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    History

    Subject to Change

    I talk to the world’s best historians and let them tell the stories. And the stories are wonderful! (And occasionally I change the subject and talk about films, philosophy or whatever!).

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    Copyright: © 2023 Subject to Change

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    Latest Episodes:
    The Tokyo Tribunal: War Crimes, Justice, and Geopolitics Aug 18, 2025
    Show notes

    This episode looks at the courtroom drama that helped to shape Asia after World War II with Princeton University's Gary Bass. Far more than a simple account of justice served, the Tokyo War Crimes Tribunal represents a fascinating intersection of international law, power politics, and competing visions of history that continues to reverberate through East Asian relations today.
    The tribunal tried 28 Japanese leaders for crimes that began long before Pearl Harbor. Imperial Japan's expansionist wars stretched back decades, leaving a trail of atrocities including the Nanjing Massacre where approximately 200,000 civilians were killed. Yet political calculations ensured Emperor Hirohito remained untouched, creating an enduring contradiction where his closest advisor received a life sentence while the monarch himself watched from his palace.
    Three defendants embody the trial's moral complexities: defiant Prime Minister Tojo Hideki who used his testimony to justify the war; the Emperor's advisor Kido Koichi who claimed to restrain militarists yet enabled their actions; and perhaps most poignantly, Foreign Minister Togo Shigenori who actively opposed the war, confronted military leadership, and later pushed for surrender—only to die in prison after conviction.
    What distinguishes this tribunal from Nuremberg is its contested legacy. While Germany embraced denazification, some Japanese war criminals later returned triumphantly to politics- including Kishi Nobusuke who became Prime Minister in 1957. His grandson, former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, continued questioning the tribunal's legitimacy decades later. Meanwhile, at the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, war criminals are venerated alongside fallen soldiers, revealing Japan's unresolved relationship with its imperial past.


    The Pilgrimage of Grace: When England Fought the Reformation Jul 28, 2025
    Show notes

    When 50,000 northerners marched under their banners in 1536, England witnessed its largest rebellion since the Peasants' Revolt. The Pilgrimage of Grace wasn't just a protest - it threatened to undo the English Reformation completely and return the kingdom to Rome.
    Professor Peter Marshall, the renowned Tudor historian, tells the story of this extraordinary episode where religious devotion, political power, and regional identity collided with explosive results.
    Henry VIII's desperate quest for a male heir led him to break with Rome, setting off changes that wentfar beyond the royal bedchamber. What began as a "change of the English Church's CEO" rapidly transformed into something more radical - monasteries dissolved, shrines dismantled, and traditions questioned. For northerners especially, these weren't abstract theological matters but direct attacks on community identity.
    When the rebels and royal forces faced off across the River Don, England's religious future hung in the balance. A providential rainstorm, false royal promises, and factional divisions among the rebels ultimately preserved Henry's reformation.
    Peter is brilliant in explaining how the English reformation got started and how a rebellion came within a whisker of stopping it in its tracks and tumbling Henry from his throne.


    Byzantium and the First Crusade Jul 09, 2025
    Show notes

    The ever excellent Professor David Parnell (of Belisarius and Antonina fame) came on to talk about the First Crusade. And given his interest in the Eastern Roman Empire we spent a lot of time talking about it from that angle. When Emperor Alexius I found his thousand-year-old empire crumbling under Turkish advances in the late 11th century, he asked the West for help. He got more than he could have expected!
    What followed was extraordinary. Pope Urban II's call at the Council of Clermont in 1095 unleashed an avalanche of armed pilgrims, knights, and nobles who descended upon Constantinople with a mixture of religious zeal and worldly ambition. From this magnificent but now vulnerable city Alexius faced the delicate task of channeling this unpredictable Western force toward his enemies while maintaining control over his own destiny.
    We started by talking about the history written by Alexius's daughter Anna Komnene (the first long-form narrative by any European woman) who was at pains to show the brilliance of her father. We followed the crusade to Antioch and talked about Alexius's fateful decision not to come to the aid of the crusade when it most needed him. A decision that would eventually bear bitter fruit in the catastrophic Fourth Crusade a century later.
    The Byzantine perspective on the First Crusade reveals a sophisticated diplomatic dance that initially saved the empire, restoring significant territories and ushering in a period of stability known as the Komnenian Restoration. Yet it also set in motion forces that would eventually contribute to Constantinople's downfall.


