Gonzo Finance!
Hugh Hendry is an Award Winning Hedge Fund Manager, Market Commentator, Thought Leader, St Barts Real Estate Investor & Surfer.
Full episodes are available at https://www.patreon.com/HughHendry and https://hughhendry.substack.com
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Gonzo Finance!
Full episodes are available at https://www.patreon.com/HughHendry and https://hughhendry.substack.com
Copyright: © 2023 The Acid Capitalist podcast
Welcome to a Christmas like no other, where I wrestle with the absurdities of modern finance and the strange beauty of human existence. From the quiet shores of St. Bart's, and it’s a quiet one for sure, Christmas morning and i’m about to post this to you all. There’s a cool macro economic essay in there somewhere. I wanted to get something, anything out there for this holiday season; I hope you can forgive the heavy breathing…
This is a meditation on what it means to live in a world where financial systems are warped mirrors of reality. Why does the U.S. economy continue to thrive against the odds? What does it mean when a stock doubles in a month, only to face existential doubt the next? Are we all, prisoners of a system that was never truly rational to begin with?
I reflect on moments from my own career, like the time I wagered against the optimism of Nokia in 1999 or found myself apologizing to a Carphone Warehouse magnate, my words echoing through the Mayfair offices as traders placed bets on how many times I’d say “sorry.”
But this episode is mostly about life. About finding meaning in the noise, about letting go of the need for answers, and embracing the simple act of questioning.
So, as 2024 fades into memory, join me in this moment of quiet reflection. Let’s step away from the screens, the data, the endless rush to predict the unpredictable. Let’s sit with the questions, about markets, about ourselves, and see what they reveal.
Because, as I sit here on a stunning Christmas day, staring at the endless blue of the Caribbean Sea, I'm reminded, that you and me, we don't have all the answers. But we've got really good questions. What happens when the Chinese stop buying US risk capital? Does the global stock market music stop?
These are THE questions for today. But they're questions worth holding onto as we head into the new year. Answers that will reveal themselves when they're good and damned ready to reveal.
So, Good luck, my brothers and sisters.
The spirituality of curiosity.
I leave it for you to decide.
Hugh
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Welcome to another episode of the Acid Capitalist, coming to you from the sun-drenched shores of St. Barts in the French Caribbean. This week, we’re diving headfirst into market mayhem, absurd tales, and the kind of insights you can only find here.
Palm trees. Santa Claus. Sleigh bells. An unlikely combination, yet somehow it works. St. Barts this time of year is pure energy: the priciest destination on the planet, unpredictable weather, and panicked yacht-dwellers caught in sudden downpours. It’s all a fitting metaphor for the markets, seemingly perfect, yet always poised for chaos.
Tesla’s doubled since the election. Bitcoin keeps grabbing headlines, and stocks were closing the year with a stunning 27% gain. It’s a world where expectations are sky-high, but danger lurks. I dive into the question: are we at the peak, or is there more room to run? And could Bitcoin really hit a million bucks? If you’ve been here since 2013, you know I’ve been calling this move for years.
An LA Tale: Karate Kicks and Markets
Sometimes, the markets behave like an LA socialite: confident, demanding, and completely unpredictable. I share a personal story from a glamorous night in West Hollywood. Picture this: a spoiled child, an audacious woman in a mini skirt, and a thigh-high karate kick that stopped just short of my chest. The parallels to the markets are uncanny: strutting in confidence one moment, delivering a shocking blow the next.
The Seduction of Now
The biggest trap in investing? Being consumed by the present. I explore the seductive mistress that is “now” and why it blinds us to the future. Looking back at my own missteps during 2008, I reflect on the importance of stepping back and imagining where markets might be 18 months down the line. Because the present? It’s rarely the full story.
A Tipping Point
China is wrestling with deflation and the consequences of years of aggressive policies. Their stock index is stuck at levels from two decades ago, and the yuan teeters on the brink of devaluation. Could this be the tipping point for a global economic reset? I explore what a weaker yuan might mean for global consumption, tariffs, and U.S. consumers. Spoiler: it’s not a rosy picture.
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This week, a journey through the bonkers world of financial markets, absurd cultural phenomena, and personal reflections from the splendid shores of St. Barts.
A Brief Memoir Moment
I share a childhood anecdote about an imaginary kangaroo in my parents’ wardrobe, a metaphor for life's absurdities and the early seeds of my contrarian mindset. From tales of youthful rebellion to the consequences of throwing stones at buses, I paint a vivid picture of life lessons learned the hard way and before the internet..
The Week in Markets
I dive into the paradox of December markets:
- Winners Ride High: Stocks like Nvidia continue their wild run, even as tech giants like Apple remain geopolitical pawns in the US-China game, the market cocks-a-snoop: Warren Who?
- The Madness of MicroStrategy: Michael Saylor's strategy of leveraging meme stock madness to buy Bitcoin? Genius or depravity? I call it capitalism at its most unhinged.
- Retail Phenomena: Ulta Beauty’s rise as the "crown jewel of vanity" and Estée Lauder's fall from grace become metaphors for the insecurity-driven consumer economy and a stock market seeking unattainable perfection.
Macro Musings
I connect the dots between today’s financial euphoria and the late 1920s:
- Foreign capital is flooding into US markets, fueling asset inflation and American exceptionalism.
- AI dominance, bolstered by the US tech ecosystem, is likened to the golden age of the 1920s.
- I critique the global disarray, from Europe’s leaderless states to China’s economic skids, and I hail America’s continued structural advantage.
Cultural Highlights
From Charles Aznavour’s La Bohème to Nekfeu’s Plume, I try weave some French musical genius into my narrative, underscoring the importance of art and reflection amidst financial madness.
Closing Thoughts
So keep tuning in for more acid insights, market musings, and the occasional existential riff.
Because, together, unified, we’ve got the power.
Hugh
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A Life in Rebellion
You should listen to the Acid Capitalist Podcast.
It's my raw and revealing true story. It's about rebellion. The quiet, existential battle against the grey, the dull, soul-crushing monotony that sneaks into the cracks of life. This isn’t just my story, it’s the story of the markets, a cosmic dance between chaos and order, failure and transcendence.
The Rebel’s Genesis
I grew up in Glasgow, a city painted in every shade of grey. Not just the skies -though they did their part - but a deeper, existential grey. It seeps into your bones, wraps around your dreams like damp wool, and whispers, "This is all there is." But the thing about despair is that, at its nadir, it can break you or awaken you. For me, it cracked open a door, and in walked Mr. Rebel, my lifelong companion.
Markets as Rebellion
Markets are alive, messy, and paradoxical. You're maybe subscribing to investment trading videos. They're a con peddled by folks who've never managed money professionally. They’re shills. Markets are not built on fundamentals or formulas but on sentiment, much like the neurotransmitters in your brain. The yin and yang of your nervous system, that mirrors the speculative highs and lows of trading. To navigate them is to ride the wave of human emotion, teetering on the edge of reason. You need to hear my story.
The Void and the Dopamine Trap
My rebellion wasn’t about making money, though I did plenty of that. It was about proving to the grey world that I’d escaped. Like a Zen koan, the markets posed unanswerable questions: What is the sound of one hand clapping? Why do bubbles burst? What’s next?
I chased answers, built houses with swimming pools and tennis courts, and even tried to buy happiness on a tropical island. But the grey always seeped back in. It took me years to realize that heaven isn’t a place on Earth. It’s a state of mind, a rebellion against the self.
Zen and the Art of Acid Capitalism
In Zen, they speak of the gateless gate, the barriers we construct in our minds that don’t truly exist. The markets are full of these gates: self-imposed limitations, conventional wisdom, and the fear of uncertainty. To pass through them, you need to embrace paradox, chaos, and, yes, a little bit of
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I was born in Glasgow, a city carved by raw grit and humor, think of Sir Alex Ferguson and Billy Connolly. Not far from there, I began my career in Edinburgh, a mere fifty miles geographically, but an infinite leap in atmosphere. Imagine stepping into an aristocratic investment house, its rooms brimming with the ghosts of ambition and refinement. Suddenly finding yourself in the domain of tall men in their dead fathers' ill-fitting trousers. Aristocrats in suits hemmed just above their ankles, like ghosts of a forgotten mod era.
My first posting? The Japanese department, September 1990, nine months after the Nikkei’s spectacular peak at 40,000. I was young, unseasoned, but one thing I knew for sure: Japanese stocks were d-e-f-i-n-i-t-e-l-y not going back up anytime soon. Check the audio tape…
This week's show isn't about stock indices or investment attire. No, it’s about a curious creature, the tunicate. You see, the tunicate begins its life as a free-swimming entity, darting about the ocean with purpose and curiosity. It seeks, it explores, its a happy soul. And then, it finds its chosen spot, burrows its head into the seafloor, and, get this, it eats its own brain. Why? Because it no longer needs it. The tunicate’s life becomes rooted, passive, and fixed, content to filter nutrients from the passing current. A lobotomized existence, blissfully detached from the need for thought or movement.
It got me thinking. Is this not the state of many investors today? Consider the lobotomized meme stockholder, basking in the unthinking glow of rising markets. They’ve eaten their metaphorical brains, trading curiosity and action for the comfort of passive returns. They’re Holding On for Dear Life, foolish squirts I call them.
Music or no music? You tell me. And are you getting the giggles when I get all meditative...
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Macro Meditation #2
Wow. Did you enjoy the Complexity episode? I went full zen on you. Deep breathing, tapping into the god-like forces within. Sounds crazy, right? Except it’s not. You are the god. The universe doesn’t revolve around some external queen bee or king. Nope, it’s you. But modern society? It’s been locking that realization away for centuries, creating gatekeepers, the constant buzz of traffic on the mental highway that runs through your mind. The incessant voices that keep you hustling, second-guessing, never questioning the system.
That’s why I lean into serendipity and synchronicity. I’ve found creative rebirth through breathing, through breaking on through to the other side. It’s about reconnecting to the magic kingdom within. Forget the false gods of Wall Street, religion or the carnival of politics. I don’t care who won the election, both sides are just the hapless lions in The Wizard of Oz, prowling around, but without the courage to challenge the status quo.
Speaking of which, let’s talk markets. Did you know the S&P has gone up nearly 60-fold since 1980? Fortunes have been made by the money changers, the witches of the east, Wall Street Barrons. Asset prices have soared on the back of globally suppressed labour costs and perpetually low rates. But for the average Joe? Stagnation. Real wages flatlined decades ago, communities frayed. And yet, we cheer every tick higher on the stock index, oblivious to the cost.
I want you to be courageous my curious mind warriors. To have the kind of courage that questions, that disrupts. The kind of courage you find when you strip away the noise, quiet the mind, and breathe deeply.
So, as I close out this meditation, let me remind you: it’s okay to be a little crazy. Embrace the complexity. Be curious. Be bold. And most importantly, keep being acid capitalists.
Hugh
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Macro Meditation #2
Wow. Did you enjoy the Complexity episode? I went full zen on you. Deep breathing, tapping into the god-like forces within. Sounds crazy, right? Except it’s not. You are the god. The universe doesn’t revolve around some external queen bee or king. Nope, it’s you. But modern society? It’s been locking that realization away for centuries, creating gatekeepers, the constant buzz of traffic on the mental highway that runs through your mind. The incessant voices that keep you hustling, second-guessing, never questioning the system.
That’s why I lean into serendipity and synchronicity. I’ve found creative rebirth through breathing, through breaking on through to the other side. It’s about reconnecting to the magic kingdom within. Forget the false gods of Wall Street, religion or the carnival of politics. I don’t care who won the election, both sides are just the hapless lions in The Wizard of Oz, prowling around, but without the courage to challenge the status quo.
