Security Dilemma

Latest Episodes:

Arms Control After New START with Ariel Petrovics Feb 24, 2026

Show notes

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, co-hosts A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay discussed the state of arms control after the expiration of New START, nuclear proliferation cascades, and whether sanctions can prevent nuclear proliferation with Dr. Ariel Petrovics. Dr. Petrovics is a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a visiting scholar at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies, and a research associate at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. She is also the co-editor of Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail, a new open-access volume that listeners can read here (https://direct.mit.edu/books/oa-edited-volume/6076/Atomic-BackfiresWhen-Nuclear-Policies-Fail).

Read her Quincy Institute brief on the challenges and opportunities for superpower nuclear cooperation here: https://quincyinst.org/research/prospects-and-problems-for-reinvigorating-superpower-nuclear-cooperation/

You can check out her Foreign Policy article on New START here: https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/23/us-russia-trump-putin-nuclear-arms-control-treaty-new-start-extension/

Listener Questions:

We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response.

Upcoming recordings include:

AMA- John Gay and A.J. Manuzzi
JQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

What Realism’s Critics Get Wrong with Patrick Porter

Assessing the Prospect of War with Iran with Rose Kelanic Feb 10, 2026

Show notes

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, co-hosts A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Dr. Rose Kelanic, Director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities about how the Trump Administration is addressing Iran policy. Dr. Kelanic spent 10 years teaching political science at the University of Notre Dame and Williams College prior to entering the policy world and is the author of Black Gold and Blackmail: Oil and Great Power Politics.

Listener Questions:

We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include:

AMA- John Gay and A.J. Manuzzi
JQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

What Realism’s Critics Get Wrong with Patrick Porter
How to Revitalize Arms Control with Ariel Petrovics

Material Support with Ashleigh Subramanian-Montgomery Feb 03, 2026

Show notes

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Allen Gay are joined by Ashleigh Subramanian-Montgomery, the Senior Director for Policy and Advocacy of the Charity & Security Network, a resource and advocacy center for nonprofit organizations to protect their ability to carry out effective programs that support peace and human rights, aid civilians in areas of disaster and armed conflict, and build democratic governance. Ashleigh’s work supports protecting civil society from the harmful impacts of counter-terrorism measures worldwide. In this episode, we discussed U.S. sanctions, how counter-threat finance laws impact NGOs, and more.

Listener Questions:

We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include:

AMA- John Gay and A.J. Manuzzi
JQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers
Iran Update with Rose Kelanic

What Realism’s Critics Get Wrong with Patrick Porter
How to Revitalize Arms Control with Ariel Petrovics

The Trump-Roosevelt Corollary with Dan DePetris Jan 27, 2026

Show notes

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Allen Gay are joined by Daniel DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities. They discussed the Trump Administration's Latin America policy in light of the operation that captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and reports that the Administration is seeking regime change in Cuba by the end of the year. Dan also has a new explainer out with Defense Priorities (https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/move-on-from-washingtons-outdated-cuba-policy/).

Listener Questions:

We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include:

AMA- John Gay and A.J. Manuzzi
JQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

What Realism’s Critics Get Wrong with Patrick Porter
How to Revitalize Arms Control with Ariel Petrovics

Special: "Beyond Vietnam" by Martin Luther King Jr. Jan 16, 2026

Show notes

In this special Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay discuss the 1964 Nobel Peace Prize recipient's most famous foreign policy speech, "Beyond Vietnam: A Time to Break Silence" (1967), in which Dr. King explains why he must speak out against the Vietnam War and why America needs a "revolution of values" to defeat the three interconnected perils of racism, militarism, and poverty. Listeners can read (https://www2.hawaii.edu/~freeman/courses/phil100/17.%20MLK%20Beyond%20Vietnam.pdf) and listen (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJhgXKGldUk) to the full speech online.

Additionally, the Society’s ⁠Strategic Leaders Fellowship⁠ is currently accepting applications through January 19th. In this program for mid-career foreign policy professionals, Strategic Leaders Fellows take part in private salon dinners with experts discussing topics like grand strategy, nuclear weapons, power projection, and European security, and participate in a day-long crisis simulation. The fellowship’s culmination is a trip to France and Belgium for an in-depth study of the First World War – its origins, conduct, and termination, and a closer look at the United States in the war. It’s a terrific, one of a kind program for any mid-career personnel interested in deepening their knowledge in grand strategy while connecting with likeminded professional peers.

