Sep 23, 2019

In part two of host Mike Green's conversation with Kelly Magsamen and Mira Rapp-Hooper, the three focus on the likely approaches a future Democratic administration would take on trade issues, defense policy, and democratic values. What elements of the Trump-era National Defense Strategy, if any, might a future Democratic president continue in their own Asia grand strategy? The group also discusses polling from the Center for American Progress, and how young progressive grand strategists can find their footing within the Asia policy community. Download full transcript here.

Progressive Players: Rising Democrats' View of Asia Grand Strategy with Kelly Magsamen and Mira Rapp-Hooper Sep 09, 2019

In part one of a two-part discussion, Mike is joined by Kelly Magsamen, vice president for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress and a former pentagon and NSC official; and Mira Rapp-Hooper, senior fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and Yale Law School China center. With the Democratic presidential primary in full swing, the three discuss the history of Democratic grand strategy in Asia, noting the prevalence of both realist and institutionalist tendencies in Democratic administrations. Stay tuned for a further discussion on the importance of trade strategy, defense issues, and democratic values in a future Democratic administration’s Asia grand strategy in part two Download full transcript here.

Grading the Game: An Interview with Dr. Kurt Campbell (Pt. 2) Aug 12, 2019

In part two of Mike and Andrew's discussion with Kurt Campbell, the group turns to the domestic implications of the Trump administration's grand strategy in Asia. How does the Trump administration's aggressive trade policy affect American farmers crucial to Trump's voter base, and how do Trump administration trade policies fit into the larger discourses on free trade? Mike and Kurt also discuss the Trump administration's departure from long held norms in Asia grand strategy. Is the focus on browbeating allies and adversaries sustainable? Will future American administrations adopt an anything-but-Trump approach? The conversation concludes with a brief examination of President Trump's summit diplomacy with North Korea. Download the full transcript here.

Grading the Game: An Interview with Dr. Kurt Campbell (Pt. 1) Jul 29, 2019

In this episode, Mike and Andrew sit down with Dr. Kurt Campbell, president and CEO of The Asia Group, co-founder of the Center for a New American Security, and former assistant Secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affairs. In part one of a two-part discussion, Mike, Kurt, and Andrew give an inside look at the establishment of the Nye Initiative, the post-Cold War drive to restructure the U.S.-Japan alliance for the present era. They also grade the Trump and Obama administrations' records against combating strategic drift. Download the full transcript here.

The History of the Game: An Interview with Will Inboden Jul 15, 2019

In this episode, Mike sits down with Will Inboden, associate professor of public policy and director of the Clements Center at the University of Texas at Austin. Will is also a former senior NSC official for strategic planning. Mike and Will unpack popular misconceptions about the application of history to grand strategy and discuss the critical place of values in American foreign policy. They also preview Will’s forthcoming book on the Reagan administration. Download the full transcript here.

The Grandmaster: An Interview with Ambassador Richard Armitage Jul 01, 2019

In this episode, Mike and Andrew interview a true grandmaster of the Asia chessboard: Ambassador Richard Armitage. Ambassador Armitage has seen it all, from riverine patrols with the “brown-water navy” in Vietnam to hard-fought bureaucratic battles as Deputy Secretary of State. Andrew and Mike discuss Ambassador Armitage’s background in Asia. They grade the Trump administration’s ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy.” Plus, they forecast possible black swans shadowing the Asia chessboard. (And Ambassador Armitage’s all-time bench press record is revealed.) Download full transcript here.

The Opening Move with Mike Green Jun 17, 2019

Andrew Schwartz interviews the host, Dr. Mike Green, senior vice president for Asia at CSIS, director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University, and former senior director for Asia on George W. Bush’s national security council. Andrew explores Dr. Green’s career, examining how Dr. Green originally became interested in the study of grand strategy and how he landed on Asia as his focus. Dr. Green and Andrew further consider the questions that will frame The Asia Chessboard going forward: is grand strategy possible in the United States today? How do leaders execute strategy in the midst of crises? Where is U.S. strategy towards the region heading? Download full transcript here.

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