Speaking of which, let’s talk markets. Did you know the S&P has gone up nearly 60-fold since 1980? Fortunes have been made by the money changers, the witches of the east, Wall Street Barrons. Asset prices have soared on the back of globally suppressed labour costs and perpetually low rates. But for the average Joe? Stagnation. Real wages flatlined decades ago, communities frayed. And yet, we cheer every tick higher on the stock index, oblivious to the cost.
I want you to be courageous my curious mind warriors. To have the kind of courage that questions, that disrupts. The kind of courage you find when you strip away the noise, quiet the mind, and breathe deeply.
So, as I close out this meditation, let me remind you: it’s okay to be a little crazy. Embrace the complexity. Be curious. Be bold. And most importantly, keep being acid capitalists.
Hugh
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Why Acid Meditation Matters for Investors: Embracing Complexity and the Chaos Within
Dear friends
I’m launching a meditation series that, I admit, may seem far afield from my usual punk-macroeconomic analysis. But this is no gimmick. It’s an exploration of how mastering the inner world of your mind can make you a better investor and a more resilient human being.
Why It’s Worth Your Attention
You might be asking, “Why should I, a seasoned or aspiring investor, care about meditation?” Here’s the brutal truth: Most investors lose money not because of bad strategies, but because they can’t manage their own emotions. Fear and greed are more dangerous than any market downturn. Acid Meditation is my answer to that problem. It’s about developing the mental architecture to withstand volatility, to spot and accept serendipity, and to harness the power of the unknown.
I’ve taken risks all my life. I know what it feels like to be on the edge, both financially and existentially. This meditation series is a distillation of that experience: a guide for how I’ve sought to understand not just the market but the deeper truths that govern my existence.
So, if you’re ready to challenge yourself, to engage with complexity rather than flee from it, and to elevate your thinking in a world that demands constant adaptation, then join me. Acid Meditation isn’t just for seekers of peace; it’s for warriors of the mind, those who dare to think differently and profit from it.
Let’s explore the edge together.
Hugh
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Mike Lynch, a man who faced down the giant of US Justice, out maneuvered the legal behemoths, took on the law and emerged victorious—only to be taken by the cold, capricious hand of Mother Nature. Imagine it: overcoming insurmountable odds, the weight of the world against you, and yet, you rise. Then, in a cruel twist, you're snuffed out by the very seas that should’ve carried you home on a joyous victory lap of vindication.
And the loss of his number two, also acquitted by the US courts, on the very same day? That smacks of something truly out of whack—a malevolent force, a Keyser Söze-like figure, flexing its vindictive contempt. The unruly seas didn’t just take six lives; they dragged HP's corporate secrets to the seabed, locked away in the depths, perhaps forever.
Was it mere misfortune, or was there something more sinister at play? Watch this video, and together we’ll explore what might just be the greatest unfinished story of the 21st century. The seas may have claimed their due, but the truth is still out there, waiting to surface. R.I.P. Mike Lynch.
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Step into the dim glow of our dive bar of financial musings in the humid, Caribbean night air, where the ACID Capitalist, Hugh Hendry, the sardonic Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund), and the ever-perceptive Tracy Shuchart (@chigrl) huddle over a table of half-empty glasses and half-baked theories. This is a raw, unfiltered exploration into the underbelly of macroeconomics.
We wander through the shadowy corridors of USD fluctuations, peer into the abyss of interest rate procrastinations, and mull over the geopolitical chess moves of giants like the US, Japan, and China. The conversation flows like a blues riff, touching on the gritty realities of commodities and financial trends.
Expect contrarian views and insights that cut through the noise, all served with a side of existential reflection. This is more than a podcast; it’s a night at the bar with the sharpest minds in finance, pondering the chaos and beauty of the global market. Grab a drink, pull up a chair, and join us for a conversation that’s as unpredictable as it is enlightening.
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Some folks possess the philosophers stone. Me? I just have this fabulous oversized sofa at Maison Blanc Bleu, and as this glorious weekend unfolds, I'm rolling out my life creed.
Journeys morph and twist. I embarked on an epic voyage from a haunting housing project to a chouette Caribbean island. Sacrifices were made, asses were kissed, and I, a prodigious child of circumstance, sucked the ring from every hand. But that chapter has concluded. I've arrived.
And now, it's time to kick back and embrace The Fool's Journey—the card without a number, the path that few dare tread. I'm ready to embrace it, to open my arms wide to the chaos of existence. For years, I was a closed, focused vessel, unable to receive the love that so many offered. But now, the pipes are unclogged, the channels are clear, and I'm finally ready to let it all in.
So forgive me if it seems like a train wreck from the outside, but let me declare it loud and clear: I'm having the time of my damn life. How many of us can honestly say that?
But baby, just don’t be sick on my sofa…
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Strap in for a wild ride through the cannabis revolution with Peter Barsoom, the mastermind behind 1906, where ancient botanicals meet modern science in a dazzling maze of Dadaist innovation. In this episode, Peter takes us behind the scenes of crafting cannabis products that aren't just about getting high—they're about elevating your well-being. From the gritty details of pioneering the industry's first fast-acting edibles to redefining everyday wellness, Peter shares how his Wall Street savvy catapulted 1906 into the spotlight of the green rush.
Tune in as The ACID Capitalist lights up on some yellow GENIUS pills and gains perspective on the burgeoning world of bespoke cannabis with insights only a veteran like Peter could offer. It's not just a podcast; it's a gateway to the new age of enlightened Investment Dadaism.
And there’s more…The ACID Capitalist and 1906 are collaborating and offering a $5 discount off any tin purchased with the code ACIDCAPITALIST. We’re not just rejecting traditional investment conventions, we’re gone challenge the established norms of risk markets.
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Welcome to a journey into the gold markets on today’s podcast, where I, alongside a valued member from the John Galt community, dive deep into the glittering realms of gold trading. For the next 50 minutes, we’re going to tackle some burning questions, slicing through the noise with sharp insights and fearless forecasts.
Whether you're a battle-hardened trader or a curious onlooker ready to dip your toes into the gold rush, strap in. We're set to explore everything from market dynamics to cunning trading strategies, ensuring you walk away with a treasure trove of knowledge. Let the gold games begin! And dear John Galts, line-up, let’s do more…
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Step off Wall Street's grimy sidewalks and plunge into the wilderness with the ACID Capitalist as your guide on another mind-bending journey. We've connected with Tom Morgan, a standout from this year's Ira Sohn conference and a fellow traveler lost in the financial wilds. Tom tells me that it's fantastic being telepathic, that he’s read my mind, that things are really drastic…
With Tom as our wandering star, we explore the possibilities of finance's future, navigating the abstract without seeking anything specific. We're the shamans of finance, venturing into risk, creativity, and the art of foresight, our vision blurred by last night's tequila.
We share stories of profound revelations and the rare, gonzo path less traveled, challenging the monotony of corporate life. This journey is not just another finance podcast; it's an exploration of curiosity's core.
We delve into the brain's right hemisphere, we’re out there on the perpendicular, not searching for anything in particular, maybe seeking life's meaning, syncing with Jung's synchronicity, and pondering the ego's demise. Is our spiritual quest merely a competitive climb, an infinite loop ?
Here's the paradox: As AI challenges the left hemisphere's relevance, might the shamans, the daring outsiders, become finance's new deities ?
Dare to listen and let your mind wander the fringes of finance's future.
Also, be sure to watch Tom's 5 minutes of wisdom: https://x.com/tomowenmorgan/status/1775957154521821593
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Dive into the vaults with the ACID Capitalist, as I resurrect a mentoring session from July '23, "The Path to Serfdom". The young Padawan and I dissect the how and why of the financial depression gripping the majority, questioning the orthodoxies that pin us down in a world seemingly designed by and for the elite.
This isn't a chat; it's a rebel yell, seeking to redefine what we accept as economic 'normalcy'. Gear up for a discursive journey through the financial wilderness, where no question is too sacred, no theory too outlandish. We don’t like slavery, we won’t beg but with a rebel yell, we’ll take more, more, more.
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Welcome back, my enlightened audience, to another episode of Acid Therapy, where yours truly, The Acid Capitalist, delves once more into the mental maelstrom with Denise Shull's guidance.
This episode serves as a serenade to the chaos of existence, exploring a myriad of topics from the rollercoaster of my personal life to the philosophical musings that keep the midnight oil burning. Denise skillfully prods and pokes at the fabric of my psyche, unraveling threads of my past, my dance with financial peril, and my unwavering quest to find meaning in the madness. From the stress of nearing completion on a villa project to childhood recollections shaping my adult anxieties, each moment leads us closer to unraveling the enigma of The Acid Capitalist.
So, brace for impact; this one cuts deep.
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Ladies and gentlemen, daredevils of the financial markets, connoisseurs of the unconventional, welcome back to what I've cheekily dubbed "Acid Therapy" with the indomitable Denise Shull. If you thought our first Tango-in-Paris was a trip down the rabbit hole, brace yourselves for a sequel that delves deeper into the psyche of trading, investing, and the emotional rollercoaster that accompanies the pursuit of pecuniary success.
In this episode, we peel back the layers of the market's psyche with Denise; tackle the taboo, the unspoken truth that emotion is not just a part of decision-making; it is the cornerstone. Forget the mantra of the suits, that its cold, calculated logic. Nah, that's subterfuge, throwing you off the money trail. I'm here to tell you that to navigate the tumultuous seas of the market, you need to embrace the storm within.
Denise challenges the notion that emotion and reason are at odds. Instead, she proposes that they are the yin and yang of successful trading. We explore the idea that your gut feeling isn't just old pizza acting up – it's your brain's way of pattern recognition, an unconscious intuition honed by experience and expertise. We dive into the controversial, discuss how the very emotions we're told to suppress could be the compass guiding us through the market's treacherous terrain.
We also confront the uncomfortable, admitting that sometimes, despite our best analysis and emotional intuition, the market can still blindside us. It's a humbling reminder that we're playing a game with no guarantees, only educated gambles. It's absolutely orgasmic.
And for those of you who are as intrigued by these conversations as I am, I invite you to join the Acid Capitalist Tribe on Patreon. There, you'll get the full-length versions of all my podcasts, including this eye-opening dialogue with Denise, and other exclusive content that's too hot for the mainstream. Dive into the deep end with us, subscribe to me on Patreon to listen to the full episode.
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Switching it up with a throwback from the archives. About a year ago, I had a series of 3 interviews with Denise Shull. She's a certified pro, cut from the same cloth as Wendy from Billions – you know, that HBO show about Bobby Axelrod, the hedge fund big shot. Denise even took a swing at the show's creators, claiming they owed her royalties for using her likeness in Wendy's character. She lost that one. Tough cookie, but sharp as hell.
I hesitated about putting this out. It's not your usual investment talk, but maybe it's got something to say about our crazy world. Beyond that, it gets real personal. Last year was a deep dive into hurt for me, going through a separation with my life partner. Yeah, I'm the guy who married his first date. Who does that, right? Anyway, I've had time to think, and one thing missing from public life is laying it all out there. I felt the sharp pain that the chaos life sometimes throws at us. Figured maybe it's better out in the open.
Most times, I'm cruising around playing the king-of-St-Barts, but reality is a whole lot more complex. To understand me better, I wanted to share. 'Cause we're all on this journey, and you've got to believe that open talks and exchanges are what helps us along the way. Anyway, enough rambling. Here's the first episode, just for you.
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In this week's episode Nick Searle the from ADP podcast interviews Hugh Hendry.
Nick and Hugh talk through Hugh’s thoughts on the outlook for 2024 and go on a macro Acid Capitalist trip along the way.
They discuss when will the Fed cut interest rates, the 1970s and Hugh's white paper on the parallels between the monetary landscape and the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, suggesting that attempts by central banks to control economic temperature may lead to unintended consequences. They also cover Hugh’s view of Japan, Greyscale, Bitcoin and the price of Gold. Hugh also discusses arguing with his 'AI version of himself'.
Nick's book suggestion is The Creative Act by Rick Rubin
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Here is a sneak peak from my 38 minute full video that I dorpped on my Patreon last week.
