Show notes
Griffin Warner talks betting for Thursday.
Griffin Warner returns for episode 69 of What I Bet with a full breakdown of the Thursday, July 23rd Major League Baseball card, working through five games, sharp line movement, and a final best bet before first pitch. He opens by checking in on a hot recent stretch of picks, sitting at 6 and 2 in the last 8, 8 and 3 in the last 11, and 11 and 5 in the last 16, fueled in part by Kansas City's dramatic comeback sweep of the San Francisco Giants earlier in the week. From there, at 1 46, Griffin turns to San Diego at Atlanta, where Griffin Canning faces Chris Sale in an early getaway day start, and he tracks San Diego drifting from around plus 193 out to plus 204 while the total sits at 8 and leans toward the under. He explains why a thin Padres offense paired with a strong bullpen makes the run line at plus 1 and a half more appealing than the total, touches on trade chatter involving Mason Miller, and references Xander Bogaerts hitting eighth in Monday's lineup as a sign of how limited San Diego's lineup currently is. At 4 33, the show shifts to Minnesota at Cleveland, where the Guardians moved from around minus 117 to as high as minus 144 after Jose Ramirez returned and Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers were given rest, and Griffin lays out why the under, both in the full game at 8 and in the first five innings at 4 and a half, is his favorite angle on the board given a rested Minnesota bullpen and a Cleveland lineup that isn't built to hit the ball out of the park in bunches. At 7 05, he previews Tampa Bay at Toronto, questioning whether Shane Bieber is really back to form after a serious arm injury even as the price on the Rays creeps from minus 103 toward minus 101, and he says he still views Tampa Bay as the better team even with its road struggles. At 8 37, Griffin covers a rescheduled game between Arizona and St. Louis, with Brandon Pfaadt starting for the Diamondbacks against Michael McGreevy, walking through Arizona's price moving from plus 113 to plus 107, McGreevy shortening toward minus 118, and a total that ticked up to 8 and a half, while explaining why he loves Arizona's offense but worries about a shaky bullpen and questions whether McGreevy's below average velocity can keep producing results. At 10 24, he closes the card with Kansas City at Detroit, where Randy Dobnak starts opposite a red hot Troy Melton, now a minus 193 favorite, and Griffin details a rough stretch for the Royals, who are missing Bobby Witt Jr. and top prospect Jac Caglianone after a rough defensive sequence in Wednesday's finale, while Salvador Perez keeps hitting home runs against the run of form. He leans toward the Royals' team total under given Melton's dominant season, though he flags Detroit's left handed power as a wild card. Griffin wraps the show by running through a pregame.com promo code, spelled out letter by letter as early 777, that saves 98 dollars on season long access to NFL and college football coverage beginning with the Hall of Fame Game on August 6th and running through the Super Bowl. He finishes with his official best bet of the day, the under in the Minnesota at Cleveland game, tying together the pitching matchups, bullpen usage, and early start context covered throughout the episode, and signs off by teasing a return the following night for Friday's full slate of games and more betting analysis from around the league.
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