    Shattered Jewels - Japan's Path to War (3 and final) Jun 19, 2025
    Show notes

    What makes a nation launch an attack it cannot hope to win? Admiral Yamamoto, who planned the Pearl Harbor attack, warned Japan's leadership they would have only six months before America would mobilize its entire continent to destroy them. He was right, but his warning was ignored.
    The episode starts with a discussion about the controversial Yasukuni Shrine and museum, where we gain insight into how Japan's military establishment viewed their expansionist ambitions. This museum is not just a collection of artifacts, but a repository of the attitudes that drove a nation to catastrophe.
    From the initial stunning successes across Asia to the turning point at Midway, we trace how Japan's military philosophy of "better to be a shattered jewel than an intact roof tile" led to extraordinary casualties. The Japanese leadership's desperate hope that inflicting maximum casualties would force America and its allies to accept a negotiated peace collapsed under the weight of industrial warfare and, ultimately, atomic devastation.
    We asked when the bitter feelings resulting from the conflicts that made up Japan's wars in the Pacific might fade. Jonathan suggest the following might help in trying to answer this. "Everyone periodizes history in their mind into three different categories: everything from Adam and Eve to my grandfather, what happened from my grandfather to me, and what happened in my own lifetime."
    Join us for this conversation about the decisions that led to war, the mindsets that prolonged it, and the complex legacy that continues to influence international relations in East Asia today.


    Manchuria to Pearl Harbor: Japan's Path to War (2) Jun 11, 2025
    Show notes

    How did Japan become embroiled in one of history's deadliest conflicts? The answer lies not in December 1941, but decades earlier. Jonathan Clements returns to unravel the forces that propelled Japan down a path to war with the world's greatest industrial power.
    Following Japan's victory in the First Sino-Japanese War, the country emerged with new confidence only to face the humiliation of the Triple Intervention, when European powers forced them to surrender their hard-won territories. This sparked a determination to secure Japan's place among world powers, leading to their stunning defeat of Russia in 1904-1905 – a conflict Clements describes as "World War Zero" for its preview of technologies that would dominate WWI battlefields.
    The narrative takes us through Japan's growing reliance on Manchuria, transformed into the puppet state of Manchukuo under the last Chinese emperor. Here we discover the industrial heartland that supported Japan's imperial ambitions while exploring the darker realities of colonial rule. Perhaps most fascinating is Jonathan's exploration of Japan's internal dissent, from brave parliamentarians like Saito Takao who questioned the endless China conflict to the telling detail of restaurants suddenly serving only squid – a sign the fishing fleet had been devastated by war.
    As economic pressure mounted in 1941, we witness the fateful deliberations that led to Pearl Harbor, including Admiral Yamamoto's reluctant planning and prescient warning about "waking the American dragon." Through meticulous research and compelling storytelling, Jonathan shows how resource dependency and strategic miscalculations drove Japan toward a confrontation it couldn't win.


    An Alien Game: Japan's Path to War (1) Jun 03, 2025
    Show notes

    The transformation of Japan from hermit kingdom to imperial power happened with breathtaking speed. When American Commodore Perry's "black ships" steamed into Tokyo Bay in the 1850s, they shattered Japan's 250-year isolation with technology that seemed to come "from 200 years in the future." This technological gap created a constitutional crisis that would ultimately topple the Tokugawa Shogunate and usher in the Meiji Restoration of 1868.
    Jonathan Clements guides us through this pivotal period where Japan found itself facing what one historian calls "an invitation to an alien game" - forced to adopt international norms and institutions they never agreed to. Rather than becoming colonized like China or India, Japan's new leaders determined to become players in this global power game. They systematically studied Western nations, adopting what they perceived as the best elements of each: a German-style army, British naval technology, and aspects of French law.
    This selective modernization happened against a backdrop of growing militarism and expansionism, particularly toward Korea - strategically described as "the dagger at the heart of Japan." The 1894-95 Sino-Japanese War demonstrated Japan's new capabilities, but the subsequent "Triple Intervention" by Russia, France and Germany (forcing Japan to abandon territorial gains) created a humiliation that would fuel future aggression.
    Throughout this period, the Japanese government struggled with "gekokujō" - military insubordination where officers initiated "incidents" that expanded Japanese influence without authorization. The assassination of Korea's Queen Min by Japanese agents exemplifies this dangerous pattern where unauthorized actions expanded imperial control while undermining civilian government - creating precedents that would ultimately lead Japan toward its catastrophic Pacific War.
    Whether you're interested in East Asian history, imperial expansion, or the roots of 20th century conflict, this exploration of Japan's rapid transformation reveals how quickly a nation can reinvent itself - for better or worse.


    How England Nearly Conquered France & Why They Failed May 02, 2025
    Show notes

    The Hundred Years' War shaped medieval Europe's political landscape for over a century—but what really caused this epic conflict between England and France? In this illuminating conversation, former UK Supreme Court Justice and acclaimed medieval historian Lord Jonathan Sumption cuts through myths and misconceptions to reveal the war's true origins.
    Contrary to popular belief, the war didn't begin as a simple grab for the French crown. Instead, it stemmed from a complex constitutional crisis when French kings began centralizing power over previously semi-independent territories held by English monarchs. As Lord Sumption explains, "The kings of England decided that the only way they could retain their independence as dukes of Aquitaine was to cast off the sovereignty of the French crown."
    The discussion explores how England, despite being smaller and less wealthy, repeatedly triumphed on the battlefield through technological advantages like the deadly longbow and tactical innovations such as dismounted combat. We examine Parliament's crucial role in war financing and how devastating chevauchées (mounted raids) terrorized the French countryside for decades.
    Perhaps most fascinating is Lord Sumption's analysis of Joan of Arc's extraordinary impact. Through "an insane degree of courage," this remarkable figure transformed French morale and fulfilled a prophecy about France's redemption by a spotless virgin. Her push for Charles VII's coronation at Reims proved pivotal in convincing French subjects of his divine right to rule.
    The war's conclusion came not through a single decisive battle but through French administrative reorganization, standing armies, and Burgundy's crucial defection from the English alliance. As Lord Sumption observes, even exceptional leaders like Henry V ultimately could not overcome resource disparities—reminding us that in warfare, available resources ultimately determine outcomes.