To get exclusive access to all of my content as soon as it´s released, sign up today and I´ll see you in there.
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Here is a behind the scenes interview I gave at the Bitcoin conference in Amsterdam with Isabella from Bitcoin Magazine.
I've dropped a couple of short videos from this interview, but here you can enjoy the full audio.
In this interview we discuss why I don't believe Bitcoin is going to fix every issue the current system has, as well as so much more.
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This video was originally released on my Patreon. To get exclusive access to all of my content as soon as it´s released, sign up today and I´ll see you in there.
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
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I randomly managed to watch a recent interview on Bloomberg with a talking head from Invesco.
I found it priceless. The nonsense that's spoken by the biggest investors. Words, endless words, jargon
A science of profanities.
But hat tip to the Bloomberg anchor, Tom Keane, for asking the most pertinent question,
"Aren't you just making this up as you go along ?"
A lot of the interview discusses investment strategy at the fabled end of the cycle. What cycle you might ask. The rates cycle ? The Fed seems to have indicated that hikes are ending.
Will the US economic cycle end ? It continues to surprise on the upside but surely its days are numbered ? There's a discussion about the equity risk premium. A means of considering the relative attraction of stocks versus bonds. Everyone is against the Treasury market currently. But the equity risk premium is urging caution on equities.
We discuss.
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Brent, George, Hugh and Jeff sit down to discuss FX and the Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan devaluation, monetary policy, Fed actions and the yield curve.
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The Approaching Macro Shock Wave with Skanda Amarnath (public preview)
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Inflation Collision Course with Bob Elliot (Preview)
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Acid Capitalist meets Real Vision Mashup with Andreas Steno
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PREVIEW: Anarchists at the Fed with Steve Hanke
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Venturing Across the Abyss: The Bridge of Hope w/ George Magnus
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UNLOCKED: The Future of Money with AllinCrypto
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A LIVE recording of a Different Perspective with host Nick Searle, Hugh Hendry and Barry Norris
Listen to last week’s live recording of A Different Perspective podcast, featuring host Nick Searle with guests, macro trading legends Hugh Hendry and Barry Norris. This episode was recorded in front of a live audience at St Ethelburga’s in the City of London on 21st June.
Nick, Hugh and Barry discussed the rate rise dilemma faced by the FED and Bank of England and what needs to break, are we over peak ESG and what is the future for active fund management.
Hugh Hendry is a hedge fund manager and podcast host. Hugh was previously at Baillie Gifford and Odey Asset Management, and his Eclectica macro hedge fund was famously up 50% in 2003 and up 50% in the month of October in 2008, earning him a reputation as a contrarian investor.
Barry Norris is the Founder of Argonaut Capital, an equity fund management company based in London. Barry is the Fund Manager of the Argonaut Absolute Return Fund, a leading equity long/short fund, managed using contrarian top-down macro views and a bottom-up “earnings surprise” stock-picking process. He also writes the widely followed “Argonautica” blog and creates Argonaut’s distinct “Stockumentary” videos.
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Hugh’s adventure in the mountains continues…hold on to your hats.
00:00:00 - Asian Crisis
00:08:10 - The value of money
00:24:03 - Taiwan devaluation
00:51:17 - Hidden money
00:63:04 - US and Global Savings
00:70:01 - Reservations about reserves
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Judas and the Resurrection of TLT w/ Josh Answers
Hello to the Trading Fraternity! Welcome to the tribe...
00:00:00 - This baby is going to blow!
00:02:30 - Josh Answers
00:03:21 - Unorthodox
00:09:10 - Prejudice
00:14:00 - This isn’t working...
00:17:06 - Total Bullshit
00:24:30 - Stick it to the man
00:33:50 - Turning Japanese
00:47:30 - Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
00:53:01 - Read the bible
01:13:00 - Who is next?
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🎧 ...
Hugh and Professor Richard A. Werner go toe to toe...
00:00:00 - Bank Run
00:03:01 - Plumbing problems
00:08:03 - Crypto Crash
00:11:59 - The Grapes of Wrath
00:18:48 - Forbidden words
00:20:36 - Throwing good money after bad
00:23:38 - 70s Redux?
00:25:49 - Agree to disagree
00:26:24 - Petrodollar?
00:32:26 - Until next time…
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🎵 Theme Song: Starspeed by MILANO
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🎧 ...
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🎧 ...
He’s back…our thanks to Nick Searle (@searley1 @searley2) and the team at Zeus Capital (@zeuscapital) for their collaboration on this week's episode.
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🎧 ...
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🎧 ...
The Mother of All Bull Markets in Treasuries with Alex Gurevich
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00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:25 - What Alex is all about…
00:03:33 - Inside the mind
00:09:40 - Permanent Portfolio
00:18:11 - Architects of capital
00:23:42 - The journey
00:28:00 - WTF
00:32:01 - We’re trending
00:40:12 - Bonding
00:43:49 - Pull your hair out
00:48:22 - Oil
00:52:10 - Golden future
56:58:00 - Squatters paradise
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🎧 ...
S&P to 5,000?!
Will markets hit 5,000 or is Zed Dead, baby? Find out on this week’s episode with guest George M. Robertson.
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00:00:00 - Titillation of the mind
00:08:24 - Danger zone
00:11:20 - Split it open
00:19:40 - Naturally
00:35:09 - Money, money, money
00:41:00 - Fed Chair Interview
00:44:15 - Is Zed Dead?
00:47:01 - MMT
00:52:20 - Running in place?
01:00:00 - Rustic Idea
01:11:00 - Euro$$$
01:18:22 - Always and everywhere
01:26:00 - Running with the pack
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🎧 ...
Mark B. Spiegel @StanphylCap joins the Acid Capitalist for the conversation you’ve all been waiting for...DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME!
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00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:41 - Ambivalence
00:07:00 - the edge?
00:10:30 - Tesla tales
00:13:22 - Fundamentally flawed?
00:25:10 - Narrative v Reality
00:30:33 - The Bull Case
00:33:54 - The trend is your friend
00:39:53 - Chart Madness
00:46:51 - Long value
00:57:62 - Seeing tomorrow
01:00:00 - Gold, gold you’re making me old
01:09:00 - About Mark @StanphylCap
01:10:00 - Lessons
01:14:00 - DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME
01:22:32 - Risk v Reward
01:26:00 - Portfolio ideas
01:29:12 - Cut your head off!
01:32:00 - Be humble and flexible
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🎧 ...
Worlds collide as Hedgeye Nation meets the tribe of Acid Capitalism.
00:00:00 - Naked with Miss Universe
00:02:10 - Zoolander meets Soros
00:09:10 - TLTing @ windmills
00:11:07 - Goldeneye
00:13:30 - FED operation break shit
00:19:48 - I’m with stupid
00:26:30 - Anything but routine
00:38:00 - You’re fired!
00:46:00 - Risky business
00:51:02 - Turning Japanese
00:55:00 - Raccoons & Rubbish
***FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY***
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🎧 ...
Hugh Hendry's Christmas special is the gift that keeps on giving! Get ready for a festive feast of financial insights and festive cheer as Sir Tom Roderick makes his triumphant return.
00:00:00 - Looking good Billy Ray!
00:01:15 - Sir Tom
00:03:45 - Are we going to be OK?
00:11:15 - Big supposition
00:19:12 - A new year beckons
00:36:10 - I DEMAND
00:42:00 - Frisky Futures
00:50:11 - Collateral Damage
00:56:54 - Getting Real
01:00:00 - Crypto Collateral
01:06:00 - Screaming danger
01:09:00 - Charting Course
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🎧 ...
Sit down, have a glass of wine and listen to Hugh Hendry and the colourful Martin Armstrong get perpendicular and discuss the here and now...
00:00:00 - Life in the fast lane
00:01:30 - The Dismal Science
00:06:20 - NO-ONE WANTS TO TALK MONEY
00:20:40 - Let’s play a game
00:35:20 - Thatcher & Trump
00:44:00 - Tell me what to do Marty
01:04:00 - The OG
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🎧 ...
The epic conclusion of our two part journey behind the scenes with Kylie Davies and Three Arrows Capital...THE CRASH!
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🎧 ...
The Collapse of Three Arrows Capital: Part I with Kyle Davies
This week we have a fallen angel or maybe that should be a broken arrow? Kyle Davies will forever be associated with flying too high and crashing to zero in the crypto catastrophe of 2022. He wanted it all and he wanted more. This is the story of yet another credit bubble that elevated Mice and eviscerated Men until lenders simply begged you to take their money. And Kyle was the whale. He had the audacity to pass himself off as a hedge fund. He levered up to 4 yards. He was the recipient of all that newly minted credit and boy he sprayed money everywhere Hell crypto was going to the moon This is a story of audacity and breathtaking incompetence when you break money you break mens minds Many will judge the man, I just think it’s a fascinating story of myth and mischief, so pull up a chair and tune in...
***THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE!!***
00:00:00 - Dead Bodies
00:01:00 - Origin Story
00:11:27 - No down months
00:14:00 - VAR?
00:18:30 - "Trading should be easy"
00:23:17 - ICO Craze
00:30:10 - Lindy Man Long
00:32:00 - Razor Sharp
00:35:38 - The COVID Dump
00:37:14 - All in?
00:40:00 - Grayscale
00:46:15 - The smart thing to do
00:49:20 - A challange
00:53:00 - Leverage
01:00:00 - To be continued...
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🎧 ...
Hugh sits down with living legend, Lacy Hunt, PhD - Executive Vice President of Hoisington Investment Management. Will they achieve escape velocity?
00:00:00 - LEGENDS
00:02:02 - What is money?
00:08:15 - Velocity
00:23:23 - ODL
00:30:16 - 100 years of out of date
00:47:00 - Policy failures and Euro$
00:56:46 - End this depression!
01:00:00 - Bonds and Buddhism
01:04:00 - Learning to listen
01:11:00 - An almighty downturn!
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🎧 ...
Is this the end? Featuring special guest Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy CIO DoubleLine.
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00:00:00 - Alchemy
00:00:54 - Hello Hugh
00:01:40 - The Sherman Show
00:02:50 - $$$$$100 yard football field
00:05:10 - Only one Jeff
00:14:20 - Read Jane Austen
00:22:48 - What does it take?!
00:31:22 - Mirror mirror on the wall
00:36:25 - I want to lick the honey
00:42:24 - The virtue of experience
00:49:49 - The impermanence of life
00:59:02 - the end?
01:06:50 - The $ has lost sovereignty
01:14:00 - Against the gods
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🎧 ...
Ask me anything!
Comment on YouTube and I'll do my best to answer as many questions as I can.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE!!
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:40 - AMA
00:02:52 - Football
00:03:10 - $$$
00:04:20 - Japan
00:07:21 - Gold
00:09:09 - THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
00:10:05 - Is technical analysis real?
00:12:30 - Are you a trend follower?
00:16:40 - Favourite chart indicators?
00:21:15 - Do value and valuations matter?
00:24:17 - If there is no trend is there still a trade?
00:28:15 - Name five people who don't understand money
00:38:16 - Is the crypto crash a systemic problem?
00:43:36 - Favourite band?
00:45:45 - Why do you say Jim Rodgers hates you?
00:51:28 - Consequences of the dollar wrecking ball?
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🎧 ...
Hugh live in Boston, speaking at the Fall 2022 STANSBERRY CONFERENCE & ALLIANCE MEETING.
00:00:00 - Special edition
00:03:00 - What is inflation?
00:06:00 - 3 types of money
00:12:02 - The repo man
00:19:04 - Check the record
00:24:16 - How the world works
00:30:03 - Money & Sex
00:36:10 - Q&A
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🎧 ...
Matthew C. Klein (@M_C_Klein) Founder of THE OVERSHOOT co-author of TRADE WARS ARE CLASS WARS joins the Acid Capitalist for a tour de force discussion you won't hear anywhere else.