Listener Questions:

AMA- John Gay and A.J. Manuzzi
JQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers
Sanctions with Ashleigh Subramanian-Montgomery
What Realism’s Critics Get Wrong with Patrick Porter

Venezuela Update with Chris Shell Jan 13, 2026

Show notes

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay were joined again by Chris Shell, a Fellow at the American Statecraft Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Dr. Shell researches how American communities view foreign policy issues, as well as issues related to Latin America and the Caribbean. He is also an alum of the Society’s Strategic Leaders Fellowship, which is currently accepting applications through January 19th. In this program for mid-career foreign policy professionals, Strategic Leaders Fellows take part in private salon dinners with experts discussing topics like grand strategy, nuclear weapons, power projection, and European security, and participate in a day-long crisis simulation. The fellowship’s culmination is a trip to France and Belgium for an in-depth study of the First World War – its origins, conduct, and termination, and a closer look at the United States in the war. It’s a terrific, one of a kind program for any mid-career personnel interested in deepening their knowledge in grand strategy while connecting with likeminded professional peers. Again, the deadline is January 19. For today’s business, In this episode, we discussed U.S. Venezuela policy in light of the Trump Administration’s capture of Nicolas Maduro and the reaction in the Caribbean.

Listener Questions:

We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include:

Special: Martin Luther King Jr's "Beyond Vietnam"
AMA- John Gay and A.J. Manuzzi
JQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers
Sanctions with Ashleigh Subramanian-Montgomery
What Realism’s Critics Get Wrong with Patrick Porter

The 2025 National Security Strategy Dec 16, 2025

Show notes

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay offered their reactions to the Trump Administration's new 2025 National Security Strategy (https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf). In this conversation, A.J. and John discussed the strategy's recommendations as they relate to (or conflict with) realism and restraint, whether this is still a primacist strategy, and how the strategy compares and contrasts with prior administrations' strategy documents.

Listener Questions:

We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include:

AMA- John Gay and A.J. Manuzzi

JQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers
What Realism's Critics Get Wrong with Patrick Porter

Nuclear South Asia with Sahar Khan Dec 09, 2025

Show notes

In this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Sahar Khan, an independent national security analyst who focuses on nonproliferation, strategic stability, counterterrorism, and crisis management in Southern Asia. Previously, Dr. Khan was the Deputy Director and Senior Fellow of South Asia at the Stimson Center, a Research Fellow in the Defense and Foreign Policy Department at the Cato Institute, and Managing Editor of Inkstick Media. Our conversation discussed regional dynamics and U.S. interests in South Asia, as well as South Asian nuclear programs.

Listener Questions:

Thinking About the National Security Strategy
AMA- John Gay and A.J. Manuzzi

JQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

What is an "America First" Nuclear Strategy? with Sumantra Maitra Nov 25, 2025

Show notes

In this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Dr. Sumantra Maitra about what an "America First" nuclear strategy might look like. Dr. Maitra is the Director of Research and Outreach at the American Ideas Institute and a Senior Fellow at the Center for Renewing America. He is also the author of The Sources of Russian Aggression. You can check out his article on the contours of an "America First" nuclear strategy here: https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2025/11/exploring-the-contours-of-an-america-first-nuclear-strategy/.

Listener Questions:

We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include:

AMA- John Gay and A.J. Manuzzi

JQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

Trading with the Enemy with Mariya Grinberg Nov 18, 2025

Show notes

In this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Mariya Grinberg about her new book Trade in War: Economic Cooperation Across Enemy Lines (https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501782442/trade-in-war/), why states may trade with their adversaries during wartime, and the relationship between economic interdependence and conflict.

Dr Grinberg is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at MIT. Her primary research examines why states trade with their enemies, investigating the product level and temporal variation in wartime commercial policies of states vis-a-vis enemy belligerents. Her broader research interests center on the question of how time and uncertainty shape the strategic decisions of states, focusing on order formation, military planning, and questions of state sovereignty.

Listener Questions:

We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include:

Nuclear Testing and South Asia with Sahar Khan
AMA- John Gay and A.J. Manuzzi

JQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

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