    Imperial Twilight: How Trade, Tea, and Opium Led to War Apr 09, 2025
    Show notes

    The story of the Opium War is one of history's most consequential yet widely misunderstood conflicts. Professor Stephen Platt joined me to unravel the fascinating web of events that led Britain and China into a collision that would reshape Asia and the global balance of power for centuries to come.
    Far from being a simple tale of drug dealers backed by imperial force, Stephen reveals cultural misunderstandings, diplomatic failures, and economic pressures eventually converging with devastating consequences. We talked about the Canton trading system where all Western trade was restricted to a tiny compound "smaller than the footprint of one of the pyramids in Egypt," and how Britain's insatiable appetite for tea created a massive trade imbalance that would eventually be filled by opium.
    The conversation takes us through extraordinary attempts at cross-cultural communication, from James Flint (the only Englishman alive who could speak Chinese in 1759) to the disastrous McCartney Embassy where diplomatic relations collapsed over the kowtow ritual. Stephen explained how a panicking British captain effectively made Queen Victoria "the largest holder of opium in the world" by buying merchants' illegal drugs on the government's behalf - a fateful decision that created the legal pretext for war.
    Perhaps most surprising is how fiercely contested this war was within Britain itself, with Parliament nearly voting to end the conflict by a margin of just five votes. The Times of London coined the term "Opium War" specifically to shame the government for fighting on behalf of drug dealers.
    Join us for this exploration of a pivotal moment when two civilizations, each convinced of their own superiority, failed to understand one another with consequences that continue to echo in our time.

    Stephen's book Imperial Twilight concentrates on the causes of the war more than the war itself. And in particular the people at the heart of it all. Utterly brilliant stuff.


    Suleiman's curse - with Christopher de Bellaigue Mar 17, 2025
    Show notes

    I spoke to Christopher before about his book the Lion House. That was part 1 of a trilogy on the life of Suleiman the Magnificent. Christopher is back to talk about part 2: The Golden Throne - the Curse of a King.

    From the intricate power dynamics of the Ottoman court to bloody naval battles in the Mediterranean, "The Golden Throne" recreates the world of Suleiman the Magnificent at the height of his reign. We discover an empire where Christian slaves could rise to the highest positions of power, where the harem functioned as a complex political institution, and where eunuchs served as crucial information brokers between the male and female spheres of governance.

    The life of Suleiman himself – from youthful sultan to aging monarch increasingly concerned with piety and legacy – forms the emotional core of the book. But just as interesting is the diplomatic chess match between the four great powers of the era – Suleiman's Ottomans, Francis I's France, Charles V's Habsburg Empire, and Henry VIII's England – reveals surprising alliances that defied religious boundaries.

    The scandalous partnership between "the Most Christian King" Francis I and the Muslim Ottomans against fellow Christian powers demonstrates how realpolitik has always trumped ideological purity. Meanwhile, the Mediterranean becomes a theater of spectacular naval conflict, where the pirate-turned-admiral Barbarossa conducts raids of shocking brutality while engaging in a curious dance of mutual avoidance with his Habsburg counterpart Andrea Doria.


    Perhaps most chilling is de Bellaigue's exploration of the Ottoman succession system – the literal "Curse of the King" that gave sultans the legal right to execute their brothers upon taking the throne. As Suleiman ages and his numerous sons position themselves for power, we witness how this institutional fratricide casts a shadow over the royal family, with Hurrem (Roxelana) orchestrating a dangerous campaign to ensure her sons triumph over the popular prince Mustafa. This family drama builds toward a climactic resolution that reveals the brutal foundations of imperial power.


    Anton Howes on Salt (and on much, much more!) Feb 14, 2025
    Show notes

    Anton Howes writes the brilliant Age of Invention substack. We were supposed to talk about the history of salt and its powerful impact on people and states. We certainly did talk about that but also a lot more!

    - history's efflorescences

    - Henry VIII's ruthless tax grabs

    - The feebleness of England (until suddenly . . .)

    - Rebel space colonies

    - The Spanish and English Armadas

    - Lot's wicked daughters

    - The Roman (non) Industrial Revolution

    And amidst all our digressions I mentioned the film with more digressions than even we could manage, The Saragossa Manuscript. Highly recommended. And also the documentary about salt production in My Name is Salt which is just wonderful.



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