00:00:00 - Sick Sweeney
00:02:27 - An abundance of anxiety
00:13:47 - Les Misérables
00:40:00 - Trade Wars are Class Wars
00:57:03 - Reorganizing the world
01:05:00 - Aesop's Fables
01:14:20 - The great flaw
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🎧 ...
Sir Tom Roderick (@ToStRo) and the Acid Capitalist go head to head for the showdown of the season.
🚨🚨🚨GIVEAWAY: Get a free Acid Cap by liking and commenting on this YouTube video. INSTRUCTIONS: Like and comment on this video. If the video reaches 1k likes and 500 comments within 28 days of posting, we will select the best comment and ship them an Acid Cap of their choice. Good luck!
00:00:00 - The Much Missed Alchemist
00:01:18 - Welcome to new tribe members!
00:03:20 - Tennis Anyone?
00:03:55 - State of play
00:12:17 - Inflation?????
00:24:40 - GAME
00:39:36 - SET
00:44:17 - MATCH
00:46:00 - CHINA
00:48:20 - BEN's NOBEL
00:50:20 - Talk your book
00:59:26 - Talk me off the cliff
01:03:00 - Powell pivot?
01:08:00 - No tears
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🎧 ...
Benn Eifert (🧙🏿♂️, ) @bennpeifert takes the Acid Capitalist into the shadowy world of volatility.
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:00 - Benn Eifert
00:07:30 - The grind
00:13:24 - Relax, have a jelly
00:20:00 - I have a certain set of skills...
00:31:00 - Someone is doing something stupid
00:40:45 - Long convexity
00:50:00 - Puke to the downside
00:57:40 - Two final questions
01:01:00 - Money's too tight to mention
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🎧 ...
Can you make money while saving the planet?
∞ Can any asset have an infinite price target? ∞
The Alchemist and the Acid Capitalist team up with Lawson Steele to get the lowdown on everything carbon…
NOTE: The audio is great. Please note that in the comments! Most improved audio! We are trying!
00:00:00 - 15 years of experience
00:02:23 - The 2nd most famous Steele
00:04:14 - A generation of bad politics
00:22:22 - The set up
00:29:00 - Pull out the calculator
00:31:55 - Don’t forget to carry the 1!
00:39:00 - Success in the tea room!
00:41:00 - To infinity and beyond!
00:50:10 - What its really like/Recession proof
01:00:00 - Time Machine to 2024
01:14:00 - Industrial output
01:18:00 - Risks
01:24:14 - KRBN
01:29:00 - Who is exempt?
01:30:00 - Citroën 2CV
01:35:07 - Capitalism saves the planet?!
01:38:00 - Only Fans with Jacques Cousteau
01:41:22 - World’s smallest violin
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🎧 ...
Cem Karsan's breadth and depth of knowledge has the Acid Capitalist reaching for the Ashwagandha!
NOTE: Apologies for the audio quality. We are trying!
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🎧 ...
Saving retail investors one podcast at at time...all I can ask is that you stick with us till the end on this one...
NOTE: We've sped up our guest’s audio. You'll understand why when you listen.
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🎧 ...
Hendry Goes to China: the Great GDP Swindle
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Welcome to a special episode of the Acid Capitalist -- ghost in the machine. This week we have an interview with an institutional trader on Wall Street who focuses on exotic derivatives and volatility. After the interview was over the guest's firm threatened legal action and tried to stop this episode from airing. The guest and firm will remain anonymous. Listen and judge for yourself why they tried to stop us. I suggest the guest and firm panic. The tribe of Acid Capitalism will not be stopped. Enjoy.
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Join the Alchemist and Hugh as they enter the voodoo lounge with with Jared Dillian...
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00:00:00 - Leaving summer behind
00:03:00 - Dirt nap
00:12:40 - Mistakes were made
00:19:30 - Getting sentimental
00:25:50 - Theory of a**holes
00:42:44 - Sucked out of the mainframe
00:46:45 - Propaganda Machine
00:59:20 - Uranium tourists
01:07:00 - The most compelling trades...
01:12:24 - Cannabis is the next bitcoin?
01:20:00 - DJ Stochastic
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Rampaging Russ AKA Russell Clark, is back for round two!
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00:00:00 - Fetching and sexy
00:02:20 - Melt our minds...
00:20:00 - Whatever it takes!
00:26:30 - The world has changed
00:28:00 - Playing politics
00:29:00 - Adam Smith and beavers
00:35:30 - The great vol machine
00:41:18 - Asset rich, cash poor
00:44:30 - The Texas Hustle
01:04:00 - Bloomberg and other scams
01:07:00 - RIP
01:11:00 - Tail to my fox
01:15:00 - Melt away!
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Prof. Blanchflower joins Hugh and the Alchemist for a no-holds-barred discussion on the folly of group think and failure of central banks.
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00:00:00 - The PM rang me up
00:00:45 - Danny, "Champion of the World"
00:02:10 - Group think
00:04:40 - Silent depression
00:11:40 - Fool me once...
00:22:30 - How did I get here?
00:27:00 - The den of conformity
00:30:00 - The thing that really worries me
00:32:10 - No penalty for being wrong!
00:36:14 - Yanis
00:41:00 - What's the answer?
00:43:19 - Desert Island Discs with Mervyn King
00:50:20 - A world we don't understand
00:51:20 - I recommend the BBC panic
00:52:29 - www.acidcap.com
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🎧 ...
Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) joins the gang to talk commodities, Indiana Jones, pirates and cowboys. Hugh mulls a run for President of Libya; and the Alchemist discusses Hugh's death defying journey through Zimbabwe! Please rate 5-stars, comment and subscribe on Apple Podcasts.
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🎧 ...
@ChiGrl aka Tracy Shuchart is on this week's episode to discuss all things oil!
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@ChiGrl aka Tracy Shuchart
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🎧 ...
Ben Hunt @EpsilonTheory is back for part II of our journey. Tune in, drop out and hold on tight as we enter the heart of darkness...
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Join Hugh Hendry and Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) for a cerebral journey halfway up the river of your mind. Colonel Kurtz and villagers await you on a macro expedition like no other!
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The Acid Capitalist and the Alchemist reunited and ready for a magic mystery tour of Asia with special guest Russell Clark.
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Jump on the bucking bronco🐎 with a special 👏bonus edition👏 of the Acid Capitalist Podcast, featuring the one and only Tom Roderick (@ToStRo)!
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🎧 ...
Jason Bourne aka Matthew Pines joins the Acid Capitalist for a deep dive on tail risk. Let the war games begin. Don't forget to rate, review, comment, and share on Apple Podcasts... the hats are coming people!
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🎧 ...
The Acid Capitalist podcast | Psychedelic Therapy
Do you watch @SHO_Billions? If so, you’re going to love this week’s episode of the Acid Capitalist podcast. Listen here now:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcasts/id1511187978?i=1000568464181
CC @DeniseKShull
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Another live performance reflecting on tribal questions and the precipitous decline in commodity prices one week after the Fed's latest interest rate hike.
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I hate Fridays.This week we had a bantam weight world title decider between the contrarian and the populist. The Acid Capitalist squares up against Dylan Grice. Dylan spent years as a macro advisor tussling with the world's best hedge fund minds. He's worth a listen although the passing years haven't been kind. Still he's coining it in 😘
He takes us through his fund of fund allocations which have paid off this year. We go way back to discover revelations from his earlier career; just what was the payroll number? Schwager interviewed macro talents who could dream the number, Dylan wasn't bothered...
Everyone has a 2008 story. @dylangrice worked for disgraced Ponzi hedge fund manager Bernie Madoff ! An impressionable Dylan thought they rivalled Buffet in the liquidity stakes that fateful winter, little did he realise that he was part of a giant money laundering scheme.
Later @dylangrice was invited to pay his respects at the Manhattan palace of the great Carl Icahn. He regales us with the wonders of what he found there. If Steinhardt kept a gun in his drawer, Carl was more a hammer type guy. A young Dylan feared his seat was rigged to eject
#hedgefunds #macro #economics #trading #deflation
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Another live edition. Humpty Dumpty? Remember the children's poem. With all the king's horses and all the king's men. They couldn't put Humpty together again...Are we closing the chapter that saw asset prices surge post the great financial crisis? Inflation or deflation? Which crisis seems more likely to the shroomers? The church debates.
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We're joined by the Macro Compass writer, Alfonso Peccatiello, former bank prop trader, to discuss all things macro in the wake of JP Morgan's chief, Jamie Dimon, issuing a hurricane warning - bad things are coming.
We examine the meteorological landscape.
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The Acid Capitalism show went live this week. The Alchemist's hair morphed into a flock of seagulls. The Acid Capitalist levitated above the week's noise. He's a plastic thief with no belief in what he steals. A shirtless Good Kid B.a.a.d City holds it together. The Capitalist raps, 'The American Queen, she be smoking Prozac, The Totalitarians, they be smoking Napalm.' Macro thoughts from a bunker on a ting rock on a sea of oblivion. The church is open for prayers
#chinanews #economics #trading #tradingstrategy #apocalypse
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There will be blood. Let’s discuss. The Acid Capitalist continues to fume about injustices. He has the Fed and the mercantilistes in his sights. First the global economy has failed to regain its previous trajectory of greater prosperity ever since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. GDP is lost somewhere over the Atlantic, destination unknown. The economy has recovered for sure but its no way near the level that a rational investor at the turn of the century might reasonably have expected. The shortfall at the global level might be more than $20 trillion. It’s absence froments social anger. There will be blood.
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Bloody hell. So much for stable coins. Fight it out in the comments; does anything matter anymore if the crypto well has been poisoned by lies and malfeasance? The Acid Capitalist saw a debate on twitter about whether he was a misunderstood genius or a pretentious riddler. Neither, he's a fool in a foolish world.
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The Alchemist explores the mysteries of hedge fund management further. This week's deep dive sees him wearing a suit! Can he cut it? The Acid Capitalist had a rough night but he's taken a magic pill to restore his superpowers and he eventually finds his mojo. This week we review central bank rate hikes. Surely, its the end, not the beginning? Private providers of credit have been raising rates since the summer of 2020. The US economy contracted last quarter. Official economic data is heavily revised in later years. Did the British economy relapse into recession last year? Just why are they insistent on more rate hikes? The Acid Capitalist is afraid, very afraid that equity markets might need to reverse all of their post covid glory.
But rather than accentuate the negative, he wants to offer guidelines and solutions. He believes that they should plead a mea culpa, their primary responsibility rests with preserving asset prices. Only by revealing that they're essentially custodian officers charged with preserving the collateral that underpins the huge debt mountain will we move forward. Better yet, they should move to enfranchise those citizens that have no assets. They should create a sovereign wealth fund. QE has only prolonged the depression. Better to impose a withholding tax on mercantilist nations that choose to park their trade bounty in treasury markets. These countries forsake endogenous domestic growth in favour of chasing exports. They perceive this as a more robust economic plan. But the world of international trade is the business of robbing Peter to pay Paul.
To enact their cunning strategy, global savings must rise. In China, savings rise because their currency is set too low, preserving a comparative trade advantage that market capitalism would otherwise bid away. Without their state interventions their currency would rise to bring the world into balance. Chinese households' incomes would reset higher and they might reasonably consume more. This does not happen. Instead savings rise; the share of consumption to gdp is remarkably low for such an advanced state.
The same applies elsewhere. With their comparative advantage, their lower relative manufacturing costs, secured by their "cheap" currency, they bleed jobs and income security f
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This week's episode is probably the most profoundly ridiculous exercise in hyperbole ever attempted. The boys are sensing a regime shift. Volatility is like a prolonged period of high pressure in the atmosphere. Hedge fund types gunned it for all it was worth. Leverage, concentrated portfolios, lies and misdemeanours, they raked up huge profits and made themselves into billionaires many times over.
