Show notes
Munaf Manji and Dave Essler talk betting for Wednesday.
Munaf Manji and Dave Essler are back on the Straight Outta Vegas AM feed for a loaded Wednesday card that covers two NBA playoff Game 2s, a ten-game MLB slate, and the Framber Valdez meltdown that had the baseball world talking Tuesday night. Tuesday went one and one, the Lakers team total got there quietly, Cade Cavalli got roughed up, and Dave's Rangers first-five under died when Texas scored three in the top of the first, but April closed strong and the guys are right back at it. In the East, the New York Knicks host the Philadelphia 76ers for Game 2 at Madison Square Garden after a 39-point blowout in Game 1 where Jalen Brunson dropped 35 in 31 minutes, Mikal Bridges went 7 of 10 for 17, Karl-Anthony Towns went 7 of 11 for 17, and OG Anunoby was 7 of 8 for 18 points while the Knicks shot 51.4 percent from three. The line sits at Knicks minus seven and a half, the same number Philadelphia has been getting all postseason, and Dave argues the market is pricing in a bounce-back that is not coming, pointing to Karl-Anthony Towns as the matchup problem the Celtics never had to solve. Munaf's case is simpler: Jalen Brunson has scored 39, 47, 40, 41, and 35 in his last five playoff games against Philly, and DraftKings has him over 26.5 at minus 122, a number he cleared before halftime in Game 1. Brunson over is Munaf's best bet. In the West, Minnesota stole Game 1 in San Antonio 104-102 despite Victor Wembanyama posting 12 blocks in a record-setting performance, though Wembanyama went 5 of 17 from the floor and De'Aaron Fox added 5 of 14, with the two combining to shoot 10 of 31 from the field. The Spurs are nine and a half point home favorites for Game 2 with the total at 215 and a half. Dave leans over, citing the Spurs' 27 fast break points in Game 1, referee Scott Foster's historically friendly whistle, and the likelihood both teams shoot more efficiently from three. He also leans Minnesota with the points and identifies Dylan Harper, who went 7 of 13 for 17 with four assists in 29 minutes, as his preferred player prop target when the Wolves go to their bench. On the MLB side, Dave makes the Twins team total over four and a half his best bet of the day against Miles Mikolas, who has given up four, three, three, and four earned runs in his last four road starts and is walking batters at a concerning rate. Dave also targets the Diamondbacks on the run line against Paul Skenes, reading sharp money as the line compressed from minus 150 to minus 121 for Pittsburgh. Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers get a look, with Dave leaning under as the total climbs toward nine. The guys also unpack a developing Shohei Ohtani angle: in his last three starts where he pitched but did not bat, the Dodgers scored a combined two runs and lost all three games, making the other team on the run line a potential systematic edge moving forward. The episode wraps with the Framber Valdez situation, where the Tigers starter drilled Trevor Story with a 94 mph fastball immediately after allowing back-to-back home runs by Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu, clearing the benches at Comerica Park. Both managers condemned the act, Valdez claimed it was unintentional, and Dave made the case it fits a pattern. Use promo code BASES10 at Pregame.com for ten dollars off rest-of-May all access, every pick in every sport from your favorite pro through May 31st for just 89 dollars.
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