But the times, they are a changing. Risk-less businesses are been revealed as risky. One by one, these feted masters of the universe are coming unstuck. We discuss.
But we end on a deep dive into the theory of money. With US GDP contracting just as the Fed has committed itself to an aggressive hiking sequence of higher rates, we examine why they always seem so blind to events in the real world. Hiking during a depression has never worked.
We've had four such calamities: 1830-1900, 1873 to 1900, 1930 to the onset of WWII and ever since 2008. They all ended with innovations: the railroads and the discovery of Californian gold, the chemical revolution of leaching that opened up the enormous S African gold supply and the mass adoption of telephony that facilitated correspondent and then eurodollar banking.
At each turn, the free world attempted to rid itself of tyranny. First we removed monarchs and kleptocracies from their nasty habit of specie clipping, then we successively removed governments from money printing. One hundred years since the introduction of the land line, does bitcoin offer the prospect of removing the banks from money? It's a tantalising prospect and it goes far to explain why the Feds are hopeless with money and hence the economy. Truth be told, they're no longer active in the domain of money creation.
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The alchemist doesn't speak, he yells; he's a proclaimer seeking the truth. Hear ye, hear ye, he bellows, the apocalypse is coming. Fear, greed, loathing, they're all set to knock the financial world off its perch once again.
The Acid Capitalist has seen it all before. A block of digital energy, he's vibrating wildly in his bunker and taking down all that antagonises him; poison pills, suave, beige, star hedge fund managers, Netflix, those that purport to save the planet by banning hydrocarbon extraction. This week he's uncut, unkempt, unruly, and channelling a higher frequency. This is financial improvisation at its most unexpected. Wannabe hedge fund stars stay tuned.
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The Reverence Episode. The Alchemist @writes_sweeney finds himself exalting at the triple religious whammy of Easter, Passover and Ramadan. But it's Franz Kafka that holds sway. The messiah will come only when he is no longer necessary; he will come only on the day after his arrival. The Acid Capitalist proclaims that the mysticism demanded to see the future for risk assets demands that you listen to those pursuing deviant pathways. He offers up his wooly hat as evidence...reject the front pages, listen to the Church of Acid Capitalism.
The editing this week has been excessive, "buts", "umms", " "halting silences", they've all been eliminated. The result being that the boys sound as though they've dropped some speed. Have no fear, wisdom awaits the patient.
First on the block, the recurring message that society's fear for the planet has left the hydrocarbon complex under-valued, priced for imminent death and yet the impervious Saudi dollar peg sits unchallenged. Acid wisdom states that when the lego bricks don't fit, you have a giant trading opportunity.
Where have all the dollars gone? A common refrain at cyclical turning points. Stocks are down, government bond prices have been massacred, just where are those dollars? The Capitalist reveals the perils of turning points. That when dollar assets are destroyed, dollar liabilities remain forever, setting off a mighty stampede to deleverage. The Fed's greatest nightmare.
In the 1920s the credit system was predicated on gold, by contrast it is dollar collateral that feeds today's eurodollar credit system. Gold scarcity, and the demands placed on society to cover gold deficits in the 1920s, caused the global economy to crash spectacularly in the 1930s. Could the same thing be playing out again with the dollar? Will the touch point be a renminbi devaluation? Ruminations and distant rumblings are laid bare.
The Alchemist has discovered Libya. Has he dropped some acid? The Capitalist adopts the Ringo Star note of diffidence when pressured to film the Let it Be album there. But in a world constantly changing, in a world where the giant Australian superannuation funds are suddenly pouring money into UK public sector assets, who is really the mad one.? "If I was responsible for $300 bn in pension assets, why not commit a cumulative $15b
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This week, the Acid Capitalist is restored to his spiritual home, Blanc Bleu and boy is The Alchemist on form ! He's dug up some ancient manuscripts from 2007 from the legend, James Dines, the original gold bull. The foolish reject what they see, the wise reject what they think and accept what they see. Except, the Acid Cap is about to do the unpardonable and reject the wisdom that defined his hedge fund career.
He's been looking at the Ruble. He refers to it dismissively as the Barney Rubble. The Barney has eliminated all of its losses since the shock of the unexpected military campaign against Ukraine. Men in Suits are adamant that this marks a profound moment in economic history. That Vlad the Bad is Vlad the Economic genius.
The decision to peg to gold, a modern day gold standard, has many in the financial community proclaiming this as the moment Russia defeated the proxy economic war. But more than that, they claim it as a great pivot in history. Where Russia goes, we will follow. Huh??
The Acid Cap is having none of this. The screen price of the Barney is paint taping propaganda. It doesn't trade except by invitation. It's the preserve of the monetary authorities in Russia and those shameful nations that continue to dance with the Bear. Russian citizens certainly can't sell their Barneys, foreign nationals still holding Russian assets can't sell the rally and, heck, even Russian exporters must return their dollars to the kleptocracy.
A gold standard is feasible in Russia because they've defranchised their citizens but elsewhere, democracies rejected the rigours of gold a century ago. The Wizard of Oz captures this poignantly. In the 19th century it was the elites that determined the outcome of elections. The lion depicts the mighty William Bryan Jennings, the populist presidential candidate who ran 2x and lost. The elites robbed him of his courage...
Gold ain’t neutral. It favours the creditor over the debtor, forces the pain on the We, the People. With no vote, the people back then had to take it on the chin. When Treasury Secretart, Mellon, said purge the system of its rottenness in 1929, he was set to crucify the populace on the cross of gold. Thankfully, saner heads prevailed and the system was de-weaponised within 3 years but not before adult unemployment had su
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The unplugged episode. The Acid Capitalist appears down on his luck this week. Recovering from another bout of dengue fever and yet another evening of rock and roll indulgence, he laments that if only he had found more time to prepare, perhaps the show would have been more spontaneous? Have no fear, the show is interrupted as the French police arrive to question the Acid Cap, the screen drops to an intermission and he returns only to knock out his mic. This is a wild ride. Watch the mayhem unfold.
This week, the membership is asked to reflect on the meaning of mysticism, fantasy and the occult. The Achemist, is incredulous that investors might turn to corn as an alternative to dollar reserves to preserve their wealth. An exasperated Chris demands, " who would do such a crazy thing?" Crazy, retorts the Acid Cap? No more crazy than the faith based system that underpins today's fiat money. I believe... believe...I believe. Our financial world is a religious cult collateralised by blind promises; a score card of broken promises.
Wealth denominated in paper money. China owns around $3 trillion greenbacks at last count, The attraction seems to rest on a promise to pay the bearer on demand. But scratch further and you uncover a web of deceit and broken promises. A promise not to confiscate your assets, to maintain a civil, enterprising society, a promise to uphold civil liberties, a promise that the state serve We the People, a promise of free movement of labour and capital, a promise not to engage in reckless military adventures overseas. He who casts the first sone? No system is faultless but the dominance and endurance of the dollar as the reserve currency of choice testifies perhaps to fewer broken promises...
Coca-Cola jealously guards the secrets of its magic formula. Imagine, instead, if the most successful nation in history were to broadcast its secrets openly to friend or foe? Surely other nations would seek to copy the "sauce" as they sought to emulate if not over take the hedgemon? Despite the transparency, many large economies seem reluctant to steal such a march. Few leaders are willing to let go of their iron-grip control. The Acid Capitalist doubts any command based economy will surpass the USA in our lifetimes.
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Macro Confessions Part XXXII, The Sweeney Alchemist (@writes_sweeney) is worried that the Acid Capitalist (@hendry_hugh), has been detained in Kyiv en route back to his Blessed isle. Recent images reveal a stark concrete bunker. Just where is he this week? He calls upon the aid and inspirational insight of the political economist @MkBlyt, The Tangerine Bishop of Dundee. It's an unforgettable, Scottish ménage-à-trois that will have you reaching for the closed caption service sooner rather than later.
Men in finance have a tendency to talk to themselves, to be swallowed up in a grey, prohibitive universe to the exclusion of the rest of us. Not here...the bunker gets the spray can graffiti treatment, bass guitars are played loud and badly by the Acid Cap and with a swinging rhythm by The Bishop.
What wanna hedgie can resist the exploration of money by those in the know. The contracts governing the external economic relationships of sovereign nations are revealed for all to see. Myths are exploded. Gold, Bretton Woods and the Eurodollar system are assessed and judged. The boys can see a fourth turning point emerging in this mysterious chess game between continents. But what will replace our dying monetary order? The question is pursued with vigour.
Take red pills, get angry, get even...a market based system that seemed set to reset asset values to zero was effectively rescued by a put option, previous generations called it a cross of gold. A system of winners and losers. Where asset values have to be maintained to support the debt, a support system paid for by the serfdom of the working classes.
Either divide our monolithic world into smaller pieces that aren't too big to fail or award asset values to the debtors, to those unlucky enough to be unable to afford assets. Rather than have the Fed accumulate $7 ton of useless laundromat tokens via QE, lets distribute economic tokens to the 99%. Thatcher did it with the public assets. All privatised. The public housing stock, returned to the home seekers. Awarding assets to the majority sparked the moribund economies of the 1970s back into life, could it work again?? The Bishop has a proposal...
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Macro Confessions Part XXXI, a very tired Acid Capitalist, having flown half-way across the globe, joins the The Sweeney Alchemist (@writes_sweeney), in London Town to review the week when risk markets rallied.
But first Chris is intrigued by the re-emergence of Adam Newman and his crypto plan to save the planet. We Work for the Planet but really? The idea is rubbished by a sceptical Acid Capitalist as way too many blue pills and not enough red. And the boys start quoting Madonna, "How High can we go". This graced the cover of the Eclectica April 2007 investor letter just 4 months before depositors at the failing bank, Northern Trust, formed orderly British queues to withdraw their savings as the financial world tilted into a devastating crisis.
Chris pursues his journalist's curiosity. How are Hedge Funds trading the war? Are they redeeming wealthy Russian clients? Why bid for soccer clubs? And just how many computer screens does a manager need to take on holiday? Twitter is celebrated. Hugh reveals he spends more time scrutinising the platform than traditional newspaper outlets. Did you know that the Russian foreign minister's flight to China was aborted mid way into its journey?
But the big news is China. Has China pivoted from its allegiance with Vlad the Mad? Is it the allure of the $85 trillion global economy versus exclusive rights to Russia's imploding $1.7 trillion? Or was it stark signs of the dreaded economic dominoes starting to crash and set off a chain reaction that could humble the mighty Chinese economy? Is this the real explanation behind the 25% reversal in the oil price?
War propaganda, objectivity, dark political arts...just how high can we go? In the week that Bono's peace poem was ridiculed by many, the Acid Capitalists concludes, "Like a thief in the night, see the world by candlelight". No wanna be hedge fund student wants to miss this provocative take on the week's events.
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Macro Confessions Part XXX, the Acid Capitalist is joined by his trusted lieutenant, @ToStRo and together with The Sweeney Alchemist, they brew a heady mix of Putin Put Downs and attempt re-set the global macro chessboard. Chris busies himself with a meaty cheese burger..
Convexity has jumped from our computer screens to the theatre of war. The asymmetry of urban war was well understood by all those not intoxicated by the greed and fear of fascist states. Urban assaults favour the defenders, but like a Bloomberg scenario analysis, convexity has leapt from the city to the surrounding fields and outer limits of the metropole. Anti-tank and anti-aircraft technology supplied liberally to the democracy of the Ukrainian statehood is making this war more asymmetric than any one could ever have hoped for.
Putin hasn't lost his marbles. Rather his gangster political system has left him bereft of proper intelligence. State corruption has fostered an almighty state failure in intelligence. It's as though the former KGB has been transformed into mammoth PR agency intent on amplifying the wishes of its only client.
Ok, enough war-war. Bretton Woods died in the 1960s. Those that seek to right off the hegemony of the dollar collateral system owing to the escalation in the world's first truly global war are mistaken. Is the world shifting, tilting on its axis? You bet! But not as the apologists and doomsayers would have you imagine.
The axis has always been defined by the supposed might of the current account surplus nations versus the receding power of those nations succumbing to current account deficits. Think again...
Channel all your paradoxical thinking. It's been a Wizard of Oz illusion all along. To quote the mighty Wizard, My people have been wearing green glasses so long that most believe this really is the Emerald City. The Acid Capitalist spells it out. Having assets that people crave, that they must own, gives you power. If you can't create enough assets in your own currency that outsiders really want then you never had wealth in the first place. This chimera of wealth is simply the confiscation of other nation's benevolence.
The world is changing, hallelujah! The mighty Sampson like China. What should it do? It should revalue its currency higher to
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Macro Confessions Part XXIX, the Acid Capitalist is mad as hell. Bewildered and traumatised by the human catastrophe in Ukraine, he's left exasperated by sinister political forces seeking to stymie the advance of the European carbon trading platform to advance their own selfish causes. Carbon permit prices have fallen sharply.
He mans his pulpit. An uncommon occurrence. Rarely can one say that you can do-good and make money. The Exchange Trading Scheme has pursued truth via the price discovery system. Competing exchanges in America limit speculation, limit truth seeking activities. The result? The precious resource of the depleted ozone layer trades for just a third of the European scheme. Truth is always the victim.
But Europe's political class teeter on the brink. States fail when they neglect to replenish their energy supply. Having allowed the region's mighty energy reserves to dwindle to less than five years' worth, the Acid Cap fears the euro will spiral lower. Fight them on the beaches, fight them in the markets...but look after your pennies.
Energy? It's still all about energy. Why is OPEC not pumping more oil demands the Chief Disciple, Chris? Because we shouldn't equate oil reserves with brains, snaps Hugh. Warming to his subject, he proclaims that the Dawn of Chaos will wipe out all dollar pegs, even that of the mighty oil sultan. You see, high oil prices are DEATH to price cartels. He elaborates on his thesis.
Everyone is asleep. Time to take the red pills, time to wake up and seize the trading opportunities. Every wannabe hedge should take note. There's work to be done. Hugh declares himself an intellectual psychopath, whatever could he mean? But he's not tempted to buy Alibaba, the once mighty Chinese retail platform. For whom the gods would destroy they first make mad. He's not buying.
No he's starting a hedge fund cult. He's reeling from Cotard Syndrome. An uncommon malady were the victims believe they've died and gone to hell. It seems an apt metaphor for the last week witnessing the Russian advance on Kiev. Contentious narratives that might form the accepted belief system of the future. Carbon offsets are the blue pills of the dozing masses. Cap and Trade is a red pill means to evade The Matrix and protect the planet's future. The Acid Mast
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Macro Confessions Part XXVIII, projecting forward from the macro year 2007. Chris finds a Hank Moody like Acid Capitalist holed up in his friends' beautiful villa in St Barts. staring wistfully at the surf. The unthinkable has happened, Russian tanks have broken ranks and are moving in on Kiev.
Risk becomes philosophical. The Dice Man declares that if you can't think then you have no soul, for a soul is something subject to reflection. Little thinking seems apparent in this modern outbreak of war within the central theatre of Europe and so emotions will determine the landscape of European markets.
The boys begin with a push back on the comments from Shell's trading desk. They claim that speculators are pushing energy prices up to levels that will impact harmfully on ordinary citizens. Pas de tout claims Hugh. It is the long awaited entrance of price discovery that reveals the lamentable record of Europe's leaders. No foresight, no courage has bequeathed a generation with an acute shortage of local energy sources and no infra-structure to link with democratic suppliers. Fight them on the beaches, fight them in the markets...
Gas? It's still all about gas. The High Priest presents a detailed look behind the futures market for energy and the perils of trading commodity futures. He concludes that the blip in energy prices is most unlikely to prove transitory but will be levitated for much longer to encourage better political energy sourcing and to accelerate much needed energy infra structure.
When will the macro reset end? Hugh estimates that one has to keep an eye on mean reversion in the zeitgeist stocks of Apple and Meta. Are times changing? It does look like a return to a time of chaos. The 1970s had an energy crisis, the Russians ignored sovereign niceties and invaded another country and gold? Gold went to the moon. It bares close attention.
Tune in or miss out.
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Macro Confessions Part XXVII, projecting forward from the macro year 2006. Chris finds a dishevelled Acid Capitalist holed up in his cement bunker in St Barts. The initial salvos find the boys reminiscing about the Fight Club, The UNIBomber, Nirvana and bereaving the passing of Agent 007 as one of their own.
Hugh picks up the pace, sharing how he bought the chip company AMD and shorted its larger, more successful competitor, Intel simply because he thought the pattern reminiscent of the gold price's resurgence. Oh Gosh, Oh Gosh I'm Juliette Binoche whispers a wistful Hugh as he confesses to inherent flaws in his trade, but the Dice Man vows never to stop throwing.
The child like wonders of curiosity, Hugh was always asking why the sky was blue? However, he's still furious about environmentalists seeking to prevent all new permitting and exploration for hydrocarbons. Such anarchy is driving energy prices higher. Europe's profound lack of resources is seeing governments subsidizing household energy bills. Could this be the fabled "helicopter money"? Will persistently higher and higher oil prices create permanent and rising cash subsidies. Is this how inflation finally emerges?
A liberty Gas Pipeline from the US to Europe? The boys ask, would this not be a more elegant solution to confronting Russia's bear hug on the European energy market; better than NATO raising defence spending by $100 bn ? The Acid Shamen levitates with excitement at the notion of what a Europe with a cheap source of energy could achieve for the world.
Gas? Chris couldn't let the opportunity pass without asking about the 2006 hedge fund disaster, Amaranth's $6bn implosion, one of the largest ever. Hugh confesses that he too was long nat gas, just not that long!! Why? Because the price of oil had exceeded $40 per barrel for the first time in 25 years. Hugh explains the perils or opportunities from trading commodity futures curves, beware contangos at the short end. Gas prices rise from $1 to $6 per btu and yet you lose 80% trading futures. The boys explain why.
And finally, the Acid Capitalist reveals his new macro trade.
Tune in or lose out.
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Macro Confessions Part XXVI (somewhere in the future) This week the camera never lies. Hugh is trotting out responses under cross-examination from Chris. Bridgewater, Ray Dallio, Is he the greatest hedge fund manager ever? He's certainly made more money than anyone else...And then, Hugh goes freestyle. You can literally see the moment when the Acid Capitalist forms a new idea in his head. You can share that light bulb moment. Be in the room as Hugh brings down absurdity to try save the planet.
No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss this journey from the past to the present. Our resident Time Lord reveals his trippy macro insights and explains why his own endorsement of EU carbon trading permits from last year may now be bearing fruit.
This week, Hugh aims his sights against Extinction Rebellion. Just what purpose does it serve? It feels more like fin de siècle, Dadaism than a logical plan to reduce carbon emissions. He snorts, it's more like the great generational swindle. Kids seeking to make a difference should spend their money buying closed end mutual funds designed to permanently reduce the number of available pollution permits. Stick it to the guy, we should buy the permits before the polluters. It's totally absurd...
They wince as they consider the zero tolerance for new oil field exploration. 6.5 billion people on the planet consume 3 barrels of oil per person per year. We consume 13. Are they to live in poverty, denied our lifestyle? Or will oil demand double before 2050? What to do, pleads Chris? Corner the market for permits, drive the pollution cost higher demands Hugh. And get smarter, use renewable energy to fuel oil and gas exploration. Don't ban oil, that's suicide, find lower carbon oil instead. Only by being smart can we avoid oblivion.
And NFTs, vouchers, permits. nothing is considered out of bounds. Hugh proposes a radical idea to enfranchise all of us. Distribute pollution NFTs to every household for free. Then start issuing fewer and fewer of them and demand that households pay for their own carbon footprint with such vouchers. Those that pollute less will own more vouchers and accrue a very valuable asset. Use crypto technology to spread ownership of the planet's problem, to create the love-cult 2050 with smart people solving the world's greatest pro
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Macro Confessions Part XXV (APRIL,2012) This week Hugh felt a movement in the time-expanse of the financial universe. In a land far, far away, an elderly, wise man of his acquaintance, his Master and Macro overlord bore testimony to a prophecy of bad tidings.
Despite their evident excitement, the boys compose themselves and set about deciphering the godfather of macro, George Soros, and his latest missives delivered in a face-off challenge to China's President Xi.
No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss this journey from the past to the present day where the Time Lord reveals his trippy macro insights and explains why his own apocalyptic warnings from 12 years ago may now be bearing fruit.
This week, in the high stakes game of international trade, they ask, is China the nation that reneged? Does history repeat? Has the Chinese property market mimicked the unstable rise of the DJI in the 1920s? Will there be blood? They wince as they consider the ramifications and ponder how best to start a mania.
Regrets for being 10 years early? Perhaps, admits a frank Hugh, if only he had used the Chinese zodiac. Can the world save China, asks Chris? Hugh compares it to the gripping finale of The Squid Game. The curious tale of the Brazilian Icarus, Eike Batista, is revealed as well as the Soros Open Society. Just why do America's right revere Vlad the Blunderer? And will the rubble's gold backing protect the expansive Putin's flank? Not bloody likely! Snorts a dismissive Acid Capitalist.
In probably the best of the series, Hugh takes us from the Gold Standard to Bretton Woods and now the last days of the EuroDollar Standard. A China reset will likely usher in the end of the dollar hegemony, how will nations reconfigure after the great crash?
Chris continues to spin his wheel...
Can you dare miss this special issue..?
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Macro Confessions Part XX IV (2006) This week risk is resetting. Things changing. There will be opportunities. There will be blood. Let it be the other guy. Let's get absurd. The boys review the slaughter of the innocents, namely the abject poor performance of some of last year's most hyped new companies to emerge on the stock market.
The conversation is fast paced. Chris has led Hugh to the Valley of Happiness but he wants to know more about what's causing the melt down in high profile stock names Peloton, Deliver and Oatly.
No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss this journey from the past to the present day where Hugh reveals his latest macro insights and explains his Quantity Theory of Insanity. The Alchemy of Finance, it is not...
This week they consider The Secret Policeman's Macro Ball, an annual illuminati gathering of the great minds in macro hedge fund management. The event you are assured not to receive an invitation to. Just why do the greatest minds share their best-ideas with their competition?
Regrets, Hugh has a few and he travels back to December 2008 to confront his younger self. You see back in early 2006 he predicted a deflationary event that would send Treasury bond prices surging and the gold price crashing. But when his prophesy came true, he failed to load up on gold. Hugh is raging mad with his younger self.
And with markets in turmoil, the chart rotator returns to examine the Dow Jones constituent 30 stocks to determine where prices are versus their slower, longer-dated moving averages. Hugh invokes his Acid Capitalist powers to draw predictions and stock ideas for the coming year.
Chris continues to spin his wheel...
Tune-in or be square...
Charts can be found here
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Macro Confessions Part XX III (November 2005) This week the boys kick back. Inspired by Jeff Bezos, and his recent jaunt to St Barts, Hugh reveals his 20 hour fast and avocado regime. He believes that longevity and contrarian investing are bedfellows. Chris shakes his head in disbelief.
The conversation is fast paced. Chris has his runner's legs on and wants to know more about what's knocking the capital markets this week. Bonds, not James but the ongoing disturbance in the US Treasury market are discussed. Better to construct an inventory of ideas than trade a market whose long-term trend has yet to change course, cautions Hugh. Check your premises!
No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss this journey from the past to the present day where Hugh reveals his latest macro insights and explains how sometimes he outwitted the market's smartest minds.
This week they take on The Raiders of the Lost Ark, via Cathy Wood's flailing tech fund, and ask why markets generate mysticism to create retail super-star managers and why their unwieldy funds often hit the skids.
Shorting is this week's focus. Why do it? The epic short squeeze of Volkswagen in the midsts of the chaos of October 2008 is explored. Hugh shares his November 2005 Eclectica investment letter to lavish praise on John Armitage, a legendary British hedge fund manager who stopped shorting entirely. The cautionary tale of AW Jones, the manager who first brought L/S strategies to the public's attention, is examined. You wont believe the paradox of what befell him in 1969.
No one is spared. Hugh loved Ken Fisher's book Superstocks but less the man himself. The gloves are well and truly off and at the end Hugh confesses that he's starting to see a re-awakening in the gold sector. Really? Is that possible? Chris' insatiable curiosity remains dialled to the max.
Tune-in or be square...
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Macro Confessions Part XX II (October 2005)
The Scottish tormentor, Chris Sweeney, is pumped to the max as he seeks to understand the inner workings of Hugh's orthogonal Eclectica Fund. The boys use his monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was really thinking at the time and why he made the decisions he did. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss his journey to the present day where he reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights and his chagrin for those that got away.
This week, Chris continues to audit great hedge fund managers' recent performance. Hugh gives them a pass. And Chris is channeling investments via his viewing habits. He asks, is Succession accurate? Are investors petty or the guardian dogs of capitalism? Hugh favours the latter interpretation and responds in an Ayn Randian manner. Never apologise for the wealth created by your intellectual graft, he barks.
The investment discussion goes back to 1979, 1982 and 2005 to ask questions about today's epic bull market in the US Treasury market. Hugh accepts that bond yields will rise over the next 40 years but cautions that nascent bull markets protect their bounty of profits with enormous moats. Investors seeking to capture a bear market in Ts better beware. Adopt paradoxical investment techniques to capture the upside.
And somewhere in the mix they discuss African jeep safari research trips and the prejudice of the present. Tune-in or be square...
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Macro Confessions Part XX (Autumn 2005)
We welcome back again, the Scottish tormentor, Chris Sweeney, to chronicle the inner workings of Hugh's orthogonal Eclectica Fund. The boys use his monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was really thinking at the time and why he made the decisions he did. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss his journey to the present day where he reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights and his chagrin for those that got away.
This week, they examine the first time Hugh really got a good hosing. Warning, it's a shocking tale. And having navigated Christmas, the boys are channelling The Beatles back catalogue; inspired by Let it Be, they ask why exactly was Hugh channeling Abbey Road back in 2005? More big currency gyrations this week. This time Hugh attempts to fit together the jigsaw pieces of 5 year lows in the Japanese yen, the sell-off in US Treasuries and the absurd and persistent cheapness of volatility in Japan. Blame Netflix, but Hugh fears a direct meteor strike on planet "markets" and he is dusting down some convex trades.
And somewhere in the mix they discuss Money Heist and wading through pools of reindeer blood. Tune-in or be square...
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Ever attended a Hedge Fund Christmas Party? We've super charged the subtitles as we welcome back the Scottish tornado, Chris Sweeney to once more chronicle the inner workings of Hugh's orthogonal Eclectica Fund. The boys use his monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was really thinking at the time and why he made the decisions he did. No Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights and his chagrin for those that got away.
This week, we examine Hugh's relationship with Crispin Odey, his vexation at seeing music business valuations explode to the upside this year. He rues his failure to buy EMI back in 2005 when valuations where just 5% to 10% of today's levels. It all makes for A Blue Christmas, the boys are channelling Elvis as they pick over this week's big currency gyrations from Turkey, a country of 85 million inhabitants with a GDP equal to less than a quarter of the value of Apple's stock market capitalisation. Apples and Turkey...merry Christmas one and all.
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This week we have a Shared Confession. Former macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, is joined by Dr. Angus Fletcher (Phd, Yale) , a neuroscientist and professor of Shakespeare. Angus rocks ! His latest book, Creative Thinking, was written especially for US special operatives engaging with live risk. We discuss the carry over principals for all wannabe hedge fund investors. This is hedge fund bootcamp for narrative warriors. The pursuit of linguistics and rogue imagination over data; the rejection of logic. Data predicts yesterday. We suggest a non logical mode of intelligence that dares to see tomorrow. We explain how to react at the speed of life. If you can open yourself up to all the points of perspective when everyone else is rooted in the past then maybe you might just come to find yourself "in the moment". We discuss the principals for seeing the future. Brains don't need spreadsheets but exceptional data. Chaos is brain food.
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Ex macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former investment partner, Tom Roderick, to review the global macro landscape. This week Tom discusses his new macro essay, China's Zodiac Doomsday Clock. Hugh becomes nostalgic for March 2009 and his slow train journey to Wuhan which revealed abundant evidence of China's property overbuilding 12 years ago.
Tom explains why their China blow-up fund never made them a billion dollars. The answer was written in the stars. China's wise men acknowledged Confucius - wise man's clock is slower. Beijing's bureaucrats socialised risk and relied upon rapid gdp growth, urbanisation and population growth to remedy the situation.
The Chinese zodiac has 12 characters like our own system but takes 12 years, not months, to travel the galaxy and back. The gonzo investor shakes his head. A question of faulty time keeping ?
The boys move on and consider whether inflation is deflationary ? This is macro conjecture for grown-ups and Tom asks why investors never consider debt levels to wealth rather than GDP ? The episode concludes with the contest between real and nominal US Treasury yields...which is the centre of our financial universe ?
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Former macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former investment colleague, Tom Roderick, to review the global macro landscape.
This week they argue over inflation. Hugh is sceptical, Tom less so. The gonzo investor rails against the media’s shock and outrage on witnessing higher prices. “We closed the world for more than a year and then jolted it back to life with the greatest ever cash incentive to buy...why are we surprised that some prices have surged?” bellows Hugh from his cave in St Barts.
The boys consider a means to overcoming their differences and suggest that the Fed should take note. Tom has an ingenious idea – The Rule of 2 %. That the Fed should only announce a hike in rates should the 10-year Treasury yield breach 2%. But could the Fed ever admit to its lack of omnipotence in the rate setting arena even though the bond market always calls it right? Tom then explains why macro managers own gold in their hedge funds - hint, it’s the cheapest inflation hedge.
This is macro conjecture for grown-ups and part I concludes with a review of a recent and revelatory thread by Michael Pettis, a prominent macro economist. Does China’s undervalued exchange rate and / or low wages export deflation onto an unsuspecting West? The boys de-construct the logic to confirm that yes, it is trade policy and not interest rates that govern our financial universe. Unless surplus nations mend their ways, risk-free rates will likely remain pinned to the floor and cautious investors will continue to forgo maximising future returns in favour of avoiding even greater losses.
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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former colleague, Tom Roderick, who manages macro at Trium in London, to review the revelatory and impending bust of China's legendary Evergrande Property. Macro hasn't been seen in Chinese waters for almost a decade. A strong currency with a positive carry and a stock market seemingly impervious to shocking state interventions has ensured a lack of willing naysayers. The Acid Capitalist, Hugh, and Tom, explains how China's property companies were the safest stocks in the global sector owing to their ability to transfer risk quickly. That the least risky companies are now in jeopardy does not bode well especially as Chinese property, relative to household wealth, is 4x greater than in the US. The boys consider a bull market in fear where sovereign Chinese bonds will supplant property as the de facto collateral position. They can conceive of a steeply inverted yield in a land more accustomed to wearing flats and they ask whether flaunting opulence and the mania for luxury may not sit well with the modern creed of common prosperity. Buckle up! This is macro conjecture for grown-ups.
Chapters:
00:00 Shared Confessions China's Geometric Risk Taking
02:45 Why Macro didn't Short the Red Lines
05:15 Why the $ is red Cabbage in Beijing
10:55 China Property Market was Risk Free
15:35 Fechner and the Geometry of Chinese GDP Growth
17:25 Why Now ? And the Grapes of Wrath
21:30 FX chart, Mad Max Leverage Internal or External ?
26:45 Everything is Macro
32:40 Is there a China Macro Trade with no Tears for Fears?
37:35 China the Land Of Flat Yield Curves
40.45 Stay At the Money with Your Strikes
42:00 Apathy is the Catalyst for Perplexing & Engaging Trades
46:15 Common Prosperity Questions Luxury Valuations
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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites former investment partner, Tom Roderick, to dive under the hood and examine how one becomes a hedge fund manager. They revisit the summer of 2005, the S&P has been marooned for 2 years moving sideways as the economy and corporate profitability improve. What would an aspiring young manager do?
Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry chronicles the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's discussions with other though leaders are deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he's thinking and why in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabe can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.
This week we find a rather pallid Hugh cursing his demons from the night before and his newfound love of Pickle-Ball and tequila. Tom quizzes him on why he was 75% net long and not 35% or 120% long? And how did he size risk positions? How did he seek to optimize his portfolio in a world before the rule books had been written. Was this risk taking on the hoof, a form of dopamine bingo, with creativity the deciding risk factor? Hugh and Tom reveal all.
Chapters:
00:00 Shared Confessions Acid Capitalist
05:10 Optimal Risk Sizing
10:30 Soros / Druckenmiller Lite Risk Model
14:00 Losing My Curiosity
15:15 The macro narrative of 2005
18:00 The Status Quo Changing
21:00 Dopamine Bingo - Creativity at Risk (CaR)
22:30 Eclectica Fund Attribution
28:00 Longs 2x Shorts but shorts bigger than longs..?
30:00 2005 the year institutions crashed the Commodity scene
35:00 Not a Bull Mkt till you've had Violent, Painful Corrections
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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites digital fashion entrepreneur, Karinna Knobbs, to provide another overlay between macro and tech and maybe even fashion? Ever wondered how hedge fund managers develop their ideas? Watch as Hugh interviews Karinna and they discuss THE DEMATERIALISED, an experimental marketspace for digital fashion including a system for the creation and trading of NFTs. Karinna founded the site with Marjorie Hernandez.
Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry chronicles the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's discussions with other though leaders are deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he's thinking and why in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.
This week we find Hugh deep in thought and yearning to take macro, commercial. In a world dominated by surging asset prices and the gulf between the haves and have nots, Hugh quizzes Karinna to better understand the opportunity - can we make everything affordable? Ever wanted to eavesdrop on an interesting question? Ever wondered what it would feel like to be grilled by a grizzly hedge fund manager? Here's your opportunity. Nothing is left unsaid, consumer psychology, Cracker - the legendary British tv series - asymmetric reality try-ons. Join us for some trans media storytelling
Chaoters:
00:00 Shared Confessions The Pattern Seeker
02:15 Multi Site Villa Rental St Barts
03:21 Good for everyone: creator platform influencer consumer
05:00 One third of the world population are gamers
06:30 Making Everything Affordable
11:25 Trans Media Story Telling
16:00 Asymmetric Reality Try Ons
18:30 The Drop $3.1M in 7 minutes
23:30 $6 Sneakers
28:00 A Sexy Functional Platform
29:30 A Spatial Web in the Metaverse
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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites technology savant, Benedict Evans, to provide an overlay between macro and tech. Together they explore the new questions: crypto, machine learning, shifts in ecommerce, what's happening in media, China, and it's 900 million users and their significance on the rest of the world.
Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry chronicles the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's discussions with other though leaders are deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he's thinking and why in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.
This week they also discuss the convexity of adoption and why crypto as a tradeable asset could be as, or more effective, to the pressing issue of today - how do you kick-start a new network or community. Is it more effective than Instagram spending? The boys discuss. Hugh is ready to proclaim a new macro world. He can see a future were the economy turns people into assets. He gets very excited.
Chapters:
00:00 Shared Confessions Is it possible to tokenise knowledge
04:05 Comparing Crypto to Opensource technology
07:35 The Convexity of Adoption
11:40 Turn People Into Assets
13:45 The Irrevocability Bug of Tokens
14:30 All Financial Innovations go to far
17:15 Instagram reached 50m users with 7 people
19:00 Apple's new Ad Model
20:25 Duck Duck Go...The Google Token
23:50 Today's Icons - Zero Marketing
25:20 L'Oreal does 25% Sales online
28:25 Chinese Concepts Go Global
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Chapters:
00:00 Confessions Part XXI Fed Irrelevant. Macro Has Changed
01:30 3D Macro
03:20 De Carbonisation / De Globalisation / Demographics
06:30 A Commodity Bull Market with no Brakes
07:20 Oil Price $180 to $65 but 13 y later, GDP +2x & Wealth +3x
08:30 Does DeCarbon De-Nuke Corporate Profits?
10:00 One Bank will become risk seeking; others will follow...
14:00 Worst Becomes Best - Why you should BUY @ 1998 prices
16:40 Renault sold more electric cars in EU than anybody else
18:20 Commodities Trade @ Historic Value Lows 3x EBITDA
19:15 PGMs the Ethereum Commodity: Store of Value + Industrial App
21:25 Sibanye Stillwater / Anglo Plats / plus a few others
23:00 Expensive Annuity or V Cheap Perpetuity?
25:20 What does a Macro fund do with an 8x bagger?
29:40 Gold Miners/ Bitcoin Plus Dividends?
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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites his former colleague Tom Roderick, the manager of the Trium Macro Hedge Fund, to review this week's crash in cryptocurrencies. They draw parallels with the tech bubble of the late 1990s and the pyramid of leverage that lay behind the housing bubble in late 2006. They discuss bitcoin's coming of age. With values soaring past one trillion dollars, crypto is no longer a cheap out-of-the money call option on currency debasement. Downside volatility will feature as prominently as the upside. Finally, they venture that real world applications for the currency could take bitcoin beyond its peak price.
Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry, chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's monthly client letter is deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.
This week he also chronicles his fight with his old boss, Crispin Odey, that saw them go long and short the same stock in their different funds and Hugh concludes by examining the social mood of ESG, why it is likely to create a further and huge up leg in commodity prices and why gold prices feel like bitcoin at 10,000
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Macro Hedge Fund Manager offers more global insights and delivers a shellacking of Elon Musk, Tesla, and their incestuous menage-à-trois with Bitcoin. Comparing the ESG mood to the anti-bank sentiment in the 1930s, he compares Bitcoin with Lehman Brothers; is one as incongruous as the other? He takes us from a critique of dirty bitcoin to a deep dive into the Chinese steel industry - showing why the moribund steel sector could be poised to enter a bull market.
Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund using its monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.
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Hugh goes back to the future to zero in on the hydroelectric income trust, Innergex, in the Canadian province of Quebec. Having invested back in 2005 he re-examines the business today, 16 years later. He also empties the tank on his disdain for fellows in suits and moustaches, the zeitgeist of impending inflation and what the big US banks are telling us. He even treats us to another spin of The Hendry Chart Rotator., this time reviewing the largest European stocks. And Hugh explains why the "sophistication" for market neutral strategies can creates absurdities and opportunities. He suggests that the fallen tech giant ,Nokia, could be set to crawl out from its shallow grave.
Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. The boys use Hugh's monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.
This week, Elton John, Phil Collins and Run DMC pop up in the weekly song choice. Walk This Way people.
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Hugh gets X-rated unveiling his version of hardcore pornography - The Hendry Chart Rotator.
He offers a lesson from what can be gleaned from chart patterns. We discuss the shocking failure of Europe - youth unemployment - and why the banks are the cork in the bottle right now and an analysis of Sony recording their biggest ever annual net profit. Hugh even gets in an almighty fangle and confuses Hitachi for Toshiba. We've kept it not to spare his blushes.
Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. They use Hugh's monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.
There's also mention of Tesla, Elon Musk and Hugh goes all millennial by delving into social media phenomenon, Only Fans. Plus, we squabble over being from Scotland's biggest city, Glasgow - one of us was born and bred there, the other fled.
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Mick Jagger's Swagger warns us to be wary of Bitcoin
Hugh lifts the lid on how the pressures of working side by side with Crispin Odey drove him to seek refuge on Mustique, where he rented a house next door to Sir Mick Jagger and near Bryan Adams, He talks about how a drop in commodity prices in late 2004 hit him hard, but how he battled with the searing Caribbean heat (minus air-conditioning) to end the year +8%.
Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. The boys use Hugh's monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.
This week there's also a look at the fall in Bitcoin, what a gap in a price chart signifies and Hugh reveals that he no longer knows where the Chinese currency should trade.
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🎧 ...
Hugh laments on the things he didn't see as clearly in 2004, as he does now. There's a warning from someone who's experienced it - if you're anointed an investment god, don't get too high on your own supply. And an article from The Financial Times is eviscerated for forewarning the coming power of digital currency.
Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. The boys use Hugh's monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.
This week there's also chats about The Beastie Boys, Swedish discount retailer Axfood, the power of a third, how price-to-sales works as a value metric and how one of Hugh's former colleagues fled Iran stitched inside a sofa.
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The narrative continues as we jump from uranium into the oil market, and we get filthy, maybe even dirty... Why did the scorpion kill the frog? Hey hedge Fund managers gotta make money. There's also a look at China, could it be about to turn Japanese? Too early to say conclusively but the Princes of the Yuan are stirring?
Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and his co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. The boys use Hugh's monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.
This week they discuss his journey into 2004, why he told his clients to "bury their money in the backyard" and what he makes of the $1.8 billion purchase of London skyscraper 100 Bishopsgate. Sadly, there's no orgasms this time but Hugh's maybe contemplating a return and refuses to let the episode end as the trade ideas keep flowing and he delivers an extended masterclass. Even Iggy Pop gets a mention. Use the chapter headings and the closed caption service to skip to the nitty gritty.
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Deep dive into the uranium sector and the Archegos scandal. Plus, how Hugh was almost tossed out of a plane by Robert Mugabe’s money men during a trip to Africa.
Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and his co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund
The boys use Hugh's monthly client letters as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.
This week they discuss his bright start to 2004 and why genius is buying anything at the bottom of a bear market. Having shorted chip stocks in 2004, Hugh explains why the electricity of everything means chips with everything. What killed the previous uranium bull market and why the charts are so orgasmic.
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Confessions XII 4thQ 2003 - Goldfinger, Putin, travelling supersonic and finding EU carbon credit equities.
Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and his co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund
The boys use Hugh's monthly client letters as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.
This week they discuss his sparkling 50 percent annual return for 2003, what is probably Vladimir Putin's personal quoted oil company and how the climate change agenda is permeating through to the equity market.
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Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and his co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund's 15-years of operation, from 2002 to 2017.
The boys are using Hugh's monthly letters to clients as a basis to take the audience on a journey into what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. It's the financial equivalent of a gripping true crime adventure. It's also an exclusive look behind the curtain of a Hedge Fund with nothing off-limits.
This week they discuss how Hugh drove home his epic gold trade and why if he still ran a hedge fund, he'd be going big on carbon trading. But be warned, Hugh is in a bad mood this episode, even though he just celebrated his birthday in St Barts! Poor, poor Chris.
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Confessions X July/Aug 2003 - Hugh's shorting Lehman Bros and reveals all about his Mercedes luxury mobile office/cinema that his wife drove!
Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and his co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund
The boys are using Hugh's monthly letters to clients as a basis to take the audience on a journey into what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. It's the financial equivalent of a gripping true crime adventure. It's also an exclusive look behind the curtain of a Hedge Fund with nothing off-limits.
This week they discuss Hugh's insight into how you can be too early, why gold may be about to repeat the moves of 2003 and his love of Madonna's debut album. Chris also bizarrely spends the episode stuck in 2005.
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Confessions IX June 2003 - Why Hugh "St Barts Bono" Hendry should run the Bank of England, plus the genius of buying a lousy company.
Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and his co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund's 15-years of operation, from 2002 to 2017.
The boys are using Hugh's monthly letters to clients as a basis to take the audience on a journey into what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. It's the financial equivalent of a gripping true crime adventure. It's also an exclusive look behind the curtain of a Hedge Fund with nothing off-limits.
This week they discuss Hugh's insight into gold that the world's central bankers failed to see, his surprise/disgust at discovering who Sean Paul is, Japan's Kanaden and why American hedge funds make so much compared to their British counterparts.
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Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and his co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Electica Fund's 15-years of operation, from 2002 to 2017.
The boys are using Hugh's monthly letters to clients as a basis to take the audience on a journey into what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. It's the financial equivalent of a gripping true crime adventure. It's also an exclusive look behind the curtain of a Hedge Fund with nothing off-limits.
This week they discuss Hugh's insight into Bitcoin, his beloved Celtic FC's 2003 UEFA Cup agony, his significant investment into the club and how his fund spectacularly bounced back from a crippling March.
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Hedge Fund maverick Hugh Hendry and his co-host journalist and author Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund's 15-years of operation, from 2002 to 2017.
The boys are using Hugh's monthly letters to clients as a basis to take the audience on a journey into what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. It's the financial equivalent of a gripping true crime adventure.
It's also an exclusive look behind the curtain of a Hedge Fund with nothing off-limits.
This week they discuss Hugh's decision to start a Hedge Fund, sausage industry juggernaut Devro, investing in gold, Hugh's big play in the market of the spice nutmeg and even reveal who his famous next door neighbour is in St Barts. Weirdly, they even end up talking about Romanian pop duo The Cheeky Girls. It's anything but orthodox.
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I recorded this last summer. I have so much admiration for Professor Pettis. Almost everyone in macro with risk positions in China inevitably must seek out his sage council. I really enjoyed the opportunity to bathe in his wisdom once more. But first, we had to talk about the rock scene in Beijing. Enjoy.
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I try and answer your questions relating to my recent twitter outburst regarding the role of negative interest rates. I explain how the external trading value of the dollar is being held hostage. That the US has lost its exorbitant privilege. Yes, it can still print money, should its private sector banks be willing, however it can no longer lower the external value of the dollar vis-a-vis its trading partners. The mercantilists have gained the upper-hand. I try and explain how negative US dollar rates might represent a valid and rational attempt to free the US from such serfdom. Give me 48 hours and I'll clean up the transcript. And I'm putting together a video montage for my YouTube channel - ever wondered how the Treasury pleading with the G7 would look inside my head? Stay tuned.
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Losing $40m over 2 months. My first rookie mistake - too much risk. Gold approaching $400. It would stay there next 3 years but the shares were going to surge. Everything screamed buy. Except they wobbled first. Survivors dig shallow’er graves - selling my beloved stocks.
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Gold stocks surging. Fund performance recovers. Explaining the explosive convexity of gold miners. Another hedge fund manager from Glasgow - his family built ships. Nokia a tale of then and now. An unhappy time in Mustique and David Yarrow convinces me to set up my own business. Fund +4.1pc FTSE All Share -9.8pc.
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The gold stocks arrive @ Eclectica A very deep gold mine Buying the WORST in case you're proved correct. Plasticine Macro trader. Barry Callebaut. A party overlooking Red Square with Jimmie, Mark & Nassim. Fund +1.8pc FTSE All Share -6.9pc.
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1 Month Eclectica Fund -0.1%; FTSE All Share +0.8%
YTD Eclectica Fund -4.9%; FTSE All Share +9.0%
What did I do when I discovered Amsterdam commodities?
In my head, the voices are saying, there's gonna be a commodity boom!
But it's incredibly hard to find equity exposure because investment banks just present you more of what worked last time. All we could find were strange creatures like Amsterdam commodities: no website, absolutely zero interest in talking to us…
That’s why they call it a brave new world…
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I cry, You Cry. New babies, catching fallen angels, too early for rate cuts.
Baptism of fire: launching a global macro hedge fund at the bottom of the bear market.
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🎧 ...